The Country 17/06/26: Mike McIntyre talks to Jamie Mackay

Jarden's Head of Derivatives comments on last night's GDT Auction (down 2.8%).  WMP -3.1%, SMP -3.6%, Butter -2.4% and Cheese -3.4%.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Mike McIntyre joins us from Jardin. He's the head of
the Rivet and he's got a fancy name like that.
We're going to have a look at last night's Global
Dairy Trade auction. Mike down two point eight percent, whole
milk powdered down three point one, skim three point six,
butt down two point four, cheese three point four. Should
we be worried about this as the second auction of

(00:20):
the new season?

Speaker 2 (00:21):
Good afternoon, Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. I don't think we
should be worried. I mean, obviously it's disappointing that it's
headed off in this fashion, but probably no surprise. And
we've seen international markets start to peel off. And then
also the pulse of end of last week was probably
even a little bit more more disastrous than the result

(00:41):
we got last night, so you know, on balance, it's
probably better than what it could have been.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
The people are talking about the correlation between milk prices
and the price of oil. Now that we might get
peace in the Middle East, is that a bad thing
for his zelandairy farmers? A bit of a facetious question there,
but what do you buy into the correlation argument?

Speaker 2 (01:00):
I mean, obviously oil is the keen commodity, so everything
does follow or does have some sort of correlation to
that number. I think from a New Zealand perspective, obviously
the freeing up of the streets is one thing, and
obviously there'll be some disruption around that, but just being
able to get out things like fertilize where a lot
of New Zealand product comes from that part of the world.
So you know, obviously things are going to be tied

(01:20):
through to Christmas as it was, and so this may
give us a bit of a bit of air to
breathe as we go through what could well be a
tricky spring in some a period at the back end
of the season.

Speaker 1 (01:31):
Basically the world is a wash with milk. Like we're
up four and a half percent and annual production. I
think the rest of the world's chugging along quite nicely
as well.

Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, and obviously our home market being China, hasn't really
turned up in either of the two previous events as well,
so that's again they're probably another concern something that we
need to watch closely for. Typically they wouldn't be there
in great numbers at this time of the year, but
it would certainly give us greater confidence if they were
to set up, because, as you say, there's a lot
of milk that we need to get it off, both
from the back end last season and with all likelihood

(02:04):
we're going to start pretty well again next season. Is
more this season as well.

Speaker 1 (02:07):
We will get a bit of a helping hand, perhaps
from Donald Trump in the US Federal Reserve. The exchange
rate looks like it's anchored below sixty US sins.

Speaker 2 (02:17):
Yeah, I think obviously half the currency is already locked
in for the season ahead, and so that's probably a
good thing given we've been But you know, as I said,
would be really good to see some good activity on
the market, and last night's result was just that touch
to supporting got on you.

Speaker 1 (02:31):
Mike McIntyre from Jarden, There might go to guy when
it comes to GDT auctions.