December 5, 2025 • 23 mins
Start a new streak! Join Joe Pisapia and Andrew Erickson for their best bets for NFL Week 14.
Can the Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) defend Duval County against the Indianapolis Colts? Do the Cleveland Browns (-3.5) defend the Miami Dolphins? Plus, will the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills clear 53.5 points (-110)?
The Pros build momentum heading down the stretch!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - 0:00:44
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets - 0:02:29
Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings - 0:05:15
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns - 0:06:24
Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills - 0:08:21
BettingPros Discord - 0:11:42
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers - 0:12:13
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 0:14:57
Hard Rock Best Bets of the Week - 0:18:15
Hard Rock Bet - 0:18:20
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Over 52.5 - 0:19:23
Cleveland Browns -3.5 vs. Tennessee Titans - 0:19:50
Joe’s Upset Special of the Week - 0:21:58
Parlay of the Week - 0:22:42
Outro - 0:23:01
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey P joe P Zapia and
this is BP NFL Andrew ericson the Undertaker and I
We're going to walk you through our favorite bets for
Week fourteen in the NFL. Don't forget to subscribe to
the channel. We love having you here with us every
single week. And last week pretty good combined seven wins
between the two of us, Andrew carrying the bulkomed he
(00:21):
was four and one, I was three and two. Pretty
good week for all of us here Andrew Erickson, the
Betting Pros Network, and of course we want everybody to
subscribe to the channel, but also we want you to
download the Betting Pros app, use the tools and prop
bet Chee Chee's out there saying game Parlay tool. All
the tools are out there on Betting Pros right now,
So no matter what device you have, download it and
start using the tools today. Sink your sports books for free. Andrew.
(00:44):
We got a lot going on this week, but you
know we've also got a very important game between the
Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts. It's the first one
I'm going to talk about. And it's been a long
time since the Colts have won in Jacksonville, so long
that I want to say. You were a senior in
highs cool perhaps the freshman in college somewhere around there.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Sophomore year at US University RWU Gohawks.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
As course, I'm gonna say. I know what the go
was for Roger Williams University, but you're the pride of
that university. I hope that they treat you well. Is
that your most famous alumni.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I'm just guessing he's asking for money because they know I.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Got That's it. Nice? Nice, All right, let's talk about
this because we mentioned it on the look Ahead Show
on Monday, and right now you're getting the Jacksonville Jaguars
plus two and a half minus one fifteen. That's the
best number you're seeing on the consensus at betting pros,
and look I have mentioned this on Monday show. I'll
(01:40):
just reiterate again briefly today. Jacksonville's kind of in control.
They did what they had to do last week and
the Colts lost, and now the Colts are gonna play
the Texans again later on the year and you have.
The Jaguars are gonna play the Titans twice, so they're
in a good spot right now where the Jacksonville Jaguars
can beat the Colts this week and roll this to
(02:00):
and I think they're going to do just that. I
think there's just something, you know, see, we see a
lot of teams sometimes, Andrew, that you know, get off
the great starts and then as the season starts to
drag gone, they start to pull back to the pack
a little bit. I feel like that's happening with the Colts.
I do think it will be a contested game, but
historically speaking, it's not on their side. And I like
the home underdog in division. We always like that matchup
every single time home underdogs in division. These teams know
(02:22):
each other very well. So give me the Jags in
this one, baby. I would even sprinkle the money line here.
I'm not afraid of it at all. Andrew, you're a
brave man because your first bet has to do with
the Jets. Jets, Jets, Jets, let's talk about it.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Work last week, Jets on the money line against Kirk
Cousins Outdoors. Trust the process, except this time it's not
Kirk cousins that we're going to bet against outdoors in December.
It's tua in this Miami Dolphins team that traditionally does
not play well on the road in December. They beat
up on bad teams, and the Jets are a bad team,
but it's when they're playing at home in Miami or
(02:56):
in a dome somewhere. So looking at matchup, I mean, Joe,
you want to bet on the Dolphins this week? No?
Speaker 1 (03:02):
No, I do not.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
So that means I have to bet on the other team,
and it just happened to be the Jets. But look,
the Jets have played inspired football over the last couple
of weeks. Tyro Taylor has played really well. He's three
and against the spread his three starts this season. The
Jets have covered the spread in four of their last
five games. Not really sure how they're doing it exactly
because they don't really have a ton of talent, but
Aaron Glenn maybe has these guys bought in. And you
(03:24):
know what reminds me a lot of is Dan Campbell
his rookie year as the head coach of the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Terrible to start the year.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
I don't think they had a single win but in
that second half, they just started to cover game after
game after game and now you look up, the Lions
since Dan Campbell took over after that second half, have
the best record against the spread in all of NFL
all football. So I think we're starting to see that
a little bit here from Aaron Glenn and any opportunity
I get to bet against Miami playing on the road
(03:52):
in December, I want to do that. They've lost five
of the last six road games. The last time we
saw them play outdoors in the weather, it was my
best bet of the week, the Cleveland Browns. They lost
thirty one to six. They got absolutely smoked and eventually,
Joe the Jets are going to get an interception, like
it's going to happen at I think it's happening this week.
(04:13):
I think Tua is gonna get picked off this week.
He's played in New York two times in his career,
total three interceptions, and both those games were played in
late November. So I like that matchup here. And when
you look at what two has done splits in terms
of zone coverage versus man coverage, He's faced the most
zone coverage of any quarterback this season and he's been
really bad against it. He's thrown all fourteen of his
(04:34):
interceptions against zone coverage. Now, when you look at the Jets,
they've played mostly man coverage. That's what Aaron Gunn does.
That's what he did in Detroit's what he's done with
the Jets for the most part. But since they traded
Sauce Gardener, they've at least shown the idea of in
a couple of their matchups recently weeks eleven and Week twelve,
nineteen percent man coverage, twenty four percent man coverage. So
they have been open to the idea of, hey, let's
(04:55):
play a little bit more zone without sauce Gardner. If
they can make those adjustments, I think they can take
advantage pick off two here, So Aaron Gunny for watching this,
just drop back and zone and let two of them
make the mistakes because he's going to do it. So
therefore I'm on the Jets. Here gets plus three, justs
plus two and a half, just money line, give me Yang.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Green, all right? Give me for my next pick here
the Washington Commanders plus two and a half over the
Minnesota Vikings. I think the Vikings are just flat out
quit the Brosma situation last week was untenable, and now
you're back with JJ McCarthy, and McCarthy's turned over the
football a lot too. Justin Jefferson seems miserable. I think
everybody in Minnesota is miserable. There's such nice people out there.
(05:35):
It's so cold, you know, and now the Vikings are
not giving them anything to keep them warm. Here, it's
just cold des ice in Minnesota. It's cold his ice
in that locker room, and it feels like everything is
just done for the Minnesota Vikings. Now. I don't let
me be clear, I don't love the Washington Commanders. This
is not a ringing endorsement of the Commanders by any
stretch of means. But they did compete quite a bit
(05:56):
Sundayna football against never Broncos. They push them all the
way to overtime, so you got to give them some
credit there. They haven't folded up the tents. So there's
bad teams that fold up the tents and disappear, like
the Vikings, and then there's ones that play it out
and give you effort. And dan Quinn, I think, is
still going to get effort out of the Washington Commanders.
I think they're trying to save a little face here
at the end of the season for a disappointing year
that had more expectations. So I'll take the Washington Commanders
(06:20):
on the road with the points here and this contest
next up. Last week we were both on Cleveland. It
looked good for about three quarters and then it all
fell apart in the fourth. So Andrew ericson, you're a
brave man. You're going back to it again this week.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Because three and a half points is not enough points
when you're facing the Tennessee Titans for the first time
on the road. They haven't played a road game since
Week eight, and so though they've had some moments here
where it looks like, hey, they're taking a step forward,
I think it's going to all come crashing down when
Miles Garrett looks at that offensive line, looks at a
rookie quarterback who's going to hold into the football, and says, hey,
(06:55):
I can break the sack record today here in Week fourteen.
So I love the Browns defense in the spot back
at home. Traditionally, this is where they have one of
the best home field advantages. I get that last week
didn't work out, but that wasn't really the Defensi's fault.
It wasn't even really the Offensi's fault. You look at
what happened. It was all those special teams miscues by
the Cleveland Browns, forty nine ers three touchdown drives they
(07:17):
started at the Browns sixteen yard line, thirty two yard line,
and eighteen yard line. Like, that's the reason why the
Browns fell apart in that game against the forty nine ers,
and again didn't know if they were to necessarily win,
but they had a chance to cover. It was a
special team that really kind of threw things out of
whack for them. So I like buying the dip here
back on Cleveland. I don't think that three and a
half points is enough. The Titans have covered plus three
(07:40):
and a half twice this season. Basically, unless you're getting
a touchdown with the Tennessee Titans, I want no part
of betting them in any capacity against any team in
the NFL. So give me the Cleveland Browns, give me
Miles Garrett, give me the Browns at home, and give
me a little Schauldar Sanders swagger again. Everyone said that
Camwore was the better quarterback than Shauldur Sanders was beside
the fact that they were kind of viewed as those
(08:01):
top quarterbacks obviously did not work out that way in
terms of how they drafted. I think they should ask
something to stay here. I think that he wants to
show out, and I think that he knows he has
the better team. It's reasons why they're favorite. So give
me the Browns lane three and a half.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
A lot of games with the Browns are favorites this year.
It's also don't look now, should or but the practice
windows getting open for Deshaun Watson. So yikes. All right,
let's talk about this next one here, and it is
one that I think any of us are hard pressed
to not think. It's going to be an over. The
consentus lines moved a little bit. It was fifty one
on Monday. We love the over. Then it's moved to
(08:33):
fifty two, to fifty three and some other spots and
a half. I don't care, still going over, so let's
go on fifty two and a half. Let's cut it
in the middle for the over Cincinnati Buffalo. Neither of
these defenses excite me at all. I don't care what
Buffalo did against the Steelers last week. The Steelers are
predictable and boring, and the quarterback plays uPAR period end
of story, and Joe Burrow's back, and Joe Burrow is
playing fast and loose because he has nothing to lose
(08:54):
and everything to gain and it doesn't matter. And there
is something very freeing about Joe Burrow in that kind
of sity situation. No, the Cincinnati Bengals are not making
the playoffs this year, folks. I don't care anybody tells me.
The path ahead of them is so ridiculous, I'm not
even gonna entertain it. But as Joe Burrow said, if
there's football, we played on playing football, and he can
(09:15):
go out there and stick it to the Buffalo Bills
on the way out, stick it to Baltimore Ravens on
the way out. That sounds like a very Joe Burrow
kind of thing to do. And hopefully next year, with
better help, maybe the Cincinnati Bengals will rebound. But I
like the over in this game. I can't. I think
you could set this at sixty and I probably still
like the over. I think both teams are going well
into the thirties. The Bengals defense is atrocious. The Bills
(09:36):
defense is not much better, and you have two quarterbacks.
You know, Joe Burrow playing fast and loose as I mentioned,
but Josh Allen playing with a lot to play for
the seasons on the line and the division two because
if you lose, Patriots aren't a buye. That's it, folks,
that's it. That's the division. AFC East is over. Andrew,
you'ran on this one too, So you give me your
thoughts on the over ian Buffalo Cincinnati.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Yeah, I mean, Buffalo has to find a way to
win this game because it's gonna make winning the division
for the AFC East for the Patriots way less sweet
if they just get it by default next week, like
I want them to have to beat Buffalo, lock it
in and in the press conference they're all wearing the
the what is it the shirt and jersey game, the
shirt and t shirt game where they get the the
AFC East Championships where it should be in New England.
But that's for Week fifteen. Betting back to this matchup here.
(10:20):
It's so interesting because when you look at when the
Bengals and Bills have played last five games, five straight unders.
Now that's not a case for me. Where oh well,
here's a trend. It's oh no, we are due, like
we are due for this trend to break regression, to
hit to come to a mean, and I think that
happens in this particular matchup. So I'm right there with
you with the over Bills games at home have traditionally
gone towards the over. Fifteen of the last nineteen home
(10:43):
games have gone over the total. And then the Bengals,
we know that their defense is absolutely terrible, even though
they have improved over the last couple weeks against guys
like Lamar Jackson and Drake May. I don't think that
really matters. Josh Allen at home with Buffalo, Delton kin
Kaid has a chance to come back. It looks like
Buffalo could get a couple key pieces beat on their
offensive line. Kincaid has a chance to play. He was
practicing in limited capacity earlier in the week. We know
(11:05):
that the Bengals are one of the worst defense at
guarding tight ends, so I think that's a big boost
for offensive scoring from the Buffalo Bill side, and again
the Bill's defense. More injuries, Joey Bosa, what do you know?
He's injured again. Treel Bernard another guy who's dealing with
an injury. So just too many expulsive weapons on both sides,
especially if we do get T Higgins to clear the
concussion protocol again, I think that we're gonna see sixty
(11:28):
points in this game. So it's just gonna keep moving up.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Look, I like the hats and the T shirts and
all that. As a Patriots fan, I don't care. I
want them to lose. I want to win the division.
Everyone can just get a male to their front door
on Monday morning, That's fine by me, all right. Before
we get to our next picks, and of course, don't forget,
we got our picks of the week as well as
the parlay block picks of the week coming up for you.
We've also got our discord bettingpros dot Com, slash Chat.
(11:51):
It's free, it's fun, it's NBA, it's NFL. Major League
Baseball probably around the corner too the next couple of months.
If you're a big baseball better, you're gonna want to
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It's props. If it's live betting, we can help you
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Discord Again, you can join for free at bettingpros dot
com slash chat. Next up for me and my pick
(12:14):
number four. Look, I took the Bears last week very
much on them. Not only did they cover the seven
against the Eagles, they won out right, because that's what
the Bears do. They played close games, and you know what,
They're gonna play another close game, I think against the
green Bay Packers. I know green Bay went into Detroit
on Thanksgiving and came out with a big, fat W.
But I think that the Chicago Bears, like they do
(12:35):
every single game, We'll find a way to keep it close.
I just think six and a half is just too
many points. So give me the Chicago Bears. Do I
love them to win this game? No? But then again,
you can say that every week about the Bears, and
every week they keep winning because they were a number
one seed, So what the hell do we know? Look,
it's just there is a core problem at the base
of the Bears, and it's still Cale Williams isn't doing
(12:58):
everything as well as he could, and you could tell
from the coaches comments sometimes he's still not thrilled with
some of the things that Caleb Williams isn't doing as
well as he should, and I think that is where
that disconnect to that confidence level comes from me. But
I still think they can hang with the Green Bay Packers.
And you know, there's still the underdogs despite the fact
that they're at the top of that division. Yes it's
(13:18):
on the road, Yes it's in Green Bay. I don't care.
As long as kamanan guy is healthy too. I feel
good about the Chicago Bears cover that six and a half.
Andrew Ericksson, you're in on this game too, but what's
your approach?
Speaker 2 (13:30):
I agree that the Bears is the side I like
as well, and what we find is when we're on
the side of the underdog, it's usually results in games
that are lower scoring.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
Right.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
So I see this total at forty five and a
half points, and I look at how good the Packers
defense is played at home this season. There's been no
games that have gone over the total in Lanbefield this
year five and one towards the total this season thirty
four point two points per game total played in Green Bay.
And this is dating back from last year too, including
twenty twenty four, four ten and one over under, So
(14:03):
I think forty five and a half points is way
too much. Again, you just outlined all the issues with
Kayleb Williams. Okay, the Packers don't give up explosive place
like that's like the number one thing that they do defensively.
He's like, no, we're not gonna give a big place.
So what do the Bears want to do? Hey, we
want to keep things tight, give us a chance to
win in the fourth quarter, you know, generate one big run,
one big play. Again, Caleb Williams, I get that it's
been frustrating, but you see when he makes some of
(14:24):
these offscar plays that you see the talent in the upside.
He just has to hit on one or two of
those big plays, make one or more plays than Jordan
Love does, and that's how the Bears can kind of
come away either with the upset here or obviously covering
the plus six and a half. But regardless, I think
that if the Bears enter this game with a run
heavy mindset, which is how they've had so much success
in beating of these these beating teams as an underdog,
(14:45):
keeping things tight, that's just not gonna result on a
ton of scoring. So I like the under here in
this game that I think is gonna be much closer,
kind of like what you said. So the best bet
for me is under forty five and a half total points.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
All right, let's get to our last of our five
favorite bets for the week. And I'm going to Kansas
City on this one. And you know what, I think
it's going to surprise in people. I'll give me the
Houston Texans plus three and a half. Chiefs can't run
the football, may have all kinds of issues there, and
historically speaking, the Texans aren't afraid of the Chiefs. I know.
You can look at the scores from last year, right
(15:18):
that December game they played twenty seven to nineteen Chiefs win,
but Texans fought real hard in that game. That was
also a game that had some major injuries in it
as well. Then you have that January game that they
played in the playoffs in twenty twenty five where the
Chiefs won twenty three to fourteen, and again close. Right,
we're talking about teams that you know are not intimidated.
(15:38):
You know, they have nothing to lose. Texans very much
fighting for their life in the playoffs, just like the Chiefs.
All the narrative is about the Chiefs fighting for the
playoffs and Chiefs fighting for their birth. The Texans are
in a better pole position to make the playoffs than
the Chiefs are, okay, and nobody's talking about that. Nobody's
talking about their motivation. Dimiko Ryans is a really good
head coach. That defense is ferocious, they're free. I think
(16:01):
the window for the Chiefs again, we always talk about
it every single year, Andrew the team that loses the
Super Bowl, especially when you lose it in epic fashion,
the next year does not go well. It's not going
well for the Chiefs. Last year, all the close games
broke their way. This year, all the close games are
not breaking their way. And I know it's in Kansas City,
and that's why you're seeing the three and a half.
