February 3, 2026 • 28 mins
Pat Fitzmaurice and Bo McBrayer recap The Farmers Insurance Open before exploring the top betting strategies for The WM Phoenix Open!
We dive into the betting odds, analyze the favorites and long shots, and reveal our top betting card selections to help you maximize your winnings as the 2026 PGA season rolls on!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Farmers Insurance Open Review - 0:00:50
Phoenix Open Preview - 0:03:12
BettingPros Premium - 0:08:22
Betting Favorites - 0:08:59
Omaha Steaks - 0:20:09
Long-shot Odds - 0:21:35
Hard Rock Bets of The Week- 0:24:30
Early Betting Card - 0:26:05
One & Done Competition - 0:27:37
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Bo mcbrair. Bo. In the first three PGA
Tour events of twenty twenty six, we have gotten a
two shot win that really wasn't as close as the
march in victory would suggest, a four shot win, and
a seven shot win. Will we at some point get
a tournament with some final round drama?
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Probably soon. I don't know if it'll be this week,
but yeah, yeah, I hope it's this week. I don't
much like the anti climactic Sunday finishes that you already
kind of know what's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Well, we might not be able to guarantee final round
drama at this week's WM Phoenix Open, but we can
guarantee plenty of sunshine and a disproportionate number of ineberated patrons.
And we will get to our betting preview of the
Phoenix Open in just a moment, but let's start with
a very quick recap of the Farmer's Insurance Open at
(00:54):
Torrey Pines. Justin Rose wins in a flat out runaway
fishes twenty three under par in a tournament that had
ideal scoring conditions, but the definition of ideal was much
different for the forty five year old Englishman than it
was for anyone else in the field. Rose opened with
a ten under par sixty two on the Tory Pines
(01:15):
North Course, followed it up with a Friday round of
sixty five on the much tougher South Course, then a
waltz home with rounds of sixty eight and seventy on
the weekend. Rose finished seven shots better than Sewu Kim,
who's at a nice little start to the season, Pearson
Cooty and Rio Husatsina. They were all sixteen under par.
Jake Knapp and Steven Jeger tied for fifth at fifteen
(01:38):
under par. Not a great week for OSPO. We weren't
in on Justin Rose. I would have had a profitable
week at Tony Fino been able to finish top ten.
I was getting ten to one odds on a top
ten finish, but he just missed, finishing in a tie
for eleventh. Your thoughts on the Farmers Insurance Open.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yeah, Fina, I thought was going to be a good
one for you at ten to one payout on the
top ten by one shot. He was tied with my
two guys Ryan Gerard and altong Lee for a top
ten finish, which would have been nice, but they all
three of them tied for eleventh and left us out
in the cold and no money in our pockets this week.
(02:16):
So yeah, we're chomping at the bit to get going
with the next tournament in Phoenix. But yeah, it's kind
of It was a kind of a rough go for
anybody who didn't bet on Justin Rose because it was
wire to wire and that sixty five on Friday on
the South course was incredibly impressive. Like the sixty two
on the North course awesome, very close to the course
(02:38):
record there, even on the easier North course. But the
South course sixty five on Friday, that's bonkers. That's domination.
Justin Rose not only a great golfer, great person. You
love to see him win. I would have loved to
see him win if we were talking about them all week.
But I mean, golf clap, good job, Justin Rose. I'm
(02:59):
a fan. I'm not as much of a fan Whin.
I didn't have any money on you. Lesson learned.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Yeah, thirteen under par for three rounds at the Tory
Pines South Course. It's pretty impressive. Now, the PGA Tour
briefly leaves California for the Arizona Desert. The WM Phoenix
Open is a welcome diversion during super Bowl Week and
we will have a strong field for this event. The
host course, TPC Scottsdale, par seventy one, covering seven two
(03:29):
hundred and sixty one yards. It's a good mix of
longer and shorter holes. The three par fives are all
reachable and two par five scoring is going to be
critical this week, but TPC Scottsdale really doesn't heavily favor
certain types of players. We've seen big hitters win the
Phoenix Open. We've seen bunters win the Phoenix Open. Ball
striking is important, but it isn't everything because it's a
(03:52):
desert course. TBC Scottsdale tends to play pretty firm and fast,
so it's important to have good touch around the greens.
It also helps to get how with the putter on
these poa Trevalis greens. Now, this is a good week
to pay attention to course history since there are some
players who consistently farewell at TPC Scottsdale, and we talked
about this last year. Bo The ability to play under
(04:14):
pressure is no small thing at the WM Phoenix Open.
Even though it isn't a major, even a signature events,
this tournament draws huge galleries, often around two hundred thousand
fans a day. Let's be honest, alcohol flows freely at
this event. It's half golf tournament, half party. These are loud,
(04:34):
boisterous galleries, and the sixteenth hole is as pressure packed
as it gets. It's only one hundred and sixty three
yards long, but you basically play the hole in a
colisseum with nearly twenty thousand people watching you. Crowded sixteen
goes crazy for good shots and it will boo bad shots.
Now the sixteenth hole part of a really nice finishing
(04:55):
stretch at TPC Scottsdale. It's got the fifteenth hole, a
risk forward par five with water down the left side
and surrounding the green, then the pressure packed sixteenth. Then
there's the driveable par four seventeenth hole, which is only
three hundred and thirty two yards but it has water
to the left and behind the green. And finally there's
(05:16):
the eighteenth hole, which requires a pinpoint drive over water
and in between bunkers. Thomas Dietrie is the defending Champ.
The Belgian blew away the field last year, finishing twenty
four under par to win by seven shots. Sounds familiar.
Nick Taylor won in twenty twenty four, finishing minus twenty
one and beating Charlie Hoffman in a playoff. Scottie Scheffler
(05:38):
won in both twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.
He was sixteen under in twenty twenty two to nineteen
under in twenty twenty three, and Brooks Koepka finished nineteen
under par to win in twenty twenty one. A forecast
for Scottsdale this week Sonny or partly Sonny. All four
days with highs ranging from seventy eight to eighty degrees.
No rain in the forecast, wins very light scoring conditions.
(06:01):
Ideal should be perfect weather bow. What are you paying
attention to this week in putting together your betting plan?
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Overall, it's a whole bag type of tournament. You're not
going to, like you said, not going to get a
specific style or archetype player that's going to consistently win here.
It's going to come down to who's playing the best
right now and more importantly, course history, this is the
third most predictive course as far as course history on
the PGA Tour behind Augusta National and why like country
(06:31):
Club when we had the Sony Open a couple of
weeks ago. So as far as course history goes, you
want the horses for the courses here. This isn't the
where you mess around and try somebody new that's never
seen Scottsdale before. You might get burned by that, but
it's more likely you're gonna find somebody like even shoot,
(06:51):
Charlie Hoffman, who doesn't do anything all year except for
when he comes to he comes to Scottsdale. Those the
kinds of guys that just show up here and in
or at least contend. One of those guys unfortunately Scotti Scheffler.
So it's it's just it's a tough tournament to bet.
I tend to keep it kind of a little bit
(07:12):
less on the foot on the gas this week because
it's it's kind of a spectacle like you're you're in
Super Bowl weekend. You're you have the party atmosphere at
right next to Arizona State, which is a very hardy
party school, like where I went at Chico State, Arizona State,
Chico State great party schools. They send people out there
(07:33):
to drink their fill, and whether they're watching golf or not,
it's going to be fun to watch on TV. I'm
not sure I like betting this tournament so much, except
for getting a little action parlaying the Super Bowl odds
with the golf tournament, because that's just good, good old
fashioned fun.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I went to the University of Wisconsin. We didn't drink
much up there. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Yeah, that's that's another one in the top ten of
party schools. So yeah that you said, Madison. Yes, a
whole bunch of badgers up there.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
You guys have your own signature cocktail, the Lunchbox, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
I haven't heard of that one. Uh huh. Yeah, there's
a lot of beer.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Wow, they have beer in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I can't believe it. We'll get to the odds for
the Phoenix Open in just a moment, but first.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
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Speaker 1 (08:57):
Slash Premium to the odds for the WM Phoenix Open,
Scottie Scheffler is in overwhelming favorite. He's plus two ten
to win out right. Xandra Schoffley is twenty to one.
Jadeki Matsuyama, Cameron Young, Ben Griffin and Sam Burns are
twenty seven to one. See who kimmis thirty to one.
Victor Hoblin makes his twenty twenty six deb this week.
(09:19):
He's thirty four to one, Maverick McNeely thirty six to one,
Brooks Kepka thirty eight to one, and Ricky Fowler thirty
nine to one. How are we dealing with Scottie Scheffler
this week? Bo and who else from this group has
your attention?
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Scotti Scheffler, Scottie Schefler, Scotti Scheffler plus two to twenty
five is the best odds I found. It makes me
kind of explore what like we did two weeks ago
with the NFC and AFC Championships, I had a strong
lean towards the Seahawks and Patriots, which ended up paying
twenty to one instead of getting your two and a
(09:54):
half to one payout on a Scotti Scheffler win. Scotty
Scheffler is a horse for the course, He's the best
golfer on the planet. He wins everything. He's got incredibly
short odds for a reason, very very high likelihood he
wins again this week. So I'm not going to stare
a gift horse in the mouth. I'm gonna say, let's
let's make it a little more interesting. Plus two twenty
(10:16):
five with the best odds I found on Scotti Scheffler outright.
But if you pair him with the Seahawks minus four
and a half, which I think will happen, you're getting
ten to one odds or five to one on so
plus five oh seven. So plus five oh seven considerably
better payout than two to one. Basically, So that's what
I'm doing is I'm not gonna hunt the lives because
(10:38):
it's just not the books are wise to us hunting
the lives on Scheffler they never let him slip anymore.
So a little bit of a parlay is a little
bit more of a safe bet, and it makes us
watch both both things. I'll have two screens. I'll have
the tournament on one screen and I'll have the super
Bowl on the other. So that's what I'm gonna do.
(10:59):
Plus five oh seven for Scotti, Scheffler and Seahawks minus
four and a half in a parlay. That's and then
Sea with Kim. It depends on where you look. But
that's the other course for the course. Uh, And that's
that's a guy who's red blazing hot, blazing hot starting
the season. If you go back the last six months,
(11:20):
Sea what Kim has been under par in thirty one
of thirty two rounds on the PGA Tour. That's as
hot as it gets. This guy has gone from a
very volatile winner die trying type player to a consistent
top ten machine. And it's not a Pete die course,
but it is a stadium course and seaw Kim has
(11:41):
done well here in the past, and he's playing so
well that I can't ignore him. Well, see where did
I get him twenty one to one plus twenty one
hundred without Scotty Scheffler's That's the other caveat is a
lot of these picks. You might not want to bet
against Scotty Scheffler, but you can get some decent odds
if you go with the without Scotty Scheffler market. I'll
(12:04):
do with Seawoo Kim plus twenty one hundred without Scottie Schffler.
So Seawoo Kim doesn't win, Let's see you finish his
runner up to Scotti Scheffler. You got the Scottie parlay
and you got Seawa Kim without Scottie Scheffler, you could
win twice.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Yeah, just to just to underscore your point about how hot.
See what Kim has been to start twenty twenty six
eleventh place at the Sony, sixth at the Amex, then
in that multi way tie for second last week at
the Farmers and at the Phoenix Open. He's finished somewhere
between twelfth and twenty sixth in each of his last
four appearances, so he's been pretty consistently good here. I
(12:43):
don't know that I can disagree with you on Scotty.
Look at what he did two weeks ago with the
American Express Desert Golf. Great scoring conditions and Scottie blew
away the field pretty much so similar setup this year.
I don't know what happened to him last year when
he was twenty fifth here, but there were the back
to back wins in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three,
(13:03):
and then he had a disappointing third in twenty twenty four.
So yeah, things are pointing toward possibly his second win
of the young year. Xander Schoffley bo missed the cut
at the Farmers last week, his twenty twenty six debut,
but he does have a really good track record at
(13:25):
the Phoenix Open. Schoffley has not played this event since
twenty twenty three, but his last three appearance has resulted
in top tens and his last six appearances were top twenties.
So any interest in him er? Is? He just not
priced right at twenty to one.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Now I need to see more. That was his first
miss cut in forever. That was the talking point all
week last week was will this be the week that
Xander Schoffley's cut streak ends? And it was I don't
like his form. I don't like the way he played
poorly on a course that he traditionally plays well at.
Torrey Bines. So no, absolutely know Xander Schoffley until he
(14:03):
shows us something. He hasn't really shown us anything since
his injury last year. He's gotten better, but that was
compared to how awful he was when he came back
early last season. So no, no Xander anywhere until we
see that he can get back to his previous form.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
No. Guy who has shown some pretty decent form so
far in twenty twenty six Hideki Matsuyama. So he was
thirteenth at the Sony, eleventh at the Farmers, and pretty
good track record here, back to back wins in twenty
sixteen and twenty seventeen. He's had five top twenty fives
in the eight years since his last Phoenix Open victory.
(14:44):
Comes in in good form. Any interest in Hideki ball?
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Yes, I'm still shopping odds. I didn't like what I
saw in a couple of books so far, but that's
another guy that you can't ignore. So right now against
with Scotti Scheffler, it's plus twenty five hundred. Without Scotti Scheffler,
it's even shorter. I want to see that slip a
little bit. I don't know that it will. I like
Kideki I don't like his odds, so we're just going
(15:10):
to wait it out and see what happens. But yes,
I do like the player.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I'm a little intrigued by Maverick McNeely. There's a nice
all around game and seems to like TPC Scottsdale. He's
finished top ten here each of the last two years
and had a solid showing last week with the Farmers,
finishing tenth. And then there's Brooks Koepka. He's an interesting case.
He hasn't played the Phoenix Open since twenty twenty two
because of his live tour odyssey, but he won this
(15:34):
event in twenty twenty one and finished third in twenty
twenty two, finished fifty sixth at the Farmers last week,
and his return to the PGA Tour just didn't putt well.
I thought he struck it reasonably well, but had kind
of a rough go on the greens. All right, let's
look at more of the odds. We've got JJ Spahn
at forty two to one, Harris English, Colin Morikawa, Chris
(15:56):
godder Up and Matt Fitzpatrick had forty four to one,
Harry Hollis forty seven to one, Jake Napp forty eight
to one. Saheith Thigala and Jordan Speith are fifty to one.
Corey Conners is fifty seven to one, Michael Thorbiornson is
fifty eight to one, Kurk Kitty Yama fifty nine to one,
Pierson Coody sixty to one, Wyndham Clark sixty two to one,
(16:18):
Rasmus Hoygarden, Keith Mitchell sixty four to one, and Daniel
Berger sixty seven to one. Does anyone stand out from
this group?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Bo two guys. One guy I'm gonna bet just without Scotty,
and that'll be Saheithigala, another guy who's just torched this
course since he was a rookie on the PGA Tour.
That was when he he took off his he took
off put on a basketball jersey, a Lakers jersey. I
believe because he's a SoCal kid, and the crowd went
(16:45):
nuts for Sai Thgala, who was a top five in
his first appearance here as a rookie. It's just a
great course for him. He sprays the ball everywhere off
the tee. Scottsdale overall is pretty wide fairways. There's some
narrow ones, but it seems like that's, of course the fit.
It's the gall is eye thirty three to one without Scotty.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
I like that.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
I like that line a lot. And then Kirk Kittiyama,
I'm gonna do both ways. I'm gonna do without Scotty
and with Scotti. So you're getting fifty nine to one,
like you said, with Scotty, and then without Scotty, it's
not bad. It's forty five to one, so plus forty
five hundred without Scotty. Kirk Kittiyama is desert golfer through
(17:24):
and through. He's from NorCal which is a lot of
high desert and chaparral brush and high winds and dry conditions.
I'm from here. I know it very well. And then
he's since he moved away from Northern California, he moved
to Las Vegas, and that's desert golf all the way,
high winds, dry conditions, fast, everything is hard packed. And
(17:46):
this is a kind of course that he can be
aggressive with. And it's a well rounded golfer. That's Kirk
Kittyama is extremely well rounded. He doesn't really have any
weak spots at this point in his career, and the
odds are really good. I think that's a perfect line
for my guy from Chico, California to make some noise.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
I am warming too. Saheitha Gala Bo had a real
rough go in twenty twenty five, not a good year
for him, but the track record here is excellent. Two
top five finishes, no miss cuts in his four Phoenix
Helpence starts, and he's finished top ten in each of
the last two weeks, so he does appear to have
things back on the rails. I like Jake Napp a
(18:25):
little bit. He's finished twenty eighth and forty fourth in
his first two Phoenix Helpence starts, but he's been in
pretty good for him early in the season. Eleventh place
at the Sony Open, fifth place last week at the
Farmers What about Jordan Spieth Bo, He's finished either fourth
or sixth here in four of the last five years.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
It's it's another guy. He's just like he's He's just
an older version of Sahiti Gala sprays the ball off
the tee to not much consequence at this golf course.
He is a crowd favorite. Again. Everybody loves Jordan Speith
because he's entertainment personified. If you had one hundred and fifty.
