January 15, 2026 • 4 mins
Senior journalist at BusinessDesk discusses a buoyant start to 2026 for the primary sector.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right now. Let's check on that whether Riley Kennedy's down
there in Machua. I can get a Riley, how are you.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Very good afternoon? Have you knew you?
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Yeah? We near you to you sir. Look well, look,
it's been a bit of a buoyant start for the
old primary sector in some respects. I mean, not a
bad GDT result after a downward trend towards the end
of twenty twenty five, or sort of a win in
China for the beef and the old strong walls has
showed a few positive signs, as we heard earlier from
(00:27):
Rachel Sheer from PGG Wrightson's Walls. So may not bad
to start twenty six.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
That's been pretty good actually, And of course late last
year there was the Indian FDA, which you know, boyd
everyone's spirits going into Christmas. But I think everyone was
quite surprised with the GDT on last week or a
week before. I've been on holday times becomes one, but
everyone was sort of expecting at some point prices have
bottom out, but everyone was reasonably surprised that they jumped
(00:54):
so high, you know, the sixth of January whenever, it
was the most interesting part of that was of course
not Asia was still quite a big buy, but the
Middle East their buying. She nearly doubled from about eleven
to twenty one percent. But it was probably just a
it was a good confidence boost of that GDT just
you know, there'd been nine consecutive falls. Things findament's still
(01:15):
pretty good. Of course, you know there's that mainland money
that's coming, but just just a bit of a boost
was needed.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
I think, yeah, timely, I think right because of that
feeling we were starting to talk eleven dollars milk solids
and then you know, suddenly ten fifty ten, nine fifty. Yeah,
it was I think you're right, confidence boost to sort
of hype that things are sort of slowed down a
bit or stopped in their tracks.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Yeah, it was. It was obviously from TERI start of
the season with such a wide range, and there was
there was rested was going to go up, and there
was also quite a big risk it was going to
go down. But I think the fall came quite quickly.
I mean, the trend in the GDT was obviously going,
but then the milk pass was cut quite quickly, which
will take a lot of confidence out. But it's the
(02:01):
midpoint of correct, it's about nine dollars and nothing. Open
country is slightly hard and that on the on an average,
so I would I would expect it to maybe sit
there or go up a little bit more. You know,
they actually won't be that long and six months to
go unto the end of the season, so I know
it's a very scary thought, but considering us, you know,
(02:22):
I felt like it was we were just talking about
the opening milk pass really five minutes ago, but you know,
it's actually not that far to go into the end
of the season. Really.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
What's your prediction for twenty twenty six especially do you
think you know, farmers have obviously had to be pretty frugal,
pretty prudent in the last couple of years as they
as farmgate returns have increased, they put a bit aside.
Do you think they'll start start to spain.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah, I'd say for a long time. Actually, this year's
field Days is going to be quite interesting because they're
going to be quite a big capital return made from
from Frontira just prior to that. I think this year's
fielder will be quite a good indicator on how farmers.
I feel it was that last year's field does is brilliant.
You know, the vibe was great, but I don't think
people spend as much. But be interesting to see in
(03:06):
you know, in six months time, where the checkbook comes
out and who's buying what it field does or even
the regional field days and you know which will kick
off something. The south Old field does can't be fair
away from starting. And you got central districts, but those
will be really interesting to see what's being spent and
how much and of what.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, I was floating around a place where I shouldn't
have been because I really can't afford to be there.
That the good team down it matter to BMW's I said,
when do these farmers get this money, these dairy farmers,
when does that come through? There's sort of the sell
off money to the French. When do they get this
sort of well hopefully for some disposable sort of money
that they might buy a treat or two.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
It's a good question. Actually, it's all sort of up
in the year that the transition will take place in
the first half of this year, but the moving pretty quickly.
I I'd be surprised, wouldn't be surprised if it happened
in the next few months, but it's a vounterio signal.
But it all happened pretty quickly after that, So it
did in the first six you know, first half of
this year. But I would imagine around the autumn we
should start taking bets. I mean it's going to come actually,
(04:05):
but yeah, i'd imagine it'll be fairly quickly.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
A few more days and Motyaker is it?
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Riley?
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Then back into the to the busy old environment of
the Hero Business.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Disc Yes, I'm flying home on Sunday. It's been raining
here for the past three days, which meant I've been
working down here, but I've been attempting to try and
play golf and I haven't haven't managed to play for
the last couple of days. So the word is clearing
up now, so I might get out, you know, later
this afternoon. But home on Sunday, iron the shirts, and
back into the office on Monday
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Primarily right into it, righty, very good, Ridy Kennedy the
a Hero Business desc Priory Stick the Specialist, thank you
very much for joining us.
Right now. Let's check on that whether Riley Kennedy's down
there in Machua. I can get a Riley, how are you.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Very good afternoon? Have you knew you?
Speaker 1 (00:07):
Yeah? We near you to you sir. Look well, look,
it's been a bit of a buoyant start for the
old primary sector in some respects. I mean, not a
bad GDT result after a downward trend towards the end
of twenty twenty five, or sort of a win in
China for the beef and the old strong walls has
showed a few positive signs, as we heard earlier from
(00:27):
Rachel Sheer from PGG Wrightson's Walls. So may not bad
to start twenty six.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
That's been pretty good actually, And of course late last
year there was the Indian FDA, which you know, boyd
everyone's spirits going into Christmas. But I think everyone was
quite surprised with the GDT on last week or a
week before. I've been on holday times becomes one, but
everyone was sort of expecting at some point prices have
bottom out, but everyone was reasonably surprised that they jumped
(00:54):
so high, you know, the sixth of January whenever, it
was the most interesting part of that was of course
not Asia was still quite a big buy, but the
Middle East their buying. She nearly doubled from about eleven
to twenty one percent. But it was probably just a
it was a good confidence boost of that GDT just
you know, there'd been nine consecutive falls. Things findament's still
(01:15):
pretty good. Of course, you know there's that mainland money
that's coming, but just just a bit of a boost
was needed.
Speaker 1 (01:21):
I think, yeah, timely, I think right because of that
feeling we were starting to talk eleven dollars milk solids
and then you know, suddenly ten fifty ten, nine fifty. Yeah,
it was I think you're right, confidence boost to sort
of hype that things are sort of slowed down a
bit or stopped in their tracks.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Yeah, it was. It was obviously from TERI start of
the season with such a wide range, and there was
there was rested was going to go up, and there
was also quite a big risk it was going to
go down. But I think the fall came quite quickly.
I mean, the trend in the GDT was obviously going,
but then the milk pass was cut quite quickly, which
will take a lot of confidence out. But it's the
(02:01):
midpoint of correct, it's about nine dollars and nothing. Open
country is slightly hard and that on the on an average,
so I would I would expect it to maybe sit
there or go up a little bit more. You know,
they actually won't be that long and six months to
go unto the end of the season, so I know
it's a very scary thought, but considering us, you know,
(02:22):
I felt like it was we were just talking about
the opening milk pass really five minutes ago, but you know,
it's actually not that far to go into the end
of the season. Really.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
What's your prediction for twenty twenty six especially do you
think you know, farmers have obviously had to be pretty frugal,
pretty prudent in the last couple of years as they
as farmgate returns have increased, they put a bit aside.
Do you think they'll start start to spain.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Yeah, I'd say for a long time. Actually, this year's
field Days is going to be quite interesting because they're
going to be quite a big capital return made from
from Frontira just prior to that. I think this year's
fielder will be quite a good indicator on how farmers.
I feel it was that last year's field does is brilliant.
You know, the vibe was great, but I don't think
people spend as much. But be interesting to see in
(03:06):
you know, in six months time, where the checkbook comes
out and who's buying what it field does or even
the regional field days and you know which will kick
off something. The south Old field does can't be fair
away from starting. And you got central districts, but those
will be really interesting to see what's being spent and
how much and of what.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, I was floating around a place where I shouldn't
have been because I really can't afford to be there.
That the good team down it matter to BMW's I said,
when do these farmers get this money, these dairy farmers,
when does that come through? There's sort of the sell
off money to the French. When do they get this
sort of well hopefully for some disposable sort of money
that they might buy a treat or two.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
It's a good question. Actually, it's all sort of up
in the year that the transition will take place in
the first half of this year, but the moving pretty quickly.
I I'd be surprised, wouldn't be surprised if it happened
in the next few months, but it's a vounterio signal.
But it all happened pretty quickly after that, So it
did in the first six you know, first half of
this year. But I would imagine around the autumn we
should start taking bets. I mean it's going to come actually,
(04:05):
but yeah, i'd imagine it'll be fairly quickly.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
A few more days and Motyaker is it?
Speaker 2 (04:10):
Riley?
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Then back into the to the busy old environment of
the Hero Business.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Disc Yes, I'm flying home on Sunday. It's been raining
here for the past three days, which meant I've been
working down here, but I've been attempting to try and
play golf and I haven't haven't managed to play for
the last couple of days. So the word is clearing
up now, so I might get out, you know, later
this afternoon. But home on Sunday, iron the shirts, and
back into the office on Monday
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Primarily right into it, righty, very good, Ridy Kennedy the
a Hero Business desc Priory Stick the Specialist, thank you
very much for joining us.
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