January 13, 2026 • 33 mins
Join Seth Woolcock and Scott Bogman as they reveal their top picks and predictions for the CFP National Championship between the Miami Hurricanes and the Indiana Hoosiers!
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Intro - 0:00:00
College Football National Championship - 0:01:02
Pristine Auction Giveaway - 0:03:58
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals Reaction - 0:06:13
Hard Rock Bet - 0:15:36
College Football National Championship Early Picks - 0:17:53
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
All right, and welcome it to the Betting Pros College
Football Show. It all comes down to one final game,
the National Championship for win. The number one Indiana Hoosias
try to complete the first sixteen oh season in CFP
history with a win over the number ten Miami Hurricanes.
I'm the used home turf of our Rock Stadium. That
means one final opportunity to cash in. We'll help you
(00:24):
do that in this episode when we give you our
early picks and line movement predictions for the Natty. I'm
your host, Seth Wilcock, and back with me as a
man who's got to be feeling good today as his
Texas Longhorns have landed some absolute dogs in the transfer
portal over the last forty eight hours. Wide receiver Camp Coleman,
running back Hollywood Smothers. It's all good for Scott bog
and Baby Boggs. It's a season that I think when
(00:47):
we all anticipated this thing shaking out, we never saw
these two teams coming forward when we started this thing
in Dublin about one hundred and thirty six days ago.
How are you and what are the vibes like as
we head into this final showdown?
Speaker 2 (00:59):
I mean vibes great for me. We've got a playoff
game for our Steelers tonight. You know, the Longhorns pilfering
the Clinton like they do cam Coleman. And by the way,
Ryan Wingo was like the biggest recruiter of cam Coleman.
So I like that, Like Shadows get better as a team,
Hollywood smothers Rayley Brown or Sheene Biles stacking them up.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Man, I like it.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
But this game is you know, we knew Indiana was
good last year, but when they faced the top tier competition,
they got beat right.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
This year it's been the opposite.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
They've been beating the crap out of the top tier competitions, the.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
Top tier competition.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
They really do. Like that Ohio State game was a
hard fought win. Of course, Penn State the Penn State
was a really tough win. Eye what was a grinding win, right,
But I mean they beat the cheeses out of the
docks that was not even closed. It looked like the
Oregon Ohio State game from a year ago.
Speaker 5 (01:57):
Right.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
So, and I heard people we'll talk about Dan Lanning
and comparing in the James Franklin. He's thirty nine, bro,
he is thirty nine years old. He's not even forty yet.
I think Nick Saban won his first at like fifty
two or fifty three or whatever. So let's relax on
the dan line, right, But just a great performance by
this team. They are clean, they're efficient, and they are relentless.
(02:22):
So Miami won their game. It should have been much
larger margin to victory. They played a much better game
than I'll miss in my opinion. They dropped about four
or five interceptions, a couple drop balls by the wide
receivers as well, so I do think that that game
could have been a little different. But you know, we
knew from the jump when Miami beat Ohio State, you
(02:43):
knew they were national title contenders. And here we are
with them playing for the Natty and No SEC team
again three years in a row. So very interesting.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah, makes me smile as a big ten and G
five Stan, I'm very happy with that. And we are
going to break down those games that we did see
and you know, kind of talk about this game from
a fifty foot level, if you would, bogs where we
can really see what are the keys to success for
both of these.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
Squads to come out victorious.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Where we're at on any early leans or plays we've
already made, we're going to share those with you as well.
And before we fired up, a huge thank you to
everyone who's watched all season long, whether that's on the
VP YouTube channel or the audio feed. We are so
very grateful that we get to do this for a
living talk ball with all our friends out there like you, folks,
and it's only because of you that we do get
to do this. So as always, please do just one
(03:30):
more quick favorite give this video eight thumbs up if
you enjoy this type of content, and we know you
do because you're hanging around for the Nattie. And also
please subscribe to the channel if you're new. We don't
want you to miss a second of college football or
NFL betting coverage through the postseason. Stuff heating over there
up on the NFL side as well with Joey P. Boggs, ericson,
Matt parral Fits, a whole family getting invested over there.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
So a lot of fun things happening.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
And speaking of fun things, well, we have an absolute
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Speaker 4 (04:26):
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when new episodes are up and to claim your prize
if you are that lucky winner box We're gonna go
ahead and jump into the College Football Playoffs semi final reaction. First,
I have to get your take. Were you as shocked
that the Niners won that game as I was? I
was just disbelieve. I cannot believe that that just happened.
(04:51):
I mean, they're so banged up, man, what a coaching
job well.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Eric Hendricks made a giantic difference in that game. Number one.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah, I was like the middle of that defense got
way better by signing him.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
So that was a very good off the street line.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
But I mean, the Eagles have been slow and playing
at a bad pace and the offense has been underwhelming
the entire season. So, uh, to see them not put
up points and to see aj Brown choke in the
biggest moment of the season for him, you know, after
screaming at his coach was gratifying and also you know,
(05:24):
not surprising. So the Niners. Shanahan's one of the best
coaches in the NFL, so you can never really count
them out, even with injuries. So ken Rick's taking a
huge step up that perfectly time trick play. You know,
just the choke job that the Eagles had at home
there was you know, they were tired. It's been a
long run, so they did a week immediate from last season.
(05:45):
I think the whole team physically from that, you know,
going to the Super Bowl the year before. So yeah,
probably gonna need two by weeks during the NFL season here.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Yeah, it's getting that way for sure, and uh, yeah,
make sure you guys are celebrating that forty nine ers
win with a potential add of a Ricky Piersol San
Francisco forty nine ers helmet. Today, we want to hear
from the faithful and even the dirty bird fans that
are maybe morning in your loss. Make it a little
bit better, add some some memorabilia from the opposing team.
Let's move forward though to the semi final reaction. We
(06:16):
had the number ten Miami Hurricanes. They were trading blows
back and forth with the number six ole Miss Rebels
all night long in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, winning thirty
one to twenty seven. I had a lot of people
texted me during this game who I wouldn't necessarily consider
big college football fans, Bog saying, this is one of
the best games I've seen in a long time.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
And was it ever? Man seven lead changes.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Miami got out in front early, was dominant off the
rip in the first quarter, and then it was ole
Miss running back Kuwan Lacy cashing our overprop on a
seventy three yard house call, So you'd love to see that. Also,
we had ole Miss score unanswered three times at the
end of the first half through the fourth quarter, but
they were all field goals, right they couldn't cash it in.
Their red zone offense is usually very, very strong, but
(06:58):
then it went from to Tony. They scored with five
to go. Sham Bliss, he countered with three minutes to go.
Looked like it was finally gonna be the old most
troubles in the National Championship game.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
But not so fast. Carson Beck says.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
He runs one in from out three yards eighteen seconds left,
which honestly was enough time for Shambliss to make it scary,
but not enough time for him to make another game
winning touchdown. Mark Fletcher went for a buck thirty three
for the Canes. We also had mal Chai Cone Tony
doing his things ninety two total yards and a touchdown,
but Keilan marrying this guy, this wide receiver oftentimes viewed
(07:31):
as the third piece of this Miami pass game, was really.
Speaker 4 (07:34):
A stud down stretch.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Seven receptions, one hundred and fourteen yards and a touchdown bogs.
The biggest difference though, to me in this game was
Miami was eleven for nineteen on third downs, two for
two on fourth down, almost two for ten on third downs,
and I really thought that this field was gonna be slick,
and it was I think that part of my handicapping
was correct. We saw the pass rush for the Canes
really be neutralized. Messador banged up in and out of
(07:56):
the lineup. But Miami just dominated an in time possession
right forty one minutes. I mean, they were just going
on these long, sustained drives. Even if they were going
for a field goal, they were taking time off the clock,
which you could tell right off the rip or miss.
They did not want that because they wanted the ball first.
They wanted to go at a quick pace, and that
kind of bit them in the butt after all. So
what are your takeaways from this first game that we
(08:18):
saw on Thursday night?
Speaker 2 (08:19):
You know, the only thing that wasn't dominated in this
game was the score because I you know, like you said,
the efficiency for Miami. Now, they did also have ten penalties,
which you have got to clean up. You are not
winning a game with ten penalties against Indiana, right, So,
but did you see the time of possession in this
game seth.
Speaker 4 (08:38):
Forty minutes forty one minutes?
Speaker 2 (08:39):
It's absurd in Miami's favor. They dropped at least three interceptions, right,
and two fumbles also did not go their way in
terms of bounces, so this should have been a Miami drubbing.
They own time possession, they had chances for turnovers, but
they didn't take advantage of the mistakes that all mismade,
(09:02):
and they let all miss hang around and take the
lead late.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
It took a comeback.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
It took the best drive of Carson Beck's career to
end up winning that game because they did not take
advantage of those mistakes. So, you know, should have been
a dominant performance by the Hurricanes. This is kind of
the game that we saw going the whole way, but
it did kind of seem at the end. I was like, man,
maybe Seth was right, Maybe this team is destined because
(09:28):
this is a crazy valiant comeback at the end here,
but the defense just could not hold up and Carson
Beck ended up running one in. And Carson Beck, he
had some drops from his guys in that game as well,
so I think he could have had a much better
at least stat line if some of those had come down.
But to a little too vanilla on offense for me
(09:48):
to like. And they absolutely did not take advantage of
the mistakes that all mismade. So they're lucky to be
moving on here. But this was a dominant performance. It
could have been a drop if they had taken advantage
of those.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
Yeah, I'm with you there, Bogs.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
And it's a little like it's a little upsetting because
sometimes I hear in the comments like Seth, you're always
drinking way too much juice from always taking these alt lines,
and I get it. I was on the three and
a half, the key number I went in for the
Ole miss ReBs, and of course four was the number
I got burned on the hook there says like another
opportunity where I'm like, I should have bet down the number, right.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
I mean both teams miss field goals. Yeah, yeah, you know.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Even though Ole missus field goal kicker. That guy is
an absolutely I mean he was a banker yardist.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
What would have been the Steelers too, maybe if Bogs
uh bozz, Yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Did not that. I'm sure you saw that.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Oh yeah, I did see that. I did see that
that extra point. Yeah, So that was scary. But on
the other side of things, Tho Bogs the number one
Indiana Hoosiers. They beat down the number five Oregon Ducks
fifty six twenty two in the Chick fil A Peach
Bowl on Friday night.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
And with what a great game we got on not
so much of the case on Friday right.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
Three turnovers put the Ducks in a thirty five to
seven hole by halftime.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
That was really all she wrote at that point.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
And for the second straight game, Fernando Mendoza had more
touchdowns five than he did in completions three. This guy's
playing at an all time level right now. Five different
skilled players found paydirt for the Hoosiers, Kaylin.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
Black, elijahs Torot.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
We also had Charlie Becker, the roommate of Mendoza, Omar
Cooper Junior, and EJ. Williams Junior, all finding the end zone.
I you had no turnovers eleven for thirteen on third down, Bogs.
Is this the best coach team you've ever seen in
college football? Because they just seemed so dang button up,
And you know, I don't take anything away from the
(11:44):
job that coach Signetti has done with this team, because
it is absolutely amazing how well and how.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
Motivated they are ready to go each and every week.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Man, I have I think you have to say they
are at least one of the best coach teams.
Speaker 4 (11:55):
Can you name another? So who would you put above
them for sure.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
I don't know that.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Yeah, but Alabama had way more five stars, right, so
you are afforded more mistakes from those teams when you
have more athleticism, right, So it definitely has to be
one of them. I mean, you think of those Nebraska
and how disciplined those teams were when they're running the
triple option to be able to win a national title
with that type of an offense, right, So, like you think,
(12:23):
but you have to go either that far back, you know,
or no one else matches them. It's it's one of
those too. So incredibly well coached team. But also the
bounces went their way. You open with a pick six, right,
so you open with a pick six, you get the fumbles.
Those bounces didn't have to go Indiana's way, and there's
(12:44):
a couple that did not go that that. It just
felt like they got every break they could. Now you
get every break you can by being well disciplined, by
putting yourself in the right position, by whooping that offensive
line and getting after more. So they got the bounces
and had the dominant win. Miami didn't get the bounces
(13:05):
and had to win in the last second. So I
do think that this game is going to be closer
than people are making it out to be. I think
we've seen money come pouring in on the user side
right already. But I still think Indiana is the team
to beat.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
I like them to win as.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Well, so I don't it's not gonna be a beat
down like this, even though I know a lot of
people think that Oregon was a better team than Miami
and that that is possible, but they definitely did not
play the best game. So this was a stomping. This
was a scary looking team into the two team. The
two games in the playoffs, they've won thirty eight to three.
(13:46):
They rolled the tide and then they smacked the dust.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
We're talking about man, I mean yeah, and I will
say for Oregon too.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
No Winnington being somewhat of a surprise late. I mean
he did.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
I don't want call the scratch because he did play,
but he played what one thing he shouldn't play one play.
I think he played the first the first player, the
first or second play. I don't even know if he
took a carry. He then go out of that game. Yeah,
So I mean, so that was a bummer. And then
they also lost Davidson the RB two had kind of
been a smash mouth back for him, so they're really
having to turn to some of that inexperience in the backfield,
which caused one of that early fumbles from Dante More
(14:23):
that gave the Hoosiers an instant goal and go opportunity.
So that was kind of, I think a big deciding
factor as well. And got to shout out the alma
mater two. I don't know if you heard it box
how close you're listening to the broadcast, but they shouted
out Indiana University, Pennsylvania. Iup where sig Signetti comes from.
He took a job there. He was making three hundred thousand,
(14:43):
they were telling us at Alabama, and then he took
a pay cut of to.
Speaker 4 (14:46):
One twenty to go to Indiana.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
His assistant coaches that were still with him were making
eight and six thousand dollars at the time, living on
government assisted food stamps. So I mean, what a story
this has been, what a run this is And to
his dad, Frank Signetti Field, that is the field that
is still there at iup. My freshman year, I got
to see Signetti up close and what he was doing
(15:08):
with our program out there, so what a run this
has been to watch him kind of firsthand, and uh,
very thankful for it, Bogs, and very thankful.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
That you were on Google about thirty.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
Yes, sir, well, I wasn't allowed to.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Uh they didn't need any more sports writers my freshman year,
so I only I got to write.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
I was a culture writer. That's I got right about
the music scene.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
So yeah, unfortunate, but uh, we'll let bygones be bygones now.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
And uh, speaking.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
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Speaker 1 (17:53):
AYU comes into this one off the Big Ten Championship
win a few weeks ago. They now beat Alabama and
or in blow up fashion to get the fifteen and
oh straight up ten and five ats as well. Miami,
they got into the dance as in that large bid,
Notre Dame probably wishing that was them. Right they've advanced,
though the Caynes have to thirteen and two straight up
(18:13):
ten and five ats, and the line opened for this
game bogs right at seven and a half, that key
number there if you won in Miami, but it's already
been bought up to eight points at some books. I
U minus three hundred on the money line Miami plus
two sixty five to win this game outright. The total
remains at forty eight and a half points after opening
there right now. On the injury front for Indiana, Edge
(18:34):
Stephen Day likely remains out. He was injured if you remember,
back in the Big Ten Championships celebration.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Also, we did see Edge McKay kamara.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
He was banged up late in the Semis, but I've
seen nothing on the internet that is questioning his availability
out there, so I'm thinking he is gonna be good
to go for Miami.
Speaker 4 (18:52):
Meanwhile, it's not so simple.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
They have defensive lineman Donta Simpson, who has hit the portal.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
He's head to Miszoo.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
We also have one of their top defense of tackles
and run stuff for Amaud Moten Junior. He was injured
in that Fiesta Bowl game. Was trying to give it
a go, could not. We did see Edge a key messador.
He was in and out of the lineup in the Semis,
got his.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Arm falling on Recredly.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Yeah, so it looks like he came back in he
got a break, so he should be up for this one.
Also good news for Miami as well. Bogs on the
injury front cornerbacks to Mary Brown and oj Frederice. They
were held out of the Semis. Frederic was active, but
just they held him out they didn't need him. They
will both be back for the Natti's what we're hearing
right now from some Miami pages and running back Mark Fletcher,
(19:36):
though he does have the flu, and this is something
that Christa Ball has quoted been quoted on. He's worried
about this maybe spreading throughout the locker room. So maybe
some non healthy players, not in the way we usually
think in injuries, but just in terms of you know,
immune system, feeling yourself at one hundred percent, Mark Fletcher
and maybe some other Miami players. So something to keep
in mind. There BP projections right now. We have Indiana
(19:58):
winning this game by over ten points. We also love
the over closer to fifty five and a half points.
The public right now eighty five percent of tickets, ninety
two percent of the cash is on IU, and seventy
nine percent of the cash is on the over bogs.
What are your early leaves for this last opportunity to
bet live college ball games until August.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Yeah, this one is going to be closer I think
than Like I said, the public gives it credit, but
I still think it's going to be an Indiana when
that is my initial reaction here. You know, we saw
last week Miami dominate time of possession forty one to
twenty two. They won this game even with ten penalties,
(20:38):
even being minus one in the turnover department. You know,
they only allowed all miss to score two touchdowns and
held them to five field goal attempts and they made
four and missed one. And it was just it was
the opposite right for Indiana. They got the turnovers, they
were eleven and fourteen on third downs. Doza showed off
the legs. As you mentioned, he was seventeen to twenty
(20:59):
more touchdown and incompletion. So I do think because we
saw the bounces go the Hoosiers way, we didn't see
Miami go that way. The difference in this game is
a little overblown. But I still think this could be
a double digit win by the Hoosiers here, right, So, Indiana,
they're not going to be whiffing on those tackles and
the screen passes like Ole miss was. Becky's done a
(21:22):
great job of making of not making that massive bad mistake,
right he you know, rolled right down that field.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
Yeah, he has been poised in the biggest moments, which
has always really been Carson Beck's I think biggest question
mark around him.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
Right absolutely.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
I mean that's the reason why Georgia fans wanted him gone,
But he has spent the whole season. I text you
after the game, I'm like, I think Carson beck might
actually be pretty good, right, Like, it wasn't his fault
that they won this game. He didn't do anything absolutely
amazing here, but he made the plays when he needed
to lose the game.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
He didn't lose him the game.
Speaker 2 (21:55):
He scored when they had to and It's not his
fault that his guys dropped the ball number one couple
times and his defense didn't come up with any of
those timely interceptions. So I think Miami won this game
by more than the final score.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Is all I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Indiana is not gonna be whiffing on those tackles like
Ole Miss did back is probably gonna have a turnover
in this game because Indiana turns over everybody, and the
Hoosias are just so disciplined. Second scoring defense, second rushing defense,
third and run D grade and tackle grade Indiana's first
and turnover marchs and fifth and penalties for game eighth
in opponent's third down conversion percentage right, And we've seen
(22:34):
Miami really lean into the run in the playoff, and
as you mentioned, Mark Fletcher has the flu right now.
So against A and m it was twenty one pass
attempts for Miami, twenty seven rush attempts against Ohio State
twenty six pass attempts, thirty five rushing attempts. Right all
miss thirty seven pass attempts, fifty rush attempts because they
had the ball for forty one minutes. So I just
(22:55):
for me, how are you gonna run into the teeth
of this Hoosia's defense, let anybody run on them all year.
Carson Beck is going to have to make plays for
this team to win the game. And part of the
reason that he's been so good at holding it on
the ball, keeping the possession is because he doesn't make
those take those big deep shots downfield. Is a dot
has been lower this season than it was last year
(23:17):
at Georgia, and because of that, you know, the game
is played within a smaller frame, which makes it easier
for Indiana. Oregon average one hundred and ninety eight point
six rushing yards per game. Indiana allowed them ninety three.
Alabama had twenty three rushing yards against Indiana. Ohio State
in the Big Ten title game. They average one hundred
(23:38):
and fifty four point four yards rushing all year. They
had fifty eight rushing yards against the Hoosiers. Now, look,
these numbers aren't perfect because you do count sackyards in
the rushing stats, which is but.
Speaker 4 (23:48):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, but I hate that. I do hate.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
It's just a dumb thing. They should give it of it,
so that does count here. So it's not one hundred
percent perfect. But those rushing yards that those teams got
also count the sack yards they account for that. Yeah,
so you know this team has been so good at
stopping the run, Carson bec has to make big throws.
He's gonna have to make throws down the field. The
old line for the Kines has been flawless, but they
(24:12):
have to The defensive line, excuse me, has been flawless,
but they have to tackle better.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
They have to have fewer penalties.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
I just think in this game, for the Hurricanes to
win it, even at home, you're asking them to have
a perfect game, and we saw a damn near perfect
game from the Hoosiers against Oregon.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Right.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
I think they're more likely team to have the perfect
game and the better setup. So I'm gonna take Indiana.
I think Miami's defense keeps them in it, so I'll
roll with the under as well in this but I'm
gonna be laying the points and taking the Hoosiers unless
this line gets out to over ten points, which I
just do not. I don't think is gonna move much
from where seven and a half. I think seven and
(24:52):
a half is gonna be the line.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
Okay, So Bog's on that Indiana minus seven and a half, right,
now at minus won ten odds, and then the under
forty eight half at minus one oh eight. I'm gonna
do what I usually do. I'm gonna drink the juice.
Get to that key number of six and a half.
With the Hoosiers, I'm gonna go minus one sixty three
right now. I'm gonna wait for a boost because, as
we've read in the hard Rock promo, we know them,
we know all these other books are gonna be putting
(25:15):
out some different promos you can get invested with. So
I'm gonna wait for a hopefully a fifty percent boost.
Take that down something more drinkable, like a minus one thirty.
Speaker 4 (25:22):
I'm gonna do it that every book I can.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
And the reason I want to do that box is because,
like you have to play a perfect game to beat Iu, right,
I mean, how many times have we said that this
is a team First in turn andover margin as you said,
one point four per game, fifth and penalties per game
as well? Are the Hooters three point seven six in
time possession and sacks per game plus third in explosive
plays as well, Miami. They are worse than I you
(25:44):
in pretty much all those categories, but they are respectful
in those categories, right, the one that they aren't bogs
that I don't know if you can correct, because it
seems like whether it's this team or the cam Woard
team a year ago or previous Miami teams like when
Van Dyke was there and stuff so bad penalties, so
indiscipline one hundred and fourth at seven per game. So
(26:05):
I think I also am kind of with you that
I'm leaning towards that under because I think that there's
an opportunity there because both these teams are one hundred
and twenty fifth plus in pace, right, and like they
love to do the same thing to each other where
they just like bleed half the quarter with these long drives.
Like ye, Miami, that's how they took the wind out
of Ohio State Sales.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
That's how they.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
Won the game against ole Miss is they were going
on these seven eight minute drives. Yeah, they might result
three points, but it's still good enough for them. And
that's what the Hoosiers have done. I mean, they didn't
do that as much against Oregon because they.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Didn't really need they need to, But when you have
ten yards to go and you're getting defensive scores, right,
don't need it right, And.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
I will say, like, as we kind of mentioned at
the top two, like Mendoza and I, you have struggled
a little bit against some of these other elite.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
Pass rush teams.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Penn State, we know the pass rush they have, Iowa
always very tie up in defensive raidings and Ohio State, right,
So I think maybe that can actually keep I you
and Check a little bit more than what Alabama and
what Oregan has been able to because I don't think
either of us were necessarily super scared of the Oregon
or the Alabama pass rush, right, Like, that's not where
(27:14):
I think really the strength of those defenses are.
Speaker 4 (27:17):
Specifically Oregon.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
I more thinking about their lineback in court, right, So yeah,
I think to me, it's gonna probably be that Indiana
minus six and a half. Check back with us later
in the week to see our official plays, but I'm
definitely gonna have some Indiana minus six and a half
on the card and then box. I don't know if
it's like whether we tease this up and I put
it in a teaser and just take like a ridiculously
high number to go under, or if I just bet
(27:38):
the under, or maybe it's like I've seen Miami floating
around there at twenty and a half points, but that
doesn't feel as great like I was thinking maybe i'd
get like a twenty four and a half on their
team total, because as we saw the Ducks last week,
they backdoored a lot of people who were on the
Ducks under. I think they're under was also twenty and
a half in that game, and I know a lot
of people in the community got back doored on that.
Speaker 4 (27:57):
Like with like a couple of seconds left and it
was a bit really bad.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Yeah, that one, That one's rough, right, But I think
I think I'm gonna go. I think it might be
what is uh? Do we know what Indiana's team total
is yet? I haven't seen it, so I can pull
that back up. I can pull that back up.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
But I imagine if if we're looking at twenty and a
half points for uh for Miami, here's probably gonna be
right around twenty seven. Twenty eight and a half for
the Hoosiers is probably where it's gonna come in at.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Yeah, I think I'm definitely taking the under for Miami then,
just because of what Indiana has done to everybody, right
the twenty two to Oregon, I think is might that
might be the most they've given up all year. I know,
the twenty four to Penn State, I think is the
most points they've given up all year.
Speaker 3 (28:41):
Right.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Also, I put in a short last week Bogs, they've
only allowed one quarterback to have more than one passing
touchdown in a game. They've coming into last week had
six allowed passing touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
In the entire game. That is a crazy, crazy number.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
So yeah, just the discipline, man, Like you know, I
guess maybe last year they had the same discipline. You
could outwill them, you could out athlete them. I don't
think he can do it this year.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
So twenty eight and a half, twenty nine and a half, right,
like I put it. Put okay, it's sixteen total.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Yea.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
The final that I feel like I'm looking at is
thirty one seventeen, right, like everyone seventeen. That's so you
have any went of by two touchdowns. I think that
the numbers forty eight and a half, right, So you're
still under forty eight and a half.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
So that is kind of what I'm looking at. It
could be okay, twenty four to.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Seventeen, though, if it's twenty four to seventeen in Indiana
doesn't score late, then you got your cover at six
and a half. Right, you know that that's where the
juice comes in for something like that, but you know
it could easily be twenty seven and fourteen as well,
so at a field goal at the end.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
So and Bogs, you're not expecting a ton of line
movement on either the total or the spread this week,
despite all the money that it is coming on.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Maybe the total moves out right. I think the total
could move.
Speaker 4 (29:58):
Out, but may we wait? If we want the total,
then yeah.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
If you want to take the under, yeah, go ahead
and wait, because I do think that that could move.
I don't think the line changes. I think you want
it just over a touchdown because you know, you want
people to try to drink the juice to get it
to six and a half. So I think the seven
and a half number is good. If we do see
a move, it's going to be eight and a half.
I don't think it comes back down.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
So I don't think so either.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
And you know, I feel like a lot of people
are going to say, well, Miami has a home game.
Miami has a home game. Not really, you know, if
you saw what was happening in Atlanta. Everyone that I've
listened to that was there said it was ninety ten.
Indiana fans have been waiting for.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
I told him so, but I knew the IU is gonna.
I didn't think it'd be ninety ten, though, I thought
it would be more like seventy thirty twenty, right.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
I know so, And the prices have surged once the
Hoosiers were in there. It like the cheapest ticket right
after that game was thirty five hundred dollars for nos So,
you know, I think it's going to be a pretty
even crowd. You get the local contingency of Miami. It's
not gonna be quiet. But the Hoosiers have traveled the
(31:08):
entire postseason, so I think they'll do it again.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
Just like a moment in time reflection on how much
the Hoosier hype is going. You can get a Fernando
Mendoza base bowman chrome university football card, just a base card,
nothing special about it. It's going for anywhere from twenty
to thirty dollars. That's more than most autographs are going
for right now. Bogs like that is where we are
at with this hype for this kid and for the
IU Hoosiers.
Speaker 4 (31:32):
And you and I were just out here spoonfeed.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Yeah, we're part of the problem.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
But you know, look, this is Mendoza, this is we
were not sitting here, what do you say, one hundred
and thirty six days ago thinking that, oh, for sure
it's gonna be the Big ten versus the ACC that
means Miami versus Indiana.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Nobody had that.
Speaker 1 (31:54):
Yeah, so I was on their team total over nine
and a half wins, and I felt really good about that.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
For Indiana.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
Yeah, they know I have a championship ticket and they
were sitting out there twenty five forty to one. At
some books, I've seen people post some preseason Miami tickets
sixty sixty five to one, So congrats if those are
your you folks who are having those great bets.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
And a reminder, you can also track your bets.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
You can stay accountable and level up by downloading the
free Betting.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
Pros app today.
Speaker 1 (32:19):
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dot com slash Premium.
Speaker 4 (32:50):
Bog's great stuff today.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
As always, my friend that is going to do it
for us though on this early lines episode of the
Betting Pros College Football Show still to come later this
week on both the VP YouTube channel and the audio feed.
Our Betting Guide episode will give you our official loss Bogs.
We'll also have his top player props for the Natty.
Also have a player prop short dropping on Saturday on
the YouTube channel as well. In the meantime, let us
(33:13):
go down to the comments below your top early picks
for the National Championship Game. We want to hear from you,
and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like
bund and subscribing to the channel if you're new for
Scott Bob and I've said with Wilcock, take care of y'all.
Speaker 5 (33:25):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
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Speaker 4 (33:39):
Also subscribe to our
Speaker 5 (33:40):
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
All right, and welcome it to the Betting Pros College
Football Show. It all comes down to one final game,
the National Championship for win. The number one Indiana Hoosias
try to complete the first sixteen oh season in CFP
history with a win over the number ten Miami Hurricanes.
I'm the used home turf of our Rock Stadium. That
means one final opportunity to cash in. We'll help you
(00:24):
do that in this episode when we give you our
early picks and line movement predictions for the Natty. I'm
your host, Seth Wilcock, and back with me as a
man who's got to be feeling good today as his
Texas Longhorns have landed some absolute dogs in the transfer
portal over the last forty eight hours. Wide receiver Camp Coleman,
running back Hollywood Smothers. It's all good for Scott bog
and Baby Boggs. It's a season that I think when
(00:47):
we all anticipated this thing shaking out, we never saw
these two teams coming forward when we started this thing
in Dublin about one hundred and thirty six days ago.
How are you and what are the vibes like as
we head into this final showdown?
Speaker 2 (00:59):
I mean vibes great for me. We've got a playoff
game for our Steelers tonight. You know, the Longhorns pilfering
the Clinton like they do cam Coleman. And by the way,
Ryan Wingo was like the biggest recruiter of cam Coleman.
So I like that, Like Shadows get better as a team,
Hollywood smothers Rayley Brown or Sheene Biles stacking them up.
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Man, I like it.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
But this game is you know, we knew Indiana was
good last year, but when they faced the top tier competition,
they got beat right.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
This year it's been the opposite.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
They've been beating the crap out of the top tier competitions, the.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
Top tier competition.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
They really do. Like that Ohio State game was a
hard fought win. Of course, Penn State the Penn State
was a really tough win. Eye what was a grinding win, right,
But I mean they beat the cheeses out of the
docks that was not even closed. It looked like the
Oregon Ohio State game from a year ago.
Speaker 5 (01:57):
Right.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
So, and I heard people we'll talk about Dan Lanning
and comparing in the James Franklin. He's thirty nine, bro,
he is thirty nine years old. He's not even forty yet.
I think Nick Saban won his first at like fifty
two or fifty three or whatever. So let's relax on
the dan line, right, But just a great performance by
this team. They are clean, they're efficient, and they are relentless.
(02:22):
So Miami won their game. It should have been much
larger margin to victory. They played a much better game
than I'll miss in my opinion. They dropped about four
or five interceptions, a couple drop balls by the wide
receivers as well, so I do think that that game
could have been a little different. But you know, we
knew from the jump when Miami beat Ohio State, you
(02:43):
knew they were national title contenders. And here we are
with them playing for the Natty and No SEC team
again three years in a row. So very interesting.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah, makes me smile as a big ten and G
five Stan, I'm very happy with that. And we are
going to break down those games that we did see
and you know, kind of talk about this game from
a fifty foot level, if you would, bogs where we
can really see what are the keys to success for
both of these.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
Squads to come out victorious.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Where we're at on any early leans or plays we've
already made, we're going to share those with you as well.
And before we fired up, a huge thank you to
everyone who's watched all season long, whether that's on the
VP YouTube channel or the audio feed. We are so
very grateful that we get to do this for a
living talk ball with all our friends out there like you, folks,
and it's only because of you that we do get
to do this. So as always, please do just one
(03:30):
more quick favorite give this video eight thumbs up if
you enjoy this type of content, and we know you
do because you're hanging around for the Nattie. And also
please subscribe to the channel if you're new. We don't
want you to miss a second of college football or
NFL betting coverage through the postseason. Stuff heating over there
up on the NFL side as well with Joey P. Boggs, ericson,
Matt parral Fits, a whole family getting invested over there.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
So a lot of fun things happening.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
And speaking of fun things, well, we have an absolute
gem for you today if you want to score this
signed Ricky here saw San Francisco forty nine ers mini
helmet for free. I could use that after betting on
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(04:15):
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Speaker 4 (04:26):
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you turn all those notifications so you could be alerted
when new episodes are up and to claim your prize
if you are that lucky winner box We're gonna go
ahead and jump into the College Football Playoffs semi final reaction. First,
I have to get your take. Were you as shocked
that the Niners won that game as I was? I
was just disbelieve. I cannot believe that that just happened.
(04:51):
I mean, they're so banged up, man, what a coaching
job well.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Eric Hendricks made a giantic difference in that game. Number one.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah, I was like the middle of that defense got
way better by signing him.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
So that was a very good off the street line.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
But I mean, the Eagles have been slow and playing
at a bad pace and the offense has been underwhelming
the entire season. So, uh, to see them not put
up points and to see aj Brown choke in the
biggest moment of the season for him, you know, after
screaming at his coach was gratifying and also you know,
(05:24):
not surprising. So the Niners. Shanahan's one of the best
coaches in the NFL, so you can never really count
them out, even with injuries. So ken Rick's taking a
huge step up that perfectly time trick play. You know,
just the choke job that the Eagles had at home
there was you know, they were tired. It's been a
long run, so they did a week immediate from last season.
(05:45):
I think the whole team physically from that, you know,
going to the Super Bowl the year before. So yeah,
probably gonna need two by weeks during the NFL season here.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Yeah, it's getting that way for sure, and uh, yeah,
make sure you guys are celebrating that forty nine ers
win with a potential add of a Ricky Piersol San
Francisco forty nine ers helmet. Today, we want to hear
from the faithful and even the dirty bird fans that
are maybe morning in your loss. Make it a little
bit better, add some some memorabilia from the opposing team.
Let's move forward though to the semi final reaction. We
(06:16):
had the number ten Miami Hurricanes. They were trading blows
back and forth with the number six ole Miss Rebels
all night long in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, winning thirty
one to twenty seven. I had a lot of people
texted me during this game who I wouldn't necessarily consider
big college football fans, Bog saying, this is one of
the best games I've seen in a long time.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
And was it ever? Man seven lead changes.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Miami got out in front early, was dominant off the
rip in the first quarter, and then it was ole
Miss running back Kuwan Lacy cashing our overprop on a
seventy three yard house call, So you'd love to see that. Also,
we had ole Miss score unanswered three times at the
end of the first half through the fourth quarter, but
they were all field goals, right they couldn't cash it in.
Their red zone offense is usually very, very strong, but
(06:58):
then it went from to Tony. They scored with five
to go. Sham Bliss, he countered with three minutes to go.
Looked like it was finally gonna be the old most
troubles in the National Championship game.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
But not so fast. Carson Beck says.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
He runs one in from out three yards eighteen seconds left,
which honestly was enough time for Shambliss to make it scary,
but not enough time for him to make another game
winning touchdown. Mark Fletcher went for a buck thirty three
for the Canes. We also had mal Chai Cone Tony
doing his things ninety two total yards and a touchdown,
but Keilan marrying this guy, this wide receiver oftentimes viewed
(07:31):
as the third piece of this Miami pass game, was really.
Speaker 4 (07:34):
A stud down stretch.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Seven receptions, one hundred and fourteen yards and a touchdown bogs.
The biggest difference though, to me in this game was
Miami was eleven for nineteen on third downs, two for
two on fourth down, almost two for ten on third downs,
and I really thought that this field was gonna be slick,
and it was I think that part of my handicapping
was correct. We saw the pass rush for the Canes
really be neutralized. Messador banged up in and out of
(07:56):
the lineup. But Miami just dominated an in time possession
right forty one minutes. I mean, they were just going
on these long, sustained drives. Even if they were going
for a field goal, they were taking time off the clock,
which you could tell right off the rip or miss.
They did not want that because they wanted the ball first.
They wanted to go at a quick pace, and that
kind of bit them in the butt after all. So
what are your takeaways from this first game that we
(08:18):
saw on Thursday night?
Speaker 2 (08:19):
You know, the only thing that wasn't dominated in this
game was the score because I you know, like you said,
the efficiency for Miami. Now, they did also have ten penalties,
which you have got to clean up. You are not
winning a game with ten penalties against Indiana, right, So,
but did you see the time of possession in this
game seth.
Speaker 4 (08:38):
Forty minutes forty one minutes?
Speaker 2 (08:39):
It's absurd in Miami's favor. They dropped at least three interceptions, right,
and two fumbles also did not go their way in
terms of bounces, so this should have been a Miami drubbing.
They own time possession, they had chances for turnovers, but
they didn't take advantage of the mistakes that all mismade,
(09:02):
and they let all miss hang around and take the
lead late.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
It took a comeback.
Speaker 2 (09:06):
It took the best drive of Carson Beck's career to
end up winning that game because they did not take
advantage of those mistakes. So, you know, should have been
a dominant performance by the Hurricanes. This is kind of
the game that we saw going the whole way, but
it did kind of seem at the end. I was like, man,
maybe Seth was right, Maybe this team is destined because
(09:28):
this is a crazy valiant comeback at the end here,
but the defense just could not hold up and Carson
Beck ended up running one in. And Carson Beck, he
had some drops from his guys in that game as well,
so I think he could have had a much better
at least stat line if some of those had come down.
But to a little too vanilla on offense for me
(09:48):
to like. And they absolutely did not take advantage of
the mistakes that all mismade. So they're lucky to be
moving on here. But this was a dominant performance. It
could have been a drop if they had taken advantage
of those.
Speaker 4 (10:03):
Yeah, I'm with you there, Bogs.
Speaker 1 (10:04):
And it's a little like it's a little upsetting because
sometimes I hear in the comments like Seth, you're always
drinking way too much juice from always taking these alt lines,
and I get it. I was on the three and
a half, the key number I went in for the
Ole miss ReBs, and of course four was the number
I got burned on the hook there says like another
opportunity where I'm like, I should have bet down the number, right.
Speaker 3 (10:24):
I mean both teams miss field goals. Yeah, yeah, you know.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Even though Ole missus field goal kicker. That guy is
an absolutely I mean he was a banker yardist.
Speaker 4 (10:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
What would have been the Steelers too, maybe if Bogs
uh bozz, Yeah, I.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
Did not that. I'm sure you saw that.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
Oh yeah, I did see that. I did see that
that extra point. Yeah, So that was scary. But on
the other side of things, Tho Bogs the number one
Indiana Hoosiers. They beat down the number five Oregon Ducks
fifty six twenty two in the Chick fil A Peach
Bowl on Friday night.
Speaker 4 (10:57):
And with what a great game we got on not
so much of the case on Friday right.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
Three turnovers put the Ducks in a thirty five to
seven hole by halftime.
Speaker 4 (11:07):
That was really all she wrote at that point.
Speaker 1 (11:09):
And for the second straight game, Fernando Mendoza had more
touchdowns five than he did in completions three. This guy's
playing at an all time level right now. Five different
skilled players found paydirt for the Hoosiers, Kaylin.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
Black, elijahs Torot.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
We also had Charlie Becker, the roommate of Mendoza, Omar
Cooper Junior, and EJ. Williams Junior, all finding the end zone.
I you had no turnovers eleven for thirteen on third down, Bogs.
Is this the best coach team you've ever seen in
college football? Because they just seemed so dang button up,
And you know, I don't take anything away from the
(11:44):
job that coach Signetti has done with this team, because
it is absolutely amazing how well and how.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
Motivated they are ready to go each and every week.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
Man, I have I think you have to say they
are at least one of the best coach teams.
Speaker 4 (11:55):
Can you name another? So who would you put above
them for sure.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
I don't know that.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Yeah, but Alabama had way more five stars, right, so
you are afforded more mistakes from those teams when you
have more athleticism, right, So it definitely has to be
one of them. I mean, you think of those Nebraska
and how disciplined those teams were when they're running the
triple option to be able to win a national title
with that type of an offense, right, So, like you think,
(12:23):
but you have to go either that far back, you know,
or no one else matches them. It's it's one of
those too. So incredibly well coached team. But also the
bounces went their way. You open with a pick six, right,
so you open with a pick six, you get the fumbles.
Those bounces didn't have to go Indiana's way, and there's
(12:44):
a couple that did not go that that. It just
felt like they got every break they could. Now you
get every break you can by being well disciplined, by
putting yourself in the right position, by whooping that offensive
line and getting after more. So they got the bounces
and had the dominant win. Miami didn't get the bounces
(13:05):
and had to win in the last second. So I
do think that this game is going to be closer
than people are making it out to be. I think
we've seen money come pouring in on the user side
right already. But I still think Indiana is the team
to beat.
Speaker 3 (13:23):
I like them to win as.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Well, so I don't it's not gonna be a beat
down like this, even though I know a lot of
people think that Oregon was a better team than Miami
and that that is possible, but they definitely did not
play the best game. So this was a stomping. This
was a scary looking team into the two team. The
two games in the playoffs, they've won thirty eight to three.
(13:46):
They rolled the tide and then they smacked the dust.
Speaker 1 (13:51):
We're talking about man, I mean yeah, and I will
say for Oregon too.
Speaker 4 (13:56):
No Winnington being somewhat of a surprise late. I mean
he did.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
I don't want call the scratch because he did play,
but he played what one thing he shouldn't play one play.
I think he played the first the first player, the
first or second play. I don't even know if he
took a carry. He then go out of that game. Yeah,
So I mean, so that was a bummer. And then
they also lost Davidson the RB two had kind of
been a smash mouth back for him, so they're really
having to turn to some of that inexperience in the backfield,
which caused one of that early fumbles from Dante More
(14:23):
that gave the Hoosiers an instant goal and go opportunity.
So that was kind of, I think a big deciding
factor as well. And got to shout out the alma
mater two. I don't know if you heard it box
how close you're listening to the broadcast, but they shouted
out Indiana University, Pennsylvania. Iup where sig Signetti comes from.
He took a job there. He was making three hundred thousand,
(14:43):
they were telling us at Alabama, and then he took
a pay cut of to.
Speaker 4 (14:46):
One twenty to go to Indiana.
Speaker 1 (14:48):
His assistant coaches that were still with him were making
eight and six thousand dollars at the time, living on
government assisted food stamps. So I mean, what a story
this has been, what a run this is And to
his dad, Frank Signetti Field, that is the field that
is still there at iup. My freshman year, I got
to see Signetti up close and what he was doing
(15:08):
with our program out there, so what a run this
has been to watch him kind of firsthand, and uh,
very thankful for it, Bogs, and very thankful.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
That you were on Google about thirty.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
Yes, sir, well, I wasn't allowed to.
Speaker 1 (15:23):
Uh they didn't need any more sports writers my freshman year,
so I only I got to write.
Speaker 4 (15:27):
I was a culture writer. That's I got right about
the music scene.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
So yeah, unfortunate, but uh, we'll let bygones be bygones now.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
And uh, speaking.
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Speaker 1 (17:53):
AYU comes into this one off the Big Ten Championship
win a few weeks ago. They now beat Alabama and
or in blow up fashion to get the fifteen and
oh straight up ten and five ats as well. Miami,
they got into the dance as in that large bid,
Notre Dame probably wishing that was them. Right they've advanced,
though the Caynes have to thirteen and two straight up
(18:13):
ten and five ats, and the line opened for this
game bogs right at seven and a half, that key
number there if you won in Miami, but it's already
been bought up to eight points at some books. I
U minus three hundred on the money line Miami plus
two sixty five to win this game outright. The total
remains at forty eight and a half points after opening
there right now. On the injury front for Indiana, Edge
(18:34):
Stephen Day likely remains out. He was injured if you remember,
back in the Big Ten Championships celebration.
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Also, we did see Edge McKay kamara.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
He was banged up late in the Semis, but I've
seen nothing on the internet that is questioning his availability
out there, so I'm thinking he is gonna be good
to go for Miami.
Speaker 4 (18:52):
Meanwhile, it's not so simple.
Speaker 1 (18:54):
They have defensive lineman Donta Simpson, who has hit the portal.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
He's head to Miszoo.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
We also have one of their top defense of tackles
and run stuff for Amaud Moten Junior. He was injured
in that Fiesta Bowl game. Was trying to give it
a go, could not. We did see Edge a key messador.
He was in and out of the lineup in the Semis,
got his.
Speaker 3 (19:11):
Arm falling on Recredly.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Yeah, so it looks like he came back in he
got a break, so he should be up for this one.
Also good news for Miami as well. Bogs on the
injury front cornerbacks to Mary Brown and oj Frederice. They
were held out of the Semis. Frederic was active, but
just they held him out they didn't need him. They
will both be back for the Natti's what we're hearing
right now from some Miami pages and running back Mark Fletcher,
(19:36):
though he does have the flu, and this is something
that Christa Ball has quoted been quoted on. He's worried
about this maybe spreading throughout the locker room. So maybe
some non healthy players, not in the way we usually
think in injuries, but just in terms of you know,
immune system, feeling yourself at one hundred percent, Mark Fletcher
and maybe some other Miami players. So something to keep
in mind. There BP projections right now. We have Indiana
(19:58):
winning this game by over ten points. We also love
the over closer to fifty five and a half points.
The public right now eighty five percent of tickets, ninety
two percent of the cash is on IU, and seventy
nine percent of the cash is on the over bogs.
What are your early leaves for this last opportunity to
bet live college ball games until August.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
Yeah, this one is going to be closer I think
than Like I said, the public gives it credit, but
I still think it's going to be an Indiana when
that is my initial reaction here. You know, we saw
last week Miami dominate time of possession forty one to
twenty two. They won this game even with ten penalties,
(20:38):
even being minus one in the turnover department. You know,
they only allowed all miss to score two touchdowns and
held them to five field goal attempts and they made
four and missed one. And it was just it was
the opposite right for Indiana. They got the turnovers, they
were eleven and fourteen on third downs. Doza showed off
the legs. As you mentioned, he was seventeen to twenty
(20:59):
more touchdown and incompletion. So I do think because we
saw the bounces go the Hoosiers way, we didn't see
Miami go that way. The difference in this game is
a little overblown. But I still think this could be
a double digit win by the Hoosiers here, right, So, Indiana,
they're not going to be whiffing on those tackles and
the screen passes like Ole miss was. Becky's done a
(21:22):
great job of making of not making that massive bad mistake,
right he you know, rolled right down that field.
Speaker 1 (21:29):
Yeah, he has been poised in the biggest moments, which
has always really been Carson Beck's I think biggest question
mark around him.
Speaker 3 (21:36):
Right absolutely.
Speaker 2 (21:37):
I mean that's the reason why Georgia fans wanted him gone,
But he has spent the whole season. I text you
after the game, I'm like, I think Carson beck might
actually be pretty good, right, Like, it wasn't his fault
that they won this game. He didn't do anything absolutely
amazing here, but he made the plays when he needed
to lose the game.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
He didn't lose him the game.
Speaker 2 (21:55):
He scored when they had to and It's not his
fault that his guys dropped the ball number one couple
times and his defense didn't come up with any of
those timely interceptions. So I think Miami won this game
by more than the final score.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Is all I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Indiana is not gonna be whiffing on those tackles like
Ole Miss did back is probably gonna have a turnover
in this game because Indiana turns over everybody, and the
Hoosias are just so disciplined. Second scoring defense, second rushing defense,
third and run D grade and tackle grade Indiana's first
and turnover marchs and fifth and penalties for game eighth
in opponent's third down conversion percentage right, And we've seen
(22:34):
Miami really lean into the run in the playoff, and
as you mentioned, Mark Fletcher has the flu right now.
So against A and m it was twenty one pass
attempts for Miami, twenty seven rush attempts against Ohio State
twenty six pass attempts, thirty five rushing attempts. Right all
miss thirty seven pass attempts, fifty rush attempts because they
had the ball for forty one minutes. So I just
(22:55):
for me, how are you gonna run into the teeth
of this Hoosia's defense, let anybody run on them all year.
Carson Beck is going to have to make plays for
this team to win the game. And part of the
reason that he's been so good at holding it on
the ball, keeping the possession is because he doesn't make
those take those big deep shots downfield. Is a dot
has been lower this season than it was last year
(23:17):
at Georgia, and because of that, you know, the game
is played within a smaller frame, which makes it easier
for Indiana. Oregon average one hundred and ninety eight point
six rushing yards per game. Indiana allowed them ninety three.
Alabama had twenty three rushing yards against Indiana. Ohio State
in the Big Ten title game. They average one hundred
(23:38):
and fifty four point four yards rushing all year. They
had fifty eight rushing yards against the Hoosiers. Now, look,
these numbers aren't perfect because you do count sackyards in
the rushing stats, which is but.
Speaker 4 (23:48):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, but I hate that. I do hate.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
It's just a dumb thing. They should give it of it,
so that does count here. So it's not one hundred
percent perfect. But those rushing yards that those teams got
also count the sack yards they account for that. Yeah,
so you know this team has been so good at
stopping the run, Carson bec has to make big throws.
He's gonna have to make throws down the field. The
old line for the Kines has been flawless, but they
(24:12):
have to The defensive line, excuse me, has been flawless,
but they have to tackle better.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
They have to have fewer penalties.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
I just think in this game, for the Hurricanes to
win it, even at home, you're asking them to have
a perfect game, and we saw a damn near perfect
game from the Hoosiers against Oregon.
Speaker 3 (24:30):
Right.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
I think they're more likely team to have the perfect
game and the better setup. So I'm gonna take Indiana.
I think Miami's defense keeps them in it, so I'll
roll with the under as well in this but I'm
gonna be laying the points and taking the Hoosiers unless
this line gets out to over ten points, which I
just do not. I don't think is gonna move much
from where seven and a half. I think seven and
(24:52):
a half is gonna be the line.
Speaker 1 (24:54):
Okay, So Bog's on that Indiana minus seven and a half, right,
now at minus won ten odds, and then the under
forty eight half at minus one oh eight. I'm gonna
do what I usually do. I'm gonna drink the juice.
Get to that key number of six and a half.
With the Hoosiers, I'm gonna go minus one sixty three
right now. I'm gonna wait for a boost because, as
we've read in the hard Rock promo, we know them,
we know all these other books are gonna be putting
(25:15):
out some different promos you can get invested with. So
I'm gonna wait for a hopefully a fifty percent boost.
Take that down something more drinkable, like a minus one thirty.
Speaker 4 (25:22):
I'm gonna do it that every book I can.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
And the reason I want to do that box is because,
like you have to play a perfect game to beat Iu, right,
I mean, how many times have we said that this
is a team First in turn andover margin as you said,
one point four per game, fifth and penalties per game
as well? Are the Hooters three point seven six in
time possession and sacks per game plus third in explosive
plays as well, Miami. They are worse than I you
(25:44):
in pretty much all those categories, but they are respectful
in those categories, right, the one that they aren't bogs
that I don't know if you can correct, because it
seems like whether it's this team or the cam Woard
team a year ago or previous Miami teams like when
Van Dyke was there and stuff so bad penalties, so
indiscipline one hundred and fourth at seven per game. So
(26:05):
I think I also am kind of with you that
I'm leaning towards that under because I think that there's
an opportunity there because both these teams are one hundred
and twenty fifth plus in pace, right, and like they
love to do the same thing to each other where
they just like bleed half the quarter with these long drives.
Like ye, Miami, that's how they took the wind out
of Ohio State Sales.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
That's how they.
Speaker 1 (26:26):
Won the game against ole Miss is they were going
on these seven eight minute drives. Yeah, they might result
three points, but it's still good enough for them. And
that's what the Hoosiers have done. I mean, they didn't
do that as much against Oregon because they.
Speaker 2 (26:36):
Didn't really need they need to, But when you have
ten yards to go and you're getting defensive scores, right,
don't need it right, And.
Speaker 1 (26:44):
I will say, like, as we kind of mentioned at
the top two, like Mendoza and I, you have struggled
a little bit against some of these other elite.
Speaker 4 (26:51):
Pass rush teams.
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Penn State, we know the pass rush they have, Iowa
always very tie up in defensive raidings and Ohio State, right,
So I think maybe that can actually keep I you
and Check a little bit more than what Alabama and
what Oregan has been able to because I don't think
either of us were necessarily super scared of the Oregon
or the Alabama pass rush, right, Like, that's not where
(27:14):
I think really the strength of those defenses are.
Speaker 4 (27:17):
Specifically Oregon.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
I more thinking about their lineback in court, right, So yeah,
I think to me, it's gonna probably be that Indiana
minus six and a half. Check back with us later
in the week to see our official plays, but I'm
definitely gonna have some Indiana minus six and a half
on the card and then box. I don't know if
it's like whether we tease this up and I put
it in a teaser and just take like a ridiculously
high number to go under, or if I just bet
(27:38):
the under, or maybe it's like I've seen Miami floating
around there at twenty and a half points, but that
doesn't feel as great like I was thinking maybe i'd
get like a twenty four and a half on their
team total, because as we saw the Ducks last week,
they backdoored a lot of people who were on the
Ducks under. I think they're under was also twenty and
a half in that game, and I know a lot
of people in the community got back doored on that.
Speaker 4 (27:57):
Like with like a couple of seconds left and it
was a bit really bad.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Yeah, that one, That one's rough, right, But I think
I think I'm gonna go. I think it might be
what is uh? Do we know what Indiana's team total
is yet? I haven't seen it, so I can pull
that back up. I can pull that back up.
Speaker 1 (28:14):
But I imagine if if we're looking at twenty and a
half points for uh for Miami, here's probably gonna be
right around twenty seven. Twenty eight and a half for
the Hoosiers is probably where it's gonna come in at.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Yeah, I think I'm definitely taking the under for Miami then,
just because of what Indiana has done to everybody, right
the twenty two to Oregon, I think is might that
might be the most they've given up all year. I know,
the twenty four to Penn State, I think is the
most points they've given up all year.
Speaker 3 (28:41):
Right.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Also, I put in a short last week Bogs, they've
only allowed one quarterback to have more than one passing
touchdown in a game. They've coming into last week had
six allowed passing touchdowns.
Speaker 4 (28:51):
In the entire game. That is a crazy, crazy number.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
So yeah, just the discipline, man, Like you know, I
guess maybe last year they had the same discipline. You
could outwill them, you could out athlete them. I don't
think he can do it this year.
Speaker 4 (29:06):
So twenty eight and a half, twenty nine and a half, right,
like I put it. Put okay, it's sixteen total.
Speaker 1 (29:11):
Yea.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
The final that I feel like I'm looking at is
thirty one seventeen, right, like everyone seventeen. That's so you
have any went of by two touchdowns. I think that
the numbers forty eight and a half, right, So you're
still under forty eight and a half.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
So that is kind of what I'm looking at. It
could be okay, twenty four to.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Seventeen, though, if it's twenty four to seventeen in Indiana
doesn't score late, then you got your cover at six
and a half. Right, you know that that's where the
juice comes in for something like that, but you know
it could easily be twenty seven and fourteen as well,
so at a field goal at the end.
Speaker 1 (29:47):
So and Bogs, you're not expecting a ton of line
movement on either the total or the spread this week,
despite all the money that it is coming on.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Maybe the total moves out right. I think the total
could move.
Speaker 4 (29:58):
Out, but may we wait? If we want the total,
then yeah.
Speaker 2 (30:01):
If you want to take the under, yeah, go ahead
and wait, because I do think that that could move.
I don't think the line changes. I think you want
it just over a touchdown because you know, you want
people to try to drink the juice to get it
to six and a half. So I think the seven
and a half number is good. If we do see
a move, it's going to be eight and a half.
I don't think it comes back down.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
So I don't think so either.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
And you know, I feel like a lot of people
are going to say, well, Miami has a home game.
Miami has a home game. Not really, you know, if
you saw what was happening in Atlanta. Everyone that I've
listened to that was there said it was ninety ten.
Indiana fans have been waiting for.
Speaker 1 (30:41):
I told him so, but I knew the IU is gonna.
I didn't think it'd be ninety ten, though, I thought
it would be more like seventy thirty twenty, right.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
I know so, And the prices have surged once the
Hoosiers were in there. It like the cheapest ticket right
after that game was thirty five hundred dollars for nos So,
you know, I think it's going to be a pretty
even crowd. You get the local contingency of Miami. It's
not gonna be quiet. But the Hoosiers have traveled the
(31:08):
entire postseason, so I think they'll do it again.
Speaker 1 (31:11):
Just like a moment in time reflection on how much
the Hoosier hype is going. You can get a Fernando
Mendoza base bowman chrome university football card, just a base card,
nothing special about it. It's going for anywhere from twenty
to thirty dollars. That's more than most autographs are going
for right now. Bogs like that is where we are
at with this hype for this kid and for the
IU Hoosiers.
Speaker 4 (31:32):
And you and I were just out here spoonfeed.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
Yeah, we're part of the problem.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
But you know, look, this is Mendoza, this is we
were not sitting here, what do you say, one hundred
and thirty six days ago thinking that, oh, for sure
it's gonna be the Big ten versus the ACC that
means Miami versus Indiana.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Nobody had that.
Speaker 1 (31:54):
Yeah, so I was on their team total over nine
and a half wins, and I felt really good about that.
Speaker 4 (31:58):
For Indiana.
Speaker 1 (31:59):
Yeah, they know I have a championship ticket and they
were sitting out there twenty five forty to one. At
some books, I've seen people post some preseason Miami tickets
sixty sixty five to one, So congrats if those are
your you folks who are having those great bets.
Speaker 4 (32:12):
And a reminder, you can also track your bets.
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Speaker 4 (32:50):
Bog's great stuff today.
Speaker 1 (32:51):
As always, my friend that is going to do it
for us though on this early lines episode of the
Betting Pros College Football Show still to come later this
week on both the VP YouTube channel and the audio feed.
Our Betting Guide episode will give you our official loss Bogs.
We'll also have his top player props for the Natty.
Also have a player prop short dropping on Saturday on
the YouTube channel as well. In the meantime, let us
(33:13):
go down to the comments below your top early picks
for the National Championship Game. We want to hear from you,
and while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like
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Scott Bob and I've said with Wilcock, take care of y'all.
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