February 5, 2026 • 28 mins
Join Joe Pisapia and Andrew Erickson as they highlight their favorite bets to make ahead of Super Bowl LX between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Under 45.5 - 0:03:32
Patriots +4.5 - 0:06:33
Patriots ML - 0:07:40
Patriots Over 20.5 - 0:11:23
Patriots +6.5 + Game Total Under 52.5 - 0:12:09
BettingPros Discord - 0:14:59
1st Half Total Under 23.5 - 0:15:10
K’Lavon Chaisson Sack - 0:17:44
Seattle Over 3.5 Sacks - 0:19:43
Hard Rock Best Bet of the Week - 0:21:01
Patriots +4.5 - 0:22:06
Patriots ML - 0:22:33
Joe’s Upset Special - 0:25:34
Parlay of the Week - 0:26:04
Outro - 0:27:39
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. And this b Joey P joe P Zapia,
and this is BP NFL. It's Super Bowl Week and
it's time for our best bets. Andrew Erics and I
are here. And for those of you saying that we're homers,
only one of us is wearing a Patriots sweatshirt on
today's show. But here's a thing. I've seen some of
the YouTube comments, I've heard some of the noise. I'm
(00:23):
also the guy that was telling you an and I
won money on the New York Football Giants being the
Patriots in the Super Bowl. I also won money on
the Philadelphia Eagles, if you can believe it, or not
being the Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is about
one thing. This is about winning, not about who wins.
It's about us winning. That's what it is. It's us
against the books. That's what it always is here. That
(00:44):
being said, however we feel about this game is compartmentalized
as fans because this is business. Andrew, it's not personal.
That's how I'm entering this. I understand that a lot
of people, we talk to people on the street in
New Orleans. We had a whole fun thing there. It
was kind of split. I would say sixty forty Seattle
people were on. But the one thing that I'm still
(01:06):
tired of hearing about is the Seattle Seahawks defense and
not hearing about the Patriots defense mentioned in similar breath,
because statistically speaking, Patriots defense is pretty damn good, and
they have played incredible football the last couple of weeks,
and people want to say, well, look at the quarterbacks
they played against. You can only play who they put
in front of you. But Seattle has allowed sixteen or
(01:27):
fewer points in six of its past eight games. New
England has allowed sixteen or fewer points each of his
last five games. Seattle has the six ben's defense in
the NFL in terms of yards per game and a
league low seventeen point two points per game. But the
Ringle Patriots have an eighth best defense in two hundred
and ninety two excuse me, two hundred ninety five point
two yards per game, eighteen point eight points per game.
(01:49):
That's fourth best. So to me, if you want to
talk about defense, this is a much more inclusive conversation
your thoughts.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
No, I agree, and that's why. I know that I
don't want to bury the lead here, but our picks
as we go to the totals, I like the under,
and you'd like the under in the game at forty
five and a half points, it kind of feels like
it's a bit in no man's land where a total
at this number is not projecting, Oh, this is going
to be a shootout, because that's usually when you get
to the four to eight and a half, forty nine
and a halfs or a fifty and a half point total,
(02:17):
those numbers usually scream okay, this game could get kind
of nutty here. We could see a lot of points
on both sides, versus like every Pittsburgh Steelers game where oh,
thirty nine and a half points, this game is going
to be a dud, or any Cleveland Browns home game.
So kind of teetering the line. So I do think
that there's value here going with the under if you
do think that both of these defenses prevail here. Good
Seattle is the four straight top ten defense the Patriots
(02:39):
have faced in the postseason, and their offense has not
looked that great.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
I know that the weather has played a role in that,
but their offense is averaging under sixteen points per game. Again,
it's boosted overall by that pick six against the Houston Texans,
but offensively they're not scoring anywhere near twenty points per game.
The two defenses have allowed, on average this year eighteen
points per game eighteen plus eighteen. Quick through the math, Joe,
(03:04):
what is that? It's very under forty five and a
half points?
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Yes, yes, it is. Also just looking at the offensive too,
and how they stack up. Seattle the third most points
per game, yards per game, they were seventh, passing yards
per game, eighth. New England second in points per game,
they were third in yards per game, and they were
fourth in passing yards per game. So I just think
this is a little bit more even than people realize,
(03:29):
and that's gonna bring us right into our best bets here.
So let's talk about the first one here. I'm in
on the under forty five and a half year in
the under, I'm getting it, but just by the chinny
chin chin, because my final is twenty four to twenty.
I do believe that's gonna be the final scorer of
this game. So I am just squeaking in to that under,
not by much. Andrew, why is it an under for you.
I mean, I've laid out here all the defenses and
(03:51):
how close they are. I do think there will be
some turnovers in this game too, and that stunts drives
and sometimes changes the dynamic of games. But let's talk
about your reasons of why you I think it's also
going to be an under in this one.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Two defensive minded head coaches going head to head, Mike
McDonald against Mike Rabel. They both come from defensive backgrounds,
and I think that matters a lot, because I don't
think that they open up the first quarter of the
game thinking, Okay, well, we have to score a ton
of points here to win this game. I think that
they both believe, hey, we have faith in our defense
and that if we keep this game tight, we can
(04:22):
win in the fourth quarter. So I think that's kind
of the mindset of both of these teams, especially with Ken.
Nobody wants to talk or shouldn't say, nobody wants to
talk about it's try being overblown. But both quarterbacks like
have these injuries that we don't know if they're real,
they're not real.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
We're not really sure.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
I guess we'll find out together whether these injuries mattered
or not. But it's just another reason to kind of
look at, okay, if it's a little bit lower scoring,
and to me to the optics of this game, it
just doesn't scream shootout, right. I think that's been the
least talked about narrative and potential path for this game
where I've heard a lot of shows again talking about
the Seattle Seahawks, a lot of media talking about the Seahawks.
(04:58):
ESPN fifty eight of their sixty let's pick the Seattle
Seahawks to win, and the two that pick the Patriots
were on the Patriots at one point. So again that's.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Been Bruski, and who was the other one, I don't know.
I know definitely it was Bruski, but I know it
was brusk because I saw him talking about it on
another channel.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Yeah, But besides that type of point there, it's it
just doesn't seem unless the way I see it going
over is it barely just squeaks over where you get
like a twenty seven to twenty finish, so it's not
like a shootout or again, I think this is very
much in the range of outcomes. I do think that
there's a chance that Seattle does kill the Patriots, And
oh no, I guess it really was a cupcake schedule
for the newman the Patriots. All yeah, I do think
(05:38):
that that's possible. But my prediction question when we talk
about the spreads and the picks and who wins, I
think that the Patriots win in a tight game.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
You know, Andrew. I'm also gonna say this too. Two
of the three opponents, or actually say both of the opponents,
not even two. Two of two that Seattle faced in
the playoffs were in division opponents from this year. So
those games are always so different in terms of the
way they play because all of those teams are always
built to face those indivision opponents. And they have handled
the forty nine ers time and time again like they
(06:07):
have figured out they've cracked the code, right, whatever it is.
