January 16, 2026 • 31 mins
Join Seth Woolcock and Scott Bogman as they present their betting guide for the CFB National Championship between the Miami Hurricanes and the Indiana Hoosiers!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Miami Hurricanes vs. Indiana Hoosiers - 0:00:30
BettingPros Discord - 0:05:30
Early Line Movement and Trends - 0:06:10
Final Score Predictions - 0:17:01
Favorite Prop Bets - 0:18:48
Same Game Parlay - 0:25:48
Hard Rock Bets Best Bet of The Week - 0:27:58
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football show.
The train lets off here in South Beach as it's
our final show of the season where we'll give you
our official picks and predictions for the college football National
Championship Games. One hundred and thirty six teams began the
year with dreams of hoisting the Crystal football, but in
the end, only the number one and undefeated Indiana Hoosiers
(00:25):
and the number ten Miami Hurricanes are left standing for
what should be an absolute banger of a game in
Higher Rock Stadium on Monday night. I'm hero Seth Willcock,
joined by the birthday Boy himself, Scott Boggin, Bogg's happy
birthday brother, And I said this last year to end
it that, you know, I thought my fandom, my just
overall knowledge of college football ten x last year during
(00:48):
the show since we started, well, I think it's safe
to say at ten x once again meaning I love
college football and no one hundred times more about this
game than I did when we first jumped on the
mics all the way back in August twenty twenty four.
And thanks for all the hard work over that time,
my friend.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Hey, and thank you Seth. It's been a great season, man.
We've had a great time here breaking down some college football.
And I think you learn a little bit every single year.
You know, every year you dive a little deeper, you
know more, And there's a lot to learn these days
because the teams are pretty brand new every single year. Right,
there's a lot of movement with the players. You never
(01:24):
know how guys are gonna gel. But what a fantastic year.
I can't believe that, you know, Indiana of all that
it's gonna be pretty great if Indiana wins before Notre
Dame wins Anati right, like ye, the state of Indiana
would never have bet on that. So very interesting the
(01:44):
way that this year has broken out. And you know,
we knew that Signetty was a good coach after last year.
We knew that Indiana is probably gonna be solid again.
Nobody had him here, so Miami was a pretty popular pick.
Good team, experienced quarterback. I don't think many people had
them here, but it was probably a little bit more
than Indiana because the ACC seemed like an easy walk through.
(02:06):
They weren't even in the ACC title game and here
we are in the Natty. So you know, this is
it's an incredible run. Disappointment from my Longhorns, disappointment for
your nitty Lions because that's the that's the natty we wanted.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Yeah, but of course, uh, it's not the way it
goes in.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Incredible year, a lot of a lot of learning, like
you said, caught fire at the end, which was nice.
But I feel like bold season's been pretty even for me.
But I do have a pretty good feel on this game.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
I agree, been a very you know, five hundred, a
little bit above five hundred round was tracking the units
for the postseason definitely better than the regular season for me. Yeah,
I can tell you that for sure.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
And well, we finally know stuff about these teams and
then they go away.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
For yes, six years, so yeah, absolutely, And it's it's
one of those things, Bogs that at least we had
Week one when your Texas Longhorns were ranked one. My
Penn State nitty line for ranked too, so we'll always
have that in our back pocket. And dude, just like
how much the landscape has changed over these last couple
of seasons, with the coaches moving back and forth, all
(03:10):
the new changes, with the nil and now teams actually
being physically able to have you know, their own money
to get dedicate towards players and their you know, let's
just call them salaries at this point, because that's really
what they are, marketing deals if you if you.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Want to wild west, it is.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
It is. And there's so much screwed up in this
sport right now, whether it's the calendar, whether it is
you know, the players kind of getting taken advantage of
buy some of these agents or quote unquote agents that
you know, there's a lot that needs to change, But
as far as the betting on the games go, it
doesn't get any better.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
The on field product is it's still great. Yeah, And
that's the thing.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Like there's a lot of complaining about the external things
and the way things work and the transfer portal.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
Yeah, the coaching and all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
And I understand that, but that stuff is not ruining
college football. There's people that say that continuously and repeatedly
and loudly into microphones, that oh, this is ruining college sports.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
It's not.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
College sports are still fine, right. The way they're done
is different. I know we don't like change.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
But as Brad Pitt said in Moneyball, right, adapt or
Die and Signetti. You never heard him complain about the
transfer portal. No ever, he just uses, he takes advantage
of it. He just says, this has changed. I need
to adapt if he adapted, so, I think you see
guys like Jeff Hafley leaving Boston College because they don't
want to deal with the NIL and the recruiting and
(04:36):
all that stuff, which is fine. You know your job
has become way harder, but I'm not going to feel
bad for any head coaches. They have to, you know,
work a little harder to get their guys. I understand
it's harder, but y'all are getting paid a lot, do
your job.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Well, and honestly, like the onfield product has never been
better because some of those transfer quarterbacks are coming in right.
I mean, look at the SEMIS. We had four teams
with all transfer quarterbacks who would have not been on
these teams AFLs before the transfer portal era. So it's
been great. I'm very happy to break it down with
you one more time, and before we get to the
nitty gritty one final time, huge shout to everyone who's
(05:10):
ridden alongside us all season long, either on the Bank
pros YouTube channel or the audio feed. We thank you
for all the sport, through all the hits and the misses,
and as always, please just do a quick favor for us.
Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this
type of concept. Also, you know I'm about to say,
subscribe to the channel if you're new, so you don't
miss a moment of football betting coverage in twenty twenty six. Also,
(05:31):
if you're looking to up your game in sports betting today,
go ahead and join our exclusive sports betting discord community
at bettingpros dot com slash chat. Not only can you
connect with some expert handicappers who provide free picks for
the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, college football player props, live betting,
and more, but now you can also participate in our
(05:52):
weekly community picks, cast your vote, see how your pick
stack up against the experts, and track your success. And
let's go ahead, and let's fired up. From the number
ten Miami Hurricanes travel to their home stadium right down
the road to face the number one Indiana Hoosiers in
the College Football National Championship Game, kicking off Monday, January
nineteenth at seven thirty pm Eastern Time at hard Rock
(06:15):
Stadium in South Beach. This line originally opened at Indiana
minus seven and a half everywhere. This has now been
bought up a point to minus eight and a half.
I you now minus three thirty five on the money
line Miami plus two sixty five to win outright. The
total has been bought down as well, a point to
forty seven and a half points Indiana. On the injuries,
(06:36):
nothing to report since our Early Lines episode. Edge Stephen
Dally he'll remain out of this one after being injured
while celebrating that Big Ten Championship game, and we did
hear the edge mcal kamara and everyone else who played
in the Semis is good to go for the Hoosiers.
According to Kurt Signetti, Miami on their injury front, their
defensive tackle and run stuff for Amad Moten Junior, and
(06:58):
their edge a key Messador plus the cornerback OJ Frederique,
they are all good to go. Cornerback Demarti Brown he
remains day to day. Starting tight end Elijah Lofton also
popped up on the injury report this week as questionable.
Their defensive lineman Donta Simpson, he hit the portal earlier
this week. He's head to Missou. Many players are also
(07:18):
continued to recover from that flu. The more I dug
into this box, the more it seemed to be a
last week type of issue, that this was actually something
that bothered Mark Fletcher and company going into the Fiesta Bowl.
So we're hoping by Monday most people are cleared up
and that they're one hundred percent to go. With those
immune systems. We're young, you know, we can fight off
a little fluing here and there at that age. I
(07:39):
hope BP projections have Indiana by over ten points, the
total over closer to fifty five and a half points.
For the public betting trends right now, we have seventy
six percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash
on IU. That has come down since earlier this year.
This week, folks, also eighty six percent of the tickets,
seventy six percent of the cash is on the over still,
(07:59):
but that has also come down. Bogs. Earlier this week,
you were leaning towards Indiana and the points at that
time seven and a half and also the under at
forty eight and a half. Are you still there despite
the line movement we've been seeing.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Yeah, I just can't get away from it. It's not
my favorite bit of the year. And I feel like
if there were multiple games this week, this would be
pretty low on the total poll of me, you know,
taking Indiana here. You know, the more we dive in,
the more and more. I'm just convinced that Indiana is
just the best team by a decent stretch here. So
maybe not, And that's not sure. It's definitely not what
(08:35):
has been said on podcasts or articles or any prognostication.
I feel like throughout the week has been Look, this
game is going to be closer, which that's.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
What I said on Monday.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
That's exactly what I said on Monday is I do
think that this game is going to be closer. And
we give it credit for right because we saw Orgon
dominate or we saw Indiana dominate organ right the pick
six to start, just every mistake they made, they were taking.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Advantage of Hawns.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Yeah, and we should have seen that from Miami because
Old miss made massive Mistakesdada Shambliss had three turnover whethy plays.
I think only one of them ended up going the
other way. They dropped bounce interceptions right that got tipped
at the line. So Miami missed their opportunities to walk
away with that game. And I think that is the
(09:24):
main difference. I think both these rosters are pretty equal.
I would give the edge slightly towards Indiana because of
the quarterback between him, between Mendoza and Becket's definitely Mendoza
by a pretty significant margin to me. But man beck
has done a great job this year. I'm not turning
the ball over. I'm not having those crazy bounce plays,
(09:47):
which had been the bugaboo in that was his Georgia career.
That was his issue was massive moments eat him alive.
He's come alive in the big moments this year. So again,
I think this is going to be closer. But the
thing that Indiana does is they capitalize on mistakes and
they don't give you mistakes. Right, That's the thing. Mendoza
(10:09):
will take a sack, but he'll take a sack so
that he doesn't put the ball in harms way, right.
They just tend to not make mistakes. Specifically on defense.
We saw Kiwan Lacey break that big run, and I
think we saw Craver have a fifty nine yarder against Miami.
We saw Jeremiah Smith have a fifty nine yard touchdown
(10:31):
against Miami. So I think the big play goes the
way of Indiana, and I think that's the difference in
this game still, right, I think it's gonna be low scoring.
I know the cash and tickets are on the over.
I mean Miami is I think twenty seven is the
most points that they've given up this year, and that
was last week. It's Ole miss, right, So yeah, they
(10:53):
gave up twenty six to SMU when they lost that,
and that was an overtime. They gave up twenty two
at Florida State. They give up twenty four in the
loss to Louisville. But twenty seven points last week is
the most that anyone scored against Miami all year long.
So I do respect Indiana's offense. I think they're gonna
be good, but I don't think they're gonna have the
(11:14):
wild success that they had against Oregon. I don't think
they're gonna be running the ball completely down their throat
like they did against Alabama either. I don't think they're
gonna be able to stop this team like they stopped
Alabama either. Miami's offense has been humming recently, specifically with
the run game, but I think that's the issue, right
is running into the teeth of that defense for Miami Hurricanes.
(11:35):
Can Mark Fletcher hit his yardage prop Yeah, is that
gonna be the difference in the game. I don't think
it will be. So I think this is a tight
game pretty close to the end, and I think Indiana
scores late to cover. So I'm gonna go with the
Hoosiers twenty eight seventeen as my final score here in
the Natty.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
I'm glad you laid out that scenario because I also
think that is how this game could go. But I
also think there's a whole second door that I want
to open as well, because earlier this week I touched
on how you have to really play the perfect game
to beat IU right. First and turnover margin one point
four per game. Fifth and penalties very well coached three
point seven of those per games. Six and time possession
and sacks per game. Also third and explosive plays. Miami
(12:19):
is worse than I you in most of those categories,
but still very respectful except penalties. That's one thing I
think catches up with them in this game. Also, the
Hoosiers have won their two college football playoff games bugs
by combining sixty nine points, and that is against blue
bloods like Alabama, like Organ. If I told you that
a year ago, even six months ago, I don't think
you would believe me.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
You know, your video game pal, Yeah, that's what everybody
would have say.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
You think I'm running a dynasty out here. In NCAA
twenty six or something, Miami, they won its three games
by an after twenty one points, so still winning by
an average of a touchdown. But in addition to playing
a cleaner game, one of these teams also as a
Sunday ready quarterback. The other team does not. Right PFF
ranks I first in receiving grade, second in passing grade.
Miami's worst aspect of their entire team. In my opinion,
(13:06):
I love the trenches on offense. I love the trenches
on defense. The skill players have all showed up here
down the stretch. It's still that cornerback room, right, It's
that secondary outside of their nickelback Kyante Scott, who's an
absolute dog out there. Their passing defense is ranked forty fifth,
So I think playing at a bottom ten clip in pace,
playing at a offensive rate where your thirtieth in scoring
(13:30):
does not help Miami. That where let's just put this
scenario out there, Bogs. If Miami gets the kickoff Indiana
to first, they go three and out, Ayu gets the ball,
they go down, score a touchdown. Immediately, You're never gonna
see in my opinion, I think a single digit spread
spread number in this game again, and immediately Miami starts
to get tight, right And what happens though, if that
(13:51):
happens in the second time, Let's say they even get
one or two first downs, ball goes back to Indiana.
Indiana goes back, drives down the field, I think there's
a chance this game is over by the midway through
the second quarter, maybe first quarter, Like that is a possibility,
because I just don't think they have the horses to
come back. Of course, that might not happen, but it
feels like Miami tickets could be dead early whole I
(14:12):
U tickets. I'm never going to feel like they are dead,
no matter the circumstance, because I have a guy like
Fernando Mendoza, like also on players like Sarah, like Omar
Cooper Junior, like these great running backs in Henby and
Black who can go down the field and make these plays.
So I really feel good about this, I'm gonna back Mendoza,
who in my opinion, has been the best player in
(14:33):
college football and will be the number one overall pick
in the NFL draft as well. I just think that
second door is very much open, and that is why
I cannot bet Miami in this game, because I think
that ticket is washed up by halftime. If I'm betting Miami,
I'm doing it live.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
In my opinion, I do think that Miami has the
horses to come back, right, Okay, I do think they
have because Malachai TONI right, like when you're like that
on your shream, he kind of opens up everything on
your as well. So if you get down quickly, I
do think that Miami has the horses to come back,
but I don't want them in that position, right. You
don't want Carson back facing pressure for the majority of
(15:10):
the game because that's when he's going to hurry up
his feet and make that mistake that he's avoided for
most of the season. So I think that while Miami
does have the ability to come back, if they do
get down early, it's not the position you want to
be in at any point in this game, and it
really puts you behind the eight ball. If you are
down very quickly, if it happens like that, or if
(15:32):
a pick six to start the game like happening, it's
Oregon and then it's just a down hill drubbing from that.
And to Oregon's credit, they answered back real quick. They
came back, they scored, they got right back in it.
But then they couldn't stop Indiana at all. You know,
the ball barely hit the ground when Mendoza was throwing it,
so you know, in this defense is very strong. And
(15:54):
the one the few games that Indiana has had issues,
it's been against a good pass rush. Iowa, Penn State,
Ohio State, right like, these are the times where they
did have issues against the good pass rush. And we
even mentioned against Texas Tech that Oregon's pass rush was
you know, below where everything else was on their fight.
So in Alabama had a bad pass rush the entire
(16:16):
season as well. So you see these drubbing games and
you go, well, what is that. That's why I think
it is is because they don't put any pressure on Mendoza.
Mendoza is gonna face pressure in this game. He's gonna
get hit, he's gonna get rocked a couple times too.
But We've seen him answer the call every single time.
He's gotten up off the mat and made the plays
when necessary. And I think, you know, the thing on
(16:39):
defense from Miami for me is the tackling, and that's
you saw Kewe Lacey go into the end zone untouched
right just in some bad spots. They opened themselves up
to some massive plays. And the thing for Indiana is
they have such a good team. They spread the ball
round so much you don't know who is going to
make that big play, and they don't care who makes it.
Someone going to make it, So just answer the call
(17:02):
when you're called upon, and that's what all the Hoosiers do.
So yeah, I'm gonna have to keep rolling with the Hoosiers.
I got a twenty eight to seventeen. Where you going
with this final score?
Speaker 1 (17:11):
For me? I am going with Indiana thirty one Miami
twenty So kind of in that same same vein as you.
I think it's a little bit of h No, I'm
gonna call it drubbing, But I think Indiana gets out
and I think they you know, keep their foot on
the gas and Miami has to play a little catch
up in here.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
That's over.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Would you say you're confident on the over or would
you say you're I want nothing to.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Do with this total I want nothing because I could
really see because these are both two good defenses, so
my mind wants to tell me, hey, take the under here, right,
But at the same time.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
These Miami was just really EFFI man that that game
plan against Old Miss was not complicated, right. Ole Miss
just could not tackle Malachai TONI. Yeah, they could match
up with the blocking. Indiana's gonna be able to tackle that. Yeah,
Indiana doesn't make those those mistakes, so uh yeah, it's
it's gonna be tough for Miami to make headways. Specifically,
(18:03):
if they get down, they have the horses to do it,
but you do not want to get behind against the Hoosiers.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Yep, I'm completely in line with you. A random question,
but better true freshman season Jeremiah Smith in twenty twenty
four or Malachi Tony in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
It is still Jeremiah Smith, but I think it.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Might be Tony. I think it might be Tony because
he is less around him. He is less around him,
and he's like he really has been the whole offense.
Last year they had a Mecca BUCA. They still had Tate,
they still had every better running backs.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
Is touch kissed by gold JSN, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Junior.
They've had an incredible just lost a couple of wide
factory Yeah, Brian.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Hartline's departure meaning something there. So bo, let's go ahead, though,
Let's jump forward and let's get to our top prop
bets where you have an absolute spread for us today.
You have three anytime touchdowns. Let's start there before we
get to the player over unders.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
All right, so the three touchdowns I'm gonna give you,
And these are hard to figure out at Indiana, right,
but we think Indiana is gonna score. I got him
for four touchdowns. You have them for four touchdowns as well.
So I'm gonna say Elijah Suratt, he just leads them
with fifteen receiving touchdowns this year. God, this guy is
just always open, I feel like. So I think he
scores in Kaylen Black as well scored twice last week.
(19:25):
They're using them more by the goal line than they
use him be at the goal line. So those two guys,
I think in particular. Plus we'll talk about this a
little bit later, but I think if you do get
that breakaway play, it's gonna be from Kaylen Black. And
then for Miami, let's put Malachai Toni on there because
like you and I both think this team is gonna
be losing late, they're gonna be throwing a lot in
the third and fourth country quarter. Who in the country
(19:48):
is more likely to take one, do one, wiggle and
take it to the house is Malachay Tony.
Speaker 3 (19:53):
Dude.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
This dude has been incredible the whole year. They're setting
up screens for him, which I don't like them to run.
They ran it too much against All Miss, so it
kind of has to come off the plate a little
bit for this game against Indiana. But they're gonna run
a couple screens for him and if he can slip
one tackle, he could get in the end zone pretty easily.
So those are my three touchdown calls to start.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Okay, I love that Sarah has been absolute clinic as
of lately. And Tony he's just so slippery man, and
he can do it all right. You think he's a
guy who needs manufactured touches, He's not, right. He's someone
who can also. I mean there are multiple times in
that Old Miss game too, where he was beating the
reps deep and Carson Beck was missing him or not
seeing him. So I love all those touchdown plays. Bogs,
(20:34):
go ahead and hit us with your four over unders
that you have in the player prop market, two of
which are locking in on the Heisman Trophy winner.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Yeah, let's go the first one for Nandel Mendoz over
sixteen and a half ass completions, and I think it's
likely going to take a little bit more against Miami
passing the ball than it has in the first two games. Right,
Marcel Lead against him had thirty nine attempts, he completed
twenty five. Julian sand had thirty five attempts, he completed
twenty two. Shambles hid thirty seven completions, he completed twenty three.
(21:05):
So I know Indiana has been whooping people, and it
was seventeen of twenty last week, so it was just
a hair above this. But I do think that Indiana's
gonna have to pass the ball a little bit more
to seal this victory. So I think that sixteen and
a half pass completions is going to be I think
you're gonna see a lot of short completions to try
(21:26):
to counteract this pass rush, right, It's what everything wants
to do. That's why you have a lot of completions
against Miami already. So that one, I feel like is
pretty easy. The next one we're gonna double up a gainer. Yeah,
I thought you would like this one. I'm gonna take
Carson Beck and Fernana Mendoza both the thrown interception.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
That's plus two sixty in this game.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
So, look, Carson Beck has been great at not having
the turnover worthy play, right, but I think against Indiana
he's going to get got, specifically if Indiana is leading late.
That is when you see guys throw picks at the
end of games. It just happens that way, right, But
I also know that, Look, Mendoz is not perfect. He
has thrown interceptions. It has happened, and you are going
(22:11):
to get pressured. I love this Indiana O line. It
doesn't matter. No one is keeping Mesador and Bain off
of the quarterback for the entire game. So he's gonna
have probably happy feat specifically if he gets hit early,
and I think he's going to end up throwing a
pick too, So we're getting two and a half times
for both of them throwing a pick. I think it's
(22:32):
a pretty good assumption here, and I also like the under,
so okay, I like both these teams to turn it over.
Let's go to Mark Fletcher. We're gonna go over sixty
nine and a half rushing yards and look running not
many running backs have hit this over against Indiana this year, Right,
Darry Hill last week he had the seventy one yard rush,
so he got it.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
We did.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
Week one, we saw Colton Joseph with his two seventy
yard plus touchdowns against Indiana for Jude my first bet
of the year, which you know made me very unhappy.
But in between that, it's these close games, right, the
three close games that they played Kamari Moulton eighteen for
seventy five, Nick Singleton ten for seventy one, and Bo
Jackson seventeen for eighty three. So they don't give up
(23:15):
the rushing yards consistently. But again, we have seen the
rushing totals for the Hurricanes just spike in the playoff here,
twenty seven rush attempts against an m thirty five against
Ohio State, fifty against Ole Miss. Right, so they just
keep running.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
The ball flu during that Ole Miss game? Right?
Speaker 4 (23:34):
Two?
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Yeah, Right, so he is their heavy hitter. He's the counterbalance.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
You have to rely on Mark Fletcher to hold the ball,
keep it away from their offense, wear down this defense,
and then hit him over the top to Malachai Tony.
So I think Mark Fletcher is going to have a
decent amount of carries. That's why I think he can
go over this total. So we're gonna roll with Mark
Fletcher to go over sixty nine and a half rushing
yards in the last one. I have another I didn't
(23:59):
want to do wide receiver ones right because, like sure,
they spread the ball out so much in Indiana, you
don't know who's gonna come across these yards or whatever.
That's why I just picked Rot to score a touchdown
with Miami. It's you know who is going to get
the ball, isn't gonna be Malachi Tony or they're just
gonna double him the whole game and open up somebody else.
I just don't know where the ball is going in
(24:20):
the past game. So let's go with Kaylen Black to
go over seventeen and a half on his longest rush.
And Miami has led up some rip plays here, right.
We saw Keywan Lacey with the seventy three yarder to
the house. Last week we saw Jeremiah Smith with the
fifty nine yard of the Craver with the fifty nine yarder.
SO and Kaylen Black four hundred and one breakaway yards
forty two percent. That's seventeenth in the nation among running
(24:43):
backs with one hundred and fifty plus carries, which I
believe there's eighty seventy nine or eighty somewhere in that
neighborhood running backs with that SO, and he has the
highest breakaway percentage on this team. We know the tackling
has been one of the largest issues for Miami as well.
So I think one rip run from Kayln Black here,
because he's got a big chunk of breakaway yards already
(25:04):
forty two percent this season, I think he can have
one big rip against the Canes here.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Yeah, shout out to black Man. He was there RB
three last year in Bloomington and I would see him
coming like like just in Spurts, and I always thought
that guy had a little more juice than Tyson Lotton
and Justice Ellison. He's kind of buried on the depth chart.
I'm so happy he hung around and now he's getting
his time to shine. You know, still in that one
two punch with him by, but he's been really good
(25:28):
and bugs. I love these over longest rushes that you have.
I think you had one last week potentially on Kawan
Lacy or maybe just his yardist prop.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
And I was lazy, okay, and I had his.
Speaker 1 (25:40):
I had his any time touchdown. So we hit that
one light again. Yeah, double cash on that.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
So love that play.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Man. Here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna fire up
our same game parlay. We're gonna take my best bet
of Indiana minus six and a half at minus one
sixty three. That's gonna be our Leg one. That's gonna
get us started here, right, that's gonna say, hey, Indiana,
they just need to win by a touchdown here, let's
not take the hook. And also in leg two, then
we're going to add that even money Elijah Sarah anytime
touchdown props, specifically because box do you know the last
(26:10):
time that Sarah has played in the game and he
has not caught a touchdown?
Speaker 3 (26:14):
It was like Week five ors online, don't know week.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Three against Indiana State. Man, we're talking about I mean,
we're talking in like ten straight games right now, coming
into this one. He's had two games all season where
he didn't score, funny enough, one was against Old Dominion
where you were on him and number and the second
one was Indiana State where they just didn't need him
that day. So absolutely insane run that Sarah has been on.
I think you have to have that.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
Anytime touchdown they played, he scored against every.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Every every p four. He didn't play against Maryland or
he was dressed, but he never went into the game,
you know what I mean, he kind of he was
available if needed.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
And of course every game he's been between the Lions, yeah,
he has scored a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
So yeah, yeah, so I love that. And then Mark
Fletcher over sixty nine and a half of rushing yards
also even money, that's gonna be the third leg here,
because I'm with you, we've seen I looked at all
those game logs these running backs have had against Indiana
and some of these more tighter games, and they've all
went over this, right. So I don't think Fletcher is
(27:14):
gonna have a seventy yard run like you know anything
we saw last week. But at the same time, I
think he's just gonna do enough and keep plowing his
way forward and with how good this secondary and pass
rush is for IU, I think Miami really is gonna
have to stay balanced even if they get down in
this one. So again that's Indiana minus six and a
half minus one sixty three for leg one. Leg two
(27:35):
Elijah stat On the anytime touchdown at even money and
then that third leg Mark Fletcher with over sixty nine
and a half rushing yards at even money as well.
Parlay that together Bogs plus five forty five. Go big
or go home in the natty Baby, that is what
we're doing. And speaking about going big or going home,
it's time for our hard rock best bets of the Week,
(27:57):
presented by our friends over at hard rock Bet. Here's
our favorite bets for the week. I'm going Indiana minus
six and a half. And because our friends down at
hard rock Bet are boogeying because this one's in their
home state, in their home stadium, I got a nice
little boost out there to get this minus six and
a half all the way from that ugly juice I
was paying earlier in the week to minus won twenty
(28:18):
five Bogs. I'll drink that all day because you only
pay the juice if you lose where are you going
for your best bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
I'll go with the under under forty seven and a half.
I like Indiana minus eight and a half as well,
so I'll be on both sides here. But for my
bet of the week, I'm going to take the under
because my twenty eight to seventeen has this to forty five,
and I think that's what the late touchdown. I think
this is going to be twenty one seventeen going late.
You know, no one has scored more than all missed
it against Miami the whole year. I think Indiana. I
(28:47):
think Indiana will win, but I think they'll win on
the back of their defense more than their offense. In
this game, Soles go twenty eight to seventeen and keep
that under here, all.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Right, And shout out to our friends over there at
hard Rock Bet who fueled us all season along with
just some great promos they're dropping every single day all
the boost everything like that. And if you haven't tried
your first bet on hard Rock Bet yet, don't worry.
There's still time for you to get one hundred and
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not only you're gonna get your winnings, but also an
(29:17):
extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Even
if your team might be out of the playoffs like
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and new promos dropping on the red Gie hard Rock
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(29:38):
Download the hard Rock Bet app today and make your
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Speaker 5 (29:42):
Paybal and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the
Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be
twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply.
Concerned about gambling and in Florida, call one eight three
three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you
know is a gambling problem wants help, called one eight
(30:04):
hundred and nine with it Gambling problem called one hundred
gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 1 (30:11):
All right, folks, and that's gonna do it for us
on this episode and this season on the Betting Pros
College Football Show. If you want more player props, I
have a short dropping on Saturday for you on the
VP YouTube channel, So make sure you check that out,
and in the meantime, let us know down the comments
below your best bets for the National Championship game. And
while you're going to make sure you're smashing that like
button and subscribing to the channel. If you're new for
(30:33):
Scott Big Time Bogman, I've said with Wilcock, take care
of y'all. Enjoy the off season.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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Speaker 5 (31:02):
S
All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros College Football show.
The train lets off here in South Beach as it's
our final show of the season where we'll give you
our official picks and predictions for the college football National
Championship Games. One hundred and thirty six teams began the
year with dreams of hoisting the Crystal football, but in
the end, only the number one and undefeated Indiana Hoosiers
(00:25):
and the number ten Miami Hurricanes are left standing for
what should be an absolute banger of a game in
Higher Rock Stadium on Monday night. I'm hero Seth Willcock,
joined by the birthday Boy himself, Scott Boggin, Bogg's happy
birthday brother, And I said this last year to end
it that, you know, I thought my fandom, my just
overall knowledge of college football ten x last year during
(00:48):
the show since we started, well, I think it's safe
to say at ten x once again meaning I love
college football and no one hundred times more about this
game than I did when we first jumped on the
mics all the way back in August twenty twenty four.
And thanks for all the hard work over that time,
my friend.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
Hey, and thank you Seth. It's been a great season, man.
We've had a great time here breaking down some college football.
And I think you learn a little bit every single year.
You know, every year you dive a little deeper, you
know more, And there's a lot to learn these days
because the teams are pretty brand new every single year. Right,
there's a lot of movement with the players. You never
(01:24):
know how guys are gonna gel. But what a fantastic year.
I can't believe that, you know, Indiana of all that
it's gonna be pretty great if Indiana wins before Notre
Dame wins Anati right, like ye, the state of Indiana
would never have bet on that. So very interesting the
(01:44):
way that this year has broken out. And you know,
we knew that Signetty was a good coach after last year.
We knew that Indiana is probably gonna be solid again.
Nobody had him here, so Miami was a pretty popular pick.
Good team, experienced quarterback. I don't think many people had
them here, but it was probably a little bit more
than Indiana because the ACC seemed like an easy walk through.
(02:06):
They weren't even in the ACC title game and here
we are in the Natty. So you know, this is
it's an incredible run. Disappointment from my Longhorns, disappointment for
your nitty Lions because that's the that's the natty we wanted.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Yeah, but of course, uh, it's not the way it
goes in.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Incredible year, a lot of a lot of learning, like
you said, caught fire at the end, which was nice.
But I feel like bold season's been pretty even for me.
But I do have a pretty good feel on this game.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
I agree, been a very you know, five hundred, a
little bit above five hundred round was tracking the units
for the postseason definitely better than the regular season for me. Yeah,
I can tell you that for sure.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
And well, we finally know stuff about these teams and
then they go away.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
For yes, six years, so yeah, absolutely, And it's it's
one of those things, Bogs that at least we had
Week one when your Texas Longhorns were ranked one. My
Penn State nitty line for ranked too, so we'll always
have that in our back pocket. And dude, just like
how much the landscape has changed over these last couple
of seasons, with the coaches moving back and forth, all
(03:10):
the new changes, with the nil and now teams actually
being physically able to have you know, their own money
to get dedicate towards players and their you know, let's
just call them salaries at this point, because that's really
what they are, marketing deals if you if you.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Want to wild west, it is.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
It is. And there's so much screwed up in this
sport right now, whether it's the calendar, whether it is
you know, the players kind of getting taken advantage of
buy some of these agents or quote unquote agents that
you know, there's a lot that needs to change, But
as far as the betting on the games go, it
doesn't get any better.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
The on field product is it's still great. Yeah, And
that's the thing.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Like there's a lot of complaining about the external things
and the way things work and the transfer portal.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
Yeah, the coaching and all that stuff.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
And I understand that, but that stuff is not ruining
college football. There's people that say that continuously and repeatedly
and loudly into microphones, that oh, this is ruining college sports.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
It's not.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
College sports are still fine, right. The way they're done
is different. I know we don't like change.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I get it.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
But as Brad Pitt said in Moneyball, right, adapt or
Die and Signetti. You never heard him complain about the
transfer portal. No ever, he just uses, he takes advantage
of it. He just says, this has changed. I need
to adapt if he adapted, so, I think you see
guys like Jeff Hafley leaving Boston College because they don't
want to deal with the NIL and the recruiting and
(04:36):
all that stuff, which is fine. You know your job
has become way harder, but I'm not going to feel
bad for any head coaches. They have to, you know,
work a little harder to get their guys. I understand
it's harder, but y'all are getting paid a lot, do
your job.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Well, and honestly, like the onfield product has never been
better because some of those transfer quarterbacks are coming in right.
I mean, look at the SEMIS. We had four teams
with all transfer quarterbacks who would have not been on
these teams AFLs before the transfer portal era. So it's
been great. I'm very happy to break it down with
you one more time, and before we get to the
nitty gritty one final time, huge shout to everyone who's
(05:10):
ridden alongside us all season long, either on the Bank
pros YouTube channel or the audio feed. We thank you
for all the sport, through all the hits and the misses,
and as always, please just do a quick favor for us.
Give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this
type of concept. Also, you know I'm about to say,
subscribe to the channel if you're new, so you don't
miss a moment of football betting coverage in twenty twenty six. Also,
(05:31):
if you're looking to up your game in sports betting today,
go ahead and join our exclusive sports betting discord community
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(05:52):
weekly community picks, cast your vote, see how your pick
stack up against the experts, and track your success. And
let's go ahead, and let's fired up. From the number
ten Miami Hurricanes travel to their home stadium right down
the road to face the number one Indiana Hoosiers in
the College Football National Championship Game, kicking off Monday, January
nineteenth at seven thirty pm Eastern Time at hard Rock
(06:15):
Stadium in South Beach. This line originally opened at Indiana
minus seven and a half everywhere. This has now been
bought up a point to minus eight and a half.
I you now minus three thirty five on the money
line Miami plus two sixty five to win outright. The
total has been bought down as well, a point to
forty seven and a half points Indiana. On the injuries,
(06:36):
nothing to report since our Early Lines episode. Edge Stephen
Dally he'll remain out of this one after being injured
while celebrating that Big Ten Championship game, and we did
hear the edge mcal kamara and everyone else who played
in the Semis is good to go for the Hoosiers.
According to Kurt Signetti, Miami on their injury front, their
defensive tackle and run stuff for Amad Moten Junior, and
(06:58):
their edge a key Messador plus the cornerback OJ Frederique,
they are all good to go. Cornerback Demarti Brown he
remains day to day. Starting tight end Elijah Lofton also
popped up on the injury report this week as questionable.
Their defensive lineman Donta Simpson, he hit the portal earlier
this week. He's head to Missou. Many players are also
(07:18):
continued to recover from that flu. The more I dug
into this box, the more it seemed to be a
last week type of issue, that this was actually something
that bothered Mark Fletcher and company going into the Fiesta Bowl.
So we're hoping by Monday most people are cleared up
and that they're one hundred percent to go. With those
immune systems. We're young, you know, we can fight off
a little fluing here and there at that age. I
(07:39):
hope BP projections have Indiana by over ten points, the
total over closer to fifty five and a half points.
For the public betting trends right now, we have seventy
six percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash
on IU. That has come down since earlier this year.
This week, folks, also eighty six percent of the tickets,
seventy six percent of the cash is on the over still,
(07:59):
but that has also come down. Bogs. Earlier this week,
you were leaning towards Indiana and the points at that
time seven and a half and also the under at
forty eight and a half. Are you still there despite
the line movement we've been seeing.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Yeah, I just can't get away from it. It's not
my favorite bit of the year. And I feel like
if there were multiple games this week, this would be
pretty low on the total poll of me, you know,
taking Indiana here. You know, the more we dive in,
the more and more. I'm just convinced that Indiana is
just the best team by a decent stretch here. So
maybe not, And that's not sure. It's definitely not what
(08:35):
has been said on podcasts or articles or any prognostication.
I feel like throughout the week has been Look, this
game is going to be closer, which that's.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
What I said on Monday.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
That's exactly what I said on Monday is I do
think that this game is going to be closer. And
we give it credit for right because we saw Orgon
dominate or we saw Indiana dominate organ right the pick
six to start, just every mistake they made, they were taking.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
Advantage of Hawns.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Yeah, and we should have seen that from Miami because
Old miss made massive Mistakesdada Shambliss had three turnover whethy plays.
I think only one of them ended up going the
other way. They dropped bounce interceptions right that got tipped
at the line. So Miami missed their opportunities to walk
away with that game. And I think that is the
(09:24):
main difference. I think both these rosters are pretty equal.
I would give the edge slightly towards Indiana because of
the quarterback between him, between Mendoza and Becket's definitely Mendoza
by a pretty significant margin to me. But man beck
has done a great job this year. I'm not turning
the ball over. I'm not having those crazy bounce plays,
(09:47):
which had been the bugaboo in that was his Georgia career.
That was his issue was massive moments eat him alive.
He's come alive in the big moments this year. So again,
I think this is going to be closer. But the
thing that Indiana does is they capitalize on mistakes and
they don't give you mistakes. Right, That's the thing. Mendoza
(10:09):
will take a sack, but he'll take a sack so
that he doesn't put the ball in harms way, right.
They just tend to not make mistakes. Specifically on defense.
We saw Kiwan Lacey break that big run, and I
think we saw Craver have a fifty nine yarder against Miami.
We saw Jeremiah Smith have a fifty nine yard touchdown
(10:31):
against Miami. So I think the big play goes the
way of Indiana, and I think that's the difference in
this game still, right, I think it's gonna be low scoring.
I know the cash and tickets are on the over.
I mean Miami is I think twenty seven is the
most points that they've given up this year, and that
was last week. It's Ole miss, right, So yeah, they
(10:53):
gave up twenty six to SMU when they lost that,
and that was an overtime. They gave up twenty two
at Florida State. They give up twenty four in the
loss to Louisville. But twenty seven points last week is
the most that anyone scored against Miami all year long.
So I do respect Indiana's offense. I think they're gonna
be good, but I don't think they're gonna have the
(11:14):
wild success that they had against Oregon. I don't think
they're gonna be running the ball completely down their throat
like they did against Alabama either. I don't think they're
gonna be able to stop this team like they stopped
Alabama either. Miami's offense has been humming recently, specifically with
the run game, but I think that's the issue, right
is running into the teeth of that defense for Miami Hurricanes.
(11:35):
Can Mark Fletcher hit his yardage prop Yeah, is that
gonna be the difference in the game. I don't think
it will be. So I think this is a tight
game pretty close to the end, and I think Indiana
scores late to cover. So I'm gonna go with the
Hoosiers twenty eight seventeen as my final score here in
the Natty.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
I'm glad you laid out that scenario because I also
think that is how this game could go. But I
also think there's a whole second door that I want
to open as well, because earlier this week I touched
on how you have to really play the perfect game
to beat IU right. First and turnover margin one point
four per game. Fifth and penalties very well coached three
point seven of those per games. Six and time possession
and sacks per game. Also third and explosive plays. Miami
(12:19):
is worse than I you in most of those categories,
but still very respectful except penalties. That's one thing I
think catches up with them in this game. Also, the
Hoosiers have won their two college football playoff games bugs
by combining sixty nine points, and that is against blue
bloods like Alabama, like Organ. If I told you that
a year ago, even six months ago, I don't think
you would believe me.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
You know, your video game pal, Yeah, that's what everybody
would have say.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
You think I'm running a dynasty out here. In NCAA
twenty six or something, Miami, they won its three games
by an after twenty one points, so still winning by
an average of a touchdown. But in addition to playing
a cleaner game, one of these teams also as a
Sunday ready quarterback. The other team does not. Right PFF
ranks I first in receiving grade, second in passing grade.
Miami's worst aspect of their entire team. In my opinion,
(13:06):
I love the trenches on offense. I love the trenches
on defense. The skill players have all showed up here
down the stretch. It's still that cornerback room, right, It's
that secondary outside of their nickelback Kyante Scott, who's an
absolute dog out there. Their passing defense is ranked forty fifth,
So I think playing at a bottom ten clip in pace,
playing at a offensive rate where your thirtieth in scoring
(13:30):
does not help Miami. That where let's just put this
scenario out there, Bogs. If Miami gets the kickoff Indiana
to first, they go three and out, Ayu gets the ball,
they go down, score a touchdown. Immediately, You're never gonna
see in my opinion, I think a single digit spread
spread number in this game again, and immediately Miami starts
to get tight, right And what happens though, if that
(13:51):
happens in the second time, Let's say they even get
one or two first downs, ball goes back to Indiana.
Indiana goes back, drives down the field, I think there's
a chance this game is over by the midway through
the second quarter, maybe first quarter, Like that is a possibility,
because I just don't think they have the horses to
come back. Of course, that might not happen, but it
feels like Miami tickets could be dead early whole I
(14:12):
U tickets. I'm never going to feel like they are dead,
no matter the circumstance, because I have a guy like
Fernando Mendoza, like also on players like Sarah, like Omar
Cooper Junior, like these great running backs in Henby and
Black who can go down the field and make these plays.
So I really feel good about this, I'm gonna back Mendoza,
who in my opinion, has been the best player in
(14:33):
college football and will be the number one overall pick
in the NFL draft as well. I just think that
second door is very much open, and that is why
I cannot bet Miami in this game, because I think
that ticket is washed up by halftime. If I'm betting Miami,
I'm doing it live.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
In my opinion, I do think that Miami has the
horses to come back, right, Okay, I do think they
have because Malachai TONI right, like when you're like that
on your shream, he kind of opens up everything on
your as well. So if you get down quickly, I
do think that Miami has the horses to come back,
but I don't want them in that position, right. You
don't want Carson back facing pressure for the majority of
(15:10):
the game because that's when he's going to hurry up
his feet and make that mistake that he's avoided for
most of the season. So I think that while Miami
does have the ability to come back, if they do
get down early, it's not the position you want to
be in at any point in this game, and it
really puts you behind the eight ball. If you are
down very quickly, if it happens like that, or if
(15:32):
a pick six to start the game like happening, it's
Oregon and then it's just a down hill drubbing from that.
And to Oregon's credit, they answered back real quick. They
came back, they scored, they got right back in it.
But then they couldn't stop Indiana at all. You know,
the ball barely hit the ground when Mendoza was throwing it,
so you know, in this defense is very strong. And
(15:54):
the one the few games that Indiana has had issues,
it's been against a good pass rush. Iowa, Penn State,
Ohio State, right like, these are the times where they
did have issues against the good pass rush. And we
even mentioned against Texas Tech that Oregon's pass rush was
you know, below where everything else was on their fight.
So in Alabama had a bad pass rush the entire
(16:16):
season as well. So you see these drubbing games and
you go, well, what is that. That's why I think
it is is because they don't put any pressure on Mendoza.
Mendoza is gonna face pressure in this game. He's gonna
get hit, he's gonna get rocked a couple times too.
But We've seen him answer the call every single time.
He's gotten up off the mat and made the plays
when necessary. And I think, you know, the thing on
(16:39):
defense from Miami for me is the tackling, and that's
you saw Kewe Lacey go into the end zone untouched
right just in some bad spots. They opened themselves up
to some massive plays. And the thing for Indiana is
they have such a good team. They spread the ball
round so much you don't know who is going to
make that big play, and they don't care who makes it.
Someone going to make it, So just answer the call
(17:02):
when you're called upon, and that's what all the Hoosiers do.
So yeah, I'm gonna have to keep rolling with the Hoosiers.
I got a twenty eight to seventeen. Where you going
with this final score?
Speaker 1 (17:11):
For me? I am going with Indiana thirty one Miami
twenty So kind of in that same same vein as you.
I think it's a little bit of h No, I'm
gonna call it drubbing, But I think Indiana gets out
and I think they you know, keep their foot on
the gas and Miami has to play a little catch
up in here.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
That's over.
Speaker 2 (17:28):
Would you say you're confident on the over or would
you say you're I want nothing to.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Do with this total I want nothing because I could
really see because these are both two good defenses, so
my mind wants to tell me, hey, take the under here, right,
But at the same time.
Speaker 2 (17:43):
These Miami was just really EFFI man that that game
plan against Old Miss was not complicated, right. Ole Miss
just could not tackle Malachai TONI. Yeah, they could match
up with the blocking. Indiana's gonna be able to tackle that. Yeah,
Indiana doesn't make those those mistakes, so uh yeah, it's
it's gonna be tough for Miami to make headways. Specifically,
(18:03):
if they get down, they have the horses to do it,
but you do not want to get behind against the Hoosiers.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
Yep, I'm completely in line with you. A random question,
but better true freshman season Jeremiah Smith in twenty twenty
four or Malachi Tony in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
It is still Jeremiah Smith, but I think it.
Speaker 1 (18:23):
Might be Tony. I think it might be Tony because
he is less around him. He is less around him,
and he's like he really has been the whole offense.
Last year they had a Mecca BUCA. They still had Tate,
they still had every better running backs.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
Is touch kissed by gold JSN, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Junior.
They've had an incredible just lost a couple of wide
factory Yeah, Brian.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
Hartline's departure meaning something there. So bo, let's go ahead, though,
Let's jump forward and let's get to our top prop
bets where you have an absolute spread for us today.
You have three anytime touchdowns. Let's start there before we
get to the player over unders.
Speaker 2 (19:02):
All right, so the three touchdowns I'm gonna give you,
And these are hard to figure out at Indiana, right,
but we think Indiana is gonna score. I got him
for four touchdowns. You have them for four touchdowns as well.
So I'm gonna say Elijah Suratt, he just leads them
with fifteen receiving touchdowns this year. God, this guy is
just always open, I feel like. So I think he
scores in Kaylen Black as well scored twice last week.
(19:25):
They're using them more by the goal line than they
use him be at the goal line. So those two guys,
I think in particular. Plus we'll talk about this a
little bit later, but I think if you do get
that breakaway play, it's gonna be from Kaylen Black. And
then for Miami, let's put Malachai Toni on there because
like you and I both think this team is gonna
be losing late, they're gonna be throwing a lot in
the third and fourth country quarter. Who in the country
(19:48):
is more likely to take one, do one, wiggle and
take it to the house is Malachay Tony.
Speaker 3 (19:53):
Dude.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
This dude has been incredible the whole year. They're setting
up screens for him, which I don't like them to run.
They ran it too much against All Miss, so it
kind of has to come off the plate a little
bit for this game against Indiana. But they're gonna run
a couple screens for him and if he can slip
one tackle, he could get in the end zone pretty easily.
So those are my three touchdown calls to start.
Speaker 1 (20:11):
Okay, I love that Sarah has been absolute clinic as
of lately. And Tony he's just so slippery man, and
he can do it all right. You think he's a
guy who needs manufactured touches, He's not, right. He's someone
who can also. I mean there are multiple times in
that Old Miss game too, where he was beating the
reps deep and Carson Beck was missing him or not
seeing him. So I love all those touchdown plays. Bogs,
(20:34):
go ahead and hit us with your four over unders
that you have in the player prop market, two of
which are locking in on the Heisman Trophy winner.
Speaker 2 (20:44):
Yeah, let's go the first one for Nandel Mendoz over
sixteen and a half ass completions, and I think it's
likely going to take a little bit more against Miami
passing the ball than it has in the first two games. Right,
Marcel Lead against him had thirty nine attempts, he completed
twenty five. Julian sand had thirty five attempts, he completed
twenty two. Shambles hid thirty seven completions, he completed twenty three.
(21:05):
So I know Indiana has been whooping people, and it
was seventeen of twenty last week, so it was just
a hair above this. But I do think that Indiana's
gonna have to pass the ball a little bit more
to seal this victory. So I think that sixteen and
a half pass completions is going to be I think
you're gonna see a lot of short completions to try
(21:26):
to counteract this pass rush, right, It's what everything wants
to do. That's why you have a lot of completions
against Miami already. So that one, I feel like is
pretty easy. The next one we're gonna double up a gainer. Yeah,
I thought you would like this one. I'm gonna take
Carson Beck and Fernana Mendoza both the thrown interception.
Speaker 3 (21:46):
That's plus two sixty in this game.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
So, look, Carson Beck has been great at not having
the turnover worthy play, right, but I think against Indiana
he's going to get got, specifically if Indiana is leading late.
That is when you see guys throw picks at the
end of games. It just happens that way, right, But
I also know that, Look, Mendoz is not perfect. He
has thrown interceptions. It has happened, and you are going
(22:11):
to get pressured. I love this Indiana O line. It
doesn't matter. No one is keeping Mesador and Bain off
of the quarterback for the entire game. So he's gonna
have probably happy feat specifically if he gets hit early,
and I think he's going to end up throwing a
pick too, So we're getting two and a half times
for both of them throwing a pick. I think it's
(22:32):
a pretty good assumption here, and I also like the under,
so okay, I like both these teams to turn it over.
Let's go to Mark Fletcher. We're gonna go over sixty
nine and a half rushing yards and look running not
many running backs have hit this over against Indiana this year, Right,
Darry Hill last week he had the seventy one yard rush,
so he got it.
Speaker 1 (22:52):
We did.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
Week one, we saw Colton Joseph with his two seventy
yard plus touchdowns against Indiana for Jude my first bet
of the year, which you know made me very unhappy.
But in between that, it's these close games, right, the
three close games that they played Kamari Moulton eighteen for
seventy five, Nick Singleton ten for seventy one, and Bo
Jackson seventeen for eighty three. So they don't give up
(23:15):
the rushing yards consistently. But again, we have seen the
rushing totals for the Hurricanes just spike in the playoff here,
twenty seven rush attempts against an m thirty five against
Ohio State, fifty against Ole Miss. Right, so they just
keep running.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
The ball flu during that Ole Miss game? Right?
Speaker 4 (23:34):
Two?
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Yeah, Right, so he is their heavy hitter. He's the counterbalance.
Speaker 2 (23:39):
You have to rely on Mark Fletcher to hold the ball,
keep it away from their offense, wear down this defense,
and then hit him over the top to Malachai Tony.
So I think Mark Fletcher is going to have a
decent amount of carries. That's why I think he can
go over this total. So we're gonna roll with Mark
Fletcher to go over sixty nine and a half rushing
yards in the last one. I have another I didn't
(23:59):
want to do wide receiver ones right because, like sure,
they spread the ball out so much in Indiana, you
don't know who's gonna come across these yards or whatever.
That's why I just picked Rot to score a touchdown
with Miami. It's you know who is going to get
the ball, isn't gonna be Malachi Tony or they're just
gonna double him the whole game and open up somebody else.
I just don't know where the ball is going in
(24:20):
the past game. So let's go with Kaylen Black to
go over seventeen and a half on his longest rush.
And Miami has led up some rip plays here, right.
We saw Keywan Lacey with the seventy three yarder to
the house. Last week we saw Jeremiah Smith with the
fifty nine yard of the Craver with the fifty nine yarder.
SO and Kaylen Black four hundred and one breakaway yards
forty two percent. That's seventeenth in the nation among running
(24:43):
backs with one hundred and fifty plus carries, which I
believe there's eighty seventy nine or eighty somewhere in that
neighborhood running backs with that SO, and he has the
highest breakaway percentage on this team. We know the tackling
has been one of the largest issues for Miami as well.
So I think one rip run from Kayln Black here,
because he's got a big chunk of breakaway yards already
(25:04):
forty two percent this season, I think he can have
one big rip against the Canes here.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
Yeah, shout out to black Man. He was there RB
three last year in Bloomington and I would see him
coming like like just in Spurts, and I always thought
that guy had a little more juice than Tyson Lotton
and Justice Ellison. He's kind of buried on the depth chart.
I'm so happy he hung around and now he's getting
his time to shine. You know, still in that one
two punch with him by, but he's been really good
(25:28):
and bugs. I love these over longest rushes that you have.
I think you had one last week potentially on Kawan
Lacy or maybe just his yardist prop.
Speaker 3 (25:37):
And I was lazy, okay, and I had his.
Speaker 1 (25:40):
I had his any time touchdown. So we hit that
one light again. Yeah, double cash on that.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
So love that play.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Man. Here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna fire up
our same game parlay. We're gonna take my best bet
of Indiana minus six and a half at minus one
sixty three. That's gonna be our Leg one. That's gonna
get us started here, right, that's gonna say, hey, Indiana,
they just need to win by a touchdown here, let's
not take the hook. And also in leg two, then
we're going to add that even money Elijah Sarah anytime
touchdown props, specifically because box do you know the last
(26:10):
time that Sarah has played in the game and he
has not caught a touchdown?
Speaker 3 (26:14):
It was like Week five ors online, don't know week.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Three against Indiana State. Man, we're talking about I mean,
we're talking in like ten straight games right now, coming
into this one. He's had two games all season where
he didn't score, funny enough, one was against Old Dominion
where you were on him and number and the second
one was Indiana State where they just didn't need him
that day. So absolutely insane run that Sarah has been on.
I think you have to have that.
Speaker 3 (26:37):
Anytime touchdown they played, he scored against every.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
Every every p four. He didn't play against Maryland or
he was dressed, but he never went into the game,
you know what I mean, he kind of he was
available if needed.
Speaker 2 (26:49):
And of course every game he's been between the Lions, yeah,
he has scored a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (26:53):
So yeah, yeah, so I love that. And then Mark
Fletcher over sixty nine and a half of rushing yards
also even money, that's gonna be the third leg here,
because I'm with you, we've seen I looked at all
those game logs these running backs have had against Indiana
and some of these more tighter games, and they've all
went over this, right. So I don't think Fletcher is
(27:14):
gonna have a seventy yard run like you know anything
we saw last week. But at the same time, I
think he's just gonna do enough and keep plowing his
way forward and with how good this secondary and pass
rush is for IU, I think Miami really is gonna
have to stay balanced even if they get down in
this one. So again that's Indiana minus six and a
half minus one sixty three for leg one. Leg two
(27:35):
Elijah stat On the anytime touchdown at even money and
then that third leg Mark Fletcher with over sixty nine
and a half rushing yards at even money as well.
Parlay that together Bogs plus five forty five. Go big
or go home in the natty Baby, that is what
we're doing. And speaking about going big or going home,
it's time for our hard rock best bets of the Week,
(27:57):
presented by our friends over at hard rock Bet. Here's
our favorite bets for the week. I'm going Indiana minus
six and a half. And because our friends down at
hard rock Bet are boogeying because this one's in their
home state, in their home stadium, I got a nice
little boost out there to get this minus six and
a half all the way from that ugly juice I
was paying earlier in the week to minus won twenty
(28:18):
five Bogs. I'll drink that all day because you only
pay the juice if you lose where are you going
for your best bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
I'll go with the under under forty seven and a half.
I like Indiana minus eight and a half as well,
so I'll be on both sides here. But for my
bet of the week, I'm going to take the under
because my twenty eight to seventeen has this to forty five,
and I think that's what the late touchdown. I think
this is going to be twenty one seventeen going late.
You know, no one has scored more than all missed
it against Miami the whole year. I think Indiana. I
(28:47):
think Indiana will win, but I think they'll win on
the back of their defense more than their offense. In
this game, Soles go twenty eight to seventeen and keep
that under here, all.
Speaker 1 (28:56):
Right, And shout out to our friends over there at
hard Rock Bet who fueled us all season along with
just some great promos they're dropping every single day all
the boost everything like that. And if you haven't tried
your first bet on hard Rock Bet yet, don't worry.
There's still time for you to get one hundred and
fifty dollars in extra bonus bets if you win. Just
place a five dollar bet and if it hits you,
not only you're gonna get your winnings, but also an
(29:17):
extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Even
if your team might be out of the playoffs like
boxes like my Penn State and any Lions are, that
doesn't mean you have to sit on the sidelines between
same game parlays, live betting, a can't miss welcome offer,
and new promos dropping on the red Gie hard Rock
Bet as you covered all postseason long, that's hard Rock Bet.
(29:38):
Download the hard Rock Bet app today and make your
first deposit.
Speaker 5 (29:42):
Paybal and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the
Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC in other states. Must be
twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply.
Concerned about gambling and in Florida, call one eight three
three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you
know is a gambling problem wants help, called one eight
(30:04):
hundred and nine with it Gambling problem called one hundred
gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
Speaker 1 (30:11):
All right, folks, and that's gonna do it for us
on this episode and this season on the Betting Pros
College Football Show. If you want more player props, I
have a short dropping on Saturday for you on the
VP YouTube channel, So make sure you check that out,
and in the meantime, let us know down the comments
below your best bets for the National Championship game. And
while you're going to make sure you're smashing that like
button and subscribing to the channel. If you're new for
(30:33):
Scott Big Time Bogman, I've said with Wilcock, take care
of y'all. Enjoy the off season.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
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Speaker 5 (31:02):
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