January 13, 2026 • 38 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite bets to make for each game in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Wild Card Weekend Recap - 0:00:15
Bills -1 @ Broncos - 0:03:32
49ers +7.5 @ Seahawks - 0:10:51
Hard Rock Bet - 0:18:35
Texans +3 @ Patriots - 0:19:56
BettingPros App - 0:26:14
Rams -3.5 @ Bears - 0:26:44
Favorite Weekend Bets - 0:36:04
Outro - 0:37:57
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
What's up, guys. How are you welcome into an early
look at the divisional round games. He is Pat fitz Morris.
I am Att Parolz. We are here on the Betting
Pro YouTube channel to give you picks, plays and thoughts,
sides and totals for the weekend. But Pat, let's put
a bow on the wild card weekend after what we saw.
It was interesting. In the beginning, it was all dogs.
(00:22):
In the end, it was two favorites, Patriots and the Texans.
We'll talk about here in a second, winning and covering.
What was your overall takeaway from the first round of
the knockout playoffs.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think we got the unpredictability that we thought we
were going to get. We had a lot of close games.
Jaguars Bills was a barn burner, I mean really didn't.
The first four games all come down to the final
possession of the game. So yeah, it was just totally
up for grabs. We found the Steelers were the one
(00:52):
team that really had no business in the playoffs at all.
And you know, very convincing showing by your patrin. It's
against a good, if not flawed, fatally flawed team because
of their offensive line, but yeah, I thought, all in all,
Man could not have asked for more entertaining Saturday of football. Obviously,
(01:15):
I wasn't real happy with the way the night game went.
And I'm gonna have to forbid you from ever wearing
a Packers hat on the day of a Packers playoff
game again, Matt.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
But no, it was a pretty fun week in of football.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Up by eighteen points in in the second half, like
zero to five, ending to the year for the Packers.
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Late game meltdowns are in Matt Lafleur's DNA. And you
want to know a fun stat, Matt, not if you're
a Packers fan, Packers and Bears played three times. Do
you know how many offensive snaps the Bears took with
a lead in those three games.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
I'm gonna say four zero.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Never, they never took one snap with a lead and
managed to win two of those three games.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
And of them that's amazing. Wow, that is that's amazing.
Oh my gosh. All right, interesting stuff. A couple of
things to look at as we go ahead. From a
trend perspective. If the Rams and the Bills both closes favorites,
it'll be the first time in fifty four years where
(02:26):
we've had two road favorites in the divisional round of
the playoffs. We just don't see this very often. This
is a very unique year. Last week we had a
lot of road favorites. The Bills went off as a
road dog, but they were a road favorite for most
of the week. We saw the biggest number in the
history of the NFL from a road playoff perspective, with
(02:48):
ten and a half for the Rams. They won, but
they did not cover. So this is and you mentioned
it in the in the top about the unpredictability of
what we thought could excuse me, could happen it from
a betting perspective, it was a very unpredictable weekend in
terms of where the money was going. And the books
did fairly well because well, the professionals came in and
(03:10):
hammered the Rams all week long, got that thing up
to a high as eleven before the buyeback happened. That
came no close and it didn't come close to covering.
And then we have you know, now we've got the
teams on the by playing, we have Seattle, and we
have Denver coming in that's obviously going to impact where
we are from a numbers perspective, this is to me
a very difficult handicapping weekend. But the Broncos being a
(03:34):
dog is still and we'll get into it. I'm still
stunned at this that they are a dog. It's the
fourth time in the last forty years a team off
of bye in the divisional round is not favored like
this is. They are the number one seed and they're
off a by like this is always one hundred percent
they're going to be the favorite, and right now the
(03:57):
Broncos are a dog to the bill on Saturday. Let's
start with that game, Pat, I don't understand this at all.
I like Broncos money line gave me Denver to win
this game. What am I missing?
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Well?
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Do you think the Broncos are ultimately going to go
off as dogs in this one? Because this line has
been all over the place, and you know, I was
looking at various sites this morning. I didn't It's a
different number on every site right right.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
This one is bouncing around all over the place.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
So I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos wound up
being one and a half point favorites in this one.
But maybe not because people believe in the Josh Allen magic,
and that is kind of where I'm at. Matt, like
I've already lost once betting against Josh Allen. We both
like the Jaguars money line. I don't think it was
a bad bet. I mean that game went right down
(04:50):
to the end. But yeah, I do see it the
same way you see it. The Broncos defense is the
best unit in this game, and they can ply immense
pressure on quarterbacks. They have the most sacks in the
league by nine, and if you go by DVA, the
Denver run defense is actually better than the Jaguars run defense.
(05:11):
And James Cook had fifteen carries for forty six yards
against the Jaguars last week. But then again, betting on
Bow Nicks against well, I'm not sure i'd call the
Bill's a good pass defense, but it's an above average
pass defense, and Knicks has not played that well since
his four touchdown game against the Packers in Week fifteen.
(05:34):
Last three games, he's been pretty average to maybe below.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Now maybe R J.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Harvey carries the day against a bad Bill's run defense,
but Harvey didn't really pop until December, and he's averaging
three point seven yards of carry I don't think I'm
gonna be betting either side in this game. I just
don't have a good feel for it. Maybe you're feeling
stronger about the Broncos than I am. I do feel
better about betting the under in this game forty six
(06:01):
point five. I just it's hard for me to imagine
either team putting up more than about twenty seven points.
That that's the ceiling, and I think the floor could
be a lot lower with each team's individual total in
this game.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
So forty six and a half.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Granted, the weather is looking like it's going to be
just fine forty eight degrees light wind according to the
forecast I looked at. But you know, I kind of
like the under here. I'm not touching either side in
this game.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
I like the Broncos to win the game. And as
a Patriot fan, and we're talking about the second game,
I would love Buffalo to win this game. I would
be afraid of the Bills showing up for an AFC
Championship game in New England because that is ratings gold
and that is a high pressure situation for Drake May
and the Patriots to go up against the guy who
has for the last five seasons owned the AFC East
(06:56):
and having a chance to go to the Super Bowl,
which was and if Josh Allen can't do it this year,
I'm not sure Josh Allen will ever play in a
Super Bowl if he cannot get past who he has
to get passed, And so right now in his path
is Bonis, Drake May and CJ. Stroud like these. This
should be wins here for the Buffalo Bills. They should
(07:18):
get there. Here's why I don't think they're going to.
I couldn't figure out why Jacksonville wasn't running the football
in the second half of that game. It was bizarre.
There was some really weird play calling being done in
the wild card weekend. Your team was driving me crazy.
I couldn't figure out what the hell Matt Lafleur was
doing in the fourth quarter. I know they couldn't run
(07:40):
the football that effectively, but at the end, how are
you not running and making the Bears use all their
timeouts and bleed the clock down as much as possible.
That made no sense. The Bills can't stop the run.
Couldn't figure out why the Jaguars were not running the
football in the second half against the Bills, Like they
were just Trevor Lawrence happy for whatever reason, and you
(08:00):
saw what happened. The game ends on an interception thrown
by Trevor Lawrence. So I think this is Sean Payton
going to take a look at this Bills team and saying,
you know what, we got to run the ball. That's
why I'm with you. The under is probably the best
player in the game at forty six and a half.
I don't think Sean Payton is going to allow bo
Nicks to throw the ball thirty times. I think he's
(08:21):
going to want this offense to be conservative and to
go ahead and rely on the defense. And frankly, Jacksonville
got after and beat up Josh Allen in their game.
I mean he had a knee, he had a head,
he had a hand, like there's all these injuries that
happened to Josh Allen in the first half, and I
was wondering whether he was going to be able to
actually make it throughout the whole game. This is the
(08:43):
best pass rush in the NFL, and these guys are
going to be at altitude, They're going to be at
home in a really tough environment, and I think they
get after him like crazy and create really big problems.
And I like the secondary a lot more than Jacksonville's secondary.
Don't think they're gonna be able to throw the ball
nearly as effectively as they do. I'll say this, Brandon
(09:04):
Cooks is not getting wide open down the field against
this team, against the Broncos the way he did against
the Jacksonville Jaguars. This defense is not gonna blow it
the way the Jaguars defense blew it by allowing a
guy off the street to come in and make the
biggest catch of the year for the Buffalo Bills. I
don't think that happens. That's why I like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Yeah, I like that call. I mean, if you force
me to play this one, that's who I'm taking. I
just I don't feel good about betting against Josh Allen
two weeks in a row and potentially losing on it.
That's the only thing. But I mean, I see true,
I see the game sort of your way. I very
much agree with the premise that there is no way
that Sean Payton ETN was averaging almost seven yards per
(09:48):
carry against the Bills running the ball and somehow he
only got ten rushing attempts. I don't think Sean Peyton
makes that same mistake. He's gonna run the ball and
take the ball out of Bowenick's his hands as much
as possible. He doesn't want this game to be Bo
Nicks versus Josh Allen. No, no, you know, even with
the better defense, you just don't want the game to
(10:09):
come down to that. Yeah, you know, shoot out at
the Okay Corral with those two, Josh Allen is winning
every time. Run the ball, play good defense, win the game.
So I think I see the game very much the
same way you do, just not quite as confident in
the Broncos as you are.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Sean Payton at home in the playoffs is seven and
three straight up the Broncos this year as underdogs went
four and one against the spread. We'll see where that
number closes, but as of the time of taping here today,
the Bills are favored on the road against the Broncos,
which I again, I don't know if we get there,
but right now it is someone of a surprise to
(10:49):
see that that's actually what we're looking at nightcap on
Saturday night. It is the San Francisco forty nine ers
limping literally into Seattle, a place where they played in
Week eighteen and they got dominated. Now they go up
against a team in Seattle who is rested and waiting,
and the twelfth man is going to be at full
throat the entire game. I like brock Party. I have
(11:13):
futures on both these teams. I have fourteen to one
tickets on the forty nine Ers in fourteen to one
tickets on Seattle. I'm not sure I'm doing anything with
this game on a side perspective as of yet. But
if I was going to bet this, I'm laying the
points because it's Sam Darnold who is favored by six
points or more, and this dude, when he's favored by
six points or more, this guy rex the opponent, and
(11:36):
he is an absolute bet on when he's favored by six, seven,
eight points, like he's going to be here in this game.
If I was going to bet it, I lay Seattle.
Not sure I'm going to because it is the playoffs
and this forty hundred team has some voodoo magic that
I can't really figure out defensively. But what do you
make of Seahawks hosting the Niners?
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I like the Seahawks a lot.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
Here seven and a half I know it's a lot
to lay against a quality team, but just a couple
of things. First of all, a huge rest advantage for
the Seahawks. They're coming off of buy the forty nine
Ers have to play on five days rest. The league
really gave them the short end of the stick, making
them play on Sunday and then having to come back
and play on Saturday.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Same thing for the Bills, by the way, too, the Broncos.
It's the same thing, both teams on short weeks. Both
of the Bills and the Niners both got the short
end of the playoff schedule.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, and then what we saw in Week eighteen. We
saw the Seahawks dominate the forty nine Ers. Final score
only thirteen to three, but it was way more one
sided than that score would suggest. The Seahawks outgained the
forty nine Ers three hundred and sixty one yards to
one hundred and seventy three. They more than doubled up
San Francisco's yardage in that game, So we have that
(12:51):
recent data points.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
This is a bad forty nine Ers defense.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Matt and I think they were very fortunate to get
a wild card matchup against an Eagles offense that had
been disjointed all season, and you know, yes, probably beyond disjointed,
flat out broken last week in the wild card round,
and then the importance of George Kittle to the forty
nine ers offense just can't be overstated. So losing him
(13:16):
to a torn achilles is just catastrophic. Not only was
he the forty nine ers best pass catcher, and I
believe Brock Purdy's passer rating when throwing to George Kittle
this season was the highest of any quarterback throwing to any.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Pass catcher this year.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
I believe of all the batteries in the league, Purdy
to Kittle was number one and passer rating. So it's
not just that though, it is like what he means
to the running game because he's such a great run blocker.
Kittle hurt his ankle in the first half of the
forty nine ers season opener and didn't come back until
Week seven, I believe, And when Kittle was out, Christian
(13:52):
McCaffrey barely averaged three yards per carry.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Running the ball.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
After kill came back, McCaffrey averaged something like four point
three yards per carry, which you know isn't great in
terms of efficiency, but it at least gave the forty
nine Ers a credible run game once Kittle was back,
and it really was incredible when Kittle was out. So
I don't know how the forty nine Ers run the
ball against the Seahawks, who have the best run defense
in the league. This just too many factors seem to
(14:21):
be working in the Seahawks favor here, So I will
lay this seven and a half points with them, and
I kind of like this game over. I mean, we
got a thirteen to three game last time around.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
I can't take.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
The under in any game involving the forty nine ers
defense right now.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Yeah, I think forty five and a half feels a
little bit light, even though they're right. We did. We
did see it differently in week A team with a
lower scoring game. But you know, the number Sam Darnold
as a six point favorite or more in his career
is thirteen and oh straight up, He's ten and three
against the number. The Seahawks have won ten straight home
playoff games outright, when you have fans in stands. Seattle
(14:57):
did lose their COVID game against the Rams in excuse
me in twenty twenty, but they have won ten straight
playoff games at home. The twelve men making its name
and making its no make itself known. If you like
the Niners. The forty nine Ers have won eleven consecutive
wild card in Divisional round playoff games as a franchise.
In Kyle Shanahan is seven and oh straight up and
(15:18):
six and one against the spread in the divisional in
wild card rounds. He's also three and oh straight up
as the on the road as a dog in both
the wild card and divisional rounds. So I'm a little
bit concerned just about the magic. And that's I mean,
I'm with you. If I'm betting this, I am laying
it with Seattle. I'll probably be teasing it if I
(15:39):
have to really, you know, think about what I'm gonna
wind up doing. I may combine the first two games.
If the Broncos are a home dog, I may take
Broncos money line. But I also may tease the Broncos
up and take this number down from Seattle from seven
and a half down to one and a half. But
I would be very surprised to see the Seahawks lose
this game here against the forty nine, just given all
(16:01):
the injuries. I mean, at some point it's gonna catch
up to the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
That's yeah, I mean that's what like those Shanahan trends are.
They do make it a little frightening to bet against him,
especially laying more than a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Yeah, that hook is a little scary.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
But it almost does seem like just because of all
the injuries, it almost seems like it's sort of as
outdated as trend as that the Steelers on Monday nights,
you know what I mean, It's just this is just
a bad Steelers team and like that was the problem
and here I think it's just like too many injuries
for the forty nine Ers to overcome against a really
(16:39):
good team on.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
Both sides of the ball.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
I mean, the Seahawks offense isn't great, but it's it's
pretty decent and Donald is a favorite exactly. Like if
this was a tougher defense, I'd have more concerns about,
you know, maybe Donald being the second best quarterback in
this matchup, But against the forty nine Ers defense, I
think Donald is probably going to look like the better
(17:03):
quarterback on Saturday Night.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Yeah, It's also you know, when you look at the Steelers,
they were down seven to six, at half like they
were in that game. That final score is not going
to be telling the story as to what that game
really was. It comes down to turnovers. If you turn
the football over, you're going to lose. In the NFL.
Somehow the Steelers could not capitalize and couldn't score off
(17:26):
all those turnovers that the Texans gave Pittsburgh. So, like
I think, if you're trying to paint the picture, how
do the forty nine Ers beat the Seahawks. Sam Darnold
throws three or four picks or he fumbles the football.
That's how the upset happens is if there's turnovers. Because
I couldn't get over and I was on Pittsburgh. I
(17:46):
couldn't get over the fact that they I mean, that
game should have been, you know, seventeen to seven, twenty
to seven by the time we get hit the half.
The inability to capitalize on the multiple mistakes by the Texans,
they couldn't get the snapcount right game with the balls
on the field five times, there's five fumbles and they won,
and they throw a pick in the red zone like
(18:07):
that in the postseason, that does not happen, and that
happens like in Week three of the NFL. You can
get away with that, but in the playoffs you're not
supposed to be able to get away with that and
actually win the game. So if you're trying to paint
the picture, how do the Niners win? That's how they win.
