April 9, 2026 • 24 mins
Cyclone Vaianu is currently tracking toward the top of the North Island with forecasters warning it could make landfall between Auckland and the Coromandel this weekend.
Heavy rain, high winds and coastal surges are all in play, with officials stating it could be a potentially life-threatening weather event.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has recommended people stock up and get their supplies in order.
Today on The Front Page, meteorologist for Earth Sciences NZ, Chester Lampkin is with us to give us an idea on just how bad things could get and how prepared we should be.
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You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Kyoda. I'm Richard Martin and for Chelsea Daniels, and this
is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the
New Zealand Herald. Cyclone Vyana is currently tracking toward the
top of the North Island, with forecasters warning it could
make landfall between Auckland and the Corimandal this weekend. Heavy rain,
(00:27):
high winds, and coastal surges are all in play, with
official stating it could be a potentially life threatening weather event. Meanwhile,
Prime Minister Christopher Luxen has recommended people stock up and
get their supplies in order. So how bad could this get? Today?
On the front Page, Meteorologist for Earth Sciences New Zealand,
Chester Lampkin is with us to let us know what
(00:49):
these cyclone categories really mean and how prepared we should be.
All right, so, Chess at the time of recording, cyclone
Fly on the is a category two cyclone. What exactly
does that mean?
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, you know, I think I want to start off
by saying thanks for having me on the show, you know,
first time on the show. But I do want to say,
you know, it's it's not I don't want to spend
too much time discussing categories because I think sometimes we
can get lost in the fact that category one, category
five tropical cyclone doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
They can be quite impactful.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
And so with that said, sure category two doesn't mean
it's severe, it's a strong storm, certainly has strong wins.
You can always get the latest, you know, from the
met Service. They've got all the latest details and there
will be a new update after we've recorded this podcast
around midday, so they'll have the latest data. But essentially
what people need to know is that this is going
(01:49):
to be a strong, generally impactful storm. It's not likely
to be a tropical cyclone when it arrives here in
New Zealand on the weekend late Saturday night Sunday day.
But either way, the impacts are going to be the
most important thing. That heavy rain, the wind, and the
beach and coastal erosion that we're going to be watching.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Yes, we won't spend too much time on it. But
like the it was initially regarded as a category three
Slocklanne when it came through. So what is the category
measuring if not you know, the impact.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah, generally it's just a measurement of how strong the
winds are. And I don't have the category numbers off
the top of my head, but the idea is that
the stronger the wind gusts, the higher the category of
the storm.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
There's a direct.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Correlation between the strength of the wind and the energy
that the storm is producing and the damage that it
could cause. So the most severe categories three, four, five,
those types of storms, when they make landfall in the
tropics or have impacts on the tropics, they tend to
be the most devastating. The good thing is we've seen
(03:00):
that weakening. You mentioned that it was a category three.
It's down to a category two as of this recording.
By the time we get to this time tomorrow, it's
not even likely to have a category at that point anymore.
It's just probably going to be a cyclone because it's
going to transition from a tropical cyclone. It's driving its
energy from the warm ocean water. Well, it's moving out
(03:21):
of that now, it's moving towards the mid latitudes, where
we have and where we are here in New Zealand And,
so it's no longer going to be classified as tropical. However, again,
it'll have impacts that'll be akin to a tropical cyclone.
So you can say maybe the energy you will be
akin to a category one category two tropical cyclone, but
it will not be a tropical cyclone. So the category
(03:44):
is sort of you know, there's this misconception within the
public like the category, this category that essentially they don't
have much meaning when it comes to the amount of
damage that can be done. You can have a week
or a category one cyclone, and if it hits in
the right place it's a highly populated area, or an
area with a lot of mountains, or a place that's
already had a lot of rain and then you put
(04:05):
additional rain, that category one can be just as devastating
as a category four, category five.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Yeah, I'm interested to learn more about these misconceptions around Yeah,
that had the category lights because as you just saying,
it can still be you know, quite devastating even if
it's not actually a category to it.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
And you know, I'm not a social scientist, you know,
I've just you know, read through some of the literature
and we do have social scientists that work here at
ESNZ that study these types of things around the meteorological world.
Really everywhere this is being studied. The sort of the
psychology of how information is digested and how that's communicated
to the public. So, you know, I think when I
was growing up, when I was young, we would get
(04:44):
focused on the category of a hurricane.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
When I lived in the States, that's where.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
I'm originally from, we'd be worried about a category five
or category four, which is a really strong hurricane. But
we've seen hurricanes since then, in cyclone since then, tropical
cyclones since then that were weak that have had bigger impacts.
So the idea of getting caught up in a label
or a number, we're trying to move away from that
(05:10):
in meteorology. It's great for science, it's great for geeking out,
it's great for being able to put things into nice
fit categories for scientific purposes. But when it comes to
the human element, we know that we are impacted in
different ways that can't always be put into a number category.
So you know, as I said before, category one, category five.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
If category five.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Means nothing, if it makes no landfall anywhere, right, but
a category one you'll remember that storm if it blew
your house down, or if it destroys your neighborhood, or
if you know someone who unfortunately loses their life in
that storm, and I think that's where the science is
trying to move to when communicating how dangerous these.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Storms can be.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Easily this could be one of the worst storms we've
seen in years. It could also be a storm that
no one will remember in a year.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
It's it could be. It can be in that range.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
And I do want to say that, like the category
number again, it's one of those things where it's like, yeah,
you know, how important is it?
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Right? It's not very important?
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Yeah, I mean it makes for a good headline, I
think is part of the thing to just give it
a number, But things of that totally. We see a
lot of these cyclone warnings come through, it feels like
all the time, and you know, increasingly so with you know,
climate change and the way these major weather events are
getting more and more frequent. But yeah, how seriously should
(06:36):
we be taking this one on a scale of you know,
light drizzle over the weekend too, something like cyclone Gabrielle.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Certainly certainly needs to be taken seriously, I would say.
And it's hard to argue this just because it's it's
almost like fatigue. We're getting hit by so many this
summer alone, We've been hit by multiple xtcs or formal
tropical cyclones or or subtropical lows I have you put it.
We've been hit by multiple storms. It seems like about
one a month. We had one around the school I
(07:05):
mean the holidays December New Year period. We had the
January storm, We had the February storm around Valentine's Day.
Just a few weeks ago in March, we had another
storm that had significant impacts to the country. But I
would say out of the storms we've seen so far
this summer, this is certainly going to be one of
the more serious ones, and that's primarily because of where
(07:27):
it is going to impact the country. It is currently
forecast to make landfall somewhere the North Island, could be
as far west as Eastern Northland, or as far east
as perhaps even northern Gisborne East Cape region, somewhere in
that region. But right now, the current forecast from our
friends over at the Metzer's our colleagues there, current forecast
is for it to make landfall somewhere near the Cormando.
(07:48):
The idea is that this is a highly populated area,
especially here the North Island, But in addition to that,
it is a place that has already seen rain. We've
had some heavy rainfall over the last week, so the
soil in the ground is a bit saturated, it's a
bit primed. We've had a lot of rain over the
last few weeks. As a result of that, the ground
(08:09):
is not going to be able to hold as much water.
So more than likely flooding slips will be a concern.
The beach erosion will be a concern because of the
strong winds with this system and the wind, I don't
want to dismiss that as well. Our friends over the
Met Service they issued a wind watch that covers the
entire North Island yesterday. That was what's today Thursday, so
(08:31):
that was on Wednesday days in advance. I think that
that points to how serious this situation could be as
far as wind impacts.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
And I know they've put out some heavy rain watches as.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Well, So yeah, certainly I would say top to serious
situation of the of the summer so far or summer autumn,
I should say, the tropical season.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
Now we've issued a strong wind watch the tie in
North Island from one am Sunday. If this cyclone continues
to track the way it's indicating, we could see damaging
potentially life threatening winds. This watch is a nod to
the expected wide ranging impacts we could see. Because we're
still four days out from Vayanu's arrival, we still have
(09:18):
uncertainty and the cyclone's exact track and the exact location
set to receive the most severe winds. We will see
other watches issued to heavy rain and strong winds, large swells,
and we will see regions upgraded to orange even possibly
red warnings.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
That the wind warning that came out so far in advance,
how rare is that to do it for not only
a few days in advance, but also covering such a
wide area.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Sure, And I'm not one hundred percent sure how rare
it is, just because I've just recently returned to New Zealand.
I worked at the Met Service for a couple of years.
About ten years ago, lift came back and now I'm
working for YESNZ.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
But I do know that it is. It is pretty rare,
and I'm not entirely sure if they've ever issued a
wind watch this far in advance, covering such a large
part of the country, And I think that speaks to
forecast confidence. I think that speaks to the seriousness of
the potential impacts, and the fact that whether forecasts are
(10:20):
getting better, it's getting better at pinpointing where situations like
this are going to arise days in advance. We're not
always going to be able to tell you three four
days in advance that, yeah, we're worried about when this widespread.
But we certainly had some good indications even going back
as far as a week with this system.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Well, what's making it easier, what's making these predictions able
to happen?
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Now?
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Sure, sure, I think it's a lot of things. One
is certainly an experience, especially this summer we've experienced, the
summer and fall we've experienced autumn. I should say we've
experienced a lot of xtcs unfortunately. And that's like to
take a sid side journey if you will. I know
Chris Brandolino usually on the podcast with you guys, he
(11:05):
likes to go to these little side journeys and metaphors.
He'll sprinkle in some science, which I appreciate. I love
that you know, this is reflective. I think partially of
that La Nina that we are just coming out of
as well, which tends to allow more tropical intrusions of
air to come southward from the tropics. So we've had
a lot of that this summer, and we've seen these
(11:25):
heavy rain events as a result in high wind events
as a result of the tropics being so active. Tropics
are very active right now, and so we've experienced it
enough times this summer to know that this is likely
to happen. But in addition to that, forecasts are getting
better because.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
We are doing more research.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
We are we have local scientists researching how to make
weather predictions better here in New Zealand here in out
there Row. We are also getting more and better weather data.
We have, you know, high resolution modeling. We have called
ensemble models that basically you take the model and you
(12:03):
run it multiple times in different what we call perturbation.
