January 20, 2026 • 31 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite bets to make in the conference championship round of the NFL playoffs!
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Would Sean McDermott have been fired if he made the Championship Game? - 0:00:55
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Conference championship episode?
He's Pat Fitzmorris. I'm apperold. We are on the Betting
Pros YouTube channel where we will be on Sunday as
well live. It's going to be a fun countdown to
kickoff as we will get into our prop bets and
more on Sunday. But for the two games that are happening,
(00:22):
the NFC and the AFC Championship games, Pat, it's going
to be an interesting weekend. We have three football games
left in the twenty five to twenty sixth season. How
are you doing well, Matt, Yeah, it is going to
be interesting.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Maybe it would have been a little more interesting either
if the Broncos had a healthy bon Knicks or if
the Buffalo Bills were able to win and set up
a Titanic AFC East showdown for the AFC Championship.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
You know, I think there's a couple things that we're
going to dive into the game. Obviously both games, and
we can kind of look at the Bonex situation and
the injury, but just to kind of take a look
back at the Sean McDermott situation, do you think Sean
mcder Let's say he did get into the championship game
and he lost at New England. Like the Patriots beat
the Bills in the AFC Championship game. Do you think
(01:09):
the Bills still fires on McDermott. That's a good question.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
I'm not sure why McDermott was the one who, you know,
had to fall on the sword here and not Brandon Bean.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
You know, they promoted him, they gave him a ring,
he got a promotion.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
It's not like McDermott was the one responsible for Josh
Allen throwing to Brandon Cooks and you know, Tyrrell Shavers
and all these guys in the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Like, I don't know, I'm.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Maybe they would have because I'm sure Bill's fans feel
like they're on the treadmill here, and how frustrating it
has to be for them to not get to a
super Bowl at the height of Josh Allen's powers. I
totally get that, but I am kind of surprised that
it's McDermott alone taking the fall.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So Josh Allen's twenty nine years old. If the Patriots
win on Sunday and make the Super Bowl, Drake may
will have made a super Bowl in two years before.
Josh Allen has made a super Bowl during his entire
tenure in the NFL. It is remarkable, and it really
is Patrick Mahomes's fault. Like, if you want to look
at why John Harbaugh and why Sean McDermott both got fired,
(02:20):
it's because in the year that Mahomes was not good
and not in the playoffs, neither Lamar Jackson nor Josh
Allen will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and
thus both teams decide to fire their longtime head coach.
Eighteen years for John Harbaugh, nine years for Sean McDermott.
But I also think you can't underestimate the moving into
(02:42):
the new stadium as to how that was going to
affect the Bills. That if you go in there after
a championship, or you go in there after a Super
Bowl appearance or something of a high note, and it's like, Okay,
we're really close, and now the new stadium and all
this new excitement. I understand why the Bills did what
they did and made the move on Sean McDermott, because
(03:03):
you can't be losing, even in gut wrenching fashion, you
can't be losing to Bonex and the Denver Broncos. When
you think you run the AFC and you know what's
coming next year, you know what's going to happen. You're
going to get a Bengals team with Joe Burrow that
will be formidable, you know. Mahomes now getting back on
the horse here and trying to resurrect what happened last year.
(03:25):
We know that the Broncos aren't going anywhere, the Patriots
aren't going anywhere. So the AFC has gotten more difficult
for the Buffalo Bills. This was their year, this was
their window to make the Super Bowl. And I do
think that there's a lot of worry in Buffalo about,
uh oh, are we going to miss this with Josh Allen?
Are we not going to get to a super Bowl
with Josh Allen. It's such a great fan base.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Those fans are so loyal, so rabid, and you know what,
fan base has been kicked in the teeth more over
the years. Four straight Super Bowl losses. Now, this not
being able to get there with the best quarterback of well,
one of the best quarterbacks of the era.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
It's just it has to be frustrating. All Right, Let's
start with the AFC Championship game that will be the
first of the two, the Patriots on the road against
the Denver Broncos. I will say this at the top,
this number at four and a half, five or five
and a half, this number factor directly into the same
trend that we talked about last week and why I
(04:29):
took the Bears at plus four last week. You just
don't see teams in the playoffs being home dogs of
four points or more. Teams that are four point dogs
are more in the postseason over the last fifty years
are now ten and zero straight up. This is obviously
the Jared Stidham factor. In his first start, he becomes
(04:51):
the first quarterback to ever start a Championship round game
without taking a single snap in the regular season. Pat
how do you handle this handicap here with an unknown
at quarterback for the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
I have seen a lot of people talking up Jared
Stidham on Twitter. Okay, the guys made four NFL starts
and he did throw for two hundred and nineteen or
more yards in all four of those starts, six touchdown passes,
but he also threw four interceptions, fumbled four times, and
took thirteen sacks. The Patriots defense, Matt as you know,
(05:27):
looked outstanding against the Texans, and I realized the Texans
don't have a high flying offense, but the Patriots really
smothered them. And obviously we're doing a great job of
taking the ball away. Bronco's running game hasn't been especially good.
I don't think Denver can run on New England or
really lean on the running game like you would want
to lean on the running game with a backup quarterback
(05:49):
starting for you. Denver's defense, you know, undeniably terrific, but
I don't think it's any better than Houston's defense. And
the New England offense was able to do enough in
that game. They were able to generate enough on the
ground with the running game, and even though it wasn't
Drake May's finest hour, he you know, through an interception,
lost two fumbles, took five sacks, but he made a
(06:11):
few plays when he needed to. So I actually like
the Patriots in this game, bucking all the trends about
the road favorite of more than a field goal being
a bad bets. I don't have a real strong feeling
on the total, which is what forty.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
One and a half.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I think it's been pretty stable there, but I would
slightly lean toward the under there just because it's so
hard to imagine the Broncos offense putting up twenty points
in this game. And that's why I can't take the
points with the Broncos. I just I don't think they
can generate enough offense.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Matt, Yeah, there's a lot of positive trends for the Patriots,
So I gave you that's the big one going into
the four points or more that it's ten and oh,
So is it due to lose? Maybe? But the Patriots
are twelve and oh straight up and ten and two
against this when they are favored by three points or
more this season, Drake May has never lost with Mike
(07:06):
Rabel when they've been favored by three points or more. Additionally,
the Patriots have been the best AFC team on the
road this year. They are eight and zero straight up.
They are seven to one against the spread. They are
the second best team against the number over all. The
Seahawks are eight and one against the spread as well,
which I've talked about the Seahawks and their domination on
(07:28):
the road and why Magma. I mean, I think if
the Seahawks could pick, they would put the Super Bowl
on the Eastern time zone because they have been so
dominant going east and playing in the Eastern dime zone
this season under Mike McDonald. But now they're at home
and they've won. We'll get to that game next. But
they've won eleven straight, ten straight games in the playoffs
at home. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots
(07:50):
handle the environment in Denver. So if you see the
way Drake May in New England in Foxborough, he's a
different quarterback. Why all three losses this year came at
home for the Patriots. They don't for whatever reason, they
don't perform their best at home, so they go on
the road where it's a hostile environment. They've got to
(08:12):
be much more precise. And maybe Drake May is a
better quarterback in this offense because he has to get
rid of the football because if he hangs onto the
football against this Denver pass rush, this is the recipe
for disaster for the New England. He got away with
it in both home playoff games. He was stripsacked multiple times,
he was nearly picked off multiple times, He threw late
(08:34):
multiple times. Things that we did not see during the
regular season, and now this is his first career road
start in a place in which Patriot fans know all
about it. This is the House of Horrors. This is
the one place where in October I said to Mike
Vrabel and everyone in New England, get the darn number
one seed. Don't have to go to Denver, a place
(08:56):
where even Tom Brady was zeroing too in AFC champ
Chip games, because that building is just so difficult for
the Patriots to go there and win. And if Drake
May does do this, and you're right, and Patriots go
in there and they win and they cover and they
exercise all these demons from the past, this would be
cathartic for so many people my age who remember the
(09:18):
Orange Crush, who remember John Elway, who remembered that the
Patriots were just a doormat to the Broncos for pretty
much two decades when they were ruling the AFC and
dominating and going and winning Super Bowls. This is going
to be Drake May's most difficult test, and he has
got to be more careful with the football. If the
(09:39):
Patriots don't turn the ball over, I think you're right.
I'm very concerned about the Patriots with the turnovers.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Though, hearing your take on this, it makes me feel
even better about the under and that might be my
favorite beat of you know, favorite sideer total from either
of these two games. Like I just it is going
to be hard for Drake may to Like no one
and no one is dicing up.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
This Broncos defense. It's just too good, yep.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
I think maybe the only thing that could short circuit
the under here would be well, turnovers, turnovers in short
field situations, Yeah, that would be a problem. But otherwise,
you know, even though the weather I think is supposed
to be pretty pristine for this game, that should not
be any sort of hindrance to either offense. But I
(10:26):
do think the defenses are going to be major hindrances
to each of these offenses.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Yeah, Jared Stidham is the big question mark, right, I mean,
this is an un in the postseason. We have seen
a quarterback start a game in the postseason, not championship game,
but a playoff game where he did not play in
the regular season. Those quarterbacks are one in seven in
those games. The only win was Frank Reich by the
(10:51):
Buffalo Bills up against the Houston Oilers. Back in nineteen
ninety two. It's been a while since we've seen a
win like this. Jared's did them fourth round pick for
the Patriots. Everyone's talking about him and the fact that,
well he got two contracts from the Broncos, not just one,
but the first day higher the first quarterback that was
brought in by Sean Payton was Jared Stidham. So clearly
(11:13):
there is a liking there. Then he gave him another contract,
he kept him and re signed him to back up
bo Nicks. He's not mobile. This is the problem I
think for this Broncos offense. They've been so rpo heavy
and why I liked them last week because I thought
bow Nicks would be able to run, and he did
against the Buffalo Bills. It's how he broke his ankle
(11:35):
was scrambling and running and the rollouts that they do
all the time. That is not Jared Stidham's game. Remember
he was drafted as one of the potential air appearents
to Tom Brady, meaning five step, seven step drop hand
back in the pocket, survey the defense and go ahead
and pick apart whatever you see. Josh McDaniels was his
(11:55):
offensive coordinator when he was drafted by the Patriots. Everyone's
talking about the fact that this guy is Sean Paton's
you know, he feels about him. The Patriots know this guy.
They know him really well. Josh McDaniels knows him really well.
They know what he likes to do, what he doesn't
like to do, they know what he struggles with. I
think it's a huge advantage of the Patriots know this guy.
(12:17):
I think if they didn't have any real background with
him or didn't have a real feel for what he's
capable of, how many hours of tape do the Patriots
have of practice and other things with Jared Stidham, Like
they know this guy, so I have a Patriots future.
I don't like five and a half. That feels too
heavy to me, So I think if it goes back
to five and a half. I know hard rock bets
(12:38):
at five, and other books have been at five and
a half. I think if it goes back to five
and a half, you can go ahead and take the Patriots,
or sorry, take the Broncos at plus five and a half.
I do like that side because I think it's too heavy,
But this number might come down and you might be
able to get four. You might be able to get
three and a half at some point by the time
we get to kick off. If it goes that way,
I do think your side is decent. I'm gonna bet
(12:59):
the Bronco money line just as a hedge off my
Patriots future. But this is a game where people expect
the Patriots to win and the numbers. It's not gonna
stun me either way. The Patriots lose this game, I
won't be stunned. The Patriots win this game, I won't
be stunned just because the Bonux factor pat is so significant.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Where do you think this number lands would kick off?
Matt if you had to guess four, Do you think
it comes down to four?
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Yeah? I think I think the money's gonna come in
late on Denver. I think it's ahead. I think the
driving it up to five and a half was a headfake.
I think that was the professionals just trying to get
that number up to five and a half. But I
have talked to one person that I really do respect
a lot, and he thinks Denver's in really try a
lot of trouble here. And he thinks because of the offense,
if you can't run the football, and he doesn't think
(13:50):
they're gonna be able to run the ball on the Patriots,
and frankly, the numbers would bear it out. When Christian
and Zalez, Robert Splane, and Milton Williams are all on
the field for the Paytriots, they are sixteen and o
this year. They have not lost, so they're sixteen and
three overall. But when they have their healthy defense, they
haven't lost. So you take a look at what happens
(14:12):
defensively for the Patriots against the running attack, and you
put it all on Jared Stidham's shoulders. And I know
he's got Courtland and I know he's got some deep threats,
some players that are going to be wanting to get
the football down the field. But they've got a secondary
right now. And I know Carlton Davis got banged up
in the game and we'll see what his status is
coming up for the Patriots on Sunday. But you have
(14:33):
arguably the best shutdown cornerback in the AFC and Christian
Gonzales And so now who are you throwing to tight
ends like this is? This is tough. Denver has to
run the football and play the rpo game because that's
how their offense is built.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
We had seen Woody Marks run for more than one
hundred yards against a pretty respectable Steelers run defense, fourteen
carries for seventeen yards. Last week against the Patriots, they
could not run the ball at all on New England.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
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(15:22):
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Speaker 3 (15:56):
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(16:18):
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Speaker 1 (16:24):
Virginia, we go to the Lake Game and into an
NFC West matchup, and it's not shocking. I think when
you and I first did this conversation, I talked about
taking the NFC to win the Super Bowl. At plus
one forty, you're guaranteed to get a team into the
Super Bowl. If you made that bet, you're guaranteed you're
gonna have one NFC West team. In which one will
it be? Well, I think you and I disagree here.
(16:46):
Number opened up at one and a half. It's been
bet to two and a half. That's where Vegas opened
for Seattle. This is a Rams team that has not
looked good and back to back wins. They were fortunate
to beat the Panthers. They were extremely fortunate to beat
the Bayer. Where are you on Rams on the road
against the Seahawks?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
All right, Well, let's revisit the two meetings between these
teams during the regular season. Matt so The Rams won
the first game twenty one to nineteen. In Week eleven,
Josh Meyers, the Seattle kicker, missed a sixty one yard
field go on the final play of the game that
would have won it. Seattle actually outgained the Rams four
hundred and fourteen to two hundred and forty nine, but
Sam Donald threw four interceptions. The Rams only at the
(17:26):
ball for about twenty two minutes in that game, but
that was mostly because Donald kept throwing interceptions that left
the Rams with short fields. Two of those interceptions led
directly to Rams touchdowns. I think one of them set
the Rams up at the three yard line. Second game,
Seahawks win thirty eight thirty seven in overtime. In Week sixteen,
a barn burner nine hundred and ninety six yards of
(17:47):
offense in that game, the Rams outgained the Steelers, this
time five hundred and eighty one to four hundred and fifteen.
Once again, turnovers were kind of an issue for the Seahawks.
They committed three of them, including two or Sam Donald interceptions,
and the Rams committed none. Stafford had four hundred and
fifty seven passing yards pukin Nakua, two hundred and twenty
five receiving yards, and two touchdowns, and yet Seattle was
(18:10):
able to get the win. All told, in these two games,
the Rams outscored the Seahawks by one point and outgained
the Seahawks by one yard, so this is a pretty
even matchup. We get quite a bit of offense in
those games, not a ton of points in the first game,
only forty, but Seattle did pile up the yardage just
didn't amount to a lot of points, and we also
(18:32):
got a lot of Sam Donald turnovers in both of
these games. I like the Rams here. Matt Seattle has
the better defense. The Rams have the better offense and
the better quarterback. And I don't mind that the Rams
have had to struggle in their first two playoff games,
like they've showed resilience on the road against a pair
of teams have threw something close to their best punch
(18:53):
against the Rams. Seahawks didn't really get a first test,
or much of a test at all from the forty
nine ers have had two really good tests. Maybe that
is important if this game comes down to crunch time
at the end in the fourth quarter. And oh, by
the way, the Seahawks owin six against the spread in
their last six home games against the Rams. So I
(19:16):
do like the Rams here, and I like the over.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
So let's get into this because I'm the trend guy.
So there's all sorts of trends here in this game.
So teams with the rest advantage, and the Seahawks will
have the rest advantage. Here are twenty one and seven
straight up at home in the postseason since two thousand
and three. In two thousand and four, the Rams did
not cover in either game, but they won both games.
(19:41):
This is very rare. The Rams are the first team
in the Super Bowl era to lose against the number
in both the wild card round and the Divisional round
and yet be playing in this round. It's very rare
to be able to get through it without covering. And
then you look at where we've seen here for teams
just you know, at home favorites have been. Last week,
(20:05):
favorites went four to zero straight up, three and one
against the spread, just the third time in the last
twenty years that that happened. And I think if you
look at if you look at the Rams third consecutive
road game that they're playing since realignment in twenty two.
In two thousand and two, teams playing on their third
consecutive road game into the regular season or the playoffs
(20:27):
covering at just a thirty seven percent clip, and when
teams are listed as a dog, they're covering out a
twenty four percent clip. In the playoffs, teams that are
on a third consecutive road game are just twelve and
thirty straight up and nine and twenty eight straight up
as an underdog. So the Rams are trying to buck
every one of these trends here that it's really hard
(20:50):
to go on the playoff into the playoffs and win
three consecutive road games but also be favored in two
of them, not cover, and then get to the Super Bowl.
My problem with the Rams is their inconsistency. They just,
for whatever reason, they're very inconsistent, and they're walking into
a place where you can't be inconsistent. The twelfth man
(21:11):
in this building is going to be ferocious. I mean
that game was over at kickoff against the forty nine Ers,
opening kickoff return touchdown game over. It was seven to nothing.
The Niners scored six points up against this defense. It's
the number one defense in football, and they're going to
pressure a quarterback that I like in Matthew Stafford. But
(21:34):
if you can make him move, and the Bears made
him move. You saw him go through a really big
period in the second half of that football game where
things are not going well at all for the Rams,
and the Bears had the football in overtime with a
chance to go down and kick the field goal, and well,
the ghost of Caleb Williams showed up and he made
a horrible throw and DJ Moore ran an awful route
(21:56):
and it was just a bad combination interception, and then
the field goal gets kicked in the game is won
by the Rams. They're very lucky to be here. I
can't back a team that I don't think that should
be here, and I have a future on Seattle. I'm
not sure I'm touching this. I may just sit back
and go, you know what, let this play out, because
I like the Seahawks. I'm probably not even gonna hedge this.
(22:17):
I like Seattle. I think they win the game. I
think they cover, but if I was gonna bet it,
I would lay the two and a half points just
because of the home field advantage, and this is a
really hard place to play pad it is.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Admittedly, the Rams have not been the same team in
the last month or so that they were for most
of the regular season, when they were consistently you know,
top team, number two, number three in the NFL power rankings.
They were always way out there, and with good reason.
I thought they were probably the most complete team for
(22:52):
most of the season as far as offense, defense, great
defensive line. That hasn't been showing up as much lately.