They have a crazy game with turnovers, and the turnover
luck goes their way.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
And their offense is better than the Steelers, they might
be able to capitalize on those kinds of gestay, certainly
more than the Steelers.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
Did on Monday Night.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
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(19:49):
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Speaker 1 (19:56):
We go to my team, the Patriots, at home, and
I Am going to be honest, I did not think
they were going to be favored against the Texans after
watching what that defense did in the second half to
the Steelers. Patriots are two and a half point favorites.
We'll see where the number winds up going here. But
Drake May, if we get back to three, which might
(20:18):
happen if it's three and it closes at three, Drake
May is eleven to zero straight up. When the Patriots
are three point favorites, are more. I initially was very
concerned about this team and very nervous about the Texans,
and then did some diligence talk to some people, had conversations,
and I flipped and I'm on the Patriots. And the
(20:40):
reason why I'm on the Patriots is because the offense
for Houston is not going to be able to run
the football. And this is a fate of CJ. Stroud
on the road, who played horribly against the Steelers. He
was zero and two before that, and you saw why
he was ozero and two before that, and now no
Nico Collins, who should be out with the concussion. I
(21:01):
don't think CJ. Stroud can do it. Pat I'll take
the Patriots laying two and a half or three.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
This is the game in the divisional round that vexes
me more than any other. Matt like the line and
the total feel exactly right to me. And the Texans
defense is the best unit in this game, I think.
And Drake May did enough against a good Chargers pass defense,
but it wasn't a great game for him. He made
(21:28):
some mistakes, he took five sacks through an interception, fumbled
was it once or twice?
Speaker 3 (21:34):
Twice?
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Right?
Speaker 2 (21:36):
And now Drake May runs into an even better pass
defense with the Texans that he just faced with the Chargers.
Not that Drake May can't conquer any pass defense, but
it's gonna be a challenge for him, and I don't
expect him or any other quarterback to light up the Texans.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
Yeah, the Nico thing is interesting, Matt, So.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Only five days in between games, and you would think
it's ninety nine point nine percent that he misses this game.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
But you know, if they were to rush him through protocol,
and I would not.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Doubt that it happens like that will just kind of
lay bare the fact that the concussion protocol is kind
of a joke if he gets through it.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Now.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Christian Gonzalez also is a concussion, but he does have
a full week and doesn't have to travel, so I
would say his odds of clearing the protocol are much
better than eCos. And you know, I like Jayden Higgins,
the rookie receiver for the Texans, a lot. I think
he's going to be a really, really good player, But
if he has to go against Christian Gonzales, I don't
(22:45):
know if he can be the difference maker the Texans
need in the passing game, because, like you, I don't
think the Texans are going to run the ball as
well as they did against the Steelers.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
That kind of surprised me.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
The Steelers have a pretty good run defense and what
he Mark said, over one hundred yards, but I don't
see that happening against the Patriots now that they've got,
you know, basically their core personnel that made their run
defense so good early in the season. It's all back
and healthy again, Milton Way, and I think people forgot.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
I think a lot of people forgot, well what the
Patriots defense looked like up the middle when they had
Robert Spulane and Milton Williams both healthy and playing, because
you can't run the middle on the Patriots anymore. You
can bounce into the outside and you mean, you could
do some speed stuff to them, but you're not going
to go up the middle on them the way that
Marx did in the game against the Steelers. Like that
was North South running against the Steelers, and I couldn't
(23:38):
believe how much success they had. I don't think they're
going to have that success. And then that puts even
more pressure on CJ. Stroud And I don't believe Nico
Collins is going to play. Given how hard he hit
his head. Gonzales, it was sort of like a what
he had a concussion from that, Like it didn't look
like that big of a play. So not to say
that there's different levels of concussion, but they're kind of all.
(24:00):
And Nico Collins was he had carted off the field.
Gonzales didn't get carted off the field. He walked off
the field under his own volition and they didn't come back.
So I think Gonzales is going to play. I don't
think Nico Collins is going to play. And I think
the lack of playmakers on the road for the Texans
is going to be a really big problem against the
Patriot defense. That's why I love the under that this
(24:20):
is a dead undergame to me because I don't think
the Patriots scored more than seventeen points. I think that
that's their ceiling. But on the flip side, the Chargers
scored three. I think the Texans score a little bit
more than that. But it's like a seventeen to thirteen
type final to me here where the Patriots win, barely cover,
but they win, and I think the home crowd matters.
(24:43):
I can't wait to see what the weather looks like here,
and traditionally teams dome. Teams going north in late January
and the divisional round don't fare very well in New England.
And we'll see if mother Nature shows up and delivers
nasty batch to the Texans. But this is about defense,
This is about protecting the football and I think getting
that first win under Drake May's belt when Drake May
(25:05):
played poorly was huge for the confidence of this team
because now I think they will be a bit more conservative,
run the ball a bit more and let's see what
they do against this Texans defense. I mean, I'm with you.
The offensive line really big problem like a really big
problem with Will Anderson and company coming after Drake May.
He hung onto the football way too long. That was
(25:28):
September Drake May that we saw in the first playoff
game that can't happen against Texans.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, and for what it's worth, Matt, as a Patriots fan,
I think you would like the conditions a little more
wintry than the early forecast is correct calling for six
days out, so certainly this could change. But right now
they're saying thirty four degrees at kickoff, light wins and
no precipitation.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
So pretty yeah, pretty playable.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
I think if you're on the Texan side, you like
those conditions.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
One hundred percent. Seawn Smith's referee in case you guys
want to handicap referees. Home teams are twelve and three
ats with Sean Smith as the head official this year.
That was the best mark in the NFL. So from
an official standpoint, Patriots are happy to see Sean Smith
being the referee. Guys. You can track these bets and
get line alert straight to your phone by downloading the
(26:19):
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(26:42):
com slash Premium. Okay, we go to the night game.
Are you gonna hate watch this? Because of the Bears
here and what they did to the Packers? Because Matthew
Stafford against Caleb Williams, Rams are favored here in this game.
I think that they should be. The total is pretty
high at fifty one and a half. I think both
(27:02):
of us agree on the winner of this game, but
I think we disagree on the way that we get
there from a total perspective. Where are you on Rams
at the Bears?
Speaker 2 (27:10):
Yeah, the Bears defense is really bad and we saw
that in the first half of the game against the Packers.
And then I agree with you, Matt, some of the
play calling and offensive scheme not Matt Lafleur's finest hour
in the second half of that game, so it's bad.
And then they lost linebacker TJ. Edwards, who is an
(27:31):
important blue guy for that defense. And the Bears also
had another pretty important injury. They lost their left tackle
Ozzie Trapillo, who's played really well in his rookie season.
Neither of those guys are going to be back.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
They're both out for the rest of the playoffs. Those
are major injuries.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
The Rams offense is just so dangerous and well rounded.
They can beat you through the air. They've got two
dynamic pass catchers, they've got two dynamic running backs, and
the Bears are chronically well Caleb Williams, at least, he
is a chronically slow starter, and I feel like a
slow start could be just fatal in this game. So
(28:10):
I do really like the Rams here as far as
the total, matt Like, my first thought was over because
I'm just betting this for.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
The Bears defense.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Basically, feeling like the Rams could quite easily put up
thirty plus points. And you know, this Bears offense is
pretty good too. I think they're going to score. But
the forecast right now, they're calling for a game time
temperature of around eight to ten degrees and breathe ten
to twenty miles an hour. That makes me feel a
(28:40):
little less confident in the Rams, even though I think
they're clearly the superior team. And it definitely makes me
feel less confident in anything over fifty. So I mean,
unless the forecasting I'm not betting this right now, I'm
hoping the weather forecast is going to bring the total
down to something like forty eight forty eight and a half, Okay,
(29:02):
then I'll jump on the over.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Okay, fifty one and a half. I like the under
just because it's a playoff game and I can't bet
over fifty one and a half in a playoff game.
I just I've watched too much football to go. Okay,
maybe if it may be a shootout, but I'd be
very surprised in Chicago if we get a shootout. Turnovers,
and the Bears have been extremely fortunate this year with
turnover luck. If they get turnovers, yes, that's one way
(29:24):
how they could score and keep themselves in the game.
But if this number goes to four, this is nuts.
Home dogs of four points or more in the last
fifty years in the playoffs are nine to zero against
the number. So let's watch and see it's three and
a half. If it gets to four, that's kind of
the kiss of death here for a road playoff team.
Again we talked about at the top, this is a
(29:45):
very wonky year in terms of the numbers and the
betting because the NFL has been very topsy turvy and
the Rams I'm with you are the superior team, but
this is the weather could be the ultimate equalizer. The crowd.
I mean, Chicago is going bonkers for the Bears right now.
That's going to be a really hard environment for the
(30:06):
Rams to walk in. And they did not pass the
weather test last year in this round at Philadelphia, where
the snow showed up and the whole game went to
crap for the Rams. They couldn't do anything in the weather.
So this is another weather conversation for the La Rams.
Can they, as a West Coast team, Dome team, go
to a very difficult weather environment and win. Maybe. I mean,
(30:30):
if Matthew Stafford plays the way he played last week,
sure they should win this football game. If Kayleb Williams
and I'm with You gets off to the same start
he had, If it's twenty one to three at half, again,
I don't see the Rams making the mistakes the Packers made,
and the Rams win the game. But if it's tied
at the break, if it's ten to ten at the break,
(30:52):
I don't know. I mean, I'm with you. I like
the Rams. I think the better play is to lay
the points with the Rams, But I don't want to
go near four. Needs to be three, three and a half.
We get to four, I'm gonna be a little bit
more on the hesitant side to back la.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
Yeah, let me ask you about that.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
And this is obviously unknowable, and more about your instinct,
since you have followed this kind of stuff for a
long time, which way would you anticipate based on what
we saw with the Rams and the smart money last
week against the Panthers? Do you anticipate this getting to four?
Is it more likely the UH to go the other way?
Speaker 1 (31:26):
In your opinion, I think it's more likely to go down.
I personally, I think it's more likely to go I mean,
it opened at four, it was back to three and
a half immediately, so there are some fours in the market.
But my gut tells me he closes at three, just
because that's an I mean, I think the pros are
going to be too greedy. They're going to take the
points and just say, you know, even though the Rams
(31:48):
are the better team on paper, it's a road team,
it's a road favorite. It's a West Coast team, Dome
team in ten degree temperatures in Chicago, slick football, you know,
different type of environment. Take the home team that's used
to practicing in it and used to working with it.
So I mean, early indications are that the Rams are
(32:09):
going to get a lot of love and that the
over is gonna get a lot of love. But I
think once the market, once the limits open up, I
think you're gonna see a lot of under money and
you're gonna see a lot of a lot of Rams
money or sorry Bears money show up in the market
to drive the thing. So I think closes a three.
Speaker 3 (32:23):
Yeah, I tend to agree with you on that.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
I'm also looking. I don't like Ben Johnson, It's gonna
be I don't like Ben Johnson. I didn't. That's why
I bet against him against Matt Lafleur. I like the
creativity that Ben Johnson has. I don't like the bravado
and the ego of Ben Johnson because I think he
coaches with ego, so he's going to target on his back.
I think anytime an NFL coach and the official account
(32:49):
of the team puts out a video of the coat
saying bleep the Packers or bleep whoever in that way,
and I bleeping hate those guys. The NFL, I generally
doesn't like this stuff. Okay, they generally don't like coaches
that act this way. And not to say that a
call is going to go to go against Chicago or whatnot,
but I I've watched a football that like, I'm not
(33:10):
sure that the Bears are going to be looking for
any calls coming up in this game. Like if there's
a crucial decision, a crucial call, I wouldn't want to
be on Chicago needing that given what Ben Johnson's been doing.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Yeah, it seems like, you know, Ben Johnson, I obviously
he's not making any friends within the Packers organization, and
it seems like he's burned some bridges within the Lions
organization too.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, here's the thing. It's not only are you.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
You know, incentivizing those two teams to really get up
for you in future meetings, Like Dan Campbell and Matt
Leaflora have friends in the league, like if you run
into one of their friends, like they might not hesitate
to stick it to you, like if they get you down.
So it is probably something that in hindsight in a
(33:57):
few years, Ben Johnson might regret.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
I would agree. I think it's a youthful thing. And again,
I like hatred in sports. I'm a Red Sox fan,
I'm a Patriot fan. I hate the Jets, I hate
the Yankees. I like it. I don't like that these
teams have become so buddy buddy. And it started with
David Ortiz becoming friends with all the Yankees, and that
really cool down the rivalry between the Red Sox and
the Yankees. I like blood feuds. I like this from
(34:21):
a sport perspective, a content perspective. I like it. If
I were a Bear fan, I'd be concerned. I'd go,
uh oh, this is kind of out of character for
anybody with Chicago. Like you know, Mike Dicka was a stoic,
very passionate person. Jim McMahon, I get it. But your
quarterback can be like that. I'm not sure you want
your head coach to be like that, because he does
(34:43):
coach play calling from ego. Sometimes and every once in
a while, almost once a game, I'll ask myself what
was he doing? Why did Ben Johnson call that play?
Why did he call that? And it sometimes backfires in
a bad spot for the Bears from a referee standpoint.
For this game, Ed Hockley, sorry Hockey, son of Ed Hockeley.
Sean Hockeley is the head official over the last since
(35:05):
two thousand and eight, the under seventy one fifty four
and three when Shawn Hockley is the head referee, that
is the third best mark of the fifty four refs
that have worked games since two thousand and eight in
the NFL. So they don't throw many flags, so they're
gonna let the guys play, which I think helps the
Rams to be quite honest. In terms of this, I
(35:26):
think the Bears receivers are going to want to see
flags come out to help Caleb Whinning's scrambling around and
running for his life like he likes to do. I
think they would rather have flags come out, so not
a flag happy crew showing up in Chicago coming up
for this, guys, reminder that if you have not gone
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(35:49):
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pat anyone that you like going in. I know it's
only Tuesday, but anything you like for the weekend.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
I think right now I feel most confident about Seahawks
minus seven and a half, Like that's just there are
too many things working against the forty nine ers, the
rest advantage, the Kittle injury, you know, all the defensive
injuries that have piled up, and what we saw in
week eighteen. I just feel like seven and a half
is a scary number. But I think i'd lay nine.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
Yeah, I think I think it's going to be pretty
one sided in that game. I'll be surprised if it isn't.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
Yeah. I think from a Seahawks perspective, you win that
game easily, not a lot of stress, and then you
host the NFC Championship game and you know, regardless of
which team shows up. It's probably gonna be the Rams.
They're going to show up. And you got a barn
burner of a football game between the Rams and the Seahawks,
and that number is probably three. And we see if
(37:04):
Seattle can get themselves to the super Bowl. It's a
West Coast team with the West Coast Super Bowl. You
know that Seahawk fans are going to invade San Francisco.
I mean, if the Niners somehow shocked the world, they're
going to be on the road, most likely to LA
with a chance to play the Super Bowl in their
home building being all banged up. Like, there's so many
cool storylines that could come out of this here on
(37:25):
the NFC NFC side of the things, from the AFC
side of things, for me, I like the under the
best in the Patriots Texans game. I don't think we're
seeing any offense from either side. I think it's an
under forty one, and I'd be surprised if that number
closes in the forties. My gut tells me we're probably
at thirty nine thirty eight. Probably from a closing perspective,
Pats probably don't score more than seventeen points, and I
(37:45):
don't trust ce De Stroud to do very much against
his Patriots defense if he even with Nico Collins without
them even less so so for me, I think it's
an undergame with Patriots and the Texans. We're going to
be back next week to recap all of this and
to preview the championship rounds. It's getting down there. Only
three after this weekend. We've got three NFL football games
(38:07):
left in the season, which is a bummer. Best of
luck to you guys in your bets. He's Pat fitz Morris.
I'm at Parol. Talk to you next week here on
the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Thanks for listening to the
Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
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What's up, guys. How are you welcome into an early
look at the divisional round games. He is Pat fitz Morris.
I am Att Parolz. We are here on the Betting
Pro YouTube channel to give you picks, plays and thoughts,
sides and totals for the weekend. But Pat, let's put
a bow on the wild card weekend after what we saw.
It was interesting. In the beginning, it was all dogs.
(00:22):
In the end, it was two favorites, Patriots and the Texans.
We'll talk about here in a second, winning and covering.
What was your overall takeaway from the first round of
the knockout playoffs.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think we got the unpredictability that we thought we
were going to get. We had a lot of close games.
Jaguars Bills was a barn burner, I mean really didn't.
The first four games all come down to the final
possession of the game. So yeah, it was just totally
up for grabs. We found the Steelers were the one
(00:52):
team that really had no business in the playoffs at all.
And you know, very convincing showing by your patrin. It's
against a good, if not flawed, fatally flawed team because
of their offensive line, but yeah, I thought, all in all,
Man could not have asked for more entertaining Saturday of football. Obviously,
(01:15):
I wasn't real happy with the way the night game went.
And I'm gonna have to forbid you from ever wearing
a Packers hat on the day of a Packers playoff
game again, Matt.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
But no, it was a pretty fun week in of football.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Up by eighteen points in in the second half, like
zero to five, ending to the year for the Packers.
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Late game meltdowns are in Matt Lafleur's DNA. And you
want to know a fun stat, Matt, not if you're
a Packers fan, Packers and Bears played three times. Do
you know how many offensive snaps the Bears took with
a lead in those three games.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
I'm gonna say four zero.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
Never, they never took one snap with a lead and
managed to win two of those three games.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
And of them that's amazing. Wow, that is that's amazing.
Oh my gosh. All right, interesting stuff. A couple of
things to look at as we go ahead. From a
trend perspective. If the Rams and the Bills both closes favorites,
it'll be the first time in fifty four years where
(02:26):
we've had two road favorites in the divisional round of
the playoffs. We just don't see this very often. This
is a very unique year. Last week we had a
lot of road favorites. The Bills went off as a
road dog, but they were a road favorite for most
of the week. We saw the biggest number in the
history of the NFL from a road playoff perspective, with
(02:48):
ten and a half for the Rams. They won, but
they did not cover. So this is and you mentioned
it in the in the top about the unpredictability of
what we thought could excuse me, could happen it from
a betting perspective, it was a very unpredictable weekend in
terms of where the money was going. And the books
did fairly well because well, the professionals came in and
(03:10):
hammered the Rams all week long, got that thing up
to a high as eleven before the buyeback happened. That
came no close and it didn't come close to covering.
And then we have you know, now we've got the
teams on the by playing, we have Seattle, and we
have Denver coming in that's obviously going to impact where
we are from a numbers perspective, this is to me
a very difficult handicapping weekend. But the Broncos being a
(03:34):
dog is still and we'll get into it. I'm still
stunned at this that they are a dog. It's the
fourth time in the last forty years a team off
of bye in the divisional round is not favored like
this is. They are the number one seed and they're
off a by like this is always one hundred percent
they're going to be the favorite, and right now the
(03:57):
Broncos are a dog to the bill on Saturday. Let's
start with that game, Pat, I don't understand this at all.
I like Broncos money line gave me Denver to win
this game. What am I missing?
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Well?
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Do you think the Broncos are ultimately going to go
off as dogs in this one? Because this line has
been all over the place, and you know, I was
looking at various sites this morning. I didn't It's a
different number on every site right right.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
This one is bouncing around all over the place.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
So I wouldn't be surprised if the Broncos wound up
being one and a half point favorites in this one.
But maybe not because people believe in the Josh Allen magic,
and that is kind of where I'm at. Matt, like
I've already lost once betting against Josh Allen. We both
like the Jaguars money line. I don't think it was
a bad bet. I mean that game went right down
(04:50):
to the end. But yeah, I do see it the
same way you see it. The Broncos defense is the
best unit in this game, and they can ply immense
pressure on quarterbacks. They have the most sacks in the
league by nine, and if you go by DVA, the
Denver run defense is actually better than the Jaguars run defense.
(05:11):
And James Cook had fifteen carries for forty six yards
against the Jaguars last week. But then again, betting on
Bow Nicks against well, I'm not sure i'd call the
Bill's a good pass defense, but it's an above average
pass defense, and Knicks has not played that well since
his four touchdown game against the Packers in Week fifteen.
(05:34):
Last three games, he's been pretty average to maybe below.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
Now maybe R J.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Harvey carries the day against a bad Bill's run defense,
but Harvey didn't really pop until December, and he's averaging
three point seven yards of carry I don't think I'm
gonna be betting either side in this game. I just
don't have a good feel for it. Maybe you're feeling
stronger about the Broncos than I am. I do feel
better about betting the under in this game forty six
(06:01):
point five. I just it's hard for me to imagine
either team putting up more than about twenty seven points.
That that's the ceiling, and I think the floor could
be a lot lower with each team's individual total in
this game.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
So forty six and a half.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Granted, the weather is looking like it's going to be
just fine forty eight degrees light wind according to the
forecast I looked at. But you know, I kind of
like the under here. I'm not touching either side in
this game.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
I like the Broncos to win the game. And as
a Patriot fan, and we're talking about the second game,
I would love Buffalo to win this game. I would
be afraid of the Bills showing up for an AFC
Championship game in New England because that is ratings gold
and that is a high pressure situation for Drake May
and the Patriots to go up against the guy who
has for the last five seasons owned the AFC East
(06:56):
and having a chance to go to the Super Bowl,
which was and if Josh Allen can't do it this year,
I'm not sure Josh Allen will ever play in a
Super Bowl if he cannot get past who he has
to get passed, And so right now in his path
is Bonis, Drake May and CJ. Stroud like these. This
should be wins here for the Buffalo Bills. They should
(07:18):
get there. Here's why I don't think they're going to.
I couldn't figure out why Jacksonville wasn't running the football
in the second half of that game. It was bizarre.
There was some really weird play calling being done in
the wild card weekend. Your team was driving me crazy.
I couldn't figure out what the hell Matt Lafleur was
doing in the fourth quarter. I know they couldn't run
(07:40):
the football that effectively, but at the end, how are
you not running and making the Bears use all their
timeouts and bleed the clock down as much as possible.
That made no sense. The Bills can't stop the run.
Couldn't figure out why the Jaguars were not running the
football in the second half against the Bills, Like they
were just Trevor Lawrence happy for whatever reason, and you
(08:00):
saw what happened. The game ends on an interception thrown
by Trevor Lawrence. So I think this is Sean Payton
going to take a look at this Bills team and saying,
you know what, we got to run the ball. That's
why I'm with you. The under is probably the best
player in the game at forty six and a half.
I don't think Sean Payton is going to allow bo
Nicks to throw the ball thirty times. I think he's
(08:21):
going to want this offense to be conservative and to
go ahead and rely on the defense. And frankly, Jacksonville
got after and beat up Josh Allen in their game.
I mean he had a knee, he had a head,
he had a hand, like there's all these injuries that
happened to Josh Allen in the first half, and I
was wondering whether he was going to be able to
actually make it throughout the whole game. This is the
(08:43):
best pass rush in the NFL, and these guys are
going to be at altitude, They're going to be at
home in a really tough environment, and I think they
get after him like crazy and create really big problems.
And I like the secondary a lot more than Jacksonville's secondary.
Don't think they're gonna be able to throw the ball
nearly as effectively as they do. I'll say this, Brandon
(09:04):
Cooks is not getting wide open down the field against
this team, against the Broncos the way he did against
the Jacksonville Jaguars. This defense is not gonna blow it
the way the Jaguars defense blew it by allowing a
guy off the street to come in and make the
biggest catch of the year for the Buffalo Bills. I
don't think that happens. That's why I like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
Yeah, I like that call. I mean, if you force
me to play this one, that's who I'm taking. I
just I don't feel good about betting against Josh Allen
two weeks in a row and potentially losing on it.
That's the only thing. But I mean, I see true,
I see the game sort of your way. I very
much agree with the premise that there is no way
that Sean Payton ETN was averaging almost seven yards per
(09:48):
carry against the Bills running the ball and somehow he
only got ten rushing attempts. I don't think Sean Peyton
makes that same mistake. He's gonna run the ball and
take the ball out of Bowenick's his hands as much
as possible. He doesn't want this game to be Bo
Nicks versus Josh Allen. No, no, you know, even with
the better defense, you just don't want the game to
(10:09):
come down to that. Yeah, you know, shoot out at
the Okay Corral with those two, Josh Allen is winning
every time. Run the ball, play good defense, win the game.
So I think I see the game very much the
same way you do, just not quite as confident in
the Broncos as you are.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Sean Payton at home in the playoffs is seven and
three straight up the Broncos this year as underdogs went
four and one against the spread. We'll see where that
number closes, but as of the time of taping here today,
the Bills are favored on the road against the Broncos,
which I again, I don't know if we get there,
but right now it is someone of a surprise to
(10:49):
see that that's actually what we're looking at nightcap on
Saturday night. It is the San Francisco forty nine ers
limping literally into Seattle, a place where they played in
Week eighteen and they got dominated. Now they go up
against a team in Seattle who is rested and waiting,
and the twelfth man is going to be at full
throat the entire game. I like brock Party. I have
(11:13):
futures on both these teams. I have fourteen to one
tickets on the forty nine Ers in fourteen to one
tickets on Seattle. I'm not sure I'm doing anything with
this game on a side perspective as of yet. But
if I was going to bet this, I'm laying the
points because it's Sam Darnold who is favored by six
points or more, and this dude, when he's favored by
six points or more, this guy rex the opponent, and
(11:36):
he is an absolute bet on when he's favored by six, seven,
eight points, like he's going to be here in this game.
If I was going to bet it, I lay Seattle.
Not sure I'm going to because it is the playoffs
and this forty hundred team has some voodoo magic that
I can't really figure out defensively. But what do you
make of Seahawks hosting the Niners?
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (11:56):
I like the Seahawks a lot.
Speaker 2 (11:57):
Here seven and a half I know it's a lot
to lay against a quality team, but just a couple
of things. First of all, a huge rest advantage for
the Seahawks. They're coming off of buy the forty nine
Ers have to play on five days rest. The league
really gave them the short end of the stick, making
them play on Sunday and then having to come back
and play on Saturday.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Same thing for the Bills, by the way, too, the Broncos.
It's the same thing, both teams on short weeks. Both
of the Bills and the Niners both got the short
end of the playoff schedule.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yeah, and then what we saw in Week eighteen. We
saw the Seahawks dominate the forty nine Ers. Final score
only thirteen to three, but it was way more one
sided than that score would suggest. The Seahawks outgained the
forty nine Ers three hundred and sixty one yards to
one hundred and seventy three. They more than doubled up
San Francisco's yardage in that game, So we have that
(12:51):
recent data points.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
This is a bad forty nine Ers defense.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
Matt and I think they were very fortunate to get
a wild card matchup against an Eagles offense that had
been disjointed all season, and you know, yes, probably beyond disjointed,
flat out broken last week in the wild card round,
and then the importance of George Kittle to the forty
nine ers offense just can't be overstated. So losing him
(13:16):
to a torn achilles is just catastrophic. Not only was
he the forty nine ers best pass catcher, and I
believe Brock Purdy's passer rating when throwing to George Kittle
this season was the highest of any quarterback throwing to any.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Pass catcher this year.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
I believe of all the batteries in the league, Purdy
to Kittle was number one and passer rating. So it's
not just that though, it is like what he means
to the running game because he's such a great run blocker.
Kittle hurt his ankle in the first half of the
forty nine ers season opener and didn't come back until
Week seven, I believe, And when Kittle was out, Christian
(13:52):
McCaffrey barely averaged three yards per carry.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Running the ball.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
After kill came back, McCaffrey averaged something like four point
three yards per carry, which you know isn't great in
terms of efficiency, but it at least gave the forty
nine Ers a credible run game once Kittle was back,
and it really was incredible when Kittle was out. So
I don't know how the forty nine Ers run the
ball against the Seahawks, who have the best run defense
in the league. This just too many factors seem to
(14:21):
be working in the Seahawks favor here, So I will
lay this seven and a half points with them, and
I kind of like this game over. I mean, we
got a thirteen to three game last time around.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
I can't take.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
The under in any game involving the forty nine ers
defense right now.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Yeah, I think forty five and a half feels a
little bit light, even though they're right. We did. We
did see it differently in week A team with a
lower scoring game. But you know, the number Sam Darnold
as a six point favorite or more in his career
is thirteen and oh straight up, He's ten and three
against the number. The Seahawks have won ten straight home
playoff games outright, when you have fans in stands. Seattle
(14:57):
did lose their COVID game against the Rams in excuse
me in twenty twenty, but they have won ten straight
playoff games at home. The twelve men making its name
and making its no make itself known. If you like
the Niners. The forty nine Ers have won eleven consecutive
wild card in Divisional round playoff games as a franchise.
In Kyle Shanahan is seven and oh straight up and
(15:18):
six and one against the spread in the divisional in
wild card rounds. He's also three and oh straight up
as the on the road as a dog in both
the wild card and divisional rounds. So I'm a little
bit concerned just about the magic. And that's I mean,
I'm with you. If I'm betting this, I am laying
it with Seattle. I'll probably be teasing it if I
(15:39):
have to really, you know, think about what I'm gonna
wind up doing. I may combine the first two games.
If the Broncos are a home dog, I may take
Broncos money line. But I also may tease the Broncos
up and take this number down from Seattle from seven
and a half down to one and a half. But
I would be very surprised to see the Seahawks lose
this game here against the forty nine, just given all
(16:01):
the injuries. I mean, at some point it's gonna catch
up to the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
That's yeah, I mean that's what like those Shanahan trends are.
They do make it a little frightening to bet against him,
especially laying more than a touchdown.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Yeah, that hook is a little scary.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
But it almost does seem like just because of all
the injuries, it almost seems like it's sort of as
outdated as trend as that the Steelers on Monday nights,
you know what I mean, It's just this is just
a bad Steelers team and like that was the problem
and here I think it's just like too many injuries
for the forty nine Ers to overcome against a really
(16:39):
good team on.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
Both sides of the ball.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
I mean, the Seahawks offense isn't great, but it's it's
pretty decent and Donald is a favorite exactly. Like if
this was a tougher defense, I'd have more concerns about,
you know, maybe Donald being the second best quarterback in
this matchup, But against the forty nine Ers defense, I
think Donald is probably going to look like the better
(17:03):
quarterback on Saturday Night.
Speaker 1 (17:05):
Yeah, It's also you know, when you look at the Steelers,
they were down seven to six, at half like they
were in that game. That final score is not going
to be telling the story as to what that game
really was. It comes down to turnovers. If you turn
the football over, you're going to lose. In the NFL.
Somehow the Steelers could not capitalize and couldn't score off
(17:26):
all those turnovers that the Texans gave Pittsburgh. So, like
I think, if you're trying to paint the picture, how
do the forty nine Ers beat the Seahawks. Sam Darnold
throws three or four picks or he fumbles the football.
That's how the upset happens is if there's turnovers. Because
I couldn't get over and I was on Pittsburgh. I
(17:46):
couldn't get over the fact that they I mean, that
game should have been, you know, seventeen to seven, twenty
to seven by the time we get hit the half.
The inability to capitalize on the multiple mistakes by the Texans,
they couldn't get the snapcount right game with the balls
on the field five times, there's five fumbles and they won,
and they throw a pick in the red zone like
(18:07):
that in the postseason, that does not happen, and that
happens like in Week three of the NFL. You can
get away with that, but in the playoffs you're not
supposed to be able to get away with that and
actually win the game. So if you're trying to paint
the picture, how do the Niners win? That's how they win.
They have a crazy game with turnovers, and the turnover
luck goes their way.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
And their offense is better than the Steelers, they might
be able to capitalize on those kinds of gestay, certainly
more than the Steelers.
Speaker 3 (18:32):
Did on Monday Night.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
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Speaker 1 (19:56):
We go to my team, the Patriots, at home, and
I Am going to be honest, I did not think
they were going to be favored against the Texans after
watching what that defense did in the second half to
the Steelers. Patriots are two and a half point favorites.
We'll see where the number winds up going here. But
Drake May, if we get back to three, which might
(20:18):
happen if it's three and it closes at three, Drake
May is eleven to zero straight up. When the Patriots
are three point favorites, are more. I initially was very
concerned about this team and very nervous about the Texans,
and then did some diligence talk to some people, had conversations,
and I flipped and I'm on the Patriots. And the
(20:40):
reason why I'm on the Patriots is because the offense
for Houston is not going to be able to run
the football. And this is a fate of CJ. Stroud
on the road, who played horribly against the Steelers. He
was zero and two before that, and you saw why
he was ozero and two before that, and now no
Nico Collins, who should be out with the concussion. I
(21:01):
don't think CJ. Stroud can do it. Pat I'll take
the Patriots laying two and a half or three.
Speaker 2 (21:08):
This is the game in the divisional round that vexes
me more than any other. Matt like the line and
the total feel exactly right to me. And the Texans
defense is the best unit in this game, I think.
And Drake May did enough against a good Chargers pass defense,
but it wasn't a great game for him. He made
(21:28):
some mistakes, he took five sacks through an interception, fumbled
was it once or twice?
Speaker 3 (21:34):
Twice?
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Right?
Speaker 2 (21:36):
And now Drake May runs into an even better pass
defense with the Texans that he just faced with the Chargers.
Not that Drake May can't conquer any pass defense, but
it's gonna be a challenge for him, and I don't
expect him or any other quarterback to light up the Texans.
Speaker 3 (21:56):
Yeah, the Nico thing is interesting, Matt, So.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Only five days in between games, and you would think
it's ninety nine point nine percent that he misses this game.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
But you know, if they were to rush him through protocol,
and I would not.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Doubt that it happens like that will just kind of
lay bare the fact that the concussion protocol is kind
of a joke if he gets through it.
Speaker 3 (22:23):
Now.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
Christian Gonzalez also is a concussion, but he does have
a full week and doesn't have to travel, so I
would say his odds of clearing the protocol are much
better than eCos. And you know, I like Jayden Higgins,
the rookie receiver for the Texans, a lot. I think
he's going to be a really, really good player, But
if he has to go against Christian Gonzales, I don't
(22:45):
know if he can be the difference maker the Texans
need in the passing game, because, like you, I don't
think the Texans are going to run the ball as
well as they did against the Steelers.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
That kind of surprised me.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
The Steelers have a pretty good run defense and what
he Mark said, over one hundred yards, but I don't
see that happening against the Patriots now that they've got,
you know, basically their core personnel that made their run
defense so good early in the season. It's all back
and healthy again, Milton Way, and I think people forgot.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
I think a lot of people forgot, well what the
Patriots defense looked like up the middle when they had
Robert Spulane and Milton Williams both healthy and playing, because
you can't run the middle on the Patriots anymore. You
can bounce into the outside and you mean, you could
do some speed stuff to them, but you're not going
to go up the middle on them the way that
Marx did in the game against the Steelers. Like that
was North South running against the Steelers, and I couldn't
(23:38):
believe how much success they had. I don't think they're
going to have that success. And then that puts even
more pressure on CJ. Stroud And I don't believe Nico
Collins is going to play. Given how hard he hit
his head. Gonzales, it was sort of like a what
he had a concussion from that, Like it didn't look
like that big of a play. So not to say
that there's different levels of concussion, but they're kind of all.
(24:00):
And Nico Collins was he had carted off the field.
Gonzales didn't get carted off the field. He walked off
the field under his own volition and they didn't come back.
So I think Gonzales is going to play. I don't
think Nico Collins is going to play. And I think
the lack of playmakers on the road for the Texans
is going to be a really big problem against the
Patriot defense. That's why I love the under that this
(24:20):
is a dead undergame to me because I don't think
the Patriots scored more than seventeen points. I think that
that's their ceiling. But on the flip side, the Chargers
scored three. I think the Texans score a little bit
more than that. But it's like a seventeen to thirteen
type final to me here where the Patriots win, barely cover,
but they win, and I think the home crowd matters.
(24:43):
I can't wait to see what the weather looks like here,
and traditionally teams dome. Teams going north in late January
and the divisional round don't fare very well in New England.
And we'll see if mother Nature shows up and delivers
nasty batch to the Texans. But this is about defense,
This is about protecting the football and I think getting
that first win under Drake May's belt when Drake May
(25:05):
played poorly was huge for the confidence of this team
because now I think they will be a bit more conservative,
run the ball a bit more and let's see what
they do against this Texans defense. I mean, I'm with you.
The offensive line really big problem like a really big
problem with Will Anderson and company coming after Drake May.
He hung onto the football way too long. That was
(25:28):
September Drake May that we saw in the first playoff
game that can't happen against Texans.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, and for what it's worth, Matt, as a Patriots fan,
I think you would like the conditions a little more
wintry than the early forecast is correct calling for six
days out, so certainly this could change. But right now
they're saying thirty four degrees at kickoff, light wins and
no precipitation.
Speaker 3 (25:51):
So pretty yeah, pretty playable.
Speaker 2 (25:53):
I think if you're on the Texan side, you like
those conditions.
Speaker 1 (25:58):
One hundred percent. Seawn Smith's referee in case you guys
want to handicap referees. Home teams are twelve and three
ats with Sean Smith as the head official this year.
That was the best mark in the NFL. So from
an official standpoint, Patriots are happy to see Sean Smith
being the referee. Guys. You can track these bets and
get line alert straight to your phone by downloading the
(26:19):
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(26:42):
com slash Premium. Okay, we go to the night game.
Are you gonna hate watch this? Because of the Bears
here and what they did to the Packers? Because Matthew
Stafford against Caleb Williams, Rams are favored here in this game.
I think that they should be. The total is pretty
high at fifty one and a half. I think both
(27:02):
of us agree on the winner of this game, but
I think we disagree on the way that we get
there from a total perspective. Where are you on Rams
at the Bears?
Speaker 2 (27:10):
Yeah, the Bears defense is really bad and we saw
that in the first half of the game against the Packers.
And then I agree with you, Matt, some of the
play calling and offensive scheme not Matt Lafleur's finest hour
in the second half of that game, so it's bad.
And then they lost linebacker TJ. Edwards, who is an
(27:31):
important blue guy for that defense. And the Bears also
had another pretty important injury. They lost their left tackle
Ozzie Trapillo, who's played really well in his rookie season.
Neither of those guys are going to be back.
Speaker 3 (27:44):
They're both out for the rest of the playoffs. Those
are major injuries.
Speaker 2 (27:48):
The Rams offense is just so dangerous and well rounded.
They can beat you through the air. They've got two
dynamic pass catchers, they've got two dynamic running backs, and
the Bears are chronically well Caleb Williams, at least, he
is a chronically slow starter, and I feel like a
slow start could be just fatal in this game. So
(28:10):
I do really like the Rams here as far as
the total, matt Like, my first thought was over because
I'm just betting this for.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
The Bears defense.
Speaker 2 (28:20):
Basically, feeling like the Rams could quite easily put up
thirty plus points. And you know, this Bears offense is
pretty good too. I think they're going to score. But
the forecast right now, they're calling for a game time
temperature of around eight to ten degrees and breathe ten
to twenty miles an hour. That makes me feel a
(28:40):
little less confident in the Rams, even though I think
they're clearly the superior team. And it definitely makes me
feel less confident in anything over fifty. So I mean,
unless the forecasting I'm not betting this right now, I'm
hoping the weather forecast is going to bring the total
down to something like forty eight forty eight and a half, Okay,
(29:02):
then I'll jump on the over.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
Okay, fifty one and a half. I like the under
just because it's a playoff game and I can't bet
over fifty one and a half in a playoff game.
I just I've watched too much football to go. Okay,
maybe if it may be a shootout, but I'd be
very surprised in Chicago if we get a shootout. Turnovers,
and the Bears have been extremely fortunate this year with
turnover luck. If they get turnovers, yes, that's one way
(29:24):
how they could score and keep themselves in the game.
But if this number goes to four, this is nuts.
