January 21, 2025 • 17 mins
After 15 months and the deaths of around 47,000 Palestinians, the war between Israel and Hamas has ended – for now.
A six-week ceasefire has begun in Gaza, after agreements were reached for the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners and aid.
The start of the agreement coincides with Donald Trump returning to the White House, with the US President taking credit for the deal – though so did his predecessor, Joe Biden.
So, what will happen next in Gaza, and what does Trump’s comeback mean for other world issues?
Today on The Front Page, University of Waikato Professor of Law, Alexander Gillespie, joins us to discuss the long-awaited ceasefire and what’s next in world politics.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Georgina Campbell
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Kilda. I'm Georgina Campbell in for Chalsea Daniels and this
is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The
New Zealand Herald. After fifteen months and the deaths of
around forty seven thousand Palestinians, the war between Israel and
Timas has ended for now. A six week ceasefire has
(00:27):
begun in Gaza after agreements were reached for the release
of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners and aid.
The start of the agreement coincides with Donald Trump returning
to the White House, with the US President taking credit
for the deal, though so did his predecessor Joe Biden.
So what will happen next in Gaza and what does
(00:50):
Trump's come back mean for other world issues? Today on
the Front Page, University of waikutl Professor of Law Alexander
Gillespie joins us to discuss the long awaited ceasefire and
what's next in world politics.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Ol.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
The ceasefire in Gaza has been a long time coming.
What exactly does the deal entail?
Speaker 3 (01:17):
It's a deal which has a sequence of steps and
each step will take good faith, so before you move
to the next one. But in principle. It's about the
release of the hostages in a phased way and an
exchange of Palestinian prisoners and a withdrawal of Israeli troops
from some of the territory.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
And it's only for six weeks currently. Do you think
it will continue after that point?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Both scients need to show good faith and that will
make so that there's no trickery involved and that they
can build some trust and ability to rely on the
word of each other, and that the deal progresses as planned.
If there's a breach of good faith, then the whole
thing could fall over quite quickly.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
How difficult is that for them to be able to,
you know, have faith in each other's word given the
history here.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
The history is difficult because until recently it's been a
very difficult conflict, and there's been what I would consider
to be crimes committed or potential crimes and practices which
are at times not good, and they have undermined the relationship.
And you need to have a relationship with your opposition
(02:33):
even in times of conflict, so that you can start
to move forward and build peace. But right through to
the use of targeted killing or assassinations of leaders of
the various groups. Even though that may or may not
have been justified. It undermines the ability of science to
talk to each other. But they are now at a
point where there's so much pressure to make a deal
(02:56):
that they've both advanced at the right time, and thankfully
we've got to a point where the killing will at
least stop and hopefully we can get some of these
hostages bank and start to move forward.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Israel has freed ninety Palestinian prisoners as part of its
ceasefire deal with Hamas. Early on Monday morning, several buses
carrying the detainees left the gates of Israel's a Fair
prison just outside the West Bank city of Ramala. Hundreds
of people gathered to celebrate the release, with several climbing
on the top of one of the buses. The freed
(03:31):
prisoners are said to be women and teenage boys from
the West Bank and Jerusalem. They're the first of nineteen
hundred Palestinians Israel is set to release in exchange for
thirty three Israeli hostages in phase one of the deal.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
I have other countries been keeping an eye on the steal,
helping this deal come to fruition and also making sure
that it is seen through.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
These a large number of countries that are involved in it,
and even countries where it hasn't always been people involved
in power, like with the United States. The fingerprints of
the now the new president, mister Trump, are already on
this process. Qatar has been the major intermediary, but other
countries in the region are also involved. One of the
(04:19):
key things to look for is whether you can have
a neutral group like the Red Cross involved in the exchanges,
because sometimes if you've got a neutral group like the
Red Cross or the Red Crescent, it takes some of
the heat out of the negotiations and the handing over
of the people.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
And there have been other tensions in the Middle East
over the last year and a half, noticeably between Israel
and Hezbulla and the Hirsty rebels. Do you think that
this ceasefire will bring some peace back to the region.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
I think there's a very large difference between the words
ceasefire and peace because we're not at the point of
peace agreements, which is what we should be aiming for.
But if you actually look at the conflict and around
Israel and in the occupied territories, that these go back
to the late nineteen forties, and it's possible to see
this is just the latest in a long sequence of
(05:11):
terrible conflicts. To actually get to peace would require considerations
about the formation of a Palestinian state and security guarantees
for Israel so it could feel that its own people
were safe from external threats. Those kind of peace agreements
that you would need to have with the Palestinians. You
would also need to reboot for the region so that
(05:32):
you could include it with Yemen, you could include it
with Syria, and in an ideal world, well, it's a
very long way away, you could include it with Iran.
But right now we're only at the first step of
a very long process where we've stopped the immediate, inhumane
and wrongful situations of the conflict. This is only the
first stage of the ceasefire, and the harder part is
(05:55):
when you go to the rebuilding of Gaza and whether
you go to questions of autonomy that autonomy looks like,
and this involves questions of whether Hamas remains in power,
whether you have peacekeepers of foreign nations in the region,
or whether you actually move towards sovereignty of the Palestinian
people and the sovereignty question is the big one because
it's not just the West Bank, it's also Gaza, and
(06:17):
so there's difficult negotiation ahead. But the other thing you
need to keep in consideration is whether there will be
accountability for the alleged war crimes committed by all science
in this conflict. And the risk is that sometimes people
are so keen to get an end to the killing
that they allow impunity to prevail because they don't want
(06:37):
to hold these people to account, because if you hold
them to account, it means that you can't stop the
shooting on the ground in the immediate future.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Now, after so much pain, destruction, loss of life, today
the guns in Gaza have gone silent. This was the
deal that I outlined for the world back in May
thirty first, many of who covered it at the time.
I was endorsed overwhelmingly by folks around the world, including
the UN Security councilor and nanimously endorsed the deal and
(07:08):
developed a coordination with I developed in coordination with Egypt,
CODA and Israel. I've worked in foreign policy for decades.
This is one of the toughest negotiations I've been part of,
and the.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Deal was made while the Biden administration was still in office,
but I've seen that Donald Trump sent an advisor to
Israel as well to make it clear to Benjamin Netanya,
who that the incoming president wanted a deal reached. Why
do you think Trump was so keen on getting a
ceasefire and will he be taking credit for this going
(07:45):
into office.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
I think everyone wants to cease fire, and it just
depends upon what terms that you get that cease fire.
Mister Biden tried very hard to get it, but he
was also very strong in his support for Israel and
mister net in particular. I imagine that that support will be
deepened even further under mister Trump. It wasn't ever a
question of America not being behind Israel. It's a question
(08:07):
of how far they're behind Israel. And I think mister
Trump will accelerate that support. He's likely to be pushing
for a number of regional initiatives, like he started out
what was known as the Abraham Accords with his first presidency,
where he tried to normalize the relationships with a number
of Israel's neighbors. Best case scenario, you can now continue
that and start to move towards those peace agreements we
(08:29):
were talking about earlier, and so although it's possible to
be pessimistic, it's also possible to be optimistic and that
there is a chance now to really reset the agenda,
especially because, as you've mentioned, with the heathy and with
his BLA and with Iran, the Israeli military has clearly
got the upper hand, and so the opposition is much
more fragmented and defeated than it has been for quite
(08:50):
some time. Not completely defeated by any means, but there
is a chance for something new, and in the best
case scenario, mister Trump will help reach towards them.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Let's talk more about Trump, who has officially returned to office,
vowing to be a peacemaker and unifier on the world stage.
