College Football Conference Championships Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 892) - BettingPros Podcast

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right, and welcome into the Betting pros College Football Show.
It's an absolutely insane time around the sport right now
with early National Signing Day opening up. Also, we have
the coaching carousel which is heating up at an all
time clip right now. I'm your host Seth Wilcock, and
I put it out on X earlier, but being a
Penn State fan today feels a lot like the Will

(00:23):
Smith last episode of Fresh Prince Gift, where it's just him,
It's just an empty house and there's nothing around him.
And of course I'm joined by someone who probably also
feels a little left out in the cold this week,
as his Texas Longhorns are still on the outside looking
in of the college football playoff.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
He's Scott Bogman. Boggs, how are you?

Speaker 1 (00:41):
Obviously you're doing better than me after we got out
bid by the Crumble Cookie guy and another dude just
crushing creatinine all day. So how are the overall vibes for.

Speaker 2 (00:49):
You heading into the weekend?

Speaker 3 (00:51):
Hey, look, you know Texas is not making the tournament.
I had no grand aspirations of that, and I knew
like it just always sark just sounds better campaigning like
but you know, the team first of all did it.
They all do it. It's you know, how can you
not put my team in the blah blah blah. Look,
I understand the positives and negatives for Texas going in,

(01:12):
I get it right, But they said the president last
year Bama didn't get in, Texas wasn't going to get
in this year, right, Uh So that's fine. Look we
still beat A and M we still beat Oklahoma. That
is all that I need to warm my heart for
Christmas time, seth. So we're keeping to that. And I
do feel bad for you. It didn't seem like Sataki

(01:32):
was maybe Penn State's big swing here. But there's gonna
be a lot of fired NFL coaches at the end
of the year. You'll get to pick from that group
as well. So uh, I mean that there are there
are still options out there for Penn State. And know
it's not like that job is going to be vacant.
I just go with Smith, why not? No? No, what

(01:53):
about intern for another year? Just lead the interim tag
on him.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
We're already if you look at a recruiting class today,
that we already the bad part.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
That is what happened when we fired James Franklin.

Speaker 1 (02:04):
We have one of the worst recruiting classes, not just
in the power for like, yes, it is terrible. And
at the same time, Bogs, we also kind of closed
this window on all the G five coaches that could
have came and we could have got a lot of
their guys through the transfer portal, like the Morrises and
everyone coming out of that conference that could have came

(02:24):
up and helped us. And I thought Brian Hartline was
like the ace in r sleeve and we're gonna pull
them out, and he was gonna bring a bunch of
Ohio State recruits.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
Not the case. Not the case.

Speaker 3 (02:33):
Yeah, I I you know, I firing Franklin, I think
was it was probably the necessary step for the fans base.
They should have hired somebody way quick.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
You had a month and a half, right, it's not
like wet Franklin before everybody else got fired R Yeah.

Speaker 3 (02:48):
It's like almost everybody So yeah, too long drug their
feet in the process and it hasn't worked out. So
you know, I still think Penn State is going to
be a good team. They'll get players in the secondary
sign they'll get transfer guys as well. They'll be okay,
but this is a bad look. It is.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
It is a long recovery. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
I hopefully next year we can just fade Penn State together,
right and that can kind of be what we want
to do.

Speaker 2 (03:14):
I tried fade them a couple of times this year.
Did not work. Did not work betting on. I think
I was owned four on Penn State this year.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
So sad times there, but honestly, still a great time
overall in the sport.

Speaker 2 (03:25):
So much buzz happening around it.

Speaker 1 (03:27):
It keeps us employed, keeps lights on here and as usual,
it is our midweek program where we're gonna give you
our picks for all nine conference title games. We're also
gonna update you on the injury report, line movement, and
where the BP projections currently stand.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
Then we'll get out of here with our best bets.

Speaker 1 (03:42):
As always, shout to everyone who's still crushing with us
on the Betting pros YouTube channel.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
Or the audio feed.

Speaker 1 (03:48):
We are really looking forward to this stretch run to
the title game the easiest freeway to support us and
give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this
type of content, Also make sure you subscribe so you
don't miss a moment of college football Betting cup Ridge.
The rest of the way, we have some really really
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Speaker 1 (05:59):
Let's start on Friday at seven pm Eastern Time in
Calhoun County, Alabama. We have the nine to three Kanasas
State Owls. They have moved to a two and a
half point favorite over the eight and four Jacksonville State
game Cocks for the Conference USA Championship game. Kananasas State,
they're at full strength in this one.

Speaker 2 (06:17):
Jack State.

Speaker 1 (06:17):
Meanwhile, they're defensive tackle Juwan Campbell, they're right tackle Reggie Jackson,
and their flanker wide receiver Brock Rothsteiner. They are all questionable.
The BP projections they have this game at a pick them.
So are you staying packed with the Owls after they
moved out to a favor Bogs.

Speaker 3 (06:34):
I really don't like the direction this moved in for
right like, and I was honestly surprised to see it
because I feel like everything I read, everything I watched,
all the experts are picking Jacksonville State in this game,
and I understand that like everyone I've watched also said
this game is going to be very close. So this
is a tough one for me. I'm gonna stick with

(06:56):
my lean towards Kennesall though I think this game is
likely to be a one score game the way, So
I think Kennesaw on the money line is a fine
play as well if you want to just not involve points.
But I'll lay the three because I'm thinking, but I'm
starting to think maybe the over is a better play.
Both these teams played a top fifty pace, they're both
better on offense, they both match up well with each other.

(07:18):
Our numbers are very close to the total in this
so they have it more as a coin flip, sure,
but really it's the the Amaro Odam turnovers. You know
for turnovers in this game for Kennesau last time, and
three of those were picks. I think that you know
Odamazin thrown a pick since that game. I think if
he cuts down on those turnovers, this game is really close.

(07:39):
I'll give the lean towards Kennesaw. But there's rain with
light wind as well, which is usually good for offense.
So yeah, I think the over is probably my better lean.
Kennesaw is my lien as well, but I'm not going
beyond that. They are Lians. I'm not putting money on
this championship game. I'm not doing it.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
It was so funny Bogs over the weekends that my
dad's house. I had a four quadbox going in the
living room and it was in between before the Alabama
Auburn games started.

Speaker 3 (08:07):
I only have the weirdest squad box too.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
I do, I do, And my grandpa walks and he says,
who are these teams? And it was Kanessas State in
Liberty and He's like, what is going on here?

Speaker 2 (08:17):
And did exist? Yeah, So he was a little confused.

Speaker 1 (08:21):
I had to kind of catch him up on what
the G five is, try to compare that to the
power for without making it sound like the FCS. It
was a very difficult process, but as a whole I'll
tell you this, the one thing I've taken away and
I've actually watched a decent amount of Kannesau and Jacksonville
State this year. KANISAU keeps these games close and they
find a way to win them.

Speaker 2 (08:39):
So instead of just.

Speaker 1 (08:40):
Going ahead and laying the points with Kanisau or even
taking Jacksonville State on the plus side of the money line,
I'm gonna go with Jacksonville State over twenty eight and
a half. I'm getting this a minus one p fifteen
right now. I also heard in a comment earlier on
one of these episodes we did this week box where
apparently team totals are not available in some states. Not
know that, so apologies to those who cannot bet team

(09:04):
totals because I can't be player props in PA, but
had no idea that was a thing. But in this
game for me, Bogs, really I'm looking for mismatches, and
I think there's no bigger mismatch on the field than
the nation's leading rusher, Cam Cook in the backfield for
Jacksonville State against the ninety eighth ranked run defense of
kanasaw Right. The books have consistently been leaving Jacksonville State
out hanging this year, and we'd capitalized a couple times.

(09:27):
The only time I didn't hit on them when I
bet on them, I was two and one. The one
time I didn't was FIU last month where they had
the game impact and they just.

Speaker 2 (09:35):
Fumbled it away. Yet fumbled away twice.

Speaker 1 (09:37):
So still like I think, really like the Owls with
them gutting out these close wins and the Odam and
Bayer connection. I'm just taking the team total over here.
Jacksonville State has cleared this number in six of eight
CUSA games this season.

Speaker 2 (09:50):
Kanasas State's last.

Speaker 1 (09:51):
Three games have seen their opponent go over this total,
averaging thirty seven points in that span. And that's teams
like Liberty, right that weren't really that good on offense.
So I love the This is really my second favorite
bet of the week. Jacksonville State over twenty eight and a.

Speaker 3 (10:03):
Half two hundred and fifty two rushing yards against Kennesau
State in that first matchup, two seventeen for Kennesaw though,
right right, That's why I'm thinking the over is a
better place about jack Ville State. Yeah, and I just
think this offense is improved for Kennesau so over as well.
But like I said, I'll watch that one from the side.
It's no action for me.

Speaker 1 (10:24):
Most books have moved the nineteenth ring James Madison Dukes
to twenty three and a half point.

Speaker 2 (10:29):
Favorites over the eight and four Troy Trojans.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
And I will say though, our friends over at hard
Rock Bet they're still actually offering a twenty two and
a half point ticket for the Sun Belt Championship game
on Friday night.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
If you want to get invested over there.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Another great reason to get invested with our friends at
hard Rock Bet. Troyd Right now coming in at full
strength JM you. Meanwhile, they have their linebacker Gannon weather Be,
their ex wide receiver Landon Ellis both listed as probable,
their RB two Jordan Fuller, he is questionable, and they're
also gonna have a few line and D lineman in
the two deep out BP projections. Right now, we are

(11:04):
at twenty one and a half points. Therefore, I'm gonna
tease this down. I'm gonna go twenty and a half
points minus one P fifty.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
They're on the alt line. What about you, Scotti?

Speaker 3 (11:14):
I mean, I think that's a good play, alting this
if you want, because the line did go the wrong
way right. We were talking about this on Monday and
we said, Okay, it's twenty one and a half. Now,
if it slides down to twenty and a half, I'm
all over it because that's where we're showing value for
BP as well. So for this one, I'm also gonna
go with the team total. We're gonna stick to the

(11:35):
JMU over thirty four and a half. They've gone over
this in five of the last six games Troy has
won with defense this year. But I just really don't
buy into anyone in the Sunbelt really competing with James
Madison right, and their loss was to Louisville. They had
the one weird seven point win over Georgia State, but
all other sunblt foes lost by ten points are more

(11:57):
to James Madison, and they scored thirty five plus and
six of eight conference games this year. So I think
JMU is going to run with their running back Night
and Barnett their quarterback and beat down Troy, just like
Old Dominion did a couple weeks ago when they put
up three hundred and fifty one rushing yards against against
Troy here. So the spread is move. We mentioned on

(12:18):
Monday that it was probably going to move, and it did.
But we also talked about Troy in their losses, which
is why I don't like the total in this game. Right,
The tickets and cash areway on this over forty seven
and a half. It's a low total, but in those losses,
in three of the four losses that Troy has had,
they've scored ten points or fewer. So when they get beat,

(12:39):
they don't score on offense really at all. And JMU
has probably the best defense in the Sun Belt. So
for me, I'm going to go with JAMU over thirty
four and a half in the team total. I just
think this number is too big, and I think the
overs in question because I don't know how much Troy
scores in this game. So that's why I would lay

(13:00):
off both of those sides. But if you can't bet
the team total, I like thirty four and a half
as the over for JMU. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (13:06):
I actually really looked at that thirty four and a
half and I was deciding whether or not to take
that or to take this alt line and pay a
little more juice, and I ultimately went the ault line.
Specifically because while Troy has really fallen off towards the
back half the season under their quarterback Goose Crowder, since
making that switch, it has also sometimes led to dragging
some teams down in the mud. I don't think they

(13:27):
can necessarily do that against JAMU because they have a
top six rushing offense, but JAMU also a top five
total defense, so I don't think Troy's gonna score very
much in this game. I do think JM you probably
crosses that thirty four and a half line, honestly, But
like Troy right now, same strength to schedule as JMU
pretty much, and they're one hundred and twenty first in
rushing eighty third and passing seventy first.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
And total defense.

