November 19, 2025 • 16 mins
Joey P. and Bogs are back with their Week 12 Thursday Night Football breakdown as the Buffalo Bills take on the Houston Texans!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Tale of the Tape - 0:01:59
Hard Rock Bet - 0:05:00
James Cook Under 74.5 Rushing Yards - 0:06:14
Jayden Higgins Over 27.5 Receiving Yards - 0:07:31
Josh Allen Over 0.5 INTs - 0:08:49
Dalton Schultz Under 4.5 Receptions - 0:11:07
Woody Marks Over 11.5 Receiving Yards - 0:12:12
BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - 0:13:14
Same Game Parlay - 0:13:33
TD Calls - 0:14:23
Outro - 0:16:12
Helpful Links:
Hard Rock Bet - All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet. Sign up for Hard Rock Bet and make a $5 bet and you'll get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Head over to Hard Rock Bet, sign up and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bet(s). Not a cash offer. Offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida in FL. Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC, in all other states. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, CO, FL, IL, IN, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling? In FL, call 1-888-ADMIT-IT. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (AZ, CO, IL, NJ, OH, TN, VA).
BettingPros App - Make winning bets with advice and picks from top sports betting experts. The BettingPros app puts consensus and expert-driven sports betting advice at your fingertips to help you pinpoint the best odds and make winning bets. Download it today on the App Store or Google Play.
BettingPros Discord - Looking to up your game in sports betting? Join our exclusive sports betting Discord community at bettingpros.com/chat! Not only can you connect with expert handicappers who provide free picks for NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, player props, live betting, and more, but now you can also participate in our weekly community picks. Cast your vote, see how your picks stack up against the experts, and track your success!
BettingPros Pick Tracker – Want to track all of your wagers in one place? Check out the BettingPros Pick Tracker. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to tally which picks hit, and which miss AND gives you a live look at what the public is doing so you can use real-time tracking to determine which plays to make, and which to fade: bettingpros.com/pick-tracking
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey P. Joe P's a
pia and this is BP NFL. It's time to look
to Thursday Night football. Scott bog and I are going
to pick apart the Bills and Houston Texans. But we're
coming off a hot Monday night performance where Scott Bogmin
went four and one. I was all over the Cowboys
(00:21):
with the three and a half. We had a great day.
Ceedee Lamb touchdown everything we could possibly ask for, and
a whole lot of George Pickens. So, as a Steelers fan,
what's it like watching George Pickens put up a game
like that?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Unsurprising to me? I mean, he is a elite level talent.
If Dallas can get his head screwed on straight, he
is going to be an amazing wide receiver. I don't
think anybody's gonna be able to keep his head screwed
on straight. They already haven't. He got fined the week before,
and when they are inevitably bounced out of playoff contention,
(00:53):
he will be a gigantic baby man like he always is.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
And you know you gottay him a lot of money.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Very risky, very risky on set for that kind of
contract for somebody who's you know, getting benched before games
or Steelers getting in.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
For another white out. Joe George Pickens would look amazing
next to DK.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
He would.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
They just couldn't do it. He was late to everything.
I saw Jerry Dulac talking about he was late to
a game and they had asked he had to have
an MRI before this game, and they had asked Hamlin,
what's going to happen. He said, well, he's probably gonna
play a limited amount of snaps. But he showed up
like fifteen minutes before kickoff and they had to take her.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
That same story this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, it's gross.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
So great player, well, great player, million dollars talents.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
In mcdermot's nah Coleman treatment is what he needs?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Oh yeah, well, I don't.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Know, Shavers look pretty good, but I kind of desperate
and deeply had to pick him up in one. All right,
let's talk about the next Thursday night football game here
that we've got. We know Scott Bogg's favorite thing in
the world is Thursday night football. But let's look at
the tail of the tape. Here, we've got Buffalo who's
seven and three. The Houston Texans are five and five.
Right now, Texans got a fighting for their life obviously,
(02:06):
the CJ. Stroud injury big impactful moment here. So you're
getting Houston plus six and a half even though they're
at home. You're getting forty three and a half for
the over, forty four and a half for the under,
plus two fifty for the money line. Now, the spread
here on Buffalo ranges. I've seen it on betting pros
at minus three and a half all the way to minus.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Five and a half.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
But at hard Rock Bet, our sponsor, you can get
plus one on Buffalo right now. Still, I'm locking that in.
That's why I love hard Rock Bet. We'll tell you
more about our sponsor later on, but hard Rock Bet
has the best line. So I'm just gonna lock in
that Buffalo at plus one and take it to the bank.
I like that Buffalo had to bounce back last week
at home. Hopefully you know that gives them a little
(02:48):
bit of momentum going into this game. And I just
think although the Texans defense is fantastic, Josh Allen will
make it up places for the Buffalo Bills to win
this road game. Now, wouildch shock me if the Houston
Texans beat them? No, because the Buffalo Bills have dropped
a lot of games this year. Then I was shocked
that they lost Miami, even New England to a certain degree,
I was kind of shocked that they did not take
(03:09):
it to the Patriots. So, Bogs, where do you stand
on the lines on this game?
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Over underspread? What do you like?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
I mean, I think I like the home team because
right now I see you can get him at plus
six and a half for Houston. So I just think
that the score plays so low. It's Thursday night, right,
There's weird stuff that happens on Thursday, obviously, So I
just I think if you've given me more than three
and a half for the Texans at home, I'm gonna
(03:35):
take it. Even with Davis Mills, I don't know that
this year that there has been a massive difference between CJ.
Stroud and Davis Mills. I think they've been pretty comparable.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
That's depressing. I just wanted to let that sit in
the ether for a moment. Don't care for that. The
Nico Collins volume the last couple weeks has been a
real uptick too.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
What is that offense?
Speaker 1 (03:55):
I guess we'll get into the props and things like that,
but you know, his health obviously not one hundred percent
one hundred percent this time of year typically anyway, But
what do you think that kind of impact makes on
this game too? Is we're waiting for more clarity here
entering Thursday.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, I mean, I don't really like obviously Nico being down,
but I think we've seen more talent on the field recently,
with Higgins getting more looks, Woody Marks getting more looks
as well. They're they're going towards the youth that works.
So I think the deeper we get into the season,
the less we'll see of Kirk, the more we'll see
of nol you know. So I just think that they're
(04:29):
they're now realizing, Okay, look, if the rookies are, you know,
up to speed on everything we do here, let's get
him on the field because this is why we drafted them.
So they still need to fix the O line in
the offseason. The Texans so well, they.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Had to do it last year and the year before
that too. Maybe stop trading offensive lineman and then captains
of your team in the off season. Maybe that would
be a good thing to.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Do, the same reason why Pickens left in the locker room.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Man, Yeah, I know, I know, but you know, got
to protect a franchise quarterback, you know, all right. Also,
you gotta go download the hard Rock Bet app. I
told you, you know, Buffalo plus one. Yes, please take that,
so hard Rock Bet right now you download the app.
You got college football going on, you got NBA College
hoops hockey, and of course Pro football and college football
also happening. Plus, you sign up today, you drop five
(05:16):
dollars bet in there. If it hits, you get one
hundred and fifty in bonus bets only at hard rock
Bet Plus, you get all your winnings too.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
They've got the hard Rock Bet Stats up too.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
That's loaded with all kinds of trends and streaks to
help you bet and make smart wagers too, which I love.
I love the streaks at hard rock Bets. Super cool.
And of course it's legal where I.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Am in New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
It's also the only one legal in Florida, and every
day more states are coming online with hard rock Bets.
So download the app today and enjoy hard Rock Bet
this week. Payable and bonus bets, not a cash offer
offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
In Florida, offered by the Seminal Hard Rock Digital LLC.
In other states.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Must be twenty one and physically president in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight admit it. In Indiana if you are something
you know has a gambling problem and one help call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, and New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
(06:07):
All right, let's get to the table of the tape.
When it comes to the props, here again, Boggs was
four and one a fantastic Monday night. Let's start with
James Cook. The rushing total seventy four and a half.
We're going over or underbugs.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
We're gonna go under. And I just think, you know,
most of these totals tick up the closer we get
to kickoff, so I think it'll get up to seventy
seven to seventy eight somewhere around there by the time
we're home. But last two games have been tough running
for the Bills sixteen for forty eight for Cook. Now
he had the three catches for sixty six in a touchdown.
He's still an incredible athlete in space. But then against
(06:39):
Miami also thirteen to fifty three. Houston is number three
and rushing yards allowed per game only eighty seven point one.
They're tied for second running backyards per carry at only
three point six and their fifth in PFF's run defense grade.
