April 7, 2026 • 26 mins
Iran has rejected a proposed ceasefire with the US and Israel.
It’s after an expletive-ridden post from President Donald Trump – where he demanded the Strait of Hormuz be opened or else Iran would be “living in Hell”.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister has accused Trump of threatening war crimes, saying strikes on power plants and bridges would target civilian infrastructure and violate international law.
Meanwhile, our Foreign Minister Winston Peters is travelling to Washington D.C. - where he’ll meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials.
Today on The Front Page, University of Otago international relations expert Robert Patman is with us to discuss the latest on the war in Iran, and what could happen next.
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You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kiyota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Iran has
rejected a proposed cease fire with the US and Israel.
It's after an expletive written post from the President of
(00:25):
the United States Donald Trump, where he demanded the Strait
of Hormuz to be reopened or else Iran would be
living in hell. Iran's deputy foreign minister is accused Trump
of threatening war crimes, saying strikes on power plants and
bridges would target civilian infrastructure and violate international law. Meanwhile,
(00:47):
our Foreign Minister, Winston Peters is traveling to Washington, d C.
Where he'll meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
and other officials this week. Today on the Front Page
at University of Otago, international relations expert Robert Patman is
with us to discuss the latest on the war in
Iran and what could happen next. So Robert, Trump has
(01:12):
renewed his threat to unleash heavy bombing on Iranian power
plants and bridges. If Tardan doesn't, we will continues to
block the straight. First off, what do you make of
his expletive ridden posts, and I can read it out.
Actually for US, it says Tuesday will be power plant
Day and bridge Day all wrapped up in one.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
In Iran, there will be nothing like it. Open the straight,
you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just
watch Praise Beta Allah. President Donald J. Trump.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Yeah, And it was said on the Easter Sunday. And
this is a president who claims that he represents those
who have the Christian faith, particularly on the right. To
be quite frank, what he said was completely unacceptable on
several levels. Firstly, he undermined the international reputation in the
United States. I think he besmirched the office of the presidency.
(02:12):
He certainly further diminished the US's reputation, not so much
in the eyes of America's authoritarian allies, but particularly in
the eyes of its democratic allies. It's almost like someone's
escape from the pub and taking over the most powerful
country in the world and being unleashed. This sort of
(02:32):
barroom talk is and provado and threats will not put
It will not make Iran's knees buckle. If anything, he
will only confirm that he is a week leader who confuses,
you know, verbal threats with real strength. It's unfortunate. So
(02:53):
I think it's very bad messaging by the United States
at a delicate time. I think it will not do
anything to increased respect for America. It will do nothing
to enhance respect for America's position in this conflict. Let's
be quite clear here, Chelsea. Mister Trump has been making
threats against Iran's infrastructure since the twenty first of March.
(03:20):
So he said, if Iran doesn't conform or comply, he
will be bombing that country back to the Stone Age,
which is a phrase he used in another speech, another
unfortunate phrase. And that may make that may make mister
Trump feel good, and that may make he's in a
circle feel good, and it may make Mega feel good.
(03:43):
Doesn't make it doesn't inspire confidence around the rest of
the world in the direction of many people. Is how
was it that America plays so much faith in someone
who behaves in this way, and this is the most
powerful leader in the world. Having said all that, these
threats are not you, and mister Trump shows himself to
be quite versatile with moving deadlines. The Iranians have made
(04:08):
it quite clear in the last ten hours. The Iranian
Foreign Minister made a statement and he said they are
fully prepared for the attacks. Another thing that we need
to clarify, not only have these threats been made since
the twenty first of March, but since the United States
launched it's illegal, premeditated and reckless attack on Iran, it
(04:36):
has been hitting the infrastructure of Iran. Thirty Iranian universities
have been hit either by Israel or the United States.
On the first day, the first twenty four hours, there
was the bombing by a cruise missile on a girl's
score which killed one hundred and sixty five young women,
(04:58):
which America hasn't been carrying an investigation into, but still
having problems producing the results of that investigation, so schools, universities.
We've also had an attack on the energy, key energy
infrastructure of Iran, the South Pass gas field. The Israelis
(05:19):
struck a massive blow there which enveloped Tehran in a
toxic cloud. These threats have been made repeatedly, and there's
already been action to deliver some of those threats. So
this big emphasis on what's going to happen on Tuesday,
eight pm Eastern Standard time, I think we have to
(05:43):
take all that into account. I would not be surprised
if mister Trump doesn't follow through with his threats, and
the Rangees have made it quite clear if he does
act on those threats, they will be demolishing the dissoliation
plants and the energy resources and infrastructure of the Golf States.