With the forty nine ers, Seattle has their number. And
with the Rams, you always know what's going to be
a dogfight, like you know how it's gonna be. And
I think that there's something different too. Whenever you have
aud of conference games, they tend to play a little
bit differently, and when you have in division games, they
tend to play a little bit differently. The familiarity is
(06:27):
very important, I think to some of these totals that
you get sometimes, so I just want to throw that
out there for the listening audience as well. All right,
next one here, probably for me, I think the easiest
bet to make, which is the wingle Patriots plus four
and a half at minus one oh eight. Again, you
can find all these lines over Betting Pros. Make sure
you subscribe to the podcast, make sure you go check
out BP and make sure you download the app too,
so you can track all your bets. You can make
(06:48):
all your bets. You can sync all your sports books
for free with the Betting Pros app and find the
best numbers for every single one of these bets. But
all this stuff to me too. Again, if this game
even plays close, and let's say the Patriots fall short
and I'm wrong here and they don't come out with
a victory, I'm still making money. I'm still winning. Four
and a half is a nice cushion. I think this
team has a lot of respect for itself. I think
(07:08):
Mike Rabel will have a good game plan. I think
Josh McDaniels, who has coached in almost double digit Super
bowls now, is going to have a good game plan,
and I think that they're gonna throw a lot of
different coverages at Sam Donald, a lot of different blitz packages.
I think that offensive line is kind of mid tier
for the Seattle Seahawks. That's just my opinion of it.
And I think Sam Darnald is prone to some turnovers
(07:29):
and prone to pressure. So for me, that's another reason
why I think New Engle can keep this close. And
I do think there will be a turnover on that
Seattle side. More on that to come. Andrew, what's your
number two bet here for the Super Bowl?
Speaker 2 (07:40):
I agree with you that if I'm picking against the spread,
I definitely want the Patriots as the underdogs here with
the point, especially when it's at four and a half.
I think that that line is just a little bit
too high. You look at the look Ahead Lions before
the conference championship games played out in this theoretical Super
Bowl matchup, it was Seattle laying my three and a half.
And I don't really think that we should be taking
(08:02):
so much from Okay, that Denver Blizzard game where it
was really hard to get an understanding. Okay, yeah, the
offensive looked great, Well, nobody can really move the ball
effectively and then you look at the Seahawks to your point, again,
they've played very well against the Los Angeles Rams, so
not trying to over evaluate.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Okay, well, this.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Is what they've done against the Rams. Well, they played
the Rams a lot different how they play other teams.
And Mike McDonald's specifically eight and oh in rematches in
the same season, so that is where he's been lights
out facing the second the team for the second time,
in this case the third time. So that's something to
kind of keep in mind. Maybe not overinflating the Seahawks
for beating again a very good Rams team, but one
(08:38):
team that they match up very well against. And I
don't think that that really is the case as much
with the New England Patriots. I think that especially on
the defensive side, the Patriots can go match up well
with the Seahawks offense. They can stop the run and
they can limit Kenneth Walker. You can't run on a
healthy Patriots run defense. You can't do it with Spallane
and Tunga and Milton Williams and Christian barrymore. They're gonna
(08:59):
shut down the run and that that then creates a
strict drop back passing game with less play action with
Sam Darnold, and if Christian Gonzalez can only slow down
JSN in some capacity, especially in third and fourth downs,
then yeah, I think there's an advantage to the Patriots
defense here. So and Drake May is always a X
factor way he can make plays with his legs, So
that's the one thing that I'm kind of looking forward
(09:20):
to because that was never a case with Tom Brady.
And again, how did you be Tom Brady? You got
pressure up the middle, and that can still happen with
Drake May. But the thing is he has the mobility
and the offscript playmaking ability to get the ball downfield.
And we just saw the Seas defense, specifically their secondary
kind of get ripped a little bit by Matthew Stafford
(09:40):
in the NFC Championship game. So those are some of
the reasons why I like the Patriots. And with the points,
I think just straight up on the money line because
I think it's going to be a close game, and
if it's a close game, I can get a plus
two hundred or nearly two to one US. So the
pitch just to win outright, and I think this game
is closer to a coin flip than the lines would suggest,
So I like the value there. If you like Seattle,
(10:01):
I would tease it. I would go up to teasing
it to Seattle minus six and a half, Seattle minus seven. Again,
if everyone thinks that they're going to just smoke them,
then yeah, then bettt don't take it seawkx minus four
and half because if they do dominate and it really
was the cupcake schedule that the reason why the Patriots
are here, then you should feel comfortable laying that many
points if you consider it Seattle the much more dominant team.
So that's just my basic read on the game. I
(10:22):
think that there are scenarios where you can get really
high payouts, whether you like the Seahawks or whether you
like the Patriots, because that's the way that I see
this game playing out most likely.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Well, look, I also think you know that's Spalaane injury.
Him being on the field is huge from a leadership standpoint.
He's one of those motor guys and one of those
heart and soul kind of guys there. And the other
thing too, is you know you mentioned about the secondary too.
I think you also got to talk about some of
the discipline between the two teams as well, because you
know in that game there against the Rams, you know
when Treek Woollen has that penalty, and I'm not just
(10:53):
singling out one guy, but you know, the lack of
discipline in these kind of big games really shows up.
And I think that's where Vetter in coaching coaches that
have played in Super Bowls, coaches super Bowls before, really
make a big difference here because I think sometimes emotions
run really high, and you saw it in the NFC
Championship game. And being able to limit those mistakes and
penalties and just bad decision making process to playing with
(11:14):
a certain kind of focus and getting your team on
the right page, I think really matters quite a bit. Again,
it's just it's my opinion, but it's also based in
a lot of fact here all right, Next up here,
my third favorite bet is doing a Patriots total points
over twenty and a half at minus one h two.
I do think we get a defensive score here by
the Patriots. I see a turnover, I see a pick
(11:35):
six in the future, and if you hit that, it's
plus eight to fifty for the Patriots defensive score a touchdown.
I like that a lot. So that is to me
one of my favorite bets here in the Super Bowl,
and I think that seven is the one that gets
them over this twenty and a half. I do think
that the Seattle Seahawks defense is going to hit Drake May.
I do think they're gonna give him problems. I think
they will eke out some more points. It will have
(11:56):
some big plays, as Andrew mentioned before. But I do
think think inevitably it is the defensive score that is
the difference in this game, and the defensive score is
the one that carries them over that twenty and a
half Marker, Andrew, what's your third bet here for Super
Bowl sixty?
Speaker 2 (12:10):
So my third best bet is a parlay same game
parlay where I'm moving these numbers a little bit into
my favor. So I like the Patriots. I want to
give them more points plus six and a half. The
Patriots this season, Joe, have not lost the game by
more than seven points. They have not lost a game
by more than one score all season. Both these teams
have played in extremely close games when they've been on
(12:31):
the losing side. Every game that they have played has
been within one score, and ironically, their biggest losses of
the season both happened in Week one so we're as
far removed as possible from these teams getting quote unquote
like blowing out and dominating games. And how funny is
it that we look back at some of these bad
performances from these teams. Patriots lost to the Raiders in
Week one, who hold the number one draft pick, and
(12:54):
don't forget who almost lost. And because I remember we
were on the show, we talked about that six leg
parlay of all the money line bets, and what was
the one that was the sweatiest. It was the Seahawks
money line against the Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
And they were a field goal.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
Away from blowing that game.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
So again in their own building, mind you, Yes, in
their own building. Let's not forget that. Yes, so this
impenetrable defense almost lost the game to Philip Rivers. Off
the couch. Oh my god, it's the legion of Boom.
Let's calm down already. It's a good def a very
good defense. This is not the Legion of Boom. This
is not the two thousand Ravens, it's not the eighty
(13:33):
five Bears's calm down, it's pump the brakes a little bit.
Bro I'm afraid I've got all Steven Smith there for
a second, just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Again, I like the Patriots. They've covered plus three and
a half, so even moving the line a little bit,
and ninety percent of their games played this season, So
again more backing of just keeping this game within a
touchdown that six and a half covers there, and then
we look at the total. If I move it up
to taking the under at fifty two and a half points,
that is kind of the most profitable number when you
look at both of these teams. For the Seattle Seahawks,
(14:04):
seventy one percent of their games have finished under fifty
two and a half points, and really it's only failed
when they've been in true shootout game environments. And at
fifty two and a half. For the Patriots, they've hit
under that number in eighty one percent of their games.
So you put those two together, you get plus odds
and you're plus one twenty, which I really like. Again,
(14:26):
So if you're putting crafting all these crazy same game parlays,
why don't you take one that's more likely to be
a layup in my estimation, If you like the Pats,
just to keep it with a touchdown move the total
up if you think it's going to be a little
bit more lower scoring. I like that plus six and
a half of the pats and game total going under
fifty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Yeah, that's gimme right there, that's give me stuff. I
like that, Andrew, very nice. Safe, you know what. It's
good to have some safe floor of a couple bets
you want to make in the Super Bowl, and then
you can have that fun one. They can have that
crazy one or two other things you want to bet on.
But having that safe floor of I think three wagers
is really smart. Don't forget. If you're looking for more wagering,
help to our discords here bettingpros dot com, slash Chat.
(15:04):
It's free, it's fun. We've got a million picks in
there for the Super Bowl. We got all kinds of
chats going on there, so go check it out today.
My fourth pick, first half total under twenty three and
a half. Now, this one's the heaviest juice, So again,
I think this is safe. It's minus one forty. I
don't love the juice, but if you're somebody that just
wants to sit back and enjoy, I think this is
the one for you. Typically speaking, that first quarter, especially
(15:25):
with the two week layoff, everybody's a little flat. You know,
they're standing out there forever for the you know, the
opening acts and the you know, America the beautiful and
then you have the national anthem, and then we're still
standing around there. It's a lot, so teams tend to
come out a little bit flat here, especially in that
first quarter. So I think this is one that's gonna
move as well. You'll see this number shrink after that
(15:48):
first quarter is over, and I would get in it
on it now. It's easy, it's fun. I just want
to take it again. Typically, the Super Bowl does not
get off to a riproar and start, and if it doesn't,
then it's gonna take a little while for things to
open up in the second quarter. And I just don't
know what these defenses, how much is going to open up.
So I'm playing into the hands of the defense. I'm
playing into the hands of history, which is typically speaking,
everyone standing around forever. Two week layoffs not great for everybody.
(16:09):
So a little bit of flattness there, a little bit
of nerves, a little bit of super Bowl Jitter's got
to get worked out there in that first quarter, Andrew,
what is your next bet here for the people for.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Super Bowl sixty, I am handholding with you on the
first half under twenty three and a half points. I
think back to a lot of these Patriots Super Bowls.
A lot of them were duds in the first quarter
where you look up and say zero zero, and you
know who called a lot of the offensive plays for
the Patriots in those games. It was Josh McDaniels. So
I'm not necessarily looking at that as Patriots don't have
(16:38):
high scoring first halves because of Bill belichip to Tom
Brady what Josh McDaniels had a role in that. You
look at the Patriots in the first half of Super
Bowls that were called by Josh McDaniels as the OC
and offensive plague caller. They haven't scored more than fourteen
points for the five games they scored twelve or fewer
points in the first half. Again, going back to why
we like the total game going under, we have two
(17:00):
defensive mind to head coaches. To me, I think that
in the beginning script for offenses, both of these teams
are going to look to run the football, whether they're
efficient or not. I think they want to get an
idea of Okay, what are they looking at us on defense,
and then they're going to think about taking their strikes
either at the end of the second quarter or in
the second half when they're were like, look for opportunities
(17:21):
to create explosive plays. Because again back to the point
where we like the total game going under, I think
that they both believe, both coaches believe that their defenses
can win if they keep it close, right, and they
can ultimately win in a one of these closer matchups.
So I like the first half under here as well.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
All right, So same page there, all right. Now tomorrow show,
obviously on Friday, we have the big prop show. So
I'm gonna give you one because I know the boys
aren't going to give you defensive stuff. I know those guys.
This is an honor of my boy, Scott Bogman. Okay,
we're going to defense here. Clavon Chase on the record
a sack and plus one seventy eight. I really think
he is going to get in there and make something happen.
He has played phenomenal football down the stretch. This one's
(18:01):
big time prospect kind of floundered a little bit back
in the day. He has found a home in this
Mike Vrabel New England Patriots offense defense, excuse me? And
he is really in a spot now where he is
wreaking habit. He is making things happen. And I think
Chase On gets home on Sam Darnold once in this game.
And you're almost getting two to one on this answer.
I love this bet. Now. It's not a game bet,
but it's also not an offensive bet. And I want
(18:24):
everybody to think outside the box. It's not all about
the offenses. And we're talking about these great defenses, yet
nobody's betting on defensive stuff. What are we doing here? Now?
I sound like Dick vital who is a little bit
closer to me in terms of physical appearance. I would
think me and Dick Vitale could be cousins, could definitely
be some sort of cousins there. Yeah, baby, let's make
the defensive picks there, Baby, Dick VI tell used to
(18:44):
do basketball? Do you know who that is? Andrew? Do
I know what basketball is? No Dick VII talent? Do
you know Dick vital is? You don't know?
Speaker 2 (18:51):
I'm sure that he's showed me a picture, all right.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Google Dick Vitale and then tell me we can't be cousins. Good.
I want you to google it. I want the live
reaction of you googling Dick Vitel and you tell me
if we could be cousins. I'm pretty sure we could be,
all right, but clayvon Jason to get a sack again.