So I know you don't want to throw into Stingley
and Lassiter and the great secondary that they have, but
they don't make running very easy either the Texans. So
(07:03):
I think, just seeing the struggles the last two weeks
from the Bills run game, I'm gonna go under on
this total. Now, he'll probably get a bunch of chances,
and you know, James Cook's got great vision, he can
break one. But Houston tackles well. Really really, their defense
is what is keeping them in this season. So I
have a lot of respect for Houston's defense. So I
(07:24):
will go under on James Cook. And we're starting with
unders because Thursday games have been disgusting.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
That's fine, That's fine, all right. Last two weeks, Jayden
Higgins has fourteen targets. He's caught nine of them for
over one hundred yards and one score in the game
against Jacksonville. So what does the Higgins night look like
against Buffalo this week?
Speaker 2 (07:43):
More than twenty seven and a half, That's what I say.
He's passed this in three of his last four games.
He had the second highest amount of snaps and routes
run for Houston last week and seven targets at fourteen targets,
but it wasn't like ten and four. It was seven
and seven in both those games. And those both games.
Both those games were with Davis Mills at the helm, right,
(08:05):
So I just think he's on the field more. He's
built a nice rapport with Mills because Mills was running
a lot of second team to start the season. It
just works. So I really like Higgins in this game.
And we know Nico's coming in here, you know less
than one hundred percent, So if anything happens to Nico,
it's gonna be Higgins on the field constantly. So yeah,
(08:25):
I'm big on Higgins this year. This week and this
is a very low total for him.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, I love the total. I love the Higgins call.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
Honestly, Bonds, this might be my favorite one that you've
got lined up today.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
I think this one is almost a.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Lock, you know, because if you do think Buffalo can,
you know, put up some points there, You're gonna push
Mills a little bit to throw the football more. At
twenty seven and a half is kind of a joke
considering what the last two weeks have looked like.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
So I love this one. I think it's great. All right.
Next up, we'll talk about Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Now, Josh Allen obviously last week monstrous game, right, but
he kind of makes some mistakes. We know that's Josh Allen.
Sometimes try hard to make a play. Josh Allen ends
uppack firing a little bit sometimes on the Buffalo Bills
and they're win loss record. But what does it look
like tonight for him for an interception? Are we playing
that because he has turned the ball over the last
(09:11):
couple weeks?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Yeah, I really do like it. I'll say this when
I dug a little deeper, he has not been putting
the ball on Harm's way at all. I think he's
like fourth and turnover where he plays this season. But
the last two weeks have been tough, and we know
that Josh Allen, when he starts to look downfield, he's
gonna take some of those risks, and he might get
(09:33):
frustrated early against Houston and take a risk and throw
it deep. And that is a bad idea against Houston
because they are tied for third in interceptions with ten
right now. But most books have the juice on the
over at like minus one twenty the juice on the
under at like, you know, minus one oh five, so
(09:54):
they're showing you it's worse odds for him to throw
this pick. And we've only had four Thursday Night games
with no interceptions, right Dallas and Philly Week one coming
off a massive amount of rest. All that, but then
Washington Green Bay didn't throw pick, San Francisco and the
Rams that everything was complete in that game, and then
last week with the Jets and Patriots there were no
(10:16):
picks thrown. So that's it. Every other game had, every
Thursday night game has a pick because these guys are
playing on short rests. So I think we can get
one here on Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
In all fairness with the Jets. You know, you have
to throw the football to have picks, you know, just putting.
Speaker 3 (10:31):
That out there.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
I mean, they might have had a decent throwing game
of ad night. Mitchell had some hands.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
Taylor too, There was drops everywhere. I mean, I think
it's just kind of comical that they benchfields like. I
just think it's comical they didn't keep running him like
that opening drive that they had scripted where he was
running football. He was a problem. And I'm like, wow,
this is a little bit of a problem. And then
they just completely went away from it. And I'm thinking,
what is wrong with you, morons?
Speaker 3 (10:52):
What are you doing?
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Like you have fields? His biggest strength is running football.
He's strong, he's fast, he runs well in space.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
If you're gonna betch him anyway, run him into the
ground right, let him ride.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Now, just ridiculous. They have their head up their rear end.
