April 5, 2026 • 48 mins
It's election year again in New Zealand, and it's a process that we're all familiar with.
But few are more familiar than Former PM Helen Clark and Former National MP Maurice Williamson, who joined Tim Beverige to look at what we can expect from election year.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talk SEDB.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Or to your contributions on eight hundred and eighty ten eighty.
But right now, welcome to the Weekend Collective. It is
eight minutes past three, and we'll get straight into it,
shall we, with Politics Central, And because look, we're past
the Walmut phase now, aren't we. Don't you get that feeling?
It felt like we might have passed that a while ago,
(00:35):
moving into the part of the political cycle where things
started to get a bit more energized, or things start
to get real. You might say, we've had the government reshuffle,
and when you look at the calendar, we're now just
a couple of days under six months out from the election.
Over six months out from the election, which, let's be honest,
it'll be here before we know it. And you get
a sense that some parties haven't really been out of
(00:57):
campaign mode at all in a way. In fact, you
could argue the tone shift at the moment Winston Peters
was no longer Deputy Prime Minister. You can see it now,
the positioning messaging parties building momentum, perhaps with the exception
of Labor, I'm still waiting for some policy there. I think,
aren't we anyway? For our panel today it's this isn't
something that they have watched from the sidelines, it's something
(01:19):
that they have lived and breathe and joining me now
we have former Prime Minister Helen Clark and the former
National MP for Pakar Ranger, Morris Williamson, and with me. Now,
good afternoon, So let's get look, we're six months out,
just a broad take on things as we as we
(01:40):
head towards it. How open is things or are you
are you seeing patterns which are leading in a particular direction.
We'll start with you, Helen.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
So the opinion polling has the polls pretty finely balanced
between a National Party plus Partners government and a Labor
Party plus Partners government. Labor's polling better than National, but
as we know, at the end of the day you
have to assemble a coalition and get a majority of
(02:10):
votes in Parliament. Now, the great political ponju of mister
Peters has showed a capacity to hop either side of
the line. Who knows whether that still continues to be
the case, but I think if I were in government,
I'd be starting to get quite worried. As you say,
six months out they've got one last big shot, which
(02:32):
is the budget. But here we are in the middle
of a war offshore, which is impacting on supply lines
and the cost of fuel. So it's not going to
be an easy budget. So that's why talk will turn
to what about the leader? Because the buckstops.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Of the leader.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
And if things aren't going so well and you start
to get more of these polls and the high twenty percent,
there will be a lot of nervousness.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Just before we go to Marris, wasn't it you that
said bug of the polsters?
Speaker 3 (03:08):
Was that you Helen nod? Damn?
Speaker 2 (03:12):
It was going off the top of my head and
I suddenly thought, hang on a minute, Okay, that's right.
It was how embarrassing for me, Marris? What do you
what's the tea leaves? What are the tea leaves showing
for you? And do you think there's a bit more
shuffling of those leaves to go? Look?
Speaker 4 (03:30):
I really think we have to look at this as something.
Prior to the Iran attack and post up until then,
Labor were definitely polling ahead of national I have been
terribly critical that I didn't know even what Nationals stood for.
I don't think lux and ever stamped his mark on
the leadership. If you go back to previous leaders including Helen,
(03:52):
you always knew where they stood. They had phenomenal chiefs
of staff in every case, Helen's one was amazing, and
you just knew where they stood and where things were going.
And yes, they lost after three terms, but that's pretty
much going to happen to any political party. Now that
you've got what's happening in terms of a complete turmoil
in the world, I think there's going to be a
(04:12):
totally different paradigm shift about where we go from here.
If the war's over very quickly, very small impact, fuel
prices back to pretty much normal, then we will go
back to where we were polling. I believe it's got
a long way to go with a lot of mess,
and I think that's a new world that voters will
have to be making an assessment under as we go
(04:33):
forward to November. And I don't know how to predict that.
I don't know how long this trump. I don't think
knows how long it will last. Be changes within the hour.
You know, some days it's going to be by ten
o'clock that day, and then it's going to be five
days from that, then it's not going to be and
then it was that afternoon. So we don't know where
this will go. But I think the impacts on the
(04:55):
world economy, on will Pray, logistics and shipping could be
so incredibly impactful that I think over and things really
come down to who do they his best to sort
of manage the economy and stabilize things and try to
(05:16):
get us through that, rather than a normal election campaign
of who's offering what and who's best at it.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Actually, I just get this just at the end there, Marris,
just let you know you're just breaking up a little bit.
So if there's a preferred EA for your phone, just
to work your magic. Actually, Helena on that, I was
going to save this till the end of our chat
because you know, the last time you and I spoke,
you were making your thoughts about the Iran War very
(05:43):
clear as to how misguided it was, and I don't
think you'd be inclined to say I told you so,
but gosh, it's it's really I mean, I don't know
if you even would have predicted how bad it was
going to get what's what's what's your reflections on this?
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Now?
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Well, as we know from even recent history, let alone
having to go back decades and scenes, stepping into a
quagmire in the Middle East is pretty pretty risky, and
I would say rash and extremely dangerous. And we're seeing
this play out. Two or three weeks ago. The former
(06:20):
Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln was saying, look, you know,
any day Trump could declare victory and just leave, you know,
so that's a come what I came to do. I'm
out of here, and things would have, you know, come
back to normal supply chains reasonably quickly. But he missed
that opportunity, and now he's in donkey deep, as they say,
(06:42):
and the search goes on from missing airmen. There's rumors
that the vast amounts more troops heading to the Gulf.
In the meantime, You've got those more than two thousand
ships sitting in the gulf, about three hundred and ten
of them oil and gas tankers. How many would fertilizer,
which is essential, you know for the world agriculture. You
(07:03):
just don't know whether this is going to escalate very,
very sharply or not. Now if the US and Israel
begin to bomb power stations, power plants, Bader salvation all
hell will break those because are you're taking away the
(07:24):
sustenance of life. The Iranians have threatened retaliation against similar
type facilities in the golf and the region itself, so
this could get really horrible. It just needs to end.
It needs to end because the US, on the one hand,
site that they've hit, you know, all the military targets
(07:47):
come to get. But after that, what are you hitting.
You're hitting civilian infrastructure, You're killing more people. So this
is highly misguided and it can't close soon enough for
all of us.
Speaker 4 (07:59):
One thing I slightly disagree with Helen on I think
if even if Trump started to pack up stakes and
leave right now, I don't think it'll come back to
normal that quickly. I think that will take quite some
time to come back to normality. Prices will take some
time to come back. Price the petrol pump will take
eons to come back if they ever do so, there
(08:20):
will always be that hangover, but it won't be as bad.
But if it turns into an absolute free for all,
I have no idea what you would be looking at
as a political environment November to be standing in an election.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Well that's the next question really because I've had discussions
with panelists on this, and one who's saying the voters
are really smart, and then the discussion was, well, will
the vote, will the voters take out what's happening in
Iran and the repercussions. Will they take it out on
the government? Which is not necessarily logical? But is that
how it works? Maris?
Speaker 4 (08:52):
I don't think so. I think what would happen is
that they already knew that cost of living hadn't come back,
as the government when it was standing sealed to bring
it back. They already knew that they weren't going to
rain in the labor wasting money like a drunken and
we're going to reign at back. We're going to take
a sledgehammer of the debt mountain. But I think all
(09:12):
of the off green and we start with a new
clean slate. If indeed it's all to do with the
repercussions of the war. I think my view is the
election could easily come down to public think our best
manage the economy, post of living and so on, while
there's such uncertainty out there in the world.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Yeah, Helen, what do you think in terms of how
it sets back to an incumbent government in New Zealand
and an election time.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
So firstly, I think I agree with Morris that if
the war ended tomorrow, thinks aren't going to just suddenly
snap back into place oil and fertilizer, et cetera supply
wise it would take weeks, if not months, So there's
a bit of agony to play out there. But I
think what the public will be looking for is how
is the government managing the crisis. And here's where you
(10:03):
come to the leadershi a vacuum. Because we have a
PM who describes himself as a CEO. This leaves a
leadership vacuum. His ministers beneath him can't really fill it,
so it tends to be filled by Winston Peters, who's
erratic at the best of times. Secondly, the policies weren't
exactly working before this crisis. That the economy today is
(10:26):
smaller than it was before the election. The cost of
living was hurting people before this crisis, So I think
that when people come to judge who's best in the crisis,
the government's not necessarily that well positioned at a leadership
level or policy track level to take any advantage of that.
Speaker 4 (10:47):
Marius I think had come down to who's the least worst,
because we've got a bit of well, no, we've got
a bit of a history of what the previous did.
When COVID had put us all in the state we were,
they threw thousands of leaders of liquidity into the market.
Interest rates dropped to a quarter of one percent, house
prizes went through the route, and we're still paying a
(11:08):
massive amount for all of that over spending in the
accumulated debt. But people forget quite quickly in politics, and
instead of them saying well I remember back, they really
looked at their weekly income, what it's costing them to
get groceries and so on. I'm amazed, always being amazed,
always have been, at how short term memories are. And
(11:30):
I don't think that Luxeon's been a great leader by
a long shot. I don't think if that was the case,
they wouldn't be down in the high twenties. They'd be
polling in the low forties. So I think it'll be
who's best or sorry, who's the least worst at managing
the crisis?
Speaker 2 (11:45):
In my view, Oh wonderful choice, isn't it. Hey, Look,
we're just going to take a quick break We're with
Helen Clark, former Prime Minister, and Marris Williamson, former government minister,
as well as the MP for Parker Anger and we're
going to be back and just to take it and
digging into each different party and you know what are
they going to be looking to change or keep going
(12:05):
with as we head towards the election. This is News Talks,
but you can text your feedback anytime on nine two
nine two. What we're going to stick around with Helen
and Morris for the time being. It is twenty one
past three News Talks.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
BA.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Yes, welcome back to the Weekend Collective. We've got a
special panel today with former Prime Minister Helen Clark and
former Minister for National Morris Williamson, just taking up getting
our bearings because it's six months to the election on
this Easter weekend. And look, first next part of the
equation is just looking at National's reshuffle, which is probably
(15:25):
one of the first sort of moves that was looking
at maybe redefining a few things just before we go
to your opinion guys, not that I feel mine's worth
nearly as much, but I hadn't really cared about, you know,
polls and the Prime minister being chased through an airline
terminal as if he had been exposed for something much
worse than just a low poll result. But I thought
(15:46):
that the sidelining, no, not sidelining, but there's a slight
adjustment with Chris Bishop made me think that, I don't know,
maybe that makes luckx and look attle bit weak. What's
this all about? I'll ask Morris first, what was your
take on the reshuffle? Hang on a minute, what Morris?
I need to talk to you again and hold it.
I'll just quickly get you back on there we go.
(16:07):
Sorry marthe that's my toot.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
So okay. I was really pleased with what happened in
the reshuff well, because Chris Bishop was causing the National
Party huge damage in Auckland. And if you know the
number of votes at the last election, Auckland was where
National became government. They got a forty five percent of
the party vote across the twenty two electorates that cover
Auckland and only a thirty five percent over the remaining
(16:30):
forty four seats for the rest of the country. So
they would have phenomenally much better party vote in Auckland,
and right now they're not seeing that. And One of
the major reasons was Bishop has con on a regular
basis going out saying he wants to drive house prices down.
Luxeon's been a little bit more I think reasonable and
said he wants wages to grow faster than house prices,
(16:52):
so you'll get affordability that way. But what you can't
have is one of your major ministers going out and
saying something completely opposite. Helen would never have stood for
one of her ministers having a view the other direction
to where she was going. And I don't know why
Latson didn't stand up announce to say I'm the Prime minister.
What I say it goes, and if the Bishop's got
different views, there's no room for him in my cabinet.
(17:12):
But he didn't. And so I was going to public
meetings here with all the intensification, and they were mainly
in the blue ribbon seats where they get their big bits.
Why Ward here covers Botany and Pakaranga, and both of
those are the high sixty percent party votes for National
and there was just anger beyond belief at what mister
Bishop kept arguing for compared to what I think, And
(17:34):
so I think having sidelined him in some of that,
and he already had done the backtrack on his two
million dwellings back to the one point four, which I
think is an ineminently sensible number because you can start
doing the intensification round alcohol. So I think it was
a really good change, and I think putting Simon Brown
to run the campaign was a good move as well.
I don't know whether it'll change many votes at this point,
(17:55):
but over time I think it will.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Okay, Okay, what, Helen, what do you reckon?
Speaker 4 (18:01):
So?
Speaker 3 (18:01):
I think it exposes a couple of things. One of
them is that's what Morris just said. That clearly christ
Bership's drive for intensification in the special character areas in
Leafy suburbs went down like a lead balloon in Auckland.
Set me round my way up.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Did it go down badly with you, Helen? What did
you think you beat?
Speaker 5 (18:24):
Takes? Well?
Speaker 3 (18:24):
Yeah, very very concerned because the plan he wanted for
my area would have seen anyone able to buy a
villa in a special Character area and put a fifteen
story building next year. Now you know, for all the
homeowners have invested in their properties in accordance with the
special area requirements. It's a bolt from the blue and
(18:46):
very unpleasant. But if your attitude is, as Morris said,
to drive down house prices, well, a lot of people
bought at previous peaks and that immediately puts them into
negative equity, which is a very vulnerable position to be in.
And that would apply not only to people on lower
incomes if they could have afforded any kind of home
(19:07):
at all for home ownership, but certainly right into the
middle income earners as well. So that was problematic. But
I think, yes, he was clearly a pretended to the throne.
But I learned a lesson early on when I became
the leader of the Labor Party, which I was for
fifteen years, and I faced a lot of internal issues,
(19:28):
particularly the first three years. I learned you had to
keep your friends close and your opponent's even closer internally,
and so you know, leaving Chris Bishop in a position
where he's in effect sulking on the sidelines won't be
good for harmony either. I think also Chris Bishop is
(19:48):
seen by most people as more middle of the road.
He's not in the quote conservative facts of the National Party.
He's one of those people who probably could have jumped
either way really depending on where he saw the opportunity.
So yes, as a number are things to consider around
that reshuffle, and marginalizing a pretender to the throne was one,
(20:11):
but certainly the Auckland factor was important.
Speaker 4 (20:14):
Sim if I can inflict you a couple of numbers
just for the Auckland intensification thing. When the Unitary Plan
was brought into place in twenty sixteen, it made allowance
and the Council has had to do it every year since.
Make thirty thousand properties available every year for thirty years.
That's what the Unitary Plan required. So thirty times thirty
(20:34):
gives you nine hundred thousand properties. In the ten years
since the Unitary Plan has been in we've been issuing Auckland.
Council has been issuing an average per annum of fifteen
thousand dwelling consents, in other words, only half of what's
been available every year. And it cumulates that the fifteen
(20:54):
thousand you don't use this year moves on to add
to the thirty thousand next year and then onto the
forty five thousand. So the idea that we were so
short of dwelling a capablebility in New Zealand in Auckland
was wrong because the numbers show there is a huge
gap between what was being made available and the capacity
(21:14):
being made developable compared to what was being used.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
And so I think Morris is absolutely right on this
because Auckland Council has actually done a damn good job
with its term planned. You know, the provision was there,
and as Morris says, even what was there, it wasn't
being taken up. I mean, I have a concern and
I saw it a bit in the previous government as well.
Central government is intruding far too much on local government's affairs.
(21:40):
They need to back off. We elect our local politicians
that are accountable through a democratic process, through planning processes
and so on. I just think central government should get
out of their lives and let them do their job.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Well, Wayne Brown'll be cheering you right now, waydy, Helen, I.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
Hope what's the old line render under Caesar those which
are Caesars.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
Yes, indeed, act it's funny. How are you saying, Helen?
You were saying that Chris Bishop so slightly, you know,
maybe a little bit more to the left of you know,
some of his colleagues, et cetera. It's funny. Of the
texts I get here just on the comments on this
panel today says why have you got a couple of
lefties on here? Morris quite identifies that way, does he.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
I'm going to have to get psychiatric help. That one
that was as that was a vicious blow. That was.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Ah, look, you know you can't win them all. Hey, now,
look let's go to labor. Chris Hopkins. Is he the
right person Helen to take them to the selection? And
if so, why and if not, why not? I guess.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Well he is.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Look, he was a young staffer around the Beehive when
I was PM, and I remember when we had a
spot coming up for a new MP with Paul Swain
retiring in the Upper Hut Valley area, we said, why
not Chris Hipkins? He was the obvious person and I
personally think he's been a highly capable minister. I think
(23:07):
he did well in his first year as Prime Minister
before the last election. I have no reservations about Chris
Hopkins and he certainly has my strong support.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
If he wasn't, there is there anyone who's sort of
in the wings, just an obvious takeover, because I can't.
Speaker 6 (23:25):
Think anyone no, Look, look, there's always you know a
pool of people who could do the job, and I'm
not going to speculate on them because I don't.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
You give us something for these Helen Clark.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
I don't support a change, but look, look when I
went there was always going to be others who could
step up for that job. You know, Currently the government goes,
there's always going to be someone who can step up.
Some will step up faster than others, better than others.
Sometimes it's trial and error for a while, but there's
always there's always someone.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
What about What do you reckon, Marris, Because at the
moment it seems that so far Chris Hopkins is just
like sort of standing there on the sidelines and they're
doing quite well without them having to do very much.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
Well, that's a very good political tactic. Actually, why buy
into a fight when you're actually going well ahead of
I mean to be the seven or eight points ahead
in every one of them. I'm looking at the poll
of polls right now on my screen, and they're polling
way better. And I don't think they should have been.
After their last term in government. I thought they should
have taken such a ding they wouldn't be back in contention,
(24:32):
But they are they're ahead and they're doing well. I
think that changing the leader would be foolish when they're
where they are. I don't think they will. I think
there's just two things that they've got a bit of
a problem with. First of all, you don't get to
be government on your own. You've got to have other parties.
And whereas the Green seem to be way more a
social justice and worried about rather than the party, they're
(24:54):
still polling it. What is it here? Eleven eleven and
a half average, So that's reasonable contribution. But where does
the rest come from? And if it's from Tea Party Maori,
there's a huge chunk of ordinary voters out there that go,
these guys are such a worry, they're all over the
paddock on all sorts of stuff. So you know, elections
aren't for individual political parties. Got to get that over
(25:15):
to people over It's nothing to do with the individuals.
It's the cumulative of the coalitions who finally get to
make the government. And whereas I think National is at
least in with two partners that can work with and
they can work with again, I Thinkpkins, I think Hipkins
will be the leader. I think he's done a good
job actually so far, but I just don't know what
(25:37):
they're going to do about getting a reasonable coalition group together.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Well, that leads us to our friend Winston, and we'll
go with you, Helen on this first, because I think
my just sort of punter's view of it is that
I thought he had specifically ruled out ever going into
government with Labor as long as Chris Hipkins was the head.
And as I think three of us would agree, I
don't think Chris Hippkins is going anywhere. What's your understanding
(26:02):
of Winston and where the wins might blow him?
Speaker 3 (26:07):
Well, I think that Winston is probably positioning to be
a bit more flexible. Put yourself, for example, in his shoes.
If he goes through the election and the national poll
parties polling in the mid high twenties and Labors up
on the mid thirties, plus, what does he do when
(26:30):
we were in a similar situation back in nineteen ninety six,
we polled at twenty eight and that's we're up what
thirty three thirty six? Whatever? He went with them. I mean,
we were just too low and we knew it really,
So I think he'll keep a bit more flexibility in
his position than some of the statements that we've seen.
(26:53):
Part of his trick in staying in that balance of
power position has always been to keep people guessing about
which way he'll go. And if he becomes too locked
in with the current arrangement when it's not doing so well,
that can hurt him too. So I just think we'll
(27:14):
see a bit more movement around his positioning and rhetoric.
Speaker 4 (27:17):
What do you reckon, Marris Well, I think if you
think about it after an election's over, that's when the
real negotiations start. What you don't want to have given
all your hand away and said, here's my cards, you
have a look at them, and you know what I've
got before the day because he has to try and
get the most he can out of both sides, and
got to remember ninety six in the back and forwards
(27:38):
and the backwards and forward to track to where we
finally got to an aurs around waiting for the big announcement.
But I think in the end what he will now is,
and it's a deliberate thing that he should be doing,
I guess, is distinguishing himself from the government because we
don't get to vote our government for the parts, and
(27:59):
so he's got six months now to distinguish himself separately
in terms of the things that if he was back again,
he would not necessarily back a bottom line, but fight
for and demand that we made some of those changes.
I'll make your prediction now that it's the very big
middle tower at a small tower on either side called
(28:21):
New Zealand First and Act. I think the towers will
come more and more the two side. Ones will come
up a bit in the middle one will come down
a bit, but you're still going to have a very
very close outcome on the day.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Can I just quickly, let's not spend too long on this.
But I've had quite a few people who are fans
of New Zealand First who say that Winston will be
prime minister because they all of the balance of power.
I think that would be absurd. Where are you guys,
quickly on that? Helen.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
I don't think that will happen realistically. I don't think
either of the two major parties are going to conceive that.
Of course that was Winston's open gambler. Then he doesn't
get it. He's in a position to bargain for, you know,
some something large anyway. But no, I don't see that
(29:15):
as an outcome of the election.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
Marris Can I just add one little quick clippy. He's
foreign minister, I really do. I've got quite good connections
in with a lot of diplomats overseas and the seasons
over and over again. You guys must be very proud
of your current foreign minister, so I want to give
him some room. That's I think he's well represented New
(29:40):
Zealand well on the international stage. And however that's not
what comes of a leader going into a coalition looks.
Speaker 2 (29:48):
And yeah, actually it's like he's two different people in
a way, isn't it. There's Winston the foreign minister, there's
Winston the retail electioneering politician. They're sort of two different people,
aren't they.
Speaker 4 (30:03):
Well they almost have to be, though, because in one
you're trying to get some really good outcomes for the
nation and the other you're trying to get votes for
what Even he has to have, I think the biggest
problem god is he can't go with Maori Party in
any shape or form, and so if there was a
(30:24):
Labor plus New Zealand first he may, but if it
involved some of the other party, I think I don't
believe so.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Yeah, and Helen, that does make the mass a bit
difficult for labor, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
Well, the thing is Mores said, if you have labor
plus first, may well be close to being all over
barber shouting. You may supply from someone else. But I
think a concern I have is that Winston is campaigning
on a megastyle platform.
Speaker 4 (30:54):
Right.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
You see a lot of the overtones of US politics
coming into his positioning, and in a way that is
lapping over into how he does the job as as
Foreign minister. There's no doubt under the current government there
have been a lot more sidling back up to the US,
which given the nature of the US administration now, is
(31:15):
pretty pretty extraordinary. So I'm worried that the sort of
domestic policy limicurey that he's doing of the Make America
Great movement is lapping into the foreign policy positioning as well. Look,
he was my foreign minister and did a perfectly professional job,
so I have no beef about that. But I also
have a very strong view that New Zealand needs to
(31:37):
throw its own boat and not be beholden to the
foreign policy positions of others. And I think we're being
dragged into stuff that we shouldn't be near.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Right, thanks for that. We need to take quick break.
We're with Morris Williamson and Helen Clark. This is our
panel to looking forward to the next six months as
we head toward the election and getting Morris and Helen's
reckons on things. We'll be back in just a moment
and we're very grateful for their time. Of course. It
is twenty minutes to four o'clock back in Attack.
Speaker 7 (32:24):
US US five.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Yes, and welcome back. This is a special panel we're
having today with Morrison, Morris Williamson and Helen Clark. And look,
we've been talking a lot about Winston and he does
seem to have a way of squeezing himself into many
political conversations, which means it's kind a bit quiet on
the act front. Helen. And we've seen that Brook van
Velden's stepping away. What do you I mean if you
(35:32):
were advising David Seymour, Helen, Let's pretend.
Speaker 4 (35:40):
But I mean at that meeting, but I mean it.
Speaker 2 (35:45):
Does they are yet to build up a head of
steam Winston to me, and I guess it's playing into
it with the Iran thing and he's Foreign Minister, and
Shane's involved with the Energy and it's all got a
bit quiet for ACT. Brook's leaving. Now, how do they
grab some of the spotlight?
Speaker 3 (36:04):
Yeah, so this is I mean Winston's you know, he's
an old dog in politics and he knew that when
they were going to share that definitely prime minister's job.
He had to take the first eighteen months, so he
was free to campaign for the next eighteen in a sense,
David Seemoor an ACT campaign for the first eighteen months,
but everyone's forgotten about that, and now you've got eighteen
(36:24):
months where you know there's definitely prime minister. You have
to at least look like you're a job, you know,
like a populous agitator up there. So I think that's
been a limitation now Brooke Vandervelt, I mean clearly, you know,
she's responsible for a range of policies which I don't
(36:45):
like at all. But putting that aside, I would have
thought objectively, she was an attractive, younger human politician, you know,
a good look in that sense, and she beat an
incumbent National Member of Parliament who was a fundamentalist Christian
and obviously just too conservative for for the electorate. So
(37:06):
the issue will be what will happen now, I don't
know whether National has already chosen a candidate, what what
kind of positioning was, Yeah, and so you know who
will act put up? Will it be anyone as attractive
for voters there as Brook van de Belden will. Is
there any chance of a you know, sort of three
(37:27):
ways split where they carve up each other's vote and
someone comes through the middle. That tends not to happen
when that runs a strong candidate in an electorate, they
need to keep a foothold of the political system. So no,
it's not a welcome development for the Brook was going.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
So I didn't detect any advice in there. Helen.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
I think it's hard because he's sort of locked into
the steputy prime minister role and the campaign you know,
really only comes what about six eight weeks before the election,
and that's quite hard to rev things up against. So
I think I'd be saying to the strategists, Look, we've
got to be more visible. We've disappeared a bit from
public view. What do I need to do well?
Speaker 2 (38:13):
Because I did get the feeling that from a political
point of view, he was a bit of a political
heartbreak from that Brooks leaving and of course they had
that momentum Morris of the having that second electorate which
she had won as well. What's your take on where
what they can do and how it's looking for them.
Speaker 4 (38:30):
One of the drums that I've beaten over the years
and not had any one really listened to was the
fact that electorates don't really matter. They really don't. How
many seats you get in Parliament is determined by only
one thing, and that's your party vote. And if you
get a specific party vote, that entitles you to a
certain number of MPs, and every one of the seats
you win gets deducted from that entitlement. And so every
(38:54):
time I won pack Aranger, I used to say to
people that doesn't give national another seat, I get deducted
from their entitlement. So if you're down on the five
percent threshold, yes you want to get an a seat,
which I think EPSOM will be for David Seamore until
he decides to go, But after that, I don't think
seats really they matter to the individual because it's a
(39:15):
lot more prestigious that you're the MP for something rather
than a list MP. But in the end, the party
vote is the only vote. I used to say, and
we had election campaigns where I used to say to
the public here at meetings, if you want to split
your vote, please don't vote for me. Just make sure
you give my party your vote, because that's all that matters.
Speaker 2 (39:33):
It's amazing how often you have to explain that to people.
I mean you you both must have had conversations with
people constantly, and people say, I'm giving my I'm splitting
my vote, I'm doing this. It's like I said, who
do you want is government? And they were mentioned a
different party. I'm like, you've got to You've got it wrong.
Speaker 4 (39:48):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
I don't know what to say.
Speaker 3 (39:50):
But has always been a bit hard to understand that
there's one one single fact about it. Morris and I
would agree that you need to understand, and that is
it's the party vote to how many seats the party
has in parliament? That full stop.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
What are the Greens up to? I can't sort of
it doesn't.
Speaker 4 (40:14):
It doesn't if you win more seats than you were
entitled to from your party.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
Oh yes, yes, yes, And that's a little bit of
first pass place. Now just quickly, the Greens Helen Well.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
I think they're missing James Shaw got a tremendous amount
of time for James. I think he did a good
job as a minister, principal guy, but pragmatic, you know,
had a background in sort of analysis and investment banking
and so on. So they miss him now. They've also,
you had had one of the co leaders was off sick,
(40:47):
which is obviously very sad for her. She's back at
full urse, but was out for a while. We've had
some you know, the unfortunate sort of young man who
came into Parliament which became a very difficult thing to
manage and he eventually went. So it's been it's been messy,
very very messy. I think if I was giving them advice,
(41:08):
I'd say just go hard on what people expect Greens
to go hard on. There's plenty of communities around the
country upset about fast Track and what might go ahead
in their backyard, whether it's mining in the central Targo
High Country or whatever. You know, go hard on that.
Some of the decisions the government's been making as it
(41:29):
wound back the previous governments work on sustainable energy, you
could go after that. I mean, nothing's more crazy than
a terminal for imported LNG now that we see how
precarious importing that sort of fuelers. So if I were them,
I'd go back to basics, go back to being a
(41:50):
Green Party rather than always on everything, and focus on
what your core is.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
We'll get Morris's take on this in just a moment.
I do need to take a break. Thanks Helen. We'll
be back with Maurice Williamson and Helen Clark and just
to take it's nine and a half minutes to four
fe yes and with only about three minutes Leftcoft time
(45:15):
has rushed by chatting with former Prime Minister Helen Clark
and former Cabinet Minister for National Marris Williamson. Morris, your
take on will better include to party Murray, the small
amount of time we've got left and the Greens, what
do you reckon? What's the way forward for them?
Speaker 4 (45:32):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Is Marris there or there we go?
Speaker 4 (45:34):
Sorry? First of all, I don't think the Greens will
call an emergency meeting tonight to say Morris Williamson's given
us and we need to take it. So I'm not
hopeful of it. But I sit in there with people
like Jeanette fitz Simon's and Rod Donald and I had
enormous respect for them. I did with them on many things,
but I had enormous respect for the principles they held,
(45:55):
what they postulated in terms of wanted to go. And
I can tell you that in the we do there
were a number of people that were what you would
call on the nash of the Ledger were worried about
the planet, they were worried about climate change, they were
worried about the environment. A doctor's white where and would
have been in that voter but not. But right, the
(46:17):
Greens have oden what I think is some of the
sensible environment and conservation portfolio things where they could have
an attraction across abroad and have been out for the
defund the police stuff and the whole range of and
I just think all that is just what they've painted
themselves into a very dangerous corner of being limited politics
(46:38):
and side and.
Speaker 2 (46:39):
Lucky last to helen your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (46:43):
Well, as I said, I think the Greens get back
to core business, they'll probably do better. And I too recall,
as Morris does, when there were Blue Greens in the
National Party, guys Sam and kind of people, and they
did a good job Simon Upton, of course terrific and
still doing a great job as Parliamentary Commissioner for Environment.
So it'd be nice to see some of those elements
(47:04):
resurfer us again in the National Party and try and
get some more common cause on you know how important
the quality environment and looking after a natural heritage actually
is Mari party. I mean it's become a bit of
a family business, hasn't it around the tea. So that
and obviously a lot of internal struggles. I mean, party
(47:28):
vote is not what they go after. They go after
the electric vote, but the trouble I've been in I
think will make it difficult for them to hold what
they've got.
Speaker 2 (47:37):
Well, look, I really just wanted to say a massive
thank you to you both for joining me this afternoon
to give your thoughts on all this, and maybe we
can sort of request your company again sometime as we
head towards the election. Helen and Morris, thank you so
much for your time.
Speaker 4 (47:53):
Thanks Tom, Thanks thanks all by Morris.
Speaker 2 (47:56):
Bye, there we go. And that's one of my texters says,
you know a couple of lefties. Anyway, Hey, thank you
so so we really do appreciate that, and I thought
there was a fantastic discussion. You can listen to it
online if you want, and we'll be back with the
Health Hub Allison Gofton as next.
Speaker 1 (48:28):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
talks be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talk SEDB.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Or to your contributions on eight hundred and eighty ten eighty.