But I still think that they are capable of being
that complete team. And I just what I can't get
past here is the gap between these two quarterbacks, both
in terms of playoff experience just overall talent. I just
(23:15):
I don't want to be on the Sam Donald side
of a Sam Donald versus Matthew Stafford duel.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Ultimately, really, even with the way he played this year,
you don't I Sam Donald still.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
He was you know, he played really well during the
regular season this year. He played really well for most
of the regular season last year and kind of wilted
when it mattered most down the stretch. Donald against top
competition is different than Donald against you know, losing teams,
five hundred teams, and we kind of saw that during
(23:50):
the regular season with the five interceptions in these two
games or was it six interceptions in these two games
against the Rams, I mean, he was a turnover machine
and these I just wonder, if you know, if we
get the bad version of Sam Donald, I think Seattle
is gonna have a hard time winning this game, even
with the twelfth man.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
There are some crazy numbers. Sean McVay against the Seahawks
at night in primetime, it's happened five times. He's five
and oh ats in those games, covering the spread Bay
over five points. But Sam Donald and Mike McDonald whin
they're together at night. They are six and oh straight
up in those games. McDonald's four and seven straight up
(24:31):
with every other quarterback while he's been the coach of
the Seahawks, including zero to four ats with Gino Smith
and five and one ats with Sam Donald. So things
have really changed here. And again, I just think defense,
I don't like the Rams defense. I thought the Rams
again are lucky to be in this game. And defensively,
(24:53):
I'm going to back a Seahawks team that I think
we'll be able to get after and make the quarterback
in Matthew staff move And as long as you make
him move, you can make him uncomfortable. And granted, look
at you know, people are looking at Sam Darnold. Sorry,
they're looking at you know, the Patriots and what's happening
with Drake May and the MVP conversation with Matthew Stafford,
(25:13):
and they're like, you know, both these guys aren't playing
well in the playoffs. And I would agree. I mean,
both guys that dominated in the regular season, this is
the playoffs, guys, it gets more difficult. Guys aren't going
to go out there and throw for four touchdown passes
every week. It just doesn't happen. These defenses are really good,
and now they're both on the road, and if they
both win, they're on a collision course in San Francisco.
(25:34):
And I think if the NFL was to pick who
they want to win, La New England is the game
that they want. It's mcveigh's revenge, it's MVP versus MVP.
There's storylines all over the place if we get there,
and remember, the super Bowl is and we don't want
to admit it, but it's a TV show. Okay, It's
(25:54):
the most popular and most watched TV show every year.
So not to say that Jared's isn't a great story.
But if you're the NFL, you want Denver and Jared
Stidham in the super Bowl and talk about him for
two weeks. Or it's Seattle and Denver in both teams
are west of the Mississippi that are playing on a
(26:15):
West coast super Bowl. It's the super Bowl. Everybody watches it.
But they want big numbers, they want big ratings. We
already have problems with the bad Bunny situation. People are
ticked off about that, about the halftime show. You add
in two teams that aren't that sexy and aren't that interesting. Okay,
I'm not going to play conspiracy theorist, but I am
playing conspiracy theorists just to say, be careful when it
(26:36):
comes to the zebras, like there could be calls that
go both the Rims and the Patriots way on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Hey, I'm I'm the guy betting the Matthew Stafford Drake
May super Bowl here, Matt, you don't have to tell
me so.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
And I think it's a really I think it's exactas
are a really good way when you're talking about betting
right now, and if you're looking at value, there is
some really good numbers out there in the market when
it comes to exact as to take Patriots rams rams
over the Patriots ramp patrol the rams, like, there's some
numbers you guys can accumulate that won't be available come
the super Bowl once we get the matchup, and you
(27:10):
can take both home games, you know, both home teams
with Seattle against Denver or Denver over Seattle. Look at
the exact of markets and shop around, because that is
a really good way of approaching what you might be
able to get on and take. Here for a number perspective. Guys.
Remember you guys can track these bets and stay accountable.
Level up By downloading the Betting Pros app with Sportsbooks Sinc.
(27:33):
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(27:56):
slash Premium. All Right, so before we get out of here,
you like, I'm betting Bronco's money line as a hedge,
but I think the Broncos at five and a half
is a good look. You like the Patriots laying four
and a half, right?
Speaker 2 (28:08):
I do like the Patriots if I can get him
at that number. And you know, you think this winds
up at four. I kind of think it winds up
at four to four and a half. You know, if
I had a guess, probably four and a half. I
would take the Patriots at anything four and a half
or last I get at five and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
I don't know if I can do that. We both
like the under, though, right I meant this is low
scoring game, correct, So yeah, we both like the under.
And in the night game, I like Seattle laying two
and a half. You like the Rams taking two and
a half.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Right, correct? And I think I'm on the over and
you're on the under. We are polar opposites on this game.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
Yeah. I don't think the Rams score. I think the
I think the Seahawks defense is going to be the
story of the game. I think Mike McDonald's going to
call a very conservative game plan Offensively. I think the
Charbonney injury is bigger than people realize, in particular in
the red zone. I think it will lead to more
field goals for Seattle than it will for touchdowns for Seattle.
(29:02):
I think it's a field goal fest. I think it
looks a little bit like the Bears and the Rams game,
and if it goes to overtime, I wouldn't be stunned.
I think it's like, you know, a twenty seventeen, twenty one, seventeen,
something in that range type of win. It's on a
big cover for Seattle. But I do think they get
over the two and a half. I think this number
is going to close at three. I made that prediction
on Sunday. I think we're going up, and I think
(29:24):
it's gonna stop at three, and I think it stays there.
If it doesn't, I'd be very curious because that means
there's a lot of money in the market for the
Rams and that the books are afraid to go to
three because they know what's coming. If they do have
Seattle miles three, all the RAM money come in and
they could get buried on one side if they do
touch three. So watch the line move during the week
(29:47):
to see how that goes, and then comes Sunday on
our live stream, we'll be able to kind of re
set a bit and see where the number is going
to go. That number is going to close at what
in your mind?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Yeah, I'm torn between two and a half and three,
and that's why I'm gonna wait until Sunday because I
if I don't get three, like I would love to
get three with the Rams, if I can only get
two and a half, I'm just gonna take the Rams
on the money line right because it's super expensive, I mean,
the most expensive move in the sports book is to
buy up from two and a half to three.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
That's the most expensive thing. You're gonna pay heavy juice
to do that, and so the books are always very
hesitant to go from two and a half to three.
There has to be big money on Seattle to make
that happen. It could, but if it does ever get there,
that tells you that there are some respected people that
like the Rams to go into Seattle and get it done.
If not cover on your point money line, it just
(30:37):
win the game outrights and make it to the Super Bowl.
We're gonna be with you on Sunday on the live stream.
It begins at two o'clock Eastern time. He's Pat Fitzmorris.
I'm at Perelta talk to you on Sunday. Be watching
our live stream for the NFC and AFC Championship games.
Will break it all down. Props coming as well on
Sunday from both of us. Hope to see you all
(30:58):
on Sunday as we find out who's going to Santa
Clara for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (31:03):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Conference championship episode?
He's Pat Fitzmorris. I'm apperold. We are on the Betting
Pros YouTube channel where we will be on Sunday as
well live. It's going to be a fun countdown to
kickoff as we will get into our prop bets and
more on Sunday. But for the two games that are happening,
(00:22):
the NFC and the AFC Championship games, Pat, it's going
to be an interesting weekend. We have three football games
left in the twenty five to twenty sixth season. How
are you doing well, Matt, Yeah, it is going to
be interesting.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
Maybe it would have been a little more interesting either
if the Broncos had a healthy bon Knicks or if
the Buffalo Bills were able to win and set up
a Titanic AFC East showdown for the AFC Championship.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
You know, I think there's a couple things that we're
going to dive into the game. Obviously both games, and
we can kind of look at the Bonex situation and
the injury, but just to kind of take a look
back at the Sean McDermott situation, do you think Sean
mcder Let's say he did get into the championship game
and he lost at New England. Like the Patriots beat
the Bills in the AFC Championship game. Do you think
(01:09):
the Bills still fires on McDermott. That's a good question.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
I'm not sure why McDermott was the one who, you know,
had to fall on the sword here and not Brandon Bean.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
You know, they promoted him, they gave him a ring,
he got a promotion.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
It's not like McDermott was the one responsible for Josh
Allen throwing to Brandon Cooks and you know, Tyrrell Shavers
and all these guys in the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Like, I don't know, I'm.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Maybe they would have because I'm sure Bill's fans feel
like they're on the treadmill here, and how frustrating it
has to be for them to not get to a
super Bowl at the height of Josh Allen's powers. I
totally get that, but I am kind of surprised that
it's McDermott alone taking the fall.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
So Josh Allen's twenty nine years old. If the Patriots
win on Sunday and make the Super Bowl, Drake may
will have made a super Bowl in two years before.
Josh Allen has made a super Bowl during his entire
tenure in the NFL. It is remarkable, and it really
is Patrick Mahomes's fault. Like, if you want to look
at why John Harbaugh and why Sean McDermott both got fired,
(02:20):
it's because in the year that Mahomes was not good
and not in the playoffs, neither Lamar Jackson nor Josh
Allen will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and
thus both teams decide to fire their longtime head coach.
Eighteen years for John Harbaugh, nine years for Sean McDermott.
But I also think you can't underestimate the moving into
(02:42):
the new stadium as to how that was going to
affect the Bills. That if you go in there after
a championship, or you go in there after a Super
Bowl appearance or something of a high note, and it's like, Okay,
we're really close, and now the new stadium and all
this new excitement. I understand why the Bills did what
they did and made the move on Sean McDermott, because
(03:03):
you can't be losing, even in gut wrenching fashion, you
can't be losing to Bonex and the Denver Broncos. When
you think you run the AFC and you know what's
coming next year, you know what's going to happen. You're
going to get a Bengals team with Joe Burrow that
will be formidable, you know. Mahomes now getting back on
the horse here and trying to resurrect what happened last year.
(03:25):
We know that the Broncos aren't going anywhere, the Patriots
aren't going anywhere. So the AFC has gotten more difficult
for the Buffalo Bills. This was their year, this was
their window to make the Super Bowl. And I do
think that there's a lot of worry in Buffalo about,
uh oh, are we going to miss this with Josh Allen?
Are we not going to get to a super Bowl
with Josh Allen. It's such a great fan base.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Those fans are so loyal, so rabid, and you know what,
fan base has been kicked in the teeth more over
the years. Four straight Super Bowl losses. Now, this not
being able to get there with the best quarterback of well,
one of the best quarterbacks of the era.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
It's just it has to be frustrating. All Right, Let's
start with the AFC Championship game that will be the
first of the two, the Patriots on the road against
the Denver Broncos. I will say this at the top,
this number at four and a half, five or five
and a half, this number factor directly into the same
trend that we talked about last week and why I
(04:29):
took the Bears at plus four last week. You just
don't see teams in the playoffs being home dogs of
four points or more. Teams that are four point dogs
are more in the postseason over the last fifty years
are now ten and zero straight up. This is obviously
the Jared Stidham factor. In his first start, he becomes
(04:51):
the first quarterback to ever start a Championship round game
without taking a single snap in the regular season. Pat
how do you handle this handicap here with an unknown
at quarterback for the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
I have seen a lot of people talking up Jared
Stidham on Twitter. Okay, the guys made four NFL starts
and he did throw for two hundred and nineteen or
more yards in all four of those starts, six touchdown passes,
but he also threw four interceptions, fumbled four times, and
took thirteen sacks. The Patriots defense, Matt as you know,
(05:27):
looked outstanding against the Texans, and I realized the Texans
don't have a high flying offense, but the Patriots really
smothered them. And obviously we're doing a great job of
taking the ball away. Bronco's running game hasn't been especially good.
I don't think Denver can run on New England or
really lean on the running game like you would want
to lean on the running game with a backup quarterback
(05:49):
starting for you. Denver's defense, you know, undeniably terrific, but
I don't think it's any better than Houston's defense. And
the New England offense was able to do enough in
that game. They were able to generate enough on the
ground with the running game, and even though it wasn't
Drake May's finest hour, he you know, through an interception,
lost two fumbles, took five sacks, but he made a
(06:11):
few plays when he needed to. So I actually like
the Patriots in this game, bucking all the trends about
the road favorite of more than a field goal being
a bad bets. I don't have a real strong feeling
on the total, which is what forty.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
One and a half.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
I think it's been pretty stable there, but I would
slightly lean toward the under there just because it's so
hard to imagine the Broncos offense putting up twenty points
in this game. And that's why I can't take the
points with the Broncos. I just I don't think they
can generate enough offense.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Matt, Yeah, there's a lot of positive trends for the Patriots,
So I gave you that's the big one going into
the four points or more that it's ten and oh,
So is it due to lose? Maybe? But the Patriots
are twelve and oh straight up and ten and two
against this when they are favored by three points or
more this season, Drake May has never lost with Mike
(07:06):
Rabel when they've been favored by three points or more. Additionally,
the Patriots have been the best AFC team on the
road this year. They are eight and zero straight up.
They are seven to one against the spread. They are
the second best team against the number over all. The
Seahawks are eight and one against the spread as well,
which I've talked about the Seahawks and their domination on
(07:28):
the road and why Magma. I mean, I think if
the Seahawks could pick, they would put the Super Bowl
on the Eastern time zone because they have been so
dominant going east and playing in the Eastern dime zone
this season under Mike McDonald. But now they're at home
and they've won. We'll get to that game next. But
they've won eleven straight, ten straight games in the playoffs
at home. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots
(07:50):
handle the environment in Denver. So if you see the
way Drake May in New England in Foxborough, he's a
different quarterback. Why all three losses this year came at
home for the Patriots. They don't for whatever reason, they
don't perform their best at home, so they go on
the road where it's a hostile environment. They've got to
(08:12):
be much more precise. And maybe Drake May is a
better quarterback in this offense because he has to get
rid of the football because if he hangs onto the
football against this Denver pass rush, this is the recipe
for disaster for the New England. He got away with
it in both home playoff games. He was stripsacked multiple times,
he was nearly picked off multiple times, He threw late
(08:34):
multiple times. Things that we did not see during the
regular season, and now this is his first career road
start in a place in which Patriot fans know all
about it. This is the House of Horrors. This is
the one place where in October I said to Mike
Vrabel and everyone in New England, get the darn number
one seed. Don't have to go to Denver, a place
(08:56):
where even Tom Brady was zeroing too in AFC champ
Chip games, because that building is just so difficult for
the Patriots to go there and win. And if Drake
May does do this, and you're right, and Patriots go
in there and they win and they cover and they
exercise all these demons from the past, this would be
cathartic for so many people my age who remember the
(09:18):
Orange Crush, who remember John Elway, who remembered that the
Patriots were just a doormat to the Broncos for pretty
much two decades when they were ruling the AFC and
dominating and going and winning Super Bowls. This is going
to be Drake May's most difficult test, and he has
got to be more careful with the football. If the
(09:39):
Patriots don't turn the ball over, I think you're right.
I'm very concerned about the Patriots with the turnovers.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Though, hearing your take on this, it makes me feel
even better about the under and that might be my
favorite beat of you know, favorite sideer total from either
of these two games. Like I just it is going
to be hard for Drake may to Like no one
and no one is dicing up.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
This Broncos defense. It's just too good, yep.
Speaker 2 (10:04):
I think maybe the only thing that could short circuit
the under here would be well, turnovers, turnovers in short
field situations, Yeah, that would be a problem. But otherwise,
you know, even though the weather I think is supposed
to be pretty pristine for this game, that should not
be any sort of hindrance to either offense. But I
(10:26):
do think the defenses are going to be major hindrances
to each of these offenses.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Yeah, Jared Stidham is the big question mark, right, I mean,
this is an un in the postseason. We have seen
a quarterback start a game in the postseason, not championship game,
but a playoff game where he did not play in
the regular season. Those quarterbacks are one in seven in
those games. The only win was Frank Reich by the
(10:51):
Buffalo Bills up against the Houston Oilers. Back in nineteen
ninety two. It's been a while since we've seen a
win like this. Jared's did them fourth round pick for
the Patriots. Everyone's talking about him and the fact that,
well he got two contracts from the Broncos, not just one,
but the first day higher the first quarterback that was
brought in by Sean Payton was Jared Stidham. So clearly
(11:13):
there is a liking there. Then he gave him another contract,
he kept him and re signed him to back up
bo Nicks. He's not mobile. This is the problem I
think for this Broncos offense. They've been so rpo heavy
and why I liked them last week because I thought
bow Nicks would be able to run, and he did
against the Buffalo Bills. It's how he broke his ankle
(11:35):
was scrambling and running and the rollouts that they do
all the time. That is not Jared Stidham's game. Remember
he was drafted as one of the potential air appearents
to Tom Brady, meaning five step, seven step drop hand
back in the pocket, survey the defense and go ahead
and pick apart whatever you see. Josh McDaniels was his
(11:55):
offensive coordinator when he was drafted by the Patriots. Everyone's
talking about the fact that this guy is Sean Paton's
you know, he feels about him. The Patriots know this guy.
They know him really well. Josh McDaniels knows him really well.
They know what he likes to do, what he doesn't
like to do, they know what he struggles with. I
think it's a huge advantage of the Patriots know this guy.
(12:17):
I think if they didn't have any real background with
him or didn't have a real feel for what he's
capable of, how many hours of tape do the Patriots
have of practice and other things with Jared Stidham, Like
they know this guy, so I have a Patriots future.
I don't like five and a half. That feels too
heavy to me, So I think if it goes back
to five and a half. I know hard rock bets
(12:38):
at five, and other books have been at five and
a half. I think if it goes back to five
and a half, you can go ahead and take the Patriots,
or sorry, take the Broncos at plus five and a half.
I do like that side because I think it's too heavy,
But this number might come down and you might be
able to get four. You might be able to get
three and a half at some point by the time
we get to kick off. If it goes that way,
I do think your side is decent. I'm gonna bet
(12:59):
the Bronco money line just as a hedge off my
Patriots future. But this is a game where people expect
the Patriots to win and the numbers. It's not gonna
stun me either way. The Patriots lose this game, I
won't be stunned. The Patriots win this game, I won't
be stunned just because the Bonux factor pat is so significant.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
Where do you think this number lands would kick off?
Matt if you had to guess four, Do you think
it comes down to four?
Speaker 1 (13:27):
Yeah? I think I think the money's gonna come in
late on Denver. I think it's ahead. I think the
driving it up to five and a half was a headfake.
I think that was the professionals just trying to get
that number up to five and a half. But I
have talked to one person that I really do respect
a lot, and he thinks Denver's in really try a
lot of trouble here. And he thinks because of the offense,
if you can't run the football, and he doesn't think
(13:50):
they're gonna be able to run the ball on the Patriots,
and frankly, the numbers would bear it out. When Christian
and Zalez, Robert Splane, and Milton Williams are all on
the field for the Paytriots, they are sixteen and o
this year. They have not lost, so they're sixteen and
three overall. But when they have their healthy defense, they
haven't lost. So you take a look at what happens
(14:12):
defensively for the Patriots against the running attack, and you
put it all on Jared Stidham's shoulders. And I know
he's got Courtland and I know he's got some deep threats,
some players that are going to be wanting to get
the football down the field. But they've got a secondary
right now. And I know Carlton Davis got banged up
in the game and we'll see what his status is
coming up for the Patriots on Sunday. But you have
(14:33):
arguably the best shutdown cornerback in the AFC and Christian
Gonzales And so now who are you throwing to tight
ends like this is? This is tough. Denver has to
run the football and play the rpo game because that's
how their offense is built.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
We had seen Woody Marks run for more than one
hundred yards against a pretty respectable Steelers run defense, fourteen
carries for seventeen yards. Last week against the Patriots, they
could not run the ball at all on New England.
Speaker 1 (15:02):
Yeah, not even close, guys. Today's show is being brought
to you by hard Rock Bet Florida Sports Book. It's
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Speaker 3 (15:56):
Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminal Tribe of Florida and offered by a Seminal
hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be twenty
one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
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Concerned about gambling in Florida, I call one eight three
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(16:18):
hundred and nine with it, gambling problem called one hundred gambler.
