February 28, 2026 • 16 mins
A joint US–Israeli strike on Iran overnight has triggered retaliatory missile attacks from Tehran, raising fears of a wider regional escalation.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the strikes - a claim Iran denied until half an hour ago, with officials saying he was “safe and sound” and “actively commanding the field”.
International reaction has been mixed, with some governments condemning the strikes, others urging restraint, and many calling for urgent diplomatic talks.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Listen
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks AB.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yes, right, Well, as you've heard in the news, joint
US Israeli strike on Iran overnight has triggered retaliatory missile
strikes from Tehran, raising fears of a wider regional escalation.
It's been confirmed by Iran sources as well that the
Supreme Leader of Iran i Talla Ali Kamani, was killed
(00:31):
in the strikes, and international reaction has been mixed, with
some governments condemning the strikes, others urging restraint manage calling
for urgent diplomatic talks. Of course, the missile strikes continue
as we speak. It's very much the developing situation. And
geopolitical analyst doctor Jeffrey Miller joins me now at Jeffrey
Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Good afternoon, Tim.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well, the Supreme leader looks to be dead. Is that good?
Speaker 4 (00:58):
I looked.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
It's just been so much happening. It hasn't even been
twenty four hours since it's all picked off. But yes,
we do seem to have now the official confirmation. We've
got the confirmation from the Iranian side that the Supreme leader,
the Jamine is dead. It's quite a moment. He's been
the supreme leader in power and around since nineteen eighty nine,
almost forty years, and he's really been the architect of
(01:19):
Iranian foreign policy since then. He's been the mastermind behind
the various proxy groups, his Bella Hamas and so on.
The who he's in Yemen and he's gone now, and
so we simply don't know. We're in the great unknown.
We don't know who is going to succeed him. Several
of the other top leaders have also been taken out
(01:41):
by these US has rarely strikes. It's a real Pandora's
box that's been opened. In the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I saw a comment that Trump says this could be
over in a week, which, off the top of my
head is someone who's not steeped in knowledge about this area,
does seem to me to be pretty a bit of
a naive comment. What do you reckon?
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Well, look, I think Donald Trump has unleashed forces that
he may not be able to control at this point.
And I'm paraphrasing there. Antonio Guteris, the UN Secretary General
who said as much at a special session of the
Yuan Security Council today, And you know, Donald Trump may
just want to pack up and go home because he's
had that success that Russia blood to the head of
(02:26):
killing the supreme leader of Iran. Remember, Donald Trump's loves
these big performative strikes killing individuals, whether it's cut him
so the money. He still talks about that the top
Iranian general that he killed back in twenty twenty. He
loves these performative strikes and being able to claim victory.
Seizing Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela at the start of the
(02:46):
year is another example. But you've seen the Iranian response.
Iran has struck back at eight countries. It's just incredible.
In the last twenty four hours, Iran has sent drones
and missiles to five of the six Golf Cooperation Council countries.
In other words, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwa, the United Arab Emirates,
(03:08):
all of these countries, Saudi Arabia, and then you've got Jordan,
You've got a Raq and of course Israel itself. All
of the Golf countries Cuta as well have been attacked
except Oman, and they've done real damage to the likes
of Dubai Airport, the Borgeal Arab that yacht like hotel
(03:29):
structure that is one of the symbols of Dubai. They
have attacked that and it's on fire. Hotels. It's just
extraordinary the pictures that are coming out of the Gulf States.
These are typically havens of stability. They certainly not now.
And you just wonder what's going to happen next, because
there will be a great.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Desire in Iran and amongst the.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Regime to avenge the deaths of the Supreme Leader of
Ali Himenei, and so I think the gloves will be
off as far as Iran is concerned. Then this is
not the performative strife against the US air base and
Kuta that was telegraphed in advance that we saw last June.
This is something of a completely different magnitude.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Was they strike in any way justified under international law?
Speaker 3 (04:16):
I don't think so, because there was no imminent threat
from Iran. Iran was not going to strike at the
United States tomorrow, It wasn't going to strike Israel next week.
Iran had had been very much not decimated, but it
had been weakened severely by that war they twelve day
war last June, and there were negotiations were ongoing. We
(04:39):
had that the third round of negotiations between the United
States and Iran broken by Oman in Geneva on Thursday,
and there was talk that there was going to be
another round of negotiations in Vienna at a technical level
this coming week, but that just hasn't happened, and instead
you've had the United States once again use diplomacy really
(05:03):
is covered for a great deception, and they came in
when we kind of in a way, we weren't expecting it.
We both we thought that something could happen, but the
timing of this it came just before ten am, around
time we would normally expect a strike to come in
the middle of the night at local time in Iran,
but it came during the day, and it came when
(05:26):
the negotiations did seem to be ongoing to an extent.
But yet, of course, we've had this massive military build
up by the United States over the last two months,
and it seemed that everything was in place, and the
final piece of the jigsaw puzzle was the US aircraft carrier,
the Gerald R. Ford, which is the US's biggest aircraft carrier,
arriving off the coast of Israel to provide air defense support.
(05:48):
But Iran has done some real damage over the last
twenty four hours to Israel. There have been missiles hitting
Tel Aviv. And that was the lesson from the war
last year, from June last year, that Iran is not
to be sniffed at when it comes to these miss
and drones. They've got some quite decent hardware and they're
able to do real damage despite all the air defense
(06:11):
technology that is available. And you just look at Bahrain
for example. The attacks have been there on the US
naval base, so the US A fleet is based in
Bahrain and that will be well guarded with air defense systems,
and yet they've managed to get through. So I think
Iran is more capable than many people think. And of
(06:32):
course the strategy from the US and as well will
be to try and degrade as much of their ballistic
missile systems and to try and get air superiority. But
I'm not sure it's going to be as easy as that,
and I just think we just simply don't know what's
going to happen next. I think, as I said, there
are forces now at work that no one can really control.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
There seems to be I wonder if there's the expectation
or the hope from the US administration that this will
pave the way for change. But I guess the question
is what sort of change. I mean, is there a
chance there be some people who'd be dancing in the streets,
possibly the idea that supreme leaders dead. There's also the
opportunity that hardliners might just be empowered to get in.
(07:14):
Isn't that What do you think? What sort of change?
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Indeed, look, Donald Trump hopes for regime change, and in
a statement last night New Zealand Time that came out,
I think that was really what his main focus was
of that statement. I mean, to give Donald Trump his credit,
he didn't really try and sugarcoat this. He didn't really
(07:37):
try and claim this was a self defense operation. I mean,
he mentioned imminent threats in the introduction, but then he
went very quickly on to giving a laundry list in
a history lesson about how evil Irah was and all
the things that Iran had done over the years to
the United States. And he ended by really calling for
(07:59):
regime change. He said, when we are finished, take over
your government. That's addressed to the Iranian people. It will
be your to take this will be probably your only
chance for generations. This is the moment for action. Do
not let it past. He's very clearly calling for regime change,
and he expects Iranians to rise up.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
Overthrow the regime and.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Have a better tomorrow as he would see it. But
I think it's equally likely as you suggest, that we
end up with hardliners and power around revolutionary guard corps.
I think will supply the next.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
Leader, And will that leader be more or.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
Less amenable to the United States. I think, given what
we've seen over the last twenty four hours, they will
be much more likely to be far more hardline and
even less tolerant of the United States. So I just
think we're in for a tough time that I think
the easiest way pointing it. I think we're twenty hours
(08:59):
in and I think we're just at the beginning of
what's going to be a nasty, wider regional war that's
going to have very much global consequences, including I might
add for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Well, what consequences do you see there?
