January 22, 2025 • 21 mins
The political year is ready to kick off.
While Prime Minister Christopher Luxon may have got an early start with his Cabinet reshuffle, over the next coming days we’ll see a flurry of party caucus retreats, state of the nation speeches, and the annual visit to Ratana as politicians return from their summer holidays.
And while central government has plenty to tend to this year – local politicians are preparing for the country to return to the polls in October to vote for our councils and mayors.
Today on The Front Page we're joined by Newstalk ZB political editor Jason Walls for a preview of the year ahead in politics, and Newstalk ZB news director Michael Sergel lets us know what to expect when it comes to this year's local elections.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The
political year is ready to kick off. While Prime Minister
Christopher Luxon may have got an early start with his
cabinet reshuffle. Over the next coming days, we'll see a
(00:26):
flurry of party caucus retreats, State of the Nation's speeches,
and the annual visit to Ratna as politicians return from
their summer holidays. And while central government has plenty to
tend to this year, local politicians are preparing for the
country to return to the polls in October to vote
for our councils and mayor's we'll discuss that later with
(00:50):
Newstalk zb News director Michael Sergel, but first on the
Front Page, we're joined by news Talk ZEDB political editor
Jason Walls for a preview of the year. Head in politics. Jason,
what are some of the key political events and bills
that are on your calendar this year?
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, I mean the first one. I mean, you can't
really talk about twenty twenty five without talking about the
Treaty Principal's Bill. So we're going to have about six
months of Treaty Principles, Bill submissions before the Select Committee.
So every single week we're going to be hearing from
new people, new positions on a bill. And if you
think this is finished just because it is being finished
(01:32):
in the House, it's finished its first reading, you're solely mistaken.
This is going to be one of the stories of
the year, and then it is going to be voted
down in the second reading. So ultimately this will all
come to nought. But it's going to be a fascinating
look inside New Zealand politics and race relations in this country,
So that would be one that I'd definitely be looking
out for. Another one this year, Probably the headline event
(01:53):
will be the transition of power from Winston Peters to
David Seymour when it comes to the Deputy prime ministership.
It's going to be fascinating exercise because we've never seen
anything like this before. We don't know whether we go
back to Government House and watch them take a new
oath or if it just happens at the stroke of midnight.
We don't really know that. It's going to be an
interesting one to watch. The budget every year is one
(02:14):
to watch. This is probably going to be the most
boring budget we've had in a significant amount of time,
because Nicola Willis has suggested, well not suggested, she's outright
said that there is just no money in the kitty
for any new initiatives. They've got a waifer thin operating allowance,
which is essentially the amount of new money that they
chuck on every budget, so don't expect anything too exciting.
(02:35):
Then we've also got to the return of Madame and Davidson,
who has been away on sickly from Parliament after her
cancer diagnosis and then she's been away for treatment, and
how that impacts the Green Party and the fundament mental
strategy that they have in the House and outside. And
then of course the Prime Minister's Asia pivot. He's going
to go to China this year, he's indicated as well
(02:56):
as India. So quite a lot on the political agenda.
But the best thing about Paul politics is that we
probably will mention these things only in passing at the
end of the year, because there'll be other things that
come up that we have no idea what they are
or what they'll entail. That's the beauty of politics.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Prime Minister Chrisph Laxen faced criticism from all sides near
the end of last year about his leadership and his
approach with the media. I believe, Jason, you actually said
that we saw an absolute abject disaster in his media performances.
Do you think he's been dwelling on that over the summer?
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Yes, I think. I say I used that phrase in
reference to his interview with Jack Tame, rather than every
single one of his media performances, and I think that
one was an abject disaster just because he was unable
to articulate his government's vision and position on a number
of things and reverted back to talking points. I think
he said the phrase what I'll say to you is
(03:47):
twenty six times in one interview, so I think over
the summer he will be reflecting on that. He might
have even done some media training over the summer break
if he was smart. I think that's exactly what he
needs to do. He needs to refocus and get off
his talking point page and start talking like a real
human being. And I think if he starts to do that,
he'll start to bring the public along a lot better.
(04:08):
On the leadership front. I think he's been doing fine
so far. I mean, he's had to manage a coalition
as well, a coalition of three parties. That's never been
done in New Zealand politics. It's just the media side
of things. And if he nails that, if it even
improves a little bit, I think it would be a
good year for Christopher Luxon.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
I what I say to you, Jay, You're saying a
lot of things to me, but you're surely we actually
answered to be honest, and this is actually kind of
important to actually if you want to have a conversation
about economics and the plan and what we're trying to do.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Do you think we'll see some changes in the coalition's
dynamics after May thirty first, when David Seymour of course
takes over as Deputy per I think.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
There will be some cosmetic changes in terms of the
way that things are going forward. For example, David Seymour
will take over from the Prime Minister in the House
when the Prime Minister is away, so that's pretty much
every Thursday. But that will be one of the main
things because again going back to the Prime Minister's leadership,
one of the things that he did well is he
did a rock solid and air tight coalition agreement, which
(05:05):
means that even if there is a change, which we're
going to see that has been very well telegraphed from
the beginning, and all of the policies, all of the
commitments remain the same, So cosmetic changes maybe. David Seymour
and Winston Peters are both very outspoken, and I don't
think that's going to change on either side when they
essentially change roles here. But I wouldn't envisage it being
too different than it has been the past year and
(05:26):
a half.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Treasury opened up the country's books right before Christmas and
it was a bit more Stephen King than Mills and Boone. Hey,
with the economic outlook looking so grim, how do you
think that will shape the government's priorities? Oh?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Excellent metaphor. By the way, there was a fantastical worded question.
