February 13, 2026 • 41 mins
Westpac's economists are picking 6 consecutive OCR hikes from December - they're forecasting that it will hit 4% by the end of next year.
The OCR dropped to 2.25% just before Christmas, which is where it stands now, but there have been rumblings for some time that we'd start seeing hikes soon, as all major banks lifted long-term loan rates.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talk
SEDB this morning, Frison three little first, it's by my doorstep.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Send this sweet song.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
And welcome back to the Weekend Collective. I'm Tim Beverage.
And by the way, if you listen any of the hours,
go and check out our podcast. After six o'clock you
can just dial it up and not listen to your
heart's content at your leisure anyway. This it's the one
roof radio show. We want your calls on eight hundred
and eighty ten eighty. You can text on nine to
two nine two and look. West Pack economists. This is
(01:15):
It's pretty. It's a frightening Does it make your tense
up a little bit or catch your attention? At least?
Westpack's economists are picking six, yes, that's right, six consecutive
OCR hikes from December, and they're forecasting that the cash
rat all hit four percent by the end of next year.
Now it suddenly makes me realize, I don't actually know
(01:37):
what the number is right now at the top of
my head. Anyway, No I do, because I'm about to
read it. The OCR dropped to two point twenty five
percent just before Christmas, so that's where it is now.
But there have been rumblings for some time that we
would start seeing some hikes soon as all the major
banks of the list lifted their long term rates, which
is usually a signal that they reckon. Well, this is
(01:57):
going to start creeping up again. But what would a hike?
What do you think a hike would do to the market?
What does it mean for the market? You know, we've
had this market where, you know, it's been a fair
a bit lack luster of months. Some might say others
might be more negative or a little bit more positive,
but it hasn't been you know, it hasn't been rocking
and rolling, has it. So what does it mean for
what your plans are in the market? Or do you
(02:19):
think you know what? It doesn't mean anything whatever the
money is. I'm just I've got to buy a house.
I'm going to do it when it suits me. But
does that relate to the oci you're rushing it, rushing
off to buy, you're holding off? Why we want to
know what you think? O eight one hundred and eighty
ten eighty text nine nine two and to get stuck
into this. He is managing director at Harcourts Cooper and Co.
(02:41):
And his name is Martin Cooper and he's with us
for the one ROOFREDI show Martin, it is good to
see you. You're looking like you're looking wrapped up like
it's cold outside.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Well, you know, the sale GP's on today. I've just
driven over the Harbor Bridge and man, there's just sixty
knots of breeze out there. And wow, they were actually
the boats were going a lot faster than I was
getting across the Harbor Bridge. So that let's kicking off
right now. Yeah, the big grand semon that.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
We're actually talking to, we're talking to Jason Pine just
before sex to wrap it with sports, so he's going
to be in the heart of the action and giving
us the you know, the guts.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Yeah. Well, hopefully the New Zealand boat won't get chopped
in half today as it did last race. But big
crowd there, good atmosphere and I'm not encouraging your listeners
to tune in and watch TV. I just listen to us.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Just turn off your mic. At a moment they keep
talking about anyway, that was Martin Cooper. Anyway, Hey, anyway,
nice to see it. Now. Six consecutive OCR hikes. And
this is not just you know, somebody who's just given
(03:49):
me a call on one hundred and eighty ten eighty goa.
I reckon they're going to hike the you know, the
ocr six times. That's a lot of hikes. That is
quite a pessimistic view. Although two point two five percent
to four percent we've seen worse, but this is not
no what do you think do you think it's one?
Do you agree Martin?
Speaker 1 (04:09):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:10):
I think that you know, if you want to stand out,
to get a bit of publicity and a bit of press,
it pays to have a decent headline and something that
grabs attention. So I think the Westpac economists this Kelly
Echolt's been in the role since twenty twenty three. I
(04:32):
just feel like they're trying to grab a bit of
headline attention. You know, like six hikes in twenty twenty
seven seems ridiculous to me. And it's not encouraging to
be I mean, their job is to lend money. It's
not encouraging people really to lend money. And the other
fact of it is, I can see we'll have stability
(04:53):
of interest rates this year. I reckon the next official
cash rate announcement will stay the same, and I think
they could go nudge higher in twenty twenty seven. But
even the six hikes, it's a sensational headline.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Yeah, I mean it's not quite doubling, but it's getting
you know, it's two point twenty five cash rate to
four percent. Is that's a whack of an increase over
the course of a year, is it a bit of
a I mean, the problem is we've had those figures
around unemployment, oh sorry, inflation, and the unmployment figures haven't
(05:27):
been that flash. Although the target for the reserve banks
is to control inflation. But that's the thing. It did
just tweak up a bit more, didn't it.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
It did. It did tweak up a little bit more,
which was annoying. And I mean the glory days. The
official cash rate back in November twenty one here in
New Zealand was zero point two five percent, and it
did create a false property bubble. Money was effectively like
free people did jump in. They had fomo. They were
(06:01):
buying properties and not even thinking about it because it
was sheep to borrow money out. Their borrowing powers immense
at the moment, well not at the moment, but in
May it got up to twenty twenty three. It went
from zero point two five percent up to five point
five percent. And that's when we had the high interest
rates kicking us at about eight percent, and that was
(06:24):
not much fun. So if the official cash rate does
go up to around that four percent, it's still in
a it's an okay sort of affordable zone.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
It's not catastrophe, but you just don't think it'll go
that it does. I think the thing that stood out
for me is six hikes. So bang up, bang up again,
up again, up again, up again, up again, which does
feel I mean that in itself, just the fact of
six ocr hikes sounds kind of I read the market chillingly,
a little bit frightening.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
I read the article and it's in headlines. It was
six hikes in capital letters. So it's driven to probably
generate clickbait, you know, to get you to read the story.
In fact, I had that myself two weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
I'm just well, you generated clickbait with and Cooper headline.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
I've been a clickbait. And I've got this sort of
funny relationship with Anne Gibson. She's the lady that writes
a property reporter for the Herald. So I've never known
her to let the facts get in the way of
a good headline, quite frankly, and she got stuck into
me over a company I put into liquidation, Okay, okay,
(07:37):
and the headline was I've got my company Harkwotz, Cooper
and co goes at the liquidation, I owned credit as
five hundred and fourteen thousand dollars, which is not a
good headline. And then you have to click to find
the full story. The reality is, if you went on
too the full story, you'd actually and she'd read the report,
you'd find out I was the credit to owed the money.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
So what I find is sometimes actually sometimes think that
people I don't know, this is getting off topic, but
I sometimes think the headline writer is not necessarily the
person who's write the article, but who knows Ida.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Maybe in her defense because we get on all right,
But here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
This is all right still as long as she's not listening.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Yeah, she might be at the sale GP. I hope
she doesn't fall in the water. But I'll tell you
what I would say that the headline on that, to
me is a bit extreme. So if you're thinking of
buying a house. You can fix your interest rate now
and do it for five years, and as long as
you're going to afford it now, I'd suggest you go
for it, because there are great reports coming through by
(08:38):
other economists that are going to see four percent growth
and probably values this year. Yeah, and possibly five percent
through twenty twenty seven, which somewhat compensates for the interest
you're paying.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Okay, so does that mean let's I think we should
just settle in the middle. So I'm going to go So,
given you were mentioning the forecast for the property market, well,
there have been some people saying four maybe five percent,
and then we've got the oc predictions of clients coming
up to four percent by the West Back economists. So
(09:08):
I'm going to go with I think there'll be two
or three rises, and I think there will have a
chilling effect in its own and I think that'll do
the job, and yet it will chill the market to
the extent we'll maybe see just another two or three
percent growth. That's my sitting in the middle thing, and
it's based on absolutely zero experience except doing the show
What do You Reckon?
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Martin?
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Well, I think that is about where it'll fall. There
will be a nudge increase in twenty twenty seven, only
subject to global economies, but quite frankly saying it's going
to go up in a big headline six hikes. I'd
be like Donald Trump, I think that's fake news. I
think you're more on the money, You're more in the mark.
But hey, you know a broken clock is right twice
(09:52):
a day, and so you know it's all speculation.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Are you okay, Let's put it this way. This is
your business, you know, in the business of buying and
selling houses, and people will want to buy and sell
houses regardless of though. You want to see more activity
in the market. Are you worried about headlines? Do they
irritate you? From the point of view is that you
don't think they're just wrong, but they have a chilling
effect on something that is from every New Zealander buying
(10:17):
in something property. It's one of the biggest decisions you've
ever made. Do you think does it concern you if
you think they're wrong, that this is Look, come on,
this is ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
The mood of the people, the sentiment, the feeling, the vibe.
You know, we'll just vibrations of energy. But if you
have endless amounts of headlines on negativity. You know, the
previous government before this one didn't like property investors. They
started calling property investors rampant speculators, you know, maram Pass.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
That's right, it was speculation was the word. Oh your speculator.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Yeah, now a lot of those. I know one guy,
and Devenport owns a lot of properties. He actually never
puts the rent up. He's a fantastic bloke. He buys them,
he's got a good business, likes to invest in property.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
And he enjoys his tenants when he looks after people.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
He's a fantastic bloke. But he got lumped in, Oh
you're a property owner, you're a rampant speculator. So the
sentiment and mood, we saw a real decline in people
getting into property investment because they were getting beaten up
in the media. They were talking threatened to capital gains,
tax interest rates were going to go up, and all
these sort of things. That tax deductibility came off. So
(11:32):
when you when you headline that sort of thing, it
does deter people's actions. You know, if you're going to
take a holiday and there's there's negative press about violence
and crime and whatever it taints you. You just think,
I won't go there, I'll park it.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
I sort of feel that, you know, because we had
we did have some really heady times in property when
the markets, you know, when the markets, you know, it
was like a no brainer to get into property. It's like, well,
you know, you've just got to get in their leverage
and the capital growth will do it. It feels that
the narrative, regardless of what the Westpac economists say, it
(12:09):
feels that the narrative around that model of property investing
has taken a reasonably hard hit. Is that fair?
Speaker 4 (12:16):
It's fair. I like where we're at now.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
You know, it feels more in balance, much.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
More in balance. You know, if you can afford to
buy home with the interest rates the way they are now,
if you're a young couple and you've got a key
we saver account and you've saved up a bit of
money and you can afford a deposit, if you've had
a bit of money put away, and you are now
in a position the balance in Auckland, this is I'm
not speaking for the rest of New Zealand, but the
Auckland market you can actually now go and buy something
(12:44):
and for what you're paying in rent, you can match
it for what you pay in principle and interest on
a loan, so you get on the property ladder. And
it's good with interest rates at the level they are
now because it gives people a start and they're not.
And also, if everyone's burning all their money paying it
to the banks for intro, people have got a lot
(13:06):
of money, unfortunately, not us in this room here. I
always think I'd love for you one of those people
that's lending money out instead of borrowing money.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
I'd like to get your wealth and MIC wealth will
combine and split it into and I think I'll be
the winner.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
I got a couple of years on you, though.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Okay, hey listen, we want to know what you think
about this. So Westpac they've predicted six ocr heights and
that the official cash rate will hit four percent by
the end of next year. Now it's two point twenty
five percent. Now do you agree with that or and
what was your reaction to that? Because I found that
(13:46):
a startling headline or was it a startling and mildly
mischievous prediction in your boots? But then again, they're economists,
They're not you know, they're not speculators. I mean they're
economists for a bank. That's what they reckon. What do
you think, oh, eight hundred eighty ten to eighty and
what does it mean for the market? Does it have
a further chilling effect? That means so, I don't know what.
How does that affect your plans? Eight hundred eight We
want your reckons. That's what we want your reckons on.
(14:08):
Eight hundred and eighty ten and eighty text nine to
nine two. My guest is Martin Cooper. He's managing director
at Hardwarts, Cooper and Co. And he's with us and
take new calls after this. It's twenty past four. Yes,
News Talk said B welcome back. My guest is Martin
Cooper's managing director of Harwartz, Cooper and Co. Talking about
the cash rate prediction of the Westpac that it's going
(14:28):
to go up. What does it mean?
Speaker 5 (14:30):
Um?
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Okay, get some texts here by the way if you
want to jump the queue and then give us a
call on O. Eight hundred eighty ten and eighty says
Hi Tim Well. I think the lower OCR rate is
great for the new for the new home buyer, the
lower one is great for the new home buyer, and
an increase, as you've mentioned, would not be good for
them as a pensioner. It's great for a lot of
us because it affects what term deposits are going to
(14:54):
be at the moment. So, well, that's the thing. There's
a ying, there's a yin yang, isn't there Martin? I mean,
while there's cheap money, the people who are relying on
investing their money for a bit of worse off. I
don't know what you what are you? What's your response
to that?
Speaker 4 (15:09):
It's definitely the way you see things because imagine when
the official cash rate was so high, if you had
money on deposit, was a good steady You still had
to pay tax on it, but it was still a
really good earner, wasn't it.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Actually? So where are the interest rates at with borrowing?
So there's this prediction. I mean, here's the thing that
banks are predicting. The o CR rate is going to
go up, even if they don't say it, aren't they
because you can tell from what the borrowing rates are,
how the long is it what goes up? First? I
think it's the long term rate goes up, doesn't It
(15:46):
is a genuine.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
They set the rates out as far as five years
you can get floating rate because it.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Was a time you get five years for four point
nine to nine. Well that's now five point nine nine?
Is that is my memory? Except for me correctly there,
I think so, yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
You probably can get five point five shop around at
the moment, but for five years. I was a couple
of about about two months ago that all the rates
were under five percent, you know, even the five year
rate was at four point nine nine.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
What do you find most biased?
Speaker 5 (16:21):
You?
Speaker 3 (16:21):
I mean your your businesses and buying and selling property.
But do you how often do you discuss discuss more?
Speaker 4 (16:28):
Yeah, well it's really interesting. I know one guy that
had three different splits on his mortgage. You know, he's
running it like a stock market, some fixed, some floating in,
some over long rates and short rates. And I personally
have always just gone just floating and taken what had come.
(16:51):
But I remember Tony Alexander when he was telling us
when rates were, when the official cash rate was at
two point zero point two five, you could get five
years at two point nine to five per cent. And
he came and talked to our team, and I heard
him three times saying one piece of advice, I can
(17:11):
give you a lock in five years at two point
nine five percent, But I was enjoying low interest rates
and I didn't listen to that part of his presentation.
But then then we're up to seven percent. I thought,
you know, why, why didn't I listen? And the next
time I saw him, I said, Tony, just don't give
me all the waffle a whole lot of presentation. Just
(17:34):
tell me the one point that I need to act on.
Because he told me a whole lot of other things.
I missed the key point.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Did you step out of the room for a moment
or something?
Speaker 4 (17:44):
Well, I just remember thinking why didn't I listen? Because
imagine if you'd locked in a chunky mortgage at two
point and then it cranks up and well, I had
one loan.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
That that's for say the average. So if you've got
a loan of let's just go four hundred, three hundred undred.
Speaker 4 (18:01):
Thousands, very uncommon, just to have a mortgage at four
hundred and four first time buy in Auckland.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
First time by you'd be five six seven plus, So okay,
six hundred thousand. That's a difference of well, the difference
in what you could have got it for that's three
or four percent, that's you know, sixteen thousand. No, no,
there's about twenty odd grand a year. That's the difference.
I do think maybe some of those people on big
mortgages got the right advice.
Speaker 4 (18:27):
Not everybody, and that's partly why we had the slow
down in the economy. There was no money slashing around.
People had had to put their money into their mortgage.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
Somebody's having a crack at the new Reserve Bank governor.
As if this is part of the conversation the new
Reserve Bank governor, we wouldn't hear and we won't hear
anything from her about this about this because they make
the announcement. When they make the announcement, this is bank economists.
I'm just making the point. Somebody's having a crack at
(18:59):
it's Anna Bremen. I think that's right. Yeah, yeah, whereas
the Reserve Bank themselves wouldn't say a thing about it,
would they.
Speaker 4 (19:08):
They'll comment on what their actions are when they make
their statement. There's an official cash rate announcement I think
on the eighteenth of February, so there'll be commentary around that.
And I certainly know that our Minister of Finance, Nikola
willis she's just instigrat an inquiry on the actions of
the Reserve.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Bank panel and the question around whether that was cynical
timing or not, which is it's all academic. It was
an inquiry had to happen, and.
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Yeah, but if you think about it, there's supposed to
be impartiality between the Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank.
But you've also got to think about what is better
for the greater economy of our country, employment, for well being,
mental health, all these things. There should be some i
(19:56):
think collaboration to balance out interest rates at a reasonable
level for the country and the economy.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
By the way, somebody texted us to saying, can you
explain the OCR rate?
Speaker 5 (20:08):
What is that?
Speaker 3 (20:10):
Well, it's probably worth mentioning actually, because sometimes these jargons
and abbreviations get mentioned as if we all know what
they are. Okay, So the OCR is the interest rate
that's set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and
it's basically the wholesale cost of money for commercial banks.
I think they've got that right, and so the OC
you know, there's always a markup because of the bank's lending.
(20:30):
But that's the right description isn't It's basically the wholesale
rate at which banks can cost get their money for,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Yeah, that temperature, it's the affordability of finance that everyone
has the same playing field.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
What do you what do you think a hike on
the OCR regardless of how many and how far, because okay,
we're at two point two five percent, if there was
a bit of a hike and let's say it just
went up to three percent, does that make any any
material difference to your business what you do as a
(21:04):
buyer and seller, as an agent for bars and for sellers.
Speaker 4 (21:07):
It just it does make a material difference on the affordability.
So if you have a classics, so you've got two
a couple, ones a teacher and one's a cop. You
know they've got their fixed income and they're both saving money.
They won't both want to go and buy a home.
So if the official cash rate it was if they're
(21:29):
borrowing money at four percent, if they can get some
money at four percent, they can afford for their income
to pay the interest up to a certain level. If
the if the interest cost goes up to six percent
or seven percent, it means they just can't. They can't
afford it, so they can borrow less, so their reach,
their ability to pay more is diminished. The higher the rates,
(21:51):
the less they can pay, so that does affect the price.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
It's funny because some people think, off the rates go up,
it'll make properties, you know, it'll keep the pressure down,
the pressure on property. But in terms of if you're
a buyer who has to borrow, you're having to might
it not have to borrow as much as you would
have cash remained if the cost of borrowing was lower.
(22:16):
How do I put this on? I've got myself tied
and knots here. But some people think, oh, well, an
interest rate hike will keep prices down, and that's good
news for buyers. But then again, the buyers are having
to pay more for the money they borrow. That's what
I was trying to say.
Speaker 4 (22:28):
Does that make sense now that you put it that way,
I think this makes complete sense and exactly that's exactly
what it is.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
So how are things? How would you describe where the
market's at right now and what it was doing.
Speaker 4 (22:43):
I've been in real estate for so many decades, and
I've always been I've preferred to be optimistic in the
outlook positive and put a spin on things. So we
did have a great increase in volume, energy, and mood.
It started to flow through September, October, sorry, October, November
(23:05):
and December of last year. And December was brilliant. We sold,
We did more business than we'd done any month for
the past four years proceeding so, and it had been
a little bit lean but a bit patchy, you know
before that. So I thought, helllujah, this is excellent. We're
heading in. You know, the drought's broken. We're off again.
(23:28):
So we slightly ahead for January and now slightly ahead
this time for slightly but not like the taps on
and the flows going. I just wanted the taps to
go full on. I suppose what's the tap full on?
Meaning the flow, the flow of transactions, because that's.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
That's that's where you guys make money as agents. You
just want an up market that's active. Yeah, I mean
you're you're your vested interest and prices going gang busters.
I mean that's not really what you want. You just
want to market where sellers and buyers have confidence. And
now it's the time to sell a buy, isn't it confidence.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
To make a decision. I've got a good friend who's
got a car dealership, a whole lot of them, seven
hundred cars on the lots, and I had breakfast with
him on Friday, and he was just saying, I just
I just wish people would come in with confidence and
make a buy, you know, make a buying decision. Everything's
a haggle, everything's a concern about and some of the
(24:32):
things still concerns about employment. You know, will I have
a job this time next year? Should I borrow money?
There's still a conservatism about general holding back. It's not
they're just we need to all get down to at
square and say we're all going to be all right,
have a big hug, and get people to make decisions
and get on with it.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Which is actually why I would say that I would
hope that the Westpac economists are wrong, because there are
so I don't if if something needs to have a
handbrake on it. In terms of inflation, I don't think
it's going to take six ocr rises for that to happen.
You just need a couple of rises in the whole market.
Everyone is going to.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
Go, oh, look, here's the thing. If you average out
what all the other economists is saying it's going to
be a stable ride through twenty twenty six with our
interest rates and a possible nudge higher in twenty twenty seven.
It's not going to be as bad as the headline
grabbing Westpac statement is. In my opinion, Hey, time will
(25:31):
tell we can be back here at the end of
twenty twenty seven and see who was right now.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
How often have you predicted the future for the property
market and gone and nailed.
Speaker 4 (25:40):
At that air occasionally I do. I do remember in
the COVID lockdown in terms of predictions, we had a
big hardcourts zoom, you know, all the business owners because
we were locked out of our businesses, and we had
some American futurist or expert telling us that we were doomed.
The market was going to drop back, prices were going
(26:01):
to crash, eighty percent of the transactions would be reduced.
And I thought, if I tell my team that when
they're all locked at home worried about in the future,
So I pushed back and said, no, no, our home
will become our castle. People will find there'll be many
separations and divorces, and people will find their house is
(26:23):
their castle and the or their home is important, they'll
work from home, they'll need to change a lot. I
made that prediction and it turned out we had that
flurry later, so people thought, but it was only a guesstimate.
I didn't know. I don't have a crystal ball, so
I've been right a couple of times.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Yeah, Hey, I don't actually understand this text. I'm like,
I don't know if my producering shit shed line it.
Somebody says, address the elephant in the room, Judith, and
I'm thinking, what is that all about? Is that just
Judith Colins leaving politics or something? Anyway, text, do you'll
need to actually expand and what your thoughts were? But
this other one says, and I'm not sure if you'd
be so much interested in this Martin. It says, what
(27:01):
ask Martin? What was Adrian or the worst ever government?
It's not it's not really a question. Would bother you
too much? Whether he was good or bad?
Speaker 6 (27:09):
Would it?
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Or?
Speaker 4 (27:12):
Look the commentary I've picked up and I've met him
various functions and a very personable chat. But he just
got too much control, and you know, the bank funding,
the garant just tighten things up far too much, and
(27:33):
the triple CFA. That legislation when that came in, you know,
protect to protect people from loan sharks, all that sort
of thing, far far too oppressive. It tightened up credit,
it tightened up the banks, and we saw a distinct
decline in home ownership and home transactions. So there's not
(27:53):
many people out there in the business community that I
bumped into that. I think that he was good, and
there's more people please that someone else has moved in
the feedback I get.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Okay, let's go to the phones.
Speaker 6 (28:08):
Roger did I Oh, hello there, Hi, I have a
question for you. Okay, why should New Zealanders pay interest
on mortgages?
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Actually, first, before I throw that to Martin, why do
you think that? Why do you think they shouldn't?
Speaker 6 (28:29):
Well, if the economy is run for the benefit of
New Zealanders and we know that money is issued in
a circulation by the banks from nothing, New Zealanders could
pay zero interest rates and benefit, why is the benefit
going to the bank.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
Hey, the banks. I've been very frustrated when I see
the margins that the banks make. But they're not as
I've moaned and groaned about it. They are publicly listed companies.
The banks. You can go and buy sheares and the
bank and benefits.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
Well, I guess you're asking, why do we have inflation then,
isn't it? I mean, nothing, nothing comes for free? Why
would I'm not sure you probably ask I can explain
to an economist to let me explain it to you. Okay,
here we go.
Speaker 6 (29:26):
When you go to a bank and you borrow a mortgage,
the banks issue new money into circulation. They do not
lend you money from deposits. That means that means there's
a zero cost to creating money. Why isn't the benefit
of the zero cost money passed to use zealanders into
(29:50):
that of the banks.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
I'm not sure that that's the right I've looked into
I remember looking into this question as somebody was saying,
you know that when banks lend, do they just lend
on thin air? And and I can't rememb what the
response was, but you can probably you probably google it
and then you get a fairly efficient response.
Speaker 6 (30:09):
But this I can tell you the answer. Now, what
when you go into the bank and you sign the security,
the banks create new money. Yeah, that new money is
created at zero cost to the banks. So why are
the banks getting the benefit of interest when that benefit
(30:30):
could be passed straight to New Zealand people.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Yeah, but how do you pick which people get an
interest free loan? You know, everyone would want to borrow money,
people have to that have to pay something for having
that money.
Speaker 6 (30:46):
Why.
Speaker 4 (30:48):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
If we had a bank economist here, they could probably
explain it quite well to.
Speaker 6 (30:51):
Tell us you don't need a bank economists. They would
probably tell a lot of rubbish. The bottom line is
that the money fee system has been run for the
benefit of the bankers.
Speaker 3 (31:00):
Well, hang on, but the thing is. The thing is
the bank are responsible for that money that they've lent.
So if you default on the mortgage and somehow it's
the bank that's out of pocket, there is still there's
an asset and there's a liability.
Speaker 6 (31:12):
There's less luck. There's less chance of defaulting on a
mortgage that's issued free of interest. The benefit would pass
to the people.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
Roger. Look, look, I just get people to look that
up on AI. I mean that's you know, I'm not
suddenly going to question the whole nature of the banking system,
because frankly there be other people who get answered the
question much more efficiently than I could. But no one's gonna.
I'm not going to lend you, Roger. If I could summer,
if I could lend Roger half a million dollars and
I could just pull the money out of thin air.
(31:44):
I'm not just going to lend it to you for
nothing because I can do that, because guess what if
you default, then I have to pay that money. There's
a cost to everything in life. It's like, I mean,
why is there. I don't know how to answer that question,
but it is predicated on something I do. Here A
lot of talk back on it gets people sort of triggered.
Speaker 4 (32:00):
But Roger, if you get this off the ground, if
you can get it going, I'd like some of that money.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
Yeah, And they also have to hold sharehold equity against
risky lending. And remember the bank is responsible for the
money that it's that it has lent to you. So
if you default, it doesn't just.
Speaker 4 (32:17):
Believe default that much. If you've got no interest to pay, well,
you've still got one.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
No, you might not be able to meet the obligations
of paying the money back. I guess actually the whole
nature it's a fantastic. Questions like that are always interesting
because you have to stop and go, Yeah, why do
I assume that. So, I mean, I appreciate you calling Roger,
but there be other people who can answer that question
better than me. It's eighteen In fact, I think our
next caller might have a response to it, but who knows.
It's eighteen minutes to five News Talks, he B News
(32:44):
Talks he B with Tim Beveridge, and my guest is
Martin Cooper of Harcourts Cooper and co.
Speaker 6 (32:50):
Tim.
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Hello, Okay, guys, missing the point. The OC goes up
because we borrow the money from overseas. That's why as
all our deficits so high, fifty five million dollars was
borrowed overseas money, yeah, which we have to serve, and
then borrowed to the bank through bonds and so forth
to the margin. That's why Americans in so much trouble
(33:12):
with a trillion dollar debt. It's all overseas money. And
when they talk about printing money, when they create more
money in the economy, it's like dilate it. They dilute
the money in the economy. It's like when they share
gets split. So the reality is the ocr gorried up
as simply a concern about our affliction to borrow and
(33:33):
pay back overseas money. That's why they talk about GDP.
We're around fifty five percent, so we're borrowing money overseas
at the banks and turn get and distributed and make
a margin and positive and so forth. There's no such
thing as free money.
Speaker 3 (33:49):
Yeah, it's always look actually, it's always interesting. People ask
you questions which make you make you go, actually, why
is this the way it is? Because it's always worth,
you know, stopping to actually think how does the banking
system work and why does it work like that? I
don't object to the question, and it's just that I'm
not the best qualified to answer it.
Speaker 5 (34:08):
It's all effectively an international money go around the countries
by China of borrowing money at the bat Sweden and Germany.
I think he's no borrowing of something like multi trillions
of dollars money borrowing up the world in the long
term and someone is at zero interest and that's our
working system is just an almighty creditism around the world,
(34:30):
of which we unfortunately have the New Zealand spit of
borrower rather than they'll end it.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
Yeah, it's a bit. The analogy someone gave me is
it's a bit like anything that you're not paying. You're
not paying for the money. You're paying for getting thirty
years of purchasing power instead of earning it over thirty years.
So banks create the loan, but if you don't repay it,
that's the risk to them. And interest is the price
of taking that risk. That seems like a reasonable analogy
to it.
Speaker 5 (34:56):
And the more the risk for the country, the higher
we have to pay the OCR. And the OCR goes
up the countries bunches that are in financial using way
too much of the three or four.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
I mean, God, you look at the United States and
deadness too by not that it's a property related issue
so much, but everything You know that the United States
sneeze as we all catch a cold. But yeah, hey,
thanks Tim, I appreciate you call go by it. In fact,
the quick summary, bee, interest isn't the price of money.
It's the price of time, risk and early access to
something you couldn't otherwise afford. Yet, so there we go.
(35:34):
Oh we got distracted by banking talk, didn't we, Martin?
Did it make your head spin? A bit made my
hand did for me. I'll tell you what we need
to take quick break. We'll be back in just tickets
twelve minutes to five News Talk said b.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
The one roof property of the week on the Weekend Collective, Yes.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
And the one roof property of the week, Well, it
is an absolute ripper. And the thing is, look, I
do have a suspicion that my producer quite likes it
as well because it is a rather grand looking country
style residents and it is the address is and I
would suggest do go and have a look. It is
(36:10):
sixteen E Davidson Lane, Tommaherty and Waikato. Six bedrooms, four bathrooms,
four car garage. The house is four hundred and thirty
three square meters. The land is seven thousand square meters.
It's a massive it's sort of a chateau. It looks
like it's ivy covered. I actually am going to hand
(36:32):
over to Martin Cooper to give us a bit of
a description on this, because that's the business Martins and
as well. But Martin, what was your first impression of
the property of the week.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
Is the wow type property? The depth of the fabrics,
the colors, the ceiling height and the setting. It's exceptional.
It's sort of almost like a movie.
Speaker 3 (36:58):
It does look like a it's I mean, it's aimed slightly.
It looks like some sort of looks like a sort
of country version of the Northern Club. Doesn't it fun?
Speaker 4 (37:09):
Actually, it does look awesome and it's so worthwhile. The
address can you say the address again? Those people?
Speaker 3 (37:15):
It was for sixteen E Davidson Lane, Tomahery and whitcutto.
Speaker 4 (37:19):
Just for a bit of It's like real estate candy.
You should go on and look at this place and
have a dream or have a thought. Hey, we sold
a property to a guy that won lotto a couple
of weeks back, did you Yeah? Yeah, And my agent said, like,
we're not naming the person, but he spent four minutes
(37:39):
looking at property.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
And snap Board paid cash. He could have bought this.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
I'll tell you what, I guarantee if we took him
to this one, it'll be snap again. It's just such
a cool house. I think it's for tender. So I
looked on one of you know the portals. It's going
to be somewhere over three miles. I still a reasonable investment,
but it looks well. I live in the whitehadow for this,
and I'll tell you what. Have a look at the drive.
(38:05):
It's honestly like you're going it's.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Way is it's basically the ceiling of beautiful trees and
leaves hanging over it. It's a real I mean, it
is an opulent kitchen. It looks like it's got an
argas stove. For those who know they're stoves, they'll be
not necessarily surprise because it's a bit of a it's
the sort of one of the gold standards in sort
of country style, old fashioned but amazing stoves. And it
(38:29):
is kind of the dining room is a little Harry
Potter for me. It's got that.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
It's got that sort of old fashion elegance to it
doesn't it's not far from Hobbiton. Not the house, but
the you know, so this is where the King of
Hobbiton would live. Like it's it's got the character charm.
It's a real statement.
Speaker 3 (38:49):
Yeah, what's what's the thing that you look at if
you're walking into a house, when you're looking at these photos,
is there a room that is a make or break
for you? Because when I was looking at it, I mean,
it's it's very grand. It's it's not it's not a
sort of as you'll flop down on the couch hang
out sort of house. Is that it's quite grand. It's
(39:11):
absolutely beautiful, the furnishings and everything. But the thing that
I always go for is I thought, well, let's see
what the kitchen's like. And the kitchen is quite gorgeous.
So I like the kitchen and the outdoor living side.
That's the first thing I go for.
Speaker 5 (39:26):
What do you go for?
Speaker 4 (39:29):
I actually, well, I find that I'll ring people and
say thanks for buying a home office doing a survey,
and you just say, well, why did you choose that one?
And the weird thing is nine times out of ten
it felt right.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
It just felt right.
Speaker 4 (39:44):
So there's different strokes for different folks. Some people like
the outdoor setting, the aspect of the sun, the neighborhood.
And that's why I don't think we're going to be
replaced by AI or computers as real estate people, because
every home is unique and every person's taste is unique.
So the main thing is you just got to get
(40:04):
out and look at it. I don't even like buying
properties or things. I don't like buying clothes anything offline.
I want to see it, smell it, feel it, touch it,
and you should get down and have a look at this.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
If I won lotto, and I bought the reason. I'd
love to buy a house like that and just invite
people to my place for a barbecue without telling them anything,
and they'd all be turning up and they going. They'd
be going, I don't know this is the addressy gabbus,
But I don't think that's good yet.
Speaker 4 (40:28):
It'd be a self esteem builder.
Speaker 3 (40:30):
In fact, you just address this can't be Tim's place?
Speaker 4 (40:34):
No, should they pay?
Speaker 3 (40:35):
I'm surecasting I'm sure he's mistyped that address in there.
Speaker 6 (40:38):
Well.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
To be honest, if you won lot and wanted to
keep it a secret, you would not buy this house
because they'd be like, Okay, something's happened. He's won the lotter. Hey,
good to see Martin. What's the week looking store for you?
Speaker 4 (40:52):
Well, I'm just I'm off to Melbourne for a one
day conference just tomorrow, back on Monday. And that's uplifting
because I meet with a lot of other business owners
and we share ideas and then sleeves up auction businesses
cranking out some great results. So we're full steam ahead. God,
despite the west back predictions of the hikes and interest rates,
(41:12):
we're going ahead positively excellent.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
Well check out Harcourts, Cooper and co and Hei. Great
to have you in the studio again, mate, good to
see you, Thank you. We'll be back in just tomorrow
with John Cowen for Parenting. We'll be taking your calls
at one hundred and eighty ten to eighty.
Speaker 1 (41:31):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks EDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talk
SEDB this morning, Frison three little first, it's by my doorstep.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Send this sweet song.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
And welcome back to the Weekend Collective. I'm Tim Beverage.
And by the way, if you listen any of the hours,
go and check out our podcast. After six o'clock you
can just dial it up and not listen to your
heart's content at your leisure anyway. This it's the one
roof radio show. We want your calls on eight hundred
and eighty ten eighty. You can text on nine to
two nine two and look. West Pack economists. This is
(01:15):
It's pretty. It's a frightening Does it make your tense
up a little bit or catch your attention? At least?
Westpack's economists are picking six, yes, that's right, six consecutive
OCR hikes from December, and they're forecasting that the cash
rat all hit four percent by the end of next year.
Now it suddenly makes me realize, I don't actually know
(01:37):
what the number is right now at the top of
my head. Anyway, No I do, because I'm about to
read it. The OCR dropped to two point twenty five
percent just before Christmas, so that's where it is now.
But there have been rumblings for some time that we
would start seeing some hikes soon as all the major
banks of the list lifted their long term rates, which
is usually a signal that they reckon. Well, this is
(01:57):
going to start creeping up again. But what would a hike?
What do you think a hike would do to the market?
What does it mean for the market? You know, we've
had this market where, you know, it's been a fair
a bit lack luster of months. Some might say others
might be more negative or a little bit more positive,
but it hasn't been you know, it hasn't been rocking
and rolling, has it. So what does it mean for
what your plans are in the market? Or do you
(02:19):
think you know what? It doesn't mean anything whatever the
money is. I'm just I've got to buy a house.
I'm going to do it when it suits me. But
does that relate to the oci you're rushing it, rushing
off to buy, you're holding off? Why we want to
know what you think? O eight one hundred and eighty
ten eighty text nine nine two and to get stuck
into this. He is managing director at Harcourts Cooper and Co.
(02:41):
And his name is Martin Cooper and he's with us
for the one ROOFREDI show Martin, it is good to
see you. You're looking like you're looking wrapped up like
it's cold outside.
Speaker 4 (02:51):
Well, you know, the sale GP's on today. I've just
driven over the Harbor Bridge and man, there's just sixty
knots of breeze out there. And wow, they were actually
the boats were going a lot faster than I was
getting across the Harbor Bridge. So that let's kicking off
right now. Yeah, the big grand semon that.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
We're actually talking to, we're talking to Jason Pine just
before sex to wrap it with sports, so he's going
to be in the heart of the action and giving
us the you know, the guts.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Yeah. Well, hopefully the New Zealand boat won't get chopped
in half today as it did last race. But big
crowd there, good atmosphere and I'm not encouraging your listeners
to tune in and watch TV. I just listen to us.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Just turn off your mic. At a moment they keep
talking about anyway, that was Martin Cooper. Anyway, Hey, anyway,
nice to see it. Now. Six consecutive OCR hikes. And
this is not just you know, somebody who's just given
(03:49):
me a call on one hundred and eighty ten eighty goa.
I reckon they're going to hike the you know, the
ocr six times. That's a lot of hikes. That is
quite a pessimistic view. Although two point two five percent
to four percent we've seen worse, but this is not
no what do you think do you think it's one?
Do you agree Martin?
Speaker 1 (04:09):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:10):
I think that you know, if you want to stand out,
to get a bit of publicity and a bit of press,
it pays to have a decent headline and something that
grabs attention. So I think the Westpac economists this Kelly
Echolt's been in the role since twenty twenty three. I
(04:32):
just feel like they're trying to grab a bit of
headline attention. You know, like six hikes in twenty twenty
seven seems ridiculous to me. And it's not encouraging to
be I mean, their job is to lend money. It's
not encouraging people really to lend money. And the other
fact of it is, I can see we'll have stability
(04:53):
of interest rates this year. I reckon the next official
cash rate announcement will stay the same, and I think
they could go nudge higher in twenty twenty seven. But
even the six hikes, it's a sensational headline.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
Yeah, I mean it's not quite doubling, but it's getting
you know, it's two point twenty five cash rate to
four percent. Is that's a whack of an increase over
the course of a year, is it a bit of
a I mean, the problem is we've had those figures
around unemployment, oh sorry, inflation, and the unmployment figures haven't
(05:27):
been that flash. Although the target for the reserve banks
is to control inflation. But that's the thing. It did
just tweak up a bit more, didn't it.
Speaker 4 (05:39):
It did. It did tweak up a little bit more,
which was annoying. And I mean the glory days. The
official cash rate back in November twenty one here in
New Zealand was zero point two five percent, and it
did create a false property bubble. Money was effectively like
free people did jump in. They had fomo. They were
(06:01):
buying properties and not even thinking about it because it
was sheep to borrow money out. Their borrowing powers immense
at the moment, well not at the moment, but in
May it got up to twenty twenty three. It went
from zero point two five percent up to five point
five percent. And that's when we had the high interest
rates kicking us at about eight percent, and that was
(06:24):
not much fun. So if the official cash rate does
go up to around that four percent, it's still in
a it's an okay sort of affordable zone.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
It's not catastrophe, but you just don't think it'll go
that it does. I think the thing that stood out
for me is six hikes. So bang up, bang up again,
up again, up again, up again, up again, which does
feel I mean that in itself, just the fact of
six ocr hikes sounds kind of I read the market chillingly,
a little bit frightening.
Speaker 4 (06:55):
I read the article and it's in headlines. It was
six hikes in capital letters. So it's driven to probably
generate clickbait, you know, to get you to read the story.
In fact, I had that myself two weeks ago.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
I'm just well, you generated clickbait with and Cooper headline.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
I've been a clickbait. And I've got this sort of
funny relationship with Anne Gibson. She's the lady that writes
a property reporter for the Herald. So I've never known
her to let the facts get in the way of
a good headline, quite frankly, and she got stuck into
me over a company I put into liquidation, Okay, okay,
(07:37):
and the headline was I've got my company Harkwotz, Cooper
and co goes at the liquidation, I owned credit as
five hundred and fourteen thousand dollars, which is not a
good headline. And then you have to click to find
the full story. The reality is, if you went on
too the full story, you'd actually and she'd read the report,
you'd find out I was the credit to owed the money.
Speaker 3 (07:59):
So what I find is sometimes actually sometimes think that
people I don't know, this is getting off topic, but
I sometimes think the headline writer is not necessarily the
person who's write the article, but who knows Ida.
Speaker 4 (08:08):
Maybe in her defense because we get on all right,
But here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
This is all right still as long as she's not listening.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
Yeah, she might be at the sale GP. I hope
she doesn't fall in the water. But I'll tell you
what I would say that the headline on that, to
me is a bit extreme. So if you're thinking of
buying a house. You can fix your interest rate now
and do it for five years, and as long as
you're going to afford it now, I'd suggest you go
for it, because there are great reports coming through by
(08:38):
other economists that are going to see four percent growth
and probably values this year. Yeah, and possibly five percent
through twenty twenty seven, which somewhat compensates for the interest
you're paying.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Okay, so does that mean let's I think we should
just settle in the middle. So I'm going to go So,
given you were mentioning the forecast for the property market, well,
there have been some people saying four maybe five percent,
and then we've got the oc predictions of clients coming
up to four percent by the West Back economists. So
(09:08):
I'm going to go with I think there'll be two
or three rises, and I think there will have a
chilling effect in its own and I think that'll do
the job, and yet it will chill the market to
the extent we'll maybe see just another two or three
percent growth. That's my sitting in the middle thing, and
it's based on absolutely zero experience except doing the show
What do You Reckon?
Speaker 2 (09:28):
Martin?
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Well, I think that is about where it'll fall. There
will be a nudge increase in twenty twenty seven, only
subject to global economies, but quite frankly saying it's going
to go up in a big headline six hikes. I'd
be like Donald Trump, I think that's fake news. I
think you're more on the money, You're more in the mark.
But hey, you know a broken clock is right twice
(09:52):
a day, and so you know it's all speculation.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
Are you okay, Let's put it this way. This is
your business, you know, in the business of buying and
selling houses, and people will want to buy and sell
houses regardless of though. You want to see more activity
in the market. Are you worried about headlines? Do they
irritate you? From the point of view is that you
don't think they're just wrong, but they have a chilling
effect on something that is from every New Zealander buying
(10:17):
in something property. It's one of the biggest decisions you've
ever made. Do you think does it concern you if
you think they're wrong, that this is Look, come on,
this is ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
The mood of the people, the sentiment, the feeling, the vibe.
You know, we'll just vibrations of energy. But if you
have endless amounts of headlines on negativity. You know, the
previous government before this one didn't like property investors. They
started calling property investors rampant speculators, you know, maram Pass.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
That's right, it was speculation was the word. Oh your speculator.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Yeah, now a lot of those. I know one guy,
and Devenport owns a lot of properties. He actually never
puts the rent up. He's a fantastic bloke. He buys them,
he's got a good business, likes to invest in property.
Speaker 3 (11:06):
And he enjoys his tenants when he looks after people.
Speaker 4 (11:09):
He's a fantastic bloke. But he got lumped in, Oh
you're a property owner, you're a rampant speculator. So the
sentiment and mood, we saw a real decline in people
getting into property investment because they were getting beaten up
in the media. They were talking threatened to capital gains,
tax interest rates were going to go up, and all
these sort of things. That tax deductibility came off. So
(11:32):
when you when you headline that sort of thing, it
does deter people's actions. You know, if you're going to
take a holiday and there's there's negative press about violence
and crime and whatever it taints you. You just think,
I won't go there, I'll park it.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
I sort of feel that, you know, because we had
we did have some really heady times in property when
the markets, you know, when the markets, you know, it
was like a no brainer to get into property. It's like, well,
you know, you've just got to get in their leverage
and the capital growth will do it. It feels that
the narrative, regardless of what the Westpac economists say, it
(12:09):
feels that the narrative around that model of property investing
has taken a reasonably hard hit. Is that fair?
Speaker 4 (12:16):
It's fair. I like where we're at now.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
You know, it feels more in balance, much.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
More in balance. You know, if you can afford to
buy home with the interest rates the way they are now,
if you're a young couple and you've got a key
we saver account and you've saved up a bit of
money and you can afford a deposit, if you've had
a bit of money put away, and you are now
in a position the balance in Auckland, this is I'm
not speaking for the rest of New Zealand, but the
Auckland market you can actually now go and buy something
(12:44):
and for what you're paying in rent, you can match
it for what you pay in principle and interest on
a loan, so you get on the property ladder. And
it's good with interest rates at the level they are
now because it gives people a start and they're not.
And also, if everyone's burning all their money paying it
to the banks for intro, people have got a lot
(13:06):
of money, unfortunately, not us in this room here. I
always think I'd love for you one of those people
that's lending money out instead of borrowing money.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
I'd like to get your wealth and MIC wealth will
combine and split it into and I think I'll be
the winner.
Speaker 4 (13:23):
I got a couple of years on you, though.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Okay, hey listen, we want to know what you think
about this. So Westpac they've predicted six ocr heights and
that the official cash rate will hit four percent by
the end of next year. Now it's two point twenty
five percent. Now do you agree with that or and
what was your reaction to that? Because I found that
(13:46):
a startling headline or was it a startling and mildly
mischievous prediction in your boots? But then again, they're economists,
They're not you know, they're not speculators. I mean they're
economists for a bank. That's what they reckon. What do
you think, oh, eight hundred eighty ten to eighty and
what does it mean for the market? Does it have
a further chilling effect? That means so, I don't know what.
How does that affect your plans? Eight hundred eight We
want your reckons. That's what we want your reckons on.
(14:08):
Eight hundred and eighty ten and eighty text nine to
nine two. My guest is Martin Cooper. He's managing director
at Hardwarts, Cooper and Co. And he's with us and
take new calls after this. It's twenty past four. Yes,
News Talk said B welcome back. My guest is Martin
Cooper's managing director of Harwartz, Cooper and Co. Talking about
the cash rate prediction of the Westpac that it's going
(14:28):
to go up. What does it mean?
Speaker 5 (14:30):
Um?
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Okay, get some texts here by the way if you
want to jump the queue and then give us a
call on O. Eight hundred eighty ten and eighty says
Hi Tim Well. I think the lower OCR rate is
great for the new for the new home buyer, the
lower one is great for the new home buyer, and
an increase, as you've mentioned, would not be good for
them as a pensioner. It's great for a lot of
us because it affects what term deposits are going to
(14:54):
be at the moment. So, well, that's the thing. There's
a ying, there's a yin yang, isn't there Martin? I mean,
while there's cheap money, the people who are relying on
investing their money for a bit of worse off. I
don't know what you what are you? What's your response
to that?
Speaker 4 (15:09):
It's definitely the way you see things because imagine when
the official cash rate was so high, if you had
money on deposit, was a good steady You still had
to pay tax on it, but it was still a
really good earner, wasn't it.
Speaker 3 (15:24):
Actually? So where are the interest rates at with borrowing?
So there's this prediction. I mean, here's the thing that
banks are predicting. The o CR rate is going to
go up, even if they don't say it, aren't they
because you can tell from what the borrowing rates are,
how the long is it what goes up? First? I
think it's the long term rate goes up, doesn't It
(15:46):
is a genuine.
Speaker 4 (15:47):
They set the rates out as far as five years
you can get floating rate because it.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
Was a time you get five years for four point
nine to nine. Well that's now five point nine nine?
Is that is my memory? Except for me correctly there,
I think so, yeah.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
You probably can get five point five shop around at
the moment, but for five years. I was a couple
of about about two months ago that all the rates
were under five percent, you know, even the five year
rate was at four point nine nine.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
What do you find most biased?
Speaker 5 (16:21):
You?
Speaker 3 (16:21):
I mean your your businesses and buying and selling property.
But do you how often do you discuss discuss more?
Speaker 4 (16:28):
Yeah, well it's really interesting. I know one guy that
had three different splits on his mortgage. You know, he's
running it like a stock market, some fixed, some floating in,
some over long rates and short rates. And I personally
have always just gone just floating and taken what had come.
(16:51):
But I remember Tony Alexander when he was telling us
when rates were, when the official cash rate was at
two point zero point two five, you could get five
years at two point nine to five per cent. And
he came and talked to our team, and I heard
him three times saying one piece of advice, I can
(17:11):
give you a lock in five years at two point
nine five percent, But I was enjoying low interest rates
and I didn't listen to that part of his presentation.
But then then we're up to seven percent. I thought,
you know, why, why didn't I listen? And the next
time I saw him, I said, Tony, just don't give
me all the waffle a whole lot of presentation. Just
(17:34):
tell me the one point that I need to act on.
Because he told me a whole lot of other things.
I missed the key point.
Speaker 3 (17:41):
Did you step out of the room for a moment
or something?
Speaker 4 (17:44):
Well, I just remember thinking why didn't I listen? Because
imagine if you'd locked in a chunky mortgage at two
point and then it cranks up and well, I had
one loan.
Speaker 3 (17:55):
That that's for say the average. So if you've got
a loan of let's just go four hundred, three hundred undred.
Speaker 4 (18:01):
Thousands, very uncommon, just to have a mortgage at four
hundred and four first time buy in Auckland.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
First time by you'd be five six seven plus, So okay,
six hundred thousand. That's a difference of well, the difference
in what you could have got it for that's three
or four percent, that's you know, sixteen thousand. No, no,
there's about twenty odd grand a year. That's the difference.
I do think maybe some of those people on big
mortgages got the right advice.
Speaker 4 (18:27):
Not everybody, and that's partly why we had the slow
down in the economy. There was no money slashing around.
People had had to put their money into their mortgage.
Speaker 3 (18:38):
Somebody's having a crack at the new Reserve Bank governor.
As if this is part of the conversation the new
Reserve Bank governor, we wouldn't hear and we won't hear
anything from her about this about this because they make
the announcement. When they make the announcement, this is bank economists.
I'm just making the point. Somebody's having a crack at
(18:59):
it's Anna Bremen. I think that's right. Yeah, yeah, whereas
the Reserve Bank themselves wouldn't say a thing about it,
would they.
Speaker 4 (19:08):
They'll comment on what their actions are when they make
their statement. There's an official cash rate announcement I think
on the eighteenth of February, so there'll be commentary around that.
And I certainly know that our Minister of Finance, Nikola
willis she's just instigrat an inquiry on the actions of
the Reserve.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Bank panel and the question around whether that was cynical
timing or not, which is it's all academic. It was
an inquiry had to happen, and.
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Yeah, but if you think about it, there's supposed to
be impartiality between the Finance Minister and the Reserve Bank.
But you've also got to think about what is better
for the greater economy of our country, employment, for well being,
mental health, all these things. There should be some i
(19:56):
think collaboration to balance out interest rates at a reasonable
level for the country and the economy.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
By the way, somebody texted us to saying, can you
explain the OCR rate?
Speaker 5 (20:08):
What is that?
Speaker 3 (20:10):
Well, it's probably worth mentioning actually, because sometimes these jargons
and abbreviations get mentioned as if we all know what
they are. Okay, So the OCR is the interest rate
that's set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and
it's basically the wholesale cost of money for commercial banks.
I think they've got that right, and so the OC
you know, there's always a markup because of the bank's lending.
(20:30):
But that's the right description isn't It's basically the wholesale
rate at which banks can cost get their money for,
isn't it.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Yeah, that temperature, it's the affordability of finance that everyone
has the same playing field.
Speaker 3 (20:43):
What do you what do you think a hike on
the OCR regardless of how many and how far, because okay,
we're at two point two five percent, if there was
a bit of a hike and let's say it just
went up to three percent, does that make any any
material difference to your business what you do as a
(21:04):
buyer and seller, as an agent for bars and for sellers.
Speaker 4 (21:07):
It just it does make a material difference on the affordability.
So if you have a classics, so you've got two
a couple, ones a teacher and one's a cop. You
know they've got their fixed income and they're both saving money.
They won't both want to go and buy a home.
So if the official cash rate it was if they're
(21:29):
borrowing money at four percent, if they can get some
money at four percent, they can afford for their income
to pay the interest up to a certain level. If
the if the interest cost goes up to six percent
or seven percent, it means they just can't. They can't
afford it, so they can borrow less, so their reach,
their ability to pay more is diminished. The higher the rates,
(21:51):
the less they can pay, so that does affect the price.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
It's funny because some people think, off the rates go up,
it'll make properties, you know, it'll keep the pressure down,
the pressure on property. But in terms of if you're
a buyer who has to borrow, you're having to might
it not have to borrow as much as you would
have cash remained if the cost of borrowing was lower.
(22:16):
How do I put this on? I've got myself tied
and knots here. But some people think, oh, well, an
interest rate hike will keep prices down, and that's good
news for buyers. But then again, the buyers are having
to pay more for the money they borrow. That's what
I was trying to say.
Speaker 4 (22:28):
Does that make sense now that you put it that way,
I think this makes complete sense and exactly that's exactly
what it is.
Speaker 3 (22:36):
So how are things? How would you describe where the
market's at right now and what it was doing.
Speaker 4 (22:43):
I've been in real estate for so many decades, and
I've always been I've preferred to be optimistic in the
outlook positive and put a spin on things. So we
did have a great increase in volume, energy, and mood.
It started to flow through September, October, sorry, October, November
(23:05):
and December of last year. And December was brilliant. We sold,
We did more business than we'd done any month for
the past four years proceeding so, and it had been
a little bit lean but a bit patchy, you know
before that. So I thought, helllujah, this is excellent. We're
heading in. You know, the drought's broken. We're off again.
(23:28):
So we slightly ahead for January and now slightly ahead
this time for slightly but not like the taps on
and the flows going. I just wanted the taps to
go full on. I suppose what's the tap full on?
Meaning the flow, the flow of transactions, because that's.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
That's that's where you guys make money as agents. You
just want an up market that's active. Yeah, I mean
you're you're your vested interest and prices going gang busters.
I mean that's not really what you want. You just
want to market where sellers and buyers have confidence. And
now it's the time to sell a buy, isn't it confidence.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
To make a decision. I've got a good friend who's
got a car dealership, a whole lot of them, seven
hundred cars on the lots, and I had breakfast with
him on Friday, and he was just saying, I just
I just wish people would come in with confidence and
make a buy, you know, make a buying decision. Everything's
a haggle, everything's a concern about and some of the
(24:32):
things still concerns about employment. You know, will I have
a job this time next year? Should I borrow money?
There's still a conservatism about general holding back. It's not
they're just we need to all get down to at
square and say we're all going to be all right,
have a big hug, and get people to make decisions
and get on with it.
Speaker 3 (24:53):
Which is actually why I would say that I would
hope that the Westpac economists are wrong, because there are
so I don't if if something needs to have a
handbrake on it. In terms of inflation, I don't think
it's going to take six ocr rises for that to happen.
You just need a couple of rises in the whole market.
Everyone is going to.
Speaker 4 (25:10):
Go, oh, look, here's the thing. If you average out
what all the other economists is saying it's going to
be a stable ride through twenty twenty six with our
interest rates and a possible nudge higher in twenty twenty seven.
It's not going to be as bad as the headline
grabbing Westpac statement is. In my opinion, Hey, time will
(25:31):
tell we can be back here at the end of
twenty twenty seven and see who was right now.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
How often have you predicted the future for the property
market and gone and nailed.
Speaker 4 (25:40):
At that air occasionally I do. I do remember in
the COVID lockdown in terms of predictions, we had a
big hardcourts zoom, you know, all the business owners because
we were locked out of our businesses, and we had
some American futurist or expert telling us that we were doomed.
The market was going to drop back, prices were going
(26:01):
to crash, eighty percent of the transactions would be reduced.
And I thought, if I tell my team that when
they're all locked at home worried about in the future,
So I pushed back and said, no, no, our home
will become our castle. People will find there'll be many
separations and divorces, and people will find their house is
(26:23):
their castle and the or their home is important, they'll
work from home, they'll need to change a lot. I
made that prediction and it turned out we had that
flurry later, so people thought, but it was only a guesstimate.
I didn't know. I don't have a crystal ball, so
I've been right a couple of times.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
Yeah, Hey, I don't actually understand this text. I'm like,
I don't know if my producering shit shed line it.
Somebody says, address the elephant in the room, Judith, and
I'm thinking, what is that all about? Is that just
Judith Colins leaving politics or something? Anyway, text, do you'll
need to actually expand and what your thoughts were? But
this other one says, and I'm not sure if you'd
be so much interested in this Martin. It says, what
(27:01):
ask Martin? What was Adrian or the worst ever government?
It's not it's not really a question. Would bother you
too much? Whether he was good or bad?
Speaker 6 (27:09):
Would it?
Speaker 3 (27:10):
Or?
Speaker 4 (27:12):
Look the commentary I've picked up and I've met him
various functions and a very personable chat. But he just
got too much control, and you know, the bank funding,
the garant just tighten things up far too much, and
(27:33):
the triple CFA. That legislation when that came in, you know,
protect to protect people from loan sharks, all that sort
of thing, far far too oppressive. It tightened up credit,
it tightened up the banks, and we saw a distinct
decline in home ownership and home transactions. So there's not
(27:53):
many people out there in the business community that I
bumped into that. I think that he was good, and
there's more people please that someone else has moved in
the feedback I get.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Okay, let's go to the phones.
Speaker 6 (28:08):
Roger did I Oh, hello there, Hi, I have a
question for you. Okay, why should New Zealanders pay interest
on mortgages?
Speaker 3 (28:21):
Actually, first, before I throw that to Martin, why do
you think that? Why do you think they shouldn't?
Speaker 6 (28:29):
Well, if the economy is run for the benefit of
New Zealanders and we know that money is issued in
a circulation by the banks from nothing, New Zealanders could
pay zero interest rates and benefit, why is the benefit
going to the bank.
Speaker 4 (28:50):
Hey, the banks. I've been very frustrated when I see
the margins that the banks make. But they're not as
I've moaned and groaned about it. They are publicly listed companies.
The banks. You can go and buy sheares and the
bank and benefits.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
Well, I guess you're asking, why do we have inflation then,
isn't it? I mean, nothing, nothing comes for free? Why
would I'm not sure you probably ask I can explain
to an economist to let me explain it to you. Okay,
here we go.
Speaker 6 (29:26):
When you go to a bank and you borrow a mortgage,
the banks issue new money into circulation. They do not
lend you money from deposits. That means that means there's
a zero cost to creating money. Why isn't the benefit
of the zero cost money passed to use zealanders into
(29:50):
that of the banks.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
I'm not sure that that's the right I've looked into
I remember looking into this question as somebody was saying,
you know that when banks lend, do they just lend
on thin air? And and I can't rememb what the
response was, but you can probably you probably google it
and then you get a fairly efficient response.
Speaker 6 (30:09):
But this I can tell you the answer. Now, what
when you go into the bank and you sign the security,
the banks create new money. Yeah, that new money is
created at zero cost to the banks. So why are
the banks getting the benefit of interest when that benefit
(30:30):
could be passed straight to New Zealand people.
Speaker 4 (30:34):
Yeah, but how do you pick which people get an
interest free loan? You know, everyone would want to borrow money,
people have to that have to pay something for having
that money.
Speaker 6 (30:46):
Why.
Speaker 4 (30:48):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
If we had a bank economist here, they could probably
explain it quite well to.
Speaker 6 (30:51):
Tell us you don't need a bank economists. They would
probably tell a lot of rubbish. The bottom line is
that the money fee system has been run for the
benefit of the bankers.
Speaker 3 (31:00):
Well, hang on, but the thing is. The thing is
the bank are responsible for that money that they've lent.
So if you default on the mortgage and somehow it's
the bank that's out of pocket, there is still there's
an asset and there's a liability.
Speaker 6 (31:12):
There's less luck. There's less chance of defaulting on a
mortgage that's issued free of interest. The benefit would pass
to the people.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
Roger. Look, look, I just get people to look that
up on AI. I mean that's you know, I'm not
suddenly going to question the whole nature of the banking system,
because frankly there be other people who get answered the
question much more efficiently than I could. But no one's gonna.
I'm not going to lend you, Roger. If I could summer,
if I could lend Roger half a million dollars and
I could just pull the money out of thin air.
(31:44):
I'm not just going to lend it to you for
nothing because I can do that, because guess what if
you default, then I have to pay that money. There's
a cost to everything in life. It's like, I mean,
why is there. I don't know how to answer that question,
but it is predicated on something I do. Here A
lot of talk back on it gets people sort of triggered.
Speaker 4 (32:00):
But Roger, if you get this off the ground, if
you can get it going, I'd like some of that money.