So it's essentially the same model, but you can split
it up into eighteen versions of the model that you
could say, hey, in these eighteen versions, half the models
are putting down two hundred millimeters in Fithianga with this storm.
So we're able to use that information to make better
(12:24):
weather forecasts.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
And we are striving. We continue to strive.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
To get better and better and use the latest technology,
these high computing computer clusters that we have and HPCs
and all you know, and now AI driven models like
all of this is feeding into the forecasting b Sally
to call it, and that allows us to make these
improved forecasts. And again we're always going to get some
(12:50):
elements wrong, but there's going to be improvements overall. We're
starting to get better at looking farther into the future,
being able to predict impacts more precisely as well.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Yeah, so are we able to know precisely what's your
best estimate for a time that we should really be
on the lookout show?
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Certainly we'll have to watch for impacts, maybe starting as
soon as Saturday. I know some of the watches have
been posted from our friends over the met Service. They
begin Saturday evening, So depending on your location, places like Northland,
perhaps Auckland, the Cormandol will start to see some impacts
(13:32):
as soon as Saturday evening Saturday night, with more widespread
impacts across the rest of the North Island during the
day on Sunday. And the current forecast seems to be
pointing at this cyclone which we'll be moving into New
Zealand sometime in that Sunday perhaps morning mid daytime period,
perhaps early as late as early afternoon.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
So Sunday, I think is the big day.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
You want to get your prep done now, Today, Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
those are the days you want to prep. You want
to run out to the to the local warehouse and
get the supplies you need, make sure your backup batteries
are charged, and make sure that you have your plans
for emergencies, phones are charged, backup chargers, food supplies, and
(14:18):
I don't think it's going to be extreme to the
point where you know, widespread areas will be losing power
for days at a time, but there's that possibility that
there could be power cuts and there could be places
that are cut off. We saw that in Gabrielle. We
saw that with cyclones earlier this summer. There are places
that may get cut off for hours, if not potentially
days because of slips and damage to the roads and
(14:40):
other types of flood issues. In addition to the power
cuts and the wind knocking down trees causing damage and
you know, just causing mayhem across parts.
Speaker 5 (14:49):
Of New Zealand, this is shaping to be very significant
in damaging whether of e and I just think obviously
with a big impact on North Island, particularly around Sunday,
and it's a great opportunity to remind New Zealanders to
do everything they can to stock up or get their
(15:10):
supplies in order get items that may be loose in
their backyards are tied down or insecure as storage. The
agencies are on full notice and are preparing for it.
I know it'll be unwelcome news for many communities that
have recently been affected by severe weather events and are
still recovering frankly, but it's important that we use the
time that we've got to make sure that people are
(15:30):
prepared as much as possible at their homes and their households.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Yes, I think you've done a good job of illustrating
the sort of things we should be doing to prepare.
And Christopher Luxen has said that you know, it's time
to stock up and get your supplies ready, but like,
are there things that you'd want to advise against people doing.
You know, is this like time to rush the supermarkets
and buy it all the toilet paper?
Speaker 2 (15:56):
I would never encourage that for that pretty sure, as
someone who's lived through, you know, a variety of natural
disasters in different parts of the world. I remember, you know,
I lived in Wellington during the kai Quota earthquake.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
So, you know, I.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Remember those days, and I remember COVID, you know, and
how everyone rushed out and brought toilet paper. This is
certainly not that, but it's good to take those measured approaches.
Make sure that you do have something that you can eat,
and you have those supplies that you need for at
least a few days within the house, and make sure
(16:33):
that you have something that people in your.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Household will actually enjoy.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Yeah, you can have can this and can that, and
stuff that you can't you have to make on a
fire or wood burning stove or something like that. But
it's also a good idea to have some extra snacks
that will make you feel comforting in case you do
lose power for a couple of days. You know, I,
as a parent, I think about that. I want to
make sure that my kids have what they need to
be able to feel comforted in case there is an emergency.
(17:02):
So make sure your iPads and your tablets are charged
up and you have a game for them to play,
and you have flashlights and things that you can do
with the family and the kids and your loved ones,
so that if you do lose power for a couple
of days. It's not the end of the world, you know, Well,
she'll be all right, right, We'll get through this. It's
just all about being prepared ahead of time.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
What would be your message to people in Auckland that
woke up this morning and the sun was shining, you know,
after a few days of being overcast, and you know,
coming to work this morning, I was like, oh, I guess.
Part of me was like, I guess the cyclone isn't.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Happening, right exactly.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Yeah, don't be fooled by this sunshine if you will,
that's for sure.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
You know.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Even I was taken aback and how beautiful it was
this morning. I live in the Auckland region as well,
and on my way into work, I was just like, well,
this is a delightful day. I wish I could take
this and just copy and paste it through the weekend
and forget about this cyclone. But this is the time,
This is the time where you need to prepare. So yeah,
enjoy the weather, enjoy getting outside. I know a lot
of New Zealand is seeing generally fine weather today. Not
(18:06):
as nice out towards the Bay of Plenty, in places
east where it's a little rainy still but up here
in the far North there, so I'd like to joke
with my friends who live in Wellington, the tropical North,
we're definitely having a beautiful series of weather here ahead
of the cyclone.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
So still just be prepared.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
This is the time to make your grocery run. Don't rush,
don't run, get there, get the supplies you need. It's
not going to be a situation where you're going to be,
you know, out of sorts.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
For days and days and days.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
But certainly it's good to be stocked up and have
your sort of backup plans ready to go. Check on
the loved ones. If you have a friend. I have
a friend who lives over in the Bay of Plenty.
