There's suspicions speculation around Chris Luxon's future won't be subsiding, even after he firmly ruled out stepping aside.
This week's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll has National down to 28.4 percent, with Labour able to govern alongside the Greens and Te Pati Maori.
The Prime Minister's assured the public he had his MP's backing and won't be going anywhere.
Taxpayers' Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says this week's been a challenging one from Chris Luxon.
"The real significant event this week in terms of the election is the unexpected economic headwinds we now appear to be in - the events in the Middle East are not going to be over in a week or even a month now, it's looking to be quite a lot longer, and the implications on the New Zealand economy is certainly a challenge."
Former Labour Chief of Staff Neale Jones says the speculation over Chris Luxon's political future is 'fatal' - regardless of whether or not it's true.
"The problem he's got is that it's never a good thing when you have to ring up and say - I'm not resigning. I think that spoke to the crisis he was in this week."
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudkin
from News talks'b SO.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
As I mentioned before, it's not been the best of
weeks for Prime Minister for Christopher Luxin and the National Party.
As highlighted by New Zealand Herald political editor Thomas Coglan,
it might be about to get a whole lot worse,
with the war in the Middle East threatening our much
hope for you know, economic recovery. So with questions already swirling,
how does the Prime Minister navigate this heading into an
(00:35):
election To discuss I'm joined by the former Labor Chief
of Staff Neil Jones. Good morning, Neil, and also executive
director of the Taxpayers Union, Jordan Williams. High Jordan, Hello,
good to have you both with us, Sir Jordan. Your
poll course a little bit of a stir. It's sort
of topped off a bit of an average week for
the Prime minister, didn't it.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Yeah, it wasn't the best weeks for the government. What
was unusual about this poll is it sort of got
a head of steam before we'd actually released it. What
we do is we give the as a courtacy, give
the parties a heads up that it is coming and
what it is. And I call that particularly if we're
doing sort of favorable unfavorable on any specific politician other
(01:15):
than the leaders, I as a courtesy call them and
let them know. But by about eight o'clock nine o'clock
Thursday night became clear that half the press gallery knew
the National Party's number. We have never had that before,
and I think that if I was in the government,
I'd be very concerned as to why a little bit
(01:36):
like other stories that if you try to get out
ahead of it, actually built up the expectation of the
poll for what was frankly just one poll, but it
turned into bigiven Ben hur.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
So obviously wasn't leaked from your end, is what you're saying, Jordan.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
No, as my costking suggested something different on Friday morning
and corrected it. In fact, it was numerous journalists, including
from said B and the Herald, calling and asking me
is it percent? Is it twenty eight percent? Look, we
don't play favorites with the pole, you know, with the
issue poles, yep, we'll give it to media for exclusive,
(02:10):
but that monthly tracking pole, we just do not play
favorites with it. And because to be frank A polls
a poll, it is what it is. We get the data,
it takes us forty eight hours to design up the
report and all that sort of thing, and then we
just get it out.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
So Jordan, has this week been damaging to Luxeon? Maybe
I should say how damaging?
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Well, without a doubt. I mean, it's it's pretty difficult
to grab and this is going to be the challenge
now for chrisph Luxe and to grab that narrative back.
But I think that you hit the nail on the
head in your introduction, where the real significant event this
week in terms of the election is the unexpected economic
(02:57):
headwinds we appear to LVN and that the events in
the Middle East are not going to be over in
a week or even a month now. It's looking to
be quite a lot longer. And the implications of the
New Zealand economy certainly is a challenge for a government
that wants to wait as long as possible for the
economic recovery to eventually arrive.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
So Jordan, do you think that Luxin has what it
takes to convincingly explain his way out of it?
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Look reason why it's different that I'm being very careful.
I mean, my my business. My co founder at the
Taxpayers Union, David Farrer, who is the polster for the
National Party, he blogged that the surest way to ensure
a change of government would be to change the leader.
David is far more experienced than I am on these
matters and I'll just I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Hmm, okay, good. I thought it was a really good
move for him to front with Heather on Friday. You
cannot go into a weekend with people thinking that the
prime minister is considering his options, can you. I'd love
to hear from both of you on that.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Yeah. I think the Prime minister sure. I think the
Prime Minister could see his leadership circling drain. By late
last week, the press gallery had really picked the story up.
They had, I think, started to write its political obituary.
The word had got out that Luxen was considering his
future over the weekend, and whether that was true or not,
(04:22):
that kind of speculation is fatal because if people think
that your prime minister or your party leader doesn't have
the confidence to continue, that's the end. And so I
think he had to put a plug in it, and
I think calling Heather and just saying, look, I'm not
considering going anywhere. I'm here to stay. I think that
was the right call. The problem he's got is that,
(04:42):
you know, it's never a good thing when you have
to ring up and say I'm not resigning, and that
spoke to the crisis he was in this week.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
No, you're right, Jordan, Yeah, Friday was one of the
more bizarre days I think in New Zealand politics for
some time. What was odd was the radio silence from
Christopher Luxon from all through the afternoon that despite being
in the electorate, there was no note given to media
(05:10):
about where he was or a sort of stand up
or a camera. So by the time it got to
sort of four four thirty and there was a void
both in ministers. Prior to midday, we're coming out saying
full you know, the Prime Minister has my full support.
That had stopped and we hadn't heard from Chris Luxon.
So when you got to that at ten to five,
when Heather said, you know, the Prime Minister is coming
(05:33):
on the show after the five o'clock news, the eyebrows.
There was genuine uncertainty as to what he was going
to say now that I would argue was a failure
of political management prior to them, especially given that they
knew the poll was coming. Yeah, it was quite a
very strange Indeed.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Neil Jordan alluded took before we were just talking about,
you know, the economic recovery that National was really sort
of putting its hopes on being able to win this
election on you know, looking ahead down on the we've
got the war in the Middle East. It is looking
more unlikely. That is not a great position to be.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
In, is it. No. I mean, the economy is everything
for National this election. If you think back the last election,
it was Luxeon's entire pitch when he ran for the
job that he would use his business experience and he'd
get the economy back on track. And I think, you know,
every letter in the world faces the same problem. So
it's not necessarily his fault. But if you ask the
average person, has your life got harder, not harder or easier,
(06:34):
they'll say it's got harder. And I think the you know,
the plan National had this election was to be able
to have the recovery underway by the election say look,
we've made some hard decisions, We've fixed up the previous
government's mistakes. You know, vote for us, We'll keep on
track and don't put all at risk with that other side.
That's a classic re election campaign. What these global headwinds
(06:55):
coming with Iran, The risk he faces is that actually
there's no story to tell. And whereas someone like John Key,
who was a very talented politician with a deep well
of public trust, could talk his way through that and
guide the public through economic hard times. I'm just not
convinced Luxelon has that.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Does it come down to the communication. I mean, this
is an issue that's been highlighted for a long time. Now,
does he have at what takes to reassure the listeners?
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Neil saying, I don't think so, and it's a hard
thing politics. Luxeon's never been particularly personally popular, and there's
a range of things. I mean, he's a perfectly nice
guy in person. He's are very personable, but he's just
never jelled with the public. He just for some reason
he hasn't jelled and that's not his fault, it's his politics.
(07:39):
I think sometimes he's come across as a bit corporate
and authentic just the way he speaks, and I think,
you know, he's made a few missteps that have sort
of made him look about it at a touch at times,
and he just for some reason he hasn't managed to
capture the public mood the way Key has and so
you know, you look at his favorability ratings. The Freshwater
Pole recently had him at minus twenty five, with more
(07:59):
than half of the public having an unfavorable view. That's
a really hard thing to really hard position to be
trying to con the public on when you're an economic crisis.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Jordan I called it before sort of a rare, relatable
charisma that a leader has to have as a prime minister,
and it is such a unique job that so few
can really do.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
It.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Isn't just the wrong person at the wrong time.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
I'm going to push back on that, actually, okay that
I mean Bulger was never well liked, Clark was never
particularly well liked, but they were clearly successful prime ministers.
