May 18, 2026 • 40 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Shane Jones, Cameron Bagrie, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, and Phil Duncan.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Watch
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to a Suzu get demo
deals on the tough Dmax. Today they had.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
A chance chance with.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Someone that you.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Are you gonna freak the grave? Are you somewhere get
a New Zealand Welcome to the Country. The show is
(00:47):
brought to you by Caesar and Farmlands. Shane Jones is
going to kick off the show. The Prince of the Provinces,
The Mighty Marto are self titled. He was in Queenstown
yesterday along with Dave Seymour and Chloe and all sorts
of other people and they were having a big debate
on electrifying New Zealand. And we know that Shane's keenon
(01:09):
digging up fossil fuels and burning them. How did he go?
Was the odd one? Was he the odd one out
in that room? We'll ask him next. We'll also look
at it his hair brain scheme or his boss's hair
brain scheme. And my humble opinion of buying the B
and Z are Cameron Bagri Independent economists. There's a four
point one percent rise in global food prices in the
(01:31):
last two months. Now you'd have to assume a lot
of that is due to the golf crisis the Middle
East War. But what does that mean for New Zealand farmers?
Global bonds are rising, it's keeping the New Zealand dollar
under sixty US cents, which is good for exporters, no
good when you're buying fuel. We've got our own official
(01:51):
cash rate review on May twenty seventh, and should we
be buying the B and Z. Finally, I'm going to
ask him. We've got a lot to get through with Cameron.
What's going to be in the budget for farmers. The
answer will be next to nothing, which is the way
it should be, unlike the old bear and backy budgets
of Rob Muldoon. Doctor Jaquelin Rowath, one of our leading
(02:13):
primary sector academics, is a big event at Field Days.
This is a monster in the very best sense of
the word monster. It's the Rural Rural Support Trust fundraising
debate and dinner held on the Wednesday evening of Field Days.
I think, and I'll check it if it is or not.
(02:33):
I think it's sold out. Plus we're going to have
a look at the link between nitrates and drinking water
and stomach cancer. Is the one. Phil Duncan missed him,
Yes that I'm going to get him today because this
is a really important topic. We are headed apparently for
an impending super al Nino event. How worried should we
(02:55):
be and in what parts of the country should you
be particularly worried. We're going to have bit of a
deep dalve into that with Phil on the show today.
Michelle will wander in here. We'll have a look at
rural news for you and also update sport Change oones,
Next Change oones, amongst other things. He wears many hats
(03:30):
as the Minister of Resources, We're going to talk about
fuel and how much we've got and whether the fuel
crisis is lessening. But talking about fuel change Jones, you
were in Queenstown yesterday at an electrify Queenstown debate. You
would have been the odd man out there, wouldn't you.
Everyone else wants to electrify. You want to dig, baby
(03:53):
dig and burn coal. Ah.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
Yes, I was in Queenstown yesterday and there are a
few in the audience who wanted to electrocute the good
matur because of my views about fossil fuels. But oh look,
I've got to go into the lions Den occasionally full
marks for the people that sponsored the conference, your local
council down there. They promoted the event and quite a
few of the things that were being said, you have
(04:16):
to agree with them, but we cannot completely rule out
coal or gas. Now we had Chippy there, he's a winger,
stands up with his ginger up kind of plaintive voice,
completely overlooking the fact that they've ruined the gas industry.
Gave an ai generated speech, some kind of computer generated narrative,
(04:40):
and then he wouldn't stand up in the debate, and
he got Meghan and she refused to apologize for canceling
the oil and gas industry. But other than that, David
Seymour and I we traded barbes. But that's part of
the humor of the event. And Simeon sat there claiming
unwisely that the fast Track legislation national policy. It wass
(05:01):
Shane and Winston who bought the fast Track into the
coalition agreement. Of course it's so successful in the National
Party and now claiming it there is no place for
magpie behavior in the world of coalition politics.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Mindje Meghan Woods was blaming you for kicking to touch
like Onslow and I've always struggled with the theory of
using energy to pump water uphell just to catch some
energy on the way down. But apparently it works. Have
we made a mistake there?
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Well?
Speaker 4 (05:33):
No, I'm advisor David Parker and the most famous engineer
in my lifetime as Keith Turner. They are still working
on it, and they're confident that they can fund it
predominantly without a cash injection from the Crown, and if
they're able to find some customers and make it work,
all power to their hand. I think that we do
(05:55):
need to damn another river somewhere. Of course, kiwis on
ever agree. I never agree with that need to accelerate
to your thermil Look, Kiwi's listening to this highly popular program.
If you want energy, we have to expand supply. If
you want affordable energy, we need to cut the gentailors
and in half. And just as we're going to deal
to the calcified attitudes and the oligopolies that comprise the
(06:19):
banking sector, we are going to smash the gentailors in half.
What's what happens on November the ninth.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
I'm going to come back to the banks because I
think you and Winston have got that badly wrong. But
let's just stick with energy. You're the Minister of Resources.
Is the fuel crisis lessening.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
Well, Sadly, prices are spiking, but you know as well
as I do in the OECD ranks and also in
relation to a number of our Southeast Asian neighbors, we
do have the ability to pay. We do not have
the fiscal headroom to continually subsidize gas prices in New Zealand.
(06:59):
Therefore we're going to have to learn to cope with
expanded prices. You and I know that our agricultural sector
is very resilient. Supply is continuing to work as intended
with our statutory obligations that the oil and import companies
have to abide by. But look, no one's exaggerating how
(07:23):
challenging it is made and I do feel for our
productive sector and the household, but we should be very
proud of the fact that our government imposed some obligations
on the fuel imported companies. They wanted a just in
time model. And the only thing that we're battling with
is when Jacinda closed down the Marsenpoint refinery and destroyed
(07:45):
seven hundred and ten million liters of storage capacity. Which
I had to save with the money to recommission one
hundred million liters of additional storage, something that Labor and
Megan refused to do. Didn't find the money. Sadly, the
good matur I was able to do that, and that
will be full of diesel during the course of the
(08:07):
next month.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
That's almost as many letters as trees you wanted to
plant misguidedly.
Speaker 4 (08:13):
Oh look, I'm not. It's not as incapable of learning lessons.
We've moved on from that phase of plot.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Okay, the billion dollar tree man is now history. What
about the public service reform?
Speaker 5 (08:24):
There?
Speaker 2 (08:24):
I see Nikola wants to cut the numbers down. And
I was reading online this morning when Chasinda, when you'll
mate Winston put Jacinda in In twenty seventeen, there was
forty eight thousand in the public sector December of last year.
Last head count that I can see sixty three thousand,
six hundred. Nicola wants to get it down to fifty
(08:45):
five thousand and twenty twenty nine, back to one percent
of the population. What do they all do?
Speaker 4 (08:51):
Well? There is a famous saying. From time to time,
you have to mow the lawn, and if you don't
mow the lawn all sorts of strange weeds Kai Kuia.
You probably don't have that grass down in the South Island.
I don't even know if the farmers so past pellum.
We used to have it as kids on our farm. Yeah,
certain weeds grow and look a bit of mowing now
and again doesn't go astray. But we need to bear
(09:14):
in mind these are fellow keywis we're talking about, and
providing that the positions they occupy have a legitimate role,
then they're safe. If they are filigree and they're not
contributing towards productivity, our finance minister is saying that they
can be rationalized and there'll be space because the private
(09:35):
sector will grow in order to deliver other goods and
services that the public sector can no longer is no
longer needed. I mean I can only look at my
beloved fishing industry and indeed the resource sector. There are
people occupying positions in those areas where perhaps technology and
a more rational approach means that the industry can deliver
(09:57):
them rather than the state. I think that that's an
important debate we need to have. And also, Mate, we've
got to grow the economy. We've got to grow jobs.
We've got to grow exports, and to do that we
need to change the law from time to time encourage investment,
and we're going to have to take risks. You want
to know, one of the reasons why our power prices
(10:19):
are high is because just Simda and Megan canceled at
oil and gas industry. So why don't we expand geo
thermal energy, make certain zones capable of growing energy because
you won't need a resource consent. And also go overseas
and see if the Japanese will come here off the
coast of South Island. Work with the crowd will help
(10:40):
de risk it and actually find some new areas of
oil and gas and restarter o a new industry.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
How are you getting on getting rid of regional councils.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
Well, that work is underway with my colleagues from the
National Party. I mean, obviously I'm not the minister, but
there is no place for these regional cals as is
the example you've referred to down your neck of the
woods and Otiger. I mean Otigo was built on a
gold rush. I just didn't know that a golden like
dome would emerge. In terms of your new regional council
(11:12):
building down there.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Not to mention the xenram. Rightyo, let's address the elephant
in the room. What the hell I mean you and
Winston put your center in. I'll forgive you for that.
I don't know if I can actually the billion trees.
I don't know if I can forgive you for that either. Shamee.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
But buyingsn't all bad, all bad.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
But buying buying the bing zed What is Winston thinking?
This is just plain politicking.
Speaker 4 (11:37):
The banking sector, the power sector, the supermarket sector represent calcified,
monopolistic gouging, villainous behavior. And what we are in the
business of coming into the new election is disrupting the
status quo. Everyone howls and complains, how much money going overseas,
(12:01):
egregious behavior, punitive amounts of dough we have to pay.
Winston puts up a disruptive idea, and all of you
people race to defend the status quo. All of you
people race to defend these failed models. Good on, Winston
on our behalf putting up us.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
You realize that the B and z's value should I say,
at twenty four billion? That is what we spend currently
on superannuation for a whole year. Wouldn't you be better
if you had to spare twenty four billion dollars Shane Jones,
which you haven't. I don't need to remind you of that.
Wouldn't you be better to chuck that straight into Kiwi
Bank and beef it up. You buy the B and
(12:40):
Z and amalgamate it with Kiwibank. You've only got four
major banks instead of five. Where's the logic in that?
Speaker 4 (12:47):
And don't you agree that? Now we're having the debate
prior to Winston introducing this issue, stirring everyone up, disrupting
the status quo. The cozy club that profit from kiwis
enriches everyone sat back in this air of complacency. That's
what New Zealand First does. We break up the cozy
(13:07):
complacency of the big end of New Zealand's corporate panel.
Mahogany ruined entitlement. No, that's why New Zealand First is
going to be exceedingly well in the new upcoming election.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
I would call it populist nationalistic politics. I'm not a
mile away there either, am I.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Well, we are popular and we are nationalists. And by
the way, I'm a politician.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Shane Jones, thanks as always for your time on the country.
I appreciate it so buddy. Thank you, Shane. Always entertaining
even if you don't always agree with them. Shane Jones
calling Winston's idea to buy the ben zed a disruptive idea.
Probably was disruptive when the B and Z read about it. Anyhow,
(13:54):
we're going to get an expert in the field, Cameron Bagger,
to comment on that and other things. Four point one
percent and global rise and global food prices in the
last two months, what that means for New Zealand farmers
and what's in the budget for farmers. Here's a farmer
who's texted and said, I take umbrage as every farmer should.
(14:16):
That's your intro statement around around and he quotes me
here there being nothing in the budget for farming and
there shouldn't be. He goes on to write the text,
are not me The food production sector urgently needs more
funding for science gee very importantly the EPA, as we're
being left behind the rest of the world in chemistry
(14:38):
and bioactives. Damien m'connor must have really got on your
air for a vote on Saturday night. Damien was at
the Century Farm and Station Awards. Look, that's a fair point, Texter.
But what I meant you' and probably clumsily delivered it.
I'm going back to the days and I referenced bear
and backy budgets from Rob Bowl doing where there were
(15:00):
straight handouts to the rural sector, the farmers. You don't
need that. You've proved getting through the rogernomics and ever
since then that farmer can stand on its own two feet.
What it needs is a political environment that's conducive to
doing business, just as business needs an environment that's conducive
to doing business. Anyhow, we'll discuss that with Cameron bagriy
(15:25):
up next. We've got our OCR announcement or statement coming
up on May twenty seventh. With all this inflation happening
around the world at the moment, are we in threat
or under threat of an OCR rise as early as
May twenty seven? Cameron will tell us next on the Country,
(15:55):
fling away from the crack doubleway, good black Man, and
twenty four after twelve You're worth the country, Cameron Bagri.
Independent economists, my economists, my favorite economist here on the country.
Always a go to guy, Cameron. Right, let's start with
(16:15):
this four point one percent rise in global food prices
and obviously the resulting inflation around that not good news.
But could it be every cloud having a silver lining?
Could this be good news for New Zealand farmers?
Speaker 5 (16:33):
Well, the potendially, But if you look at where we're
seeing those rises, initially, they're coming through what's what's called oils.
They're not coming through dairy or meat of the state
that those speakers come out of the Food and Agriculture
organizaly And what they illustrate is it the shock that
we're seeing around the globe in the form of an
energy fuel, what we put in the tank of the
(16:53):
card these all that sort of stuff. That's the first
round effect. What we're now starting to see is coming
through that FAO food price measure which is up four
point one percent. Now that's a sign that you fertilize
the prices are moving up. We're starting to see producer
prices that are starting to move up around the globe
and they're going to move into consumer prices. So what
(17:15):
have we seen in the past week, Jamie, A bit
of an inflation jel where US inflation was up, bond
prices or bond yields in the United States are up
as well. Blind prices go up, equity markets tend to
become a little bit more uncertain regard to what's sort
of going on, to a lot more nervous is out
there because of inflation and food price inflation is this
(17:35):
one component of that.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
So global bonds are up. That's not good because yes,
as you say, it lowers the equity markets, which might
not be a bad thing in some markets, but also
increases the likelihood of inflation. But it also keeps our
exchange rate a wee bit lower. And this is obviously
very much a double edged sword for US as an
exporting nation at the moment when we're trying to import
(17:58):
stuff like fuel and fertilizer.
Speaker 5 (18:02):
Yeah, it is. But if I guess, if you have
a step back for a while now, we've been talking
about it, because I've been pointing out that I think
I've thought for a while that the United States has
had a lot more what's good, sticky and undercurrent of
inflation and alarm and behold, headline inflation in the United
States is rocket up wide because of gas prices. But
if we look at the latest reads on core inflation
(18:23):
in the United States, they're up. Doesn't matter where you
look at the consumer price index, doesn't matter where you
look at what's called the private consumption expenditure measure. These
things are trending around three three and a half percent
now they're supposed to be around two percent. So what
we've seen is the market has flipped in the United States.
In the market three to six months ago, we're saying
the US Fed, a reserve that's the central bank, could
(18:46):
be cutting rates. Well, now the market's starting to think
that their central bank, like every other central bank around
the globe, is probably need to be hiking industrates. And
of course if they're hiking in theustrates even though we are,
but the market has repriced them more than us. That
helps keep that New Zealand dollar US dollar, and that
sub sixty cent zone is what we call on that
very export friendly zone. Not great for importers, but a
(19:08):
pretty good number for exporters.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Could we possibly get a lift in the OCI as
early as May twenty seven.
Speaker 5 (19:15):
I've been on the record as saying, look, if it's
the reserve bank, I'd go early. And the reason I'll
go early, it's the old sort of maximum stitch in
time might save nine. So if you think you need
to have a little bit of work to do, you
better get it in there a little bit early. They're
supposed to go late, because if you go late, you
might have need to go They had a lot more
yet the data at the moment is probably not quite
(19:36):
there for the going may so need to be a
little bit of a leap of faith. But you're stepping back, Jamie.
It doesn't matter with your locket. The United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Europe,
and the United States New Zealand interest rates are moving up.
Why it's not just because global oil prices have moved up.
The most central banks around the globe, they've still got
(19:56):
an undercurrent of sticky core inflation in the two and
a half to three percent three and a half percents
are on the top of that, you've got a bit
of what's good a good shop. So central bank is
going to be a little bit sweaty, a little bit
nervous over the next sort a few months.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
That's funny how you mentioned Australia. We we've always called
it the lucky country. Is it lucky now?
Speaker 5 (20:19):
No? I think I've got a suspicion a few chickens
are going to come under roost. In Australia. The Reserve
Bank of Australia has lifted their cash straight three times
since the start of the year. Why because I've got
core inflation but three three and a half percent. The
headline inflation rate is four point six. Australia has been
(20:40):
suffering for the past couple of years that same old disease.
The New Zeons had by e weak productivity growth and
what's called high unit labor costs. Your unit labor costs
are beaches divided by productivity. The unit labor costs in
Australia are up fifteen percent in the past three years.
Your good luck running a business when you've got that
sort of labor cross pressure you. Meanwhile, the Australian property
(21:03):
market is sort of rocked on over the past sort
of a few years. Australia hasn't had a decent economic shakeout
since about nineteen ninety one nineteen ninety two, hence that
phrase the so called lucky country. The bottom line is,
and we saw this in twenty three, twenty four, twenty
five in New zeone. When you need to break the
(21:24):
back of inflation, you need to Dish had some economic pain,
and I think that economic pain is around the corner
in Australia. Why because they've got an inflation problem and
they've got a reserve bank that's fixated a lot of inflation.
So what's the space. You could see an awful lot
of New Zelanders that have gone to Australia. Side on
the side, I'm coming home.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
I just got my air tute. At the beginning of
the show from a farmer, maybe he had a fair
point about me saying there shouldn't be anything in the
budget for farmers. I was referring to the bear and
backy budgets when there used to be straight out handouts,
but literally the carpetter's bear at Mother Hubbard. There won't
be much in the budget for farmers. All the government
can do is have a conducive environment for farmers to
(22:05):
get on with doing the job.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yeah, well there's that. I had a function and I'm
wanting to that I am. It was a function based
talking about the well Into City Council. Of course, all
these people are saying what's what can well Into the
City Council do to drive regional growth? And my view
of that was that they can take us to the
zero line, and people say, what's the zero line? And
the zero line is that don't screw it up, don't
get in the way, And that's a guess. The way
(22:30):
I think about central government and local government. You've got
a job to do. Do the job. But if we
think that central government and local government is going to
lead the way, then I'm not sure that's you that's
where we're going to be going. You know, then are they?
If you've got your own money in the game, and
by your own money, that's real cash. You need to
(22:51):
take real resk to make real money. And I'm not
convinced that central local government has got the attributes of
in terms have taken real restate real money. Let's take
us to the zero line, do the basis pretty well,
and let the privacy need to take over from there
because we know how to take a manage risk.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Okay, let's just finish on Winston. Is he barking up
the wrong tree or is he just plane barking mad?
Wanting to buy the b n Z. I was reading
another economist, Michael Radell, saying that the Benz's the Z
has valued it twenty four billion, and that's what we spent.
That's what it costs us to fund National super for
one year. Surely we've got better things to spend twenty
(23:30):
four billion on. Even though Winston seems to think he's
going to buy it for seven point five billion, Well.
Speaker 5 (23:36):
Yeah, ben Z, he had actually about one point five billion.
You put a multiple on top of that around fifteen.
They'll probably want more than that than you're talking probably
twenty two to twenty five billion in regard to what
they'll want on the other side. Yeah, so there's no
way that transaction is going to take place. Yeah, So
there's a little bit of political stuff that's going on here,
(23:57):
but you have tip to Winston because what is actually
pointing out is that we've got problems across the bank
sector in New Zealand and regard to competition. What he's
put on the table is of course one of the
sort of solutions that's here Braine, it's not going to
take place. But what he's caught on too, it's the
same with supermarkets, is that we've got an issue here
in regard to what the respective return on equities are
(24:19):
out of those entities compared to what they're getting in
comparative countries such as Australia. So the bigger issue here
is competition. The solution is not buying one of them out.
That's here brain. But what he's identified and caught on
to is that there is a big issue here, So
let's sort this issue out, but through other means.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Hey, Cameron Bagri, great to chat to you on the country.
Always appreciate your wisdom and input.
Speaker 5 (24:43):
Jeers Amy.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
It's got isn't he? Cameron Bagri? Right? That is twenty
seven away from one. We're going to break and come
back with rural news, sports news before the end of
their Doctor Jack Willnroe with the head of the big
primary sector or the Rural Support Trust, sorry Rural Support
Trust fundraising debate at Field Days. This is the night
to end all nights and Fell Duncan on the Super
al Nino. How worried should you be? Oh, welcome back
(25:17):
to the country. Twenty four away from one. Here's Michelle
with the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
The Country's Rural News with cub Cadet. It's one thing
to talk innovation, another to back it up drive it.
We dare you visit steel for dot cot Nz for
your local store.
Speaker 6 (25:33):
Guest Beef and Lamb New Zealand has launched a new
tool to help sheep farmers get more value from their flocks.
Called Improof Tracker, it gives farmers a clearer picture of
flock genetics and how those are tracking over time. Developed
with the Ministry of Primary Industries through the Cool Sheep Program,
it was unvaled this week at the Sheep Breeder Forum.
The tool will also be demonstrated to farmers as the
(25:54):
Outthgate Conference in christ Church this week. Beef and Lamb
New Zealand sees it's part of a Whyer push to
develop deliver practical on farm value to farmers. You can
find more news at the Country dot co dot nz
and don't forget to catch all of the Country shows
and interviews on the Country podcast on iHeart.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
Sport On the Country with AFCO one dred percent key
we owned That's rare.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Golfer Adam Scott's place has been confirmed for the one
hundred and twenty sixth US Open, meaning the forty five
year old Australian is poised to play as one hundredth
straight major. Ryan Fox also earns an exemption as part
of the world's Top sixty New Zealand rugby Bossley Steve
Lancaster has dismissed a suggestion their new partnership with Touch
(26:37):
New Zealand is due to growing fares around the risk
of contact sports. And finally, Game one of the NBA
Western Conference Final between Oklahoma City Thunder and the San
Antonio Spurs is just getting underway, kicked off at twelve
thirty up next to Jacqueline, doctor Jacqueline Roweth, who's far
(26:59):
from an evil warm Her name is doctor Jacqueline Rowe
with Fortnightly. She is kind enough to write a great,
(27:21):
a big beautiful I'm sounding like Trump. Colin Fort on
our website Thecountry dot co dot n zaid, Hey, I've
had Shane Jones Jacqueline on the show today, and my goodness,
he's occasionally followin. I don't agree with everything Shane says,
but what a great orator. Now, I think he might
be one of your draw cards at the Rural Support Trust,
(27:44):
big fundraising event that Mike Green puts on at Field Days.
You're the adjudicator. Have we got Shane confirmed?
Speaker 7 (27:51):
Now? The speakers aren't yet confirmed, but as soon as
they are, there will be a great terrah Because people
have been very interested in the debate following life last
year and indeed the whole auction that goes with it
raising money for the Rural Support Trust. And yes it's
Mike Greene who does all the organization. He's a great
man from darren.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Aki, absolutely brilliant. Last year's surprise package for me, I'll
get onto the topic of the day very shortly, was
Sue's ridmain. I didn't know she was that good on
her feet.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Well, we had a.
Speaker 7 (28:21):
Great team last year and George Dodson, who was the
Young Farmer of the Year, he was brought in and
indeed Sarah Pirium was there as well, and she was
really last minute type person. But they all took to
heart the instruction to have fun and so that was
absolutely lovely because they did. And George I was the adjudicator.
(28:43):
As you said, I gave him the Best Speaker award
because he actually did what debaters were supposed to do,
which is set the topic and then address it, as
opposed to some people in debate too, great celebrity debaters
who just say what they want to say.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
So your comment about don't.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I think he might fall under the latter department in here,
Hey and your column, you've referenced T twenty and you
sent me a text this morning ahead of this yarn
about T twenty and I'm thinking, what the hell's Jacqueline
talking about.
Speaker 5 (29:14):
Cricket for not cricket.
Speaker 7 (29:16):
It's the whole leadership expertise thing. So Jenny, congratulations on
your award, your nomination for the one of the primary
industry in New Zealand awards, the communication one. What were
you doing twenty years ago?
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Probably pretty much what I'm doing today.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
So there's the.
Speaker 7 (29:35):
Point about expertise and experience and the leadership work that's
been done by Amander Goodol and Andrew Oswald saying, you know,
if you want a really great coach for a basketball team,
you will find that the research is what that person
was doing twenty years a get go buying basketball at
(29:57):
a high level. We'll give you the clue about his
ability to authors to coach and how quickly it will
make a difference to the team that is coaching. And
this works for universities, hospitals, and they've done the work
on that F one drivers. They're drivers and mechanics. They're
not people with degrees that say I can do this
(30:18):
now and by the way, I've done a couple of
leadership courses, So we need to look at the integrity
in the career path. Really, what were you doing twenty
years ago? What were you doing twenty years before that?
