January 15, 2026 • 32 mins
Join Joe Pisapia and Andrew Erickson as they highlight their favorite bets to make for Divisional Round Weekend around the NFL!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Bills Money Line - 0:00:41
1st Half Total Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos U 23.5 - 0:02:55
Seattle Seahawks -7 - 0:04:40
San Francisco 49ers +7 - 0:07:48
49ers vs Seahawks Under 44.5 - 0:09:01
BettingPros Discord - 0:12:29
Patriots ML/Game Total Under 49.5 - 0:13:10
Houston Texans +3 - 0:17:26
Chicago Bears +3.5 - 0:21:06
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 - 0:22:59
Hard Rock Best Bet of The Week - 0:26:11
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey P joe P Zapia and
this as BP NFL. We've advanced to the Divisional round
of the NFL playoffs. And Andrew Rickson, the Undertaker and
I are here to help you get your best bets
for the week. And don't forget to download the Betting
Pros app that's smarter, not harder, use the tools, don't
be a tool, and subscribe to our channel here on
(00:23):
YouTube and of course wherever you get your podcasts as well.
Andrew Errickson, we had a pretty entertaining weekend of football.
I hope this week lives up to last week's standard
that we've set. And let's see where you want to
kick things off today with your first bet for Divisional
Round number two for the NFL.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I am taking the Buffalo Bills on the money line
to beat the Denver Broncos on the road. This line
is kind of all over the place. I'm not sure
what we would tell you right now would even be
the line when you look when this is released, Because
it's Bill's plus one to have, it's Bill's minus want
to have, it's the Broncos are favorit, it's the Bills
are favorite. So I'm kind of throwing that all out
the way I know, against the spread, and I'm just
(01:01):
gonna look at the Buffalo Bills as the team is
going to win because Joe, like we saw last week,
when they have the superior quarterback, they end up winning
that game. And I know that you and I both
like the Jacksonville Jaguars last week against Buffalo, and I
think how that game played out, I don't think that
that was like a terrible process play again, it was
a close game, went down to the wire. Jaguars obviously
fell short, but the way Buffalo was able to win
(01:23):
despite James Cook having an underwhelming performance. Look, I just
don't want to keep betting against Josh Allen. If you
look at the quarterbacks that he has lost to in
the postseason, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen's first game in
the playoffs, Patch Mahomes on multiple occasions, and Joe Burrow
every other game he's won. So when he is hands
(01:43):
down the better quarterback in the playoff matchup, the Buffalo
Bills win these postseason games. So I'm going to bet
on Josh Allen against bow Nicks, who I don't think
really took a massive step forward in his second season.
Are we looking at the Denver Broncos number one seed
and painting the picture of oh yeah, Owns really stepped
up in year two. I think that he kind of
regressed a little bit if you look at him during
(02:05):
his last nine games, eight of his last nine games
sub ninety passer rating, and in Week eighteen against a
bunch of backup Chargers players, that offense looked wicked dysfunctional.
So I think the Broncos yes nine and went at
home the season, but just five and five straight up,
or excuse me, five and five against the spread. Never
Brouncas have not been a profitable bet as a favorite
(02:26):
this season. So if the Buffalo Bills closes the underdogs here,
give me Josh Allen as a dog three to zer
against the spread as an underdog this season, and just
similar to Patrick mahomes, hey is Patrick mahomes an underdog
in the postseason until it doesn't You keep betting until
it doesn't work, essentially, And that's how I feel about
Josh Allen, especially if the public again, even last week,
I was betting against him. I was wrong, and I'm done.
(02:48):
I'm done doing that, So give me the bills on
the mining line to beat the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
I think he makes some very coching arguments, and I
even liked that that Massachusetts came out that wicked for
a moment.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Then thank you.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
So there you go. Just clearly been hanging out with
his cousins last weekend watching the Patriots game. It Woosta.
He was hanging out in Woa watching a game, watching
the Pats. Look, I gotta tell you, I think this
game for me. I see lots of different outcomes here.
So instead I'm going to with something I can control.
And Andrew Rickson, do you like to guess what the
average point total for the Denver Broncos is in the
(03:20):
first half of games this year? Maybe you know this,
you're a smart guy, but I figured I would throw
this out at you. Take a guess average.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Considering I think Denver has won most of its games
in the second half and in the fourth quarter, it's
probably gonna be a low number.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
I will say twelve and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
They're tove and a half points lower, Bob oh, No,
like lower than ten?
Speaker 1 (03:42):
No, ten point nine.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Ten point nine, okay, ten point nine.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Which means they had to buy They're coming off a
little flat, right, Typically those teams, even good offense has
come out a little flat after a bye week, right
in the playoffs. It's a long season.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
I think that this is the one thing that I
can really controlling this game. I'm gonna take the first
half Buffalo Bills Denver Broncos under twenty three and a
half total. I think that if Denver does what they do,
which is put up their ten spot, and even if
the bronc even if the Bills can, you know, somehow
manage thirteen against that really good defense, I'm still gonna
clear this bar by the hook. So I feel good
(04:20):
about this. I could see this very well being maybe
a seven to seven game at halftime and maybe a
little lackluster. So I'm gonna take the under here on
the twenty three and a half here, I think, uh,
like I said, Denver, as you pointed out, Bo Nicks
has been a fourth quarter coming quarterback. I'm afraid that
he's gonna do that again to the Buffalo Bills because
he's done it to a lot of teams this season.
(04:40):
So I'm just gonna avoid it. I'm gonna chop this
game in half, take what I can control, and then
move on to game number two here, which is the
San Francisco forty nine Ers and the Seattle Seahawks. Andrew
walk us through your favorite bet on this one.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
I am taking the Seattle Seahawks, laying the points at
home minus seven, and I can get into a bunch
of different and trends here. I think this is one
that I like the most. I shared with this with
pat This Morris in our private slack chat. So since
nineteen eighty four, teams with eight plus days of rest
advantage into playoffs against their opponent seven to zero straight up.
(05:13):
In those games, the team with shorter rest has been
held to ten or fewer points in six of those
seven games, while the team with longer rest has scored
twenty or more points in all seven games. This is
not a good matchup for Kyle Shannon and this forty
nine Ers team. We've seen him go up against McDonald's
defense four times already in two seasons, and their offense
(05:34):
has not been productive, scoring on average below twenty points
per game. Last week, I was very much on the
Philadelphia Eagles to destroy the forty nine Ers, and the
minute that Lane Johnson was ruled out, I immediately knew
that I was screwed, and I wish I could take
back everything I said.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Because you and me both will eat the l on
that one.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
But I don't want to give again. I can't discredit
we were right about the Bears.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
The Bears did it.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, no Bears.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
They are sucked in basically for three quarters and ended
up pulling it off as they tend to do. But
the thing that I don't want to overlook with the
forty nine or overstate is, oh, this forty nine Ers defense, right,
It's so it was the Eagles. Okay, this Eagles and
neft offense that has shown at times that they can't
even get a first down in an entire second half
of football. They had the lowest pressure rate of the
(06:22):
season on Jalen Hurts last week, and the Eagles offense
still couldn't get out of their own way. So I
think that game last week was much more about the
Eagles dysfunction and less about oh, this forty nine Ers
gritty defense. This fort Niners defense lost another starter last week.
They don't have anybody left, so I think Eventually the
injuries are going to catch up with them in a
(06:43):
matchup against a team that I think is far superior
on the defensive side of the football. Seattle's Seattle dominated
the forty nine ers just two weeks ago. It was
one of the worst offensive performances of the year for
the San Francisco forty nine Ers, so Seattle much rested.
They're getting Charles crossback, their stud offensive tackle. Seattle's two
to zero against the spread straight up after a bye
week under McDonald, six and three against the spread seven
(07:05):
to two straight up with rest advantage since McDonald took
over as the Seahawks head coach and the forty nine
Ers this is the team that you want to fade
after they win as an underdog one to five against
the spread. As underdog following a win, they failed to
cover the spread sixteen of their last twenty one games
following a win, and Matt Parult dropped this on the
one of the earlier shows on the Betting Pro Show,
Sam Donald thirteen to oh straight up, ten and three
(07:27):
against the spread as a six point plus favorite. In
me the Seattle Seahawks to dominate this game against the
forty nine.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Ers, I think the Seahawks dominate this game, but I
don't think they cover the spread. And I think those
two things can be true. In all that data that
you laid out there, of those games on the eight
days of rest and all that good stuff, how many
of those teams ended up facing an indivision opponent. I
don't know if you have that information at your fingertips
or not, but to me, it's a little bit of
a familiarity breeds contempt. I think the four Niners know
(07:56):
that they're on borrowed time. I don't think they're under
nearly the sure. I think going and winning against the
Eagles last week was great for them. They lost George Kittle,
like everything should point to exactly what Andrew's talking about,
Which is why I'm gonna go the other way, because
all of the good process all year long has taught
me one thing. If it looks too good to be true,
if it smells too nice, chances are it's rotten and
(08:20):
you open it up, He's just not gonna be right.
And somehow, I don't know if it's a backdoor brock
perty cover, I don't know. If some weird things happen,
I don't think Seattle's in danger of losing this game.
Just like I said last week about the Patriots, I
was uncomfortable with the number, but I never thought the
Patriots would be in danger of losing that football game.
And to be honest with you, watching that game last
Sunday night, I was never worried that the Patriots weren't
(08:42):
gonna find a way to win that football game, or
that the Chargers would find a way to somehow eake
out of w never thought that was gonna happen. But
I think seven's a little much, So I'm gonna go
ahead and take the forty nine ers to cover. I
still like Seattle to win. I'm all for that. And
my other pick in this game here is the under
forty four and a half. And if I get that under,
and that's my pick number three here, it's minus one
(09:04):
of four in a lot of markets. Right now, you
can get it. I do think that San Fran gets
closer to that cover of the seven. Now, Andrew, you
are also for pick number three in on the under,
let's talk about your reasons why.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
Yeah, So this matchup between the Seahogs forty nine Ers
is going We've seen this play out a Lot Division rivals.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Three of the last four.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Games between these two teams have been three straight unders,
and no game has exceeded thirty seven points. So really
it wasn't until that first matchup when it was the
forty nine ers against McDonald. And we've seen this with
McDonald even during his time with the Baltimore Ravens, where
it does take time for his defense for his players
to understand the scheme right. Even in some of the
earlier days with the Ravens they were getting like lit
(09:45):
up by posing offenses, but then eventually in the second
half they really start to come into form. And we've
seen that all throughout this season of how Seattle's defense
has been. Again looking at the top defense of the
NFL that we all agree that Houston is number one,
but Seattle right on their heels as one of the
best units in the NFL, especially playing at home. Mentioned
this earlier when fading the forty Niners. Shanahan has averaged
(10:06):
eighteen point three points per game in four games against
Mike McDonald since he became the Seahawks head coach. That
is the fewest among sixteen head coaches. Shanahan has faced
at least three times including the playoffs. So yes, Shanahan
pulled out all the tricks last week, has Juwan Jennings
throwing passes the Christian McCaffrey. That's what's gonna take for
the forty Niners to score points in this game, because
I think they're vastly undermanned. You mentioned it. I didn't
(10:28):
even mention this when handicapping this game. But no George Kittle,
this team average is significantly less points per game. For
fewer points scored per game without George Kittle, their yards
per play drops by nearly half a yard. You're taking
one of the most explosive and reliable playmakers. That is
Brock Purdy's guy. And we know George Kittle is a
matchup nightmare, especially against Seattle, who has been had against
(10:49):
tight ends. Yes, we love Jake Tungus. He's a fun guy.
Maybe you can bet the overd on his props. But
is he gonna be the reason why the forty nin
Ers come away with the upset here? Probably not, So
I agree with you that the unders again. To me,
this feels like Seahawks win like thirty to ten. Like
that's kind of how I feel that this game being
a shakeout where they can establish to run a little
bit with Ken Walker and Zach Sharbonne who ran all
(11:09):
over the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
I mean that thirteen to three final score in.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Week eighteen is so fugazi because Seattle dominated that game
up and down the board, and the fort Nites were
lucky to lose by only ten points. So I think
that again to your point, you don't disagree with me
that Seattle dominates, but you think that the score might
just be a little bit.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Yeah, I think it's gonna be like a twenty to
sixteen game where the forty nine ers get a touchdown
late the fourth quarter, but it's already the game's already
out of hands. That's the way, Like I said, it's like,
you're gonna be at one point, it's gonna be twenty
to ten, and you'd be like, oh, you know, then
maybe they try to go for the two or something
like that. It just it just feels very much like
(11:46):
Seattle's and control of this game. But San Fran again
last gasp against the Indivision team, They're not gonna go quietly.
The familiarity again of these teams. Whenever there's familiar teams,
they tend to play each other a little bit tighter.
It's just thing we've learned all year long. Especially. You can't,
you know, you can't overlook these teams that are going
on the road with nothing to lose, and the forty
(12:07):
nine ers have nothing to lose but another game and
go home, and they've lost so much this year. They've
been another or another defense, were offensive player. Let's be honest.
Let's be honest. I mean, by the way, do you
watch that study about the magnetic fields to practice. It's
kind of fascinating. I kind of think we need a
deeper dive there. Let's go. I want it all right
before we get to our next pick here number four
(12:28):
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here on the channel again on Saturday, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos,
(12:50):
Joe Pisa, Pa Scott Bogman will be here live on
the channel, so ring the belts that goes ding when
you subscribe, join us live here on the YouTube channel
so you can watch in game live betting Bills and Broncos.
Last week was super fun between the Rams and Panthers,
and it's gonna be more fun. So I want you
to hang out with us and watch that football game.
All right, number four on our list here, let's talk
(13:12):
about it. Andrew Erickson Pats Texans. Let's get your take
on this one.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
I'm gonna be at this game, Joe. I'm gonna be now,
I know. I mean, I really was.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
I had to stop myself from looking at the Patriots
record against the spreading games that I've attended. I had
to stop myself from looking at this lest things. One
of these trends. How is honestly that matters to me?
Speaker 1 (13:34):
How is that number is?
Speaker 2 (13:35):
I did go to the game last year. The game
I went to Joe Milton started or he didn't start
playing the game. But the Patriots did win as underdogs in.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Week eighteen, So.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I am kind of hedging here a little bit here
with the Patriots on the money line. I first looked
at the spread and you're seeing threes, you're seeing three
and a halves, and ultimately, I think that this game
is settled by a field goal. So if I bet
Patriots minus three and I sit through a three hour
game and they win by field goal and I just
get a push, that's not how I want to enjoy
this game, to be totally honest, Like, I want the
(14:08):
Patriots to win obviously, just like you do, Joe as
a Patriots fan. But I also want to be smart
from a waging perspective, So I would not be laying
the points at if it stays at minus three with
New England, just because of how good Houston has been
at covering three and a half this year. So fifteen
of eighteen games the Texans have covered plus three and
a half. That's eighty four percent of the time. So yeah,
(14:32):
I think that Texans can keep this within a field goal,
and I think that would be the sharp play to
play the spread. But I like going with the Patriots
online in the game total going under forty nine and
a half points. So if you combine those two, you
get minus one oh five odds, which is the same
as basically taking the Patriots against the spread, and we know, Joe,
I don't need to sell the listeners on oh well
you should bet that under on a Texans game, right.
(14:52):
I don't think that that really needs a lot of
data back behind it, but because I like providing it.
