March 13, 2026 • 38 mins
This week we explore why very expensive oil might be sticking around despite President Trump’s on-again-off-again declarations of victory in Iran. We break down the "20-cent rule" for gas prices, the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and the political fallout for the midterms. Plus: Bloomberg’s Ben Steverman on the Wild West that is white collar salaries.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Hey Stacey, Max Chafkin, I have a question for you.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Okay, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
You are a car owner.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
I am a motorist.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Yes, okay, this week have you filled up your gas tank?
Speaker 4 (00:21):
I filled up my gas this weekend and it was
like three dollars and twenty cents a gallon something like
that which I had filled up maybe I don't know,
ten days before, and I think it was less than
two ninety. It was like two eighty nine or something. Acgawan,
so like a thirty cent per gallon premium.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It hurt.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
See. This is such an interesting conversation for so many reasons,
not only because you have seen the price of gas increase,
which people have been seeing all across the country. In fact,
the price of gas went from a US average of
around two dollars and ninety five cents a gallon to
over three dollars and fifty cents a gallon, but also
because you remember the price of it more than almost
(01:03):
any other price in our economy. Gas prices they really
stick with us, and of course since the US attack
on Iran, Brent Krude, which is kind of the pricing
standard that people talk about around the world has risen
from around sixty five dollars a barrel to almost one
hundred and twenty dollars a barrel at one point. It's
come down, but it is very volatile situation, and you
(01:27):
know this affects countries all over the world, companies all
over the world, and people like you trying to figure
out how much gas is going to cost if you're
planning a trip for your family. Max, We're going to
have a longer conversation about all this, but today on
the show, what the rising prices of oil means for you?
(01:49):
You the listener, and you MaTx Chafkin and Stacy.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
I have a question for you, okay, is with all
of the layoffs and the stories about AI economic uncertainty,
what is knowledge work? This feels very deep it What
is knowledge?
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I mean, excellent question. It is work that one can
do when one is extremely physically out of shape. That's
my definition.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
We have Bloomberg reporter Ben Steverman, who is in very
good shape but also very knowledgeable, to join us for
this topic.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
This is Everybody's business from Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Stacey Mannix.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
Smith, I'm Max Schafkins. Stay with US for a deeper
dive into the true cost of oil in the US.
Speaker 5 (02:39):
We're here at a mobile gas station and like the
Crown Heights betside border in Brooklyn. Can you tell me
what brings you here?
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Much?
Speaker 3 (02:47):
You guess it's really ridiculous.
Speaker 5 (02:50):
Do you remember how much things used to be when
I bone it was.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Sixty cent back end of the day is thirty years ago,
it was.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
That here in New York?
Speaker 6 (02:58):
Yes, oh my god.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
How much you plan to spend today at the power?
Speaker 7 (03:03):
Well today it's looking a little bit different because yesterday
was at three fifteen.
Speaker 8 (03:08):
Now all I saw in today is at three twenty nine.
Speaker 7 (03:11):
So the price is that like drastically going up it was.
Speaker 8 (03:14):
It used to be too fifty three for a regular
before I used to spend fifteen. Now probably I'm gonna
have to spend twenty today to put out like half
of the tank so I can start working.
Speaker 5 (03:26):
How much did you end up filling your truck up
with today?
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Well, half of my tank because you're leaving the class.
Speaker 7 (03:32):
So I'm putting about three five dozend gas just to
move around.
Speaker 9 (03:36):
I'm using diesel.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
It's five dollars, oh my god.
Speaker 8 (03:39):
Yes, And I'm put in one hundred gallon, it's five
hundred dollars.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
Five hundred dollars every day, Yes, every day, every day?
How often do you fill up?
Speaker 10 (03:48):
Every day?
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Everything? Day? Every day, every day?
Speaker 7 (03:51):
Because what I did, what it is is that I
I manage half a tank, so I make a certain
amount of money with a a tank. So as soon
as I finished a half a tank and I come
and refiel.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I think they could do better on the gas. When
you say who can do better?
Speaker 4 (04:07):
Who do you mean? Oh? What?
Speaker 5 (04:09):
President? A lot of this is happening due to like
the current war, Like is that something you've been following
as far as like that in prices of oil and things, Well,
I was not.
Speaker 7 (04:16):
Even interested in that situation. Better now that I see
that effects, I'm looking forward to see what's going on
because it's definitely hitting affecting the packast.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
That is producer Jasmine JT. Green at a gas station
in Brooklyn here in New York, where the average price
of gas right now is three dollars and forty eight
cents a gallon, which is a little bit lower than
it is in a lot of the country.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
One of the things that I think has been so
strange to watch is just a couple of weeks ago,
President Trump was at the State of Union and Young address.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
We talked about the State of the Union.
Speaker 4 (04:49):
I can't remember if we mentioned this or not, but
one of the things he was touting was he's got
you know, gas prices are low. It's a thing people
care about it. It actually felt like one of his
best moments in that speech.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Yeah, he talked about the price of gas in Iowa
at a station in Iowa being about a dollar eighty
a gallon. Right now, since the attack, the average price
of gas in Iowa three dollars and twenty cents a gallon.
So I looked into this for an article in BusinessWeek,
and this is just it's a really interesting situation for
a lot of reasons because of exactly what you said.
(05:24):
This was really the breakout star of Trump's first year
in office, was inflation being pretty under control, energy prices
coming down all across the country. This was just a
big win for the Trump administration. And you know we're
going into the midterms, these are going to be tight elections.
We've talked about this on the show. And doing something
(05:44):
that makes not only the price of gas go up,
which people are very sensitive to. But you know, gas
goes into everything.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
It's not just something goes into everything. It's something that
people notice. I was thinking back to when I was
just learning to drive in like nineteen ninety seven or
ninety eight, Like I remember eighty nine cents one gas
station in Jersey. You could go, you could guess for
eighty nine cents, And it's like everybody remembers the price
of gas time everywhere.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
We don't interact with many prices like the price of gas.
It's something people really connect with. They remember their emotional
about it. I talked with Michelle Brohard. She is the
head of policy and geopolitical risk at Keupler, and she
looks at energy prices. She had all of her spreadsheets out,
and she told me that she basically concluded when she
was looking at all this data that there was no
(06:33):
way that President Trump would attack Iran for exactly this reason.
Speaker 11 (06:39):
The question on high prices is how long will that
straight be closed? Presumably Trump will cry uncle if prices
get too high. Right, is an entire economic agenda rests
on low energy prices.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
So this is why I thought there's just no way
he would.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
Do the thing that I wanted to talk about today
is that relationship between what happens with the oil markets
and what we pay at the pump, because like, gas
and oil are not the same thing. I think the
first thing we got to do is just like explain
what is gas and how does it relate to the
black stuff that comes out of the ground.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
I mean, it's a great question. One of the things
that people have asked me about a lot recently is like,
wait a minute. I mean, the US is the largest
oil producer in the world, so why are we paying
these higher prices?
Speaker 9 (07:30):
Right?
Speaker 2 (07:30):
I mean the strait that Michelle was talking about, the
Strait of Horn Mouz, where twenty percent of the world's
oil goes through this little twelve mile passageway between the
Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Nicely done, thank you,
But you know, we have a ton of oil here.
But our gas companies are oil companies basically trade on
(07:52):
the global market, and so oil is sort of just
the commodity, right. It's like if you look at something
like cotton, it's the cotton plants or is this is
oil the raw product? And then gas is what it
gets refined into gasoline.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yes, petrol for those.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Gas, and it gets refined into different levels. Right, there's
jet fuel at the very top that is the purest
and the most expensive, and then there's like diesel, and
you know, there's also the really low grade stuff that
gets used for like asphalt and things like that. But
it all comes from oil. And so there is a
relationship between oil and gas, but it's not one to one.
(08:29):
Gas tends to be more expensive than oil. But there's
a good rule of thumb that I heard about apparently
this is very well known in the industry, which is
that for every ten dollars a barrel of oil rises
in price, our gas prices will rise by twenty cents.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Wow. Okay, that's super helpful.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
So when this conflict started, I believe the price of
oil was around sixty dollars a barrel.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Yeah, sixty five bucks.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
As we're recording this, Stacy, you know, off the top
of your head, it's Wednesday, around twelve pm, March elevens.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Around eighty five bucks about, yes, so exactly.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
So we would expect a forty cent increase in the
cost per gallon, which is pretty close to what I
think when you asked me at the top of the
show was what the difference was is yeah about what
I said, I think.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Yeah, and prices have risen a little more than that,
which indicates that people think this conflict is going to
go on for a while.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
The thing that was crazy to me in the tape
we played at the top of this segment was the
people who are filling their tank up halfway full.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
It's a good.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Reminder that when gas gets expensive, that could be the
difference between yeah, like how you plan your day or
something like that.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
I talked to this man. He is the head of
petroleum analysis at gas Buddy, and gas Buddies this app
that people use that like finds the cheapest gas in
your area, and he told me that that active users
on the app is more than doubled in the last
one week because everybody is like gaming out where the
cheapest fuel is.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
As title as head of petroleum analysis.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
At gas Yeah, fatric don cool title. I mean that
is I know you want to put that, you want
to put that on a placard, on.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
A plaquer absolutely. But one of the things he said
was that this really highlights how because you gas is
so global, every economy needs it. Our entire economy for
better or for worse, really runs on oil. If we
run out of it, that is just really bad news.
And it all comes down to this tiny twelve mile
stretch that Iran has kind of seized control of, and
(10:29):
he's got them, got the whole global economy in this
choke hold.
Speaker 6 (10:32):
People overlook the specifics the nuances of infrastructure until something
like this happens and they realize that something that seems
to be guaranteed is no longer guaranteed. And without infrastructure,
oil is very much ad just in time commodity. We
consume so much of it, and now things we take
for granted, aka you know the straight of Horn Moves,
(10:55):
which is a massive choke point for the industry, oil
can't flow to the market.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Yeah, I mean, this is like the whole world's economy
comes down to this one twelve mile passageway.
Speaker 11 (11:04):
Right.
Speaker 4 (11:04):
The issue isn't so much that we're getting gas from Iran.
It's that if you create a choke point and you
limit a bunch of gas from getting to where it
needs to be, which is what's happening the straight up
Horn Moves, prices are going to go up, and that
means that American producers are going to be able to
command higher prices for their petroleum as well.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
And that's why the prices are what they are.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
I mean, we make enough gas and enough oil to
sustain ourselves. I believe this is more an issue of
oil companies being able to charge.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
The market rate.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Yeah, because supplies down twenty percent, demand is not. And
so obviously this you know, prices are rising and rising,
and now US oil companies are able to charge a
higher price. It's a global thing. Now. One of the
things that Trump could potentially do is make it harder
or impossible for oil companies to export oil.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Yeah, you point putting this out in your BusinessWeek story,
but I did not realize that until fairly recently, there
was a rule essentially saying that American oil producers could
not export it.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
It had to be for US.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
And it only changed, I believe what twenty fifteen, once
we started making just a total ton of oil because
of the shale boom.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Yes, and so I asked both Michelle and Patrick d'han,
you know, well, why doesn't President Trump just do this,
especially since the midterm elections are coming up, and that
is you know, this is such a big deal. And
they both said, like, the whole global economy would just
go into a terrible recession because we are one of
the biggest exporters in the world, the largest producer of
oil in the world, and if all of that supply
(12:39):
went offline, it would just be it would be really terrible. Also,
US oil companies would not want to do that.
