June 3, 2026 • 40 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Shane Jones, Jen Corkran, Andrew Gibson, Chris Russell, and Simon Butler.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch you're the latest from the Land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Farmland's advice you can
trust products, you can count on.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Preser lock up, can't at you on my mind? Off
my mind?
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Lord, No, I tried a million times, a million times.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Oh why don't you? Why dont you just let me go?
Speaker 4 (00:29):
Good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie McKay.
The show is brought to you by Isuzu and Farmlands.
Looking forward to broadcasting next week Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
From the Farmland site, he one to eight at Field Days.
A lot of water to go under the bridge. Between
now and then we're going to head up to Marsden Point.
(00:51):
Shane Jones is waiting on the end of the phone.
I think he's up there for a bit of a
photo opportunity an election year. We'll find out what he's
been up to and why have there been six animal
welfare complaints lodged with MPI after he cradled a crayfish
in its final hours in Parliament. Only the Prince of
(01:11):
the Provinces can pull that sort of stuff off. Jen
Corkran was Rabobank's senior animal protein analyst. They've just come out.
In fact, it's not even out. We're previewing the June
Agri Business Monthly and it's very much it's very much
a good news bad news scenario. Good news on the
income side of the ledger, bad news on the cost
(01:33):
side of it. Andrew Gibson, we're heading to Taranaki there
will tell you what a cow's worth a fortune to
be perfectly honest. Chris Russell's our Ossie correspond that we're
going to catch up with him and talking about cows.
What does a super al neeno mean for a dairy cow.
We're staring down the barrel of one of those. Apparently
we'll tell you before the end of the hour. But
(01:54):
up next that's Shane Jones at Marsden Point.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Can't you what can't you just let me.
Speaker 4 (02:11):
Kicking off the country today live from Marsden Point, where
he's watching a shipload of diesel being unloaded. I think
is New Zealand's natural answer to the shortage of natural gas,
because this man amids plenty of it. I say that
in Jess Shane Jones, Prince of the Provinces, because when
you're not at Marsden Point. You are cradling crayfish in Parliament.
(02:34):
Talk to me about the diesel.
Speaker 5 (02:36):
Hi, I'm up at Marsden Point. As you know, I
found the money to recommission one hundred million liter tank.
All of these great assets were basically degraded by Jasinda
and Meghan Woods, the worst politician from an energy perspective
ever to existed in New Zealand. But look, we do
(02:58):
need additional storage for fuel. That ship is literally on
its way. I'm here because the recommissioning is over. It's
ready to rock and roll. I wanted to ensure that
I have a photo opportunity because we're also setting up
a special economic zone. According to my leader, after we
(03:20):
enjoy the fruits of victory at the next election, God willing,
And hey, I should deserve some of the some of
the credit for having saved a small part of Marsden
Point refinery.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
And it sounds like a photo opportunity an election year
for me. Hey, just before I forget, you are leading
one of the debating teams at Field Days next week
at the big fundraiser for the Rural Support Trust. It's
the rural industry leaders debate and let me loock who's
in Because do you know anything about this? Has anyone
told you you're doing this?
Speaker 5 (03:57):
I am nothing but a dutiful sevant of the Caucus
of New Zealand. First, I do what I'm told. But
any opportunity to shine in front of you, seize at
any opportunity.
Speaker 4 (04:07):
Okay, you Sue's Redmain who was very good in the
same debate last year, and Jessica much McKay. There's a name,
a blast from the past in one team, and I
think Karen macinnolty's leading the other team and he's got
to radar and Hamish McKay my offside to hear from
the country. So I reckon there could be some good
barbes flying, especially between you and Kiaren.
Speaker 5 (04:29):
Oh, don't worry about that. He's a bookie, as you know.
Cut his teeth on calling the second or third leg
of the race. There at Alice Lee or whatever's left
at Tohidi Niko.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Yeah, hopefully you turn up. Apparently you were asked last year,
but you were a no show.
Speaker 5 (04:45):
No no no, no, no no no. My wife has
dedicated several days of me at Mystery Creek, and I
want everyone to remember I found the money to help
with the irrigation and the wastewater. Not that I'll be
not that I'll be likened to wastewater when I turn
up this year for the big jamboree for the farmers
at Mystery Creekment. There was a bit of dough needed
to sort out the infrastructure, and the Prince of the Provinces,
(05:08):
the caretaker of the infrastructure fund, delivered for you cockies
there in Hamilton.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
Six animal welfare complaints have been lodged with the Ministry
of Primary Industries after Shane Jones. That's you brought a
live crayfish to Parliament. You claimed that you were simply
cradling the crayfish in its final hours.
Speaker 5 (05:32):
I mean, what the hell's wrong with this country? Made
I get given a koh by the Naito because I'm
the best fisheries minister that anyone can remember, way back
since nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Pay do you do you realize that's quite a trumpy
and sort of commentary on yourself the best fisher fishing
minister ever.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
Well, I can't help but claim credit for things that
have mutted about me in dark recesses of public bars
on the South Island. And look at this it seemed
to me that it was a massive cray It was
an example of my stewardship and how I'm regarded in
the South Island. Look, I couldn't take it into parliament.
Jerry Brownie would have confiscated and consumed it. And I
(06:14):
just didn't know that. A whole lot of people with
nothing better to do with start scribbling letters to MPI
who technically worked for me. Some of them do and
they have to now investigate with and I've broken the law.
I don't think I have. And by the way, it
entertained a hell of a lot of people, both in
the media. I mean someone tried to pat. It shows
(06:34):
how few of these woke riddle journalists understand it. You
don't pat a crayfish. It can actually use its barbs
and bite you, almost god, bite you, pinch you. It
went in the pot, mate, and it satisfied the pookle.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Well, I was going to say, I was going to
ask that question. You've answered it. Did the crayfish come
to a sticky end? Yes, it did, just a couple
to finish on. Actually, I'm going to be talking to
Jen Corchran from Rabobanks shortly on the Country and the
RABO Research team, their international team, have come out with
a rather pessimistic baseline forecast for the Strait of her
(07:07):
Moves to remain closed until September. They're also picking that
the forecast price for a barrel of oil will be
one hundred and twenty in Q three one hundred dollars
in Q four. That's bad news if that was to
come to pass.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
Yeah, Look, there's so many models and there's so much speculation.
There's two ways to respond to this issue. Are we
going to suffer a crisis of physical scarcity or is
it just going to be an ongoing price issue. We've
been told that will continue to gain access to fuel,
(07:43):
but the price is going to be the problem. And
you know as well as I do, the price does
end up destroying demand. But Mate, every time we think
there's a glimmer of hope, then there's a new tweet
and I have to recalibrate what we've planned on. Not flash.
But you know, we're at the end of the railway
line and I say to your cockies and the people listening,
(08:06):
and they're in their thousands, hundreds of thousands, that we're
doing everything we can to maintain supply to New Zealand,
but we don't have a refinery. We have few options
and over time we're going to have to lessen our
demand on imported fuel. But in the short term we've
got to manage our way through this FIESCA.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Have you and Winston never thought of a bit of
a bit of nuclear power? Perhaps?
Speaker 6 (08:30):
Well?
Speaker 5 (08:30):
We took a remit to our party conference whether or
not we should explore and start a conversation about these small,
modular options for nuclear fusion. There's a difference between fusion
and fission, and we did allocate some money about thirty
million or the blessings of our cabinet. There's a wee
(08:53):
initiative being pursued by a brilliant young physicist there in
Wellington and he's seeking to, I guess bust open a
new frontier of energy in New Zealand using nuclear technology.
But it's some way off. The remit didn't actually find
a great deal of traction, but it's not as if
we were afraid to open up the discussion that was
(09:16):
at our last party conference. But there doesn't seem to
be a great deal of appetite amongst garden Brieighty qwis
for adding nuclear technology to the options to generate cheap
energy in New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Shane j Ownes live from Marsden Point. The greatest minister
of fisheries ever. He's a beautiful minister of fisheries. Thanks
for your time.
Speaker 5 (09:38):
See you, buddy, Bye bye.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Yes, it was rather Trumpian, wasn't it. Thank you, Shane.
I see Trump talking about Trump is up to it again.
Trade minister told McLay says, no one's happy with Donald
Trump's latest tariffs. So if you haven't caught up on
this one, it came out earlier this morning. The Trump
Administration's announced a new twelve point five percent tariff for
(10:02):
dozens of countries, including US here in New Zealand, accusing
US of failing to stop force labor. Rich. Isn't it
coming from the United States of America? The place runs
on slave labor, immigrant labor. Todd McClay says most countries
also face new tariffs for other reasons. He told Heather
(10:23):
duplici Ellen earlier this morning that he's been in meetings
with international counterparts in Paris and everyone's on the same page.
He says, there isn't anything saying those new tariffs are
a good thing. There isn't anyone should I say saying
the new tariffs are a good thing as they create uncertainty,
affect their exporters and create added costs. The guys a nutjobbed. Seriously,
(10:48):
it's just one hit after another. Up next right, This
is sort of the good news bad news part of
the show. Today a Rabobank. It's not even released yet.
This is a preview of it. I think it goes
to press tomorrow. The June Agri Business monthlyy look the
outlook for dairy, beef and sheep. The commodity outlooks very good.
(11:10):
The problem we have is the cost of farm inputs,
the fact that interest rates are going up, and obviously
while the strait of her mouse stays largely shut blocked off,
the cost of oil and freight is going to remain high.
In fact, Rabobank have been crunching the numbers on when
(11:31):
that strait could possibly open. We'll discuss that with Jen
Corchran from Rabobank. Up next on the country.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
We were good.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
We were good kind of dream the can't be so.
Speaker 4 (11:59):
Every month Rabo Bank puts out an Agri Business Monthly Report.
I just go straight to the summary page because it
tells me all I need to know and it's all
on one page. Can't beat that. Do you know what,
Jen Corkran, who's the senior animal proteins analyst for Rabobank,
you know what frightens me the most about this report.
You guys at Rabo Research have changed your baseline forecast
(12:22):
for the Strait of Muz to remain closed until September,
and you've raised your Q three and Q four oil
price forecast to one hundred and twenty and one hundred
dollars per barrel, respectively. Gee, that's grim who wrote this
for you?
Speaker 5 (12:38):
Was it?
Speaker 4 (12:39):
My friend Michael every the global strategist.
Speaker 7 (12:42):
Hi, Jamie, And yes, you know we have this global
team that updates a lot of these forecasts and live
right in this world, right So we've got Mike Everry,
who's definitely one of the key ones here and who
is one of the main people who've come up with
sort of our current baseline view, which was updated. We
we sort of were hoping or or ahead of you
that the straight might start to reach sort of normal
(13:05):
opening levels in that late majorly dune period. But having
hit that, re evaluated and you know, the Rubber Research
view now assumes this strait is likely to remain out
of normal operation until around September, so that really pushes
things out. And I think it's just important for us
to have a view on what we think is going
to happen. And we hear talks of these deals and
(13:26):
you know this and that and back and forward, but actually,
at the end of the day, there's no real solution
happening right now. There's still very few ships and making
it through and this is where we sit, and that
will push oil prices higher as we move through the
if this space case kind of unfolds as we see.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
It, well, considerably higher because last time I had a lock,
Brent Krube was trading in the nineties, I think, so
to get up to one hundred and twenty in Q
three is a bit of a concern. Let's hope, Michael
every my favorite alarmist Jen Corchran, has that wrong. Because
here's another one, and this is probably a guy in Sydney,
Ben Pickton, who does your foreign exchange and interest rate forecasting.
(14:06):
You're forecasting twenty five points rate hike at the next
meeting in July. That would be no surprise, Yeah.
Speaker 7 (14:15):
No surprise for most people, I think, Jamie, and it
was really interesting to hear right that we had that
three and three split in terms of the decision on
the day, and that that was sort of vocalized out,
and it really does suggest that the direction of Trevor,
even within some of the commentary that came out from
the other NST after that. So I think that one's
reasonably firm, I guess in terms of the potential view
(14:38):
and unsurprising unfortunately, just given what is going on globally,
even though we can't control it, we're trying to kind
of control that future inflationary pressure a lot further down
the road, I think.
Speaker 4 (14:49):
With this one more to look at on the debit
side of the Ledger before we get to the good news,
which is the credit side of the ledger. Farm inputs
no surprise here. We've talked about fuel prices, fertile ditto.
Farm inputs across the board all have a fuel component
in them. They will stay up. Okay, that's the bad news.
The good news is when we look at the prospects
(15:10):
for dairy, beef and sheep in your Agribusiness or June
Agribusiness monthly, it's all pretty positive. I'll leave the dairy
because it's not your absolute area of expertise. You are
the red meat gal. Can I say that Jen at Rabobank,
you're the expert in the field there. How good's that looking?
Speaker 7 (15:27):
It's looking good, isn't it?
Speaker 5 (15:28):
Jamie?
Speaker 7 (15:28):
And I do spend most of my day to day
sort of on that animal protein red meat side from
New Zealand. And it's wonderful to see.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
You know.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
I think we've talked.
Speaker 7 (15:37):
We talked a couple of years here and we were like,
you know, six, sevens and eights probably were some of
the frontline numbers that we were speaking. I think they
might have even been a five at one point Jamie.
But you know, if we're looking at what are we
looking at? Nine to tens, elevens, tens elevens, twelve potentially
into the spring and some in terms of some of
these front farm gate price numbers. And this is really
(15:57):
good to see, and it is just showing that that
some very strong fundamentals despite all the messy Bible situation,
there's some really strong fundamentals when it comes to that
supply and demand situation. And it's very much a supply
story that's kind of keeping a floor in these prices
in the floor is pretty high, and we're actually starting
to see that up tick now as we head into
the beginning of winter, so more room to move I
(16:20):
think upwards. And the fundamentals in terms of that protein
demand globally for our wonderful products that doesn't have an
ingredients list is at the top of the menus at
the moment, I think for a lot of people.
Speaker 4 (16:31):
Yeah, we had a guy called Simon Quilty. Do you
know him? He was at the Beef and Lamb New
Zealand conference in christ Church and he's been spouting twelve
dollars in excess of twelve dollars for lamb in excess
of ten dollars for beef for the new season. I
hope he's right on that one. Jen Corchoran, Hey, thanks
for some of your time. You can read more about
it in the June Agribusiness Monthly Report on the rabobank website.
(16:54):
See you at field Days.
Speaker 8 (16:55):
See you so Jamie.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
Thank you, Jen twenty five to twelve. Some of your
text feedback. Our text numbers five, double O nine if
you want to get a hold of us. This is
from Kristin regular Texter always enjoy Kristen's contribution to the show.
Kristin writes, Donald Trump and his entourage are a fickle mob.
(17:19):
That's one way of describing them, Kristen, that have caused
no end of chaos around the world. I think he
has actually to be perfectly honest. But anyhow, we'll see
what happens. I hope, I hope Rabobank's wrong, because this
is good to remember that Michael every was one of
the guys who wrote this during Agribusiness Monthly Report when
(17:41):
it came to the Strait of a Moose. So just
repeating what Jen said there before. Rabo Research has changed
its baseline forecast for the Strait and they're going to
say it's going to remain closed until September. They've raised
their Q three and Q four oil price forecasts to
one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel for Q three,
(18:02):
one hundred for Q four. I think we're sitting in
the nineties, as I said at the moment, So look,
that's not good news. Let's hope they're wrong on that one.
Up next, the price of a dairy Cow. It might
surprise you. We're heading to Taranaki next.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Fuck excited grab but then remembered him.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
Bowers my names. I came in like good for the
second time today on the country. Let's talk ball. You've
already heard from Shane Jones. He is full of it,
very entertaining. This bloke might be a bit more Circumspector's
(18:48):
name is Andrew Gibson. He's the area livestock manager and
auctioneer in the Taranaki region for PGG rights and of
course as the ball selling season we're shifting lots of
dairy cows as well. Hey Andrew, are you a Shane
Jones fan?
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Hey, Jamie, Yeah I am. Actually I don't mind the
politicians that ripplyn and tell the truth, so most of
the time he's pretty good. And yeah, I don't have
to call the light crayfish in Parliament was a good idea.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
Well, it wasn't for the crayfish. It was for Shane.
He reckoned. He got it down his gob before Jerry
brownly hat it. That would be a battle of two
big men. Okay, I want to start because Taranaki along
with the white cattle. Although I might get hung and
drawn and caught it in Southland and Canterby for saying that,
But they you're the traditional dairying province now at this
time of the year. Of course, we had moving day
(19:38):
or weekend or week just past. There's a lot of farmers,
sheer milkers changing jobs, changing farms, and a lot of herds,
dairy cow herds changing ownership. Are they like gold? What
do you have to pay for a decent dairy cow
these days?
Speaker 2 (19:54):
It's been a big, big mirror of transactions, a lot
of movement around the place. And you know, most of
the cows and the paddock were making between twenty eight
and so the thirty one hundred and paddock sales, but
the auctions have been I've ticked along a lot better
with people picked through and the carving dates and breeding
worths and p w's and productions. So yeah, there's there's
(20:15):
been a huge amount of transactions and it's gone so
smoothly that really with the fuel price and the fairy
sort of prices jumped up, but everything went smooth. With
the weather a month of May was is so beautiful,
so it all ended up being okay.
Speaker 6 (20:30):
So that was good.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
Lots of farms changing hands in Taranaki.
Speaker 6 (20:35):
Yeah, took them to the Rabobank team the other day.
And they were saying that there's one hundred and four
sales over four hectares, and they were saying that there's
been the fifty four of farm transactions recorded in Taraniki
this season. So good, good, really good to see a
lot of young guys ripping into it again, which three
years ago I was probably pretty concerned about the amount
(20:57):
of young people exiting the industry. But the future look good.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
So the young guys are getting back in and having
a crack at buying some nice farms, which is good
to see and.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
Good on them. Okay, put on your other hat, put
on the beef hat. We're in the ball selling season.
I think last year we had a record one hundred
and sixty grand for a black angus ball. All anguses
are black, aren't they? For an angus ball? What are
you seeing in your home patch?
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Well, we haven't had too many in tar and Ecki yet,
but around the North Island the boys and the gen
ICs team.
Speaker 6 (21:26):
Have started off really well. The averages are coming out
good and once.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Again, you know, based dispose on the bottom end of
a high meat schedule, those balls are worth good money
in another another way, So Dove started well though the
averages are really good, and it's so good to see
around the country that those breeders have been rewarded once again.
So yeah, Cam Higgey and the boys are ticking on
real good.
Speaker 4 (21:50):
Okay, Andrew Gibson there from PGG Rights and talking about
the bull sALS. Just before I let you go, you
were mentioning these really good prices of a hark back
to the dairy cows. But isn't there an old mathematical
equation that says you multiply the annual production by the
milk price. And if that was the case, wouldn't dairy
cows be cheap at three grand?
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:11):
You know, years ago when I started it was there
was the production of the care times the payout is
how we sort of came up with the value of
the cow. And you know, most most people around the
country would be doing you know, I would suggest between
four point fifty and five fifty solids, if not better,
you know, times a ten dollars payout. It is making
cows affordable and vetted than calf with a calf.
Speaker 6 (22:32):
Inside them too.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
So yeah, there's good opportunities those young guys. You know,
I think it's that they'll come out real good out
of this coming season and heading forward in the short
term anyway.
Speaker 4 (22:43):
Yeah, the fundamentals are looking really good, not only for
beef but also for dairy. Andrew Gibson, thanks for your time, not.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
A problem, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Twenty seven away from one, Thanks Andrew. Yep. So if
you do the rough maths on that back of the
envelope sort of stuff, I don't know, five hundred kilograms
of milk solids might even't be a bit more for
the average one. Multiply it by ten bucks. I'm just
surrounding things up there. That would make a dairy cow
worth five grand? And what was the old number that
(23:11):
it used to be for buying two tooths? Sheep? I'm
talking about here. Wasn't it the price of two lambs?
What does that make it two tooth worth?
Speaker 9 (23:18):
Now?
Speaker 4 (23:19):
Four hundred bucks? Did I get that some right? Tell
me if I'm wrong on five double nine? Up next,
Michelle with Rural News, We'll have a look at sports
news for you the first of the first game of
seven in the NBA Basketball Finals, tipping off or has
just tipped off in San Antonio. We'll update that one
for you after the break.
Speaker 9 (23:45):
King Lock, can't you on my mind, Off my mind.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Lord, No, twenty three away from one. This is my
and Jewe Liper. I really like Jewelipa. Anyhow, my mom, mum,
why don't we do rural news? I lost Michelle if
she likes Jewe Lipa and Miley.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
The Country's world news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower Brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot Nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
You're only allowed to pick one, Michelle. Who is it
Jewelipa or Mileyally Miley?
Speaker 9 (24:25):
But I think I've lost all my bogue and created
living that one.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Yeah you have? Yeah, Actually I didn't have any musical
cred I liked the Pet Shop Boys, so mine went
years and years ago. Anyhow, No, you've got to keep
your Bogan Bellcluther music cred So if you could pick
one artist to listen to for the rest of your life,
if you were stuck on a desert island, Michelle, who
would it be?
Speaker 9 (24:47):
Oh that's too hard, Maybe maybe deaf Leppers.
Speaker 4 (24:52):
Yep, you've kept your Bogan credentials. Good on you. I
think I would pack just because they've got such a
big music catalog, even though I love the bee Gees.
I think I'd picked the Eagles, but that's probably showing
my age. There are what's in rural news and rural news.
Speaker 9 (25:05):
The South Island's first rural Training Hub that will grow
a pipeline of doctors, nurses and midwives for rural New
Zealand we'll soon be working on the West Coast, announced
today by Associate Health Minister Matt Doocy. The Rural Training
Hub will help ensure that rural communities are not overlooked
by supporting students into clinical placements, creating stronger training pathways
and pastoral support to help attract and retain frontline house
(25:27):
workers across the South Island. The new South Island Rural
Training Hub is the third of four hubs being rolled
out nationally, following South Taranaki and the Wildrower District. And
that's rural news.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Okay, let's have a look at sport.
Speaker 1 (25:40):
Sports on the country with AFCO percent key we owned,
that's rare.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
The first showdown in the NBA Basketball Finals best of
seven series is underway in San Antonio with Western Conference
champions the Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs having home court
advantage against the New York Knicks who haven't won the
NBA Crown since nineteen seventy three. Let's just see if
(26:07):
I can update a score there for you. I haven't
got an updated score on that one. They did kick
off at or tip off at twelve thirty. Maybe they're
running behind time. Who knows. The prospect of an NRL
team based in the South Island has been reignited with
reports the NRL's keen to explore a fast tracking twentieth
(26:27):
license for the well, they're keen to explore fast tracking
a twentieth license for the twenty twenty nine season in
line with a new broadcast deal. And good news, All
Black tight head prop Tyrel Lomas has re signed with
New Zealand Rugby for another three years. This one was
out earlier this morning, becoming the sixth All Black to
(26:49):
sign through to twenty twenty nine. And the reason they're
signing through till then, Michelle is because not only do
they get the World Cup next year, the British and
Irish Lions are coming here and it's exciting.
Speaker 9 (27:01):
Do you think we'll get a game here in Dunedin?
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Though?
Speaker 4 (27:05):
I don't know, I mean, I don't know what the
itinery is I'm assuming they're going to play some sides
other than just three or four tests. But anyhow, we'll
see what happens. I hope. So christ Church can't have everything,
mind you, we had it good for a long time. Okay,
up next on the country, it's our Rosie correspondent Chris Russell.
Is he looking forward to Pauline Hanson being the Prime minister?
(27:27):
Might ask him next? We were right till we won't
build a home. Here's our Rossie correspondent based out of Sydney,
Chris Russell. Are you looking forward to Prime Minister Pauline Hanson?
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Well, it seems a lot of Australians are, I must say,
because you know, not only are they under fifty fives
now coming across the her which hasn't had before, but
also females may be less. Surprisingly, really seemed to be
coming towards Pauline Hanson, and she's really knocking it out
of the park. With the polls going on, we're looking
(28:11):
at her in our score she's only four percent behind
the Labor Party, which is in government. She's three percent
ahead of the current opposition, so she's recording twenty four
percent of the primary vote and she said, and she's
this opposite of what she said before. She's ready to
be Prime minister and she's now considering a move into
(28:32):
the Lower House to get there, So you know how
things move. She had seven percent in the last and
twelve months ago at seven percent of men and six
percent of women, and now she's got to twenty two
percent amongst women and twenty four percent men and twenty
four percent amongst women. So you know, a year is
a long time in policy, Chirs.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
I'm not sure whether the cure is worse than the disease.
I e elbow. Look, the lucky country. You're often referred
to as the lucky country, but it would seem to
me financially at the moment, as and as an economy,
you're not that lucky.
Speaker 3 (29:06):
Well, we've certainly got some problems ahead of it. We've
just seen the latest report from the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics come out and they've predicted the broad acre of
farm profits are going to drop about seventy percent this year.
So that's partly a fall of twenty one percent in
winter crop production, but also of course the extra cost
of fuel and fertilizer and so on and so forth.
(29:29):
But we topped one hundred and seven billion in total
agricultural value last year, which was a record. That's going
to fall back to about ninety eight billion this year.
But when you look at the individual farms, that's where
my alarm bells start to sing, because a lot of
them are now forecasting losses. Whereas last year we were
looking at significant profits six two hundred odd thousand dollars,
(29:54):
we're now looking at profits dropping to fifteen thousand loss
up to sixty five thousand profits the range. So you
know that's of course, farmers are used to droughts and
flooding rains, as they say, but if we see these
business profits drop by that amount, that's not sustainable in
the long term, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (30:13):
Like New Zealand, you wine industries facing challenging tough times, Yes,
well it is.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
And it's interesting. One of our biggest wine producers here,
Tailor's Wines, are so annoyed about the changes in the
budget to particularly the use of trusts to get succession
in their industry. Becaus the family owned company there that
this major producer is considering movies entire business internationally. Maybe
it's in New Zealand, even because he set a thirty
(30:41):
percent minimum tax on discretionary trusts and on capital gains
just doesn't make it sustainable. He says that we've got
the highest level of taxes in Australia twenty nine percent
wine equalization, techs GST. On top of that, there's forty
two percent wholesale tax even on the start, and then
they're going to start taxing the profits another thirty percent,
(31:02):
he says, just not worth it. We've also got the
major wine retail of the Endeavor Group, which owns some
of our big stores here like Dan Murphy's and so on,
saying that they're going to get rid of their actual
wine producing part of their business and just buy grapes
for other people and rather than have their own vineyards.