And I'd say for science organizations, we've put them right
in like universities or hospitals. Scientists as well as academics
(30:39):
as well as doctors. They're not driven by money. So
suddenly come in that's been running a business really successfully
and says, so I can run this university. Actually, they're
problem not right because they don't understand the peculiar people
that they're dealing with, because they're motivated by the beauty
of their research, for instance, or the calling for doing
(31:01):
good for people rather than the dollars which are the
common thing in businesses.
Speaker 5 (31:07):
So it's just it's a.
Speaker 7 (31:09):
T minus twenty is a little rule of thumb about
an indication for how good you will be in the future.
And so I'll be doing TEA minus twenty across all
the nominees in the Communication Award and seeing where you sit.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
How come it doesn't work for golf check well onlyhow
let's move on.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
I can't do that.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
A green Peace are about to come out or I
think there's a Danish report linking nitrate and drinking water
to stomach cancer. And you're hot under the collar about
this one.
Speaker 7 (31:40):
Well, it's likely to start inflaming the drinking water issue
on the Canterbury planes again. And I've read the research
and well meaning.
Speaker 3 (31:48):
People they've looked.
Speaker 7 (31:50):
It's like the polar rector cancer paper that are similar.
Some of the overlaps in the authors is twenty seven
years of self reform diet. They've got two hundred and
sixty cases of stomach cancer, and they're saying nitrate and
might try to part of the cause. And though nitrate
(32:11):
from plants is good, nitrate from water isn't. I don't
know how the stomach knows where the sauce is. And
they keep overlooking the fact that the human body to
lets nitrate compounds and recycles them in the saliva. Remember
the bee troat has over eight hundred million of nitrate
(32:32):
in it and you eat it look apparently because it's
good for your heart as well as it can taste
delicious or not, as the case may be. So we
get in a muddle about what we're trying to do here.
So let's reassure everybody doing piece has done the alert,
and I expect the stomach cancer will once so they're getting.
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Ahead of it.
Speaker 7 (32:50):
There are about four hundred diagnoses of stomach cancer in
New Zealand according to the Ministry of Health's website, and
they are really unfortunately smoking that's number one, obesity and
alcohol and sadly three to one Marie Pacific Islander versus
(33:13):
the rest of the population. So I think education about smoking,
obesity and alcohol rather than saying we've got to cut
off all the water supply across New Zealand because there
is no geographical distribution that anybody can see. It's including
Professor Frank Fizzel and any of the cancer research organizations
(33:34):
that says we've got the link with any of these
health problems with where we see higher nitrate in the
drinking water.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
Doctor Jaquelin Roweth, you can read all about it on
our website, The Country dot co dot in Z. Looking
forward to your wonderful performance as adjudicator at the Big
Rural Support Trust debate and dinner on the Wednesday of
Field Days, and to Mike Green and his team. You
do a fantastic job. I think it's sold out but
you might have to google it and find out if
(34:02):
there's a spare seat. If Shane Jones is going to
be there, I'll be there and I will be there,
I think, I mean seeing we're Rowena, So looking forward
to it. See you later, Jacqueline, Yeah, what an event.
Looking forward to that one. I'll let you'll find out
from Mike whether there's any seats left. Right. There's some
feedback from John Hi Jamie. Pumped hydro was normally used
(34:22):
with nuclear power stations as they can't easily be turned down,
so pumping water uses the extra power. Could that be
the Eureka moment? Do we need nuclear power in this country?
Open a can of worms?
Speaker 4 (34:36):
There?
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Up next, Phil Duncan on our Nino, the super al Nino.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
Weather on the country with Fiji, where happiness comes naturally?
Speaker 2 (35:02):
Turn you Mike can't fell Duncan from where the watch
a favorite weather man on a Monday on a Tuesday. Hey, Phil,
this super al Nino of the talk is getting really
serious around this, and I'm old enough to remember as
a kid the drought of seventy two seventy three. Also
we know ninety seven ninety eight was an absolute shocker.
(35:23):
The likes of in places like Marlborough. How concerns should
farmers be in the drier regions of this country for
spring and summer?
Speaker 3 (35:31):
Yeah, gooday, Jamie. I think that water conservation is something
that we probably need to have top of mind going
through the next few months ahead, sort of thinking about
conditions drying out. There are a couple of things though
to focus on. One is that the world is warming,
the sea is warming, the air is warming compared to
those previous al Nino events, and so there is a
(35:52):
little bit of an unknown factor about what that might mean,
and it could mean, you know, maybe we still get
some chance of rain around us. Also, it's worth noting
that al Nino's measured north and northeast of Tahiti quite
a long way away from New Zealand, and so Australia
New Zealand area can be on the edge of it,
which means the Southern Ocean and the Tasman Sea can
still produce rain rain makers. And so when you look
(36:15):
at the next sort of fifteen days where there is
a lot of rain falling north of New Zealand and
west of US and on the West coast as well,
so that bodes well that we're still in neutral. We're
not in Albinho at the moment. It is likely to
happen at some point during our winter, I believe, and
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology they're also saying while confidence
(36:36):
is pretty high that it'll be a moderate al Nino event,
there's still a bit of a question mark as to
how strong it will be. So there are still a
lot of unknowns about it. But I think if we
just go by history, water conservation, keeping top of mind,
how much water you've got and how much rainfall is
coming up, those are the things that usually affect us
(36:56):
obviously the trying out phase. And there's another positive. At
the moment, we're not really being hit by the windy westerlies,
which is another hallmark of our Nino. So for now
we are still in neutral and there are still some
rainmakers coming in over the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Okay, Philet's given though that the east coasts of both
islands will suffer the most, right.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
Yeah, Usually our Nino produces more haigh pressure around the
Tasman and what that does is produce south to southwesterly
winds and westerly winds over the country. So the West
coast gets very wet, the East coast starts to dry out,
and we are seeing some signs of that at the moment.
But then that's also a normal weather pattern to have
during autumn. So at the moment, yeah, it's hard to
(37:37):
kind of see it developing around us. But I think
in another month we'll start to have a much clearer
picture as to how much this is going to affect us.
But for now, it's still neutral, so that's a good thing.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
At the moment, many of us have got a nice,
big high sitting over the country, fine frosty weather, love
winter or early winter, late autumn or weather like that
will change. So normally around a long weekend a Squeen's
Birthday going to signal the weather God's getting.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
Even at the moment, it looks as though because we
are in this neutral phase, that usually means that you've
got low pressure following high pressure. We've got a lot
of high pressure. It's been very very dry in some
areas over the last several weeks. We do have some
heavy rain coming this week, so the West Coast could
be over a couple hundred millimeters falling there and around
the North Island, the numbers do vary anywhere from just
(38:24):
ten millimeters up to about fifty just depends on where
you are, and the eastern side of the South Island
looks the driest, especially around Otago and up towards parts
of South Canterbury. So at the moment we are seeing
a little bit of wet weather and that will be
followed by more high pressure to finish out the month,
and then going into June we may well kick off
with high pressure followed by yet another low coming in
(38:45):
from the west. So those low pressure zones, they're very,
very welcome at the moment.
Speaker 2 (38:49):
Phil Duncan, usually on a Monday, today, on a Tuesday,
that was worth the white Thanks for your contribution.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
Here we go, Phil Duncan. We're the watch that's great
rural weather forecasting. Going to take a break, come back
with some of your feedback, and I think we've got
a message through about how you might or might not
get to that rural support trust dinner and debate at
Field Days. Okay, wrapping the country. Well, update news for
(39:22):
you at one o'clock. Nichola Willis is just revealing as
we speak, public service cuts in her pre budget speech.
As I was discussing with Shane Jones, and also we've
heard from Mike Green, the man behind the Rural Support
Trust fundraiser. It's actually called the Rural Industry Events or
Leaders Events for the Rural for Rural Support. That's its
(39:44):
correct title is It's going to be a great night out.
The seats all six hundred of them sold within one day.
There is a waiting list, so put your name on
that one. It'll be a cracker of an evening raising
money for the Rural Support Trust at Field Days. We'll
catch it tomorrow. Thanks for listening today.
Speaker 1 (40:06):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mackay. Thanks to a Suzu Get demo
deals on the tough Dmax today
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to a Suzu get demo
deals on the tough Dmax. Today they had.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
A chance chance with.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Someone that you.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Are you gonna freak the grave? Are you somewhere get
a New Zealand Welcome to the Country. The show is
(00:47):
brought to you by Caesar and Farmlands. Shane Jones is
going to kick off the show. The Prince of the Provinces,
The Mighty Marto are self titled. He was in Queenstown
yesterday along with Dave Seymour and Chloe and all sorts
of other people and they were having a big debate
on electrifying New Zealand. And we know that Shane's keenon
(01:09):
digging up fossil fuels and burning them. How did he go?
