March 5, 2026 • 16 mins
A new poll out today spells a storm brewing for National.
The Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll has shown National drop nearly three-points to 28.4% -- the lowest poll for the party since it formed a Government in 2023.
It’s while Labour is up 0.3 points to 34.4% - The Greens are up to 10.5%, NZ First are down to 9.7%, ACT up to 7.5%, and Te Pāti Māori up to 3.2 percent.
This all means that if an election was held today, the centre-Left bloc could form the next government, although by a pretty small margin.
The situation is being compared to National’s performance in the 2020 election, where the party suffered one of the worst election losses in its history.
Today on The Front Page, NZ Herald political editor, Thomas Coughlan, is with us to break down what the numbers mean, and who could be on the chopping block.
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You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
The New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
A new poll out today spells a storm brewing for National.
The Taxpayer's Union Courier Pole has shown National drop nearly
three points to twenty eight point four percent, the lowest
poll for the party since it formed a government in
twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
It's while Labor is up zero.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Point three points to thirty four point four percent, The
Greens are up to ten point five percent, and Said
First down to nine point seven percent, Act up to
seven point five percent and Tipatimori up to three point
two percent. This all means that if an election was
held today, the center left bloc could form the next government,
(00:59):
although by a pretty small margin. The situation is being
compared to National's performance in the twenty twenty election, where
the party suffered one of the worst election losses in
its history. Today on the front Page, Zaid Herald political
editor Thomas Coglan is with us to break down.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
What the numbers mean and who could be on the
chopping block.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Thomas tell me about why this poll might be different
to others.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
A couple of reasons This poll is the worst poll
from a major pulse that we've seen for the National Party.
Is the worst that they have had since mister Blackson
has been leader. It's the worst of hair darn since
Stuart Collins has predecessor his leader. It's incredibly low for
a party in government. My understanding is that it's the
lowest a National Party has ever polled whilst in government
(01:49):
since the late nineteen nineties when Junior Shipley got a
similar number. So it is incredibly low. Now the political
environment has changed a little bit. The government the National
parties in coalition with actor New Zealand First, and that
means that just structurally the National Party is probably going
to be polling at a lower number then National was
(02:12):
polling when John Key was Prime Minister and National was
the main I mean government, So that is just a
struggle change there is probably taking place. That's said, even
taking into them into account twenty eight percent around it
is a is an incredibly no low number and it
does come on the back of a terrible beak for
(02:33):
the Prime Minister. Everyone. That's basically the opinion of everyone.
Nicola Willis even went on z B and said that
it hadn't been a great week for the Prime Minister.
She could have said it hadn't been a great week
for the National Party. That she chose to say the
Prime minister, So everyone acknowledges it's been. It is interesting
and everyone acknowledges that. I think the real thing that
did it was his response to that question about the
(02:55):
American action in Iran. He said New Zealand supported any
actions it was him against the Iranian regime, obviously a
very horrible regime that New Zealand does actually support taking
many actions against. We do support taking many actions against
the Iranian regime. We've sanctioned and participated in sections against them.
But we do not support any actions against the Iranian regime,
(03:18):
which is the distinction. And when Chrystoper Latin was asked
about whether we'd support Carver bombing, for instance, he totally
fumbled his answer, and that was sort of thing is
pretty disastrous because obviously Carver bombing is widely accepted to
be a war crime, and obviously it shouldn't be that
difficult to say that New Zealand opposes war crimes because
we do. It's just a bipartisan thing of of of
(03:42):
of of New Zealand politics, that we're opposed to war
crimes SMD, most countries are, and there's an ability to
articulate articulate A simple position on that was was pretty
roundly panned.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Do you think that the corporate speak and the kind
of fumbling through questions with pre rittian responses and phrases
have has really tripped him up this time because I
feel like you can go through a normal press conference
or a normal post cab by doing that, but when
it comes to, like you said, geopolitical tensions in the
(04:13):
Middle East and the fact that you either do support
or you don't support a war crime, that's really tripping
him up.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
Well, I think that that is one of the things
that's significant as well, which is just the thing that
there is a war in the Middle East is a
very serious one of the most serious foreign policy challenges
that this government has faced, or many governments will will
leave a face and there's an ability to kind of
Speaker's way talk his way through those challenges is really
(04:43):
quite remarkable, and it's a massive problem for him as
a leader. You have to be comfortable in that foreignera space,
and I think when you watched him on Monday, struggle
there and you think about other prime ministers that were
paidops just doing famously was it was a very good
sort of communicator of difficult issues and it shows It
showed that the wide gulf between his ability to sort
(05:06):
of explain his positioning on things and other time minister's
ability to do the same thing. It is not an
easy thing to do, but it certainly didn't have to
be as hard as eat as he made it look.
On Monday, do.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
You think on twenty eight percent people are there in
the caucus of the asking questions about your leader.
Speaker 5 (05:31):
No. I think what we're focused on is, yep, you're
going to ask the question today. Are you're feeling happy?
And a lot of people are still feeling like life
is very tough, very different question when you get to
the elections, because when you get to the election, you've
got a choice.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Do you want these.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Guys or do you want those guys?
Speaker 4 (05:46):
Why we're voting for Winston. He's in government with you
and he's mister popular.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
Well, you know, things come and go, not don't worry
about that. Well Luxon, No, no, he won't be going anyway.
He's doing very good job.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Okay, So you're support them one hundred percent of the election.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
Absolutely.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Now people might be hearing about this being compared.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
To the blue blood bath of twenty twenty with Judith
Collins at the Helm. Why might we be striking those comparisons.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Because if this poll were repeated on an election day,
and Nichola Willis again used to the MB interview this
morning on Nick Mills's show to say that these numbers
would be unacceupitable if they were repeated on polling day. Basically,
if they were repeated on polling day, you'd be seeing
one of the worst National Party defeats in its history.
The twenty twenty result was twenty five point five something
(06:41):
and this obviously number is about twenty eight slightly higher
than twenty eight, is about two and a half to
three points higher than that twenty twenty result. That twenty
twenty result was the second worst result of the National
Party have ever told I have ever notched up in
its entire history, which is more than eighty years old
the National Party. So it is an incredibly bad result.
(07:02):
It would be an incredibly bad result for the National Party.
You would see it was the enormous numbers of MPs
lose their jobs, which is why there's also significant because
those EMPs will be looking at that pole and thinking, right,
should I participate in rolling the leader in order to
save my skin? Because at the moment on this currentcy pole,
then I am out the job. So that is why
(07:23):
it's it's significant. I think also though, you have to
peer it with that Monday afternoon part in post care,
and you have to peer it with with his wider
inability to explain himself. Because if you were a if
you're a backbeach gingp and you were thinking, right, do
I do I participate in this coud, you'd be looking
at You'd be looking at those those public place and
(07:47):
events of the prime Minister and probably questioning his ability
to lead the party to to beat her polling in
the future.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Do you think that Christopher Luxon has the ability to
admit that he is not the one that is to
be at the helm come election time? Do you think
he would actually resign as leader?
Speaker 3 (08:06):
A smooth question. I honestly haven't acclude. I'll be very honest,
I don't know. It is just that is something that
will be very deeply personal for him, and it was
really anyone gets us to where that he will make
that decision. He's certainly an ambitious person, a very ambitious
person who's gone through a lot of difficulty to get
(08:29):
to the job that he has achieved. It is the
great spinnacle of Korea, and one would imagine that he
wouldn't give it up lightly, because once we give it up,
it's neither ether ether unspect a game.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Well, I was only asking that because I was looking
around this morning and I was thinking what was Labor
polling out at when Andrew Little resigned ahead of the
twenty seventeen election. They were polling it around twenty three,
twenty four, famously handing over the leadership to j Cindra Adern,
who then picked up those numbers by the end of
the month up into the mid forties. So is the
(09:03):
problem here, though, really that there is no one there's
no dis cinder in the wings.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
For national there is an obvious center in the wings.
And I think I think just Ender doing sort of
casts a bit of a shadow over New Zealand politics
because I think for many years now into the future,
when never a party conforming, poor League will always be
looking for the just Cender. And what may Juster doing
special is that is that there really was only one
(09:30):
Just Cender, you know, even even John Key, who was
the only politician in recent times it was of similar popularity.
Was quite a different as parts of the leaders to
the leadership was much more obvious. I mean, he achieved
the leadership sooner, but it was a much clearer part
that he hadn't, rather than the sort of just Cender,
which was almost like flicking on the light switch, switching
all of a sudden she was there and the polling
(09:50):
was good. There is no Just Cender in the National
Party at the moment, but that doesn't mean that that
there won't be a change. But there's no obvious candidate
and that probably does help mister luxm stay in this position.
But it is more there are other challenges with There
(10:11):
are mainly the fact that actually mainly the fact that
the National government is the governments.
Speaker 6 (10:25):
The Prime Minister has had a challenging week and I
actually respect him being vulnerable enough to say, well, actually
I must spoke during the week, and there has been
a lot of focus on that. I always think it's
good when people do admit they didn't get something quite right.
We are living in a very complex and difficult time
and he is being asked to give yes no answers
(10:49):
to questions that are pretty subtle, have a lot of complexity,
and he hasn't been able to give yes no answers.
In the media obviously have highlighted that, and he's admitted
that he spoke on an occasion. So I don't think
it's been a great week for the Prime minister.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
So Winston Peters has described the poll as not good
but not the end of the world. You can see
why the Nats but also their coalition partners might be
a little bit more optimistic than most. I heard Judith
Collins on Herold Now this morning as well saying that, look,
there are other things happening around in the world. Now,
it's a difficult time, et cetera, et cetera. But do
(11:27):
you think that everyone in Parliament feels this way, And
you mentioned the back benches before as well, they be
really scratching their heads at this point.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Yeah, they will be on those numbers. National would lose
a lot of seats and that could mean that could
mean a large hundred MPs without the job, could be
senior in peace without the job, and they would also
struggle for list placings. Now Paul Goldsmith is on the list.
He's a senior MP. Nicola Willis is on the list.
She's the National Public Deputy. Chris Bishop as in a
(11:55):
marginal seat huts out on Twitter Nationals on twenty eight percent.
It probably lose that seat and he'd had to get
them on the list. So there's a senior in piece
who could really struggle to find a job coming to
and that does create instability.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Now, there were whisperings of a possible coup last year,
late last year.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Actually, what do you make of them? And will the
whisperings slowly get louder this year.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
After this pole?
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Well, assumainly, I don't think this pole is going to
help all the springs, but it is example whether it
would make them worse. I was here when when the
Simon Bridges, Todd Malla Judith Colin's kind of situation happened,
and they were very slow moving things, and and then
(12:44):
and then it all and then it all, it all
sort of ticks off, I think. So there's that famous
Hemingway quote about how someone goes broke, they go broke
slowly and then suddenly, So what do.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
You make of Nikola Willis's comments about this poll and
the wording I suppose.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I think I think it shows that everyone acknowledges that
beings a very pretty bad but I think you know,
you can read those those remarks out of way. She
acknowledges that it's been a bad week, which is realistic,
but also there's tough all run the loot, so so
really it feels like it's when you thing can happen.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
What is the significance of this being a Courier pole?
Speaker 3 (13:31):
So Curier is the National Putn's pulse and it has
been the National Party's pulster for a long time. They
also do the national part of internal polls, so this
is a textpayers Union Curier pulse. It's separate. But because
the SECURIA does the National Party internal pulse, you can
you can bet that the polls that the National Party
gets internally their internal poles that they used to make
(13:53):
the decision that are very similar to these numbers. And
that's what MPCE has been telling me, that their internal
numbers are very similar.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
What else have mp has been telling you? And generally
I guess from from a from an audience perspective and
for someone who doesn't actually isn't in the beehive every
day like you are, because there are good relationships between
journalists and MPs and their officers and everything as well. Hey,
how much actually actual talking goes on before one of
these poles come out.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Well, you know, we talk to the EMPs all the time,
We have we give, we talk about a number of
things all the time. It's sort of the job of
the gallery journalists to keep those channels of communication open
and just to listen to what MPs are saying about
what this happening in parlierment and certainly in ps m
ps no one thinks this as a good pole. But
(14:41):
this is quite clearly not but but but the view
from the MPs that I've spoken to, which is a
large nunder of MPs. But but you know, you can't
ring around all of them. That the view from the
MPs is that is that it really is a case
for chrystoph laxing to decide their own the future, and
not a case fuller rolling him because obviously he is
(15:02):
the prime minister, it is an election year and actually
rolling him and wielding the knife a big, quite significant step.
So the question is whether he comes to the conclusion
that he can no longer go on. But there is
you know, there is a There is quite a big
thing to think about, and it's not there that he
is doing at apartment. He's been silent, he's not public
basing today. We don't know whether he's weighing up his
(15:23):
future today or whether he's just enjoying a nice Friday
somewhere with his family.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
Noah, really, thanks for joining us, Thomas, no worries.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
Have good weekend.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
You can read more about today's stories and extensive news
coverage at enzidhrald dot co dot enz The Front Page
is hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels. Caine Dickie
is our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Editor, and our executive producer is Jane Ye. Follow the
Front Page on the iheartapp or wherever you get your podcasts,
and join us next time for another look beyond the headlines.
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by.
Speaker 1 (00:11):
The New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
A new poll out today spells a storm brewing for National.
The Taxpayer's Union Courier Pole has shown National drop nearly
three points to twenty eight point four percent, the lowest
poll for the party since it formed a government in
twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
It's while Labor is up zero.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Point three points to thirty four point four percent, The
Greens are up to ten point five percent, and Said
First down to nine point seven percent, Act up to
seven point five percent and Tipatimori up to three point
two percent. This all means that if an election was
held today, the center left bloc could form the next government,
(00:59):
although by a pretty small margin. The situation is being
compared to National's performance in the twenty twenty election, where
the party suffered one of the worst election losses in
its history. Today on the front Page, Zaid Herald political
editor Thomas Coglan is with us to break down.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
What the numbers mean and who could be on the
chopping block.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
Thomas tell me about why this poll might be different
to others.
Speaker 3 (01:29):
A couple of reasons This poll is the worst poll
from a major pulse that we've seen for the National Party.
Is the worst that they have had since mister Blackson
has been leader. It's the worst of hair darn since
Stuart Collins has predecessor his leader. It's incredibly low for
a party in government. My understanding is that it's the
lowest a National Party has ever polled whilst in government
(01:49):
since the late nineteen nineties when Junior Shipley got a
similar number. So it is incredibly low. Now the political
environment has changed a little bit. The government the National
parties in coalition with actor New Zealand First, and that
means that just structurally the National Party is probably going
to be polling at a lower number then National was
(02:12):
polling when John Key was Prime Minister and National was
the main I mean government, So that is just a
struggle change there is probably taking place. That's said, even
taking into them into account twenty eight percent around it
is a is an incredibly no low number and it
does come on the back of a terrible beak for
(02:33):
the Prime Minister. Everyone. That's basically the opinion of everyone.
Nicola Willis even went on z B and said that
it hadn't been a great week for the Prime Minister.
She could have said it hadn't been a great week
for the National Party. That she chose to say the
Prime minister, So everyone acknowledges it's been. It is interesting
and everyone acknowledges that. I think the real thing that
did it was his response to that question about the
(02:55):
American action in Iran. He said New Zealand supported any
actions it was him against the Iranian regime, obviously a
very horrible regime that New Zealand does actually support taking
many actions against. We do support taking many actions against
the Iranian regime. We've sanctioned and participated in sections against them.
But we do not support any actions against the Iranian regime,
(03:18):
which is the distinction. And when Chrystoper Latin was asked
about whether we'd support Carver bombing, for instance, he totally
fumbled his answer, and that was sort of thing is
pretty disastrous because obviously Carver bombing is widely accepted to
be a war crime, and obviously it shouldn't be that
difficult to say that New Zealand opposes war crimes because
we do. It's just a bipartisan thing of of of
(03:42):
of of New Zealand politics, that we're opposed to war
crimes SMD, most countries are, and there's an ability to
articulate articulate A simple position on that was was pretty
roundly panned.
Speaker 2 (03:53):
Do you think that the corporate speak and the kind
of fumbling through questions with pre rittian responses and phrases
have has really tripped him up this time because I
feel like you can go through a normal press conference
or a normal post cab by doing that, but when
it comes to, like you said, geopolitical tensions in the
(04:13):
Middle East and the fact that you either do support
or you don't support a war crime, that's really tripping
him up.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
Well, I think that that is one of the things
that's significant as well, which is just the thing that
there is a war in the Middle East is a
very serious one of the most serious foreign policy challenges
that this government has faced, or many governments will will
leave a face and there's an ability to kind of
Speaker's way talk his way through those challenges is really
(04:43):
quite remarkable, and it's a massive problem for him as
a leader. You have to be comfortable in that foreignera space,
and I think when you watched him on Monday, struggle
there and you think about other prime ministers that were
paidops just doing famously was it was a very good
sort of communicator of difficult issues and it shows It
showed that the wide gulf between his ability to sort
(05:06):
of explain his positioning on things and other time minister's
ability to do the same thing. It is not an
easy thing to do, but it certainly didn't have to
be as hard as eat as he made it look.
On Monday, do.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
You think on twenty eight percent people are there in
the caucus of the asking questions about your leader.
Speaker 5 (05:31):
No. I think what we're focused on is, yep, you're
going to ask the question today. Are you're feeling happy?
And a lot of people are still feeling like life
is very tough, very different question when you get to
the elections, because when you get to the election, you've
got a choice.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Do you want these.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Guys or do you want those guys?
Speaker 4 (05:46):
Why we're voting for Winston. He's in government with you
and he's mister popular.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
Well, you know, things come and go, not don't worry
about that. Well Luxon, No, no, he won't be going anyway.
He's doing very good job.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Okay, So you're support them one hundred percent of the election.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
Absolutely.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
Now people might be hearing about this being compared.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
To the blue blood bath of twenty twenty with Judith
Collins at the Helm. Why might we be striking those comparisons.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
Because if this poll were repeated on an election day,
and Nichola Willis again used to the MB interview this
morning on Nick Mills's show to say that these numbers
would be unacceupitable if they were repeated on polling day. Basically,
if they were repeated on polling day, you'd be seeing
one of the worst National Party defeats in its history.
The twenty twenty result was twenty five point five something
(06:41):
and this obviously number is about twenty eight slightly higher
than twenty eight, is about two and a half to
three points higher than that twenty twenty result. That twenty
twenty result was the second worst result of the National
Party have ever told I have ever notched up in
its entire history, which is more than eighty years old
the National Party. So it is an incredibly bad result.
(07:02):
It would be an incredibly bad result for the National Party.
You would see it was the enormous numbers of MPs
lose their jobs, which is why there's also significant because
those EMPs will be looking at that pole and thinking, right,
should I participate in rolling the leader in order to
save my skin? Because at the moment on this currentcy pole,
then I am out the job. So that is why
(07:23):
it's it's significant. I think also though, you have to
peer it with that Monday afternoon part in post care,
and you have to peer it with with his wider
inability to explain himself. Because if you were a if
you're a backbeach gingp and you were thinking, right, do
I do I participate in this coud, you'd be looking
at You'd be looking at those those public place and
(07:47):
events of the prime Minister and probably questioning his ability
to lead the party to to beat her polling in
the future.
Speaker 2 (07:55):
Do you think that Christopher Luxon has the ability to
admit that he is not the one that is to
be at the helm come election time? Do you think
he would actually resign as leader?
Speaker 3 (08:06):
A smooth question. I honestly haven't acclude. I'll be very honest,
I don't know. It is just that is something that
will be very deeply personal for him, and it was
really anyone gets us to where that he will make
that decision. He's certainly an ambitious person, a very ambitious
person who's gone through a lot of difficulty to get
(08:29):
to the job that he has achieved. It is the
great spinnacle of Korea, and one would imagine that he
wouldn't give it up lightly, because once we give it up,
it's neither ether ether unspect a game.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Well, I was only asking that because I was looking
around this morning and I was thinking what was Labor
polling out at when Andrew Little resigned ahead of the
twenty seventeen election. They were polling it around twenty three,
twenty four, famously handing over the leadership to j Cindra Adern,
who then picked up those numbers by the end of
the month up into the mid forties. So is the
(09:03):
problem here, though, really that there is no one there's
no dis cinder in the wings.
Speaker 3 (09:08):
For national there is an obvious center in the wings.
And I think I think just Ender doing sort of
casts a bit of a shadow over New Zealand politics
because I think for many years now into the future,
when never a party conforming, poor League will always be
looking for the just Cender. And what may Juster doing
special is that is that there really was only one
(09:30):
Just Cender, you know, even even John Key, who was
the only politician in recent times it was of similar popularity.
Was quite a different as parts of the leaders to
the leadership was much more obvious. I mean, he achieved
the leadership sooner, but it was a much clearer part
that he hadn't, rather than the sort of just Cender,
which was almost like flicking on the light switch, switching
all of a sudden she was there and the polling
(09:50):
was good. There is no Just Cender in the National
Party at the moment, but that doesn't mean that that
there won't be a change. But there's no obvious candidate
and that probably does help mister luxm stay in this position.
But it is more there are other challenges with There
(10:11):
are mainly the fact that actually mainly the fact that
the National government is the governments.
Speaker 6 (10:25):
The Prime Minister has had a challenging week and I
actually respect him being vulnerable enough to say, well, actually
I must spoke during the week, and there has been
a lot of focus on that. I always think it's
good when people do admit they didn't get something quite right.
We are living in a very complex and difficult time
and he is being asked to give yes no answers
(10:49):
to questions that are pretty subtle, have a lot of complexity,
and he hasn't been able to give yes no answers.
In the media obviously have highlighted that, and he's admitted
that he spoke on an occasion. So I don't think
it's been a great week for the Prime minister.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
So Winston Peters has described the poll as not good
but not the end of the world. You can see
why the Nats but also their coalition partners might be
a little bit more optimistic than most. I heard Judith
Collins on Herold Now this morning as well saying that, look,
there are other things happening around in the world. Now,
it's a difficult time, et cetera, et cetera. But do
(11:27):
you think that everyone in Parliament feels this way, And
you mentioned the back benches before as well, they be
really scratching their heads at this point.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
Yeah, they will be on those numbers. National would lose
a lot of seats and that could mean that could
mean a large hundred MPs without the job, could be
senior in peace without the job, and they would also
struggle for list placings. Now Paul Goldsmith is on the list.
He's a senior MP. Nicola Willis is on the list.
She's the National Public Deputy. Chris Bishop as in a
(11:55):
marginal seat huts out on Twitter Nationals on twenty eight percent.
It probably lose that seat and he'd had to get
them on the list. So there's a senior in piece
who could really struggle to find a job coming to
and that does create instability.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
Now, there were whisperings of a possible coup last year,
late last year.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Actually, what do you make of them? And will the
whisperings slowly get louder this year.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
After this pole?
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Well, assumainly, I don't think this pole is going to
help all the springs, but it is example whether it
would make them worse. I was here when when the
Simon Bridges, Todd Malla Judith Colin's kind of situation happened,
and they were very slow moving things, and and then
(12:44):
and then it all and then it all, it all
sort of ticks off, I think. So there's that famous
Hemingway quote about how someone goes broke, they go broke
slowly and then suddenly, So what do.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
You make of Nikola Willis's comments about this poll and
the wording I suppose.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I think I think it shows that everyone acknowledges that
beings a very pretty bad but I think you know,
you can read those those remarks out of way. She
acknowledges that it's been a bad week, which is realistic,
but also there's tough all run the loot, so so
really it feels like it's when you thing can happen.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
What is the significance of this being a Courier pole?
Speaker 3 (13:31):
So Curier is the National Putn's pulse and it has
been the National Party's pulster for a long time. They
also do the national part of internal polls, so this
is a textpayers Union Curier pulse. It's separate. But because
the SECURIA does the National Party internal pulse, you can
you can bet that the polls that the National Party
gets internally their internal poles that they used to make
(13:53):
the decision that are very similar to these numbers. And
that's what MPCE has been telling me, that their internal
numbers are very similar.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
What else have mp has been telling you? And generally
I guess from from a from an audience perspective and
for someone who doesn't actually isn't in the beehive every
day like you are, because there are good relationships between
journalists and MPs and their officers and everything as well. Hey,
how much actually actual talking goes on before one of
these poles come out.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Well, you know, we talk to the EMPs all the time,
We have we give, we talk about a number of
things all the time. It's sort of the job of
the gallery journalists to keep those channels of communication open
and just to listen to what MPs are saying about
what this happening in parlierment and certainly in ps m
ps no one thinks this as a good pole. But
(14:41):
this is quite clearly not but but but the view
from the MPs that I've spoken to, which is a
large nunder of MPs. But but you know, you can't
ring around all of them. That the view from the
MPs is that is that it really is a case
for chrystoph laxing to decide their own the future, and
not a case fuller rolling him because obviously he is
(15:02):
the prime minister, it is an election year and actually
rolling him and wielding the knife a big, quite significant step.
So the question is whether he comes to the conclusion
that he can no longer go on. But there is
you know, there is a There is quite a big
thing to think about, and it's not there that he
is doing at apartment. He's been silent, he's not public
basing today. We don't know whether he's weighing up his
(15:23):
future today or whether he's just enjoying a nice Friday
somewhere with his family.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
Noah, really, thanks for joining us, Thomas, no worries.
Speaker 3 (15:34):
Have good weekend.
Speaker 1 (15:38):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
You can read more about today's stories and extensive news
coverage at enzidhrald dot co dot enz The Front Page
is hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels. Caine Dickie
is our studio operator, Richard Martin, our producer and.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Editor, and our executive producer is Jane Ye. Follow the
Front Page on the iheartapp or wherever you get your podcasts,
and join us next time for another look beyond the headlines.
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