(06:08):
Ally to the United States, Mister Trump's got himself into
a bit of a political fix at the moment. He's
created a situation, which is the closing of Humus, the
Straits of Humus. He's now escalating his threats to resolve
a problem he's created. The Uranians always said they were
closed it if they were attacked, and they've always said
(06:29):
they would attack the Golf States if they were attacked
as well. And it doesn't seem to be any easy
way out for mister Trump now.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Well, there was a last ditch proposal for a forty
five day ceasefire that was sent to Iran and the US.
A White House official said Trump hadn't signed off on it.
That's Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey have all been acting as
kind of mediators between them. What would be the positives
and negatives I suppose of a forty five day ceasefire
(06:59):
for both sides?
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Well, look, I welcome this news. Mister Trump does mix
his alarming threats with his willingness to negotiate. But the
Uranians take the view this can never happen again. Whatever
we think about, and I think it's an awful regime
in Tehran. What the United States has done has actually
(07:23):
strengthened it. Surely that was not the object of the exercise. Also,
what the United States doing is a flagrant violation of
international law, which many countries, including New Zealand, depend on.
So we can't be indifferent to what the United States
is doing because it's compromising our national interests. This conflict
has to stop because too many countries are paying the
(07:44):
price for unilateral action by the United States and Israel.
None of these countries were consulted. And that's what were
slightly amusing about mister Trump appealing, in fact, pleading with
other members of the NATO alliance to help the United
States reopen the straits of hor Moos, which the United
States had UNI actually taken in steps which resulted in
(08:09):
that retaliatory effort by Iran closing the straits of all Moos.
So it seems to me that this administration doesn't seem
to have fought through the consequence of its own action,
and in particular it's underestimated the resilience of the Iranian government.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
Are you winding this down? I tell you I don't know.
I can't. It depends what they do. This is a
critical period. They have a period of well till tomorrow.
At eight o'clock I gave them an extension. They asked
for an extension of seven days, right, I said, Steve,
give them ten days. Ten days is up actually today,
(08:55):
So I gave them a level. I guess indirectly, I
thought it was inappropriate the day after Easter. I want
to be a nice person. Eight o'clock Eastern time. And
after that they're gonna have no bridges. They're gonna have
no power plants, stone agers.
Speaker 3 (09:11):
Yeah. What do you make of Trump lashing out at allies?
I saw that he mentioned Australia, Japan, South Korea.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
But mister Trump always blames everyone but himself. Throughout his
political career, It's always been the other guy's fault. Mister
Trump must win everything and he must lose nothing. He
accepts all the credit and und the responsibility. This is
his political style, and I don't think other international leaders
have any illusions about they shouldn't have. The most baffling
thing is that so many countries, including our own, have
(09:43):
persisted in a softly, softly approach to the Trump administration
and it's got them. What has it got them precisely nothing.
It encourages mister Trump. How do you deal with a bully?
Or you don't go on a charm offensive for a bully.
You make it clear to the bully that there are
cross red lines they can't cross, and if you don't,
(10:04):
then they will cross those red lines with enthusiasm. So
it seems to me that this is time. It's way
beyond time, but it's time for liberal democracies to seriously
think whether they can persist in a vain attempt to
(10:25):
moderate mister Trump's behavior by falling all over him. Mister
Trump does not share the democratic values or the democratic
interests of most of his allies, including our country. He
make it quite clear his vision of how the world
should be run is through great powers, and the United
States has the greatest power of all will sit at
(10:46):
the top table. And this is not just rhetoric from me.
It's written down in the National Security Statement released by
the administration, which too few people have read. Unfortunately, released
in late November last year, and surprise, surprise, mister Trump
has acted on it, both with respect to Venezuela and
(11:09):
now Iran. He has no time for international institutions unless
they explicitly serve what he sees as America's interests, and
he does not like multilateralism, something all governments in this
country have placed enormous faith in. So we need to
be clear about this. There's no point pretending that mister
(11:29):
Trump subscribes to all the things that New Zealand does,
because he doesn't. And I know it's a shock because
previous American governments they weren't always consistent. At least they
paid lip service to a rules based order and democratic values.
This administration, you could say, to their credit, they don't
(11:53):
actually pretend. They just, you know, in a sense, are
quite clear that this is international relations is about power
in the United States is the most powerful country in
the world, and they are prepared to act on that perception.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
What will happen though, if the US actually does say,
bomb Iran's power plant, civilian infrastructure, more of it. I mean,
he said that Iran could be taken out in one night.
Presumably which might be Tuesday eight pm Eastern Standard time.
What does the world do? What is the alternative to diplomacy?
Speaker 1 (12:32):
I wonder well, first of all, that will be a
war crime, and war crimes have already been committed by
the United States and Israel in these attacks, and so
war crimes have been committed by in retaliation by Iran.
After all, they've bombed a whole series of targets in
the Gulf States who are not privy to this attack. However,
(12:53):
they are linked to the United States by many of
them provide bases and facilities for America, the American military.
I would expect that if mister Trump acts on his threat,
he will basically kiss goodbye any prospect of regime change, because,
after all, many of the protesters, and there's plenty of
(13:14):
them in Iran before this crisis, by the way, they've
largely dissipated since the crisis began. Many of those who
oppose the repressive clerical regime will not be delighted by
the already burgeoning number of civilian deaths. More than two
thousand Iranians have already died. This bombing of civilian infrastructure
(13:39):
will probably multiply the number of civilians killed dramatically and
will probably lead to a rallying round the government of Iran.
So it seems to me not only will it be
a war crime, but it's a politically dumb thing to do.
It certainly will not advance the idea that the protesters
(14:01):
can seize the reigns of power in Tehran. There's no
example of air power alone ever achieving regime change. Historically,
there's no such example, and I don't think mister Trump's
going to achieve one in Iran. But the question that
you raised is really important because it raises tough questions
(14:23):
for the US military. Do they obey orders and carry
out war crimes or do they resist orders and refuse
and which, of course, would be in subordination to the
conundra in chief, the President of the United States. And
I think there's a fair amount of concern in the
US military at the moment about the political direction. This
(14:48):
administration so far has not handled the war competently and
people there have been a number of sackings by Pete Gift,
the Secretary of Defense, of people who apparently give him
advice he doesn't appreciate. So he's removed a number of
(15:09):
senior military officials at a time when the United States
is engaged in a war with Iran. And that's probably
unwise because Heskiff may surround himself with people who echo
his views, but if his views are wrong, then he
will only magnify poor decision making that's already been made.
Speaker 4 (15:38):
God doesn't like what's happening. I don't like what's happening.
Everyone says, I enjoy I don't enjoy this. I don't
enjoy These two guys don't enjoy it. You know, people say,
oh boy, they're so. They don't want they don't like.
I don't like seeing people killed. I've ended eight wars.
Nobody's ever done it. The person who won the Nobel
Prize came to me and said, you deserve the Nobel Prize.
(16:00):
She announced that. When they announced, they said, goes to Maria.
She's a great person, really a good person. She said, no, no, no,
this is ridiculous. They gave me the Nobel Prize. President
Trump ended eight wars. I could go over every one
of them, including India and Pakistan, where the Prime Minister
of Pakistan said President Trump saved from thirty to fifty
(16:23):
million lives. That makes me much happier than what we're
doing right now. That makes me much happier. We have
one more to end.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
By the way, when do you expect the Golf States
to really intervene? Because iron can't touch or reach US
civilian infrastructure, for example, but it certainly can reach the
allies in the Golf States. When do you expect them
to kind of stand up and go, hang on, we
need to get in there.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
I think the Golf States, I think they're divided. I
think on the one hand, there are those like the
UAE and Saudi Arabia who've been quietly egging on the
Americans and say finish the job. There was a OpEd
article in the Wall Street Journal recently by a senior
(17:12):
official in the UAE government which was saying, the Americans
really must deal with this long running problem. But actually
if they could, they would, and they probably cannot so,
and not only that is probably not in the UAE's
best interests or Saudi Arabia's best interests to urge actions
(17:41):
which would almost certainly result in massive Iranian retaliation against
the Gold States. The Iranians have constantly wrong footed the
Americans right from the outset. They reframed the conflict in
a way America didn't expect. Mister Trump said, no one,
in his words, had expected Iran to attack the Gold States. Well,
(18:04):
that's an extraordinary comment in itself, given the fact that
all intelligence people said that Iran had telegraphed this for
about a year and it had actually sent diplomats to
the Gold States warning them just what would happen if
they were attacked by the United States. But putting that
to one side, there are, on the one hand, as
(18:26):
joey Uae and Saudi Arabia who remained deeply pro American
and committed, i think, to Trump's solution despite the consequences
for themselves. On the other hand, the states like Kata
who believe they played a key role in the mediation
(18:49):
talks in Gaza and believe that and they have good
relations with Iran. They believe that the Gold States it's
in their own interests to get along with Iran. And
let's be quite clear, the economies of these countries could
be actually wrecked by Iran's retaliation. And who would these
(19:14):
countries blame if that retaliation occurred, Well, they would blame Iran,
but they might also blame the country which triggered Iran's
response the United States, So it could be would how
would they respond? As I said, there's a division of opinion.