Speaker 3 (32:06):
Yeah, And they also have to hold sharehold equity against
risky lending. And remember the bank is responsible for the
money that it's that it has lent to you. So
if you default, it doesn't just.
Speaker 4 (32:17):
Believe default that much. If you've got no interest to pay, well,
you've still got one.
Speaker 3 (32:22):
No, you might not be able to meet the obligations
of paying the money back. I guess actually the whole
nature it's a fantastic. Questions like that are always interesting
because you have to stop and go, Yeah, why do
I assume that. So, I mean, I appreciate you calling Roger,
but there be other people who can answer that question
better than me. It's eighteen In fact, I think our
next caller might have a response to it, but who knows.
It's eighteen minutes to five News Talks, he B News
(32:44):
Talks he B with Tim Beveridge, and my guest is
Martin Cooper of Harcourts Cooper and co.
Speaker 6 (32:50):
Tim.
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Hello, Okay, guys, missing the point. The OC goes up
because we borrow the money from overseas. That's why as
all our deficits so high, fifty five million dollars was
borrowed overseas money, yeah, which we have to serve, and
then borrowed to the bank through bonds and so forth
to the margin. That's why Americans in so much trouble
(33:12):
with a trillion dollar debt. It's all overseas money. And
when they talk about printing money, when they create more
money in the economy, it's like dilate it. They dilute
the money in the economy. It's like when they share
gets split. So the reality is the ocr gorried up
as simply a concern about our affliction to borrow and
(33:33):
pay back overseas money. That's why they talk about GDP.
We're around fifty five percent, so we're borrowing money overseas
at the banks and turn get and distributed and make
a margin and positive and so forth. There's no such
thing as free money.
Speaker 3 (33:49):
Yeah, it's always look actually, it's always interesting. People ask
you questions which make you make you go, actually, why
is this the way it is? Because it's always worth,
you know, stopping to actually think how does the banking
system work and why does it work like that? I
don't object to the question, and it's just that I'm
not the best qualified to answer it.
Speaker 5 (34:08):
It's all effectively an international money go around the countries
by China of borrowing money at the bat Sweden and Germany.
I think he's no borrowing of something like multi trillions
of dollars money borrowing up the world in the long
term and someone is at zero interest and that's our
working system is just an almighty creditism around the world,
(34:30):
of which we unfortunately have the New Zealand spit of
borrower rather than they'll end it.
Speaker 3 (34:35):
Yeah, it's a bit. The analogy someone gave me is
it's a bit like anything that you're not paying. You're
not paying for the money. You're paying for getting thirty
years of purchasing power instead of earning it over thirty years.
So banks create the loan, but if you don't repay it,
that's the risk to them. And interest is the price
of taking that risk. That seems like a reasonable analogy
to it.
Speaker 5 (34:56):
And the more the risk for the country, the higher
we have to pay the OCR. And the OCR goes
up the countries bunches that are in financial using way
too much of the three or four.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
I mean, God, you look at the United States and
deadness too by not that it's a property related issue
so much, but everything You know that the United States
sneeze as we all catch a cold. But yeah, hey,
thanks Tim, I appreciate you call go by it. In fact,
the quick summary, bee, interest isn't the price of money.
It's the price of time, risk and early access to
something you couldn't otherwise afford. Yet, so there we go.
(35:34):
Oh we got distracted by banking talk, didn't we, Martin?
Did it make your head spin? A bit made my
hand did for me. I'll tell you what we need
to take quick break. We'll be back in just tickets
twelve minutes to five News Talk said b.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
The one roof property of the week on the Weekend Collective, Yes.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
And the one roof property of the week, Well, it
is an absolute ripper. And the thing is, look, I
do have a suspicion that my producer quite likes it
as well because it is a rather grand looking country
style residents and it is the address is and I
would suggest do go and have a look. It is
(36:10):
sixteen E Davidson Lane, Tommaherty and Waikato. Six bedrooms, four bathrooms,
four car garage. The house is four hundred and thirty
three square meters. The land is seven thousand square meters.
It's a massive it's sort of a chateau. It looks
like it's ivy covered. I actually am going to hand
(36:32):
over to Martin Cooper to give us a bit of
a description on this, because that's the business Martins and
as well. But Martin, what was your first impression of
the property of the week.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
Is the wow type property? The depth of the fabrics,
the colors, the ceiling height and the setting. It's exceptional.
It's sort of almost like a movie.
Speaker 3 (36:58):
It does look like a it's I mean, it's aimed slightly.
It looks like some sort of looks like a sort
of country version of the Northern Club. Doesn't it fun?
Speaker 4 (37:09):
Actually, it does look awesome and it's so worthwhile. The
address can you say the address again? Those people?
Speaker 3 (37:15):
It was for sixteen E Davidson Lane, Tomahery and whitcutto.
Speaker 4 (37:19):
Just for a bit of It's like real estate candy.
You should go on and look at this place and
have a dream or have a thought. Hey, we sold
a property to a guy that won lotto a couple
of weeks back, did you Yeah? Yeah, And my agent said, like,
we're not naming the person, but he spent four minutes
(37:39):
looking at property.
Speaker 3 (37:40):
And snap Board paid cash. He could have bought this.
Speaker 4 (37:43):
I'll tell you what, I guarantee if we took him
to this one, it'll be snap again. It's just such
a cool house. I think it's for tender. So I
looked on one of you know the portals. It's going
to be somewhere over three miles. I still a reasonable investment,
but it looks well. I live in the whitehadow for this,
and I'll tell you what. Have a look at the drive.
(38:05):
It's honestly like you're going it's.
Speaker 3 (38:08):
Way is it's basically the ceiling of beautiful trees and
leaves hanging over it. It's a real I mean, it
is an opulent kitchen. It looks like it's got an
argas stove. For those who know they're stoves, they'll be
not necessarily surprise because it's a bit of a it's
the sort of one of the gold standards in sort
of country style, old fashioned but amazing stoves. And it
(38:29):
is kind of the dining room is a little Harry
Potter for me. It's got that.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
It's got that sort of old fashion elegance to it
doesn't it's not far from Hobbiton. Not the house, but
the you know, so this is where the King of
Hobbiton would live. Like it's it's got the character charm.
It's a real statement.
Speaker 3 (38:49):
Yeah, what's what's the thing that you look at if
you're walking into a house, when you're looking at these photos,
is there a room that is a make or break
for you? Because when I was looking at it, I mean,
it's it's very grand. It's it's not it's not a
sort of as you'll flop down on the couch hang
out sort of house. Is that it's quite grand. It's
(39:11):
absolutely beautiful, the furnishings and everything. But the thing that
I always go for is I thought, well, let's see
what the kitchen's like. And the kitchen is quite gorgeous.
So I like the kitchen and the outdoor living side.
That's the first thing I go for.
Speaker 5 (39:26):
What do you go for?
Speaker 4 (39:29):
I actually, well, I find that I'll ring people and
say thanks for buying a home office doing a survey,
and you just say, well, why did you choose that one?
And the weird thing is nine times out of ten
it felt right.
Speaker 3 (39:43):
It just felt right.
Speaker 4 (39:44):
So there's different strokes for different folks. Some people like
the outdoor setting, the aspect of the sun, the neighborhood.
And that's why I don't think we're going to be
replaced by AI or computers as real estate people, because
every home is unique and every person's taste is unique.
So the main thing is you just got to get
(40:04):
out and look at it. I don't even like buying
properties or things. I don't like buying clothes anything offline.
I want to see it, smell it, feel it, touch it,
and you should get down and have a look at this.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
If I won lotto, and I bought the reason. I'd
love to buy a house like that and just invite
people to my place for a barbecue without telling them anything,
and they'd all be turning up and they going. They'd
be going, I don't know this is the addressy gabbus,
But I don't think that's good yet.
Speaker 4 (40:28):
It'd be a self esteem builder.
Speaker 3 (40:30):
In fact, you just address this can't be Tim's place?
Speaker 4 (40:34):
No, should they pay?
Speaker 3 (40:35):
I'm surecasting I'm sure he's mistyped that address in there.
Speaker 6 (40:38):
Well.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
To be honest, if you won lot and wanted to
keep it a secret, you would not buy this house
because they'd be like, Okay, something's happened. He's won the lotter. Hey,
good to see Martin. What's the week looking store for you?
Speaker 4 (40:52):
Well, I'm just I'm off to Melbourne for a one
day conference just tomorrow, back on Monday. And that's uplifting
because I meet with a lot of other business owners
and we share ideas and then sleeves up auction businesses
cranking out some great results. So we're full steam ahead. God,
despite the west back predictions of the hikes and interest rates,
(41:12):
we're going ahead positively excellent.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
Well check out Harcourts, Cooper and co and Hei. Great
to have you in the studio again, mate, good to
see you, Thank you. We'll be back in just tomorrow
with John Cowen for Parenting. We'll be taking your calls
at one hundred and eighty ten to eighty.
Speaker 1 (41:31):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks EDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
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