In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Virginia, we go to the Lake Game and into an
NFC West matchup, and it's not shocking. I think when
you and I first did this conversation, I talked about
taking the NFC to win the Super Bowl. At plus
one forty, you're guaranteed to get a team into the
Super Bowl. If you made that bet, you're guaranteed you're
gonna have one NFC West team. In which one will
it be? Well, I think you and I disagree here.
(16:46):
Number opened up at one and a half. It's been
bet to two and a half. That's where Vegas opened
for Seattle. This is a Rams team that has not
looked good and back to back wins. They were fortunate
to beat the Panthers. They were extremely fortunate to beat
the Bayer. Where are you on Rams on the road
against the Seahawks?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
All right, Well, let's revisit the two meetings between these
teams during the regular season. Matt so The Rams won
the first game twenty one to nineteen. In Week eleven,
Josh Meyers, the Seattle kicker, missed a sixty one yard
field go on the final play of the game that
would have won it. Seattle actually outgained the Rams four
hundred and fourteen to two hundred and forty nine, but
Sam Donald threw four interceptions. The Rams only at the
(17:26):
ball for about twenty two minutes in that game, but
that was mostly because Donald kept throwing interceptions that left
the Rams with short fields. Two of those interceptions led
directly to Rams touchdowns. I think one of them set
the Rams up at the three yard line. Second game,
Seahawks win thirty eight thirty seven in overtime. In Week sixteen,
a barn burner nine hundred and ninety six yards of
(17:47):
offense in that game, the Rams outgained the Steelers, this
time five hundred and eighty one to four hundred and fifteen.
Once again, turnovers were kind of an issue for the Seahawks.
They committed three of them, including two or Sam Donald interceptions,
and the Rams committed none. Stafford had four hundred and
fifty seven passing yards pukin Nakua, two hundred and twenty
five receiving yards, and two touchdowns, and yet Seattle was
(18:10):
able to get the win. All told, in these two games,
the Rams outscored the Seahawks by one point and outgained
the Seahawks by one yard, so this is a pretty
even matchup. We get quite a bit of offense in
those games, not a ton of points in the first game,
only forty, but Seattle did pile up the yardage just
didn't amount to a lot of points, and we also
(18:32):
got a lot of Sam Donald turnovers in both of
these games. I like the Rams here. Matt Seattle has
the better defense. The Rams have the better offense and
the better quarterback. And I don't mind that the Rams
have had to struggle in their first two playoff games,
like they've showed resilience on the road against a pair
of teams have threw something close to their best punch
(18:53):
against the Rams. Seahawks didn't really get a first test,
or much of a test at all from the forty
nine ers have had two really good tests. Maybe that
is important if this game comes down to crunch time
at the end in the fourth quarter. And oh, by
the way, the Seahawks owin six against the spread in
their last six home games against the Rams. So I
(19:16):
do like the Rams here, and I like the over.
Speaker 1 (19:20):
So let's get into this because I'm the trend guy.
So there's all sorts of trends here in this game.
So teams with the rest advantage, and the Seahawks will
have the rest advantage. Here are twenty one and seven
straight up at home in the postseason since two thousand
and three. In two thousand and four, the Rams did
not cover in either game, but they won both games.
(19:41):
This is very rare. The Rams are the first team
in the Super Bowl era to lose against the number
in both the wild card round and the Divisional round
and yet be playing in this round. It's very rare
to be able to get through it without covering. And
then you look at where we've seen here for teams
just you know, at home favorites have been. Last week,
(20:05):
favorites went four to zero straight up, three and one
against the spread, just the third time in the last
twenty years that that happened. And I think if you
look at if you look at the Rams third consecutive
road game that they're playing since realignment in twenty two.
In two thousand and two, teams playing on their third
consecutive road game into the regular season or the playoffs
(20:27):
covering at just a thirty seven percent clip, and when
teams are listed as a dog, they're covering out a
twenty four percent clip. In the playoffs, teams that are
on a third consecutive road game are just twelve and
thirty straight up and nine and twenty eight straight up
as an underdog. So the Rams are trying to buck
every one of these trends here that it's really hard
(20:50):
to go on the playoff into the playoffs and win
three consecutive road games but also be favored in two
of them, not cover, and then get to the Super Bowl.
My problem with the Rams is their inconsistency. They just,
for whatever reason, they're very inconsistent, and they're walking into
a place where you can't be inconsistent. The twelfth man
(21:11):
in this building is going to be ferocious. I mean
that game was over at kickoff against the forty nine Ers,
opening kickoff return touchdown game over. It was seven to nothing.
The Niners scored six points up against this defense. It's
the number one defense in football, and they're going to
pressure a quarterback that I like in Matthew Stafford. But
(21:34):
if you can make him move, and the Bears made
him move. You saw him go through a really big
period in the second half of that football game where
things are not going well at all for the Rams,
and the Bears had the football in overtime with a
chance to go down and kick the field goal, and well,
the ghost of Caleb Williams showed up and he made
a horrible throw and DJ Moore ran an awful route
(21:56):
and it was just a bad combination interception, and then
the field goal gets kicked in the game is won
by the Rams. They're very lucky to be here. I
can't back a team that I don't think that should
be here, and I have a future on Seattle. I'm
not sure I'm touching this. I may just sit back
and go, you know what, let this play out, because
I like the Seahawks. I'm probably not even gonna hedge this.
(22:17):
I like Seattle. I think they win the game. I
think they cover, but if I was gonna bet it,
I would lay the two and a half points just
because of the home field advantage, and this is a
really hard place to play pad it is.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
Admittedly, the Rams have not been the same team in
the last month or so that they were for most
of the regular season, when they were consistently you know,
top team, number two, number three in the NFL power rankings.
They were always way out there, and with good reason.
I thought they were probably the most complete team for
(22:52):
most of the season as far as offense, defense, great
defensive line. That hasn't been showing up as much lately.
But I still think that they are capable of being
that complete team. And I just what I can't get
past here is the gap between these two quarterbacks, both
in terms of playoff experience just overall talent. I just
(23:15):
I don't want to be on the Sam Donald side
of a Sam Donald versus Matthew Stafford duel.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
Ultimately, really, even with the way he played this year,
you don't I Sam Donald still.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
He was you know, he played really well during the
regular season this year. He played really well for most
of the regular season last year and kind of wilted
when it mattered most down the stretch. Donald against top
competition is different than Donald against you know, losing teams,
five hundred teams, and we kind of saw that during
(23:50):
the regular season with the five interceptions in these two
games or was it six interceptions in these two games
against the Rams, I mean, he was a turnover machine
and these I just wonder, if you know, if we
get the bad version of Sam Donald, I think Seattle
is gonna have a hard time winning this game, even
with the twelfth man.
