April 14, 2026 • 16 mins
The US blockade of Iranian ports has begun.
President Donald Trump is warning any ships that try to disrupt US efforts will be eliminated. Earlier, Iran's parliament speaker said the country would not "surrender under threats".
Weekend peace talks between the US and Iran ended without resolution, with Trump blaming Iran 's unwillingness to end its nuclear ambitions.
Vice President JD Vance has said that it’s up to Iran and the “ball is in their court” about furthering peace talks.
So, what exactly is a blockade? Is it legal? And, what could it mean for the wider conflict?
Today on The Front Page, University of Waikato international law professor Al Gillespie is with us to unpack the implications and explore what this move might really achieve.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kiota. I'm Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The
US blockade of Iranian ports has begun. President Donald Trump
is warning any ships that try to disrupt US efforts
will be eliminated. Earlier, Iran's parliament speakers said the country
(00:29):
would not surrender under threats. Weekend, peace talks between the
US and Iran ended without resolution, with Trump blaming Iran
for not willing to end their nuclear ambitions. Vice President
j D Vance has said it's up to Iran and
the bowl is in their court when it comes to
peace talks. So what exactly is a blockade? Is it
(00:53):
even legal? And what could it mean for the wider conflict?
Today on the Front Page, University of Waia Though, International
law Professor Ol Gillespie is with us to unpack the
implications and explore what this move might really achieve. First
off our, when we hear about a US blockade on
(01:16):
Iranian ports, what does that actually mean?
Speaker 2 (01:18):
What it means is that no vessels will be able
to come from the Iranian ports through the stradle for moves,
and it also means that no vessels including neutral vessels
which aren't Iranian can carry goods from Iran outside of
the stradle for moose, So that part of the coastline
(01:39):
through and it's a large coastline, is completely stopped to
trade for Iranian vessels and vessels trying to get to
that part of the world.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
And so what differentiates a lawful blockade from an unlawful
one in this context.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Well, there's a couple of things you've got to look at.
To be lawful, it has to be declared and it
must make sure does not stop certain goods in particular,
such as humanitarian goods or food. So you must always
allow food into an area. And the second thing is
you have to make sure that neutral vessels are able
to still transit the area and still have freedom of
the seas. And so for other boats going through through
(02:16):
the strait and going to Saudi or Curate or Oman
that they will be fine. It's only those that are
going to Iran that will have problems.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
And how do you know what vessels which while you.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Will board the vessel, is every vessel have search and
seizure whereby that the American Navy will come on the
boat and they will check its manifesto at its manifest
of where the boat's being, what goods it contains, and
where it's trying to go to. And if they suspect
that it's an Iranian vessel or a vessel carrying Iranian goods,
(02:49):
they will seize that boat and then take it away
and decide what to do with it.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
I can't imagine that Iranian vessels will be following all
of the checks and balances and crossing the t's and
dotting the eyes that kind of thing. I mean, what
ways can they make sure that it is an Iranian vessel?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Well, that there will be a register and they'll be
able to see what flag it flies beneath. But that's
the easy part. The hard part is when you've got
vessels from other countries like China or Russia which decide
to continue to trade with Iran and try to get
the oil out and America Seeds was one of their vessels.
And that's when it's going to get very sticky diplomatically,
because the Russians or the Chinese or any other countries
(03:31):
are going to say, we've got freedom of trade, and
America is going to say, no, VI's a blockade. We
control the situation. This used to work very well in
the nineteenth century. It doesn't work so well in the
twenty first century.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Why is that because.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
The world is more complicated, it's more economically integrated, and
that there's more exchange going between these areas of the
high seas and the territorial Sea. So historically it was
easier because you had fewer countries and less rules at place.
Now what Trump's done is he's dredged out a rule
from the nineteenth century. He's tried to update it to
(04:06):
the twenty first century, and it's going to hope that
all other countries are bide by it. But that will
be difficult.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
How much danger does that put those crews on US
vessels participating in this blockade.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
For a blockade to be lawful, it has to be effective,
which means that you have to have naval boats around
the ports and around the waterways so that they can
effectively control what they're trying to restrain. That means that
American vessels are going to be in around the straight
Orf Moves, they're going to be into Persian Gulf, in
the Gulf of Iman, and they're going to be effectively
(04:38):
in the war zone. This will be a high risk
situation because this is probably what Iran's been waiting for,
because now they'll be able to deploy what weapons that
they've got that could hit the American vessels. And so
whether you're looking at sea mines, sea droned fast attack boats,
or even missiles, this is where the risk will come
because not just for the American vessels which will be
(04:59):
trying to control the that's right, but also for any
neutral vessels where they stay like, okay, it's safe to
go through. Now, a lot of neutral vessels aren't going
to feel that safe because they know that Iran will
be aiming at them.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
And it's not really an insurance issue, as Trump may
have suggested as well, Hey you can still get insurance
for the straight for your vessel, but it's just more
expensive now. So the real issue here is putting people
don't want to put their crews at resk.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
It's partly people don't want to be shot at, which
is a reasonable human response, and also the economics of it,
because even although you can get insurance, it will drive
up the cost of the commodity that you're trying to sell.
And so this is what this means for a country
like New Zealand, is that we can continue to expect
that the price of the commodities in oil in particular
(05:45):
will continue to increase, not get cheaper and foreseeable future
if it has blockade worked seamlessly, if Iran did not
contest the blockade, and theory the shipping would flow. But
in reality they are probably going to go for an
knock out blow where they try to sink an American vessel,
or they're going to try to sink some neutral vessels,
and that will push the economic prices of all the
(06:07):
commodities that go through this straight up?
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Does this US blockade risk breaching the kind of the
broader principle of the freedom of navigation under the UN
Convention of the Law of the Seas?
Speaker 2 (06:21):
In simple terms, the rules of blockade trump the law
of the sea. But in theory, you can have a
blockade on Iran, but you've still got freedom of transit
for all non Iranian vessels and all vessels which turn
trade for Iran, So you've still got freedom of transit,
and in reality you haven't. In reality, what you've got
(06:42):
is a blocked waterway. But in theory they are different things,
and you can still have that freedom, and mister Trump
will be trying to make countries say it's safe to go, now,
bring your vessels through. But a lot of countries are
going to be saying, we don't consider it safe. We're
not going to do that. And the other thing mister
Trump will be trying to do is ask countries to
help with the blockade. But for countries like ourselves, we've
(07:02):
got to work out a do we support the blockade
or b do we object to the blockade? And so
it's not just a for having your military there, it's
also about whether you agree with this tool, which is legal,
which is going to make your costs more expensive.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
What would a successful blockade look like that.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
The Iranians are hemmed into the coastline, that there is
no firing of missiles or attack boats or drones or
sea mines, and that the traffic flows freely and gets
back to a regulated speed and everyone is safe. A
disastrous blockade is the exact opposite of that. And the
(07:43):
Americans try to control the seaway. The Iranians can test it,
but then you've got one step worse than that, which
is to protect the seaway, you've got to control the coastline.
Which would mean boots on the ground, and because that's
the only way often historically that you can control the team.
You don't want on deploying the mind or deploying the
drones or deploy the missiles. But if you put boots
(08:05):
on the ground, then the whole complexion of this war
would change very.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Quickly, and you'd be playing right into Iran's hands as well,
because that's exactly what it wants.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
This is the one chance they've got of leveling the
playing field. This would make it much easier to cook.
The superiority that America in Israel has over Iran right
now is in technology when they're at twelve thousand feet,
but when they're on the ground and the streets around
the coastal zones, they could quickly level up to a
much more equal combatted status point.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Over you said it was over nuclear.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
It was over nuclear.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Very similar, Yeah, very good.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
I guess you're listening. It's over the fact that they
will never have a nuclear weapon Iran. You're market it down.
Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and we agreed
to a lot of things, but they didn't agree to that,
and I think they will agree to I'm almost sure
of it.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
What do you think New Zealand's likely options for responding
to THEIRS. I suppose diplomatically, politically, or in terms of
just protecting ki We flagged vessels in the area.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
With ki We flagged vessels. If there are ke We
flagg vessels up there, we would have to work out
whether the government would encourage them to use the freedom
of transit. Known that the American Navy is backing it
and trying to make it safe, it's our first thing.
The second thing is whether we support the blockade or not.
I mean, it's a legal thing that mister Trump is doing.
(09:36):
Even though the war is illegal, this method is legal,
but we can still voice our opposition to it because
our foremost concern right now at this war is trying
to get prices down and trying to get the goods
to flow again, and having a blockade is probably not
in New Zealand's best interests. But whether we voice our
voice that or not, I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
So how might this blockade affect global oil prices?
Speaker 2 (10:00):
If Iran responds and takes the war back to America
or targets the neutral vessels going through the waterway, it
will become even more congested than it is now At
the moment, there's a trickle of boats going through. If
the blockade is applied, Iron contests that the trickle will stop.
The other risk is that it won't just be with
(10:21):
regard to the strain of for moves, it will also
be with the Red Sea because the Huthi, who Iran
also control have also have a capability to expand their
military capability in that ocean as well. And so right
now we're looking at one straight being blocked, not two waterways.
And the events the possibility if Iran decides to throw
everything into making basis difficult as possible.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
So suppose I suppose this is either it's a legal decision,
so that it's a legal blockade and it is a
high risk one. But what other options did Trump have.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Trump's not wrong to be defending the freedom of the
high seas and or the freedom of the seas and
the freedom of transit, obviously, and when they went to
the negotiations in Pakistan, he was correct not to allow
Iran to have that because it was one of the
things that they wanted, their ability to toll their vessels.
The problem is that this control that Iran has and
(11:13):
that it seeks, even though illegal under the law of
the sea, is one of the few powers that Iran
has right now, and it's linked to the war and
the failure of the diplomacy to get to this point.
And so even though Trump is right on the freedom
of disease, he's wrong on the other matters. But the
two of them are becoming overlapping. He knows he's got
(11:34):
to open up the high seas, or he knows he's
got to open up the straight but he hasn't got
many other tools to do it. What I expect he's
been trying to do is pressurize countries like France and
Britain and NATO to be part of the blockade. And
even though it's a lawful choice, these countries and groups
are saying, we're not going to get involved in the
illegal war. Other countries like China and Russia are delighted
(11:58):
because one mister Trump's in a mess. And for Russia,
the blockade means that the oil is now becoming very
valuable and obviousanctions against them because of the Ukraine War
and now been put in the waste paper basket, and
so having the blockade and Trump's continual mistakes suits Russia,
it suits China and the allies that mister Trump has
with NATO, and countries like France and Britain are taking
(12:19):
a step back because even though he's not wrong about
trying to open up the Strait, because it's connected to
legal war and illegal war, we won't get involved.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
Could taking any decision whatever it may be, even symbolic
support or kind of criticism of the blockade carry risks
for New Zealand's trade relationships with the US.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Mister Trump does not take criticism at all well, and
a lot of our policy has been trying not to
offend mister Trump. And so even though the wind there
are things which we strongly disagree with, will if we
say anything, we will say it the very nuanced language,
which is a difficult position to be in because many
of the things he's doing right now are outrageous, but
(13:03):
this principle, in particular the freedom of the oceans is
not outrageous. He is correct on this principle. The problem
is that he's a paper war between the freedom of
the oceans and the illegal war which is on the other side.
But he's got no easy solution right now. His alternative
if he walks away as he gives Iran the victory
that he fared to begin with. And not only would
(13:24):
they have their nuclear ambitions uncontrolled, they would also control
the waterway. And so he's really backed himself into a
corner right now, and it's for Iran to exploit this
more than America to open it up.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
So the next step of the war, if Trump were
to continue, would be boots on the ground. But how
likely is that when those boots will only be Israelian
US if the.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Strait can't be opened up. If the blockade requires occupation
of the coastal zone and he requires boots on the ground,
the next question is whose boots to go in there?