He has also made repeater claims about season control of Greenland,
the Panama Canal, and potentially even Canada. What do you
make of those claims that he's made.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Some very entertaining rhetoric. I don't think he's seriously intending
to acquire by force Greenland, Panama or Canada, but I
think it's the way of upping the antis to make
negotiations a little bit more pointed so that he can
renegotiate the deals that he wants. The broader issue you
have is that mister Trump is not so aligned to
(09:51):
an international rule based order as his predecessors, so he's
willing to make deals to get the goals that he wants.
Sometimes deals at other p may not have.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Made Argentina's Heavier Melee and Italy's Georgia Maloney were in
attendance that Trump's inauguration, both known for the far right views.
What does that say about the types of leaders Trump
is aligning himself with.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
I think you can see the pendulum of politics within
democracies is swinging towards the right at the moment. I
think this pendulum will swing back in time, but right
now the momentum is clearly towards the right and in
places the far right, although I'd be carefully around that terminology.
And mister Trump has picked up on this and he
is just the most obvious manifestation of this change. But
(10:37):
it's one that will have a lot of implications in
international policy, because whether you're talking about trade or security
or even the environment, that the need for a roles
based order is critical, but some of these governments are
willing to step out of the norms that were built
up over the last few decades.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
What's behind that swing to the right.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
Well, first off, you have to respect it because these
people come up through democracies and they represent one political viewpoint,
and the main thing is that the democracy continues even
if you disagree with who's in charge. I think you've
got to look at each issue in turn, whether it's security,
or whether it's trade, or whether it's the environment. But
sometimes the difference between the far left and the far
(11:17):
right of international stage is not that great, and so
like if you look at the issue of security, people
on the far right and often on the left are
both saying you need to do more in terms of
the amount of money that you spend, the upgrades that
are required in the alliances that are necessary to protect
your country. Where you may find more pressure, like if
(11:38):
you run with that example with mister Trump as of
the instance, So countries need to spend more on their
military and if you're a member of NATO, the target
is two percent of your GDP. I think mister Biden
was willing to turn a blind eye to countries which
didn't make that target in the past, like Canada and
like New Zealand. I think in the future you will
find more pressure on countries like Canada, in like New Zealand,
(12:01):
even though we're not a member of NATO, to increase
our spend on security. He will expect other countries to
do more in terms of the heavy lifting that America
has previously done, and if you are a friend, you
will be required to meet certain baseline expectations.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
I think what is interesting is that this year that's
just gone by, twenty twenty four was the year in
which more people voted than at any time ever in
human history, and one of the themes that was consistent
around the world was it was almost impossible for a
party to stay in power. It didn't matter whether you
were left or right. Voters felt that they're not being
well served by the people who they put into office.
(12:43):
So some of it, I think is about the bigger
picture about what's actually going on. Is it that people
don't like Trudeau? Is it that people don't like the
right the left? Is it populism? And I guess one
of the things that's really important is that we're living
in an age of revolutions.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Where does this leave more liberal governments? You know, like
we've already seen Canada's Justin Trudeau resign. What happens to
them in this context.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
Well, again, it's reached democracy to decide what kind of
government that they want. But historically the pendulum goes one way,
then it goes the other way. But you are seeing
a dissatisfaction with a number of policies in a large
number of countries. And that's not just in America or
(13:31):
in parts of Europe. You can also see it in
our own country. And you have seen some radical politics
which previous generations had stayed away from, and so often
the consensus based approach of foreign policy, of domestic policy
on certain issues like indigenous frights, there was kind of
an agreed common path. But now a lot of those
debates are up for discussion.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
And Donald Trump has been leveling all sorts of tariff threats.
Do you think we're going to see a bit of
a trade war emerge?
Speaker 3 (14:02):
To me, the way I see mister Trump is manifest
uncertainty in the way that the international world will respond.
But I don't see mister Trump is working in a
bilateral way where it's going to be like New Zealand
has to be particularly concerned about the United states, although
we must be to me, it's going to be more
like a game of billions, whereby there's going to be
dozens of countries trying to scramble for position, trying to
(14:24):
work out their relationship with mister Trump, and we will
get caught up in those blood falls bouncing around the table,
and so it will become difficult. Like if you take
one issue like said the Ukraine, and mister Trump says,
when America decides We're no longer going to fund the
defense of the Ukraine, but the Europeans say, well, we
are going to continue to fund the defense of the Ukraine.
(14:45):
Then for a country like New Zealand, we're going to
have to say, well, do we go with the Europeans
or do we go with mister Trump.
Speaker 6 (14:54):
I returned to the presidentcy confidence and optimistic that we
are at the start of the a thrilling new era
of national success. A tide of change is sweeping the
country's sunlight is pouring over the entire world, and America
has the chance to seize this opportunity like never before.
(15:15):
But first we must be honest about the challenges we face.
While there are plentiful, they will be annihilated by this
great momentum that the world is now witnessing in the
United States of America.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
And finally, as difficult as it can be to make
predictions with Trump, what do you think will happen in
terms of global politics over the next four years with
Trump at the helm in the US?
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Well, with mister Trump, it's really what's the next four days,
because things move so quickly. He's promised that within twenty
four hours he would bring a peace to the Ukraine.
He's already got his fingerprints over the hostage deal. He's
gone to have to reevaluate the situation with China, and
that we'll involve Taiwan, and of course there's for larger
relationship with Russia. And so I will take the optimistic
(16:06):
view and that he is going to try to have
a presidency very similar to what Ronald Reagan had with
his second term, and he saw an opportunity to reach
for agreements which are on everyone's best interests, like arms
control and agreement around certain chor issues that cannot be
solved unilaterally. And he has an energy and hopefully that
can be used for good. The challenge we have is
(16:29):
when agreements are proposed and like it sounds great that
you will have peace in the Ukraine within twenty four hours,
But the challenge is what are the terms of that agreement?
And the risk is that the terms of that agreement
undermine the international rules based order. So you can get
short term agreements which look great, but the longer term
consequences can be damaging if not well managed.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Thanks for joining us, al, You're welcome. That's it for
this episode of the Front Page. You can read more
about today's stories and extensive news coverage at ziherld dot
co dot MZED. The Front Page is produced by Ethan
Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer.
(17:13):
I'm Georgena Campbell. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio
or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow
for another look behind the headlines.
Kilda. I'm Georgina Campbell in for Chalsea Daniels and this
is the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by The
New Zealand Herald. After fifteen months and the deaths of
around forty seven thousand Palestinians, the war between Israel and
Timas has ended for now. A six week ceasefire has
(00:27):
begun in Gaza after agreements were reached for the release
of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners and aid.
The start of the agreement coincides with Donald Trump returning
to the White House, with the US President taking credit
for the deal, though so did his predecessor Joe Biden.
So what will happen next in Gaza and what does
(00:50):
Trump's come back mean for other world issues? Today on
the Front Page, University of waikutl Professor of Law Alexander
Gillespie joins us to discuss the long awaited ceasefire and
what's next in world politics.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
Ol.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
The ceasefire in Gaza has been a long time coming.
What exactly does the deal entail?
Speaker 3 (01:17):
It's a deal which has a sequence of steps and
each step will take good faith, so before you move
to the next one. But in principle. It's about the
release of the hostages in a phased way and an
exchange of Palestinian prisoners and a withdrawal of Israeli troops
from some of the territory.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
And it's only for six weeks currently. Do you think
it will continue after that point?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Both scients need to show good faith and that will
make so that there's no trickery involved and that they
can build some trust and ability to rely on the
word of each other, and that the deal progresses as planned.
If there's a breach of good faith, then the whole
thing could fall over quite quickly.
Speaker 1 (02:03):
How difficult is that for them to be able to,
you know, have faith in each other's word given the
history here.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
The history is difficult because until recently it's been a
very difficult conflict, and there's been what I would consider
to be crimes committed or potential crimes and practices which
are at times not good, and they have undermined the relationship.
And you need to have a relationship with your opposition
(02:33):
even in times of conflict, so that you can start
to move forward and build peace. But right through to
the use of targeted killing or assassinations of leaders of
the various groups. Even though that may or may not
have been justified. It undermines the ability of science to
talk to each other. But they are now at a
point where there's so much pressure to make a deal
(02:56):
that they've both advanced at the right time, and thankfully
we've got to a point where the killing will at
least stop and hopefully we can get some of these
hostages bank and start to move forward.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Israel has freed ninety Palestinian prisoners as part of its
ceasefire deal with Hamas. Early on Monday morning, several buses
carrying the detainees left the gates of Israel's a Fair
prison just outside the West Bank city of Ramala. Hundreds
of people gathered to celebrate the release, with several climbing
on the top of one of the buses. The freed
(03:31):
prisoners are said to be women and teenage boys from
the West Bank and Jerusalem. They're the first of nineteen
hundred Palestinians Israel is set to release in exchange for
thirty three Israeli hostages in phase one of the deal.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
I have other countries been keeping an eye on the steal,
helping this deal come to fruition and also making sure
that it is seen through.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
These a large number of countries that are involved in it,
and even countries where it hasn't always been people involved
in power, like with the United States. The fingerprints of
the now the new president, mister Trump, are already on
this process. Qatar has been the major intermediary, but other
countries in the region are also involved. One of the
(04:19):
key things to look for is whether you can have
a neutral group like the Red Cross involved in the exchanges,
because sometimes if you've got a neutral group like the
Red Cross or the Red Crescent, it takes some of
the heat out of the negotiations and the handing over
of the people.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
And there have been other tensions in the Middle East
over the last year and a half, noticeably between Israel
and Hezbulla and the Hirsty rebels. Do you think that
this ceasefire will bring some peace back to the region.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
I think there's a very large difference between the words
ceasefire and peace because we're not at the point of
peace agreements, which is what we should be aiming for.
But if you actually look at the conflict and around
Israel and in the occupied territories, that these go back
to the late nineteen forties, and it's possible to see
this is just the latest in a long sequence of
(05:11):
terrible conflicts. To actually get to peace would require considerations
about the formation of a Palestinian state and security guarantees
for Israel so it could feel that its own people
were safe from external threats. Those kind of peace agreements
that you would need to have with the Palestinians. You
would also need to reboot for the region so that
(05:32):
you could include it with Yemen, you could include it
with Syria, and in an ideal world, well, it's a
very long way away, you could include it with Iran.
But right now we're only at the first step of
a very long process where we've stopped the immediate, inhumane
and wrongful situations of the conflict. This is only the
first stage of the ceasefire, and the harder part is
(05:55):
when you go to the rebuilding of Gaza and whether
you go to questions of autonomy that autonomy looks like,
and this involves questions of whether Hamas remains in power,
whether you have peacekeepers of foreign nations in the region,
or whether you actually move towards sovereignty of the Palestinian
people and the sovereignty question is the big one because
it's not just the West Bank, it's also Gaza, and
(06:17):
so there's difficult negotiation ahead. But the other thing you
need to keep in consideration is whether there will be
accountability for the alleged war crimes committed by all science
in this conflict. And the risk is that sometimes people
are so keen to get an end to the killing
that they allow impunity to prevail because they don't want
(06:37):
to hold these people to account, because if you hold
them to account, it means that you can't stop the
shooting on the ground in the immediate future.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Now, after so much pain, destruction, loss of life, today
the guns in Gaza have gone silent. This was the
deal that I outlined for the world back in May
thirty first, many of who covered it at the time.
I was endorsed overwhelmingly by folks around the world, including
the UN Security councilor and nanimously endorsed the deal and
(07:08):
developed a coordination with I developed in coordination with Egypt,
CODA and Israel. I've worked in foreign policy for decades.
