March 11, 2026 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Ben Picton, Chris Hipkins, Tracy Brown, Jamie Cunningham, and Chris Russell.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Farmlands, Better Drenched Plans
and better Heard Health.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Start here, Good, good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the Country, brought to you by a Suzu
(00:30):
and Farmlands. Looking forward to spending some time with Farmlands
tomorrow at the Wanaka Show. Six months in a leaky boat.
I hope we don't end up spending six months in
a leaky war in the Middle East. I'm going to
kick off the show with Ben Pickton from Rabobank's Sydney office.
(00:50):
He's their senior economists. Like the New Zealand economic recovery,
how is it being undermined? Well, it's probably quite obvious
by the conflict in the Middle East and what does
war mean for interest rates and inflation. Chris Hipkins, labor leader,
caught up with him at the Golden Shears briefly on
Saturday night. It was good to see him there trying
(01:11):
to improve his rural cred. But has he got rural cred?
We will ask him. Tracy Brown, a chair of Dairy
and z Madamata Kococky encouraging farmers to cast their vote
before the end of play tomorrow for that milk solids
levy vote. Jamie Cunningham PGG writs inter National dairy specialist
and our Ossie correspondent Chris Russell having issues, real issues
(01:33):
across the ditch with fuel. As we all are, we're
so dependent on other nations for our fuel. We've got
all that to do and more. Michelle will be in
here with rural news and we'll have a look at
sports news for you as well before the end of
the hour. But up next we're off to Sydney. Let's
(02:03):
kick off the country with the smart bloke. His name
is Ben Pickton. He's the senior economist for Rabobank. Ben
the New Zealand Economic Recovery. How is the conflict in
the Middle East likely to impact, slash undermine this? Not
really good news, is.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
That, Jamie. Yeah, it's not good news. It's one of
those things that we would certainly prefer hadn't happened. Obviously,
when we talk about conflict in the Middle East, we
straight away think of oil prices, and we have seen
a substantial rise in oil prices. But we've also got
the issue around I guess people getting a little bit
worried about the supply of refined fuels coming out of Asia.
(02:45):
And when you've got those sorts of worries, you would
expect that it does a few things. One is it
might lead to a little bit of panic buying and
fuel hoarding, which you get a temporary increase in economic
activity from that. But then on the other side of it,
people sort of batten down the hatches and go into
siege mode a little bit like during COVID, and that
(03:06):
can give a big hit to the demand side of
the economy. So when we talk about economic growth, what
we're actually talking about is growth in demand. So, yeah,
this certainly does pose a risk of derailing this recovery
that is underway.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
We are so vulnerable here in New Zealand. We're getting
a lot of our fuel from places like our refined
fuel I might add, because we mothboard our refining plant
from the likes of Singapore South Korea. I see South
Koreas pulling back and the export of fuel. Do you think,
for instance, that fuel rationing, Heaven help us, we're going
to go back to Carlos days of the nineteen seventies.
(03:44):
Could fuel rationing be a thing in Australia and New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah, I think that if the issue in the Middle
East isn't resolved soon, we could see things like that
coming back. In work from home mandates. We've seen a
number of Asian countries have already put in place work
from home mandate. So policy measures to try to curb
demand are certainly potentially on the cards. So we want
(04:09):
to see a resolution pretty quickly. Just on the refinery thing,
New Zealand's not alone in shutting down refineries. In Australia,
we used to have eight oil refineries. Now we've only
got two and they exist on subsidies. So across the
developed world sort of during that thirty year period of
trade liberalization, globalization, there was this trend towards, I guess,
(04:33):
doing away with ideas of being self sufficient and relying
on the global market, and to some extent that's come
back to bitis I.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
See Brent Kroben, I had a look earlier this morning.
Was sitting at US ninety three or barrel. It peaked
at about one hundred and twenty. Remembering when the war started,
I think it was sitting at at about seventy. Is
it surprising that it hasn't gone beyond the late eighties
early nineties.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Yeah, maybe it is a little bit surprised given the
hit to global supply from the straight of Horror moves
being closed. So around about twenty to twenty five percent
of global crew comes through that part of the world,
and similar volumes of refined products, but there's also a
bunch of other things that higher proportions of various commodities
(05:19):
come through that waterway as well. Fertilizers obviously is one
that gets talked about, but also helium and knapsa and
methanol and all sorts of things. So it probably is
a little bit of a surprise to me that the
move hasn't been maintained. The reason why we've seen a
big pullback recently is a couple of things. One, we
(05:39):
had some comments from Donald Trump saying that he thinks
that the war is very complete, so markets maybe latched
onto that a little bit very optimistically. And the other
thing is a coordinated release of reserves by the G seven.
So they're looking at releasing I think it's around about
four hundred million barrels into the market.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Now.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
That's certainly helpful, but the issue with that is that
that is an issue of stock, and the problem that
we have is an issue of flow, not stock. So
it helps, but it's only a temporary fix.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Let's have a look at the effect war has on,
for instance, economies and more particularly interest rates, because history
would suggest, unlike what the president is suggesting, that this
thing could drag on.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Yeah, it certainly has that potential. We just don't know
until we know there's At the moment. Reading the headlines
this morning, it does seem like the Iranians escalating rather
than de escalating. So at the moment, I'm not super
optimistic that we're about to see a resolution in short order.
The impacts of oil shocks on economies, they can vary
(06:51):
a little bit, but we can look back to times
like in nineteen seventies in the early nineteen eighties to
get a little bit of an idea of the sorts
of things that happened. Oil is energy. It's the most
important energy source in the world by far, and energy
is an input to all production. So anything that you
(07:11):
want to make, you need energy. So when you have
an oil shock, it kind of reverberates through supply chains,
even in ways that we don't really think about. So
all of the intermediate goods that are made from petrochemicals
and plastics and all that sort of stuff. Higher oil
prices or lack of availability has an effect on those
(07:32):
and then you've got to overlay the higher energy cost
aspect as well. So we certainly expect it to be
inflationary and as a result, we've seen market expectations of
rate hikes in New Zealand being brought forward even though
the economy is not firing on all cylinders yet.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
And that is the last thing we need. Being picked
on out of Rabobanks, Sydney Office. Thanks for some of
your wisdom today on the country. Appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Cheers Jamiel. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Good on your bean. It's fifteen after twelve. You may
know it better as quarter after twelve here on the country.
Up next to Bloke I caught up with last weekend
and Masterton for the Golden Shares. Labor leader Chris Sipkins
he wants to be the prime minister come November seven,
But who else might be lining up for the job.
We'll ask him next. He is the Labor Party leader, Chrisipkins,
(08:47):
but will he be our next prime minister? Let's ask him, Chris,
good to see you along with Karen MacNulty at the
Golden Shares. Is this part of building your rural cred?
Speaker 5 (08:57):
Oh, Karen's been trying to get me along to the
Golden Ars for ages. This was the first time that
we actually managed to make it work and it was
an absolutely incredible event. I got to say, really impressed
with those years, the speed with which they work and
you could sort of see, particularly as they were going
through the you know, the last competition that I got
to see when you know they got get pathway partway
(09:18):
through it and you could just see them really starting
to hit the wall, but they just pushed on through.
It's just incredible stuff.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Do you get sick of people, namely me buying you
a sausage roll? I've got to cover my basis just
in case you are the next prime minister.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
It was a very nice gestures.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
Thank you, JB.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
Although I have cut back on the sausage rolls very
heavily in the last little while after putting on about
ten kilo's last election year, I'm going to drive very
hard not to do the same.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
This timmer out how did you get on? And I
cheekily call it the sleep over, the love and with
Federated farmers. This is one of the initiatives that Joe
Luxton is doing to try and make labor a bit
more farmer friendly. I think it was Wayne Langford, I
hope I'm not misquoting them who said you you were
able to get up and speak for half an hour
three quarters of an hour without notes and in an
(10:05):
informative way about farming. And you on this show have
admitted that you guys dropped the ball in the last government.
So how much are you prepared to become farmer friendly?
Speaker 5 (10:19):
Well, I think we certainly didn't have the relationship with
the farming community that any government should happen. As I said,
when you're in government, you've got to govern for the
whole country, not just for the people who vote for you.
So regardless of whether or not the people who are
running our farms vote for us, we've got to be
able to work with them. So I made it a
priority after the last election to get out go do
a lot of farm visits. I've visited heaps of farms,
(10:40):
you know, all different types of farms, from small, little
family farms to a big high country farms to you know,
sort of every level of dairy farming, you name it,
and I really enjoyed those visits. I've learned a lot
about farming. I've learned a lot about the issues that
affect farmers, and I have to say I've been really
impressed with some of the environmental protection work that I've
seen farming community doing, which I don't think they get
(11:02):
enough credit for.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Are you going to get New Zealand's most high profile
farmer to stand for you in West Coast Tasman?
Speaker 5 (11:11):
I think Wayne himself has said that he has a
nominated for that, but you know, plenty of people speculate
on that. We don't normally comment on nominations or the
selection process until candidates have been selected.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
They've sort of left that one open a week. But anyhow,
let's move on. Do you think I know you want
to be prime minister come November the seventh? Do you
know who I reckon also wants to be Prime minister
come November the seventh? And I'm not talking about Christopher Luxon.
I think Winston wants the job.
Speaker 5 (11:43):
Well, you know, he's certainly not going to get that
job in a labor government. I can categorically rule that out.
Christopher Luckxon, on the other hand, it's probably a very
good question to be asking him.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
So do you think this is like a legacy election
for Winston? It's his final shot. Could you see a scenario,
for instance, where New Zealand first polls really well, acts
perhaps less so a national having a declining vote in
Winston gets to call the shots and one of his
bargaining tools is I want to be prime minister. Do
you think Christopher Luxen would wear that.
Speaker 5 (12:14):
I think a lot of Kiwis have had enough of
Winston Peters and David Seymore are basically holding the country
to rents and calling all of the shots, and they
want to get back to stable, sensible, mature, growing up government,
which they haven't seen much of over the last two
and a half years. So my pitch to Kiwis at
the coming election is if you want to end this
circus and you want to get back to good government
(12:35):
that works with people, that focuses on making good, solid,
sensible decisions, that's not interested in division or in populism.
They're voting labours the way to achieve it.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Yeah, but how are you going to do all those
achieve all those goals if your coalition partners and they
will be out to Party Mari and the Greens. They're
hardly stable.
Speaker 6 (12:54):
Well.
Speaker 5 (12:54):
I think during an election campaign you go out to
win as many votes as you possibly can and you
do draw some you know, some lines in the sand.
Christopher Luxan basically they haven't had any lines in the sand.
He's let David see Moore and Winston Peters call all
the shots. And that's not my approach now. I think
people should get the sort of government that they vote for.
Far more people voted for National the last election that
(13:14):
voted the New zeal Person X combined, but you wouldn't
know that from the way the government's been operating.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Let's perhaps just finish on the COVID inquiry. You were
last man standing? Will you hung out to dry your
mate's just sender and grant one know where to be seen?
Speaker 5 (13:30):
Oh? I mean they've moved on with their lives and
that's fair enough.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
They're still responsible.
Speaker 5 (13:34):
Surely there's been a lot of desperate spin on the
COVID inquiry. You know, if you look at that, there
was a hand picked by the current government with the
terms of reference deliberately designed to try and make the
previous government look bad and their hand picked inquiry came
back and said, actually New Zealand's COVID response was one
of the best in the world and we should all
be proud of it as a country. There are some
(13:55):
things that we could do differently and that we should
learn from, and I absolutely accept that. But actually the
COVID the inquiry report was pretty damn positive and so
you know, I support it. I think it was at
the end of the day. While I was skeptical about
it when it was first mooted, and I think you
and I might have had a conversation about that at
the time. Overall, I think they did a damn good job.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Are you going down to Dunedin coming down to Duneden
where I'm based Regent Theater April the sixteenth and evening
with Jacinda and Grant. Did you know that they're doing
a comeback?
Speaker 5 (14:25):
I think that's that's something to do probably the book
tour for both of them, and you know, and that's good.
They both were very good, both both well worth a read.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
Chris Hipkins, I thank you very much for your time
and in all sincerity, it was good to see you
at that iconic rural event. The Golden Shares and master
than last weekend.
Speaker 5 (14:44):
Yeah, great to talk to you, to Jamie, with no
doubt as election year, so we'll be talking more. I'm
sure we will be. Bye bye bye bite.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Thank you, Chris. Pretty damn good, pretty damn positive. I
think were as words for the COVID inquiry report them.
I'm not sure where the chip he's rewriting history there
or not. Yeah, I think the biggest problem with the
second Labor government of that term was maybe not even
the COVID response, although they locked us down for way
(15:13):
too long, especially the poor old Aucklanders, But it was
the free for all with the money that is still
biting us in the bum to this day and will
for another generation, I think. Anyhow, that's just my opinion.
You heard Chris Hipkins up next on the Country. Who
have we got Tracy Brown, madam add a dairy farmer.
(15:35):
Dairy farmers, You need to get off your butt if
you haven't voted, because that big milk solid Selevy voter,
I think it closes. Will check this with Tracy five
pm tomorrow night. You need to get the vote done.
We're going to head to Lawrence, one of my favorite
towns in this Country. Jamie cunning In is there from
PGG writes and Chris Russell is our Australian correspondent. Some
(15:57):
of those Aussie cropping farmers are having real issues with
fuel as they head into their seeding season. All that
to do, plus rural news and sports news as well
before the end of the hour here on the Country,
(16:27):
That's all that. Tracy Brown is a Madame Matter dairy farmer,
also the chair of Dairy and Z. It is your
last week to vote in the milk Solids levy vote.
In fact closer play tomorrow the voting closers. Tracy, I
put it to you and you'll be far too modest
(16:48):
to save this, but I think you're going to romp
home in this vote.
Speaker 7 (16:52):
Oh Jamie. I mean it would be great if we did,
but I would never assume that. I'd just really encourage
everybody to get out and vote. Everybody has an opportunity
that pays milk solids and obviously we're looking for strong mandate,
so as many farmers that can vote as possible would
be great.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
I think the wool industry is a good example of
an industry that dropped the ball when it came to
industry good levies.
Speaker 7 (17:19):
Yeah, I think the important thing for farmers to think
about is, you know, who else is the organization that
speaks on behalf of all of dairy and you know,
and that.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Is our role.
Speaker 7 (17:30):
So if we don't exist, then that doesn't happen. So
you know, that's our role is to do the collective
work for the sector that individual farmers can't do. And
we did that piece of research you're a member journey
last year that did show a significant sevenfold return on
the investment that farmers put in, and so I think
(17:50):
that's significant and hopefully farmers value the work that we
do well.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
If it's of any consolation to you. I haven't spoken
to any dairy farmers yet who aren't voting yet, So
anyhow close the play tomorrow? If you haven't voted, or
you haven't even got your forms or whatever, where do
you go to make sure you can make your voice
count YEP.
Speaker 7 (18:09):
So it's all been run through elections in Z so
same as any director election. So if they searched back
through their emails for elections in Z if they haven't voted,
they've probably also got notifications coming on their phone, so
check their phone. Anyone that has voted doesn't get a
notification anymore, so it'll only be if you haven't voted,
(18:30):
you might be getting a notification. So we'll reach out
to one of our staff members to get guidance on
how where to find your code and all that kind
of stuff. That's not a problem, yep.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
And remember voting closes close a play tomorrow, E contractor
econ tracker. Let's get it right. This is the kind
of the economic tool that you used to track the
cost of production. The latest quarterly update has been released
that break even milk price interestingly has dropped, which is good.
And I'm putting it to you Tracy, that this is
(19:02):
off the back of lower interest rates.
Speaker 7 (19:05):
Yes it is, because I don't I think most people
would argue the farm and put costs haven't gone down,
that interest rates have slightly eased. So yet a new
fullcast break even malt price is eight dollars thirty six,
so that has come down a little bit. That the
average payout received is nine to ninety two, so that
implies as sort of an average surplus of around the
(19:27):
dollar fifty six for twenty five twenty six season. So
that's good news, and we're forecasting for next season it
to be eight thirty one break even. Malt price at
this stagea down slightly again, but you know, there's a
lot of unreasd and a lot of uncertainty as we
know at the moment, Jamie, so anything could happen.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Yeah, not to mention rising fuel prices, which is going
to be a bit of a fly in the ointment there.