Speaker 1 (24:11):
There are some crazy numbers. Sean McVay against the Seahawks
at night in primetime, it's happened five times. He's five
and oh ats in those games, covering the spread Bay
over five points. But Sam Donald and Mike McDonald whin
they're together at night. They are six and oh straight
up in those games. McDonald's four and seven straight up
(24:31):
with every other quarterback while he's been the coach of
the Seahawks, including zero to four ats with Gino Smith
and five and one ats with Sam Donald. So things
have really changed here. And again, I just think defense,
I don't like the Rams defense. I thought the Rams
again are lucky to be in this game. And defensively,
(24:53):
I'm going to back a Seahawks team that I think
we'll be able to get after and make the quarterback
in Matthew staff move And as long as you make
him move, you can make him uncomfortable. And granted, look
at you know, people are looking at Sam Darnold. Sorry,
they're looking at you know, the Patriots and what's happening
with Drake May and the MVP conversation with Matthew Stafford,
(25:13):
and they're like, you know, both these guys aren't playing
well in the playoffs. And I would agree. I mean,
both guys that dominated in the regular season, this is
the playoffs, guys, it gets more difficult. Guys aren't going
to go out there and throw for four touchdown passes
every week. It just doesn't happen. These defenses are really good,
and now they're both on the road, and if they
both win, they're on a collision course in San Francisco.
(25:34):
And I think if the NFL was to pick who
they want to win, La New England is the game
that they want. It's mcveigh's revenge, it's MVP versus MVP.
There's storylines all over the place if we get there,
and remember, the super Bowl is and we don't want
to admit it, but it's a TV show. Okay, It's
(25:54):
the most popular and most watched TV show every year.
So not to say that Jared's isn't a great story.
But if you're the NFL, you want Denver and Jared
Stidham in the super Bowl and talk about him for
two weeks. Or it's Seattle and Denver in both teams
are west of the Mississippi that are playing on a
(26:15):
West coast super Bowl. It's the super Bowl. Everybody watches it.
But they want big numbers, they want big ratings. We
already have problems with the bad Bunny situation. People are
ticked off about that, about the halftime show. You add
in two teams that aren't that sexy and aren't that interesting. Okay,
I'm not going to play conspiracy theorist, but I am
playing conspiracy theorists just to say, be careful when it
(26:36):
comes to the zebras, like there could be calls that
go both the Rims and the Patriots way on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (26:42):
Hey, I'm I'm the guy betting the Matthew Stafford Drake
May super Bowl here, Matt, you don't have to tell
me so.
Speaker 1 (26:49):
And I think it's a really I think it's exactas
are a really good way when you're talking about betting
right now, and if you're looking at value, there is
some really good numbers out there in the market when
it comes to exact as to take Patriots rams rams
over the Patriots ramp patrol the rams, like, there's some
numbers you guys can accumulate that won't be available come
the super Bowl once we get the matchup, and you
(27:10):
can take both home games, you know, both home teams
with Seattle against Denver or Denver over Seattle. Look at
the exact of markets and shop around, because that is
a really good way of approaching what you might be
able to get on and take. Here for a number perspective. Guys.
Remember you guys can track these bets and stay accountable.
Level up By downloading the Betting Pros app with Sportsbooks Sinc.
(27:33):
You and antomatically track all your bets across all major
sports books in one spot. Easily monitor your bet performance
by sport and bet type, including picks, props, and parlays.
You can create custom systems to find winning trends. New
users can get a six month for free Betting Pros
Premium subscription with your first deposit and wager at a
partner sportsbook. Learn more by going to bettingpros dot com
(27:56):
slash Premium. All Right, so before we get out of here,
you like, I'm betting Bronco's money line as a hedge,
but I think the Broncos at five and a half
is a good look. You like the Patriots laying four
and a half, right?
Speaker 2 (28:08):
I do like the Patriots if I can get him
at that number. And you know, you think this winds
up at four. I kind of think it winds up
at four to four and a half. You know, if
I had a guess, probably four and a half. I
would take the Patriots at anything four and a half
or last I get at five and a half.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
I don't know if I can do that. We both
like the under, though, right I meant this is low
scoring game, correct, So yeah, we both like the under.
And in the night game, I like Seattle laying two
and a half. You like the Rams taking two and
a half.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Right, correct? And I think I'm on the over and
you're on the under. We are polar opposites on this game.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
Yeah. I don't think the Rams score. I think the
I think the Seahawks defense is going to be the
story of the game. I think Mike McDonald's going to
call a very conservative game plan Offensively. I think the
Charbonney injury is bigger than people realize, in particular in
the red zone. I think it will lead to more
field goals for Seattle than it will for touchdowns for Seattle.
(29:02):
I think it's a field goal fest. I think it
looks a little bit like the Bears and the Rams game,
and if it goes to overtime, I wouldn't be stunned.
I think it's like, you know, a twenty seventeen, twenty one, seventeen,
something in that range type of win. It's on a
big cover for Seattle. But I do think they get
over the two and a half. I think this number
is going to close at three. I made that prediction
on Sunday. I think we're going up, and I think
(29:24):
it's gonna stop at three, and I think it stays there.
If it doesn't, I'd be very curious because that means
there's a lot of money in the market for the
Rams and that the books are afraid to go to
three because they know what's coming. If they do have
Seattle miles three, all the RAM money come in and
they could get buried on one side if they do
touch three. So watch the line move during the week
(29:47):
to see how that goes, and then comes Sunday on
our live stream, we'll be able to kind of re
set a bit and see where the number is going
to go. That number is going to close at what
in your mind?
Speaker 2 (29:57):
Yeah, I'm torn between two and a half and three,
and that's why I'm gonna wait until Sunday because I
if I don't get three, like I would love to
get three with the Rams, if I can only get
two and a half, I'm just gonna take the Rams
on the money line right because it's super expensive, I mean,
the most expensive move in the sports book is to
buy up from two and a half to three.
Speaker 1 (30:15):
That's the most expensive thing. You're gonna pay heavy juice
to do that, and so the books are always very
hesitant to go from two and a half to three.
There has to be big money on Seattle to make
that happen. It could, but if it does ever get there,
that tells you that there are some respected people that
like the Rams to go into Seattle and get it done.
If not cover on your point money line, it just
(30:37):
win the game outrights and make it to the Super Bowl.
We're gonna be with you on Sunday on the live stream.
It begins at two o'clock Eastern time. He's Pat Fitzmorris.
I'm at Perelta talk to you on Sunday. Be watching
our live stream for the NFC and AFC Championship games.
Will break it all down. Props coming as well on
Sunday from both of us. Hope to see you all
(30:58):
on Sunday as we find out who's going to Santa
Clara for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (31:03):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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