The Country 17/07/26: Steve Wyn-Harris talks to Jamie Mackay

This Central Hawke’s Bay sheep and beef farmer has been a long-time observer of weather patterns. Today, he gives us his take on the prospect of a super El Niño.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Here's a man who's had great success in rural broadcasting.
Steve Van Harris, Central Hawks Bay owner, co owner of
Central FM, runs the Cockies Hour every Thursday. Hey Steve,
good afternoon. You've been doing some homework on the prospects
of a super al Nino.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
Yeah, well that's what the climate scientists are calling us.
And I've heard you've had some feedback people saying that
you're alarmist. And I wrote a piece for my son
and his mates actually just given the experience I've had
with these climate cycles over nearly fifty years. And it
started back in eighty two eighty three, and it started
blowing in September and it blew. It cuts off right

(00:39):
through that spring and summer, right into the autumn and
didn't stop until about May. It was incessant, and it
drove men and beast crazy. And we've got a big
lake near us called Lake far Tuma, and I went
down and walked across it, and you hadn't been able
to do that before. Since there's been other droughts with
less rain. This one had a lot of abafo transpiration
which we often overlooked, and these other droughts were still

(01:04):
very mucky. You couldn't walk across it or anything. So
it was a unique drought, and they started, the climate
scientist start talking about this thing called El Nino, that
this was an al Nino event. So that was the
first that I and probably many others had ever heard
of these events. And it was compounded that drought by
the fact that we were under molding subsidies which were
encouraging people not to do stock, you know, to have
stock on a balance state. So another good reason why

(01:26):
you shouldn't have subsidies anyway, So I came to the
belief that al Nino dad Larnina good. That was disproved
quite quickly in eighty eight eighty nine when we had
a very nasty lar Nina drought. So we're not talking
about al Nino and Larnina. It's and the Southern Oscillation Index.
The Southern Oscillation Index is a measure of the difference
and pressures from Darwin across the Tahiti. Anyway, this current

(01:48):
one is down to minus twenty seven now and on
the Southern Oscillation Index, and that's the last and twenty years.
And in the last fifty years, there's just been three
other events, including the eighty two eighty three one I've
talked about that have been similar sort of negative in
the Southern Oscillation index, and that's nineteen ninety eight nine

(02:11):
and that was a very bad drought. But there was
another one when there was in two thousand and five
where there was no drought. And we've had about five
bad La Nina droughts in about four bad our Nino droughts,
so you know they are equally as dangerous. It's about
the depth of the Southern Oscillation index. You know how
far away it goes from neutral. That is the reason.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
You know. Okay, Steve, and people can read all about
it because you've done You've got some wonderful graphs and
you've explained all those dates. And just you mentioned the
nineties just by memory, what was that really bad one
in Marlboro? That was about what ninety seven ninety eight?
Was it?

Speaker 2 (02:48):
That's correct?

Speaker 1 (02:49):
Yeah, that was an our Nino drought though, wasn't it.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
Yes, Yes, you're being on right.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
That's the one our old mate Doug avery At forced
him or it made him change his farming practices and
become the resilient farmer.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Well, I think eighty two eighty three changed out practices dramatically.
You know, we had probably ninety percent capital stock. I'm
just a rule of fun, but a large amount of
capital stock. And we learned quickly to get more trading stock,
have had more flexible systems, and each of the droughts,
you know, that's sort of ten droughts in my forty years,
so won every four years, we're able to do one. Actually,

(03:23):
he teachers you something every time, but then you know
you're an old guy like me, sort of disappearing from
the stage exit. So that's why I write that piece
really because there's some learnings there.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
In terms of state, Steve, you're not allowed to use
learnings on the show. It's not a word, okay, whatever,
So you can use lessons if you want.

Speaker 2 (03:41):
Well, yeah, you could use it. It's all show. You
could use any words you want, Joe, Well.

Speaker 1 (03:45):
It's our show, Steve, because it's broadcasting on Central FM
as well. Look, and once again we're going to publish
this chane or do it very shortly. But what is
your prediction or prognosis or whatever the word is for
this season? And you know, I'm not being alarmist about
a super al Nino, but when people like Brandolino and
that are saying this is possibly the worst one, potentially

(04:08):
the worst one ever. What's your advice. You've been around,
you've been doing this for forty forty five years.

Speaker 2 (04:14):
Well let's hope it's not the worst one forever. Because
this data set goes back to eighteen seventy six and
then eighteen ninety six and nineteen oh five it went
to minus forty and eighty to eighty three. One was
in the minus thirty area. So I think it's about probability, Jamie.
There's no doubt that this is turning into a significant
al nino. But as I've explained that, there have been

(04:34):
bad al ninos and bad Larnina's where no drought came.
And in fact, there was one famous one where I
helped organize a field day at Pokawa here in Hooks
Bay because it was a very dry spring it was
an al nino. We got the climate scientists down and
we could not hear them for the rain on the
roof of the tent. It was to retial. Everyone we
all thought it was a great joke. You know, if

(04:55):
you've got a big drought, to have a drought fieldway
and break it Unfortunately, I'd already these stopped a head
of the curve because it had been dry and I
was expecting a drought, and it rained. It rained all summer,
and when I remonstrated with the climate scientists, they said, Steve,
one and four o on eenos can be very wet.
So in the end, you've got to be aware of
this climate science cycle. But you know, we won't know

(05:18):
until it happens what its effects are. And of course
there are other things called the Indian die pole and
the Southern there's another one down there Antarctic, and then
there's climate change, so these cycles may behave differently.

Speaker 1 (05:30):
So all right, Steve, that's a bit of a I
just need to keep moving on. Hey, look, thank you
very much for your time. We will publish this because
you've gone to a lot of effort, and it's a
lot of effort to write a message for your son Jason.
You could have just wandered down in total.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
Yeah, I mean, just the you know, the probability is
probably higher for a drought, but it's not necessarily going
to be one. Just remain flexible and keep pulling levers
if you need to.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
Good on you, Hey, great to catch up Steve really
appreciate and your story about the drought field Day reminds
me of the drought shout we did in the Ribsdyle
Pub in two thousand and four, very very dry season.
Guess when the drought broke that night. Yeah, see you later.

Speaker 2 (06:12):
Thank you doing it too much.

Speaker 1 (06:13):
He does a good job, Steve. When Harris