You know, I checked in with them to make sure
that they were prepared, you know, things like that. It's
a good idea to do those things now so that
you're not ky out a little bit later this weekend.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Yeah, I mean, should people just be staying at home
on Sunday?
Speaker 2 (19:00):
I think it depends on where you are, you know.
For anyone who may be listening from the South Island,
you know not likely to see impacts, and even the
Lower North Island there isn't going to be a lot
of impacts, so there will be some stronger winds. I
think for a lot of the country you can go
about your business. But if you live in in the
places where the warnings are likely to be issued, and
some of these warnings could end up being red warnings
(19:21):
according to the met Service, places like Auckland, Cormandel, certainly Northland,
Bay of Plenty, especially Bay of Plenty Cormando. I think
those areas really need to be mindful and watchful of
this system, and northern Gisburne as well. Those areas, those
are the places where you may want to alter your plans.
If you have a trip plan, maybe you cut that
(19:43):
trip a day or two early. If you plan on
flying out of Auckland on Sunday, maybe if you can
try to swing that Saturday flight or push it back
to Monday. Things like that, little things you can do
now to save yourself headaches later. Certainly a great idea totally.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
And I guess what's the what's the biggest threat we're
looking at here? Is it the wind? Does it the rain?
The coastal erosion?
Speaker 2 (20:11):
I think it's a combo threat. I think it's a
combo of the wind and rain we're going to This
is going to be quite a windy system and I
know that. I believe the met Service had some mention
of potential gus exceeding one hundred ten kilometers per hour.
That's severe gus here in New Zealand. For most of
the most regions of New Zealand, that'd be pretty severe.
(20:32):
So I think in a combination with that and the
fact that we're going to have an unusual wind direction,
the winds are going to be coming out of the east,
southeast and then the east to start off with this storm,
especially for Bay of Planning, Gisburn, perhaps the Cormando as well.
These areas will see east and north southeasterly winds. That's
an unusual wind direction for New Zealand, and so the
(20:54):
trees are more used to westerly. So I think soggy
ground trees that are getting hit with strong gusts from
an unusual direction that could lead to a lot more
tree damage, trees falling, and these east facing slopes again
are probably going to get batter these east facing slopes
in the area, mountains and ranges, foothills. So again, these
(21:16):
places with heavy rain and the gusty winds. It's a
combination for slips and widespread power cuts as well. Some
of those power cuts may just last hour, some of
the may last days. But the idea is that these
are the types of impacts that we're concerned about across
the North Island, especially the Upper North Island. Beach erosion
is certainly going to be a concern. I think there's
(21:38):
still some question as to how much how high the
wave action going to be is going to be, but
I've seen some text and some forecast state of pointing
to seven to eight meter waves and that certainly is
going to lead to some coastal inundation, storm surge, and
the potential for some beach erosion, especially where you're getting
that on shore flow. So seeing beaches especially going to
(22:03):
be quite a concern across the Upper North Island.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
Saturday night Sunday.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
Yeah, Well, you've done a great job of, i think,
informing us and letting us all know what to expect.
But one thing that I just want to ask before
you got that I've always been a little bit curious about,
is what's the vibe like in the Science's office right
now when something like this comes along. Is this like,
(22:28):
you know, this is like this is Guton for you guys, right.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Oh for sure, yeah, this is This is probably when
we reach our busiest when we have big storms impacting
the country. We're a small team over here at ESNZ.
We have a lot more researchers than we do operational
forecaster forecasters, which is what I am and what Chris
Brandolino is and the other members of my team. We're
(22:53):
the ones who are actually making weather forecast for our researchers.
They do amazing work, but you know, on a day
like this, when they're prepared, when we're preparing for the
big storm, they just do their jobs as usual. It's
a usual day for them. They're getting ready to do
you know, they're doing their projects and their work. But
for us forecasters, this is the time where it's go time,
where we're working long days, where we're talking to you
(23:15):
on the media, where we're talking to you know, FENS
or DOC or other organizations throughout New Zealand and getting
them prepared so that when the big storm does hit,
they're ready to respond. They're prepared for the potential damage
and the potential impacts. And it's exciting, but at the
(23:36):
same time, it's it's also a stressful time. It's not
a positive excitement, if you will. It's a time where
it's like, hey, we got to get this done right.
We want to keep people safe. And I think that's
true of anybody who works in the forecast realm. Like
I said, I worked in met service before, so I
know that those ladies and gentlemen are doing the same thing.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
They are in go mode right now.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
Well tell me, well, it sounds like I've got to
let you go. Then, thanks so.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Much for joining me. Yeah, I appreciate it. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at inzidherld dot co dot inzid. This episode of the
Front Page was hosted, produced, and edited by me Richard
Martin Kane Dicky is our studio operator, and our executive
producer is Jane Ye. Follow the Front Page on the
(24:26):
iheartapp or wherever you get your podcasts, and join us
next time for another look beyond the headlines.
Kyoda. I'm Richard Martin and for Chelsea Daniels, and this
is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by the
New Zealand Herald. Cyclone Vyana is currently tracking toward the
top of the North Island, with forecasters warning it could
make landfall between Auckland and the Corimandal this weekend. Heavy rain,
(00:27):
high winds, and coastal surges are all in play, with
official stating it could be a potentially life threatening weather event. Meanwhile,
Prime Minister Christopher Luxen has recommended people stock up and
get their supplies in order. So how bad could this get? Today?
On the front Page, Meteorologist for Earth Sciences New Zealand,
Chester Lampkin is with us to let us know what
(00:49):
these cyclone categories really mean and how prepared we should be.
All right, so, Chess at the time of recording, cyclone
Fly on the is a category two cyclone. What exactly
does that mean?
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Well, you know, I think I want to start off
by saying thanks for having me on the show, you know,
first time on the show. But I do want to say,
you know, it's it's not I don't want to spend
too much time discussing categories because I think sometimes we
can get lost in the fact that category one, category
five tropical cyclone doesn't matter.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
They can be quite impactful.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
And so with that said, sure category two doesn't mean
it's severe, it's a strong storm, certainly has strong wins.
You can always get the latest, you know, from the
met Service. They've got all the latest details and there
will be a new update after we've recorded this podcast
around midday, so they'll have the latest data. But essentially
what people need to know is that this is going
(01:49):
to be a strong, generally impactful storm. It's not likely
to be a tropical cyclone when it arrives here in
New Zealand on the weekend late Saturday night Sunday day.
But either way, the impacts are going to be the
most important thing. That heavy rain, the wind, and the
beach and coastal erosion that we're going to be watching.
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Yes, we won't spend too much time on it. But
like the it was initially regarded as a category three
Slocklanne when it came through. So what is the category
measuring if not you know, the impact.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
Yeah, generally it's just a measurement of how strong the
winds are. And I don't have the category numbers off
the top of my head, but the idea is that
the stronger the wind gusts, the higher the category of
the storm.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
There's a direct.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Correlation between the strength of the wind and the energy
that the storm is producing and the damage that it
could cause. So the most severe categories three, four, five,
those types of storms, when they make landfall in the
tropics or have impacts on the tropics, they tend to
be the most devastating. The good thing is we've seen
(03:00):
that weakening. You mentioned that it was a category three.
It's down to a category two as of this recording.
By the time we get to this time tomorrow, it's
not even likely to have a category at that point anymore.
It's just probably going to be a cyclone because it's
going to transition from a tropical cyclone. It's driving its
energy from the warm ocean water. Well, it's moving out
(03:21):
of that now, it's moving towards the mid latitudes, where
we have and where we are here in New Zealand And,
so it's no longer going to be classified as tropical. However, again,
it'll have impacts that'll be akin to a tropical cyclone.
So you can say maybe the energy you will be
akin to a category one category two tropical cyclone, but
it will not be a tropical cyclone. So the category
(03:44):
is sort of you know, there's this misconception within the
public like the category, this category that essentially they don't
have much meaning when it comes to the amount of
damage that can be done. You can have a week
or a category one cyclone, and if it hits in
the right place it's a highly populated area, or an
area with a lot of mountains, or a place that's
already had a lot of rain and then you put
(04:05):
additional rain, that category one can be just as devastating
as a category four, category five.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Yeah, I'm interested to learn more about these misconceptions around Yeah,
that had the category lights because as you just saying,
it can still be you know, quite devastating even if
it's not actually a category to it.
Speaker 3 (04:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
And you know, I'm not a social scientist, you know,
I've just you know, read through some of the literature
and we do have social scientists that work here at
ESNZ that study these types of things around the meteorological world.
Really everywhere this is being studied. The sort of the
psychology of how information is digested and how that's communicated
to the public. So, you know, I think when I
was growing up, when I was young, we would get
(04:44):
focused on the category of a hurricane.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
When I lived in the States, that's where.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
I'm originally from, we'd be worried about a category five
or category four, which is a really strong hurricane. But
we've seen hurricanes since then, in cyclone since then, tropical
cyclones since then that were weak that have had bigger impacts.
So the idea of getting caught up in a label
or a number, we're trying to move away from that
(05:10):
in meteorology. It's great for science, it's great for geeking out,
it's great for being able to put things into nice
fit categories for scientific purposes. But when it comes to
the human element, we know that we are impacted in
different ways that can't always be put into a number category.
So you know, as I said before, category one, category five.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
If category five.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Means nothing, if it makes no landfall anywhere, right, but
a category one you'll remember that storm if it blew
your house down, or if it destroys your neighborhood, or
if you know someone who unfortunately loses their life in
that storm, and I think that's where the science is
trying to move to when communicating how dangerous these.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Storms can be.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Easily this could be one of the worst storms we've
seen in years. It could also be a storm that
no one will remember in a year.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
It's it could be. It can be in that range.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
And I do want to say that, like the category
number again, it's one of those things where it's like, yeah,
you know, how important is it?
Speaker 3 (06:11):
Right? It's not very important?
