Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from News Talk, said, be
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Speaker 2 (00:21):
The Rewrap. Okay there, welcome to the Rewrap for Friday.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
All the best, but it's from the Mike Hosking Breakfast
on News Talk said, be in a sillier package. I'm
Glen Hart today. Even though we don't do polls on
this podcast anymore, I can't seem to stop Mike doing
them on the show. So that means they're end up
in the podcast. It's a bit of a bet where
the system falls down.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
Of course, we.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Will mark the week, haven't done that for a while.
We'll see just how rusty we will are at it
and how many people tune in for the all Whites
the other day.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
But before any of that, so.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
The labor keeps putting out policies that looks, how are
they paying for that? They don't like to be asset,
do they How they're going to pay for them? Lots
of policy, not much of backup behind it.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
Question for you, what's the matter with labor? They're giving
me free doctors visits? I don't want them, I don't
need them. Now are they're giving me as of yesterday
free scripts as well. It's tens of millions of dollars
we don't have handed out to people who don't need it.
Some people need it, of course, to give it to them,
you are literally wasting money giving these things to anyone
on a half decent salary, and yet they insist on
doing it.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Now.
Speaker 4 (01:21):
The real problem with the policies as they're paid for,
of course by this capital gains tax. Now, in case
you haven't worked it out, given it's not retrospective, they
have no income from capital gains and won't until lots
of people with investment or secondary homes start selling them
the bill though for the policies they kick in from
day one, so already they're running a credit card on
(01:41):
the promises. But the really major problem with the capital
gains tax is it's predicated on the projections that have
not and indeed are not turning out to be true.
For the last several years, property prices have gone of course,
as you well aware, nowhere the labor forecasts are based
on three percent a year. We have not returned three
percent or anywhere close to it for years now. The
property flat line has been in place since COVID and
(02:04):
it's not growing three percent this year. It might might
start getting close next year, but for every year it doesn't,
you need extra growth to make up for the difference.
All the while, the bills for the free scripts and
the scans and the visits, they're real and they're piling up.
So it's a twofold problem. They hand out money they
don't have to people who don't need it, and they
haven't got the money anyway to hand out, given it
(02:25):
hasn't been generated, and they have no way of knowing
when and if it will be meantime, it's on the
debt pile, which is already forty seven percent of GDP, which,
in case you forgot, was nineteen percent of GDP until
the old labor government arrived in twenty seventeen, so from
nineteen percent to forty seven percent, and now clearly more
where that came from. If voters are interested in detail.
(02:45):
In fact, this sort of cost plus accounting and nonsense
is a recipe for yet another economic disaster. And I
thought in twenty twenty last election, we decided we weren't
making that mistake again.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Yeah, I think it's very easy for people who understand
about budgets and paying for things and you know, knocketting
behind in your bills and.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Stuff like that.
Speaker 3 (03:06):
It's very easy for those people to assume that everybody
thinks the same way and makes the same conclusions.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
But unfortunately, how a lot of people.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Out there as useless with money, and they don't understand
perhaps how useless labor would be with money, and so
might end up going, oh it sounds good and voting
for them.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
The rewrap or will they? What are the latest poles? Say?
And by poles plural, I mean yes, all of them.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
The Herald's Pole of Poles, which if you're going to
double and poles, I try not to because you know
my view that they're so ropey. The response rate these
days is so ropey that Lord knows what you come
up with in any given pole. So the best we
can do, I think, is probably the pole of poles.
So the Herald apparently have put together this this morning
with about a million different charts. Some of it's confusing,
(03:55):
some of it isn't Tilbot Mills, the post Freshwater Strategy, Taxpayers,
Union Career and the Roy Morgan all put together and
they and they've got warnings predictions using poles are imprecise
because the underlying data is not exact. Users Darted run
four thousand election simulations. The model waits polls depending on
their historical performance, all of that sort of stuff. But
(04:16):
in totality, there's couple of interesting things here. One is
the government home free, which is what I've said all year,
there is virtually no point in having an election because
it's over before it started. Coalition currently has a seventy
four point three percent chance of being re elected. That
would be my assessment, and it's been my assessment all year.
They are basically short of usual caveat. Some sort of
(04:36):
unforeseen disaster or calamity or scandal might change the landscape,
but broadly speaking they will be re elected in some way,
shape or form. And the chances of them being re elected,
according to this poll of polls this morning, has gone
up significantly as the year has gone on. And that's
my summation as well. Luckson's got a spring in a step,
(04:58):
there's a mood and there's a confident shift. They were
getting beaten up by the media and to the lesser
extent polls generally earlier on this year and perhaps until
last year. That's now a base, and I think we've
adjusted our attitude and we're sharpening our view of what's
going on. As the election draws closer, more and more
of us getting attuned to the minutii of policy ideas,
(05:20):
the economy debate, et cetera. And with that has come
an increased confidence that this lot are going to get
another crack. So it's gone up from sixty three point
five percent to seventy four point three. Our top are
running on average at three point eight. Now here's the
interesting thing about TOP. First of all, i'll take a
bit with any one. Top will not make parliament. They
will not get to five percent. The Polar Pole suggests
(05:41):
they've got a fourteen point nine percent probability of getting
to five percent. In other words, they're not going to
get there. Now, the interesting thing about that if these
polar polls right at three point eight and they don't
get there, that's three point eight percent boots. So let's
call it four. So you're splitting ninety six. You see,
that's how MMP works. If you don't get to the threshold,
your votes are in the bin, which is why they
(06:02):
won't get three point eight percent. Because by the time
we get to the election enough people who might have
voted for Top will have worked that out and therefore
will no longer because they don't want their vote wasted.
So I think on the night Top will get two ish. Anyway,
that goes in the bin. So you're splitting ninety eight,
So you're splitting somewhere between ninety eight and ninety six.
If you're splitting ninety six year, what do you need
for government? Forty six forty five something like that, which
(06:23):
means that the then the number for the coalition to
get re elected goes up. On average, Labour's averaging about
thirty two, the Greens nine, and to Party Marray two,
which is the other problem with the poll. Of course,
a lot will depend on where the Rawori wins his seat.
My guess I'm not an expert in Murray politics and
(06:43):
the minuti i of it, but my guess is he will,
so the two point two percent in play. If he doesn't,
no one else is going to They're out. That's another
two percent bind. So you're suddenly down to poticialarly ninety
four percent.
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Of the vote. This sounds like a dumb system.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
It sounds like a system that's probably more complicated than
it needs to be, isn't it, Glenn. But then again,
we voted twice on that, but we decided there are
you calling we exapt wew We collectively decided twice that
this is the system we wanted more off please now.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
I proposed this with the local body elections last time
they happened, and I think maybe we can begin to
apply to the general election as well, where no vote
counts and you start taking government away by the proportion
(07:33):
of people who decide not to vote for anything. That's
how it just happened. I've become with how things are
run the RERAP right. It's been a while because I
was away and then Mike was away. So yeah, I
hope I still know how to do math the week.
Let's find out.
Speaker 4 (07:48):
Time now to make a week little piece of news
and current of instance as popular as an offer sweep
steak with the draw for the All Whites' first price
Field Day's eight, massive crowds, good mood, lots of money
changing hands, Rural New Zealand is booming. New Zealand inc.
Generally seven actually a pretty good week economically if you've
been following it. Spending was up, the inflation for food
wasn't even they're not nearly as bad as they thought
(08:10):
it was going to be. GDP show we're actually on
our way our mood though three, I mean the evidence
does not support the misery. We don't have to be
hopped up. I get that. But eighty, which is what
we are in the confidence survey, does not dovetail with
the hard data. Give yourself an uppercut. Exports eight not
an untold story, but it doesn't get anywhere near the
(08:32):
noise it deserves. Projections this week of even more growth
heading towards twenty thirty, and we're already booming space X
seven because really it's an amazing story to think about it.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
But three.
Speaker 4 (08:44):
Because it represents the shallowness of the modern age of
hypover detail. What exactly did you buy into? And if
it's Mars and beyond, it's not real immigration And NB
one as bad as it gets, a shocking betrayal, horrific
damage to the public service reputation. And even if jail
time isn't required, you can't run a country if you're
being deceived by crocs the MoU Three we did.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
A trillion and a half, maybe two trillion dollars worth
of Trump, so somebody's going to have to help him out.
Speaker 4 (09:11):
Has achieved nothing. We're all glad it's over, yes, and
it feels good paying two dollars something for petrol eventually,
but we were doing that before Trump thought of right
was easy or a run was easy. Acc Four we
need every New Zealand are playing their role having a hymn.
Tracking the impact of having hum for about five years.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
I wish I'd had a hum if we want people
to have that hum beforehand.
Speaker 4 (09:35):
There are too many injuries for a nation of five
million people. We're too one co So when you give
yourself an uppercut, don't fall over. Travel seven. Seven the
New New Zealand it was late to take off. I've
been around the world in the past fortnight. It's an
amazing place. Will the bits I saw are anyway, but
it's also troubled, over, crowd and very expensive. In New
(09:55):
Zealand looks pretty damn good to me. Matthew Houghton eight.
Not actually him, because I wouldn't have a clue of
he's good or disastrous. But the thinking that went into
the call is brave and adventurous and we need more
of that. Lewis Hamilton eight, driver of his generation and
a thrill to watch. He lived his dream this week
of victory in a Ferrari. We should all be lucky
enough to live our dreams. David Hockney hate not just
(10:18):
the paint, because that was amazing, but the attitude to life.
Uarda viv will keep you alive, and lack of Jouard
de viv will kill you. And they should put that
on signs everywhere to remind us of it. Brilliant never
a true word spoken, copies on the website. That's the
week copies on the website. And if you take forty
six of these and screw them into a sphere and
color them black and white, you get a ball you
can bend it like Beckham.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Yeah, I sounded about Rassi there, didn't I that's slow
on some of those things, and.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Yeah I had. I've got excuses for all the things
that I got wrong there.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
But they're weak and technical, so I'm not even gonna
say them out loud. Yes, speaking of the FIFA World
Cup there, how did you watch?
Speaker 2 (11:01):
I watched howbout the thing that Mike's interested in is
how you watch.
Speaker 4 (11:08):
Quick word on TV? And z we Finally, got the
numbers on the opening game for the World Cup. So
I was I mean, I said, I reckon about a
million people of watches. It turns out I was right,
not that I know anything about this, but it was,
you know, a million people's a great story. I mean,
you just don't get a million people watching a single
thing anymore. Television is not what it was, sadly what
(11:30):
I was wrong on because I was absolutely convinced that
more people would watch on free to air than watched
on streaming. I got that wrong. TV one four sixty five,
streaming five point fifty five, So about a million. I
do wonder whether they are slightly disappointed in that in
the sense that, yes, a million's a great story. But
given it was free to wear and free to air
allows you access to a group of people who may
(11:53):
or may not be that interested. Andrew Dickens, who knows
more about football than I do, was telling me two
o'clock was a problem or mid day was a problem
with Is that a problem? I didn't think it was. It.
So one a week day, seven o'clock.
Speaker 2 (12:04):
Are we supposed to be nah doing productivity on this country?
Speaker 4 (12:07):
Made no product doing in this country. Not when you
can have a cup of coffee.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
And I mean, I'm usually asleep at that time, and
I was awake watching that game. Yeah, I'm not sure
what that did to my productivity, whether it raised it
or loaded. And also, whenever Mike talks about the stuff,
do you like me, you sort of get the feeling
he's got absolutely no idea what's going on.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
I had got the vibe there with what he was.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Saying there that he thinks that people who watched its streaming,
we're paying with the paying customers, you know, they'd had
the Fever subscription. But I watched it just on the
TV and Z app because that's how I watched TV
and Z. I don't have any way of getting the
terrestrial broadcast of it. And I would say that a
lot of people are like that these days, and that's
(12:56):
why the streaming numbers are up, not up quite as
much as the TV and Z headline from their sort
of news story slash press release made out where they
talked about two point two million streams over the twenty.
Speaker 2 (13:07):
Four hour period.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
It took me a long time to figure out what
the hell they were talking about there, because when they
you know, straight after it, when they talk about the
numbers and the streaming numbers and the live numbers of
the people who watched the game that ended up to,
you know, just over a million.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
And then but so what was.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
The twenty two million streams over the twenty four hours?
Their biggest streaming day ever? And then of course I
realized they were talking about everybody who used the streaming
service in that twenty four hours, and they made they
tried to make it sound like that that was we're
talking about the all whites game, but they failed.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
So just go back and have another look at that.
Speaker 3 (13:45):
If you think that over to I did that nearly
half the population watched that game.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Not true.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
I am a glen Hart. I'm trying to code some
of this tech for people like Mike Costing, and I'll
endeavor to do that again on Monday.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
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