The problem for the National Party and the Taxpayers Union
has been saying this really since before Christmas with that
Fudge campaign, is that the National Party haven't actually delivered
(08:45):
what was on the tin that they asked the public
to back prior to the last election. They said, you know,
there's lots of rhetoric around cutting spending. Actually spending has increased,
both adjustice for inflation and population. They haven't pulled back
on the on the spending acceleration. The structural deficit is
(09:07):
worse now than it was when Labor left office. The
surplus is now further away than it was when they
were elected, and it's not even a real surplus because
Nicola Willis has invented ober garle X, a new measure
to exclude acc liabilities. I agree with Neil that the
(09:28):
real risk for the National parties they go into the
election saying, look, we're better economic managers, a little bit
like the Tories in Britain. Did the public go no,
you're not what you said you do, you wouldn't do.
But I don't think that's a communication problem. I think
fundamentally that is a failure of the government to follow
through on what it promised prior to the last election.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
It's an issue for the whole team, not just the leader.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Well, I mean, what is one thing that is a
bit strange in modern National party campaigning has been very
focused around the leader. One of the things that I
think a risk for the national incident in nails on
the scene. The is that they run a sort of
John Key esque style campaign around the leader and try
(10:14):
to make him likable rather than actually bring up the
sort of their second bench. They're sort of Erica Stanford's
of the world that are clearly succeeding in their individual portfolios,
the Mark Mitchell's of the World and Law and Order
for It, for example. But that is that is a
different style of campaign than what the National Party has
(10:36):
delivered in the past. I mean again, I don't necessarily
think it's just a communication thing. I think, particularly on
the economy, as Neil correctly identifies, you know that that yep,
some tough medicine probably needed to be taken at the
be taken at the beginning, but they simply refused to
take it and now as a result it's probably too late.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Neil.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Yeah, look, I hear this a lot, and I argue
with jud Jordan's coming from when he says highlight the team.
And I used to hear this a lot when I
was working for Labor and we had a failing leader.
And I think the problem you've got is, while that
sounds like a good idea, the public have very little
attention for politics. You know, it's really quite impressionistic to
most people. And I think the way that the party's
(11:23):
message and recorders delivered is through the leader is the
key spokesperson. I think, you know, my experience working for
Andrew Little and then for Jisinda Ardun shortly after and
seeing how the polls changed, was that most people were
paying very little attention to our policies, to our spokespeople.
They really wanted to believe they could trust the leader.
And I think that's fundamental for National it's lux and
(11:45):
or it's not, but that's kind of their choice.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Near unless it's not Lucks and who is it?
Speaker 4 (11:50):
Well this is I think what's holding him in the
job right now is there's no obvious alternative. There's been
talk about Erica Stanford, who's you know, she's had very
good press in education. I think Mark Mitchell, who's you know,
been doing a lot of good work in police. You know,
Nikola Willis probably would have been, but she's too tired
(12:11):
to Luxeon on the economy. And Chris Bishop has been considered,
but he's blottless copy book a few times lately, So
there's no obvious person stands that is sort of scene
as potentially not quite being ready for the job. I'd
probably take a punt on her if I was national.
She's you know, she's she's doumb edged in education and
(12:31):
she's articulate and she provides a real different face for them.
But unless they can find someone to get behind, I
think Luckxelan's probably safe in the job.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
The same names that everyone's throwing out, that everybody's thinking about,
but actually, d I kind of I don't get the
impression that they're all they're raring to take on the role.
They're all sort of just sitting quite happily doing the
jobs in their lanes, doing the jobs they're doing. Well,
it's just pure you know, yeah, regulation on my part.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Yeah, but that's what this all is about. When I
was a lawyer, I acted for a political party leader
and during a coup, and it was it was astounding.
