June 15, 2026 • 5 mins
An independent economist offers his thoughts on Trump's peace deal, oil prices, inflation, interest and exchange rates, and why we should be keeping a keen eye on the US Federal Reserve.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, yesterday was a big day for Donald Trump. He
turned eighty, He had the UFC on the White House lawn.
But more importantly for the rest of the world, he
broke it a peace deal in the Middle East. What
might a lasting deal mean for us here in New
Zealand as farmers and business people. Let's ask independent economist
(00:21):
Cameron Bagriy.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, that's good news at face feeling subject to the
ceasefire holder. The biggest shoe out here is of the
nukes or by RAN's nuclear capability or not. That was
what they're after in the first place. They haven't got it.
That's subject to another sort of deal. But yeah, glass
are full, the moves being opened and it's not open yet,
(00:45):
but hopefully it will be open. We'll start to see
oil flow. That's had a pretty immediate impact on all prices.
All prices come down. That's a pretty major input cost
consumers for businesses out there. So it's good news, but
a lot of jamie in regard to whether this thing
actually holds together.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Yes, well I'm not holding the breath on that one either,
but yeah, all price I looked at Brent crude this morning.
It was sitting at about eighty bucks a barrel. US
peaked at over one hundred and twenty when all this
kicked off, So a falling all price surely is going
to have a positive effect on inflation, although we haven't
(01:23):
seen the peak of inflation yet in this country.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
No, we've seen the initial first round effect in regard
to by petrol prices, diesel prices, obviously starting to see
the second round effects by a transport cost because that
gets into food inflation. Fertilizer costs to creep into food inflation.
So hopefully those are one offs and what goes up
(01:47):
is going to come back down. We'll see a pretty
big rise obviously in the gym court a CPI number
which will be out in a month or so, and
hopefully that reverses somewhat in the September. We don't have
too much of it than what's called sticky inflation problem,
but most central banks around the globe, including the Reserve Bank,
are pretty alert to what's called sticky inflation. You know,
(02:08):
that's a third round effect where we just start to
see a little bit more of a flowing into the
broader economy. We hope that doesn't take place, but central
banks are certainly going to be pretty watchful over they're
coming for a few months, but very simple bank today
you'd be smiling, you'd be a lot more comfortable where
you were sort of two to three months ago or
two months ago or a month ago. Looking at oil
(02:29):
prices up around hauding twenty bucks a barrel, your all
prices eighty bucks a bear. It helps with the disinflation process.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
And next o see our announcement is due on July
the eighth. Everyone was picking we were going to get
twenty five basis point lift. Would this be enough to
halt that?
Speaker 2 (02:44):
No, I think they'll still follow through. Yeah, stepping back
from what's going on with or moves and hopefully you
know a deal have been done and we can sill together.
We motoring parlance, this economy should get now back on
State Highway one after being knocked off onto a bit
of a goat track for the past for two months.
But prior to for moves, it's been very clear and
(03:06):
the economic data that the New zeal On economy has
been on the improving side of the legion, and of
course that's been led by the rural regions, led particularly
by the South. Auckland and Wellington are still languishing out there,
so we're seeing a little bit more. We're seeing a
very from wantable quality recovery where it's earnings back. It's
not led by the born spin housing market, which is
(03:28):
what we've sort of seen historically. I still think the
OHA around two point two five percent as a bit
low from where it should be. Do I think the
OCI needs to go ramping back up aggressively? No, now
there is zero. Bank's probably over eased a little bit
by about fifty dass points in twenty twenty five. You
take that back, it's sort of coming. A few months you.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Talked about central banks around the world. The biggest of
the whole lot is the US Federal Reserve. Obviously what
they do with exchange rates will affect especially our current.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Yeah it does. Yeah, County is a two sided coin,
so we can look at the New Zealand side of
the equation growth, what the reserve bank is going to
be doing, commodity prices, et cetera, et cetera. But the
big boy in pound here literally is the US Federal Reserve.
And what we've seen in the United States is it
headline inflation has been moving up, but what's called core inflation,
which strips out food and energy. It has been tracking
(04:24):
around three percent. In the last couple of months, we've
seen pre inflation in the United States, they started to
tack up, and that's seen the market in the United
States still a bit of a flip flopp of YouTube.
Two to three months ago, the US financial markets were
saying the US Federal Reserve could be cutting rates by
the end of twenty twenty six. Well, the market is
now expecting the US Federal Reserve to be lifting infrastrates
(04:45):
before the end of twenty twenty six once, potentially twice.
What does it meant to the New Zealand dollar and
the New Zealand dollars had a couple of cracks that
you're trying to sort of break sixty cents and we
just can't sort of break sixty cents. And one of
the reasons we haven't been able to break sixty cents
because of those growing pats. The US Field Reserve is
going to be lifting infistrates and of course infestrates differ
each other. There are pretty big currencies around the world.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Well, I think we can live as an exporting nation
with a dollar under sixty US Since cam Bagrey, thanks
for some of your time. Really appreciate it well.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
The best, Jenny
Well, yesterday was a big day for Donald Trump. He
turned eighty, He had the UFC on the White House lawn.
