The Country 18/07/25: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

Earth Sciences New Zealand’s principal scientist comments on the unwanted prospect of more rain for the inundated Tasman/Nelson region.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
I don't think Nickelback with that bad really. Michelle's shaking
her head again. Chris Brandolino, I was going to say
from newa but he's got a new name, Earth Sciences,
New Zealand. Were you a Nickelback fan, Chris, let me
turn your fader up. Yeah, I can live with a
bit of nickel fel Yeah. Okay, you know.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Do you know how they got their name Nickelback?

Speaker 1 (00:18):
No tell me.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
I believe one of the band members is working in
a coffee shop, and I think in the States, and
oftentimes because of the price of a popular coffee or whatever,
it'll be five cents change to the customer and here's
your Nickelback.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
Well, what a great story, the story behind the making
of a great band. I'll get in trouble for that one.
Dares will probably rip into me for that one as well.
We are going to talk very quickly because I haven't
got much time that I've wasted too much time getting
stuck into Dares. Sorry Dares, but it cuts both ways.
I just want to talk to you about that, especially
that the Tasman Nelson region forecast in the future of

(00:58):
more rain events for them. It's so disheartening. Watching what
they've gone through and the fact that they could have
another major reihin event. Please tell me you foolcasters have
got it wrong.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
Well, we've been working with met Service and this, I've
been briefing MPI and the likes and LOO. If the
good news is at the next seven to maybe ten days,
we'll say at least a week very dry, hardly any rain,
So that's really good news. They're not so good news
as you were talking about. There are some pretty I guess,
reliable indications that as we emerge into the last we'll

(01:32):
call it the last few days of that final week
of July, so you know, twenty seventh, twenty eighth, twenty ninth,
somewhere around there, that'll likely be a time when we'll
start to see low pressure emerging in the Tasman and
if that happens, it'll tap into tropical moisture send it
our way. So yeah, there is at now I would
describe it as elevated odds for a significant rain late

(01:54):
July into early August. Now exactly where I mean, it's
too far away, but certainly the top of the South Island.

Speaker 1 (02:00):
During that conversation, Hey, what other regions need to look
out for greater than average rain For instance, Southland, my
home pitch is enjoying a wonderful winter thus far. But
I see they're on the right fa Highland average rainfall
as well.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Yeah, well for the next through September the season on
Climate Outlook, we're highlighting the top of both islands, so
the Waikato, Baya plenty Auckland, Northland and the top of
the South Island. Those are the areas most likely to
have above normal rainfall. It's actually worked out that way.
All other areas have above normal rainfall. Lean we're not
quite a bit of uncertainty, so we're saying normal or

(02:36):
above normal and actuality, the west of the South Island,
including lovely Southland, we're thinking normal or below normal rainfall.
Now keep in mind, even normal or below it doesn't
mean it won't rain, just means that rainfall is expected
to be where it should be or less than it
should be. So a wetter than usual period through the
end of September looks pretty darn unlikely for the likes

(02:58):
of Southland, Interior Ota as well as the west of
the South Island. So I think they'll get some rain
maybe in that period. Late in July, but for the
next seven to ten days it looks pretty dry there.
And going farther beyond that, Jamie, the west of the
South Island, including Southland in the Lower South Island, that's
an area we're going to have to watch for dryness

(03:19):
as we work through spring. So we're going pretty far
out now working through spring and for the rest of
the calendar year. We're expecting more east to northeast winds
and if that eventuates, that does not favor rainfall, so
that could be something that could come back to bite
us later this calendar.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
Okay, you can hear nickelback. Time to go. Thank you.
Chris Brandolino from Earthbodi Z and Z