Because the last thing he will want his American boots,
and so he will try to influence other countries to
be part of his coalition. But right now, apart from Israel,
all of the like minded friends are staying very far
(14:09):
away from mister Trump, and the one group that might
be sympathetic, such as the Goods or some Iranean dissidents,
will also be scared about trying to put their people
organized in that area. Is it possible? It is possible,
and you can only look at historical examples like Gallipoli,
whereby you're trying to force us straight. It doesn't work.
You land or soldiers and every Australian and Kew we
(14:30):
knows are badly that went.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
I've seen some former allies and advisors even questioning Trump
back home whether he's gotten increasingly unbalanced. I saw some
describing him as a lunatic, another one is clearly insane.
The White House has obviously rejected these statements, saying he's
sharp and keeping his opponents on edge. Now, I can
imagine that's a pretty high threshold to get him out
(14:55):
of office. But what's it like back at home in
on US soil for him?
Speaker 2 (15:02):
The possibility of impeaching mister Trump or us An Article
twenty five, You're going to need two thirds of Congress
to do that, and that is very unlikely. It's possible
when you've had the congressional elections in November and there's
a change in the House of Representatives and it's a
change in the Senate, but you're going to need two
thirds majority in both parts, and he that does not
(15:27):
exist now. It may exist in November, but that's the
point that you'd have him removed from office before that point,
it's all just conjecture. But if you used some of
the language that mister Trump used, you would lose your job.
Or if you you've posted images of yourself as a messiah,
people would question your integrity. Yet he has lowered the
(15:48):
standard of what we expect for someone of the highest
office in the world. Yet there's nothing you can The
only people who can do something about this is the Americans,
and that will be in your election in November. But
he still has many supporters as well, and so you
know you're gonna be careful who you listen to here
because as much as there's a lot of concern about them,
and I think that's legitimate, there's also a strong support
(16:08):
base that Bluesy's doing the right thing.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Thanks for joining us, OL, You're welcome, Chelsea. That's it
for this episode of The Front Page. You can read
more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enziherld
dot co dot enz. The Front Page is hosted and
produced by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is our studio operator,
(16:32):
Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer
is Jane Ye. Follow the Front Page on the iHeart
app or wherever you get your podcasts, and join us
next time for another look beyond the headlines.
Kiota. I'm Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. The
US blockade of Iranian ports has begun. President Donald Trump
is warning any ships that try to disrupt US efforts
will be eliminated. Earlier, Iran's parliament speakers said the country
(00:29):
would not surrender under threats. Weekend, peace talks between the
US and Iran ended without resolution, with Trump blaming Iran
for not willing to end their nuclear ambitions. Vice President
j D Vance has said it's up to Iran and
the bowl is in their court when it comes to
peace talks. So what exactly is a blockade? Is it
(00:53):
even legal? And what could it mean for the wider conflict?
Today on the Front Page, University of Waia Though, International
law Professor Ol Gillespie is with us to unpack the
implications and explore what this move might really achieve. First
off our, when we hear about a US blockade on
(01:16):
Iranian ports, what does that actually mean?
Speaker 2 (01:18):
What it means is that no vessels will be able
to come from the Iranian ports through the stradle for moves,
and it also means that no vessels including neutral vessels
which aren't Iranian can carry goods from Iran outside of
the stradle for moose, So that part of the coastline
(01:39):
through and it's a large coastline, is completely stopped to
trade for Iranian vessels and vessels trying to get to
that part of the world.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
And so what differentiates a lawful blockade from an unlawful
one in this context.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
Well, there's a couple of things you've got to look at.
To be lawful, it has to be declared and it
must make sure does not stop certain goods in particular,
such as humanitarian goods or food. So you must always
allow food into an area. And the second thing is
you have to make sure that neutral vessels are able
to still transit the area and still have freedom of
the seas. And so for other boats going through through
(02:16):
the strait and going to Saudi or Curate or Oman
that they will be fine. It's only those that are
going to Iran that will have problems.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
And how do you know what vessels which while you.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Will board the vessel, is every vessel have search and
seizure whereby that the American Navy will come on the
boat and they will check its manifesto at its manifest
of where the boat's being, what goods it contains, and
where it's trying to go to. And if they suspect
that it's an Iranian vessel or a vessel carrying Iranian goods,
(02:49):
they will seize that boat and then take it away
and decide what to do with it.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
I can't imagine that Iranian vessels will be following all
of the checks and balances and crossing the t's and
dotting the eyes that kind of thing. I mean, what
ways can they make sure that it is an Iranian vessel?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Well, that there will be a register and they'll be
able to see what flag it flies beneath. But that's
the easy part. The hard part is when you've got
vessels from other countries like China or Russia which decide
to continue to trade with Iran and try to get
the oil out and America Seeds was one of their vessels.
And that's when it's going to get very sticky diplomatically,
because the Russians or the Chinese or any other countries
(03:31):
are going to say, we've got freedom of trade, and
America is going to say, no, VI's a blockade. We
control the situation. This used to work very well in
the nineteenth century. It doesn't work so well in the
twenty first century.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Why is that because.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
The world is more complicated, it's more economically integrated, and
that there's more exchange going between these areas of the
high seas and the territorial Sea. So historically it was
easier because you had fewer countries and less rules at place.
Now what Trump's done is he's dredged out a rule
from the nineteenth century. He's tried to update it to
(04:06):
the twenty first century, and it's going to hope that
all other countries are bide by it. But that will
be difficult.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
How much danger does that put those crews on US
vessels participating in this blockade.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
For a blockade to be lawful, it has to be effective,
which means that you have to have naval boats around
the ports and around the waterways so that they can
effectively control what they're trying to restrain. That means that
American vessels are going to be in around the straight
Orf Moves, they're going to be into Persian Gulf, in
the Gulf of Iman, and they're going to be effectively
(04:38):
in the war zone. This will be a high risk
situation because this is probably what Iran's been waiting for,
because now they'll be able to deploy what weapons that
they've got that could hit the American vessels. And so
whether you're looking at sea mines, sea droned fast attack boats,
or even missiles, this is where the risk will come
because not just for the American vessels which will be
(04:59):
trying to control the that's right, but also for any
neutral vessels where they stay like, okay, it's safe to
go through. Now, a lot of neutral vessels aren't going
to feel that safe because they know that Iran will
be aiming at them.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
And it's not really an insurance issue, as Trump may
have suggested as well, Hey you can still get insurance
for the straight for your vessel, but it's just more
expensive now. So the real issue here is putting people
don't want to put their crews at resk.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
It's partly people don't want to be shot at, which
is a reasonable human response, and also the economics of it,
because even although you can get insurance, it will drive
up the cost of the commodity that you're trying to sell.
And so this is what this means for a country
like New Zealand, is that we can continue to expect
that the price of the commodities in oil in particular
(05:45):
will continue to increase, not get cheaper and foreseeable future
if it has blockade worked seamlessly, if Iran did not
contest the blockade, and theory the shipping would flow. But
in reality they are probably going to go for an
knock out blow where they try to sink an American vessel,
or they're going to try to sink some neutral vessels,
and that will push the economic prices of all the
(06:07):
commodities that go through this straight up?
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Does this US blockade risk breaching the kind of the
broader principle of the freedom of navigation under the UN
Convention of the Law of the Seas?
Speaker 2 (06:21):
In simple terms, the rules of blockade trump the law
of the sea. But in theory, you can have a
blockade on Iran, but you've still got freedom of transit
for all non Iranian vessels and all vessels which turn
trade for Iran, So you've still got freedom of transit,
and in reality you haven't. In reality, what you've got
(06:42):
is a blocked waterway. But in theory they are different things,
and you can still have that freedom, and mister Trump
will be trying to make countries say it's safe to go, now,
bring your vessels through. But a lot of countries are
going to be saying, we don't consider it safe. We're
not going to do that. And the other thing mister
Trump will be trying to do is ask countries to
help with the blockade. But for countries like ourselves, we've
(07:02):
got to work out a do we support the blockade
or b do we object to the blockade? And so
it's not just a for having your military there, it's
also about whether you agree with this tool, which is legal,
which is going to make your costs more expensive.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
What would a successful blockade look like that.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
The Iranians are hemmed into the coastline, that there is
no firing of missiles or attack boats or drones or
sea mines, and that the traffic flows freely and gets
back to a regulated speed and everyone is safe. A
disastrous blockade is the exact opposite of that. And the
(07:43):
Americans try to control the seaway. The Iranians can test it,
but then you've got one step worse than that, which
is to protect the seaway, you've got to control the coastline.