All right, let's talk about Dalton Schultz here. Now he's
another guy's getting involved with Davis Mills. But the problem
is buffalo stingy against tight ends, bogs.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Very stingy. And I can't believe that the receptions prop
is four and a half. Now it's juice Dell at
a lot of spots, but I believe minus one thirty
on hard rock, so not bad here. Buffalo is number
one against tight ends, as you mentioned, two and a
half receptions twenty seven yards in point one on the touchdowns,
(11:36):
Hunter Henry got more yards two for forty six, Kelsey
four for sixty six, but those are the only two
to go over his yardage total. We're not taking the
yardage though. No tight ends over four catches against Buffalo
this year, so four and a half. I know Davis
Mills loves to rely on him and everything, but they
(11:57):
have been so good at down imposing tight ends. I
just don't buy that Schultz is going to get to
four and a half here, So give me the under
on four and a half receptions. It is a nice
one to pair with something else you like. I just
think it's very safe bet.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
All right.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Bog's the last guy we're going to talk about. His
Woody Marx and this Texans backfield certainly started to move
in his favor. But based on game script, potentially for
this game, where do you want to go? You want
to go for a rushing total, you want to go
for receiving total. What's the best way to bettle Woody
Marks this week.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
I kind of like both, but I'll say this, every
single projections I had I saw had him over on
receiving and slightly under on rushing, even though I kind
of like the rushing total too, But if I'm handing
out advice here, I will take the projections as well.
And the total is only eleven and a half on
the receiving yards, and the last two weeks in a
(12:47):
row he's had his highest a half percentage of the season.
He's been over twenty routes run and both of those
games projections are over this. And it's really been all
or nothing for him most of the time. Three games
with no catches, three games with one catch, but every
game with two catches he's past this. So Buffalo is
good against running backs, but they're still giving up around
thirty yards receiving to rbs every single game. So I
(13:09):
think eleven and a half is just too low for
the volume that Woody Marks is playing right now.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
All right, So again, if you want to see the projections,
go to the prop bet cheat sheet that's available right
now I'm bettingpros dot Com slash props, or just download
the apps. Think your sportsbooks are free, and take a
look at the prop bet cheat cheet. It gives you
the best lines, the best projections, the overs, the unders
for every single prop and every single game, and then
where you can bet them.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
And that's what makes betting pro such a useful tool.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
All right, let's go ahead and let's look at the
sg Joey p also a tool you can use to
not the joeyp version, but this is the SGP tool,
also available.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
At Betting pros, which is super fun.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
If you've got a way you think things are going
to go, you can find the bets to correlate with
that thought process, and then you get graded basically of
how good that SGP could be.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
And for me, I'm keeping it simples.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
You know I should have had last week, I had
one leg too many, So I'll just get a cut
off a lag here and take something simple, which is
Buffalo bills covering the five and a half, which is
what you're seeing in most places. But if again into
the one at hard Rock, you take the plus one
and then Josh Allen to score a touchdown, because Josh
Allen has been scoring a lot of touchdowns recently. If
he realized this he has seven touchdowns in his last
(14:16):
three games, rushing touchdowns everybody. So Josh Allen running amuck
literally right now, doing everything he can, and it's only
minus one ten. So on giving away my touchdown call
as well. So you put the touchdown for Josh Allen
along with the Bills covering the spread and you get
plus one ninety eight. So that's a little two to
one action for you on Thursday Night football. So I've
given away my touchdown call. I've given away my SGP Boggs.
(14:38):
Give away your touchdown call for Thursday Night Week twelve.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
How about Davis Mills at plus eleven hundred.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
I mean there's a lot of big ones this week.
He doesn't run a lot. I have Jayden Higgins five
to one. There's a bunch of them in a kind
of fun.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Yeah, there's a lot of good ones, but plus eleven hundred.
He doesn't run a bunch, but he has a rushing
touchdown this year. So if you're gonna give me the
those odds, I'll play them. So yeah, plus eleven hundred
on Davis Mills. Let's let's get tricky with it. I
like that.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
Yeah, And if you haven't downloaded the hard Rock bed app.
This is absolutely the week to do it. I'm telling
you right now, this is what you want to do
because we've got obviously a great opportunity here with the
line that they're giving you, so jump on it. While
you can also jump on our latest giveaway here at
Betting Pros because the kiraen Williams helmet is being given
away right now, and the way you can win that
(15:28):
is by going to Bettingpros dot com slash contest again.
This is from Pristine Auction dot Com, a great place
this holiday season to get all of your signed jerseys
helmets for the football fan in your life or just
for yourself, get yourself something nice, tell them Uncle Joey
sent you. Or you can get this for free again
if you go to betting Pros dot com slash contest,
complete the format, either download the Betting Pros app, leaver
(15:48):
review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to the
social media channels at Betting Pros on X on TikTok
and Betting Pros NFL on the IG. The more actions
you complete, the more entries you'll receive, and we'll be announcing
the winner right now here on the channel so subscribe
to Betting Pros and of course that way you never
miss a new piece of content. Ring the beltill it
goes ding. And when you subscribe and ring the bell,
we can let you know if you're the winner of
(16:09):
the new Kirn Williams helmet, our giveaway for November. That'll
do it for us, but the story of the game
goes on for Scott Bogman, I'm Joey p.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
We'll see you next time.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Kids.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting
Pros and Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to
our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. It is me Joey P. Joe P's a
pia and this is BP NFL. It's time to look
to Thursday Night football. Scott bog and I are going
to pick apart the Bills and Houston Texans. But we're
coming off a hot Monday night performance where Scott Bogmin
went four and one. I was all over the Cowboys
(00:21):
with the three and a half. We had a great day.
Ceedee Lamb touchdown everything we could possibly ask for, and
a whole lot of George Pickens. So, as a Steelers fan,
what's it like watching George Pickens put up a game
like that?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Unsurprising to me? I mean, he is a elite level talent.
If Dallas can get his head screwed on straight, he
is going to be an amazing wide receiver. I don't
think anybody's gonna be able to keep his head screwed
on straight. They already haven't. He got fined the week before,
and when they are inevitably bounced out of playoff contention,
(00:53):
he will be a gigantic baby man like he always is.
Speaker 3 (00:58):
And you know you gottay him a lot of money.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Very risky, very risky on set for that kind of
contract for somebody who's you know, getting benched before games
or Steelers getting in.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
For another white out. Joe George Pickens would look amazing
next to DK.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
He would.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
They just couldn't do it. He was late to everything.
I saw Jerry Dulac talking about he was late to
a game and they had asked he had to have
an MRI before this game, and they had asked Hamlin,
what's going to happen. He said, well, he's probably gonna
play a limited amount of snaps. But he showed up
like fifteen minutes before kickoff and they had to take her.
Speaker 3 (01:32):
That same story this morning.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Yeah, it's gross.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
So great player, well, great player, million dollars talents.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
In mcdermot's nah Coleman treatment is what he needs?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Oh yeah, well, I don't.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Know, Shavers look pretty good, but I kind of desperate
and deeply had to pick him up in one. All right,
let's talk about the next Thursday night football game here
that we've got. We know Scott Bogg's favorite thing in
the world is Thursday night football. But let's look at
the tail of the tape. Here, we've got Buffalo who's
seven and three. The Houston Texans are five and five.
Right now, Texans got a fighting for their life obviously,
(02:06):
the CJ. Stroud injury big impactful moment here. So you're
getting Houston plus six and a half even though they're
at home. You're getting forty three and a half for
the over, forty four and a half for the under,
plus two fifty for the money line. Now, the spread
here on Buffalo ranges. I've seen it on betting pros
at minus three and a half all the way to minus.
Speaker 3 (02:25):
Five and a half.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
But at hard Rock Bet, our sponsor, you can get
plus one on Buffalo right now. Still, I'm locking that in.
That's why I love hard Rock Bet. We'll tell you
more about our sponsor later on, but hard Rock Bet
has the best line. So I'm just gonna lock in
that Buffalo at plus one and take it to the bank.
I like that Buffalo had to bounce back last week
at home. Hopefully you know that gives them a little
(02:48):
bit of momentum going into this game. And I just
think although the Texans defense is fantastic, Josh Allen will
make it up places for the Buffalo Bills to win
this road game. Now, wouildch shock me if the Houston
Texans beat them? No, because the Buffalo Bills have dropped
a lot of games this year. Then I was shocked
that they lost Miami, even New England to a certain degree,
I was kind of shocked that they did not take
(03:09):
it to the Patriots. So, Bogs, where do you stand
on the lines on this game?
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Over underspread? What do you like?
Speaker 2 (03:14):
I mean, I think I like the home team because
right now I see you can get him at plus
six and a half for Houston. So I just think
that the score plays so low. It's Thursday night, right,
There's weird stuff that happens on Thursday, obviously, So I
just I think if you've given me more than three
and a half for the Texans at home, I'm gonna
(03:35):
take it. Even with Davis Mills, I don't know that
this year that there has been a massive difference between CJ.
Stroud and Davis Mills. I think they've been pretty comparable.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
That's depressing. I just wanted to let that sit in
the ether for a moment. Don't care for that. The
Nico Collins volume the last couple weeks has been a
real uptick too.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
What is that offense?
Speaker 1 (03:55):
I guess we'll get into the props and things like that,
but you know, his health obviously not one hundred percent
one hundred percent this time of year typically anyway, But
what do you think that kind of impact makes on
this game too? Is we're waiting for more clarity here
entering Thursday.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, I mean, I don't really like obviously Nico being down,
but I think we've seen more talent on the field recently,
with Higgins getting more looks, Woody Marks getting more looks
as well. They're they're going towards the youth that works.
So I think the deeper we get into the season,
the less we'll see of Kirk, the more we'll see
of nol you know. So I just think that they're
(04:29):
they're now realizing, Okay, look, if the rookies are, you know,
up to speed on everything we do here, let's get
him on the field because this is why we drafted them.
So they still need to fix the O line in
the offseason. The Texans so well, they.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Had to do it last year and the year before
that too. Maybe stop trading offensive lineman and then captains
of your team in the off season. Maybe that would
be a good thing to.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Do, the same reason why Pickens left in the locker room.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Man, Yeah, I know, I know, but you know, got
to protect a franchise quarterback, you know, all right. Also,
you gotta go download the hard Rock Bet app. I
told you, you know, Buffalo plus one. Yes, please take that,
so hard Rock Bet right now you download the app.
You got college football going on, you got NBA College
hoops hockey, and of course Pro football and college football
also happening. Plus, you sign up today, you drop five
(05:16):
dollars bet in there. If it hits, you get one
hundred and fifty in bonus bets only at hard rock
Bet Plus, you get all your winnings too.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
They've got the hard Rock Bet Stats up too.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
That's loaded with all kinds of trends and streaks to
help you bet and make smart wagers too, which I love.
I love the streaks at hard rock Bets. Super cool.
And of course it's legal where I.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Am in New Jersey.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
It's also the only one legal in Florida, and every
day more states are coming online with hard rock Bets.
So download the app today and enjoy hard Rock Bet
this week. Payable and bonus bets, not a cash offer
offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
In Florida, offered by the Seminal Hard Rock Digital LLC.
In other states.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Must be twenty one and physically president in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and
conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida called one eight
eight eight admit it. In Indiana if you are something
you know has a gambling problem and one help call
one eight hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called
one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, and New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.
(06:07):
All right, let's get to the table of the tape.
When it comes to the props, here again, Boggs was
four and one a fantastic Monday night. Let's start with
James Cook. The rushing total seventy four and a half.
We're going over or underbugs.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
We're gonna go under. And I just think, you know,
most of these totals tick up the closer we get
to kickoff, so I think it'll get up to seventy
seven to seventy eight somewhere around there by the time
we're home. But last two games have been tough running
for the Bills sixteen for forty eight for Cook. Now
he had the three catches for sixty six in a touchdown.
He's still an incredible athlete in space. But then against
(06:39):
Miami also thirteen to fifty three. Houston is number three
and rushing yards allowed per game only eighty seven point one.
They're tied for second running backyards per carry at only
three point six and their fifth in PFF's run defense grade.
So I know you don't want to throw into Stingley
and Lassiter and the great secondary that they have, but
they don't make running very easy either the Texans. So
(07:03):
I think, just seeing the struggles the last two weeks
from the Bills run game, I'm gonna go under on
this total. Now, he'll probably get a bunch of chances,
and you know, James Cook's got great vision, he can
break one. But Houston tackles well. Really really, their defense
is what is keeping them in this season. So I
have a lot of respect for Houston's defense. So I
(07:24):
will go under on James Cook. And we're starting with
unders because Thursday games have been disgusting.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
That's fine, That's fine, all right. Last two weeks, Jayden
Higgins has fourteen targets. He's caught nine of them for
over one hundred yards and one score in the game
against Jacksonville. So what does the Higgins night look like
against Buffalo this week?
Speaker 2 (07:43):
More than twenty seven and a half, That's what I say.
He's passed this in three of his last four games.
He had the second highest amount of snaps and routes
run for Houston last week and seven targets at fourteen targets,
but it wasn't like ten and four. It was seven
and seven in both those games. And those both games.
Both those games were with Davis Mills at the helm, right,
(08:05):
So I just think he's on the field more. He's
built a nice rapport with Mills because Mills was running
a lot of second team to start the season. It
just works. So I really like Higgins in this game.
