Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Six level.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Classic.
Speaker 4 (00:29):
Yes, welcome back or welcome in. This is the Weekend Collective.
I'm Tim Beverage and this is the One Roof radio
show where of course we want your calls on eight
hundred and eighty ten eighty in text on nine to
nine to two, and there's Look, there's a piece written
by in the One Roof website Tony Alexander, well known
economist who has basically the headline is sixteen reasons why
(00:53):
It's all over for mom and Dad property investors. So
as we look, the property market isn't what it was
a few years ago. It does feel like it's shifted
a little bit, and apparently it's shifting to focus on
the needs of you everyday owner occupy, but the demand
for rentals are still up. There doesn't look like that's
going to change anytime soon. But the problem is, among
(01:14):
other reasons that Tony gives as well, the cost of
running a rental is it an all time high debt
to income, loan to valueate ratio rules blocked access to funding,
lot long term capital gains aren't what they once were.
We don't know where that's going to go in the future,
and it's all leading to more professional property investors, but
the mum and dads are out of it. So anyway,
we want to know what you reckon eight hundred eighty
(01:36):
ten eighty text nine two nine two. Is it all
over for mum and dads and property investors? And what
what would it take to turn that around? Do you
think anyway to discuss that. He is managing director of
nz ATSIR at Southeby's Realty and he's with us for
the run Roof radio show. It's Mark Harris. Get a
Mark a gun.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
Kid a Tim. I'm good, thank you, good to be
here and thanks for having me.
Speaker 4 (02:01):
Are you where you're coming to us from Queenstown, aren't you?
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Are you coming to I'm actually coming to you from
christ Church with we had moved house gross Church for
the year for the year at the moment, just for
schooling purposes, but for you obviously we're you know, we're
loving you here as well. But yeah, shifted up the
up the up the island a little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
Oh lovely, hey, what I mean the market is different
to what it was years a few years back and
there was a time when it felt like all those
who were mum and dad investors have got and it
was like a no brainer. You just got to get
it and use your leverage and sit on it and
make a fortune. It feels that that narrative has shifted.
(02:44):
What was yours? What was your reaction to turn Alexander's
peace about it's all over?
Speaker 1 (02:51):
Yeah, well, you know I read the article, and you know,
I certainly the headline grabbed my attention.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
So what is this job done? Is this the headline?
Speaker 3 (03:00):
You know?
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Is it an attention grabbing headliner? Is a substance to it.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
So we'll obviously reflect, you know, back towards what we're
seeing on the ground. And yeah, he makes some good
points in there that you know, probably the you know,
the cost of entry has increased or you know, the
sort of filter system has it's become a little harder,
hasn't it. So you know, he mentions things like lvrs
and you know that that the you know, the benefits
(03:27):
that landlords had once once had may have shifted. But
to be honest, I think if you look at the
stats and the data, it.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
Would be you know, I wouldn't be in full agreement
with that. I think, you know, the.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Lowest part of the cycle, that part of the set
or that segment of the market was down around twenty
percent at his height. In twenty twenty one, it was
around thirty We're now climbing back through, you know, twenty
five percent of the total market. I would probably agree that,
you know, it's become more of a full time or
you know, like not professional, but people understand the fundamentals
(04:03):
a lot more.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
I think, is it's a lot more work.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
Do you have to be a bit more hands on
as a property investor, you know, in terms of managing
your investment, you know, making just you know, even just
what you have to do to make sure you're looking
after your tenants. Is it just busier?
Speaker 1 (04:20):
Yeah, I mean the LVR thirty percent to posit obviously
not everyone can do that. So that's you know, that's
the first the first step. And yeah, I've just seeing
a little bit more of long term holding onto these
investments as opposed to you know, that's a speculator coming
in playing a smaller deposit and looking to flip it
in a year or two. And I think that's healthy.
(04:41):
You know, I don't think the overall segment has dropped
or decreased. It's just that, Yeah, people are a little
bit more switched on with what they need to do
to purchase these properties.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
And that's a good thing, is it.
Speaker 4 (04:52):
I mean, look through the I don't know how long
I've been hosting a property show for a few years now,
and one of the narratives that was all time. The
narrative was lock the property market doubles every eight or
ten years, doubles every eight well at one stage it
was one of every eight years, and then all of
(05:12):
a sudden the narrative shifted to ten years. But now
the feeling is that, look, we're not going to see
a double. We may not see a doubling in the
property market for much longer period of time. So the idea,
I mean, even there's still money to be made, I mean,
if you're doubling a million bucks, but the returns, the
likely returns in the market in terms of capital growth,
it does feel that that's shifted, its elongated by quite
(05:36):
some years. Would you agree with that?
Speaker 2 (05:38):
I think so? Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:39):
I mean, you know what we do need to think
about is that, you know, within New Zealand, there are
multiple markets and these markets are all doing different things,
and you know, what capital gains someone gets in one
part of New Zealand is different to another. But overall, yeah,
I would I would agree that it's probably not you know,
as frothy as what it has been over the over
(06:01):
the last few years. But again that's that's probably a
good thing. You know, we want long term sustainable growth,
nice and crashes.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
That was the other side of it, isn't it? Because
and I've chatted with other real estate agents about this,
but I mean from your point of view, I mean,
you all know what from what your point of view is,
but my guess would be is and I think it
was when I yeah, I can't remember who I was
chatting about this with. But the important thing is you've
got a market which is busy, you know, where people
(06:29):
buying and selling. Where you've got willing buyers and willing sellers.
And I mean, from your point of view, I'm guessing
that's it's not so much about the returns. It's just
about a market which sets the scene where people feel
comfortable trading either way. Is that is that it for you?
What's what's your priority?
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, we want we want consistency, you know, so we
want a steady market that you know, both vendors and
buyers come out of the transaction satisfied. You know that
there's not pressure either way that's too great, particularly you know,
obviously on the vendor side. So you know, it's great
to see the market steadily improving. And yeah, I think
we've obviously been through a period of you know where
(07:07):
we saw a huge spike in it, you know, on
transactions in twenty twenty one, and then a crash quite
severely over subsequent three years. So it feels now like
we're at the start of you know, hopefully a three
or four year steady growth cycle, which you know is great.
You know, it's a good market for us to work in.
I mean, we obviously transact either side, but it's going
(07:28):
up or down. But it's a lot happier environment to
work in with. It's where it's steady and consistent. Sides
of the transactions are happy.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
So if you're spending a few million bucks, you're not
going to turn around and suddenly see you've had five
million dollars faced off, the sliced off of the face value.
Those days moved on. Do you think that's right?
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Yeah, I don't think anyone wants to see that, and
you know, hopefully we're at the start of a nice
three or four year upswing and in a control way.
Speaker 4 (07:54):
How much of it, how much of an influence. I'm
looking at Tiny's list here, and I don't want to
quote it like that, like it's the Bible or the
sixteen Commandments or anything, but I'm looking at the foreign
buying rules which basically restrict foreign buying to Australian and
Australians and Singaporeans for all but the most expensive houses.
(08:14):
Obviously you're on a you know, with Southby's, you transact
with some of the some of the higher end properties.
How much do you think that that law hasn't impacted
on the market or as you always do you think
that that was always overplayed, the foreign buyer thing.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
No, I think it's already having an impact.
Speaker 1 (08:32):
And what it's doing at the moment is it's stimulating
you know, New Zealand buyers, domestic buyers and Australian Singaporeans
who can purchase to start to act.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
So we've we've seen quite a jump.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
You know, we compare January to and February to the
same time last year, there's a substantial jump in sales
above five million dollars you know, throughout the country with
our business. And the rule hasn't actually come into play yet,
so it starts March six, but it's already having an effect.
And you know with regards to investment, that's apartments about
(09:04):
five million dollars, ye player.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
Part yeah, just so, what what's your I mean, it's
it's not your article, it's Tony Alexander. So but what
are you What are the essential differences between a mum
and dad investor, which is what he's talking about, and
professional investors. Is it just the size of the portfolio
or what.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Well, I think what he's referring to is someone who's
a professional investor. There's someone who's got you know, three
or four or more investment, you know properties out there,
versus a mum and dad who might have one or two.
So I think that's the way that he's probably viewing it.
But you know, to give you an example, last week
in Queensland was one of the busiest weeks we've had
(09:45):
in a long time. We did fifteen sales and seven
of those were investments, you know, and they certainly weren't
all professional investors. You know, six of them were holiday
home purchases or residential purchases and then when was the
first home buy?
Speaker 2 (10:02):
So they're definitely still there.
Speaker 4 (10:04):
So Queenstown, for those you're saying they're investors, are they
investing for renting or for airbnbing or how are they
looking at it or just.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Yeah, generally a long term hold. So they're running the
capital gameplay. I guess they're betting on New Zealand and
on the Southern Lakes which has a good, good growth
and continue growth to come hopefully, and then you know
generally as a place that they can use from time
to time. But yeah, the rules are reasonably restrictive with
(10:34):
how they are rented out, you know. Basically the council
controls rental apartments to ninety days unless you apply for more.
So a lot of the time, you know, So they're
purchasing them, putting into the rental market for ninety days,
getting short term rental income from them, and then using
them from time to time through the year themselves as
(10:55):
a lifestyle.
Speaker 4 (10:56):
So how what's that rule again?
Speaker 1 (10:58):
So the Queenstown Council, Southern Lakes Council restricts short term
rental to ninety days by right case it's there to
protect the hotels, which is sensible and other accommodation supplier.
Speaker 4 (11:10):
So you can only rent it for a short term.
I was misunderstand. So you can only have say, for instance,
AIRB and B, only ninety nights a year can be
done a airbnb. Is that right?
Speaker 2 (11:20):
Yes?
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Unless, yes, unless you apply it to counsel for an
upgrade to get qualifighters for visitor accommodation, which case you
will pay more in terms of your rates. But by
right ninety ninths short term, I mean you can rent
it out long term through the year, no problem, but
on a short term basis, it's the limit of.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Ninety Oh that's interesting. How much of a difference has
that made? What's your take on that whole situation.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
Well, I think it's sensible.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
You know, we need to you know, have some controls
over the amount of time that I think that properties
can be rented. You know, we need to make homes
available for people to you know, for rental purposes and
also to protect their you know, the tourism assets that
Queen's Down has. And I think that if people are
you really wanting to rent their probably out short term
(12:11):
more than that they can apply for it and obtain
it if they if they go through the go through
the system. So I think the rules tends to work
quite well. And you know, in case of someone owning
a property who lives in Auckland in Queenstown renting out
at ninety nights are up to ninety nights through the year,
they've still got plenty of time through the year to
use it themselves, you know, through the Ski Staeson all
(12:32):
through summer.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
So at the moment it's quite balanced.
Speaker 4 (12:33):
I think, yeah, what do you know, okay, if we
if I go back with that headline that it's all
over for mum and dad and property investors, what do
you think it would take to shift that around where
suddenly you know, mum and dads want to get them
because you know, we can all remember that it was
I think it was John Key who basically said, look,
you know people in Needer people need to take charge
of they're getting ready for a time and you need
(12:55):
to invest in property and stuff. I think even those
were the days when people thinking I've got to get
in or leave it up and all that. What do
you think would take would take for or that headline
to look like it was a bit out of date.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
Well, probably the main thing would be the lvrs, wouldn't it.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
You know, So you know, having at the moment to
pay thirty percent deposit, you know, a million dollar apartment,
you know you're required to put down.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Three hundred thousand dollars deposit and everyone can do that.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
So we reduce those lvrs back down to and I
know the banks have a threshold amount, you know, a
percentage of clients that they can go under that thirty percent,
but maybe it's increasing that percentage of the banks have
more ability to deal with people on a lower LVR level,
so far or ten percent, you know, you would certainly
stimulate things.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
And at the end of the day, the whole thing is.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
Linked to interest rates, and so you know, obviously we're
at the bottom of the cycle at the moment, so
we join those two things together.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
That's where you'll see, Yeah, a jump.
Speaker 4 (13:50):
I think, what do you think is going to happen
with the what's your take on the cash rate? You
saw that you might have seen the product the WISPAC
economists who are predicting six rises starting from they were
very pessmistic, if you want to look at it that way.
About interest rates going on, you'll take on it.
Speaker 1 (14:07):
Well from my point of view, I just said, we're
sitting down around to two point twenty five, you know,
through the election, and we get a jump at some
So we're getting we are going to get a jump
at some point. I mean, we're heading in the right
direction of the economy and we'll get a jump at
some point.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
But you know, I'd probably be a buyer it early
next year.
Speaker 4 (14:24):
Do you guys watch the announcements of the cash rate
and I mean you would have watched on a bream
And I don't want to make it about her and
the Reserve Bank announcement, but I thought she sort of poured.
She came across as quite measured and what they were
predicting and sort of put some of those more pessimistic
rate hike predictions maybe a little bit further in the shadows.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Yeah, we keep it really close high because I mean,
the industry is so linked to interest rates in the
economy in general that we we try and keep pretty
close watch on it. And you know, it does play
a significant role in terms of people's decision making, and
we need to be able to talk informative with clients,
particularly at the higher end, especially.
Speaker 2 (15:08):
When they're looking at New Zealand from afar about what's
going on generally.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
I mean we're not politicians or economists or bankers, but
yes we do actually just curreer.
Speaker 4 (15:17):
I mean you might not be able to coming it's
on this, but a lot of people would assume that
when the higher end of the market roll into town
that they're sort of just buying properties outright. How often
are the expensive properties Are they changing hands with a
great deal of borrowing involved?
Speaker 2 (15:32):
Not very often.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
I mean sometimes you get we've had a situation over
the last little while, we've had a bridging deal but
put in place just between someone selling their property and
buying it. But I mean I wouldn't really need to
do it from it, So not particularly that often. But
it's more about the sentiment and knowing where the country
is headed and where the economy is going, and just
having a sort.
Speaker 2 (15:51):
Of macro view at that level.
Speaker 1 (15:53):
I mean, they're all pretty well educated and quite often
come with a big entourage of advisors who are steering
them totally. Yeah, you know, so sometimes we get, you know,
purchase has happened. You know, at the at the super
high end, you've got an entourage of advisors that come
out for the real purchaser totally. So, yeah, we've had
(16:15):
it last week.
Speaker 4 (16:16):
So what does that look like? I mean, I know
that's not on topic, but you've picked my curiosity then,
because I just assumed people, you know, rolling, they've got
a bit of extra cash in there and just in
a different ballpark, and they go show me some properties
and they go and have a look around and go,
this looks great. But what are they How does that work?
Speaker 1 (16:36):
No, you're Yeah, if you're above twenty thirty million dollars
and you're looking at a substantial investment like that, then
you've got you know, you've generally got a you know,
if you're coming from say family office, you've got someone
who's running the family office for you. Within that family office,
you'll have accountants, you'll have property advisors.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
You'll have all sorts.
Speaker 1 (16:56):
So quite often what we've seen is private jets arrive
and then you know there's a there's a group of
three or four, all these guys and they're coming through
looking at properties and you know, ticking boxes and making
sure everything's in order for the purchas or even rass
to look at it, or they going back and reporting.
They're doing a whole bunch of due diligence file the
council files, et cetera, before any decisions are made about
(17:17):
even coming and looking at it, because.
Speaker 4 (17:18):
I guess I just always assume that once you get
into the upper end of the market, if you're buying
in Queenstone, you're buying because you want a wonderful property
to have a holiday in. Whereas that they're stacking it up,
like is this a good investment? How do the numbers look?
You know, is this what's the asking price?
Speaker 5 (17:33):
Like?
Speaker 4 (17:34):
You know, how does it kind of are they looking
at it always from an investment point of view? I
know we weren't going to discuss this, but you just
pique my curiosity. Sorry about that.
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Well, I think if you give using the example of
someone who's based overseas, who's you know, a busy company
owner or business owner or ceo, et cetera, to get
on a plane and come to New Zealand to look
at something, is you know, a big decision in terms
of their their diary.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
So before they do that quite.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Often, yeah, quite often send and we had an example
of it last week. You know, people come down in
advance report back on the quality of the property, you know.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Because they're not bought in New Zealand before. Let's say, so,
they don't you know, they don't understand the quality of
the bill.
Speaker 4 (18:17):
And the culture.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
Architecture, et cetera.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
So, I mean, it doesn't happen all the time, but
it's certainly reasonably regular.
Speaker 4 (18:24):
Yeah, Okay, look, I know that was a bit of
a digression, but I'm just you know, I just had
to had to dig into that a bit more because
I think, actually, I guess you know, we all have
different perceptions on how different parts of the market behave
and why people's motivations are. But anyway, no out, if
you have, we'd love your feedback feedback on this because
there are some arguments that Tony Alexander's put forward on
(18:45):
the reasons why it's all over for mum and dad
property investors. One do you believe that? And two what
do you think it would take for that to turn around?
Because you know, we whenever we're dealing with the present
and the property market, everyone, you know, a lot of
the rhetoricords like well this is just the way it is,
and all of a sudden, a couple of as later
you're like, oh, well that was then, this is now,
(19:07):
it's completely changed. What do you think it would take
to change that? Oh, eight hundred and eighty ten eighty
text nine to nine two where with Mark Harrisy's from
Southeby's Realty and we'll be back in just to tick
newstalks b. Yes, newstalk zedb. We're talking about the state
of the property market when it comes to mum and
dad investors. Tony Alexander reckons it's all over for them.
(19:27):
Great headline, is it and what would it take to
turn it around? Mark Harris from Southebey's is with us
taking your calls, Jonathan, Hello, Yeah.
Speaker 6 (19:36):
Hi guys. So in terms of the residential property investor,
as far as them getting back into the market, you
have to remember that under the previous administration, labor were
really quite hostile to mum and dad property investors. The
key to that was obviously disallowing interest, disallowing depreciation, deductibility,
(20:00):
and really making it hard for them to operate what
really is a business. And I feel very sad for them.
I'm not a residential property investor, I'll just make that disclosure,
but I'm a large commercial property investor. I own office
buildings with multi tenant locations, so I deal with it
(20:21):
in the commercial sense, and it's very hard for us too.
It's just the reality of life these days.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
Now.
Speaker 6 (20:28):
Obviously that improved under the National Coalition government because they
brought back interest deductibility, which I might add as available
to everyone else in any other form of business they
invest in, and so it should always be available to
profit investors. It's a nonsense it was ever quarantined, and
(20:49):
I'm thrilled that they've done that. But if you're a
mom and dad investor, now you go, well, is labor
going to get back in, you know, come the elections
later on this year, and if they did, would they
again squash interest deduct ability?
Speaker 3 (21:05):
Probably?
Speaker 4 (21:06):
Actually I hadn't. I've completely forgotten about that variable. Actually, well,
I've got you, Jonathan Mark. Do you think that political
uncertainty is also part of that equation?