Almost two to one plus one seventy eight. Y're getting
right now? Good stuff there, Andrew Erickson, did you find
the picture of Dick.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Vital Yeah, yeah, yeah, I can see you guys. Be
you okay, yeah, you Dick Vitel cousin Vinnie. It all
makes sense all of a sudden.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
And I have multiple cousins named Vinnie. So I put
that three surris. If you were set the over under
two and a half, it was the over on cousins
that I have named Vinnie. All right, let's get to
Andrew's last pick, and then we're gonna give you our
favorite picks of the Super Bowl in a second here,
along with a little parlay as well. So Andrew will
give us the fifth and final one you got on
your board.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
I'm going to betting against my Patriots in this particular situation,
Gonna go with the Seattle Seahawks have over three and
a half sacks. You put it with the crop in there,
so I figure, hey, why don't I lay one in
there as well? Plus one, it's twenty eight. You look
at Drake megainst these top defenses all year long, so
this is even before the playoffs because each other time
they face the top ten defense was the Cleveland Browns
and Miles Garrett had a feast in that game. I
(20:05):
remember watching that and be like, man, this dude is
a one man wrecking machine. Will Campbell was probably one
of his worst games during the regular season. But Drake
May has taken at least five sacks when facing top
ten defenses this season. So I like the over, especially
at plus money, for Seattle to get at least four sacks.
I think they get at least five just based on
the trends that we've seen with Drake May against some
of these top tier defenses. Again, look it's going to
(20:27):
be he's gonna get pressured, Like we know that's going
to happen. The Patriots offensive line is at a big
disadvantage against this really deep Seahawks defensive line, especially in
the second half of the game when those guys have
been out there for all of the snaps and Seattle, yeah,
it doesn't really have those like Miles Garrett type player,
but they have a lot of really strong depth that
they have a lot of guys, you know, five or
(20:47):
six guys deep that can really get after the pass,
get after the passer, especially when they're not playing on
every single down. So that's a disadvantage for the Patriots,
but going to try to take advantage of it in
the prop market with the Seahawks getting a ton of sacks.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
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(22:05):
for the week, and mine again. New England Patriots plus
four and a half minus one oh eight. That's where
I'm going with this one. I've made the case there
that the Seattle defense is very good, equally good, that's right.
I said it. Equally good is that Patriots defense. And
this is gonna keep this game tight. And I do
think there's a score on the defensive side and a
turnover that ends up costing Seattle this football game. Andrew
(22:28):
Wood is your big number one bet for Super Bowl sixty.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Of course, it's the Patriots to win. Patriots on the
money line at nearly two to one odds. I think
that they come away with the upset here, Joan. I
know that I'm definitely in the minority and people are
going to look at and say that this is just
a Homer pick. But no, I think that there's a
strong case for the Patriots to find a path to
win this game.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
It's not like I've been.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Picking underdogs every single It's not like I've been picking
the Patriots every single week to win as underdogs. Where
they've been, you know, underdogs so far this season. I
just think that when you look at schematically, there are
a lot of ways where They're defense can pose problems
for Seattle and their offense and Sam Darnold in their
run game, and I think on the offensive side of
the football, off Drake May plays up to what he's
done as an MVP candidate this season, and less likely
(23:11):
he's played in the playoffs, where again the weather has
played a big role. Drake May is not a good
bad weather quarterback. I know he plays in New England.
But before that he was playing in UNC so he
doesn't have the Tom Brady chopps quite yet with the
scuba suit, playing in cold weather and in bad weather.
So I do think that just the value on the
Patriots to win outright in a game that I think
is going to come down to the fourth quarter, potentially
(23:33):
come down to a field goal at the end. Yeah,
give me the Pats with the money line. I do
think that the Super Bowl experience that they have on
their sideline versus Seattle, I think is that extra edge
too that makes me like this bet Mike Rabel, Milton Williams,
Josh mcguiels, Mac Collins, Christian Ellis, Austin Hooper, Carlton Davis,
like up and down the board, they have a lot
of guys with experience. Now Seahawks have a couple of
(23:53):
guys former Rams, Cooper Cup cam Akers, Ernest Jones, but
coaching staff really doesn't have a lot of Super Bowl experience,
and I think that might matter the most, especially in
the second half when things get really tight and we've
seen games.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Go one or which way.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
So if the Patriots can just prevent the blowout, right, like,
that's the big concern. Would not surprise me. If they
get killed, then it's like, well, guess it was a
cupcakes schedule. Here's the two thy twenty six. But if
it's tight and it's close in the second half, I
think the Patriots win.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
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(25:26):
gambling problem, wants help, called one eight hundred and nine
with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Andrew Erickson, you know this
is the last Upset special of the year, and of
course I'm gonna hold your hand on it. And I
can feel the YouTube victreol and the comments. Look, if
(25:46):
I thought the Pats were gonna lose, and sometimes I do,
I would tell you the Pats are gonna lose, go
make some money. I don't think they're going to. I
think Mike Rabel's gonna figure them out, because that's what
Mike Rabel does. Players win games, coaches win championships. Give
me the Pats money line upset plus one ninety two
and are parlay the best bets together here New Engle
(26:06):
Patriots plus four and a half, Andrew Erics and I
are holding hands on the under forty five and a half.
You put those two things together. If you lock him in,
you get plus two forty Andrew, that sounds pretty good
to me, how about you.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
I mean, if I'm exactly handicapping this game correctly, then
it should he be great for me?
Speaker 1 (26:21):
All right now, Tomorrow on the Prop Show, I'm sure
you're gonna get a lot more love for the Seattle
Seahawks despite the fact that Welsh is a huge forty
nine ers guy. So again, if you want a little
bit more fair, imbalanced or whatever you think we're not being,
I don't really care, but go watch tomorrow's show and
get your Seahawks fixed in there. And Andrew and I
will have to listen to Welsh go on and on
about how Seattle's going to drag the Patriots up and
(26:44):
down Santa Clara. I don't think it's gonna happen, but
we shall see it, and again we appreciate everybody tuning
in with us all year round. It's we have a
great community here at Betting Pros. Everybody who's helped this
channel grow. I just want to shout out all of
you two. You guys are awesome. Everyone who listens and
comments has fun here on the programs all season long.
You guys make this possible for us to do and
(27:07):
we can't wait for twenty twenty six to come back
in the fall and do it all again. So on
behalf of all of us here a Betting Pros, the
development team. If you haven't used the app, I don't
know what you're waiting for. Get the app on your phone,
use it for the Super Bowl. All of our production
staff here, everybody, the hosts, the analysts, Matt Perrault, Fitzie,
Ericson Welsh, myself, Wilcock, Bogman. If I'm forgetting anybody, I apologize,
(27:30):
but again, it's been a phenomenal football season then we're
just so happy to share it with all of you
here on the Betting Pros channel. So subscribe to the channel,
subscribe to the feed, and enjoy Super Bowl sixty. That'll
do it for us, but the story of the game
goes on For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. The Homers
are out enjoy the Super Bowl. Everybody go. Thanks for
(27:50):
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The best freeway to support us is by leaving a
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Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
your bets. And this b Joey P joe P Zapia,
and this is BP NFL. It's Super Bowl Week and
it's time for our best bets. Andrew Erics and I
are here. And for those of you saying that we're homers,
only one of us is wearing a Patriots sweatshirt on
today's show. But here's a thing. I've seen some of
the YouTube comments, I've heard some of the noise. I'm
(00:23):
also the guy that was telling you an and I
won money on the New York Football Giants being the
Patriots in the Super Bowl. I also won money on
the Philadelphia Eagles, if you can believe it, or not
being the Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is about
one thing. This is about winning, not about who wins.
It's about us winning. That's what it is. It's us
against the books. That's what it always is here. That
(00:44):
being said, however we feel about this game is compartmentalized
as fans because this is business. Andrew, it's not personal.
That's how I'm entering this. I understand that a lot
of people, we talk to people on the street in
New Orleans. We had a whole fun thing there. It
was kind of split. I would say sixty forty Seattle
people were on. But the one thing that I'm still
(01:06):
tired of hearing about is the Seattle Seahawks defense and
not hearing about the Patriots defense mentioned in similar breath,
because statistically speaking, Patriots defense is pretty damn good, and
they have played incredible football the last couple of weeks,
and people want to say, well, look at the quarterbacks
they played against. You can only play who they put
in front of you. But Seattle has allowed sixteen or
(01:27):
fewer points in six of its past eight games. New
England has allowed sixteen or fewer points each of his
last five games. Seattle has the six ben's defense in
the NFL in terms of yards per game and a
league low seventeen point two points per game. But the
Ringle Patriots have an eighth best defense in two hundred
and ninety two excuse me, two hundred ninety five point
two yards per game, eighteen point eight points per game.
(01:49):
That's fourth best. So to me, if you want to
talk about defense, this is a much more inclusive conversation
your thoughts.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
No, I agree, and that's why. I know that I
don't want to bury the lead here, but our picks
as we go to the totals, I like the under,
and you'd like the under in the game at forty
five and a half points, it kind of feels like
it's a bit in no man's land where a total
at this number is not projecting, Oh, this is going
to be a shootout, because that's usually when you get
to the four to eight and a half, forty nine
and a halfs or a fifty and a half point total,
(02:17):
those numbers usually scream okay, this game could get kind
of nutty here. We could see a lot of points
on both sides, versus like every Pittsburgh Steelers game where oh,
thirty nine and a half points, this game is going
to be a dud, or any Cleveland Browns home game.
So kind of teetering the line. So I do think
that there's value here going with the under if you
do think that both of these defenses prevail here. Good
Seattle is the four straight top ten defense the Patriots
(02:39):
have faced in the postseason, and their offense has not
looked that great.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Now.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
I know that the weather has played a role in that,
but their offense is averaging under sixteen points per game. Again,
it's boosted overall by that pick six against the Houston Texans,
but offensively they're not scoring anywhere near twenty points per game.
The two defenses have allowed, on average this year eighteen
points per game eighteen plus eighteen. Quick through the math, Joe,
(03:04):
what is that? It's very under forty five and a
half points?
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Yes, yes, it is. Also just looking at the offensive too,
and how they stack up. Seattle the third most points
per game, yards per game, they were seventh, passing yards
per game, eighth. New England second in points per game,
they were third in yards per game, and they were
fourth in passing yards per game. So I just think
this is a little bit more even than people realize,
(03:29):
and that's gonna bring us right into our best bets here.
So let's talk about the first one here. I'm in
on the under forty five and a half year in
the under, I'm getting it, but just by the chinny
chin chin, because my final is twenty four to twenty.
I do believe that's gonna be the final scorer of
this game. So I am just squeaking in to that under,
not by much. Andrew, why is it an under for you.
I mean, I've laid out here all the defenses and
(03:51):
how close they are. I do think there will be
some turnovers in this game too, and that stunts drives
and sometimes changes the dynamic of games. But let's talk
about your reasons of why you I think it's also
going to be an under in this one.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Two defensive minded head coaches going head to head, Mike
McDonald against Mike Rabel. They both come from defensive backgrounds,
and I think that matters a lot, because I don't
think that they open up the first quarter of the
game thinking, Okay, well, we have to score a ton
of points here to win this game. I think that
they both believe, hey, we have faith in our defense
and that if we keep this game tight, we can
(04:22):
win in the fourth quarter. So I think that's kind
of the mindset of both of these teams, especially with Ken.
Nobody wants to talk or shouldn't say, nobody wants to
talk about it's try being overblown. But both quarterbacks like
have these injuries that we don't know if they're real,
they're not real.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
We're not really sure.
Speaker 2 (04:36):
I guess we'll find out together whether these injuries mattered
or not. But it's just another reason to kind of
look at, okay, if it's a little bit lower scoring,
and to me to the optics of this game, it
just doesn't scream shootout, right. I think that's been the
least talked about narrative and potential path for this game
where I've heard a lot of shows again talking about
the Seattle Seahawks, a lot of media talking about the Seahawks.
(04:58):
ESPN fifty eight of their sixty let's pick the Seattle
Seahawks to win, and the two that pick the Patriots
were on the Patriots at one point. So again that's.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Been Bruski, and who was the other one, I don't know.
I know definitely it was Bruski, but I know it
was brusk because I saw him talking about it on
another channel.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
Yeah, But besides that type of point there, it's it
just doesn't seem unless the way I see it going
over is it barely just squeaks over where you get
like a twenty seven to twenty finish, so it's not
like a shootout or again, I think this is very
much in the range of outcomes. I do think that
there's a chance that Seattle does kill the Patriots, And
oh no, I guess it really was a cupcake schedule
for the newman the Patriots. All yeah, I do think
(05:38):
that that's possible. But my prediction question when we talk
about the spreads and the picks and who wins, I
think that the Patriots win in a tight game.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
You know, Andrew. I'm also gonna say this too. Two
of the three opponents, or actually say both of the opponents,
not even two. Two of two that Seattle faced in
the playoffs were in division opponents from this year. So
those games are always so different in terms of the
way they play because all of those teams are always
built to face those indivision opponents. And they have handled
the forty nine ers time and time again like they
(06:07):
have figured out they've cracked the code, right, whatever it is.
With the forty nine ers, Seattle has their number. And
with the Rams, you always know what's going to be
a dogfight, like you know how it's gonna be. And
I think that there's something different too. Whenever you have
aud of conference games, they tend to play a little
bit differently, and when you have in division games, they
tend to play a little bit differently. The familiarity is
(06:27):
very important, I think to some of these totals that
you get sometimes, so I just want to throw that
out there for the listening audience as well. All right,
next one here, probably for me, I think the easiest
bet to make, which is the wingle Patriots plus four
and a half at minus one oh eight. Again, you
can find all these lines over Betting Pros. Make sure
you subscribe to the podcast, make sure you go check
out BP and make sure you download the app too,
so you can track all your bets. You can make
(06:48):
all your bets. You can sync all your sports books
for free with the Betting Pros app and find the
best numbers for every single one of these bets. But
all this stuff to me too. Again, if this game
even plays close, and let's say the Patriots fall short
and I'm wrong here and they don't come out with
a victory, I'm still making money. I'm still winning. Four
and a half is a nice cushion. I think this
team has a lot of respect for itself. I think
(07:08):
Mike Rabel will have a good game plan. I think
Josh McDaniels, who has coached in almost double digit Super
bowls now, is going to have a good game plan,
and I think that they're gonna throw a lot of
different coverages at Sam Donald, a lot of different blitz packages.
I think that offensive line is kind of mid tier
for the Seattle Seahawks. That's just my opinion of it.
And I think Sam Darnald is prone to some turnovers
(07:29):
and prone to pressure. So for me, that's another reason
why I think New Engle can keep this close. And
I do think there will be a turnover on that
Seattle side. More on that to come. Andrew, what's your
number two bet here for the Super Bowl?
Speaker 2 (07:40):
I agree with you that if I'm picking against the spread,
I definitely want the Patriots as the underdogs here with
the point, especially when it's at four and a half.
I think that that line is just a little bit
too high. You look at the look Ahead Lions before
the conference championship games played out in this theoretical Super
Bowl matchup, it was Seattle laying my three and a half.
And I don't really think that we should be taking
(08:02):
so much from Okay, that Denver Blizzard game where it
was really hard to get an understanding. Okay, yeah, the
offensive looked great, Well, nobody can really move the ball
effectively and then you look at the Seahawks to your point, again,
they've played very well against the Los Angeles Rams, so
not trying to over evaluate.
Speaker 1 (08:17):
Okay, well, this.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Is what they've done against the Rams. Well, they played
the Rams a lot different how they play other teams.
And Mike McDonald's specifically eight and oh in rematches in
the same season, so that is where he's been lights
out facing the second the team for the second time,
in this case the third time. So that's something to
kind of keep in mind. Maybe not overinflating the Seahawks
for beating again a very good Rams team, but one
(08:38):
team that they match up very well against. And I
don't think that that really is the case as much
with the New England Patriots. I think that especially on
the defensive side, the Patriots can go match up well
with the Seahawks offense. They can stop the run and
they can limit Kenneth Walker. You can't run on a
healthy Patriots run defense. You can't do it with Spallane
and Tunga and Milton Williams and Christian barrymore. They're gonna
(08:59):
shut down the run and that that then creates a
strict drop back passing game with less play action with
Sam Darnold, and if Christian Gonzalez can only slow down
JSN in some capacity, especially in third and fourth downs,
then yeah, I think there's an advantage to the Patriots
defense here. So and Drake May is always a X
factor way he can make plays with his legs, So
that's the one thing that I'm kind of looking forward
(09:20):
to because that was never a case with Tom Brady.
And again, how did you be Tom Brady? You got
pressure up the middle, and that can still happen with
Drake May. But the thing is he has the mobility
and the offscript playmaking ability to get the ball downfield.
And we just saw the Seas defense, specifically their secondary
kind of get ripped a little bit by Matthew Stafford
(09:40):
in the NFC Championship game. So those are some of
the reasons why I like the Patriots. And with the points,
I think just straight up on the money line because
I think it's going to be a close game, and
if it's a close game, I can get a plus
two hundred or nearly two to one US. So the
pitch just to win outright, and I think this game
is closer to a coin flip than the lines would suggest,
So I like the value there. If you like Seattle,
(10:01):
I would tease it. I would go up to teasing
it to Seattle minus six and a half, Seattle minus seven. Again,
if everyone thinks that they're going to just smoke them,
then yeah, then bettt don't take it seawkx minus four
and half because if they do dominate and it really
was the cupcake schedule that the reason why the Patriots
are here, then you should feel comfortable laying that many
points if you consider it Seattle the much more dominant team.
So that's just my basic read on the game. I
(10:22):
think that there are scenarios where you can get really
high payouts, whether you like the Seahawks or whether you
like the Patriots, because that's the way that I see
this game playing out most likely.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Well, look, I also think you know that's Spalaane injury.
Him being on the field is huge from a leadership standpoint.
He's one of those motor guys and one of those
heart and soul kind of guys there. And the other
thing too, is you know you mentioned about the secondary too.
I think you also got to talk about some of
the discipline between the two teams as well, because you
know in that game there against the Rams, you know
when Treek Woollen has that penalty, and I'm not just
(10:53):
singling out one guy, but you know, the lack of
discipline in these kind of big games really shows up.
And I think that's where Vetter in coaching coaches that
have played in Super Bowls, coaches super Bowls before, really
make a big difference here because I think sometimes emotions
run really high, and you saw it in the NFC
Championship game. And being able to limit those mistakes and
penalties and just bad decision making process to playing with
(11:14):
a certain kind of focus and getting your team on
the right page, I think really matters quite a bit. Again,
it's just it's my opinion, but it's also based in
a lot of fact here all right, Next up here,
my third favorite bet is doing a Patriots total points
over twenty and a half at minus one h two.
I do think we get a defensive score here by
the Patriots. I see a turnover, I see a pick
(11:35):
six in the future, and if you hit that, it's
plus eight to fifty for the Patriots defensive score a touchdown.
I like that a lot. So that is to me
one of my favorite bets here in the Super Bowl,
and I think that seven is the one that gets
them over this twenty and a half. I do think
that the Seattle Seahawks defense is going to hit Drake May.
I do think they're gonna give him problems. I think
they will eke out some more points. It will have
(11:56):
some big plays, as Andrew mentioned before. But I do
think think inevitably it is the defensive score that is
the difference in this game, and the defensive score is
the one that carries them over that twenty and a
half Marker, Andrew, what's your third bet here for Super
Bowl sixty?
Speaker 2 (12:10):
So my third best bet is a parlay same game
parlay where I'm moving these numbers a little bit into
my favor. So I like the Patriots. I want to
give them more points plus six and a half. The
Patriots this season, Joe, have not lost the game by
more than seven points. They have not lost a game
by more than one score all season. Both these teams
have played in extremely close games when they've been on
(12:31):
the losing side. Every game that they have played has
been within one score, and ironically, their biggest losses of
the season both happened in Week one so we're as
far removed as possible from these teams getting quote unquote
like blowing out and dominating games. And how funny is
it that we look back at some of these bad
performances from these teams. Patriots lost to the Raiders in
Week one, who hold the number one draft pick, and
(12:54):
don't forget who almost lost. And because I remember we
were on the show, we talked about that six leg
parlay of all the money line bets, and what was
the one that was the sweatiest. It was the Seahawks
money line against the Philip Rivers and the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
And they were a field goal.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
Away from blowing that game.