I do think it could if mister Trump goes ahead
(19:36):
of his threats, it could end up essentially undermining America's
position in relation to many of the golf states. After all,
they've done everything possible to appease him, given him gifts
of planes, huge investment in the United States. But in
their view, mister Trump seems to listen only to Netta
(19:56):
Yahoo and not to them.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
And so.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
For all their desperate attempts to win over mister Trump,
and all the flattery and all the money that's been
pumped into the United States in terms of investment, it
was not enough to prevent mister Trump taking mister neck
new Yahoo's advice and attacking Iran.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
Well, our foreign minister Winston Peters is on his way
to Washington, d C. Now, in reality, they're not obviously
going to be seeing Winston walk down a corridor and
be like, oh, Winston's here, we best stop bombing. But
what is the purpose of our foreign minister being there?
Speaker 1 (20:36):
I suppose, Well, I think mister Peters would say he's
there to advance New Zealand's national interests and also probably
consolidate the close relationship with the United States that this
current government has set itself the goal of fostering. And
I think mister Peters will also be keen to keep
(20:57):
the Americans engaged in the Pacific Island Nations region. Mister
Peters and mister Luxe and the government and many New
Zanders have been concerned by the fact that China's become
increasingly assertive. The question is is it strategically reading the
room correctly to go to a country which is unleashed
(21:22):
to an illegal war and seek to get closer to it.
After all, what mister Trump is doing is a dire
threat to our national interests. It's difficult. I don't want
to prejudge this. For all I know, mister Peter's may
be going there to deliver a very tough message. I
do think it's the right thing to have a dialogue
(21:42):
and take the opportunity to speak to the United States.
But we can't gloss over the fact, and so far
we have the official government statements have blamed almost entirely
Iran for the attacks that occurred against Iran, and we've
given none of the blame to the United States. If
we continue that form in Washington, that will be seen
(22:03):
as complicity and tasted support for what's happening. And I
think that's a real that's the danger for New Zealand
because we're much more vulnerable than America is to some
of the food, the hikes in terms of prices food
and of course energy, and I think many New Zealanders
(22:24):
will be very concerned about that. I hope that mister
Peters would do what mister Luxeon said he would do
at the beginning of his administration or his government, his
coalition government, stand up for New Zealand values. It's quite
clear that what's happening this war of choice, this reckless
war of choice. Know what, mister Trump didn't have to
(22:45):
do this. He said he'd obliterated the nuclear capabilities of
Iran in June twenty twenty five at Israel said it
destroyed half of Iran's missile capabilities. But here we are,
less than twelve months later doing it again. So I
do hope that we combined a willingness to engage with
(23:08):
the United States with also clarity about where we stand.
We need to say to the United States and not
least to the Americans who also disapproved of this. We
always forget about them, but we shouldn't. As a democracy,
we need to remind them that we disapprove of this action.
We're a small country, we can't do much, and we
(23:30):
seem to be terrified of any sort of retaliation by
the United States, but we have to weigh that up
against a wider interest. What's the wider interests? Do we
want to live in a world where great powers can
throw their weight around with impunity and we, as a
smaller player, have to accept what we're given, or do
(23:51):
we want a rules based international order In the short term,
it may involve some ruffling of feathers in Washington to
spell out and we're not alone in this. It's just
that governments are not speaking out publicly. We're not the
only democracy in the world that is uncomfortable what of
America's doing. But many of them are keeping their heads down.
(24:14):
But they will pay a big price for that because
that will be seen as complicity by the administration in Washington.
The quicker we make ourselves clear on where we stand
on this issue, I think the quicker we will advance
our national interests. Mister Peters, I hope will keep the
Americans engaged in the Pacific. I think that's important and
(24:38):
I think we need, as I said before, we need
to be very clear eyed that this administration doesn't share
our views on the importance of a rules based order,
and we need to be pragmatic. A two track approach
is what I'm hoping mister Peters will articulate in Washington.
(24:59):
Where our interests can verge, we should enthusiastic embrace cooperation
with the United States, but where they diverge, we shouldn't
take a step back. We certainly shouldn't compromise on our
commitment to international law because we have a huge self
interest in maintaining that, as does Australian does many other
(25:20):
countries in the world. So I do think we need
to be nuanced in our approach.
Speaker 3 (25:28):
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is
hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels. Caine Dickie is
our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and
our executive producer.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Is Jane Ye.