And we know Nico's coming in here, you know less
than one hundred percent, So if anything happens to Nico,
it's gonna be Higgins on the field constantly. So yeah,
(08:25):
I'm big on Higgins this year. This week and this
is a very low total for him.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
Yeah, I love the total. I love the Higgins call.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
Honestly, Bonds, this might be my favorite one that you've
got lined up today.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
I think this one is almost a.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
Lock, you know, because if you do think Buffalo can,
you know, put up some points there, You're gonna push
Mills a little bit to throw the football more. At
twenty seven and a half is kind of a joke
considering what the last two weeks have looked like.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
So I love this one. I think it's great. All right.
Next up, we'll talk about Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
Now, Josh Allen obviously last week monstrous game, right, but
he kind of makes some mistakes. We know that's Josh Allen.
Sometimes try hard to make a play. Josh Allen ends
uppack firing a little bit sometimes on the Buffalo Bills
and they're win loss record. But what does it look
like tonight for him for an interception? Are we playing
that because he has turned the ball over the last
(09:11):
couple weeks?
Speaker 2 (09:12):
Yeah, I really do like it. I'll say this when
I dug a little deeper, he has not been putting
the ball on Harm's way at all. I think he's
like fourth and turnover where he plays this season. But
the last two weeks have been tough, and we know
that Josh Allen, when he starts to look downfield, he's
gonna take some of those risks, and he might get
(09:33):
frustrated early against Houston and take a risk and throw
it deep. And that is a bad idea against Houston
because they are tied for third in interceptions with ten
right now. But most books have the juice on the
over at like minus one twenty the juice on the
under at like, you know, minus one oh five, so
(09:54):
they're showing you it's worse odds for him to throw
this pick. And we've only had four Thursday Night games
with no interceptions, right Dallas and Philly Week one coming
off a massive amount of rest. All that, but then
Washington Green Bay didn't throw pick, San Francisco and the
Rams that everything was complete in that game, and then
last week with the Jets and Patriots there were no
(10:16):
picks thrown. So that's it. Every other game had, every
Thursday night game has a pick because these guys are
playing on short rests. So I think we can get
one here on Josh Allen.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
In all fairness with the Jets. You know, you have
to throw the football to have picks, you know, just putting.
Speaker 3 (10:31):
That out there.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
I mean, they might have had a decent throwing game
of ad night. Mitchell had some hands.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
Taylor too, There was drops everywhere. I mean, I think
it's just kind of comical that they benchfields like. I
just think it's comical they didn't keep running him like
that opening drive that they had scripted where he was
running football. He was a problem. And I'm like, wow,
this is a little bit of a problem. And then
they just completely went away from it. And I'm thinking,
what is wrong with you, morons?
Speaker 3 (10:52):
What are you doing?
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Like you have fields? His biggest strength is running football.
He's strong, he's fast, he runs well in space.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
If you're gonna betch him anyway, run him into the
ground right, let him ride.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Now, just ridiculous. They have their head up their rear end.
All right, let's talk about Dalton Schultz here. Now he's
another guy's getting involved with Davis Mills. But the problem
is buffalo stingy against tight ends, bogs.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Very stingy. And I can't believe that the receptions prop
is four and a half. Now it's juice Dell at
a lot of spots, but I believe minus one thirty
on hard rock, so not bad here. Buffalo is number
one against tight ends, as you mentioned, two and a
half receptions twenty seven yards in point one on the touchdowns,
(11:36):
Hunter Henry got more yards two for forty six, Kelsey
four for sixty six, but those are the only two
to go over his yardage total. We're not taking the
yardage though. No tight ends over four catches against Buffalo
this year, so four and a half. I know Davis
Mills loves to rely on him and everything, but they
(11:57):
have been so good at down imposing tight ends. I
just don't buy that Schultz is going to get to
four and a half here, So give me the under
on four and a half receptions. It is a nice
one to pair with something else you like. I just
think it's very safe bet.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
All right.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Bog's the last guy we're going to talk about. His
Woody Marx and this Texans backfield certainly started to move
in his favor. But based on game script, potentially for
this game, where do you want to go? You want
to go for a rushing total, you want to go
for receiving total. What's the best way to bettle Woody
Marks this week.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
I kind of like both, but I'll say this, every
single projections I had I saw had him over on
receiving and slightly under on rushing, even though I kind
of like the rushing total too, But if I'm handing
out advice here, I will take the projections as well.
And the total is only eleven and a half on
the receiving yards, and the last two weeks in a
(12:47):
row he's had his highest a half percentage of the season.
He's been over twenty routes run and both of those
games projections are over this. And it's really been all
or nothing for him most of the time. Three games
with no catches, three games with one catch, but every
game with two catches he's past this. So Buffalo is
good against running backs, but they're still giving up around
thirty yards receiving to rbs every single game. So I
(13:09):
think eleven and a half is just too low for
the volume that Woody Marks is playing right now.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
All right, So again, if you want to see the projections,
go to the prop bet cheat sheet that's available right
now I'm bettingpros dot Com slash props, or just download
the apps. Think your sportsbooks are free, and take a
look at the prop bet cheat cheet. It gives you
the best lines, the best projections, the overs, the unders
for every single prop and every single game, and then
where you can bet them.
Speaker 3 (13:31):
And that's what makes betting pro such a useful tool.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
All right, let's go ahead and let's look at the
sg Joey p also a tool you can use to
not the joeyp version, but this is the SGP tool,
also available.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
At Betting pros, which is super fun.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
If you've got a way you think things are going
to go, you can find the bets to correlate with
that thought process, and then you get graded basically of
how good that SGP could be.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
And for me, I'm keeping it simples.
Speaker 1 (13:54):
You know I should have had last week, I had
one leg too many, So I'll just get a cut
off a lag here and take something simple, which is
Buffalo bills covering the five and a half, which is
what you're seeing in most places. But if again into
the one at hard Rock, you take the plus one
and then Josh Allen to score a touchdown, because Josh
Allen has been scoring a lot of touchdowns recently. If
he realized this he has seven touchdowns in his last
(14:16):
three games, rushing touchdowns everybody. So Josh Allen running amuck
literally right now, doing everything he can, and it's only
minus one ten. So on giving away my touchdown call
as well. So you put the touchdown for Josh Allen
along with the Bills covering the spread and you get
plus one ninety eight. So that's a little two to
one action for you on Thursday Night football. So I've
given away my touchdown call. I've given away my SGP Boggs.
(14:38):
Give away your touchdown call for Thursday Night Week twelve.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
How about Davis Mills at plus eleven hundred.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
I mean there's a lot of big ones this week.
He doesn't run a lot. I have Jayden Higgins five
to one. There's a bunch of them in a kind
of fun.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Yeah, there's a lot of good ones, but plus eleven hundred.
He doesn't run a bunch, but he has a rushing
touchdown this year. So if you're gonna give me the
those odds, I'll play them. So yeah, plus eleven hundred
on Davis Mills. Let's let's get tricky with it. I
like that.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
Yeah, And if you haven't downloaded the hard Rock bed app.
This is absolutely the week to do it. I'm telling
you right now, this is what you want to do
because we've got obviously a great opportunity here with the
line that they're giving you, so jump on it. While
you can also jump on our latest giveaway here at
Betting Pros because the kiraen Williams helmet is being given
away right now, and the way you can win that
(15:28):
is by going to Bettingpros dot com slash contest again.
This is from Pristine Auction dot Com, a great place
this holiday season to get all of your signed jerseys
helmets for the football fan in your life or just
for yourself, get yourself something nice, tell them Uncle Joey
sent you. Or you can get this for free again
if you go to betting Pros dot com slash contest,
complete the format, either download the Betting Pros app, leaver
(15:48):
review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe to the
social media channels at Betting Pros on X on TikTok
and Betting Pros NFL on the IG. The more actions
you complete, the more entries you'll receive, and we'll be announcing
the winner right now here on the channel so subscribe
to Betting Pros and of course that way you never
miss a new piece of content. Ring the beltill it
goes ding. And when you subscribe and ring the bell,
we can let you know if you're the winner of
(16:09):
the new Kirn Williams helmet, our giveaway for November. That'll
do it for us, but the story of the game
goes on for Scott Bogman, I'm Joey p.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
We'll see you next time.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Kids.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify. Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting
Pros and Instagram at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to
our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Las Culturistas with Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang
Ding dong! Join your culture consultants, Matt Rogers and Bowen Yang, on an unforgettable journey into the beating heart of CULTURE. Alongside sizzling special guests, they GET INTO the hottest pop-culture moments of the day and the formative cultural experiences that turned them into Culturistas. Produced by the Big Money Players Network and iHeartRadio.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.