November 18, 2025 • 31 mins
Join Matt Perrault and Pat Fitzmaurice as they highlight their favorite Week 12 bets, make survivor pool picks, and discuss betting strategies that are going to help keep you profitable all season long!
Timestamps: (May be off due to ads)
Intro - 0:00:00
Vikings +6 vs Packers - 0:03:12
Chiefs -3 vs Colts - 0:06:41
Browns @ Raiders Under 37.5 - 0:10:07
Browns +3.5 vs Raiders - 0:12:42
Saints -1 vs Falcons - 0:14:40
Buccaneers +6.5 vs Rams - 0:18:21
Survivor Picks - 0:21:34
BettingPros Premium - 0:25:24
Lock It In Early Bets - 0:26:01
BettingPros Premium - 0:29:05
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
What's up everybody.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
It's time for Week twelve Early bet Survivor looks and
things you should lock in right now for your betting menu.
This coming Sunday Thursday as well. He is Pat pix Morris.
I'm Matt Pearols YouTube channel for Betting pros is where
you find us each and every Tuesday for this Pat. So,
I can't believe it's already to week twelve. But if
(00:23):
I say the best team in the NFL is blank,
who are you writing into that space?
Speaker 3 (00:31):
I have to say the Los Angeles Rams right now.
I mean, they prove that that was the showdown game
they beat the Seahawks. Yeah, I mean they just no
one has really thumped the Rams like. They have no
bad losses on the record, and they've had some really
good wins and right now they're probably the least flawed
(00:53):
team in the league.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Where are you going with that?
Speaker 5 (00:55):
Well?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
How many team names do you have to put there
before you get to the Bronx ghost.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
I think the Lions are a better team than the
broncosh Okay, I just I think they're a better team.
Like the Broncos defense is very well, maybe the best
in the league.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Yes, their offense is nowhere close to the best.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
We just saw what a good defense can do to
the Lions offense. And when they play outside. If I know,
you don't play the Super Bowl on somebody else's home
home turf. So there's no way the Lions and the
Broncos would play unless they're playing outdoors in Santa Clara.
This is a big problem with everybody betting the Lions
to win the Super Bowl. Look, that Jared Goff outdoor
(01:37):
narrative is a real thing. He does not play well outdoors.
And that's why I think the Lions can beat the Rams,
because if they play the Rams in La Jared Goff's indoors,
he can win that football game.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
I the Super Bowl. Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
I don't know about the Lions out outdoors in Santa Clara.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yeah, that's that's a good point. Denver is is interesting.
We'll see how how far their defense can take them.
The offense has to show up at some point.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
I don't like I'm on record, I am not a
bow Knicks supporter. I am not a Knicks maniac. Whatever
you want to call the nickname of the people love him,
I'm not one of them. But he can do enough,
like we've seen it with Brock Purdy, right, just don't
lose the game. Like, just go out there and be
methodical and let that defense take you as far as
(02:30):
it can go.
Speaker 4 (02:32):
They could be the Trent Dill for Ravens.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Yep, run the ball, play defense, you know, throw the
ball occasionally and just let that defense go to work.
As Boy did they make that chief offensive line? Oh my,
that was something to watch. I'm a Patriot fan. I'm like, Nope,
Patriots aren't good enough to beat that team. Nope, Pats
aren't beating Denver. I tell you that right now. They
(02:54):
a young offensive line for New England up against that
rush for the Broncos. That is a ferocious, ferocious defensive
front the Denver Broncos. All right, we picked three games
each of us for plays. We're kind of on the
same page here for the first one, I think, Pat
where are you going for bet number one?
Speaker 4 (03:12):
I'm gonna take the Vikings plus six?
Speaker 1 (03:14):
Oh okay for the Green Bay Packers. Not where I
thought you were going. Wow, you're going.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Back to Dokel. I am going back to the wall,
And I don't know why keep going back to the wall.
On the Vikings. Matt right, why one of my.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Vikings are a red line for me? I am done.
I bet them last weekend. I am done with Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Yeah, they were one of my best early bets last
week at home against the Bears, laying three points and
they lost outright. And so now I'm going to take
this Dome team going on the road to Chile lambeau
Field in late November. Yes, I am The Packers are
three and seven against the spread this season. Yeah, they
have lost the Vikings at lambeau Field in each of
the last two years. Packers might not have Josh Jacobs
(03:55):
for this game, and they need to be able to
run the ball because their offensive line is not very
good at pass plot.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
I think they're going to have a really hard.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Time handling all the blitzes that Brian Flores is going.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
To dial up for them.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
And as we've seen, Matt Jordan Love prone to making
some bad decisions when he's under pressure. And I do
realize JJ McCarthy has been awful, awful, and yes, it
seems pretty unlikely that he's going to have a breakout
game against the Green Bay defense that could pressure him
without blitzing, but I do think the Vikings can scratch
out enough points with Aaron Jones in a revenge game
(04:31):
to make this a close game. I think they can
keep it close. Also, the Vikings have kind of a
sneaky special teams advantage their top ten and special teams
Dvoa Packers are twenty fourth, and honestly, Matt, I have
no idea how they rank that high because their special
teams are atrocious, like every field goal with Green Bay
in Adventure. I do think this is going to be
(04:51):
a close game, and I was kind of surprised to
spread was what it was. And right now, in fact, Matt,
Vikings on hard rock bats, you can get the six
points and it's minus one ozho five to take them.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
Yeah, so I'm gonna need more.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
I need, I need to be greedy, and I need
seven seven. I need seven or seven and a half
because that's the magic number for this Packers team. Because
again they were seven and a half point favorites against
the Giants and they are zero and six. When they
are favored by seven points or more over the last
six games, they do not cover that number. So I'm
(05:28):
with you if this thing climbs and gets me to
six to to seven or seven and a half, or
I'm teasing this up to twelve. If it stays at six,
I'll just tease it up to twelve. And I think
you're right. I think this is gonna be a close game.
But my gosh, this Packers team has been so inconsistent
and up and down, and the vikings outdoors. JJ needs
(05:52):
that he is going to rue the day. He ever said,
I have an ulterior personality named nine that he comes
out when I need him to. Because every joke, after
every bad throw for JJ McCarthy is all centered around
this alternative, you know, personality that he says he has,
like a superhero. So not a good look for a
(06:13):
guy who has really struggled at times this season.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
And I will say, though, you you mentioned the inconsistency
for the Packers. They're three and seven against the number.
They won their first two, they covered their first two games.
They're one in seven against the numbers since then, like
they played down to the level of everyone they play.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
I bet the Giants last weekend. I took the hook
that won by seven, seven and a half came in.
I like it my first play and I think you're
right here with me, So it's kind of like stealing
one of your players. I thought you'd go here first.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
But I like.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Kansas City laying the three here for them in a
big bounce back spot. I think Casey's got a shot
here to kind of remind some people that when their
defense stops the run, they can play with anybody in
the NFL. And I'm just not trusting Daniel Jones. I mean,
I saw it already once this year where they turn
(07:05):
the ball over six times. I feel like that might
happen again here. For the Indianapolis Colts, this is a
big step up in competition for them. This is a
really good defense. In all of the talk about Mahomes
and it's over and the Chiefs are going to miss
the playoffs. They're five and five, They're laying three against Indy.
(07:26):
This is just kind of like a principal play for me.
I'm taking Casey minus the three. I'm assuming you are
as well.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
I am, And this is one of my favorite bets too, Matt.
The Chiefs are five and five, they need this one badly.
They have their backs up against the wall if they
need to make their playoff push and they're gonna be
playing at home. Jonathan Taylor obviously has been a monster
for the Colts this season, but I don't think he's
going to rip up the Kansas City run defense. Chiefs
(07:54):
are always pretty tough against the run with Steve Spagnolo
calling the shots.
Speaker 4 (07:59):
So Daniel Jones is going to have to do his part.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
And you said it, Matt, it seems like he might
be reverting back to his mistake prone tendencies of the past.
In his last two games against the Steelers and the Falcons,
Daniel Jones's four interceptions, it's been sacked twelve times, and
he's fumbled six times six times in the last two games.
And yeah, the Colts lost to the Steelers and needed
(08:24):
overtime to be a.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Very flawed Falcons team.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So I'm taking the Chiefs at home, coming off that
tough loss and with their backs against the wall.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Now, three may cost you a little bit, but it's
worth it, Okay, if you if you got to pay one, fifteen, one,
twenty one, just pay the juice and go and take them.
And this is why, hopefully you guys watching this show,
as the week goes, this number is not going to
close at three or even three and a half.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I think this number is going to close at four.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I think you're going to see quite a bit of
money on the Chiefs when the limits open up as
the week progresses. I think there's an injury questions and
some guys on that defense. Obviously, there's some things going
on with the Chiefs internally as to what their offense
looks like. But as long as they you know, I
think everyone's good to go for this game. I think
this number climbs, so I would bet this number early
to jump in with it because I think three is
(09:15):
a great get.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
The same thing that happened with.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
The Cowboys game for them against the Raiders, like grab
three when you can. Obviously, three is the keyest of
key numbers. So Casey minus three, if you got to
buy it down, fine, But three and a half I
hate it because if you lose on the.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Hook, that's just really frustrating. To lose on the hook.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
I don't think that's gonna happen, though. I like Casey
by about seven points.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
How about you? Sounds about right touchdown just to win?
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Yeah, I mean.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
They the Chiefs sometimes just don't blow out opponents right well,
and they do that they'll play with like the Raiders
sometimes when they get a home game or lose to
them out right like they did on Christmas a few
years ago. Yeah, but yeah, that sounds right, Like I
hope this is not a close game. I don't think
this one comes down to the wire.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
So number two for you, this is your second play
is the Chiefs Mast three.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Yes, yeah, that one. I'm gonna save for the lock
it in. I want to get the three, so yeah,
that's gonna be my locket in.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Okay, So what's your what's your second play?
Speaker 4 (10:16):
It's Brown's Raiders under thirty seven.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
And a half an allegiance yes, oh my own, No,
you're taking an under an allegiance?
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Where the points coming from this game, Matt, Like with
Dylan Gabriel sustaining a concussion last week.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
The Raiders should often sucks. I mean sorry, defense sucks.
That's the no I know, but probably everyone gets scoring
the Raiders defense.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
That's my it's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
It's gonna be Shaduur Sanders yeaking his first NFL start
in your backyard. I know Shador had to come in
cold in the middle of the game last week. Like
not an easy situation, but the results are not pretty.
Four of sixteen for forty seven yards, no touchdown, in interception,
two sacks, a passer rating of thirteen teen point five,
(11:01):
which I believe is what you get like if you
just take a snap and spike.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
The ball into the ground.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
Yeah, and the running game stop working for the Browns
weeks ago. Queen Shawn Judkins is averaging three point two
yards per carry over his last five games, and that
includes some matchups against less than stellar run defenses, the Dolphins,
the Jets, the Ravens, and the Raiders. Their beating up
offensive line and beating up Geno Smith having to deal
(11:31):
with that dangerous Browns pass rush that features Miles Garrett,
who already has fifteen sacks.
Speaker 4 (11:37):
This game is going to be hideous.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Matt.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
I love it under thirty seven and a half. I
just can't imagine this game going over.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
We'll talk about it, but I think the Raiders are
in trouble in this game, and I think this is
Kevin Stefanski special. I think there's a coaching mismatch in
this game coming up at Allegian Stadium. I worry about
Pick six is in bumble roots and weird things and
it's just at Allegiant Stadium. I've seen so many strange
(12:04):
things happen where that I saw that. And when thirty
seven and a half for a game at Allegiant Stadium,
it's not Detroit, but it's close. I mean, it's the
games tend to fly over and there's you know, points
on points on points normally. So if you're right, the
Raiders should be the side then because we get a
higher scoring game and the Raiders probably win a higher
(12:25):
scoring game. The Browns want that want to they want
like a thirteen to twelve football game like the fel.
They want a field goal fest and they could win
a field goal fest frankly to go into it. So
it's sort of like dog in the under and the
favor and the over. I guess if you want to
have a correlated play for my second play, it is
the Browns. I'm taking the Browns on the hook here,
(12:46):
and I want the hook. I want three and a half.
And so that's why I would look at this and
don't bet three. I want three and a half because
like we're just talking about low scoring game, field goal fest.
The the Raiders defense can't stop anybody. But if You're right,
and Sanders can't play the position, and even with a
week of practice with the ones, he can't move the
(13:08):
ball well. Then I like the under even more because
I think it could be a ten to seven football game.
And I want the hook. I want that three, but
three and a half over the three to come in here.
So look, I just to me, I am feeling like
the Sanders drama needs to end. And the Browns are
(13:30):
probably kicking themselves for you know, deciding to bring this
upon themselves and bringing this guy in because he played
horribly and now Stefanski's got kind of his career tied.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
To this guy.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
And so like, if things really go south for the
Browns and they score like three points and he throws
two interceptions and goes four for twenty, I'd be very
curious to see what's going to happen for the future
with the brown So I like Cleveland plus the points,
how about you?
Speaker 5 (13:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (13:59):
And I mean Chadour is not without talent, Like he
is an anticipatory thrower, he's pretty accurate. Maybe with a
full week of practice and first team reps, like he'll
be more ready for this game than he was obviously
for for week eleven. But can I back the Browns
(14:21):
with as as little firepower as they have an offense
going against the Raiders. And I know how you feel
about the Raiders, Matt, and I do not disagree with
you on that. I just I would rather play the
total here than take a side fair. It's a good
way of approaching it. Your third play for Sunday? Where
are you going? We're getting real ugly in Week twelve, Matt,
(14:42):
We're gonna take the Saints minus one against the Falcons.
The Falcons have lost five straight games. They're three and seven.
They just lost quarterback Michael Pennix Junior and wide receiver
Drake London to what are likely to be multi week injuries. Well,
I think X has already gone and initially Pennix is
(15:02):
out for the year, so definitely a multi week injury
there in London too, He's not going to play in
Week twelve. Kirk Cousins looks so so bad this year. Like,
I'm not sure if Kirk Cousins could break a pane
of glass with one of his throws at this point
his arm loook shot. Yeah, no mobility. And without Drake London,
(15:22):
his top wide receiver is going to be Darnell Mooney,
who's having a terrible year and probably hasn't been healthy
since before training camp, and the Atlanta defense somehow managed
to let Bryce Young throw for more than four hundred
yards and three touchdowns against them. Was it career potb Yeah,
So the Falcons are not in a good way coming
(15:45):
into this game the Saints. Meanwhile, at two and eight,
I can't make the case that the Saints are a
good team, but.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Tyler and He's not that bad.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
When they have run into quality opponents this season, they
usually gotten their heads caved in Seahawks Bill's bucking Rams Bears.
I'll beat the Saints by twelve or more points. The
only good team they've sort of hung with were your Patriots.
Against bad teams, though Saints have beaten the Giants and
the Panthers lost to the Cardinals by seven way back
(16:13):
in Week one. I actually think Kellen Moore might be
a pretty good coach. Like they've generated at least two
hundred and seventy five yards of offense and all but
two of their games this season. Saints are coming off
of bye, They're gonna be at home. Falcons are coming
off a loss that effectively ended their season. I think
the Saints are just gonna be in a much better
head space for this.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
Game than the Falcons are. I think they're gonna beat
the Falcons.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
I wish the Raiders did what the Saints did. Like
bringing in Geno Smith was such a mistake. He was
such an awful, awful mistake to go ahead and say
we're gonna take him, because like Gino, I know what
in Vegas they were trying to do. Seventy three year
old head coach, give him a proven vet quarterback. Maybe
(16:57):
they sneak their way into a nine eight season and
they wind up in the playoffs, and then everybody in
Vegas is like, Okay, we're building something. The Saints just
it has burned it down to the studs and just said, hey,
we're just taking it apart. And you know, they have
to pay Kamara. Nobody wants the contract for the production,
so they're stuck with him, but everybody else goodbye.
Speaker 1 (17:19):
And we're gonna draft Tyler Shuck.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
We're gonna draft a twenty six year old quarterback who
can come in and play with Kellen Moore. Let a
quarterback friendly head coach developed the kid. I've liked what
I've seen out of him. I mean, I think he
can play. I think he's going to be a guy
that you can look at. He'll be in the mix
next year for the starting position for the Saints. And
that's more than what I'm saying about Geno Smith and
(17:41):
here in Vegas where people can't get him out of
town fast enough.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
Yeah, Mickey Loomis did not let himself get fooled into
thinking the Saints could contend for anything. There was no
pretense of that whatsoever. The the Raiders were just kind
of delusional.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
And yeah, running back sixth in the draft, just you know,
offensive line, how about that? I mean, offensive line would
have looked a lot better. I like ashting genty, but
my gosh, they had such bigger needs than coming in
with that, so I yeah, I don't mind that with that,
So you like the Vikings plus six, the Browns and
the Raiders under thirty seven and a half, and the
(18:17):
Saints laying one against the Falcons. For my last one,
I'm taking the Bucks plus six and a half. I
think this Buccaneers team is gonna hang around. It's Baker
as a dog, and I know that's why I asked
at the top you know who is the number one team.
There's my Geno Smith.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
Interception prop cash that.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
By the way, Gino Smith, every game, bet it, just
bet it, just bet it, just bet it, especially against
the Browns next week.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Just bet it.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Keep on betting Gino Smith to throw a pick. It
was minus one sixty tonight, pat That's how egregious this
is getting for an interception prop. Minus one sixty doesn't
matter it prop. Every single game Gino Smith throws a pick.
It's just like clockwork.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
More than one.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Most likely he throws one in home games. It's every game.
So against the Browns he will be picked off. So
Gino Smith prop throw a pick. Yes, but I think
when you look at Baker Mayfield, they gave up forty
four points to the Bills and they gave up twenty
eight points to the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
I can't see Genos.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
I can't see Todd Bowles going into this game and
saying we're gonna get beat again and get lit up
again by another good offense. I just feel like the
Rams will win this game, but the Bucks will keep
it close. I want seven, Okay, it's six and a
half at the time of taping, So I'm gonna take
the Bucks plus six and a half. I want seven,
But it's Baker as a dog in back to back weeks. Really,
(19:40):
it's almost three weeks in a row. Probably there was
a short line against the Patriots. This is a key
game for the Buccaneers. Things might get away from them
if they're not careful pat.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
They could get away from them.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
And they've had a little bit of a slowdown with
the passing game with Baker Mayfield. That does make you
think that maybe he's true and this is a great on.
It's a classic Baker Mayfield spot going into the Rams,
and maybe this is a lotdown game for the Rams
after their bake showdown.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Against the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
So yeah, I mean, it's it's interesting the numbers right
where I think it should be. Okay, Like I'm not
I'm not feeling super compelled about on Baker Mayfield, but
I don't think i'd want to take the Rams in
this spot. If I bet this, I am going to
take the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
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Speaker 1 (20:48):
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Speaker 5 (21:06):
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Speaker 2 (21:32):
We go to survivor contests and a little bit of
a bravo clap of the hands for anybody still alive
in their survivor plays because in some rever pools, because
you've made it to week twelve and last week was tricky,
hard week, This week equally tricky.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
What are the survivor plays you like? This week? You
got to have the teams available.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
There are some obvious ones, Pat, but I'm sure people
have burned like the Ravens. Most people have burned Baltimore
by now you think so.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
So yeah, here's my case on the Ravens, Matt, because
there was a while where they were unplayable. If you
did not play them in the first couple of weeks
of the season, you probably tabled them for quite a
while because the Ravens were no sure things. So I'm
thinking that maybe maybe some people still have the Ravens
in their pockets, and boy, you got to like them
(22:21):
as thirteen and a half point home favorites against the Jets,
who have no offense to speak of. They're going to
start Tyrod Taylor, but he is certainly no panacea for
this team, with Lamar Jackson coming off as raggedy as
start as you're ever going to see out of that guy.
Two interceptions in five sacks and granted, you know Miles
(22:43):
Garrett will do that to a quarterback, but this just
seems like such a bounced back spot for the race.
I would be pretty shocked if the Jets gave them
a game.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
So if you have the Ravens available, I'm with you. Obviously,
that's a big number. The Lions. If you've got the
Lions still available, that's a big number. And again, fading
the Giants has been my strategy with Survivor. It's fade
the Giants, fade the Titans, or the two teams I
think you can get away with. Seahawks are at the Titans,
Lions are against the Giants, and the Ravens are big
(23:15):
favorites going into this week thirteen a half point favorites
for them against the Jets.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
If you're gonna get risky? Can Can you bet the
forty nine ers? Can you? If you haven't used San Francisco?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Is this the week to come in and take them
against a Panthers team that you would expect after winning
last week on the road and shocking everybody that they're
not going to do it again.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
I would be terrified to do that because right now
the forty nine Ers are dead last in sacks and
dead last and pressure rate, And that might be why
Jacobi Prissett just set an NFL record with forty seven
completions against them, And I know it was because largely because, yeah,
blowout and the Cardinals were in catchup mode. But that's
what happens when you can't get out after the Passerer,
(23:59):
the other team can move the ball against you. And
maybe Perryce Young is feeling a little frisky after his
four hundred some yard game. So I would be pretty
terrified of taking the forty nine ers. But some people
might not have the luxury of taking the Ravens, Lions
or Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Yeah, if you don't have the Ravens, Lions or Seahawks available,
it's slim pickings. You're gonna have to probably get involved
with a team that you're not going to feel too
good about. You're gonna have to kind of close your
eyes and hope that you're going to wind up being correct. Remember,
if you're in the Big One, if you're in the
Circus Survivor, you have to have a team available for
(24:36):
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. That is its own week. That's
why nobody has used Baltimore up to this point. And frankly,
if you are still alive in that contest for eighteen
million dollars, I would not use the Ravens this week.
You got to use it for Thanksgiving and then you
have the following Sunday where you get the full slate
of games. But it is a two pick week next
(24:57):
week for Circus Survivor, and we are watching teams go
down quick. The number is down from eighteen thousand, we're
down to about one thousand teams left in the Circus Survivor.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
So that is a very This is.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Going to be a pressure packed week for anybody alive
because of what's going to happen the following week when
it's a two pick week and we could see the
end of the contest depending on what ends up happening.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
With the games on Thanksgiving and afterwards.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
For that guys, track these bets and get line alert
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(25:43):
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Speaker 1 (25:55):
All right, what bet do you want right now? What
do you lock it?
Speaker 2 (25:59):
In?
Speaker 5 (25:59):
Here?
Speaker 1 (25:59):
On two day?
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Chiefs minus three and I have already met this hard
rock bat gave it to me three points at minus
one fifteen and I definitely just wanted to grab it
at three.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
I like it, I do. I think it's a good play.
I think it's one of my plays. I like it
at three and I don't want it higher. So I
think you're right. Don't don't wait. If you can grab
it now, grab it before it moves. But yeah, I'm
laying the three for me as the time of taping.
We're tapping this on Monday night. I don't know what
the final score is going to be for the Cowboys
and the Raiders, but it's seventeen to six right now. Cowboys,
(26:36):
they're driving with a minute to play in the first half.
They're trying to go up twenty four to six at halftime.
And I talked about this all week long, said, if
the Cowboys don't kill the Raiders, I don't know what
I can do anymore for handicapping, because this fits every
single mode, every single model, every single trend. Like everything
pointed to a blowout. I laid the six points at
(26:58):
plus one point fifty on the Cowboys. If they don't win,
if they don't cover, I laid three. I laid the six.
So like everything's working out the way I thought at
the moment, we're going the way I thought it was
going to go. We hit on the Gino Smith interception
prop already, so we'll see how it all plays out.
But this number at three and a half for the
Browns at the Raiders is not going to exist for long.
(27:20):
It may be gone by the time we tape because
of this game, right now, Okay, if this game turns
into like a forty five to you know, to ten
or forty five fourteen type final and the Cowboys just
hang a ridiculous number on this Raiders team, the three
and a half is gone. It probably will be a
pick by the time the game kicks off. So I
want Browns plus three and a half here, just looking
(27:42):
at this defense for the brown for the Raiders. I
know the Browns offense stinks, but Gino Smith in this
offense is not going to do anything against the Browns.
I mean, team total Raiders under I like your bet
under Like, I just don't think we're going to see
any offense at all for the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Yeah, I'm worried that a total well, with the Raiders
giving up all these pretty months, maybe the total won't
go down at all.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
In fact, it might go up with this defensive.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
Right, I mean pretty darn low. George Pickens is gonna
take one to the Let's see to the house. What
a cut twenty four to six route is on? I mean,
I mean this was the to me. This is like
I told you before we came on this, This wasn't
a route. I was gonna hang up my betting shoes
and go you know what, I don't know what I'm
(28:29):
talking about, Like if this game, this game had everything
lined up for an absolute butt kicking for the Cowboys
against a really bad Raiders team. Raiders are bad like
they are. Oh, what's the flag for taunting? Well maybe
maybe a taunting?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Yeah, ceedee. Lamb was waving to the Vegas crowd. He
was waving goodbye already.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
When it's twenty three to six at the end of
the first half, So I bet team total over twenty
six and a half points for the Cowboys. They have
twenty seven here or twenty four rather at the end
of the first half.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Looking pretty good.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
Yeah, so we're going We're going in the right direction.
Coming up for that, guys.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
One more reminder that you can score six months of
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Speaker 1 (29:25):
On the way out.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
Let me ask you about your Packers. I almost bet
the Packers to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
How do you feel about the future This season for
the Green Bay Packers?
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Not very good.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
I don't think they are going to win a championship
and if they just don't have enough offense. Yeah, the offensive
line is not as good as I hoped it was
going to be. In the Tucker Craft injury was just
a keller.
Speaker 4 (29:47):
They needed him.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
He was such a unique advantage for them at tight
end and losing him was just tough. Still a really
good defense, not a team I don't want to play
in the playoffs in the early rounds, but I just
don't think they can make a multi game playoff run.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
We'll end it with this. Do you agree or disagree
that Matt Lafleur and Brian Gudenkust are on the hot
seat their contracts and next year they did not get
an extension this offseason, they would be lame duck GM
and coach going into the year next year.
Speaker 4 (30:21):
And there's a new team president for the Packers.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
So do I think they should be I don't think
Guda Kunst is a good drafter, but you know sign
getting the Micah Parsons trade to happen with a feather
in his cap, I don't think Lafleur should go anywhere.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
I'd like to see him extended.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
Okay, it's twenty four to six Cowboys, nearing the first
half to be an end. We'll see what the final
score winds up being when you guys watch this on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
Thank you for tuning in.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
Batt n Ira back next week for another episode of
your early bets and survivor picks right here on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 6 (30:56):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
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channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros
What's up everybody.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
It's time for Week twelve Early bet Survivor looks and
things you should lock in right now for your betting menu.
This coming Sunday Thursday as well. He is Pat pix Morris.
I'm Matt Pearols YouTube channel for Betting pros is where
you find us each and every Tuesday for this Pat. So,
I can't believe it's already to week twelve. But if
(00:23):
I say the best team in the NFL is blank,
who are you writing into that space?
Speaker 3 (00:31):
I have to say the Los Angeles Rams right now.
I mean, they prove that that was the showdown game
they beat the Seahawks. Yeah, I mean they just no
one has really thumped the Rams like. They have no
bad losses on the record, and they've had some really
good wins and right now they're probably the least flawed
(00:53):
team in the league.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
Where are you going with that?
Speaker 5 (00:55):
Well?
Speaker 2 (00:56):
How many team names do you have to put there
before you get to the Bronx ghost.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
I think the Lions are a better team than the
broncosh Okay, I just I think they're a better team.
Like the Broncos defense is very well, maybe the best
in the league.
Speaker 4 (01:12):
Yes, their offense is nowhere close to the best.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
We just saw what a good defense can do to
the Lions offense. And when they play outside. If I know,
you don't play the Super Bowl on somebody else's home
home turf. So there's no way the Lions and the
Broncos would play unless they're playing outdoors in Santa Clara.
This is a big problem with everybody betting the Lions
to win the Super Bowl. Look, that Jared Goff outdoor
(01:37):
narrative is a real thing. He does not play well outdoors.
And that's why I think the Lions can beat the Rams,
because if they play the Rams in La Jared Goff's indoors,
he can win that football game.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
I the Super Bowl. Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (01:53):
I don't know about the Lions out outdoors in Santa Clara.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
Yeah, that's that's a good point. Denver is is interesting.
We'll see how how far their defense can take them.
The offense has to show up at some point.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
I don't like I'm on record, I am not a
bow Knicks supporter. I am not a Knicks maniac. Whatever
you want to call the nickname of the people love him,
I'm not one of them. But he can do enough,
like we've seen it with Brock Purdy, right, just don't
lose the game. Like, just go out there and be
methodical and let that defense take you as far as
(02:30):
it can go.
Speaker 4 (02:32):
They could be the Trent Dill for Ravens.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Yep, run the ball, play defense, you know, throw the
ball occasionally and just let that defense go to work.
As Boy did they make that chief offensive line? Oh my,
that was something to watch. I'm a Patriot fan. I'm like, Nope,
Patriots aren't good enough to beat that team. Nope, Pats
aren't beating Denver. I tell you that right now. They
(02:54):
a young offensive line for New England up against that
rush for the Broncos. That is a ferocious, ferocious defensive
front the Denver Broncos. All right, we picked three games
each of us for plays. We're kind of on the
same page here for the first one, I think, Pat
where are you going for bet number one?
Speaker 4 (03:12):
I'm gonna take the Vikings plus six?
Speaker 1 (03:14):
Oh okay for the Green Bay Packers. Not where I
thought you were going. Wow, you're going.
Speaker 4 (03:18):
Back to Dokel. I am going back to the wall,
And I don't know why keep going back to the wall.
On the Vikings. Matt right, why one of my.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
Vikings are a red line for me? I am done.
I bet them last weekend. I am done with Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Yeah, they were one of my best early bets last
week at home against the Bears, laying three points and
they lost outright. And so now I'm going to take
this Dome team going on the road to Chile lambeau
Field in late November. Yes, I am The Packers are
three and seven against the spread this season. Yeah, they
have lost the Vikings at lambeau Field in each of
the last two years. Packers might not have Josh Jacobs
(03:55):
for this game, and they need to be able to
run the ball because their offensive line is not very
good at pass plot.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
I think they're going to have a really hard.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Time handling all the blitzes that Brian Flores is going.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
To dial up for them.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
And as we've seen, Matt Jordan Love prone to making
some bad decisions when he's under pressure. And I do
realize JJ McCarthy has been awful, awful, and yes, it
seems pretty unlikely that he's going to have a breakout
game against the Green Bay defense that could pressure him
without blitzing, but I do think the Vikings can scratch
out enough points with Aaron Jones in a revenge game
(04:31):
to make this a close game. I think they can
keep it close. Also, the Vikings have kind of a
sneaky special teams advantage their top ten and special teams
Dvoa Packers are twenty fourth, and honestly, Matt, I have
no idea how they rank that high because their special
teams are atrocious, like every field goal with Green Bay
in Adventure. I do think this is going to be
(04:51):
a close game, and I was kind of surprised to
spread was what it was. And right now, in fact, Matt,
Vikings on hard rock bats, you can get the six
points and it's minus one ozho five to take them.
Speaker 4 (05:04):
Yeah, so I'm gonna need more.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
I need, I need to be greedy, and I need
seven seven. I need seven or seven and a half
because that's the magic number for this Packers team. Because
again they were seven and a half point favorites against
the Giants and they are zero and six. When they
are favored by seven points or more over the last
six games, they do not cover that number. So I'm
(05:28):
with you if this thing climbs and gets me to
six to to seven or seven and a half, or
I'm teasing this up to twelve. If it stays at six,
I'll just tease it up to twelve. And I think
you're right. I think this is gonna be a close game.
But my gosh, this Packers team has been so inconsistent
and up and down, and the vikings outdoors. JJ needs
(05:52):
that he is going to rue the day. He ever said,
I have an ulterior personality named nine that he comes
out when I need him to. Because every joke, after
every bad throw for JJ McCarthy is all centered around
this alternative, you know, personality that he says he has,
like a superhero. So not a good look for a
(06:13):
guy who has really struggled at times this season.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
And I will say, though, you you mentioned the inconsistency
for the Packers. They're three and seven against the number.
They won their first two, they covered their first two games.
They're one in seven against the numbers since then, like
they played down to the level of everyone they play.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
I bet the Giants last weekend. I took the hook
that won by seven, seven and a half came in.
I like it my first play and I think you're
right here with me, So it's kind of like stealing
one of your players. I thought you'd go here first.
Speaker 1 (06:41):
But I like.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Kansas City laying the three here for them in a
big bounce back spot. I think Casey's got a shot
here to kind of remind some people that when their
defense stops the run, they can play with anybody in
the NFL. And I'm just not trusting Daniel Jones. I mean,
I saw it already once this year where they turn
(07:05):
the ball over six times. I feel like that might
happen again here. For the Indianapolis Colts, this is a
big step up in competition for them. This is a
really good defense. In all of the talk about Mahomes
and it's over and the Chiefs are going to miss
the playoffs. They're five and five, They're laying three against Indy.
(07:26):
This is just kind of like a principal play for me.
I'm taking Casey minus the three. I'm assuming you are
as well.
Speaker 3 (07:33):
I am, And this is one of my favorite bets too, Matt.
The Chiefs are five and five, they need this one badly.
They have their backs up against the wall if they
need to make their playoff push and they're gonna be
playing at home. Jonathan Taylor obviously has been a monster
for the Colts this season, but I don't think he's
going to rip up the Kansas City run defense. Chiefs
(07:54):
are always pretty tough against the run with Steve Spagnolo
calling the shots.
Speaker 4 (07:59):
So Daniel Jones is going to have to do his part.
Speaker 3 (08:01):
And you said it, Matt, it seems like he might
be reverting back to his mistake prone tendencies of the past.
In his last two games against the Steelers and the Falcons,
Daniel Jones's four interceptions, it's been sacked twelve times, and
he's fumbled six times six times in the last two games.
And yeah, the Colts lost to the Steelers and needed
(08:24):
overtime to be a.
Speaker 4 (08:25):
Very flawed Falcons team.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So I'm taking the Chiefs at home, coming off that
tough loss and with their backs against the wall.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Now, three may cost you a little bit, but it's
worth it, Okay, if you if you got to pay one, fifteen, one,
twenty one, just pay the juice and go and take them.
And this is why, hopefully you guys watching this show,
as the week goes, this number is not going to
close at three or even three and a half.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
I think this number is going to close at four.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I think you're going to see quite a bit of
money on the Chiefs when the limits open up as
the week progresses. I think there's an injury questions and
some guys on that defense. Obviously, there's some things going
on with the Chiefs internally as to what their offense
looks like. But as long as they you know, I
think everyone's good to go for this game. I think
this number climbs, so I would bet this number early
to jump in with it because I think three is
(09:15):
a great get.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
The same thing that happened with.
Speaker 2 (09:17):
The Cowboys game for them against the Raiders, like grab
three when you can. Obviously, three is the keyest of
key numbers. So Casey minus three, if you got to
buy it down, fine, But three and a half I
hate it because if you lose on the.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Hook, that's just really frustrating. To lose on the hook.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
I don't think that's gonna happen, though. I like Casey
by about seven points.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
How about you? Sounds about right touchdown just to win?
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Yeah, I mean.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
They the Chiefs sometimes just don't blow out opponents right well,
and they do that they'll play with like the Raiders
sometimes when they get a home game or lose to
them out right like they did on Christmas a few
years ago. Yeah, but yeah, that sounds right, Like I
hope this is not a close game. I don't think
this one comes down to the wire.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
So number two for you, this is your second play
is the Chiefs Mast three.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
Yes, yeah, that one. I'm gonna save for the lock
it in. I want to get the three, so yeah,
that's gonna be my locket in.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
Okay, So what's your what's your second play?
Speaker 4 (10:16):
It's Brown's Raiders under thirty seven.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
And a half an allegiance yes, oh my own, No,
you're taking an under an allegiance?
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Where the points coming from this game, Matt, Like with
Dylan Gabriel sustaining a concussion last week.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
The Raiders should often sucks. I mean sorry, defense sucks.
That's the no I know, but probably everyone gets scoring
the Raiders defense.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
That's my it's gonna be.
Speaker 3 (10:41):
It's gonna be Shaduur Sanders yeaking his first NFL start
in your backyard. I know Shador had to come in
cold in the middle of the game last week. Like
not an easy situation, but the results are not pretty.
Four of sixteen for forty seven yards, no touchdown, in interception,
two sacks, a passer rating of thirteen teen point five,
(11:01):
which I believe is what you get like if you
just take a snap and spike.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
The ball into the ground.
Speaker 3 (11:08):
Yeah, and the running game stop working for the Browns
weeks ago. Queen Shawn Judkins is averaging three point two
yards per carry over his last five games, and that
includes some matchups against less than stellar run defenses, the Dolphins,
the Jets, the Ravens, and the Raiders. Their beating up
offensive line and beating up Geno Smith having to deal
(11:31):
with that dangerous Browns pass rush that features Miles Garrett,
who already has fifteen sacks.
Speaker 4 (11:37):
This game is going to be hideous.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Matt.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
I love it under thirty seven and a half. I
just can't imagine this game going over.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
We'll talk about it, but I think the Raiders are
in trouble in this game, and I think this is
Kevin Stefanski special. I think there's a coaching mismatch in
this game coming up at Allegian Stadium. I worry about
Pick six is in bumble roots and weird things and
it's just at Allegiant Stadium. I've seen so many strange
(12:04):
things happen where that I saw that. And when thirty
seven and a half for a game at Allegiant Stadium,
it's not Detroit, but it's close. I mean, it's the
games tend to fly over and there's you know, points
on points on points normally. So if you're right, the
Raiders should be the side then because we get a
higher scoring game and the Raiders probably win a higher
(12:25):
scoring game. The Browns want that want to they want
like a thirteen to twelve football game like the fel.
They want a field goal fest and they could win
a field goal fest frankly to go into it. So
it's sort of like dog in the under and the
favor and the over. I guess if you want to
have a correlated play for my second play, it is
the Browns. I'm taking the Browns on the hook here,
(12:46):
and I want the hook. I want three and a half.
And so that's why I would look at this and
don't bet three. I want three and a half because
like we're just talking about low scoring game, field goal fest.
The the Raiders defense can't stop anybody. But if You're right,
and Sanders can't play the position, and even with a
week of practice with the ones, he can't move the
(13:08):
ball well. Then I like the under even more because
I think it could be a ten to seven football game.
And I want the hook. I want that three, but
three and a half over the three to come in here.
So look, I just to me, I am feeling like
the Sanders drama needs to end. And the Browns are
(13:30):
probably kicking themselves for you know, deciding to bring this
upon themselves and bringing this guy in because he played
horribly and now Stefanski's got kind of his career tied.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
To this guy.
Speaker 2 (13:42):
And so like, if things really go south for the
Browns and they score like three points and he throws
two interceptions and goes four for twenty, I'd be very
curious to see what's going to happen for the future
with the brown So I like Cleveland plus the points,
how about you?
Speaker 5 (13:58):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (13:59):
And I mean Chadour is not without talent, Like he
is an anticipatory thrower, he's pretty accurate. Maybe with a
full week of practice and first team reps, like he'll
be more ready for this game than he was obviously
for for week eleven. But can I back the Browns
(14:21):
with as as little firepower as they have an offense
going against the Raiders. And I know how you feel
about the Raiders, Matt, and I do not disagree with
you on that. I just I would rather play the
total here than take a side fair. It's a good
way of approaching it. Your third play for Sunday? Where
are you going? We're getting real ugly in Week twelve, Matt,
(14:42):
We're gonna take the Saints minus one against the Falcons.
The Falcons have lost five straight games. They're three and seven.
They just lost quarterback Michael Pennix Junior and wide receiver
Drake London to what are likely to be multi week injuries. Well,
I think X has already gone and initially Pennix is
(15:02):
out for the year, so definitely a multi week injury
there in London too, He's not going to play in
Week twelve. Kirk Cousins looks so so bad this year. Like,
I'm not sure if Kirk Cousins could break a pane
of glass with one of his throws at this point
his arm loook shot. Yeah, no mobility. And without Drake London,
(15:22):
his top wide receiver is going to be Darnell Mooney,
who's having a terrible year and probably hasn't been healthy
since before training camp, and the Atlanta defense somehow managed
to let Bryce Young throw for more than four hundred
yards and three touchdowns against them. Was it career potb Yeah,
So the Falcons are not in a good way coming
(15:45):
into this game the Saints. Meanwhile, at two and eight,
I can't make the case that the Saints are a
good team, but.
Speaker 1 (15:50):
Tyler and He's not that bad.
Speaker 3 (15:53):
When they have run into quality opponents this season, they
usually gotten their heads caved in Seahawks Bill's bucking Rams Bears.
I'll beat the Saints by twelve or more points. The
only good team they've sort of hung with were your Patriots.
Against bad teams, though Saints have beaten the Giants and
the Panthers lost to the Cardinals by seven way back
(16:13):
in Week one. I actually think Kellen Moore might be
a pretty good coach. Like they've generated at least two
hundred and seventy five yards of offense and all but
two of their games this season. Saints are coming off
of bye, They're gonna be at home. Falcons are coming
off a loss that effectively ended their season. I think
the Saints are just gonna be in a much better
head space for this.
Speaker 4 (16:33):
Game than the Falcons are. I think they're gonna beat
the Falcons.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
I wish the Raiders did what the Saints did. Like
bringing in Geno Smith was such a mistake. He was
such an awful, awful mistake to go ahead and say
we're gonna take him, because like Gino, I know what
in Vegas they were trying to do. Seventy three year
old head coach, give him a proven vet quarterback. Maybe
(16:57):
they sneak their way into a nine eight season and
they wind up in the playoffs, and then everybody in
Vegas is like, Okay, we're building something. The Saints just
it has burned it down to the studs and just said, hey,
we're just taking it apart. And you know, they have
to pay Kamara. Nobody wants the contract for the production,
so they're stuck with him, but everybody else goodbye.
Speaker 1 (17:19):
And we're gonna draft Tyler Shuck.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
We're gonna draft a twenty six year old quarterback who
can come in and play with Kellen Moore. Let a
quarterback friendly head coach developed the kid. I've liked what
I've seen out of him. I mean, I think he
can play. I think he's going to be a guy
that you can look at. He'll be in the mix
next year for the starting position for the Saints. And
that's more than what I'm saying about Geno Smith and
(17:41):
here in Vegas where people can't get him out of
town fast enough.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
Yeah, Mickey Loomis did not let himself get fooled into
thinking the Saints could contend for anything. There was no
pretense of that whatsoever. The the Raiders were just kind
of delusional.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
And yeah, running back sixth in the draft, just you know,
offensive line, how about that? I mean, offensive line would
have looked a lot better. I like ashting genty, but
my gosh, they had such bigger needs than coming in
with that, so I yeah, I don't mind that with that,
So you like the Vikings plus six, the Browns and
the Raiders under thirty seven and a half, and the
(18:17):
Saints laying one against the Falcons. For my last one,
I'm taking the Bucks plus six and a half. I
think this Buccaneers team is gonna hang around. It's Baker
as a dog, and I know that's why I asked
at the top you know who is the number one team.
There's my Geno Smith.
Speaker 1 (18:34):
Interception prop cash that.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
By the way, Gino Smith, every game, bet it, just
bet it, just bet it, just bet it, especially against
the Browns next week.
Speaker 1 (18:43):
Just bet it.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Keep on betting Gino Smith to throw a pick. It
was minus one sixty tonight, pat That's how egregious this
is getting for an interception prop. Minus one sixty doesn't
matter it prop. Every single game Gino Smith throws a pick.
It's just like clockwork.
Speaker 1 (18:58):
More than one.
Speaker 2 (18:59):
Most likely he throws one in home games. It's every game.
So against the Browns he will be picked off. So
Gino Smith prop throw a pick. Yes, but I think
when you look at Baker Mayfield, they gave up forty
four points to the Bills and they gave up twenty
eight points to the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
I can't see Genos.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
I can't see Todd Bowles going into this game and
saying we're gonna get beat again and get lit up
again by another good offense. I just feel like the
Rams will win this game, but the Bucks will keep
it close. I want seven, Okay, it's six and a
half at the time of taping, So I'm gonna take
the Bucks plus six and a half. I want seven,
But it's Baker as a dog in back to back weeks. Really,
(19:40):
it's almost three weeks in a row. Probably there was
a short line against the Patriots. This is a key
game for the Buccaneers. Things might get away from them
if they're not careful pat.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
They could get away from them.
Speaker 3 (19:50):
And they've had a little bit of a slowdown with
the passing game with Baker Mayfield. That does make you
think that maybe he's true and this is a great on.
It's a classic Baker Mayfield spot going into the Rams,
and maybe this is a lotdown game for the Rams
after their bake showdown.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Against the Seahawks.
Speaker 3 (20:08):
So yeah, I mean, it's it's interesting the numbers right
where I think it should be. Okay, Like I'm not
I'm not feeling super compelled about on Baker Mayfield, but
I don't think i'd want to take the Rams in
this spot. If I bet this, I am going to
take the Buccaneers.
Speaker 2 (20:24):
Got Today's show is being brought to you by hard
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(20:46):
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Speaker 1 (20:48):
To help you guide your picks.
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Speaker 2 (21:32):
We go to survivor contests and a little bit of
a bravo clap of the hands for anybody still alive
in their survivor plays because in some rever pools, because
you've made it to week twelve and last week was tricky,
hard week, This week equally tricky.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
What are the survivor plays you like? This week? You
got to have the teams available.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
There are some obvious ones, Pat, but I'm sure people
have burned like the Ravens. Most people have burned Baltimore
by now you think so.
Speaker 3 (22:00):
So yeah, here's my case on the Ravens, Matt, because
there was a while where they were unplayable. If you
did not play them in the first couple of weeks
of the season, you probably tabled them for quite a
while because the Ravens were no sure things. So I'm
thinking that maybe maybe some people still have the Ravens
in their pockets, and boy, you got to like them
(22:21):
as thirteen and a half point home favorites against the Jets,
who have no offense to speak of. They're going to
start Tyrod Taylor, but he is certainly no panacea for
this team, with Lamar Jackson coming off as raggedy as
start as you're ever going to see out of that guy.
Two interceptions in five sacks and granted, you know Miles
(22:43):
Garrett will do that to a quarterback, but this just
seems like such a bounced back spot for the race.
I would be pretty shocked if the Jets gave them
a game.
Speaker 2 (22:53):
So if you have the Ravens available, I'm with you. Obviously,
that's a big number. The Lions. If you've got the
Lions still available, that's a big number. And again, fading
the Giants has been my strategy with Survivor. It's fade
the Giants, fade the Titans, or the two teams I
think you can get away with. Seahawks are at the Titans,
Lions are against the Giants, and the Ravens are big
(23:15):
favorites going into this week thirteen a half point favorites
for them against the Jets.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
If you're gonna get risky? Can Can you bet the
forty nine ers? Can you? If you haven't used San Francisco?
Speaker 2 (23:27):
Is this the week to come in and take them
against a Panthers team that you would expect after winning
last week on the road and shocking everybody that they're
not going to do it again.
Speaker 3 (23:36):
I would be terrified to do that because right now
the forty nine Ers are dead last in sacks and
dead last and pressure rate, And that might be why
Jacobi Prissett just set an NFL record with forty seven
completions against them, And I know it was because largely because, yeah,
blowout and the Cardinals were in catchup mode. But that's
what happens when you can't get out after the Passerer,
(23:59):
the other team can move the ball against you. And
maybe Perryce Young is feeling a little frisky after his
four hundred some yard game. So I would be pretty
terrified of taking the forty nine ers. But some people
might not have the luxury of taking the Ravens, Lions
or Seahawks.
Speaker 2 (24:15):
Yeah, if you don't have the Ravens, Lions or Seahawks available,
it's slim pickings. You're gonna have to probably get involved
with a team that you're not going to feel too
good about. You're gonna have to kind of close your
eyes and hope that you're going to wind up being correct. Remember,
if you're in the Big One, if you're in the
Circus Survivor, you have to have a team available for
(24:36):
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. That is its own week. That's
why nobody has used Baltimore up to this point. And frankly,
if you are still alive in that contest for eighteen
million dollars, I would not use the Ravens this week.
You got to use it for Thanksgiving and then you
have the following Sunday where you get the full slate
of games. But it is a two pick week next
(24:57):
week for Circus Survivor, and we are watching teams go
down quick. The number is down from eighteen thousand, we're
down to about one thousand teams left in the Circus Survivor.
Speaker 1 (25:08):
So that is a very This is.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Going to be a pressure packed week for anybody alive
because of what's going to happen the following week when
it's a two pick week and we could see the
end of the contest depending on what ends up happening.
Speaker 1 (25:20):
With the games on Thanksgiving and afterwards.
Speaker 2 (25:22):
For that guys, track these bets and get line alert
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(25:43):
of Betting Pros Premium for free with your first deposit,
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learn more about that, log onto Bettingpros dot com slash Premium.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
All right, what bet do you want right now? What
do you lock it?
Speaker 2 (25:59):
In?
Speaker 5 (25:59):
Here?
Speaker 1 (25:59):
On two day?
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Chiefs minus three and I have already met this hard
rock bat gave it to me three points at minus
one fifteen and I definitely just wanted to grab it
at three.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
I like it, I do. I think it's a good play.
I think it's one of my plays. I like it
at three and I don't want it higher. So I
think you're right. Don't don't wait. If you can grab
it now, grab it before it moves. But yeah, I'm
laying the three for me as the time of taping.
We're tapping this on Monday night. I don't know what
the final score is going to be for the Cowboys
and the Raiders, but it's seventeen to six right now. Cowboys,
(26:36):
they're driving with a minute to play in the first half.
They're trying to go up twenty four to six at halftime.
And I talked about this all week long, said, if
the Cowboys don't kill the Raiders, I don't know what
I can do anymore for handicapping, because this fits every
single mode, every single model, every single trend. Like everything
pointed to a blowout. I laid the six points at
(26:58):
plus one point fifty on the Cowboys. If they don't win,
if they don't cover, I laid three. I laid the six.
So like everything's working out the way I thought at
the moment, we're going the way I thought it was
going to go. We hit on the Gino Smith interception
prop already, so we'll see how it all plays out.
But this number at three and a half for the
Browns at the Raiders is not going to exist for long.
(27:20):
It may be gone by the time we tape because
of this game, right now, Okay, if this game turns
into like a forty five to you know, to ten
or forty five fourteen type final and the Cowboys just
hang a ridiculous number on this Raiders team, the three
and a half is gone. It probably will be a
pick by the time the game kicks off. So I
want Browns plus three and a half here, just looking
(27:42):
at this defense for the brown for the Raiders. I
know the Browns offense stinks, but Gino Smith in this
offense is not going to do anything against the Browns.
I mean, team total Raiders under I like your bet
under Like, I just don't think we're going to see
any offense at all for the Raiders.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
Yeah, I'm worried that a total well, with the Raiders
giving up all these pretty months, maybe the total won't
go down at all.
Speaker 4 (28:06):
In fact, it might go up with this defensive.
Speaker 2 (28:08):
Right, I mean pretty darn low. George Pickens is gonna
take one to the Let's see to the house. What
a cut twenty four to six route is on? I mean,
I mean this was the to me. This is like
I told you before we came on this, This wasn't
a route. I was gonna hang up my betting shoes
and go you know what, I don't know what I'm
(28:29):
talking about, Like if this game, this game had everything
lined up for an absolute butt kicking for the Cowboys
against a really bad Raiders team. Raiders are bad like
they are. Oh, what's the flag for taunting? Well maybe
maybe a taunting?
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Yeah, ceedee. Lamb was waving to the Vegas crowd. He
was waving goodbye already.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
When it's twenty three to six at the end of
the first half, So I bet team total over twenty
six and a half points for the Cowboys. They have
twenty seven here or twenty four rather at the end
of the first half.
Speaker 4 (29:00):
Looking pretty good.
Speaker 1 (29:01):
Yeah, so we're going We're going in the right direction.
Coming up for that, guys.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
One more reminder that you can score six months of
Betting pros Premium for free. Just make a deposit and
place your radio on a partner sports board. Premium gives
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Speaker 1 (29:25):
On the way out.
Speaker 2 (29:26):
Let me ask you about your Packers. I almost bet
the Packers to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1 (29:31):
How do you feel about the future This season for
the Green Bay Packers?
Speaker 4 (29:35):
Not very good.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
I don't think they are going to win a championship
and if they just don't have enough offense. Yeah, the offensive
line is not as good as I hoped it was
going to be. In the Tucker Craft injury was just
a keller.
Speaker 4 (29:47):
They needed him.
Speaker 3 (29:48):
He was such a unique advantage for them at tight
end and losing him was just tough. Still a really
good defense, not a team I don't want to play
in the playoffs in the early rounds, but I just
don't think they can make a multi game playoff run.
Speaker 2 (30:06):
We'll end it with this. Do you agree or disagree
that Matt Lafleur and Brian Gudenkust are on the hot
seat their contracts and next year they did not get
an extension this offseason, they would be lame duck GM
and coach going into the year next year.
Speaker 4 (30:21):
And there's a new team president for the Packers.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
So do I think they should be I don't think
Guda Kunst is a good drafter, but you know sign
getting the Micah Parsons trade to happen with a feather
in his cap, I don't think Lafleur should go anywhere.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
I'd like to see him extended.
Speaker 2 (30:40):
Okay, it's twenty four to six Cowboys, nearing the first
half to be an end. We'll see what the final
score winds up being when you guys watch this on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (30:47):
Thank you for tuning in.
Speaker 2 (30:48):
Batt n Ira back next week for another episode of
your early bets and survivor picks right here on the
Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 6 (30:56):
Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you
love the show, the best freeway to support us is
by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and
Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube
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