If you look at the Texans only four games they've
played this year, I have scone over fifty total points,
and then you're also taking Nico Collins out of the
lineup here, So.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Yeah, Collins injury is huge. That's a big beast missing
for that explosive. It's not look Christian yek category game.
Jaydan Higgins is capable, but they're not Nico Collins at
this point, I would agree. So that's kind of my
take on the game. I do want to talk about
a little bit why I think the Patriots can win
this game Specifically, I think that this is probably one
of the tougher ones of the divisional weekend where you're seeing
(15:30):
two really good teams going head to head, and how
good the Houston Texans defense. I think that the line
is actually over counting the loss of Nico Collins because
if you look at this Texans win streak, how many
of these games you're going to credit, Oh, well, they
won because they had Nico Collins, I would say, like,
none of these games, it's all about their They were
winning with Davis Mills as their quarterback.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Of their defense.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
So these lines, Joe, I looked at it before Wild
Card we get kicked off. Patriots were favored by minus
one and a half points, so they were really close favorites,
and the line has obviously expanded. I think it's because
of the Collins injury, but I don't think that's right,
because the defense is the only reason you should betting
on the Houston Texans, like you should really like not
care about, Oh it's c J.
Speaker 3 (16:12):
Stroud, Like he's zero and two.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
On the road as a road underdog in the playoffs,
those are the things that I would be looking at
Houston as a road underdog four and seven straight up,
six and five against the spread. So I think that again,
going back to if you have to pick against the spread,
Houston plus three and a half is the line that
I would take it out. That's someone that you like
as well, so I'll kind of throw it to you here.
I would say, though, with the Patriots that and just
lock the last point here why I think they can
(16:34):
win is the Texans defense one of their biggest weaknesses
is against mobile quarterbacks. They rank thirty second against quarterbacks
scrambles this season.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
And I can't get out.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Of my mind Riley Leonard, a seventh round rookie quarterback
for the Colts and lighting this defense up in the
first half of Week eighteen when they were playing.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Their starters, And what does Riley Leonard have? Mobility?
Speaker 2 (16:55):
So I think that's going to play a big factor
of that we're going to talk about. We're going to
talk about Drake May and his rushing yards on the
Player Prop show.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
That's right, you got to watch that show too. It's
why I subscribe to the channel. But yeah, I mean
watching Aaron Rodgers stand in that pocket and take hit
after a hit, that's not going to be Drake May.
And look, he faced a good defense last week and
the Chargers give him credit, and they rushed the quarterback
and they got after him. But Drake May is able
to escape Drake May and make plays with his legs.
So neither Houston has to change a little bit of
what they do or be prepared for Drake May to
(17:22):
run the ragget a little bit, because Drake May will
do that to them. And I think that's the difference
of this game. But I am on the textan side
of this game with the plus three because I think
it's a one point game at the end. I think
it's a last minute field goal or last second field
goal to win a game kind of situation. I think
this is one of those spots where Patriots drive late
kick a game winning field goal. They are up twenty
one to twenty, and that's the ballgame. I think that's
(17:44):
kind of where we're going here for this one. So Joe,
that's my take on this one. Plus it also insulates
me that if my Patriots lose at least time, I'm
not completely lost all day.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Yeah, I would say, I do want to ask you
one last follow up with this game. Because it's Patriots Texans,
of course we've got to spend a little bit more
time on this.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Yeah. It's also a really look. I mean, you love defense,
you love this game too. A lot of people didn't
like the Chargers Patriots game. I loved it. I love
big defenses playing hard hitting people. It's a it's a
forgotten brand of football. You don't see the NFL nowadays.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Do you think that Drake may seeing this defense for
the second time. So his first NFL start was against
Demko Ryans last year.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Sure, very different offense, different circumstances.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
But defense, it's still Demiko Ryans, it's still Will Anderson
is still Danielle Hunter. So but do you think that
helps him a little bit? Where it was his first start?
He threw three touchdowns, Kishon Boody had a long touchdown
play burning Derek Stingley got off the line, like you
don't think that they went back, but like.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Oh, I don't think Drake May is afraid of anybody.
And I think the best thing that could have happened
for him too is to come out of the gate
slow in the playoffs, because I think that was a
little bit of a humble check a little bit too.
You know, you've been beating up on the Jets, the
Dolphins the last couple weeks of the season. It's very
different when you go play a team like the Chargers.
They're an eleven win team, They've got a good defense, right,
and they came and they brought it, and Drake May
(19:01):
made the one big play, you know, the big touchdown
throw there at a Hunter Henry and I think at
the end of it, you know, It's funny because that's
the only game that was more than a field goal difference,
and it was the only game that had just one
touchdown in it, so in terms of the difference in
point differentials, kind of odd when you think about how
that game went. Every game was so tight, but the
(19:22):
game with the least amount of touchdowns that it had
the biggest margin of victory. I think that this week
Drake may will have to make plays with his legs.
I think the home field advantage does matter. I think
there are some limitations there. And at the other thing
we're not talking about too.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
C J.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Stroud was seeing a lot of ghosts in Pittsburgh. You're
hit in c J. Stroud like crazy, And I think
that the other the thing that everybody's not talking about
enough is the Patriots defense and the Patriots getting after
the quarterback and the Patriots demolition of poor Justin Herbert
last week. That I think the blueprints right there. The
Steelers gave it to you, and if you could do
that again to ce J Stroud two weeks in a row,
(19:59):
I think you're in a good spot to in this game.
But I do think it's gonna be a one point
kind of contest.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That's my Yeah, bad offensive lines tend to not travel
like we saw with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
That just doesn't work that way.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
And another thing too, is you know who's got some
intel on some of these defensive personnel players. It's Stefon Diggs,
who was on Houston Texans last year.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
That's true.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
So it's funny.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Because I had a lot of time sitting around there because.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
I rewatched that game from last year, which Nico Collins
also did not play in, even though the Texans scored
forty points on the Patriots, and they were also wearing
their red uniform so of course they got blown out
because they were wearing their red throwback jerseys and Diggs
was he was talking smack the Christian Gonzales. He had
a unsports like conduct penalty against Christian Gonzales in that game.
He scored a touchdown, so he was feeling it in
(20:42):
that game. I think that Digs again, he's been quiet
the last kind of second half of the season. Really
hasn't been since that basically the Buffalo matchups where he's
really blown up, but hey, he had those were revenge
spots for him, and this is another revenge spot for
Steffond Diggs against his old team, the Houston Texas. Another
storyline to look at.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
I don't know if I love that matchup though, that's
not the best. More on that on tomorrow show, which
leaves us one more game, the Bears and the Rams.
And you know, I've been sticking up for the Rams
a lot this year. You know, they were my Super
Bowl pick on the NFC side. I thought they were
gonna blow the doors off the Panthers, and they had
(21:20):
the opportunity to put their foot on them and they
let them up off the mat and then it got
real ugly. And you know what, you can't do that
against the Chicago Bears. And the Chicago Bears once again
will be at home, will be in a scenario where
it's gonna be cold, very cold. We're talking single digits
at some point in this game. To me, the Rams
once again are a superior team. They are the better roster,
(21:44):
they have the better coach, they have the better quarterback.
But the Rams just consistently let teams back in time
and time again. And I'm taking the Bears with the
points here, give me the Bears with the three and
a half. I think there's a chance that the Bears
can win this game. These games has got to go
cock guide. One of these underdogs is gonna win. It's
just typically the nature of the beast. We don't get
(22:05):
four home you know, not home teams are four favorites
advancing all the time. And it's funny because Matthew Stafford
is the only remaining quarterback to play in the Super
Bowl of all this bunch too, which is also kind
of interesting when you think about it. So if he
were to get knocked out, that'd be really interesting. We're
gonna get somebody which is got a whole fresh kind
of Super Bowl, which would be fun. I don't know
if that's gonna happen. I think the biggest chance is
(22:27):
for the Rams to lose and somehow find a way
once again to let the Bears hang around. And if
you'll let the Bears hang around, they got this weird magic.
I don't know what it is, but I'm here for it.
I was still confident last week, even a halftime then
I thought the Bears were gonna come back and cover
for me. And not only did they cover, they won.
I think they're gonna cover again with the three and
a half, so give me the Bears. Andrew, I know
(22:47):
you disagree, and you were one hundred percent right. For
the record, Andrew was one hundred percent right about the
Panthers and the Rams last week. So this week you're
on the Rams side. Talk to me why well.
Speaker 2 (22:58):
Because because the carolynin Pan have the Rams number. If
you look at the Rams on the road basically since
twenty twenty three, they are eleven and four against the spread,
twelve and two straight up, they're eleven and two against
the spread as a road favorite against all teams not
named the Carolina Panthers. And similar to how the Panthers
have the Rams number, we know that the Bears have
(23:20):
the Packers number. And I think that we might be
overstating what Chicago could do in this particular matchup because
I think that this Rams team is significantly better than
the green Bay Packers because green Bay has been playing
without their two of their best players, right Michael Parsons
the last two Bears wins against green Bay. He didn't
play in either of those games, and either did Zach
tom one of the packers stud offensive tackles. Once those
(23:40):
guys went down in Week fifteen, the Packers didn't win
again all year, they did not win a single game
after both those guys got hurt in Week fifteen against
the Denver Broncos. So we know how the Bears have
won this year. It has been by turnovers, by leaving
the NFL in turnovers plus twenty two turnover differential, and
by seven fourth core or comebacks in the second half
(24:01):
of games. To me, I'm just like talking this through
and eventually things are going to come to roost.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Here, right, That's what I can tell myself, But then
it never does.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
But when I look at why the Packers specifically, why
couldn't the Packers be the team that shut the shut
out the Bears in the second half of games and
bear and to me is because the Packers couldn't run
the football. Josh Jacobs ran out of gas at the
end of the season. You know who's going to be
able to run all over a Bears defense that has
no linebackers left? The freaking Los Angeles Rams with Blake
(24:31):
korm and Kyra Williams both top three running backs this
season in rushing success rate. So I think that Sean
McVay doesn't look at this matchup as oh, it's got
to be staffer, it's got to be against Caleb Williams. No,
it's I have two wicket efficient running backs that I'm
going to just absolutely pound the crap out of on
the road in cold weather in Chicago. So I'm not
trying to overstate the weather in this game. We saw
(24:52):
the Rams go on the road last year and play
in a snow game against the Eagles and almost win,
So I don't think that they're going to be totally
overmatched here by weather concerns. So again I agree with
you on looking at who's the superior team. It's obviously
the Los Angeles Rams in my opinion, And I think
this is where the clock strikes midnight on this turnover
look for Chicago on the second half comebacks for the
(25:13):
Chicago Bears, because I think that the Los Angeles Rams
are just going to run the crap out of the
ball over the Chicago's Bears defense. They're gonna have no answer.
They're not going to have a Cala Williams won't have
a chance in the fourth quarter to make another comeback
because the Rams are going to play bully ball and
control the football.
Speaker 1 (25:30):
All right, we shall see. You are right. Shouldn't be
Bears just find a way. Sometimes they're just bears. They
just got this weird thing going on, and I know,
and look, I also recognized that it was a very
emotional game for them last week. And sometimes you have
those big emotional wins, it's hard to reinflate the ball,
you know, again, and go out there and play. But
(25:52):
I don't know. The Bears have had a ton of these,
and they keep showing up, and they keep doing this
over and over again. If this was in La maybe
I feel differently. But because of the Chicago too, I
think the weather plays a little factor too. I think
the ramsers is not used to this kind of environment,
and I think it's gonna be a little tough for
them sledding. We'll see, we shall see how it all
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My favorite bet of the week first half Buffalo Bills,
Denver Broncos under twenty three and a half. Broncos have
a great defense, Broncos offense averaging ten point nine points
per game in the first half. I think this first
half is underwhelming. I think the second half is going
to be very entertaining, a very different game in the
(28:01):
second half, but I do think lackluster first half. Andrew Erickson,
what's your best bet of the week from hard Rock Bet?
Speaker 3 (28:07):
I just take yours. Yours is so good. I love
Yours is fantastic. Definitely going to be betting that one
for sure.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
I think you should. I think everybody should that while
I'm giving it out for.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
Me, I'm going to go back to the Los Angeles
Rams just kind of talked about them laying minus three
and a half here on the road against Chicago Bears.
I think that the weather is being overblown. Both teams
have to play in the cold weather. Matthew Stafford last
year went on the road against Philadelphia in snow and
blizzard and they almost came with a win. I think
they can run the football against a Bears defense that
has put more of their linebackers on injured reserve. And
(28:42):
when you're running the ball effectively, I think that you
can control the game and keep it out of Cab
Williams Ham so he won't get a chance to bring
up one of his fourth quarter comebacks. You look at
the Bears very reliant on turnovers this season. They are
nine to zero straight up when they have at least
two turnovers on defense, three and six straight up with
one tier turnover or a few, and two and seven
against the spread. The only teams they've covered when they
(29:03):
actually haven't turned the ball over. You guessed it, the
Green Bay Packers. So I'm going to go with the Rams,
avenging Sean mcvay's best buddy, Matt Lafloor get in the
w again on Sean mcvay's staff, Matt Lafour's brother, Michael Floor.
I think the Rams roll here.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Give me them minus three and a half against the Bears.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Cram it up your cram ho Lafleur. Sorry, just every time.
I just gotta do it every time, all right. Remember
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(29:43):
uh yeah, I gotta tell you this one's kind of tough.
I think the only one that really is there. I mean,
the Texans are in play for sure. That defense is
so good. I'm gonna take the Bears plus one seventy two.
I think that that's the one upset that I just
I keep waiting for the Rams to dominate, and they
just don't. And if you don't and you keep letting
teams hang around, eventually bad things happen. And it's happened
(30:04):
to the Rams a few times here this season, and
I'm pissed off about it. I'm tired of making excuses
from them. And it's gonna be freezing cold in Chicago,
and teams from LA don't always perform very well in
the cold, historically speaking, especially when you got travel different
time zones and things like that. So that's what I'm
putting out there. Two plus. You gotta realize the Rams
have gone from East Coast time to West Coast town
(30:26):
to back to Central like they're all over the place,
you know, and then they got to play at night
game it there's a lot. It's a lot going on
from a standpoint of being locked in, Andrew, if you
had to look for one upset this week, who would
it be for you?
Speaker 2 (30:42):
Well, technically, at the time of this recording on hard
Rock Bet, Buffalo Bills are plus one, so they're technically
that team.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Well no, no, I and I respect that.
Speaker 1 (30:54):
You're I thought that was my first insect, but that
was I rolled my eyes and myself.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
No, No, I totally get that, and I think that
you are being right by not using Buffalo as kind
of a crutch underdog pick, because I think that's what
most people would do. But hey, technically, if they close
this an underdog, they technically would qualify.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
So I'm like you, so I.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
Uh, live fast, baby, let's go. That'll do it for us,
But the story of the game goes on. Don't forget
Saturday four o'clock four fifteen. Actually, to be precise, Scott
bogging myself right here, Bill's broncos for that upset that
Andrew just talked about. That'll do it for us, But
the story of the game goes on for Andrew ericson.
I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, gidz Floor.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Also subscribe to our
Speaker 4 (31:50):
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Prost
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets. It's me Joey P joe P Zapia and
this as BP NFL. We've advanced to the Divisional round
of the NFL playoffs. And Andrew Rickson, the Undertaker and
I are here to help you get your best bets
for the week. And don't forget to download the Betting
Pros app that's smarter, not harder, use the tools, don't
be a tool, and subscribe to our channel here on
(00:23):
YouTube and of course wherever you get your podcasts as well.
Andrew Errickson, we had a pretty entertaining weekend of football.
I hope this week lives up to last week's standard
that we've set. And let's see where you want to
kick things off today with your first bet for Divisional
Round number two for the NFL.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I am taking the Buffalo Bills on the money line
to beat the Denver Broncos on the road. This line
is kind of all over the place. I'm not sure
what we would tell you right now would even be
the line when you look when this is released, Because
it's Bill's plus one to have, it's Bill's minus want
to have, it's the Broncos are favorit, it's the Bills
are favorite. So I'm kind of throwing that all out
the way I know, against the spread, and I'm just
(01:01):
gonna look at the Buffalo Bills as the team is
going to win because Joe, like we saw last week,
when they have the superior quarterback, they end up winning
that game. And I know that you and I both
like the Jacksonville Jaguars last week against Buffalo, and I
think how that game played out, I don't think that
that was like a terrible process play again, it was
a close game, went down to the wire. Jaguars obviously
fell short, but the way Buffalo was able to win
(01:23):
despite James Cook having an underwhelming performance. Look, I just
don't want to keep betting against Josh Allen. If you
look at the quarterbacks that he has lost to in
the postseason, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen's first game in
the playoffs, Patch Mahomes on multiple occasions, and Joe Burrow
every other game he's won. So when he is hands
(01:43):
down the better quarterback in the playoff matchup, the Buffalo
Bills win these postseason games. So I'm going to bet
on Josh Allen against bow Nicks, who I don't think
really took a massive step forward in his second season.
Are we looking at the Denver Broncos number one seed
and painting the picture of oh yeah, Owns really stepped
up in year two. I think that he kind of
regressed a little bit if you look at him during
(02:05):
his last nine games, eight of his last nine games
sub ninety passer rating, and in Week eighteen against a
bunch of backup Chargers players, that offense looked wicked dysfunctional.
So I think the Broncos yes nine and went at
home the season, but just five and five straight up,
or excuse me, five and five against the spread. Never
Brouncas have not been a profitable bet as a favorite
(02:26):
this season. So if the Buffalo Bills closes the underdogs here,
give me Josh Allen as a dog three to zer
against the spread as an underdog this season, and just
similar to Patrick mahomes, hey is Patrick mahomes an underdog
in the postseason until it doesn't You keep betting until
it doesn't work, essentially, And that's how I feel about
Josh Allen, especially if the public again, even last week,
I was betting against him. I was wrong, and I'm done.
(02:48):
I'm done doing that, So give me the bills on
the mining line to beat the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
I think he makes some very coching arguments, and I
even liked that that Massachusetts came out that wicked for
a moment.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Then thank you.
Speaker 1 (02:59):
So there you go. Just clearly been hanging out with
his cousins last weekend watching the Patriots game. It Woosta.
He was hanging out in Woa watching a game, watching
the Pats. Look, I gotta tell you, I think this
game for me. I see lots of different outcomes here.
So instead I'm going to with something I can control.
And Andrew Rickson, do you like to guess what the
average point total for the Denver Broncos is in the
(03:20):
first half of games this year? Maybe you know this,
you're a smart guy, but I figured I would throw
this out at you. Take a guess average.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Considering I think Denver has won most of its games
in the second half and in the fourth quarter, it's
probably gonna be a low number.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
I will say twelve and a half.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
They're tove and a half points lower, Bob oh, No,
like lower than ten?
Speaker 1 (03:42):
No, ten point nine.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Ten point nine, okay, ten point nine.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Which means they had to buy They're coming off a
little flat, right, Typically those teams, even good offense has
come out a little flat after a bye week, right
in the playoffs. It's a long season.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Uh.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
I think that this is the one thing that I
can really controlling this game. I'm gonna take the first
half Buffalo Bills Denver Broncos under twenty three and a
half total. I think that if Denver does what they do,
which is put up their ten spot, and even if
the bronc even if the Bills can, you know, somehow
manage thirteen against that really good defense, I'm still gonna
clear this bar by the hook. So I feel good
(04:20):
about this. I could see this very well being maybe
a seven to seven game at halftime and maybe a
little lackluster. So I'm gonna take the under here on
the twenty three and a half here, I think, uh,
like I said, Denver, as you pointed out, Bo Nicks
has been a fourth quarter coming quarterback. I'm afraid that
he's gonna do that again to the Buffalo Bills because
he's done it to a lot of teams this season.
(04:40):
So I'm just gonna avoid it. I'm gonna chop this
game in half, take what I can control, and then
move on to game number two here, which is the
San Francisco forty nine Ers and the Seattle Seahawks. Andrew
walk us through your favorite bet on this one.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
I am taking the Seattle Seahawks, laying the points at
home minus seven, and I can get into a bunch
of different and trends here. I think this is one
that I like the most. I shared with this with
pat This Morris in our private slack chat. So since
nineteen eighty four, teams with eight plus days of rest
advantage into playoffs against their opponent seven to zero straight up.
(05:13):
In those games, the team with shorter rest has been
held to ten or fewer points in six of those
seven games, while the team with longer rest has scored
twenty or more points in all seven games. This is
not a good matchup for Kyle Shannon and this forty
nine Ers team. We've seen him go up against McDonald's
defense four times already in two seasons, and their offense
(05:34):
has not been productive, scoring on average below twenty points
per game. Last week, I was very much on the
Philadelphia Eagles to destroy the forty nine Ers, and the
minute that Lane Johnson was ruled out, I immediately knew
that I was screwed, and I wish I could take
back everything I said.
Speaker 1 (05:48):
Because you and me both will eat the l on
that one.
Speaker 2 (05:51):
But I don't want to give again. I can't discredit
we were right about the Bears.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
The Bears did it.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
Yeah, no Bears.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
They are sucked in basically for three quarters and ended
up pulling it off as they tend to do. But
the thing that I don't want to overlook with the
forty nine or overstate is, oh, this forty nine Ers defense, right,
It's so it was the Eagles. Okay, this Eagles and
neft offense that has shown at times that they can't
even get a first down in an entire second half
of football. They had the lowest pressure rate of the
(06:22):
season on Jalen Hurts last week, and the Eagles offense
still couldn't get out of their own way. So I
think that game last week was much more about the
Eagles dysfunction and less about oh, this forty nine Ers
gritty defense. This fort Niners defense lost another starter last week.
They don't have anybody left, so I think Eventually the
injuries are going to catch up with them in a
(06:43):
matchup against a team that I think is far superior
on the defensive side of the football. Seattle's Seattle dominated
the forty nine ers just two weeks ago. It was
one of the worst offensive performances of the year for
the San Francisco forty nine Ers, so Seattle much rested.
They're getting Charles crossback, their stud offensive tackle. Seattle's two
to zero against the spread straight up after a bye
week under McDonald, six and three against the spread seven
(07:05):
to two straight up with rest advantage since McDonald took
over as the Seahawks head coach and the forty nine
Ers this is the team that you want to fade
after they win as an underdog one to five against
the spread. As underdog following a win, they failed to
cover the spread sixteen of their last twenty one games
following a win, and Matt Parult dropped this on the
one of the earlier shows on the Betting Pro Show,
Sam Donald thirteen to oh straight up, ten and three
(07:27):
against the spread as a six point plus favorite. In
me the Seattle Seahawks to dominate this game against the
forty nine.
Speaker 1 (07:33):
Ers, I think the Seahawks dominate this game, but I
don't think they cover the spread. And I think those
two things can be true. In all that data that
you laid out there, of those games on the eight
days of rest and all that good stuff, how many
of those teams ended up facing an indivision opponent. I
don't know if you have that information at your fingertips
or not, but to me, it's a little bit of
a familiarity breeds contempt. I think the four Niners know
(07:56):
that they're on borrowed time. I don't think they're under
nearly the sure. I think going and winning against the
Eagles last week was great for them. They lost George Kittle,
like everything should point to exactly what Andrew's talking about,
Which is why I'm gonna go the other way, because
all of the good process all year long has taught
me one thing. If it looks too good to be true,
if it smells too nice, chances are it's rotten and
(08:20):
you open it up, He's just not gonna be right.
And somehow, I don't know if it's a backdoor brock
perty cover, I don't know. If some weird things happen,
I don't think Seattle's in danger of losing this game.
Just like I said last week about the Patriots, I
was uncomfortable with the number, but I never thought the
Patriots would be in danger of losing that football game.
And to be honest with you, watching that game last
Sunday night, I was never worried that the Patriots weren't
(08:42):
gonna find a way to win that football game, or
that the Chargers would find a way to somehow eake
out of w never thought that was gonna happen. But
I think seven's a little much, So I'm gonna go
ahead and take the forty nine ers to cover. I
still like Seattle to win. I'm all for that. And
my other pick in this game here is the under
forty four and a half. And if I get that under,
and that's my pick number three here, it's minus one
(09:04):
of four in a lot of markets. Right now, you
can get it. I do think that San Fran gets
closer to that cover of the seven. Now, Andrew, you
are also for pick number three in on the under,
let's talk about your reasons why.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
Yeah, So this matchup between the Seahogs forty nine Ers
is going We've seen this play out a Lot Division rivals.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
Three of the last four.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Games between these two teams have been three straight unders,
and no game has exceeded thirty seven points. So really
it wasn't until that first matchup when it was the
forty nine ers against McDonald. And we've seen this with
McDonald even during his time with the Baltimore Ravens, where
it does take time for his defense for his players
to understand the scheme right. Even in some of the
earlier days with the Ravens they were getting like lit
(09:45):
up by posing offenses, but then eventually in the second
half they really start to come into form. And we've
seen that all throughout this season of how Seattle's defense
has been. Again looking at the top defense of the
NFL that we all agree that Houston is number one,
but Seattle right on their heels as one of the
best units in the NFL, especially playing at home. Mentioned
this earlier when fading the forty Niners. Shanahan has averaged
(10:06):
eighteen point three points per game in four games against
Mike McDonald since he became the Seahawks head coach. That
is the fewest among sixteen head coaches. Shanahan has faced
at least three times including the playoffs. So yes, Shanahan
pulled out all the tricks last week, has Juwan Jennings
throwing passes the Christian McCaffrey. That's what's gonna take for
the forty Niners to score points in this game, because
I think they're vastly undermanned. You mentioned it. I didn't
(10:28):
even mention this when handicapping this game. But no George Kittle,
this team average is significantly less points per game. For
fewer points scored per game without George Kittle, their yards
per play drops by nearly half a yard. You're taking
one of the most explosive and reliable playmakers. That is
Brock Purdy's guy. And we know George Kittle is a
matchup nightmare, especially against Seattle, who has been had against
(10:49):
tight ends. Yes, we love Jake Tungus. He's a fun guy.
Maybe you can bet the overd on his props. But
is he gonna be the reason why the forty nin
Ers come away with the upset here? Probably not, So
I agree with you that the unders again. To me,
this feels like Seahawks win like thirty to ten. Like
that's kind of how I feel that this game being
a shakeout where they can establish to run a little
bit with Ken Walker and Zach Sharbonne who ran all
(11:09):
over the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
I mean that thirteen to three final score in.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Week eighteen is so fugazi because Seattle dominated that game
up and down the board, and the fort Nites were
lucky to lose by only ten points. So I think
that again to your point, you don't disagree with me
that Seattle dominates, but you think that the score might
just be a little bit.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Yeah, I think it's gonna be like a twenty to
sixteen game where the forty nine ers get a touchdown
late the fourth quarter, but it's already the game's already
out of hands. That's the way, Like I said, it's like,
you're gonna be at one point, it's gonna be twenty
to ten, and you'd be like, oh, you know, then
maybe they try to go for the two or something
like that. It just it just feels very much like
(11:46):
Seattle's and control of this game. But San Fran again
last gasp against the Indivision team, They're not gonna go quietly.
The familiarity again of these teams. Whenever there's familiar teams,
they tend to play each other a little bit tighter.
It's just thing we've learned all year long. Especially. You can't,
you know, you can't overlook these teams that are going
on the road with nothing to lose, and the forty
(12:07):
nine ers have nothing to lose but another game and
go home, and they've lost so much this year. They've
been another or another defense, were offensive player. Let's be honest.
Let's be honest. I mean, by the way, do you
watch that study about the magnetic fields to practice. It's
kind of fascinating. I kind of think we need a
deeper dive there. Let's go. I want it all right
before we get to our next pick here number four
(12:28):
for both of us, don't forget to join our Discord
Bettingpros dot com slash chat. It's free, it's fun. You
can get expert handicap advice and meet some really cool
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Discord Bettingpros dot Com slash chat end don't forget right
here on the channel again on Saturday, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos,
(12:50):
Joe Pisa, Pa Scott Bogman will be here live on
the channel, so ring the belts that goes ding when
you subscribe, join us live here on the YouTube channel
so you can watch in game live betting Bills and Broncos.
Last week was super fun between the Rams and Panthers,
and it's gonna be more fun. So I want you
to hang out with us and watch that football game.
All right, number four on our list here, let's talk
(13:12):
about it. Andrew Erickson Pats Texans. Let's get your take
on this one.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
I'm gonna be at this game, Joe. I'm gonna be now,
I know. I mean, I really was.
Speaker 2 (13:24):
I had to stop myself from looking at the Patriots
record against the spreading games that I've attended. I had
to stop myself from looking at this lest things. One
of these trends. How is honestly that matters to me?
Speaker 1 (13:34):
How is that number is?
Speaker 2 (13:35):
I did go to the game last year. The game
I went to Joe Milton started or he didn't start
playing the game. But the Patriots did win as underdogs in.
Speaker 3 (13:42):
Week eighteen, So.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I am kind of hedging here a little bit here
with the Patriots on the money line. I first looked
at the spread and you're seeing threes, you're seeing three
and a halves, and ultimately, I think that this game
is settled by a field goal. So if I bet
Patriots minus three and I sit through a three hour
game and they win by field goal and I just
get a push, that's not how I want to enjoy
this game, to be totally honest, Like, I want the
(14:08):
Patriots to win obviously, just like you do, Joe as
a Patriots fan. But I also want to be smart
from a waging perspective, So I would not be laying
the points at if it stays at minus three with
New England, just because of how good Houston has been
at covering three and a half this year. So fifteen
of eighteen games the Texans have covered plus three and
a half. That's eighty four percent of the time. So yeah,
(14:32):
I think that Texans can keep this within a field goal,
and I think that would be the sharp play to
play the spread. But I like going with the Patriots
online in the game total going under forty nine and
a half points. So if you combine those two, you
get minus one oh five odds, which is the same
as basically taking the Patriots against the spread, and we know, Joe,
I don't need to sell the listeners on oh well
you should bet that under on a Texans game, right.
(14:52):
I don't think that that really needs a lot of
data back behind it, but because I like providing it.
If you look at the Texans only four games they've
played this year, I have scone over fifty total points,
and then you're also taking Nico Collins out of the
lineup here, So.
Speaker 1 (15:08):
Yeah, Collins injury is huge. That's a big beast missing
for that explosive. It's not look Christian yek category game.
Jaydan Higgins is capable, but they're not Nico Collins at
this point, I would agree. So that's kind of my
take on the game. I do want to talk about
a little bit why I think the Patriots can win
this game Specifically, I think that this is probably one
of the tougher ones of the divisional weekend where you're seeing
(15:30):
two really good teams going head to head, and how
good the Houston Texans defense. I think that the line
is actually over counting the loss of Nico Collins because
if you look at this Texans win streak, how many
of these games you're going to credit, Oh, well, they
won because they had Nico Collins, I would say, like,
none of these games, it's all about their They were
winning with Davis Mills as their quarterback.
Speaker 3 (15:51):
Of their defense.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
So these lines, Joe, I looked at it before Wild
Card we get kicked off. Patriots were favored by minus
one and a half points, so they were really close favorites,
and the line has obviously expanded. I think it's because
of the Collins injury, but I don't think that's right,
because the defense is the only reason you should betting
on the Houston Texans, like you should really like not
care about, Oh it's c J.
Speaker 3 (16:12):
Stroud, Like he's zero and two.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
On the road as a road underdog in the playoffs,
those are the things that I would be looking at
Houston as a road underdog four and seven straight up,
six and five against the spread. So I think that again,
going back to if you have to pick against the spread,
Houston plus three and a half is the line that
I would take it out. That's someone that you like
as well, so I'll kind of throw it to you here.
I would say, though, with the Patriots that and just
lock the last point here why I think they can
(16:34):
win is the Texans defense one of their biggest weaknesses
is against mobile quarterbacks. They rank thirty second against quarterbacks
scrambles this season.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
And I can't get out.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Of my mind Riley Leonard, a seventh round rookie quarterback
for the Colts and lighting this defense up in the
first half of Week eighteen when they were playing.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Their starters, And what does Riley Leonard have? Mobility?
Speaker 2 (16:55):
So I think that's going to play a big factor
of that we're going to talk about. We're going to
talk about Drake May and his rushing yards on the
Player Prop show.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
That's right, you got to watch that show too. It's
why I subscribe to the channel. But yeah, I mean
watching Aaron Rodgers stand in that pocket and take hit
after a hit, that's not going to be Drake May.
And look, he faced a good defense last week and
the Chargers give him credit, and they rushed the quarterback
and they got after him. But Drake May is able
to escape Drake May and make plays with his legs.
So neither Houston has to change a little bit of
what they do or be prepared for Drake May to
(17:22):
run the ragget a little bit, because Drake May will
do that to them. And I think that's the difference
of this game. But I am on the textan side
of this game with the plus three because I think
it's a one point game at the end. I think
it's a last minute field goal or last second field
goal to win a game kind of situation. I think
this is one of those spots where Patriots drive late
kick a game winning field goal. They are up twenty
one to twenty, and that's the ballgame. I think that's
(17:44):
kind of where we're going here for this one. So Joe,
that's my take on this one. Plus it also insulates
me that if my Patriots lose at least time, I'm
not completely lost all day.
Speaker 2 (17:53):
Yeah, I would say, I do want to ask you
one last follow up with this game. Because it's Patriots Texans,
of course we've got to spend a little bit more
time on this.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
Yeah. It's also a really look. I mean, you love defense,
you love this game too. A lot of people didn't
like the Chargers Patriots game. I loved it. I love
big defenses playing hard hitting people. It's a it's a
forgotten brand of football. You don't see the NFL nowadays.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
Do you think that Drake may seeing this defense for
the second time. So his first NFL start was against
Demko Ryans last year.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Sure, very different offense, different circumstances.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
But defense, it's still Demiko Ryans, it's still Will Anderson
is still Danielle Hunter. So but do you think that
helps him a little bit? Where it was his first start?
He threw three touchdowns, Kishon Boody had a long touchdown
play burning Derek Stingley got off the line, like you
don't think that they went back, but like.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
Oh, I don't think Drake May is afraid of anybody.
And I think the best thing that could have happened
for him too is to come out of the gate
slow in the playoffs, because I think that was a
little bit of a humble check a little bit too.
You know, you've been beating up on the Jets, the
Dolphins the last couple weeks of the season. It's very
different when you go play a team like the Chargers.
They're an eleven win team, They've got a good defense, right,
and they came and they brought it, and Drake May
(19:01):
made the one big play, you know, the big touchdown
throw there at a Hunter Henry and I think at
the end of it, you know, It's funny because that's
the only game that was more than a field goal difference,
and it was the only game that had just one
touchdown in it, so in terms of the difference in
point differentials, kind of odd when you think about how
that game went. Every game was so tight, but the
(19:22):
game with the least amount of touchdowns that it had
the biggest margin of victory. I think that this week
Drake may will have to make plays with his legs.
I think the home field advantage does matter. I think
there are some limitations there. And at the other thing
we're not talking about too.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
C J.
Speaker 1 (19:37):
Stroud was seeing a lot of ghosts in Pittsburgh. You're
hit in c J. Stroud like crazy, And I think
that the other the thing that everybody's not talking about
enough is the Patriots defense and the Patriots getting after
the quarterback and the Patriots demolition of poor Justin Herbert
last week. That I think the blueprints right there. The
Steelers gave it to you, and if you could do
that again to ce J Stroud two weeks in a row,
(19:59):
I think you're in a good spot to in this game.
But I do think it's gonna be a one point
kind of contest.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
That's my Yeah, bad offensive lines tend to not travel
like we saw with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
That just doesn't work that way.
Speaker 2 (20:09):
And another thing too, is you know who's got some
intel on some of these defensive personnel players. It's Stefon Diggs,
who was on Houston Texans last year.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
That's true.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
So it's funny.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
Because I had a lot of time sitting around there because.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
I rewatched that game from last year, which Nico Collins
also did not play in, even though the Texans scored
forty points on the Patriots, and they were also wearing
their red uniform so of course they got blown out
because they were wearing their red throwback jerseys and Diggs
was he was talking smack the Christian Gonzales. He had
a unsports like conduct penalty against Christian Gonzales in that game.
He scored a touchdown, so he was feeling it in
(20:42):
that game. I think that Digs again, he's been quiet
the last kind of second half of the season. Really
hasn't been since that basically the Buffalo matchups where he's
really blown up, but hey, he had those were revenge
spots for him, and this is another revenge spot for
Steffond Diggs against his old team, the Houston Texas. Another
storyline to look at.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
I don't know if I love that matchup though, that's
not the best. More on that on tomorrow show, which
leaves us one more game, the Bears and the Rams.
And you know, I've been sticking up for the Rams
a lot this year. You know, they were my Super
Bowl pick on the NFC side. I thought they were
gonna blow the doors off the Panthers, and they had
(21:20):
the opportunity to put their foot on them and they
let them up off the mat and then it got
real ugly. And you know what, you can't do that
against the Chicago Bears. And the Chicago Bears once again
will be at home, will be in a scenario where
it's gonna be cold, very cold. We're talking single digits
at some point in this game. To me, the Rams
once again are a superior team. They are the better roster,
(21:44):
they have the better coach, they have the better quarterback.
But the Rams just consistently let teams back in time
and time again. And I'm taking the Bears with the
points here, give me the Bears with the three and
a half. I think there's a chance that the Bears
can win this game. These games has got to go
cock guide. One of these underdogs is gonna win. It's
just typically the nature of the beast. We don't get
(22:05):
four home you know, not home teams are four favorites
advancing all the time. And it's funny because Matthew Stafford
is the only remaining quarterback to play in the Super
Bowl of all this bunch too, which is also kind
of interesting when you think about it. So if he
were to get knocked out, that'd be really interesting. We're
gonna get somebody which is got a whole fresh kind
of Super Bowl, which would be fun. I don't know
if that's gonna happen. I think the biggest chance is
(22:27):
for the Rams to lose and somehow find a way
once again to let the Bears hang around. And if
you'll let the Bears hang around, they got this weird magic.
I don't know what it is, but I'm here for it.
I was still confident last week, even a halftime then
I thought the Bears were gonna come back and cover
for me. And not only did they cover, they won.
I think they're gonna cover again with the three and
a half, so give me the Bears. Andrew, I know
(22:47):
you disagree, and you were one hundred percent right. For
the record, Andrew was one hundred percent right about the
Panthers and the Rams last week. So this week you're
on the Rams side. Talk to me why well.
Speaker 2 (22:58):
Because because the carolynin Pan have the Rams number. If
you look at the Rams on the road basically since
twenty twenty three, they are eleven and four against the spread,
twelve and two straight up, they're eleven and two against
the spread as a road favorite against all teams not
named the Carolina Panthers. And similar to how the Panthers
have the Rams number, we know that the Bears have
(23:20):
the Packers number. And I think that we might be
overstating what Chicago could do in this particular matchup because
I think that this Rams team is significantly better than
the green Bay Packers because green Bay has been playing
without their two of their best players, right Michael Parsons
the last two Bears wins against green Bay. He didn't
play in either of those games, and either did Zach
tom one of the packers stud offensive tackles. Once those
(23:40):
guys went down in Week fifteen, the Packers didn't win
again all year, they did not win a single game
after both those guys got hurt in Week fifteen against
the Denver Broncos. So we know how the Bears have
won this year. It has been by turnovers, by leaving
the NFL in turnovers plus twenty two turnover differential, and
by seven fourth core or comebacks in the second half
(24:01):
of games. To me, I'm just like talking this through
and eventually things are going to come to roost.
Speaker 1 (24:06):
Here, right, That's what I can tell myself, But then
it never does.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
But when I look at why the Packers specifically, why
couldn't the Packers be the team that shut the shut
out the Bears in the second half of games and
bear and to me is because the Packers couldn't run
the football. Josh Jacobs ran out of gas at the
end of the season. You know who's going to be
able to run all over a Bears defense that has
no linebackers left? The freaking Los Angeles Rams with Blake
(24:31):
korm and Kyra Williams both top three running backs this
season in rushing success rate. So I think that Sean
McVay doesn't look at this matchup as oh, it's got
to be staffer, it's got to be against Caleb Williams. No,
it's I have two wicket efficient running backs that I'm
going to just absolutely pound the crap out of on
the road in cold weather in Chicago. So I'm not
trying to overstate the weather in this game. We saw
(24:52):
the Rams go on the road last year and play
in a snow game against the Eagles and almost win,
So I don't think that they're going to be totally
overmatched here by weather concerns. So again I agree with
you on looking at who's the superior team. It's obviously
the Los Angeles Rams in my opinion, And I think
this is where the clock strikes midnight on this turnover
look for Chicago on the second half comebacks for the
(25:13):
Chicago Bears, because I think that the Los Angeles Rams
are just going to run the crap out of the
ball over the Chicago's Bears defense. They're gonna have no answer.
They're not going to have a Cala Williams won't have
a chance in the fourth quarter to make another comeback
because the Rams are going to play bully ball and
control the football.
Speaker 1 (25:30):
All right, we shall see. You are right. Shouldn't be
Bears just find a way. Sometimes they're just bears. They
just got this weird thing going on, and I know,
and look, I also recognized that it was a very
emotional game for them last week. And sometimes you have
those big emotional wins, it's hard to reinflate the ball,
you know, again, and go out there and play. But
(25:52):
I don't know. The Bears have had a ton of these,
and they keep showing up, and they keep doing this
over and over again. If this was in La maybe
I feel differently. But because of the Chicago too, I
think the weather plays a little factor too. I think
the ramsers is not used to this kind of environment,
and I think it's gonna be a little tough for
them sledding. We'll see, we shall see how it all
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My favorite bet of the week first half Buffalo Bills,
Denver Broncos under twenty three and a half. Broncos have
a great defense, Broncos offense averaging ten point nine points
per game in the first half. I think this first
half is underwhelming. I think the second half is going
to be very entertaining, a very different game in the
(28:01):
second half, but I do think lackluster first half. Andrew Erickson,
what's your best bet of the week from hard Rock Bet?
Speaker 3 (28:07):
I just take yours. Yours is so good. I love
Yours is fantastic. Definitely going to be betting that one
for sure.
Speaker 1 (28:15):
I think you should. I think everybody should that while
I'm giving it out for.
Speaker 2 (28:19):
Me, I'm going to go back to the Los Angeles
Rams just kind of talked about them laying minus three
and a half here on the road against Chicago Bears.
I think that the weather is being overblown. Both teams
have to play in the cold weather. Matthew Stafford last
year went on the road against Philadelphia in snow and
blizzard and they almost came with a win. I think
they can run the football against a Bears defense that
has put more of their linebackers on injured reserve. And
(28:42):
when you're running the ball effectively, I think that you
can control the game and keep it out of Cab
Williams Ham so he won't get a chance to bring
up one of his fourth quarter comebacks. You look at
the Bears very reliant on turnovers this season. They are
nine to zero straight up when they have at least
two turnovers on defense, three and six straight up with
one tier turnover or a few, and two and seven
against the spread. The only teams they've covered when they
(29:03):
actually haven't turned the ball over. You guessed it, the
Green Bay Packers. So I'm going to go with the Rams,
avenging Sean mcvay's best buddy, Matt Lafloor get in the
w again on Sean mcvay's staff, Matt Lafour's brother, Michael Floor.
I think the Rams roll here.
Speaker 3 (29:18):
Give me them minus three and a half against the Bears.
Speaker 1 (29:21):
Cram it up your cram ho Lafleur. Sorry, just every time.
I just gotta do it every time, all right. Remember
you put these two bets together too. You also get
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for the best bets. So make sure you download hard
Rock Bet and bet it today and again, don't forget
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bets when you do only at hard Rock Bet. Which
brings us to the Upsets special of the week. And
(29:43):
uh yeah, I gotta tell you this one's kind of tough.
I think the only one that really is there. I mean,
the Texans are in play for sure. That defense is
so good. I'm gonna take the Bears plus one seventy two.
I think that that's the one upset that I just
I keep waiting for the Rams to dominate, and they
just don't. And if you don't and you keep letting
teams hang around, eventually bad things happen. And it's happened
(30:04):
to the Rams a few times here this season, and
I'm pissed off about it. I'm tired of making excuses
from them. And it's gonna be freezing cold in Chicago,
and teams from LA don't always perform very well in
the cold, historically speaking, especially when you got travel different
time zones and things like that. So that's what I'm
putting out there. Two plus. You gotta realize the Rams
have gone from East Coast time to West Coast town
(30:26):
to back to Central like they're all over the place,
you know, and then they got to play at night
game it there's a lot. It's a lot going on
from a standpoint of being locked in, Andrew, if you
had to look for one upset this week, who would
it be for you?
Speaker 2 (30:42):
Well, technically, at the time of this recording on hard
Rock Bet, Buffalo Bills are plus one, so they're technically
that team.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
Well no, no, I and I respect that.
Speaker 1 (30:54):
You're I thought that was my first insect, but that
was I rolled my eyes and myself.
Speaker 2 (30:59):
No, No, I totally get that, and I think that
you are being right by not using Buffalo as kind
of a crutch underdog pick, because I think that's what
most people would do. But hey, technically, if they close
this an underdog, they technically would qualify.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
So I'm like you, so I.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
Uh, live fast, baby, let's go. That'll do it for us,
But the story of the game goes on. Don't forget
Saturday four o'clock four fifteen. Actually, to be precise, Scott
bogging myself right here, Bill's broncos for that upset that
Andrew just talked about. That'll do it for us, But
the story of the game goes on for Andrew ericson.
I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, gidz Floor.
Speaker 4 (31:36):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Also subscribe to our
Speaker 4 (31:50):
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Prost
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