Speaker 3 (25:55):
Follow the front page on the iHeart app or wherever
you get your podcasts, and join us next time for
another look beyond the headlines.
Speaker 4 (26:09):
Mm hmm
Kiyota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Iran has
rejected a proposed cease fire with the US and Israel.
It's after an expletive written post from the President of
(00:25):
the United States Donald Trump, where he demanded the Strait
of Hormuz to be reopened or else Iran would be
living in hell. Iran's deputy foreign minister is accused Trump
of threatening war crimes, saying strikes on power plants and
bridges would target civilian infrastructure and violate international law. Meanwhile,
(00:47):
our Foreign Minister, Winston Peters is traveling to Washington, d C.
Where he'll meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
and other officials this week. Today on the Front Page
at University of Otago, international relations expert Robert Patman is
with us to discuss the latest on the war in
Iran and what could happen next. So Robert, Trump has
(01:12):
renewed his threat to unleash heavy bombing on Iranian power
plants and bridges. If Tardan doesn't, we will continues to
block the straight. First off, what do you make of
his expletive ridden posts, and I can read it out.
Actually for US, it says Tuesday will be power plant
Day and bridge Day all wrapped up in one.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
In Iran, there will be nothing like it. Open the straight,
you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just
watch Praise Beta Allah. President Donald J. Trump.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Yeah, And it was said on the Easter Sunday. And
this is a president who claims that he represents those
who have the Christian faith, particularly on the right. To
be quite frank, what he said was completely unacceptable on
several levels. Firstly, he undermined the international reputation in the
United States. I think he besmirched the office of the presidency.
(02:12):
He certainly further diminished the US's reputation, not so much
in the eyes of America's authoritarian allies, but particularly in
the eyes of its democratic allies. It's almost like someone's
escape from the pub and taking over the most powerful
country in the world and being unleashed. This sort of
(02:32):
barroom talk is and provado and threats will not put
It will not make Iran's knees buckle. If anything, he
will only confirm that he is a week leader who confuses,
you know, verbal threats with real strength. It's unfortunate. So
(02:53):
I think it's very bad messaging by the United States
at a delicate time. I think it will not do
anything to increased respect for America. It will do nothing
to enhance respect for America's position in this conflict. Let's
be quite clear here, Chelsea. Mister Trump has been making
threats against Iran's infrastructure since the twenty first of March.
(03:20):
So he said, if Iran doesn't conform or comply, he
will be bombing that country back to the Stone Age,
which is a phrase he used in another speech, another
unfortunate phrase. And that may make that may make mister
Trump feel good, and that may make he's in a
circle feel good, and it may make Mega feel good.
(03:43):
Doesn't make it doesn't inspire confidence around the rest of
the world in the direction of many people. Is how
was it that America plays so much faith in someone
who behaves in this way, and this is the most
powerful leader in the world. Having said all that, these
threats are not you, and mister Trump shows himself to
be quite versatile with moving deadlines. The Iranians have made
(04:08):
it quite clear in the last ten hours. The Iranian
Foreign Minister made a statement and he said they are
fully prepared for the attacks. Another thing that we need
to clarify, not only have these threats been made since
the twenty first of March, but since the United States
launched it's illegal, premeditated and reckless attack on Iran, it
(04:36):
has been hitting the infrastructure of Iran. Thirty Iranian universities
have been hit either by Israel or the United States.
On the first day, the first twenty four hours, there
was the bombing by a cruise missile on a girl's
score which killed one hundred and sixty five young women,
(04:58):
which America hasn't been carrying an investigation into, but still
having problems producing the results of that investigation, so schools, universities.
We've also had an attack on the energy, key energy
infrastructure of Iran, the South Pass gas field. The Israelis
(05:19):
struck a massive blow there which enveloped Tehran in a
toxic cloud. These threats have been made repeatedly, and there's
already been action to deliver some of those threats. So
this big emphasis on what's going to happen on Tuesday,
eight pm Eastern Standard time, I think we have to
(05:43):
take all that into account. I would not be surprised
if mister Trump doesn't follow through with his threats, and
the Rangees have made it quite clear if he does
act on those threats, they will be demolishing the dissoliation
plants and the energy resources and infrastructure of the Golf States.
(06:08):
Ally to the United States, Mister Trump's got himself into
a bit of a political fix at the moment. He's
created a situation, which is the closing of Humus, the
Straits of Humus. He's now escalating his threats to resolve
a problem he's created. The Uranians always said they were
closed it if they were attacked, and they've always said
(06:29):
they would attack the Golf States if they were attacked
as well. And it doesn't seem to be any easy
way out for mister Trump now.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Well, there was a last ditch proposal for a forty
five day ceasefire that was sent to Iran and the US.