Speaker 1 (13:11):
So again in their own building, mind you, Yes, in
their own building. Let's not forget that. Yes, so this
impenetrable defense almost lost the game to Philip Rivers. Off
the couch. Oh my god, it's the legion of Boom.
Let's calm down already. It's a good def a very
good defense. This is not the Legion of Boom. This
is not the two thousand Ravens, it's not the eighty
(13:33):
five Bears's calm down, it's pump the brakes a little bit.
Bro I'm afraid I've got all Steven Smith there for
a second, just a little bit.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Again, I like the Patriots. They've covered plus three and
a half, so even moving the line a little bit,
and ninety percent of their games played this season, So
again more backing of just keeping this game within a
touchdown that six and a half covers there, and then
we look at the total. If I move it up
to taking the under at fifty two and a half points,
that is kind of the most profitable number when you
look at both of these teams. For the Seattle Seahawks,
(14:04):
seventy one percent of their games have finished under fifty
two and a half points, and really it's only failed
when they've been in true shootout game environments. And at
fifty two and a half. For the Patriots, they've hit
under that number in eighty one percent of their games.
So you put those two together, you get plus odds
and you're plus one twenty, which I really like. Again,
(14:26):
So if you're putting crafting all these crazy same game parlays,
why don't you take one that's more likely to be
a layup in my estimation, If you like the Pats,
just to keep it with a touchdown move the total
up if you think it's going to be a little
bit more lower scoring. I like that plus six and
a half of the pats and game total going under
fifty two and a half.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Yeah, that's gimme right there, that's give me stuff. I
like that, Andrew, very nice. Safe, you know what. It's
good to have some safe floor of a couple bets
you want to make in the Super Bowl, and then
you can have that fun one. They can have that
crazy one or two other things you want to bet on.
But having that safe floor of I think three wagers
is really smart. Don't forget. If you're looking for more wagering,
help to our discords here bettingpros dot com, slash Chat.
(15:04):
It's free, it's fun. We've got a million picks in
there for the Super Bowl. We got all kinds of
chats going on there, so go check it out today.
My fourth pick, first half total under twenty three and
a half. Now, this one's the heaviest juice, So again,
I think this is safe. It's minus one forty. I
don't love the juice, but if you're somebody that just
wants to sit back and enjoy, I think this is
the one for you. Typically speaking, that first quarter, especially
(15:25):
with the two week layoff, everybody's a little flat. You know,
they're standing out there forever for the you know, the
opening acts and the you know, America the beautiful and
then you have the national anthem, and then we're still
standing around there. It's a lot, so teams tend to
come out a little bit flat here, especially in that
first quarter. So I think this is one that's gonna
move as well. You'll see this number shrink after that
(15:48):
first quarter is over, and I would get in it
on it now. It's easy, it's fun. I just want
to take it again. Typically, the Super Bowl does not
get off to a riproar and start, and if it doesn't,
then it's gonna take a little while for things to
open up in the second quarter. And I just don't
know what these defenses, how much is going to open up.
So I'm playing into the hands of the defense. I'm
playing into the hands of history, which is typically speaking,
everyone standing around forever. Two week layoffs not great for everybody.
(16:09):
So a little bit of flattness there, a little bit
of nerves, a little bit of super Bowl Jitter's got
to get worked out there in that first quarter, Andrew,
what is your next bet here for the people for.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
Super Bowl sixty, I am handholding with you on the
first half under twenty three and a half points. I
think back to a lot of these Patriots Super Bowls.
A lot of them were duds in the first quarter
where you look up and say zero zero, and you
know who called a lot of the offensive plays for
the Patriots in those games. It was Josh McDaniels. So
I'm not necessarily looking at that as Patriots don't have
(16:38):
high scoring first halves because of Bill belichip to Tom
Brady what Josh McDaniels had a role in that. You
look at the Patriots in the first half of Super
Bowls that were called by Josh McDaniels as the OC
and offensive plague caller. They haven't scored more than fourteen
points for the five games they scored twelve or fewer
points in the first half. Again, going back to why
we like the total game going under, we have two
(17:00):
defensive mind to head coaches. To me, I think that
in the beginning script for offenses, both of these teams
are going to look to run the football, whether they're
efficient or not. I think they want to get an
idea of Okay, what are they looking at us on defense,
and then they're going to think about taking their strikes
either at the end of the second quarter or in
the second half when they're were like, look for opportunities
(17:21):
to create explosive plays. Because again back to the point
where we like the total game going under, I think
that they both believe, both coaches believe that their defenses
can win if they keep it close, right, and they
can ultimately win in a one of these closer matchups.
So I like the first half under here as well.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
All right, So same page there, all right. Now tomorrow show,
obviously on Friday, we have the big prop show. So
I'm gonna give you one because I know the boys
aren't going to give you defensive stuff. I know those guys.
This is an honor of my boy, Scott Bogman. Okay,
we're going to defense here. Clavon Chase on the record
a sack and plus one seventy eight. I really think
he is going to get in there and make something happen.
He has played phenomenal football down the stretch. This one's
(18:01):
big time prospect kind of floundered a little bit back
in the day. He has found a home in this
Mike Vrabel New England Patriots offense defense, excuse me? And
he is really in a spot now where he is
wreaking habit. He is making things happen. And I think
Chase On gets home on Sam Darnold once in this game.
And you're almost getting two to one on this answer.
I love this bet. Now. It's not a game bet,
but it's also not an offensive bet. And I want
(18:24):
everybody to think outside the box. It's not all about
the offenses. And we're talking about these great defenses, yet
nobody's betting on defensive stuff. What are we doing here? Now?
I sound like Dick vital who is a little bit
closer to me in terms of physical appearance. I would
think me and Dick Vitale could be cousins, could definitely
be some sort of cousins there. Yeah, baby, let's make
the defensive picks there, Baby, Dick VI tell used to
(18:44):
do basketball? Do you know who that is? Andrew? Do
I know what basketball is? No Dick VII talent? Do
you know Dick vital is? You don't know?
Speaker 2 (18:51):
I'm sure that he's showed me a picture, all right.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Google Dick Vitale and then tell me we can't be cousins. Good.
I want you to google it. I want the live
reaction of you googling Dick Vitel and you tell me
if we could be cousins. I'm pretty sure we could be,
all right, but clayvon Jason to get a sack again.