I love that one.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
You could have laughed after I said, listen.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I'm here to talk politics, not laugh at your jokes.
I think it makes me less professional if I laugh
at a question. But in seriousness, I think that it's
there's a lot that they probably want to do that
they won't be able to do now. The problem is that,
as I alluded to before, they've got this waf of
thin operating allowance, which means that any new initiatives they
simply won't be able to do with new money because
(06:05):
there's just nothing there to add insult to injury. The
government's tax revenue has taken a massive hit because of
the economic situation that we're in, so they are in
between a rock and a hard place economically, which means
that Nicola Willis has got the hardest job in politics.
I mean, forget the opposition being the hardest job in politics,
try being a finance minister off the back of a recession.
She does have the fact that interest rates are coming
(06:26):
down will be a bit of a boon for her,
but at the end of the day, that's the Reserve
Bank and she can't have her cake and eat it too.
She can't consistently blame the Reserve Bank when she was
in opposition for keeping interest rates high. But as soon
as they start coming down, start talking about how that's
a win for the government, people will start to see
through that. What Nicola Willis has to do now is
make some very tough decisions when it comes to cutting
(06:47):
spending within the public service. And I think that you know, frankly,
public spending got out of control the last couple of
years of the Labor government, and it needs to be
rained in. But it's not an easy task to do,
and she's going to have to cut deep in some
areas to actually be able to just keep the government running.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
You've already touched on the Treaty Principal's Bill, which of
course will be a headline this year, but it's dead
in the water. So the government do you see it
actually even trying to reset Crown multi relations at this
point or is that ship sailed well?
Speaker 2 (07:17):
I mean, the government will say that it is about
outcomes for Marty rather than something like a policy like this.
They will say that what we're doing for Marty is
we're helping Marty get into housing, We're helping reduce the
Marti unemployment rate, we're helping with some of the appalling
stats that we have around healthcare for Marty. And that's
their focus. The Treaty Principle's Bill. It's ultimately meaningless because
(07:38):
the Government will not be vote well, the National Party
and New Zealand First will not be voting for it
in the second reading and you know they haven't. Well,
no other party apart from the Act Party will as
far as we know at this stage, so in so
far as the fact that you know that is what
the government is planning to do. They are very outcome orientated,
and I think that's commendable for them to have those
(07:59):
outcomes or those goals, but the outcomes need to match
the rhetoric. And if they can match the outcomes to
the rhetoric, I think that we're probably in a good place.
But if they are not, and some of these key
statistics for MARTI continue to go backwards or even stagnate,
then they're going to have a problem because they've lost
the pr war and they're going to be losing the
policy war as well.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
I do spend a lot of time reflecting on the
accidents that I take and whether I'm the best person
to be doing this job and you know, how I'm
navigating it. And I don't just do that alone with
these thoughts kind of knocking around my head in the
deed of night, but also talk to a lot of
people who I admire own trusts, which includes people who've
been in this institution in the past and those who
are so far removed from it that I think they
(08:42):
have a very valuable perspective. I can tell you that
I feel confident that we've done the best that we
possibly could with those circumstances, with our values as are guiding.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Starts and Labor's gearing up to start getting their policies
out there, and the Greens can't possibly have a worse
year than last year. I suppose what are your predictions
for the opposition parties?
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Well, my prediction is never count out the Greens when
it comes to having a worse year than they've had before.
They could come out and do something way worse. Could
they could blow us all away with another year of incompetence.
But you would have to be pretty bad to have
a worse year than they had last year, So the
bar is extremely low. I would say the bar is
pretty much on the floor. So all the Greens need
to do is come out with some even some really
(09:24):
just quintessential Green policy to shift the narrative a little bit.
And I think that they'll be in a position to
do that when Manama is back to take a little
bit of stress off Chloe Swarbrick, who I think, even
though the Greens had a really really chaotically bad year,
Chloe Swarbrick actually nailed her colors to the mass in
terms of her leadership, and I think for in a
lot of places she handled it quite well. She's talked
very openly about diversifying the Greens base. When I spoke
(09:47):
to her before the end of last year, she was
talking about going to see West Coast minors to try
and bring them into the Green Party fold, which is ambitious.
But this is the woman who started her tenure as
co leader by saying she wants to overtake the Labor
Party as the main opposition party in New Zealand, which
is incredibly ambitious. But you've got to be ambitious in opposition.
That's all you have is hope and ambition and maybe
(10:08):
sprinkle a couple of policies on there as well.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Isn't that a bit James Shaw esque? It is?
Speaker 2 (10:13):
I mean, she's taken James Shaw's vision and ran to
a place where I don't think that he ever thought
he would go. I mean, James Shaw, at the heart
of it, was a pragmatic man and he would have
never said anything like we're going to overtake the Labor
Party because he knows, frankly, it's just not going to happen.
Bar something chaotic in the Labor Party. And if that happens,
it's bad news for the Greens anyway, because they need
(10:34):
the Labor Party to form a coalition to get into government.
So the Greens have got a bit of soul searching
to do this year. But as I say, bars on
the ground for them in terms of the Labor Party.
I mean, you can't talk about the Labour Party without
talking about tax. That is going to be a big
focus for them this year. If it's going to beat
the capital gains horse, are they going to flog that
horse again, or if they're going to saddle up more
(10:54):
to the Greens and talk about a wealth tax. That's
all questions that they have. But you don't want to
pick early. You can talk about policy, but you should
probably wait till an election year to start unveiling some
otherwise it becomes quite stale.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
And what are your boldest political predictions across the board
this year.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
I don't know if it's bold, but I am predicting
a clean transition of power between David Seymour and Winston.
I think the thing that Winston does well as he
sticks to an agreement. He is the king of a coalition.
He knows if it's written down in the agreement, they're
going to stick to it, and he knows that if
any party falter from that, they'll be given hell by
the man himself. So I think it's going to be
a clean transition of power there. As a journalist, I'm
(11:34):
hoping for a little bit of Argibarji, but that's just
because I like something fun to write about. I actually
think it probably is good for the country that we
would have a good, clean transition of power. I think
the government will be forced to do something quite radical
with its finances. I think the boring budget is going
to be a little bit more exciting, not because they're
going to throw a whole bunch of lollies around, but
they're going to have to announce some deep systemic cuts
(11:55):
into some areas because you just can't continue to be
he sent to write government reading the way that this
government is in terms of the finances. There needs to
be some tough decisions made and they need to be
quite bold in the way that they cut things or
else that future generations of New Zealanders are going to
be feeling the effects for long to come. So I'm
expecting something bold at some point don't know what it is,
(12:15):
but we might see it in the budget. I think
now it's just about capitalizing on some of the wins
and making sure the rubber hits the road from early on.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Thanks for joining us, Jason, No problem at all. For
the majority of the country aside from Todonger, local council
elections will be running across September and October. To discuss
(12:45):
what to expect, we're joined now by Newstalk ZB News
director and local government reporter Michael Sergel. Michael, I can
just predict now what the local elections will be about,
and that's rates, right.
Speaker 5 (13:01):
Oh, absolutely, yeah. Every local council in the country has
been hiking rates higher than inflation, some raising them by
like five or six times more than inflation. We've had Gore, Central, Hawks, Baying, Napier,
Upper hut Widoer, Wellington, Westland, Central Otago, Puddydoer and Dnedin
all hiking local rates by between seventeen point five and
twenty one point four percent. These are really high rates
rises by anyone's books. A lot of factors to consider here,
(13:23):
the cost of government reforms, changing government policies, particularly around
freshwater and three waters. Also licensing fees not increasing, and
also lots and lots of increases that councils just can't avoid.
I've had a look at some of these reports, and
I mean the cost of bridges going up thirty eight
percent in three years, sewage systems going up thirty percent
in three years, roads thirty percent in three years, water
(13:43):
supplies thirty percent in three years, are pool chemicals twenty
five percent in two years, food for dogs at the
local pound twenty percent to two years, quarrying ten point
seven percent in just one year, concrete twelve point five
percent in a year, sand for pavements fifteen percent in
a year, funger side up thirty one percent in just
one year, fertilizes up fifty seven percent in a year,
insurance premiums up about a third, and interest rates also
(14:06):
increasing lately as well.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
So they really don't have any other option other than
rates rises, Right, will they be though? The death knell
for mayors? Do you think?
Speaker 5 (14:15):
Yeah? I mean it's a difficult one. I mean, I
mean there's no getting around the fact that the councils
will have to be charging more and actually doing less.
And I think that the big question will be, you
know what they cut and what they don't cut. I mean,
we've had lots of debates recently, this huge debate in
Auckland and Order to do about whether or not to
move from weekly to fortnightly rubbish collections. That's something that
many other cities are already doing. Also the debates about
(14:37):
rubbish bins, removing the local rubbish bins from the parks,
letting the grass grow longer, and if you've been to
a local park lately but the grass is pretty well,
haven't the grass is pretty long. I mean they're talking
about inches longer than they used to be. The boom
debate and live in lots of councils no longer mow
the burns. Also the ongoing debate about cycleway speed bumps,
pedestrian crossings that really get people going. And I suppose
(14:58):
what do you cut and what don't?
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Forty three councils will be having referendums on keeping Muorti wards,
which will be voted on at the elections. Do you
think that will color how the local elections go?
Speaker 5 (15:11):
Yeah, I think definitely. I mean, obviously we had these
forty five councils establishing or moving to establish mighty wards
after that twenty twenty one law change. Then we had
the new government come in and say, you know, we
have to hold a public referendum in twenty twenty five
to keep them. So forty three of the forty five
councils voting to keep them, and we had the two
councils that decided not to keep them, a Kipita District
Council and Upper Hut and we had quite angry debates there.
(15:32):
But these votes are going to cost councils millions of
dollars and those that support Mighty Wards, so that's a
waste of money because most of the councils sort of
overwhelmingly support the Mighty Wards. And then on the other side,
we've got people saying that's a waste of money because
the councils should have just accepted that and maybe voted
not to have a public vote and voted to scrap them. So,
you know, definitely a lot of frustration from I suppose
(15:53):
both sides of the debate here about the fact that
there are there is even you know this many councils
deciding to have referendum on this issue.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Now we can't get into all sixty seven city and
district councils and their individual issues. I wish we could
mike when I know that you'd love to. But are
there any other major concerns across the board that affect
a few of them?
Speaker 5 (16:12):
Yeah, I mean, I think definitely it comes down to
rates primarily, and the question of what we cut and
what we don't. I mean, rates are going to go up,
They're probably going to keep going up higher than inflation,
just because the costs that councils are facing keeps increasing.
But the question is what do they cut and what
don't they cut? And I think there's no getting around
the fact that we're going to end up having councils
(16:33):
doing less and charging us more. You guys have given
me a lot of feedback.
Speaker 6 (16:40):
Some of it's quite supportive, some of it's quite negative.
Speaker 5 (16:43):
There's some of the shows that some of you people
are nuts.
Speaker 6 (16:46):
Here we go, you arefinably disappointing. It's just for me, Well,
you're a bit of a dick, mate, Alex Ratzor says,
my rates ball keeps going up. Side was my desire
to leave Aucklane, New Zealand too well, Goodbye Top Bounder,
Wellington and gone.
Speaker 5 (17:01):
Up twenty five percent, Darth vaded.
Speaker 6 (17:04):
I used to dislike you, but now I think I
like you. Mayor Brown well got on your dar's vaded.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Looking at candidates, Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown has bounced back
over the last year after his i'm going to say,
disastrous handling of the Auckland floods. Are there any candidates
coming for his job or is he pretty safe at
the moment.
Speaker 5 (17:26):
It's a really interesting race. I mean polling from about
eight months ago showing some bridges is about the probably
the most popular potential candidate. We're still not sure if
he would stand. Wayne Brown in second place, he formerly
hasn't decided whether or not he will run for me. Obviously,
his popularity has sort of recovered a bit after taking
that major hit now almost two years ago with his
(17:46):
handling of the floods. And then Paula Bennett also very popular.
She's confirmed she's she's thinking about it's also telling us
she's very seriously considering it, deepening. Mere Desley Simpson also
very popular, sort of across the political spectrum, but all
in cations are she won't stand. And they're also seeing
a number of the regular candidates starting to put their
name forward. Again, the conservative Ted Johnson confirming in recent
(18:08):
days that he will definitely be running as well.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
And Wellington Mayor Tory Farno probably the most at risk,
isn't she.
Speaker 5 (18:13):
Oh, definitely yes, and I mean you only have to
listen to some of her recent interviews to see the
situation she's in. We've got a number of candidates putting
their name forward. Ray Hung has told us he's definitely standing,
quite an outspoken critic of the mayor, got an ice
cream shop owner Carl Typhon Bucker and an entrepreneur Luke Pearson.
I've got a number of councilors considering running as well.
A number of left wing figures have confirmed they're definitely
(18:36):
not running. And Mark Sainsbury, who many people will know
from TV and radio, he's been quashing rumors that he
might stand. Definitely. It's going to come down to probably
two main key issues, the Wellington Airports hearsl and the
Golden Mile talking point as well, and also those ongoing
race rises the city has been facing.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
What are some other councils you'll be keeping an eye on.
I'm thinking Ben Bell down and Gore or not b
Clark and.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
In Bicago, Yeah, definitely, I mean gor Mia. Ben the
country's youngest mayor, has really faced a really tough time
in the last three years and often fraught relationship with
both counselors and the council staff. Obviously that particularly that
issue with the CEO in vicargo with Nobby Clark. He's
faced a lot of controversy for using the N word
at a public event, using racist and homophobic slurs during
(19:20):
a TV interview with a comedy show, and then over
his conduct at a public event fulling heart surgery as well.
The other interesting one christ Church, christ Church mayor film
major facing a challenge from Sarah Templeton. He's promised to
keep his rates rises under four percent. At the last election,
Ben delivered rates rises of six point four and nine
point nine. I don't know how good at maths you are,
but both of those numbers are over four So so
(19:44):
facing that challenge obviously things a bit more complex than
perhaps he imagined they were heading to the last election.
Also important to note Todonga won't be having any election
this year. Marhi Dreysdale will remain mayor until twenty twenty eight,
just to let that new council sort of bed After
the commissioners were replaced with the council.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
And finally, Michael, we love a prediction here on the
Front Page. What's your big prediction for how these elections
might go.
Speaker 5 (20:11):
Yeah, well, we already saw a big swing to the
right at the last election three years ago, something we've
been seeing in local and central government elections right around
the world over the last three years in the sort
of pandemic post pandemic era. Since then, we've had some
real cost of living pressures with high inflation driven by
the non tradable inflation like rates. So the things that
people can't avoid not paying, and rates are a big
(20:33):
one of those. And so we're probably going to see
more support for candidates who promise to contain rates increases,
even if that means further spending cutbacks. Expect rates increases
to be a really big issue at this year's election.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Thanks for joining us, Michael.
Speaker 5 (20:47):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at Ensad Herald dot MZ. The Front Page is produced
by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also a
sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
Subscribe to the.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
Front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,
and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
Kyoda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. The
political year is ready to kick off. While Prime Minister
Christopher Luxon may have got an early start with his
cabinet reshuffle. Over the next coming days, we'll see a
(00:26):
flurry of party caucus retreats, State of the Nation's speeches,
and the annual visit to Ratna as politicians return from
their summer holidays. And while central government has plenty to
tend to this year, local politicians are preparing for the
country to return to the polls in October to vote
for our councils and mayor's we'll discuss that later with
(00:50):
Newstalk zb News director Michael Sergel, but first on the
Front Page, we're joined by news Talk ZEDB political editor
Jason Walls for a preview of the year. Head in politics. Jason,
what are some of the key political events and bills
that are on your calendar this year?
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Yeah, I mean the first one. I mean, you can't
really talk about twenty twenty five without talking about the
Treaty Principal's Bill. So we're going to have about six
months of Treaty Principles, Bill submissions before the Select Committee.
So every single week we're going to be hearing from
new people, new positions on a bill. And if you
think this is finished just because it is being finished
(01:32):
in the House, it's finished its first reading, you're solely mistaken.
This is going to be one of the stories of
the year, and then it is going to be voted
down in the second reading. So ultimately this will all
come to nought. But it's going to be a fascinating
look inside New Zealand politics and race relations in this country,
So that would be one that I'd definitely be looking
out for. Another one this year, Probably the headline event
(01:53):
will be the transition of power from Winston Peters to
David Seymour when it comes to the Deputy prime ministership.
It's going to be fascinating exercise because we've never seen
anything like this before. We don't know whether we go
back to Government House and watch them take a new
oath or if it just happens at the stroke of midnight.
We don't really know that. It's going to be an
interesting one to watch. The budget every year is one
(02:14):
to watch. This is probably going to be the most
boring budget we've had in a significant amount of time,
because Nicola Willis has suggested, well not suggested, she's outright
said that there is just no money in the kitty
for any new initiatives. They've got a waifer thin operating allowance,
which is essentially the amount of new money that they
chuck on every budget, so don't expect anything too exciting.
(02:35):
Then we've also got to the return of Madame and Davidson,
who has been away on sickly from Parliament after her
cancer diagnosis and then she's been away for treatment, and
how that impacts the Green Party and the fundament mental
strategy that they have in the House and outside. And
then of course the Prime Minister's Asia pivot. He's going
to go to China this year, he's indicated as well
(02:56):
as India. So quite a lot on the political agenda.
But the best thing about Paul politics is that we
probably will mention these things only in passing at the
end of the year, because there'll be other things that
come up that we have no idea what they are
or what they'll entail. That's the beauty of politics.
Speaker 1 (03:10):
Prime Minister Chrisph Laxen faced criticism from all sides near
the end of last year about his leadership and his
approach with the media. I believe, Jason, you actually said
that we saw an absolute abject disaster in his media performances.
Do you think he's been dwelling on that over the summer?
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Yes, I think. I say I used that phrase in
reference to his interview with Jack Tame, rather than every
single one of his media performances, and I think that
one was an abject disaster just because he was unable
to articulate his government's vision and position on a number
of things and reverted back to talking points. I think
he said the phrase what I'll say to you is
(03:47):
twenty six times in one interview, so I think over
the summer he will be reflecting on that. He might
have even done some media training over the summer break
if he was smart. I think that's exactly what he
needs to do. He needs to refocus and get off
his talking point page and start talking like a real
human being. And I think if he starts to do that,
he'll start to bring the public along a lot better.
(04:08):
On the leadership front. I think he's been doing fine
so far. I mean, he's had to manage a coalition
as well, a coalition of three parties. That's never been
done in New Zealand politics. It's just the media side
of things. And if he nails that, if it even
improves a little bit, I think it would be a
good year for Christopher Luxon.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
I what I say to you, Jay, You're saying a
lot of things to me, but you're surely we actually
answered to be honest, and this is actually kind of
important to actually if you want to have a conversation
about economics and the plan and what we're trying to do.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Do you think we'll see some changes in the coalition's
dynamics after May thirty first, when David Seymour of course
takes over as Deputy per I think.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
There will be some cosmetic changes in terms of the
way that things are going forward. For example, David Seymour
will take over from the Prime Minister in the House
when the Prime Minister is away, so that's pretty much
every Thursday. But that will be one of the main
things because again going back to the Prime Minister's leadership,
one of the things that he did well is he
did a rock solid and air tight coalition agreement, which
(05:05):
means that even if there is a change, which we're
going to see that has been very well telegraphed from
the beginning, and all of the policies, all of the
commitments remain the same, So cosmetic changes maybe. David Seymour
and Winston Peters are both very outspoken, and I don't
think that's going to change on either side when they
essentially change roles here. But I wouldn't envisage it being
too different than it has been the past year and
(05:26):
a half.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Treasury opened up the country's books right before Christmas and
it was a bit more Stephen King than Mills and Boone. Hey,
with the economic outlook looking so grim, how do you
think that will shape the government's priorities? Oh?
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Excellent metaphor. By the way, there was a fantastical worded question.
I love that one.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
You could have laughed after I said, listen.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
I'm here to talk politics, not laugh at your jokes.
I think it makes me less professional if I laugh
at a question. But in seriousness, I think that it's
there's a lot that they probably want to do that
they won't be able to do now. The problem is that,
as I alluded to before, they've got this waf of
thin operating allowance, which means that any new initiatives they
simply won't be able to do with new money because
(06:05):
there's just nothing there to add insult to injury. The
government's tax revenue has taken a massive hit because of
the economic situation that we're in, so they are in
between a rock and a hard place economically, which means
that Nicola Willis has got the hardest job in politics.
I mean, forget the opposition being the hardest job in politics,
try being a finance minister off the back of a recession.
She does have the fact that interest rates are coming
(06:26):
down will be a bit of a boon for her,
but at the end of the day, that's the Reserve
Bank and she can't have her cake and eat it too.
She can't consistently blame the Reserve Bank when she was
in opposition for keeping interest rates high. But as soon
as they start coming down, start talking about how that's
a win for the government, people will start to see
through that. What Nicola Willis has to do now is
make some very tough decisions when it comes to cutting
(06:47):
spending within the public service. And I think that you know, frankly,
public spending got out of control the last couple of
years of the Labor government, and it needs to be
rained in. But it's not an easy task to do,
and she's going to have to cut deep in some
areas to actually be able to just keep the government running.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
You've already touched on the Treaty Principal's Bill, which of
course will be a headline this year, but it's dead
in the water. So the government do you see it
actually even trying to reset Crown multi relations at this
point or is that ship sailed well?
Speaker 2 (07:17):
I mean, the government will say that it is about
outcomes for Marty rather than something like a policy like this.
They will say that what we're doing for Marty is
we're helping Marty get into housing, We're helping reduce the
Marti unemployment rate, we're helping with some of the appalling
stats that we have around healthcare for Marty. And that's
their focus. The Treaty Principle's Bill. It's ultimately meaningless because
(07:38):
the Government will not be vote well, the National Party
and New Zealand First will not be voting for it
in the second reading and you know they haven't. Well,
no other party apart from the Act Party will as
far as we know at this stage, so in so
far as the fact that you know that is what
the government is planning to do. They are very outcome orientated,
and I think that's commendable for them to have those
(07:59):
outcomes or those goals, but the outcomes need to match
the rhetoric. And if they can match the outcomes to
the rhetoric, I think that we're probably in a good place.
But if they are not, and some of these key
statistics for MARTI continue to go backwards or even stagnate,
then they're going to have a problem because they've lost
the pr war and they're going to be losing the
policy war as well.
Speaker 4 (08:22):
I do spend a lot of time reflecting on the
accidents that I take and whether I'm the best person
to be doing this job and you know, how I'm
navigating it. And I don't just do that alone with
these thoughts kind of knocking around my head in the
deed of night, but also talk to a lot of
people who I admire own trusts, which includes people who've
been in this institution in the past and those who
are so far removed from it that I think they
(08:42):
have a very valuable perspective. I can tell you that
I feel confident that we've done the best that we
possibly could with those circumstances, with our values as are guiding.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Starts and Labor's gearing up to start getting their policies
out there, and the Greens can't possibly have a worse
year than last year. I suppose what are your predictions
for the opposition parties?
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Well, my prediction is never count out the Greens when
it comes to having a worse year than they've had before.
They could come out and do something way worse. Could
they could blow us all away with another year of incompetence.
But you would have to be pretty bad to have
a worse year than they had last year, So the
bar is extremely low. I would say the bar is
pretty much on the floor. So all the Greens need
to do is come out with some even some really
(09:24):
just quintessential Green policy to shift the narrative a little bit.
And I think that they'll be in a position to
do that when Manama is back to take a little
bit of stress off Chloe Swarbrick, who I think, even
though the Greens had a really really chaotically bad year,
Chloe Swarbrick actually nailed her colors to the mass in
terms of her leadership, and I think for in a
lot of places she handled it quite well. She's talked
very openly about diversifying the Greens base. When I spoke
(09:47):
to her before the end of last year, she was
talking about going to see West Coast minors to try
and bring them into the Green Party fold, which is ambitious.
But this is the woman who started her tenure as
co leader by saying she wants to overtake the Labor
Party as the main opposition party in New Zealand, which
is incredibly ambitious. But you've got to be ambitious in opposition.
That's all you have is hope and ambition and maybe
(10:08):
sprinkle a couple of policies on there as well.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Isn't that a bit James Shaw esque? It is?
Speaker 2 (10:13):
I mean, she's taken James Shaw's vision and ran to
a place where I don't think that he ever thought
he would go. I mean, James Shaw, at the heart
of it, was a pragmatic man and he would have
never said anything like we're going to overtake the Labor
Party because he knows, frankly, it's just not going to happen.
Bar something chaotic in the Labor Party. And if that happens,
it's bad news for the Greens anyway, because they need
(10:34):
the Labor Party to form a coalition to get into government.
So the Greens have got a bit of soul searching
to do this year. But as I say, bars on
the ground for them in terms of the Labor Party.