Which makes me wonder if this game was in Houston,
what this line might be. And that to me tells
(16:22):
me a lot, because theoretically this should be more like
five and a half. Right, If this is the Kansas
City Chiefs that are so good that we still believe in,
that could be a playoff team. But it ain't. It's
three and a half, and to me, that tells you
everything you need to know. I want to be on
the Textans side of this football game. You've got some
feelings about this one too, Let's share them with the.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
People, kind of doing the same thing I talked about
with the Packers and the Bears. I do like the
underdog in this spot, but it's Kansas City, it's Patrick
Mahomes at home, and it's the Chiefs with extra time
to rest because they've had they played on Thanksgiving, and
that does scare me, especially because the Texans also had
been really bad at covering games when like playing with
the rest of disadvantag so avoiding the sides here at
(17:02):
least at the plus three and a half line and
instead just taking the under. Again, going back to what
does Kansas City do at home? Played games towards the under,
one in five towards the over this season at Arrowhead,
the last four home games have all done under the
projected total. Six of the seven last game for the
Chiefs have gone under the totally. Only over was against
the Dallas Cowboys, who we know are one of the
(17:22):
teams that just invites and creates chaos and offensive environments
for scoring. I think an interesting trend that I looked
at this year. It reminds me a lot of the
thing that we talked about a couple of years ago
with the Honolulu Flu, where it was like, oh, teams
face the lines, they don't cover the spread the next week.
When we look at Dallas teams the week after they
play the Dallas Cowboys, which is always a game where
there's a ton of points two, one, and eight towards
(17:45):
the over the following week. So I think that you're
going to see this Chiefs offense come back to earth
a little bit. You're not going to see Mahomes throw
over four passing touchdowns, especially when he's not missing one,
not missing two. Three offensive linemen against this fierce Texan
defensive line. I love the under in this game at
forty two points at Airhead.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
What else did the Chiefs do, by the way, on Thanksgiving?
Andrew to remind me they lost? That's right, that's the
other thing the Chiefs did on Thanksgiving? Just putting that
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Speaker 1 (19:23):
And Andrew Erickson. I will kick things off here with
my favorite bet of the week, and it is the
over on the Cincinnati Bengals. That's where I'm going with
this one. Again. It's moved from fifty one and a
half to fifty three and a half in some spots.
Let's call fifty two and a half because I see
that in a couple locations still on Betting Pros. So
give me the fifty two and a half over Cincinnati
and Buffalo because not a lot of defense, two quarterbacks
(19:45):
who play fast and loose, and I think we're gonna
have some fun. This will be a very entertaining game.
It will not disappoint Andrew Erickson, What is your favorite
bet for Week fourteen?
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Going right back to my most bet team in November
per my Betting Pros recap, you know all the Spotify
raps coming out here in December, Well, right, go check
out your betting Pros wrapped. Figure out what happened in November.
I had a down month. It was not profitable for me,
sad face, but my most bet team was the Cleveland Browns,
So I'm staying true to what I think works betting
(20:15):
on the Browns at home against a rookie quarterback making
his first road start since Week eight. He look the
Browns over their last twenty two home games fourteen and
eight against the spread sixty four percent. That is the
best record against the spread at home. Nobody knows home
field to manage more than the dog pound. Give me
the Browns lane three and a half against Cammore.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
By the way, what was your Spotify age? Mine was
pretty close to mine. It was two years older than me.
It was like forty nine or whoever it was. I
was like, okay, that's about my age. What was yours?
Some people I see are getting like they're eighty five
years old. I imagine you're close to that.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
It's because those people are listening to audio books, probably.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Stupid book learning I read. I was for I was
forty four. I was forty four. There you go. Ah, yeah,
because I was.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
To know a lot of like early nineties eighties rock stuff,
especially like when I exercise and work out.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
So that's that's influencing the forty.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Four So not up like sixty five seventy, which I'm
kind of happy I wasn't put into that group, so
I was.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
I was fine with forty four. Yeah, a lot of
nineties for me still. It's a little bit of eighty
sprinkled in there, but a lot of nineties, a lot
of old school hip hop in there, a lot of
still you know, the old school grunge stuff. Still my
sound Garden to my house and chains like, I'm never
just I'm never getting rid of that. But I also
have two teenage daughters in the house and sometimes they
use my Spotify in the car, which I think collectively
(21:35):
brought my age down, you know, with the tailor Swift
and the Cone of Grays and the Chapel Runs and
all that.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Curious what I have to imagine DeBras was like sixteen
year old because it's all the grudge, all the scream, oh,
all that type of music that he listens to. It's like, you're, yeah,
you're into this, like you're sixteen seventeen. That's your Spotify age.
Need no debrood, someone get him on this.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Yeah, I'll ask him today on the livestream on Fantasy Pro.
See what is all right? So let's go to the
upset of the week. I'm five and eight. Boy, we
were rough there for a while, but I've been on
a roll with the upset special. That's two weeks in
a row with the upset special. I want to keep
this ball rolling here, and we're gonna go with the
Jacksonville Jaguars on the money line against Indianapolis plus one
fifteen high you goin, let's go. I was tempted with Washington,
(22:16):
but again it's always just it's Washington at the end
of the day. And look, I think Jacksonville's in the
pole position. New coach. Sometimes you just got to shake
things up Pittsburgh. Sometimes you just gotta shake things up,
you know, fresh voice, new things. It's good for everybody,
but Jacksonville Jaguars, I think on the money line is
the way I want to go. Hopefully. Look, if I
can get to five hundred this year with upset specials,
(22:37):
that's pretty good. Upset specials not easy, and every single
week I got to pick one of them. And if
you put our best bets of the week together, everybody
the fifty two and a half from the Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills game and Andrew Erickson's minus three and a
half for the Browns against Tennessee at home this week
against the Titans, you get plus two to fifty. So
that's the parlay of the week, or up to four
(22:58):
of those so far. So maybe we'll get to and
if you want more parlays, make sure you stay tune
here on the channel. Subscribe, bring that belt that goes
in because the parlay show is right around the corner.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll
see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey P joe P Zapia and
this is BP NFL Andrew ericson the Undertaker and I
We're going to walk you through our favorite bets for
Week fourteen in the NFL. Don't forget to subscribe to
the channel. We love having you here with us every
single week. And last week pretty good combined seven wins
between the two of us, Andrew carrying the bulkomed he
(00:21):
was four and one, I was three and two. Pretty
good week for all of us here Andrew Erickson, the
Betting Pros Network, and of course we want everybody to
subscribe to the channel, but also we want you to
download the Betting Pros app, use the tools and prop
bet Chee Chee's out there saying game Parlay tool. All
the tools are out there on Betting Pros right now,
So no matter what device you have, download it and
start using the tools today. Sink your sports books for free. Andrew.
(00:44):
We got a lot going on this week, but you
know we've also got a very important game between the
Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts. It's the first one
I'm going to talk about. And it's been a long
time since the Colts have won in Jacksonville, so long
that I want to say. You were a senior in
highs cool perhaps the freshman in college somewhere around there.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Sophomore year at US University RWU Gohawks.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
As course, I'm gonna say. I know what the go
was for Roger Williams University, but you're the pride of
that university. I hope that they treat you well. Is
that your most famous alumni.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I'm just guessing he's asking for money because they know I.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Got That's it. Nice? Nice, All right, let's talk about
this because we mentioned it on the look Ahead Show
on Monday, and right now you're getting the Jacksonville Jaguars
plus two and a half minus one fifteen. That's the
best number you're seeing on the consensus at betting pros,
and look I have mentioned this on Monday show. I'll
(01:40):
just reiterate again briefly today. Jacksonville's kind of in control.
They did what they had to do last week and
the Colts lost, and now the Colts are gonna play
the Texans again later on the year and you have.
The Jaguars are gonna play the Titans twice, so they're
in a good spot right now where the Jacksonville Jaguars
can beat the Colts this week and roll this to
(02:00):
and I think they're going to do just that. I
think there's just something, you know, see, we see a
lot of teams sometimes, Andrew, that you know, get off
the great starts and then as the season starts to
drag gone, they start to pull back to the pack
a little bit. I feel like that's happening with the Colts.
I do think it will be a contested game, but
historically speaking, it's not on their side. And I like
the home underdog in division. We always like that matchup
every single time home underdogs in division. These teams know
(02:22):
each other very well. So give me the Jags in
this one, baby. I would even sprinkle the money line here.
I'm not afraid of it at all. Andrew, you're a
brave man because your first bet has to do with
the Jets. Jets, Jets, Jets, let's talk about it.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Work last week, Jets on the money line against Kirk
Cousins Outdoors. Trust the process, except this time it's not
Kirk cousins that we're going to bet against outdoors in December.
It's tua in this Miami Dolphins team that traditionally does
not play well on the road in December. They beat
up on bad teams, and the Jets are a bad team,
but it's when they're playing at home in Miami or
(02:56):
in a dome somewhere. So looking at matchup, I mean, Joe,
you want to bet on the Dolphins this week? No?
Speaker 1 (03:02):
No, I do not.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
So that means I have to bet on the other team,
and it just happened to be the Jets. But look,
the Jets have played inspired football over the last couple
of weeks. Tyro Taylor has played really well. He's three
and against the spread his three starts this season. The
Jets have covered the spread in four of their last
five games. Not really sure how they're doing it exactly
because they don't really have a ton of talent, but
Aaron Glenn maybe has these guys bought in. And you
(03:24):
know what reminds me a lot of is Dan Campbell
his rookie year as the head coach of the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Terrible to start the year.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
I don't think they had a single win but in
that second half, they just started to cover game after
game after game and now you look up, the Lions
since Dan Campbell took over after that second half, have
the best record against the spread in all of NFL
all football. So I think we're starting to see that
a little bit here from Aaron Glenn and any opportunity
I get to bet against Miami playing on the road
(03:52):
in December, I want to do that. They've lost five
of the last six road games. The last time we
saw them play outdoors in the weather, it was my
best bet of the week, the Cleveland Browns. They lost
thirty one to six. They got absolutely smoked and eventually,
Joe the Jets are going to get an interception, like
it's going to happen at I think it's happening this week.
(04:13):
I think Tua is gonna get picked off this week.
He's played in New York two times in his career,
total three interceptions, and both those games were played in
late November. So I like that matchup here. And when
you look at what two has done splits in terms
of zone coverage versus man coverage, He's faced the most
zone coverage of any quarterback this season and he's been
really bad against it. He's thrown all fourteen of his
(04:34):
interceptions against zone coverage. Now, when you look at the Jets,
they've played mostly man coverage. That's what Aaron Gunn does.
That's what he did in Detroit's what he's done with
the Jets for the most part. But since they traded
Sauce Gardener, they've at least shown the idea of in
a couple of their matchups recently weeks eleven and Week twelve,
nineteen percent man coverage, twenty four percent man coverage. So
they have been open to the idea of, hey, let's
(04:55):
play a little bit more zone without sauce Gardner. If
they can make those adjustments, I think they can take
advantage pick off two here, So Aaron Gunny for watching this,
just drop back and zone and let two of them
make the mistakes because he's going to do it. So
therefore I'm on the Jets. Here gets plus three, justs
plus two and a half, just money line, give me Yang.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Green, all right? Give me for my next pick here
the Washington Commanders plus two and a half over the
Minnesota Vikings. I think the Vikings are just flat out
quit the Brosma situation last week was untenable, and now
you're back with JJ McCarthy, and McCarthy's turned over the
football a lot too. Justin Jefferson seems miserable. I think
everybody in Minnesota is miserable. There's such nice people out there.
(05:35):
It's so cold, you know, and now the Vikings are
not giving them anything to keep them warm. Here, it's
just cold des ice in Minnesota. It's cold his ice
in that locker room, and it feels like everything is
just done for the Minnesota Vikings. Now. I don't let
me be clear, I don't love the Washington Commanders. This
is not a ringing endorsement of the Commanders by any
stretch of means. But they did compete quite a bit
(05:56):
Sundayna football against never Broncos. They push them all the
way to overtime, so you got to give them some
credit there. They haven't folded up the tents. So there's
bad teams that fold up the tents and disappear, like
the Vikings, and then there's ones that play it out
and give you effort. And dan Quinn, I think, is
still going to get effort out of the Washington Commanders.
I think they're trying to save a little face here
at the end of the season for a disappointing year
that had more expectations. So I'll take the Washington Commanders
(06:20):
on the road with the points here and this contest
next up. Last week we were both on Cleveland. It
looked good for about three quarters and then it all
fell apart in the fourth. So Andrew ericson, you're a
brave man. You're going back to it again this week.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
Because three and a half points is not enough points
when you're facing the Tennessee Titans for the first time
on the road. They haven't played a road game since
Week eight, and so though they've had some moments here
where it looks like, hey, they're taking a step forward,
I think it's going to all come crashing down when
Miles Garrett looks at that offensive line, looks at a
rookie quarterback who's going to hold into the football, and says, hey,
(06:55):
I can break the sack record today here in Week fourteen.
So I love the Browns defense in the spot back
at home. Traditionally, this is where they have one of
the best home field advantages. I get that last week
didn't work out, but that wasn't really the Defensi's fault.
It wasn't even really the Offensi's fault. You look at
what happened. It was all those special teams miscues by
the Cleveland Browns, forty nine ers three touchdown drives they
(07:17):
started at the Browns sixteen yard line, thirty two yard line,
and eighteen yard line. Like, that's the reason why the
Browns fell apart in that game against the forty nine ers,
and again didn't know if they were to necessarily win,
but they had a chance to cover. It was a
special team that really kind of threw things out of
whack for them. So I like buying the dip here
back on Cleveland. I don't think that three and a
half points is enough. The Titans have covered plus three
(07:40):
and a half twice this season. Basically, unless you're getting
a touchdown with the Tennessee Titans, I want no part
of betting them in any capacity against any team in
the NFL. So give me the Cleveland Browns, give me
Miles Garrett, give me the Browns at home, and give
me a little Schauldar Sanders swagger again. Everyone said that
Camwore was the better quarterback than Shauldur Sanders was beside
the fact that they were kind of viewed as those
(08:01):
top quarterbacks obviously did not work out that way in
terms of how they drafted. I think they should ask
something to stay here. I think that he wants to
show out, and I think that he knows he has
the better team. It's reasons why they're favorite. So give
me the Browns lane three and a half.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
A lot of games with the Browns are favorites this year.
It's also don't look now, should or but the practice
windows getting open for Deshaun Watson. So yikes. All right,
let's talk about this next one here, and it is
one that I think any of us are hard pressed
to not think. It's going to be an over. The
consentus lines moved a little bit. It was fifty one
on Monday. We love the over. Then it's moved to
(08:33):
fifty two, to fifty three and some other spots and
a half. I don't care, still going over, so let's
go on fifty two and a half. Let's cut it
in the middle for the over Cincinnati Buffalo. Neither of
these defenses excite me at all. I don't care what
Buffalo did against the Steelers last week. The Steelers are
predictable and boring, and the quarterback plays uPAR period end
of story, and Joe Burrow's back, and Joe Burrow is
playing fast and loose because he has nothing to lose
(08:54):
and everything to gain and it doesn't matter. And there
is something very freeing about Joe Burrow in that kind
of sity situation. No, the Cincinnati Bengals are not making
the playoffs this year, folks. I don't care anybody tells me.
The path ahead of them is so ridiculous, I'm not
even gonna entertain it. But as Joe Burrow said, if
there's football, we played on playing football, and he can
(09:15):
go out there and stick it to the Buffalo Bills
on the way out, stick it to Baltimore Ravens on
the way out. That sounds like a very Joe Burrow
kind of thing to do. And hopefully next year, with
better help, maybe the Cincinnati Bengals will rebound. But I
like the over in this game. I can't. I think
you could set this at sixty and I probably still
like the over. I think both teams are going well
into the thirties. The Bengals defense is atrocious. The Bills
(09:36):
defense is not much better, and you have two quarterbacks.
You know, Joe Burrow playing fast and loose as I mentioned,
but Josh Allen playing with a lot to play for
the seasons on the line and the division two because
if you lose, Patriots aren't a buye. That's it, folks,
that's it. That's the division. AFC East is over. Andrew,
you'ran on this one too, So you give me your
thoughts on the over ian Buffalo Cincinnati.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Yeah, I mean, Buffalo has to find a way to
win this game because it's gonna make winning the division
for the AFC East for the Patriots way less sweet
if they just get it by default next week, like
I want them to have to beat Buffalo, lock it
in and in the press conference they're all wearing the
the what is it the shirt and jersey game, the
shirt and t shirt game where they get the the
AFC East Championships where it should be in New England.
But that's for Week fifteen. Betting back to this matchup here.
(10:20):
It's so interesting because when you look at when the
Bengals and Bills have played last five games, five straight unders.
Now that's not a case for me. Where oh well,
here's a trend. It's oh no, we are due, like
we are due for this trend to break regression, to
hit to come to a mean, and I think that
happens in this particular matchup. So I'm right there with
you with the over Bills games at home have traditionally
gone towards the over. Fifteen of the last nineteen home
(10:43):
games have gone over the total. And then the Bengals,
we know that their defense is absolutely terrible, even though
they have improved over the last couple weeks against guys
like Lamar Jackson and Drake May. I don't think that
really matters. Josh Allen at home with Buffalo, Delton kin
Kaid has a chance to come back. It looks like
Buffalo could get a couple key pieces beat on their
offensive line. Kincaid has a chance to play. He was
practicing in limited capacity earlier in the week. We know
(11:05):
that the Bengals are one of the worst defense at
guarding tight ends, so I think that's a big boost
for offensive scoring from the Buffalo Bill side, and again
the Bill's defense. More injuries, Joey Bosa, what do you know?