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Well, you just look at where Iran is geopolitically. It
sits there on the Strait Off Moves alone. That's responsible
for twenty percent of the world's oil flows through that
narrow strait, that narrow corridor between the Gulf, the Arab
Gulf States and Iran. Seventy five percent of that oil
goes to Asia, in other words, to US. New Zealand
(09:33):
imports its oil now in refined form from big refineries
in Japan and Singapore, Indonesia, and that oil largely is
coming out of the Gulf States, coming out of the
Middle East. There are already ships that are avoiding the
straight of Hall Moves. Now. Iran has not introduced a
formal blockade of that strait yet. That may still happen,
(09:55):
but even if it doesn't, you're going to see ships
avoid that area, and shipping companies already are announcing that.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
To one degree or another because of this year of risk.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
I mean, would you want to navigate through that narrow
waterway while there are missiles and drones overflying the water.
Probably not. You just look at also aviation. Dubai Airport
is shut down effectively at the moment, many many New
Zealanders will fly through Dubai Airport on their way to
other parts of the Middle East and of course to Europe.
(10:29):
I was transitting through Dubai Airport a couple of weeks ago,
many many New Zealanders do. So you know, there are
just so many second order ramifications. But oil prices could
be the big one. We'll seek at an indication of
that this week.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
And there already are slightly elevated.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
They are over the seventy US dollar barrel mark. When
you couple that with a week in New Zealand dollar
is quite a powerful combination, and then it could really
see prices of the pump head northwards pretty soon.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Do you think the US has a credible endgame?
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Look, I think all all plans are great until you get.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Punched in the face.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
I think it was the quote from Mike Tyson, and
you know it always sounds good on paper. George W.
Bush thought regime change sounded like a great idea in
Iraq in two thousand and three. And look, they've had
some success here with the death of the Supreme Leader
Arley Kamina, and Donald Trump will be drunken on power.
(11:27):
I think at this point he will see this, while
this is a big win, We've got the head of
the snake. But George Bush had that mission accomplished banner
back in Iraq in two thousand and three, in May
two thousand and three. What came after that was just
chaos and destruction in a brutal civil war. So my
question is what's going to come after this death of
(11:47):
the Supreme leader of Iran. It's unlikely to be suddenly,
you know, peace and harmony and goodwill. It's going to
be a bloody all our conflict.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
I think domestically for the president, you know, an action
like this can in the short term sort of bring
the rallying cry of patriotism.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
But what are.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
The risks for him domestically Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Well, the risks is that this goes very very badly
and very very quickly. It turns into an absolute mess
in the Middle East. And ironically, Donald Trump's issued a
national security strategy in December, echoing previous presidents like Barack Obama,
saying that he didn't want to be part of the
Middle East, that the US was turning its attention to
(12:34):
the Indo Pacific, in that the Middle East was now
going to become a more peaceful region. That's just simply
not happening now as of today, things are much much worse.
But it's just it's quite incredible to watch what's what's
going on? And you have to think about some of
the ironies here about Donald Trump being a chairman of
(12:54):
the Board of Peace and being the recipient of the
Fief of Peace Prize that he was awarded both Giovanni
and Fantino back in December. And he's just started now
probably the biggest war that the US has been involved
in since probably at least two thousand and three, the
Iraq War. But we've talked about many momentous events to
(13:15):
him on your show over the past year or so.
I remember a year ago talking to you when Donald
Trump was in the White House and upbraiding Volodi Meslenski.
There have been so many monumental events with what we've
seen with the Middle East, with the war in Gaza,
the Pager attacks on his Billa, the attacks from the
(13:37):
Huthis and Yemen. The list could go on. There was
Israel's invasion of Lebanon. But I think this is the
twenty eighth of February yesterday. This will just be well,
this will go and I think the history books probably
is the biggest single day since at least October the seventh,
twenty twenty three, and possibly even bigger than that. I
(13:58):
just think this has just got such a regional and
global significance. This is a catastrophe really in the Middle East,
and Donald Trump will now have to own it. You know,
he started it. He's going to have to fix things up.
So you know that the consequences and the ramplifications are
just enormous.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
Here.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Okay, Lucky last questions, what's the best case scenario that
happens as a result of this.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
The best case scenario is that callerheads prevail and that
all sides go back to the negotiating table, perhaps with
Oman the golf state of Oman is a broker once again,
and that all sides realize that it's not in their
interest to continue this conflict further and they need to
stop a bad situation from getting even worse. I think
that's the situation New Zeala needs to be speaking out for,
(14:44):
because that's the only hope really of salvaging anything here.