So you know, there's a lot of changes happening. I'm
not sure the government really forsaw such a massive backlash
(31:26):
against there this year's budget, which is hardly received. There's
hardly a good word for it.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
Jomie rabbits, you reckon you might get rid of them
within six years, to quote the Castle Chris Russell tell
them the dreaming.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
Yeah, well that's it. Well it's I was really interested
in this rabbit control but they're running around now trying
to get this genome sorted out. And if they can,
because rabbits have this amazing ability to reproduce. You are
female producing about sixty rabbits in a year, they think
they can turn that against them and very quickly. Once
(31:59):
they put these sterility genes in, they can actually get
the whole production, whole population of rabbits to self destruct
simply because the spread of the infertile female rabbits. The
rabbits will breathe, but the next population of female rabbits
will all be completely sterile and won't spread. So they've
got to identify the genes first in both males and
(32:22):
females that determine fertility. But once they've done that, they
call it the selfish gene. They say it spreads really
quickly through the population because of their high breeding rate. Well,
you know, we are sitting there. I think it's to
some extent dreaming because phero rabbits cost us about two
hundred million dollars every year.
Speaker 8 (32:40):
Jamie.
Speaker 4 (32:40):
Okay, Chris, out of time, Thanks for yours. Next week
we're going to talk about how to get rid of
cunning foxes. See you later.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
That's an interesting story.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Good on you, Chris, So we will chat again this
time next week. We are underway in San Antonio, first
game of seven NBA Finals and New York Nicks haven't
won it since the seventies. Are up eight two early
in the game, Michelle, what are you giggling at?
Speaker 9 (33:06):
I just had a text coming relating to our music choices, Jamie,
and someone has said, Jamie, I thought you would have
been a John Rolls. Isn't like John Rolls fan? And
I thought, surely you're a bit young for that. My
granddad used to sing John Rolls.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
That's ages Twoever, that text is, shall I tell you
my John Rolls story? How much time we got left?
Speaker 8 (33:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (33:24):
Me and a guy by the name of Lee Piper. Hello, Lee,
if you're listening set up a radio station and Gore
in the nineties called Hockeny we Gold. These days it's
hock and we have the little station that could are brilliant.
And we used to have acts coming to Gore and
we would do a deal with them, you know, like
we would get a per ticket basis. We would give
them free advertising and then get a clip of the tickets.
(33:46):
And I can tell you, I can tell you Michelle
without fear or favor that John Hoare John Hargrenow sold
to Saint James Theater out in Gore. John Roles wasn't
so popular. In fact, our cut of the advertising deal
we gave them thousands of dollars worth of advertising was
only two hundred and forty bucks. And that name, that
number is imprinted in my mind. Anyhow, it came time
(34:07):
to pay the two hundred and forty dollars for our
clip of the John Rolls ticket, and as some smart
ass Auckland lawyer said, we're not paying it. There weren't
enough people that turned up. I said, well, we had
a deal, we got a clip of However, many people
turned up to cut a long story short. I know
you are crunging. I'll get it. Someone will sume me
for this. We never got paid the two hundred and
(34:29):
forty dollars. It's still sitting there as a bad debt
for Radio Okanoe Limited. And I've never ever played John
Rolls since. And it's not John's fault. That's some smart
ass lawyer in Auckland. There's my John Roles story for you,
for better or worse. Up next, we're going to tell
you what a super ol Nino might mean for a
(34:50):
dairy cow. Welcome back to the country. Here's a company
that I've had a lot to do with over the years,
and I go back to the Ross Highland days in Mournsville.
We were talking about Moronsville earlier in the week on
(35:10):
the Country when we were saluting Jeff Maber and a
giant cow, Mabel. It is the dairy and capital of
the country. And the company is Seals Winslow, founded in
Moronsville these days right around the country, in fact, a
subsidiary of Farmlands. Joining us on the show today is
Simon Butler. He's the nutrition expert from Seals Winslow. Simon,
(35:34):
here's a question for you, because we're facing like potentially
a super al nino and maybe a milder and especially
drier winter. How does that affect like cow nutrition heading
into carving and setting up for peak peak production? Does
it make your life easier as a dairy farmer. Good afternoon,
by the way.
Speaker 8 (35:55):
Cheers Jenning, you, thank you. Yeah. I think it's important
to remember that talk. You know, these alminos and leninas
have been really hot topic over the last couple of years.
It's important to remember that they're not the only controlling
factor in what the weather ends up doing. And I
think that, you know, farmers are used to not knowing
(36:15):
what the weather is going to bring, and that focus
should really be on getting those fundamentals in that foundation
set going into you know, we can talk about that
possibly being a really dry summer, the up going into summer,
whether it's going to be dry or wet, we want
the cows to be and essentially the same condition, milking
(36:37):
really well, maybe putting a bit of condition on and
being in carf So this first half of the season
we're really doing the same thing. There might be some
changes in the grass that we need to balance out
with our supplements and with our supplementary feeding, but really
the foundations are the same, and it's and it's you know,
there's a bit of a false economy. They're trying to
(36:59):
predict the weather as as a lot of farmers will know.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
What about the economy of supplements and high payout years,
it must be good. I mean, I'm a broken down
sheep farmer. I know a wee bit about dairy farming.
But it becomes a mathematical equation, doesn't it, Simon Poke,
It in one end take it out the other.
Speaker 6 (37:16):
Yes and no.
Speaker 8 (37:18):
So we want to make sure that whatever dollar we're
spending on the dairy farm, it's going it's going to
something that's going to return an investment. And so feed cost,
whether it's your PK, whether it's your may siloge, we
want to yes, look at the cost that it's going
to incur bringing it onto farm, but we want to
(37:38):
make sure that what the supplements we are bringing onto
farmer actually filling a gap and driving a productive outcome,
because we might depending on what the cow needs, depending
on what the grass is doing, we might get a
good response from one feed that might be a little
bit more expensive, and a cheaper feed might actually compound
some of the issues that we're that we're that we're
(37:59):
running into on far So it's important to think about
where our money is going and not just that ton price.
Speaker 4 (38:05):
Okay, one more question for you. This is a bit
off the script, but it does interest me. Are the
days of having like a mainly grass fed cow gone?
Speaker 8 (38:14):
No, definitely not. Obviously, it's one of ours. One of
our selling points is New Zealand Dairy Producers, is that
we we milk our cows off grass, and that's that's
not going to change. The issue is that as time
goes on and we're encouraged to get more efficiency in
our systems and get more production about out of what
we do feed and our genetics improve and our dairy herds,
(38:38):
grass starts to show grass. Only you know there are
some nutritional gaps there and so our job is nutrition consultants,
is to really attempt to fill those gaps and compliment
that pasture to get the best result.
Speaker 4 (38:50):
Hey, Simon Butler from Sales Winslow. Great to catch up.
I mentioned, of course Ross Hyland, the founder and Mournsville.
Hello Ross, if you're listening. Another great eals Winslow man
is the great Graham Smith. Just ask him anyhow. It's
good to good to catch up with a wonderful company.
I'll see you at Field Days because you guys are
attached to the Farmland site site E one oh eight
(39:13):
where we'll be broadcasting from next week. Thanks for your time, Simon.
Speaker 8 (39:16):
No worries it all, Jamie, Thank you very much.
Speaker 4 (39:19):
Thank you, Simon. Hey, and lots of feedback coming in
about my John Roles. I think he's Sir John Roles
these days. Story now there is an ending to this story.
This is the nineteen nineties and Gore Hockenue Radio, ME
and Lee Piper So, the agreasy Auckland lawyer who wouldn't
pay the two hundred and forty bucks, said I don't care.
I said, I'm never playing John Roles again. He said,
I don't care. You just a shitty little radio station.
(39:40):
And Gore and I said to him, one day, one day,
I might be broadcasting to a bigger audience. So smart
asked Auckland lawyer, if you're listening in Auckland, me one,
you nil see you tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
Never mansu.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Catch all them. Latest from the Land, It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mackay. Thanks to Farmland's advice you can
trust products you can count on.
Catch you're the latest from the Land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Farmland's advice you can
trust products, you can count on.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Preser lock up, can't at you on my mind? Off
my mind?
Speaker 3 (00:18):
Lord, No, I tried a million times, a million times.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Oh why don't you? Why dont you just let me go?
Speaker 4 (00:29):
Good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie McKay.
The show is brought to you by Isuzu and Farmlands.
Looking forward to broadcasting next week Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
From the Farmland site, he one to eight at Field Days.
A lot of water to go under the bridge. Between
now and then we're going to head up to Marsden Point.
(00:51):
Shane Jones is waiting on the end of the phone.
I think he's up there for a bit of a
photo opportunity an election year. We'll find out what he's
been up to and why have there been six animal
welfare complaints lodged with MPI after he cradled a crayfish
in its final hours in Parliament. Only the Prince of
(01:11):
the Provinces can pull that sort of stuff off. Jen
Corkran was Rabobank's senior animal protein analyst. They've just come out.
In fact, it's not even out. We're previewing the June
Agri Business Monthly and it's very much it's very much
a good news bad news scenario. Good news on the
income side of the ledger, bad news on the cost
(01:33):
side of it. Andrew Gibson, we're heading to Taranaki there
will tell you what a cow's worth a fortune to
be perfectly honest. Chris Russell's our Ossie correspond that we're
going to catch up with him and talking about cows.
What does a super al neeno mean for a dairy cow.
We're staring down the barrel of one of those. Apparently
we'll tell you before the end of the hour. But
(01:54):
up next that's Shane Jones at Marsden Point.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
Can't you what can't you just let me.
Speaker 4 (02:11):
Kicking off the country today live from Marsden Point, where
he's watching a shipload of diesel being unloaded. I think
is New Zealand's natural answer to the shortage of natural gas,
because this man amids plenty of it. I say that
in Jess Shane Jones, Prince of the Provinces, because when
you're not at Marsden Point. You are cradling crayfish in Parliament.
(02:34):
Talk to me about the diesel.
Speaker 5 (02:36):
Hi, I'm up at Marsden Point. As you know, I
found the money to recommission one hundred million liter tank.
All of these great assets were basically degraded by Jasinda
and Meghan Woods, the worst politician from an energy perspective
ever to existed in New Zealand. But look, we do
(02:58):
need additional storage for fuel. That ship is literally on
its way. I'm here because the recommissioning is over. It's
ready to rock and roll. I wanted to ensure that
I have a photo opportunity because we're also setting up
a special economic zone. According to my leader, after we
(03:20):
enjoy the fruits of victory at the next election, God willing,
And hey, I should deserve some of the some of
the credit for having saved a small part of Marsden
Point refinery.
Speaker 4 (03:34):
And it sounds like a photo opportunity an election year
for me. Hey, just before I forget, you are leading
one of the debating teams at Field Days next week
at the big fundraiser for the Rural Support Trust. It's
the rural industry leaders debate and let me loock who's
in Because do you know anything about this? Has anyone
told you you're doing this?
Speaker 5 (03:57):
I am nothing but a dutiful sevant of the Caucus
of New Zealand. First, I do what I'm told. But
any opportunity to shine in front of you, seize at
any opportunity.
Speaker 4 (04:07):
Okay, you Sue's Redmain who was very good in the
same debate last year, and Jessica much McKay. There's a name,
a blast from the past in one team, and I
think Karen macinnolty's leading the other team and he's got
to radar and Hamish McKay my offside to hear from
the country. So I reckon there could be some good
barbes flying, especially between you and Kiaren.
Speaker 5 (04:29):
Oh, don't worry about that. He's a bookie, as you know.
Cut his teeth on calling the second or third leg
of the race. There at Alice Lee or whatever's left
at Tohidi Niko.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Yeah, hopefully you turn up. Apparently you were asked last year,
but you were a no show.
Speaker 5 (04:45):
No no no, no, no no no. My wife has
dedicated several days of me at Mystery Creek, and I
want everyone to remember I found the money to help
with the irrigation and the wastewater. Not that I'll be
not that I'll be likened to wastewater when I turn
up this year for the big jamboree for the farmers
at Mystery Creekment. There was a bit of dough needed
to sort out the infrastructure, and the Prince of the Provinces,
(05:08):
the caretaker of the infrastructure fund, delivered for you cockies
there in Hamilton.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
Six animal welfare complaints have been lodged with the Ministry
of Primary Industries after Shane Jones. That's you brought a
live crayfish to Parliament. You claimed that you were simply
cradling the crayfish in its final hours.
Speaker 5 (05:32):
I mean, what the hell's wrong with this country? Made
I get given a koh by the Naito because I'm
the best fisheries minister that anyone can remember, way back
since nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
Pay do you do you realize that's quite a trumpy
and sort of commentary on yourself the best fisher fishing
minister ever.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
Well, I can't help but claim credit for things that
have mutted about me in dark recesses of public bars
on the South Island. And look at this it seemed
to me that it was a massive cray It was
an example of my stewardship and how I'm regarded in
the South Island. Look, I couldn't take it into parliament.
Jerry Brownie would have confiscated and consumed it. And I
(06:14):
just didn't know that. A whole lot of people with
nothing better to do with start scribbling letters to MPI
who technically worked for me. Some of them do and
they have to now investigate with and I've broken the law.
I don't think I have. And by the way, it
entertained a hell of a lot of people, both in
the media. I mean someone tried to pat. It shows
(06:34):
how few of these woke riddle journalists understand it. You
don't pat a crayfish. It can actually use its barbs
and bite you, almost god, bite you, pinch you. It
went in the pot, mate, and it satisfied the pookle.
Speaker 3 (06:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Well, I was going to say, I was going to
ask that question. You've answered it. Did the crayfish come
to a sticky end? Yes, it did, just a couple
to finish on. Actually, I'm going to be talking to
Jen Corchran from Rabobanks shortly on the Country and the
RABO Research team, their international team, have come out with
a rather pessimistic baseline forecast for the Strait of her
(07:07):
Moves to remain closed until September. They're also picking that
the forecast price for a barrel of oil will be
one hundred and twenty in Q three one hundred dollars
in Q four. That's bad news if that was to
come to pass.
Speaker 5 (07:23):
Yeah, Look, there's so many models and there's so much speculation.
There's two ways to respond to this issue. Are we
going to suffer a crisis of physical scarcity or is
it just going to be an ongoing price issue. We've
been told that will continue to gain access to fuel,
(07:43):
but the price is going to be the problem. And
you know as well as I do, the price does
end up destroying demand. But Mate, every time we think
there's a glimmer of hope, then there's a new tweet
and I have to recalibrate what we've planned on. Not flash.
But you know, we're at the end of the railway
line and I say to your cockies and the people listening,
(08:06):
and they're in their thousands, hundreds of thousands, that we're
doing everything we can to maintain supply to New Zealand,
but we don't have a refinery. We have few options
and over time we're going to have to lessen our
demand on imported fuel. But in the short term we've
got to manage our way through this FIESCA.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Have you and Winston never thought of a bit of
a bit of nuclear power? Perhaps?
Speaker 6 (08:30):
Well?
Speaker 5 (08:30):
We took a remit to our party conference whether or
not we should explore and start a conversation about these small,
modular options for nuclear fusion. There's a difference between fusion
and fission, and we did allocate some money about thirty
million or the blessings of our cabinet. There's a wee
(08:53):
initiative being pursued by a brilliant young physicist there in
Wellington and he's seeking to, I guess bust open a
new frontier of energy in New Zealand using nuclear technology.
But it's some way off. The remit didn't actually find
a great deal of traction, but it's not as if
we were afraid to open up the discussion that was
(09:16):
at our last party conference. But there doesn't seem to
be a great deal of appetite amongst garden Brieighty qwis
for adding nuclear technology to the options to generate cheap
energy in New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Shane j Ownes live from Marsden Point. The greatest minister
of fisheries ever. He's a beautiful minister of fisheries. Thanks
for your time.
Speaker 5 (09:38):
See you, buddy, Bye bye.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Yes, it was rather Trumpian, wasn't it. Thank you, Shane.
I see Trump talking about Trump is up to it again.
Trade minister told McLay says, no one's happy with Donald
Trump's latest tariffs. So if you haven't caught up on
this one, it came out earlier this morning. The Trump
Administration's announced a new twelve point five percent tariff for
(10:02):
dozens of countries, including US here in New Zealand, accusing
US of failing to stop force labor. Rich. Isn't it
coming from the United States of America? The place runs
on slave labor, immigrant labor. Todd McClay says most countries
also face new tariffs for other reasons. He told Heather
(10:23):
duplici Ellen earlier this morning that he's been in meetings
with international counterparts in Paris and everyone's on the same page.
He says, there isn't anything saying those new tariffs are
a good thing. There isn't anyone should I say saying
the new tariffs are a good thing as they create uncertainty,
affect their exporters and create added costs. The guys a nutjobbed. Seriously,
(10:48):
it's just one hit after another. Up next right, This
is sort of the good news bad news part of
the show. Today a Rabobank. It's not even released yet.
This is a preview of it. I think it goes
to press tomorrow. The June Agri Business monthlyy look the
outlook for dairy, beef and sheep. The commodity outlooks very good.
(11:10):
The problem we have is the cost of farm inputs,
the fact that interest rates are going up, and obviously
while the strait of her mouse stays largely shut blocked off,
the cost of oil and freight is going to remain high.
In fact, Rabobank have been crunching the numbers on when
(11:31):
that strait could possibly open. We'll discuss that with Jen
Corchran from Rabobank. Up next on the country.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
We were good.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
We were good kind of dream the can't be so.
Speaker 4 (11:59):
Every month Rabo Bank puts out an Agri Business Monthly Report.
I just go straight to the summary page because it
tells me all I need to know and it's all
on one page. Can't beat that. Do you know what,
Jen Corkran, who's the senior animal proteins analyst for Rabobank,
you know what frightens me the most about this report.
You guys at Rabo Research have changed your baseline forecast
(12:22):
for the Strait of Muz to remain closed until September,
and you've raised your Q three and Q four oil
price forecast to one hundred and twenty and one hundred
dollars per barrel, respectively. Gee, that's grim who wrote this
for you?
Speaker 5 (12:38):
Was it?
Speaker 4 (12:39):
My friend Michael every the global strategist.
Speaker 7 (12:42):
Hi, Jamie, And yes, you know we have this global
team that updates a lot of these forecasts and live
right in this world, right So we've got Mike Everry,
who's definitely one of the key ones here and who
is one of the main people who've come up with
sort of our current baseline view, which was updated. We
we sort of were hoping or or ahead of you
that the straight might start to reach sort of normal
(13:05):
opening levels in that late majorly dune period. But having
hit that, re evaluated and you know, the Rubber Research
view now assumes this strait is likely to remain out
of normal operation until around September, so that really pushes
things out. And I think it's just important for us
to have a view on what we think is going
to happen. And we hear talks of these deals and
(13:26):
you know this and that and back and forward, but actually,
at the end of the day, there's no real solution
happening right now. There's still very few ships and making
it through and this is where we sit, and that
will push oil prices higher as we move through the
if this space case kind of unfolds as we see.
Speaker 4 (13:43):
It, well, considerably higher because last time I had a lock,
Brent Krube was trading in the nineties, I think, so
to get up to one hundred and twenty in Q
three is a bit of a concern. Let's hope, Michael
every my favorite alarmist Jen Corchran, has that wrong. Because
here's another one, and this is probably a guy in Sydney,
Ben Pickton, who does your foreign exchange and interest rate forecasting.
(14:06):
You're forecasting twenty five points rate hike at the next
meeting in July. That would be no surprise, Yeah.
Speaker 7 (14:15):
No surprise for most people, I think, Jamie, and it
was really interesting to hear right that we had that
three and three split in terms of the decision on
the day, and that that was sort of vocalized out,
and it really does suggest that the direction of Trevor,
even within some of the commentary that came out from
the other NST after that. So I think that one's
reasonably firm, I guess in terms of the potential view
(14:38):
and unsurprising unfortunately, just given what is going on globally,
even though we can't control it, we're trying to kind
of control that future inflationary pressure a lot further down
the road, I think.
Speaker 4 (14:49):
With this one more to look at on the debit
side of the Ledger before we get to the good news,
which is the credit side of the ledger. Farm inputs
no surprise here. We've talked about fuel prices, fertile ditto.
Farm inputs across the board all have a fuel component
in them. They will stay up. Okay, that's the bad news.
The good news is when we look at the prospects
(15:10):
for dairy, beef and sheep in your Agribusiness or June
Agribusiness monthly, it's all pretty positive. I'll leave the dairy
because it's not your absolute area of expertise. You are
the red meat gal. Can I say that Jen at Rabobank,
you're the expert in the field there. How good's that looking?
Speaker 7 (15:27):
It's looking good, isn't it?
Speaker 5 (15:28):
Jamie?
Speaker 7 (15:28):
And I do spend most of my day to day
sort of on that animal protein red meat side from
New Zealand. And it's wonderful to see.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
You know.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
I think we've talked.
Speaker 7 (15:37):
We talked a couple of years here and we were like,
you know, six, sevens and eights probably were some of
the frontline numbers that we were speaking. I think they
might have even been a five at one point Jamie.
But you know, if we're looking at what are we
looking at? Nine to tens, elevens, tens elevens, twelve potentially
into the spring and some in terms of some of
these front farm gate price numbers. And this is really
(15:57):
good to see, and it is just showing that that
some very strong fundamentals despite all the messy Bible situation,
there's some really strong fundamentals when it comes to that
supply and demand situation. And it's very much a supply
story that's kind of keeping a floor in these prices
in the floor is pretty high, and we're actually starting
to see that up tick now as we head into
the beginning of winter, so more room to move I
(16:20):
think upwards. And the fundamentals in terms of that protein
demand globally for our wonderful products that doesn't have an
ingredients list is at the top of the menus at
the moment, I think for a lot of people.
Speaker 4 (16:31):
Yeah, we had a guy called Simon Quilty. Do you
know him? He was at the Beef and Lamb New
Zealand conference in christ Church and he's been spouting twelve
dollars in excess of twelve dollars for lamb in excess
of ten dollars for beef for the new season. I
hope he's right on that one. Jen Corchoran, Hey, thanks
for some of your time. You can read more about
it in the June Agribusiness Monthly Report on the rabobank website.
(16:54):
See you at field Days.
Speaker 8 (16:55):
See you so Jamie.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
Thank you, Jen twenty five to twelve. Some of your
text feedback. Our text numbers five, double O nine if
you want to get a hold of us. This is
from Kristin regular Texter always enjoy Kristen's contribution to the show.
Kristin writes, Donald Trump and his entourage are a fickle mob.
(17:19):
That's one way of describing them, Kristen, that have caused
no end of chaos around the world. I think he
has actually to be perfectly honest. But anyhow, we'll see
what happens. I hope, I hope Rabobank's wrong, because this
is good to remember that Michael every was one of
the guys who wrote this during Agribusiness Monthly Report when
(17:41):
it came to the Strait of a Moose. So just
repeating what Jen said there before. Rabo Research has changed
its baseline forecast for the Strait and they're going to
say it's going to remain closed until September. They've raised
their Q three and Q four oil price forecasts to
one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel for Q three,
(18:02):
one hundred for Q four. I think we're sitting in
the nineties, as I said at the moment, So look,
that's not good news. Let's hope they're wrong on that one.
Up next, the price of a dairy Cow. It might
surprise you. We're heading to Taranaki next.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Fuck excited grab but then remembered him.
Speaker 4 (18:26):
Bowers my names. I came in like good for the
second time today on the country. Let's talk ball. You've
already heard from Shane Jones. He is full of it,
very entertaining. This bloke might be a bit more Circumspector's
(18:48):
name is Andrew Gibson. He's the area livestock manager and
auctioneer in the Taranaki region for PGG rights and of
course as the ball selling season we're shifting lots of
dairy cows as well. Hey Andrew, are you a Shane
Jones fan?
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Hey, Jamie, Yeah I am. Actually I don't mind the
politicians that ripplyn and tell the truth, so most of
the time he's pretty good. And yeah, I don't have
to call the light crayfish in Parliament was a good idea.
Speaker 4 (19:15):
Well, it wasn't for the crayfish. It was for Shane.
He reckoned. He got it down his gob before Jerry
brownly hat it. That would be a battle of two
big men. Okay, I want to start because Taranaki along
with the white cattle. Although I might get hung and
drawn and caught it in Southland and Canterby for saying that,
But they you're the traditional dairying province now at this
time of the year. Of course, we had moving day
(19:38):
or weekend or week just past. There's a lot of farmers,
sheer milkers changing jobs, changing farms, and a lot of herds,
dairy cow herds changing ownership. Are they like gold? What
do you have to pay for a decent dairy cow
these days?
Speaker 2 (19:54):
It's been a big, big mirror of transactions, a lot
of movement around the place. And you know, most of
the cows and the paddock were making between twenty eight
and so the thirty one hundred and paddock sales, but
the auctions have been I've ticked along a lot better
with people picked through and the carving dates and breeding
worths and p w's and productions. So yeah, there's there's
(20:15):
been a huge amount of transactions and it's gone so
smoothly that really with the fuel price and the fairy
sort of prices jumped up, but everything went smooth. With
the weather a month of May was is so beautiful,
so it all ended up being okay.
Speaker 6 (20:30):
So that was good.
Speaker 4 (20:31):
Lots of farms changing hands in Taranaki.
Speaker 6 (20:35):
Yeah, took them to the Rabobank team the other day.
And they were saying that there's one hundred and four
sales over four hectares, and they were saying that there's
been the fifty four of farm transactions recorded in Taraniki
this season. So good, good, really good to see a
lot of young guys ripping into it again, which three
years ago I was probably pretty concerned about the amount
(20:57):
of young people exiting the industry. But the future look good.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
So the young guys are getting back in and having
a crack at buying some nice farms, which is good
to see and.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
Good on them. Okay, put on your other hat, put
on the beef hat. We're in the ball selling season.
I think last year we had a record one hundred
and sixty grand for a black angus ball. All anguses
are black, aren't they? For an angus ball? What are
you seeing in your home patch?
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Well, we haven't had too many in tar and Ecki yet,
but around the North Island the boys and the gen
ICs team.
Speaker 6 (21:26):
Have started off really well. The averages are coming out
good and once.
Speaker 2 (21:30):
Again, you know, based dispose on the bottom end of
a high meat schedule, those balls are worth good money
in another another way, So Dove started well though the
averages are really good, and it's so good to see
around the country that those breeders have been rewarded once again.
So yeah, Cam Higgey and the boys are ticking on
real good.
Speaker 4 (21:50):
Okay, Andrew Gibson there from PGG Rights and talking about
the bull sALS. Just before I let you go, you
were mentioning these really good prices of a hark back
to the dairy cows. But isn't there an old mathematical
equation that says you multiply the annual production by the
milk price. And if that was the case, wouldn't dairy
cows be cheap at three grand?
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (22:11):
You know, years ago when I started it was there
was the production of the care times the payout is
how we sort of came up with the value of
the cow. And you know, most most people around the
country would be doing you know, I would suggest between
four point fifty and five fifty solids, if not better,
you know, times a ten dollars payout. It is making
cows affordable and vetted than calf with a calf.
Speaker 6 (22:32):
Inside them too.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
So yeah, there's good opportunities those young guys. You know,
I think it's that they'll come out real good out
of this coming season and heading forward in the short
term anyway.
Speaker 4 (22:43):
Yeah, the fundamentals are looking really good, not only for
beef but also for dairy. Andrew Gibson, thanks for your time, not.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
A problem, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 4 (22:50):
Twenty seven away from one, Thanks Andrew. Yep. So if
you do the rough maths on that back of the
envelope sort of stuff, I don't know, five hundred kilograms
of milk solids might even't be a bit more for
the average one. Multiply it by ten bucks. I'm just
surrounding things up there. That would make a dairy cow
worth five grand? And what was the old number that
(23:11):
it used to be for buying two tooths? Sheep? I'm
talking about here. Wasn't it the price of two lambs?
What does that make it two tooth worth?
Speaker 9 (23:18):
Now?
Speaker 4 (23:19):
Four hundred bucks? Did I get that some right? Tell
me if I'm wrong on five double nine? Up next,
Michelle with Rural News, We'll have a look at sports
news for you the first of the first game of
seven in the NBA Basketball Finals, tipping off or has
just tipped off in San Antonio. We'll update that one
for you after the break.
Speaker 9 (23:45):
King Lock, can't you on my mind, Off my mind.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Lord, No, twenty three away from one. This is my
and Jewe Liper. I really like Jewelipa. Anyhow, my mom, mum,
why don't we do rural news? I lost Michelle if
she likes Jewe Lipa and Miley.
Speaker 1 (24:12):
The Country's world news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower Brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot Nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
You're only allowed to pick one, Michelle. Who is it
Jewelipa or Mileyally Miley?
Speaker 9 (24:25):
But I think I've lost all my bogue and created
living that one.
Speaker 4 (24:28):
Yeah you have? Yeah, Actually I didn't have any musical
cred I liked the Pet Shop Boys, so mine went
years and years ago. Anyhow, No, you've got to keep
your Bogan Bellcluther music cred So if you could pick
one artist to listen to for the rest of your life,
if you were stuck on a desert island, Michelle, who
would it be?
Speaker 9 (24:47):
Oh that's too hard, Maybe maybe deaf Leppers.
Speaker 4 (24:52):
Yep, you've kept your Bogan credentials. Good on you. I
think I would pack just because they've got such a
big music catalog, even though I love the bee Gees.
I think I'd picked the Eagles, but that's probably showing
my age. There are what's in rural news and rural news.
Speaker 9 (25:05):
The South Island's first rural Training Hub that will grow
a pipeline of doctors, nurses and midwives for rural New
Zealand we'll soon be working on the West Coast, announced
today by Associate Health Minister Matt Doocy. The Rural Training
Hub will help ensure that rural communities are not overlooked
by supporting students into clinical placements, creating stronger training pathways
and pastoral support to help attract and retain frontline house
(25:27):
workers across the South Island. The new South Island Rural
Training Hub is the third of four hubs being rolled
out nationally, following South Taranaki and the Wildrower District. And
that's rural news.
Speaker 4 (25:38):
Okay, let's have a look at sport.
Speaker 1 (25:40):
Sports on the country with AFCO percent key we owned,
that's rare.
Speaker 4 (25:46):
The first showdown in the NBA Basketball Finals best of
seven series is underway in San Antonio with Western Conference
champions the Spurs. The San Antonio Spurs having home court
advantage against the New York Knicks who haven't won the
NBA Crown since nineteen seventy three. Let's just see if
(26:07):
I can update a score there for you. I haven't
got an updated score on that one. They did kick
off at or tip off at twelve thirty. Maybe they're
running behind time. Who knows. The prospect of an NRL
team based in the South Island has been reignited with
reports the NRL's keen to explore a fast tracking twentieth
(26:27):
license for the well, they're keen to explore fast tracking
a twentieth license for the twenty twenty nine season in
line with a new broadcast deal. And good news, All
Black tight head prop Tyrel Lomas has re signed with
New Zealand Rugby for another three years. This one was
out earlier this morning, becoming the sixth All Black to
(26:49):
sign through to twenty twenty nine. And the reason they're
signing through till then, Michelle is because not only do
they get the World Cup next year, the British and
Irish Lions are coming here and it's exciting.
Speaker 9 (27:01):
Do you think we'll get a game here in Dunedin?
Speaker 2 (27:02):
Though?
Speaker 4 (27:05):
I don't know, I mean, I don't know what the
itinery is I'm assuming they're going to play some sides
other than just three or four tests. But anyhow, we'll
see what happens. I hope. So christ Church can't have everything,
mind you, we had it good for a long time. Okay,
up next on the country, it's our Rosie correspondent Chris Russell.
Is he looking forward to Pauline Hanson being the Prime minister?
(27:27):
Might ask him next? We were right till we won't
build a home. Here's our Rossie correspondent based out of Sydney,
Chris Russell. Are you looking forward to Prime Minister Pauline Hanson?
Speaker 3 (27:50):
Well, it seems a lot of Australians are, I must say,
because you know, not only are they under fifty fives
now coming across the her which hasn't had before, but
also females may be less. Surprisingly, really seemed to be
coming towards Pauline Hanson, and she's really knocking it out
of the park. With the polls going on, we're looking
(28:11):
at her in our score she's only four percent behind
the Labor Party, which is in government. She's three percent
ahead of the current opposition, so she's recording twenty four
percent of the primary vote and she said, and she's
this opposite of what she said before. She's ready to
be Prime minister and she's now considering a move into
(28:32):
the Lower House to get there, So you know how
things move. She had seven percent in the last and
twelve months ago at seven percent of men and six
percent of women, and now she's got to twenty two
percent amongst women and twenty four percent men and twenty
four percent amongst women. So you know, a year is
a long time in policy, Chirs.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
I'm not sure whether the cure is worse than the disease.
I e elbow. Look, the lucky country. You're often referred
to as the lucky country, but it would seem to
me financially at the moment, as and as an economy,
you're not that lucky.
Speaker 3 (29:06):
Well, we've certainly got some problems ahead of it. We've
just seen the latest report from the Bureau of Agricultural
Statistics come out and they've predicted the broad acre of
farm profits are going to drop about seventy percent this year.
So that's partly a fall of twenty one percent in
winter crop production, but also of course the extra cost
of fuel and fertilizer and so on and so forth.
(29:29):
But we topped one hundred and seven billion in total
agricultural value last year, which was a record. That's going
to fall back to about ninety eight billion this year.
But when you look at the individual farms, that's where
my alarm bells start to sing, because a lot of
them are now forecasting losses. Whereas last year we were
looking at significant profits six two hundred odd thousand dollars,
(29:54):
we're now looking at profits dropping to fifteen thousand loss
up to sixty five thousand profits the range. So you
know that's of course, farmers are used to droughts and
flooding rains, as they say, but if we see these
business profits drop by that amount, that's not sustainable in
the long term, Jamie.
Speaker 4 (30:13):
Like New Zealand, you wine industries facing challenging tough times, Yes,
well it is.