But right now, welcome to the Weekend Collective. It is
eight minutes past three, and we'll get straight into it,
shall we, with Politics Central, And because look, we're past
the Walmut phase now, aren't we. Don't you get that feeling?
It felt like we might have passed that a while ago,
(00:35):
moving into the part of the political cycle where things
started to get a bit more energized, or things start
to get real. You might say, we've had the government reshuffle,
and when you look at the calendar, we're now just
a couple of days under six months out from the election.
Over six months out from the election, which, let's be honest,
it'll be here before we know it. And you get
a sense that some parties haven't really been out of
(00:57):
campaign mode at all in a way. In fact, you
could argue the tone shift at the moment Winston Peters
was no longer Deputy Prime Minister. You can see it now,
the positioning messaging parties building momentum, perhaps with the exception
of Labor, I'm still waiting for some policy there. I think,
aren't we anyway? For our panel today it's this isn't
something that they have watched from the sidelines, it's something
(01:19):
that they have lived and breathe and joining me now
we have former Prime Minister Helen Clark and the former
National MP for Pakar Ranger, Morris Williamson, and with me. Now,
good afternoon, So let's get look, we're six months out,
just a broad take on things as we as we
(01:40):
head towards it. How open is things or are you
are you seeing patterns which are leading in a particular direction.
We'll start with you, Helen.
Speaker 3 (01:49):
So the opinion polling has the polls pretty finely balanced
between a National Party plus Partners government and a Labor
Party plus Partners government. Labor's polling better than National, but
as we know, at the end of the day you
have to assemble a coalition and get a majority of
(02:10):
votes in Parliament. Now, the great political ponju of mister
Peters has showed a capacity to hop either side of
the line. Who knows whether that still continues to be
the case, but I think if I were in government,
I'd be starting to get quite worried. As you say,
six months out they've got one last big shot, which
(02:32):
is the budget. But here we are in the middle
of a war offshore, which is impacting on supply lines
and the cost of fuel. So it's not going to
be an easy budget. So that's why talk will turn
to what about the leader? Because the buckstops.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Of the leader.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
And if things aren't going so well and you start
to get more of these polls and the high twenty percent,
there will be a lot of nervousness.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Just before we go to Marris, wasn't it you that
said bug of the polsters?
Speaker 3 (03:08):
Was that you Helen nod? Damn?
Speaker 2 (03:12):
It was going off the top of my head and
I suddenly thought, hang on a minute, Okay, that's right.
It was how embarrassing for me, Marris? What do you
what's the tea leaves? What are the tea leaves showing
for you? And do you think there's a bit more
shuffling of those leaves to go? Look?
Speaker 4 (03:30):
I really think we have to look at this as something.
Prior to the Iran attack and post up until then,
Labor were definitely polling ahead of national I have been
terribly critical that I didn't know even what Nationals stood for.
I don't think lux and ever stamped his mark on
the leadership. If you go back to previous leaders including Helen,
(03:52):
you always knew where they stood. They had phenomenal chiefs
of staff in every case, Helen's one was amazing, and
you just knew where they stood and where things were going.
And yes, they lost after three terms, but that's pretty
much going to happen to any political party. Now that
you've got what's happening in terms of a complete turmoil
in the world, I think there's going to be a
(04:12):
totally different paradigm shift about where we go from here.
If the war's over very quickly, very small impact, fuel
prices back to pretty much normal, then we will go
back to where we were polling. I believe it's got
a long way to go with a lot of mess,
and I think that's a new world that voters will
have to be making an assessment under as we go
(04:33):
forward to November. And I don't know how to predict that.
I don't know how long this trump. I don't think
knows how long it will last. Be changes within the hour.
You know, some days it's going to be by ten
o'clock that day, and then it's going to be five
days from that, then it's not going to be and
then it was that afternoon. So we don't know where
this will go. But I think the impacts on the
(04:55):
world economy, on will Pray, logistics and shipping could be
so incredibly impactful that I think over and things really
come down to who do they his best to sort
of manage the economy and stabilize things and try to
(05:16):
get us through that, rather than a normal election campaign
of who's offering what and who's best at it.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
Actually, I just get this just at the end there, Marris,
just let you know you're just breaking up a little bit.
So if there's a preferred EA for your phone, just
to work your magic. Actually, Helena on that, I was
going to save this till the end of our chat
because you know, the last time you and I spoke,
you were making your thoughts about the Iran War very
(05:43):
clear as to how misguided it was, and I don't
think you'd be inclined to say I told you so,
but gosh, it's it's really I mean, I don't know
if you even would have predicted how bad it was
going to get what's what's what's your reflections on this?
Speaker 4 (05:57):
Now?
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Well, as we know from even recent history, let alone
having to go back decades and scenes, stepping into a
quagmire in the Middle East is pretty pretty risky, and
I would say rash and extremely dangerous. And we're seeing
this play out. Two or three weeks ago. The former
(06:20):
Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln was saying, look, you know,
any day Trump could declare victory and just leave, you know,
so that's a come what I came to do. I'm
out of here, and things would have, you know, come
back to normal supply chains reasonably quickly. But he missed
that opportunity, and now he's in donkey deep, as they say,
(06:42):
and the search goes on from missing airmen. There's rumors
that the vast amounts more troops heading to the Gulf.
In the meantime, You've got those more than two thousand
ships sitting in the gulf, about three hundred and ten
of them oil and gas tankers. How many would fertilizer,
which is essential, you know for the world agriculture. You
(07:03):
just don't know whether this is going to escalate very,
very sharply or not. Now if the US and Israel
begin to bomb power stations, power plants, Bader salvation all
hell will break those because are you're taking away the
(07:24):
sustenance of life. The Iranians have threatened retaliation against similar
type facilities in the golf and the region itself, so
this could get really horrible. It just needs to end.
It needs to end because the US, on the one hand,
site that they've hit, you know, all the military targets
(07:47):
come to get. But after that, what are you hitting.
You're hitting civilian infrastructure, You're killing more people. So this
is highly misguided and it can't close soon enough for
all of us.
Speaker 4 (07:59):
One thing I slightly disagree with Helen on I think
if even if Trump started to pack up stakes and
leave right now, I don't think it'll come back to
normal that quickly. I think that will take quite some
time to come back to normality. Prices will take some
time to come back. Price the petrol pump will take
eons to come back if they ever do so, there
(08:20):
will always be that hangover, but it won't be as bad.
But if it turns into an absolute free for all,
I have no idea what you would be looking at
as a political environment November to be standing in an election.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Well that's the next question really because I've had discussions
with panelists on this, and one who's saying the voters
are really smart, and then the discussion was, well, will
the vote, will the voters take out what's happening in
Iran and the repercussions. Will they take it out on
the government? Which is not necessarily logical? But is that
how it works? Maris?
Speaker 4 (08:52):
I don't think so. I think what would happen is
that they already knew that cost of living hadn't come back,
as the government when it was standing sealed to bring
it back. They already knew that they weren't going to
rain in the labor wasting money like a drunken and
we're going to reign at back. We're going to take
a sledgehammer of the debt mountain. But I think all
(09:12):
of the off green and we start with a new
clean slate. If indeed it's all to do with the
repercussions of the war. I think my view is the
election could easily come down to public think our best
manage the economy, post of living and so on, while
there's such uncertainty out there in the world.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Yeah, Helen, what do you think in terms of how
it sets back to an incumbent government in New Zealand
and an election time.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
So firstly, I think I agree with Morris that if
the war ended tomorrow, thinks aren't going to just suddenly
snap back into place oil and fertilizer, et cetera supply
wise it would take weeks, if not months, So there's
a bit of agony to play out there. But I
think what the public will be looking for is how
is the government managing the crisis. And here's where you
(10:03):
come to the leadershi a vacuum. Because we have a
PM who describes himself as a CEO. This leaves a
leadership vacuum. His ministers beneath him can't really fill it,
so it tends to be filled by Winston Peters, who's
erratic at the best of times. Secondly, the policies weren't
exactly working before this crisis. That the economy today is
(10:26):
smaller than it was before the election. The cost of
living was hurting people before this crisis, So I think
that when people come to judge who's best in the crisis,
the government's not necessarily that well positioned at a leadership
level or policy track level to take any advantage of that.