The worst cases of this just files into an all
out conflict, a civil war in Iran, potentially a wider
regional war involving many many other countries around the Middle
East and around the world. I think, unfortunately, we're probably
more likely to go down there latter road than the former,
(15:06):
But we have to think keeps speaking out in favor
of diplomacying in favor of dialogue de escalation might seem
pretty bleak right now, but I don't think there's any
point in carrying water for Donald Trump. New Zealand came
out with quite a weak statement today, the joint statement
from Christopher Luxeen and Winston Tis.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
It implicitly condoned the US and as Raeli strikes. I
think it was the wrong strategy to take. Other leaders, like.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
The Spanish prime minters to have been much.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
Clearer and condemning.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
The US attacks. And I think we need to think
about the likes of Oman that have been broken in
these piece talks. They probably knew that they were being
deceived and that Donald Trump and it was just going
to do what he liked, and that's what's happened. But
we should be standing up for the likes of O'man
and these golf states. These are our friends in the region.
New Zealand's got good relations, good trading relations Donald so
(15:56):
Christopher Luxen was up in the UAE last year signing
a trade agreement. We should be thinking also about these
golf tacks, and we should be thinking about New Zealand's
own security and the way that we make our living
in the world, and we make it through peace and prosperity,
and a regional war in the Middle East is not
a New Zealand's interest and it's not in the global interest.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
Well, hey, Jeffrey, I really appreciate your time this afternoon.
It's probably not the first time entered an interview with
you with saying fingers crossed, but I really appreciate your time.
Thanks very much.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk ZB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks AB.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Yes, right, Well, as you've heard in the news, joint
US Israeli strike on Iran overnight has triggered retaliatory missile
strikes from Tehran, raising fears of a wider regional escalation.
It's been confirmed by Iran sources as well that the
Supreme Leader of Iran i Talla Ali Kamani, was killed
(00:31):
in the strikes, and international reaction has been mixed, with
some governments condemning the strikes, others urging restraint manage calling
for urgent diplomatic talks. Of course, the missile strikes continue
as we speak. It's very much the developing situation. And
geopolitical analyst doctor Jeffrey Miller joins me now at Jeffrey
Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Good afternoon, Tim.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well, the Supreme leader looks to be dead. Is that good?
Speaker 4 (00:58):
I looked.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
It's just been so much happening. It hasn't even been
twenty four hours since it's all picked off. But yes,
we do seem to have now the official confirmation. We've
got the confirmation from the Iranian side that the Supreme leader,
the Jamine is dead. It's quite a moment. He's been
the supreme leader in power and around since nineteen eighty nine,
almost forty years, and he's really been the architect of
(01:19):
Iranian foreign policy since then. He's been the mastermind behind
the various proxy groups, his Bella Hamas and so on.
The who he's in Yemen and he's gone now, and
so we simply don't know. We're in the great unknown.
We don't know who is going to succeed him. Several
of the other top leaders have also been taken out
(01:41):
by these US has rarely strikes. It's a real Pandora's
box that's been opened. In the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
I saw a comment that Trump says this could be
over in a week, which, off the top of my
head is someone who's not steeped in knowledge about this area,
does seem to me to be pretty a bit of
a naive comment. What do you reckon?
Speaker 3 (02:02):
Well, look, I think Donald Trump has unleashed forces that
he may not be able to control at this point.
And I'm paraphrasing there. Antonio Guteris, the UN Secretary General
who said as much at a special session of the
Yuan Security Council today, And you know, Donald Trump may
just want to pack up and go home because he's
had that success that Russia blood to the head of
(02:26):
killing the supreme leader of Iran. Remember, Donald Trump's loves
these big performative strikes killing individuals, whether it's cut him
so the money. He still talks about that the top
Iranian general that he killed back in twenty twenty. He
loves these performative strikes and being able to claim victory.