The degree of naivety from the talking from the chattering heads,
of which I'd put us in that category right now,
is that unless you less they are your colleagues, you
(13:23):
don't necessarily know them. This was Labour's problem, and having
David Cherer sort of not David Shearer, David, you went
through the Davids which one particularly unpopular. When you've got
the membership voting who should be your leader? Is you
actually just you don't know them well enough? The in turn,
I remember in an Act there was always a theory
(13:43):
that that Rodney Hyde and Heather Roy was some sort
of ideological opponents. That wasn't true. On policy, they were
as close as it could be. It was just that
they didn't get along unless you are in that caucus
and understand the personal dynamics. I think it's it's it's
almost pointless to sit a pontificate what's going to who's
(14:04):
going to have the more effective management style? For example?
Certainly we can look at and the data is there
around the favorability unfavorability of the various names that are
being floated about, But then you only need to look
at Luxon himself. It wasn't until he became leader that
his favorabilities absolutely shot up, because people sort of sit
(14:25):
up and take a bit of notice, and you know,
who was this person that has been put in front
of me. Unlike the Judith Collins leadership though, is that
leadership means you become prime minister and there is very
few politicians that would turn that up However, if they
see this as just a hospital pass, that the election
(14:46):
is now unwinnable, I don't think that's the case, because
that's the other message that was missed in this poll. Yes,
the government was behind, but it was sixty one to
fifty nine. It's not contestrip you know. I mean that
is still margin of verra of stuff. And you look
at all the poles the last six months, at least,
David's poles tend to be pretty good, and Labour's internal polls,
(15:07):
the one they choose, the ones they choose the leak,
it is very close.
Speaker 4 (15:11):
I think.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
The other thing that was strange on Friday is that
it appeared Labor leaked their internal polling, which suggested that
it wasn't quite as bad for Christopher Luxan. That is
interesting where you have the opposition party perhaps wanting the
wanting the government to keep the guy they've got. Whether
(15:34):
that's some sort of three D chests going on, Weller,
Actually it is some sort of three D chests going on.
You can interpret it for yourself.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
Neil Jones, Jordan Williams. Lovely to talk to you both
this morning. Thank you very much, gentlemen. And actually you
raise a very good point there. Let's not all forget here.
The pole is still very very close, So there we go.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
live to News Talks they'd be from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudkin
from News talks'b SO.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
As I mentioned before, it's not been the best of
weeks for Prime Minister for Christopher Luxin and the National Party.
As highlighted by New Zealand Herald political editor Thomas Coglan,
it might be about to get a whole lot worse,
with the war in the Middle East threatening our much
hope for you know, economic recovery. So with questions already swirling,
how does the Prime Minister navigate this heading into an
(00:35):
election To discuss I'm joined by the former Labor Chief
of Staff Neil Jones. Good morning, Neil, and also executive
director of the Taxpayers Union, Jordan Williams. High Jordan, Hello,
good to have you both with us, Sir Jordan. Your
poll course a little bit of a stir. It's sort
of topped off a bit of an average week for
the Prime minister, didn't it.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Yeah, it wasn't the best weeks for the government. What
was unusual about this poll is it sort of got
a head of steam before we'd actually released it. What
we do is we give the as a courtacy, give
the parties a heads up that it is coming and
what it is. And I call that particularly if we're
doing sort of favorable unfavorable on any specific politician other
(01:15):
than the leaders, I as a courtesy call them and
let them know. But by about eight o'clock nine o'clock
Thursday night became clear that half the press gallery knew
the National Party's number. We have never had that before,
and I think that if I was in the government,
I'd be very concerned as to why a little bit
(01:36):
like other stories that if you try to get out
ahead of it, actually built up the expectation of the
poll for what was frankly just one poll, but it
turned into bigiven Ben hur.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
So obviously wasn't leaked from your end, is what you're saying, Jordan.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
No, as my costking suggested something different on Friday morning
and corrected it. In fact, it was numerous journalists, including
from said B and the Herald, calling and asking me
is it percent? Is it twenty eight percent? Look, we
don't play favorites with the pole, you know, with the
issue poles, yep, we'll give it to media for exclusive,
(02:10):
but that monthly tracking pole, we just do not play
favorites with it. And because to be frank A polls
a poll, it is what it is. We get the data,
it takes us forty eight hours to design up the
report and all that sort of thing, and then we
just get it out.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
So Jordan, has this week been damaging to Luxeon? Maybe
I should say how damaging?
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Well, without a doubt. I mean, it's it's pretty difficult
to grab and this is going to be the challenge
now for chrisph Luxe and to grab that narrative back.
But I think that you hit the nail on the
head in your introduction, where the real significant event this
week in terms of the election is the unexpected economic
(02:57):
headwinds we appear to LVN and that the events in
the Middle East are not going to be over in
a week or even a month now. It's looking to
be quite a lot longer. And the implications of the
New Zealand economy certainly is a challenge for a government
that wants to wait as long as possible for the
economic recovery to eventually arrive.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
So Jordan, do you think that Luxin has what it
takes to convincingly explain his way out of it?
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Look reason why it's different that I'm being very careful.
I mean, my my business. My co founder at the
Taxpayers Union, David Farrer, who is the polster for the
National Party, he blogged that the surest way to ensure
a change of government would be to change the leader.
David is far more experienced than I am on these
matters and I'll just I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Hmm, okay, good. I thought it was a really good
move for him to front with Heather on Friday. You
cannot go into a weekend with people thinking that the
prime minister is considering his options, can you. I'd love
to hear from both of you on that.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Yeah. I think the Prime minister sure. I think the
Prime Minister could see his leadership circling drain. By late
last week, the press gallery had really picked the story up.
They had, I think, started to write its political obituary.
The word had got out that Luxen was considering his
future over the weekend, and whether that was true or not,
(04:22):
that kind of speculation is fatal because if people think
that your prime minister or your party leader doesn't have
the confidence to continue, that's the end. And so I
think he had to put a plug in it, and
I think calling Heather and just saying, look, I'm not
considering going anywhere. I'm here to stay. I think that
was the right call. The problem he's got is that,
(04:42):
you know, it's never a good thing when you have
to ring up and say I'm not resigning, and that
spoke to the crisis he was in this week.
Speaker 3 (04:49):
No, you're right, Jordan, Yeah, Friday was one of the
more bizarre days I think in New Zealand politics for
some time. What was odd was the radio silence from
Christopher Luxon from all through the afternoon that despite being
in the electorate, there was no note given to media
(05:10):
about where he was or a sort of stand up
or a camera. So by the time it got to
sort of four four thirty and there was a void
both in ministers. Prior to midday, we're coming out saying
full you know, the Prime Minister has my full support.
That had stopped and we hadn't heard from Chris Luxon.
So when you got to that at ten to five,
when Heather said, you know, the Prime Minister is coming
(05:33):
on the show after the five o'clock news, the eyebrows.
There was genuine uncertainty as to what he was going
to say now that I would argue was a failure
of political management prior to them, especially given that they
knew the poll was coming. Yeah, it was quite a
very strange Indeed.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Neil Jordan alluded took before we were just talking about,
you know, the economic recovery that National was really sort
of putting its hopes on being able to win this
election on you know, looking ahead down on the we've
got the war in the Middle East. It is looking
more unlikely. That is not a great position to be.
Speaker 4 (06:12):
In, is it. No. I mean, the economy is everything
for National this election. If you think back the last election,
it was Luxeon's entire pitch when he ran for the
job that he would use his business experience and he'd
get the economy back on track. And I think, you know,
every letter in the world faces the same problem. So
it's not necessarily his fault. But if you ask the
average person, has your life got harder, not harder or easier,
(06:34):
they'll say it's got harder. And I think the you know,
the plan National had this election was to be able
to have the recovery underway by the election say look,
we've made some hard decisions, We've fixed up the previous
government's mistakes. You know, vote for us, We'll keep on
track and don't put all at risk with that other side.