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Yeah, I mean it makes for a good headline, I
think is part of the thing to just give it
a number, But things of that totally. We see a
lot of these cyclone warnings come through, it feels like
all the time, and you know, increasingly so with you know,
climate change and the way these major weather events are
getting more and more frequent. But yeah, how seriously should
(06:36):
we be taking this one on a scale of you know,
light drizzle over the weekend too, something like cyclone Gabrielle.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Certainly certainly needs to be taken seriously, I would say.
And it's hard to argue this just because it's it's
almost like fatigue. We're getting hit by so many this
summer alone, We've been hit by multiple xtcs or formal
tropical cyclones or or subtropical lows I have you put it.
We've been hit by multiple storms. It seems like about
one a month. We had one around the school I
(07:05):
mean the holidays December New Year period. We had the
January storm, We had the February storm around Valentine's Day.
Just a few weeks ago in March, we had another
storm that had significant impacts to the country. But I
would say out of the storms we've seen so far
this summer, this is certainly going to be one of
the more serious ones, and that's primarily because of where
(07:27):
it is going to impact the country. It is currently
forecast to make landfall somewhere the North Island, could be
as far west as Eastern Northland, or as far east
as perhaps even northern Gisborne East Cape region, somewhere in
that region. But right now, the current forecast from our
friends over at the Metzer's our colleagues there, current forecast
is for it to make landfall somewhere near the Cormando.
(07:48):
The idea is that this is a highly populated area,
especially here the North Island, But in addition to that,
it is a place that has already seen rain. We've
had some heavy rainfall over the last week, so the
soil in the ground is a bit saturated, it's a
bit primed. We've had a lot of rain over the
last few weeks. As a result of that, the ground
(08:09):
is not going to be able to hold as much water.
So more than likely flooding slips will be a concern.
The beach erosion will be a concern because of the
strong winds with this system and the wind, I don't
want to dismiss that as well. Our friends over the
Met Service they issued a wind watch that covers the
entire North Island yesterday. That was what's today Thursday, so
(08:31):
that was on Wednesday days in advance. I think that
that points to how serious this situation could be as
far as wind impacts.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
And I know they've put out some heavy rain watches as.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Well, So yeah, certainly I would say top to serious
situation of the of the summer so far or summer autumn,
I should say, the tropical season.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
Now we've issued a strong wind watch the tie in
North Island from one am Sunday. If this cyclone continues
to track the way it's indicating, we could see damaging
potentially life threatening winds. This watch is a nod to
the expected wide ranging impacts we could see. Because we're
still four days out from Vayanu's arrival, we still have
(09:18):
uncertainty and the cyclone's exact track and the exact location
set to receive the most severe winds. We will see
other watches issued to heavy rain and strong winds, large swells,
and we will see regions upgraded to orange even possibly
red warnings.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
That the wind warning that came out so far in advance,
how rare is that to do it for not only
a few days in advance, but also covering such a
wide area.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Sure, And I'm not one hundred percent sure how rare
it is, just because I've just recently returned to New Zealand.
I worked at the Met Service for a couple of years.
About ten years ago, lift came back and now I'm
working for YESNZ.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
But I do know that it is. It is pretty rare,
and I'm not entirely sure if they've ever issued a
wind watch this far in advance, covering such a large
part of the country, And I think that speaks to
forecast confidence. I think that speaks to the seriousness of
the potential impacts, and the fact that whether forecasts are
(10:20):
getting better, it's getting better at pinpointing where situations like
this are going to arise days in advance. We're not
always going to be able to tell you three four
days in advance that, yeah, we're worried about when this widespread.
But we certainly had some good indications even going back
as far as a week with this system.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Well, what's making it easier, what's making these predictions able
to happen?
Speaker 3 (10:43):
Now?
Speaker 2 (10:44):
Sure, sure, I think it's a lot of things. One
is certainly an experience, especially this summer we've experienced, the
summer and fall we've experienced autumn. I should say we've
experienced a lot of xtcs unfortunately. And that's like to
take a sid side journey if you will. I know
Chris Brandolino usually on the podcast with you guys, he
(11:05):
likes to go to these little side journeys and metaphors.
He'll sprinkle in some science, which I appreciate. I love
that you know, this is reflective. I think partially of
that La Nina that we are just coming out of
as well, which tends to allow more tropical intrusions of
air to come southward from the tropics. So we've had
a lot of that this summer, and we've seen these
(11:25):
heavy rain events as a result in high wind events
as a result of the tropics being so active. Tropics
are very active right now, and so we've experienced it
enough times this summer to know that this is likely
to happen. But in addition to that, forecasts are getting
better because.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
We are doing more research.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
We are we have local scientists researching how to make
weather predictions better here in New Zealand here in out
there Row. We are also getting more and better weather data.
We have, you know, high resolution modeling. We have called
ensemble models that basically you take the model and you
(12:03):
run it multiple times in different what we call perturbation.
So it's essentially the same model, but you can split
it up into eighteen versions of the model that you
could say, hey, in these eighteen versions, half the models
are putting down two hundred millimeters in Fithianga with this storm.