Seizing Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela at the start of the
(02:46):
year is another example. But you've seen the Iranian response.
Iran has struck back at eight countries. It's just incredible.
In the last twenty four hours, Iran has sent drones
and missiles to five of the six Golf Cooperation Council countries.
In other words, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwa, the United Arab Emirates,
(03:08):
all of these countries, Saudi Arabia, and then you've got Jordan,
You've got a Raq and of course Israel itself. All
of the Golf countries Cuta as well have been attacked
except Oman, and they've done real damage to the likes
of Dubai Airport, the Borgeal Arab that yacht like hotel
(03:29):
structure that is one of the symbols of Dubai. They
have attacked that and it's on fire. Hotels. It's just
extraordinary the pictures that are coming out of the Gulf States.
These are typically havens of stability. They certainly not now.
And you just wonder what's going to happen next, because
there will be a great.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Desire in Iran and amongst the.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Regime to avenge the deaths of the Supreme Leader of
Ali Himenei, and so I think the gloves will be
off as far as Iran is concerned. Then this is
not the performative strife against the US air base and
Kuta that was telegraphed in advance that we saw last June.
This is something of a completely different magnitude.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Was they strike in any way justified under international law?
Speaker 3 (04:16):
I don't think so, because there was no imminent threat
from Iran. Iran was not going to strike at the
United States tomorrow, It wasn't going to strike Israel next week.
Iran had had been very much not decimated, but it
had been weakened severely by that war they twelve day
war last June, and there were negotiations were ongoing. We
(04:39):
had that the third round of negotiations between the United
States and Iran broken by Oman in Geneva on Thursday,
and there was talk that there was going to be
another round of negotiations in Vienna at a technical level
this coming week, but that just hasn't happened, and instead
you've had the United States once again use diplomacy really
(05:03):
is covered for a great deception, and they came in
when we kind of in a way, we weren't expecting it.
We both we thought that something could happen, but the
timing of this it came just before ten am, around
time we would normally expect a strike to come in
the middle of the night at local time in Iran,
but it came during the day, and it came when
(05:26):
the negotiations did seem to be ongoing to an extent.
But yet, of course, we've had this massive military build
up by the United States over the last two months,
and it seemed that everything was in place, and the
final piece of the jigsaw puzzle was the US aircraft carrier,
the Gerald R. Ford, which is the US's biggest aircraft carrier,
arriving off the coast of Israel to provide air defense support.
(05:48):
But Iran has done some real damage over the last
twenty four hours to Israel. There have been missiles hitting
Tel Aviv. And that was the lesson from the war
last year, from June last year, that Iran is not
to be sniffed at when it comes to these miss
and drones. They've got some quite decent hardware and they're
able to do real damage despite all the air defense
(06:11):
technology that is available. And you just look at Bahrain
for example. The attacks have been there on the US
naval base, so the US A fleet is based in
Bahrain and that will be well guarded with air defense systems,
and yet they've managed to get through. So I think
Iran is more capable than many people think. And of
(06:32):
course the strategy from the US and as well will
be to try and degrade as much of their ballistic
missile systems and to try and get air superiority. But
I'm not sure it's going to be as easy as that,
and I just think we just simply don't know what's
going to happen next. I think, as I said, there
are forces now at work that no one can really control.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
There seems to be I wonder if there's the expectation
or the hope from the US administration that this will
pave the way for change. But I guess the question
is what sort of change. I mean, is there a
chance there be some people who'd be dancing in the streets,
possibly the idea that supreme leaders dead. There's also the
opportunity that hardliners might just be empowered to get in.
(07:14):
Isn't that What do you think? What sort of change?