I mean, you can't talk about the Labour Party without
talking about tax. That is going to be a big
focus for them this year. If it's going to beat
the capital gains horse, are they going to flog that
horse again, or if they're going to saddle up more
(10:54):
to the Greens and talk about a wealth tax. That's
all questions that they have. But you don't want to
pick early. You can talk about policy, but you should
probably wait till an election year to start unveiling some
otherwise it becomes quite stale.
Speaker 1 (11:06):
And what are your boldest political predictions across the board
this year.
Speaker 2 (11:11):
I don't know if it's bold, but I am predicting
a clean transition of power between David Seymour and Winston.
I think the thing that Winston does well as he
sticks to an agreement. He is the king of a coalition.
He knows if it's written down in the agreement, they're
going to stick to it, and he knows that if
any party falter from that, they'll be given hell by
the man himself. So I think it's going to be
a clean transition of power there. As a journalist, I'm
(11:34):
hoping for a little bit of Argibarji, but that's just
because I like something fun to write about. I actually
think it probably is good for the country that we
would have a good, clean transition of power. I think
the government will be forced to do something quite radical
with its finances. I think the boring budget is going
to be a little bit more exciting, not because they're
going to throw a whole bunch of lollies around, but
they're going to have to announce some deep systemic cuts
(11:55):
into some areas because you just can't continue to be
he sent to write government reading the way that this
government is in terms of the finances. There needs to
be some tough decisions made and they need to be
quite bold in the way that they cut things or
else that future generations of New Zealanders are going to
be feeling the effects for long to come. So I'm
expecting something bold at some point don't know what it is,
(12:15):
but we might see it in the budget. I think
now it's just about capitalizing on some of the wins
and making sure the rubber hits the road from early on.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Thanks for joining us, Jason, No problem at all. For
the majority of the country aside from Todonger, local council
elections will be running across September and October. To discuss
(12:45):
what to expect, we're joined now by Newstalk ZB News
director and local government reporter Michael Sergel. Michael, I can
just predict now what the local elections will be about,
and that's rates, right.
Speaker 5 (13:01):
Oh, absolutely, yeah. Every local council in the country has
been hiking rates higher than inflation, some raising them by
like five or six times more than inflation. We've had Gore, Central, Hawks, Baying, Napier,
Upper hut Widoer, Wellington, Westland, Central Otago, Puddydoer and Dnedin
all hiking local rates by between seventeen point five and
twenty one point four percent. These are really high rates
rises by anyone's books. A lot of factors to consider here,
(13:23):
the cost of government reforms, changing government policies, particularly around
freshwater and three waters. Also licensing fees not increasing, and
also lots and lots of increases that councils just can't avoid.
I've had a look at some of these reports, and
I mean the cost of bridges going up thirty eight
percent in three years, sewage systems going up thirty percent
in three years, roads thirty percent in three years, water
(13:43):
supplies thirty percent in three years, are pool chemicals twenty
five percent in two years, food for dogs at the
local pound twenty percent to two years, quarrying ten point
seven percent in just one year, concrete twelve point five
percent in a year, sand for pavements fifteen percent in
a year, funger side up thirty one percent in just
one year, fertilizes up fifty seven percent in a year,
insurance premiums up about a third, and interest rates also
(14:06):
increasing lately as well.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
So they really don't have any other option other than
rates rises, Right, will they be though? The death knell
for mayors? Do you think?
Speaker 5 (14:15):
Yeah? I mean it's a difficult one. I mean, I
mean there's no getting around the fact that the councils
will have to be charging more and actually doing less.
And I think that the big question will be, you
know what they cut and what they don't cut. I mean,
we've had lots of debates recently, this huge debate in
Auckland and Order to do about whether or not to
move from weekly to fortnightly rubbish collections. That's something that
many other cities are already doing. Also the debates about
(14:37):
rubbish bins, removing the local rubbish bins from the parks,
letting the grass grow longer, and if you've been to
a local park lately but the grass is pretty well,
haven't the grass is pretty long. I mean they're talking
about inches longer than they used to be. The boom
debate and live in lots of councils no longer mow
the burns. Also the ongoing debate about cycleway speed bumps,
pedestrian crossings that really get people going. And I suppose
(14:58):
what do you cut and what don't?
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Forty three councils will be having referendums on keeping Muorti wards,
which will be voted on at the elections. Do you
think that will color how the local elections go?
Speaker 5 (15:11):
Yeah, I think definitely. I mean, obviously we had these
forty five councils establishing or moving to establish mighty wards
after that twenty twenty one law change. Then we had
the new government come in and say, you know, we
have to hold a public referendum in twenty twenty five
to keep them. So forty three of the forty five
councils voting to keep them, and we had the two
councils that decided not to keep them, a Kipita District
Council and Upper Hut and we had quite angry debates there.
(15:32):
But these votes are going to cost councils millions of
dollars and those that support Mighty Wards, so that's a
waste of money because most of the councils sort of
overwhelmingly support the Mighty Wards. And then on the other side,
we've got people saying that's a waste of money because
the councils should have just accepted that and maybe voted
not to have a public vote and voted to scrap them. So,
you know, definitely a lot of frustration from I suppose
(15:53):
both sides of the debate here about the fact that
there are there is even you know this many councils
deciding to have referendum on this issue.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Now we can't get into all sixty seven city and
district councils and their individual issues. I wish we could
mike when I know that you'd love to. But are
there any other major concerns across the board that affect
a few of them?
Speaker 5 (16:12):
Yeah, I mean, I think definitely it comes down to
rates primarily, and the question of what we cut and
what we don't. I mean, rates are going to go up,
They're probably going to keep going up higher than inflation,
just because the costs that councils are facing keeps increasing.
But the question is what do they cut and what
don't they cut? And I think there's no getting around
the fact that we're going to end up having councils
(16:33):
doing less and charging us more. You guys have given
me a lot of feedback.
Speaker 6 (16:40):
Some of it's quite supportive, some of it's quite negative.
Speaker 5 (16:43):
There's some of the shows that some of you people
are nuts.
Speaker 6 (16:46):
Here we go, you arefinably disappointing. It's just for me, Well,
you're a bit of a dick, mate, Alex Ratzor says,
my rates ball keeps going up. Side was my desire
to leave Aucklane, New Zealand too well, Goodbye Top Bounder,
Wellington and gone.
Speaker 5 (17:01):
Up twenty five percent, Darth vaded.
Speaker 6 (17:04):
I used to dislike you, but now I think I
like you. Mayor Brown well got on your dar's vaded.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Looking at candidates, Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown has bounced back
over the last year after his i'm going to say,
disastrous handling of the Auckland floods. Are there any candidates
coming for his job or is he pretty safe at
the moment.
Speaker 5 (17:26):
It's a really interesting race. I mean polling from about
eight months ago showing some bridges is about the probably
the most popular potential candidate. We're still not sure if
he would stand. Wayne Brown in second place, he formerly
hasn't decided whether or not he will run for me. Obviously,
his popularity has sort of recovered a bit after taking
that major hit now almost two years ago with his
(17:46):
handling of the floods. And then Paula Bennett also very popular.
She's confirmed she's she's thinking about it's also telling us
she's very seriously considering it, deepening. Mere Desley Simpson also
very popular, sort of across the political spectrum, but all
in cations are she won't stand. And they're also seeing
a number of the regular candidates starting to put their
name forward. Again, the conservative Ted Johnson confirming in recent
(18:08):
days that he will definitely be running as well.
Speaker 1 (18:10):
And Wellington Mayor Tory Farno probably the most at risk,
isn't she.
Speaker 5 (18:13):
Oh, definitely yes, and I mean you only have to
listen to some of her recent interviews to see the
situation she's in. We've got a number of candidates putting
their name forward. Ray Hung has told us he's definitely standing,
quite an outspoken critic of the mayor, got an ice
cream shop owner Carl Typhon Bucker and an entrepreneur Luke Pearson.
I've got a number of councilors considering running as well.
A number of left wing figures have confirmed they're definitely
(18:36):
not running. And Mark Sainsbury, who many people will know
from TV and radio, he's been quashing rumors that he
might stand. Definitely. It's going to come down to probably
two main key issues, the Wellington Airports hearsl and the
Golden Mile talking point as well, and also those ongoing
race rises the city has been facing.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
What are some other councils you'll be keeping an eye on.
I'm thinking Ben Bell down and Gore or not b
Clark and.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
In Bicago, Yeah, definitely, I mean gor Mia. Ben the
country's youngest mayor, has really faced a really tough time
in the last three years and often fraught relationship with
both counselors and the council staff. Obviously that particularly that
issue with the CEO in vicargo with Nobby Clark. He's
faced a lot of controversy for using the N word
at a public event, using racist and homophobic slurs during
(19:20):
a TV interview with a comedy show, and then over
his conduct at a public event fulling heart surgery as well.
The other interesting one christ Church, christ Church mayor film
major facing a challenge from Sarah Templeton. He's promised to
keep his rates rises under four percent. At the last election,
Ben delivered rates rises of six point four and nine
point nine. I don't know how good at maths you are,
but both of those numbers are over four So so
(19:44):
facing that challenge obviously things a bit more complex than
perhaps he imagined they were heading to the last election.
Also important to note Todonga won't be having any election
this year. Marhi Dreysdale will remain mayor until twenty twenty eight,
just to let that new council sort of bed After
the commissioners were replaced with the council.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
And finally, Michael, we love a prediction here on the
Front Page. What's your big prediction for how these elections
might go.
Speaker 5 (20:11):
Yeah, well, we already saw a big swing to the
right at the last election three years ago, something we've
been seeing in local and central government elections right around
the world over the last three years in the sort
of pandemic post pandemic era. Since then, we've had some
real cost of living pressures with high inflation driven by
the non tradable inflation like rates. So the things that
people can't avoid not paying, and rates are a big
(20:33):
one of those. And so we're probably going to see
more support for candidates who promise to contain rates increases,
even if that means further spending cutbacks. Expect rates increases
to be a really big issue at this year's election.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
Thanks for joining us, Michael.
Speaker 5 (20:47):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (20:51):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at Ensad Herald dot MZ. The Front Page is produced
by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also a
sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
Subscribe to the.
Speaker 1 (21:10):
Front page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts,
and tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
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