Which would mean boots on the ground, and because that's
the only way often historically that you can control the team.
You don't want on deploying the mind or deploying the
drones or deploy the missiles. But if you put boots
(08:05):
on the ground, then the whole complexion of this war
would change very.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Quickly, and you'd be playing right into Iran's hands as well,
because that's exactly what it wants.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
This is the one chance they've got of leveling the
playing field. This would make it much easier to cook.
The superiority that America in Israel has over Iran right
now is in technology when they're at twelve thousand feet,
but when they're on the ground and the streets around
the coastal zones, they could quickly level up to a
much more equal combatted status point.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Over you said it was over nuclear.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
It was over nuclear.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Very similar, Yeah, very good.
Speaker 2 (08:44):
I guess you're listening. It's over the fact that they
will never have a nuclear weapon Iran. You're market it down.
Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and we agreed
to a lot of things, but they didn't agree to that,
and I think they will agree to I'm almost sure
of it.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
What do you think New Zealand's likely options for responding
to THEIRS. I suppose diplomatically, politically, or in terms of
just protecting ki We flagged vessels in the area.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
With ki We flagged vessels. If there are ke We
flagg vessels up there, we would have to work out
whether the government would encourage them to use the freedom
of transit. Known that the American Navy is backing it
and trying to make it safe, it's our first thing.
The second thing is whether we support the blockade or not.
I mean, it's a legal thing that mister Trump is doing.
(09:36):
Even though the war is illegal, this method is legal,
but we can still voice our opposition to it because
our foremost concern right now at this war is trying
to get prices down and trying to get the goods
to flow again, and having a blockade is probably not
in New Zealand's best interests. But whether we voice our
voice that or not, I'm not sure.
Speaker 1 (09:55):
So how might this blockade affect global oil prices?
Speaker 2 (10:00):
If Iran responds and takes the war back to America
or targets the neutral vessels going through the waterway, it
will become even more congested than it is now At
the moment, there's a trickle of boats going through. If
the blockade is applied, Iron contests that the trickle will stop.
The other risk is that it won't just be with
(10:21):
regard to the strain of for moves, it will also
be with the Red Sea because the Huthi, who Iran
also control have also have a capability to expand their
military capability in that ocean as well. And so right
now we're looking at one straight being blocked, not two waterways.
And the events the possibility if Iran decides to throw
everything into making basis difficult as possible.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
So suppose I suppose this is either it's a legal decision,
so that it's a legal blockade and it is a
high risk one. But what other options did Trump have.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Trump's not wrong to be defending the freedom of the
high seas and or the freedom of the seas and
the freedom of transit, obviously, and when they went to
the negotiations in Pakistan, he was correct not to allow
Iran to have that because it was one of the
things that they wanted, their ability to toll their vessels.
The problem is that this control that Iran has and
(11:13):
that it seeks, even though illegal under the law of
the sea, is one of the few powers that Iran
has right now, and it's linked to the war and
the failure of the diplomacy to get to this point.
And so even though Trump is right on the freedom
of disease, he's wrong on the other matters. But the
two of them are becoming overlapping. He knows he's got
(11:34):
to open up the high seas, or he knows he's
got to open up the straight but he hasn't got
many other tools to do it. What I expect he's
been trying to do is pressurize countries like France and
Britain and NATO to be part of the blockade. And
even though it's a lawful choice, these countries and groups
are saying, we're not going to get involved in the
illegal war. Other countries like China and Russia are delighted
(11:58):
because one mister Trump's in a mess. And for Russia,
the blockade means that the oil is now becoming very
valuable and obviousanctions against them because of the Ukraine War
and now been put in the waste paper basket, and
so having the blockade and Trump's continual mistakes suits Russia,
it suits China and the allies that mister Trump has
with NATO, and countries like France and Britain are taking
(12:19):
a step back because even though he's not wrong about
trying to open up the Strait, because it's connected to
legal war and illegal war, we won't get involved.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
Could taking any decision whatever it may be, even symbolic
support or kind of criticism of the blockade carry risks
for New Zealand's trade relationships with the US.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Mister Trump does not take criticism at all well, and
a lot of our policy has been trying not to
offend mister Trump. And so even though the wind there
are things which we strongly disagree with, will if we
say anything, we will say it the very nuanced language,
which is a difficult position to be in because many
of the things he's doing right now are outrageous, but
(13:03):
this principle, in particular the freedom of the oceans is
not outrageous. He is correct on this principle. The problem
is that he's a paper war between the freedom of
the oceans and the illegal war which is on the other side.
But he's got no easy solution right now. His alternative
if he walks away as he gives Iran the victory
that he fared to begin with. And not only would
(13:24):
they have their nuclear ambitions uncontrolled, they would also control
the waterway. And so he's really backed himself into a
corner right now, and it's for Iran to exploit this
more than America to open it up.
Speaker 1 (13:37):
So the next step of the war, if Trump were
to continue, would be boots on the ground. But how
likely is that when those boots will only be Israelian
US if the.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Strait can't be opened up. If the blockade requires occupation
of the coastal zone and he requires boots on the ground,
the next question is whose boots to go in there?
Because the last thing he will want his American boots,
and so he will try to influence other countries to
be part of his coalition. But right now, apart from Israel,
all of the like minded friends are staying very far
(14:09):
away from mister Trump, and the one group that might
be sympathetic, such as the Goods or some Iranean dissidents,
will also be scared about trying to put their people
organized in that area. Is it possible? It is possible,
and you can only look at historical examples like Gallipoli,
whereby you're trying to force us straight. It doesn't work.
You land or soldiers and every Australian and Kew we
(14:30):
knows are badly that went.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
I've seen some former allies and advisors even questioning Trump
back home whether he's gotten increasingly unbalanced. I saw some
describing him as a lunatic, another one is clearly insane.
The White House has obviously rejected these statements, saying he's
sharp and keeping his opponents on edge. Now, I can
imagine that's a pretty high threshold to get him out
(14:55):
of office. But what's it like back at home in
on US soil for him?
Speaker 2 (15:02):
The possibility of impeaching mister Trump or us An Article
twenty five, You're going to need two thirds of Congress
to do that, and that is very unlikely. It's possible
when you've had the congressional elections in November and there's
a change in the House of Representatives and it's a
change in the Senate, but you're going to need two
thirds majority in both parts, and he that does not
(15:27):
exist now. It may exist in November, but that's the
point that you'd have him removed from office before that point,
it's all just conjecture. But if you used some of
the language that mister Trump used, you would lose your job.
Or if you you've posted images of yourself as a messiah,
people would question your integrity. Yet he has lowered the
(15:48):
standard of what we expect for someone of the highest
office in the world. Yet there's nothing you can The
only people who can do something about this is the Americans,
and that will be in your election in November. But
he still has many supporters as well, and so you
know you're gonna be careful who you listen to here
because as much as there's a lot of concern about them,
and I think that's legitimate, there's also a strong support
(16:08):
base that Bluesy's doing the right thing.
Speaker 1 (16:10):
Thanks for joining us, OL, You're welcome, Chelsea. That's it
for this episode of The Front Page. You can read
more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enziherld
dot co dot enz. The Front Page is hosted and
produced by me Chelsea Daniels Caine. Dicky is our studio operator,
(16:32):
Richard Martin, our producer and editor, and our executive producer
is Jane Ye. Follow the Front Page on the iHeart
app or wherever you get your podcasts, and join us
next time for another look beyond the headlines.
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