Francesca Rudkin: Should Chris Luxon be worried about his future?

Well, it was an interesting end of the week when it comes to domestic politics.  

With rumours swelling on Friday that the Prime Minister was considering his future over the weekend, he had to act quickly. There was absolutely no way he could go into the weekend with even the hint of speculation he was considering his future.  

When a sitting Prime Minister signals they are “considering their future”, it is almost always politically damaging. In parliamentary systems like ours, leadership authority depends heavily on perceived confidence and control. Once a leader questions themselves publicly it rapidly weakens their position with the party and the electorate.  

Honesty and transparency in this case doesn’t buy sympathy, it is more likely to create a trigger moment that encourages internal challengers. Be anything but unequivocal on Friday and the Prime Minister may as well have poured himself a Coke No Sugar and started planning a nice winter getaway. 

The sudden announcement he would appear on Heather de Plessis-Allan Drive just after 5pm on Friday evening was unusual enough to raise an eyebrow. But he was turning up to do exactly what needed to be done to remain credible - to get ahead of the story. He explained to Heather why he decided to appear - to set the story straight.  

After some easily clipped soundbites from his party deputy Nicola Willis, who told ZB’s Wellington Morning host Nick Willis that it hadn’t been a “great week for the Prime Minister”, Christopher Luxon made it very clear that he has the full support of his team and caucus. Since then, everyone has been very well behaved.  

Over the last few days, I’ve been reflecting on what a tough gig it is. There’s quite a lot of luck and timing involved in being a successful Prime Minister. A successful career in politics isn’t just about talent and ability, or the possession of that rare relatable charisma - it also comes down to what the country and the world throws at you. And - let’s not forget - what the previous Government left you.  

Look around the world and most leaders are dealing with the same issues we have - a slow economic recovery, the high cost of living, housing, a weird international trade environment, and much more.  

We haven’t seen much alternative policy from opposition parties to show us there are other, more likely to be successful, scenarios under alternative leadership that we’re currently missing out on. 

The reality is that the recovery was going to be difficult for whoever was in charge. But it’s especially difficult for a leader who takes on a cheerleading role with the vigour Luxon does. There’s a disconnect between the aspirational words and the reality of a Government that’s cutting rather than growing as much as we’d like, and when signs the economy is finally turning the corner are likely to squashed by conflict in the Middle East.  

The only thing keeping Luxon in play is his ability to control his troops, the party’s desire to avoid the instability that comes with changing leadership, and the lack of an obvious replacement who could win an election.  

But history tells us that if the polls continue to trend downwards for the Nats, the Prime Minister may be organising that mid-winter break before you know it.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudkin
from News talks'b While.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
It was an interesting end of the week when it
comes to domestic politics, with rumors swelling on Friday that
the Prime Minister was considering his future over the weekend,
he had to act quickly. There was absolutely no way
he could go into the weekend with even the hint
of speculation he was considering his future. When it's sitting
prime minister signals they are considering their future, it's almost

(00:35):
always politically damaging. In parliamentary systems like ours, leadership authority
depends heavily on perceived confidence and control. Once a leader
questions themselves publicly, it rapidly weekends their position with the
party and the electorate. Honesty and transparency in this case
doesn't buy sympathy. It's more likely to create a trigger

(00:56):
moment that encourages internal challenges. So be anything but unequivocal
on Friday, and the Prime Minister may as well have
pulled himself a coconut zero and planning a nice winter getaway.
The sudden announcement that he would appear on Heather to
plic Allen's Drive just after five pm on Friday evening
was unusual enough to raise an eyebrow, but he was

(01:17):
turning up to do exactly what needed to be done
to remain credible, to get ahead of the story. He
explained to her that why he decided to appear and
to set the story straight.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
I've picked up as I've come back into finishing my
events in Botany. The whole world seems to have got very
exercised about I'm considering my future. Reason coming on your
show as to clarify to people, No, I'm not doing that.
I'm considering very deeply the future for New Zealand and
nothing's changed for me. So I appreciate the media may
have got carried away through the course of the day
in reacting to another public poll of which there are many,

(01:49):
and I'm just trying to give some perspective to it
and some balance to it.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
After some easily clipped soundbites from his party deputy Niicolibilis,
who told z b's Wellington Warning host Nick wills Willis
that it hadn't been a great week for the Prime Minister,
Christopher Luxen made it very clear that he has the
full support of his time and caucus and since then
everyone has been very well behaved. Over the last few days,
I've been reflecting on what a tough gig it is.

(02:13):
There's quite a lot of luck and timing involved in
being a successful prime minister. A successful career in politics
isn't just about talent and ability, or the possession of
that rare, relatable charisma. It also comes down to what
the country and the world throws at you. And let's
not forget what the previous government left you. Look around
the world and most leaders are dealing with the same issues.

(02:34):
We have a slow economic recovery, the high cost of living,
housing issues, a weird international trade environment, and much more.
We haven't seen much alternative policy from opposition parties to
show us there are other, more likely to be successful
scenarios under alternative leadership that we're currently missing out on.
The reality is that recovery was going to be difficult

(02:56):
for whoever was in charge, but it is especially difficult
for a leader who takes on a cheerleading role with
the vigor lux and does There's a disconnect between the
aspirational words and the reality of a government that's cutting
rather than growing as much as we'd like and when
signs the economy is finally turning the corner unlikely to
be squashed by conflict in the Middle East. The only

(03:17):
thing keeping luxon and plays his ability to control his troops,
the party's desire to avoid instability that comes with changing leadership,
and the lack of an obvious replacement who could win
an election when history tells me that if the polls
continue to trend downwards for the Nats, the Prime Minister
may be organizing that midwinter break before you know it.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
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