A White House official said Trump hadn't signed off on it.
That's Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey have all been acting as
kind of mediators between them. What would be the positives
and negatives I suppose of a forty five day ceasefire
(06:59):
for both sides?
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Well, look, I welcome this news. Mister Trump does mix
his alarming threats with his willingness to negotiate. But the
Uranians take the view this can never happen again. Whatever
we think about, and I think it's an awful regime
in Tehran. What the United States has done has actually
(07:23):
strengthened it. Surely that was not the object of the exercise. Also,
what the United States doing is a flagrant violation of
international law, which many countries, including New Zealand, depend on.
So we can't be indifferent to what the United States
is doing because it's compromising our national interests. This conflict
has to stop because too many countries are paying the
(07:44):
price for unilateral action by the United States and Israel.
None of these countries were consulted. And that's what were
slightly amusing about mister Trump appealing, in fact, pleading with
other members of the NATO alliance to help the United
States reopen the straits of hor Moos, which the United
States had UNI actually taken in steps which resulted in
(08:09):
that retaliatory effort by Iran closing the straits of all Moos.
So it seems to me that this administration doesn't seem
to have fought through the consequence of its own action,
and in particular it's underestimated the resilience of the Iranian government.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
Are you winding this down? I tell you I don't know.
I can't. It depends what they do. This is a
critical period. They have a period of well till tomorrow.
At eight o'clock I gave them an extension. They asked
for an extension of seven days, right, I said, Steve,
give them ten days. Ten days is up actually today,
(08:55):
So I gave them a level. I guess indirectly, I
thought it was inappropriate the day after Easter. I want
to be a nice person. Eight o'clock Eastern time. And
after that they're gonna have no bridges. They're gonna have
no power plants, stone agers.
Speaker 3 (09:11):
Yeah. What do you make of Trump lashing out at allies?
I saw that he mentioned Australia, Japan, South Korea.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
But mister Trump always blames everyone but himself. Throughout his
political career, It's always been the other guy's fault. Mister
Trump must win everything and he must lose nothing. He
accepts all the credit and und the responsibility. This is
his political style, and I don't think other international leaders
have any illusions about they shouldn't have. The most baffling
thing is that so many countries, including our own, have
(09:43):
persisted in a softly, softly approach to the Trump administration
and it's got them. What has it got them precisely nothing.
It encourages mister Trump. How do you deal with a bully?
Or you don't go on a charm offensive for a bully.
You make it clear to the bully that there are
cross red lines they can't cross, and if you don't,
(10:04):
then they will cross those red lines with enthusiasm. So
it seems to me that this is time. It's way
beyond time, but it's time for liberal democracies to seriously
think whether they can persist in a vain attempt to
(10:25):
moderate mister Trump's behavior by falling all over him. Mister
Trump does not share the democratic values or the democratic
interests of most of his allies, including our country. He
make it quite clear his vision of how the world
should be run is through great powers, and the United
States has the greatest power of all will sit at
(10:46):
the top table. And this is not just rhetoric from me.
It's written down in the National Security Statement released by
the administration, which too few people have read. Unfortunately, released
in late November last year, and surprise, surprise, mister Trump
has acted on it, both with respect to Venezuela and
(11:09):
now Iran. He has no time for international institutions unless
they explicitly serve what he sees as America's interests, and
he does not like multilateralism, something all governments in this
country have placed enormous faith in. So we need to
be clear about this. There's no point pretending that mister
(11:29):
Trump subscribes to all the things that New Zealand does,
because he doesn't. And I know it's a shock because
previous American governments they weren't always consistent. At least they
paid lip service to a rules based order and democratic values.
This administration, you could say, to their credit, they don't
(11:53):
actually pretend. They just, you know, in a sense, are
quite clear that this is international relations is about power
in the United States is the most powerful country in
the world, and they are prepared to act on that perception.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
What will happen though, if the US actually does say,
bomb Iran's power plant, civilian infrastructure, more of it. I mean,
he said that Iran could be taken out in one night.
Presumably which might be Tuesday eight pm Eastern Standard time.
What does the world do? What is the alternative to diplomacy?
Speaker 1 (12:32):
I wonder well, first of all, that will be a
war crime, and war crimes have already been committed by
the United States and Israel in these attacks, and so
war crimes have been committed by in retaliation by Iran.
After all, they've bombed a whole series of targets in
the Gulf States who are not privy to this attack. However,
(12:53):
they are linked to the United States by many of
them provide bases and facilities for America, the American military.