Speaker 4 (10:47):
Marius I think had come down to who's the least worst,
because we've got a bit of well, no, we've got
a bit of a history of what the previous did.
When COVID had put us all in the state we were,
they threw thousands of leaders of liquidity into the market.
Interest rates dropped to a quarter of one percent, house
prizes went through the route, and we're still paying a
(11:08):
massive amount for all of that over spending in the
accumulated debt. But people forget quite quickly in politics, and
instead of them saying well I remember back, they really
looked at their weekly income, what it's costing them to
get groceries and so on. I'm amazed, always being amazed,
always have been, at how short term memories are. And
(11:30):
I don't think that Luxeon's been a great leader by
a long shot. I don't think if that was the case,
they wouldn't be down in the high twenties. They'd be
polling in the low forties. So I think it'll be
who's best or sorry, who's the least worst at managing
the crisis?
Speaker 2 (11:45):
In my view, Oh wonderful choice, isn't it. Hey, Look,
we're just going to take a quick break We're with
Helen Clark, former Prime Minister, and Marris Williamson, former government minister,
as well as the MP for Parker Anger and we're
going to be back and just to take it and
digging into each different party and you know what are
they going to be looking to change or keep going
(12:05):
with as we head towards the election. This is News Talks,
but you can text your feedback anytime on nine two
nine two. What we're going to stick around with Helen
and Morris for the time being. It is twenty one
past three News Talks.
Speaker 5 (12:17):
BA.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Yes, welcome back to the Weekend Collective. We've got a
special panel today with former Prime Minister Helen Clark and
former Minister for National Morris Williamson, just taking up getting
our bearings because it's six months to the election on
this Easter weekend. And look, first next part of the
equation is just looking at National's reshuffle, which is probably
(15:25):
one of the first sort of moves that was looking
at maybe redefining a few things just before we go
to your opinion guys, not that I feel mine's worth
nearly as much, but I hadn't really cared about, you know,
polls and the Prime minister being chased through an airline
terminal as if he had been exposed for something much
worse than just a low poll result. But I thought
(15:46):
that the sidelining, no, not sidelining, but there's a slight
adjustment with Chris Bishop made me think that, I don't know,
maybe that makes luckx and look attle bit weak. What's
this all about? I'll ask Morris first, what was your
take on the reshuffle? Hang on a minute, what Morris?
I need to talk to you again and hold it.
I'll just quickly get you back on there we go.
(16:07):
Sorry marthe that's my toot.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
So okay. I was really pleased with what happened in
the reshuff well, because Chris Bishop was causing the National
Party huge damage in Auckland. And if you know the
number of votes at the last election, Auckland was where
National became government. They got a forty five percent of
the party vote across the twenty two electorates that cover
Auckland and only a thirty five percent over the remaining
(16:30):
forty four seats for the rest of the country. So
they would have phenomenally much better party vote in Auckland,
and right now they're not seeing that. And One of
the major reasons was Bishop has con on a regular
basis going out saying he wants to drive house prices down.
Luxeon's been a little bit more I think reasonable and
said he wants wages to grow faster than house prices,
(16:52):
so you'll get affordability that way. But what you can't
have is one of your major ministers going out and
saying something completely opposite. Helen would never have stood for
one of her ministers having a view the other direction
to where she was going. And I don't know why
Latson didn't stand up announce to say I'm the Prime minister.
What I say it goes, and if the Bishop's got
different views, there's no room for him in my cabinet.
(17:12):
But he didn't. And so I was going to public
meetings here with all the intensification, and they were mainly
in the blue ribbon seats where they get their big bits.
Why Ward here covers Botany and Pakaranga, and both of
those are the high sixty percent party votes for National
and there was just anger beyond belief at what mister
Bishop kept arguing for compared to what I think, And
(17:34):
so I think having sidelined him in some of that,
and he already had done the backtrack on his two
million dwellings back to the one point four, which I
think is an ineminently sensible number because you can start
doing the intensification round alcohol. So I think it was
a really good change, and I think putting Simon Brown
to run the campaign was a good move as well.
I don't know whether it'll change many votes at this point,
(17:55):
but over time I think it will.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Okay, Okay, what, Helen, what do you reckon?
Speaker 4 (18:01):
So?
Speaker 3 (18:01):
I think it exposes a couple of things. One of
them is that's what Morris just said. That clearly christ
Bership's drive for intensification in the special character areas in
Leafy suburbs went down like a lead balloon in Auckland.
Set me round my way up.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
Did it go down badly with you, Helen? What did
you think you beat?
Speaker 5 (18:24):
Takes? Well?
Speaker 3 (18:24):
Yeah, very very concerned because the plan he wanted for
my area would have seen anyone able to buy a
villa in a special Character area and put a fifteen
story building next year. Now you know, for all the
homeowners have invested in their properties in accordance with the
special area requirements. It's a bolt from the blue and
(18:46):
very unpleasant. But if your attitude is, as Morris said,
to drive down house prices, well, a lot of people
bought at previous peaks and that immediately puts them into
negative equity, which is a very vulnerable position to be in.
And that would apply not only to people on lower
incomes if they could have afforded any kind of home
(19:07):
at all for home ownership, but certainly right into the
middle income earners as well. So that was problematic. But
I think, yes, he was clearly a pretended to the throne.
But I learned a lesson early on when I became
the leader of the Labor Party, which I was for
fifteen years, and I faced a lot of internal issues,
(19:28):
particularly the first three years. I learned you had to
keep your friends close and your opponent's even closer internally,
and so you know, leaving Chris Bishop in a position
where he's in effect sulking on the sidelines won't be
good for harmony either. I think also Chris Bishop is
(19:48):
seen by most people as more middle of the road.
He's not in the quote conservative facts of the National Party.
He's one of those people who probably could have jumped
either way really depending on where he saw the opportunity.
So yes, as a number are things to consider around
that reshuffle, and marginalizing a pretender to the throne was one,
(20:11):
but certainly the Auckland factor was important.
Speaker 4 (20:14):
Sim if I can inflict you a couple of numbers
just for the Auckland intensification thing. When the Unitary Plan
was brought into place in twenty sixteen, it made allowance
and the Council has had to do it every year since.
Make thirty thousand properties available every year for thirty years.
That's what the Unitary Plan required. So thirty times thirty
(20:34):
gives you nine hundred thousand properties. In the ten years
since the Unitary Plan has been in we've been issuing Auckland.
Council has been issuing an average per annum of fifteen
thousand dwelling consents, in other words, only half of what's
been available every year. And it cumulates that the fifteen
(20:54):
thousand you don't use this year moves on to add
to the thirty thousand next year and then onto the
forty five thousand. So the idea that we were so
short of dwelling a capablebility in New Zealand in Auckland
was wrong because the numbers show there is a huge
gap between what was being made available and the capacity
(21:14):
being made developable compared to what was being used.
Speaker 3 (21:17):
And so I think Morris is absolutely right on this
because Auckland Council has actually done a damn good job
with its term planned. You know, the provision was there,
and as Morris says, even what was there, it wasn't
being taken up. I mean, I have a concern and
I saw it a bit in the previous government as well.
Central government is intruding far too much on local government's affairs.
(21:40):
They need to back off. We elect our local politicians
that are accountable through a democratic process, through planning processes
and so on. I just think central government should get
out of their lives and let them do their job.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Well, Wayne Brown'll be cheering you right now, waydy, Helen, I.
Speaker 4 (21:56):
Hope what's the old line render under Caesar those which
are Caesars.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
Yes, indeed, act it's funny. How are you saying, Helen?
You were saying that Chris Bishop so slightly, you know,
maybe a little bit more to the left of you know,
some of his colleagues, et cetera. It's funny. Of the
texts I get here just on the comments on this
panel today says why have you got a couple of
lefties on here? Morris quite identifies that way, does he.