Was the odd one? Was he the odd one out
in that room? We'll ask him next. We'll also look
at it his hair brain scheme or his boss's hair
brain scheme. And my humble opinion of buying the B
and Z are Cameron Bagri Independent economists. There's a four
point one percent rise in global food prices in the
(01:31):
last two months. Now you'd have to assume a lot
of that is due to the golf crisis the Middle
East War. But what does that mean for New Zealand farmers?
Global bonds are rising, it's keeping the New Zealand dollar
under sixty US cents, which is good for exporters, no
good when you're buying fuel. We've got our own official
(01:51):
cash rate review on May twenty seventh, and should we
be buying the B and Z. Finally, I'm going to
ask him. We've got a lot to get through with Cameron.
What's going to be in the budget for farmers. The
answer will be next to nothing, which is the way
it should be, unlike the old bear and backy budgets
of Rob Muldoon. Doctor Jaquelin Rowath, one of our leading
(02:13):
primary sector academics, is a big event at Field Days.
This is a monster in the very best sense of
the word monster. It's the Rural Rural Support Trust fundraising
debate and dinner held on the Wednesday evening of Field Days.
I think, and I'll check it if it is or not.
(02:33):
I think it's sold out. Plus we're going to have
a look at the link between nitrates and drinking water
and stomach cancer. Is the one. Phil Duncan missed him,
Yes that I'm going to get him today because this
is a really important topic. We are headed apparently for
an impending super al Nino event. How worried should we
(02:55):
be and in what parts of the country should you
be particularly worried. We're going to have bit of a
deep dalve into that with Phil on the show today.
Michelle will wander in here. We'll have a look at
rural news for you and also update sport Change oones,
Next Change oones, amongst other things. He wears many hats
(03:30):
as the Minister of Resources, We're going to talk about
fuel and how much we've got and whether the fuel
crisis is lessening. But talking about fuel change Jones, you
were in Queenstown yesterday at an electrify Queenstown debate. You
would have been the odd man out there, wouldn't you.
Everyone else wants to electrify. You want to dig, baby
(03:53):
dig and burn coal. Ah.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
Yes, I was in Queenstown yesterday and there are a
few in the audience who wanted to electrocute the good
matur because of my views about fossil fuels. But oh look,
I've got to go into the lions Den occasionally full
marks for the people that sponsored the conference, your local
council down there. They promoted the event and quite a
few of the things that were being said, you have
(04:16):
to agree with them, but we cannot completely rule out
coal or gas. Now we had Chippy there, he's a winger,
stands up with his ginger up kind of plaintive voice,
completely overlooking the fact that they've ruined the gas industry.
Gave an ai generated speech, some kind of computer generated narrative,
(04:40):
and then he wouldn't stand up in the debate, and
he got Meghan and she refused to apologize for canceling
the oil and gas industry. But other than that, David
Seymour and I we traded barbes. But that's part of
the humor of the event. And Simeon sat there claiming
unwisely that the fast Track legislation national policy. It wass
(05:01):
Shane and Winston who bought the fast Track into the
coalition agreement. Of course it's so successful in the National
Party and now claiming it there is no place for
magpie behavior in the world of coalition politics.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
Mindje Meghan Woods was blaming you for kicking to touch
like Onslow and I've always struggled with the theory of
using energy to pump water uphell just to catch some
energy on the way down. But apparently it works. Have
we made a mistake there?
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Well?
Speaker 4 (05:33):
No, I'm advisor David Parker and the most famous engineer
in my lifetime as Keith Turner. They are still working
on it, and they're confident that they can fund it
predominantly without a cash injection from the Crown, and if
they're able to find some customers and make it work,
all power to their hand. I think that we do
(05:55):
need to damn another river somewhere. Of course, kiwis on
ever agree. I never agree with that need to accelerate
to your thermil Look, Kiwi's listening to this highly popular program.
If you want energy, we have to expand supply. If
you want affordable energy, we need to cut the gentailors
and in half. And just as we're going to deal
to the calcified attitudes and the oligopolies that comprise the
(06:19):
banking sector, we are going to smash the gentailors in half.
What's what happens on November the ninth.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
I'm going to come back to the banks because I
think you and Winston have got that badly wrong. But
let's just stick with energy. You're the Minister of Resources.
Is the fuel crisis lessening.
Speaker 4 (06:36):
Well, Sadly, prices are spiking, but you know as well
as I do in the OECD ranks and also in
relation to a number of our Southeast Asian neighbors, we
do have the ability to pay. We do not have
the fiscal headroom to continually subsidize gas prices in New Zealand.
(06:59):
Therefore we're going to have to learn to cope with
expanded prices. You and I know that our agricultural sector
is very resilient. Supply is continuing to work as intended
with our statutory obligations that the oil and import companies
have to abide by. But look, no one's exaggerating how
(07:23):
challenging it is made and I do feel for our
productive sector and the household, but we should be very
proud of the fact that our government imposed some obligations
on the fuel imported companies. They wanted a just in
time model. And the only thing that we're battling with
is when Jacinda closed down the Marsenpoint refinery and destroyed
(07:45):
seven hundred and ten million liters of storage capacity. Which
I had to save with the money to recommission one
hundred million liters of additional storage, something that Labor and
Megan refused to do. Didn't find the money. Sadly, the
good matur I was able to do that, and that
will be full of diesel during the course of the
(08:07):
next month.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
That's almost as many letters as trees you wanted to
plant misguidedly.
Speaker 4 (08:13):
Oh look, I'm not. It's not as incapable of learning lessons.
We've moved on from that phase of plot.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Okay, the billion dollar tree man is now history. What
about the public service reform?
Speaker 5 (08:24):
There?
Speaker 2 (08:24):
I see Nikola wants to cut the numbers down. And
I was reading online this morning when Chasinda, when you'll
mate Winston put Jacinda in In twenty seventeen, there was
forty eight thousand in the public sector December of last year.
Last head count that I can see sixty three thousand,
six hundred. Nicola wants to get it down to fifty
(08:45):
five thousand and twenty twenty nine, back to one percent
of the population. What do they all do?
Speaker 4 (08:51):
Well? There is a famous saying. From time to time,
you have to mow the lawn, and if you don't
mow the lawn all sorts of strange weeds Kai Kuia.
You probably don't have that grass down in the South Island.
I don't even know if the farmers so past pellum.
We used to have it as kids on our farm. Yeah,
certain weeds grow and look a bit of mowing now
and again doesn't go astray. But we need to bear
(09:14):
in mind these are fellow keywis we're talking about, and
providing that the positions they occupy have a legitimate role,
then they're safe. If they are filigree and they're not
contributing towards productivity, our finance minister is saying that they
can be rationalized and there'll be space because the private
(09:35):
sector will grow in order to deliver other goods and
services that the public sector can no longer is no
longer needed. I mean I can only look at my
beloved fishing industry and indeed the resource sector. There are
people occupying positions in those areas where perhaps technology and
a more rational approach means that the industry can deliver
(09:57):
them rather than the state. I think that that's an
important debate we need to have. And also, Mate, we've
got to grow the economy. We've got to grow jobs.
We've got to grow exports, and to do that we
need to change the law from time to time encourage investment,
and we're going to have to take risks. You want
to know, one of the reasons why our power prices
(10:19):
are high is because just Simda and Megan canceled at
oil and gas industry. So why don't we expand geo
thermal energy, make certain zones capable of growing energy because
you won't need a resource consent. And also go overseas
and see if the Japanese will come here off the
coast of South Island. Work with the crowd will help
(10:40):
de risk it and actually find some new areas of
oil and gas and restarter o a new industry.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
How are you getting on getting rid of regional councils.
Speaker 4 (10:51):
Well, that work is underway with my colleagues from the
National Party. I mean, obviously I'm not the minister, but
there is no place for these regional cals as is
the example you've referred to down your neck of the
woods and Otiger. I mean Otigo was built on a
gold rush. I just didn't know that a golden like
dome would emerge. In terms of your new regional council
(11:12):
building down there.
Speaker 2 (11:14):
Not to mention the xenram. Rightyo, let's address the elephant
in the room. What the hell I mean you and
Winston put your center in. I'll forgive you for that.