I would expect that if mister Trump acts on his threat,
he will basically kiss goodbye any prospect of regime change, because,
after all, many of the protesters, and there's plenty of
(13:14):
them in Iran before this crisis, by the way, they've
largely dissipated since the crisis began. Many of those who
oppose the repressive clerical regime will not be delighted by
the already burgeoning number of civilian deaths. More than two
thousand Iranians have already died. This bombing of civilian infrastructure
(13:39):
will probably multiply the number of civilians killed dramatically and
will probably lead to a rallying round the government of Iran.
So it seems to me not only will it be
a war crime, but it's a politically dumb thing to do.
It certainly will not advance the idea that the protesters
(14:01):
can seize the reigns of power in Tehran. There's no
example of air power alone ever achieving regime change. Historically,
there's no such example, and I don't think mister Trump's
going to achieve one in Iran. But the question that
you raised is really important because it raises tough questions
(14:23):
for the US military. Do they obey orders and carry
out war crimes or do they resist orders and refuse
and which, of course, would be in subordination to the
conundra in chief, the President of the United States. And
I think there's a fair amount of concern in the
US military at the moment about the political direction. This
(14:48):
administration so far has not handled the war competently and
people there have been a number of sackings by Pete Gift,
the Secretary of Defense, of people who apparently give him
advice he doesn't appreciate. So he's removed a number of
(15:09):
senior military officials at a time when the United States
is engaged in a war with Iran. And that's probably
unwise because Heskiff may surround himself with people who echo
his views, but if his views are wrong, then he
will only magnify poor decision making that's already been made.
Speaker 4 (15:38):
God doesn't like what's happening. I don't like what's happening.
Everyone says, I enjoy I don't enjoy this. I don't
enjoy These two guys don't enjoy it. You know, people say,
oh boy, they're so. They don't want they don't like.
I don't like seeing people killed. I've ended eight wars.
Nobody's ever done it. The person who won the Nobel
Prize came to me and said, you deserve the Nobel Prize.
(16:00):
She announced that. When they announced, they said, goes to Maria.
She's a great person, really a good person. She said, no, no, no,
this is ridiculous. They gave me the Nobel Prize. President
Trump ended eight wars. I could go over every one
of them, including India and Pakistan, where the Prime Minister
of Pakistan said President Trump saved from thirty to fifty
(16:23):
million lives. That makes me much happier than what we're
doing right now. That makes me much happier. We have
one more to end.
Speaker 3 (16:31):
By the way, when do you expect the Golf States
to really intervene? Because iron can't touch or reach US
civilian infrastructure, for example, but it certainly can reach the
allies in the Golf States. When do you expect them
to kind of stand up and go, hang on, we
need to get in there.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
I think the Golf States, I think they're divided. I
think on the one hand, there are those like the
UAE and Saudi Arabia who've been quietly egging on the
Americans and say finish the job. There was a OpEd
article in the Wall Street Journal recently by a senior
(17:12):
official in the UAE government which was saying, the Americans
really must deal with this long running problem. But actually
if they could, they would, and they probably cannot so,
and not only that is probably not in the UAE's
best interests or Saudi Arabia's best interests to urge actions
(17:41):
which would almost certainly result in massive Iranian retaliation against
the Gold States. The Iranians have constantly wrong footed the
Americans right from the outset. They reframed the conflict in
a way America didn't expect. Mister Trump said, no one,
in his words, had expected Iran to attack the Gold States. Well,
(18:04):
that's an extraordinary comment in itself, given the fact that
all intelligence people said that Iran had telegraphed this for
about a year and it had actually sent diplomats to
the Gold States warning them just what would happen if
they were attacked by the United States. But putting that
to one side, there are, on the one hand, as
(18:26):
joey Uae and Saudi Arabia who remained deeply pro American
and committed, i think, to Trump's solution despite the consequences
for themselves. On the other hand, the states like Kata
who believe they played a key role in the mediation
(18:49):
talks in Gaza and believe that and they have good
relations with Iran. They believe that the Gold States it's
in their own interests to get along with Iran. And
let's be quite clear, the economies of these countries could
be actually wrecked by Iran's retaliation. And who would these
(19:14):
countries blame if that retaliation occurred, Well, they would blame Iran,
but they might also blame the country which triggered Iran's
response the United States, So it could be would how
would they respond? As I said, there's a division of opinion.
I do think it could if mister Trump goes ahead
(19:36):
of his threats, it could end up essentially undermining America's
position in relation to many of the golf states. After all,
they've done everything possible to appease him, given him gifts
of planes, huge investment in the United States. But in
their view, mister Trump seems to listen only to Netta
(19:56):
Yahoo and not to them.
Speaker 4 (19:59):
And so.
Speaker 1 (20:01):
For all their desperate attempts to win over mister Trump,
and all the flattery and all the money that's been
pumped into the United States in terms of investment, it
was not enough to prevent mister Trump taking mister neck
new Yahoo's advice and attacking Iran.
Speaker 3 (20:19):
Well, our foreign minister Winston Peters is on his way
to Washington, d C. Now, in reality, they're not obviously
going to be seeing Winston walk down a corridor and
be like, oh, Winston's here, we best stop bombing. But
what is the purpose of our foreign minister being there?
Speaker 1 (20:36):
I suppose, Well, I think mister Peters would say he's
there to advance New Zealand's national interests and also probably
consolidate the close relationship with the United States that this
current government has set itself the goal of fostering. And
I think mister Peters will also be keen to keep
(20:57):
the Americans engaged in the Pacific Island Nations region. Mister
Peters and mister Luxe and the government and many New
Zanders have been concerned by the fact that China's become
increasingly assertive. The question is is it strategically reading the
room correctly to go to a country which is unleashed
(21:22):
to an illegal war and seek to get closer to it.
After all, what mister Trump is doing is a dire
threat to our national interests. It's difficult. I don't want
to prejudge this. For all I know, mister Peter's may
be going there to deliver a very tough message. I
do think it's the right thing to have a dialogue
(21:42):
and take the opportunity to speak to the United States.
But we can't gloss over the fact, and so far
we have the official government statements have blamed almost entirely
Iran for the attacks that occurred against Iran, and we've
given none of the blame to the United States. If
we continue that form in Washington, that will be seen
(22:03):
as complicity and tasted support for what's happening. And I
think that's a real that's the danger for New Zealand
because we're much more vulnerable than America is to some
of the food, the hikes in terms of prices food
and of course energy, and I think many New Zealanders
(22:24):
will be very concerned about that. I hope that mister
Peters would do what mister Luxeon said he would do
at the beginning of his administration or his government, his
coalition government, stand up for New Zealand values. It's quite
clear that what's happening this war of choice, this reckless
war of choice. Know what, mister Trump didn't have to
(22:45):
do this. He said he'd obliterated the nuclear capabilities of
Iran in June twenty twenty five at Israel said it
destroyed half of Iran's missile capabilities. But here we are,
less than twelve months later doing it again. So I
do hope that we combined a willingness to engage with
(23:08):
the United States with also clarity about where we stand.
We need to say to the United States and not
least to the Americans who also disapproved of this. We
always forget about them, but we shouldn't. As a democracy,
we need to remind them that we disapprove of this action.
We're a small country, we can't do much, and we
(23:30):
seem to be terrified of any sort of retaliation by
the United States, but we have to weigh that up
against a wider interest. What's the wider interests? Do we
want to live in a world where great powers can
throw their weight around with impunity and we, as a
smaller player, have to accept what we're given, or do
(23:51):
we want a rules based international order In the short term,
it may involve some ruffling of feathers in Washington to
spell out and we're not alone in this. It's just
that governments are not speaking out publicly. We're not the
only democracy in the world that is uncomfortable what of
America's doing. But many of them are keeping their heads down.
(24:14):
But they will pay a big price for that because
that will be seen as complicity by the administration in Washington.
The quicker we make ourselves clear on where we stand
on this issue, I think the quicker we will advance
our national interests. Mister Peters, I hope will keep the
Americans engaged in the Pacific. I think that's important and
(24:38):
I think we need, as I said before, we need
to be very clear eyed that this administration doesn't share
our views on the importance of a rules based order,
and we need to be pragmatic. A two track approach
is what I'm hoping mister Peters will articulate in Washington.
(24:59):
Where our interests can verge, we should enthusiastic embrace cooperation
with the United States, but where they diverge, we shouldn't
take a step back. We certainly shouldn't compromise on our
commitment to international law because we have a huge self
interest in maintaining that, as does Australian does many other
(25:20):
countries in the world. So I do think we need
to be nuanced in our approach.
Speaker 3 (25:28):
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidherld dot co dot enz. The Front Page is
hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels. Caine Dickie is
our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and
our executive producer.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
Is Jane Ye.
Speaker 3 (25:55):
Follow the front page on the iHeart app or wherever
you get your podcasts, and join us next time for
another look beyond the headlines.
Speaker 4 (26:09):
Mm hmm
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