Nick Mills: Are Cyclone Vaianu Warnings Risking a Boy Who Cried Wolf Situation

EDITORIAL: Are we starting to overreact to the weather? 

Now before anyone jumps on the phone — yes, I know what’s happened up north.  

Yes, I know what happened with the cyclone and it caused real damage.  

Flooding across parts of Northland, the Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s Bay. Yes I know that.  

States of emergency declared. Power outages. Evacuations. Roads closed. People genuinely affected. Up north. 

Those are the facts and they matter. 

But here’s the bigger picture we’re being told now: New Zealand is entering what experts are calling a more defined “cyclone season.”  

This isn’t just a one-off. We’ve already had multiple major weather events in 2026 — storms earlier this year that caused deaths and serious flooding.  

Scientists are warning that while cyclones may not come more often, they could be more intense, last longer, and hit harder. 

So yes — the risk is real. 

But here’s the question I can’t shake this morning: are we starting to jump too quickly into full shutdown mode every time a system rolls through? 

Because we know this is the time of year. We know we sit in a part of the world where these systems track down. This is not new anymore — this is becoming part of the pattern. 

And yet — what are we seeing? 

Batten down the hatches. Cancel plans. Stay home. Prepare for the worst. 

Now again — authorities will say that’s exactly the point.  

Early warnings save lives. And they’re right.  

Since events like Cyclone Gabrielle, behaviour has changed.  

People take warnings seriously. Emergency management acts earlier. 

And in many cases that's the preparedness that we want and absolutely prevents tragedy.  

That’s a good thing. 

But is there a tipping point? 

Because when every weather system is treated like it could be catastrophic, something else starts to happen.  

People stop going out. Businesses take a hit. Events lose momentum. And slowly, quietly, the economy feels it.  

And it starts to feel like it’s clickbait for media. It starts to feel like a build up days before. 

And here’s where it gets tricky — because you don’t want complacency.  

You don’t want people ignoring warnings when a genuinely dangerous system is coming. 

But you also don’t want a country that freezes every time the forecast turns rough. 

We’ve seen the impacts — infrastructure under pressure, insurance costs rising, councils facing huge bills to build resilience.  

All of that is real, and all of that needs serious long-term thinking. 

But day-to-day? 

Are we getting the balance right?  

Or are we starting to default to worst-case scenario thinking every time will be a catastrophe — just in case? 

Because if this is the new normal… if this really is a “cyclone season” we’re going to live with… 

Then the way we respond to it matters just as much as the weather itself. 

So, here’s the question this morning — have we found the right balance between caution and overreaction? 

Or are we, bit by bit, becoming a country that shuts down too easily? 

Should we be more cautious of a boy who cried wolf situation in Wellington? Because that’s the part that really scares me. 

Do we overreact too quickly? 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talks.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
At B Are we overreacting to the weather now before
everyone jumps on the phone, Yes, I know what happened
up north. Yes, I know what the cyclone and the
damage it caused, real damage. Yes, I know that flooding
across parts of North and the Corimandel Bayer plending hawks made. Yes,

(00:32):
I know that states of emergency declared, power outages, evacuations,
roads closed, people genuinely affected up North. Those facts are
facts and they matter. But here's the bigger picture we've
been told now New Zealand is entering what experts are

(00:55):
calling a more defined cyclone season. It's not just the
one off. We've already had multiple major weather events in
twenty twenty six. Storms earlier this year cause deaths and
serious flooding. Scientists are warning while cyclones might not come
more often, they could be more intense, last longer, and

(01:18):
hit harder. So yes, the risk is real. But here's
the question that I can't quite shake this morning. Are
we starting to jump too quickly, jump into full shutdown
mode every time a system rolls through Because we know
at this time of the year. We know where we

(01:40):
sit in a part of the world where the system
tracked down. It's not new anymore. This is becoming part
of the pattern. And yet what are we seeing. Batten
down the hatches, cancel plans, stay at home, prepare for
the worst. Now again, authorities will say that's exactly the point.

(02:04):
Early warnings save lives. They're right since events like Cyclone Gabrielle,
behavior has changed. People take warning, serious emergency managements, act earlier,
and in many cases that's the preparedness that we absolutely
want and prevent stragedy. That's a good thing. But is

(02:27):
there a tipping point? Because every weather system is treated
like it could be catastrophic, something else starts to happen.
People stop going out, businesses take a hit. Events lose momentum,
and slowly, quietly it affects the economy and it starts
to feel like it's clickbait for media. It starts to

(02:51):
feel like it's a build up days before. And here
is where it gets tricky. Because you don't want complacency.
You don't want people ignoring warnings when a genuine dangerous
system is coming. But you also don't want a country
that frees every time there's a bit of rain and
a bad forecast. We've seen the impacts, the infrastructure under pressure,

(03:13):
insurance costs rising, counsels facing huge bills for a resilience.
All of that is real, and all of that needs
to be taken seriously slong term thinking. But day to
day are we getting the balance right or are we
starting to default to the worst case scenario thinking everything

(03:35):
is going to be a catastrophe just in case. Because
if this is the new normal, if this is really
a cyclone season we're living with, then the way we
respond matters, such as the weather itself. So here's the
question I have this morning and after this weekend where

(03:57):
we were told the storm bat and down, go out
and get water, go out and get everything, go out
and sort things out. We've got a bit of rain.
Have we found the right balance between caution and overreaction
or are we, bit by bit, becoming the country that
shuts down far too easily. Should we be more cautious

(04:20):
of the boy who cried wolf situation in Wellington, because
that's the part that really scares me. Do we overreact
too quickly?

Speaker 1 (04:30):
For more from Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills, listen live
to news talks, It'd be Wellington from nine am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio