Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's going on everybody? Scott Bogman here for Betting Pros
to give you my favorite picks and props for the
conference championship week of twenty twenty five here in the
college football season. Look, before we jump in here, I
got to tell you, guys, if you're looking to up
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the experts, and track your success today. All right, let's
start by reviewing what happened in Week fourteen. We crushed
the picks again, bad on the props again, but the
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picks North Texas minus nineteen and a half cleared easy
Arizona Arizona State under forty eight and a half. They
only scored thirty. Oklahoma minus nine and a half or
zelis you did not work out seventeen to thirteen was
final there. Indiana over forty one and a half at Purdue.
This fifty six Colorado team total under seventeen and a
half at Kansas State got that that was twenty four
(01:05):
to fourteen BYU minus seventeen and a half. First, UCF
looked a little dicey to start the game when UCF
got up fourteen nothing, but that final was forty one
twenty one b YU Vanderbilt plus three at Tennessee and
the team total over thirty one and a half. They
won forty five to twenty four on the road against Tennessee.
That one was a win. Wisconsin has got me three
(01:25):
weeks and three weeks in a row. Luckily they can't
get me again because they don't play this week. Seventeen
to seven I at Auburn plus six and a half
versus Alabama. They lost twenty seven to twenty, So that
was another one I missed. But we did get the
hard rock bet of the week Missouri minus two and
a half at Arkansas. They ended up winning that one
thirty one to seventeen, putting the picks seventy five and
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sixty four in the year, so eleven games over five
hundred three and seven on the props didn't get a
touchdown call at all. Haines King didn't score for me again.
Burt Ficklin, after screwed me out of the Parker touchdown
the week before, didn't score this week against Kansas, and
then Leonora Sellers did not get in against Clemson either.
(02:10):
I had over two and a half passing touchdowns for Mendoza,
he only had two. We did hit Mason Heischel under
two hundred and forty and a half. That was one
ninety nine. Darian Menza had two hundred and sixty eight
passing yards when I picked him under two hundred sixty
one and a half. Thank you wake for us for
turnover the ball four times. Dean Connors for Houston did
not get to sixty nine and a half, fifty one
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for him. Brennan Thompson was over sixty two and a half.
Antonio Williams was over fifty eight and a half. Eighty
and sixty six for those guys. But cam Coleman two
yards short, three yards short of getting clearing US forty
five and a half. He had forty three, So bad
breaks on some of those, but bad process on some
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of them as well. But eleven games over on the picks,
two games under on the props, so nine total over
five hundred for this season. But we got a lot
left here, and I'm gonna give you a lean for
every game, at least the games that I didn't pick.
But I do have picks in most of the nine
conference championships here. So let's just go ahead and kick
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it off. We're gonna go James Madison versus Troy this game. Look,
James Madison has a chance to make the tournament very outside.
Duke would have to win against Virginia. Their margin is
very small, but they're gonna do everything they can to
beat down Troy to impress the committee to try to
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get in. So we're gonna go team total over thirty
four and a half. Troy has had a good year,
but they're not even the second best team here in
the Sunbelt. So this should not have been the conference championship,
but you play the games that are in front of you.
I think JAMU scores way more than this. They're way better.
The strength of schedule is early similar, but statistically James
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Madison and is easily the best team. So thirty four
and a half, I think they're going to clear that
pretty easy. We're gonna go to UNLV we're gonna do
another team total here over twenty six and a half
at Boise State. They've scored more than this in every
single game that they played. They scored more than this
the last time they played Boise State. There is going
to be some rain in this game. It's gonna be cold,
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but it's not gonna be cold enough to snow in
Boise or at least the forecast today says it's not
going to be. So I think UNOV is gonna be
able to put up some points. Boise State's played strong defense,
but UNLV has been really really good on offense this year.
I don't know who wins this game. I was initially
wanted to take UNLV, but Boise State gets their quarterback
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Matters SPACs and back who They put up a lot
of points in this game last time. So less confident
about UNLV than I was. But I do think they'll score.
So twenty six and a half over for them, I
think is nice. We're gonna go under in the MATC
Conference Championship Miami o higover sweat Michigan. It's under forty
three and a half. Now, Look, we are fading the
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public on this public is way way big on the over.
Gott Kowski looks pretty good for Miami in his starts. Obviously,
this is a different game than what it was earlier
because to Kawan Finn was a quarterback at Miami and
he decided to go pro and left in Miami early,
so they've been, you know, trying to find the quarterback.
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They had Hessen in their first who benched him and
went to Gottkowski, and he looks better. I like Western
Michigan in this game, but I think I like the
under better because both these defenses are strong. Both these
offenses a week Specifically, Western Michigan is a run heavy team.
I do think they'll win this game running heavy, but
they play very strong defense as well. Going up a
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quarterback up against the quarterback in his second career start
in a conference championship game, I think it's just going
to be too much. But I like the under here more.
We're gonna go BYU team total under seventeen and a
half versus Texas Tech. We saw this play out last time,
and look, Texas Tech is now own for their offense overall, right,
but they have been winning this year on defense led
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by David Bailey. David Bailey's one of the best defensive
linemen in the country. He has been harassing passers, stopping
the run. This whole defense is great. Jacob Rodriguez may
maybe should be in the Heisman talk as well. They've
been giving him touchdowns on offense last couple weeks to
try to get his name in there. He's had so
many turnovers as their main play caller on linebacker. This
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defense for Texas Tech is just very, very stacked, and
this is what BYU does. They do usually run down
everybody's throat. Can't do that against Texas Tech. Now, they
played defense very well against Texas Tech in that first game.
They held him into two touchdowns, have five field goals
on their drives. And this is a very good offense
from Texas Tech as well. But they're led by their
defense and I think they hold BYU under seventeen and
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a half. We're going to go both sides of the
ACC title game duke team total under twenty six and
a half in UVA minus three and a half. We
saw this game three week and it was thirty four
to seventeen Virginia one. And Virginia lost their second week
against North Carolina State and then won every game until
wake Forest hurt their quarterback Chandler Morris, and they lost
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that game sixteen to nine. The defense for Virginia is real.
It's been better moving closer to the end of the season.
Chandler Morris is a great quarterback and Duke is all offense,
no defense, right, and their one dimensional on offense as well,
it's Darien mens in the passing game is all they have.
I think it's going to be really easy for Virginia
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to control the clock here, and I think they're gonna
win this game going away, just like they did the
first matchup, which was at Duke, by the way, So
I just think Virginia dominates this game. I don't think
Duke is gonna hold the ball long enough to put
up twenty six and a half points either, So under
twenty six and a half for Duke and Virginia minus
three and a half. The other games that we have
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here Kennesaw minus two and a half at Jacksonville Stay
and over fifty seven and a half, I think this
one's gonna be back and forth. I think I'm more
into the over now than I am Kennesaw. It is
gonna go back and forth, or boy, Seth knows the
G five probably a little bit better than me, and
he really likes Jacksonville State. It's one of his favorite
bets of the week. I just think that this game
(08:18):
was very close last time, and Kenesaw turned the ball
over four times. I think if they can cut those back,
they're in this game. So it's a very close spread.
Maybe whoever you like on the money line, or if
you like Kennesaw, maybe the money line for them and
eat the juice a little bit. I'm gonna lean towards
Georgia versus Alabama. I think Alabama is more desperate. I
just think george is a better team, and Georgia has
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a buy to play for as well. It's not like
they have nothing to play for, so I think that
I think Georgia does win this game. I just think
Bama is a step behind what Georgia is right now.
I'll say this though this there's a reason it's a
lean right and not a take. I'm not taking this one.
I just I don't really think that Alabama has enough
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to beat this current version of Georgia. Now, Alabama already
beat Georgia once this year. I know that, but I
think they're playing different levels of football. I think we
saw Georgia peak in that stretch. They beat Georgia, they
beat Tennessee, they beat a tough Missouri team on the
road as well. Right, and Georgia has won eight straight
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since that loss. They've looked better. They've won going away
in some of those games. They beat Texas thirty five
to ten. I think Georgia is one of the best
teams in the country right now. I think they're better
than Bama. So Georgia minus two and a half, but
that game is razor thin. And Ohio State versus Indiana,
I mean, you know, I would love to give you
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a heavy lean one way or the other. I don't
have that. I'll say this, we know these are probably
the two best teams in the country. But we definitely
know that Ohio State's the best team in the country.
That's what we know right now. Could that change out
of this game, Yes, But they've played one one score game.
That was Texas Week one and Julian Sands's first start ever.
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That was their only one score game, fourteen to seven.
Every other game they've won by double digits so or
at least nine points. So I just I think that
Ohio State is dominant, and until I see someone play
within a touchdown of them, which has not happened this year,
I'm going to take Ohio State. That's just going to
be the way that I roll on that. Now let's
(10:31):
get to the props. But before we do, let me
remind you guys. You can track your bets, stay accountable
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(10:52):
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in active your trial on the upgrade screen. All right,
three touchdown calls for you this week? None of the
same ones I had last week, Thank god. But James
Madison QB Linza Barnett versus Kennesaw versus Troy. Excuse me,
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he leads JAMU in rushing touchdowns. I think they're going
to score a lot against Troy, obviously, have the team
total over thirty five and a half thirty four and
a half for James Madison, so I think that he
could easily get that one. We're gonna go to a
surging wide receiver here for North Texas wide receiver White
Young at two lane to score touchdowns. He has four
(11:36):
touchdowns in the last five games here. He has become
one of mess to Maker's main guys and he has
had some huge production over the last few weeks. So
he's been This is the whole North Texas offense is
winning us money. So let's just follow it and let's
go to I think UNLV is going to go over
their team total. So Jaiden Thomas, the running back at BOIS.
(11:57):
He said he has thirteen touchdowns this season. He had
one against Boys State in that first matchup as well,
so those are three touchdowns. James Madison, North Texas James
Madison quarterback along Barnett, North Texas wide receiver White Young,
un V running back Jadan Thomas. Let's go to Texas
Tech QB Barren Morton. I'm gonna go under two hundred
and forty eight and a half passing yards versus BYU.
(12:18):
I do think that the Texas Tech defense holds BYU down. However,
I don't really think that Texas Tech moves the ball
exponentially better against this BYU defense. This defense has been
really strong in the last game, Barreon Morton at two
hundred nineteen yards in a touchdown. They should lean on
their lead with the run game, so I think they'll
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run the ball a lot. I don't know that Baron
Morton gets his total, so we're gonna go under on that.
We are going to take two lane quarterback Jake Rutz
laugh over thirty three and a half rushing yards versus
North Texas. He's averaging forty eight yards per game, thirty
one designed eighteen in scrambles. He's the team's leading rusher.
And North Texas stops the pass better than they stop
the run. They're seventieth and they're in the seventies ranked
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in sacks per game and in pass rush grade. So
North Texas will let Jake Retz Laugh run and he
will bail out when he needs to, and they don't
get a bunch of sacks there. You know, sackyards count
against rushing yards for quarterbacks. I understand that, but North
Texas they're outscoring opponents. They tackle well, but they don't
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get after the pass that well. Alabama quarterback Tys Simpson
over thirty two and a half passing attempts fort Georgia.
I picked Georgia to win, and not only did I
pick them to win, but Alabama has had to pass
ball a bunch because they don't have a very good
run game this season. He's passed this in four of
his last five games. Ty Simpson has and one hundred
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and twenty ninth and sex in the country for Georgia.
So with talent like Jeremy Bernard, Ryan Williams Quavis right,
I think that we're gonna see a lot of passing
from Alabama in this game. And they are projected to lose,
so they should be playing comeback late, which leads to
more passing attempts to the running backs. Here we're gonna go.
Jacksonville State running back Camp Cook over one hundred and
(14:05):
twenty four and a half rushing yards versus Kannessall. He
hit this in seven games. Troy is ninety six statistically
against the run, seventieth in run defense grade. This is
what they do to win. They run, run, run, run, run,
cam Cook, I believe is leading the country in rushing
yards right now, he's gonna have a ton versus Kenna
saw Here Boise State running back Dylan Riley over seventy
(14:27):
eight and a half rushing yards versus UNLV. I like
Boise tas to score some points here. The best game
of his season so far was in the first game
against UNLV, where he had fifteen rushes for two hundred
one yards and a touchdown. Ditto for Jamari Taylor. This
wasn't his best game of the year, but as sold
was eighty nine and a half rushing yards for Virginia
(14:48):
In their game against Duke a couple of weeks ago,
he had one hundred and thirty three and he has
at least eighteen carries in the last five weeks, so
I think eighty nine and a half against a week
run defense like Duke has is easily attainable. Here. Kennisaw
wide receiver Gabriel Bernard over sixty six and a half
receiving yards vers Jacksonville State is our last prop. Six targets,
(15:08):
five catches, one hundred yards. In the last game. He
leads in targets on Kennesaw by thirty two over the
next over the number two wide receiver and thirty nine
over the third highest target guy on the team here,
So Benyard has just been there guy. I think Kennasall
is in that game, right. I think Odaman is going
to be able to pass the ball here, So over
(15:31):
sixty six and a half receiving yards, I think that
is too low. So it's a review before we get
to the hard rock bet of the week. Our Conference
Championship picks official picks going on the record, JAMU team
total over thirty four and a half. You know, v
team total over twenty six and a half, Miami versus
West Western Michigan under forty three and a half, BYU
team total over under seventeen and a half, and Duke
(15:53):
team total under twenty six and a half plus UVA
minus three and a half. So seven picks there plus
the hard by of the week. We'll get too in
a second. My leans Kennesaal minus two and a half.
I like the over fifty seven and a half. I
like Georgia, and we like Ohio State minus four and
a half. The props three touchdowns Alonzo Barnett, y Young
(16:14):
Gaiden Thomas for James Madison, North Texas un ov Barren
Morton under two hundred and forty eight and a half
for Texas Tech two lane quarterback Jake retz Laugh over
thirty three and a half rushing yards versus North Texas
Alabama quarterback Tys Simpson over thirty two and a half
pass attempts. Jacksonville State running back Cam Cook over one
hundred and twenty four and a half rushing yards versus
Kennesaw Dylan Riley over seventy eight and a half rushing
(16:37):
yards Samari Taylor over eighty nine and a half in
Gabrielle Benyard over sixty six and a half receiving yards
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Speaker 1 (18:25):
All right, our hard rock bet of the week to
end out the show. We're riding this train, baby, We've
done it all year long. North Texas minus two and
a half at TWU Lane. There's supposed to be light
rain and wind in this game. When it's light rain
and wind, it typically favors the offense. North Texas has
outscored their opponents all year long. They got a little
(18:46):
hamstrung by Navy. Tulane doesn't have Navy's defense. This is
a good game. I think Jake Retz left keeps tu
Lane in it obviously. I think he's going to run
and pass the ball well. But North Texas offense, just
to me, is too much for Tulane here. I think
they win going away. So minus two and a half
we will take it. We are showing value to that side.
(19:06):
We got it closer to a four and a half
to five point game in North Texas favor. So that
is it for me. Good luck everybody and we'll be
back with bowl coverage for you. Seth and I we'll
be covering the Bowls. I'll be doing this show as
well with the props, so stick around. We got way
more college football to come in bowl season and playoff seasons.
So that is it for us. Now take it easy
(19:27):
and good luck. We will see you in a couple weeks.
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
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