Almost two to one plus one seventy eight. Y're getting
right now? Good stuff there, Andrew Erickson, did you find
the picture of Dick.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
Vital Yeah, yeah, yeah, I can see you guys. Be
you okay, yeah, you Dick Vitel cousin Vinnie. It all
makes sense all of a sudden.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
And I have multiple cousins named Vinnie. So I put
that three surris. If you were set the over under
two and a half, it was the over on cousins
that I have named Vinnie. All right, let's get to
Andrew's last pick, and then we're gonna give you our
favorite picks of the Super Bowl in a second here,
along with a little parlay as well. So Andrew will
give us the fifth and final one you got on
your board.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
I'm going to betting against my Patriots in this particular situation,
Gonna go with the Seattle Seahawks have over three and
a half sacks. You put it with the crop in there,
so I figure, hey, why don't I lay one in
there as well? Plus one, it's twenty eight. You look
at Drake megainst these top defenses all year long, so
this is even before the playoffs because each other time
they face the top ten defense was the Cleveland Browns
and Miles Garrett had a feast in that game. I
(20:05):
remember watching that and be like, man, this dude is
a one man wrecking machine. Will Campbell was probably one
of his worst games during the regular season. But Drake
May has taken at least five sacks when facing top
ten defenses this season. So I like the over, especially
at plus money, for Seattle to get at least four sacks.
I think they get at least five just based on
the trends that we've seen with Drake May against some
of these top tier defenses. Again, look it's going to
(20:27):
be he's gonna get pressured, Like we know that's going
to happen. The Patriots offensive line is at a big
disadvantage against this really deep Seahawks defensive line, especially in
the second half of the game when those guys have
been out there for all of the snaps and Seattle, yeah,
it doesn't really have those like Miles Garrett type player,
but they have a lot of really strong depth that
they have a lot of guys, you know, five or
(20:47):
six guys deep that can really get after the pass,
get after the passer, especially when they're not playing on
every single down. So that's a disadvantage for the Patriots,
but going to try to take advantage of it in
the prop market with the Seahawks getting a ton of sacks.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
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and it's our turn to give you our favorite bets
(22:05):
for the week, and mine again. New England Patriots plus
four and a half minus one oh eight. That's where
I'm going with this one. I've made the case there
that the Seattle defense is very good, equally good, that's right.
I said it. Equally good is that Patriots defense. And
this is gonna keep this game tight. And I do
think there's a score on the defensive side and a
turnover that ends up costing Seattle this football game. Andrew
(22:28):
Wood is your big number one bet for Super Bowl sixty.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
Of course, it's the Patriots to win. Patriots on the
money line at nearly two to one odds. I think
that they come away with the upset here, Joan. I
know that I'm definitely in the minority and people are
going to look at and say that this is just
a Homer pick. But no, I think that there's a
strong case for the Patriots to find a path to
win this game.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
It's not like I've been.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Picking underdogs every single It's not like I've been picking
the Patriots every single week to win as underdogs. Where
they've been, you know, underdogs so far this season. I
just think that when you look at schematically, there are
a lot of ways where They're defense can pose problems
for Seattle and their offense and Sam Darnold in their
run game, and I think on the offensive side of
the football, off Drake May plays up to what he's
done as an MVP candidate this season, and less likely
(23:11):
he's played in the playoffs, where again the weather has
played a big role. Drake May is not a good
bad weather quarterback. I know he plays in New England.
But before that he was playing in UNC so he
doesn't have the Tom Brady chopps quite yet with the
scuba suit, playing in cold weather and in bad weather.
So I do think that just the value on the
Patriots to win outright in a game that I think
is going to come down to the fourth quarter, potentially
(23:33):
come down to a field goal at the end. Yeah,
give me the Pats with the money line. I do
think that the Super Bowl experience that they have on
their sideline versus Seattle, I think is that extra edge
too that makes me like this bet Mike Rabel, Milton Williams,
Josh mcguiels, Mac Collins, Christian Ellis, Austin Hooper, Carlton Davis,
like up and down the board, they have a lot
of guys with experience. Now Seahawks have a couple of
(23:53):
guys former Rams, Cooper Cup cam Akers, Ernest Jones, but
coaching staff really doesn't have a lot of Super Bowl experience,
and I think that might matter the most, especially in
the second half when things get really tight and we've
seen games.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
Go one or which way.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
So if the Patriots can just prevent the blowout, right, like,
that's the big concern. Would not surprise me. If they
get killed, then it's like, well, guess it was a
cupcakes schedule. Here's the two thy twenty six. But if
it's tight and it's close in the second half, I
think the Patriots win.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
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(25:26):
gambling problem, wants help, called one eight hundred and nine
with it gambling problem called one hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Andrew Erickson, you know this
is the last Upset special of the year, and of
course I'm gonna hold your hand on it. And I
can feel the YouTube victreol and the comments. Look, if
(25:46):
I thought the Pats were gonna lose, and sometimes I do,
I would tell you the Pats are gonna lose, go
make some money. I don't think they're going to. I
think Mike Rabel's gonna figure them out, because that's what
Mike Rabel does. Players win games, coaches win championships. Give
me the Pats money line upset plus one ninety two
and are parlay the best bets together here New Engle
(26:06):
Patriots plus four and a half, Andrew Erics and I
are holding hands on the under forty five and a half.
You put those two things together. If you lock him in,
you get plus two forty Andrew, that sounds pretty good
to me, how about you.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
I mean, if I'm exactly handicapping this game correctly, then
it should he be great for me?
Speaker 1 (26:21):
All right now, Tomorrow on the Prop Show, I'm sure
you're gonna get a lot more love for the Seattle
Seahawks despite the fact that Welsh is a huge forty
nine ers guy. So again, if you want a little
bit more fair, imbalanced or whatever you think we're not being,
I don't really care, but go watch tomorrow's show and
get your Seahawks fixed in there. And Andrew and I
will have to listen to Welsh go on and on
about how Seattle's going to drag the Patriots up and
(26:44):
down Santa Clara. I don't think it's gonna happen, but
we shall see it, and again we appreciate everybody tuning
in with us all year round. It's we have a
great community here at Betting Pros. Everybody who's helped this
channel grow. I just want to shout out all of
you two. You guys are awesome. Everyone who listens and
comments has fun here on the programs all season long.
You guys make this possible for us to do and
(27:07):
we can't wait for twenty twenty six to come back
in the fall and do it all again. So on
behalf of all of us here a Betting Pros, the
development team. If you haven't used the app, I don't
know what you're waiting for. Get the app on your phone,
use it for the Super Bowl. All of our production
staff here, everybody, the hosts, the analysts, Matt Perrault, Fitzie,
Ericson Welsh, myself, Wilcock, Bogman. If I'm forgetting anybody, I apologize,
(27:30):
but again, it's been a phenomenal football season then we're
just so happy to share it with all of you
here on the Betting Pros channel. So subscribe to the channel,
subscribe to the feed, and enjoy Super Bowl sixty. That'll
do it for us, but the story of the game
goes on For Andrew Erickson, I'm Joey P. The Homers
are out enjoy the Super Bowl. Everybody go. Thanks for
(27:50):
listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,
The best freeway to support us is by leaving a
positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on
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