So we're able to use that information to make better
(12:24):
weather forecasts.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
And we are striving. We continue to strive.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
To get better and better and use the latest technology,
these high computing computer clusters that we have and HPCs
and all you know, and now AI driven models like
all of this is feeding into the forecasting b Sally
to call it, and that allows us to make these
improved forecasts. And again we're always going to get some
(12:50):
elements wrong, but there's going to be improvements overall. We're
starting to get better at looking farther into the future,
being able to predict impacts more precisely as well.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Yeah, so are we able to know precisely what's your
best estimate for a time that we should really be
on the lookout show?
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Certainly we'll have to watch for impacts, maybe starting as
soon as Saturday. I know some of the watches have
been posted from our friends over the met Service. They
begin Saturday evening, So depending on your location, places like Northland,
perhaps Auckland, the Cormandol will start to see some impacts
(13:32):
as soon as Saturday evening Saturday night, with more widespread
impacts across the rest of the North Island during the
day on Sunday. And the current forecast seems to be
pointing at this cyclone which we'll be moving into New
Zealand sometime in that Sunday perhaps morning mid daytime period,
perhaps early as late as early afternoon.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
So Sunday, I think is the big day.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
You want to get your prep done now, Today, Thursday, Friday, Saturday,
those are the days you want to prep. You want
to run out to the to the local warehouse and
get the supplies you need, make sure your backup batteries
are charged, and make sure that you have your plans
for emergencies, phones are charged, backup chargers, food supplies, and
(14:18):
I don't think it's going to be extreme to the
point where you know, widespread areas will be losing power
for days at a time, but there's that possibility that
there could be power cuts and there could be places
that are cut off. We saw that in Gabrielle. We
saw that with cyclones earlier this summer. There are places
that may get cut off for hours, if not potentially
days because of slips and damage to the roads and
(14:40):
other types of flood issues. In addition to the power
cuts and the wind knocking down trees causing damage and
you know, just causing mayhem across parts.
Speaker 5 (14:49):
Of New Zealand, this is shaping to be very significant
in damaging whether of e and I just think obviously
with a big impact on North Island, particularly around Sunday,
and it's a great opportunity to remind New Zealanders to
do everything they can to stock up or get their
(15:10):
supplies in order get items that may be loose in
their backyards are tied down or insecure as storage. The
agencies are on full notice and are preparing for it.
I know it'll be unwelcome news for many communities that
have recently been affected by severe weather events and are
still recovering frankly, but it's important that we use the
time that we've got to make sure that people are
(15:30):
prepared as much as possible at their homes and their households.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Yes, I think you've done a good job of illustrating
the sort of things we should be doing to prepare.
And Christopher Luxen has said that you know, it's time
to stock up and get your supplies ready, but like,
are there things that you'd want to advise against people doing.
You know, is this like time to rush the supermarkets
and buy it all the toilet paper?
Speaker 2 (15:56):
I would never encourage that for that pretty sure, as
someone who's lived through, you know, a variety of natural
disasters in different parts of the world. I remember, you know,
I lived in Wellington during the kai Quota earthquake.
Speaker 3 (16:10):
So, you know, I.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
Remember those days, and I remember COVID, you know, and
how everyone rushed out and brought toilet paper. This is
certainly not that, but it's good to take those measured approaches.
Make sure that you do have something that you can eat,
and you have those supplies that you need for at
least a few days within the house, and make sure
(16:33):
that you have something that people in your.
Speaker 3 (16:36):
Household will actually enjoy.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
Yeah, you can have can this and can that, and
stuff that you can't you have to make on a
fire or wood burning stove or something like that. But
it's also a good idea to have some extra snacks
that will make you feel comforting in case you do
lose power for a couple of days. You know, I,
as a parent, I think about that. I want to
make sure that my kids have what they need to
be able to feel comforted in case there is an emergency.
(17:02):
So make sure your iPads and your tablets are charged
up and you have a game for them to play,
and you have flashlights and things that you can do
with the family and the kids and your loved ones,
so that if you do lose power for a couple
of days. It's not the end of the world, you know, Well,
she'll be all right, right, We'll get through this. It's
just all about being prepared ahead of time.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
What would be your message to people in Auckland that
woke up this morning and the sun was shining, you know,
after a few days of being overcast, and you know,
coming to work this morning, I was like, oh, I guess.
Part of me was like, I guess the cyclone isn't.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
Happening, right exactly.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Yeah, don't be fooled by this sunshine if you will,
that's for sure.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
You know.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
Even I was taken aback and how beautiful it was
this morning. I live in the Auckland region as well,
and on my way into work, I was just like, well,
this is a delightful day. I wish I could take
this and just copy and paste it through the weekend
and forget about this cyclone. But this is the time,
This is the time where you need to prepare. So yeah,
enjoy the weather, enjoy getting outside. I know a lot
of New Zealand is seeing generally fine weather today. Not
(18:06):
as nice out towards the Bay of Plenty, in places
east where it's a little rainy still but up here
in the far North there, so I'd like to joke
with my friends who live in Wellington, the tropical North,
we're definitely having a beautiful series of weather here ahead
of the cyclone.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
So still just be prepared.
