Peter Dunne: former Minister and commentator on Winston Peters releasing Luxon's emails on Iran war

There's concerns about the stability of the coalition after National and NZ First had it out last week.

Winston Peters' office released emails showing Prime Minister Chris Luxon wanted the Government to explicitly support US/Israeli action in Iran, which Peters later rejected.

Former Minister and commentator Peter Dunne says Peters is running rings around Luxon ahead of the election - and it's unclear what this could mean for the coalition after the election.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Ruggan
from News Talks, EDB.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Critical commentator, Peter Dunn and Gosh Peter.

Speaker 3 (00:15):
Good morning, Good morning.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
Where do we start? Okay, let's start with the Prime
Minister and Winston Peters. Do you think he leaked the
emails on purpose?

Speaker 3 (00:25):
I think there was a strategy behind it. Yes, And
the strategy is really about establishing and confirming, if you like,
that Peters is the senior partner in the coalition and
that's not just about now, but it's positioning for the
election and potentially beyond.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
Don't they run the risk though, of sabotaging each other?

Speaker 3 (00:42):
Absolutely? And that's I think what the Prime Minister was
trying to hose down. But the problem with it is
that there's a perception being created and being reinforced by
all of this, that the Prime Minister is being run
rings around by Peters. And I think that's the message
Peters wants to get across, that he's the sort of
the senior experienced player here. Now, how that plays out

(01:04):
at election time, we'll have to and see. I just
note that no government that Peters has been part of
has survived a three year term.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
Do you think it will do you think the coalition
will be stable enough?

Speaker 3 (01:16):
I think they'll go to the election. I think they
will go to the election. The question then becomes what
happens after the election, And that's where I think Peter's
comment last week that he would rule more emphatically ruling
out Labor than previously becomes interesting because that what what
that does is send a signal to wavering National voters
that they can safely vote for New Zealand First without

(01:38):
any prospect of at putting Labor in power, if you
believe Peter's word.

Speaker 2 (01:43):
But aren't we really just trading voters between National and
New Zealand First.

Speaker 3 (01:47):
Well, that's what it looks like at the moment. And
in that sense, from the perspective of the long term
viability of the coalition, nothing much changes. It still has
the numbers potentially on that basis to continue in government
with Act after the election. The real issue here, of course,
is if Labor was a more soul, we say, positive

(02:07):
and constructive opposition, it might be attracting those voters and
thus diminishing the problem.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
And I did want to talk. We'll come back to
that in a moment after the revelation that Luxen attempted
to support the war in Iran? Is that a bad
loock for the Prime minister.

Speaker 3 (02:22):
I'll given the EPSOS Pole result that eighty seven percent
of New Zealanders don't think we should be militarily involved
in Iran. I think the Prime Minister's tacit and not
so tacit support for the war is way out of
step with public opinion.

Speaker 2 (02:35):
Okay, you mentioned labor, so let's have a little chat
about that. I tend to think the campaign strategy is
nothing to see here because it's just we can't seem
to get any policy out of them now. They're holding
on till after the election, which point you feel like going,
there's no money, It's okay, you can start releasing policy now.
I know that you know we've spoken before. You did

(02:56):
support their stance to hold back on releasing policy. Do
you think that's still working for them?

Speaker 3 (03:01):
It's getting to wear a little thin now because we're
getting closer to the election. I think that the strategy
is still broadly correct, but I do think they do
need to start fishing out some details. I've said, wait
until after the budget. Well, the parliament will be in
recess for at least a week after the budget it
always is, and that's the time for labor to start
seizing the initiative. If they don't, then the strategy could

(03:25):
look very much like you know, the Emperor's got no clothes, Peter.

Speaker 2 (03:27):
Is the budget really going to change a huge amount
for them?

Speaker 3 (03:30):
Though? Oh, it's a very difficult budget, this one because
of the current international and economic circumstances. Budgets don't change
things per se, but what they can do is indicate
a direction and they can restore what I think's lacking
a lot at the moment, and that's confidence and not
so much the state of the country, but just what

(03:50):
are we doing? And there seems to be a bit
of a vacuum in terms of just what is the response,
and the budget's really got to reinforce here's what we're doing,
this is the plan, and here's how we're going to
go about it. That at least gives you something to
hang on. But at the moment, I think we're just
in this sort of well, we don't really know, we're
books in between. So that's what I'm looking to the
budget for. Then, of course you've got how labor responds

(04:12):
to that, and alongside that the ongoing shenanigans with New Zealand.

Speaker 2 (04:16):
First, I mean, I think nicol Willis really just needs
to deliver it straight. I mean, Peter, we can all
see what's happened. We can all see what's happened to you.
I mean, we know it's out of out control. You know.

Speaker 3 (04:25):
Yeah, I think that's right. I think, no more sugarcoating.
I mean, I think we need the facts and we
need to know. You know, you know, in your own household,
you think I'd like to put on an extra room
or you know, or whatever. I just can't afford it
at the moment. But I'm planning to do it next
year rather than sort of I just can't afford it,

(04:46):
so I'm not going to do it at all. And
I think what people want is the government saying, look,
here's what we intend to do. We can't imagine doing
these things at the moment, but here's the timetable we're
working to longer term, so they get a sense of
what lies ahead. And I think that's what Nicola Willis
has got to do. Just be straight up front, so
you know, here's where we here's what we can do.

(05:06):
These are the things we'd like to do but can't
just yet. But be patient. You know, here's the plan.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
A plan. That's it. Peter, thank you so much, as
always for your insights. Really appreciated. It is twenty one
to ten.

Speaker 1 (05:18):
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