This is one of the toughest negotiations I've been part of,
and the.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Deal was made while the Biden administration was still in office,
but I've seen that Donald Trump sent an advisor to
Israel as well to make it clear to Benjamin Netanya,
who that the incoming president wanted a deal reached. Why
do you think Trump was so keen on getting a
ceasefire and will he be taking credit for this going
(07:45):
into office.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
I think everyone wants to cease fire, and it just
depends upon what terms that you get that cease fire.
Mister Biden tried very hard to get it, but he
was also very strong in his support for Israel and
mister net in particular. I imagine that that support will be
deepened even further under mister Trump. It wasn't ever a
question of America not being behind Israel. It's a question
(08:07):
of how far they're behind Israel. And I think mister
Trump will accelerate that support. He's likely to be pushing
for a number of regional initiatives, like he started out
what was known as the Abraham Accords with his first presidency,
where he tried to normalize the relationships with a number
of Israel's neighbors. Best case scenario, you can now continue
that and start to move towards those peace agreements we
(08:29):
were talking about earlier, and so although it's possible to
be pessimistic, it's also possible to be optimistic and that
there is a chance now to really reset the agenda,
especially because, as you've mentioned, with the heathy and with
his BLA and with Iran, the Israeli military has clearly
got the upper hand, and so the opposition is much
more fragmented and defeated than it has been for quite
(08:50):
some time. Not completely defeated by any means, but there
is a chance for something new, and in the best
case scenario, mister Trump will help reach towards them.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Let's talk more about Trump, who has officially returned to office,
vowing to be a peacemaker and unifier on the world stage.
He has also made repeater claims about season control of Greenland,
the Panama Canal, and potentially even Canada. What do you
make of those claims that he's made.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
Some very entertaining rhetoric. I don't think he's seriously intending
to acquire by force Greenland, Panama or Canada, but I
think it's the way of upping the antis to make
negotiations a little bit more pointed so that he can
renegotiate the deals that he wants. The broader issue you
have is that mister Trump is not so aligned to
(09:51):
an international rule based order as his predecessors, so he's
willing to make deals to get the goals that he wants.
Sometimes deals at other p may not have.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Made Argentina's Heavier Melee and Italy's Georgia Maloney were in
attendance that Trump's inauguration, both known for the far right views.
What does that say about the types of leaders Trump
is aligning himself with.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
I think you can see the pendulum of politics within
democracies is swinging towards the right at the moment. I
think this pendulum will swing back in time, but right
now the momentum is clearly towards the right and in
places the far right, although I'd be carefully around that terminology.
And mister Trump has picked up on this and he
is just the most obvious manifestation of this change. But
(10:37):
it's one that will have a lot of implications in
international policy, because whether you're talking about trade or security
or even the environment, that the need for a roles
based order is critical, but some of these governments are
willing to step out of the norms that were built
up over the last few decades.
Speaker 1 (10:54):
What's behind that swing to the right.
Speaker 3 (10:57):
Well, first off, you have to respect it because these
people come up through democracies and they represent one political viewpoint,
and the main thing is that the democracy continues even
if you disagree with who's in charge. I think you've
got to look at each issue in turn, whether it's security,
or whether it's trade, or whether it's the environment. But
sometimes the difference between the far left and the far
(11:17):
right of international stage is not that great, and so
like if you look at the issue of security, people
on the far right and often on the left are
both saying you need to do more in terms of
the amount of money that you spend, the upgrades that
are required in the alliances that are necessary to protect
your country. Where you may find more pressure, like if
(11:38):
you run with that example with mister Trump as of
the instance, So countries need to spend more on their
military and if you're a member of NATO, the target
is two percent of your GDP. I think mister Biden
was willing to turn a blind eye to countries which
didn't make that target in the past, like Canada and
like New Zealand. I think in the future you will
find more pressure on countries like Canada, in like New Zealand,
(12:01):
even though we're not a member of NATO, to increase
our spend on security. He will expect other countries to
do more in terms of the heavy lifting that America
has previously done, and if you are a friend, you
will be required to meet certain baseline expectations.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
I think what is interesting is that this year that's
just gone by, twenty twenty four was the year in
which more people voted than at any time ever in
human history, and one of the themes that was consistent
around the world was it was almost impossible for a
party to stay in power. It didn't matter whether you
were left or right. Voters felt that they're not being
well served by the people who they put into office.