Speaker 2 (18:23):
This is the time to make your grocery run. Don't rush,
don't run, get there, get the supplies you need. It's
not going to be a situation where you're going to be,
you know, out of sorts.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
For days and days and days.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
But certainly it's good to be stocked up and have
your sort of backup plans ready to go. Check on
the loved ones. If you have a friend. I have
a friend who lives over in the Bay of Plenty.
You know, I checked in with them to make sure
that they were prepared, you know, things like that. It's
a good idea to do those things now so that
you're not ky out a little bit later this weekend.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Yeah, I mean, should people just be staying at home
on Sunday?
Speaker 2 (19:00):
I think it depends on where you are, you know.
For anyone who may be listening from the South Island,
you know not likely to see impacts, and even the
Lower North Island there isn't going to be a lot
of impacts, so there will be some stronger winds. I
think for a lot of the country you can go
about your business. But if you live in in the
places where the warnings are likely to be issued, and
some of these warnings could end up being red warnings
(19:21):
according to the met Service, places like Auckland, Cormandel, certainly Northland,
Bay of Plenty, especially Bay of Plenty Cormando. I think
those areas really need to be mindful and watchful of
this system, and northern Gisburne as well. Those areas, those
are the places where you may want to alter your plans.
If you have a trip plan, maybe you cut that
(19:43):
trip a day or two early. If you plan on
flying out of Auckland on Sunday, maybe if you can
try to swing that Saturday flight or push it back
to Monday. Things like that, little things you can do
now to save yourself headaches later. Certainly a great idea totally.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
And I guess what's the what's the biggest threat we're
looking at here? Is it the wind? Does it the rain?
The coastal erosion?
Speaker 2 (20:11):
I think it's a combo threat. I think it's a
combo of the wind and rain we're going to This
is going to be quite a windy system and I
know that. I believe the met Service had some mention
of potential gus exceeding one hundred ten kilometers per hour.
That's severe gus here in New Zealand. For most of
the most regions of New Zealand, that'd be pretty severe.
(20:32):
So I think in a combination with that and the
fact that we're going to have an unusual wind direction,
the winds are going to be coming out of the east,
southeast and then the east to start off with this storm,
especially for Bay of Planning, Gisburn, perhaps the Cormando as well.
These areas will see east and north southeasterly winds. That's
an unusual wind direction for New Zealand, and so the
(20:54):
trees are more used to westerly. So I think soggy
ground trees that are getting hit with strong gusts from
an unusual direction that could lead to a lot more
tree damage, trees falling, and these east facing slopes again
are probably going to get batter these east facing slopes
in the area, mountains and ranges, foothills. So again, these
(21:16):
places with heavy rain and the gusty winds. It's a
combination for slips and widespread power cuts as well. Some
of those power cuts may just last hour, some of
the may last days. But the idea is that these
are the types of impacts that we're concerned about across
the North Island, especially the Upper North Island. Beach erosion
is certainly going to be a concern. I think there's
(21:38):
still some question as to how much how high the
wave action going to be is going to be, but
I've seen some text and some forecast state of pointing
to seven to eight meter waves and that certainly is
going to lead to some coastal inundation, storm surge, and
the potential for some beach erosion, especially where you're getting
that on shore flow. So seeing beaches especially going to
(22:03):
be quite a concern across the Upper North Island.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
Saturday night Sunday.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
Yeah, Well, you've done a great job of, i think,
informing us and letting us all know what to expect.
But one thing that I just want to ask before
you got that I've always been a little bit curious about,
is what's the vibe like in the Science's office right
now when something like this comes along. Is this like,
(22:28):
you know, this is like this is Guton for you guys, right.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Oh for sure, yeah, this is This is probably when
we reach our busiest when we have big storms impacting
the country. We're a small team over here at ESNZ.
We have a lot more researchers than we do operational
forecaster forecasters, which is what I am and what Chris
Brandolino is and the other members of my team. We're
(22:53):
the ones who are actually making weather forecast for our researchers.
They do amazing work, but you know, on a day
like this, when they're prepared, when we're preparing for the
big storm, they just do their jobs as usual. It's
a usual day for them. They're getting ready to do
you know, they're doing their projects and their work. But
for us forecasters, this is the time where it's go time,
where we're working long days, where we're talking to you
(23:15):
on the media, where we're talking to you know, FENS
or DOC or other organizations throughout New Zealand and getting
them prepared so that when the big storm does hit,
they're ready to respond. They're prepared for the potential damage
and the potential impacts. And it's exciting, but at the
(23:36):
same time, it's it's also a stressful time. It's not
a positive excitement, if you will. It's a time where
it's like, hey, we got to get this done right.
We want to keep people safe. And I think that's
true of anybody who works in the forecast realm. Like
I said, I worked in met service before, so I
know that those ladies and gentlemen are doing the same thing.
Speaker 3 (23:54):
They are in go mode right now.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
Well tell me, well, it sounds like I've got to
let you go. Then, thanks so.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Much for joining me. Yeah, I appreciate it. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (24:05):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at inzidherld dot co dot inzid. This episode of the
Front Page was hosted, produced, and edited by me Richard
Martin Kane Dicky is our studio operator, and our executive
producer is Jane Ye. Follow the Front Page on the
(24:26):
iheartapp or wherever you get your podcasts, and join us
next time for another look beyond the headlines.
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