That's a classic re election campaign. What these global headwinds
(06:55):
coming with Iran, The risk he faces is that actually
there's no story to tell. And whereas someone like John Key,
who was a very talented politician with a deep well
of public trust, could talk his way through that and
guide the public through economic hard times. I'm just not
convinced Luxelon has that.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Does it come down to the communication. I mean, this
is an issue that's been highlighted for a long time. Now,
does he have at what takes to reassure the listeners?
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Neil saying, I don't think so, and it's a hard
thing politics. Luxeon's never been particularly personally popular, and there's
a range of things. I mean, he's a perfectly nice
guy in person. He's are very personable, but he's just
never jelled with the public. He just for some reason
he hasn't jelled and that's not his fault, it's his politics.
(07:39):
I think sometimes he's come across as a bit corporate
and authentic just the way he speaks, and I think,
you know, he's made a few missteps that have sort
of made him look about it at a touch at times,
and he just for some reason he hasn't managed to
capture the public mood the way Key has and so
you know, you look at his favorability ratings. The Freshwater
Pole recently had him at minus twenty five, with more
(07:59):
than half of the public having an unfavorable view. That's
a really hard thing to really hard position to be
trying to con the public on when you're an economic crisis.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Jordan I called it before sort of a rare, relatable
charisma that a leader has to have as a prime minister,
and it is such a unique job that so few
can really do.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
It.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Isn't just the wrong person at the wrong time.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
I'm going to push back on that, actually, okay that
I mean Bulger was never well liked, Clark was never
particularly well liked, but they were clearly successful prime ministers.
The problem for the National Party and the Taxpayers Union
has been saying this really since before Christmas with that
Fudge campaign, is that the National Party haven't actually delivered
(08:45):
what was on the tin that they asked the public
to back prior to the last election. They said, you know,
there's lots of rhetoric around cutting spending. Actually spending has increased,
both adjustice for inflation and population. They haven't pulled back
on the on the spending acceleration. The structural deficit is
(09:07):
worse now than it was when Labor left office. The
surplus is now further away than it was when they
were elected, and it's not even a real surplus because
Nicola Willis has invented ober garle X, a new measure
to exclude acc liabilities. I agree with Neil that the
(09:28):
real risk for the National parties they go into the
election saying, look, we're better economic managers, a little bit
like the Tories in Britain. Did the public go no,
you're not what you said you do, you wouldn't do.
But I don't think that's a communication problem. I think
fundamentally that is a failure of the government to follow
through on what it promised prior to the last election.
Speaker 2 (09:50):
It's an issue for the whole team, not just the leader.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
Well, I mean, what is one thing that is a
bit strange in modern National party campaigning has been very
focused around the leader. One of the things that I
think a risk for the national incident in nails on
the scene. The is that they run a sort of
John Key esque style campaign around the leader and try
(10:14):
to make him likable rather than actually bring up the
sort of their second bench. They're sort of Erica Stanford's
of the world that are clearly succeeding in their individual portfolios,
the Mark Mitchell's of the World and Law and Order
for It, for example. But that is that is a
different style of campaign than what the National Party has
(10:36):
delivered in the past. I mean again, I don't necessarily
think it's just a communication thing. I think, particularly on
the economy, as Neil correctly identifies, you know that that yep,
some tough medicine probably needed to be taken at the
be taken at the beginning, but they simply refused to
take it and now as a result it's probably too late.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Neil.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Yeah, look, I hear this a lot, and I argue
with jud Jordan's coming from when he says highlight the team.
And I used to hear this a lot when I
was working for Labor and we had a failing leader.
And I think the problem you've got is, while that
sounds like a good idea, the public have very little
attention for politics. You know, it's really quite impressionistic to
most people. And I think the way that the party's
(11:23):
message and recorders delivered is through the leader is the
key spokesperson. I think, you know, my experience working for
Andrew Little and then for Jisinda Ardun shortly after and
seeing how the polls changed, was that most people were
paying very little attention to our policies, to our spokespeople.
They really wanted to believe they could trust the leader.
And I think that's fundamental for National it's lux and
(11:45):
or it's not, but that's kind of their choice.
Speaker 2 (11:47):
Near unless it's not Lucks and who is it?
Speaker 4 (11:50):
Well this is I think what's holding him in the
job right now is there's no obvious alternative. There's been
talk about Erica Stanford, who's you know, she's had very
good press in education. I think Mark Mitchell, who's you know,
been doing a lot of good work in police. You know,
Nikola Willis probably would have been, but she's too tired
(12:11):
to Luxeon on the economy. And Chris Bishop has been considered,
but he's blottless copy book a few times lately, So
there's no obvious person stands that is sort of scene
as potentially not quite being ready for the job. I'd
probably take a punt on her if I was national.
She's you know, she's she's doumb edged in education and
(12:31):
she's articulate and she provides a real different face for them.
But unless they can find someone to get behind, I
think Luckxelan's probably safe in the job.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
The same names that everyone's throwing out, that everybody's thinking about,
but actually, d I kind of I don't get the
impression that they're all they're raring to take on the role.
They're all sort of just sitting quite happily doing the
jobs in their lanes, doing the jobs they're doing. Well,
it's just pure you know, yeah, regulation on my part.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
Yeah, but that's what this all is about. When I
was a lawyer, I acted for a political party leader
and during a coup, and it was it was astounding.
The degree of naivety from the talking from the chattering heads,
of which I'd put us in that category right now,
is that unless you less they are your colleagues, you
(13:23):
don't necessarily know them. This was Labour's problem, and having
David Cherer sort of not David Shearer, David, you went
through the Davids which one particularly unpopular. When you've got
the membership voting who should be your leader? Is you
actually just you don't know them well enough? The in turn,
I remember in an Act there was always a theory
(13:43):
that that Rodney Hyde and Heather Roy was some sort
of ideological opponents. That wasn't true. On policy, they were
as close as it could be. It was just that
they didn't get along unless you are in that caucus
and understand the personal dynamics. I think it's it's it's
almost pointless to sit a pontificate what's going to who's
(14:04):
going to have the more effective management style? For example?
Certainly we can look at and the data is there
around the favorability unfavorability of the various names that are
being floated about, But then you only need to look
at Luxon himself. It wasn't until he became leader that
his favorabilities absolutely shot up, because people sort of sit
(14:25):
up and take a bit of notice, and you know,
who was this person that has been put in front
of me. Unlike the Judith Collins leadership though, is that
leadership means you become prime minister and there is very
few politicians that would turn that up However, if they
see this as just a hospital pass, that the election
(14:46):
is now unwinnable, I don't think that's the case, because
that's the other message that was missed in this poll. Yes,
the government was behind, but it was sixty one to
fifty nine. It's not contestrip you know. I mean that
is still margin of verra of stuff. And you look
at all the poles the last six months, at least,
David's poles tend to be pretty good, and Labour's internal polls,
(15:07):
the one they choose, the ones they choose the leak,
it is very close.
Speaker 4 (15:11):
I think.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
The other thing that was strange on Friday is that
it appeared Labor leaked their internal polling, which suggested that
it wasn't quite as bad for Christopher Luxan. That is
interesting where you have the opposition party perhaps wanting the
wanting the government to keep the guy they've got. Whether
(15:34):
that's some sort of three D chests going on, Weller,
Actually it is some sort of three D chests going on.
You can interpret it for yourself.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
Neil Jones, Jordan Williams. Lovely to talk to you both
this morning. Thank you very much, gentlemen. And actually you
raise a very good point there. Let's not all forget here.
The pole is still very very close, So there we go.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
For more from the Sunday session with Francesca Rudkin, listen
live to News Talks they'd be from nine am Sunday,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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