(12:43):
So some of it, I think is about the bigger
picture about what's actually going on. Is it that people
don't like Trudeau? Is it that people don't like the
right the left? Is it populism? And I guess one
of the things that's really important is that we're living
in an age of revolutions.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Where does this leave more liberal governments? You know, like
we've already seen Canada's Justin Trudeau resign. What happens to
them in this context.
Speaker 3 (13:10):
Well, again, it's reached democracy to decide what kind of
government that they want. But historically the pendulum goes one way,
then it goes the other way. But you are seeing
a dissatisfaction with a number of policies in a large
number of countries. And that's not just in America or
(13:31):
in parts of Europe. You can also see it in
our own country. And you have seen some radical politics
which previous generations had stayed away from, and so often
the consensus based approach of foreign policy, of domestic policy
on certain issues like indigenous frights, there was kind of
an agreed common path. But now a lot of those
debates are up for discussion.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
And Donald Trump has been leveling all sorts of tariff threats.
Do you think we're going to see a bit of
a trade war emerge?
Speaker 3 (14:02):
To me, the way I see mister Trump is manifest
uncertainty in the way that the international world will respond.
But I don't see mister Trump is working in a
bilateral way where it's going to be like New Zealand
has to be particularly concerned about the United states, although
we must be to me, it's going to be more
like a game of billions, whereby there's going to be
dozens of countries trying to scramble for position, trying to
(14:24):
work out their relationship with mister Trump, and we will
get caught up in those blood falls bouncing around the table,
and so it will become difficult. Like if you take
one issue like said the Ukraine, and mister Trump says,
when America decides We're no longer going to fund the
defense of the Ukraine, but the Europeans say, well, we
are going to continue to fund the defense of the Ukraine.
(14:45):
Then for a country like New Zealand, we're going to
have to say, well, do we go with the Europeans
or do we go with mister Trump.
Speaker 6 (14:54):
I returned to the presidentcy confidence and optimistic that we
are at the start of the a thrilling new era
of national success. A tide of change is sweeping the
country's sunlight is pouring over the entire world, and America
has the chance to seize this opportunity like never before.
(15:15):
But first we must be honest about the challenges we face.
While there are plentiful, they will be annihilated by this
great momentum that the world is now witnessing in the
United States of America.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
And finally, as difficult as it can be to make
predictions with Trump, what do you think will happen in
terms of global politics over the next four years with
Trump at the helm in the US?
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Well, with mister Trump, it's really what's the next four days,
because things move so quickly. He's promised that within twenty
four hours he would bring a peace to the Ukraine.
He's already got his fingerprints over the hostage deal. He's
gone to have to reevaluate the situation with China, and
that we'll involve Taiwan, and of course there's for larger
relationship with Russia. And so I will take the optimistic
(16:06):
view and that he is going to try to have
a presidency very similar to what Ronald Reagan had with
his second term, and he saw an opportunity to reach
for agreements which are on everyone's best interests, like arms
control and agreement around certain chor issues that cannot be
solved unilaterally. And he has an energy and hopefully that
can be used for good. The challenge we have is
(16:29):
when agreements are proposed and like it sounds great that
you will have peace in the Ukraine within twenty four hours,
But the challenge is what are the terms of that agreement?
And the risk is that the terms of that agreement
undermine the international rules based order. So you can get
short term agreements which look great, but the longer term
consequences can be damaging if not well managed.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Thanks for joining us, al, You're welcome. That's it for
this episode of the Front Page. You can read more
about today's stories and extensive news coverage at ziherld dot
co dot MZED. The Front Page is produced by Ethan
Sills and Richard Martin, who is also our sound engineer.
(17:13):
I'm Georgena Campbell. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio
or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow
for another look behind the headlines.
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