March 29, 2026 • 25 mins
Iran is warning against US ground invasion as regional leaders ramp up diplomatic efforts.
It comes as the USS Tripoli – carrying 3,500 US service members – arrived in the Middle East at the weekend.
It’s all while Pakistan said it is prepared to host US-Iran talks after meeting with foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
But, what are the chances of peace in the Middle East? How do we achieve it? And, how long will this war last?
Today on The Front Page, University of Otago Peace Studies professor Richard Jackson is with us to take us through the latest, and what could happen next.
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You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
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Producer: Jane Yee
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Iran is
warning against US ground invasion as regional leaders ramp up
diplomatic efforts. It comes as the USS Tripoli carrying three thousand,
(00:26):
five hundred US service members arrived in the Middle East
at the weekend. All of this while Pakistan said it
is prepared to host US Iran talks after meeting with
foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
But what are the chances of peace in the Middle East?
How do we achieve it? And how long will this
war last? Today on the front page, University of Otago.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Peace Studies Professor Richard Jackson is with us to take
us through the latest and what could happen next?
Speaker 1 (01:02):
So, Richard, apparently the.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Pentagon is planning for weeks of ground operations in Iran,
though US President Donald Trump has not yet approved any
kind of deployment.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
All the while, Iran is warning the.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
US against boots on the ground. So what is the
likelihood of US seeing boots on the ground.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Well, I think what we've got to keep in mind
is that this war is not being prosecuted on a
planned basis. It's kind of an ad hoc on the
fly type of operation. You know, the US expected certain
things that simply haven't happened, and so they've got no
(01:43):
backup plan. And I think in fact what's happened is
that the negative fallout of Iran's response is starting to
put pressure on the US, and so they're kind of
scrambling around to think, well, what can we do. One
thing they could do is try to come up with
(02:04):
some kind of deal that would make it look like
they have achieved their goals. Another is, well, let's put
troops in there and see if we can secure the
straits of Hormos to relieve pressure on the global economy.
But in reality, they've just got no proper plan. In
many ways, it's much much worse than what happened in
(02:27):
Iraq in two thousand and three, when they planned an
initial invasion but had no plan for what came after that.
And the same thing has happened again. It's very typical
of Western intervention in the Middle East. Let's do an intervention,
but let's not pay any attention to the experts, or
to the analysts, or to any predictions about what may
(02:48):
happen afterwards, and this is exactly what's happened. A whole
series of very uncomfortable and unpredictable things have happened, which
have put the US and Israel and others in a corner.
And I think, yeah, this is just going to be
lurching from one disaster to another. I think if they
(03:08):
put troops on the ground, there's a real risk there
that this will will suit the Iranians because they'll be
able to attack in guerrilla style warfare against the US,
and the US could get dragged into a similar kind
of quagmire that it got dragged into in Iraq and
(03:31):
Afghanistan and other places around the world. So yeah, you know,
I think Trump is so unpredictable that he could think that, look,
if I just put in a few troops there, that
will turn the tide of this. But he's you know,
that's just making a huge mistake.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Well yeah, and the fact of the matter is that
Aroun wants troops on the ground because it does thrive
in that kind of chaos. Do you think Trump has
seriously overreestmated his superiority. I suppose in giving Iran, say
forty eight hours, then oh, note five days.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Then owner I think it's ten days now.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Look, I think both Israel and the US seriously underestimated Iran,
who have spent the last you know, thirty or forty
years watching the US in Afghanistan, in Iraq, watching Israel
in South Lebanon and in Gaza, and trying to work out, well,
what would we do if they attacked us? And they've
(04:33):
got a plan, They're not stupid, and they've got the
weaponry and that you know, they've got a strategic kind
of goal, which is to make the international economy hurt
so much from the response that this will prove to
be a deterrent in the future as well. So Iran's
not just thinking about well, how do we survive this war,
(04:56):
but how do we prevent our country being attacked again
in future? Well, what we do is we attack all
the golf countries, we attack the Straits of hor Moos,
we attack oil supplies, energy from the Middle East. They'll
never dare attack us again if we can destroy all that,
and they, you know, they're succeeding at the moment. And
(05:17):
I think, you know, Trump was incredibly naive, and so
is Israel in thinking that if we just smash them
a bit hard with our air power, you know, people
will revolt, the regime will collapse, or they'll beg for
a peace deal and so on and so forth. But
in actual fact, what it's done is it's hardened the resolve.
(05:38):
I think of the Iranian regime. They've now got their
plans that they've been preparing for decades, and they're putting
them into practice, and it seems to be sort of
generally working in the sense that real pressure is going
on the global economy and indirectly then on the US
and Israel, who started this war without any kind of
(06:01):
long term plan or any kind of alternative to what
happens if Iran doesn't fold, what happens if they don't
given what happens if they do manage to fight back
and show some real strategic depth. I think we've heard
that Trump was warned about how Iran would close the
(06:24):
straits of hor moves and this would affect global war supplies,
but he just dismissed that, And I mean that's typical
of his kind of foreign policy making anyway, so we
shouldn't be surprised at that. But yeah, Iran will I
think not care at all and will perhaps even welcome
it if the US does decide to put troops on
(06:47):
the ground. And one thing to remember is that these
are very small numbers of troops. I mean, the US
has fifty thousand troops in the Middle East at the moment.
This might go up by a few thousand, but that's
thing compared to the one hundred and sixty thousand that
they sent into Iraq, and Iran's a much bigger country
and much more powerful than Iraq was at that time.
(07:09):
So I'm not sure even sure what they think they're
going to achieve with that few number of troops. And
certainly they haven't had all the sort of two years
of planning or even six months of planning that normally
goes into a major invasion. So yeah, to me, it
just seems incredibly poorly thought out.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
And pointless well really ad hocky, you know, just reactionary
rather than actual planning involved. Pakistan has says that it
will host talks between Iran and the US. Is Pakistan
a good mediator do you think?
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Look, I'm not sure anyone's a good mediator at the moment.
I mean, the challenges for mediation here are that there
is no trust anymore between and the US, largely because
during the last round of negotiations, that was when the
US attacked, And that is kind of such a violation
(08:12):
to say, let's have peace talks and then to attack
during the peace talks, but then also to try and
assassinate the country's leaders. So we want to talk to you,
but we're going to try and kill you as well.
These sorts of actions are totally antithetical to peaceful resolution
(08:33):
through diplomacy, and I think, you know, the US in
that sense has completely destroyed the possibility or it's seriously
undermined the chances of honest negotiations and real peace talks.
So I think any peace talks are going to be
incredibly difficult and incredibly fractured. Now, Pakistan might be a
(08:57):
good country because in the past they've had a good
relationship with the US, they're in Islamic country, They've probably
got a relationship with Iran. But I mean, who can
really control the unpredictable United States? And also the United
States is really paying a lot of attention to Israel.
(09:19):
I think Israel had convinced them to attack in the
first place. And if Israel is kind of whispering in
the US's ear during this. That's also going to add
an unstable element to any kind of negotiations because Israel
has different interests to the US. Israel wants conflict and
(09:41):
instability in Iran. They want to create a country that's
unable to focus on anything external but is entirely focused
on internal problems because yeah, it suits them strategically to
be surrounded by a whole series of countries that are
basically in civil war. So they you know, they don't
(10:04):
want any negotiations that are going to lead to sanctions
being taken off Iran, to you know, international inspections and
to stability, because that would then give Iran a chance
to rebuild and strengthen its military capabilities again and get
(10:24):
its governance back together. So I think that's another unstable
element in any kind of negotiations that might be taking place.
So I don't have a lot of optimism about negotiations.
I think, you know, the best chance is that maybe Trump,
for domestic reasons or for other reasons, decides he's had
(10:46):
enough and he just declares victory and stops. I think,
you know, that's probably the best hope that we.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Have they now have the chance that is around to
permanently abandon their nuclear ambitions and to charge a new
path forward.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
We'll see if they want to do it. If they don't,
we're their worse nightmare.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
In the meantime, we'll just keep blowing them away, unimpeded, unstopped. Well,
there's not a thing they can do about it. They
can't do anything about it, you know, I'll tell you
if they could, if they could, you'd be hearing about it.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
You'd be hearing about it. You don't hear anything about.
Speaker 1 (11:30):
It on the nuclear weapons front. Do you think the.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Weapons of mass destruction line will work on the US public?
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Again, I really don't think so. I mean, I think
what we're seeing, you know, right across the world, but
also you know, including in US public opinion from the
demonstrations we saw yesterday in the No Kings demonstrations, but
also so you know the Pope's recent statement. What we're
(12:03):
seeing all over the place is a general condemnation of this.
Most people can see that this war was not warranted.
You know, most people you know who know anything at
all about this knows that Iran was nowhere near developing
nuclear weapons. And even if they did, it would purely
be for de terrence because they know, as the rest
(12:25):
of the world knows, that if you have nuclear weapons,
like North Korea, that you're not going to get invaded,
and they just don't want to get invaded. So in fact,
this invasion, this attack has, if you like, quadrupled Iran's
incentive to develop nuclear weapons because.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
They look at North Korea and they think, well, everyone's
leaving them alone.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Absolutely. Yeah, So this is the logic. I've got nuclear weapons,
no one would dare attack me. They're attacking me because
I haven't got nuclear weapons, right That's what happened to Iraq,
That's what happened to Afghanistan, That's what's happening to Iran
right now. It's what's happened to Lebanon. Everywhere that's not
got nuclear weapons gets attacked. So I think in some
(13:12):
ways this has had the opposite effect, and I think
in the years after this, Iran may accelerate its nuclear
program unless we can get back to the agreement that
was there before Trump got rid of it, the Obama
era agreement where Iran was adhering to the low levels
(13:32):
of enrichment and to regular inspections of its nuclear program.
So yeah, look, I think most people know this, and
most people are demonstrating and expressing opinions against this war.
And certainly as it begins to really affect the global
economy and people all over the world start to suffer
(13:54):
from this economically and socially because of that, I think,
you know, there's going to be more and more anger
against them.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
I've seen that Iran has launched a volunteer campaign. It's
titled Homeland Defender Fighters for Iran. It's currently accepting participants
aged twelve and older, according to local media. CNN reported
that the roles include operational patrols and checkpoint duties. Does
this poke a hole I.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
Suppose in Iran's otherwise kind of steely exterior. Are they
starting to get worried or do they just not care?
Speaker 3 (14:31):
I really I'm not sure how to interpret that, except
to say that maybe you know, they're preparing potentially for
a ground invasion. If they think that a ground invasion
is possible, you know, sort of mobilizing ordinary people to
(14:53):
form guerrilla style resistance, as we saw in Iraq, for example,
and Afghanistan. I mean, yeah, maybe that's the warning. Maybe
the warning is you you know, you invade if you like,
but everybody here is going to be prepared for that,
and you're going to be facing what you face in Iraq.
(15:16):
That could be the case. I mean, you know, I've
heard in other contexts. When I went to Taiwan a
couple of years ago, people said, yeah, yeah, we're not
worried about the Chinese invading because if they invade, we'll
fight like the Taliban, you know. And for them, the
lesson was that if you if you fight like the Taliban,
(15:39):
you know, sort of these guerrilla style attacks over a
twenty year period, you will eventually defeat the superpower. And
you know, there's there's something to that because I think
if you look at the history of the superpowers, they
don't win wars anymore. They haven't won any wars since
(15:59):
you know, Vietnam, despite all their technological advancement. Once you
get troops on the ground, all it takes is, you know,
you just have to kill one US soldier a week
for five years, and eventually the superpower will give up
and go home. And you know, that's how people are thinking.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
Some forceful words opposing that war. In Poplio's Palm Sunday
mass this weekend. Speaking to the faithful in Saint Peter's Square,
the pontiff said God quote doesn't listen to the prayers
of those who make war end quote. He spoke of
Jesus as the king of peace and blasted those who
cite God to justify violence. He also offered special blessings
(16:50):
for Christians in the Middle East spending Holy Days in
the middle of the conflict.
Speaker 6 (16:59):
If Everrun does manage to kind of I suppose win
winning would be them still being in leadership once all
of this is said and done.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
What other groups around the world do you think are
looking quite closely and learning so, I.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Mean, I think that's just a it's not specific, but
I think there's a broader process that's occurred here, and
this is actually a longer running trend, if you like.
And I think in actual fact, the big event is
not whether or not Iran holds off this combined US
(17:38):
Israel attack and comes out of it, you know, with
its government intact and its society intact and able to
dictate some terms, because it controls the straits of moves
and can still inflict damage on the international economy. I
think it actually goes back to the US humiliating withdrawal
(18:00):
from Afghanistans where we saw you know, those chaot vaccines,
very reminiscent of the Chaot VC scenes when the US
withdrew from Vietnam. That proved to the entire world that
you can be the world superpower and you can go
to the poorest country in the world and pour in
(18:21):
trillions of dollars, literally trillions of dollars, hundreds of thousands
of troops, have all the latest technology and still end
up being defeated by the Taliban who drive around with
pickup trucks and have aks. I mean, those guys had
no satellites, no heavy artillery, no technology, but they still
(18:46):
defeated the world's superpower. Now, everyone looked at that, I
think across the world and said, yeah, the US thinks
it has power because it can deploy you know, high
time military technology anywhere on the planet and it can
blow up some stuff. But it can't translate that power
(19:08):
into anything real. It can't change a country's leadership, it
can't bring democracy, it can't bring security, it can't force
people to do what it wants. Really, it's a kind
of a paper tiger now, and I think, you know
that's being sort of proven again, I guess in this
(19:32):
case where Iran is proving to be incredibly defiant despite
the fact that they're getting horrendously bombed every day, I
think it's been proven as well in Gaza. You know,
if you look at what happened in Gaza, Israel dropped
the equivalent of six nuclear bombs on that tiny little
region and at the very end of it, Hamas came
(19:55):
out and said, we're still here. You haven't defeated us,
We've beaten you. Right, Israel is going to find the
same thing in southern Lebanon with Hasbola. They've had five
or six major wars with Hasbela, never been able to
defeat them. They always come back. I mean, military power
(20:16):
doesn't work anymore, particularly when you can just weaponize a
drone that you buy on Amazon. And you know, wars
are now fought in these kind of low tech ways
and it's much more about inflicting little pinpricks on your enemy.
(20:39):
And if you just do that for ten twenty years,
if you've got the resolve, you can defeat a superpower.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
So what does work then, diplomacy? How do we do that?
Speaker 2 (20:50):
I mean, how do you negotiate with the Iranian regime,
who quite famously kills its own population and doesn't care
whether a school or hospital gets blown up. Who is currently,
you know, restricting access to the Internet to the entire
population of Iran. And there are Iran people who fear
(21:13):
that they could be the next North Korea. I saw
a quote from an AFP reporter who said they spoke
to someone saying that they do fear that they could
be the next North Korea and the Internet won't be
turned back on. How do you negotiate with someone like that.
Speaker 3 (21:28):
Yeah, look, you know, it's a horrendous regime. It's very authoritarian.
But what we know from history is that the more
you attack authoritarian regimes, the more authoritarian they tend to become, right,
And I think, you know, it's a self defeating process
in a sense to try and use force, particularly when
(21:50):
it's never really worked. You know, it's like that definition
of insanity where you keep doing the same thing over
and over again expecting a different result. We've got to
think about how many times external intervention has been undertaken
by the US and its allies in the Middle East
but also elsewhere, and how often that's resulted in a
(22:12):
positive change. It hasn't. You can't think of the examples.
It just doesn't really work. What tends to work sometimes
takes twenty thirty, forty fifty years, but it has to
come from within. So the Soviet Union collapsed due to
pressure from below. East Germany collapsed when people rose up
(22:35):
and started disobeying. During the Arab Spring, we saw a
great many authoritarian regimes across the Arab world overthrow their
authoritarian governments. I mean it wasn't supported fully afterwards, and
many of them have gone back to authoritarianism. But this
is the point, is that nonviolent resistance by ordinary people
(23:00):
has a much higher success rate of bringing democracy. Think
of all those countries across Eastern Europe that over through
their governments. There are a whole bunch of countries across
Africa that over through their governments and created more democratic states.
That has a much higher rate of success than external coercion, pressure,
(23:25):
military action and so on. Those type of actions tend
not to work, and they tend to actually cause more
suffering and make it harder for people because you get
situations like this where the authorities, in order to try
and protect themselves from civil disorder, cut off the internet,
you know, put more people on the streets to try
(23:47):
and stop any shows of disloyalty and so on and
so forth, it becomes more oppressive. So I think, ye know, yeah,
Western States, if they genuinely do want to bring about
peace and democracy and authoritarian regimes like Iran, and you know,
I don't think those are the real motives here. I mean,
(24:08):
we're kidding ourselves if we think that's what America is
trying to do or Israel. But if they really did
care about that, there are a whole bunch of other
things that they could do that wouldn't involve this kind
of pressure, but would involve supporting civil society, perhaps easing sanctions,
trying to increase the number of kind of connections that
(24:30):
people have with the outside world, cultural exchanges, dialogue and negotiation,
or you know, a whole range of different things.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Thanks for joining us, Richard.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
My pleasure.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidhrald dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Caine Dickie is our studio operator.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Is Jane Ye.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
Follow the front page on the iHeart app or wherever
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Speaker 1 (25:09):
Podcasts, and join us next time for another look beyond
the headlines.
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Iran is
warning against US ground invasion as regional leaders ramp up
diplomatic efforts. It comes as the USS Tripoli carrying three thousand,
(00:26):
five hundred US service members arrived in the Middle East
at the weekend. All of this while Pakistan said it
is prepared to host US Iran talks after meeting with
foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
But what are the chances of peace in the Middle East?
How do we achieve it? And how long will this
war last? Today on the front page, University of Otago.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Peace Studies Professor Richard Jackson is with us to take
us through the latest and what could happen next?
Speaker 1 (01:02):
So, Richard, apparently the.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
Pentagon is planning for weeks of ground operations in Iran,
though US President Donald Trump has not yet approved any
kind of deployment.
Speaker 1 (01:14):
All the while, Iran is warning the.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
US against boots on the ground. So what is the
likelihood of US seeing boots on the ground.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
Well, I think what we've got to keep in mind
is that this war is not being prosecuted on a
planned basis. It's kind of an ad hoc on the
fly type of operation. You know, the US expected certain
things that simply haven't happened, and so they've got no
(01:43):
backup plan. And I think in fact what's happened is
that the negative fallout of Iran's response is starting to
put pressure on the US, and so they're kind of
scrambling around to think, well, what can we do. One
thing they could do is try to come up with
(02:04):
some kind of deal that would make it look like
they have achieved their goals. Another is, well, let's put
troops in there and see if we can secure the
straits of Hormos to relieve pressure on the global economy.
But in reality, they've just got no proper plan. In
many ways, it's much much worse than what happened in
(02:27):
Iraq in two thousand and three, when they planned an
initial invasion but had no plan for what came after that.
And the same thing has happened again. It's very typical
of Western intervention in the Middle East. Let's do an intervention,
but let's not pay any attention to the experts, or
to the analysts, or to any predictions about what may
(02:48):
happen afterwards, and this is exactly what's happened. A whole
series of very uncomfortable and unpredictable things have happened, which
have put the US and Israel and others in a corner.
And I think, yeah, this is just going to be
lurching from one disaster to another. I think if they
(03:08):
put troops on the ground, there's a real risk there
that this will will suit the Iranians because they'll be
able to attack in guerrilla style warfare against the US,
and the US could get dragged into a similar kind
of quagmire that it got dragged into in Iraq and
(03:31):
Afghanistan and other places around the world. So yeah, you know,
I think Trump is so unpredictable that he could think that, look,
if I just put in a few troops there, that
will turn the tide of this. But he's you know,
that's just making a huge mistake.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
Well yeah, and the fact of the matter is that
Aroun wants troops on the ground because it does thrive
in that kind of chaos. Do you think Trump has
seriously overreestmated his superiority. I suppose in giving Iran, say
forty eight hours, then oh, note five days.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
Then owner I think it's ten days now.
Speaker 3 (04:10):
Look, I think both Israel and the US seriously underestimated Iran,
who have spent the last you know, thirty or forty
years watching the US in Afghanistan, in Iraq, watching Israel
in South Lebanon and in Gaza, and trying to work out, well,
what would we do if they attacked us? And they've
(04:33):
got a plan, They're not stupid, and they've got the
weaponry and that you know, they've got a strategic kind
of goal, which is to make the international economy hurt
so much from the response that this will prove to
be a deterrent in the future as well. So Iran's
not just thinking about well, how do we survive this war,
(04:56):
but how do we prevent our country being attacked again
in future? Well, what we do is we attack all
the golf countries, we attack the Straits of hor Moos,
we attack oil supplies, energy from the Middle East. They'll
never dare attack us again if we can destroy all that,
and they, you know, they're succeeding at the moment. And
(05:17):
I think, you know, Trump was incredibly naive, and so
is Israel in thinking that if we just smash them
a bit hard with our air power, you know, people
will revolt, the regime will collapse, or they'll beg for
a peace deal and so on and so forth. But
in actual fact, what it's done is it's hardened the resolve.
(05:38):
I think of the Iranian regime. They've now got their
plans that they've been preparing for decades, and they're putting
them into practice, and it seems to be sort of
generally working in the sense that real pressure is going
on the global economy and indirectly then on the US
and Israel, who started this war without any kind of
(06:01):
long term plan or any kind of alternative to what
happens if Iran doesn't fold, what happens if they don't
given what happens if they do manage to fight back
and show some real strategic depth. I think we've heard
that Trump was warned about how Iran would close the
(06:24):
straits of hor moves and this would affect global war supplies,
but he just dismissed that, And I mean that's typical
of his kind of foreign policy making anyway, so we
shouldn't be surprised at that. But yeah, Iran will I
think not care at all and will perhaps even welcome
it if the US does decide to put troops on
(06:47):
the ground. And one thing to remember is that these
are very small numbers of troops. I mean, the US
has fifty thousand troops in the Middle East at the moment.
This might go up by a few thousand, but that's
thing compared to the one hundred and sixty thousand that
they sent into Iraq, and Iran's a much bigger country
and much more powerful than Iraq was at that time.
(07:09):
So I'm not sure even sure what they think they're
going to achieve with that few number of troops. And
certainly they haven't had all the sort of two years
of planning or even six months of planning that normally
goes into a major invasion. So yeah, to me, it
just seems incredibly poorly thought out.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
And pointless well really ad hocky, you know, just reactionary
rather than actual planning involved. Pakistan has says that it
will host talks between Iran and the US. Is Pakistan
a good mediator do you think?
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Look, I'm not sure anyone's a good mediator at the moment.
I mean, the challenges for mediation here are that there
is no trust anymore between and the US, largely because
during the last round of negotiations, that was when the
US attacked, And that is kind of such a violation
(08:12):
to say, let's have peace talks and then to attack
during the peace talks, but then also to try and
assassinate the country's leaders. So we want to talk to you,
but we're going to try and kill you as well.
These sorts of actions are totally antithetical to peaceful resolution
(08:33):
through diplomacy, and I think, you know, the US in
that sense has completely destroyed the possibility or it's seriously
undermined the chances of honest negotiations and real peace talks.
So I think any peace talks are going to be
incredibly difficult and incredibly fractured. Now, Pakistan might be a
(08:57):
good country because in the past they've had a good
relationship with the US, they're in Islamic country, They've probably
got a relationship with Iran. But I mean, who can
really control the unpredictable United States? And also the United
States is really paying a lot of attention to Israel.
(09:19):
I think Israel had convinced them to attack in the
first place. And if Israel is kind of whispering in
the US's ear during this. That's also going to add
an unstable element to any kind of negotiations because Israel
has different interests to the US. Israel wants conflict and
(09:41):
instability in Iran. They want to create a country that's
unable to focus on anything external but is entirely focused
on internal problems because yeah, it suits them strategically to
be surrounded by a whole series of countries that are
basically in civil war. So they you know, they don't
(10:04):
want any negotiations that are going to lead to sanctions
being taken off Iran, to you know, international inspections and
to stability, because that would then give Iran a chance
to rebuild and strengthen its military capabilities again and get
(10:24):
its governance back together. So I think that's another unstable
element in any kind of negotiations that might be taking place.
So I don't have a lot of optimism about negotiations.
I think, you know, the best chance is that maybe Trump,
for domestic reasons or for other reasons, decides he's had
(10:46):
enough and he just declares victory and stops. I think,
you know, that's probably the best hope that we.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Have they now have the chance that is around to
permanently abandon their nuclear ambitions and to charge a new
path forward.
Speaker 3 (11:09):
We'll see if they want to do it. If they don't,
we're their worse nightmare.
Speaker 4 (11:14):
In the meantime, we'll just keep blowing them away, unimpeded, unstopped. Well,
there's not a thing they can do about it. They
can't do anything about it, you know, I'll tell you
if they could, if they could, you'd be hearing about it.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
You'd be hearing about it. You don't hear anything about.
Speaker 1 (11:30):
It on the nuclear weapons front. Do you think the.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Weapons of mass destruction line will work on the US public?
Speaker 3 (11:41):
Again, I really don't think so. I mean, I think
what we're seeing, you know, right across the world, but
also you know, including in US public opinion from the
demonstrations we saw yesterday in the No Kings demonstrations, but
also so you know the Pope's recent statement. What we're
(12:03):
seeing all over the place is a general condemnation of this.
Most people can see that this war was not warranted.
You know, most people you know who know anything at
all about this knows that Iran was nowhere near developing
nuclear weapons. And even if they did, it would purely
be for de terrence because they know, as the rest
(12:25):
of the world knows, that if you have nuclear weapons,
like North Korea, that you're not going to get invaded,
and they just don't want to get invaded. So in fact,
this invasion, this attack has, if you like, quadrupled Iran's
incentive to develop nuclear weapons because.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
They look at North Korea and they think, well, everyone's
leaving them alone.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Absolutely. Yeah, So this is the logic. I've got nuclear weapons,
no one would dare attack me. They're attacking me because
I haven't got nuclear weapons, right That's what happened to Iraq,
That's what happened to Afghanistan, That's what's happening to Iran
right now. It's what's happened to Lebanon. Everywhere that's not
got nuclear weapons gets attacked. So I think in some
(13:12):
ways this has had the opposite effect, and I think
in the years after this, Iran may accelerate its nuclear
program unless we can get back to the agreement that
was there before Trump got rid of it, the Obama
era agreement where Iran was adhering to the low levels
(13:32):
of enrichment and to regular inspections of its nuclear program.
So yeah, look, I think most people know this, and
most people are demonstrating and expressing opinions against this war.
And certainly as it begins to really affect the global
economy and people all over the world start to suffer
(13:54):
from this economically and socially because of that, I think,
you know, there's going to be more and more anger
against them.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
I've seen that Iran has launched a volunteer campaign. It's
titled Homeland Defender Fighters for Iran. It's currently accepting participants
aged twelve and older, according to local media. CNN reported
that the roles include operational patrols and checkpoint duties. Does
this poke a hole I.
Speaker 1 (14:23):
Suppose in Iran's otherwise kind of steely exterior. Are they
starting to get worried or do they just not care?
Speaker 3 (14:31):
I really I'm not sure how to interpret that, except
to say that maybe you know, they're preparing potentially for
a ground invasion. If they think that a ground invasion
is possible, you know, sort of mobilizing ordinary people to
(14:53):
form guerrilla style resistance, as we saw in Iraq, for example,
and Afghanistan. I mean, yeah, maybe that's the warning. Maybe
the warning is you you know, you invade if you like,
but everybody here is going to be prepared for that,
and you're going to be facing what you face in Iraq.
(15:16):
That could be the case. I mean, you know, I've
heard in other contexts. When I went to Taiwan a
couple of years ago, people said, yeah, yeah, we're not
worried about the Chinese invading because if they invade, we'll
fight like the Taliban, you know. And for them, the
lesson was that if you if you fight like the Taliban,
(15:39):
you know, sort of these guerrilla style attacks over a
twenty year period, you will eventually defeat the superpower. And
you know, there's there's something to that because I think
if you look at the history of the superpowers, they
don't win wars anymore. They haven't won any wars since
(15:59):
you know, Vietnam, despite all their technological advancement. Once you
get troops on the ground, all it takes is, you know,
you just have to kill one US soldier a week
for five years, and eventually the superpower will give up
and go home. And you know, that's how people are thinking.
Speaker 5 (16:28):
Some forceful words opposing that war. In Poplio's Palm Sunday
mass this weekend. Speaking to the faithful in Saint Peter's Square,
the pontiff said God quote doesn't listen to the prayers
of those who make war end quote. He spoke of
Jesus as the king of peace and blasted those who
cite God to justify violence. He also offered special blessings
(16:50):
for Christians in the Middle East spending Holy Days in
the middle of the conflict.
Speaker 6 (16:59):
If Everrun does manage to kind of I suppose win
winning would be them still being in leadership once all
of this is said and done.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
What other groups around the world do you think are
looking quite closely and learning so, I.
Speaker 3 (17:16):
Mean, I think that's just a it's not specific, but
I think there's a broader process that's occurred here, and
this is actually a longer running trend, if you like.
And I think in actual fact, the big event is
not whether or not Iran holds off this combined US
(17:38):
Israel attack and comes out of it, you know, with
its government intact and its society intact and able to
dictate some terms, because it controls the straits of moves
and can still inflict damage on the international economy. I
think it actually goes back to the US humiliating withdrawal
(18:00):
from Afghanistans where we saw you know, those chaot vaccines,
very reminiscent of the Chaot VC scenes when the US
withdrew from Vietnam. That proved to the entire world that
you can be the world superpower and you can go
to the poorest country in the world and pour in
(18:21):
trillions of dollars, literally trillions of dollars, hundreds of thousands
of troops, have all the latest technology and still end
up being defeated by the Taliban who drive around with
pickup trucks and have aks. I mean, those guys had
no satellites, no heavy artillery, no technology, but they still
(18:46):
defeated the world's superpower. Now, everyone looked at that, I
think across the world and said, yeah, the US thinks
it has power because it can deploy you know, high
time military technology anywhere on the planet and it can
blow up some stuff. But it can't translate that power
(19:08):
into anything real. It can't change a country's leadership, it
can't bring democracy, it can't bring security, it can't force
people to do what it wants. Really, it's a kind
of a paper tiger now, and I think, you know
that's being sort of proven again, I guess in this
(19:32):
case where Iran is proving to be incredibly defiant despite
the fact that they're getting horrendously bombed every day, I
think it's been proven as well in Gaza. You know,
if you look at what happened in Gaza, Israel dropped
the equivalent of six nuclear bombs on that tiny little
region and at the very end of it, Hamas came
(19:55):
out and said, we're still here. You haven't defeated us,
We've beaten you. Right, Israel is going to find the
same thing in southern Lebanon with Hasbola. They've had five
or six major wars with Hasbela, never been able to
defeat them. They always come back. I mean, military power
(20:16):
doesn't work anymore, particularly when you can just weaponize a
drone that you buy on Amazon. And you know, wars
are now fought in these kind of low tech ways
and it's much more about inflicting little pinpricks on your enemy.
(20:39):
And if you just do that for ten twenty years,
if you've got the resolve, you can defeat a superpower.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
So what does work then, diplomacy? How do we do that?
Speaker 2 (20:50):
I mean, how do you negotiate with the Iranian regime,
who quite famously kills its own population and doesn't care
whether a school or hospital gets blown up. Who is currently,
you know, restricting access to the Internet to the entire
population of Iran. And there are Iran people who fear
(21:13):
that they could be the next North Korea. I saw
a quote from an AFP reporter who said they spoke
to someone saying that they do fear that they could
be the next North Korea and the Internet won't be
turned back on. How do you negotiate with someone like that.
Speaker 3 (21:28):
Yeah, look, you know, it's a horrendous regime. It's very authoritarian.
But what we know from history is that the more
you attack authoritarian regimes, the more authoritarian they tend to become, right,
And I think, you know, it's a self defeating process
in a sense to try and use force, particularly when
(21:50):
it's never really worked. You know, it's like that definition
of insanity where you keep doing the same thing over
and over again expecting a different result. We've got to
think about how many times external intervention has been undertaken
by the US and its allies in the Middle East
but also elsewhere, and how often that's resulted in a
(22:12):
positive change. It hasn't. You can't think of the examples.
It just doesn't really work. What tends to work sometimes
takes twenty thirty, forty fifty years, but it has to
come from within. So the Soviet Union collapsed due to
pressure from below. East Germany collapsed when people rose up
(22:35):
and started disobeying. During the Arab Spring, we saw a
great many authoritarian regimes across the Arab world overthrow their
authoritarian governments. I mean it wasn't supported fully afterwards, and
many of them have gone back to authoritarianism. But this
is the point, is that nonviolent resistance by ordinary people
(23:00):
has a much higher success rate of bringing democracy. Think
of all those countries across Eastern Europe that over through
their governments. There are a whole bunch of countries across
Africa that over through their governments and created more democratic states.
That has a much higher rate of success than external coercion, pressure,
(23:25):
military action and so on. Those type of actions tend
not to work, and they tend to actually cause more
suffering and make it harder for people because you get
situations like this where the authorities, in order to try
and protect themselves from civil disorder, cut off the internet,
you know, put more people on the streets to try
(23:47):
and stop any shows of disloyalty and so on and
so forth, it becomes more oppressive. So I think, ye know, yeah,
Western States, if they genuinely do want to bring about
peace and democracy and authoritarian regimes like Iran, and you know,
I don't think those are the real motives here. I mean,
(24:08):
we're kidding ourselves if we think that's what America is
trying to do or Israel. But if they really did
care about that, there are a whole bunch of other
things that they could do that wouldn't involve this kind
of pressure, but would involve supporting civil society, perhaps easing sanctions,
trying to increase the number of kind of connections that
(24:30):
people have with the outside world, cultural exchanges, dialogue and negotiation,
or you know, a whole range of different things.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Thanks for joining us, Richard.
Speaker 3 (24:41):
My pleasure.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidhrald dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
hosted and produced by me Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Caine Dickie is our studio operator.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
Is Jane Ye.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
Follow the front page on the iHeart app or wherever
you get your.
Speaker 1 (25:09):
Podcasts, and join us next time for another look beyond
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