Jordan Speeds the PGA Tour will probably out out get
(19:08):
more viewership than the super Bowl because that's how riveting
his rounds tend to be.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
I like him.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
I don't know that he can win here because he's
just not quite there like he was eight to ten
years ago. But yeah, Jordan Speeth is fun. I don't
mind a top ten bet on Jordan Speeth at all
because he's so consistent at this type of place.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
I agree, I don't think he can bet him out right,
but he's interesting for a top five or maybe top
ten that I know. You just told me not to
mess with guys who haven't played this tournament before bo
but I'm thinking about messing with Pearson Coody, who is
making his Phoenix Open debut and comes in on a heater.
Over the last three weeks, he's finished thirteenth, eighteenth, and second,
(19:52):
So I'm not sure he's always garwer. He's got the
because I think he could make a lot of birdies
in a week where someone's probably gonna have to get
to twenty under to win.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Yew, his boogey avoidance does scare me a little bit.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
Yes, Now, before we get to our favorite long shots.
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site for details. All right, bo, let's talk long shots
players at seventy to one odds or longer. Who you got?
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Oh, my favorite spot. I have two guys this week
that are long shots. One of them I know is
gonna do well here because he's he's he's back on
an upward trajectory. That's Max Homa. He's coming in at
one hundred and fifteen to one. I love those odds.
This is a guy with a lot of firepower, great putter,
great short game overall. I think think his ball strikings
(22:01):
finally coming around where he's not as leary off the tee.
I think he's been mainly dealing with confidence issues stemming
from a bad stretch of a couple of years. I
think maxhom is back. I think he's really coming back
this year, and this is the kind of the first
chance that he's going to have as a long shot
to prove that he is back. And then a guy
(22:24):
who got in with a very unique proposal for a
sponsors exemption to this tournament. Joel Damon. Joel Damon was
in the running last week at the Farmers. He had
a kind of a rough Sunday, but he was in
the running behind Justin Rose most of the week, and
he wrote a letter to the waste management Phoenix open
(22:45):
on a jersey, a basketball jersey, and if you remember
back a few years, Joel Damon stripped down to completely
no shirt on the sixteenth hole, drove the crowd wild.
And so I think that the fan favorite Joel Damon
is a great pick. He's coming in at one hundred
and ninety to one, and of course your placement bets
(23:06):
along with that, your top ten, your top twenty are
pretty lucrative. But Joel Damon's playing some great golf this year.
His new caddy, Gino, and Gino Bonilly and him split up.
They're still best friends. I met both of them and
they're great. Joel Damon's new caddy's got him a new
focus on PGA Tour and it seems to be serving
him well, so I'll be happy to root for Joel
(23:28):
Damon this week.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
Nick Taylor interests me a little bit. At seventy eight
to one. That seems like a pretty good price for
a guy who won here in twenty twenty four and
was runner up in twenty twenty three. Taylor has also
done pretty well in his first two events of twenty
twenty six. You were on him last week it didn't
work out, bo but hatong Lee. He has not played
the Phoenix Open yet, but offers pretty good bang for
(23:53):
the bock at ninety to one, and I think he
might be a guy who kind of thrives on the
crowd energy. Yes, and I'm once again interested in Tony
Final at one hundred and thirty to one. We saw
flashes of the old Tony Fenw last week at the
Farmers and route to his eleventh place finish. You know,
finished second here in twenty twenty fourteenth and twenty twenty three.
(24:16):
Yelthough he has missed five cuts in his last seven
starts here.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Yeah, he's he's He's another guy like Maxhoma that we
see trending back to his previous form. It's very possible
he definitely has the firepower to do it. Today's show
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Speaker 2 (26:05):
Pat I need your hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
My hard rock bet of the week bowl. I'm taking
Jake Knapp in the winner without Scotty Scheffler market. He's
forty to one in that market at hard Rock Beat Illinois.
That's a pretty good price. What about your hard rock
bet of the week bow?
Speaker 2 (26:24):
My hard rock bed is also in the without Scottie market.
But it's Kurt Kittiyama and that's forty five to one.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
Very nice. What does the rest of your betting card
look like?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
So I'm parlaying Scotty Scheffler outright with the Seahawks minus
four and a half at the Super Bowl. That's a
nice convincing win for the West Coast guys. And then
you have Seawoo Kim without Scotti Scheffler plus twenty one hundred,
Sahi Thigala without Scotty Scheffler thirty three to one Kurt
kitty Yama. I'm doubling up forty five to one without Scotty,
(26:58):
fifty nine to one with Scotty. I think Kurt Kadiama's
got this saying he's going to be contending in my
two long shots, Max Homa at one hundred and fifteen
to one and Joel Damon at one hundred and ninety
to one.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
So, in addition to my forty to one bet on
Jake Nap and the winner without Scotty Scheffler market, I'm
going to bet Pearson Cooty outright at fifty five to
one and for a top five at plus eight forty.
I'm also betting Saheath Thagala for a top five. He
is also plus eight forty and I'm casting a little
bit of a wider net for Tony Fenw this week,
betting him for a top twenty at plus three fifteen.
(27:33):
Come on, Tony now for the one and done competition. BO,
you took Ludwig Oberg last week. Ludwig had a tough
couple of rounds and missed the cut. I took Jason Day.
He finished tied for thirty eighth and earned forty one,
seven hundred and sixty dollars. I regained the lead, but
I'm only up by about twenty thousand dollars. We've not
(27:53):
drawn a lot of blood so far. Bo. Let's change
that this week and pick some high finishers first this week,
and I will take Hideki Matsuyama.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
And I'm going to take a little bit of risk
and go with Sahi Thiala.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
That is all for this week's Betting PROSPGA podcast. We
will be back next week to preview the first signature
event of twenty twenty six, the AT and T Pebblebeach
Pro Am. Until then, Solong, everyone, thanks.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
For listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you love
the show, The best freeway to support us is by
leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow
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at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel
at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris
here with Bo mcbrair. Bo. In the first three PGA
Tour events of twenty twenty six, we have gotten a
two shot win that really wasn't as close as the
march in victory would suggest, a four shot win, and
a seven shot win. Will we at some point get
a tournament with some final round drama?
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Probably soon. I don't know if it'll be this week,
but yeah, yeah, I hope it's this week. I don't
much like the anti climactic Sunday finishes that you already
kind of know what's going to happen.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
Well, we might not be able to guarantee final round
drama at this week's WM Phoenix Open, but we can
guarantee plenty of sunshine and a disproportionate number of ineberated patrons.
And we will get to our betting preview of the
Phoenix Open in just a moment, but let's start with
a very quick recap of the Farmer's Insurance Open at
(00:54):
Torrey Pines. Justin Rose wins in a flat out runaway
fishes twenty three under par in a tournament that had
ideal scoring conditions, but the definition of ideal was much
different for the forty five year old Englishman than it
was for anyone else in the field. Rose opened with
a ten under par sixty two on the Tory Pines
(01:15):
North Course, followed it up with a Friday round of
sixty five on the much tougher South Course, then a
waltz home with rounds of sixty eight and seventy on
the weekend. Rose finished seven shots better than Sewu Kim,
who's at a nice little start to the season, Pearson
Cooty and Rio Husatsina. They were all sixteen under par.
Jake Knapp and Steven Jeger tied for fifth at fifteen
(01:38):
under par. Not a great week for OSPO. We weren't
in on Justin Rose. I would have had a profitable
week at Tony Fino been able to finish top ten.
I was getting ten to one odds on a top
ten finish, but he just missed, finishing in a tie
for eleventh. Your thoughts on the Farmers Insurance Open.
Speaker 2 (01:55):
Yeah, Fina, I thought was going to be a good
one for you at ten to one payout on the
top ten by one shot. He was tied with my
two guys Ryan Gerard and altong Lee for a top
ten finish, which would have been nice, but they all
three of them tied for eleventh and left us out
in the cold and no money in our pockets this week.
(02:16):
So yeah, we're chomping at the bit to get going
with the next tournament in Phoenix. But yeah, it's kind
of It was a kind of a rough go for
anybody who didn't bet on Justin Rose because it was
wire to wire and that sixty five on Friday on
the South course was incredibly impressive. Like the sixty two
on the North course awesome, very close to the course
(02:38):
record there, even on the easier North course. But the
South course sixty five on Friday, that's bonkers. That's domination.
Justin Rose not only a great golfer, great person. You
love to see him win. I would have loved to
see him win if we were talking about them all week.
But I mean, golf clap, good job, Justin Rose. I'm
(02:59):
a fan. I'm not as much of a fan Whin.
I didn't have any money on you. Lesson learned.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Yeah, thirteen under par for three rounds at the Tory
Pines South Course. It's pretty impressive. Now, the PGA Tour
briefly leaves California for the Arizona Desert. The WM Phoenix
Open is a welcome diversion during super Bowl Week and
we will have a strong field for this event. The
host course, TPC Scottsdale, par seventy one, covering seven two
(03:29):
hundred and sixty one yards. It's a good mix of
longer and shorter holes. The three par fives are all
reachable and two par five scoring is going to be
critical this week, but TPC Scottsdale really doesn't heavily favor
certain types of players. We've seen big hitters win the
Phoenix Open. We've seen bunters win the Phoenix Open. Ball
striking is important, but it isn't everything because it's a
(03:52):
desert course. TBC Scottsdale tends to play pretty firm and fast,
so it's important to have good touch around the greens.
It also helps to get how with the putter on
these poa Trevalis greens. Now, this is a good week
to pay attention to course history since there are some
players who consistently farewell at TPC Scottsdale, and we talked
about this last year. Bo The ability to play under
(04:14):
pressure is no small thing at the WM Phoenix Open.
Even though it isn't a major, even a signature events,
this tournament draws huge galleries, often around two hundred thousand
fans a day. Let's be honest, alcohol flows freely at
this event. It's half golf tournament, half party. These are loud,
(04:34):
boisterous galleries, and the sixteenth hole is as pressure packed
as it gets. It's only one hundred and sixty three
yards long, but you basically play the hole in a
colisseum with nearly twenty thousand people watching you. Crowded sixteen
goes crazy for good shots and it will boo bad shots.
Now the sixteenth hole part of a really nice finishing
(04:55):
stretch at TPC Scottsdale. It's got the fifteenth hole, a
risk forward par five with water down the left side
and surrounding the green, then the pressure packed sixteenth. Then
there's the driveable par four seventeenth hole, which is only
three hundred and thirty two yards but it has water
to the left and behind the green. And finally there's
(05:16):
the eighteenth hole, which requires a pinpoint drive over water
and in between bunkers. Thomas Dietrie is the defending Champ.
The Belgian blew away the field last year, finishing twenty
four under par to win by seven shots. Sounds familiar.
Nick Taylor won in twenty twenty four, finishing minus twenty
one and beating Charlie Hoffman in a playoff. Scottie Scheffler
(05:38):
won in both twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.
He was sixteen under in twenty twenty two to nineteen
under in twenty twenty three, and Brooks Koepka finished nineteen
under par to win in twenty twenty one. A forecast
for Scottsdale this week Sonny or partly Sonny. All four
days with highs ranging from seventy eight to eighty degrees.
No rain in the forecast, wins very light scoring conditions.
(06:01):
Ideal should be perfect weather bow. What are you paying
attention to this week in putting together your betting plan?
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Overall, it's a whole bag type of tournament. You're not
going to, like you said, not going to get a
specific style or archetype player that's going to consistently win here.
It's going to come down to who's playing the best
right now and more importantly, course history, this is the
third most predictive course as far as course history on
the PGA Tour behind Augusta National and why like country
(06:31):
Club when we had the Sony Open a couple of
weeks ago. So as far as course history goes, you
want the horses for the courses here. This isn't the
where you mess around and try somebody new that's never
seen Scottsdale before. You might get burned by that, but
it's more likely you're gonna find somebody like even shoot,
(06:51):
Charlie Hoffman, who doesn't do anything all year except for
when he comes to he comes to Scottsdale. Those the
kinds of guys that just show up here and in
or at least contend. One of those guys unfortunately Scotti Scheffler.
So it's it's just it's a tough tournament to bet.
I tend to keep it kind of a little bit
(07:12):
less on the foot on the gas this week because
it's it's kind of a spectacle like you're you're in
Super Bowl weekend. You're you have the party atmosphere at
right next to Arizona State, which is a very hardy
party school, like where I went at Chico State, Arizona State,
Chico State great party schools. They send people out there
(07:33):
to drink their fill, and whether they're watching golf or not,
it's going to be fun to watch on TV. I'm
not sure I like betting this tournament so much, except
for getting a little action parlaying the Super Bowl odds
with the golf tournament, because that's just good, good old
fashioned fun.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
I went to the University of Wisconsin. We didn't drink
much up there. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (07:56):
Yeah, that's that's another one in the top ten of
party schools. So yeah that you said, Madison. Yes, a
whole bunch of badgers up there.
Speaker 1 (08:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
You guys have your own signature cocktail, the Lunchbox, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (08:09):
I haven't heard of that one. Uh huh. Yeah, there's
a lot of beer.
Speaker 2 (08:13):
Wow, they have beer in Wisconsin.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I can't believe it. We'll get to the odds for
the Phoenix Open in just a moment, but first.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
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Speaker 1 (08:57):
Slash Premium to the odds for the WM Phoenix Open,
Scottie Scheffler is in overwhelming favorite. He's plus two ten
to win out right. Xandra Schoffley is twenty to one.
Jadeki Matsuyama, Cameron Young, Ben Griffin and Sam Burns are
twenty seven to one. See who kimmis thirty to one.
Victor Hoblin makes his twenty twenty six deb this week.
(09:19):
He's thirty four to one, Maverick McNeely thirty six to one,
Brooks Kepka thirty eight to one, and Ricky Fowler thirty
nine to one. How are we dealing with Scottie Scheffler
this week? Bo and who else from this group has
your attention?
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Scotti Scheffler, Scottie Schefler, Scotti Scheffler plus two to twenty
five is the best odds I found. It makes me
kind of explore what like we did two weeks ago
with the NFC and AFC Championships, I had a strong
lean towards the Seahawks and Patriots, which ended up paying
twenty to one instead of getting your two and a
(09:54):
half to one payout on a Scotti Scheffler win. Scotty
Scheffler is a horse for the course, He's the best
golfer on the planet. He wins everything. He's got incredibly
short odds for a reason, very very high likelihood he
wins again this week. So I'm not going to stare
a gift horse in the mouth. I'm gonna say, let's
let's make it a little more interesting. Plus two twenty
(10:16):
five with the best odds I found on Scotti Scheffler outright.
But if you pair him with the Seahawks minus four
and a half, which I think will happen, you're getting
ten to one odds or five to one on so
plus five oh seven. So plus five oh seven considerably
better payout than two to one. Basically, So that's what
I'm doing is I'm not gonna hunt the lives because
(10:38):
it's just not the books are wise to us hunting
the lives on Scheffler they never let him slip anymore.
So a little bit of a parlay is a little
bit more of a safe bet, and it makes us
watch both both things. I'll have two screens. I'll have
the tournament on one screen and I'll have the super
Bowl on the other. So that's what I'm gonna do.
(10:59):
Plus five oh seven for Scotti, Scheffler and Seahawks minus
four and a half in a parlay. That's and then
Sea with Kim. It depends on where you look. But
that's the other course for the course. Uh, And that's
that's a guy who's red blazing hot, blazing hot starting
the season. If you go back the last six months,
(11:20):
Sea what Kim has been under par in thirty one
of thirty two rounds on the PGA Tour. That's as
hot as it gets. This guy has gone from a
very volatile winner die trying type player to a consistent
top ten machine. And it's not a Pete die course,
but it is a stadium course and seaw Kim has
(11:41):
done well here in the past, and he's playing so
well that I can't ignore him. Well, see where did
I get him twenty one to one plus twenty one
hundred without Scotty Scheffler's That's the other caveat is a
lot of these picks. You might not want to bet
against Scotty Scheffler, but you can get some decent odds
if you go with the without Scotty Scheffler market. I'll
(12:04):
do with Seawoo Kim plus twenty one hundred without Scottie Schffler.
So Seawoo Kim doesn't win, Let's see you finish his
runner up to Scotti Scheffler. You got the Scottie parlay
and you got Seawa Kim without Scottie Scheffler, you could
win twice.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
Yeah, just to just to underscore your point about how hot.
See what Kim has been to start twenty twenty six
eleventh place at the Sony, sixth at the Amex, then
in that multi way tie for second last week at
the Farmers and at the Phoenix Open. He's finished somewhere
between twelfth and twenty sixth in each of his last
four appearances, so he's been pretty consistently good here. I
(12:43):
don't know that I can disagree with you on Scotty.
Look at what he did two weeks ago with the
American Express Desert Golf. Great scoring conditions and Scottie blew
away the field pretty much so similar setup this year.
I don't know what happened to him last year when
he was twenty fifth here, but there were the back
to back wins in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three,
(13:03):
and then he had a disappointing third in twenty twenty four.
So yeah, things are pointing toward possibly his second win
of the young year. Xander Schoffley bo missed the cut
at the Farmers last week, his twenty twenty six debut,
but he does have a really good track record at
(13:25):
the Phoenix Open. Schoffley has not played this event since
twenty twenty three, but his last three appearance has resulted
in top tens and his last six appearances were top twenties.
So any interest in him er? Is? He just not
priced right at twenty to one.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
Now I need to see more. That was his first
miss cut in forever. That was the talking point all
week last week was will this be the week that
Xander Schoffley's cut streak ends? And it was I don't
like his form. I don't like the way he played
poorly on a course that he traditionally plays well at.
Torrey Bines. So no, absolutely know Xander Schoffley until he
(14:03):
shows us something. He hasn't really shown us anything since
his injury last year. He's gotten better, but that was
compared to how awful he was when he came back
early last season. So no, no Xander anywhere until we
see that he can get back to his previous form.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
No. Guy who has shown some pretty decent form so
far in twenty twenty six Hideki Matsuyama. So he was
thirteenth at the Sony, eleventh at the Farmers, and pretty
good track record here, back to back wins in twenty
sixteen and twenty seventeen. He's had five top twenty fives
in the eight years since his last Phoenix Open victory.
(14:44):
Comes in in good form. Any interest in Hideki ball?
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Yes, I'm still shopping odds. I didn't like what I
saw in a couple of books so far, but that's
another guy that you can't ignore. So right now against
with Scotti Scheffler, it's plus twenty five hundred. Without Scotti Scheffler,
it's even shorter. I want to see that slip a
little bit. I don't know that it will. I like
Kideki I don't like his odds, so we're just going
(15:10):
to wait it out and see what happens. But yes,
I do like the player.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
I'm a little intrigued by Maverick McNeely. There's a nice
all around game and seems to like TPC Scottsdale. He's
finished top ten here each of the last two years
and had a solid showing last week with the Farmers,
finishing tenth. And then there's Brooks Koepka. He's an interesting case.
He hasn't played the Phoenix Open since twenty twenty two
because of his live tour odyssey, but he won this
(15:34):
event in twenty twenty one and finished third in twenty
twenty two, finished fifty sixth at the Farmers last week,
and his return to the PGA Tour just didn't putt well.
I thought he struck it reasonably well, but had kind
of a rough go on the greens. All right, let's
look at more of the odds. We've got JJ Spahn
at forty two to one, Harris English, Colin Morikawa, Chris
(15:56):
godder Up and Matt Fitzpatrick had forty four to one,
Harry Hollis forty seven to one, Jake Napp forty eight
to one. Saheith Thigala and Jordan Speith are fifty to one.
Corey Conners is fifty seven to one, Michael Thorbiornson is
fifty eight to one, Kurk Kitty Yama fifty nine to one,
Pierson Coody sixty to one, Wyndham Clark sixty two to one,
(16:18):
Rasmus Hoygarden, Keith Mitchell sixty four to one, and Daniel
Berger sixty seven to one. Does anyone stand out from
this group?
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Bo two guys. One guy I'm gonna bet just without Scotty,
and that'll be Saheithigala, another guy who's just torched this
course since he was a rookie on the PGA Tour.
That was when he he took off his he took
off put on a basketball jersey, a Lakers jersey. I
believe because he's a SoCal kid, and the crowd went
(16:45):
nuts for Sai Thgala, who was a top five in
his first appearance here as a rookie. It's just a
great course for him. He sprays the ball everywhere off
the tee. Scottsdale overall is pretty wide fairways. There's some
narrow ones, but it seems like that's, of course the fit.
It's the gall is eye thirty three to one without Scotty.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
I like that.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
I like that line a lot. And then Kirk Kittiyama,
I'm gonna do both ways. I'm gonna do without Scotty
and with Scotti. So you're getting fifty nine to one,
like you said, with Scotty, and then without Scotty, it's
not bad. It's forty five to one, so plus forty
five hundred without Scotty. Kirk Kittiyama is desert golfer through
(17:24):
and through. He's from NorCal which is a lot of
high desert and chaparral brush and high winds and dry conditions.
I'm from here. I know it very well. And then
he's since he moved away from Northern California, he moved
to Las Vegas, and that's desert golf all the way,
high winds, dry conditions, fast, everything is hard packed. And
(17:46):
this is a kind of course that he can be
aggressive with. And it's a well rounded golfer. That's Kirk
Kittyama is extremely well rounded. He doesn't really have any
weak spots at this point in his career, and the
odds are really good. I think that's a perfect line
for my guy from Chico, California to make some noise.
Speaker 1 (18:05):
I am warming too. Saheitha Gala Bo had a real
rough go in twenty twenty five, not a good year
for him, but the track record here is excellent. Two
top five finishes, no miss cuts in his four Phoenix
Helpence starts, and he's finished top ten in each of
the last two weeks, so he does appear to have
things back on the rails. I like Jake Napp a
(18:25):
little bit. He's finished twenty eighth and forty fourth in
his first two Phoenix Helpence starts, but he's been in
pretty good for him early in the season. Eleventh place
at the Sony Open, fifth place last week at the
Farmers What about Jordan Spieth Bo, He's finished either fourth
or sixth here in four of the last five years.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
It's it's another guy. He's just like he's He's just
an older version of Sahiti Gala sprays the ball off
the tee to not much consequence at this golf course.
He is a crowd favorite. Again. Everybody loves Jordan Speith
because he's entertainment personified. If you had one hundred and fifty.
Jordan Speeds the PGA Tour will probably out out get
(19:08):
more viewership than the super Bowl because that's how riveting
his rounds tend to be.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
I like him.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
I don't know that he can win here because he's
just not quite there like he was eight to ten
years ago. But yeah, Jordan Speeth is fun. I don't
mind a top ten bet on Jordan Speeth at all
because he's so consistent at this type of place.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
I agree, I don't think he can bet him out right,
but he's interesting for a top five or maybe top
ten that I know. You just told me not to
mess with guys who haven't played this tournament before bo
but I'm thinking about messing with Pearson Coody, who is
making his Phoenix Open debut and comes in on a heater.
Over the last three weeks, he's finished thirteenth, eighteenth, and second,
(19:52):
So I'm not sure he's always garwer. He's got the
because I think he could make a lot of birdies
in a week where someone's probably gonna have to get
to twenty under to win.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
Yew, his boogey avoidance does scare me a little bit.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
Yes, Now, before we get to our favorite long shots.
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(20:28):
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In fact, our son was in charge of preparing the steaks.
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(20:50):
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(21:33):
site for details. All right, bo, let's talk long shots
players at seventy to one odds or longer. Who you got?
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Oh, my favorite spot. I have two guys this week
that are long shots. One of them I know is
gonna do well here because he's he's he's back on
an upward trajectory. That's Max Homa. He's coming in at
one hundred and fifteen to one. I love those odds.
This is a guy with a lot of firepower, great putter,
great short game overall. I think think his ball strikings
(22:01):
finally coming around where he's not as leary off the tee.
I think he's been mainly dealing with confidence issues stemming
from a bad stretch of a couple of years. I
think maxhom is back. I think he's really coming back
this year, and this is the kind of the first
chance that he's going to have as a long shot
to prove that he is back. And then a guy
(22:24):
who got in with a very unique proposal for a
sponsors exemption to this tournament. Joel Damon. Joel Damon was
in the running last week at the Farmers. He had
a kind of a rough Sunday, but he was in
the running behind Justin Rose most of the week, and
he wrote a letter to the waste management Phoenix open
(22:45):
on a jersey, a basketball jersey, and if you remember
back a few years, Joel Damon stripped down to completely
no shirt on the sixteenth hole, drove the crowd wild.
And so I think that the fan favorite Joel Damon
is a great pick. He's coming in at one hundred
and ninety to one, and of course your placement bets
(23:06):
along with that, your top ten, your top twenty are
pretty lucrative. But Joel Damon's playing some great golf this year.
His new caddy, Gino, and Gino Bonilly and him split up.
They're still best friends. I met both of them and
they're great. Joel Damon's new caddy's got him a new
focus on PGA Tour and it seems to be serving
him well, so I'll be happy to root for Joel
(23:28):
Damon this week.
Speaker 1 (23:31):
Nick Taylor interests me a little bit. At seventy eight
to one. That seems like a pretty good price for
a guy who won here in twenty twenty four and
was runner up in twenty twenty three. Taylor has also
done pretty well in his first two events of twenty
twenty six. You were on him last week it didn't
work out, bo but hatong Lee. He has not played
the Phoenix Open yet, but offers pretty good bang for
(23:53):
the bock at ninety to one, and I think he
might be a guy who kind of thrives on the
crowd energy. Yes, and I'm once again interested in Tony
Final at one hundred and thirty to one. We saw
flashes of the old Tony Fenw last week at the
Farmers and route to his eleventh place finish. You know,
finished second here in twenty twenty fourteenth and twenty twenty three.
(24:16):
Yelthough he has missed five cuts in his last seven
starts here.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Yeah, he's he's He's another guy like Maxhoma that we
see trending back to his previous form. It's very possible
he definitely has the firepower to do it. Today's show
is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, hard Rock Bet,
Florida's sportsbook. We've got Super Bowl Sunday coming up this weekend,
Seahawks and Patriots. It's going to be a great day
(24:41):
of food and football, and of course I'm going to
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(25:02):
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Speaker 1 (25:12):
The Big Game.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
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Download the hard Rock Bet app and make your first
(25:35):
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Speaker 3 (25:36):
Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
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(25:58):
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Speaker 2 (26:05):
Pat I need your hard rock bet of the week.
Speaker 1 (26:10):
My hard rock bet of the week bowl. I'm taking
Jake Knapp in the winner without Scotty Scheffler market. He's
forty to one in that market at hard Rock Beat Illinois.
That's a pretty good price. What about your hard rock
bet of the week bow?
Speaker 2 (26:24):
My hard rock bed is also in the without Scottie market.
But it's Kurt Kittiyama and that's forty five to one.
Speaker 1 (26:33):
Very nice. What does the rest of your betting card
look like?
Speaker 2 (26:36):
So I'm parlaying Scotty Scheffler outright with the Seahawks minus
four and a half at the Super Bowl. That's a
nice convincing win for the West Coast guys. And then
you have Seawoo Kim without Scotti Scheffler plus twenty one hundred,
Sahi Thigala without Scotty Scheffler thirty three to one Kurt
kitty Yama. I'm doubling up forty five to one without Scotty,
(26:58):
fifty nine to one with Scotty. I think Kurt Kadiama's
got this saying he's going to be contending in my
two long shots, Max Homa at one hundred and fifteen
to one and Joel Damon at one hundred and ninety
to one.
Speaker 1 (27:10):
So, in addition to my forty to one bet on
Jake Nap and the winner without Scotty Scheffler market, I'm
going to bet Pearson Cooty outright at fifty five to
one and for a top five at plus eight forty.
I'm also betting Saheath Thagala for a top five. He
is also plus eight forty and I'm casting a little
bit of a wider net for Tony Fenw this week,
betting him for a top twenty at plus three fifteen.
(27:33):
Come on, Tony now for the one and done competition. BO,
you took Ludwig Oberg last week. Ludwig had a tough
couple of rounds and missed the cut. I took Jason Day.
He finished tied for thirty eighth and earned forty one,
seven hundred and sixty dollars. I regained the lead, but
I'm only up by about twenty thousand dollars. We've not
(27:53):
drawn a lot of blood so far. Bo. Let's change
that this week and pick some high finishers first this week,
and I will take Hideki Matsuyama.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
And I'm going to take a little bit of risk
and go with Sahi Thiala.
Speaker 1 (28:08):
That is all for this week's Betting PROSPGA podcast. We
will be back next week to preview the first signature
event of twenty twenty six, the AT and T Pebblebeach
Pro Am. Until then, Solong, everyone, thanks.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
For listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you love
the show, The best freeway to support us is by
leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow
us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram
at betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel
at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
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