March 30, 2026 • 36 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jen Corkran, Hunter McGregor, Dan Boulton, and Jo Luxton.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to a Suzu get demo,
deals on the tough Dmax today.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Change and.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
When will they go for mere?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
When will they stop? I believe that Fay has brought
us here and we should be together.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Bay will not.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Impair Jean.
Speaker 4 (00:43):
Welcome, Mark Coolber and.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Get a New Zealand Welcome to the Country. Brought to
you by farm Lands and I sus a great song
from Macy Gray to kick off the show today. Cameron
Bakery's kicking off show today are regular here on the
Country Independent Economists, but perhaps for the purposes of today's chat,
is also the chair of Transport New Zealand. What are
we seeing with all the trucks that need the diesel
(01:12):
to cart everything around this country? What are we seeing
with livestock transport. We're going to have a look at
that worth Cameron Bagri Jen Corkran, a Rabobanks animal protein
analyst on red meat. It's a bit of a red
meat show today because I'm trying to track down Dan
Bolton too, chief executive of Silver Fir and Farms. They've
had a big turnaround in their profit situation from a
(01:35):
loss last year twenty one million to a twenty nine
million dollar profit this year. But is that enough on
a turnover of three billion dollars in twenty twenty five?
Hunter McGregor's our guy and Shanghai, how much are they
paying for fuel? Considering their mates with Iran and Joe Luxton.
Where was Labour's OG spokesperson at last week's Federated Farmer's
(01:58):
High Country field day and will she come out with
any agg policy? Right, let's kick it off with and
Dependent Economists. Chair of Transport in z Cameron Bagriy Cameron,
how worried should farmers be, especially when it comes to
transport of livestock?
Speaker 5 (02:16):
Tough out there right? If you're a transport operator, one
of your I E diesel has gone through the se
roof and New Zealand as a country consumes more diesel
than what we do. Sort of petroble to forget about
the impact on or remoter users. You have. The blood
around this country is actually diesel. You know, I'd encourage
(02:38):
your red meat processes. These people just be a little
bit accommodate. That's what the transfer sector is going through here.
You nuances about your trying to get some sort of
price relief pictors in regard to some sort.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Of Cameron, Sorry, mate, we're not We've got a great
line here. Can you stand on a or go to
a window because you're cutting in and out of web
it on me here. I'll just give you a wee
minute to do that. Let me just give you a
weab it of Macy Gray. While I was going to
buy some time for you to get to a better
(03:13):
reception area. Jen corkran on red Meat, Dan Bolton on
red Meat, Hunter McGregor. Apparently the old pig farmers in
China are going broke and Joe Luxton. Okay, Cameron, let's
try this. Are you in a better reception area? Talk
to me?
Speaker 5 (03:30):
Take me up.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
I've sort of got right where you go.
Speaker 5 (03:37):
Ill don't love to see you with him.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Hello, Cameron, that is not good. I'm what am I
going to do? I might just take a break and
see if I can get him into a better reception area.
I'll have one more go. Are you there, Cameron? No,
not good. We're going to go to a break and
(04:04):
we're going to try and come back and get Cameron
Bagriy on a decent line. I believe that fame. How
k okay, take two on Cameron Bagray it has I've
(04:28):
been off the trail here on the country, believe it
or not. He was in Wellington and a higher rise
building on the twenty eighth floor. I thought, way up there, Cameron,
you'd get good mobile reception. But we've got you down
to the ground floor. Now talk to me about the
livestock transport industry please again.
Speaker 5 (04:45):
Well, the transfer sect of the moment. It's it's going
pretty toughly because you've got higher input costs from the
form of higher diesel prices and as a country we
consume more deeds of them what we do petrol. And
the problem is at the media fixate with the impact
on motorists as opposed to the lifeblood around this economy
and to get stuff from A to B. So look,
(05:05):
i'd encourage you to read me processes. Yeah, just be
a little bit flexible accommodating in regard to recognizing the
input costs for a lot of these transport life stop
operators that are going up to government out there if
they're sort of listening to this yet, and it's going
to be tough to get price relief. But what we'd
like to see is some sort of productivity relief i e.
A sector another sort of one to two ton truck.
(05:27):
So you assume roughly the same amount of fuel, but
you're getting more productivity by getting more stuff from A
to B. And that's a look at productivity relief as
a way of city of driving improvements across the sect
to relieve you know what is pretty stressful times out there.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Okay, let's look at some of the numbers. Exchange rate
fifty seven US scenes. I suppose in some ways that's
a positive, certainly not a positive pricing fuel, but it
is for our export income receipts, inflation maybe getting up
to four plus four percent. Interest rates we know are
going up. And if you were to use the nz
(06:04):
X fifty for instance as a baromouth are down seven
percent in March. None of these numbers, Cameron Bagrie, are
really working for us.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
No, they're not. What's going on if you've got the
bigger picture, Jamie's, it's what's called a negative supply shock.
When oil prices up adds to input cost as the
input to a costs go up across the board. That's
bad for earnings, it's bad for growth and flashing goes Hi.
I think Treasury came out with an estimate. I think
(06:34):
about two weeks ago they said worst case scenario and
flacing was going to be three point seven percent. That's
probably looking the best case scenario. At the moment, we're
going to see something with a four percent handle in
front of it. And the scary numbers is that we
start to see a little bit of persistence about this
sort of shock. The view I guess three weeks ago
was I hopeing this is going to be a short
lived affair does not look like it is going to
(06:57):
be a short lived affair. With each sort of passing
day looks like it's going to be longer of duration,
longer duration skyle event or the bigger the economic On
the other side, as a general principle, we're seeing growth
estimates revised. There is the miny turn by economists, and
inflation estimates revised up. So that's bringing about what's called
the statuation. So that's not a word that we like
(07:19):
to sort of throw around, but that's going to be
the reality of about three months.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, it's a dirty word to throw out there. Okay,
weaving with a brilliant line, but I just want you
to crystal ball goes for me, Cameron baggery, best and
worst case scenarios. Even under the best case scenario of
this war ending tonight or tomorrow morning, Trump declaring victory
and getting out of there, that doesn't appease the Iranians.
And the other thing is the supply chain issues won't
(07:45):
correct themselves overnight. So what's best case scenario.
Speaker 5 (07:50):
Well case scenario is they do a deal. What that
deal looks like, we don't know. But if we can
do a deal, then you're going to see the forward prices.
My oil prices are going to come back down. And
what we're seeing historically is that all prices go up
(08:11):
then I collapsing right back. Then it's just the question
of how long they stay high. So we hope move
that's sort of part. But the problem is, look, even
if you start to refire up these oil fields, you've
got to get the pressure out up and that's no
easier fear. You know, the refineries that are starting to
shut down, well, the big chemistry parts, so you can't
(08:32):
sort of flick a switch on and off and sudden
that you magically producing refined fuel the other side, so
that the reality is that this is going to take
a few months. I think settle down and it is
step you can think about the sure Over the past
sort of four to five years, the global environment has
just shifted. We're no longer in a low risk, low
(08:53):
volatility world. It's like shocks are becoming the new normal,
whether it be oil, whether it be shipped, whether it
be something to do with that era called the Great Moderation,
which is sort of nineteen ninety three, the twenty nineteen
broth low inflation. Yeah, not much volatility is behind us.
(09:14):
We just did an era that feels a lot more
like the sixties and seventies. Was that a bad error? No?
Was it all more volatile area? Yes, And you just
need to learn how to deal with that and manage risk.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Okay, Cameron, thanks for your time going from the twenty
eighth floor to the ground floor to have a chat
to us independent economist and the chair of Transport New
Zealing urging some constraint for the poor old transport companies.
