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January 12, 2026 • 15 mins

Welcome to a new podcast brought to you by Property Brokers and powered by The Country. In Episode Three of Land and Lifestyle Property Markets, Jess Davidson reviews 2025 with Property Brokers Rural General Manager Conrad Wilkshire, and discusses what is driving confidence in the rural sector. 

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Wow, Land and lifestyle market insights on the country with
Property Brokers.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
Welcome to Land and Lifestyle market insights brought to you
by Property Brokers. I'm Jess Davidson and we are joined
again by Conrad Wiltshire, General Manager Rural at Property Brokers.
Hi Conrad Hi jest. Now, there's a lot to review
about the season that's been Why does this season stand
out compared with recent years in terms of rural property markets.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Well, I think obviously we're at the halfway markets now
and move into twenty twenty six mode and I think, well,
we can take a lot of lessons out twenty five
because it's the activity we've seen over the spring and
early summer has set new benchmarks and it's been probably
one of the most decisive periods in the rural market
we've seen in recent years. And when I say recent years,

(00:51):
probably ten years plus, and probably it isn't just close strongly,
it's really you know, set a framework for people to
feel more confident.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
So what is driving renewed confidence across the rural sector.

Speaker 3 (01:05):
Well, I know it might sound a bit air for
pie jest, but confidence is actually returning to food production
and if you look at the whole Paris Accord and
what followed on from that, it would almost put it
was never set out to, but what transpired was the
environment and food production we're al was seen as being
in competition with each other, and in fact, actually it's
as symbiotic relationship as you could ever want to envisage.

Speaker 4 (01:28):
But you know that's all got lost in translation, and we're.

Speaker 3 (01:30):
Seeing a real swing back now to confidence and food
production is one of.

Speaker 4 (01:34):
The big ones.

Speaker 3 (01:35):
And you know, then there's the renewed confidence in the
rural sector generally.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
Personally, I find it funny when you think back to
Lockdown Conrad, and you know, we were so proud of
our food production and our farmers out there making things happen,
and it's just so nice to see that being reflected again,
that pride in what we produce.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
Yeah, I think ty Products did pretty well with home
gardens too.

Speaker 4 (01:57):
I think everybody became an expert there. But yeah, no,
no question.

Speaker 3 (02:02):
And I think when we look at the eating, you know,
while there's some eating in the commodity prices just now
maybe giving back some of those more record gains of
the last six months, we are definitely still seeing a
very favorable commodity outlock, and I mean everyone's got so
familiar with these current interstrates now I think people forget that.

(02:24):
You know, just in beer twenty four to twelve months
ago last was you know, you know interest rates where
you know a lot of fixt rates for eight nine percent,
So the savings have been equivalent to the fertilizer bill
a lot.

Speaker 4 (02:38):
For a lot of farmers and growers.

Speaker 3 (02:40):
So for those that had pretty honest mortgages to service,
so you know, these have there have been really significant
pressure points.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
This is great to see that confidence back. So Conrad,
how are recent policy shifts influencing farmer behavior now?

Speaker 3 (02:55):
Well, take a step back, Jess. In my opinion and
having a look at what really impacts the market, there
are two key influences that seem to have the most
impact on the property market. We talk a lot about
farmer confidence, have been pairerds with farmer confidence has been
very low, and we've had strong, strong property sales. And
that really I think I attribute to the fact we've

(03:18):
got an interest rate market and a regtree framework. Those
two factors, well outside the control of anything within the
farm gate, have a huge bearer. You could argue things
like the commodity cycle and exchange rates. Yes, they have
a huge bearing on the profit and loss in any
financial year. But if you actually asking about people pulling
the trigger and having the confidence to take on significant debt.

Speaker 4 (03:43):
Burden, it is it appears that the.

Speaker 3 (03:46):
Cost of finance is a signal and being able to
make a return that beats the cost of borough capital
and the rectory framework and the confidence to invest and
see you way through without being regulated out of existence.
They seem to be the two factors that drive the
actual buyer decisions the hardest.

Speaker 2 (04:06):
And you're quite animated about some of these policy changes.
What's got you fired up? Conrad?