But more importantly for the rest of the world, he
broke it a peace deal in the Middle East. What
might a lasting deal mean for us here in New
Zealand as farmers and business people. Let's ask independent economist
(00:21):
Cameron Bagriy.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Well, that's good news at face feeling subject to the
ceasefire holder. The biggest shoe out here is of the
nukes or by RAN's nuclear capability or not. That was
what they're after in the first place. They haven't got it.
That's subject to another sort of deal. But yeah, glass
are full, the moves being opened and it's not open yet,
(00:45):
but hopefully it will be open. We'll start to see
oil flow. That's had a pretty immediate impact on all prices.
All prices come down. That's a pretty major input cost
consumers for businesses out there. So it's good news, but
a lot of jamie in regard to whether this thing
actually holds together.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
Yes, well I'm not holding the breath on that one either,
but yeah, all price I looked at Brent crude this morning.
It was sitting at about eighty bucks a barrel. US
peaked at over one hundred and twenty when all this
kicked off, So a falling all price surely is going
to have a positive effect on inflation, although we haven't
(01:23):
seen the peak of inflation yet in this country.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
No, we've seen the initial first round effect in regard
to by petrol prices, diesel prices, obviously starting to see
the second round effects by a transport cost because that
gets into food inflation. Fertilizer costs to creep into food inflation.
So hopefully those are one offs and what goes up
(01:47):
is going to come back down. We'll see a pretty
big rise obviously in the gym court a CPI number
which will be out in a month or so, and
hopefully that reverses somewhat in the September. We don't have
too much of it than what's called sticky inflation problem,
but most central banks around the globe, including the Reserve Bank,
are pretty alert to what's called sticky inflation. You know,
(02:08):
that's a third round effect where we just start to
see a little bit more of a flowing into the
broader economy. We hope that doesn't take place, but central
banks are certainly going to be pretty watchful over they're
coming for a few months, but very simple bank today
you'd be smiling, you'd be a lot more comfortable where
you were sort of two to three months ago or
two months ago or a month ago. Looking at oil
(02:29):
prices up around hauding twenty bucks a barrel, your all
prices eighty bucks a bear. It helps with the disinflation process.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
And next o see our announcement is due on July
the eighth. Everyone was picking we were going to get
twenty five basis point lift. Would this be enough to
halt that?
Speaker 2 (02:44):
No, I think they'll still follow through. Yeah, stepping back
from what's going on with or moves and hopefully you
know a deal have been done and we can sill together.
We motoring parlance, this economy should get now back on
State Highway one after being knocked off onto a bit
of a goat track for the past for two months.
But prior to for moves, it's been very clear and
(03:06):
the economic data that the New zeal On economy has
been on the improving side of the legion, and of
course that's been led by the rural regions, led particularly
by the South. Auckland and Wellington are still languishing out there,
so we're seeing a little bit more. We're seeing a
very from wantable quality recovery where it's earnings back. It's
not led by the born spin housing market, which is
(03:28):
what we've sort of seen historically. I still think the
OHA around two point two five percent as a bit
low from where it should be. Do I think the
OCI needs to go ramping back up aggressively? No, now
there is zero. Bank's probably over eased a little bit
by about fifty dass points in twenty twenty five. You
take that back, it's sort of coming. A few months you.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Talked about central banks around the world. The biggest of
the whole lot is the US Federal Reserve. Obviously what
they do with exchange rates will affect especially our current.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Yeah it does. Yeah, County is a two sided coin,
so we can look at the New Zealand side of
the equation growth, what the reserve bank is going to
be doing, commodity prices, et cetera, et cetera. But the
big boy in pound here literally is the US Federal Reserve.
And what we've seen in the United States is it
headline inflation has been moving up, but what's called core inflation,
which strips out food and energy. It has been tracking
(04:24):
around three percent. In the last couple of months, we've
seen pre inflation in the United States, they started to
tack up, and that's seen the market in the United
States still a bit of a flip flopp of YouTube.
Two to three months ago, the US financial markets were
saying the US Federal Reserve could be cutting rates by
the end of twenty twenty six. Well, the market is
now expecting the US Federal Reserve to be lifting infrastrates
(04:45):
before the end of twenty twenty six once, potentially twice.
What does it meant to the New Zealand dollar and
the New Zealand dollars had a couple of cracks that
you're trying to sort of break sixty cents and we
just can't sort of break sixty cents. And one of
the reasons we haven't been able to break sixty cents
because of those growing pats. The US Field Reserve is
going to be lifting infistrates and of course infestrates differ
each other. There are pretty big currencies around the world.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Well, I think we can live as an exporting nation
with a dollar under sixty US Since cam Bagrey, thanks
for some of your time. Really appreciate it well.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
The best, Jenny
Popular Podcasts
Hey Jonas!
Hey Jonas! The official Jonas Brothers podcast. Hosted by Kevin, Joe, and Nick Jonas. It’s the Jonas Brothers you know... musicians, actors, and well, yes, brothers. Now, they’re sharing another side of themselves in the playful, intimate, and irreverent way only they can. Spend time with the Jonas Brothers here and stay a little bit longer for deep conversations like never before.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com