Speaker 3 (30:20):
And it's interesting. One of our biggest wine producers here,
Tailor's Wines, are so annoyed about the changes in the
budget to particularly the use of trusts to get succession
in their industry. Becaus the family owned company there that
this major producer is considering movies entire business internationally. Maybe
it's in New Zealand, even because he set a thirty
(30:41):
percent minimum tax on discretionary trusts and on capital gains
just doesn't make it sustainable. He says that we've got
the highest level of taxes in Australia twenty nine percent
wine equalization, techs GST. On top of that, there's forty
two percent wholesale tax even on the start, and then
they're going to start taxing the profits another thirty percent,
(31:02):
he says, just not worth it. We've also got the
major wine retail of the Endeavor Group, which owns some
of our big stores here like Dan Murphy's and so on,
saying that they're going to get rid of their actual
wine producing part of their business and just buy grapes
for other people and rather than have their own vineyards.
So you know, there's a lot of changes happening. I'm
not sure the government really forsaw such a massive backlash
(31:26):
against there this year's budget, which is hardly received. There's
hardly a good word for it.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
Jomie rabbits, you reckon you might get rid of them
within six years, to quote the Castle Chris Russell tell
them the dreaming.
Speaker 3 (31:39):
Yeah, well that's it. Well it's I was really interested
in this rabbit control but they're running around now trying
to get this genome sorted out. And if they can,
because rabbits have this amazing ability to reproduce. You are
female producing about sixty rabbits in a year, they think
they can turn that against them and very quickly. Once
(31:59):
they put these sterility genes in, they can actually get
the whole production, whole population of rabbits to self destruct
simply because the spread of the infertile female rabbits. The
rabbits will breathe, but the next population of female rabbits
will all be completely sterile and won't spread. So they've
got to identify the genes first in both males and
(32:22):
females that determine fertility. But once they've done that, they
call it the selfish gene. They say it spreads really
quickly through the population because of their high breeding rate. Well,
you know, we are sitting there. I think it's to
some extent dreaming because phero rabbits cost us about two
hundred million dollars every year.
Speaker 8 (32:40):
Jamie.
Speaker 4 (32:40):
Okay, Chris, out of time, Thanks for yours. Next week
we're going to talk about how to get rid of
cunning foxes. See you later.
Speaker 3 (32:46):
That's an interesting story.
Speaker 4 (32:49):
Good on you, Chris, So we will chat again this
time next week. We are underway in San Antonio, first
game of seven NBA Finals and New York Nicks haven't
won it since the seventies. Are up eight two early
in the game, Michelle, what are you giggling at?
Speaker 9 (33:06):
I just had a text coming relating to our music choices, Jamie,
and someone has said, Jamie, I thought you would have
been a John Rolls. Isn't like John Rolls fan? And
I thought, surely you're a bit young for that. My
granddad used to sing John Rolls.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
That's ages Twoever, that text is, shall I tell you
my John Rolls story? How much time we got left?
Speaker 8 (33:23):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (33:24):
Me and a guy by the name of Lee Piper. Hello, Lee,
if you're listening set up a radio station and Gore
in the nineties called Hockeny we Gold. These days it's
hock and we have the little station that could are brilliant.
And we used to have acts coming to Gore and
we would do a deal with them, you know, like
we would get a per ticket basis. We would give
them free advertising and then get a clip of the tickets.
(33:46):
And I can tell you, I can tell you Michelle
without fear or favor that John Hoare John Hargrenow sold
to Saint James Theater out in Gore. John Roles wasn't
so popular. In fact, our cut of the advertising deal
we gave them thousands of dollars worth of advertising was
only two hundred and forty bucks. And that name, that
number is imprinted in my mind. Anyhow, it came time
(34:07):
to pay the two hundred and forty dollars for our
clip of the John Rolls ticket, and as some smart
ass Auckland lawyer said, we're not paying it. There weren't
enough people that turned up. I said, well, we had
a deal, we got a clip of However, many people
turned up to cut a long story short. I know
you are crunging. I'll get it. Someone will sume me
for this. We never got paid the two hundred and
(34:29):
forty dollars. It's still sitting there as a bad debt
for Radio Okanoe Limited. And I've never ever played John
Rolls since. And it's not John's fault. That's some smart
ass lawyer in Auckland. There's my John Roles story for you,
for better or worse. Up next, we're going to tell
you what a super ol Nino might mean for a
(34:50):
dairy cow. Welcome back to the country. Here's a company
that I've had a lot to do with over the years,
and I go back to the Ross Highland days in Mournsville.
We were talking about Moronsville earlier in the week on
(35:10):
the Country when we were saluting Jeff Maber and a
giant cow, Mabel. It is the dairy and capital of
the country. And the company is Seals Winslow, founded in
Moronsville these days right around the country, in fact, a
subsidiary of Farmlands. Joining us on the show today is
Simon Butler. He's the nutrition expert from Seals Winslow. Simon,
(35:34):
here's a question for you, because we're facing like potentially
a super al nino and maybe a milder and especially
drier winter. How does that affect like cow nutrition heading
into carving and setting up for peak peak production? Does
it make your life easier as a dairy farmer. Good afternoon,
by the way.
Speaker 8 (35:55):
Cheers Jenning, you, thank you. Yeah. I think it's important
to remember that talk. You know, these alminos and leninas
have been really hot topic over the last couple of years.
It's important to remember that they're not the only controlling
factor in what the weather ends up doing. And I
think that, you know, farmers are used to not knowing
(36:15):
what the weather is going to bring, and that focus
should really be on getting those fundamentals in that foundation
set going into you know, we can talk about that
possibly being a really dry summer, the up going into summer,
whether it's going to be dry or wet, we want
the cows to be and essentially the same condition, milking
(36:37):
really well, maybe putting a bit of condition on and
being in carf So this first half of the season
we're really doing the same thing. There might be some
changes in the grass that we need to balance out
with our supplements and with our supplementary feeding, but really
the foundations are the same, and it's and it's you know,
there's a bit of a false economy. They're trying to
(36:59):
predict the weather as as a lot of farmers will know.
Speaker 4 (37:01):
What about the economy of supplements and high payout years,
it must be good. I mean, I'm a broken down
sheep farmer. I know a wee bit about dairy farming.
But it becomes a mathematical equation, doesn't it, Simon Poke,
It in one end take it out the other.
Speaker 6 (37:16):
Yes and no.
Speaker 8 (37:18):
So we want to make sure that whatever dollar we're
spending on the dairy farm, it's going it's going to
something that's going to return an investment. And so feed cost,
whether it's your PK, whether it's your may siloge, we
want to yes, look at the cost that it's going
to incur bringing it onto farm, but we want to
(37:38):
make sure that what the supplements we are bringing onto
farmer actually filling a gap and driving a productive outcome,
because we might depending on what the cow needs, depending
on what the grass is doing, we might get a
good response from one feed that might be a little
bit more expensive, and a cheaper feed might actually compound
some of the issues that we're that we're that we're
(37:59):
running into on far So it's important to think about
where our money is going and not just that ton price.
Speaker 4 (38:05):
Okay, one more question for you. This is a bit
off the script, but it does interest me. Are the
days of having like a mainly grass fed cow gone?
Speaker 8 (38:14):
No, definitely not. Obviously, it's one of ours. One of
our selling points is New Zealand Dairy Producers, is that
we we milk our cows off grass, and that's that's
not going to change. The issue is that as time
goes on and we're encouraged to get more efficiency in
our systems and get more production about out of what
we do feed and our genetics improve and our dairy herds,
(38:38):
grass starts to show grass. Only you know there are
some nutritional gaps there and so our job is nutrition consultants,
is to really attempt to fill those gaps and compliment
that pasture to get the best result.
Speaker 4 (38:50):
Hey, Simon Butler from Sales Winslow. Great to catch up.
I mentioned, of course Ross Hyland, the founder and Mournsville.
Hello Ross, if you're listening. Another great eals Winslow man
is the great Graham Smith. Just ask him anyhow. It's
good to good to catch up with a wonderful company.
I'll see you at Field Days because you guys are
attached to the Farmland site site E one oh eight
(39:13):
where we'll be broadcasting from next week. Thanks for your time, Simon.
Speaker 8 (39:16):
No worries it all, Jamie, Thank you very much.
Speaker 4 (39:19):
Thank you, Simon. Hey, and lots of feedback coming in
about my John Roles. I think he's Sir John Roles
these days. Story now there is an ending to this story.
This is the nineteen nineties and Gore Hockenue Radio, ME
and Lee Piper So, the agreasy Auckland lawyer who wouldn't
pay the two hundred and forty bucks, said I don't care.
I said, I'm never playing John Roles again. He said,
I don't care. You just a shitty little radio station.
(39:40):
And Gore and I said to him, one day, one day,
I might be broadcasting to a bigger audience. So smart
asked Auckland lawyer, if you're listening in Auckland, me one,
you nil see you tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (39:55):
Never mansu.
Speaker 1 (39:59):
Catch all them. Latest from the Land, It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mackay. Thanks to Farmland's advice you can
trust products you can count on.
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