Speaker 2 (21:19):
Yeah, I think I think in this segment it probably is.
Speaker 1 (21:22):
I mean, if anyone's going to be considering what policies
have changed throughout the you know, with the election occurring
in November, then it's probably your investor market.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
You know.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
There's obviously talk for couple gains tax et cetera. But
the negative gearing, like Jonathan's mentioned mentioning is certainly one
that people will be keeping an eye on as well.
Speaker 4 (21:39):
Jonathan, does it irritate you? I mean, I'm not a
property investor, but I still get irritated by the political
discussion they talk about how national granted tax relief as
opposed to simply restoring what every other business has with
tax deductibility.
Speaker 6 (21:55):
Yeah, exactly. It's an absolute nonsense term. I just I
just found it outrageous that labor frame it that way
because it's.
Speaker 4 (22:03):
What's fundamentally disast isn't it to me? It's actually it's
as close as you get to lying without lying.
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And the reality is is that you know,
roughly forty percent of people eleven rental accommodation, and they
need decent rental accommodation. And over the decades, and I
know this from the seventies, the state has been a
very poor provider of rental accommodation. Most of the rental
accommodation they built from the fifties and later than that
(22:33):
was rubbish. You know, a lot of it monolithic, a
lot of it leaked, none of it maintained properly, and
it was the private sector that provided actually reasonable quality
housing for people to live in.
Speaker 4 (22:46):
I can't remember. It's like, isn't it eighty percent or
is it seventy percent? All of residential rentals provided by
private landlords?
Speaker 3 (22:54):
Is that?
Speaker 2 (22:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 6 (22:55):
Could easily be that.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (22:57):
Absolutely so, whether they like it or not, Labor and
the Greens, the socialist coalition of the left, need the
private sector to provide rental accommodation. And you've got to
make it a level playing field. I mean, as far
as I'm concerned, it's as simple as this. If you
get to ductibility investing in shares, which you do, and
(23:18):
you get to ductibility investing in a business, which you do.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
Yeah, Oh, I think Jonathan just clicked off on him
the south there? Did he the something's happened there, Jonathan.
We can't hear you either muted yourself. But I think
we get there. Just actually if Jonathan's still there there
was Are you still there?
Speaker 5 (23:34):
No?
Speaker 4 (23:34):
I can't not sure if we've lost him or not.
I think we have. I might just put him back
because I did have one other question actually, which was
actually just because he's a commercial investor, I was curious
to know what led him to become commercial investors. In fact,
I just might as well ask you that one mark
most people who you know have become commercial property investors,
have they? Is it? I mean, is it like a
(23:57):
sporting analogy that you come through the junior ranks of
residential investing and then get into commercial or are some
people just start in commercial property in a way they
go from there.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Yeah, I probably would agree.
Speaker 3 (24:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:08):
You know, from what we've seen a lot of people
start off on the residential side and then shift once
they understand what they're doing on that side, it would
shift to the commercial side. I mean, you're going to
get some people to come straight out of the boxes,
and I would define as professional investors going straight into commercial.
Speaker 2 (24:23):
It's generally, you know, the other way around this.
Speaker 4 (24:26):
Talk about it being is it easier for professional investors? Now,
that was part of the thing. It's tougher for mum
and dad's, but it's easier for professional investors. I'm not
hearing the idea that it doesn't feel. I find that
hard to imagine that anyone's finding it at the moment,
to be honest.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
No, I mean I probably from the point of view
of the rate cycle it is, isn't it where we're sitting?
And again, some of those policies that the National Party
have brought into play, you know, are assisting you know
on the investment you know, within investment of apartments, et cetera.
But yeah, it's going to be an interesting decision or
(25:03):
an interesting year around the to see if we get changes,
if we get.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
In Yeah, okay, we love your cause on this eight
hundred and eighty ten eighty. Do you think things are
over for mum and dair property investors for the reasons
that have been outlined by Tony Alexander. I should mention
a couple of that. I should actually give you a
few of the list of the reasons. Actually we've talked
about some of them here, the debt, debt to income,
loan to value ratios. We talked about the politics and
(25:29):
the political uncertainty. In fact, I don't even if Tony
mentions a political uncertainty around that, which is an interesting one.
I think he probably could have said seventeen reasons. Couldn't Mark,
you probably could have Yeah, I tell you what, we
will take a break eight hundred and eighty ten eighty
because the other thing we want to dig in this
hour is looking at this thing around townhouses and some
(25:52):
of them taking so long to sell that they are
losing their new build status. And what's behind that? Is
it just what is what's behind the townhouse lack of appeal?
Or is it just simply we're building a lot of
them and they're not all selling as quickly as they
Good eighty eighty though your calls Text nine, it's twenty
five minutes to five News Talk sit Bee News Talk
(26:13):
said be with Tim Beverage. This is one refradio show
talking about whether it's sober for mum and dad investors
and what would it take to turn that around? Is
it a bad thing? All those sorts of things with
Mark Harris from Southerby's Kiram. Gooday, Hi, good day.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (26:28):
So yeah, I read that article from Tony as well. Yeah,
I'm not sure about mum and dad investors, but I
agree that professional property investors. Yeah, I mean, they've got
a big role to play in the economy and I
don't see that going away. But yeah, overall, I don't
think you know, the mum and dad investors are going
(26:51):
to go away as well, because you know, we need Yeah,
we need everyone to be providing rentols. So yeah, I
just don't buy into this whole propaganda that's been spread.
It's not only by the economists. The National Party is
doing this as well.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
Yeah, what's the propaganda.
Speaker 7 (27:13):
So the propaganda is, you know, I've spoken to some
of the people in the National Party recently as well,
and they keep saying that, well, we've got to remove this,
you know, reliance on property, you know, with the property
being tied to the New Zealand economy, and I just
don't agree with that, you know, so they keep repeating this.
(27:35):
It came from the Housing Minister, and then you know,
even the Finance Minister and even the Prime Minister, and
the State of the Nation's speech mentioned you know that,
oh well we shouldn't rely on you know, letting more
people in and house prices going up and you know,
sugarhead to the economy. We don't actually have a lot
of options unfortunately. So that's one of the reasons we're
(27:57):
still seeing the economy not taking off, even though a
lot of the other sectors are doing pretty well.
Speaker 4 (28:05):
But aren't they just just to play devil's advagate. Aren't
they really just saying, look, we need to focus on
building a productive economy that just doesn't rely on people
rolling into the country to spend a lot of money
on real estate. I mean, is that I mean that
makes sense. You can imagine why they're pushing that.
Speaker 7 (28:21):
Yes, no, no, I'm sorry, I don't agree with that,
because you've got to bring people together. If you look
at I'm not a big fan of the previous prime minister,
but if you look at the previous prime minister. You know,
when they tried to bring in the capital games tax,
we went through months and months of consultation and then
later on it was announced, even though it was blamed
on Winston Peters, it was announced that well, we can't
(28:44):
bring people together to introduce the capital games tax, you
know back then the National Party, I don't know why
they've woken up after the election. They never campaigned on
this issue. They never made clear what the intentions were
during this term. But they keep, you know, parroting this
thing that oh, well we don't want you know, suddenly
(29:05):
have changed their mind. You know, like if you look
at the junkie era, they used to be relying on
immigration and the property price is going up. But why
does sudden change without any explanation, and they're trying to
influence the people and trying to put people off from
investing in properties.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
Okay, by the way, what skin in the game have
you got? Are you an investor?
Speaker 7 (29:26):
Or?
Speaker 2 (29:26):
What?
Speaker 4 (29:27):
I want to be an investor? Yes, okay if I'm properly.
Speaker 7 (29:30):
So I've been you know, properly invested since the GFC,
and it doesn't it doesn't totally affect me. I'll keep going.
But you know the fact that you know, they keep
putting other people.
Speaker 4 (29:42):
Off, and yeah, I get it. I mean, yeah, that's
an interesting point I think is going to provide some
more conversation on this mark what you might not want
to climb into that political thing. Do you ever take
on that?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Well, I mean, I.
Speaker 1 (29:57):
Don't think that the National Party are in any way
anti supply, and I think that's what they're trying to,
you know, affect with this so well, they're trying to
affect productivity and growth, but at the same time, you know,
increased supply for renters, and I think that the policies
that are in place at the moment are leading towards that.
So you know, if there is an election, government change
(30:20):
party change at the.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
End of the year.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
My concern is that these policies are reversed and then
you know, a Titans supply and it's not what we
need at the moment.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
So I mean, it's it's it's sort of felt like
Kurram was sort of all it's either where we've got
to be all in with just bringing money in and
you know, our market, our economy relies on. I mean,
I just think there's a bit more nuanced to it,
doesn't there anyway?
Speaker 1 (30:44):
I think so, you know, with regards to the overseas
by comment, you know, I think that the filters in
place now at five billion dollars, it's pretty.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
Significant hurdle, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
So it's not like we're opening the doors and you
know that all the floodgates are you know who we're
going to run through and buy everything out from underneath
first home buyers.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
It's has a fair of them.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
To jomp yeah, right. Unsurprisingly though, that's triggered a few
people to want to have their say on it. So
we might not get onto the townhouses because we've got
a bunch of people lined up to have their say
on it.
Speaker 5 (31:16):
John Hello, Oh yeah, yeah, I was just in relation
to Tony Alexander, and now I think he's put a
bit of a shockwave through people like Perahm and a
whole lot of property investors. He suddenly we hadn't Suddenly
he's done it for a while now his jump ship,
and he's now saying property, you're not going to make
the capital gains out of it, so basically forget it.
(31:38):
Whereas he was one of the big spookers and pumping
up property for years, he always had their backs, the
property investors, and that now he's he's good because he's
he's seen what's happening.
Speaker 4 (31:51):
That's a bit rough on Tony. I think he just
called it as he saw it as an economist.
Speaker 5 (31:56):
Well, yes, but he's always promoted it as a good,
excellent way to go, and now he's seen it that
it's not and it's not going to be quite a while.
That's what he's sort of shaw.
Speaker 4 (32:07):
I might just say, John, he's just being an economist.
He's observed one thing and now he's observing something else.
I think I think you might be bicking about ash
on him. But I appreciate you call though. Thanks for
calling Matte Greg.
Speaker 8 (32:18):
HELLOK, guys here, good Thanks a couple of observations. The
first one would be the residentially about that for buying
and selling the function of the price. So if the
price comes down town enough, you know, the residential buyers
will always be in the market because they can get
a healed out of it. Go by they won't. So
(32:41):
that's that will be my first point. And I think
the second point is that as residential property only comes
more of a business, then they probably should be paying
business rates to reflect that. The counsels to be able
to do all of the all the things they need
(33:02):
to do in terms of providing all the funk our
investment property. Yeah, in terms of the CBD, I think
there's a quite a large problem that exists that no
one really talks about, and that is people buy into
(33:22):
large apartment blocks as an investment to take their rents.
But two things they don't do. One, they don't really
invest in their own property. And the second thing that
happens is they're often the building management companies or the
body corporates don't actually put enough money into actually keeping
(33:44):
the buildings up to scratch, and so buyers that come
along later can often get trapped into poor investments because
they move aware of the states that buildings around there's
plenty of there's plenty of buildings around an Auckland that
you can evidence that with.
Speaker 4 (34:00):
Yeah, hey, thanks Greg, Hey, I've got to keep it
moving mate. I appreciate your call. Actually, just quickly before
we go to Steve, the townhouse thing we touched on
a panel. So the townhouse is a mark that are
taken so long to sell. Is this just a price
for sure or is this just a type of property issue.
What's your observation on it.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
I think it's it's a supply issue.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
You know, there's been the last five years, you know,
a huge amount of them built, particularly in Auckland, and
we've got a supply you know issue where you know,
demand seems to be steering itself back towards standalone homes
because standlone home prices have come down, so the gap
between you know, standlone home and the villa is now
(34:42):
a lot closer, and people are steering towards something with
a garden and the garage versus a common wall. But
it'll flush itself through, like the last caller just said
it in market dynamics will work when price mats.
Speaker 4 (34:54):
Do you think the price will shift on some of
these townhouses.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
I think it's probably going to have to.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
Yeah, and the other the other point of that is
the Triple C, so the code of compliance rule around
the five T.
Speaker 2 (35:05):
So you know obviously that's playing part as well.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
Yeah, okay, look we're gonna squeeze one more. Call Steve,
you got two minutes.
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Good guys. I'm very pessimistic where I think the economists
sound like natropaths to me when they're trying to you know,
like trying to treat cancer, and they're just you know,
the sort of talking it up that I can tell
in your voice you're not you're not actually convinced yourselves. Actually,
I think you realize yourselves when you talk amongst yourselves
(35:32):
that we're probably actually in the Japanese style zombi economy,
and we could be in this for about a decade
maybe more, because I think there are four things holding
this country back. It's demographics, it's some nimbi's. We don't
have the brains, we don't have to combine neurons unfortunately,
like Australia has. They've got twenty seven million, you know,
more brains to be combined, and they've got just a
(35:55):
better range of thought and creativity. And I'll tell you.
Speaker 4 (35:58):
One, but it's pretty negative. I mean, we've you know,
we've we've got some pretty bright people.
Speaker 3 (36:03):
We'll give you an example. I'll give him a double.
Do you know what I hate seeing I see in Takapoona.
Because I'm in the building industry, you probably don't notice this.
I'm just being straight up with here. Right now. You
see one miserable build high rise building in Takapoona, right,
Why why can't it be a dozen?
Speaker 2 (36:22):
There?
Speaker 3 (36:22):
High? Right? And you look at overWe one high rise building.
They all took over ten years of planning to get
off the ground. You look at render Wearer, got a
couple of little high a couple of high rise apartments
that look quite nice. Why is there only three? Why
are we not looking at a place? Why are we
not like the gold coats? Why are we we don't
have a dozen in Takapoona a dozen? And rendow Wearhu.
Speaker 4 (36:45):
Yeah, I don't know. I love your cause, but I'm
going to throw that one to Mark before we wrap
it up. Mark, isn't there a bit of market at
play with some of the stuff as to who wants
to build apartments? And buy them and all that.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
Well, first of all, I'm Australian and I'm still here
so I can see the lights. So I'm probably not
as pessimistic as what he is, but but I feel
the the angst, you know, And I would say, though,
you know, I'm not just saying this, I've been here
for twenty years. I actually think, you know, it's now
is as good a time as any surperchase. I think
(37:20):
these guys are making the right decisions and we're just
it's just taking a little while to get there.
Speaker 2 (37:23):
But I do think we'll get there.
Speaker 4 (37:24):
I was actually going to direct Steve to have a
look at them. I mean, they're not necessarily worried buy,
but the simplicity living, some of the developments that are
going up in Auckland with apartments. I mean, Auckland's got
some big developments going on. I don't know what the
future film is, but you know, actually that just to
tie back to Anna Bremen, she was saying that. She
did say she said, look, this is a great little economy.
People were too pessimistic. So Anna and Steve need to
(37:49):
have lunch. Anyway. Hey, look we've got Property of the
Week as next I do appreciate you call, Steve. I
love your passion for your point of view, so good
on you keep calling. It's ten to five the one
roofed property of the week on the Weekend Collective. Yes,
and as I say, every week, it's sometimes just like
taking a little visual holiday. Looking at the property of
(38:09):
the week in today's is no exception. It is a
it's a Queenstown address. It's twenty seven Edinburgh Drive. You
find it on the one roof website. Five bedrooms, four bathrooms,
one car, one car garage. I missed that. But the
house is big. It's four hundred square meters on the
land of a one thousand square meters built in nineteen eighty. Look,
it's got an estimate of around six point eight million.
(38:32):
But I was actually I'm curious to know what you
make of it. Mark, I love it, but I love
anything that has the views that you do in Queenstown.
But you're dealing with this stuff all the time. How
it's I thought it was gorgeous. It's absolutely gorgeous property.
But what's your what's your take on it in terms
of the value and what you get?
Speaker 1 (38:50):
Yeah, that's that's a great position Edam had drive right
at Queenstown Hill. If people can see it or no.
The area, it's looking straight back over the lake in
Township and also the golf course. So what we say
is it's looking about down both arms of the lake.
So it's quite a unique corner position with a sort
of five minute or less certainly down to town. Yeah,
(39:12):
so a great position in a well built probably recent
it's been renovated.
Speaker 2 (39:16):
It was an older home that's been renovated. But it's
in a great spot.
Speaker 4 (39:18):
That's the quirky thing about it, because it looks gorgeous
from just about every angle except from the front. It
just the timber looks there's one shot of it where
it suddenly looks a bit older. It looks a bit
older than the rest of the house, do you know
what I mean? It's just with the weather boards or something.
But I think it's just the just the light and
it's in the shade and all that sort of stuff.
(39:39):
But it is stunning, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (39:41):
Yeah, it's really beautiful and I would rent really well
as well as what we were talking about earlier.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
It's not some yield from it, not one of yours,
is it?
Speaker 2 (39:49):
It is one of ours? It's one of ours.
Speaker 1 (39:51):
I'm not the listing agent, but it's definitely one of
our properties.
Speaker 4 (39:54):
Yes, and so would somebody be buying that too? I
mean would the person be buying that what for to
have it themselves as a place to live, visit or
to d.
Speaker 1 (40:06):
That's most likely I think going to be someone from
out of town, from Auckland or Sydney or you know,
christ Church who's going to buy that and use it
throughout the year, probably summer dealing with their golfers, et cetera,
or the ski season and possibly put it back into
our mental management ball to rent you know that short
term ninety days a year and get some yal fromatives.
Speaker 2 (40:26):
And the cover costs.
Speaker 4 (40:27):
Yeah. Yeah, I see the obligatory Tim Wilson paintings in
the hallway as well. Boy, but those have gone through
the roof of those paintings as well. Hey, hey Mark,
thanks so much for joining us. Mate. What's so just
getting adjusting to life in christ Church for a bit,
are you?
Speaker 1 (40:44):
Yeah, we've got the kids in school, we've got everyone settled,
commuting back down a Queen's Enough to Aukland on Monday,
et cetera. So yeah, it's pretty central for all that
sort of thing, and yeah, we really enjoyed it and
enjoying being back by the tay.
Speaker 4 (40:55):
As well and an Australian living in a loving New Zealand.
By the way, everyone there, we go just to write
the letter a little bit. Hey, good on you, Mark,
Thanks for your time.
Speaker 2 (41:03):
Mate, Thanks Jim Okay.
Speaker 4 (41:05):
We will be back with Sarah chat one. Should you
stay together for the kids on the parents squad? Big question?
Your thoughts after the break and the news Backcaine.
Speaker 5 (41:20):
For more from the weekend collective.
Speaker 4 (41:22):
Listen live to News Talk ZEDB weekends from three pm,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.