Peter Dunne: former Minister and commentator on what the latest Poll of Polls means for the 2026 election

The shifting support of minor parties is likely to be make or break for November's general election. 

The NZ Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls shows the coalition has a 70 percent chance of being re-elected. 

The current parliamentary opposition's chances has slumped to 7.2 percent.

Former minister Peter Dunne says support for Labour and National will remain fairly consistent. 

"Particularly, keep an eye on New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party - they seem to be where the movement's taking place, although New Zealand First's, I think, peaked a little bit. It's hard to say at this stage."

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:06):
You're listening to the Sunday Session podcast with Francesca Rudgin
from News Talks EDB.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Joining me now is former MP Peter Down to talk politics.

Speaker 3 (00:15):
Good morning Peter, Good morning Francesca.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Wondering if we could start off with the pole of polls,
which kind of takes a bit of a look at
all the poles, brings it together and tells us where
we sit, and we kind of sit where we thought
we sat.

Speaker 3 (00:27):
Don't we That's right. I mean, I've just been looking
at that pole of polls on my own pole of
polls over the last four years, and not a lot's
changed really, and we're back where we were, not quite
before the last election, but pretty close to it. I mean,
I think the big difference has been the drop on
the National Party's support over that time. But then you've
got all the other parties are holding their own. Labour's

(00:49):
coming down quite a lot at the moment, but the
Opportunity Party on the riose, So you know, it's some
sort of there or thereabouts.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Peter.

Speaker 2 (00:56):
Do you think we will see a separation between National
label or do you think it will stay quite tight
and it will be around the more minor parties? That
we see change.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
I think it's likely to be around the minor parties.
At the moment. The National and Labor are pretty much
like railway tracks really the sort of just within a
percentage of each other, and they have been probably for
the last year or so. But the movements amongst the
miners and particularly I keep an eye on New Zealand
First and the Opportunity Party seem to be where the

(01:28):
movement's taking place. Although New Zealand First I think may
have peaked a little bit, it's hard to say at
the stage keep.

Speaker 2 (01:34):
An eye on it. I'd love to talk to you
a little bit about defense because is quite happening in
the sitt of Neck of the Woods. New Zealand is
set to explore joining a Fiji Australian defense alliance. This
would mean that Fiji would become New Zealand's second defense
ally in addition to Australia. How would you feel about
that move? Is it a good move for New Zealand.

Speaker 3 (01:53):
I think it's a logical move. Whether it's going to
be an effective move, I think is another question because frankly,
the capacity between those three really largely lies with Australia,
and that's going to raise its own tensions due course,
if from the orchestraal proceeds. For instance, I think the
bigger picture question is what does that sort of an
alliance do in terms of the reaction of the Chinese

(02:16):
and the United States, And you know, it is further
escalating tension in the region to our overall advantage or disadvantage.
And I think that's really we just have to wait see.
But the other thing on the side of that is
I noticed as part of the Indian discussion yesterday there's
talk about defense cooperation and I think that adds a
whole new dimension to it as well. If New Zealand

(02:38):
has some sort of a defense partnership with India, that
gives us perhaps just another bit of breathing space, if
you like.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
We spoke to doctor Jeffrey Miller about that this morning
and he did call it quite radical and that New
Zealand does need to be careful about who they lend
their name and reputation to when it comes to keeping
a balanced approach with China.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
Yeah, and I think the problem in New Zealand's got
is because of our overwhelming economic dependence on China, we
can't afford to upset them too much, which means we've
got to pull out punches whenever they do something that
we don't like, like fire missiles into the Pacific again,
So that sort of compromises us, But the possibility is there.
I think with the Indian arrangement, just to give us

(03:17):
a little another sort of more flexibility. We're not so
totally dependent economically on China as we might might be
at the moment. But you know all, I think we're
in an environment internationally at the moment where one of
the things that Trump has caused is every country to
look at it at its defense relationships and who it
can work with and who it can align with in

(03:39):
stressful situations. And I think that's where the specific deal
sort of grows from.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
Peter, I was wondering, do you follow UK politics these days?

Speaker 3 (03:47):
I do, yes.

Speaker 4 (03:47):
I I want to ask you really quickly what you
made of Nigel Farage this week, because he's done to
pull off a by election to distract everybody from his
financial controversy. He's and it's all backfired on him and
he's up against demand wearing a flashy trash bin called
count Binface.

Speaker 2 (04:02):
How would how would how would you deal? With this, Peter,
if you got yourself into this situation, well.

Speaker 3 (04:07):
I don't think you get yourself into that situation in
the first place. The problem Farage has got of course,
he's doing this to try and forestall any parliamentary inquiry
into his spending. Parliament can't inquire into his spending if
he's not an MP. But if he wins the by election,
and what he's hoping to do is win the by
election by such an overwhelming majority that he scares the
Parliamentary Committee off, but that seems unlikely. So if he

(04:30):
wins the by election, the parliamentary inquiry continues and we
end up right back where we started, and potentially he's
found to have led them over his spending and then
he gets chucked out. So it's all a bit of
a circus.

Speaker 2 (04:41):
Could this possibly be the end of Farrage?

Speaker 3 (04:44):
Well, it could be the beginning of the end, and
I think it's really quite interesting. I think it's really
quite interesting in terms of people like New Zealand first
one nation in Australia, all the parties that have sort
of modeled themselves on reform might now wish to have
second thoughts about that.

Speaker 2 (04:59):
Peter Dunn Thank you so much for your thoughts. Always
love you.

Speaker 1 (05:01):
To catch up for more from the Sunday Session with
Francesca Run listen live to News Talks at B from
nine am Sunday, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio