Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
your bets as B Joey, p joe Pi Zapia and
this is BP NFL. We just did our AFC Championship
game look ahead. Now we're gonna do the NFC version
right here. Our best bets, our favorite props, some game stuff.
We got all of a touchdown calls sgps. It's all
right here for you, and don't forget right here in
(00:22):
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Wolcock Scott Bogman will take you through the first half
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But you can only do that if you're here in
the channel, So subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube right now. Gentlemen,
we've got a good contest here between division rivals meeting
(00:44):
up for a third time here in this one, the
Rams and the Seahawks. So Welsh, let's talk about it.
I know you're bummed a little bit because you're forty
nine ers didn't quite make it there, but I don't
know about you. I'd rather lose by a million than
lose by a point.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
Yeah, that's a good point. I'd rather know that Brandon
Ayuk is driving one hundred and twenty somewhere super happy
not being a Niner and losing by forty than being
a close game and Brandon ak trying to suit up.
That's what I That's what I always say. I've actually
always said that. So this is gross. I don't like this.
I have to pick between two of the division rivals,
one team I do hate a little bit more than
(01:20):
the other. That actually is not going to influence this though,
because I've been saying this for a while. I think
the Rams are the best team in the NFL, and
I've thought that for quite some time, even though the
playoffs have been a little squirrely. Both games they've only
won by three. You know, the Panthers thing almost got
away from them like skin of their teeth, but they
(01:40):
I think that's kind of the testament to this team.
And I think that offense, obviously, the passing offense at
the top of the league. I think they're monsters here
and they are plus money. I love this spot. So
my first bet, mister Joe Piezapia is going to be
the Rams. We're going to go to Los Angeles, Rams
plus two and a half. I know Seattle is a
(02:01):
tough place to play, but I think they're the best
in the NFL. Both of these matchups, by the way
these teams have Obviously, this will be the third matchup
they've had this season. Both of the two matchups they've
played has had a winning margin of one or two.
They have split the series between these. I think there
is a bit of a momentum loss also that's going
(02:21):
on with Seattle. They're losing Sharbona and I think the
Rams they're going to be able to hold this one.
So I'm gonna take the two and a half points
in what has classically been close games throughout this entire series.
And gross, We're gonna have to pick a NFC team,
NFC West team that is not the forty nine ers,
but at least it's not the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
It's okay, Wash, I know this is a tough show
for you. We appreciate your professionalism here on the program.
All right, let's get to your first pick here, Andrew Rickson,
what do you have for the people?
Speaker 3 (02:48):
I also like the Rams with the points in this matchup,
but it's not my pick. I'm going with the total
and I'm going to take the under at forty seven
and a half points because the oddsmakers have done very
bad job of rejecting these Rams Seahawks games. Basically, anytime
that we've had games with a high total, it goes under,
and when they've been very low totals, it's gone over.
(03:08):
And it's also been whoever's been favored doesn't actually cover
the spread. So again another reason to back the Rams
plus two and a half. But anytime the total between
the Rams and Seahawks last two years has closed north
of forty two and a half points, the game has
gone under. In those matchups at forty two points or lower,
the game went over the total. So considering we're coming
off a monstrous offensive explosion from both teams in the
(03:31):
last time we saw them play is a game also
that went to overtime. That's why you look at total
it's at forty seven and a half points, when I
don't think it's really a stretch to think, well, we're
probably going to get more of a forty two point game,
because that was the first matchup was a much lower
scoring game when Sam Donald had four interceptions. So I
look at both these defenses, both ranked top five in
the red zone. So I think that's where you're going
(03:53):
to see the biggest impact from both Eventsive side show
up here, Mike McDonald and Chris Shula Man, this guy
puts Sam Donald through a blender. In the last two years,
he's put Sam Donald through a blender in these matchups,
whether it was with Sam Darnal with the Vikings or
Sam Dnal with the Seahawks. Donald has not played his
best football offensively when facing this Rams defense. So I
think the defense is dominating the red zone, especially without
(04:13):
Zach Sharboney. I think that's a big loss in terms
of Seattle's ability to convert in the red zone if
they're kicking more field goals than touchdowns. I think this
game goes under forty seven a half points. Both defenses
allowing fewer than twenty one points per game this year.
I'm taking me under, all right.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
So the under for Andrew Erickson with his first pick, Well,
sholet's go back to you. I know both you and
Andrew have some feelings about Sam Donald. Props you want
to share, so let's start with yours, which has to
do with the pass attempts for Donald in this game.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Yeah, I mean, I guess non traditional people are going
to get like touchdowns or passing yards. I'm going to
go with the pass attempts on Sam Darnald and I'm
gonna go over at twenty nine point five. Donald only
had seventeen pass attempts last week, So you could be like,
why are we going over? Well, that game was over
after the first kickoff. Unfortunately Rashijia he takes it back
nine done. They were able to establish that running game.
This team has had a great running game the entire season.
(05:04):
But as mentioned before, there's no Zach Sharboney. I think
you're going to have to really ask yourselves how comfortable
are they going to be unloading ken Walker. But also
I think the Rams can have a steady hold on
this game. So that comes back to this team needing
to throw the ball and Sam Donald needing to throw
the ball in the matchups, ironically the Seahawks versus the Rams.
(05:24):
Both of those, Sam Donald has gone over this pass
attempt total thirty four and forty four pass attempts in
both those outings. So I think that is going to
be another continuation. I think the Seahawks, whether it's a
close gamer playing from behind, I think they're going to
have to rely a little bit more on the passing game.
So I really like the idea of him just having
at least thirty pass attempts here. So that is my
(05:45):
second bet here, Sam Donald twenty nine point five over
pass attempts.
Speaker 1 (05:49):
All right, So to you, Andrew Erickson, what's the best
approach for Donald in this game?
Speaker 3 (05:53):
On your opinion, he's going to throw an interception. His
last three games against the Rams, he's been picked off
seven times. That is so many interceptions we're saying Donald
against this Chris Shula led Rams defense. Like Donald's one
and three against the Rams. In the last four matchups,
he has five passing touchdowns to the aforementioned seven interceptions,
(06:14):
which have all happened in the last three games he
has faced this Chris Shula led defense. Since Week eleven,
Donald has nine passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. So he's
really kind of fallen off significantly since his hot start
of the year. You've kind of even seen that with
JSN his numbers have dipped down a little bit. In
the second half of the season. It was actually I
(06:35):
was actually surprised. We'll get some of the fantasy numbers
that Pook actually finished ahead of Jacksmith and Jig, but
in the end through all seventeen weeks of the season.
So yeah, all the left tackles for the Seattle Seahawks
are on the injury report this week, and I expect
Sam Donald to be constantly under pressure, and this is
when we see him make mistakes. First career playoff start
last year in the wildcard round against the Rams, he
(06:56):
was sacked nine times, which was the most sacks taken
in a playoff game all time Sam Donald against this
Chris Hula led Rams defense. I know the Rams secondary
is not good. I know they have a bunch of injuries.
But that pass rush I think is going to get
after Sam Donald enforce me to spit a mistake, especially
if he's attempting over thirty pass attempts like well she
(07:16):
talked about so more pass attempts, needs more turns for
opportunities for interceptions. I think that's going to happen here.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
All right. When it comes to the Rams, we all
know we have to make some sort of Pooka Nakua investment.
Obviously last week a little disappointing because the weather some
issues there. Obviously, little chili in Chicago, a little different
scenario here in Seattle. So let's talk about Pooka Nakoua.
How do we want to approach him? Obviously the yardist
rolls very high, so well she in your opinion, what's
the best bet you can make on Puoka in this game.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
I'm going to go to the receptions. And by the way,
the receptions weren't there last week, but the targets were
continuously there every single week too. I look at the rams,
I go and I have this spot where I'm like,
all right, look at those high numbers for Puka, look
at those sexy numbers for DeVante Adams. He can have
five catches at plus money. You know, he'd been such
a great red zone target, but continuously happens that never happens.
(08:06):
He might, you know, spatter it out to a couple
other guys, but it is Puka Nakua three or four
times every single drive. It feels like, so we're gonna
go with the receptions on Pooka. He has caught eight
or more balls and had ten or more targets in
six of his last seven games versus Seattle, he caught
twelve and seven this year. Pooka, he's been first, second
(08:28):
and third read for Stafford over the last couple months.
Obviously him getting to the you know, the top of
the wide receiver ring and the fantasy side. He's they
have shown us the playbook. They're going to continuously lean
on him, they move him around in the offense. I
got another Puka bet that's going to be fun with
this here in just a tiny bit, but Pooka eight receptions.
It's such a big number, but believe me, you are
(08:49):
going to get twelve to fourteen targets from him in
this game. And I really like this spot for him.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
All right, So that's the rams through the air. What
about on the ground, Andrew, What can Karen Williams do
in this game?
Speaker 3 (08:58):
Hopefully rush for over fifty four and a half rushing
yards because that's the bet that I'm making here. Kyron
has hit at least fifty four rushing yards in nine
of his last ten games played, and he's hit the
over in both matchups against the Seattle Seahawks this season
seventy rushing yards and ninety one rushing yards. So I'm
trying to wrap my mind around why this number is
so low. I get the Seahawks have a really good
(09:19):
run defense, but Kyra Wims has shown that he can
overcome the specific matchup, not just this year, but last
year too when he also had sixty nine rushing yards
at Seattle. So I just think this one is just
too low. And when you look at the projections, they
have Kiren well north of sixty rushing yards.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
So give me the over all, right, So those are
the first three picks here for the guys. We got
a bunch more to go, some touchdown calls, lots of
fun stuff still to happen. But if you want to
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(09:55):
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discord today. Next up here Welsh. Now, look, when it
comes to Puka, it's not just getting them the ball
on targets, it's just getting the ball in his hands.
(10:17):
So what can we do with that when it comes
to Pukaaku in this game?
Speaker 2 (10:21):
This might be the most fun one this week. So
we went on receptions. I'm telling you I wasn't jumping
on yards. So what are we doing. We're going with
rushing yards. This one is set at four point five
and follow me here. Pooka has had at least one
rush attempt in five straight games. He has gone over
five rushing yards in four of his last five games
(10:44):
where he had those attempts. The last game played up
against Seattle, he ripped off two rush attempts for eighteen.
They want the ball in his hands. However, they're going
to be able to do it. Hopefully, both of these
are going to be able to lock together and it's
not going to be a situation and where, you know,
kind of like in last week's game where it's like
they just couldn't, you know, get the targets to fly
(11:04):
and they couldn't get it in Pooka's hands. If that
does happen, this bet seems even more likely. But they
continuously are running stuff like this, and this is a
really strong defense. This is the exact type of play
that they want to run. They've been doing it five
straight weeks. We need one good rush attempt, but we've
seen him get multiple rush attempts as well. He did
against Seattle last time. So five plus yards for Pokin
(11:25):
Nakua rushing. That's a fourth bet, all.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
Right, Andrew Erickson, I know you're always good for at
least one BET's a little off the reservation, a little
outside the box. So what do you have for everybody
in this game?
Speaker 3 (11:36):
Well, after hitting Keyon Coleman anytime touched him last week,
I got to run it back with another long shot
anytime touchdown, and that was after he dropped a touchdown.
He still ended up scoring later in the game. So
I still love Keon Coleman, even if everyone in Buffalo
doesn't like him anymore.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
I'm still like the ownership doesn't like him.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Man, ownership doesn't like him, I'm gonna go with Terrence
Ferguson anytime touchdown at plus six point fifty or plus
seven hundred in some spots here as well. Ferguson scored
the last time he played the Seattle Seahawks earlier in
the year, and he had an end zone target last
week against the Bears total five targets. I thought it
was interesting that he was still in the game late
(12:11):
when Matthews sever was chucking the ball down the field.
He also outsnapped Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen, So it
seems like Terrence Ferguson, the snaps, the routes are trending
in the right direction for them to use him more
as a pass catcher, and specifically how he's been deployed
in this offense average seventeen point six air yards per
target this season. It's the second most among players at
his position at least twenty five targets by more than
(12:33):
six full yards. So they're using him a ton downfield.
They're doing some play action. I think they're going to
take some shots with Terry Ferguson, especially in the end zone,
so we know that one of these tight ends with
the ram is going to catch touchdown. Right There's so
many of them. Matthew Stafford's probably good for at least
three touchdowns. He destroyed the Seahawks the last time he
played them without Devonte Adams. So I like the rookie
year in this situation to catch the touchdown.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
All right, So the rookie TD here, Welsh, let's get
to your last pick here and has to do with
Matthew Stafford, possibly the MVP of the year, And you've
got a fun one here. Let's talk about the touchdowns
and how many Matthew Stafford could throw in this game.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Yeah, this is definitely my fun one. A little bit
longer odds, but Erickson just kind of said, he said,
Matthew Stafford's good for three touchdowns. Well, guess what that's
the bet. Matthew Stafford passing touchdowns at three point five.
We've got some good odds on this one. You're gonna
get close to three to one for him to do that.
Stafford has only not thrown more than one touchdown three
(13:28):
games this entire season. Ten times this year, ken he
has thrown for three or more touchdowns against the Seahawks.
He actually did this once. He has five passing touchdowns
no picks. One of those games he did get three.
As I've said before, I think the Rams are going
to seadily have this. I think the a little dicey
on the Karen Williams one because I think Seattle is
(13:50):
going to shut down some of that running game. What
that ends up doing is that pushes Stafford to throw
the ball more. You've got some short goal line spots maybe,
and that's the big key too. They get into that
five yard range instead of going to Kyrin Williams. It's
more play action to Pooka or the tight ends. Actually
really like that Ferguson call there. So Matthew Stafford at
three passing touchdowns in this game, almost three to one.
(14:10):
That's my very very fun bet.
Speaker 1 (14:13):
Okay, Andrew Erickson, let's close it out strong, what do
you have? What's your final bet for the NFC Championship game.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
If Matthew Stafford is the fun bet, this is the
least fun bet on Cooper Cup. The dusty old veteran
playing his old team's going to be over two and
a half receptions. He has at least three catches in
both games this year against his former team. And what
have we been doing all throughout the playoffs attacking the
Rams secondary with opposing slot wide receivers. Jalen Coker two
(14:38):
weeks ago, Smash Luther Burden. Last week, Smash Cooper Cup.
This week, Yes, Smash and his version of a smashes. Oh,
he caught three passes for thirty yards. We'll take it
because it still hits the over, So Cooper Cup over
two and a half catches all.
Speaker 1 (14:53):
Right, Cooper Cup. Look at that, the third in the
revenge game of the year, and we can't really have
revenge and avera this many times. I think it's kind
of it's kind of old, but a big spot. So
we'll see if the old man's got one left in
the tank. But that brings us to our favorite part
of the program are hard Rock Best Bets of the
Game here sponsored by our sponsor, hard Rock Bet. So
it's the only legal sports book in Florida. And obviously
(15:15):
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And don't worry if you miss kickoff because they've got
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New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Let's take you through our
favorite bets of the week. Welsh, what is your favorite
of all that you've laid out for us today for
the NFC Championship game.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
I gotta tell you, I'm I'm kind of locked into these,
maybe even a little bit more than in the AFC side.
I definitely had a really good favorite that I think
is maybe my singular favorite bet of the entire weekend.
There's like three and the Pooka rushing yards is really
really close. At the end of the day, I'm going
to lock in on the Sam Darnold pass attempts at
twenty nine point five. I think that is the play
(16:57):
that is the spot Seattle losing a little bit on
the running game with Sharbona, they are going to be
forced as much as possible to be slinging the ball,
and I think the thirty pass attempts for Sam Darnold
will be a necessity, So that is going to be
my hard rock best bet in this NFC Championship game.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
All right, Andrew ericson what do you have for the people?
What's your favorite bet for this game?
Speaker 3 (17:16):
My hard rock best bet of the NFC Championship game
is Cooper cup over two and a half receptions. He's
gone over this number in both his games against the
Rams this season and last week's coming off one of
the better games of the year. Five cats for sixty
yards on five targets. He's gone over this number in
four straight home games, three of his last five games overall.
So five star bet on the prop bet cheat sheet.
(17:39):
Don't let me down there.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
You go, everybody, and remember we'd like to do a
little SGP action as well for you. So if you
pick Cooper Cups, so this two and a half total receptions,
you go over that, and you take Matthew Stafford's over
three passing touchdowns, which is one that Welsh mentioned on
the program, you can get that number up to plus
six eighty three. It's a huge number there, so enjoy
that one while it's out there. And of course when
(18:02):
it comes to touchdowns, we know Terrence Ferguson is Andrew's
pick at almost seven to one. There crazy number, and
Pookinakua for the Welsh at plus one fifteen. So those
are all your bets. Download the hard Rock Bets sportsbook
app bet five bucks get one hundred and fifteen bonus
bets when you do which you can't do that unless
you download the app. Gentlemen, great stuff as Olways, and
if you're looking for more insights, go check out the
(18:23):
AFC version of this show right here on our YouTube channel.
Subscribe to the feed, subscribe to the podcast, subscribe to everything,
and join us live too for AFC Championship. First half
of the game, we're gonna be here Scott Boglin, Seth
Wilcock taking you through some in game live betting. It's
gonna be a great Sunday of football. And then we
get to the Super Bowl a good times, very excited
about all of that. That'll do it for us. But
(18:44):
the story of the game goes on for the Welsh
and Andrew ericson. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids,
Enjoy the games.
Speaker 4 (18:51):
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