February 3, 2026 • 35 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite bets to make ahead of Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Should the Patriots be such heavy underdogs? - 0:00:30
Hard Rock Bet - 0:09:13
Under 45.5 points - 0:10:50
Over 45.5 points - 0:13:55
Patriots Moneyline - 0:15:46
Sam Darnold to throw an interception - 0:20:10
8 or more total sacks - 0:23:09
Shortest TD under 1.5 yards - 0:27:20
At least one touchback on a punt - 0:28:35
Score Predictions - 0:32:30
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Super Bowl
edition of the Early Bets Show. He is Pat Fitzmorris.
I am after Roltz. It is time to get into Seattle,
New England. Patriots Seahawks. It will be Super Bowl sixty
coming up on Sunday. Pat, my team's in it. It's
it's different when your team's in it, your bets in
(00:22):
your mind, and everything gets all skewed. Patriots Seahawks on Sunday.
How are you.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I'm doing great, Matt. It was great to see you
in New Orleans this past week and hang out. And yeah,
it's got to be a different kind of Super Bowl
feeling for you as a Patriots fan, though, because you
guys were the Kings of the Mountains for most of
those previous except for maybe that first one against the Rams,
but otherwise, you know, you guys were favored in most,
(00:47):
if not all of those after that Rams super Bowl,
and now you guys are kind of the upstarts and
the underdogs, and it's a different feeling, I would imagine.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Yeah, I mean ninety six to Patriots play the Packers,
your team, and unfortunately that did not go the way
the Patriots wanted. It to with Bill Parcells. You had
the eighty five eighty six team against the Bears, in
which they got crushed, and everybody you know in New
England thinking, Okay, there's no way that this team's ever
going to win a Super Bowl, and then the Rams
game happens, and lo and behold, the Patriots are underdogs
(01:18):
by thirteen points and they've found their way to one
of the most improbable victories. You can go through the
rematches for the Patriots. I mean, they went zero to
two against the Giants, they went one in one. I mean,
we'll see what they do here against the Seahawks. This
is the fourth time the Patriots have seen a similar
opponent in the Super Bowl. I mean they've been in
one and every five of these sixty of them. The
(01:39):
Patriots been in twelve of these Super Bowls. But it
is a different spot because the team was so unexpectedly
to be here. Even the two thousand and one team,
you had a quarterback in Drew Bledsoe who was the
first one hundred million dollar player in the NFL, so
you had some elite level talent. Tom Brady was the
one that won that game, not Drew Bledsoe, but you
(02:01):
had talent on that football team that was a little
bit on the like if they put things together, this
team after back to back four win seasons in a
twenty three year old quarterback who played all year at
an MVP level. This team getting here with a first
year head coach in Mike Vrabel or at least you know,
first time with the Patriots, first year with the Patriots,
that is I think the difference. That's the area that
(02:23):
think Patriot fans, we really didn't see this, and you
could make a case this is the most improbable of
all the runs. Even with the Patriots going and winning
three road games in eighty five eighty six, becoming the
first team ever to do that, to win three road
games on the way to a Super Bowl. That team
was filled up with Irving Friars and John Hannah and
players that you you know even now in twenty twenty six,
(02:45):
these are still names of football fans remember Craig James
and most of Tatupu. So it is a unique place.
I would say definitely, this Patriot team getting to the
top of the mountain in the AFC really unexpected.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Why this team feels legitimate now and more legitimate, I
know they've were sort of dismissed and written off as
the team that faced the easiest schedule in the NFL
and I think the seventh easiest schedule since nineteen seventy eight.
Their defense has completely transformed into something that it wasn't
(03:20):
for most of the season. They are twenty third in
defensive DVA. This defense that we have seen in the
playoffs has given up. They've given up twenty six points
in three playoff games. They're giving up two one hundred
and ten totally yards a game in these three games.
And I know the Chargers decimated offensive line, the Texans
(03:43):
bad offensive line, Broncos backup quarterback.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Still, this defense.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Has been lights out and it felt like that late
in the season has kind of felt like that whenever
they've had Milton Williams and Robert Splaine healthy, Like you
can't run on this team. It's become increasingly hard to
pass on them because of the pressure they have been
getting on quarterbacks lately. I don't know if they'll be
able to keep this up against the team with a
(04:08):
better offense than the ones they've been facing. But Seattle's
offensive line isn't great either. I think they are a
live dog in this game, no question.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
We'll make picks here in just one second. But I
will say this, and this goes. If the Seahawks win
this game by ten points or more, people are going
to break their arms patting themselves on the back for
the what that they've called it. I've been around long enough.
I'm forty eight years old. I've been doing gambling full
time now for almost ten years. And watching the way
(04:41):
the gambling public is talking about this game versus watching
the way the general public is talking about this game.
I've seen this story before where there is a lot
of group think going into that Seattle is so much
better than the Patriots, that this number is too low.
This number should be seven, this number should be eight,
(05:03):
this number just Patriots offense can't do anything against this
Seahawks pass rush. That the Patriots defense has played, like
you mentioned, a bunch of cupcakes going into the super Bowl,
and that their schedule is being so easy that the
Patriots are gonna get exposed here and the Seahawks are
going to do one for America and rip the mask
off of the Scooby Doo villain and we're gonna see
(05:24):
what actually is going on here. For the Patriots. This
path for Seattle is easier, was easier than the Patriots path.
If you want to talk about how these teams got here,
Seattle played a joke of a team in the forty
nine ers, who, if they have their full complement of
all star roster talent, could have won that game at Seattle.
(05:47):
And then they played their arch rival in the Rams,
against the team with a defense that Sam Darnold has
seen a ton of, and frankly, the Rams defense stunk
this year and so yes, he was able to move
the football. The Patriots defense, all the stats you just listed,
this is the best defense the Seahawks will play here
in the postseason. And that is including the forty nine ers,
(06:08):
because look at all I mean, we laughed about it.
The forty nine ers with Robert Sala, they were pulling
guys off the street to go and play here. Milton
Williams and Christen Barmore are going to make life really
difficult for an offensive line that does not block defensive
tackles well at all. While the Patriots have a tough
time blocking the edges, the Seahawks have a hard time
(06:31):
blocking up the middle. The A and the B gap
is where they really struggle, and that is the literal
strength of this Patriot defense, where they gave one hundred
million dollars to Milton Williams. So this is going to
be a gigantic test, I think for this Seahawks team
and everybody who's saying that this is going to be
a blowout, I would be very careful with your bank rolls.
I wouldn't be betting it like that because if you are,
(06:53):
I have a sneaking suspicion you're going to be pacing
the house in the fourth quarter on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Can the Patriots move the ball against the Seattle defense?
I wonder if there are any coaches in this game
who have won six championships. Oh wait, the guy who
calls plays for the New England Patriots might have six
Super Bowl rings. So I do think there's a chance
they can solve this defense. I don't expect the Patriots
to put up forty points on Seattle, but I think
(07:20):
they can score enough to potentially win this game.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Do you get the sense that among the sharps in
Vegas that's maybe there's going to be some Patriots money
coming in late in the week.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
I mean, this is the narrative. We tape this on
Tuesday morning. The narrative is, all the money is coming
in on Seattle. Everyone's hammering Seal. Why would you bet
the Patriots? Now? There is no benefit to betting New
England right now, this number is teetering between four and
a half and five. Just wait, let this thing go.
(07:53):
See if you can get a five or even a
five and a half at some point, to see what
the ceiling is going to be, and then we're going
to see the Patriot money show up. It will be
there Thursday, Friday, Saturday. You're going to see a lot
of Patriot money. I made the prediction that the line
will do the same thing that it did for the
Broncos and the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. That
(08:14):
number got as high as five and a half, it
closed at three and a half. I think it's gonna
close around three and a half or four. So if
you do like Seattle, I would take it now because
I think we're seeing five be the top of the market.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Interesting. I wonder if it will come down that.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
It seems like it's been a pretty stable four and
a half peaking five in some spots.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Remember opened at three and a half though, Yeah, so
I think it goes back closer to the opener. I
think that number gets driven down and comes down to
four three and a half here before we get to
kick off, because I do think your big bets, you're
sharp if you will, your sharp accounts are going to
come in on New England because they're going to take
the points. It's too close of a matchup. This number
(08:56):
should be two and a half. That's the real number here.
It's Seattle minus two and a half, not four and
a half and not five. That number is wrong in
my opinion, and I think it's just praying on the
public and setting the public up for a three point
win for Seattle, and the books will clean just take
it right off the board.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
I'm with you on that, So we'll see guy.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
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Speaker 4 (10:21):
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Speaker 1 (10:50):
All right, let's get into picks here. Where are we going?
Pat what is the play for Super Bowl sixty on
the side, I don't.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Think I have looked at the hundreds and hundreds of
bets available in.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
Props, sides totals.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
I don't think there's any better value, and I know
we might disagree on this. Then the under than under
forty five and a half points. And this kind of
goes to what we were talking about about the Patriots
being the best defense the Seattle Seahawks have faced in
the playoffs. I completely agree the Rams defense was lights
out early in the season, but it was waning down
(11:28):
the stretch and we saw them give up yards and
points to the Carolina Panthers, to the Chicago Bears. I
definitely think this is going to be a tough challenge
for Seattle's offense. And Sam Darnold has been playing great
in the first two games. But yes, the San Francisco
defense is very compromised by injuries, and then did it
against the Rams at home in a pretty friendly environment.
(11:50):
So look, the Patriots defense has gotten fifty seven pressures
in its first three playoff games. That's the most by
any team in its first three playoff game since two
thousand and nine. Kalevon Jason has turned into Bruce Smith
in this playoffs eighteen pressures he has in three games.
(12:10):
And not only are the Patriots putting heat on quarterbacks,
and not only do they have guys who can cover
in the back end Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones. They're only
giving up three point one yards per carry in the playoffs,
so they are stopping run and pass. And on the
other side, you know, you've got the Seahawks who are
top five in pressure rate despite blitzing at the eighth
(12:32):
lowest rate in the league. The Patriots have allowed the
tenth highest pressure rate in the league. That was during
the regular season against the pretty easy schedule, and they've
been giving up even more pressure in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
To these good defenses.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
The Seattle secondary is loaded with the Von Witherspoon, Julian Love,
Nicki Minwari, Kobe Bryant. I think we're going to see
two teams really struggle to move the ball, Matt, And
of course there are things that can short circuit under bets,
defensive touchdowns, short fields, turnovers that create those short fields. Yeah,
(13:07):
there's absolutely a chance it could go over this, but
no one likes betting the under, So I think the
over has said about two and a half points higher
than it really should be, if not more, maybe closer
to three. I think it should be like forty two
and a half, and we're getting it at forty five
and a half. I think there's gonna be a real
(13:27):
struggle to get to forty points in this game. And
I just I think there's amazing value in the under.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
If I'm gonna play it, I think a teasing up
to fifty one and a half and taking the under
is where I would go because I think it's a
twenty seven to twenty four final for the Patriots, and
I know that kind of gives away my play, but
I am on two futures. I have a Seal ticket
at fourteen to one and a Patriot future at eleven
to one. So who wins the game doesn't really matter
(13:55):
to me. I'll make a pick on it. But who
wins the game doesn't really matter to me. But I
am betting the over like you meant at forty five
and a half. The reason is because I do think
the special team's portion of this game is going to
be significant. The Patriots have one of the best kick
returners in punt returners in the game, and Marcus Jones
I think he is going to make a big play
in this game. The Patriots have been known to turn
(14:18):
the football over, but so have Sam Darnold in the Seahawks.
I do think this game is going to have turnovers
on both sides. I do think there's a good shot
that Drake may gets hit any fumbles. I do think
there's a good shot that we get some type of
special teams play in this game that leads to points.
So to me, I think it's a game in the
twenties I don't think it's a repeat of the Rams
(14:38):
Patriots thirteen to three Super Bowl. I think we're going
to see and it is contrrion. I know a lot
of people that are on your side, a lot of
people that I trust in, people whose opinions I respect,
yours included, that are on the under, and I can
one hundred percent see it because both quarterbacks may have
a bear of a time against these defenses. I just
think the Patriots are going to find a way to
(14:59):
score and then that's going to open up Sam Donald.
It will lead to points, but it also will lead
to mistakes by Sam Darnald, and I do expect him
to make some pretty big ones in this game. I
think the Patriots. Sam Donald's zero to four in his
career against the Patriots, and he scored a grand total
of twenty three points against New England. You can tell
me all you want about the Jets and everything else
(15:20):
going on, but this guy has not played well against
the Patriots. So to me, I think we're gonna see
a little more offense than people think in this game.
But I understand the under for sure, because on paper,
I think that's the correct read. I'm just gonna go
contrarian because it's the Super Bowl, and I feel like
everyone is on the under. It was forty six two
days ago, we're down to forty five and a half.
(15:41):
So when the limits start to be opened up, you're
seeing people come in and at the under.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Yeah, I'll buy that. And then for the side, yep.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
I like the Patriots on the money line, and right
now it's plus one p ninety eight in most spots,
that's the number I'm seeing. I think you can find
it at plus one ninety five in some spots, and
maybe if you're right about this spread getting as high
as five or five and a half, you might be
able to get it a plus two hundred or even
a little higher.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
I like getting that.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
I mean, I do think it's justified that the Seahawks
are favorites, and I do think they probably have a
better than fifty to fifty chance to win, although maybe
not that much better than fifty percent. At plus one
ninety you're basically saying the Patriots have a thirty five
percent chance to win, and I think their odds are
better than that, So I think there's value there. And
(16:34):
rather than take the points and bet that it's a
close game. I would rather just take the chance to,
you know, make three to one on my bet.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
I like it. I mean, I do think there's other
ways of approaching it. If you don't want to take
the plus on that you want some insurance, and you
could take Patriot moneyline at plus one ninety and then
t is the Patriots from plus five up to plus eleven,
take the total from forty six up to fifty two
and take under, or fifty one and a half and
take under. So I do think there's a same game
parlay opportunity here. I do not believe this is a blowout. Okay,
(17:08):
I don't think the Patriots blow out the Seahawks. I
don't think the Seahawks blow out the Patriots. So I
think this game is ripe for a teaser like that.
If you want to, and people like betting the under,
if you want to pull it down from forty five
and a half down to thirty nine and a half
and take the over, you can do that. But you
are running the risk that these defenses do what everyone
thinks they're going to do. And this game is like
(17:29):
the Patriots in the Rams and it's thirteen to three.
But I think the Patriots have some advantages here that
people aren't putting enough respect on. And I think it
comes down to the running game for New England. I
think Traveon Henderson is going to have a big game
in the Super Bowl. I think Ramandra Stevenson is going
to have a big game in the Super Bowl. And
(17:49):
there's a lot of confidence. I think when you're in
this game, you see it from just the mistakes that
get made. Pete Carroll, for instance. Obviously coaches just doing
differently because it's the Super Bowl. They don't think the
same way. I know Mike McDonald has dominated quarterbacks under
the age of twenty five. I don't care Josh McDaniels
has been, like you mentioned, in a couple of these games.
(18:12):
The Patriots head coach has won three of them himself. Like,
this is an organization that is used to being in
this game. They know the prep, they know the game,
they know how to get ready for a Super Bowl
more than any other franchise. And I think that plays
out here against Seattle with a quarterback in Sam Darnold
who's trying to prove himself and trying to justify his existence,
(18:34):
and an offensive coordinator who now is looking at the
Raiders saying that's my team. Don't tell me Clint Kubiak
is not just a little bit distracted. Okay, he's just
a little bit distracted. He's going to be a head
coach for the first time, and he's coming here to Vegas.
Like the Monday morning press conference after the Super Bowl
is going to be Clint Kubiak coming here to Vegas
to be introduced. So there's a lot of things go
(18:56):
running around this Seattle franchise that if I'm a Seahawk fan,
I'm a little bit certain.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Let me throw
a few other pluses at you. From the Patriots point
of view. Super Bowl experience. Mentioned that Patriots offensive coordinator
Josh McDaniels has been a part of six New England championships.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has three championship rings from
his playing days with the Pats. Milton Williams, who you
(19:22):
talked about earlier, won a championship with the Eagles last year.
Carlton Davis has won one with the Buccaneers. Mac Collins
is one one with the Eagles. Like, there's some Super
Bowl experience on that side of the ball, even though
the Patriots are viewed as this young, upstar team and
then you were talking about Darnold a second ago, Matt, like,
(19:43):
I think Drake May is the better quarterback in this game.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Experience be damned.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
I mean, so, if you're going to give me either
more than a field goal as far as points or
give me a plus one ninety plus two hundred on
the money line, yeah, I always feel good about taking
the team that has the better quarterback when I'm getting
those types of odds.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Well, let's talk about prop bets because Donald is one
of my prop bets that I like, and I will
make more prop bets throughout the week on the Daily
Juice podcast. You guys can find it here on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel. So if you want more than
just these props, I'm gonna give you guys. I'll have
one every single day leading up to the game on Sunday.
But I like Sam Darlan to throw a pick. I
think it comes down to the pressure the Patriots are
(20:24):
gonna face are gonna put on him, and he's gonna
face up the middle. I think Donald will make a
mistake in this game because we've seen it in the past.
He did it against the Rams. He gets pressured, guys
are in his face, and he'll throw the ball up
for grabs at times, trying to make a play. Kind
not on the same level as to what happens in
the AFC Championship game, but similarly, I do think he
(20:45):
will make a mistake. I like him to throw a pick.
It's not expensive. It should be somewhere around mys one
thirty one thirty five on Darlom to throw a pick.
How to feel about Darnald get intercepted by the Patriots defense.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
I feel pretty good about that. It was last night.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
It was minus one thirty one, Okay, And are you
surprised at all that Drake May had Drake May's minus
won forty one to throw an interception? Does that surprise
you that the odds of Drake May throwing one are
shorter than the odds of Donald throwing one.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
No, it's public perception. I think the public perception is
that Drake May is going to turn the football over
as much as he had all postseason, which I disagree
with because, as I said, I think the Patriots are
going to run the football, and I think they're going
to be effective running the football With a young quarterback,
they're going to protect him and Josh I don't think
it's going to be looking to throw the ball deep
all that often, but I'm not surprised, no. I think
(21:35):
the general thought is that Drake May is going to
be outplayed by Sam Donald, and that's why Donald's number
is shorter. From a pick perspective, yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Get that, and maybe also that the Seahawks were pretty
run heavy during the regular season, maybe a little more
so than the Patriots. And I think ideally, in a
perfect world for Clint Kubiak, Sam Donald does have to
throw twenty five or few or passes in this game.
I just don't know if the Patriots defense is going
to allow that with the way they've stopped the run.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Look, it's the Super bowlright, so it'd be the first
time all year they get gashed in the run game.
And Kenneth Walker the third is tremendous. I just think
the Zach Scharbonay injury is much bigger than people think.
And I've been talking about the whole postseason that at
some point they were going to hit a defense. It's
gonna make them pay for not having more than one
option on the running back side and in the red
zone where Zach Sharbonay was a complete vulture for touchdowns.
(22:24):
If the Patriots can hold this offense to field goals
and then they go and score touchdowns, that's how they
win the Super Bowls by leaning on their defense. So
I'd be careful with the Kenneth Walker props. I'm seeing
people say that Walker is gonna have a big game.
I'd be very careful. Yes, it's the Super Bowl and
weird wonky things happen, but all year long, the Patriots
defense has not been impacted by running backs all that much.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
I agree.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
And if Walker doesn't have a run of more than
twenty yards, I don't not think whatever his rushing total
is right now, and I can't remember.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Think it's like sixty five to seventy somewhere that runs.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Yeah, he's not going over if he doesn't have a
run of longer than twenty yards. So I think I'd
rather bet on the long run than I would on
the just total over for rushing yardage.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
What's a prop you like that?
Speaker 2 (23:09):
So we've talked about the pass rushes and how the
Patriots have had trouble blocking things up in the playoffs
and how much heat the Patriots have been putting on
in the playoffs. So I like a sack bet in
this game. And I've seen five and a half and
six and a half in different spots. As the total,
(23:31):
I'm taking it up to eight sacks or more. Matt
at plus three point thirty, I think we're going to
see eight or more total sacks in the game. I
want the bigger number, and I want to boost those
odds and give myself a tidy little payout when that hits.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Have you done the math yet if you looked and
see have there has there been a game involving the
Patriots and the Sales where we've seen a sack total
that high?
Speaker 2 (23:53):
I haven't checked that, but I mean, how many times
has Drake may been sacked in the playoffs? Hasn't he
been sacked at least four four times every game?
Speaker 1 (24:00):
I want to say, Yeah, that's why I think they're
gonna run the ball, because I don't think they're gonna
let him sit back there and let Seattle's defensive line
get after him the same way that they did with
the you know, I mean, I guess the Broncos go
after him a little bit. The weather obviously really hampered
the ability to throw the ball for New England. But yeah,
against the Texans he got lit up. I mean the Texans.
(24:21):
Will Anderson was in the backfield the entire game hitting
Drake May. So I love the odds though, I mean
there's a real big potential because I would say individually, like,
if you can find a book that's offering a Milton
Williams sack, prop I would take that. I think if
you find a Christian Barmore sack, prop, I would take that.
(24:41):
I think you're onto something. In terms of the sacks
for both teams, I think both offensive and defensive lines
are gonna be talked about quite a bit in this game.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah. And for the record, May has been sacked five
times in each of his three playoff games.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
Fuck off five times. Interesting case. Remember if he run
it gets tackled behind the line of scrimmage, that is
still a sack. So that's how he does So that's
that's that works.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
And that is what May has been doing a lot
of this season. He's been taking a lot of sacks,
but for not a lot of yardage because he tries
to escape the pocket and move forward and a lot
of times he gets tripped up like a yard or
two behind the line of scrimmage. So I do think
we're going to see a lot of sacks there. And
maybe the only point at which we differ in how
(25:26):
we see this game going, maybe you might think the
Patriots have a little more success in the running game
than I do.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
That Seattle run defense.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
I mean, they are number one in DVOA against the
run and just a phenomenal rundee.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
I think both teams are going to struggle.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
To run the ball, quite honestly, and I think they're
gonna have no choice but to try to throw.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
So if they're gonna run zone coverage in the back,
Travon Henderson's gonna kill him. So I can't wait to
see what the defensive game plan is going to be
for Mike McDonald because he's he has really disguised defense
as well, and that's why young quarterbacks struggle mightily, because
he'll flash one thing and then it'll be in something else.
But generally speaking, when the Patriots have seen zone coverage
(26:09):
in the back, their offensive line is really good up
the middle, and so they've run the ball with Trevion
Henderson and they've popped big runs this season with Treveon Henderson.
So I'll be very curious to see what the defensive
game plan is going to be for Seattle, and if
they run their typical base, the Patriots should be able
to run the football against this team, just given their
run scheme up against the run scheme the run stopping
(26:30):
steam for Seattle. But I get your point. I mean,
on paper, Seattle has done a very good job of
taking away the run. It also, I think that number
is skewed by how often Seattle had the lead. Teams
weren't able to run all that much on Seattle. They
had to throw to get back into the game, so
that limited the number of times. The Patriots playing with
(26:51):
a lead in this game is going to be very important.
That they need to be the one dictating tempo. They
need to be the one that puts pressure on Sam Darnold.
And when this game gets late and late and late,
I think all of those headlines about Sam Darnald start
to come into play. In the quote Icee ghosts that
could be coming back again here for Sam Darnald and
(27:12):
this career that has been remarkably rejuvenated both last year
in Minnesota and now this year. Here in Seattle for
my second prop bet. It's when I make every single year,
and it's kind of it's the first bet I make
every year. It's that the shortest touchdown will be under
one and a half yards. It comes down to goal line,
it comes down to tush pushes, it comes down to
(27:35):
if there's a foul in the end zone the ball
comes to the one yard line. Under one and a
half yards for a touchdown has been just a staple
bet I make every single year. It's hit I think
eight of the last ten years. So I'm going to
come in here under one and a half for the
shortest touchdown in the game. Pap.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Yeah, you have told me that it's an auto bet
for you in the Super Bowl every year and explained
the rationale to me.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
And I I like it. I think it makes a
lot of sense.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
The only thing is I just I don't think there's
gonna be a lot of touchdowns in this game, so
to me, I feel like the true odds of it
happening are probably a little shorter than you might, but
I still.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
Think it's a pretty sound bet.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Yeah. I like the over, so you like the Undersie,
I'm betting narrative essentially. And yes, if it's thirteen to
three and we get one touchdown, yeah, that's a problem
this bet would have will be problematic for sure.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
And I think we're trying to make correlated props here,
and that's kind of the case with my second bet too.
And they say, Matt, that imitation is the sincerest form
of flattery, and I'm trying to imitate something you did
in last year's Super Bowl and one with and I
believe your bet was that there would be a punt
down inside either the five or the ten yard line.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
You're stealing my bets, Pat, This is great.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Yes, well, yeah, I remember texting you the bag of
money emoji at.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
When that one hit.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Yep, So I couldn't find that one. But I still
like bets because I do think there are gonna be
a lot of punts in this game. So if I
can get a prop with something happening on a punt
at good odds, I like that because I think there're
gonna be a lot of punts. And I couldn't get
one for being down inside the five or ten yard line,
but I could get a bet for at least one
(29:21):
touchback on a punt in this game at plus one
twenty five, and I like that just because I do think.
I also like the over on total punts, which I
think is like seven and a half for this, but
I think you get a little bit better priced rather
than bet minus ten on over seven and a half punts,
I'll take plus money on a touchback.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
The other angle two and this is the old Pat
McAfee k ball kicking conversation about the ball is a
commemorative ball, and the ball and they tend to bring
the gate, the ball tends to be brought out and returned.
The new kickoff rules has sort of altered that bet,
but I do think you can look around on kickoffs
(30:03):
as to how many yards the kickoff gets returned, or
does it be a touchback or not. I mean those
are if you're looking for fun ways. What my advice is,
as we'll wrap here as when my advice will be
to people when it comes to how to bet the
Super Bowl, give yourself a bunch of options, like don't
just go crazy on the coin toss, don't go crazy
on things at the top at the beginning, because if
(30:24):
you lose, you're gonna be sour for the entire four quarters.
So try to give yourself bets that you can hit
throughout the entire game that every time that something happens,
like your punt bet is perfect. Every time they punt,
you're now watching. You're like, Oh, here we go. You're
engaged and you're watching what's gonna happen? So same thing
with runs you know of you know you mentioned longest
(30:45):
run for Kenneth Walker. I like that every time Kennth
Walker gets to the football, you're like, oh, can he
bust it? And so you're watching and see if your
BET's gonna cash. So that's my advice in terms of
how to bet this thing. Give yourself enough bets where
you're locked in through all four quarters vers us like
the national anthem, the color of the gator raid, like
things that are just sort of like one and done
(31:06):
that either it happens or it doesn't. Do you have
any advice?
Speaker 2 (31:10):
Great point, like for maximum enjoyments in addition to the
chance to make money. I mean, we want to have
fun throughout this and I agree if you make kind
of wise bets that you have a chance to hit
at any point in the game, that's a good way
to do it.
Speaker 1 (31:23):
Yeah, I don't know what I'm gonna do in the
Super Bowl because a couple of years ago, I couldn't
get a bet right. I got everything wrong all playoff long,
and then I swept the board and went eight to
zero and all my bets in the Super Bowl. I've
had a very good year in the NFL, so I
don't know if that means I'm gonna have an awful
Super Bowl. It could happen where everything just falls apart
from me, but I'm hoping it doesn't. I don't care
(31:45):
if I lose every bet. If the Patriots win, I
don't care. How like, get the Patriots the seventh championship.
I think the best play on the board, you like
the under. My best play on the board is Patriots
plus five. I think that it is a too heavy
of a number. I think you go ahead and take
the Patriots plus five, sprinkle on the money line. You
(32:05):
can do the teaser like I mentioned, with the same
game teaser and taking the total down I are up,
and then bedding the under. I think those are the
best ways of approaching this. I can't wait to watch
this game, PAP, because I think this is really gonna
be a wild game. Do you have a score prediction.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Yeah, it's weird because I'm picking the Patriots on the
money line, But ultimately, like, I think it is less
than a fifty to fifty chance to finish. So I'll
say twenty to twenty to seventeen Seattle.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
Don't hate it. Twenty seventeen your better the Pitt's money line,
and your prediction is twenty seventeen Seattle.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
I do think.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
Look, I think I think the Patriots chances of winning
are better than thirty five percent, okay, But playing the
other I think it's Seattle's chances of winning are better
than fifty percent.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
That's why I think the money line is just a
good like it's a sensible percentage play.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
If you're right, I cash a fourteen to one ticket
and I'm good. So it's it's it's I make more
money if Seattle wins, I make more money. But my
prediction is twenty seven to twenty four Patriots. On a
last second kick, I think New England wins it. At
the buzzer, I think this is almost a repeat of
the Rams game. I think it's going to be a
fantastic performance by the Patriot defense. I just think that
(33:15):
Seattle is going to score. I think there could be
special teams. There could be turnovers because of fumbles or
interceptions that lead to quick points for Seattle. There could
be a punt return for a touchdown, a kick return
for the touchdown special teams touchdown, I think is a
good bet. I think that there's a decent shot that
happens in this game, given both skill players, the speed
of Seattle and the speed of New England. I think
(33:36):
both will come into play here. And I think we're
going to see points or at least set up points
by the special teams, which will lead to the game
going over twenty seven to twenty four in New England.
Let's see what happens. Pat, this has been an unbelievable season, man,
thank you for all the time. This was awesome. I
can't wait to do this again coming up next year.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
Likewise, Matt, and by the way, for the record, if
you believe it's going to be a last second field
goal eight to one on a scoring play on the
last play of the game.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
It absolutely love it. Eight to one. Love it. That's
a sprinkle bet. You should make that bet just for
the hell of it. A sprinkle play for that could
go to overtime. Bet the yes to the overtime too.
The books will cry if bet the overtime. I do
think this is going to be a four quarter battle.
I do think this is going to be fun, and
I do think that favors the Patriots to have that
game come down to one last play because they've been
very clutch. Seattle has two, but I think the Patriots
(34:21):
have had kind of a rabbit's foot this year that
will come into play and then everyone come Monday morning.
All I can say is just don't have the referees
be involved.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (34:30):
Just don't have the referees be involved. He is bad
fits Morris. I am at Paroltz. Make sure you subscribe
to the Betting Pros YouTube channel because we've got a
ton of great content coming all week for the big Game.
I will be there for a couple of days, going
to San Francisco, so it's gonna be a lot of fun.
Daily Juice will be taping from Media Row the Media
Center coming up in San Francisco a couple of days
(34:51):
coming up for this week. Enjoy the game, guys, be safe,
don't do anything stupid. We want to see you all
back here next year for another early bet show for
the NFL.
Speaker 5 (35:00):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Super Bowl
edition of the Early Bets Show. He is Pat Fitzmorris.
I am after Roltz. It is time to get into Seattle,
New England. Patriots Seahawks. It will be Super Bowl sixty
coming up on Sunday. Pat, my team's in it. It's
it's different when your team's in it, your bets in
(00:22):
your mind, and everything gets all skewed. Patriots Seahawks on Sunday.
How are you.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
I'm doing great, Matt. It was great to see you
in New Orleans this past week and hang out. And yeah,
it's got to be a different kind of Super Bowl
feeling for you as a Patriots fan, though, because you
guys were the Kings of the Mountains for most of
those previous except for maybe that first one against the Rams,
but otherwise, you know, you guys were favored in most,
(00:47):
if not all of those after that Rams super Bowl,
and now you guys are kind of the upstarts and
the underdogs, and it's a different feeling, I would imagine.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Yeah, I mean ninety six to Patriots play the Packers,
your team, and unfortunately that did not go the way
the Patriots wanted. It to with Bill Parcells. You had
the eighty five eighty six team against the Bears, in
which they got crushed, and everybody you know in New
England thinking, Okay, there's no way that this team's ever
going to win a Super Bowl, and then the Rams
game happens, and lo and behold, the Patriots are underdogs
(01:18):
by thirteen points and they've found their way to one
of the most improbable victories. You can go through the
rematches for the Patriots. I mean, they went zero to
two against the Giants, they went one in one. I mean,
we'll see what they do here against the Seahawks. This
is the fourth time the Patriots have seen a similar
opponent in the Super Bowl. I mean they've been in
one and every five of these sixty of them. The
(01:39):
Patriots been in twelve of these Super Bowls. But it
is a different spot because the team was so unexpectedly
to be here. Even the two thousand and one team,
you had a quarterback in Drew Bledsoe who was the
first one hundred million dollar player in the NFL, so
you had some elite level talent. Tom Brady was the
one that won that game, not Drew Bledsoe, but you
(02:01):
had talent on that football team that was a little
bit on the like if they put things together, this
team after back to back four win seasons in a
twenty three year old quarterback who played all year at
an MVP level. This team getting here with a first
year head coach in Mike Vrabel or at least you know,
first time with the Patriots, first year with the Patriots,
that is I think the difference. That's the area that
(02:23):
think Patriot fans, we really didn't see this, and you
could make a case this is the most improbable of
all the runs. Even with the Patriots going and winning
three road games in eighty five eighty six, becoming the
first team ever to do that, to win three road
games on the way to a Super Bowl. That team
was filled up with Irving Friars and John Hannah and
players that you you know even now in twenty twenty six,
(02:45):
these are still names of football fans remember Craig James
and most of Tatupu. So it is a unique place.
I would say definitely, this Patriot team getting to the
top of the mountain in the AFC really unexpected.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
Why this team feels legitimate now and more legitimate, I
know they've were sort of dismissed and written off as
the team that faced the easiest schedule in the NFL
and I think the seventh easiest schedule since nineteen seventy eight.
Their defense has completely transformed into something that it wasn't
(03:20):
for most of the season. They are twenty third in
defensive DVA. This defense that we have seen in the
playoffs has given up. They've given up twenty six points
in three playoff games. They're giving up two one hundred
and ten totally yards a game in these three games.
And I know the Chargers decimated offensive line, the Texans
(03:43):
bad offensive line, Broncos backup quarterback.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
Still, this defense.
Speaker 2 (03:48):
Has been lights out and it felt like that late
in the season has kind of felt like that whenever
they've had Milton Williams and Robert Splaine healthy, Like you
can't run on this team. It's become increasingly hard to
pass on them because of the pressure they have been
getting on quarterbacks lately. I don't know if they'll be
able to keep this up against the team with a
(04:08):
better offense than the ones they've been facing. But Seattle's
offensive line isn't great either. I think they are a
live dog in this game, no question.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
We'll make picks here in just one second. But I
will say this, and this goes. If the Seahawks win
this game by ten points or more, people are going
to break their arms patting themselves on the back for
the what that they've called it. I've been around long enough.
I'm forty eight years old. I've been doing gambling full
time now for almost ten years. And watching the way
(04:41):
the gambling public is talking about this game versus watching
the way the general public is talking about this game.
I've seen this story before where there is a lot
of group think going into that Seattle is so much
better than the Patriots, that this number is too low.
This number should be seven, this number should be eight,
(05:03):
this number just Patriots offense can't do anything against this
Seahawks pass rush. That the Patriots defense has played, like
you mentioned, a bunch of cupcakes going into the super Bowl,
and that their schedule is being so easy that the
Patriots are gonna get exposed here and the Seahawks are
going to do one for America and rip the mask
off of the Scooby Doo villain and we're gonna see
(05:24):
what actually is going on here. For the Patriots. This
path for Seattle is easier, was easier than the Patriots path.
If you want to talk about how these teams got here,
Seattle played a joke of a team in the forty
nine ers, who, if they have their full complement of
all star roster talent, could have won that game at Seattle.
(05:47):
And then they played their arch rival in the Rams,
against the team with a defense that Sam Darnold has
seen a ton of, and frankly, the Rams defense stunk
this year and so yes, he was able to move
the football. The Patriots defense, all the stats you just listed,
this is the best defense the Seahawks will play here
in the postseason. And that is including the forty nine ers,
(06:08):
because look at all I mean, we laughed about it.
The forty nine ers with Robert Sala, they were pulling
guys off the street to go and play here. Milton
Williams and Christen Barmore are going to make life really
difficult for an offensive line that does not block defensive
tackles well at all. While the Patriots have a tough
time blocking the edges, the Seahawks have a hard time
(06:31):
blocking up the middle. The A and the B gap
is where they really struggle, and that is the literal
strength of this Patriot defense, where they gave one hundred
million dollars to Milton Williams. So this is going to
be a gigantic test, I think for this Seahawks team
and everybody who's saying that this is going to be
a blowout, I would be very careful with your bank rolls.
I wouldn't be betting it like that because if you are,
(06:53):
I have a sneaking suspicion you're going to be pacing
the house in the fourth quarter on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Can the Patriots move the ball against the Seattle defense?
I wonder if there are any coaches in this game
who have won six championships. Oh wait, the guy who
calls plays for the New England Patriots might have six
Super Bowl rings. So I do think there's a chance
they can solve this defense. I don't expect the Patriots
to put up forty points on Seattle, but I think
(07:20):
they can score enough to potentially win this game.
Speaker 3 (07:22):
I agree with you.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
Do you get the sense that among the sharps in
Vegas that's maybe there's going to be some Patriots money
coming in late in the week.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
I mean, this is the narrative. We tape this on
Tuesday morning. The narrative is, all the money is coming
in on Seattle. Everyone's hammering Seal. Why would you bet
the Patriots? Now? There is no benefit to betting New
England right now, this number is teetering between four and
a half and five. Just wait, let this thing go.
(07:53):
See if you can get a five or even a
five and a half at some point, to see what
the ceiling is going to be, and then we're going
to see the Patriot money show up. It will be
there Thursday, Friday, Saturday. You're going to see a lot
of Patriot money. I made the prediction that the line
will do the same thing that it did for the
Broncos and the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. That
(08:14):
number got as high as five and a half, it
closed at three and a half. I think it's gonna
close around three and a half or four. So if
you do like Seattle, I would take it now because
I think we're seeing five be the top of the market.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Interesting. I wonder if it will come down that.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
It seems like it's been a pretty stable four and
a half peaking five in some spots.
Speaker 1 (08:35):
Remember opened at three and a half though, Yeah, so
I think it goes back closer to the opener. I
think that number gets driven down and comes down to
four three and a half here before we get to
kick off, because I do think your big bets, you're
sharp if you will, your sharp accounts are going to
come in on New England because they're going to take
the points. It's too close of a matchup. This number
(08:56):
should be two and a half. That's the real number here.
It's Seattle minus two and a half, not four and
a half and not five. That number is wrong in
my opinion, and I think it's just praying on the
public and setting the public up for a three point
win for Seattle, and the books will clean just take
it right off the board.
Speaker 3 (09:12):
I'm with you on that, So we'll see guy.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
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Speaker 4 (10:21):
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Seminal Hard Rock Digital LLC in other states must be
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(10:44):
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Speaker 1 (10:50):
All right, let's get into picks here. Where are we going?
Pat what is the play for Super Bowl sixty on
the side, I don't.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
Think I have looked at the hundreds and hundreds of
bets available in.
Speaker 3 (11:05):
Props, sides totals.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
I don't think there's any better value, and I know
we might disagree on this. Then the under than under
forty five and a half points. And this kind of
goes to what we were talking about about the Patriots
being the best defense the Seattle Seahawks have faced in
the playoffs. I completely agree the Rams defense was lights
out early in the season, but it was waning down
(11:28):
the stretch and we saw them give up yards and
points to the Carolina Panthers, to the Chicago Bears. I
definitely think this is going to be a tough challenge
for Seattle's offense. And Sam Darnold has been playing great
in the first two games. But yes, the San Francisco
defense is very compromised by injuries, and then did it
against the Rams at home in a pretty friendly environment.
(11:50):
So look, the Patriots defense has gotten fifty seven pressures
in its first three playoff games. That's the most by
any team in its first three playoff game since two
thousand and nine. Kalevon Jason has turned into Bruce Smith
in this playoffs eighteen pressures he has in three games.
(12:10):
And not only are the Patriots putting heat on quarterbacks,
and not only do they have guys who can cover
in the back end Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones. They're only
giving up three point one yards per carry in the playoffs,
so they are stopping run and pass. And on the
other side, you know, you've got the Seahawks who are
top five in pressure rate despite blitzing at the eighth
(12:32):
lowest rate in the league. The Patriots have allowed the
tenth highest pressure rate in the league. That was during
the regular season against the pretty easy schedule, and they've
been giving up even more pressure in the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (12:44):
To these good defenses.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
The Seattle secondary is loaded with the Von Witherspoon, Julian Love,
Nicki Minwari, Kobe Bryant. I think we're going to see
two teams really struggle to move the ball, Matt, And
of course there are things that can short circuit under bets,
defensive touchdowns, short fields, turnovers that create those short fields. Yeah,
(13:07):
there's absolutely a chance it could go over this, but
no one likes betting the under, So I think the
over has said about two and a half points higher
than it really should be, if not more, maybe closer
to three. I think it should be like forty two
and a half, and we're getting it at forty five
and a half. I think there's gonna be a real
(13:27):
struggle to get to forty points in this game. And
I just I think there's amazing value in the under.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
If I'm gonna play it, I think a teasing up
to fifty one and a half and taking the under
is where I would go because I think it's a
twenty seven to twenty four final for the Patriots, and
I know that kind of gives away my play, but
I am on two futures. I have a Seal ticket
at fourteen to one and a Patriot future at eleven
to one. So who wins the game doesn't really matter
(13:55):
to me. I'll make a pick on it. But who
wins the game doesn't really matter to me. But I
am betting the over like you meant at forty five
and a half. The reason is because I do think
the special team's portion of this game is going to
be significant. The Patriots have one of the best kick
returners in punt returners in the game, and Marcus Jones
I think he is going to make a big play
in this game. The Patriots have been known to turn
(14:18):
the football over, but so have Sam Darnold in the Seahawks.
I do think this game is going to have turnovers
on both sides. I do think there's a good shot
that Drake may gets hit any fumbles. I do think
there's a good shot that we get some type of
special teams play in this game that leads to points.
So to me, I think it's a game in the
twenties I don't think it's a repeat of the Rams
(14:38):
Patriots thirteen to three Super Bowl. I think we're going
to see and it is contrrion. I know a lot
of people that are on your side, a lot of
people that I trust in, people whose opinions I respect,
yours included, that are on the under, and I can
one hundred percent see it because both quarterbacks may have
a bear of a time against these defenses. I just
think the Patriots are going to find a way to
(14:59):
score and then that's going to open up Sam Donald.
It will lead to points, but it also will lead
to mistakes by Sam Darnald, and I do expect him
to make some pretty big ones in this game. I
think the Patriots. Sam Donald's zero to four in his
career against the Patriots, and he scored a grand total
of twenty three points against New England. You can tell
me all you want about the Jets and everything else
(15:20):
going on, but this guy has not played well against
the Patriots. So to me, I think we're gonna see
a little more offense than people think in this game.
But I understand the under for sure, because on paper,
I think that's the correct read. I'm just gonna go
contrarian because it's the Super Bowl, and I feel like
everyone is on the under. It was forty six two
days ago, we're down to forty five and a half.
(15:41):
So when the limits start to be opened up, you're
seeing people come in and at the under.
Speaker 3 (15:46):
Yeah, I'll buy that. And then for the side, yep.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
I like the Patriots on the money line, and right
now it's plus one p ninety eight in most spots,
that's the number I'm seeing. I think you can find
it at plus one ninety five in some spots, and
maybe if you're right about this spread getting as high
as five or five and a half, you might be
able to get it a plus two hundred or even
a little higher.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
I like getting that.
Speaker 2 (16:12):
I mean, I do think it's justified that the Seahawks
are favorites, and I do think they probably have a
better than fifty to fifty chance to win, although maybe
not that much better than fifty percent. At plus one
ninety you're basically saying the Patriots have a thirty five
percent chance to win, and I think their odds are
better than that, So I think there's value there. And
(16:34):
rather than take the points and bet that it's a
close game. I would rather just take the chance to,
you know, make three to one on my bet.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
I like it. I mean, I do think there's other
ways of approaching it. If you don't want to take
the plus on that you want some insurance, and you
could take Patriot moneyline at plus one ninety and then
t is the Patriots from plus five up to plus eleven,
take the total from forty six up to fifty two
and take under, or fifty one and a half and
take under. So I do think there's a same game
parlay opportunity here. I do not believe this is a blowout. Okay,
(17:08):
I don't think the Patriots blow out the Seahawks. I
don't think the Seahawks blow out the Patriots. So I
think this game is ripe for a teaser like that.
If you want to, and people like betting the under,
if you want to pull it down from forty five
and a half down to thirty nine and a half
and take the over, you can do that. But you
are running the risk that these defenses do what everyone
thinks they're going to do. And this game is like
(17:29):
the Patriots in the Rams and it's thirteen to three.
But I think the Patriots have some advantages here that
people aren't putting enough respect on. And I think it
comes down to the running game for New England. I
think Traveon Henderson is going to have a big game
in the Super Bowl. I think Ramandra Stevenson is going
to have a big game in the Super Bowl. And
(17:49):
there's a lot of confidence. I think when you're in
this game, you see it from just the mistakes that
get made. Pete Carroll, for instance. Obviously coaches just doing
differently because it's the Super Bowl. They don't think the
same way. I know Mike McDonald has dominated quarterbacks under
the age of twenty five. I don't care Josh McDaniels
has been, like you mentioned, in a couple of these games.
(18:12):
The Patriots head coach has won three of them himself. Like,
this is an organization that is used to being in
this game. They know the prep, they know the game,
they know how to get ready for a Super Bowl
more than any other franchise. And I think that plays
out here against Seattle with a quarterback in Sam Darnold
who's trying to prove himself and trying to justify his existence,
(18:34):
and an offensive coordinator who now is looking at the
Raiders saying that's my team. Don't tell me Clint Kubiak
is not just a little bit distracted. Okay, he's just
a little bit distracted. He's going to be a head
coach for the first time, and he's coming here to Vegas.
Like the Monday morning press conference after the Super Bowl
is going to be Clint Kubiak coming here to Vegas
to be introduced. So there's a lot of things go
(18:56):
running around this Seattle franchise that if I'm a Seahawk fan,
I'm a little bit certain.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Let me throw
a few other pluses at you. From the Patriots point
of view. Super Bowl experience. Mentioned that Patriots offensive coordinator
Josh McDaniels has been a part of six New England championships.
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has three championship rings from
his playing days with the Pats. Milton Williams, who you
(19:22):
talked about earlier, won a championship with the Eagles last year.
Carlton Davis has won one with the Buccaneers. Mac Collins
is one one with the Eagles. Like, there's some Super
Bowl experience on that side of the ball, even though
the Patriots are viewed as this young, upstar team and
then you were talking about Darnold a second ago, Matt, like,
(19:43):
I think Drake May is the better quarterback in this game.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
Experience be damned.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
I mean, so, if you're going to give me either
more than a field goal as far as points or
give me a plus one ninety plus two hundred on
the money line, yeah, I always feel good about taking
the team that has the better quarterback when I'm getting
those types of odds.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Well, let's talk about prop bets because Donald is one
of my prop bets that I like, and I will
make more prop bets throughout the week on the Daily
Juice podcast. You guys can find it here on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel. So if you want more than
just these props, I'm gonna give you guys. I'll have
one every single day leading up to the game on Sunday.
But I like Sam Darlan to throw a pick. I
think it comes down to the pressure the Patriots are
(20:24):
gonna face are gonna put on him, and he's gonna
face up the middle. I think Donald will make a
mistake in this game because we've seen it in the past.
He did it against the Rams. He gets pressured, guys
are in his face, and he'll throw the ball up
for grabs at times, trying to make a play. Kind
not on the same level as to what happens in
the AFC Championship game, but similarly, I do think he
(20:45):
will make a mistake. I like him to throw a pick.
It's not expensive. It should be somewhere around mys one
thirty one thirty five on Darlom to throw a pick.
How to feel about Darnald get intercepted by the Patriots defense.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
I feel pretty good about that. It was last night.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
It was minus one thirty one, Okay, And are you
surprised at all that Drake May had Drake May's minus
won forty one to throw an interception? Does that surprise
you that the odds of Drake May throwing one are
shorter than the odds of Donald throwing one.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
No, it's public perception. I think the public perception is
that Drake May is going to turn the football over
as much as he had all postseason, which I disagree
with because, as I said, I think the Patriots are
going to run the football, and I think they're going
to be effective running the football With a young quarterback,
they're going to protect him and Josh I don't think
it's going to be looking to throw the ball deep
all that often, but I'm not surprised, no. I think
(21:35):
the general thought is that Drake May is going to
be outplayed by Sam Donald, and that's why Donald's number
is shorter. From a pick perspective, yeah, I.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Get that, and maybe also that the Seahawks were pretty
run heavy during the regular season, maybe a little more
so than the Patriots. And I think ideally, in a
perfect world for Clint Kubiak, Sam Donald does have to
throw twenty five or few or passes in this game.
I just don't know if the Patriots defense is going
to allow that with the way they've stopped the run.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Look, it's the Super bowlright, so it'd be the first
time all year they get gashed in the run game.
And Kenneth Walker the third is tremendous. I just think
the Zach Scharbonay injury is much bigger than people think.
And I've been talking about the whole postseason that at
some point they were going to hit a defense. It's
gonna make them pay for not having more than one
option on the running back side and in the red
zone where Zach Sharbonay was a complete vulture for touchdowns.
(22:24):
If the Patriots can hold this offense to field goals
and then they go and score touchdowns, that's how they
win the Super Bowls by leaning on their defense. So
I'd be careful with the Kenneth Walker props. I'm seeing
people say that Walker is gonna have a big game.
I'd be very careful. Yes, it's the Super Bowl and
weird wonky things happen, but all year long, the Patriots
defense has not been impacted by running backs all that much.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
I agree.
Speaker 2 (22:47):
And if Walker doesn't have a run of more than
twenty yards, I don't not think whatever his rushing total
is right now, and I can't remember.
Speaker 1 (22:55):
Think it's like sixty five to seventy somewhere that runs.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
Yeah, he's not going over if he doesn't have a
run of longer than twenty yards. So I think I'd
rather bet on the long run than I would on
the just total over for rushing yardage.
Speaker 1 (23:07):
What's a prop you like that?
Speaker 2 (23:09):
So we've talked about the pass rushes and how the
Patriots have had trouble blocking things up in the playoffs
and how much heat the Patriots have been putting on
in the playoffs. So I like a sack bet in
this game. And I've seen five and a half and
six and a half in different spots. As the total,
(23:31):
I'm taking it up to eight sacks or more. Matt
at plus three point thirty, I think we're going to
see eight or more total sacks in the game. I
want the bigger number, and I want to boost those
odds and give myself a tidy little payout when that hits.
Speaker 1 (23:46):
Have you done the math yet if you looked and
see have there has there been a game involving the
Patriots and the Sales where we've seen a sack total
that high?
Speaker 2 (23:53):
I haven't checked that, but I mean, how many times
has Drake may been sacked in the playoffs? Hasn't he
been sacked at least four four times every game?
Speaker 1 (24:00):
I want to say, Yeah, that's why I think they're
gonna run the ball, because I don't think they're gonna
let him sit back there and let Seattle's defensive line
get after him the same way that they did with
the you know, I mean, I guess the Broncos go
after him a little bit. The weather obviously really hampered
the ability to throw the ball for New England. But yeah,
against the Texans he got lit up. I mean the Texans.
(24:21):
Will Anderson was in the backfield the entire game hitting
Drake May. So I love the odds though, I mean
there's a real big potential because I would say individually, like,
if you can find a book that's offering a Milton
Williams sack, prop I would take that. I think if
you find a Christian Barmore sack, prop, I would take that.
(24:41):
I think you're onto something. In terms of the sacks
for both teams, I think both offensive and defensive lines
are gonna be talked about quite a bit in this game.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah. And for the record, May has been sacked five
times in each of his three playoff games.
Speaker 1 (24:55):
Fuck off five times. Interesting case. Remember if he run
it gets tackled behind the line of scrimmage, that is
still a sack. So that's how he does So that's
that's that works.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
And that is what May has been doing a lot
of this season. He's been taking a lot of sacks,
but for not a lot of yardage because he tries
to escape the pocket and move forward and a lot
of times he gets tripped up like a yard or
two behind the line of scrimmage. So I do think
we're going to see a lot of sacks there. And
maybe the only point at which we differ in how
(25:26):
we see this game going, maybe you might think the
Patriots have a little more success in the running game
than I do.
Speaker 3 (25:33):
That Seattle run defense.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
I mean, they are number one in DVOA against the
run and just a phenomenal rundee.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
I think both teams are going to struggle.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
To run the ball, quite honestly, and I think they're
gonna have no choice but to try to throw.
Speaker 1 (25:46):
So if they're gonna run zone coverage in the back,
Travon Henderson's gonna kill him. So I can't wait to
see what the defensive game plan is going to be
for Mike McDonald because he's he has really disguised defense
as well, and that's why young quarterbacks struggle mightily, because
he'll flash one thing and then it'll be in something else.
But generally speaking, when the Patriots have seen zone coverage
(26:09):
in the back, their offensive line is really good up
the middle, and so they've run the ball with Trevion
Henderson and they've popped big runs this season with Treveon Henderson.
So I'll be very curious to see what the defensive
game plan is going to be for Seattle, and if
they run their typical base, the Patriots should be able
to run the football against this team, just given their
run scheme up against the run scheme the run stopping
(26:30):
steam for Seattle. But I get your point. I mean,
on paper, Seattle has done a very good job of
taking away the run. It also, I think that number
is skewed by how often Seattle had the lead. Teams
weren't able to run all that much on Seattle. They
had to throw to get back into the game, so
that limited the number of times. The Patriots playing with
(26:51):
a lead in this game is going to be very important.
That they need to be the one dictating tempo. They
need to be the one that puts pressure on Sam Darnold.
And when this game gets late and late and late,
I think all of those headlines about Sam Darnald start
to come into play. In the quote Icee ghosts that
could be coming back again here for Sam Darnald and
(27:12):
this career that has been remarkably rejuvenated both last year
in Minnesota and now this year. Here in Seattle for
my second prop bet. It's when I make every single year,
and it's kind of it's the first bet I make
every year. It's that the shortest touchdown will be under
one and a half yards. It comes down to goal line,
it comes down to tush pushes, it comes down to
(27:35):
if there's a foul in the end zone the ball
comes to the one yard line. Under one and a
half yards for a touchdown has been just a staple
bet I make every single year. It's hit I think
eight of the last ten years. So I'm going to
come in here under one and a half for the
shortest touchdown in the game. Pap.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Yeah, you have told me that it's an auto bet
for you in the Super Bowl every year and explained
the rationale to me.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
And I I like it. I think it makes a
lot of sense.
Speaker 2 (28:02):
The only thing is I just I don't think there's
gonna be a lot of touchdowns in this game, so
to me, I feel like the true odds of it
happening are probably a little shorter than you might, but
I still.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
Think it's a pretty sound bet.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
Yeah. I like the over, so you like the Undersie,
I'm betting narrative essentially. And yes, if it's thirteen to
three and we get one touchdown, yeah, that's a problem
this bet would have will be problematic for sure.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
And I think we're trying to make correlated props here,
and that's kind of the case with my second bet too.
And they say, Matt, that imitation is the sincerest form
of flattery, and I'm trying to imitate something you did
in last year's Super Bowl and one with and I
believe your bet was that there would be a punt
down inside either the five or the ten yard line.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
You're stealing my bets, Pat, This is great.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Yes, well, yeah, I remember texting you the bag of
money emoji at.
Speaker 3 (28:59):
When that one hit.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Yep, So I couldn't find that one. But I still
like bets because I do think there are gonna be
a lot of punts in this game. So if I
can get a prop with something happening on a punt
at good odds, I like that because I think there're
gonna be a lot of punts. And I couldn't get
one for being down inside the five or ten yard line,
but I could get a bet for at least one
(29:21):
touchback on a punt in this game at plus one
twenty five, and I like that just because I do think.
I also like the over on total punts, which I
think is like seven and a half for this, but
I think you get a little bit better priced rather
than bet minus ten on over seven and a half punts,
I'll take plus money on a touchback.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
The other angle two and this is the old Pat
McAfee k ball kicking conversation about the ball is a
commemorative ball, and the ball and they tend to bring
the gate, the ball tends to be brought out and returned.
The new kickoff rules has sort of altered that bet,
but I do think you can look around on kickoffs
(30:03):
as to how many yards the kickoff gets returned, or
does it be a touchback or not. I mean those
are if you're looking for fun ways. What my advice is,
as we'll wrap here as when my advice will be
to people when it comes to how to bet the
Super Bowl, give yourself a bunch of options, like don't
just go crazy on the coin toss, don't go crazy
on things at the top at the beginning, because if
(30:24):
you lose, you're gonna be sour for the entire four quarters.
So try to give yourself bets that you can hit
throughout the entire game that every time that something happens,
like your punt bet is perfect. Every time they punt,
you're now watching. You're like, Oh, here we go. You're
engaged and you're watching what's gonna happen? So same thing
with runs you know of you know you mentioned longest
(30:45):
run for Kenneth Walker. I like that every time Kennth
Walker gets to the football, you're like, oh, can he
bust it? And so you're watching and see if your
BET's gonna cash. So that's my advice in terms of
how to bet this thing. Give yourself enough bets where
you're locked in through all four quarters vers us like
the national anthem, the color of the gator raid, like
things that are just sort of like one and done
(31:06):
that either it happens or it doesn't. Do you have
any advice?
Speaker 2 (31:10):
Great point, like for maximum enjoyments in addition to the
chance to make money. I mean, we want to have
fun throughout this and I agree if you make kind
of wise bets that you have a chance to hit
at any point in the game, that's a good way
to do it.
Speaker 1 (31:23):
Yeah, I don't know what I'm gonna do in the
Super Bowl because a couple of years ago, I couldn't
get a bet right. I got everything wrong all playoff long,
and then I swept the board and went eight to
zero and all my bets in the Super Bowl. I've
had a very good year in the NFL, so I
don't know if that means I'm gonna have an awful
Super Bowl. It could happen where everything just falls apart
from me, but I'm hoping it doesn't. I don't care
(31:45):
if I lose every bet. If the Patriots win, I
don't care. How like, get the Patriots the seventh championship.
I think the best play on the board, you like
the under. My best play on the board is Patriots
plus five. I think that it is a too heavy
of a number. I think you go ahead and take
the Patriots plus five, sprinkle on the money line. You
(32:05):
can do the teaser like I mentioned, with the same
game teaser and taking the total down I are up,
and then bedding the under. I think those are the
best ways of approaching this. I can't wait to watch
this game, PAP, because I think this is really gonna
be a wild game. Do you have a score prediction.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Yeah, it's weird because I'm picking the Patriots on the
money line, But ultimately, like, I think it is less
than a fifty to fifty chance to finish. So I'll
say twenty to twenty to seventeen Seattle.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
Don't hate it. Twenty seventeen your better the Pitt's money line,
and your prediction is twenty seventeen Seattle.
Speaker 3 (32:34):
I do think.
Speaker 2 (32:34):
Look, I think I think the Patriots chances of winning
are better than thirty five percent, okay, But playing the
other I think it's Seattle's chances of winning are better
than fifty percent.
Speaker 1 (32:45):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
That's why I think the money line is just a
good like it's a sensible percentage play.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
If you're right, I cash a fourteen to one ticket
and I'm good. So it's it's it's I make more
money if Seattle wins, I make more money. But my
prediction is twenty seven to twenty four Patriots. On a
last second kick, I think New England wins it. At
the buzzer, I think this is almost a repeat of
the Rams game. I think it's going to be a
fantastic performance by the Patriot defense. I just think that
(33:15):
Seattle is going to score. I think there could be
special teams. There could be turnovers because of fumbles or
interceptions that lead to quick points for Seattle. There could
be a punt return for a touchdown, a kick return
for the touchdown special teams touchdown, I think is a
good bet. I think that there's a decent shot that
happens in this game, given both skill players, the speed
of Seattle and the speed of New England. I think
(33:36):
both will come into play here. And I think we're
going to see points or at least set up points
by the special teams, which will lead to the game
going over twenty seven to twenty four in New England.
Let's see what happens. Pat, this has been an unbelievable season, man,
thank you for all the time. This was awesome. I
can't wait to do this again coming up next year.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
Likewise, Matt, and by the way, for the record, if
you believe it's going to be a last second field
goal eight to one on a scoring play on the
last play of the game.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
It absolutely love it. Eight to one. Love it. That's
a sprinkle bet. You should make that bet just for
the hell of it. A sprinkle play for that could
go to overtime. Bet the yes to the overtime too.
The books will cry if bet the overtime. I do
think this is going to be a four quarter battle.
I do think this is going to be fun, and
I do think that favors the Patriots to have that
game come down to one last play because they've been
very clutch. Seattle has two, but I think the Patriots
(34:21):
have had kind of a rabbit's foot this year that
will come into play and then everyone come Monday morning.
All I can say is just don't have the referees
be involved.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (34:30):
Just don't have the referees be involved. He is bad
fits Morris. I am at Paroltz. Make sure you subscribe
to the Betting Pros YouTube channel because we've got a
ton of great content coming all week for the big Game.
I will be there for a couple of days, going
to San Francisco, so it's gonna be a lot of fun.
Daily Juice will be taping from Media Row the Media
Center coming up in San Francisco a couple of days
(34:51):
coming up for this week. Enjoy the game, guys, be safe,
don't do anything stupid. We want to see you all
back here next year for another early bet show for
the NFL.
Speaker 5 (35:00):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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