I don't know if I can actually the billion trees.
I don't know if I can forgive you for that either. Shamee.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
But buyingsn't all bad, all bad.
Speaker 2 (11:30):
But buying buying the bing zed What is Winston thinking?
This is just plain politicking.
Speaker 4 (11:37):
The banking sector, the power sector, the supermarket sector represent calcified,
monopolistic gouging, villainous behavior. And what we are in the
business of coming into the new election is disrupting the
status quo. Everyone howls and complains, how much money going overseas,
(12:01):
egregious behavior, punitive amounts of dough we have to pay.
Winston puts up a disruptive idea, and all of you
people race to defend the status quo. All of you
people race to defend these failed models. Good on, Winston
on our behalf putting up us.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
You realize that the B and z's value should I say,
at twenty four billion? That is what we spend currently
on superannuation for a whole year. Wouldn't you be better
if you had to spare twenty four billion dollars Shane Jones,
which you haven't. I don't need to remind you of that.
Wouldn't you be better to chuck that straight into Kiwi
Bank and beef it up. You buy the B and
(12:40):
Z and amalgamate it with Kiwibank. You've only got four
major banks instead of five. Where's the logic in that?
Speaker 4 (12:47):
And don't you agree that? Now we're having the debate
prior to Winston introducing this issue, stirring everyone up, disrupting
the status quo. The cozy club that profit from kiwis
enriches everyone sat back in this air of complacency. That's
what New Zealand First does. We break up the cozy
(13:07):
complacency of the big end of New Zealand's corporate panel.
Mahogany ruined entitlement. No, that's why New Zealand First is
going to be exceedingly well in the new upcoming election.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
I would call it populist nationalistic politics. I'm not a
mile away there either, am I.
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Well, we are popular and we are nationalists. And by
the way, I'm a politician.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Shane Jones, thanks as always for your time on the country.
I appreciate it so buddy. Thank you, Shane. Always entertaining
even if you don't always agree with them. Shane Jones
calling Winston's idea to buy the ben zed a disruptive idea.
Probably was disruptive when the B and Z read about it. Anyhow,
(13:54):
we're going to get an expert in the field, Cameron Bagger,
to comment on that and other things. Four point one
percent and global rise and global food prices in the
last two months, what that means for New Zealand farmers
and what's in the budget for farmers. Here's a farmer
who's texted and said, I take umbrage as every farmer should.
(14:16):
That's your intro statement around around and he quotes me
here there being nothing in the budget for farming and
there shouldn't be. He goes on to write the text,
are not me The food production sector urgently needs more
funding for science gee very importantly the EPA, as we're
being left behind the rest of the world in chemistry
(14:38):
and bioactives. Damien m'connor must have really got on your
air for a vote on Saturday night. Damien was at
the Century Farm and Station Awards. Look, that's a fair point, Texter.
But what I meant you' and probably clumsily delivered it.
I'm going back to the days and I referenced bear
and backy budgets from Rob Bowl doing where there were
(15:00):
straight handouts to the rural sector, the farmers. You don't
need that. You've proved getting through the rogernomics and ever
since then that farmer can stand on its own two feet.
What it needs is a political environment that's conducive to
doing business, just as business needs an environment that's conducive
to doing business. Anyhow, we'll discuss that with Cameron bagriy
(15:25):
up next. We've got our OCR announcement or statement coming
up on May twenty seventh. With all this inflation happening
around the world at the moment, are we in threat
or under threat of an OCR rise as early as
May twenty seven? Cameron will tell us next on the Country,
(15:55):
fling away from the crack doubleway, good black Man, and
twenty four after twelve You're worth the country, Cameron Bagri.
Independent economists, my economists, my favorite economist here on the country.
Always a go to guy, Cameron. Right, let's start with
(16:15):
this four point one percent rise in global food prices
and obviously the resulting inflation around that not good news.
But could it be every cloud having a silver lining?
Could this be good news for New Zealand farmers?
Speaker 5 (16:33):
Well, the potendially, But if you look at where we're
seeing those rises, initially, they're coming through what's what's called oils.
They're not coming through dairy or meat of the state
that those speakers come out of the Food and Agriculture
organizaly And what they illustrate is it the shock that
we're seeing around the globe in the form of an
energy fuel, what we put in the tank of the
(16:53):
card these all that sort of stuff. That's the first
round effect. What we're now starting to see is coming
through that FAO food price measure which is up four
point one percent. Now that's a sign that you fertilize
the prices are moving up. We're starting to see producer
prices that are starting to move up around the globe
and they're going to move into consumer prices. So what
(17:15):
have we seen in the past week, Jamie, A bit
of an inflation jel where US inflation was up, bond
prices or bond yields in the United States are up
as well. Blind prices go up, equity markets tend to
become a little bit more uncertain regard to what's sort
of going on, to a lot more nervous is out
there because of inflation and food price inflation is this
(17:35):
one component of that.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
So global bonds are up. That's not good because yes,
as you say, it lowers the equity markets, which might
not be a bad thing in some markets, but also
increases the likelihood of inflation. But it also keeps our
exchange rate a wee bit lower. And this is obviously
very much a double edged sword for US as an
exporting nation at the moment when we're trying to import
(17:58):
stuff like fuel and fertilizer.
Speaker 5 (18:02):
Yeah, it is. But if I guess, if you have
a step back for a while now, we've been talking
about it, because I've been pointing out that I think
I've thought for a while that the United States has
had a lot more what's good, sticky and undercurrent of
inflation and alarm and behold, headline inflation in the United
States is rocket up wide because of gas prices. But
if we look at the latest reads on core inflation
(18:23):
in the United States, they're up. Doesn't matter where you
look at the consumer price index, doesn't matter where you
look at what's called the private consumption expenditure measure. These
things are trending around three three and a half percent
now they're supposed to be around two percent. So what
we've seen is the market has flipped in the United States.
In the market three to six months ago, we're saying
the US Fed, a reserve that's the central bank, could
(18:46):
be cutting rates. Well, now the market's starting to think
that their central bank, like every other central bank around
the globe, is probably need to be hiking industrates. And
of course if they're hiking in theustrates even though we are,
but the market has repriced them more than us. That
helps keep that New Zealand dollar US dollar, and that
sub sixty cent zone is what we call on that
very export friendly zone. Not great for importers, but a
(19:08):
pretty good number for exporters.
Speaker 2 (19:09):
Could we possibly get a lift in the OCI as
early as May twenty seven.
Speaker 5 (19:15):
I've been on the record as saying, look, if it's
the reserve bank, I'd go early. And the reason I'll
go early, it's the old sort of maximum stitch in
time might save nine. So if you think you need
to have a little bit of work to do, you
better get it in there a little bit early. They're
supposed to go late, because if you go late, you
might have need to go They had a lot more
yet the data at the moment is probably not quite
(19:36):
there for the going may so need to be a
little bit of a leap of faith. But you're stepping back, Jamie.
It doesn't matter with your locket. The United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Europe,
and the United States New Zealand interest rates are moving up.
Why it's not just because global oil prices have moved up.
The most central banks around the globe, they've still got
(19:56):
an undercurrent of sticky core inflation in the two and
a half to three percent three and a half percents
are on the top of that, you've got a bit
of what's good a good shop. So central bank is
going to be a little bit sweaty, a little bit
nervous over the next sort a few months.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
That's funny how you mentioned Australia. We we've always called
it the lucky country. Is it lucky now?
Speaker 5 (20:19):
No? I think I've got a suspicion a few chickens
are going to come under roost. In Australia. The Reserve
Bank of Australia has lifted their cash straight three times
since the start of the year. Why because I've got
core inflation but three three and a half percent. The
headline inflation rate is four point six. Australia has been
(20:40):
suffering for the past couple of years that same old disease.
The New Zeons had by e weak productivity growth and
what's called high unit labor costs. Your unit labor costs
are beaches divided by productivity. The unit labor costs in
Australia are up fifteen percent in the past three years.
Your good luck running a business when you've got that
sort of labor cross pressure you. Meanwhile, the Australian property
(21:03):
market is sort of rocked on over the past sort
of a few years. Australia hasn't had a decent economic shakeout
since about nineteen ninety one nineteen ninety two, hence that
phrase the so called lucky country. The bottom line is,
and we saw this in twenty three, twenty four, twenty
five in New zeone. When you need to break the
(21:24):
back of inflation, you need to Dish had some economic pain,
and I think that economic pain is around the corner
in Australia. Why because they've got an inflation problem and
they've got a reserve bank that's fixated a lot of inflation.