Speaker 1 (13:48):
So say what you want about the strength to schedule
for JMU, but at the same time, like they've had
the exact same thing and they are way worse of
a team in all metrics. And like jam you smoked
old dominion. We talked that on Monday sixty three, twenty seven.
I remember that game vividly. Else pregaming a wedding at
b Dubs that day with my fiance, so made sure
to have JMU locked and load on one of their

(14:10):
many many screens there. So Troy, they lost to ODU
three weeks ago, thirty three zero, as you pointed out.
So I think if JMU bogs like really wants to
impress the committee.

Speaker 3 (14:22):
That yeah, yeah, I love your thought process, they could
get the total themselves, right, they could really beat them down.

Speaker 1 (14:28):
And like you look at it, man, like, if they
win and Duke upsets Virginia, JMU could be heading towards
the college football Playoff, He's gonna make them.

Speaker 2 (14:36):
Duke was not ranked last night. Duke was not ranked.
Jam you was ranked.

Speaker 3 (14:41):
I like the fan fiction you're writing here, but I
don't think the committee is gonna put two six schools center.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
And they have to say, beating Virginia in the conference
championship game means enough to out Outdole the Sun Belt here, so.

Speaker 3 (14:52):
I think they would. So I'm just saying, yes, I
don't know. We may not get there, but I do.
I love your point about Look, JAMU wants to put
up points, right, They want to impress everyone, and they
want to beat their competition down real bad to look
great one more time at the tournament. Yes, that logic
is great. Also, JAMU second in time of possession this year, right,

(15:17):
so they like to wear out that defense, right, And
that's how Troy has made their money is with defense.
I think JAMU is going to run them over. I
think they're going to dominate time of possession and again
top ten. There's seventh in the nation in scoring in
the fourth quarter, James Madison. That is where the work
gets done towards this team total and the over. So
I just don't know if Troy's going to score it all.

(15:39):
That's my big question here.

Speaker 1 (15:41):
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Speaker 2 (16:11):
Using the promo code juice.

Speaker 1 (16:13):
Juice again this promo code Juice and activating your trial
on the upgrade screen. No line movement has come in
New Orleans, where a college football playoff bid is on
the line in the American Championship on a Friday night
at eight pm Eastern Time. The number twenty North Texas
Mean Green. They remain a two and a half point

(16:34):
favorite over the number twenty one at two Lane Green
Wave North Texas. Their starters should all be up for
this one. They do a slove injury though in the
defense is two D but who really doesn't at this
point in the season. For two Lane is just their
h wide receiver Bryce bro Hannon, who is questionable. We
from the BP projections are showing North Texas nearly as

(16:54):
a four and a half point favorite. So Boggs, have
you found anything to take you off? Eric Morris, Drew
Mestmaker and company.

Speaker 3 (17:00):
No way, No, the line didn't move, the toll didn't
move neither. To my opinion, here, we're sticking in North
Texas and laying in the points. The mean Green have
been a covering machine this year ten and two. Tulane
is five to six and one. But North Texas offense
is what does it for us here? Obviously, they're number
one in scoring in the country. They've had fifty two

(17:20):
plus points in five of the last six games. Quarterback
Drew Messeenmaker is number one in passing in number one
yards per attempt, fourth in touchdowns with twenty nine, and
only has four interceptions this year. True freshman running back
Caleb Hawkins is first with twenty three touchdowns this season.
He's seventh in rushing yards in twenty fifth in attempts.
Tulane has been strong against the run but miserable against

(17:43):
the pass. This year. Retzlov has had some big performances,
but this one I think is just going to be
likely too much in this game, So lay the points
take unt and this is another one that we have
rain in the forecast with light wins, which again leads
towards points.

Speaker 2 (18:00):
Yeah, I'm with you, man.

Speaker 1 (18:01):
I have been one of the few G five media
rankers over the past month or two who have had
North Texas in that one spot, right, because I mean
we were on them pretty early, right like we probably
started betting them, I'd say mid to late October when
we really started putting the team totals out there.

Speaker 2 (18:15):
So that's where I'm going.

Speaker 1 (18:16):
I'm gonna go with the North Texas team total over
thirty four and a half points. North Texas, to me,
they just have way too much firepower to be stopped
with their offense right now. Mess Maker leads the nation
and passing yards fourth and passing touchdowns with twenty nine.
They're wide receiver Young I know you're a big fan
of that cat as well. He's third in the country
and receiving yards first and receiving touchdowns. He's been excellent,

(18:38):
big play waiting to happen.

Speaker 2 (18:39):
And then they're running back Caleb Hawkins.

Speaker 1 (18:41):
This guy leads the AAC in rushing yards and the
country in rushing touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (18:45):
Tu Lane's defense For me, it's the passing defense.

Speaker 1 (18:48):
Right, They're one hundred and nineteenth through the air, so miserable.
Like I get that they have have had a tougher schedule, right,
But I don't know if you remember watching Josh McCown's
son on a Tuesday, I think was a Thursday and
Wednesday night some weekday for UTSA, carving them up for
three hundred and seventy yards, four touchdowns, forty eight points.

Speaker 3 (19:07):
So it was shocking. It was because I had money
on Tulane.

Speaker 1 (19:11):
Yeah, I was very bummed out about that one. Had
multiple units down on it. So I think if Tulane
has any shot to win, it's gonna come via a shootout.
I don't think they're stopping North Texas. It's just can
they put up enough points to keep up with them?
Maybe I think I'm still with you. I don't mind
laying the points or taking them on the money line
North Texas, but instead I'm just gonna go with what's
safer to me in the team total over and let's

(19:34):
go ahead and move forward to where it's gonna be
a rainy Friday night in Boise, Idaho, where the eight
and four Broncos take.

Speaker 2 (19:41):
On the ten and two UNLV ReBs.

Speaker 1 (19:45):
The a are currently three and a half to four
point favorites in the Mountain West Championship game. Un LV
they have their starting tight end vur Keys Gummas he
is questionable, Boise State their quarterback Maddix Mattson. He will
be back under center for the first times since November first,
and the Broncos also have their nose tackle Dean Washington

(20:05):
questionable coming. In the BP projections right now, we're showing
this line closer to one and a half points, so
actually some good value out there on the rebels.

Speaker 2 (20:13):
Is that where you're getting invested, mister Scott Bogman.

Speaker 3 (20:16):
Yeah, I mean we've had a lot of changes in
this one since the initial line came out. Right Madson
was announced as the starter. While we were recording on Monday,
the line flipped to Boise minus three and a half
and now we have an eighty percent chance of rain
in this one, and obviously some Boise. It's so very
cold as well on the blue turf, with all that
on the smurf turf. With all that being said, the

(20:37):
public is all over UNLVU and we show value that
way as well. Madson will certainly throw a wrench in
my love for UNLV, but my initial pick here has
shrunk a point and I'm gonna stick to it. This
is a UNLV team total over twenty six and a
half now. Boise State beat the breaks off UNLV earlier
this season. Right they put up fifty six points, but

(20:58):
UNLV in that game still had four hundred and seventy
six yards and put up thirty one points. Their quarterback,
Anthony Calandria, has led this squad to the twelfth best
scoring offense in the country, the grade twenty seventh according
to PFF on offense. The only G six teams that
are higher graded than UNLV are North Texas, James Madison
and USF. That's it so on offense, this team is very,

(21:22):
very good, and Boise State has played strong defense this season,
but they already have allowed thirty one new UNLV this season,
and the defense allowed thirty to Presno State twenty one
to Colorado State, which interests out of points, but Colorado
State is two to ten right now, and they only
scored twenty one or more in half of their games
six of their games, and they allowed twenty four to

(21:43):
Utah State last week as well. UNOV has a better
offense than all of those teams, So I'm going to
stick to the UNLV team total over twenty six and
a half in this one. I don't really like a
lean one way or the other in the game. The
overall total I think could be smashed as well, so
I would lean towards the game over as well, but

(22:03):
definitely going to take you know, be over twenty six
and a half points.

Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (22:07):
Shout out to Dan Mullins for everything he's done for
this team in his first year. Also, Calandra right, he
came into the ston a quarterback battle with alex Or
g Orgy ends up going down after week one, not
seeing him again, and Calandra just named Mountain.

Speaker 2 (22:21):
West Player of the Year. So two gratulations of the count.

Speaker 3 (22:24):
Bad did they look week one? Right? Who they played
like Idaho State and almost got beat? Yeah, they looked
I was unuserable, Yeah, week one. And to be in
the Mountain West Championship again is pretty amazing from what
they looked in week one. So Mullins done a great
job here.

Speaker 1 (22:39):
Yeah, I completely agree with you. Let's move forward, though, Boggs.
We have one more G five championship game and it
comes where we have a one and a half point
ticket that is now available in favor of the eight
and four Western Michigan Broncos over the seven to five
Miami Ohio RedHawks for the MAC Championship. This is coming
at four five Yield on noon Saturday, and we also

(23:03):
have Miami. They're coming in right now. They're linebacker corbyin
Hon Drew questionable. Western just their tight end two Kate
Conley questionable. They do rely on those tight ends pretty
heavily though, with their run heavy packages. The BP projections
like the Broncos by a field goal. So I'm down
on the one and a half. I was very happy
to see that today when.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
I woke up. So are you coming with me on
the squad right here? Boggs?

Speaker 3 (23:26):
I'm with you, man, and I'm fading the public on
both sides here of this one. As our numbers are,
I predicted it would drop and we are getting the
extra point for Western Michigan. I'm sorry, what did you say?

Speaker 2 (23:37):
You're taking here one and a half.

Speaker 3 (23:39):
You say, okay, yeah, we're fading the public, which is
surprising to me, Like I I was surprised. The public
is so on Miami. They've been a great team here,
and I think they're I like the under here. I
think Miami's offense was good enough to beat this dominant
w WMU defense With Finn but Goskowski in his second
career start, I'm good. I want to lean towards the

(24:00):
Western Michigan defense here. However, Miami defense is very good
as well, and they were able to hold WMU to
three hundred and sixteen yards and only seventeen points in
that first matchup. The plan on offense is boring and
clear for Western Michigan. Run the ball until you have
to pass. These teams are both very low in explosive
plays that both top forty in explosive plays allowed as well.

(24:24):
This should be a great defensive field position, gross type
of game. The only thing that's missing is weather because
they're playing in Ford field here, right, So I'm going
to go with the under here. I lean towards Western
Michigan as well. I think they win this game gross
slow scoring with that dominant defense. But I'm definitely going

(24:45):
to be on the under in this game, or we're
showing value that way as well. That has forty three
and a half is the total we've been on like
forty one and a half forty somewhere in that neighborhood.
It has not moved.

Speaker 2 (24:55):
Okay, Yeah, I.

Speaker 1 (24:56):
Mean I get why the public might be on Miami right.
This is a familiar tear to them. They've been in
tons of MAC championships over the last decade or so.
With Chuck Martin at the helm. This gotskowski kids. As
I said on Monday's show, he's got a little something right,
But I think he's gonna have to be pretty much
the entire show for them.

Speaker 3 (25:13):
I think he can have to put Buffalo in state.

Speaker 1 (25:16):
Yeah yeah, And like I think he's really gonna have
to put the team on his shoulders because WMU, Man,
they get after the opposing quarterbacks fourteenth in sacks per game,
and despite getting out of the gates usually pretty slow.
Like if you ever bet on Western Michigan, it's almost
sometimes a good thing to take them after kickoff live
if you're a lie better, because they usually get down right,

(25:37):
but then they libs yeah yes, and then they somehow
find their way back into the game, and then by
the fourth quarter they just start wearing on you late,
possessing the ball, leaning on that run game, and.

Speaker 2 (25:48):
Like I really like Brock Lowry.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
I like the running back Jaylen Buckley here, but they
also have some playmakers out there on the outside, like
Teleik Williams. They gave this guy a jet sweep last
week and he went the distance. I think he can
do it once again. And Western Michigan they killed my
Toledo Mac title future by coming back down thirteen zero
late in the third quarter earlier this season. I think
they went it back by getting the trophy for themselves

(26:11):
in this one.

Speaker 2 (26:11):
Let's hope, Let's hope, Let's go ahead.

Speaker 1 (26:16):
Let's get to the next game where the line has
dropped a point.

Speaker 2 (26:19):
In Jerry World.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
For the Big twelve Championship kicking off at noon on Saturday,
with the fifth ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders, they're favored
by twelve and a half points over the eleventh ranked
BYU Cougars, the Kugs. Right now, they have their ex
wide receiver Chase Roberts and their linebacker Max Adford. Questionable
Tech still somehow at full strength the BP projections, we're

(26:40):
showing this spread one hundred eight points, so massive value
right now on the Cougs. However, the system cannot take
into account the chaos then ensued this week in provo. Right,
you had all the happenings with Kolonie Sataki, the cookie
crumble money, all that good stuff coming in bogs. Call
me bitter, or call me someone who just wants to

(27:01):
back a country best eleven to one team against the spread.

Speaker 2 (27:04):
But I'm laying the twelve and a half with Tech.
What about you, man?

Speaker 3 (27:07):
Yeah, look, I'll call you a smart better right. You
watch the first game where they're won by twenty two points,
and that was their closest big twelve game, which we
talked about outside of that loss to ASU, of course
without Baron Morton. So look, nothing changes here to me,
and I'm still gonna be on the BYU under seventeen
and a half team total. That's what it is for me.

(27:28):
I really wish the public new when to get away
from BYU because they've been off of BYU the last
three weeks and I've been scooping up money. Yeah, on
BYU three weeks in a row. Now we get to
play Texas Tech again and I'm like, yeah, I've gotta flip.
I'm not gonna take BYU again. They just don't match
up well here. The run defense for Texas Tech has
been outstanding. They say, look, I think most people think

(27:49):
Texas Tech and they think Patrick Mahomes offensive team, blah
blah blah. Their offense is good, their defense is elite.
That is what has been winning Texas Tech games. David
Bailey one of the best defensive linemen in the country.
Jacob Rodriguez should be in New York with a Heisman
chance with the weak Heisman group this year. He has

(28:10):
been unbelievably good at linebacker this year. So I just
in this game, to me, I think we're gonna see
a problem with BYU scoring. Right. What they have done
in the Big twelve has been out physically everybody. That's
what it is. It's they're running down everybody's throat. They're
beating you with a run game. Your defense gets tired

(28:31):
and they break it open in the fourth quarter. This
is what BYU has been doing the whole year. That
ain't gonna work against Texas Tech. We saw it the
last time. I think we're gonna run into the same
problems in this game. Now. The defense played great for
BYU in that game. They held Texas Tech to five
field goals and only two touchdowns, which nobody else has
done they hit Baron Morton. He was only seventeen of

(28:54):
thirty in that game, and I think it was his
second lowest QBR for the entire season, and they were
held to two hundred and fifty five yards in that game.
BYU was in sixty seven rushing yards. They typically put
up two hundred, So I like the under in this
game overall, but my favorite bet is BYU under seventeen
and a half here.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
Yeah, I'm super cool with that sixty seven rushing yards
last time for the Cougars against Tech's top ranked rushing defense.
That's the difference for me in this one. And like
Tech only got beat once the season Bogs were, we
would think about them maybe a little differently if they
had a zero next to their name in the lost column, right,
and the only reason they lost Will Hammond was under
center and Sam Levitt diced them.

Speaker 2 (29:36):
Up for over three hundred yards.

Speaker 1 (29:37):
That's how I think you have to beat Texas Tech
through the air, and you have to play your A
plus game. With how crazy things got out there in
provo this week with Sataki, I just don't think BYU
will be up to that challenge.

Speaker 3 (29:49):
I mean, I'm not even considering that they haven't done
that all year. They win by running right. Yeah, so
I just don't think they have it in the past
game to compete with Texas Tech point for point, and
I just think Texas texts defense is too good to
be beat on the ground. So I don't know about
the spread we're showing value towards BYU. I don't want
to bet against BYU because they've been so good and

(30:11):
they showed well on defense in the last game, but
I don't think BYU moves the ball very well. Okay,
that's my ultimate takeaway there.

Speaker 1 (30:18):
We have a couple more games to give some picks
out for it, but first we also wanted to give
away some goodies and if you want a chance to
score this signed AJ Brown Philadelphia Eagles helmet for absolutely
free courteous of our friends over at Pristineauction dot com.
All you need to do is head to Bettingpros dot
com slash contest, complete the form either a go ahead
and download that free Betting Pros app, be leaver review

(30:40):
for the Betting Pros podcast, or see subscribe to our
social media handles. We're at Betting Pros on x and
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more actions you complete, the more entries you're gonna receive,
and we will of course announce a winner right here
on the channel, so make sure you'll ring the bell
so you could be alerted and we have new shows
up and to clean your prize if you are that

(31:00):
lucky winner. The spread as widened in the SEC Championship
game getting underway from Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta at
four pm Eastern time the number three Georgia Bulldogs. They
are now two and a half point favorites over the
number ten Alabama Crimson Tide UGA. They have their center
Drew Bobo and their running back Chancey Ballins listed as

(31:21):
questionable Bama right after he had his breakout game RB
one Jam Miller is questionable. Also, their RB two Kevin
Riley might not be up for this one as well.
The BP projections right now we are leaning towards the Dogs,
but only by half a point.

Speaker 2 (31:34):
So Boggs, how will you be playing this one?

Speaker 1 (31:37):
And I believe the last time these two teams matched up,
you win and got at a really bad beat on
the over between the two blue bloods.

Speaker 3 (31:44):
Yeah, yeah, Well, I think the Georgia. The Georgia Florida
game was my really bad beat in the over, but
this one probably was as well.

Speaker 2 (31:52):
Lots of points in the first half, I think in
that one.

Speaker 3 (31:55):
Yeah, yeah, Look this game. I don't think he'll be
right to bounce Mama for losing the conference championship game.
But BYU is sitting like if BYU beats Texas Tech,
which we both don't think is going to happen, that's interesting.
But if that happens and Bama loses this game, there's
a possibility that BYU skips in here. So there's a
lot of motivation for Alabama to win this game right now,
right Georgia needs to keep their bye. They have motivation

(32:18):
as well. I'm not trying to say that they're not
motivated to beat Alabama. Of course they are, sure, But
I just don't really like this game because of that
wrench that you throw in. And I still like Georgia here.
I know Bama won the first game in September, but
they have been more of a backing in late squad
to me from what I've watched from them. The win

(32:38):
and Georgia did wash away a lot of questions after
that FSU lost for Alabama fairly so, right, they responded
by winning that game. But Vanderbilt, they beat Vanderbilt and
a beat down, a tough road game against a surging
Missouri team. At that time, they won twenty seven and
twenty four, and I think they peaked when they beat
the Falls, right, but then they had that scare against

(32:58):
South Carolina. It's an impressive twenty to nine win against
LSU at home loss against Oklahoma. They beat the cupcake
in Eastern Illinois and fourth and goal against Auburn won
that that game, right like, they are backing in right now.
They are not peaking now. Look, they're still very good,
but they're not playing their best football that they've played

(33:19):
all year right now. So Georgia Tech and Florida when
Stockton could have gotten the cover for US. That's the
only one score games Georgia has played on this eight
game win streak, right, That's it. I like Georgia, the numbers,
like Bama. The motivation might be better a little bit
on the Bama side as well, but I don't know

(33:42):
how deep into the bag Kirby's gonna go. So the
total is a little wishy washy to me, as well,
I'm probably gonna stay away. I like Georgia in this game.
I think they're a better team than Alabama right now,
even though Alabama already beat them, and they may have
a little more motivating factors in this game to make
sure they secure their playoffs spot and don't get completely booted.
But they're gonna know when they take the field if

(34:04):
B WHYU loses, I think they're in even with the loss.
So I don't think you pushed Notre Dame in and
you don't push Miami. But I do think Georgia ends
up winning this game, So I'll lean towards Georgia here.

Speaker 2 (34:16):
Okay, yeah, I don't have a play in this one.

Speaker 1 (34:18):
It's really tough for me because I agree with you
that motivation definitely on the Alabama side. I also think
this is kind of the team that Ty Simpson really
can show out against, just because the fact that Jordia
doesn't really get after the quarterback right like Auburn was
getting after him last week. They have some really good
guys on that defensive front still for Auburn that were

(34:39):
playing inspired football last week, and I just don't think
Georgia currently has this.

Speaker 3 (34:44):
So neither of these teams rush the passer. Well, yeah,
they're both bad for what they've been historically at getting
after the passer.

Speaker 2 (34:52):
Yeah. Absolutely.

Speaker 1 (34:53):
I think the big thing for Alabama is like, can
jam Miller give them something? Can one of these running
backs be up?

Speaker 3 (34:59):
Really?

Speaker 1 (34:59):
Like that's the difference because UGA does have one of
the best rushing defenses in the country. That's not how
Alabama really beats you though, right, It's more through the air.
And also like there's gotta be a time where we
start getting Ryan Williams back involved. Like I understand like
he's had an okay season, but Boggs, if you would
have told me that Ty Simpson and Bama went on
this run and Simpson and Ryan Williams really wasn't the

(35:22):
part of it that we thought he was going to be.
He's definitely regressed, and I'm not really sure.

Speaker 3 (35:26):
What's going on in less than I think it's been
that way for a while.

Speaker 1 (35:30):
Maybe or or was he maybe just not always that
good in a couple of hot games last se year,
really really good last year.

Speaker 2 (35:39):
I'm just saying it's it's interesting. The fall off has been.

Speaker 3 (35:41):
Really it is, and you know it's gonna affect his
draft stock if he doesn't get back on it throughout
the playoffs here and next year.

Speaker 1 (35:48):
Yeah, he's got time, he's got time turning around. But
definitely an underwhelming season, especially for those who invested in him,
maybe in some futures markets or also in the CFF streets. Boggs,
let's go ahead, though, let's turn the page. There's been
no line movement and what's going to be an underwhelming
ACC Championship game by my standards. It's kicking off from
a Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte at eight pm

(36:10):
Eastern time the seven and five Duke Blue Devils. They'd
remain a three and a half point underdog against the
sixteenth rank Virginia Cavaliers. Duke has some defensive backs banged
up in the two D, but otherwise they're at full strength.
Everyone should also be up for the who's in this one?

Speaker 2 (36:25):
The BP rejections. Right now, we are giving UVA.

Speaker 1 (36:29):
By three and a half points, So this is another
spot maybe where you want to back the favorite.

Speaker 2 (36:34):
What do you think bugs?

Speaker 3 (36:36):
Yeah, look, I think that we saw this game played
three weeks ago, right, Uva beat Duke thirty four to seventeen.
Virginia had five hundred and forty yards, two hundred and
twenty four rushing yards. They SACKEDMENTSA four times and they
were minus one. And turnovers they had two to Duke's one,

(36:56):
and You're still had the ball for thirty six minutes
in that game. So we know the weird common opponent
thing is what put Duke in here. And they're not
gonna apologize anybody, but Duke versus Miami obviously would have been.

Speaker 2 (37:10):
A better Virginia versus Miami.

Speaker 3 (37:13):
Yeah yeah, I'm sorry. Virginia versus Miami would have been
a much better ACC Championship game.

Speaker 2 (37:18):
But that Georgia Tech.

Speaker 3 (37:19):
But that overtime, Yeah yeah, but that overtime loss. Smu
haunts Miami right now. Oh so, Duke has been a
great offense this season, and they have had some really
impressive performances Wake Forest. They got real bad forty six
and forty nine in those wins. But UVA is top
twenty five in scoring and in total defense. Duke has
been held to less than twenty points against the best

(37:42):
defenses they have played. Illinois held them to nineteen, Georgia
Tech held them to eighteen, UVA held them to seventeen.
Already this year. So the team total for Duke, can
you take a crack? Do you know what it is?
Have you looked yet?

Speaker 1 (37:55):
I have not, But based on how many points they're
scoring a game and the over a total of this game,
I'm gonna say probably, like is it twenty four and
a half?

Speaker 3 (38:05):
Twenty three, twenty six and a half. So we're gonna
go under that. We're gonna go under twenty six and
a half for them. You know, the team total is
twenty six and a half. I like the under Louisville,
FSU and NC State are the only teams to score
twenty seven plus against Virginia this year, having given up
more than twenty one and six straight games. Duke under
twenty six and a half in UVA minus three and

(38:26):
a half are the best that I like here.

Speaker 1 (38:28):
Okay, yeah, I'm cool with that. I don't have too
much to add on this. Chandler Morris has been really
really fun to watch. I've been, you know, glad to
be a part of this ride and get to watch
the Who's have a really historic season for the program.

Speaker 3 (38:40):
Right like if they only really got stopped on offense.
When Chandler Morris got hurt against Wake Forest, that was it.

Speaker 2 (38:46):
Yeah, is this the best Virginia team you've ever seen?

Speaker 3 (38:48):
Boggs, I don't know if it's the best Virginia team
I've ever seen. I've seen a lot of Virginia, but
is one of the best for sure, and it should
get them into the tournament with a win here.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
So okay, Well, hopefully they don't because I want the chaos.
I want the chaos, baby, let's see.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
I don't blame you. The chaos is fun, man.

Speaker 1 (39:05):
Let's go Manny Diaz. Let's go Manny Diaz. I'm here
for it, baby.

Speaker 2 (39:09):
Uh. Let's go ahead.

Speaker 1 (39:10):
Though, Let's round it out with the game of all
games here, and the spread is actually shrunk between these
two Juggernauts in the Big Ten Championship that kicks off
from the loud House that is Lucas Oil Stadium at
eight pm Eastern Time on Saturday night in primetime, the
top ranked Ohio State buck Guys. They have moved to
between a three and a half and four and a

(39:31):
half point favorite over the second ranked Indiana Hoosiers after
the line originally opened all the way at five and
a half points. I you. Currently they have their left
guard Drew Evans and their flanker wide receiver EJ. Williams Junior,
who are questionable. The Buckeys come in at full strength
for this one. The VP projections right now still don't
think that the movement was even enough, listing this closer

(39:53):
to a one and a half point game. So, Bogs,
what do you think about the money coming in on
this game so far?

Speaker 2 (40:00):
What do you think on the matchup as a whole?

Speaker 3 (40:02):
Yeah, look, these are probably the two best teams in
the country, right, Yeah, I think that a lot of
people have agreed on this. I think no matter who
wins this game. You know, Indiana wins, they go to one,
Ohio State goes a two, Ohio State wins, they are
stay at one in Indiana states at two. I don't
mind that at all. Right, town should be, town should be.

(40:22):
But I think we do know that Ohio State is
the best team in the country, right, Like, maybe Indiana's
number two, maybe they're not, but Ohio State is number one. Right.
They played one to one score game. As we mentioned
on Monday, that was Julian Sands's first start against number
one Texas to start the year, right, Like, one of

(40:42):
the best defenses in the country specifically at that point
they were playing much better on defense when everybody was healthy.
So they went on the road to Washington beat him
by eighteen. They went on the road to Illinois, beat
him by eighteen. Penn State at home beat him by
twenty four. They hold Texas, Ohio, Washington, Minnesota, was Cosin, Purdue, Ucla, Rutgers,
and Michigan all to ten points or less. This year.

(41:07):
Indiana has been awesome too. They're undefeated, obviously, but they're
seven and five against the spread. Ohio State is ten
one and one. Indiana had a close call against Iowa
and should have lost to Penn State, but the rest
of their schedule was on par with the Buckeyes. Right
So Indiana would be my pick right now for the
second best team in the country. But Ohio State just

(41:28):
no doubt, and they look more balanced on offense with
bo Jackson ripping it up recently as well. So I
just don't know how you bet against the Buckeyes until
someone gives them a scare or beats them, which I don't.
We haven't seen all year. They've played a pretty easy
schedule in terms of you know, they're big ten matchups here,

(41:50):
but I mean this is This is the best team
in the country, I think, and I'm just gonna bet
them until somebody beats them.

Speaker 2 (41:58):
Okay, that's fair, man. This one is so tough for me.

Speaker 1 (42:01):
Like, I don't know if I've seen two more even
teams square off ever, honestly in a big game like this.
Really Like Also, then you have two of the Heisman favorites.
You have Julian saying, who com is a cucumber back there?
I gotta say, man for this guy being a young
pop in his first action this season, He's been great.
And I love Fernando Mendoza's moxie too. He's a guy

(42:21):
doesn't get too high, doesn't get too low.

Speaker 3 (42:23):
It's my seedsman game. It could mean whoever wins could
be the Heisman winning would not be surprised.

Speaker 2 (42:29):
Absolutely one hundred agree.

Speaker 1 (42:30):
I also had a Jeremiah Love eighty to one ticket
from preseason that last week it got cut all the
way down to three to one, and I was like, oh, man,
are we gonna hit the long shot Heisman two years
in a row after being on sixty five to one.
Travis Hunter a year ago wasn't meant to be. He's
back at like twelve to one. I didn't get a
cash out opportunity either because of where I place it at,

(42:51):
so that was a bummer. But I'm really excited for
this one. I think it's two great head coaches. Say
what you want about sig Signetti, what he puts out
there and interviews, but I love the moxie from this
Western Pa guy. Also really excited for Ryan Day and
what's coming for him and his family after a massive
win in the game and now he can count of

(43:11):
continue his story on here.

Speaker 2 (43:13):
Yes, exactly, exactly.

Speaker 3 (43:14):
No more death threats to Ryan, don't don't relax too much.

Speaker 1 (43:17):
So yeah, yeah, let's get a fruit basket of this
guy's house with maybe after this game.

Speaker 3 (43:21):
I think losing the Michigan and winning the Natty or
beating Michigan and losing in the tournament, I.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
Think winning the Natty is more more important.

Speaker 1 (43:29):
Ohio State fans, y'all are nutty, so I can't I
can't say anything say this, but they.

Speaker 3 (43:34):
I am still warmed by wins over Oklahoma name like
I said at the beginning of the show, so not completely,
but I would rather have a national time.

Speaker 1 (43:43):
Yeah, I agree, It's going to be a long road
for me to get either a win over our rivals
or a national title.

Speaker 3 (43:51):
So at least the Steelers are bad, so you have that.

Speaker 2 (43:54):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (43:54):
All I want to say too, is Big Ben, screw
you for putting out into the universe Mike Tomlin to
Penn State. I don't need one of my problems to
go make my other problem worse, Like I don't need.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
I don't remember.

Speaker 3 (44:04):
Tomlin had rumors of going to Texas a couple of
years ago as well, before they hired Sark. So yeah,
they just put Tomlin wherever they want to in rumors. Whatever,
There's no there's no smoke to that fire. It's just
been running us mouth.

Speaker 1 (44:18):
I do love the football and podcast with Big Ben
and company. They did a nice job over there, Bogs.
Let's get out of here though with our podcast. And
what do you have for best bets this week?

Speaker 3 (44:29):
Yeah? Man, I mean there's a lot to pick from
in these conference championship games, but I think my favorite
bet is still U and LV over twenty six and
a half. I love that bet. They scored more points
than that in every single game they played this year.
You know, Boise States played good defense. I do know
that it's cold and rainy there, but it's not oppressive cold.
We saw this in the game last year as well.

(44:51):
I just like that game to be a little higher scoring.
And I think UNLV holds a ball for longer because yes,
Mattson is playing, but is he one hundred percent? Is
there no rusher knockoff? I just don't think so. So yeah,
I like you know, v team total over twenty six
and a half is my favorite bet this week.

Speaker 2 (45:06):
Okay, I love the Jacksonville State play.

Speaker 1 (45:08):
I have on the team total over, but I think
the most units I have on any play this week
is actually that James Madison alt minus twenty and a
half at minus one fifty. I think they're gonna go
out here, Bob Chesney and company, and they're gonna say, hey,
let's put this in Manny Diaz's hands, right, Let's make
the committee make a decision. Troy, in my opinion, is

(45:28):
by far the worst team in these championships. This weekend,
I think they're gonna play like it. Jam you buy
a million.

Speaker 2 (45:35):
My friends, That's where I'm going with.

Speaker 1 (45:37):
My best bet of the week. That is gonna do
for us, though, Folks. On this episode of The Betting
Pros College Football show still to come. Later on, we
have Bog's best bets and player props that will go
of course, greet your YouTube feeds and audio feeds on Friday,
so be on the lookout for that. Also, let us
know down in the comments below your favorite conference championship picks,
and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like

(45:59):
bund and subscribe to the channel. If you're new for
Scott Big Time Bogman, I'm Seth Wilcock take care of y'all.

Speaker 2 (46:05):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

Speaker 5 (46:07):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on.

Speaker 3 (46:12):
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Speaker 5 (46:14):
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College Football Conference Championships Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 892)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}College Football Conference Championships Betting Preview | Odds, Picks, & Predictions (Ep. 892)