Nick Mills: Christopher Luxon should not step down as Prime Minister

OPINION: Luxon should not bow down to negative polls. 

What a weekend it’s been for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. 

And strangely enough, the whole situation really kicked off right here on this show on Friday morning with a little chat with Nicola Willis. 

The results of the poll were out, people were talking about miserable they were, the Nicola Willis interview kicked it off. 

It started the conversation again — a question about pressure and about how bad a poll has to be before a change in leadership is talked about — and then suddenly it grew legs.  

By the afternoon it was on national television, it was on Heather du Plessis-Allan’s show, and the Prime Minister himself was fronting it. 

And he said it clearly - he is absolutely not stepping down. 

Now I’ve got to tell you something honestly — all Friday afternoon I kept thinking to myself, good. I hope he doesn’t quit. 

Because look around the world right now. Everywhere you go, people are unhappy with the leader they’ve got.  

Why? Governments are being hammered by economic pressure, global instability, wars, the aftershocks of the pandemic, and recession.

It’s not exactly an easy time to be in charge of a country. 

The latest polling hasn’t been kind to Luxon.  

A Freshwater Strategy poll reported by The Post shows 51% of voters say he should be replaced as National Party leader, while only 36% believe he should stay.  

Now, another survey from Curia Market Research put the New Zealand National Party at 28.4% support, its lowest level under Luxon.

So yes, there’s pressure. 

But here’s the thing that really struck me over the weekend — most of that push for change isn’t coming from National voters. 

The polling shows 67% of National supporters still back Luxon, and 60% of ACT voters support him too.  

The loudest calls for him to go are coming from Labour, Green, and Te Pāti Māori supporters. 

Which raises a pretty obvious question. 

Why on earth would a governing party sack its leader because the opposition wants them gone? Of course they want them gone, they'' want anyone gone. 

And then we get into the horse-race stuff. If Luxon were pushed out, the poll says Chris Bishop would be the most preferred replacement on 18%, followed by Nicola Willis on 11%, Erica Stanford on 10%, and Mark Mitchell on 9%. 

But here’s my view. 

Changing Prime Minister in the middle of a tough economic recovery is exactly the kind of instability New Zealand does not need right now. 

We’ve come through COVID. We’ve been through inflation. We’ve had interest rates crushing households.  We've had a recession. We've had tariffs. 

Globally we’re watching wars in the Middle East and instability all over the world. 

This is not the moment for political musical chairs. 

So, my message to Christopher Luxon is pretty simple this morning. 

Don’t quit. 
Don’t wobble. 
Don’t let the noise get to you. 

I want you to - front up. Stand up. Be stronger. 

New Zealand doesn’t need another leadership drama right now. 

What it needs is steady leadership — even if it’s not perfect — while the country gets itself back on track. 

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talk said, be.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Now, let's just think about what sort of weekend you
have had? What sort of weekend I have had? Pretty
relaxed for me? Would it have been that relaxed for
Christopher Luxeen? Strangely enough, the whole situation really kicked on

(00:35):
right here on the show on Friday morning when were
a little chat with Nikola Willis, didn't it. I mean,
the results of the poll were out and people were
talking about how miserable and how bad they are, but
Nikola Willis pushed it to another level and it started
the conversation again. It put a question about the pressure
about how bad a poll has to be before change

(00:59):
your leadership has talked about. And then suddenly it grew
these legs. By the afternoon, it was on national television.
It was on Heather Duplice Allen's show. In the Prime
Minister fronted up himself and this morning he said, he
called either let me on, let me speak, considering standing
down absolutely not. And then he told Mike Costing again

(01:19):
this morning you will be the leader of the National
Party and therefore the Prime Minister up until election day
of November seven, hand on heart, hand on heart.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Absolutely.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Now, I've got to be really honest here. All Friday
afternoon I kept thinking to myself, I hope he doesn't quit.
I really hope he does not quit. Because if you
look around the world right now, everywhere you go, people
are unhappy with the leader they've got. Why well, governments
have been hammered by economic pressure, global instability, wars and

(01:53):
after shocks of the pandemic recessions. It's not exactly an
easy time to be in charge of a country, and
the latest polling hasn't been kind to Luxon the freshwater strategy.
Poll reported by The Post show fifty one percent of
voters say he should be replaced as National Party leader,

(02:14):
while only thirty six percent believe he should stay. Now.
Another survey from Curier Market Research put the New Zealand
National Party at twenty eight point four percent support, the
lowest level under Luxen and a very low level. So yes,

(02:35):
there's pressure, But the thing that really stuck to me
and stuck on me over the weekend, most of that
push for change isn't coming from national voters. The polling
showed that sixty seven percent of the national borters still
back lucksm and sixty percent of ACT voters also supported him.

(02:58):
I mean, the loudest calls for him to go are
coming from Labor Greens and Tapati Mari supporters, which raises
a pretty obvious question. Why on Earth would a governing
party sack its leader because the opposition wants them gone.
Of course they want them gone. You put anyone else in,

(03:19):
they'll want them gone. And then we go to the
horse racing stuff. If Luxem was pushed out, the polls
said Chris Bishop would be the most preferred replacement on
eighteen percent, followed by Nikola Willis on eleven percent, Erica
Stanford on ten percent, and Mark Mitchell on nine percent.
But here is my very clear view. Changing the Prime

(03:43):
minister in the middle of a tough economic recovery is
exactly the kind of instability New Zealand does not need
right now. We've come through COVID, we've been hit through
the inflation, we've had interest rates crushing households, we've had
a recession, we've had tariffs. Globally, we're watching wars and

(04:06):
in the Middle East and instability all over the world.
This is not the moment for political musical chairs, so
my message is really loud and clear. To Christopher Luxen,
it's pretty simple too. It's please don't quit, Please don't wobble,

(04:29):
Please don't let the noise get to you. I want
you to front up, stand up, be stronger. New Zealand
doesn't need another leadership drama right now. What it needs
is steady leadership, even if it's not perfect, while the
country gets itself back on track.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
For more from Wellington Mornings with Nick Mills, listen live
to news talks There'd be Wellington from nine am week days,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio