January 27, 2026 • 32 mins
Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer recap The American Express before exploring the top betting strategies for The Farmers Insurance Open!
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections to help you maximize your winnings as the 2026 PGA season rolls on!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
The American Express Review - 0:02:22
The Farmers Insurance Open - 0:05:17
BettingPros Premium - 0:11:30
The Favorites - 0:12:10
Mid-Range and Long-Shots - 0:17:55
Hard Rock Bet - 0:27:56
Betting Cards & One & Done Selections - 0:29:20
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined as always by Paul mcbrair.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Paul, on last week's show, you touted a multi sport parlay.
You've got it yourself. You hit it. Care to share
the details with our audience?
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Well, just a little rewind is I get to the
show early in the week where I'm looking for value
with Scotti Scheffler, which is never an easy task, and
I had to ask myself, is Scotty Scheffler going to
win this tournament? And I said to myself probably. Then
I look at the odds and it says plus two
seventy five was the best line I could find. That's
(00:36):
not acceptable. I want to win some money, So I
decided to look at other parlay legs that I might
feel confident enough to throw in with a Scotty outright.
So I was able to parlay a Scotty outright win
with the Patriots money line and the Seahawks minus two
and a half. Since I felt both of those teams
(00:56):
would win, I didn't know how much the Patriots would
win by a good thing. I didn't bet the spread
because they did not cover the spread and then I
was pretty sure the Seahawks would win by more than
a field goal, so I was I took that for
a little bit of an odds boost and my twenty
dollars bet when Scottie Patriots Seahawks one by four, that
(01:19):
turned my twenty bucks into one hundred and ninety four dollars.
So kudos to me for a fun, creative bet that
just so happened to hit.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Hey, and we might have another chance to do that
next week with the Super Bowl and the Phoenix Waste
Management Open.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Always some fun typically.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
The weekend I do it.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, they do put together some fun blended props or
parlays there. So and also Bo, today we were talking
a little bit backstage about this week and you said,
I am really excited about having a big boy tournament,
and we're getting one this week, at least a big
boy venue. I don't know how good the field is.
(02:02):
Weird that yeah, it's not bad. It's weird that you
get a better MX field than you would get for
the Farmers Insurance Open. Butts, that's where the PGA tour
is headed to the southern California coast for the Farmers
Insurance Open. We'll give you a full betting preview in
just a moment, but first, a very quick recap of
last week's tournament, The American Express. Scotti Scheffler wins by
(02:25):
four shots. He opened with a sixty three in a
sixty four in his first two rounds to pretty much
ensure that he would contend. His third round sixty eight,
dropped in one shot behind seawew Kim going into the
final round, who I had bats while I was under
no illusion seawock Kim was going to win and the
final group with Scotty. Scotty was tied with eighteen year
(02:46):
old Blades Brown, who had a good look at a
birdie putt for a fifty nine in his Friday round
but couldn't get it to drop.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Seawoo Kim shot an even par seventy two.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
On Sunday, Blades Brown shot at two over par seventy four.
Scotty blew them both out of the water with a
final around sixty six to win a drama free cake walk.
Scotty just put on a clinic Sunday, stuffing a bunch
of his approach shots within four or five feet of
the hole. He saw a great player on top of
his game, He finished twenty seven under par Jason Day,
(03:17):
Ryan Gerard, Matt McCarty, and Andrew Putnam all finished tied
for second four shots back bow.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Your thoughts on the NX.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Other than the Scotti parlay, I didn't really have a
lot of success. I had some top ten money come
in on Ryan Gerard because that was I found end
up finding a decent odds on his top ten, so
that was okay. The rest of my guys just didn't
have quite enough. I was a little too chicken admittedly
to tout Blades Brown last week, even though he did
(03:47):
pop in my model top ten in my model last week,
and I just couldn't get my I couldn't get the
gumption to say his name on the show. And I mean,
he looked impressive. I didn't think he would have enough experience,
honestly to win that tournament. But now we're on notice
if it's not an overly huge golf course that he
(04:08):
has above average clubhead speed, so he's not going to
be overwhelmed by a longer course. But this is the
kind of the American Express with those three easy courses,
with a guy coming off Corn Fairy Tour, with all
the success he's had as a high school aged teenager.
He's really good guys, and that sixty he shot on
Friday really stood out to me. And the fact that
(04:30):
now I can say his name pretty confidently if he
pops in my model, I'm not going to be apprehensive
saying Blades Brown, because the kid is for real. He's
a real deal player and he just went out there
and lit that course up and it was fun to watch.
And he's eighteen years old. He looks like a timeless veteran.
These kids are to keep getting better, more athletic, more
(04:53):
savvy around these golf courses. It's not like the olden
days where it would take a while for some guys
to get their footing on the PGA Tour. With the
big boy courses, that learning curve is much shorter than
it ever was.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Blades Brown has wanted to watch for sure. Gorgeous swing
and a cool name.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Yeah, I think he's going to be around for it.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
I don't think his dad played cavity backs. Let's just
say that.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Let's turn to the Farmers Insurance Open at Tory Pines
in La Jolla, California. There are one hundred and forty
seven players in the field and a lot of the
big names are skipping this one, including Scottie Scheffler after
his win last week. For the second straight week, we
have a multi course tournament. Players will alternate between Tory
Pines North and Tory Pines South on the first two days.
(05:40):
They will play the South course exclusively on the weekend,
and that's the much tougher course. It's an iconic course
that's hosted majors before. The North Course, a relative pushover,
typically plays about two shots easier than the South course,
although if I recall correctly, there wasn't as big a
disparity between the two courses last year because the North
course seem to get more wind on one of the
(06:02):
first two days I think it was Friday. Then the
South course was getting played unusually difficult. The North course
is of par seventy two that measures seventy two hundred
and fifty eight yards, plays easy because of the par fives.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Which are all very reachable.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
The longest of the par fives is five hundred and
fifty six yards. The other three are five hundred and
thirty six yards are shorter.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Par threes are a little tougher.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
On the North course, all four two hundred yards are longer,
and they are three par fours shorter than four hundred yards,
two of them under three hundred and fifty yards and
potentially drivable. If you want to win the Farmers Insurance Open,
you had best shoot in the sixties for your round
on the Tory Pines North Course. Now, the South Course
is a par seventy two that weighs in at a
(06:49):
hefty seventy seven hundred and sixty five yards, making it
the longest course the PGA Tour pros will play all season.
Aside from the Majors, it's one of the most demanding
driving courses on tour now. Obviously, distance off the tee
is a big advantage of the course this long, but
accuracy matters too, because Tory Pines South has some of
(07:09):
the narrowest fairways on the tour.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Now they're not.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
There are a lot of long power fours, so a
lot of the approach shots are going to come from
middle and long iron distance. The greens at Tory Pines
are poea anua and poe greens can roll inconsistently at times.
I believe Tory Pines South has been one of the
hardest courses on tour in these strokes gained putting category.
(07:33):
If you miss these greens, it can be hard to
get up and down because of the rough around the.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Greens, it can be pretty thick. Now.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
The defending Farmers Open Farmers Insurance Open champion is Harris English.
He survived some tough conditions last year finished minus eight,
one shot ahead of Sam Stevens. Matthew Pavaan won the
Farmer's Insurance Open in twenty twenty four, finishing thirteen under
par to beat Nikolai Hoyguard by one stroke. Homo won
(08:00):
in twenty twenty three, luc List one in twenty twenty two,
beating will.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Zala Taurus in a playoff.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
The weather forecast for this week's events looks pretty agreeable.
Temperatures in the low seventies, plenty of sun, almost no
wind and without wind. The winning score is probably not
going to be eight under par again bow like it
was last year. Probably more like thirteen fifteen under. What
categories are you zeroing in on this week at the
(08:28):
Farmer's Insurance Opens.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
It's really a whole bag golf course. And I said
backstage before the show that it's a big boy event,
a big boy golf course for at least three of
the days, and that's just really it tells me that
I need to focus more on the macro view ball
striking statistics in general. If I do drill down, it's
going to be on proximity on approach shots over two
(08:51):
hundred yards, which there are many, many approach shots over
two hundred yards on this golf course. More than two
thirds of the approach shots on these driving hole are
going to be more than two hundred yards away, some
of them even two hundred and fifty yards away because
of the length of the south course, So two hundred
plus proximity overall ball striking. If I'm looking at strokes
(09:12):
gained on approach in general, I like the strokes gained
off the t metric, but I also prefer good drives gained.
That's another good one for this course because it's a
combination of distance and accuracy, and where the strokes gained
metric weirdly just kind of tells you what kind of
position they're in for their approach after the drive. I
like to use both of those just to kind of
(09:33):
get a sense for okay on a tougher golf course.
I'm going to filter for more difficult scoring relative to
par as well, that's really what it comes down to.
I'm not really kind of over picking the stats in
this week because we have a pretty evenly spaced field.
When it comes down to it, with no Scotty, no Rory,
(09:54):
you're looking at a bunch of guys that are not
really that much different in town level. It's going to
come down to who plays better for four days at
a really cool venue. And of course the weather's gonna
be perfect. It's in San Diego.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Yeah, no kidding, Well, it was pretty breezy last year.
There was some less than ideal.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
But character squalls.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Yes, definitely.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Do you look at bogey avoidance in this tournament with
like we saw Harris English grind his.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
Way to a victory last year.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
I mean, that guy just kept making par after par
after par, getting a few bogies at opportune times.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
But is that a key category for you?
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Not necessarily a key category, it's definitely involved. Bogey avoidance
and scrambling are always going to be important stats at
any event, especially when it's not one of the resort
courses that's going to be a birdie fest, any non
birdi fest. You're looking at including those metrics. I think
Harris English's performance last year happened to be because he's
(10:59):
a great wind player and the wind popped up. Nobody
really expected that, and so those grinders like him and
Kirk Kittiyama and some of the guys that who really
just don't aren't phased by windy conditions on tough golf courses,
those are the kinds of guys that can rise up
if the weather is a lot like that. Right now,
I'm just looking at those straight up categories, see where
(11:20):
people are falling, and then just kind of going with
my gut for the tie breakers because this is a
very evenly matched field. I'll keep saying that throughout the show.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Now we will get to the odds for the Farmer's
Insurance Open in just a moment, But first.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
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Speaker 2 (12:11):
Let's get to the odds for the farmers. Xander Schaffley
is the favorite. He was plus fourteen point fifty at
last check, defending Champ Ludvig Oberg is seventeen to one,
Cameron Young eighteen to one, Patrick Cantley twenty two and
a half to one, Sewu Kim twenty four to one,
Jj Sphond twenty five to one, Chris Goddrup and Hideki
Matsuyama are twenty nine to one. Maverick McNeely, Jason Dane
(12:35):
Harris English are thirty one to one, Alex Norrin thirty
six to one, Keegan Bradley thirty seven to one, and
Taylor Pendrith thirty eight to one. Do you like any
of these guys?
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Bo I?
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Do I like Xander Schoffley. He's number one in my model.
I think it's interesting some of the books are going
to these single digits instead of increments of five. That's
actually helpful because it allows for less movement during the week.
I think that's why they do it, because we got
We're gonna get a little bit less of an edge,
but it's also gonna be a little more predictable with
(13:08):
the odds in one increments instead of five. Xander Schaffley's
odds are fine. It's double digits for a favorite. That's
always nice. What concerns me is this is a very
tough place to put at, even if you're a good
Poeana putter. He's one hundred and third in putting in
this field. He's also ninety second in proximity and approach
(13:29):
over two hundred yards. That is ugly. The rest of
these stats are beautiful, top five and top ten everywhere
else besides those two stats. So I like Xander Schaffley.
I love Ludwig Oberg. He is the match made for
this course so perfectly. He's just an amazing driver of
(13:50):
the golf ball, great ball striker, great long iron player,
and his prowess off the tn on approach kind of
covers up his seam weakest area, which is the short game,
most notably plutting. But he's still fortieth in this field
out of one hundred and fifty in putting. So I'm
not worried Aboutludwig Oberg in any category where there's a
(14:11):
couple of very important categories where I do wonder if
Xanderschoffley is going to be the right guy to pick
this week. I have no concern about Ludwig Oberg. He
is next. This is a very confident bet on Ludwig
Oberg at plus seventeen fifty this week.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Now let me hit you with a few bots for
both of these guys. So Andrew Schaffley, He's had three
top ten finishes in his last five trips to Torry Pines,
one of which was a ninth place finish at the
twenty twenty one US Open, and he was second at
the Farmers in twenty twenty one. But does it bother
you at all that he has not played competitive golf
since I think the week after the Ryder Cup the
(14:48):
Bay Current Classic in Japan, although he did win that tournament.
Speaker 3 (14:52):
Yeah, he should win that tournament. I am concerned. He's
typically a guy. Last year he had an injury that
made his early season really start rocky, and then it
took him a while to get into playing shape. Honestly,
that's I'm not worried about that as much as just
playing rusty at a golf course. This is the first
time you're playing competitive golf this calendar year, and it's
(15:13):
a it's at the Farmers. That's a real rust killer
if you're coming in not completely ready body right. I'm
a little concerned there, and so it goes to show
that I'm just not as confident in Shaftley as I
am an Oberg, even though Oberg's not hasn't been the
healthiest guy in the world.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Yeah, that's the bought with Oberg. So yes, he won
here last year. They played the Genesis Invitational a Tory
Pines last year because Riviera they couldn't play there because
of the fires in Southern California, so they played at
Tory Pines. Oberg won there, but something about the Southern
California climate doesn't agree with him. Bawl. He's from the
(15:56):
AMX last week due to illness.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Whether it's two.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Nice I.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Like it was not one of those manufactured illnesses where
he was playing poorly. He was nine under par through
the first two rounds when he withdrew. And oddly enough,
Obert got sick at this event last year and had
a really tough weekend when he was just obviously not
in very good shape and route to finishing forty seconds.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
So does the illness bother you at all?
Speaker 3 (16:22):
It would if he was coming into the week still sick.
I did a little bit of digging today and found
that it was more of just like it was an
exhaustion type thing where he was he was sick and
he could still play, but he was getting tired and
he didn't think he could keep playing at that level
for the rest of the week. I think he's back
(16:42):
to one hundred percent this week, but who knows. Maybe
so cow weather just isn't agreeable for the young Swede's
he's a great player, and I hope he's one hundred
percent because this is the perfect opportunity for him to
really make a big name for himself in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (16:59):
Now, just couple notes on some of the other guys
with short odds. Cameron Young terrific off the tee. He's
certainly got the driver to win here, but he's missed
the cut in three of his last four trips to
Tory Pines.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
No short, no short game.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
And our guy see with kim Bo not on a
pete Die Course this week, but he has been in
really good form eleventh at the Sony, sixth at the AMX,
and he's had some top twenty fives at Tory Pines,
although he hasn't really seriously contended here. Hideki Matsuyama generally
plays pretty well at Tory Pines. It's a good enough
ball striker to win here. We just haven't seen Hideki
(17:35):
in peak form for a while. Then there's Jason Day
coming off the second place finish at the MX. Won
the Farmers Insurance Open in twenty eighteen and has posted
three top tens at the Farmers since that win. Also
always seems to do really well at Pebble. Just maybe
a good POA.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Potter, Jason Diz. All Right, so let's look at some
of the mid range option.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
We've got Jake Knapp at forty to one, Adam Scott
four forty three to one, Michael Thorbe, Bjornsen is forty
four to one. Ryan Gerard and Rasmus Hoygard are forty
four to one, Sam Stevens forty six to one, Max
Hillman Wyndam Clark forty seven to one. Brooks Keepka in
his return to the PGA Tour is fifty to one.
Will zalatoris fifty two to one, Justin Rose fifty three
(18:20):
to one, Marco penge is fifty four to one, Garrik
Kigo fifty five to one, Rasmus Niegard Peterson fifty six
to one, Matt McCarty fifty seven to one, and Thorburn,
Olison and Aaron Ry are fifty nine to one. How
about this group, BO, Is there anyone you like here?
Speaker 3 (18:38):
This group is loaded with guys I love. Yeah. So
I have one, two, three, four guys in the strange
starting with Ryan Gerard playing out of his mind to
start this season. We kind of got glimpses of that
towards the tail end of last year with his win
at the Barracuda, which I was in attendance for. Really
nice guy, really good golfer, very very focused golfer. He's
(19:00):
playing extremely well right now and this is another course
that fits him. You don't think of Ryan Gerrard on
tougher golf courses, but when it comes to birdier, better percentage,
he's number one in this field. And I've been talking
about proximity on approach over two hundred yards. He's number
one in this field. In those two categories, He's top
five and strokes gained teda green, top five strokes gained
(19:23):
on approach. He's not the best putter in the world,
but everything else is pointing to Ryan Gerard paying off
at his odds. I got him at forty three to one,
and let's say I'm confident about Ryan Gerard. I am
ecstatic to have brooks Kopka back on the PGA Tour,
and I'm even more ecstatic to get him opening up
at fifty three to one is where I got him,
(19:43):
and this is a miss price. This is a top
five talented golfer in the world on a golf course
that fits him very well. He's one of the best
ball strikers I've ever watched play, and he's got a
really decent short game. He had last year was not
the best at avoiding bogies. He's a veryggressive player, but
he also matches that with a pretty good scrambling game. Ironically,
(20:05):
he makes bogies just from making mistakes, but when he's
in position he can score. And brooks Keopka fifty three
to one, I'm doing a full ladder on him outright.
Top five, top ten, this is this is this is
gonna be a welcome back kind of moment weekend for
Brooks Kopka. I'm excited for that. Two other guys that
(20:26):
you already mentioned, one or both of them Garrett, hego Lefty,
South African. He's coming at fifty eight to one. This
is your this is your rising star twenty twenty six
market right now. Garrett Keego is gonna win not one,
but twice this season. He's that He's very talented, very good,
well rounded player. Came in very high in my model
(20:48):
number seven overall and no stat worse than middle of
the pack here, so very very good putter and a
great ball striker to boot fifth in this in this
field avoiding bogies. That's what we like to see from
a young player especially, is a really good plan in
his head. And then on the opposite end of the spectrum,
a young gun with a lot of firepower. Maybe not
(21:10):
the most restraint, but we've seen him take on challenging
golf courses already in his young career. Marco Pine sixty
three to one is where I got him. Marco PINNs bomber, bomber, bomber,
light the he could light the South course up, that's
how good he is if he's on.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Yeah, I cannot wait to see him make his PJA
Tour debut.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
He's gonna be I mean.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
He's just fund so much fun to watch Marco Pinch play.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Yeah, he can drill out. Another guy, Jake Knapp can
hammer it. Finished third in his Farmer's debut in twenty
twenty four. He was seventeenth and thirty second in the
two tournaments at Tory Pines last year. We know he's
long enough off the tee. I'm just not sure forty
to one is the right price for him.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
Especially when he's not the best at tougher golf courses.
We've seen him dominate on easier courses with where they
require good driving in length. He's good at that, but
he kind of tops out at that top ten level
when it comes to Tory Pines and other courses of
this caliber.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Yeah, they're Sam Stevens who's played well at Tory Pines.
He was second at the Farmers last year, sixth at
the Amex last week, so he's in good form. Max Homa,
how do you feel about him? Bo he's won at
Tory Pines. Does he have his game back in shape
after a disappointing twenty twenty five season. I mean, he
did finish fourth at the AMX last week. Are you
sold yet or still kind of in wait and see
(22:32):
mode with He was a.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Guy I walked with at the Bearcuda last year when
I was I was very interested to see what kind
of mental state he was in, what kind of shape
his game is in. And I think that was about
the time where he started to turn it around, where
he could start to see his confidence comeback. Some of
these guys, the talent's always there, but sometimes they go
through it, sometimes a year or two long slump where
their mental game is that with the physical game, and
(22:55):
then the physical game suffers because they don't believe in
their their form. I think we're going to see a
bounce back from Maxhoma. I just don't know if it's
going to be here. Even though he's a returning champion
from the past, I think he's still going to have
to keep building back to where he was a few
years ago. I don't know that I'm wanting to bet
on him quite yet. He might be the kind of
(23:16):
guy I look at at Pebble Beach. In a couple
of weeks because those are the kinds of courses where
he can really use his strengths to his advantage.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Speaking of Pebble Beach, I'm kind of intrigued by Wyndham
Clark simply because he had one of the best putting
realms on poem that I've ever seen, was a two.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
Years ago at Pebble Beach. So yeah, his.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
Tory Pines track record not stellar, however, and you know
the Tory greens are not.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
The same as the Pebble Beach greens.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Will zelatoris he was not going to make the cut
at the American Express, and then he birdied his last
two holes on Saturday to make the cut on the number.
On the final hole of his Saturday round, he stuffed
his approach to about a foot and then he went
out and shot a sixty five on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (24:02):
So he's got a little bit of momentum.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
He's a great ball striker, and he's fared very well
in a lot of the strokes gained categories at Tory Pines.
So I'm intrigued by will Zlaturus. And then just to
get back to Kepka bo, I mean, we know how
Kepka gets up for certain tournaments, majors, big events. This
is going to be meaningful to making his return than.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
He's going to be motivated.
Speaker 1 (24:29):
Yeah, he is going to be fired up.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
So it does seem like these are very generous odds
considering this isn't a great field and uh, man, I
don't know. Maybe people are expecting Russ, but I like
him at this number of odds.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Are a lot more apprehensive than we are. Let's just
say that.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Yes, what about guys with odds of sixty to one
or longer? Who are some of the who are some
of the long shots you've got your eye on?
Speaker 3 (24:55):
I have three guys, uh for the third time this season,
I'm gonna out how Tong Lee, who's had a great
start to this year. Very talented player, and he just
keeps making me look smart because I was talking about
him last year and now he's getting even better. He's
he's apparently Scotti Scheffler's best friend. Ninety eight to one
is where I got how Tong Lee this week. So
(25:16):
there still don't know who he is in the betting markets.
They're going to find out eventually. While he's still cracking
top tens in top twenties. I'm going to keep investing
a little bit in his outright, but more of those
placement bets with how tong Lee with his current form
being so good. This is a guy who in my
stat model is also a really nice darling, really right
up to the top. There can't beat that. He's seventeen
(25:38):
nine model on the heels of great bogey avoidance, top
ten in this field. The only thing he's not the
best at is just on approach. He's kind of middle
of the pack, but he's a really good birdie maker,
really good putter, and he plays tough golf course as well.
I like to see that from a young guy like
how tong Lee. And then your guy, this is a
guy he's coming in one one eighty five to one
(26:01):
Emiliano Grillo, and we love Emiliano on this show. I'm
usually not the guy that bets him that. I usually
let you bet on Emiliano Grillo, but he really popped
for me this week. Fourteenth of my model, number two
in bogie avoidance in this field and number eleven on
proximity over two hundred yards. That's a nice combination, especially
with those odds. And then my long long shot is
(26:24):
a guy who we've seen win before. Neil Shipley. Neil Shipley,
Ohio State Buckeye long hitter, great putter, and he's he's
gonna find some success on a course like Tory Pines.
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Not a super long shot, but I kind of like Pierson.
Cootie at sixty three to one, finished top twenty at
both the Sony and the MX, and he led the
tour in.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Strokes ganin driving last season.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Might have to go back to the well on Sammy
Vallamachi the finn He's one hundred and thirty to one,
ranked eighteenth in strokes gain an approach last year tenth
gained tenth in strokes gain putting bo Tony Finow not
at the top of his game, but he has seven
top ten finishes at Tory Pines in the last nine
years and he is one hundred and seventy five to one.
(27:12):
I have to do something with Tony Finow, and if
I lose my money.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
So be it.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
But I just that price, I mean, it's just still
I see what his top ten number is now.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
Oh, I can tell you what his top ten numbers.
We'll get to that in a moment.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
But what about your guy, Carl Phillips at three hundred
and thirty to one and finished top twenty at the AMEX.
Speaker 1 (27:34):
I'm intrigued.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
I mean, he's such a good player. I saw him there.
I just felt like I was feeling a little more
confident in in Neil Shipley this week, just based on
course fit. But yeah, you're not going to talk me
out at Carl Phillips three hundred and thirty to one,
just even as a top twenty bet. That would be
solid and I like rooting for the guy that.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
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Speaker 1 (29:20):
Bo give me your hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
My hard rock bet of the week is how Tongley
at ninety eight to one. I just I feel something
in my bones that says how tong Lee is going
to surprise people this week, and it's a long shot.
It's meant to be a long shot. Nobody knows who
this guy is. I do, and I think he's good
enough to win this week. Ninety eight to one would
be an epic payoff. And what better way to kick
(29:46):
off the hard rock bet of the week than to
win a ninety eight to one long shot.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
For my hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Bo, you ask me what Tony Final was for a
top ten I'll tell you what it is, because that's
my hard rock bet of the week. Ton Finale for
a top ten finish at plus ten fifty that's ten
and a half to one. So yeah, I think that's
a pretty good price on a dude who's cast seven
top ten checks in the last nine years.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
That's a seventy seven point seven percent cash rate on
that on that bet, Yeah, over nearly.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
What does the rest, What does the rest of your
early betting card look like?
Speaker 3 (30:25):
So I'm going after Ludvig Oberg plus seventeen fifty. Ryan
Gerard plus forty three hundred, Brooks kept a full ladder
fifty three to one, outright doing top five, top ten,
Garrick Heego fifty fifty eight to one, Marco Penn sixty
three to one, and at a top ten on him
howtong Lee ninety eight to one. I'll throw on a
top twenty just to just to make sure we catch
(30:47):
something from how Tong and then Emiliano Grillo one hundred
eighty five to one, Neil Shipley rounding it out at
two hundred and sixty to one.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Nice I'm gonna go with Jason Day at thirty one
to one, Will Zalatorus at forty seven to one, Brooks
kep Get fifty to one, Pearson Coody sixty three to one,
Sammy Velamachi won thirty to one, and then Carl Phillips
three hundred and thirty to one, plus a top ten
kicker seventeen. Now for the one and done competition, you
(31:16):
took Patrick Cantley last week bo He finished tied for thirteenth,
good for one hundred and thirty four thousand, six hundred
and eighty five dollars. I took defending champs Epstraca last
week and.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
He missed the cut. Bo.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Now it's the lead by about twenty one thousand dollars
and you are up first this week.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
My friend, who are you going to go with?
Speaker 3 (31:36):
I am going to burn a big one. I'm going
with Ludwig Oberg right off the bat.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Ludwig Oberg, all right, I'm gonna go with Jason Day.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
He has just played really well on this course and
uh he seems to be in good form. That is
all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. We'll be
back next week to preview the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Until then, so long everyone.
Speaker 5 (32:06):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
Also subscribe to our
Speaker 5 (32:20):
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
I'm Pat Fitzmorris, joined as always by Paul mcbrair.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Paul, on last week's show, you touted a multi sport parlay.
You've got it yourself. You hit it. Care to share
the details with our audience?
Speaker 3 (00:15):
Well, just a little rewind is I get to the
show early in the week where I'm looking for value
with Scotti Scheffler, which is never an easy task, and
I had to ask myself, is Scotty Scheffler going to
win this tournament? And I said to myself probably. Then
I look at the odds and it says plus two
seventy five was the best line I could find. That's
(00:36):
not acceptable. I want to win some money, So I
decided to look at other parlay legs that I might
feel confident enough to throw in with a Scotty outright.
So I was able to parlay a Scotty outright win
with the Patriots money line and the Seahawks minus two
and a half. Since I felt both of those teams
(00:56):
would win, I didn't know how much the Patriots would
win by a good thing. I didn't bet the spread
because they did not cover the spread and then I
was pretty sure the Seahawks would win by more than
a field goal, so I was I took that for
a little bit of an odds boost and my twenty
dollars bet when Scottie Patriots Seahawks one by four, that
(01:19):
turned my twenty bucks into one hundred and ninety four dollars.
So kudos to me for a fun, creative bet that
just so happened to hit.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Hey, and we might have another chance to do that
next week with the Super Bowl and the Phoenix Waste
Management Open.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Always some fun typically.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
The weekend I do it.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, they do put together some fun blended props or
parlays there. So and also Bo, today we were talking
a little bit backstage about this week and you said,
I am really excited about having a big boy tournament,
and we're getting one this week, at least a big
boy venue. I don't know how good the field is.
(02:02):
Weird that yeah, it's not bad. It's weird that you
get a better MX field than you would get for
the Farmers Insurance Open. Butts, that's where the PGA tour
is headed to the southern California coast for the Farmers
Insurance Open. We'll give you a full betting preview in
just a moment, but first, a very quick recap of
last week's tournament, The American Express. Scotti Scheffler wins by
(02:25):
four shots. He opened with a sixty three in a
sixty four in his first two rounds to pretty much
ensure that he would contend. His third round sixty eight,
dropped in one shot behind seawew Kim going into the
final round, who I had bats while I was under
no illusion seawock Kim was going to win and the
final group with Scotty. Scotty was tied with eighteen year
(02:46):
old Blades Brown, who had a good look at a
birdie putt for a fifty nine in his Friday round
but couldn't get it to drop.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Seawoo Kim shot an even par seventy two.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
On Sunday, Blades Brown shot at two over par seventy four.
Scotty blew them both out of the water with a
final around sixty six to win a drama free cake walk.
Scotty just put on a clinic Sunday, stuffing a bunch
of his approach shots within four or five feet of
the hole. He saw a great player on top of
his game, He finished twenty seven under par Jason Day,
(03:17):
Ryan Gerard, Matt McCarty, and Andrew Putnam all finished tied
for second four shots back bow.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
Your thoughts on the NX.
Speaker 3 (03:25):
Other than the Scotti parlay, I didn't really have a
lot of success. I had some top ten money come
in on Ryan Gerard because that was I found end
up finding a decent odds on his top ten, so
that was okay. The rest of my guys just didn't
have quite enough. I was a little too chicken admittedly
to tout Blades Brown last week, even though he did
(03:47):
pop in my model top ten in my model last week,
and I just couldn't get my I couldn't get the
gumption to say his name on the show. And I mean,
he looked impressive. I didn't think he would have enough experience,
honestly to win that tournament. But now we're on notice
if it's not an overly huge golf course that he
(04:08):
has above average clubhead speed, so he's not going to
be overwhelmed by a longer course. But this is the
kind of the American Express with those three easy courses,
with a guy coming off Corn Fairy Tour, with all
the success he's had as a high school aged teenager.
He's really good guys, and that sixty he shot on
Friday really stood out to me. And the fact that
(04:30):
now I can say his name pretty confidently if he
pops in my model, I'm not going to be apprehensive
saying Blades Brown, because the kid is for real. He's
a real deal player and he just went out there
and lit that course up and it was fun to watch.
And he's eighteen years old. He looks like a timeless veteran.
These kids are to keep getting better, more athletic, more
(04:53):
savvy around these golf courses. It's not like the olden
days where it would take a while for some guys
to get their footing on the PGA Tour. With the
big boy courses, that learning curve is much shorter than
it ever was.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Blades Brown has wanted to watch for sure. Gorgeous swing
and a cool name.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Yeah, I think he's going to be around for it.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
I don't think his dad played cavity backs. Let's just
say that.
Speaker 2 (05:18):
Let's turn to the Farmers Insurance Open at Tory Pines
in La Jolla, California. There are one hundred and forty
seven players in the field and a lot of the
big names are skipping this one, including Scottie Scheffler after
his win last week. For the second straight week, we
have a multi course tournament. Players will alternate between Tory
Pines North and Tory Pines South on the first two days.
(05:40):
They will play the South course exclusively on the weekend,
and that's the much tougher course. It's an iconic course
that's hosted majors before. The North Course, a relative pushover,
typically plays about two shots easier than the South course,
although if I recall correctly, there wasn't as big a
disparity between the two courses last year because the North
course seem to get more wind on one of the
(06:02):
first two days I think it was Friday. Then the
South course was getting played unusually difficult. The North course
is of par seventy two that measures seventy two hundred
and fifty eight yards, plays easy because of the par fives.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Which are all very reachable.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
The longest of the par fives is five hundred and
fifty six yards. The other three are five hundred and
thirty six yards are shorter.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
Par threes are a little tougher.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
On the North course, all four two hundred yards are longer,
and they are three par fours shorter than four hundred yards,
two of them under three hundred and fifty yards and
potentially drivable. If you want to win the Farmers Insurance Open,
you had best shoot in the sixties for your round
on the Tory Pines North Course. Now, the South Course
is a par seventy two that weighs in at a
(06:49):
hefty seventy seven hundred and sixty five yards, making it
the longest course the PGA Tour pros will play all season.
Aside from the Majors, it's one of the most demanding
driving courses on tour now. Obviously, distance off the tee
is a big advantage of the course this long, but
accuracy matters too, because Tory Pines South has some of
(07:09):
the narrowest fairways on the tour.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Now they're not.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
There are a lot of long power fours, so a
lot of the approach shots are going to come from
middle and long iron distance. The greens at Tory Pines
are poea anua and poe greens can roll inconsistently at times.
I believe Tory Pines South has been one of the
hardest courses on tour in these strokes gained putting category.
(07:33):
If you miss these greens, it can be hard to
get up and down because of the rough around the.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
Greens, it can be pretty thick. Now.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
The defending Farmers Open Farmers Insurance Open champion is Harris English.
He survived some tough conditions last year finished minus eight,
one shot ahead of Sam Stevens. Matthew Pavaan won the
Farmer's Insurance Open in twenty twenty four, finishing thirteen under
par to beat Nikolai Hoyguard by one stroke. Homo won
(08:00):
in twenty twenty three, luc List one in twenty twenty two,
beating will.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Zala Taurus in a playoff.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
The weather forecast for this week's events looks pretty agreeable.
Temperatures in the low seventies, plenty of sun, almost no
wind and without wind. The winning score is probably not
going to be eight under par again bow like it
was last year. Probably more like thirteen fifteen under. What
categories are you zeroing in on this week at the
(08:28):
Farmer's Insurance Opens.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
It's really a whole bag golf course. And I said
backstage before the show that it's a big boy event,
a big boy golf course for at least three of
the days, and that's just really it tells me that
I need to focus more on the macro view ball
striking statistics in general. If I do drill down, it's
going to be on proximity on approach shots over two
(08:51):
hundred yards, which there are many, many approach shots over
two hundred yards on this golf course. More than two
thirds of the approach shots on these driving hole are
going to be more than two hundred yards away, some
of them even two hundred and fifty yards away because
of the length of the south course, So two hundred
plus proximity overall ball striking. If I'm looking at strokes
(09:12):
gained on approach in general, I like the strokes gained
off the t metric, but I also prefer good drives gained.
That's another good one for this course because it's a
combination of distance and accuracy, and where the strokes gained
metric weirdly just kind of tells you what kind of
position they're in for their approach after the drive. I
like to use both of those just to kind of
(09:33):
get a sense for okay on a tougher golf course.
I'm going to filter for more difficult scoring relative to
par as well, that's really what it comes down to.
I'm not really kind of over picking the stats in
this week because we have a pretty evenly spaced field.
When it comes down to it, with no Scotty, no Rory,
(09:54):
you're looking at a bunch of guys that are not
really that much different in town level. It's going to
come down to who plays better for four days at
a really cool venue. And of course the weather's gonna
be perfect. It's in San Diego.
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Yeah, no kidding, Well, it was pretty breezy last year.
There was some less than ideal.
Speaker 3 (10:14):
But character squalls.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Yes, definitely.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Do you look at bogey avoidance in this tournament with
like we saw Harris English grind his.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
Way to a victory last year.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
I mean, that guy just kept making par after par
after par, getting a few bogies at opportune times.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
But is that a key category for you?
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Not necessarily a key category, it's definitely involved. Bogey avoidance
and scrambling are always going to be important stats at
any event, especially when it's not one of the resort
courses that's going to be a birdie fest, any non
birdi fest. You're looking at including those metrics. I think
Harris English's performance last year happened to be because he's
(10:59):
a great wind player and the wind popped up. Nobody
really expected that, and so those grinders like him and
Kirk Kittiyama and some of the guys that who really
just don't aren't phased by windy conditions on tough golf courses,
those are the kinds of guys that can rise up
if the weather is a lot like that. Right now,
I'm just looking at those straight up categories, see where
(11:20):
people are falling, and then just kind of going with
my gut for the tie breakers because this is a
very evenly matched field. I'll keep saying that throughout the show.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Now we will get to the odds for the Farmer's
Insurance Open in just a moment, But first.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
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Speaker 2 (12:11):
Let's get to the odds for the farmers. Xander Schaffley
is the favorite. He was plus fourteen point fifty at
last check, defending Champ Ludvig Oberg is seventeen to one,
Cameron Young eighteen to one, Patrick Cantley twenty two and
a half to one, Sewu Kim twenty four to one,
Jj Sphond twenty five to one, Chris Goddrup and Hideki
Matsuyama are twenty nine to one. Maverick McNeely, Jason Dane
(12:35):
Harris English are thirty one to one, Alex Norrin thirty
six to one, Keegan Bradley thirty seven to one, and
Taylor Pendrith thirty eight to one. Do you like any
of these guys?
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Bo I?
Speaker 3 (12:46):
Do I like Xander Schoffley. He's number one in my model.
I think it's interesting some of the books are going
to these single digits instead of increments of five. That's
actually helpful because it allows for less movement during the week.
I think that's why they do it, because we got
We're gonna get a little bit less of an edge,
but it's also gonna be a little more predictable with
(13:08):
the odds in one increments instead of five. Xander Schaffley's
odds are fine. It's double digits for a favorite. That's
always nice. What concerns me is this is a very
tough place to put at, even if you're a good
Poeana putter. He's one hundred and third in putting in
this field. He's also ninety second in proximity and approach
(13:29):
over two hundred yards. That is ugly. The rest of
these stats are beautiful, top five and top ten everywhere
else besides those two stats. So I like Xander Schaffley.
I love Ludwig Oberg. He is the match made for
this course so perfectly. He's just an amazing driver of
(13:50):
the golf ball, great ball striker, great long iron player,
and his prowess off the tn on approach kind of
covers up his seam weakest area, which is the short game,
most notably plutting. But he's still fortieth in this field
out of one hundred and fifty in putting. So I'm
not worried Aboutludwig Oberg in any category where there's a
(14:11):
couple of very important categories where I do wonder if
Xanderschoffley is going to be the right guy to pick
this week. I have no concern about Ludwig Oberg. He
is next. This is a very confident bet on Ludwig
Oberg at plus seventeen fifty this week.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Now let me hit you with a few bots for
both of these guys. So Andrew Schaffley, He's had three
top ten finishes in his last five trips to Torry Pines,
one of which was a ninth place finish at the
twenty twenty one US Open, and he was second at
the Farmers in twenty twenty one. But does it bother
you at all that he has not played competitive golf
since I think the week after the Ryder Cup the
(14:48):
Bay Current Classic in Japan, although he did win that tournament.
Speaker 3 (14:52):
Yeah, he should win that tournament. I am concerned. He's
typically a guy. Last year he had an injury that
made his early season really start rocky, and then it
took him a while to get into playing shape. Honestly,
that's I'm not worried about that as much as just
playing rusty at a golf course. This is the first
time you're playing competitive golf this calendar year, and it's
(15:13):
a it's at the Farmers. That's a real rust killer
if you're coming in not completely ready body right. I'm
a little concerned there, and so it goes to show
that I'm just not as confident in Shaftley as I
am an Oberg, even though Oberg's not hasn't been the
healthiest guy in the world.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Yeah, that's the bought with Oberg. So yes, he won
here last year. They played the Genesis Invitational a Tory
Pines last year because Riviera they couldn't play there because
of the fires in Southern California, so they played at
Tory Pines. Oberg won there, but something about the Southern
California climate doesn't agree with him. Bawl. He's from the
(15:56):
AMX last week due to illness.
Speaker 3 (15:59):
Whether it's two.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
Nice I.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
Like it was not one of those manufactured illnesses where
he was playing poorly. He was nine under par through
the first two rounds when he withdrew. And oddly enough,
Obert got sick at this event last year and had
a really tough weekend when he was just obviously not
in very good shape and route to finishing forty seconds.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
So does the illness bother you at all?
Speaker 3 (16:22):
It would if he was coming into the week still sick.
I did a little bit of digging today and found
that it was more of just like it was an
exhaustion type thing where he was he was sick and
he could still play, but he was getting tired and
he didn't think he could keep playing at that level
for the rest of the week. I think he's back
(16:42):
to one hundred percent this week, but who knows. Maybe
so cow weather just isn't agreeable for the young Swede's
he's a great player, and I hope he's one hundred
percent because this is the perfect opportunity for him to
really make a big name for himself in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2 (16:59):
Now, just couple notes on some of the other guys
with short odds. Cameron Young terrific off the tee. He's
certainly got the driver to win here, but he's missed
the cut in three of his last four trips to
Tory Pines.
Speaker 1 (17:10):
No short, no short game.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
And our guy see with kim Bo not on a
pete Die Course this week, but he has been in
really good form eleventh at the Sony, sixth at the AMX,
and he's had some top twenty fives at Tory Pines,
although he hasn't really seriously contended here. Hideki Matsuyama generally
plays pretty well at Tory Pines. It's a good enough
ball striker to win here. We just haven't seen Hideki
(17:35):
in peak form for a while. Then there's Jason Day
coming off the second place finish at the MX. Won
the Farmers Insurance Open in twenty eighteen and has posted
three top tens at the Farmers since that win. Also
always seems to do really well at Pebble. Just maybe
a good POA.
Speaker 1 (17:52):
Potter, Jason Diz. All Right, so let's look at some
of the mid range option.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
We've got Jake Knapp at forty to one, Adam Scott
four forty three to one, Michael Thorbe, Bjornsen is forty
four to one. Ryan Gerard and Rasmus Hoygard are forty
four to one, Sam Stevens forty six to one, Max
Hillman Wyndam Clark forty seven to one. Brooks Keepka in
his return to the PGA Tour is fifty to one.
Will zalatoris fifty two to one, Justin Rose fifty three
(18:20):
to one, Marco penge is fifty four to one, Garrik
Kigo fifty five to one, Rasmus Niegard Peterson fifty six
to one, Matt McCarty fifty seven to one, and Thorburn,
Olison and Aaron Ry are fifty nine to one. How
about this group, BO, Is there anyone you like here?
Speaker 3 (18:38):
This group is loaded with guys I love. Yeah. So
I have one, two, three, four guys in the strange
starting with Ryan Gerard playing out of his mind to
start this season. We kind of got glimpses of that
towards the tail end of last year with his win
at the Barracuda, which I was in attendance for. Really
nice guy, really good golfer, very very focused golfer. He's
(19:00):
playing extremely well right now and this is another course
that fits him. You don't think of Ryan Gerrard on
tougher golf courses, but when it comes to birdier, better percentage,
he's number one in this field. And I've been talking
about proximity on approach over two hundred yards. He's number
one in this field. In those two categories, He's top
five and strokes gained teda green, top five strokes gained
(19:23):
on approach. He's not the best putter in the world,
but everything else is pointing to Ryan Gerard paying off
at his odds. I got him at forty three to one,
and let's say I'm confident about Ryan Gerard. I am
ecstatic to have brooks Kopka back on the PGA Tour,
and I'm even more ecstatic to get him opening up
at fifty three to one is where I got him,
(19:43):
and this is a miss price. This is a top
five talented golfer in the world on a golf course
that fits him very well. He's one of the best
ball strikers I've ever watched play, and he's got a
really decent short game. He had last year was not
the best at avoiding bogies. He's a veryggressive player, but
he also matches that with a pretty good scrambling game. Ironically,
(20:05):
he makes bogies just from making mistakes, but when he's
in position he can score. And brooks Keopka fifty three
to one, I'm doing a full ladder on him outright.
Top five, top ten, this is this is this is
gonna be a welcome back kind of moment weekend for
Brooks Kopka. I'm excited for that. Two other guys that
(20:26):
you already mentioned, one or both of them Garrett, hego Lefty,
South African. He's coming at fifty eight to one. This
is your this is your rising star twenty twenty six
market right now. Garrett Keego is gonna win not one,
but twice this season. He's that He's very talented, very good,
well rounded player. Came in very high in my model
(20:48):
number seven overall and no stat worse than middle of
the pack here, so very very good putter and a
great ball striker to boot fifth in this in this
field avoiding bogies. That's what we like to see from
a young player especially, is a really good plan in
his head. And then on the opposite end of the spectrum,
a young gun with a lot of firepower. Maybe not
(21:10):
the most restraint, but we've seen him take on challenging
golf courses already in his young career. Marco Pine sixty
three to one is where I got him. Marco PINNs bomber, bomber, bomber,
light the he could light the South course up, that's
how good he is if he's on.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Yeah, I cannot wait to see him make his PJA
Tour debut.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
He's gonna be I mean.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
He's just fund so much fun to watch Marco Pinch play.
Speaker 2 (21:38):
Yeah, he can drill out. Another guy, Jake Knapp can
hammer it. Finished third in his Farmer's debut in twenty
twenty four. He was seventeenth and thirty second in the
two tournaments at Tory Pines last year. We know he's
long enough off the tee. I'm just not sure forty
to one is the right price for him.
Speaker 3 (21:53):
Especially when he's not the best at tougher golf courses.
We've seen him dominate on easier courses with where they
require good driving in length. He's good at that, but
he kind of tops out at that top ten level
when it comes to Tory Pines and other courses of
this caliber.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Yeah, they're Sam Stevens who's played well at Tory Pines.
He was second at the Farmers last year, sixth at
the Amex last week, so he's in good form. Max Homa,
how do you feel about him? Bo he's won at
Tory Pines. Does he have his game back in shape
after a disappointing twenty twenty five season. I mean, he
did finish fourth at the AMX last week. Are you
sold yet or still kind of in wait and see
(22:32):
mode with He was a.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
Guy I walked with at the Bearcuda last year when
I was I was very interested to see what kind
of mental state he was in, what kind of shape
his game is in. And I think that was about
the time where he started to turn it around, where
he could start to see his confidence comeback. Some of
these guys, the talent's always there, but sometimes they go
through it, sometimes a year or two long slump where
their mental game is that with the physical game, and
(22:55):
then the physical game suffers because they don't believe in
their their form. I think we're going to see a
bounce back from Maxhoma. I just don't know if it's
going to be here. Even though he's a returning champion
from the past, I think he's still going to have
to keep building back to where he was a few
years ago. I don't know that I'm wanting to bet
on him quite yet. He might be the kind of
(23:16):
guy I look at at Pebble Beach. In a couple
of weeks because those are the kinds of courses where
he can really use his strengths to his advantage.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Speaking of Pebble Beach, I'm kind of intrigued by Wyndham
Clark simply because he had one of the best putting
realms on poem that I've ever seen, was a two.
Speaker 1 (23:32):
Years ago at Pebble Beach. So yeah, his.
Speaker 2 (23:35):
Tory Pines track record not stellar, however, and you know
the Tory greens are not.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
The same as the Pebble Beach greens.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Will zelatoris he was not going to make the cut
at the American Express, and then he birdied his last
two holes on Saturday to make the cut on the number.
On the final hole of his Saturday round, he stuffed
his approach to about a foot and then he went
out and shot a sixty five on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (24:02):
So he's got a little bit of momentum.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
He's a great ball striker, and he's fared very well
in a lot of the strokes gained categories at Tory Pines.
So I'm intrigued by will Zlaturus. And then just to
get back to Kepka bo, I mean, we know how
Kepka gets up for certain tournaments, majors, big events. This
is going to be meaningful to making his return than.
Speaker 3 (24:27):
He's going to be motivated.
Speaker 1 (24:29):
Yeah, he is going to be fired up.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
So it does seem like these are very generous odds
considering this isn't a great field and uh, man, I
don't know. Maybe people are expecting Russ, but I like
him at this number of odds.
Speaker 3 (24:45):
Are a lot more apprehensive than we are. Let's just
say that.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Yes, what about guys with odds of sixty to one
or longer? Who are some of the who are some
of the long shots you've got your eye on?
Speaker 3 (24:55):
I have three guys, uh for the third time this season,
I'm gonna out how Tong Lee, who's had a great
start to this year. Very talented player, and he just
keeps making me look smart because I was talking about
him last year and now he's getting even better. He's
he's apparently Scotti Scheffler's best friend. Ninety eight to one
is where I got how Tong Lee this week. So
(25:16):
there still don't know who he is in the betting markets.
They're going to find out eventually. While he's still cracking
top tens in top twenties. I'm going to keep investing
a little bit in his outright, but more of those
placement bets with how tong Lee with his current form
being so good. This is a guy who in my
stat model is also a really nice darling, really right
up to the top. There can't beat that. He's seventeen
(25:38):
nine model on the heels of great bogey avoidance, top
ten in this field. The only thing he's not the
best at is just on approach. He's kind of middle
of the pack, but he's a really good birdie maker,
really good putter, and he plays tough golf course as well.
I like to see that from a young guy like
how tong Lee. And then your guy, this is a
guy he's coming in one one eighty five to one
(26:01):
Emiliano Grillo, and we love Emiliano on this show. I'm
usually not the guy that bets him that. I usually
let you bet on Emiliano Grillo, but he really popped
for me this week. Fourteenth of my model, number two
in bogie avoidance in this field and number eleven on
proximity over two hundred yards. That's a nice combination, especially
with those odds. And then my long long shot is
(26:24):
a guy who we've seen win before. Neil Shipley. Neil Shipley,
Ohio State Buckeye long hitter, great putter, and he's he's
gonna find some success on a course like Tory Pines.
Speaker 1 (26:37):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (26:38):
Not a super long shot, but I kind of like Pierson.
Cootie at sixty three to one, finished top twenty at
both the Sony and the MX, and he led the
tour in.
Speaker 1 (26:47):
Strokes ganin driving last season.
Speaker 2 (26:50):
Might have to go back to the well on Sammy
Vallamachi the finn He's one hundred and thirty to one,
ranked eighteenth in strokes gain an approach last year tenth
gained tenth in strokes gain putting bo Tony Finow not
at the top of his game, but he has seven
top ten finishes at Tory Pines in the last nine
years and he is one hundred and seventy five to one.
(27:12):
I have to do something with Tony Finow, and if
I lose my money.
Speaker 1 (27:17):
So be it.
Speaker 3 (27:18):
But I just that price, I mean, it's just still
I see what his top ten number is now.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
Oh, I can tell you what his top ten numbers.
We'll get to that in a moment.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
But what about your guy, Carl Phillips at three hundred
and thirty to one and finished top twenty at the AMEX.
Speaker 1 (27:34):
I'm intrigued.
Speaker 3 (27:35):
I mean, he's such a good player. I saw him there.
I just felt like I was feeling a little more
confident in in Neil Shipley this week, just based on
course fit. But yeah, you're not going to talk me
out at Carl Phillips three hundred and thirty to one,
just even as a top twenty bet. That would be
solid and I like rooting for the guy that.
Speaker 2 (27:56):
Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor,
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Speaker 1 (29:20):
Bo give me your hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 3 (29:24):
My hard rock bet of the week is how Tongley
at ninety eight to one. I just I feel something
in my bones that says how tong Lee is going
to surprise people this week, and it's a long shot.
It's meant to be a long shot. Nobody knows who
this guy is. I do, and I think he's good
enough to win this week. Ninety eight to one would
be an epic payoff. And what better way to kick
(29:46):
off the hard rock bet of the week than to
win a ninety eight to one long shot.
Speaker 1 (29:51):
For my hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Bo, you ask me what Tony Final was for a
top ten I'll tell you what it is, because that's
my hard rock bet of the week. Ton Finale for
a top ten finish at plus ten fifty that's ten
and a half to one. So yeah, I think that's
a pretty good price on a dude who's cast seven
top ten checks in the last nine years.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
That's a seventy seven point seven percent cash rate on
that on that bet, Yeah, over nearly.
Speaker 1 (30:20):
What does the rest, What does the rest of your
early betting card look like?
Speaker 3 (30:25):
So I'm going after Ludvig Oberg plus seventeen fifty. Ryan
Gerard plus forty three hundred, Brooks kept a full ladder
fifty three to one, outright doing top five, top ten,
Garrick Heego fifty fifty eight to one, Marco Penn sixty
three to one, and at a top ten on him
howtong Lee ninety eight to one. I'll throw on a
top twenty just to just to make sure we catch
(30:47):
something from how Tong and then Emiliano Grillo one hundred
eighty five to one, Neil Shipley rounding it out at
two hundred and sixty to one.
Speaker 2 (30:56):
Nice I'm gonna go with Jason Day at thirty one
to one, Will Zalatorus at forty seven to one, Brooks
kep Get fifty to one, Pearson Coody sixty three to one,
Sammy Velamachi won thirty to one, and then Carl Phillips
three hundred and thirty to one, plus a top ten
kicker seventeen. Now for the one and done competition, you
(31:16):
took Patrick Cantley last week bo He finished tied for thirteenth,
good for one hundred and thirty four thousand, six hundred
and eighty five dollars. I took defending champs Epstraca last
week and.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
He missed the cut. Bo.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
Now it's the lead by about twenty one thousand dollars
and you are up first this week.
Speaker 1 (31:34):
My friend, who are you going to go with?
Speaker 3 (31:36):
I am going to burn a big one. I'm going
with Ludwig Oberg right off the bat.
Speaker 2 (31:43):
Ludwig Oberg, all right, I'm gonna go with Jason Day.
Speaker 1 (31:47):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (31:47):
He has just played really well on this course and
uh he seems to be in good form. That is
all for this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. We'll be
back next week to preview the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
Until then, so long everyone.
Speaker 5 (32:06):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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Speaker 3 (32:19):
Also subscribe to our
Speaker 5 (32:20):
YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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