As I said, you're a Madamata dairy farmer. It's been
a very good season around most of the country in
terms of growing. I know some of the cropping and
arable farmers haven't enjoyed it so much, but if you're
into pastor or farming, it's been pretty good. How's your
season gone.
Speaker 7 (20:08):
We've had a really great summer. Phenomenal summer actually, Jamie.
We've had regular rainfall all the way through. It's getting
a bit all to me now. Temperatures dropped in the
last couple of weeks. We have got our may sylogen
recalled yield this year, so that was pleasing, and I
think most people it's been a pretty good season around
(20:28):
the traps, which is you know, it's nice to have
that in the bag for people.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
Happy days for the dairy farmers, especially in the Waikato region,
the dairy powerhouse province of our nation. Tracy Brown, Chair
of Dairy and ZED, thanks for your time and remember
dairy farmers. Voting closes five pm tomorrow for that milk
Solids Levy vote. Good luck, Chier, Thanks Jamie, Thank you Tracy.
Twenty seven away from one. You're with the country right,
(20:55):
lots of feedback. Now we're getting Hello Michelle, good afternoon.
Now we're getting a new system. We're operating off next gen.
I know that means nothing to you guys, but it's
a system we've been operating on for about twenty years
before that. In my Hokenwy days, we had Master Control.
We've got a new system going in. It'll be in
(21:15):
here on Monday, called Zetta. I don't know if I
can handle the new technology, but I'm at the one
of Kashow tomorrow so it won't affect me tomorrow, but
it'll have to be on the game. And it also
means that I haven't got access unfortunately in the studio
to the text machine. But my personal texts have been
running a bit hot. Here's one from a leading New
Zealand farmer who I won't name. He said, Napkins is
(21:39):
like O'Connor, delusional. He is sort of rewriting history.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Awe.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
But if you don't mind me saying so, Chris Hipkins,
regarding the COVID inquiry, I don't think it was pretty
darn positive. But anyhow, what you got, Michelle, Because you
have got access to the text machine.
Speaker 8 (21:56):
I do, and I've had to filter through. There's definitely
some here I cannot read because every second word is
a word that'll get us canceled, so I better not
read those ones. But one here actually interestingly, Jamie, I
want know your thoughts on this. Someone has said, I
don't think Winston wants to be PM, Jamie. He does
a very good job as Foreign Minister. Do you think
he would turn it down?
Speaker 2 (22:16):
No?
Speaker 8 (22:17):
No, I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
It's the one thing that's eluded his political career. He's
been acting Prime minister. Don't put No, he'll hate me
saying this and hope it doesn't get back to him.
Given a chance to maneuver his way into the top job,
he will do it. There you go. That's my opinion.
That's only an opinion. What else you got?
Speaker 8 (22:37):
Nothing is a problem when you are happy to look
straight at the camera and just lie Hipkins's very selective memory.
Speaker 2 (22:43):
Yeah, see the COVID inquiry for me, as I said
a week bit earlier. You went in here, look up
the first government which Winston was a part of. They
largely got it right. In fact, you could argue they
got it perfectly right simply because fifty percent of the country,
including all rural New Zealand Southland Heaven help us Party
voted Labor. So you people out on the provinces were
(23:06):
quite happy with what they've done it. Admittedly, the Labor
Party under Bridges and Mullah and Judith Collins in disarray.
So you voted to Cindy. You gave her an outright majority,
more than fifty percent of the vote. Winston was in
that first government and he was a useful handbreak. He
wasn't there in the second one, and they ran amok
(23:27):
as bad as the COVID handling was. In the lockdowns
and the pulpit of truth. The economic Grant Robertson, in
my mind is the biggest villain out of us anyhow.
That's just my opinion. Once again, you'll are welcome to yours.
You can send it through on five nine Up next
Rural news and sports news. Welcome back to the Country,
(23:52):
brought to you by Isuzu and Farmlands. Looking forward to
broadcasting from the Farmland site at the Wanner Show tomorrow.
The life of the Traveling Salesman continues, but we've got
to get through today's show first. Very shortly, the latest
in rural news with Michelle and will update sport for you.
Here's a message for you though, especially for you North
(24:12):
Island farmers, because this effects you worse than the South
Island farmers. Facial XMA can cause big headaches on the farm,
and because the signs aren't always obvious, it can creep
up on you and end up costing a lot, both
in production and in animal health. In the first episode
of a new podcast series from Beef and Lamb, New
Zealand and the Country, my offsideer Hamish mackay sits down
(24:34):
with principal scientist Kara Brosnahan and Senior Advisor Farm Engagement
Kristen Kirkpatrick. They break down what facial XMA is, what
causes it, the risks for your stock, and why planning
ahead is the best way to protect your animals. They
also explain why This isn't just a North Island issue anymore. Yes,
(24:57):
it is creeping south. You'll hear how the the Eliminating
Facial Exma Impacts Program is helping farmers by looking at
genetic solutions and how seven years of research and industry
teamwork starting to pay off. To learn more, tune in
to the first episode of our new fi mythbusting series,
Facial Exma one O one, brought to you by Beef
(25:17):
and Lamb New Zealand on the Country podcast and you
can find that on iHeart.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
What the Country's World Us with cub Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on lawn Bower brands it Steel for dot
co dot Nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Have you got a cup of tea behind that laptop
or is it starting to smoke? With feedback from Chippy.
Speaker 8 (25:40):
It's getting there. There's quite about we can talk about.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Well exciting And I just got a text through on
in Line to maybe adjudicate to maybe I don't know
what I do want to count my you know what,
does it count chickens before they hatch? But I'm in
Line and it'll be a fun job to adjudicate. Slash
MC the debate between Taylor and Shane Jones. How good
will that be? Over the gold mining in central Otago
(26:05):
where I'm headed this afternoon? Right heo, what do you
got have? I played the Rural News sting you didn't?
Speaker 5 (26:10):
All right?
Speaker 2 (26:10):
Where you go?
Speaker 8 (26:11):
Okay? So the balance farm environment towards continue. Last night
it was the Greater Wellington region where Clarence and Alice
Stult were named the regional Supreme winners. Next up as Tartanuki,
which has been how tonight and all Supreme Regional winners
are in the running for the Gordon Stevenson Trophy at
the National Showcase in christ Church in July. Some other
things kicking off over the next couple of days. Rural
Games kicks off in Palmerston North. Of course Rowena will
(26:34):
be up there, I'm sure throwing gun boots or something.
We have won a grand Peace show tomorrow at East
Coast Young Farmer's Regional Final is this.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
Yeah, there's a lot going on and sorry I can't
make the Rural Games this year. It's a great event
in the Parmi North Square. Not only Rowena, Wiggy another
friend of the show will be He'll be making his
way up today he does a very good job of
the wood, the wood shopping and the fencing. He's probably
not the best sharing commentator, but I'm not there this year,
(27:01):
so we'll let him loose on the speed share as well.
He'll love that. Go well. Wiggy Right has sport.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
Sport on the country with AFCO invested in your farming success.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Maana pacifica coach Tana Umaga is sidestepping suggestions he will
join the All Blacks coaching staff. The former All Blacks
captain is honored to be in the conversation as a
potential call up to Dave Rannie's team, but says he
doesn't deal in rumor. Heith Mills is resigning as New
Zealand Cricket Players Association Chief Executive after almost twenty five
(27:35):
years in the role. Mills will continue to work closely
with players through his position as Executive Chairman of the
World Cricketers Association. Up next on the country. We are
heading to Lawrence in South Otago. Will I go the
Lawrence Way to Wanaka or will I go through Middle
March or will I go through Palmerston. There's three ways
(27:58):
to go, of course, Michelle, I'll decide that I do
love the drive through Middle March, the Rock and Pillar
country there. Anyhow, that's my problem, that's the first world problem.
Up next Jamie Cunningham, who's in Lawrence monthly here on
the country we have a look at the rural livestock
(28:18):
market with the team from PGG Rights and Jamie Cunningham
is the national dairy Specialist. He's based out of Fielding,
one of my favorite farming towns in this country, but
he's not there today. He's in another great town, Lawrence,
venue for the Century Farm and Station Awards. And for
a dairy specialist, You've gone to a beef sale, Jamie,
(28:38):
how does that work you?
Speaker 4 (28:39):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, No, I'm down here today for
someone Telvis Goose Sail with a couple of clients to
have a bit of a look and in doing some
dairy stuff. I'm dwn here so working working a few
things into into the trip, which is which is good.
Speaker 5 (28:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
Let's start with the beef market. It is running hot
at the moment.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yeah, very strong right across the country. Really, it's it's
pretty exciting to see the prices we've achieved sort of
from the spring and then right through to the summer.
But for it to be you know, to be continuing
for as long as it has is. Yeah, it's something
we haven't seen for well for a long time if ever.
And just you know, we're starting out run winnasales in
(29:23):
the North Island and they started off with a real
real flying staff and another reasonable sailing fielding today are
first fielding fear today and and all boy, all accounts,
you wouldn't talking very promising there for the for the
one guenegs.
Speaker 2 (29:40):
And there is a real crossover between the beef and
the dairy industries because we are seeing more and more
beef genetics being used over dairy cows so that we
solve the bobby calf issue.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
Yeah, that dairy beef spaces is becoming. You know, it's
just growing from strength to really and you know we've
seen it this year. A lot more calves read and
they've all found homes and there'll be another sort of
I guess a shift of calves that will get shifted
off and sold to new farms through the autumn bar
(30:14):
and we have quite a few that come up into
the North Island out of parts of the South Island.
And yeah, without them with the ready struggling to numbers.
So the beef industry very much is very reliant on
that dairy beef and it's great to see those numbers
are growing and on on a pretty positive beef market too.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
The cow cockies must be pretty happy at the moment.
They've got a rising payout. Hopefully it's a rising payout
as long as Trump's war doesn't go on for too long.
And obviously if you're a Fonterra farmer shareholder, you're about
to get quite a big check.
Speaker 4 (30:48):
Yeah, that positively out there in that dairy space is
really exciting and everyone's everyone's you know it. They've jumped
on and on it to the ride. There's been quite
a few farm sales, which is has been pleasing, and yeah,
everything everything's looking good. That frontier money that's about to
come under the system, you know, people will use us
(31:10):
them in different ways. Some people will be buying new property,
some people will be doing you know, I guess you'd
say development workovers, will be trying to reduce some debt.
But it's a great place to be for sure. At
the moment, it's really exciting and the pay it's looking promising.
Moving forward to and into next season.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Jamie Cunningham there, national dairy specialist for PGG rights and
based out of fielding that he's in the beautiful town
of Lawrence today. Really looking forward to those Century and
Station Farm Awards coming up in May as we celebrate
farming families where the farm has been in the family
name for one hundred years or more. Enjoy your day
in Lawrence, Jamie, thanks very much, Jamie. Good on you,
(31:52):
Jamie to Jamie, right, it is coming up to turn
away from mine. Up next, we wrap up with our
Elsie correspondent Chris Russell. Is there, EUSI correspondent Chris Russell
and Chris, like the rest of the world, we're all
keeping a keen eye on happenings in the Middle East,
(32:15):
and that's not without ramifications. For instance, for Ossie cropping
farmers and their busy season is just coming up. Diesel
and ureas shortages threaten the planting season in April, which
is just around the corner.
Speaker 6 (32:28):
Yeah, that's exactly right, and it's not I mean, the
price of diesel, of course, is a concern, especially when
the grain prices aren't that special of the moment or
though they're likely to go up now. But it's just
physically getting hold of the diesel. There are a number
of the big suppliers of diesel. United Petroleum, for example,
have said they are not supplying any of their if
(32:49):
you're like outside people, they non independent contractors, only supplying
their own suppliers now and a number of others have
cut rationing to half the normal amounts. One farmer who
normally he takes fifty five thousand liters of diesel a
week during the planning season is said that he's likely
to get less than half that, So you know, it's
(33:10):
that's one issue. And the other issue, of course is urea. Jamie.
We completely rely on imports for urea and fertilizer generally,
but particularly urea, and the Middle East produces about forty
five percent of the world's urea exports. Now, most of
our urea is put on in April May, when the
winter crops are being sown. Urea prices have jumped, but then,
(33:34):
in fact it's not just about the jumping price again,
it's the fact that Australia could even run out of
urea fertilizer before that planting is well, certainly it's get started,
but before it's certainly before it's completed. So you know,
there are a number of things that farmers are saying
and if we don't get any planting in the ground,
well there's nothing we can do about that. Then we
(33:55):
don't get any harvest, and then we really are talking
food security. Issue is rationing all sorts of things that
we haven't seen potentially since the war. Now I'm not
suggesting this is all necessarily going to happen, because no
government could sit by and let all that happen. But
some things are beyond the government's control. And despite that,
Anthony Alvin Easy announced yesterday the Australia is not at war.
(34:19):
We've supplied missiles and wedge tail aircraft early warning to
and also personnel to go with those things to UAE.
But they're saying that's all for defense of people who
live in UAE and it's not off for a war
against Iran. Well, pretty fine line, I would have thought.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Jamie, absolutely right. Let's move from the cropping farmers to
the sheep farmers. Twenty three percent of your sheep meat
exports are also under threat, yes.
Speaker 6 (34:47):
And so this is also a significant cost. Fifteen billion
dollars worth of Australian trade goes to the Middle East,
and a big part of that is sheep meat exports,
and you know they're saying, well, we're just not going
to get them in there. We can't get them through
both either the sewers root or through the straits of Hamuz,
(35:11):
and everyone who's saying, well, we really should be thinking
about what we're going to do with all that extra
sheep meet because they are major purchases of our sheep
meets and we may not be going to go to
see that market even kick off lett alone grow in
the coming year.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yes, we do live in a troubled world. Chris Russell.
Let's talk about your new leader of the National Party,
traditionally like your rural party. The guy's name, I think
is Matt Canavan and he must have, if nothing else
a good sense of you humor, because he's calling for
more babies and better assie jokes.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
Yeah, well that's what he said.
Speaker 4 (35:51):
You know.
Speaker 6 (35:51):
Obviously he's also looking beyond that as well. But he's
really trying to appeal to the people who have been
acted to the one nation very anti woke, but in
policies but which they will never have to put in
power because they will never be in government. So it's
easy to make all sorts of statements, and I'm sure
(36:12):
you and I do it around the dinner table every
Saturday night. We're never going to have to put it
into power, whereas the National Party are part of the coalition,
and so he is tried to counter that growth. Now
there is a big bar election coming up in May,
down in the seat of Farah, which is down in
that southwest agricultural corner of New South Wales, which has
(36:33):
been conservatively represented for seventy five years and the last
twelve i think by the retiring former leader of the
Liberal Party, Susan Lees. So that's going to be contested
and all the predictions are saying that one nation are
going to win that seat. So his is the last
attempt by the National Party or the coalition through the
(36:55):
National Party to attract that right and vote that right
faction vote back to the National Party which has been
their traditional home. So yes, there's a little bit of
humor throne in there, but said somewhat with a guide
to the fact that these sort of people out there
really appreciate the fact we need more true Ossi babies
and we need better Ozzie jokes. So I can't think
(37:17):
as you get better than Jacob. See, I'm money used
to mine and yours they're always well that's.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
The case of ABP anyone but Pauline. Anyhow, I've got
to go. Chris Russell, thanks for your time. We'll catch
you again next.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
Week, no problem, Good on you mate.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
Right.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
I are wrapping the Country with some of your feedback
on the text machine which is sort of working and
sort or not when he wants to put PM on
his headstone and another one, Jamie Winston would make a
very good prime minister. It sounds to me that you're
hedging your bets between Luxon and Hipkins. No I'm not
really And as far as labor being a sensible government
year right, well selection year, I've got to be apolitical
(37:56):
sort of. Catch you tomorrow from the one OFKA show.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Catch all the latest from the Land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mackay. Thanks to Farmlands, better Drenched Plans
and better heard health. Start here.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Farmlands, Better Drenched Plans
and better Heard Health.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Start here, Good, good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the Country, brought to you by a Suzu
(00:30):
and Farmlands. Looking forward to spending some time with Farmlands
tomorrow at the Wanaka Show. Six months in a leaky boat.
I hope we don't end up spending six months in
a leaky war in the Middle East. I'm going to
kick off the show with Ben Pickton from Rabobank's Sydney office.
(00:50):
He's their senior economists. Like the New Zealand economic recovery,
how is it being undermined? Well, it's probably quite obvious
by the conflict in the Middle East and what does
war mean for interest rates and inflation. Chris Hipkins, labor leader,
caught up with him at the Golden Shears briefly on
Saturday night. It was good to see him there trying
(01:11):
to improve his rural cred. But has he got rural cred?
We will ask him. Tracy Brown, a chair of Dairy
and z Madamata Kococky encouraging farmers to cast their vote
before the end of play tomorrow for that milk solids
levy vote. Jamie Cunningham PGG writs inter National dairy specialist
and our Ossie correspondent Chris Russell having issues, real issues
(01:33):
across the ditch with fuel. As we all are, we're
so dependent on other nations for our fuel. We've got
all that to do and more. Michelle will be in
here with rural news and we'll have a look at
sports news for you as well before the end of
the hour. But up next we're off to Sydney. Let's
(02:03):
kick off the country with the smart bloke. His name
is Ben Pickton. He's the senior economist for Rabobank. Ben
the New Zealand Economic Recovery. How is the conflict in
the Middle East likely to impact, slash undermine this? Not
really good news, is.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
That, Jamie. Yeah, it's not good news. It's one of
those things that we would certainly prefer hadn't happened. Obviously,
when we talk about conflict in the Middle East, we
straight away think of oil prices, and we have seen
a substantial rise in oil prices. But we've also got
the issue around I guess people getting a little bit
worried about the supply of refined fuels coming out of Asia.
(02:45):
And when you've got those sorts of worries, you would
expect that it does a few things. One is it
might lead to a little bit of panic buying and
fuel hoarding, which you get a temporary increase in economic
activity from that. But then on the other side of it,
people sort of batten down the hatches and go into
siege mode a little bit like during COVID, and that
(03:06):
can give a big hit to the demand side of
the economy. So when we talk about economic growth, what
we're actually talking about is growth in demand. So, yeah,
this certainly does pose a risk of derailing this recovery
that is underway.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
We are so vulnerable here in New Zealand. We're getting
a lot of our fuel from places like our refined
fuel I might add, because we mothboard our refining plant
from the likes of Singapore South Korea. I see South
Koreas pulling back and the export of fuel. Do you think,
for instance, that fuel rationing, Heaven help us, we're going
to go back to Carlos days of the nineteen seventies.
(03:44):
Could fuel rationing be a thing in Australia and New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
Yeah, I think that if the issue in the Middle
East isn't resolved soon, we could see things like that
coming back. In work from home mandates. We've seen a
number of Asian countries have already put in place work
from home mandate. So policy measures to try to curb
demand are certainly potentially on the cards. So we want
(04:09):
to see a resolution pretty quickly. Just on the refinery thing,
New Zealand's not alone in shutting down refineries. In Australia,
we used to have eight oil refineries. Now we've only
got two and they exist on subsidies. So across the
developed world sort of during that thirty year period of
trade liberalization, globalization, there was this trend towards, I guess,
(04:33):
doing away with ideas of being self sufficient and relying
on the global market, and to some extent that's come
back to bitis I.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
See Brent Kroben, I had a look earlier this morning.
Was sitting at US ninety three or barrel. It peaked
at about one hundred and twenty. Remembering when the war started,
I think it was sitting at at about seventy. Is
it surprising that it hasn't gone beyond the late eighties
early nineties.
Speaker 3 (04:58):
Yeah, maybe it is a little bit surprised given the
hit to global supply from the straight of Horror moves
being closed. So around about twenty to twenty five percent
of global crew comes through that part of the world,
and similar volumes of refined products, but there's also a
bunch of other things that higher proportions of various commodities
(05:19):
come through that waterway as well. Fertilizers obviously is one
that gets talked about, but also helium and knapsa and
methanol and all sorts of things. So it probably is
a little bit of a surprise to me that the
move hasn't been maintained. The reason why we've seen a
big pullback recently is a couple of things. One, we
(05:39):
had some comments from Donald Trump saying that he thinks
that the war is very complete, so markets maybe latched
onto that a little bit very optimistically. And the other
thing is a coordinated release of reserves by the G seven.
So they're looking at releasing I think it's around about
four hundred million barrels into the market.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Now.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
That's certainly helpful, but the issue with that is that
that is an issue of stock, and the problem that
we have is an issue of flow, not stock. So
it helps, but it's only a temporary fix.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Let's have a look at the effect war has on,
for instance, economies and more particularly interest rates, because history
would suggest, unlike what the president is suggesting, that this
thing could drag on.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
Yeah, it certainly has that potential. We just don't know
until we know there's At the moment. Reading the headlines
this morning, it does seem like the Iranians escalating rather
than de escalating. So at the moment, I'm not super
optimistic that we're about to see a resolution in short order.
The impacts of oil shocks on economies, they can vary
(06:51):
a little bit, but we can look back to times
like in nineteen seventies in the early nineteen eighties to
get a little bit of an idea of the sorts
of things that happened. Oil is energy. It's the most
important energy source in the world by far, and energy
is an input to all production. So anything that you
(07:11):
want to make, you need energy. So when you have
an oil shock, it kind of reverberates through supply chains,
even in ways that we don't really think about. So
all of the intermediate goods that are made from petrochemicals
and plastics and all that sort of stuff. Higher oil
prices or lack of availability has an effect on those
(07:32):
and then you've got to overlay the higher energy cost
aspect as well. So we certainly expect it to be
inflationary and as a result, we've seen market expectations of
rate hikes in New Zealand being brought forward even though
the economy is not firing on all cylinders yet.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
And that is the last thing we need. Being picked
on out of Rabobanks, Sydney Office. Thanks for some of
your wisdom today on the country. Appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Cheers Jamiel. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Good on your bean. It's fifteen after twelve. You may
know it better as quarter after twelve here on the country.
Up next to Bloke I caught up with last weekend
and Masterton for the Golden Shares. Labor leader Chris Sipkins
he wants to be the prime minister come November seven,
But who else might be lining up for the job.
We'll ask him next. He is the Labor Party leader, Chrisipkins,
(08:47):
but will he be our next prime minister? Let's ask him, Chris,
good to see you along with Karen MacNulty at the
Golden Shares. Is this part of building your rural cred?
Speaker 5 (08:57):
Oh, Karen's been trying to get me along to the
Golden Ars for ages. This was the first time that
we actually managed to make it work and it was
an absolutely incredible event. I got to say, really impressed
with those years, the speed with which they work and
you could sort of see, particularly as they were going
through the you know, the last competition that I got
to see when you know they got get pathway partway
(09:18):
through it and you could just see them really starting
to hit the wall, but they just pushed on through.
It's just incredible stuff.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Do you get sick of people, namely me buying you
a sausage roll? I've got to cover my basis just
in case you are the next prime minister.
Speaker 5 (09:33):
It was a very nice gestures.
Speaker 4 (09:34):
Thank you, JB.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
Although I have cut back on the sausage rolls very
heavily in the last little while after putting on about
ten kilo's last election year, I'm going to drive very
hard not to do the same.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
This timmer out how did you get on? And I
cheekily call it the sleep over, the love and with
Federated farmers. This is one of the initiatives that Joe
Luxton is doing to try and make labor a bit
more farmer friendly. I think it was Wayne Langford, I
hope I'm not misquoting them who said you you were
able to get up and speak for half an hour
three quarters of an hour without notes and in an
(10:05):
informative way about farming. And you on this show have
admitted that you guys dropped the ball in the last government.
So how much are you prepared to become farmer friendly?
Speaker 5 (10:19):
Well, I think we certainly didn't have the relationship with
the farming community that any government should happen. As I said,
when you're in government, you've got to govern for the
whole country, not just for the people who vote for you.