Speaker 4 (12:44):
Yeah, because you'd be just saying every avron, Yeah, you
need to take a huge haircut in your profit. I
want to ask you, Stacy, if somehow we got to
cease fire tomorrow, yeah, and if the new Iatola and
Donald Trump met together, they arranged a compromise or whatever
straight of hormones opens oils back to normal, how long
(13:05):
would it take for our gas prices to go back
to where they were ten days ago.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
I asked Michelle Brohart about this, and she said, because
so it's twenty million barrels a day goes through the
strait of hormones. So every day that goes by that
those twenty million barrels can't get through. That is a backlog.
And so whence the ceasefire happens. When traffic goes back
through the strait and things normalize, there's still a big
backlog of demand and so places are going to have
(13:33):
to overproduce to sort of make up for this, and
she said it would take at least until the end
of the year.
Speaker 4 (13:40):
I have to ask how important our gas prices really
because there is a psychological question. It's this price that
we all notice, that we all see, it's a way
for anyone to measure inflation at any given time. It's
like better than the Wall Street Journal. But also it's
not the only thing we buy. It's probably not the
(14:00):
most important thing we buy.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
I asked this to all the people that I spoke
with for the article, and they all said the same thing,
which I actually was not expecting, which is they said,
gas is a huge part of the economy, right, it
goes into everything we do. It's going to bleed into
every product we buy because so much of it is
trucked and shipped across things like the person that Jasmin
spoke with who was spending five hundred dollars filling up
their truck. You know, is spread that out across the country.
(14:25):
It affects all the price.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Part of the price of food, for instance.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yes, but they all said that that the amount of
emotion and attention oil prices get is probably bigger than
the actual economic impact.
Speaker 6 (14:39):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Yeah, Max Chafkin, Stacy, I have a question for you. Yes,
how much money do you make?
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Stacy? That's a taboo question. I'm not going to answer that.
Speaker 6 (14:57):
Well.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
I've spent a lot of my career asking people this questions.
They're uncomfortable, right, I've had someone once asked me that
on Mike. It was Lizzie O'Leary actually at Oh my gosh,
that was like, I panicked, Did you do a voice?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
I did a voice?
Speaker 2 (15:11):
You did?
Speaker 3 (15:11):
You did?
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (15:14):
I think?
Speaker 2 (15:14):
I just I think I made a job.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
That's the only way to deal with it.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
It got it. You got to deflect. But it is
like such personal information. I of course, you know, we
both spent a lot of our careers asking people these questions,
from heads of companies to you know, every day people
work in regular jobs. But it is something of course
we're all curious about. It's a question we don't want
to answer, but.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
We do want to ask, right, or we want to know.
I want Most people don't want to ask. And that's
why the reason we're talking about this is because New
York Magazine did a big cover story that everyone is
talking about everyone in our world is talking about where
they just asked a lot of different people, Hey, how
much money do you make and what do you do
to make that money?
Speaker 2 (15:54):
And it's it's and they were anonymous, anonymous people from
all different jobs, careers, types of jobs in New York City.
Speaker 4 (16:02):
You got everything from the management consultant who is making
sixteen million dollars a year, to like healthcare workers who
are making you know, twenty or thirty thousand, dog walker's
door slossers, bristas, the person who helps get the lice
out of your kid's hair. Everyone is in there, and
we wanted to talk about this because it really gets
at a bunch of the big economic things that we
(16:24):
have been talking about in this show in particular. And
the thing that really has grabbed me is just the
nature of white collar work, because one of the big
areas of conversation around this story are the vast differences
between certain kind of white collar knowledge work type jobs
and others. There is a quote unquote best selling novelist
(16:47):
who reports that they're making forty nine thousand.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
Dollars last year.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
There is, as I said, a management consultant making sixteen million.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Dollars seventeen million, there's a sub there's.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
A sub stacker making like two one hundred and fifty
thousand dollars, and there is just this huge range. I
think it raised a lot of issues having to do
with economic inequality, inequality of wealth, and equality of income.
And we have Ben Steverman, who is a reporter at
Bloomberg BusinessWeek, he covers money and culture to kick the
tires on this story.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Welcome Ben. Thank you. Ben.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
You have been writing about this huge wealth gap that
is appearing in society. You in January wrote a story
where I think there's some there's data quota suggesting that
the wealth gap is the greatest has ever been since
the nineteen forties. You've seen this in your reporting and
it's in this story, and I wanted to ask you
(17:41):
it feels like it's not just a wealth gap between
again people who are like working class people and very
rich people.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
There's even this wealth gap between the rich. Yeah.
Speaker 10 (17:50):
I think that there's a lot of affluent people who
are really scared about the future right now and about
their jobs. I think it's sort of like a lack
of confidence in their ability to continue at the status
that they're.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
At because of AI.
Speaker 10 (18:05):
I think it's because of AI, but it's also because
either they are laid off, which is a good number
of people, but so many people know people who've been
laid off for a year or more.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
I certainly do. And we've entered this period.
Speaker 10 (18:19):
The last year was a very weak labor market, so
it's this very fraught time where at least right now,
you have the fears, these sort of abstract, mostly abstract
fears about AI because there's not that many people being
automated yet. And then you have a precarious economy with
the job market being very weak, and you have cost
(18:40):
of living has gone up, so a lot of the
things people used to love to buy are a lot
more expensive.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
When you were looking at this article and looking at
all the salaries that people made, what stood out to you.
