March 7, 2026 • 8 mins
The Prime Minister's leadership within his own party is being questioned after he didn't fare well in a Taxpayers' Union poll this week.
It has National down 2.9 points to 28.4% - but most notably, it suggests that the centre-left bloc could form a government in November. It'll be very tight though, with 61 seats for the left and 59 for the right.
Luxon sits at 21% for preferred prime minister, while Hipkins is at 22.7%.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
I'd be Prime Minister's leadership within his own party has
getting a bit of questioning after he didn't farewell in
the Taxpayer Union Courier poll this week. It has national
down two point nine to twenty eight point four percent,
but most notably, it suggests that the center left block
could form a government in November. It'll be tight over
sixty one seats for the left and fifty nine for
the right. Luxton sits at twenty one percent for preferred PM,
(00:30):
while Hipkins at twenty two point seven and former senior
Labor advisor Clint Swith is Clint Smith is with me now,
Clint today good to good. So why did everyone get
so excited about one pole?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
It's interesting today because on the surface it's one pole
when you said you don't only narrow lead for the
opposition parties. But I think it's two things. It's the
trend so that Labour's pulled ahead of National mid last
year and that gets getting wide and wide, and you're
starting to see these poles come through where the opposition
would be able to perform government. And the other thing
(01:04):
wrying about there's if national they start to sisionselves Paul
in the high twenties, and there's a tipping point where
people will go at these guys aren't going to win,
so maybe I should give my vote to Labor so
they won't independent to party Maori for example. People start
to think strategically when they think that the you're not
going to win. And I mean I was there in
(01:24):
Labor when we had some situations like that and you
see your vote collapsed by five percent very quickly, So
they'll be worried about that.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
So it's not just noise then, I mean, how seriously
should a the Prime minister take it and be his
colleagues when it's a single poll, because we could be
one headlined away from one news saying oh, poll's showing
the government's looking good.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Yeah, absolutely, that's right. It could turn round. You know,
there could be another one and anyone I'll go, okay, sure,
But I think what they're worried about is, you know,
they've been hoping that they've been seeing this trend, and
they'll be hoping that the economic recovery is going to
break that trend and start to wear things back towards
the government. Now that recovery is and shaky Lucky hasn't
(02:07):
dealt with it well this week. And that's say is
it's this guy going to be able to get us
through the campaign? And yeah, that's the worry.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Do you think that there is a deeper problem with
the leadership of the party in the direction or is
this sort of like a bit of a mid term
in mid late term sort of blip?
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah, I mean Lux has never been popular as a leader,
but then he managed to get National League did last
time despite that, so you know, maybe he can pull
it around. And this is the tricky position that they are.
In his senior colleague, I'll be sitting around saying, well,
you know, it's the olderabouts. We might lose U. It
would be very embarrassing interest, but we might get through.
(02:49):
And could any of us do better? There's the question,
would having Chris Bishop or Wrick Stanford and his place
Bruce Pauling? Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. I don't
see his solid proofs that it would.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Who would your pick be? Assuming he said, and you know,
an imagine real world resteps aside.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
You know, yeah, yeah, I think it would be between
between Bishop and Stanford. I've known bishop for years. He's
very capable guy, very smart guy. I don't think he
is necessarily as personable as Eric Stanford. But then she
hasn't had the hard leadership experience, so you know it
would be a bit of a punt and the Christian
(03:28):
then would will be what Amiston little willis? Would she
have to go as well? So it would be missing
and there's no guarantee it's going to lead to a
better position with him where they are now?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Do personal ratings matter or is it just that everyone
looks at the party vote.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
But the matter at the extent if you're the analysts
sitting there saying is this guy helping lift the boat
or is he an anchor? And I was there working
found you little when he was leader and he realized
that he was pulling Labor back and he made very
courageous decision and say, look, I'm going to step aside.
(04:07):
There's someone here who I think can actually lift the boat.
That was, of course, just Sindra Don and we all
remember what happened there.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, Labour's got a good result, of course, and they
haven't really announced much they how long is this going
to be a winning strategy for them? Is that what
Luxon's dying to get into. You know, I come on,
Labor finally announce something. We can they have the bogy
Man at last.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah, Well, I mean the big hope had been for
National that the caperal gains tax would be another disaster
for Labor, but I think they were quite clear and
the way they announced it time, specifically to those free
GP visit's kind of neutralized the issue quite well. I think.
You know, I have to say, I'm surprised how well
Labour's doing when when Chrysicon stayed on, I thought it
(04:52):
would be very quiet and they would muddle around in
the twenties, but they have picked up in criticisms, so
you know, I think they will continue a strategy of
not sort of interrupting their opponent when he's making mistake.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Does like also need to take a radical change and
approach to because I get the sense that you know,
with the with the press pack, there's a little bit
of blood in the water, it's like parana, and they're
going to go for more and more to try and
get that sound bite of him stumbling again. So how
does he turn that around so that you know, look
over there somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah, it is very hard to change a narrative once
it's lockdown. Being there with leaders like Andrew Litterley got
the narrative turned against them and it's really hard to
change the script. He has had to be prepared to
do something bold, and that would been omitting that what
he's been doing hasn't been working. And I'm not sure
(05:44):
that's in them. We haven't seen a lot of contriteness
from him or you know, willing to go. Maybe maybe
we've mechanim priorities. Maybe we need to focus on people's
same matters, which is cost of living.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Do any politicians have that sort of level of self
deflection in public?
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Look, it's it's between but you know, when you leader,
you have to have those guards to say, actually, I
might be the problem here.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
What would you what would you advise him if he
was seeking your advice? I need to turn this around, Clint.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Yeah, well I would look at what what can we
do to get behind people at cost of living? So
all this stuff about looking at four your terms not
a referender, and all the stuff that seems as a distraction,
I would drop that off my agenda and I would
say what we do to boost people and get them
(06:39):
through this and and you might have to be prepared
to you know, demote some people who you know, you
might think actually doing a good job but haven't risen
with the public. And you would have to consider we've
that include yourself.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
You know, is there something just as a last question,
you know, because we stuck in this presidential style of
politics and I've always had this, I've recently had the
thought that maybe National best chance lies in emphasizing the team,
matching them one for one with it. You know, here's
the minister for this, here's the opposition spokesperson made. Your
(07:13):
choice is Stanford Mitchell's. You know, the lineup of ministers
have been performing well. Is the team ever going to win?
Or is it always going to be presidential?
Speaker 3 (07:23):
It has become quite presidential. There was one campaign I
think it would have been seventy two or from FA
before my time. I have to say, but we're National
ran on that they said man for man best team.
Of course it was the sixism of the day, but
that might be you know, there might be a better
approach to de emphasize lux and because you know, you
(07:44):
look at you know, Simon Brown's done well to sort
of similar things down in health. I think Chris Bishop's
scene is performing well, of Stanford's seen is performing well,
probably Paul Golsos as well, and Mark Mitchell, so he
could they could try a team approach. It is hard though,
because you know, the guy who's out there every day
(08:04):
is Facebook Party as a leader, and it's quite hard
to get past.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Hey, Clint, I really appreciate time this afternoon. Thanks so much.
That is That's Clint Smith's former advisor to to Labor
and the Ardean government.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
I'd be Prime Minister's leadership within his own party has
getting a bit of questioning after he didn't farewell in
the Taxpayer Union Courier poll this week. It has national
down two point nine to twenty eight point four percent,
but most notably, it suggests that the center left block
could form a government in November. It'll be tight over
sixty one seats for the left and fifty nine for
the right. Luxton sits at twenty one percent for preferred PM,
(00:30):
while Hipkins at twenty two point seven and former senior
Labor advisor Clint Swith is Clint Smith is with me now,
Clint today good to good. So why did everyone get
so excited about one pole?
Speaker 3 (00:44):
It's interesting today because on the surface it's one pole
when you said you don't only narrow lead for the
opposition parties. But I think it's two things. It's the
trend so that Labour's pulled ahead of National mid last
year and that gets getting wide and wide, and you're
starting to see these poles come through where the opposition
would be able to perform government. And the other thing
(01:04):
wrying about there's if national they start to sisionselves Paul
in the high twenties, and there's a tipping point where
people will go at these guys aren't going to win,
so maybe I should give my vote to Labor so
they won't independent to party Maori for example. People start
to think strategically when they think that the you're not
going to win. And I mean I was there in
(01:24):
Labor when we had some situations like that and you
see your vote collapsed by five percent very quickly, So
they'll be worried about that.
Speaker 2 (01:31):
So it's not just noise then, I mean, how seriously
should a the Prime minister take it and be his
colleagues when it's a single poll, because we could be
one headlined away from one news saying oh, poll's showing
the government's looking good.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Yeah, absolutely, that's right. It could turn round. You know,
there could be another one and anyone I'll go, okay, sure,
But I think what they're worried about is, you know,
they've been hoping that they've been seeing this trend, and
they'll be hoping that the economic recovery is going to
break that trend and start to wear things back towards
the government. Now that recovery is and shaky Lucky hasn't
(02:07):
dealt with it well this week. And that's say is
it's this guy going to be able to get us
through the campaign? And yeah, that's the worry.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Do you think that there is a deeper problem with
the leadership of the party in the direction or is
this sort of like a bit of a mid term
in mid late term sort of blip?
Speaker 3 (02:27):
Yeah, I mean Lux has never been popular as a leader,
but then he managed to get National League did last
time despite that, so you know, maybe he can pull
it around. And this is the tricky position that they are.
In his senior colleague, I'll be sitting around saying, well,
you know, it's the olderabouts. We might lose U. It
would be very embarrassing interest, but we might get through.
(02:49):
And could any of us do better? There's the question,
would having Chris Bishop or Wrick Stanford and his place
Bruce Pauling? Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. I don't
see his solid proofs that it would.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
Who would your pick be? Assuming he said, and you know,
an imagine real world resteps aside.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
You know, yeah, yeah, I think it would be between
between Bishop and Stanford. I've known bishop for years. He's
very capable guy, very smart guy. I don't think he
is necessarily as personable as Eric Stanford. But then she
hasn't had the hard leadership experience, so you know it
would be a bit of a punt and the Christian
(03:28):
then would will be what Amiston little willis? Would she
have to go as well? So it would be missing
and there's no guarantee it's going to lead to a
better position with him where they are now?
Speaker 2 (03:39):
Do personal ratings matter or is it just that everyone
looks at the party vote.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
But the matter at the extent if you're the analysts
sitting there saying is this guy helping lift the boat
or is he an anchor? And I was there working
found you little when he was leader and he realized
that he was pulling Labor back and he made very
courageous decision and say, look, I'm going to step aside.
(04:07):
There's someone here who I think can actually lift the boat.
That was, of course, just Sindra Don and we all
remember what happened there.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, Labour's got a good result, of course, and they
haven't really announced much they how long is this going
to be a winning strategy for them? Is that what
Luxon's dying to get into. You know, I come on,
Labor finally announce something. We can they have the bogy
Man at last.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah, Well, I mean the big hope had been for
National that the caperal gains tax would be another disaster
for Labor, but I think they were quite clear and
the way they announced it time, specifically to those free
GP visit's kind of neutralized the issue quite well. I think.
You know, I have to say, I'm surprised how well
Labour's doing when when Chrysicon stayed on, I thought it
(04:52):
would be very quiet and they would muddle around in
the twenties, but they have picked up in criticisms, so
you know, I think they will continue a strategy of
not sort of interrupting their opponent when he's making mistake.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Does like also need to take a radical change and
approach to because I get the sense that you know,
with the with the press pack, there's a little bit
of blood in the water, it's like parana, and they're
going to go for more and more to try and
get that sound bite of him stumbling again. So how
does he turn that around so that you know, look
over there somewhere else.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah, it is very hard to change a narrative once
it's lockdown. Being there with leaders like Andrew Litterley got
the narrative turned against them and it's really hard to
change the script. He has had to be prepared to
do something bold, and that would been omitting that what
he's been doing hasn't been working. And I'm not sure
(05:44):
that's in them. We haven't seen a lot of contriteness
from him or you know, willing to go. Maybe maybe
we've mechanim priorities. Maybe we need to focus on people's
same matters, which is cost of living.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Do any politicians have that sort of level of self
deflection in public?
Speaker 3 (06:01):
Look, it's it's between but you know, when you leader,
you have to have those guards to say, actually, I
might be the problem here.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
What would you what would you advise him if he
was seeking your advice? I need to turn this around, Clint.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Yeah, well I would look at what what can we
do to get behind people at cost of living? So
all this stuff about looking at four your terms not
a referender, and all the stuff that seems as a distraction,
I would drop that off my agenda and I would
say what we do to boost people and get them
(06:39):
through this and and you might have to be prepared
to you know, demote some people who you know, you
might think actually doing a good job but haven't risen
with the public. And you would have to consider we've
that include yourself.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
You know, is there something just as a last question,
you know, because we stuck in this presidential style of
politics and I've always had this, I've recently had the
thought that maybe National best chance lies in emphasizing the team,
matching them one for one with it. You know, here's
the minister for this, here's the opposition spokesperson made. Your
(07:13):
choice is Stanford Mitchell's. You know, the lineup of ministers
have been performing well. Is the team ever going to win?
Or is it always going to be presidential?
Speaker 3 (07:23):
It has become quite presidential. There was one campaign I
think it would have been seventy two or from FA
before my time. I have to say, but we're National
ran on that they said man for man best team.
Of course it was the sixism of the day, but
that might be you know, there might be a better
approach to de emphasize lux and because you know, you
(07:44):
look at you know, Simon Brown's done well to sort
of similar things down in health. I think Chris Bishop's
scene is performing well, of Stanford's seen is performing well,
probably Paul Golsos as well, and Mark Mitchell, so he
could they could try a team approach. It is hard though,
because you know, the guy who's out there every day
(08:04):
is Facebook Party as a leader, and it's quite hard
to get past.
Speaker 2 (08:08):
Hey, Clint, I really appreciate time this afternoon. Thanks so much.
That is That's Clint Smith's former advisor to to Labor
and the Ardean government.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
Talks'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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