So regardless of whether or not the people who are
running our farms vote for us, we've got to be
able to work with them. So I made it a
priority after the last election to get out go do
a lot of farm visits. I've visited heaps of farms,
(10:40):
you know, all different types of farms, from small, little
family farms to a big high country farms to you know,
sort of every level of dairy farming, you name it,
and I really enjoyed those visits. I've learned a lot
about farming. I've learned a lot about the issues that
affect farmers, and I have to say I've been really
impressed with some of the environmental protection work that I've
seen farming community doing, which I don't think they get
(11:02):
enough credit for.
Speaker 2 (11:03):
Are you going to get New Zealand's most high profile
farmer to stand for you in West Coast Tasman?
Speaker 5 (11:11):
I think Wayne himself has said that he has a
nominated for that, but you know, plenty of people speculate
on that. We don't normally comment on nominations or the
selection process until candidates have been selected.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
They've sort of left that one open a week. But anyhow,
let's move on. Do you think I know you want
to be prime minister come November the seventh? Do you
know who I reckon also wants to be Prime minister
come November the seventh? And I'm not talking about Christopher Luxon.
I think Winston wants the job.
Speaker 5 (11:43):
Well, you know, he's certainly not going to get that
job in a labor government. I can categorically rule that out.
Christopher Luckxon, on the other hand, it's probably a very
good question to be asking him.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
So do you think this is like a legacy election
for Winston? It's his final shot. Could you see a scenario,
for instance, where New Zealand first polls really well, acts
perhaps less so a national having a declining vote in
Winston gets to call the shots and one of his
bargaining tools is I want to be prime minister. Do
you think Christopher Luxen would wear that.
Speaker 5 (12:14):
I think a lot of Kiwis have had enough of
Winston Peters and David Seymore are basically holding the country
to rents and calling all of the shots, and they
want to get back to stable, sensible, mature, growing up government,
which they haven't seen much of over the last two
and a half years. So my pitch to Kiwis at
the coming election is if you want to end this
circus and you want to get back to good government
(12:35):
that works with people, that focuses on making good, solid,
sensible decisions, that's not interested in division or in populism.
They're voting labours the way to achieve it.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
Yeah, but how are you going to do all those
achieve all those goals if your coalition partners and they
will be out to Party Mari and the Greens. They're
hardly stable.
Speaker 6 (12:54):
Well.
Speaker 5 (12:54):
I think during an election campaign you go out to
win as many votes as you possibly can and you
do draw some you know, some lines in the sand.
Christopher Luxan basically they haven't had any lines in the sand.
He's let David see Moore and Winston Peters call all
the shots. And that's not my approach now. I think
people should get the sort of government that they vote for.
Far more people voted for National the last election that
(13:14):
voted the New zeal Person X combined, but you wouldn't
know that from the way the government's been operating.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Let's perhaps just finish on the COVID inquiry. You were
last man standing? Will you hung out to dry your
mate's just sender and grant one know where to be seen?
Speaker 5 (13:30):
Oh? I mean they've moved on with their lives and
that's fair enough.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
They're still responsible.
Speaker 5 (13:34):
Surely there's been a lot of desperate spin on the
COVID inquiry. You know, if you look at that, there
was a hand picked by the current government with the
terms of reference deliberately designed to try and make the
previous government look bad and their hand picked inquiry came
back and said, actually New Zealand's COVID response was one
of the best in the world and we should all
be proud of it as a country. There are some
(13:55):
things that we could do differently and that we should
learn from, and I absolutely accept that. But actually the
COVID the inquiry report was pretty damn positive and so
you know, I support it. I think it was at
the end of the day. While I was skeptical about
it when it was first mooted, and I think you
and I might have had a conversation about that at
the time. Overall, I think they did a damn good job.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Are you going down to Dunedin coming down to Duneden
where I'm based Regent Theater April the sixteenth and evening
with Jacinda and Grant. Did you know that they're doing
a comeback?
Speaker 5 (14:25):
I think that's that's something to do probably the book
tour for both of them, and you know, and that's good.
They both were very good, both both well worth a read.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
Chris Hipkins, I thank you very much for your time
and in all sincerity, it was good to see you
at that iconic rural event. The Golden Shares and master
than last weekend.
Speaker 5 (14:44):
Yeah, great to talk to you, to Jamie, with no
doubt as election year, so we'll be talking more. I'm
sure we will be. Bye bye bye bite.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Thank you, Chris. Pretty damn good, pretty damn positive. I
think were as words for the COVID inquiry report them.
I'm not sure where the chip he's rewriting history there
or not. Yeah, I think the biggest problem with the
second Labor government of that term was maybe not even
the COVID response, although they locked us down for way
(15:13):
too long, especially the poor old Aucklanders, But it was
the free for all with the money that is still
biting us in the bum to this day and will
for another generation, I think. Anyhow, that's just my opinion.
You heard Chris Hipkins up next on the Country. Who
have we got Tracy Brown, madam add a dairy farmer.
(15:35):
Dairy farmers, You need to get off your butt if
you haven't voted, because that big milk solid Selevy voter,
I think it closes. Will check this with Tracy five
pm tomorrow night. You need to get the vote done.
We're going to head to Lawrence, one of my favorite
towns in this Country. Jamie cunning In is there from
PGG writes and Chris Russell is our Australian correspondent. Some
(15:57):
of those Aussie cropping farmers are having real issues with
fuel as they head into their seeding season. All that
to do, plus rural news and sports news as well
before the end of the hour here on the Country,
(16:27):
That's all that. Tracy Brown is a Madame Matter dairy farmer,
also the chair of Dairy and Z. It is your
last week to vote in the milk Solids levy vote.
In fact closer play tomorrow the voting closers. Tracy, I
put it to you and you'll be far too modest
(16:48):
to save this, but I think you're going to romp
home in this vote.
Speaker 7 (16:52):
Oh Jamie. I mean it would be great if we did,
but I would never assume that. I'd just really encourage
everybody to get out and vote. Everybody has an opportunity
that pays milk solids and obviously we're looking for strong mandate,
so as many farmers that can vote as possible would
be great.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
I think the wool industry is a good example of
an industry that dropped the ball when it came to
industry good levies.
Speaker 7 (17:19):
Yeah, I think the important thing for farmers to think
about is, you know, who else is the organization that
speaks on behalf of all of dairy and you know,
and that.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Is our role.
Speaker 7 (17:30):
So if we don't exist, then that doesn't happen. So
you know, that's our role is to do the collective
work for the sector that individual farmers can't do. And
we did that piece of research you're a member journey
last year that did show a significant sevenfold return on
the investment that farmers put in, and so I think
(17:50):
that's significant and hopefully farmers value the work that we
do well.
Speaker 2 (17:55):
If it's of any consolation to you. I haven't spoken
to any dairy farmers yet who aren't voting yet, So
anyhow close the play tomorrow? If you haven't voted, or
you haven't even got your forms or whatever, where do
you go to make sure you can make your voice
count YEP.
Speaker 7 (18:09):
So it's all been run through elections in Z so
same as any director election. So if they searched back
through their emails for elections in Z if they haven't voted,
they've probably also got notifications coming on their phone, so
check their phone. Anyone that has voted doesn't get a
notification anymore, so it'll only be if you haven't voted,
(18:30):
you might be getting a notification. So we'll reach out
to one of our staff members to get guidance on
how where to find your code and all that kind
of stuff. That's not a problem, yep.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
And remember voting closes close a play tomorrow, E contractor
econ tracker. Let's get it right. This is the kind
of the economic tool that you used to track the
cost of production. The latest quarterly update has been released
that break even milk price interestingly has dropped, which is good.
And I'm putting it to you Tracy, that this is
(19:02):
off the back of lower interest rates.
Speaker 7 (19:05):
Yes it is, because I don't I think most people
would argue the farm and put costs haven't gone down,
that interest rates have slightly eased. So yet a new
fullcast break even malt price is eight dollars thirty six,
so that has come down a little bit. That the
average payout received is nine to ninety two, so that
implies as sort of an average surplus of around the
(19:27):
dollar fifty six for twenty five twenty six season. So
that's good news, and we're forecasting for next season it
to be eight thirty one break even. Malt price at
this stagea down slightly again, but you know, there's a
lot of unreasd and a lot of uncertainty as we
know at the moment, Jamie, so anything could happen.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
Yeah, not to mention rising fuel prices, which is going
to be a bit of a fly in the ointment there.
