June 16, 2026 • 5 mins
Rabobank's GM of Country Banking comments on the bank's latest Rural Confidence Survey, which sees the Middle East conflict tempering farmer confidence but producers remaining upbeat about the agri sector outlook.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bruce Ware is the GM of Country Banking for Rabobank.
Great catch up with him at Field Days and we'll
talk about what a good vibe. There was a wee
bit later, but Bruce, I want to talk about your
latest joon court a farmer confidence survey, rural confidence survey.
I don't know how much it costs Rabobank to get
a corporate to write this survey or commission this survey
(00:21):
for you. I could have written it myself. Bruce, Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Your good afternoon, Jamie. Certainly not a surprise or unexpected
this survey. Yes, confidence was down a weebit thirty one
percent from last quarters to fourteen percent now, but that's look,
that's largely to do on the back of rising costs
in the unset and tea. What's happening in the Middle
(00:45):
East largely.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Yeah, well that's your headline Middle East conflict temps farmer confidence,
but producers remain upbeat on agrisector outlook. We certainly saw
that at Field Days when we're looking at farmers, those
were holding a negati of outlook on the agri economy.
It was pretty obvious that the main cause of concern
was rising input costs. Seventy four percent of them, Bruce,
(01:09):
But those who were taking a more optimistic outlook rising
commodity prices fifty five they're doing some heavy lifting there
and increasing demand thirty three percent with the reasons for optimism,
and that kind of sums up where we are at
the moment, good prices, cautiousness around what's happening geopolitically around
(01:29):
the world, and also cautiousness around the cost of farming.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Yeah, absolutely, Jamien. I think it sums it up well.
You know, there's plentiful farmers to be confident about, you know,
returns a solid largely sectors in great shape, but at
the same time is also ney to be cautious about too,
and I think that's exactly what this survey represents this
time round. Certainly, the positive ideots coming out of the
(01:56):
Middle East will help confidence. Like you say, as we
all know, there's plenty of water to go under that
bridge yet before we can say the situation is fully resolved.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Good to see sheep and beef farmers continue continuing. Should
I say to be the most optimistic.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Yeah, absolutely, Jamien. It actually just reflects the state of
the industry at the moment. You know, big demand for
a red meat protein. Good to see you all on
the app a lot more positivity there, so you certainly
see you know, she can be certainly on the front foot,
which is actually outstanding to see.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Farmers often have been guilty in the past. I'm not
so sure whether it's the case these days of capitalizing confidence.
If I can use that into land prices now, land
price expectations continue to be positive, with a third of
farmers expecting prices to increase over the coming twelve months
and less than one in ten expecting land prices to fall.
(02:52):
And I think one thing we've come to sea and
farming perhaps in the last decade especially is the fact
that farmers are buying farms or land on yield rather
than the prospect of capital gain, and that's how it
should be.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yeah, Look, there's certainly in good demand for quality, Jamie,
and that's certainly one thing we have seen. Farmers are
fairly happy to pay for good quality. Those properties that
are probably not that quality are probably still struggling for
that increase in value. But look, it probably just reflects
to that farmers wealth. They're confident, they're staying very pragmatic
(03:30):
and very cautiously optimistic. But again, you know, the property
property market is usually determine what happens over a spring,
what the situation or outlook will look like.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Then yes, and we'll all be holding our breath to
see what does come to pass the spring, especially with
the likes of fuel which is creeping down nicely and
fertilizer prices. I read a report on fertilizer prices Brusome
a bit like fuel is a price story rather than
a supply story. But a lot of that fertilizer that's
going to go on New Zealand farms this spring has
(04:04):
probably already been chucked on a boat and that's making
its way here, so it won't be cheap regardless of
what happens in the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
No, I think that's been really well flagged. You know,
fair costs are built into budgets. Right now we know
what we're going to have to pay largely. But on
the flip side, it's good to see there's still some
strength and commodity prices that are offset.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Hey, finally, Bruce Waar GM Country Banking for Rabobank give
the Field Days a mark out of teen.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Oh look, Jamie, I'll have to give it ten out
of ten. I've been going for a for a while now.
The way Kido certainly put on the weather, the vibe
was fantastic. People are really excited talking about the future.
Seeing a lot of young people coming coming through the
tent and seeing them excited about the future, certainly it's
(04:54):
quite inspiring. So you have to be a ten out
of ten.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
I want to share your sentiment there because I thought
a lot of young farm and couples were there and
that actually really bodes well for the future. Bruce Ware,
thanks for your time.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Thanks Jamie. Good to check
Bruce Ware is the GM of Country Banking for Rabobank.
Great catch up with him at Field Days and we'll
talk about what a good vibe. There was a wee
bit later, but Bruce, I want to talk about your
latest joon court a farmer confidence survey, rural confidence survey.
I don't know how much it costs Rabobank to get
a corporate to write this survey or commission this survey
(00:21):
for you. I could have written it myself. Bruce, Good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Your good afternoon, Jamie. Certainly not a surprise or unexpected
this survey. Yes, confidence was down a weebit thirty one
percent from last quarters to fourteen percent now, but that's look,
that's largely to do on the back of rising costs
in the unset and tea. What's happening in the Middle
(00:45):
East largely.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Yeah, well that's your headline Middle East conflict temps farmer confidence,
but producers remain upbeat on agrisector outlook. We certainly saw
that at Field Days when we're looking at farmers, those
were holding a negati of outlook on the agri economy.
It was pretty obvious that the main cause of concern
was rising input costs. Seventy four percent of them, Bruce,
(01:09):
But those who were taking a more optimistic outlook rising
commodity prices fifty five they're doing some heavy lifting there
and increasing demand thirty three percent with the reasons for optimism,
and that kind of sums up where we are at
the moment, good prices, cautiousness around what's happening geopolitically around
(01:29):
the world, and also cautiousness around the cost of farming.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
Yeah, absolutely, Jamien. I think it sums it up well.
You know, there's plentiful farmers to be confident about, you know,
returns a solid largely sectors in great shape, but at
the same time is also ney to be cautious about too,
and I think that's exactly what this survey represents this
time round. Certainly, the positive ideots coming out of the
(01:56):
Middle East will help confidence. Like you say, as we
all know, there's plenty of water to go under that
bridge yet before we can say the situation is fully resolved.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Good to see sheep and beef farmers continue continuing. Should
I say to be the most optimistic.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
Yeah, absolutely, Jamien. It actually just reflects the state of
the industry at the moment. You know, big demand for
a red meat protein. Good to see you all on
the app a lot more positivity there, so you certainly
see you know, she can be certainly on the front foot,
which is actually outstanding to see.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Farmers often have been guilty in the past. I'm not
so sure whether it's the case these days of capitalizing confidence.
If I can use that into land prices now, land
price expectations continue to be positive, with a third of
farmers expecting prices to increase over the coming twelve months
and less than one in ten expecting land prices to fall.
(02:52):
And I think one thing we've come to sea and
farming perhaps in the last decade especially is the fact
that farmers are buying farms or land on yield rather
than the prospect of capital gain, and that's how it
should be.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yeah, Look, there's certainly in good demand for quality, Jamie,
and that's certainly one thing we have seen. Farmers are
fairly happy to pay for good quality. Those properties that
are probably not that quality are probably still struggling for
that increase in value. But look, it probably just reflects
to that farmers wealth. They're confident, they're staying very pragmatic
(03:30):
and very cautiously optimistic. But again, you know, the property
property market is usually determine what happens over a spring,
what the situation or outlook will look like.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Then yes, and we'll all be holding our breath to
see what does come to pass the spring, especially with
the likes of fuel which is creeping down nicely and
fertilizer prices. I read a report on fertilizer prices Brusome
a bit like fuel is a price story rather than
a supply story. But a lot of that fertilizer that's
going to go on New Zealand farms this spring has
(04:04):
probably already been chucked on a boat and that's making
its way here, so it won't be cheap regardless of
what happens in the Middle East.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
No, I think that's been really well flagged. You know,
fair costs are built into budgets. Right now we know
what we're going to have to pay largely. But on
the flip side, it's good to see there's still some
strength and commodity prices that are offset.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Hey, finally, Bruce Waar GM Country Banking for Rabobank give
the Field Days a mark out of teen.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
Oh look, Jamie, I'll have to give it ten out
of ten. I've been going for a for a while now.
The way Kido certainly put on the weather, the vibe
was fantastic. People are really excited talking about the future.
Seeing a lot of young people coming coming through the
tent and seeing them excited about the future, certainly it's
(04:54):
quite inspiring. So you have to be a ten out
of ten.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
I want to share your sentiment there because I thought
a lot of young farm and couples were there and
that actually really bodes well for the future. Bruce Ware,
thanks for your time.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Thanks Jamie. Good to check
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