Home dogs of four points or more in the last
fifty years in the playoffs are nine to zero against
the number. So let's watch and see it's three and
a half. If it gets to four, that's kind of
the kiss of death here for a road playoff team.
Again we talked about at the top, this is a
(29:45):
very wonky year in terms of the numbers and the
betting because the NFL has been very topsy turvy and
the Rams I'm with you are the superior team, but
this is the weather could be the ultimate equalizer. The crowd.
I mean, Chicago is going bonkers for the Bears right now.
That's going to be a really hard environment for the
(30:06):
Rams to walk in. And they did not pass the
weather test last year in this round at Philadelphia, where
the snow showed up and the whole game went to
crap for the Rams. They couldn't do anything in the weather.
So this is another weather conversation for the La Rams.
Can they, as a West Coast team, Dome team, go
to a very difficult weather environment and win. Maybe. I mean,
(30:30):
if Matthew Stafford plays the way he played last week,
sure they should win this football game. If Kayleb Williams
and I'm with You gets off to the same start
he had, If it's twenty one to three at half, again,
I don't see the Rams making the mistakes the Packers made,
and the Rams win the game. But if it's tied
at the break, if it's ten to ten at the break,
(30:52):
I don't know. I mean, I'm with you. I like
the Rams. I think the better play is to lay
the points with the Rams, But I don't want to
go near four. Needs to be three, three and a half.
We get to four, I'm gonna be a little bit
more on the hesitant side to back la.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
Yeah, let me ask you about that.
Speaker 2 (31:07):
And this is obviously unknowable, and more about your instinct,
since you have followed this kind of stuff for a
long time, which way would you anticipate based on what
we saw with the Rams and the smart money last
week against the Panthers? Do you anticipate this getting to four?
Is it more likely the UH to go the other way?
Speaker 1 (31:26):
In your opinion, I think it's more likely to go down.
I personally, I think it's more likely to go I mean,
it opened at four, it was back to three and
a half immediately, so there are some fours in the market.
But my gut tells me he closes at three, just
because that's an I mean, I think the pros are
going to be too greedy. They're going to take the
points and just say, you know, even though the Rams
(31:48):
are the better team on paper, it's a road team,
it's a road favorite. It's a West Coast team, Dome
team in ten degree temperatures in Chicago, slick football, you know,
different type of environment. Take the home team that's used
to practicing in it and used to working with it.
So I mean, early indications are that the Rams are
(32:09):
going to get a lot of love and that the
over is gonna get a lot of love. But I
think once the market, once the limits open up, I
think you're gonna see a lot of under money and
you're gonna see a lot of a lot of Rams
money or sorry Bears money show up in the market
to drive the thing. So I think closes a three.
Speaker 3 (32:23):
Yeah, I tend to agree with you on that.
Speaker 1 (32:25):
I'm also looking. I don't like Ben Johnson, It's gonna
be I don't like Ben Johnson. I didn't. That's why
I bet against him against Matt Lafleur. I like the
creativity that Ben Johnson has. I don't like the bravado
and the ego of Ben Johnson because I think he
coaches with ego, so he's going to target on his back.
I think anytime an NFL coach and the official account
(32:49):
of the team puts out a video of the coat
saying bleep the Packers or bleep whoever in that way,
and I bleeping hate those guys. The NFL, I generally
doesn't like this stuff. Okay, they generally don't like coaches
that act this way. And not to say that a
call is going to go to go against Chicago or whatnot,
but I I've watched a football that like, I'm not
(33:10):
sure that the Bears are going to be looking for
any calls coming up in this game. Like if there's
a crucial decision, a crucial call, I wouldn't want to
be on Chicago needing that given what Ben Johnson's been doing.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
Yeah, it seems like, you know, Ben Johnson, I obviously
he's not making any friends within the Packers organization, and
it seems like he's burned some bridges within the Lions
organization too.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, here's the thing. It's not only are you.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
You know, incentivizing those two teams to really get up
for you in future meetings, Like Dan Campbell and Matt
Leaflora have friends in the league, like if you run
into one of their friends, like they might not hesitate
to stick it to you, like if they get you down.
So it is probably something that in hindsight in a
(33:57):
few years, Ben Johnson might regret.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
I would agree. I think it's a youthful thing. And again,
I like hatred in sports. I'm a Red Sox fan,
I'm a Patriot fan. I hate the Jets, I hate
the Yankees. I like it. I don't like that these
teams have become so buddy buddy. And it started with
David Ortiz becoming friends with all the Yankees, and that
really cool down the rivalry between the Red Sox and
the Yankees. I like blood feuds. I like this from
(34:21):
a sport perspective, a content perspective. I like it. If
I were a Bear fan, I'd be concerned. I'd go,
uh oh, this is kind of out of character for
anybody with Chicago. Like you know, Mike Dicka was a stoic,
very passionate person. Jim McMahon, I get it. But your
quarterback can be like that. I'm not sure you want
your head coach to be like that, because he does
(34:43):
coach play calling from ego. Sometimes and every once in
a while, almost once a game, I'll ask myself what
was he doing? Why did Ben Johnson call that play?
Why did he call that? And it sometimes backfires in
a bad spot for the Bears from a referee standpoint.
For this game, Ed Hockley, sorry Hockey, son of Ed Hockeley.
Sean Hockeley is the head official over the last since
(35:05):
two thousand and eight, the under seventy one fifty four
and three when Shawn Hockley is the head referee, that
is the third best mark of the fifty four refs
that have worked games since two thousand and eight in
the NFL. So they don't throw many flags, so they're
gonna let the guys play, which I think helps the
Rams to be quite honest. In terms of this, I
(35:26):
think the Bears receivers are going to want to see
flags come out to help Caleb Whinning's scrambling around and
running for his life like he likes to do. I
think they would rather have flags come out, so not
a flag happy crew showing up in Chicago coming up
for this, guys, reminder that if you have not gone
and scored six months of betting pros Premium for free,
(35:49):
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pat anyone that you like going in. I know it's
only Tuesday, but anything you like for the weekend.
Speaker 2 (36:11):
I think right now I feel most confident about Seahawks
minus seven and a half, Like that's just there are
too many things working against the forty nine ers, the
rest advantage, the Kittle injury, you know, all the defensive
injuries that have piled up, and what we saw in
week eighteen. I just feel like seven and a half
is a scary number. But I think i'd lay nine.
Speaker 1 (36:35):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (36:36):
Yeah, I think I think it's going to be pretty
one sided in that game. I'll be surprised if it isn't.
Speaker 1 (36:42):
Yeah. I think from a Seahawks perspective, you win that
game easily, not a lot of stress, and then you
host the NFC Championship game and you know, regardless of
which team shows up. It's probably gonna be the Rams.
They're going to show up. And you got a barn
burner of a football game between the Rams and the Seahawks,
and that number is probably three. And we see if
(37:04):
Seattle can get themselves to the super Bowl. It's a
West Coast team with the West Coast Super Bowl. You
know that Seahawk fans are going to invade San Francisco.
I mean, if the Niners somehow shocked the world, they're
going to be on the road, most likely to LA
with a chance to play the Super Bowl in their
home building being all banged up. Like, there's so many
cool storylines that could come out of this here on
(37:25):
the NFC NFC side of the things, from the AFC
side of things, for me, I like the under the
best in the Patriots Texans game. I don't think we're
seeing any offense from either side. I think it's an
under forty one, and I'd be surprised if that number
closes in the forties. My gut tells me we're probably
at thirty nine thirty eight. Probably from a closing perspective,
Pats probably don't score more than seventeen points, and I
(37:45):
don't trust ce De Stroud to do very much against
his Patriots defense if he even with Nico Collins without
them even less so so for me, I think it's
an undergame with Patriots and the Texans. We're going to
be back next week to recap all of this and
to preview the championship rounds. It's getting down there. Only
three after this weekend. We've got three NFL football games
(38:07):
left in the season, which is a bummer. Best of
luck to you guys in your bets. He's Pat fitz Morris.
I'm at Parol. Talk to you next week here on
the Betting Pros YouTube channel. Thanks for listening to the
Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Speaker 4 (38:25):
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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Speaker 1 (38:30):
Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com
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