As I said, you're a Madamata dairy farmer. It's been
a very good season around most of the country in
terms of growing. I know some of the cropping and
arable farmers haven't enjoyed it so much, but if you're
into pastor or farming, it's been pretty good. How's your
season gone.
Speaker 7 (20:08):
We've had a really great summer. Phenomenal summer actually, Jamie.
We've had regular rainfall all the way through. It's getting
a bit all to me now. Temperatures dropped in the
last couple of weeks. We have got our may sylogen
recalled yield this year, so that was pleasing, and I
think most people it's been a pretty good season around
(20:28):
the traps, which is you know, it's nice to have
that in the bag for people.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
Happy days for the dairy farmers, especially in the Waikato region,
the dairy powerhouse province of our nation. Tracy Brown, Chair
of Dairy and ZED, thanks for your time and remember
dairy farmers. Voting closes five pm tomorrow for that milk
Solids Levy vote. Good luck, Chier, Thanks Jamie, Thank you Tracy.
Twenty seven away from one. You're with the country right,
(20:55):
lots of feedback. Now we're getting Hello Michelle, good afternoon.
Now we're getting a new system. We're operating off next gen.
I know that means nothing to you guys, but it's
a system we've been operating on for about twenty years
before that. In my Hokenwy days, we had Master Control.
We've got a new system going in. It'll be in
(21:15):
here on Monday, called Zetta. I don't know if I
can handle the new technology, but I'm at the one
of Kashow tomorrow so it won't affect me tomorrow, but
it'll have to be on the game. And it also
means that I haven't got access unfortunately in the studio
to the text machine. But my personal texts have been
running a bit hot. Here's one from a leading New
Zealand farmer who I won't name. He said, Napkins is
(21:39):
like O'Connor, delusional. He is sort of rewriting history.
Speaker 4 (21:43):
Awe.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
But if you don't mind me saying so, Chris Hipkins,
regarding the COVID inquiry, I don't think it was pretty
darn positive. But anyhow, what you got, Michelle, Because you
have got access to the text machine.
Speaker 8 (21:56):
I do, and I've had to filter through. There's definitely
some here I cannot read because every second word is
a word that'll get us canceled, so I better not
read those ones. But one here actually interestingly, Jamie, I
want know your thoughts on this. Someone has said, I
don't think Winston wants to be PM, Jamie. He does
a very good job as Foreign Minister. Do you think
he would turn it down?
Speaker 2 (22:16):
No?
Speaker 8 (22:17):
No, I don't think so.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
It's the one thing that's eluded his political career. He's
been acting Prime minister. Don't put No, he'll hate me
saying this and hope it doesn't get back to him.
Given a chance to maneuver his way into the top job,
he will do it. There you go. That's my opinion.
That's only an opinion. What else you got?
Speaker 8 (22:37):
Nothing is a problem when you are happy to look
straight at the camera and just lie Hipkins's very selective memory.
Speaker 2 (22:43):
Yeah, see the COVID inquiry for me, as I said
a week bit earlier. You went in here, look up
the first government which Winston was a part of. They
largely got it right. In fact, you could argue they
got it perfectly right simply because fifty percent of the country,
including all rural New Zealand Southland Heaven help us Party
voted Labor. So you people out on the provinces were
(23:06):
quite happy with what they've done it. Admittedly, the Labor
Party under Bridges and Mullah and Judith Collins in disarray.
So you voted to Cindy. You gave her an outright majority,
more than fifty percent of the vote. Winston was in
that first government and he was a useful handbreak. He
wasn't there in the second one, and they ran amok
(23:27):
as bad as the COVID handling was. In the lockdowns
and the pulpit of truth. The economic Grant Robertson, in
my mind is the biggest villain out of us anyhow.
That's just my opinion. Once again, you'll are welcome to yours.
You can send it through on five nine Up next
Rural news and sports news. Welcome back to the Country,
(23:52):
brought to you by Isuzu and Farmlands. Looking forward to
broadcasting from the Farmland site at the Wanner Show tomorrow.
The life of the Traveling Salesman continues, but we've got
to get through today's show first. Very shortly, the latest
in rural news with Michelle and will update sport for you.
Here's a message for you though, especially for you North
(24:12):
Island farmers, because this effects you worse than the South
Island farmers. Facial XMA can cause big headaches on the farm,
and because the signs aren't always obvious, it can creep
up on you and end up costing a lot, both
in production and in animal health. In the first episode
of a new podcast series from Beef and Lamb, New
Zealand and the Country, my offsideer Hamish mackay sits down
(24:34):
with principal scientist Kara Brosnahan and Senior Advisor Farm Engagement
Kristen Kirkpatrick. They break down what facial XMA is, what
causes it, the risks for your stock, and why planning
ahead is the best way to protect your animals. They
also explain why This isn't just a North Island issue anymore. Yes,
(24:57):
it is creeping south. You'll hear how the the Eliminating
Facial Exma Impacts Program is helping farmers by looking at
genetic solutions and how seven years of research and industry
teamwork starting to pay off. To learn more, tune in
to the first episode of our new fi mythbusting series,
Facial Exma one O one, brought to you by Beef
(25:17):
and Lamb New Zealand on the Country podcast and you
can find that on iHeart.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
What the Country's World Us with cub Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on lawn Bower brands it Steel for dot
co dot Nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Have you got a cup of tea behind that laptop
or is it starting to smoke? With feedback from Chippy.
Speaker 8 (25:40):
It's getting there. There's quite about we can talk about.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
Well exciting And I just got a text through on
in Line to maybe adjudicate to maybe I don't know
what I do want to count my you know what,
does it count chickens before they hatch? But I'm in
Line and it'll be a fun job to adjudicate. Slash
MC the debate between Taylor and Shane Jones. How good
will that be? Over the gold mining in central Otago
(26:05):
where I'm headed this afternoon? Right heo, what do you
got have? I played the Rural News sting you didn't?
Speaker 5 (26:10):
All right?
Speaker 2 (26:10):
Where you go?
Speaker 8 (26:11):
Okay? So the balance farm environment towards continue. Last night
it was the Greater Wellington region where Clarence and Alice
Stult were named the regional Supreme winners. Next up as Tartanuki,
which has been how tonight and all Supreme Regional winners
are in the running for the Gordon Stevenson Trophy at
the National Showcase in christ Church in July. Some other
things kicking off over the next couple of days. Rural
Games kicks off in Palmerston North. Of course Rowena will
(26:34):
be up there, I'm sure throwing gun boots or something.
We have won a grand Peace show tomorrow at East
Coast Young Farmer's Regional Final is this.
Speaker 2 (26:40):
Yeah, there's a lot going on and sorry I can't
make the Rural Games this year. It's a great event
in the Parmi North Square. Not only Rowena, Wiggy another
friend of the show will be He'll be making his
way up today he does a very good job of
the wood, the wood shopping and the fencing. He's probably
not the best sharing commentator, but I'm not there this year,
(27:01):
so we'll let him loose on the speed share as well.
He'll love that. Go well. Wiggy Right has sport.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
Sport on the country with AFCO invested in your farming success.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Maana pacifica coach Tana Umaga is sidestepping suggestions he will
join the All Blacks coaching staff. The former All Blacks
captain is honored to be in the conversation as a
potential call up to Dave Rannie's team, but says he
doesn't deal in rumor. Heith Mills is resigning as New
Zealand Cricket Players Association Chief Executive after almost twenty five
(27:35):
years in the role. Mills will continue to work closely
with players through his position as Executive Chairman of the
World Cricketers Association. Up next on the country. We are
heading to Lawrence in South Otago. Will I go the
Lawrence Way to Wanaka or will I go through Middle
March or will I go through Palmerston. There's three ways
(27:58):
to go, of course, Michelle, I'll decide that I do
love the drive through Middle March, the Rock and Pillar
country there. Anyhow, that's my problem, that's the first world problem.
Up next Jamie Cunningham, who's in Lawrence monthly here on
the country we have a look at the rural livestock
(28:18):
market with the team from PGG Rights and Jamie Cunningham
is the national dairy Specialist. He's based out of Fielding,
one of my favorite farming towns in this country, but
he's not there today. He's in another great town, Lawrence,
venue for the Century Farm and Station Awards. And for
a dairy specialist, You've gone to a beef sale, Jamie,
(28:38):
how does that work you?
Speaker 4 (28:39):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, No, I'm down here today for
someone Telvis Goose Sail with a couple of clients to
have a bit of a look and in doing some
dairy stuff. I'm dwn here so working working a few
things into into the trip, which is which is good.
Speaker 5 (28:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
Let's start with the beef market. It is running hot
at the moment.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Yeah, very strong right across the country. Really, it's it's
pretty exciting to see the prices we've achieved sort of
from the spring and then right through to the summer.
But for it to be you know, to be continuing
for as long as it has is. Yeah, it's something
we haven't seen for well for a long time if ever.
And just you know, we're starting out run winnasales in
(29:23):
the North Island and they started off with a real
real flying staff and another reasonable sailing fielding today are
first fielding fear today and and all boy, all accounts,
you wouldn't talking very promising there for the for the
one guenegs.
Speaker 2 (29:40):
And there is a real crossover between the beef and
the dairy industries because we are seeing more and more
beef genetics being used over dairy cows so that we
solve the bobby calf issue.
Speaker 4 (29:53):
Yeah, that dairy beef spaces is becoming. You know, it's
just growing from strength to really and you know we've
seen it this year. A lot more calves read and
they've all found homes and there'll be another sort of
I guess a shift of calves that will get shifted
off and sold to new farms through the autumn bar
(30:14):
and we have quite a few that come up into
the North Island out of parts of the South Island.
And yeah, without them with the ready struggling to numbers.
So the beef industry very much is very reliant on
that dairy beef and it's great to see those numbers
are growing and on on a pretty positive beef market too.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
The cow cockies must be pretty happy at the moment.
They've got a rising payout. Hopefully it's a rising payout
as long as Trump's war doesn't go on for too long.
And obviously if you're a Fonterra farmer shareholder, you're about
to get quite a big check.
Speaker 4 (30:48):
Yeah, that positively out there in that dairy space is
really exciting and everyone's everyone's you know it. They've jumped
on and on it to the ride. There's been quite
a few farm sales, which is has been pleasing, and yeah,
everything everything's looking good. That frontier money that's about to
come under the system, you know, people will use us
(31:10):
them in different ways. Some people will be buying new property,
some people will be doing you know, I guess you'd
say development workovers, will be trying to reduce some debt.
But it's a great place to be for sure. At
the moment, it's really exciting and the pay it's looking promising.
Moving forward to and into next season.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Jamie Cunningham there, national dairy specialist for PGG rights and
based out of fielding that he's in the beautiful town
of Lawrence today. Really looking forward to those Century and
Station Farm Awards coming up in May as we celebrate
farming families where the farm has been in the family
name for one hundred years or more. Enjoy your day
in Lawrence, Jamie, thanks very much, Jamie. Good on you,
(31:52):
Jamie to Jamie, right, it is coming up to turn
away from mine. Up next, we wrap up with our
Elsie correspondent Chris Russell. Is there, EUSI correspondent Chris Russell
and Chris, like the rest of the world, we're all
keeping a keen eye on happenings in the Middle East,
(32:15):
and that's not without ramifications. For instance, for Ossie cropping
farmers and their busy season is just coming up. Diesel
and ureas shortages threaten the planting season in April, which
is just around the corner.
Speaker 6 (32:28):
Yeah, that's exactly right, and it's not I mean, the
price of diesel, of course, is a concern, especially when
the grain prices aren't that special of the moment or
though they're likely to go up now. But it's just
physically getting hold of the diesel. There are a number
of the big suppliers of diesel. United Petroleum, for example,
have said they are not supplying any of their if
(32:49):
you're like outside people, they non independent contractors, only supplying
their own suppliers now and a number of others have
cut rationing to half the normal amounts. One farmer who
normally he takes fifty five thousand liters of diesel a
week during the planning season is said that he's likely
to get less than half that, So you know, it's
(33:10):
that's one issue. And the other issue, of course is urea. Jamie.
We completely rely on imports for urea and fertilizer generally,
but particularly urea, and the Middle East produces about forty
five percent of the world's urea exports. Now, most of
our urea is put on in April May, when the
winter crops are being sown. Urea prices have jumped, but then,
(33:34):
in fact it's not just about the jumping price again,
it's the fact that Australia could even run out of
urea fertilizer before that planting is well, certainly it's get started,
but before it's certainly before it's completed. So you know,
there are a number of things that farmers are saying
and if we don't get any planting in the ground,
well there's nothing we can do about that. Then we
(33:55):
don't get any harvest, and then we really are talking
food security. Issue is rationing all sorts of things that
we haven't seen potentially since the war. Now I'm not
suggesting this is all necessarily going to happen, because no
government could sit by and let all that happen. But
some things are beyond the government's control. And despite that,
Anthony Alvin Easy announced yesterday the Australia is not at war.
(34:19):
We've supplied missiles and wedge tail aircraft early warning to
and also personnel to go with those things to UAE.
But they're saying that's all for defense of people who
live in UAE and it's not off for a war
against Iran. Well, pretty fine line, I would have thought.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Jamie, absolutely right. Let's move from the cropping farmers to
the sheep farmers. Twenty three percent of your sheep meat
exports are also under threat, yes.
Speaker 6 (34:47):
And so this is also a significant cost. Fifteen billion
dollars worth of Australian trade goes to the Middle East,
and a big part of that is sheep meat exports,
and you know they're saying, well, we're just not going
to get them in there. We can't get them through
both either the sewers root or through the straits of Hamuz,
(35:11):
and everyone who's saying, well, we really should be thinking
about what we're going to do with all that extra
sheep meet because they are major purchases of our sheep
meets and we may not be going to go to
see that market even kick off lett alone grow in
the coming year.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Yes, we do live in a troubled world. Chris Russell.
Let's talk about your new leader of the National Party,
traditionally like your rural party. The guy's name, I think
is Matt Canavan and he must have, if nothing else
a good sense of you humor, because he's calling for
more babies and better assie jokes.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
Yeah, well that's what he said.
Speaker 4 (35:51):
You know.
Speaker 6 (35:51):
Obviously he's also looking beyond that as well. But he's
really trying to appeal to the people who have been
acted to the one nation very anti woke, but in
policies but which they will never have to put in
power because they will never be in government. So it's
easy to make all sorts of statements, and I'm sure
(36:12):
you and I do it around the dinner table every
Saturday night. We're never going to have to put it
into power, whereas the National Party are part of the coalition,
and so he is tried to counter that growth. Now
there is a big bar election coming up in May,
down in the seat of Farah, which is down in
that southwest agricultural corner of New South Wales, which has
(36:33):
been conservatively represented for seventy five years and the last
twelve i think by the retiring former leader of the
Liberal Party, Susan Lees. So that's going to be contested
and all the predictions are saying that one nation are
going to win that seat. So his is the last
attempt by the National Party or the coalition through the
(36:55):
National Party to attract that right and vote that right
faction vote back to the National Party which has been
their traditional home. So yes, there's a little bit of
humor throne in there, but said somewhat with a guide
to the fact that these sort of people out there
really appreciate the fact we need more true Ossi babies
and we need better Ozzie jokes. So I can't think
(37:17):
as you get better than Jacob. See, I'm money used
to mine and yours they're always well that's.
Speaker 2 (37:21):
The case of ABP anyone but Pauline. Anyhow, I've got
to go. Chris Russell, thanks for your time. We'll catch
you again next.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
Week, no problem, Good on you mate.
Speaker 3 (37:30):
Right.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
I are wrapping the Country with some of your feedback
on the text machine which is sort of working and
sort or not when he wants to put PM on
his headstone and another one, Jamie Winston would make a
very good prime minister. It sounds to me that you're
hedging your bets between Luxon and Hipkins. No I'm not
really And as far as labor being a sensible government
year right, well selection year, I've got to be apolitical
(37:56):
sort of. Catch you tomorrow from the one OFKA show.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Catch all the latest from the Land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mackay. Thanks to Farmlands, better Drenched Plans
and better heard health. Start here.
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