He's injured again. Treel Bernard another guy who's dealing with
an injury. So just too many expulsive weapons on both sides,
especially if we do get T Higgins to clear the
concussion protocol again, I think that we're gonna see sixty
(11:28):
points in this game. So it's just gonna keep moving up.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Look, I like the hats and the T shirts and
all that. As a Patriots fan, I don't care. I
want them to lose. I want to win the division.
Everyone can just get a male to their front door
on Monday morning, That's fine by me, all right. Before
we get to our next picks, and of course, don't forget,
we got our picks of the week as well as
the parlay block picks of the week coming up for you.
We've also got our discord bettingpros dot Com, slash Chat.
(11:51):
It's free, it's fun, it's NBA, it's NFL. Major League
Baseball probably around the corner too the next couple of months.
If you're a big baseball better, you're gonna want to
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It's props. If it's live betting, we can help you
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Discord Again, you can join for free at bettingpros dot
com slash chat. Next up for me and my pick
(12:14):
number four. Look, I took the Bears last week very
much on them. Not only did they cover the seven
against the Eagles, they won out right, because that's what
the Bears do. They played close games, and you know what,
They're gonna play another close game, I think against the
green Bay Packers. I know green Bay went into Detroit
on Thanksgiving and came out with a big, fat W.
But I think that the Chicago Bears, like they do
(12:35):
every single game, We'll find a way to keep it close.
I just think six and a half is just too
many points. So give me the Chicago Bears. Do I
love them to win this game? No? But then again,
you can say that every week about the Bears, and
every week they keep winning because they were a number
one seed, So what the hell do we know? Look,
it's just there is a core problem at the base
of the Bears, and it's still Cale Williams isn't doing
(12:58):
everything as well as he could, and you could tell
from the coaches comments sometimes he's still not thrilled with
some of the things that Caleb Williams isn't doing as
well as he should, and I think that is where
that disconnect to that confidence level comes from me. But
I still think they can hang with the Green Bay Packers.
And you know, there's still the underdogs despite the fact
that they're at the top of that division. Yes it's
(13:18):
on the road, Yes it's in Green Bay. I don't care.
As long as kamanan guy is healthy too. I feel
good about the Chicago Bears cover that six and a half.
Andrew Ericksson, you're in on this game too, but what's
your approach?
Speaker 2 (13:30):
I agree that the Bears is the side I like
as well, and what we find is when we're on
the side of the underdog, it's usually results in games
that are lower scoring.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
Right.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
So I see this total at forty five and a
half points, and I look at how good the Packers
defense is played at home this season. There's been no
games that have gone over the total in Lanbefield this
year five and one towards the total this season thirty
four point two points per game total played in Green Bay.
And this is dating back from last year too, including
twenty twenty four, four ten and one over under, So
(14:03):
I think forty five and a half points is way
too much. Again, you just outlined all the issues with
Kayleb Williams. Okay, the Packers don't give up explosive place
like that's like the number one thing that they do defensively.
He's like, no, we're not gonna give a big place.
So what do the Bears want to do? Hey, we
want to keep things tight, give us a chance to
win in the fourth quarter, you know, generate one big run,
one big play. Again, Caleb Williams, I get that it's
been frustrating, but you see when he makes some of
(14:24):
these offscar plays that you see the talent in the upside.
He just has to hit on one or two of
those big plays, make one or more plays than Jordan
Love does, and that's how the Bears can kind of
come away either with the upset here or obviously covering
the plus six and a half. But regardless, I think
that if the Bears enter this game with a run
heavy mindset, which is how they've had so much success
in beating of these these beating teams as an underdog,
(14:45):
keeping things tight, that's just not gonna result on a
ton of scoring. So I like the under here in
this game that I think is gonna be much closer,
kind of like what you said. So the best bet
for me is under forty five and a half total points.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
All right, let's get to our last of our five
favorite bets for the week. And I'm going to Kansas
City on this one. And you know what, I think
it's going to surprise in people. I'll give me the
Houston Texans plus three and a half. Chiefs can't run
the football, may have all kinds of issues there, and
historically speaking, the Texans aren't afraid of the Chiefs. I know.
You can look at the scores from last year, right
(15:18):
that December game they played twenty seven to nineteen Chiefs win,
but Texans fought real hard in that game. That was
also a game that had some major injuries in it
as well. Then you have that January game that they
played in the playoffs in twenty twenty five where the
Chiefs won twenty three to fourteen, and again close. Right,
we're talking about teams that you know are not intimidated.
(15:38):
You know, they have nothing to lose. Texans very much
fighting for their life in the playoffs, just like the Chiefs.
All the narrative is about the Chiefs fighting for the
playoffs and Chiefs fighting for their birth. The Texans are
in a better pole position to make the playoffs than
the Chiefs are, okay, and nobody's talking about that. Nobody's
talking about their motivation. Dimiko Ryans is a really good
head coach. That defense is ferocious, they're free. I think
(16:01):
the window for the Chiefs again, we always talk about
it every single year, Andrew the team that loses the
Super Bowl, especially when you lose it in epic fashion,
the next year does not go well. It's not going
well for the Chiefs. Last year, all the close games
broke their way. This year, all the close games are
not breaking their way. And I know it's in Kansas City,
and that's why you're seeing the three and a half.
Which makes me wonder if this game was in Houston,
what this line might be. And that to me tells
(16:22):
me a lot, because theoretically this should be more like
five and a half. Right, If this is the Kansas
City Chiefs that are so good that we still believe in,
that could be a playoff team. But it ain't. It's
three and a half, and to me, that tells you
everything you need to know. I want to be on
the Textans side of this football game. You've got some
feelings about this one too, Let's share them with the.
Speaker 2 (16:40):
People, kind of doing the same thing I talked about
with the Packers and the Bears. I do like the
underdog in this spot, but it's Kansas City, it's Patrick
Mahomes at home, and it's the Chiefs with extra time
to rest because they've had they played on Thanksgiving, and
that does scare me, especially because the Texans also had
been really bad at covering games when like playing with
the rest of disadvantag so avoiding the sides here at
(17:02):
least at the plus three and a half line and
instead just taking the under. Again, going back to what
does Kansas City do at home? Played games towards the under,
one in five towards the over this season at Arrowhead,
the last four home games have all done under the
projected total. Six of the seven last game for the
Chiefs have gone under the totally. Only over was against
the Dallas Cowboys, who we know are one of the
(17:22):
teams that just invites and creates chaos and offensive environments
for scoring. I think an interesting trend that I looked
at this year. It reminds me a lot of the
thing that we talked about a couple of years ago
with the Honolulu Flu, where it was like, oh, teams
face the lines, they don't cover the spread the next week.
When we look at Dallas teams the week after they
play the Dallas Cowboys, which is always a game where
there's a ton of points two, one, and eight towards
(17:45):
the over the following week. So I think that you're
going to see this Chiefs offense come back to earth
a little bit. You're not going to see Mahomes throw
over four passing touchdowns, especially when he's not missing one,
not missing two. Three offensive linemen against this fierce Texan
defensive line. I love the under in this game at
forty two points at Airhead.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
What else did the Chiefs do, by the way, on Thanksgiving?
Andrew to remind me they lost? That's right, that's the
other thing the Chiefs did on Thanksgiving? Just putting that
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Speaker 1 (19:23):
And Andrew Erickson. I will kick things off here with
my favorite bet of the week, and it is the
over on the Cincinnati Bengals. That's where I'm going with
this one. Again. It's moved from fifty one and a
half to fifty three and a half in some spots.
Let's call fifty two and a half because I see
that in a couple locations still on Betting Pros. So
give me the fifty two and a half over Cincinnati
and Buffalo because not a lot of defense, two quarterbacks
(19:45):
who play fast and loose, and I think we're gonna
have some fun. This will be a very entertaining game.
It will not disappoint Andrew Erickson, What is your favorite
bet for Week fourteen?
Speaker 2 (19:53):
Going right back to my most bet team in November
per my Betting Pros recap, you know all the Spotify
raps coming out here in December, Well, right, go check
out your betting Pros wrapped. Figure out what happened in November.
I had a down month. It was not profitable for me,
sad face, but my most bet team was the Cleveland Browns,
So I'm staying true to what I think works betting
(20:15):
on the Browns at home against a rookie quarterback making
his first road start since Week eight. He look the
Browns over their last twenty two home games fourteen and
eight against the spread sixty four percent. That is the
best record against the spread at home. Nobody knows home
field to manage more than the dog pound. Give me
the Browns lane three and a half against Cammore.
Speaker 1 (20:35):
By the way, what was your Spotify age? Mine was
pretty close to mine. It was two years older than me.
It was like forty nine or whoever it was. I
was like, okay, that's about my age. What was yours?
Some people I see are getting like they're eighty five
years old. I imagine you're close to that.
Speaker 2 (20:49):
It's because those people are listening to audio books, probably.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Stupid book learning I read. I was for I was
forty four. I was forty four. There you go. Ah, yeah,
because I was.
Speaker 2 (21:02):
To know a lot of like early nineties eighties rock stuff,
especially like when I exercise and work out.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
So that's that's influencing the forty.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Four So not up like sixty five seventy, which I'm
kind of happy I wasn't put into that group, so
I was.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
I was fine with forty four. Yeah, a lot of
nineties for me still. It's a little bit of eighty
sprinkled in there, but a lot of nineties, a lot
of old school hip hop in there, a lot of
still you know, the old school grunge stuff. Still my
sound Garden to my house and chains like, I'm never
just I'm never getting rid of that. But I also
have two teenage daughters in the house and sometimes they
use my Spotify in the car, which I think collectively
(21:35):
brought my age down, you know, with the tailor Swift
and the Cone of Grays and the Chapel Runs and
all that.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Curious what I have to imagine DeBras was like sixteen
year old because it's all the grudge, all the scream, oh,
all that type of music that he listens to. It's like, you're, yeah,
you're into this, like you're sixteen seventeen. That's your Spotify age.
Need no debrood, someone get him on this.
Speaker 1 (21:55):
Yeah, I'll ask him today on the livestream on Fantasy Pro.
See what is all right? So let's go to the
upset of the week. I'm five and eight. Boy, we
were rough there for a while, but I've been on
a roll with the upset special. That's two weeks in
a row with the upset special. I want to keep
this ball rolling here, and we're gonna go with the
Jacksonville Jaguars on the money line against Indianapolis plus one
fifteen high you goin, let's go. I was tempted with Washington,
(22:16):
but again it's always just it's Washington at the end
of the day. And look, I think Jacksonville's in the
pole position. New coach. Sometimes you just got to shake
things up Pittsburgh. Sometimes you just gotta shake things up,
you know, fresh voice, new things. It's good for everybody,
but Jacksonville Jaguars, I think on the money line is
the way I want to go. Hopefully. Look, if I
can get to five hundred this year with upset specials,
(22:37):
that's pretty good. Upset specials not easy, and every single
week I got to pick one of them. And if
you put our best bets of the week together, everybody
the fifty two and a half from the Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills game and Andrew Erickson's minus three and a
half for the Browns against Tennessee at home this week
against the Titans, you get plus two to fifty. So
that's the parlay of the week, or up to four
(22:58):
of those so far. So maybe we'll get to and
if you want more parlays, make sure you stay tune
here on the channel. Subscribe, bring that belt that goes
in because the parlay show is right around the corner.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the
game goes on. For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. We'll
see you next time. Kids.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
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