Speaker 3 (04:11):
Well, I think there's always place to be trying to
be measured, but there are some changes that we've seen,
you know. I just refer to the work the Federative
Farmers have been doing off late with this how they
described it as a spiraling consent crisis, And when I
look at the regilary framework farmers have had to operate under,

(04:35):
it has been massive. And while it's abated in recent months,
that sorry, over the last couple of years, you've got
a lot of farms having up till very recently having
to operate under national policy statements and then they have
operated under their local regional authority environmental policy statements and

(04:58):
in many cases particuling the highly productive land you've got
irrigation schemes and the light particularly in the South Island
that we've had their own set of environmental policy requirements
and that has the environmental planning aspect to many of
those businesses has been just exceptionally challenging, and so there's
been a massive one for common sense and we've had

(05:21):
now effectively a moratorium place for two years essentially effective immediately,
where all resource consents will be.

Speaker 4 (05:32):
Rolled over for further two years.

Speaker 3 (05:34):
And then there's a second bill coming through that will
freeze all the consents under the current regional plan and
then at which point farmers have twenty four months to apply.
So in practice for many farmers and grass they won't
need to renew their existing consents from four or five
maybe up.

Speaker 4 (05:51):
To six years.

Speaker 3 (05:52):
So it's sort of what's a framework in place that
they can navigate now to twenty thirty one with confidence
and also just amount of cost involved sure in these things.
And then so there's that one which I think is
significants own right and then you've got the moratorium on
forestry rolling off in terms of the old settings and

(06:13):
moving to the regulated forestry settings for twenty twenty six,
and that's going to be significant as well, where you
know you have to work within the rectory framework for forestry.
So forestryes have sincely gone from unregulated in terms of
passion the forestry conversion to regulated and that's been very
welcomed by many rural communities.

Speaker 4 (06:33):
In the country.

Speaker 2 (06:34):
Yeah, I can see why, And Conrad I wanted to
ask why is the hill country expected to strengthen further
in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 3 (06:42):
Well, I suppose in terms from the property market, the
Royal property market perspective, you've got a much more legal
playing field for hill country farmers now to operate. A
lot of farmers were put off putting an off around
because it was like, well, our offer plus whatever the
farmer was putting up, and they were often missing. In
the health country, particularly breeding country, the families looking to

(07:05):
grow their businesses, we're really sort of up against it.
Whereas now at a much more level playing field, and
there's in a where I think that that in itself is.

Speaker 4 (07:13):
Going to be a.

Speaker 3 (07:14):
Help with the mindset I mean, we actually haven't really
had for the protecting the breeding properties had a full
twelve months under these improve outlook, we're now we are
weaning lambs off mum and getting almost an success two
hundred dollars this time of year. That's that's massive and

(07:35):
so again none of that has really been that was
in the case this time last year. So I think
with some of those profits in the bank and the
interest rate outlook and a regulary framework that's on a
more equal footing, I think you know then, yeah, we
see that has been really helpful to health country.

Speaker 2 (07:53):
Yeah, it's just brilliant. So Conrad, what does regional, national,
and international demand look like in practice?

Speaker 3 (08:00):
From an international perspective, our dairy systems are seen as
world class, and that's not just the beef productions, but
from we are a major player on the world stage
in terms of export dairy production. So I definitely think
we're going to see as strong demand internationally for a

(08:22):
number of had larger dairy assets, and that's already been
demonstrated recently with a recent favorable decision from the OIO
in favor of a large scale a dairy business. Sultan
and International Fund Management business, so we will, I think,
see some of that. But equally, what we've noticed is
that nationally we've got really strong groven operators with really

(08:48):
well capitalized balance sheets able to step up and operate
on target properties up and down the country. And some
of those actually family control businesses, and some of them
are genuine, true corporate every businesses. And then you have regionally,
some very strong businesses that can often pick up maybe
not quite a whole portfolio farms, but quite happen to

(09:09):
pick up one, two, maybe three farms and actually and
bring that along. And the international investment, by the way,
can still operate on a minority interest basis, and we're
starting to see some of those transactions present as well.
So I think across the board we've got a regional, national,
and to a lesser degree, but equally important, on the

(09:29):
large end of the business, international markets by interest operating.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
In recent episodes, we've talked about, you know that the
gut feeling at times that people feel about international investment
in our properties, but we've discussed that it is a
positive thing. You need strength across the board, don't you.

Speaker 3 (09:47):
You do, But I think the key thing is it's
the minority of transactions and it's at the level and
scale that is most family businesses would never contemplate. And
then I think the most compelling reason though from the
New Zealand interest point of view, is the improvements that
are made. It would be typically quite challenging for the

(10:08):
next door able to have a crack at and emulate,
so you know, what they what they bring is a
real The business case is all around productivity, capital investment
upfront and for the investment mandate they often need to
and as part of the consent anyway, deploy a lot
of the capital upfront and make significant improvements.

Speaker 4 (10:31):
For the property.

Speaker 3 (10:31):
And there's a lot of you know, it hasn't been
an easy period this last fifteen twenty years, and there's
a lot of citular scale dear systems that would benefit
from a new rotary shared or moving to you know,
full pivot that type of thing. I guess there isn't
a lot of downside. Then the asset doesn't actually leave
New Zealand, and I think the biggest country to bit

(10:51):
of belief is the fact that these assets often return
to the market and so inside a decade and much
better shape them when they took them over.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
Yeah, absolutely. And in terms of this South Otago dairy transaction,
why was that so significant in this market?

Speaker 4 (11:05):
Well, we just haven't had one before.

Speaker 3 (11:07):
We haven't had since twenty seventeen, we hadn't had a
large scale dairy system sold to a direct foreign investor.
I think that's a significant aspect of it. It was
a quality farm, but there's an opportunity to leverage the
water rights and also improve the productivity and build on

(11:28):
what was already a very good business. I think the
interesting thing about that transaction too is that it's going
to be leased and that the DC is a New
Zealand company with a great train record in the industry,
and you know, so it's not The assets are going
to be managed within the New Zealand business model and
the profits obviously will be shared between the operating business

(11:52):
and the landowning business. So I think it's a good
model for the future.

Speaker 2 (11:56):
Yeah, very much so. And Conrad, why a large scale
farming portfolios coming to the market now.

Speaker 3 (12:02):
When you look at it as all the facts we've
been talking about jests in recent months, is that there's
just that confidence and belief that there's the buyer demand
and there's the confidence in the dairy outlook, and the
dairy outlook is more balanced, so that's where the larger
assets tend to sit.

Speaker 4 (12:22):
I still think we.

Speaker 3 (12:23):
Have some large transactions in the market to come forward
around the sheep beef sector, but a lot of that
sometimes is tied to aesthetics and issues like the significant
landscapes that they represent, et cetera. That's often driven then

(12:44):
the buying in the past. But there are some really
good businesses out there with vertically integrated supply chains, and
I think those sort of businesses will be of interest
to the international market as well. But again I keep
reinforcing it's the exception and the great majority of all
transactions we get.

Speaker 4 (13:02):
Involved with, ninety nine percent of them are sort of
with them. The new Zealand framework.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
Well, twenty twenty six that looks set to be another
fascinating one. Twenty twenty five was busy enough for you,
wasn't it.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
Yes, it was.

Speaker 3 (13:15):
Now we're looking forward to this year busy for the
right reasons too. And we've been still seeing and I
think for listeners out there, we are still putting people
into their first farms.

Speaker 2 (13:25):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (13:27):
And actually we're.

Speaker 3 (13:28):
Finding it easier to get bank support and historically. We've
been doing that for a little while. We've had this
Footprint into Land initiative. It's been running for over five
years now and through that program we've introduced buyers and
vendors and got people talking and have helped BacT to
the catalyst to make these transactions work. What's interesting now

(13:49):
it's not the vendor having to be the bank actually there.
We're finding that we are getting banking support and we
are in the areas that I think you can buy
in at at really good levels, particularly Southland Eastland and
if you like some of their locations that are really good.

(14:12):
We've got great souls, but they might just be a
little bit further out from town. Or those who want
to have a crack and are prepared to be mobile.
And I think that's one of the difference from maybe
twenty years ago is for those young couples want to
have a crack at their fresh farm, as they're prepared,
maybe look outside the region and be hosted by one
of the team and get out there.

Speaker 4 (14:32):
And have a look around. You'd be amazed at just
what the opportunities are.

Speaker 3 (14:36):
But sometimes you have to go outside the backyard.

Speaker 2 (14:39):
Love that thinking. Hey, Conrad Thank you so much for
your insight. As always, it's been a pleasure and we'll
catch up again soon. Thanks Yes, Conrad Wiltshire, General Manager
Rural at Property Brokers. To find out more, visit property
Brokers dot co, dot Inside, Forward, Slash Land and Lifestyle

Speaker 1 (14:57):
Land and Lifestyle market insights on the country with Propherty
Brokers
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