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Indeed, look, Donald Trump hopes for regime change, and in
a statement last night New Zealand Time that came out,
I think that was really what his main focus was
of that statement. I mean, to give Donald Trump his credit,
he didn't really try and sugarcoat this. He didn't really
(07:37):
try and claim this was a self defense operation. I mean,
he mentioned imminent threats in the introduction, but then he
went very quickly on to giving a laundry list in
a history lesson about how evil Irah was and all
the things that Iran had done over the years to
the United States. And he ended by really calling for
(07:59):
regime change. He said, when we are finished, take over
your government. That's addressed to the Iranian people. It will
be your to take this will be probably your only
chance for generations. This is the moment for action. Do
not let it past. He's very clearly calling for regime change,
and he expects Iranians to rise up.
Speaker 4 (08:17):
Overthrow the regime and.
Speaker 3 (08:21):
Have a better tomorrow as he would see it. But
I think it's equally likely as you suggest, that we
end up with hardliners and power around revolutionary guard corps.
I think will supply the next.
Speaker 4 (08:35):
Leader, And will that leader be more or.
Speaker 3 (08:38):
Less amenable to the United States. I think, given what
we've seen over the last twenty four hours, they will
be much more likely to be far more hardline and
even less tolerant of the United States. So I just
think we're in for a tough time that I think
the easiest way pointing it. I think we're twenty hours
(08:59):
in and I think we're just at the beginning of
what's going to be a nasty, wider regional war that's
going to have very much global consequences, including I might
add for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Well, what consequences do you see there?
Speaker 3 (09:12):
Well, you just look at where Iran is geopolitically. It
sits there on the Strait Off Moves alone. That's responsible
for twenty percent of the world's oil flows through that
narrow strait, that narrow corridor between the Gulf, the Arab
Gulf States and Iran. Seventy five percent of that oil
goes to Asia, in other words, to US. New Zealand
(09:33):
imports its oil now in refined form from big refineries
in Japan and Singapore, Indonesia, and that oil largely is
coming out of the Gulf States, coming out of the
Middle East. There are already ships that are avoiding the
straight of Hall Moves. Now. Iran has not introduced a
formal blockade of that strait yet. That may still happen,
(09:55):
but even if it doesn't, you're going to see ships
avoid that area, and shipping companies already are announcing that.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
To one degree or another because of this year of risk.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
I mean, would you want to navigate through that narrow
waterway while there are missiles and drones overflying the water.
Probably not. You just look at also aviation. Dubai Airport
is shut down effectively at the moment, many many New
Zealanders will fly through Dubai Airport on their way to
other parts of the Middle East and of course to Europe.
(10:29):
I was transitting through Dubai Airport a couple of weeks ago,
many many New Zealanders do. So you know, there are
just so many second order ramifications. But oil prices could
be the big one. We'll seek at an indication of
that this week.
Speaker 4 (10:44):
And there already are slightly elevated.
Speaker 3 (10:46):
They are over the seventy US dollar barrel mark. When
you couple that with a week in New Zealand dollar
is quite a powerful combination, and then it could really
see prices of the pump head northwards pretty soon.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Do you think the US has a credible endgame?
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Look, I think all all plans are great until you get.
Speaker 4 (11:06):
Punched in the face.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
I think it was the quote from Mike Tyson, and
you know it always sounds good on paper. George W.
Bush thought regime change sounded like a great idea in
Iraq in two thousand and three. And look, they've had
some success here with the death of the Supreme Leader
Arley Kamina, and Donald Trump will be drunken on power.
(11:27):
I think at this point he will see this, while
this is a big win, We've got the head of
the snake. But George Bush had that mission accomplished banner
back in Iraq in two thousand and three, in May
two thousand and three. What came after that was just
chaos and destruction in a brutal civil war. So my
question is what's going to come after this death of
(11:47):
the Supreme leader of Iran. It's unlikely to be suddenly,
you know, peace and harmony and goodwill. It's going to
be a bloody all our conflict.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
I think domestically for the president, you know, an action
like this can in the short term sort of bring
the rallying cry of patriotism.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
But what are.
Speaker 2 (12:07):
The risks for him domestically Donald Trump.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
Well, the risks is that this goes very very badly
and very very quickly. It turns into an absolute mess
in the Middle East. And ironically, Donald Trump's issued a
national security strategy in December, echoing previous presidents like Barack Obama,
saying that he didn't want to be part of the
Middle East, that the US was turning its attention to
(12:34):
the Indo Pacific, in that the Middle East was now
going to become a more peaceful region. That's just simply
not happening now as of today, things are much much worse.
But it's just it's quite incredible to watch what's what's
going on? And you have to think about some of
the ironies here about Donald Trump being a chairman of
(12:54):
the Board of Peace and being the recipient of the
Fief of Peace Prize that he was awarded both Giovanni
and Fantino back in December. And he's just started now
probably the biggest war that the US has been involved
in since probably at least two thousand and three, the
Iraq War. But we've talked about many momentous events to
(13:15):
him on your show over the past year or so.
I remember a year ago talking to you when Donald
Trump was in the White House and upbraiding Volodi Meslenski.
There have been so many monumental events with what we've
seen with the Middle East, with the war in Gaza,
the Pager attacks on his Billa, the attacks from the
(13:37):
Huthis and Yemen. The list could go on. There was
Israel's invasion of Lebanon. But I think this is the
twenty eighth of February yesterday. This will just be well,
this will go and I think the history books probably
is the biggest single day since at least October the seventh,
twenty twenty three, and possibly even bigger than that. I
(13:58):
just think this has just got such a regional and
global significance. This is a catastrophe really in the Middle East,
and Donald Trump will now have to own it. You know,
he started it. He's going to have to fix things up.
So you know that the consequences and the ramplifications are
just enormous.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
Here.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Okay, Lucky last questions, what's the best case scenario that
happens as a result of this.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
The best case scenario is that callerheads prevail and that
all sides go back to the negotiating table, perhaps with
Oman the golf state of Oman is a broker once again,
and that all sides realize that it's not in their
interest to continue this conflict further and they need to
stop a bad situation from getting even worse. I think
that's the situation New Zeala needs to be speaking out for,
(14:44):
because that's the only hope really of salvaging anything here.
The worst cases of this just files into an all
out conflict, a civil war in Iran, potentially a wider
regional war involving many many other countries around the Middle
East and around the world. I think, unfortunately, we're probably
more likely to go down there latter road than the former,
(15:06):
But we have to think keeps speaking out in favor
of diplomacying in favor of dialogue de escalation might seem
pretty bleak right now, but I don't think there's any
point in carrying water for Donald Trump. New Zealand came
out with quite a weak statement today, the joint statement
from Christopher Luxeen and Winston Tis.
Speaker 4 (15:24):
It implicitly condoned the US and as Raeli strikes. I
think it was the wrong strategy to take. Other leaders, like.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
The Spanish prime minters to have been much.
Speaker 4 (15:32):
Clearer and condemning.
Speaker 3 (15:35):
The US attacks. And I think we need to think
about the likes of Oman that have been broken in
these piece talks. They probably knew that they were being
deceived and that Donald Trump and it was just going
to do what he liked, and that's what's happened. But
we should be standing up for the likes of O'man
and these golf states. These are our friends in the region.
New Zealand's got good relations, good trading relations Donald so
(15:56):
Christopher Luxen was up in the UAE last year signing
a trade agreement. We should be thinking also about these
golf tacks, and we should be thinking about New Zealand's
own security and the way that we make our living
in the world, and we make it through peace and prosperity,
and a regional war in the Middle East is not
a New Zealand's interest and it's not in the global interest.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
Well, hey, Jeffrey, I really appreciate your time this afternoon.
It's probably not the first time entered an interview with
you with saying fingers crossed, but I really appreciate your time.
Thanks very much.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talk ZB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Fudd Around And Find Out
UConn basketball star Azzi Fudd brings her championship swag to iHeart Women’s Sports with Fudd Around and Find Out, a weekly podcast that takes fans along for the ride as Azzi spends her final year of college trying to reclaim the National Championship and prepare to be a first round WNBA draft pick. Ever wonder what it’s like to be a world-class athlete in the public spotlight while still managing schoolwork, friendships and family time? It’s time to Fudd Around and Find Out!