Speaker 10 (18:52):
I mean, one of the obvious things is that the
value of the work that the person does almost has
no correlation whatsoever how much they.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Make Influencer three hundred and twenty that much.
Speaker 10 (19:03):
I mean the heartbreaking ones you mentioned the daycare worker,
but also the care worker for elderly people, for like
terminally ill people like that is really hard work. That's
I can't really can't imagine harder work. Yeah, and they're
they're like on the lowest end of the scale, and
this I'm not sure where that is, twenty three thousand dollars.
(19:24):
Those are poverty wages. And the person described in the
description like having to do sort of all night, like
work all night and not get paid for it because
there's a there's a limit and how much overtime they
could they could work, but they felt like they needed
to because they needed to take care of this person
who was, you know, really in tough straits. So the
other thing I noticed looking at this is how many
(19:46):
people they were able to find in New York.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
And I think this is a big city phenomenon.
Speaker 10 (19:51):
I don't know that this is a national or international trend,
but so many people have sort of put together a
bunch of streams of income, Like.
Speaker 4 (20:00):
Yeah, you got the barista slash personal assistant, slash nanny,
slash actor, slash writer, slash producer as the ultimate example.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yes, it was pulling down from all those jobs sixty
three thousand bucks a year.
Speaker 10 (20:11):
Let's hope that they're young and they're still figuring it
out and they're looking for a niche and eventually they
will find one and one of those avenues will branch
out into something really profitable over the long term. But
the way you build wealth in your life is to
have a consistent income over time, and these things don't
seem consistent. They seem very much like they could be
(20:33):
like one off things. You know, a little contract here,
a little background work as an actor there. You know,
like I think that that putting those portfolio jobs as
I think that one of the terms out that's out
there together, these side hustles, it just seems like a
lot of work.
Speaker 4 (20:48):
I Mean, the thing that struck me is just how
many of those of these fields you mentioned AI, Ben,
how many of them are buffeted by technology. So where
where it's not necessarily AI, maybe there's a little bit
of AI coming into play. But you have a screenwriter
who's kind of complaining that Netflix plays lower rates than
they used to make in the era of big TV.
(21:09):
There's a technology phenomenon there. You have the Uber Eats,
Slash Door Dash guy who is complaining about how much
the apps are squeezing him.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
And maybe this is why there's so much.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
Anxiety around AI, even though we're not actually seeing a
lot of AI in the actual data is that it's
coming on top of this sense of a bunch of
tech platforms just being able to exercise like a lot
of power over a bunch of different industries in ways
that feel new.
Speaker 10 (21:38):
So I'm going to talk about the early nineties if
you don't mind, because I was thinking a lot this
week as we were in a Gulf war and the economy,
the job support came out and it was pretty weak.
It really reminded me of the early nineties, which I
was a kid then, but my dad worked in the
insurance industry, and insurance in Street in that recession in
(22:01):
the early nineties was having a huge cutbacks. I think
largely because of technology. Insurance is such a paperwork intensive
business and you know, you didn't need those layers of
secretaries and clerks that you used to. And I think
we're going through another phase of anxiety about this stuff.
(22:23):
And back then we you know, Michael Moore wrote a
book Downsize This. But something changed actually back then that
sort of changed the relationship of like corporations with their workers.
There was this idea that if you were working at
a big white collar corporation, you would have a job
for life, and like we've lost that idea for it
(22:44):
for like and and so you just putting your time
and then you retire and and the only people who
get that now are public secutor workers who were hit
really hard last year by these doge cuts when the
Trump administration came in.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
So now it feels like nowhere is safe. There's no
safe harbor.
Speaker 10 (23:05):
And getting back to what you were saying, like, there's
just so much precarity in all these income streams and
all these jobs that there wasn't there before.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
I do think what's new that's happening right now is
the precarity in what we call like the white collar workforce.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
In this sense of like being a software.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
Engineer or a writer, or a marketer or a There
are a lot of jobs that for most of our
lifetimes have been seen as secure. And even at the
very front end of the conversation around AI, what you
would hear is these long haul truckers, they're the ones
who are going to be disruptive first, and we actually
look at it, I think they're going to be like
the last ones to be disrupted because even though yeah,
(23:48):
like maybe you can make a teacher computer drive a
truck you know, long haul, A single person driving a
long haul truck is pretty efficient.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
There's safety risks and so on.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
The salaries for long haul truckers are going up, they're
not going down.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
But I think you have a lot.
Speaker 4 (24:01):
Of people in what felt like very very secure white
collar jobs who now for some of the reasons you're
talking about, and also for like technology reasons, feel les secure,
including course journalists, which is probably one of the reasons
this conversation is being amplified so much, like maybe it
looms larger in our world than it looms in other worlds.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
I'm wondering when you think this started, Like I'm wondering, like,
there's obviously this iteration that Max was talking about, and
you were referring to the early nineties, the inequality situation,
where in now that I think people are getting very
concerned about, where are the roots of it? Is it
more recent or do you see this as going all
the way back to the nineties.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
I see this is going back to the eighties and nineties. Wow.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Yeah, Okay.
Speaker 10 (24:41):
I think in the nineteen eighties the stock market soared
and so much of the inequality that we're talking about
here is sort of there's sort of in terms of
wealth inequality, there's sort of a seesaw between incomes for
middle income folk, and like those have been they've been okay,
(25:03):
but they've been pretty stagnant and they haven't kept up
with stock market games by any means. And then home prices,
so home prices actually did go up quite a bit
in the twenty tens, and that actually stopped the rise
in inequality for a little while because a lot of
middle class people were sitting on some home wealth. Well,
home prices have stagnated and the stock market keeps going up,
(25:26):
and a lot of those benefits are going to the
top point one percent or to people who service the
top one percent, like or top point one percent or point. Oh,
there's a there's a personal chef in here that was
making I think a quarter of a million, ye.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
Yeah, one hundred a dog walker making one hundred k
two which or not like over ninety thousand, which again,
like I think a lot of these jobs, the cause
of living in New York is kind of is higher
than it is. The minimum wage is higher. Some of
these jobs look better paid than they actually are. But
even that that dog walker kind of goes to your
point that's somebody who's servicing people with huge amounts of money,
(26:03):
even if he's obviously much less paid.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
Than the the personal chef and personal chef.
Speaker 4 (26:08):
Yeah, there's also the seventy five thousand dollars a year
life lady, which is you know, I don't know if
you all know about this, but like, if you have kids,
the life scares are a thing and if if things
really get bad, you got to call in a life professional.
And I read this and thought that, like she needs
to charge more money like this is this should be
an even more lucrative career. Then I just want to
(26:30):
circle back to the point you just made about stock
wealth and home wealth. There was a quote in the
story I mentioned somebody saying essentially there's a race between
the stock market the housing market, and the stock market's
been you know, doing a million times better or not
a million times better, but it's substantially.
Speaker 9 (26:45):
Better, maybe actually a million about.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
But is that like how big a piece of the
wealth picture is that? Because I would have said before
reading that, I would have said that's not that important,
because most people don't own a lot of stock, and
that things like salary and so on would be the
real drivers of wealth and of a sense of inequality,
but maybe that's not true.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Well, the really.
Speaker 10 (27:13):
Important concept for not to explain this to you, but
very important concept is the difference between income and wealth, right,
and income is more broadly distributed than wealth.
Speaker 3 (27:24):
But one of the things about.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
Wealth is like the cumulative total of your assets like house, car,
coin collection exactly, and then income is just like your way.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
To see coin collection. Say I actually do have.
Speaker 10 (27:41):
Yes, right, So the bottom fifty percent or even bottom
sixty percent is saving very little money every year, so
they're not even irrelevant when you're talking about wealth inequality.
They don't have they don't really have any net worth,
so they're irrelevant to this. A lot of the people
that New York Magazine is talking about are probably not
(28:02):
saving anything. And I think that that, in some ways
is the big distinction in the economy between people who've
been able to save put some money into a home
or socks or other investments, and the people who can't.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
And that when people.
Speaker 10 (28:18):
Talk about the K shaped economy and talk about how
there's sort of too diverging paths, a lot of that
just is really between people who've been able to save
substantial assets and people who really can't.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
We're gonna have to wrap up so Stacey can start
working on the probably very complicated tax return involving her
coin fille. I don't know if you have to mark
those to market or what. Yeah, but I just want
to share two things. Like one is my favorite job
on this list. I don't know if you all have favorites. Oh,
tugboat chief engineer. This is a person in New York
City who drives a tugboat in the harbor. And this
(28:52):
job he's making one hundred and forty five thousand dollars
a year. Okay and okay, sounds pretty good. You're driving
the boat, but it is like fourteen days on the
boat straight, so you got to really love the waterways.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
I guess you can't get off the boat.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
I don't think you get off unclear, but no, don't you.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
I mean how long you can't tug something for fourteen
Where are you? Where are you taking these boats?
Speaker 4 (29:19):
Oh? Well, so they have to We probably should cut
this for the podcast, but you know, they need someone
to who knows the ins and outs of the harbor.
They have to take them in and out of the
harbor because people who don't know.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
The can't they just take a break, like just maybe
they don't jump on and brab like a slice.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
No tugboat enthusiasts.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
If you know everybody's also, if you tell.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Us how much you earn, we're happy to keep your
name anonymous.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
All right, any alternative career possibilities here for you? All
that you considered you read this list.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
My my sort of fantasy side hustle has always been barista.
I love coffee, I like talking to people. I like
coffee shops. I just felt like that would be a
good a good fit for me. But it is sixty
three thousand dollars a year, which is that's that's tough
to make it in New York City. So I would
have to be a barista in somewhere less expensive. I'll
(30:16):
have to live that dream later.
Speaker 10 (30:18):
I noticed on the cover of the magazine they have
jazz singer seventeen.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Are you a singer?
Speaker 10 (30:23):
No, I'm not, but in another life I would, Yeah so,
but I don't see jazz singer in the description, So
I want, I really want to know about that person.
Speaker 4 (30:35):
All right, Ben, you should stick around. We're going to
do the underrated stories, and at least one of these
stories maybe both has something for you.
Speaker 9 (30:42):
Okay, Oh, definitely mine does, okay, Stacy, Yeah, time for
underrated stories.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
I've heard some little.
Speaker 4 (30:56):
Bits and pieces about this one, but I've actually kept
my brain. Christine, I appreciate that I don't know what
this is really about it.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
I don't think Ben knows either.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
You're really excited, so I feel so. A couple of
weeks ago, the CEO of McDonald's on his social media feed, uh,
did a tasting of this new burger, the Big archburger
that McDonald's is launching. And he's not a super charismatic person,
(31:29):
and the video is strange.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Chris k here with you've heard about it here it
is the Big Arch, So here we go.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
First. Holy cow, God, that is a big burger. I
don't even know how to attack it got so much
to it.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Oh, there's also some crispy onions on here as well,
to see those kind of coming out, all right, the
moment of truth. That is so good. That's a big
bite for a big arc. It's distinctively McDonald's. Only McDonald's
could do this type of burger. But it also is
(32:09):
unlike anything else on our menu. It's a delicious product
all right.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
So wait, Ben, I think, just for people who haven't
seen this video, could you just explain why.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
We're laughing at this.
Speaker 10 (32:20):
I guess he's wearing like a sweater, sort of a
v NEX sweater, and he just looks very corporate.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
I guess it is.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
The most corporate video you possibly imagine it is. It
is like a robot.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
CEO is an excellent product.
Speaker 10 (32:38):
Yeah, there's like beige walls behind it, like a really
boring office.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
It looks like his first ever encounter with Hamburger looks
strange because he works at McDonald's.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
He has been getting absolutely trolled for a few reasons,
one calling the burger a product. The other thing when
he's just like I don't know how I'm going to
attack this is so big, And the other one is
the tiny, tiny bite he takes. And then of course
all the CEOs are responding, Like the Burger King CEO
responded with this thing where he's sort of like casual.
(33:12):
He's in like a vest and he takes like this big,
sort of manly bite and he's like I need a napkin,
and like all of the CEOs are now responding with
their own videos. Just been a kind of a disaster
for McDonald's, which did try to respond with a social
media post saying, try our product.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
With the big art. It was cute.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
But anyway, it's been very very interesting to see this
all lad.
Speaker 4 (33:34):
I feel like the takeaway here and like we've been
living this for twenty years, is that it is very
hard for big companies to make like social media videos
and they're just a lot of I can see what
they were trying to do, but it's gone all wrong
to me.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
It's like the problem of the this is the K
shaped economy in a social media video, because this is
like a guy who's way at the top of the
K to the point where no one tells him things
like you should not call it's a product. You should
not wear the sweater vest, Oh yeah, you should, you know.
Like he's spin it so at the top of the key,
he's like two insulated and then his video is meant
for the whole K and it's not okay.
Speaker 4 (34:12):
Okay, I have a thought. This is like an Elon
Musk problem.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Okay.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
Elon Musk has gotten very rich by basically being himself,
and he like he tweets what he's thinking. Donald Trump too,
there's this new trend among CEOs, which is you just.
Speaker 3 (34:26):
Tweet whatever's on your mind.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
You don't care, just yourself and like some people, authenticity
not everybody.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
Authenticity doesn't work for everybody. Some people are off trying to.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Be I don't think authentic at work is a good idea,
that's my hot take. I think being inauthentic at work
is better.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
You went to business school or whatever, and you've been
calling things products for whatever twenty years. Maybe you need
to try to channel a different person, is my suggestion.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Yes, a person who eats, who calls a hamburger a
instead of a product.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Looks like he's actually been inside of McDonald's.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
And eating the hamburger before.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
All, Right on my underrated story. Are you ready? Yes?
I am okay.
Speaker 6 (35:10):
This is a.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Headline from the Wall Street Journal from March eleventh.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
As we record this today, we have been talking about
this topic, so the headline won't come as a surprise.
Speaker 3 (35:19):
But I think it's interesting here.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
It is AI isn't lightning workloads, it's making them more intense,
and it's basically citing surveys an analysis of workers what
they're doing, showing essentially that the people who are using
AI are working even harder than they were working before
they were using AI, partly because they're more productive, but basically,
(35:43):
if you're really using AI, it is hard.
Speaker 10 (35:46):
And they're probably like the people who use the cloud
code and they tweet about it, they're like, oh, I
created an app. I stayed up all night and like
I created it. They're not getting any sleep. They're just
constantly using cloud code like.
Speaker 4 (35:59):
You have to, and even harder now that AI is here,
which seems to be like the opposite of what this
was supposed to do.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
It was supposed to make things easier. I thought, I
feel like this.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Is always the trap of technological advancements that like they
come and they're like, You're like, wow, this makes X
so much easier, and then it's not like you use
that saved time to like chill out and you know,
go walk in the park. No, you use that extra
time to do more work.
Speaker 4 (36:25):
I wanted to bring this up because Gary Tan, who
is an entrepreneur, he runs Why Commoner.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
I'm sure Ben.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Ben's combinators like the Big Yeah, Ben's.
Speaker 4 (36:34):
Probably come across from kid Star, but anyway, he tweeted
a couple of days companies, I'm giving up drinking because
of Claude code. I need my brain to be maximumly
pristine so I can sling ten k oc lines of
code to day.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
See this is also this is as out of touch
as with the McDonald's CEO trying that burger my brain pristine?
Who talks like that?
Speaker 3 (36:58):
I think it's a bit on a ray.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
I don't think it's a bit. I don't know. These guys,
they just need people need like a court jester. But right,
don't you think these guys need a court That needs
to be a new job on the New York Magazine
list is court jester?
Speaker 3 (37:16):
Somebody who can like somebody make fun of them to
their face.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
Someone would make fun of these people to their faces. Yeah,
I actually think you kind of kill it as a court.
Speaker 3 (37:26):
Jester, Ben Stevenman, thanks for being here. You're welcome, Thanks
for having me. The show is produced by Jasmine J. T.
Speaker 4 (37:39):
Green and Stacy Wong. Mangus Henderson is our supervising producer.
Sam Rogan handles engineering, and Dave Purcell fact checks. Special
thanks to Jeff Muscus, Julia Rubin, and Marling. If you
have a minute, please rate and review the show and
mean a lot to us. If you have a story
that should be our business.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Would you want to know how much money we make?
Speaker 4 (37:56):
Email us everybody at bloom asking It's everybody with an
US at Bloomberg dot net and we will answer your question,
but probably not the solar one.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next week.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Hey Stacey, Max Chafkin, I have a question for you.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Okay, go ahead.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
You are a car owner.
Speaker 3 (00:16):
I am a motorist.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Yes, okay, this week have you filled up your gas tank?
Speaker 4 (00:21):
I filled up my gas this weekend and it was
like three dollars and twenty cents a gallon something like
that which I had filled up maybe I don't know,
ten days before, and I think it was less than
two ninety. It was like two eighty nine or something. Acgawan,
so like a thirty cent per gallon premium.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It hurt.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
See. This is such an interesting conversation for so many reasons,
not only because you have seen the price of gas increase,
which people have been seeing all across the country. In fact,
the price of gas went from a US average of
around two dollars and ninety five cents a gallon to
over three dollars and fifty cents a gallon, but also
because you remember the price of it more than almost
(01:03):
any other price in our economy. Gas prices they really
stick with us, and of course since the US attack
on Iran, Brent Krude, which is kind of the pricing
standard that people talk about around the world has risen
from around sixty five dollars a barrel to almost one
hundred and twenty dollars a barrel at one point. It's
come down, but it is very volatile situation, and you
(01:27):
know this affects countries all over the world, companies all
over the world, and people like you trying to figure
out how much gas is going to cost if you're
planning a trip for your family. Max, We're going to
have a longer conversation about all this, but today on
the show, what the rising prices of oil means for you?
(01:49):
You the listener, and you MaTx Chafkin and Stacy.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
I have a question for you, okay, is with all
of the layoffs and the stories about AI economic uncertainty,
what is knowledge work? This feels very deep it What
is knowledge?
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I mean, excellent question. It is work that one can
do when one is extremely physically out of shape. That's
my definition.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
We have Bloomberg reporter Ben Steverman, who is in very
good shape but also very knowledgeable, to join us for
this topic.
Speaker 2 (02:23):
This is Everybody's business from Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Stacey Mannix.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
Smith, I'm Max Schafkins. Stay with US for a deeper
dive into the true cost of oil in the US.
Speaker 5 (02:39):
We're here at a mobile gas station and like the
Crown Heights betside border in Brooklyn. Can you tell me
what brings you here?
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Much?
Speaker 3 (02:47):
You guess it's really ridiculous.
Speaker 5 (02:50):
Do you remember how much things used to be when
I bone it was.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Sixty cent back end of the day is thirty years ago,
it was.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
That here in New York?
Speaker 6 (02:58):
Yes, oh my god.
Speaker 5 (03:00):
How much you plan to spend today at the power?
Speaker 7 (03:03):
Well today it's looking a little bit different because yesterday
was at three fifteen.
Speaker 8 (03:08):
Now all I saw in today is at three twenty nine.
Speaker 7 (03:11):
So the price is that like drastically going up it was.
Speaker 8 (03:14):
It used to be too fifty three for a regular
before I used to spend fifteen. Now probably I'm gonna
have to spend twenty today to put out like half
of the tank so I can start working.
Speaker 5 (03:26):
How much did you end up filling your truck up
with today?
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Well, half of my tank because you're leaving the class.
Speaker 7 (03:32):
So I'm putting about three five dozend gas just to
move around.
Speaker 9 (03:36):
I'm using diesel.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
It's five dollars, oh my god.
Speaker 8 (03:39):
Yes, And I'm put in one hundred gallon, it's five
hundred dollars.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
Five hundred dollars every day, Yes, every day, every day?
How often do you fill up?
Speaker 10 (03:48):
Every day?
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Everything? Day? Every day, every day?
Speaker 7 (03:51):
Because what I did, what it is is that I
I manage half a tank, so I make a certain
amount of money with a a tank. So as soon
as I finished a half a tank and I come
and refiel.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I think they could do better on the gas. When
you say who can do better?
Speaker 4 (04:07):
Who do you mean? Oh? What?
Speaker 5 (04:09):
President? A lot of this is happening due to like
the current war, Like is that something you've been following
as far as like that in prices of oil and things, Well,
I was not.
Speaker 7 (04:16):
Even interested in that situation. Better now that I see
that effects, I'm looking forward to see what's going on
because it's definitely hitting affecting the packast.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
That is producer Jasmine JT. Green at a gas station
in Brooklyn here in New York, where the average price
of gas right now is three dollars and forty eight
cents a gallon, which is a little bit lower than
it is in a lot of the country.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
One of the things that I think has been so
strange to watch is just a couple of weeks ago,
President Trump was at the State of Union and Young address.
Speaker 3 (04:48):
We talked about the State of the Union.
Speaker 4 (04:49):
I can't remember if we mentioned this or not, but
one of the things he was touting was he's got
you know, gas prices are low. It's a thing people
care about it. It actually felt like one of his
best moments in that speech.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Yeah, he talked about the price of gas in Iowa
at a station in Iowa being about a dollar eighty
a gallon. Right now, since the attack, the average price
of gas in Iowa three dollars and twenty cents a gallon.
So I looked into this for an article in BusinessWeek,
and this is just it's a really interesting situation for
a lot of reasons because of exactly what you said.
(05:24):
This was really the breakout star of Trump's first year
in office, was inflation being pretty under control, energy prices
coming down all across the country. This was just a
big win for the Trump administration. And you know we're
going into the midterms, these are going to be tight elections.
We've talked about this on the show. And doing something
(05:44):
that makes not only the price of gas go up,
which people are very sensitive to. But you know, gas
goes into everything.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
It's not just something goes into everything. It's something that
people notice. I was thinking back to when I was
just learning to drive in like nineteen ninety seven or
ninety eight, Like I remember eighty nine cents one gas
station in Jersey. You could go, you could guess for
eighty nine cents, And it's like everybody remembers the price
of gas time everywhere.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
We don't interact with many prices like the price of gas.