So what's the space. You could see an awful lot
of New Zelanders that have gone to Australia. Side on
the side, I'm coming home.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
I just got my air tute. At the beginning of
the show from a farmer, maybe he had a fair
point about me saying there shouldn't be anything in the
budget for farmers. I was referring to the bear and
backy budgets when there used to be straight out handouts,
but literally the carpetter's bear at Mother Hubbard. There won't
be much in the budget for farmers. All the government
can do is have a conducive environment for farmers to
(22:05):
get on with doing the job.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yeah, well there's that. I had a function and I'm
wanting to that I am. It was a function based
talking about the well Into City Council. Of course, all
these people are saying what's what can well Into the
City Council do to drive regional growth? And my view
of that was that they can take us to the
zero line, and people say, what's the zero line? And
the zero line is that don't screw it up, don't
get in the way, And that's a guess. The way
(22:30):
I think about central government and local government. You've got
a job to do. Do the job. But if we
think that central government and local government is going to
lead the way, then I'm not sure that's you that's
where we're going to be going. You know, then are they?
If you've got your own money in the game, and
by your own money, that's real cash. You need to
(22:51):
take real resk to make real money. And I'm not
convinced that central local government has got the attributes of
in terms have taken real restate real money. Let's take
us to the zero line, do the basis pretty well,
and let the privacy need to take over from there
because we know how to take a manage risk.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Okay, let's just finish on Winston. Is he barking up
the wrong tree or is he just plane barking mad?
Wanting to buy the b n Z. I was reading
another economist, Michael Radell, saying that the Benz's the Z
has valued it twenty four billion, and that's what we spent.
That's what it costs us to fund National super for
one year. Surely we've got better things to spend twenty
(23:30):
four billion on. Even though Winston seems to think he's
going to buy it for seven point five billion, Well.
Speaker 5 (23:36):
Yeah, ben Z, he had actually about one point five billion.
You put a multiple on top of that around fifteen.
They'll probably want more than that than you're talking probably
twenty two to twenty five billion in regard to what
they'll want on the other side. Yeah, so there's no
way that transaction is going to take place. Yeah, So
there's a little bit of political stuff that's going on here,
(23:57):
but you have tip to Winston because what is actually
pointing out is that we've got problems across the bank
sector in New Zealand and regard to competition. What he's
put on the table is of course one of the
sort of solutions that's here Braine, it's not going to
take place. But what he's caught on too, it's the
same with supermarkets, is that we've got an issue here
in regard to what the respective return on equities are
(24:19):
out of those entities compared to what they're getting in
comparative countries such as Australia. So the bigger issue here
is competition. The solution is not buying one of them out.
That's here brain. But what he's identified and caught on
to is that there is a big issue here, So
let's sort this issue out, but through other means.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
Hey, Cameron Bagri, great to chat to you on the country.
Always appreciate your wisdom and input.
Speaker 5 (24:43):
Jeers Amy.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
It's got isn't he? Cameron Bagri? Right? That is twenty
seven away from one. We're going to break and come
back with rural news, sports news before the end of
their Doctor Jack Willnroe with the head of the big
primary sector or the Rural Support Trust, sorry Rural Support
Trust fundraising debate at Field Days. This is the night
to end all nights and Fell Duncan on the Super
al Nino. How worried should you be? Oh, welcome back
(25:17):
to the country. Twenty four away from one. Here's Michelle
with the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (25:22):
The Country's Rural News with cub Cadet. It's one thing
to talk innovation, another to back it up drive it.
We dare you visit steel for dot cot Nz for
your local store.
Speaker 6 (25:33):
Guest Beef and Lamb New Zealand has launched a new
tool to help sheep farmers get more value from their flocks.
Called Improof Tracker, it gives farmers a clearer picture of
flock genetics and how those are tracking over time. Developed
with the Ministry of Primary Industries through the Cool Sheep Program,
it was unvaled this week at the Sheep Breeder Forum.
The tool will also be demonstrated to farmers as the
(25:54):
Outthgate Conference in christ Church this week. Beef and Lamb
New Zealand sees it's part of a Whyer push to
develop deliver practical on farm value to farmers. You can
find more news at the Country dot co dot nz
and don't forget to catch all of the Country shows
and interviews on the Country podcast on iHeart.
Speaker 1 (26:11):
Sport On the Country with AFCO one dred percent key
we owned That's rare.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Golfer Adam Scott's place has been confirmed for the one
hundred and twenty sixth US Open, meaning the forty five
year old Australian is poised to play as one hundredth
straight major. Ryan Fox also earns an exemption as part
of the world's Top sixty New Zealand rugby Bossley Steve
Lancaster has dismissed a suggestion their new partnership with Touch
(26:37):
New Zealand is due to growing fares around the risk
of contact sports. And finally, Game one of the NBA
Western Conference Final between Oklahoma City Thunder and the San
Antonio Spurs is just getting underway, kicked off at twelve
thirty up next to Jacqueline, doctor Jacqueline Roweth, who's far
(26:59):
from an evil warm Her name is doctor Jacqueline Rowe
with Fortnightly. She is kind enough to write a great,
(27:21):
a big beautiful I'm sounding like Trump. Colin Fort on
our website Thecountry dot co dot n zaid, Hey, I've
had Shane Jones Jacqueline on the show today, and my goodness,
he's occasionally followin. I don't agree with everything Shane says,
but what a great orator. Now, I think he might
be one of your draw cards at the Rural Support Trust,
(27:44):
big fundraising event that Mike Green puts on at Field Days.
You're the adjudicator. Have we got Shane confirmed?
Speaker 7 (27:51):
Now? The speakers aren't yet confirmed, but as soon as
they are, there will be a great terrah Because people
have been very interested in the debate following life last
year and indeed the whole auction that goes with it
raising money for the Rural Support Trust. And yes it's
Mike Greene who does all the organization. He's a great
man from darren.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Aki, absolutely brilliant. Last year's surprise package for me, I'll
get onto the topic of the day very shortly, was
Sue's ridmain. I didn't know she was that good on
her feet.
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Well, we had a.
Speaker 7 (28:21):
Great team last year and George Dodson, who was the
Young Farmer of the Year, he was brought in and
indeed Sarah Pirium was there as well, and she was
really last minute type person. But they all took to
heart the instruction to have fun and so that was
absolutely lovely because they did. And George I was the adjudicator.
(28:43):
As you said, I gave him the Best Speaker award
because he actually did what debaters were supposed to do,
which is set the topic and then address it, as
opposed to some people in debate too, great celebrity debaters
who just say what they want to say.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
So your comment about don't.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
I think he might fall under the latter department in here,
Hey and your column, you've referenced T twenty and you
sent me a text this morning ahead of this yarn
about T twenty and I'm thinking, what the hell's Jacqueline
talking about.
Speaker 5 (29:14):
Cricket for not cricket.
Speaker 7 (29:16):
It's the whole leadership expertise thing. So Jenny, congratulations on
your award, your nomination for the one of the primary
industry in New Zealand awards, the communication one. What were
you doing twenty years ago?
Speaker 2 (29:31):
Probably pretty much what I'm doing today.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
So there's the.
Speaker 7 (29:35):
Point about expertise and experience and the leadership work that's
been done by Amander Goodol and Andrew Oswald saying, you know,
if you want a really great coach for a basketball team,
you will find that the research is what that person
was doing twenty years a get go buying basketball at
(29:57):
a high level. We'll give you the clue about his
ability to authors to coach and how quickly it will
make a difference to the team that is coaching. And
this works for universities, hospitals, and they've done the work
on that F one drivers. They're drivers and mechanics. They're
not people with degrees that say I can do this
(30:18):
now and by the way, I've done a couple of
leadership courses, So we need to look at the integrity
in the career path. Really, what were you doing twenty
years ago? What were you doing twenty years before that?
And I'd say for science organizations, we've put them right
in like universities or hospitals. Scientists as well as academics
(30:39):
as well as doctors. They're not driven by money. So
suddenly come in that's been running a business really successfully
and says, so I can run this university. Actually, they're
problem not right because they don't understand the peculiar people
that they're dealing with, because they're motivated by the beauty
of their research, for instance, or the calling for doing
(31:01):
good for people rather than the dollars which are the
common thing in businesses.
Speaker 5 (31:07):
So it's just it's a.
Speaker 7 (31:09):
T minus twenty is a little rule of thumb about
an indication for how good you will be in the future.
And so I'll be doing TEA minus twenty across all
the nominees in the Communication Award and seeing where you sit.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
How come it doesn't work for golf check well onlyhow
let's move on.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
I can't do that.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
A green Peace are about to come out or I
think there's a Danish report linking nitrate and drinking water
to stomach cancer. And you're hot under the collar about
this one.
Speaker 7 (31:40):
Well, it's likely to start inflaming the drinking water issue
on the Canterbury planes again. And I've read the research
and well meaning.
Speaker 3 (31:48):
People they've looked.
Speaker 7 (31:50):
It's like the polar rector cancer paper that are similar.
Some of the overlaps in the authors is twenty seven
years of self reform diet. They've got two hundred and
sixty cases of stomach cancer, and they're saying nitrate and
might try to part of the cause. And though nitrate
(32:11):
from plants is good, nitrate from water isn't. I don't
know how the stomach knows where the sauce is. And
they keep overlooking the fact that the human body to
lets nitrate compounds and recycles them in the saliva. Remember
the bee troat has over eight hundred million of nitrate
(32:32):
in it and you eat it look apparently because it's
good for your heart as well as it can taste
delicious or not, as the case may be. So we
get in a muddle about what we're trying to do here.
So let's reassure everybody doing piece has done the alert,
and I expect the stomach cancer will once so they're getting.
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Ahead of it.
Speaker 7 (32:50):
There are about four hundred diagnoses of stomach cancer in
New Zealand according to the Ministry of Health's website, and
they are really unfortunately smoking that's number one, obesity and
alcohol and sadly three to one Marie Pacific Islander versus
(33:13):
the rest of the population. So I think education about smoking,
obesity and alcohol rather than saying we've got to cut
off all the water supply across New Zealand because there
is no geographical distribution that anybody can see. It's including
Professor Frank Fizzel and any of the cancer research organizations
(33:34):
that says we've got the link with any of these
health problems with where we see higher nitrate in the
drinking water.
Speaker 2 (33:42):
Doctor Jaquelin Roweth, you can read all about it on
our website, The Country dot co dot in Z. Looking
forward to your wonderful performance as adjudicator at the Big
Rural Support Trust debate and dinner on the Wednesday of
Field Days, and to Mike Green and his team. You
do a fantastic job. I think it's sold out but
you might have to google it and find out if
(34:02):
there's a spare seat. If Shane Jones is going to
be there, I'll be there and I will be there,
I think, I mean seeing we're Rowena, So looking forward
to it. See you later, Jacqueline, Yeah, what an event.
Looking forward to that one. I'll let you'll find out
from Mike whether there's any seats left. Right. There's some
feedback from John Hi Jamie. Pumped hydro was normally used
(34:22):
with nuclear power stations as they can't easily be turned down,
so pumping water uses the extra power. Could that be
the Eureka moment? Do we need nuclear power in this country?
Open a can of worms?
Speaker 4 (34:36):
There?
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Up next, Phil Duncan on our Nino, the super al Nino.
Speaker 1 (34:53):
Weather on the country with Fiji, where happiness comes naturally?
Speaker 2 (35:02):
Turn you Mike can't fell Duncan from where the watch
a favorite weather man on a Monday on a Tuesday. Hey, Phil,
this super al Nino of the talk is getting really
serious around this, and I'm old enough to remember as
a kid the drought of seventy two seventy three. Also
we know ninety seven ninety eight was an absolute shocker.
(35:23):
The likes of in places like Marlborough. How concerns should
farmers be in the drier regions of this country for
spring and summer?
Speaker 3 (35:31):
Yeah, gooday, Jamie. I think that water conservation is something
that we probably need to have top of mind going
through the next few months ahead, sort of thinking about
conditions drying out. There are a couple of things though
to focus on. One is that the world is warming,
the sea is warming, the air is warming compared to
those previous al Nino events, and so there is a
(35:52):
little bit of an unknown factor about what that might mean,
and it could mean, you know, maybe we still get
some chance of rain around us. Also, it's worth noting
that al Nino's measured north and northeast of Tahiti quite
a long way away from New Zealand, and so Australia
New Zealand area can be on the edge of it,
which means the Southern Ocean and the Tasman Sea can
still produce rain rain makers. And so when you look
(36:15):
at the next sort of fifteen days where there is
a lot of rain falling north of New Zealand and
west of US and on the West coast as well,
so that bodes well that we're still in neutral. We're
not in Albinho at the moment. It is likely to
happen at some point during our winter, I believe, and
the Australian Bureau of Meteorology they're also saying while confidence
(36:36):
is pretty high that it'll be a moderate al Nino event,
there's still a bit of a question mark as to
how strong it will be. So there are still a
lot of unknowns about it. But I think if we
just go by history, water conservation, keeping top of mind,
how much water you've got and how much rainfall is
coming up, those are the things that usually affect us
(36:56):
obviously the trying out phase. And there's another positive. At
the moment, we're not really being hit by the windy westerlies,
which is another hallmark of our Nino. So for now
we are still in neutral and there are still some
rainmakers coming in over the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Okay, Philet's given though that the east coasts of both
islands will suffer the most, right.
Speaker 3 (37:15):
Yeah, Usually our Nino produces more haigh pressure around the
Tasman and what that does is produce south to southwesterly
winds and westerly winds over the country. So the West
coast gets very wet, the East coast starts to dry out,
and we are seeing some signs of that at the moment.
But then that's also a normal weather pattern to have
during autumn. So at the moment, yeah, it's hard to
(37:37):
kind of see it developing around us. But I think
in another month we'll start to have a much clearer
picture as to how much this is going to affect us.
But for now, it's still neutral, so that's a good thing.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
At the moment, many of us have got a nice,
big high sitting over the country, fine frosty weather, love
winter or early winter, late autumn or weather like that
will change. So normally around a long weekend a Squeen's
Birthday going to signal the weather God's getting.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
Even at the moment, it looks as though because we
are in this neutral phase, that usually means that you've
got low pressure following high pressure. We've got a lot
of high pressure. It's been very very dry in some
areas over the last several weeks. We do have some
heavy rain coming this week, so the West Coast could
be over a couple hundred millimeters falling there and around
the North Island, the numbers do vary anywhere from just
(38:24):
ten millimeters up to about fifty just depends on where
you are, and the eastern side of the South Island
looks the driest, especially around Otago and up towards parts
of South Canterbury. So at the moment we are seeing
a little bit of wet weather and that will be
followed by more high pressure to finish out the month,
and then going into June we may well kick off
with high pressure followed by yet another low coming in
(38:45):
from the west. So those low pressure zones, they're very,
very welcome at the moment.
Speaker 2 (38:49):
Phil Duncan, usually on a Monday, today, on a Tuesday,
that was worth the white Thanks for your contribution.
Speaker 3 (38:54):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (38:55):
Here we go, Phil Duncan. We're the watch that's great
rural weather forecasting. Going to take a break, come back
with some of your feedback, and I think we've got
a message through about how you might or might not
get to that rural support trust dinner and debate at
Field Days. Okay, wrapping the country. Well, update news for
(39:22):
you at one o'clock. Nichola Willis is just revealing as
we speak, public service cuts in her pre budget speech.
As I was discussing with Shane Jones, and also we've
heard from Mike Green, the man behind the Rural Support
Trust fundraiser. It's actually called the Rural Industry Events or
Leaders Events for the Rural for Rural Support. That's its
(39:44):
correct title is It's going to be a great night out.
The seats all six hundred of them sold within one day.
There is a waiting list, so put your name on
that one. It'll be a cracker of an evening raising
money for the Rural Support Trust at Field Days. We'll
catch it tomorrow. Thanks for listening today.
Speaker 1 (40:06):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mackay. Thanks to a Suzu Get demo
deals on the tough Dmax today
Popular Podcasts
Hey Jonas!
Hey Jonas! The official Jonas Brothers podcast. Hosted by Kevin, Joe, and Nick Jonas. It’s the Jonas Brothers you know... musicians, actors, and well, yes, brothers. Now, they’re sharing another side of themselves in the playful, intimate, and irreverent way only they can. Spend time with the Jonas Brothers here and stay a little bit longer for deep conversations like never before.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.