I had Andrew's Transport in Riversdale doing a job for
me and I was talking to the bloke who runs
it and he said, it's a nightmare at the moment
(09:48):
pricing jobs. They do a good job though. Okay, right,
let's take a break on the other side of it.
We're going to kind of concentrate on even on red
meat today. First up to the batter's box as Jen Corkoran,
I'm trying to trap Dan Bolton, chief executive of Silverfern Farms,
the country's largest meat company. They came out with a
good number, well a relatively good number, with their annual
(10:10):
profit for the twenty twenty five year before the end
of their Hunter McGregor and Joe Luxton. She is a
(10:30):
senior animal protein analyst for Rabobank. No one in that
wonderful bank has a short title of name is Jen Corkran. Jen. Hopefully,
I'm going to talk to Dan Bolton shortly about the
Silverfern Farms annual result as we stare down the barrel
and have a dig into red meat on the show today. Look,
what's happening in the Middle East is causing us all
(10:51):
untold grief at the moment? How is it affecting the
red meat market or are we relatively insulated, especially when
it comes to the likes of beef and the US Yes.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Hi, Jamie, so great to hear lots of red meat
on the agenda for today. But yes, globally it certainly
feels like thanks on fire, don't it? And lots of uncertainty.
But you know, if we look at red meat and
just the fundamentals of what's going on, things are still
pretty positive. And I think, you know, the time for
the sector to look to the positivity that we've seen
(11:23):
over the last twelve months. Understand some of those fundamentals.
But certainly the Middle East is causing uncertainty challenges with
all those words fuel and fertilizer and freight shame. But
you know, if we look at what's going on with
the demand for our red meats globally, still right now,
it's still very strong and we've seen still some really
(11:44):
good results in terms of those everage ex book values
to date. What might happen in the second half of
the year, you know, we can discuss going forward, but
right now things are still looking positive. Still got good
demand in the United States in particular for that grinding base,
still very very high, and they're similarly driving things from
the beef side.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Okay, well, let's have a look at lamb. The lamb
schedules have dropped a week bit in recent times, Is
this just the normal seasonal changes as we see live
stock starting to flow in, because I know a lot
of livestock has been held back because it's been a
good grass growing summer around New Zealand. Farmers have quite
rightly decided to put an extra quilo or two on
(12:23):
the lambs, right.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Jamie, and I think that's exactly what's happened.
Speaker 6 (12:28):
Right.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
So we've seen some really great it covers across New
Zealand through January degree and give into the start of
March as well. Now things have crisped off a little bit,
particularly in the last few weeks, and now what we're
seeing is that normal season or supply starting to pick up,
which these for processes they've been waiting for these lambs
to come on. But so far in the season since
(12:50):
October the first, we are down about five percent, which
is last year in terms of the number of lambs
that have been processed. But we're expecting to see slightly
more lands this year, so this generally still plenty out there.
I think, you know, good on our producers who have
decided to put a bit more life weight on these
lambs and take advantage of that good pasture that's been growing.
But what we normally see when these lambs start to
(13:11):
come on online is that, you know, the efficiencies pick
up in the processing end and they don't need to
be offering the same money. And we also know that
they've perhaps held those prices up firmly for some time now,
and it's time for them to start to drop as
they will normally seasonally. And I think that's exactly what's happening. Unfortunately,
it's kind of happening just at the same time as
(13:31):
the Middle East at this stage. It's not caused by that.
It's really just this normal season or softening that we
see in the markets.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
You've mentioned the F word, fuel, freight, fertilizer on farm costs.
Are these more likely to be felt in the next
financial year rather than this one? Bearing in mind from
a farmer's point of view, a lot of the income
and a lot of the costs of producing this year
have already been locked and loaded into the system.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
That's right, Jamie. I think what we know right now
and generally a lot of things we don't know, but
I think really important to remain positive and focus on
what we do know, and we know that right now
there's enough fertilizer in New Zealand for the autumn. The
fuel situation is still being tooked through by the government regularly,
so we kind of know we were out there. But
(14:19):
the real watching point for us and our team at
the moment is going to be the second half of
twenty twenty six. And you know what that means that
right now where we are at, what can we do
to be resilient and control costs going forward because we
know that the place of some of these things is
likely to rise, and you know that is challenging a
lot of what we do within the farm gate requires
(14:41):
obviously even fertilizer itself is going to be more expensive,
but also getting their foot on and of course the
trucking and everything up and the rest of the supply
chain when it comes to moving animals around. So lots
of watching points there. But certainly the second half of
the air I think is going to be actually more
of a worry than we were at right now.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Twenty twenty five, the story was Trump's tariffs. Twenty twenty six,
the story is Trump's war. Goodness knows what he will
come up with in twenty twenty seven. Let's hope he
calms the farmer weebit and we can all get down
to business. Jen corkran out a rabobank Thanks for your
time today on the Country. Thanks Jamie again, Thank you Jen.
Twenty seven after twelve Cameron Bagrie talking about that period
(15:22):
of calm. What did he say off the top of
my head was at nineteen ninety three to twenty and
nineteen and of course that was the beginning of the
well beginning of the COVID era. Wasn't it late twenty nineteen,
early two thousand or early twenty twenty We I think
(15:43):
we've gone to the year two thousand for these songs.
What's she doing with s Club seven on my show?
I'll ask her shortly. Michelle Watt with the latest and
rural news. We've got sports news for you as well.
I'm on the case of Dan Bolton, the chief executive
of Silver Fern Farms, and Joe Luxton. When is she
coming out with some egg poll the labor A spokesperson.
All that before the end of the hour, but up
(16:04):
next we're off to Shanghai. Our guy there is Hunter McGregor,
the he's our guy in Shanghai a Kiwi selling a
(16:32):
red meat and venison to the Chinese. His name is
Hunter MacGregor. Hunter. We're going to talk about the first
of the new season fruit Kiwi fruit and Apple's arriving
onto Chinese sholves. But before we do, I want to
talk about fuel pricing and fuel supply in China. How
are you fearing bearing in mind you are and I'm
talking about China. You are a friend of Iran.
Speaker 6 (16:54):
Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. Since we last talked, the prices
have gone up about quite a significant price increase a
while ago. But what they've done is they've capped the
price increase. It should have more less been twice as
large as what the price increase was. And what they
actually do is they have two very large state and
(17:16):
oil companies here and they use their balance sheets and
pop up funding through that to keep the price, especially
of diesel, not too high. Now, China has a hell
of a lot of electric car vehicles and big cities,
the smaller trucks that are delivering around the cities and
also turning into evs as well electric trucks. But if
(17:39):
you get out of the cities on the big roads,
now all the big trucks are diesel. So the country
here still runs on diesel and more for the foreseeable future,
so you know that they're restricting how high that increases,
and they're funding that to keep the country moving. So
you know it's going to be a challenge for everyone,
and it's going to be a price challenge. But here
(18:00):
they got some mechanism in place to protect the price
of diesel and not get it too high, so you
know the country won't come to a groning hole. But
it doesn't seem to be any issues on the supply
side at the moment here, so which is good.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Talk to me about the first of the new season
apples and kiwi fruit heading into China.
Speaker 6 (18:19):
Well, actually, yesterday the first seasons of the Zespriy's kiwi
fruit arrived into a Shanghai port. They had a big,
big pr push and they'll be I'm sure there'll be
a big marketing push in the next few days. So look,
we would take a day or two for that stuff
to get onto the shelves around around Shanghai and then
push into other parts of the country. So looking forward
(18:40):
to getting my hands on some of this elusive red
kiwi fruit. I'm pretty sure I'll have a bit more
of that, and then you know, apples has started to launch.
And I saw a really interesting thing the other day
posted I picked it up from the New Zealand government
that actually six out of the ten apples imported into
are from New Zealand. So you know, then the China
(19:03):
produces a hell of a lot of apples, but New
Zealand apples, I think just a little bit superior good stuff.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Who would want to be a Chinese pig farmer at
the moment, Yeah.
Speaker 6 (19:13):
Well, no, it's really interesting. Prior to COVID, the Chinese
pork price and the other protein prices like beef and
especially lamb were kind of linked, you know, with the
swine fever, prices of pork went up and then lamb
went through the roof. But now since COVID, they're not
linked at all. So you've got really strong demand for beef.
(19:34):
Beef prices are high obviously around the world, included here.
You've got high prices for lamb. But the Chinese pork
farmers are at a sixteen year low with regards to pricing.
You know, they're losing over forty dollars ahead at least,
and that's only going to increase as costs increase and
the biggest reason is over supply and weak demand. So
(19:58):
you know, it's very tough for I'm here a pig
farmer here. At the moment, the produce a hell of
a lot of pigs, so it's going to be a
bit of a drain on the economy. And they reckon,
it's going to take about six to eight months before
the supply and things were turned back to balance. But
in the meantime, you know, there's some cheap pork prices here,
but it's off weak demand. And now we see that
(20:20):
and what we do here. You know, restaurants are a
lot of strongs as they have been in the past,
and that's pushing through the everything.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
And you reckon. New Zealand could benefit from Australians hitting
their beef quota because once they get past that quota
there's a fifty five percent terriff applied.
Speaker 6 (20:38):
Yeah. No, this year the Chinese brought in a beef
quite a system for a number of countries, including New Zealand.
But Australians have just hit fifty percent of their yearly
quota already, so we're three months in, so you know,
on the back end of this year there will be opportunities,
more opportunities for New Zealand beef, which which we won't
(21:00):
had our quota at all. But you know, the end
of the day, at high end restaurants, grain fed beef
is not going to be replaced by grasshad beef. But
there will be opportunities for New Zealand beef companies here,
which would be great.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
And a final fun fact, maybe this isn't good news
for our forestry industry. China added three point six million
hectares of new forest in twenty twenty five, bringing national
forest coverage rate to over twenty five percent. They'll be
becoming self sufficient in trees.
Speaker 6 (21:35):
Well, you know, a lot of it's reclaiming the Gobi Desert.
It's not probably pinus radiator or trees, but you know,
China's had a big push of reforesting and regriming the
place in twenty five percent is a big number. But
you know, the three point six million hected, it's about
twenty five percent of the size of the South Island,
(21:57):
so you know that's the heir of a big area
in one year. You know that they're pushing to grow
a few more trees here, but I don't think it
will affect the New Zealand forestry in the short term,
because I don't see too many pinous radiata trees around
the countryside. So yeah, but it's good to see.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Okay, Hunter McGregor, thanks for your time from Shanghai. Go
and enjoy some new season Kiwi fruit and Kiwi apples.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
Oh well, thanks Jamie.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Thank you Hunter. Yeah, what a great fact. Thank you Hunter.
Six out of ten apples importer than to China come
from New Zealand. So the music today comes from the
year two thousand. I liked Macy Gray, this one not
so much. Michelle Watts, producer, What were you doing in
(22:46):
the year two thousand?
Speaker 7 (22:48):
I was sitting my school see exams, I said.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Juy for the first and last time.
Speaker 7 (22:53):
I didn't have to do it more than once, luckily,
although mats was not my strong point. But we won't
talk about that.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
No, we won't talk about that, all right. So hmmm,
S Club seven just the boy boy and girl band,
wasn't it.
Speaker 7 (23:08):
Yeah, you can't be sad about that. Invented in the UK,
of course, named after the inventor, Simon Simon cow That's
why they different Simon, a different Simon.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
D Okay, well, let's get back, get the show back
on the road. Here's Rural News.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
The Contries, World News with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn bower brands it Steel for dot cote
Onions for your local Stoggist and.
Speaker 7 (23:31):
In rural News. Fonterra has completed the sale of its
global consumer and associated business as Mainland Group, to French
dairy giant lacked Lease for four point two two billion dollars.
The sale, announced last year, involves some of Fonterra's most
recognized brands, including Anchor Mainland and Carpety Fontira chairman Peede
McBride sees the completion of the sal as a significant
milestone which sets the cooperative up for the future. And
(23:53):
you can find more headlines on air website, on the
country dot code.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
And you dairy farmers, you lucky Fonterra Farmer shareholders. I
think you're getting the big check in the mail on
April the fourteenth. I'm sure you'll have plenty of places
where you can spend it. Let's have a look at sport.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Sports on the country with AFCO one percent ke we owned.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
That's rare.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Hey, we didn't talk over John mckavn's liner today. Either
did we no, we did a good job. Did a
good job. That'll keep him off my case. Ah, who
would be a rugby league player? A Warriors co captain
Mitch Barnett, this is the bloke we missed most of
last year with injury by memory has broken his right
thumb and could be out of the NRL season for
(24:34):
up to six weeks. It was to Mighty Williams yesterday
Mitch Barnett, good player, he's out today. Our New Zealand
cricket selectors are keen to see more from left arm
pace bowler Thomas O'Connor. And I think he's shown O'Connor's son,
isn't he he is? That's right? Yeah, okay, so Thomas O'Connor.
Before thrusting him into the international environment. The twenty one
(24:54):
year old has grabbed headlines at the back of the
Plunket Shield season, taking twenty seven wickets in four matches. Regardless,
Black Cats coach Rob Walter says there's no room for
him on the development tour to Sri Lanka in April.
Otarga a very strong finish in the Plunket Shield and
finally twelve tests All Blacks. Locke Josh Lord has extended
(25:16):
as too New Zealand Rugby the Chiefs and Taranaki through
until the end of twenty twenty nine. Good player Josh Lord,
and he plays for Smiley's Club, I think Coastal. Imagine
if you had three Barretts back and Josh Lord playing
and you were one of the neighboring rugby teams in
the Taranaki region and you had to play those blokes
(25:38):
on a Saturday. It wouldn't be easy, would it.
Speaker 7 (25:40):
You just got home, wouldn't you.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Well, I don't know about that, but so look back
in my day. Back in my day, we used to
get to play against all blacks, even in our local
sub union competition year Kenny's Stewart, Ash McGregor, Lester Rutlans
if we went over to Winton, those were the days.
Those were the days. Anyhow, up next, what are we
doing next?
Speaker 5 (25:59):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (25:59):
Yes, Stan Bolt and I've got to get a hold
of him. Red meat or the red meat industry dominating
the show a bit today. Dan Bolton's the chief executive
of silver Fern Farms, the country's biggest meat company. They've
just reported an annual net profit after tacks of twenty
(26:21):
nine million dollars. That is a turnaround from a loss
of twenty one million and twenty twenty four that's a
fifty million dollar turnaround Dan, albeit with a total revenue
of over three billions. So when I look at that
in percentage terms, your profit's only one percent of your
total turnover. Should we be concerned or is that just
the red meat business?
Speaker 8 (26:43):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Great to be on your show and
great to be announcing you know, the turn run and
performance that we've seen at Civil Fin's arms, which was
much needed. So yeah, what's driven the result? You have
really strong market returns, But to your point, you know,
is twenty nine million dollars sufficient? I think we can
do a lot better on that. But I think in
the light of very low livestock volumes through twenty twenty
(27:05):
five and the pressure at farm gat around pecuma prices,
I think it was a very hard fought result. There's
something we're pretty proud of in a huge amount of
dicipline across the business to deliver that result. So fifty
million dollar turnaround in the current context is something we
should celebrate.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
I guess when it comes to returns to farmers. It's
all about the returns to them rather than the overall
companies profit, although you do need profits to be able
to reinvest into your business.
Speaker 8 (27:32):
Yeah, that's right, Jamie. If we want a resilience sector,
we need to have a resilient processing sector as well,
so making sure margins are shared equitably through the supply
chain all the way back into farm gate. But you
know something we am pretty proud of is you know,
the turnaround at farm Got pricing this last eighteen months
has been outstanding. To give you context, we've paid our
farmers on a per animal basis on average last year
(27:54):
thirty two percent more than in the twenty twenty four
year period. So that's building confidence and farmers are definitely
looking to the future with more confidence in what they
had previously.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
We've spoken to Jen Corkran already on the show. She
implied it without actually saying it, Beef's looking better than
lamb at the moment. Or did I misread her comments.
Speaker 8 (28:16):
I didn't hear that, but I can tell you both
beef and lamb is looking favorable. Structurally. The market is
strong in terms of strong demand. I think what we're
seeing is just a little bit of softening happening in
some of our key markets, particularly UK and Europe on LAMB,
which she may be referring to. And I think what
we're also going to see in the coming months is
(28:36):
as livestock pressure is building into Q two, we'll see
a bit of easing and farm gat pricing more about
procurement pressure easing for his capacity is fill up me
and there's beginning to be weights at our processing sights.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
No one knows when or how this Middle East conflict
will end or sort itself out, but one thing we
do know for certain is that the likes of international
freight prices are taking a bit of a hike. Have
you factored that in.
Speaker 8 (29:04):
Yeah, we have so clearly costs across the supply chain escalating,
you know, whether that's fuel, whether that's packaging, and we
see that being a factor in the next of the
three to six months. You know, as you said, we
don't know when it's going to finish. But I think
you know, those disruptions that we see in a supply chain,
we're used to those. We can be agile, and we've
(29:25):
got some really strong partners in our supply chain to
help mitigate some of those costs flowing down. But our
job is just to be as transparent as we can
as around how that plays out and making sure our
farmers are well informed around potential cost increases.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
As I said, you're the country's largest meat company operating
fourteen processing plants killing sheep, beef and venison. If I'm
a sheep, beef or deer farmer listening to this, have
I got reason to be confident heading into the twenty
six twenty seven season. Dan, this far out, I.
Speaker 8 (29:56):
Think, you know, there are some of the supply chain
issues we're looking at the moment. I think fundamentally the
demand is really really strong, and I think we should
be excited about the future. You know, I guess two areas.
You know, global production of red meat is contracting. You
look at South America and North America on beef, those
numbers are shrinking EU u K their production shrinking. Australian
(30:18):
lamb numbers are down. So all that there is really
positive in the back of when there's actually really strong demand,
growing middle classes, greatest awareness, greater awareness of health and
nutrition on our sustainable protein. Both of those are really
really positive. So we'll work through the challenges that are
in front of us around the Middle East and the
wider global ones. But I think if you lo across
(30:39):
a two to three year period, it's really favorable in
terms of you're a protein producer here in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Thank God the Americans love Hamburger A Dan, thanks for
your time. Congratulations on a good annual result from Silver
Firm Farms.
Speaker 8 (30:52):
Thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Joe Luxton is Labour's agriculture spokesperson. I was looking forward,
Joe to spending some quality time with you last Friday
at the Federated Farmer's High Country Field Day at the
Magnificent Glenary Station, but Joe, you were a no show.
Where were you?
Speaker 4 (31:19):
Oh good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, would be lovely to spend
some really good quality time with you, I'm sure. But
we've had a bit of illness in our caucus and
had leaves planned to head down on thusday, but we
were unable to get our leave got rescinded due to
lots of people being away sick in Parliament has to
(31:41):
be the priority for us, So with a real shame
because I really really enjoyed the high Country field Days
last year.
Speaker 5 (31:48):
It was really great.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Well, I think feed's were keen to talk to the opposition.
You know, Heaven help us, you might be the government
at the end of the year, Joe. But as it was,
it was just a whole lot of nodding heads from
New Zealand first and the NATS. But never mind, you've
missed out on that one. What are you guys, What
are you guys in labor going to do about the
free trade agreement with India. I put it to you,
(32:11):
and I know you've got some reservations about it, but
I put it to you it'd be an act of
economic sabotage or treason, should I say, if you guys
didn't get in behind this and support it now more
than ever we need India.
Speaker 4 (32:24):
Neighbor has always had a real strength when it comes
to trade. You know, we've got several really good trade
agreements across the line and our time, thanks to the
hard work of Damian. Look, there are some concerns about
some of the things within the trade agreement. You know,
we really want to work constructively with the government on this,
(32:45):
and I know that Chris is seeking some more clarification
from the government. You're just some concerns about bits in
there that you know if that sign news will end
up to be able to deliver certain things and what
happens if we can't quite deliver that water the implication.
So there's you know, there's a few of those things
to work through. They are actually really important because we
(33:07):
certainly don't want to put New Zealand in a position
where we get penalized for not being able to deliver
on our end of the bargain. So that's just something
that's been worked through.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Where do you or labor sit on this LNG terminal
in Taranaki? It looks like it might be gassed for
want of a better word, because I think liquefied natural
gas has gone up more in percentage terms than crude oil,
So it may not be the answer, the fix all
we were looking for.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
We've had concerns about this right from the get go
in our spokes SSS in Meghan Woods has expressed that
quite clearly in the House through questions and what have you.
But what we are seeing now with the prices overseas
just highlights what our concerns have been. And there is
if we were to go ahead with this, we were
(34:00):
to be held to rensom So to speak to gas
prices overseas, and which would potentially at the moment if
we were using this would see higher prices for us
here in New Zealand to pay. And that's not a
good thing. That's the exact opposite of what we need
to do.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Joe Luxton. One. To finish on, I want to go
back to that Federated Farmer's High Country Field day. One
of the things that was the key topics was the
wilding pines and conifers. The risks to a beautiful farm
like Graneri and the seed source can be twenty or
thirty kilometers away. It is such a problem not only
(34:39):
down south but right around the country. And I know
you've had a good look at wilding pines. As a nation,
this is a real threat to some of our productive land.
Speaker 4 (34:50):
It's an absolute threat, Jamie, without a doubt. And it's
not just a threat to our productive land, but it
also has implications, for example, with our fires and all
those sorts of things that could potentially break out if
they continue to take up. This is something that's really
front of mind for me, Jamie, and it has been
for quite some time. I'm actually really focused on trying
(35:11):
to put together you know, what I think would be
and you'll be pleased to hear this policy.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
What a policy, Joe. You can't give me a policy
an election. I've been waiting two years for some and you're.
Speaker 4 (35:23):
Going to have to wait a bit longer yet. But
that I'm really focused on, Jamie. I've heard loud and
clearly seen it so myself. It is a real concern,
and I think, you know, we invested money when we
were lasting government to take all this problem and we
were making some gains. Sadly it's you know, seems to
(35:43):
have fallen away a little bit and getting out of
control even more so, it is definitely something that's front
of mine for me. Jamie.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
Well, good on you, Joe. Some policy from the Labor
Party on eg that's good. Next next thing, Trump will
end the war we live in hope. Hey, thanks for
your time.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
All right, thank you, Jamie, Good on you, Joe.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Always a good sport. Could do with a bit more
policy though, right. That wraps the country for today. Tomorrow
I'm assuming the Prime Minister will be on God for
doctor Victoria Hatton caught up with her at the Impact
Summit again in christ Church, Food Futurist Hopefully Serene Taylor.
What happened to the debate with Siren and the Prince
(36:25):
of the Province is Martua Shane over gold mining and
Central Otago. In our Farmer Panel, Craig Dairyman, Hickman and
Duncan Hum we will catch you at same time, same
place tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Aisuzu Get Demo deals
on the tough Dmax Today
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to a Suzu get demo,
deals on the tough Dmax today.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Change and.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
When will they go for mere?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
When will they stop? I believe that Fay has brought
us here and we should be together.
Speaker 3 (00:31):
Bay will not.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Impair Jean.
Speaker 4 (00:43):
Welcome, Mark Coolber and.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Get a New Zealand Welcome to the Country. Brought to
you by farm Lands and I sus a great song
from Macy Gray to kick off the show today. Cameron
Bakery's kicking off show today are regular here on the
Country Independent Economists, but perhaps for the purposes of today's chat,
is also the chair of Transport New Zealand. What are
we seeing with all the trucks that need the diesel
(01:12):
to cart everything around this country? What are we seeing
with livestock transport. We're going to have a look at
that worth Cameron Bagri Jen Corkran, a Rabobanks animal protein
analyst on red meat. It's a bit of a red
meat show today because I'm trying to track down Dan
Bolton too, chief executive of Silver Fir and Farms. They've
had a big turnaround in their profit situation from a
(01:35):
loss last year twenty one million to a twenty nine
million dollar profit this year. But is that enough on
a turnover of three billion dollars in twenty twenty five?
Hunter McGregor's our guy and Shanghai, how much are they
paying for fuel? Considering their mates with Iran and Joe Luxton.
Where was Labour's OG spokesperson at last week's Federated Farmer's
(01:58):
High Country field day and will she come out with
any agg policy? Right, let's kick it off with and
Dependent Economists. Chair of Transport in z Cameron Bagriy Cameron,
how worried should farmers be, especially when it comes to
transport of livestock?
Speaker 5 (02:16):
Tough out there right? If you're a transport operator, one
of your I E diesel has gone through the se
roof and New Zealand as a country consumes more diesel
than what we do. Sort of petroble to forget about
the impact on or remoter users. You have. The blood
around this country is actually diesel. You know, I'd encourage
(02:38):
your red meat processes. These people just be a little
bit accommodate. That's what the transfer sector is going through here.
You nuances about your trying to get some sort of
price relief pictors in regard to some sort.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Of Cameron, Sorry, mate, we're not We've got a great
line here. Can you stand on a or go to
a window because you're cutting in and out of web
it on me here. I'll just give you a wee
minute to do that. Let me just give you a
weab it of Macy Gray. While I was going to
buy some time for you to get to a better
(03:13):
reception area. Jen corkran on red Meat, Dan Bolton on
red Meat, Hunter McGregor. Apparently the old pig farmers in
China are going broke and Joe Luxton. Okay, Cameron, let's
try this. Are you in a better reception area? Talk
to me?
Speaker 5 (03:30):
Take me up.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
I've sort of got right where you go.
Speaker 5 (03:37):
Ill don't love to see you with him.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
Hello, Cameron, that is not good. I'm what am I
going to do? I might just take a break and
see if I can get him into a better reception area.
I'll have one more go. Are you there, Cameron? No,
not good. We're going to go to a break and
(04:04):
we're going to try and come back and get Cameron
Bagriy on a decent line. I believe that fame. How
k okay, take two on Cameron Bagray it has I've
(04:28):
been off the trail here on the country, believe it
or not. He was in Wellington and a higher rise
building on the twenty eighth floor. I thought, way up there, Cameron,
you'd get good mobile reception. But we've got you down
to the ground floor. Now talk to me about the
livestock transport industry please again.
Speaker 5 (04:45):
Well, the transfer sect of the moment. It's it's going
pretty toughly because you've got higher input costs from the
form of higher diesel prices and as a country we
consume more deeds of them what we do petrol. And
the problem is at the media fixate with the impact
on motorists as opposed to the lifeblood around this economy
and to get stuff from A to B. So look,
(05:05):
i'd encourage you to read me processes. Yeah, just be
a little bit flexible accommodating in regard to recognizing the
input costs for a lot of these transport life stop
operators that are going up to government out there if
they're sort of listening to this yet, and it's going
to be tough to get price relief. But what we'd
like to see is some sort of productivity relief i e.
A sector another sort of one to two ton truck.
(05:27):
So you assume roughly the same amount of fuel, but
you're getting more productivity by getting more stuff from A
to B. And that's a look at productivity relief as
a way of city of driving improvements across the sect
to relieve you know what is pretty stressful times out there.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
Okay, let's look at some of the numbers. Exchange rate
fifty seven US scenes. I suppose in some ways that's
a positive, certainly not a positive pricing fuel, but it
is for our export income receipts, inflation maybe getting up
to four plus four percent. Interest rates we know are
going up. And if you were to use the nz
(06:04):
X fifty for instance as a baromouth are down seven
percent in March. None of these numbers, Cameron Bagrie, are
really working for us.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
No, they're not. What's going on if you've got the
bigger picture, Jamie's, it's what's called a negative supply shock.
When oil prices up adds to input cost as the
input to a costs go up across the board. That's
bad for earnings, it's bad for growth and flashing goes Hi.
I think Treasury came out with an estimate. I think
(06:34):
about two weeks ago they said worst case scenario and
flacing was going to be three point seven percent. That's
probably looking the best case scenario. At the moment, we're
going to see something with a four percent handle in
front of it. And the scary numbers is that we
start to see a little bit of persistence about this
sort of shock. The view I guess three weeks ago
was I hopeing this is going to be a short
lived affair does not look like it is going to
(06:57):
be a short lived affair. With each sort of passing
day looks like it's going to be longer of duration,
longer duration skyle event or the bigger the economic On
the other side, as a general principle, we're seeing growth
estimates revised. There is the miny turn by economists, and
inflation estimates revised up. So that's bringing about what's called
the statuation. So that's not a word that we like
(07:19):
to sort of throw around, but that's going to be
the reality of about three months.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yeah, it's a dirty word to throw out there. Okay,
weaving with a brilliant line, but I just want you
to crystal ball goes for me, Cameron baggery, best and
worst case scenarios. Even under the best case scenario of
this war ending tonight or tomorrow morning, Trump declaring victory
and getting out of there, that doesn't appease the Iranians.
And the other thing is the supply chain issues won't
(07:45):
correct themselves overnight. So what's best case scenario.
Speaker 5 (07:50):
Well case scenario is they do a deal. What that
deal looks like, we don't know. But if we can
do a deal, then you're going to see the forward prices.
My oil prices are going to come back down. And
what we're seeing historically is that all prices go up
(08:11):
then I collapsing right back. Then it's just the question
of how long they stay high. So we hope move
that's sort of part. But the problem is, look, even
if you start to refire up these oil fields, you've
got to get the pressure out up and that's no
easier fear. You know, the refineries that are starting to
shut down, well, the big chemistry parts, so you can't
(08:32):
sort of flick a switch on and off and sudden
that you magically producing refined fuel the other side, so
that the reality is that this is going to take
a few months. I think settle down and it is
step you can think about the sure Over the past
sort of four to five years, the global environment has
just shifted. We're no longer in a low risk, low
(08:53):
volatility world. It's like shocks are becoming the new normal,
whether it be oil, whether it be shipped, whether it
be something to do with that era called the Great Moderation,
which is sort of nineteen ninety three, the twenty nineteen
broth low inflation. Yeah, not much volatility is behind us.
(09:14):
We just did an era that feels a lot more
like the sixties and seventies. Was that a bad error? No?
Was it all more volatile area? Yes, And you just
need to learn how to deal with that and manage risk.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
Okay, Cameron, thanks for your time going from the twenty
eighth floor to the ground floor to have a chat
to us independent economist and the chair of Transport New
Zealing urging some constraint for the poor old transport companies.
I had Andrew's Transport in Riversdale doing a job for
me and I was talking to the bloke who runs
it and he said, it's a nightmare at the moment
(09:48):
pricing jobs. They do a good job though. Okay, right,
let's take a break on the other side of it.
We're going to kind of concentrate on even on red
meat today. First up to the batter's box as Jen Corkoran,
I'm trying to trap Dan Bolton, chief executive of Silverfern Farms,
the country's largest meat company. They came out with a
good number, well a relatively good number, with their annual
(10:10):
profit for the twenty twenty five year before the end
of their Hunter McGregor and Joe Luxton. She is a
(10:30):
senior animal protein analyst for Rabobank. No one in that
wonderful bank has a short title of name is Jen Corkran. Jen. Hopefully,
I'm going to talk to Dan Bolton shortly about the
Silverfern Farms annual result as we stare down the barrel
and have a dig into red meat on the show today. Look,
what's happening in the Middle East is causing us all
(10:51):
untold grief at the moment? How is it affecting the
red meat market or are we relatively insulated, especially when
it comes to the likes of beef and the US Yes.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Hi, Jamie, so great to hear lots of red meat
on the agenda for today. But yes, globally it certainly
feels like thanks on fire, don't it? And lots of uncertainty.
But you know, if we look at red meat and
just the fundamentals of what's going on, things are still
pretty positive. And I think, you know, the time for
the sector to look to the positivity that we've seen
(11:23):
over the last twelve months. Understand some of those fundamentals.
But certainly the Middle East is causing uncertainty challenges with
all those words fuel and fertilizer and freight shame. But
you know, if we look at what's going on with
the demand for our red meats globally, still right now,
it's still very strong and we've seen still some really
(11:44):
good results in terms of those everage ex book values
to date. What might happen in the second half of
the year, you know, we can discuss going forward, but
right now things are still looking positive. Still got good
demand in the United States in particular for that grinding base,
still very very high, and they're similarly driving things from
the beef side.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
Okay, well, let's have a look at lamb. The lamb
schedules have dropped a week bit in recent times, Is
this just the normal seasonal changes as we see live
stock starting to flow in, because I know a lot
of livestock has been held back because it's been a
good grass growing summer around New Zealand. Farmers have quite
rightly decided to put an extra quilo or two on
(12:23):
the lambs, right.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Jamie, and I think that's exactly what's happened.
Speaker 6 (12:28):
Right.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
So we've seen some really great it covers across New
Zealand through January degree and give into the start of
March as well. Now things have crisped off a little bit,
particularly in the last few weeks, and now what we're
seeing is that normal season or supply starting to pick up,
which these for processes they've been waiting for these lambs
to come on. But so far in the season since
(12:50):
October the first, we are down about five percent, which
is last year in terms of the number of lambs
that have been processed. But we're expecting to see slightly
more lands this year, so this generally still plenty out there.
I think, you know, good on our producers who have
decided to put a bit more life weight on these
lambs and take advantage of that good pasture that's been growing.
But what we normally see when these lambs start to
(13:11):
come on online is that, you know, the efficiencies pick
up in the processing end and they don't need to
be offering the same money. And we also know that
they've perhaps held those prices up firmly for some time now,
and it's time for them to start to drop as
they will normally seasonally. And I think that's exactly what's happening. Unfortunately,
it's kind of happening just at the same time as
(13:31):
the Middle East at this stage. It's not caused by that.
It's really just this normal season or softening that we
see in the markets.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
You've mentioned the F word, fuel, freight, fertilizer on farm costs.
Are these more likely to be felt in the next
financial year rather than this one? Bearing in mind from
a farmer's point of view, a lot of the income
and a lot of the costs of producing this year
have already been locked and loaded into the system.
Speaker 3 (13:58):
That's right, Jamie. I think what we know right now
and generally a lot of things we don't know, but
I think really important to remain positive and focus on
what we do know, and we know that right now
there's enough fertilizer in New Zealand for the autumn. The
fuel situation is still being tooked through by the government regularly,
so we kind of know we were out there. But
(14:19):
the real watching point for us and our team at
the moment is going to be the second half of
twenty twenty six. And you know what that means that
right now where we are at, what can we do
to be resilient and control costs going forward because we
know that the place of some of these things is
likely to rise, and you know that is challenging a
lot of what we do within the farm gate requires
(14:41):
obviously even fertilizer itself is going to be more expensive,
but also getting their foot on and of course the
trucking and everything up and the rest of the supply
chain when it comes to moving animals around. So lots
of watching points there. But certainly the second half of
the air I think is going to be actually more
of a worry than we were at right now.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Twenty twenty five, the story was Trump's tariffs. Twenty twenty six,
the story is Trump's war. Goodness knows what he will
come up with in twenty twenty seven. Let's hope he
calms the farmer weebit and we can all get down
to business. Jen corkran out a rabobank Thanks for your
time today on the Country. Thanks Jamie again, Thank you Jen.
Twenty seven after twelve Cameron Bagrie talking about that period
(15:22):
of calm. What did he say off the top of
my head was at nineteen ninety three to twenty and
nineteen and of course that was the beginning of the
well beginning of the COVID era. Wasn't it late twenty nineteen,
early two thousand or early twenty twenty We I think
(15:43):
we've gone to the year two thousand for these songs.
What's she doing with s Club seven on my show?
I'll ask her shortly. Michelle Watt with the latest and
rural news. We've got sports news for you as well.
I'm on the case of Dan Bolton, the chief executive
of Silver Fern Farms, and Joe Luxton. When is she
coming out with some egg poll the labor A spokesperson.
All that before the end of the hour, but up
(16:04):
next we're off to Shanghai. Our guy there is Hunter McGregor,
the he's our guy in Shanghai a Kiwi selling a
(16:32):
red meat and venison to the Chinese. His name is
Hunter MacGregor. Hunter. We're going to talk about the first
of the new season fruit Kiwi fruit and Apple's arriving
onto Chinese sholves. But before we do, I want to
talk about fuel pricing and fuel supply in China. How
are you fearing bearing in mind you are and I'm
talking about China. You are a friend of Iran.
Speaker 6 (16:54):
Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie. Since we last talked, the prices
have gone up about quite a significant price increase a
while ago. But what they've done is they've capped the
price increase. It should have more less been twice as
large as what the price increase was. And what they
actually do is they have two very large state and
(17:16):
oil companies here and they use their balance sheets and
pop up funding through that to keep the price, especially
of diesel, not too high. Now, China has a hell
of a lot of electric car vehicles and big cities,
the smaller trucks that are delivering around the cities and
also turning into evs as well electric trucks. But if
(17:39):
you get out of the cities on the big roads,
now all the big trucks are diesel. So the country
here still runs on diesel and more for the foreseeable future,
so you know that they're restricting how high that increases,
and they're funding that to keep the country moving. So
you know it's going to be a challenge for everyone,
and it's going to be a price challenge. But here
(18:00):
they got some mechanism in place to protect the price
of diesel and not get it too high, so you
know the country won't come to a groning hole. But
it doesn't seem to be any issues on the supply
side at the moment here, so which is good.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Talk to me about the first of the new season
apples and kiwi fruit heading into China.
Speaker 6 (18:19):
Well, actually, yesterday the first seasons of the Zespriy's kiwi
fruit arrived into a Shanghai port. They had a big,
big pr push and they'll be I'm sure there'll be
a big marketing push in the next few days. So look,
we would take a day or two for that stuff
to get onto the shelves around around Shanghai and then
push into other parts of the country. So looking forward
(18:40):
to getting my hands on some of this elusive red
kiwi fruit. I'm pretty sure I'll have a bit more
of that, and then you know, apples has started to launch.
And I saw a really interesting thing the other day
posted I picked it up from the New Zealand government
that actually six out of the ten apples imported into
are from New Zealand. So you know, then the China
(19:03):
produces a hell of a lot of apples, but New
Zealand apples, I think just a little bit superior good stuff.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Who would want to be a Chinese pig farmer at
the moment, Yeah.
Speaker 6 (19:13):
Well, no, it's really interesting. Prior to COVID, the Chinese
pork price and the other protein prices like beef and
especially lamb were kind of linked, you know, with the
swine fever, prices of pork went up and then lamb
went through the roof. But now since COVID, they're not
linked at all. So you've got really strong demand for beef.
(19:34):
Beef prices are high obviously around the world, included here.
You've got high prices for lamb. But the Chinese pork
farmers are at a sixteen year low with regards to pricing.
You know, they're losing over forty dollars ahead at least,
and that's only going to increase as costs increase and
the biggest reason is over supply and weak demand. So
(19:58):
you know, it's very tough for I'm here a pig
farmer here. At the moment, the produce a hell of
a lot of pigs, so it's going to be a
bit of a drain on the economy. And they reckon,
it's going to take about six to eight months before
the supply and things were turned back to balance. But
in the meantime, you know, there's some cheap pork prices here,
but it's off weak demand. And now we see that
(20:20):
and what we do here. You know, restaurants are a
lot of strongs as they have been in the past,
and that's pushing through the everything.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
And you reckon. New Zealand could benefit from Australians hitting
their beef quota because once they get past that quota
there's a fifty five percent terriff applied.
Speaker 6 (20:38):
Yeah. No, this year the Chinese brought in a beef
quite a system for a number of countries, including New Zealand.
But Australians have just hit fifty percent of their yearly
quota already, so we're three months in, so you know,
on the back end of this year there will be opportunities,
more opportunities for New Zealand beef, which which we won't
(21:00):
had our quota at all. But you know, the end
of the day, at high end restaurants, grain fed beef
is not going to be replaced by grasshad beef. But
there will be opportunities for New Zealand beef companies here,
which would be great.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
And a final fun fact, maybe this isn't good news
for our forestry industry. China added three point six million
hectares of new forest in twenty twenty five, bringing national
forest coverage rate to over twenty five percent. They'll be
becoming self sufficient in trees.
Speaker 6 (21:35):
Well, you know, a lot of it's reclaiming the Gobi Desert.
It's not probably pinus radiator or trees, but you know,
China's had a big push of reforesting and regriming the
place in twenty five percent is a big number. But
you know, the three point six million hected, it's about
twenty five percent of the size of the South Island,
(21:57):
so you know that's the heir of a big area
in one year. You know that they're pushing to grow
a few more trees here, but I don't think it
will affect the New Zealand forestry in the short term,
because I don't see too many pinous radiata trees around
the countryside. So yeah, but it's good to see.
Speaker 2 (22:15):
Okay, Hunter McGregor, thanks for your time from Shanghai. Go
and enjoy some new season Kiwi fruit and Kiwi apples.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
Oh well, thanks Jamie.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Thank you Hunter. Yeah, what a great fact. Thank you Hunter.
Six out of ten apples importer than to China come
from New Zealand. So the music today comes from the
year two thousand. I liked Macy Gray, this one not
so much. Michelle Watts, producer, What were you doing in
(22:46):
the year two thousand?
Speaker 7 (22:48):
I was sitting my school see exams, I said.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
Juy for the first and last time.
Speaker 7 (22:53):
I didn't have to do it more than once, luckily,
although mats was not my strong point. But we won't
talk about that.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
No, we won't talk about that, all right. So hmmm,
S Club seven just the boy boy and girl band,
wasn't it.
Speaker 7 (23:08):
Yeah, you can't be sad about that. Invented in the UK,
of course, named after the inventor, Simon Simon cow That's
why they different Simon, a different Simon.
Speaker 2 (23:16):
D Okay, well, let's get back, get the show back
on the road. Here's Rural News.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
The Contries, World News with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn bower brands it Steel for dot cote
Onions for your local Stoggist and.
Speaker 7 (23:31):
In rural News. Fonterra has completed the sale of its
global consumer and associated business as Mainland Group, to French
dairy giant lacked Lease for four point two two billion dollars.
The sale, announced last year, involves some of Fonterra's most
recognized brands, including Anchor Mainland and Carpety Fontira chairman Peede
McBride sees the completion of the sal as a significant
milestone which sets the cooperative up for the future. And
(23:53):
you can find more headlines on air website, on the
country dot code.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
And you dairy farmers, you lucky Fonterra Farmer shareholders. I
think you're getting the big check in the mail on
April the fourteenth. I'm sure you'll have plenty of places
where you can spend it. Let's have a look at sport.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Sports on the country with AFCO one percent ke we owned.
Speaker 3 (24:12):
That's rare.
Speaker 2 (24:13):
Hey, we didn't talk over John mckavn's liner today. Either
did we no, we did a good job. Did a
good job. That'll keep him off my case. Ah, who
would be a rugby league player? A Warriors co captain
Mitch Barnett, this is the bloke we missed most of
last year with injury by memory has broken his right
thumb and could be out of the NRL season for
(24:34):
up to six weeks. It was to Mighty Williams yesterday
Mitch Barnett, good player, he's out today. Our New Zealand
cricket selectors are keen to see more from left arm
pace bowler Thomas O'Connor. And I think he's shown O'Connor's son,
isn't he he is? That's right? Yeah, okay, so Thomas O'Connor.
Before thrusting him into the international environment. The twenty one
(24:54):
year old has grabbed headlines at the back of the
Plunket Shield season, taking twenty seven wickets in four matches. Regardless,
Black Cats coach Rob Walter says there's no room for
him on the development tour to Sri Lanka in April.
Otarga a very strong finish in the Plunket Shield and
finally twelve tests All Blacks. Locke Josh Lord has extended
(25:16):
as too New Zealand Rugby the Chiefs and Taranaki through
until the end of twenty twenty nine. Good player Josh Lord,
and he plays for Smiley's Club, I think Coastal. Imagine
if you had three Barretts back and Josh Lord playing
and you were one of the neighboring rugby teams in
the Taranaki region and you had to play those blokes
(25:38):
on a Saturday. It wouldn't be easy, would it.
Speaker 7 (25:40):
You just got home, wouldn't you.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Well, I don't know about that, but so look back
in my day. Back in my day, we used to
get to play against all blacks, even in our local
sub union competition year Kenny's Stewart, Ash McGregor, Lester Rutlans
if we went over to Winton, those were the days.
Those were the days. Anyhow, up next, what are we
doing next?
Speaker 5 (25:59):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (25:59):
Yes, Stan Bolt and I've got to get a hold
of him. Red meat or the red meat industry dominating
the show a bit today. Dan Bolton's the chief executive
of silver Fern Farms, the country's biggest meat company. They've
just reported an annual net profit after tacks of twenty
(26:21):
nine million dollars. That is a turnaround from a loss
of twenty one million and twenty twenty four that's a
fifty million dollar turnaround Dan, albeit with a total revenue
of over three billions. So when I look at that
in percentage terms, your profit's only one percent of your
total turnover. Should we be concerned or is that just
the red meat business?
Speaker 8 (26:43):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Great to be on your show and
great to be announcing you know, the turn run and
performance that we've seen at Civil Fin's arms, which was
much needed. So yeah, what's driven the result? You have
really strong market returns, But to your point, you know,
is twenty nine million dollars sufficient? I think we can
do a lot better on that. But I think in
the light of very low livestock volumes through twenty twenty
(27:05):
five and the pressure at farm gat around pecuma prices,
I think it was a very hard fought result. There's
something we're pretty proud of in a huge amount of
dicipline across the business to deliver that result. So fifty
million dollar turnaround in the current context is something we
should celebrate.
Speaker 2 (27:21):
I guess when it comes to returns to farmers. It's
all about the returns to them rather than the overall
companies profit, although you do need profits to be able
to reinvest into your business.
Speaker 8 (27:32):
Yeah, that's right, Jamie. If we want a resilience sector,
we need to have a resilient processing sector as well,
so making sure margins are shared equitably through the supply
chain all the way back into farm gate. But you
know something we am pretty proud of is you know,
the turnaround at farm Got pricing this last eighteen months
has been outstanding. To give you context, we've paid our
farmers on a per animal basis on average last year
(27:54):
thirty two percent more than in the twenty twenty four
year period. So that's building confidence and farmers are definitely
looking to the future with more confidence in what they
had previously.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
We've spoken to Jen Corkran already on the show. She
implied it without actually saying it, Beef's looking better than
lamb at the moment. Or did I misread her comments.
Speaker 8 (28:16):
I didn't hear that, but I can tell you both
beef and lamb is looking favorable. Structurally. The market is
strong in terms of strong demand. I think what we're
seeing is just a little bit of softening happening in
some of our key markets, particularly UK and Europe on LAMB,
which she may be referring to. And I think what
we're also going to see in the coming months is
(28:36):
as livestock pressure is building into Q two, we'll see
a bit of easing and farm gat pricing more about
procurement pressure easing for his capacity is fill up me
and there's beginning to be weights at our processing sights.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
No one knows when or how this Middle East conflict
will end or sort itself out, but one thing we
do know for certain is that the likes of international
freight prices are taking a bit of a hike. Have
you factored that in.
Speaker 8 (29:04):
Yeah, we have so clearly costs across the supply chain escalating,
you know, whether that's fuel, whether that's packaging, and we
see that being a factor in the next of the
three to six months. You know, as you said, we
don't know when it's going to finish. But I think
you know, those disruptions that we see in a supply chain,
we're used to those. We can be agile, and we've
(29:25):
got some really strong partners in our supply chain to
help mitigate some of those costs flowing down. But our
job is just to be as transparent as we can
as around how that plays out and making sure our
farmers are well informed around potential cost increases.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
As I said, you're the country's largest meat company operating
fourteen processing plants killing sheep, beef and venison. If I'm
a sheep, beef or deer farmer listening to this, have
I got reason to be confident heading into the twenty
six twenty seven season. Dan, this far out, I.
Speaker 8 (29:56):
Think, you know, there are some of the supply chain
issues we're looking at the moment. I think fundamentally the
demand is really really strong, and I think we should
be excited about the future. You know, I guess two areas.
You know, global production of red meat is contracting. You
look at South America and North America on beef, those
numbers are shrinking EU u K their production shrinking. Australian
(30:18):
lamb numbers are down. So all that there is really
positive in the back of when there's actually really strong demand,
growing middle classes, greatest awareness, greater awareness of health and
nutrition on our sustainable protein. Both of those are really
really positive. So we'll work through the challenges that are
in front of us around the Middle East and the
wider global ones. But I think if you lo across
(30:39):
a two to three year period, it's really favorable in
terms of you're a protein producer here in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (30:45):
Thank God the Americans love Hamburger A Dan, thanks for
your time. Congratulations on a good annual result from Silver
Firm Farms.
Speaker 8 (30:52):
Thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Joe Luxton is Labour's agriculture spokesperson. I was looking forward,
Joe to spending some quality time with you last Friday
at the Federated Farmer's High Country Field Day at the
Magnificent Glenary Station, but Joe, you were a no show.
Where were you?
Speaker 4 (31:19):
Oh good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, would be lovely to spend
some really good quality time with you, I'm sure. But
we've had a bit of illness in our caucus and
had leaves planned to head down on thusday, but we
were unable to get our leave got rescinded due to
lots of people being away sick in Parliament has to
(31:41):
be the priority for us, So with a real shame
because I really really enjoyed the high Country field Days
last year.
Speaker 5 (31:48):
It was really great.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Well, I think feed's were keen to talk to the opposition.
You know, Heaven help us, you might be the government
at the end of the year, Joe. But as it was,
it was just a whole lot of nodding heads from
New Zealand first and the NATS. But never mind, you've
missed out on that one. What are you guys, What
are you guys in labor going to do about the
free trade agreement with India. I put it to you,
(32:11):
and I know you've got some reservations about it, but
I put it to you it'd be an act of
economic sabotage or treason, should I say, if you guys
didn't get in behind this and support it now more
than ever we need India.
Speaker 4 (32:24):
Neighbor has always had a real strength when it comes
to trade. You know, we've got several really good trade
agreements across the line and our time, thanks to the
hard work of Damian. Look, there are some concerns about
some of the things within the trade agreement. You know,
we really want to work constructively with the government on this,
(32:45):
and I know that Chris is seeking some more clarification
from the government. You're just some concerns about bits in
there that you know if that sign news will end
up to be able to deliver certain things and what
happens if we can't quite deliver that water the implication.
So there's you know, there's a few of those things
to work through. They are actually really important because we
(33:07):
certainly don't want to put New Zealand in a position
where we get penalized for not being able to deliver
on our end of the bargain. So that's just something
that's been worked through.
Speaker 2 (33:17):
Where do you or labor sit on this LNG terminal
in Taranaki? It looks like it might be gassed for
want of a better word, because I think liquefied natural
gas has gone up more in percentage terms than crude oil,
So it may not be the answer, the fix all
we were looking for.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
We've had concerns about this right from the get go
in our spokes SSS in Meghan Woods has expressed that
quite clearly in the House through questions and what have you.
But what we are seeing now with the prices overseas
just highlights what our concerns have been. And there is
if we were to go ahead with this, we were
(34:00):
to be held to rensom So to speak to gas
prices overseas, and which would potentially at the moment if
we were using this would see higher prices for us
here in New Zealand to pay. And that's not a
good thing. That's the exact opposite of what we need
to do.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Joe Luxton. One. To finish on, I want to go
back to that Federated Farmer's High Country Field day. One
of the things that was the key topics was the
wilding pines and conifers. The risks to a beautiful farm
like Graneri and the seed source can be twenty or
thirty kilometers away. It is such a problem not only
(34:39):
down south but right around the country. And I know
you've had a good look at wilding pines. As a nation,
this is a real threat to some of our productive land.
Speaker 4 (34:50):
It's an absolute threat, Jamie, without a doubt. And it's
not just a threat to our productive land, but it
also has implications, for example, with our fires and all
those sorts of things that could potentially break out if
they continue to take up. This is something that's really
front of mind for me, Jamie, and it has been
for quite some time. I'm actually really focused on trying
(35:11):
to put together you know, what I think would be
and you'll be pleased to hear this policy.
Speaker 2 (35:17):
What a policy, Joe. You can't give me a policy
an election. I've been waiting two years for some and you're.
Speaker 4 (35:23):
Going to have to wait a bit longer yet. But
that I'm really focused on, Jamie. I've heard loud and
clearly seen it so myself. It is a real concern,
and I think, you know, we invested money when we
were lasting government to take all this problem and we
were making some gains. Sadly it's you know, seems to
(35:43):
have fallen away a little bit and getting out of
control even more so, it is definitely something that's front
of mine for me. Jamie.
Speaker 2 (35:51):
Well, good on you, Joe. Some policy from the Labor
Party on eg that's good. Next next thing, Trump will
end the war we live in hope. Hey, thanks for
your time.
Speaker 4 (36:01):
All right, thank you, Jamie, Good on you, Joe.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
Always a good sport. Could do with a bit more
policy though, right. That wraps the country for today. Tomorrow
I'm assuming the Prime Minister will be on God for
doctor Victoria Hatton caught up with her at the Impact
Summit again in christ Church, Food Futurist Hopefully Serene Taylor.
What happened to the debate with Siren and the Prince
(36:25):
of the Province is Martua Shane over gold mining and
Central Otago. In our Farmer Panel, Craig Dairyman, Hickman and
Duncan Hum we will catch you at same time, same
place tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (36:43):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Aisuzu Get Demo deals
on the tough Dmax Today
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