Speaker 4 (22:21):
I'm going to have to get psychiatric help. That one
that was as that was a vicious blow. That was.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
Ah, look, you know you can't win them all. Hey, now,
look let's go to labor. Chris Hopkins. Is he the
right person Helen to take them to the selection? And
if so, why and if not, why not? I guess.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Well he is.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Look, he was a young staffer around the Beehive when
I was PM, and I remember when we had a
spot coming up for a new MP with Paul Swain
retiring in the Upper Hut Valley area, we said, why
not Chris Hipkins? He was the obvious person and I
personally think he's been a highly capable minister. I think
(23:07):
he did well in his first year as Prime Minister
before the last election. I have no reservations about Chris
Hopkins and he certainly has my strong support.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
If he wasn't, there is there anyone who's sort of
in the wings, just an obvious takeover, because I can't.
Speaker 6 (23:25):
Think anyone no, Look, look, there's always you know a
pool of people who could do the job, and I'm
not going to speculate on them because I don't.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
You give us something for these Helen Clark.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
I don't support a change, but look, look when I
went there was always going to be others who could
step up for that job. You know, Currently the government goes,
there's always going to be someone who can step up.
Some will step up faster than others, better than others.
Sometimes it's trial and error for a while, but there's
always there's always someone.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
What about What do you reckon, Marris, Because at the
moment it seems that so far Chris Hopkins is just
like sort of standing there on the sidelines and they're
doing quite well without them having to do very much.
Speaker 4 (24:10):
Well, that's a very good political tactic. Actually, why buy
into a fight when you're actually going well ahead of
I mean to be the seven or eight points ahead
in every one of them. I'm looking at the poll
of polls right now on my screen, and they're polling
way better. And I don't think they should have been.
After their last term in government. I thought they should
have taken such a ding they wouldn't be back in contention,
(24:32):
But they are they're ahead and they're doing well. I
think that changing the leader would be foolish when they're
where they are. I don't think they will. I think
there's just two things that they've got a bit of
a problem with. First of all, you don't get to
be government on your own. You've got to have other parties.
And whereas the Green seem to be way more a
social justice and worried about rather than the party, they're
(24:54):
still polling it. What is it here? Eleven eleven and
a half average, So that's reasonable contribution. But where does
the rest come from? And if it's from Tea Party Maori,
there's a huge chunk of ordinary voters out there that go,
these guys are such a worry, they're all over the
paddock on all sorts of stuff. So you know, elections
aren't for individual political parties. Got to get that over
(25:15):
to people over It's nothing to do with the individuals.
It's the cumulative of the coalitions who finally get to
make the government. And whereas I think National is at
least in with two partners that can work with and
they can work with again, I Thinkpkins, I think Hipkins
will be the leader. I think he's done a good
job actually so far, but I just don't know what
(25:37):
they're going to do about getting a reasonable coalition group together.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Well, that leads us to our friend Winston, and we'll
go with you, Helen on this first, because I think
my just sort of punter's view of it is that
I thought he had specifically ruled out ever going into
government with Labor as long as Chris Hipkins was the head.
And as I think three of us would agree, I
don't think Chris Hippkins is going anywhere. What's your understanding
(26:02):
of Winston and where the wins might blow him?
Speaker 3 (26:07):
Well, I think that Winston is probably positioning to be
a bit more flexible. Put yourself, for example, in his shoes.
If he goes through the election and the national poll
parties polling in the mid high twenties and Labors up
on the mid thirties, plus, what does he do when
(26:30):
we were in a similar situation back in nineteen ninety six,
we polled at twenty eight and that's we're up what
thirty three thirty six? Whatever? He went with them. I mean,
we were just too low and we knew it really,
So I think he'll keep a bit more flexibility in
his position than some of the statements that we've seen.
(26:53):
Part of his trick in staying in that balance of
power position has always been to keep people guessing about
which way he'll go. And if he becomes too locked
in with the current arrangement when it's not doing so well,
that can hurt him too. So I just think we'll
(27:14):
see a bit more movement around his positioning and rhetoric.
Speaker 4 (27:17):
What do you reckon, Marris Well, I think if you
think about it after an election's over, that's when the
real negotiations start. What you don't want to have given
all your hand away and said, here's my cards, you
have a look at them, and you know what I've
got before the day because he has to try and
get the most he can out of both sides, and
got to remember ninety six in the back and forwards
(27:38):
and the backwards and forward to track to where we
finally got to an aurs around waiting for the big announcement.
But I think in the end what he will now is,
and it's a deliberate thing that he should be doing,
I guess, is distinguishing himself from the government because we
don't get to vote our government for the parts, and
(27:59):
so he's got six months now to distinguish himself separately
in terms of the things that if he was back again,
he would not necessarily back a bottom line, but fight
for and demand that we made some of those changes.
I'll make your prediction now that it's the very big
middle tower at a small tower on either side called
(28:21):
New Zealand First and Act. I think the towers will
come more and more the two side. Ones will come
up a bit in the middle one will come down
a bit, but you're still going to have a very
very close outcome on the day.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Can I just quickly, let's not spend too long on this.
But I've had quite a few people who are fans
of New Zealand First who say that Winston will be
prime minister because they all of the balance of power.
I think that would be absurd. Where are you guys,
quickly on that? Helen.
Speaker 3 (28:53):
I don't think that will happen realistically. I don't think
either of the two major parties are going to conceive that.
Of course that was Winston's open gambler. Then he doesn't
get it. He's in a position to bargain for, you know,
some something large anyway. But no, I don't see that
(29:15):
as an outcome of the election.
Speaker 4 (29:16):
Marris Can I just add one little quick clippy. He's
foreign minister, I really do. I've got quite good connections
in with a lot of diplomats overseas and the seasons
over and over again. You guys must be very proud
of your current foreign minister, so I want to give
him some room. That's I think he's well represented New
(29:40):
Zealand well on the international stage. And however that's not
what comes of a leader going into a coalition looks.
Speaker 2 (29:48):
And yeah, actually it's like he's two different people in
a way, isn't it. There's Winston the foreign minister, there's
Winston the retail electioneering politician. They're sort of two different people,
aren't they.
Speaker 4 (30:03):
Well they almost have to be, though, because in one
you're trying to get some really good outcomes for the
nation and the other you're trying to get votes for
what Even he has to have, I think the biggest
problem god is he can't go with Maori Party in
any shape or form, and so if there was a
(30:24):
Labor plus New Zealand first he may, but if it
involved some of the other party, I think I don't
believe so.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Yeah, and Helen, that does make the mass a bit
difficult for labor, doesn't it.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
Well, the thing is Mores said, if you have labor
plus first, may well be close to being all over
barber shouting. You may supply from someone else. But I
think a concern I have is that Winston is campaigning
on a megastyle platform.
Speaker 4 (30:54):
Right.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
You see a lot of the overtones of US politics
coming into his positioning, and in a way that is
lapping over into how he does the job as as
Foreign minister. There's no doubt under the current government there
have been a lot more sidling back up to the US,
which given the nature of the US administration now, is
(31:15):
pretty pretty extraordinary. So I'm worried that the sort of
domestic policy limicurey that he's doing of the Make America
Great movement is lapping into the foreign policy positioning as well. Look,
he was my foreign minister and did a perfectly professional job,
so I have no beef about that. But I also
have a very strong view that New Zealand needs to
(31:37):
throw its own boat and not be beholden to the
foreign policy positions of others. And I think we're being
dragged into stuff that we shouldn't be near.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Right, thanks for that. We need to take quick break.
We're with Morris Williamson and Helen Clark. This is our
panel to looking forward to the next six months as
we head toward the election and getting Morris and Helen's
reckons on things. We'll be back in just a moment
and we're very grateful for their time. Of course. It
is twenty minutes to four o'clock back in Attack.
Speaker 7 (32:24):
US US five.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Yes, and welcome back. This is a special panel we're
having today with Morrison, Morris Williamson and Helen Clark. And look,
we've been talking a lot about Winston and he does
seem to have a way of squeezing himself into many
political conversations, which means it's kind a bit quiet on
the act front. Helen. And we've seen that Brook van
Velden's stepping away. What do you I mean if you
(35:32):
were advising David Seymour, Helen, Let's pretend.
Speaker 4 (35:40):
But I mean at that meeting, but I mean it.
Speaker 2 (35:45):
Does they are yet to build up a head of
steam Winston to me, and I guess it's playing into
it with the Iran thing and he's Foreign Minister, and
Shane's involved with the Energy and it's all got a
bit quiet for ACT. Brook's leaving. Now, how do they
grab some of the spotlight?
Speaker 3 (36:04):
Yeah, so this is I mean Winston's you know, he's
an old dog in politics and he knew that when
they were going to share that definitely prime minister's job.
He had to take the first eighteen months, so he
was free to campaign for the next eighteen in a sense,
David Seemoor an ACT campaign for the first eighteen months,
but everyone's forgotten about that, and now you've got eighteen
(36:24):
months where you know there's definitely prime minister. You have
to at least look like you're a job, you know,
like a populous agitator up there. So I think that's
been a limitation now Brooke Vandervelt, I mean clearly, you know,
she's responsible for a range of policies which I don't
(36:45):
like at all. But putting that aside, I would have
thought objectively, she was an attractive, younger human politician, you know,
a good look in that sense, and she beat an
incumbent National Member of Parliament who was a fundamentalist Christian
and obviously just too conservative for for the electorate. So
(37:06):
the issue will be what will happen now, I don't
know whether National has already chosen a candidate, what what
kind of positioning was, Yeah, and so you know who
will act put up? Will it be anyone as attractive
for voters there as Brook van de Belden will. Is
there any chance of a you know, sort of three
(37:27):
ways split where they carve up each other's vote and
someone comes through the middle. That tends not to happen
when that runs a strong candidate in an electorate, they
need to keep a foothold of the political system. So no,
it's not a welcome development for the Brook was going.
Speaker 2 (37:43):
So I didn't detect any advice in there. Helen.
Speaker 3 (37:52):
I think it's hard because he's sort of locked into
the steputy prime minister role and the campaign you know,
really only comes what about six eight weeks before the election,
and that's quite hard to rev things up against. So
I think I'd be saying to the strategists, Look, we've
got to be more visible. We've disappeared a bit from
public view. What do I need to do well?
Speaker 2 (38:13):
Because I did get the feeling that from a political
point of view, he was a bit of a political
heartbreak from that Brooks leaving and of course they had
that momentum Morris of the having that second electorate which
she had won as well. What's your take on where
what they can do and how it's looking for them.
Speaker 4 (38:30):
One of the drums that I've beaten over the years
and not had any one really listened to was the
fact that electorates don't really matter. They really don't. How
many seats you get in Parliament is determined by only
one thing, and that's your party vote. And if you
get a specific party vote, that entitles you to a
certain number of MPs, and every one of the seats
you win gets deducted from that entitlement. And so every
(38:54):
time I won pack Aranger, I used to say to
people that doesn't give national another seat, I get deducted
from their entitlement. So if you're down on the five
percent threshold, yes you want to get an a seat,
which I think EPSOM will be for David Seamore until
he decides to go, But after that, I don't think
seats really they matter to the individual because it's a
(39:15):
lot more prestigious that you're the MP for something rather
than a list MP. But in the end, the party
vote is the only vote. I used to say, and
we had election campaigns where I used to say to
the public here at meetings, if you want to split
your vote, please don't vote for me. Just make sure
you give my party your vote, because that's all that matters.
Speaker 2 (39:33):
It's amazing how often you have to explain that to people.
I mean you you both must have had conversations with
people constantly, and people say, I'm giving my I'm splitting
my vote, I'm doing this. It's like I said, who
do you want is government? And they were mentioned a
different party. I'm like, you've got to You've got it wrong.
Speaker 4 (39:48):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
I don't know what to say.
Speaker 3 (39:50):
But has always been a bit hard to understand that
there's one one single fact about it. Morris and I
would agree that you need to understand, and that is
it's the party vote to how many seats the party
has in parliament? That full stop.
Speaker 2 (40:09):
What are the Greens up to? I can't sort of
it doesn't.
Speaker 4 (40:14):
It doesn't if you win more seats than you were
entitled to from your party.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
Oh yes, yes, yes, And that's a little bit of
first pass place. Now just quickly, the Greens Helen Well.
Speaker 3 (40:27):
I think they're missing James Shaw got a tremendous amount
of time for James. I think he did a good
job as a minister, principal guy, but pragmatic, you know,
had a background in sort of analysis and investment banking
and so on. So they miss him now. They've also,
you had had one of the co leaders was off sick,
(40:47):
which is obviously very sad for her. She's back at
full urse, but was out for a while. We've had
some you know, the unfortunate sort of young man who
came into Parliament which became a very difficult thing to
manage and he eventually went. So it's been it's been messy,
very very messy. I think if I was giving them advice,
(41:08):
I'd say just go hard on what people expect Greens
to go hard on. There's plenty of communities around the
country upset about fast Track and what might go ahead
in their backyard, whether it's mining in the central Targo
High Country or whatever. You know, go hard on that.
Some of the decisions the government's been making as it
(41:29):
wound back the previous governments work on sustainable energy, you
could go after that. I mean, nothing's more crazy than
a terminal for imported LNG now that we see how
precarious importing that sort of fuelers. So if I were them,
I'd go back to basics, go back to being a
(41:50):
Green Party rather than always on everything, and focus on
what your core is.
Speaker 2 (41:55):
We'll get Morris's take on this in just a moment.
I do need to take a break. Thanks Helen. We'll
be back with Maurice Williamson and Helen Clark and just
to take it's nine and a half minutes to four
fe yes and with only about three minutes Leftcoft time
(45:15):
has rushed by chatting with former Prime Minister Helen Clark
and former Cabinet Minister for National Marris Williamson. Morris, your
take on will better include to party Murray, the small
amount of time we've got left and the Greens, what
do you reckon? What's the way forward for them?
Speaker 4 (45:32):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Is Marris there or there we go?
Speaker 4 (45:34):
Sorry? First of all, I don't think the Greens will
call an emergency meeting tonight to say Morris Williamson's given
us and we need to take it. So I'm not
hopeful of it. But I sit in there with people
like Jeanette fitz Simon's and Rod Donald and I had
enormous respect for them. I did with them on many things,
but I had enormous respect for the principles they held,
(45:55):
what they postulated in terms of wanted to go. And
I can tell you that in the we do there
were a number of people that were what you would
call on the nash of the Ledger were worried about
the planet, they were worried about climate change, they were
worried about the environment. A doctor's white where and would
have been in that voter but not. But right, the
(46:17):
Greens have oden what I think is some of the
sensible environment and conservation portfolio things where they could have
an attraction across abroad and have been out for the
defund the police stuff and the whole range of and
I just think all that is just what they've painted
themselves into a very dangerous corner of being limited politics
(46:38):
and side and.
Speaker 2 (46:39):
Lucky last to helen your thoughts.
Speaker 3 (46:43):
Well, as I said, I think the Greens get back
to core business, they'll probably do better. And I too recall,
as Morris does, when there were Blue Greens in the
National Party, guys Sam and kind of people, and they
did a good job Simon Upton, of course terrific and
still doing a great job as Parliamentary Commissioner for Environment.
So it'd be nice to see some of those elements
(47:04):
resurfer us again in the National Party and try and
get some more common cause on you know how important
the quality environment and looking after a natural heritage actually
is Mari party. I mean it's become a bit of
a family business, hasn't it around the tea. So that
and obviously a lot of internal struggles. I mean, party
(47:28):
vote is not what they go after. They go after
the electric vote, but the trouble I've been in I
think will make it difficult for them to hold what
they've got.
Speaker 2 (47:37):
Well, look, I really just wanted to say a massive
thank you to you both for joining me this afternoon
to give your thoughts on all this, and maybe we
can sort of request your company again sometime as we
head towards the election. Helen and Morris, thank you so
much for your time.
Speaker 4 (47:53):
Thanks Tom, Thanks thanks all by Morris.
Speaker 2 (47:56):
Bye, there we go. And that's one of my texters says,
you know a couple of lefties. Anyway, Hey, thank you
so so we really do appreciate that, and I thought
there was a fantastic discussion. You can listen to it
online if you want, and we'll be back with the
Health Hub Allison Gofton as next.
Speaker 1 (48:28):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to news
talks be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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