It's something people really connect with. They remember their emotional
about it. I talked with Michelle Brohard. She is the
head of policy and geopolitical risk at Keupler, and she
looks at energy prices. She had all of her spreadsheets out,
and she told me that she basically concluded when she
was looking at all this data that there was no
(06:33):
way that President Trump would attack Iran for exactly this reason.
Speaker 11 (06:39):
The question on high prices is how long will that
straight be closed? Presumably Trump will cry uncle if prices
get too high. Right, is an entire economic agenda rests
on low energy prices.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
So this is why I thought there's just no way
he would.
Speaker 4 (06:58):
Do the thing that I wanted to talk about today
is that relationship between what happens with the oil markets
and what we pay at the pump, because like, gas
and oil are not the same thing. I think the
first thing we got to do is just like explain
what is gas and how does it relate to the
black stuff that comes out of the ground.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
I mean, it's a great question. One of the things
that people have asked me about a lot recently is like,
wait a minute. I mean, the US is the largest
oil producer in the world, so why are we paying
these higher prices?
Speaker 9 (07:30):
Right?
Speaker 2 (07:30):
I mean the strait that Michelle was talking about, the
Strait of Horn Mouz, where twenty percent of the world's
oil goes through this little twelve mile passageway between the
Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. Nicely done, thank you,
But you know, we have a ton of oil here.
But our gas companies are oil companies basically trade on
(07:52):
the global market, and so oil is sort of just
the commodity, right. It's like if you look at something
like cotton, it's the cotton plants or is this is
oil the raw product? And then gas is what it
gets refined into gasoline.
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yes, petrol for those.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Gas, and it gets refined into different levels. Right, there's
jet fuel at the very top that is the purest
and the most expensive, and then there's like diesel, and
you know, there's also the really low grade stuff that
gets used for like asphalt and things like that. But
it all comes from oil. And so there is a
relationship between oil and gas, but it's not one to one.
(08:29):
Gas tends to be more expensive than oil. But there's
a good rule of thumb that I heard about apparently
this is very well known in the industry, which is
that for every ten dollars a barrel of oil rises
in price, our gas prices will rise by twenty cents.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Wow. Okay, that's super helpful.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
So when this conflict started, I believe the price of
oil was around sixty dollars a barrel.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
Yeah, sixty five bucks.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
As we're recording this, Stacy, you know, off the top
of your head, it's Wednesday, around twelve pm, March elevens.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Around eighty five bucks about, yes, so exactly.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
So we would expect a forty cent increase in the
cost per gallon, which is pretty close to what I
think when you asked me at the top of the
show was what the difference was is yeah about what
I said, I think.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Yeah, and prices have risen a little more than that,
which indicates that people think this conflict is going to
go on for a while.
Speaker 4 (09:20):
The thing that was crazy to me in the tape
we played at the top of this segment was the
people who are filling their tank up halfway full.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
It's a good.
Speaker 4 (09:27):
Reminder that when gas gets expensive, that could be the
difference between yeah, like how you plan your day or
something like that.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
I talked to this man. He is the head of
petroleum analysis at gas Buddy, and gas Buddies this app
that people use that like finds the cheapest gas in
your area, and he told me that that active users
on the app is more than doubled in the last
one week because everybody is like gaming out where the
cheapest fuel is.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
As title as head of petroleum analysis.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
At gas Yeah, fatric don cool title. I mean that
is I know you want to put that, you want
to put that on a placard, on.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
A plaquer absolutely. But one of the things he said
was that this really highlights how because you gas is
so global, every economy needs it. Our entire economy for
better or for worse, really runs on oil. If we
run out of it, that is just really bad news.
And it all comes down to this tiny twelve mile
stretch that Iran has kind of seized control of, and
(10:29):
he's got them, got the whole global economy in this
choke hold.
Speaker 6 (10:32):
People overlook the specifics the nuances of infrastructure until something
like this happens and they realize that something that seems
to be guaranteed is no longer guaranteed. And without infrastructure,
oil is very much ad just in time commodity. We
consume so much of it, and now things we take
for granted, aka you know the straight of Horn Moves,
(10:55):
which is a massive choke point for the industry, oil
can't flow to the market.
Speaker 2 (10:59):
Yeah, I mean, this is like the whole world's economy
comes down to this one twelve mile passageway.
Speaker 11 (11:04):
Right.
Speaker 4 (11:04):
The issue isn't so much that we're getting gas from Iran.
It's that if you create a choke point and you
limit a bunch of gas from getting to where it
needs to be, which is what's happening the straight up
Horn Moves, prices are going to go up, and that
means that American producers are going to be able to
command higher prices for their petroleum as well.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
And that's why the prices are what they are.
Speaker 4 (11:27):
I mean, we make enough gas and enough oil to
sustain ourselves. I believe this is more an issue of
oil companies being able to charge.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
The market rate.
Speaker 2 (11:37):
Yeah, because supplies down twenty percent, demand is not. And
so obviously this you know, prices are rising and rising,
and now US oil companies are able to charge a
higher price. It's a global thing. Now. One of the
things that Trump could potentially do is make it harder
or impossible for oil companies to export oil.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
Yeah, you point putting this out in your BusinessWeek story,
but I did not realize that until fairly recently, there
was a rule essentially saying that American oil producers could
not export it.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
It had to be for US.
Speaker 4 (12:10):
And it only changed, I believe what twenty fifteen, once
we started making just a total ton of oil because
of the shale boom.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
Yes, and so I asked both Michelle and Patrick d'han,
you know, well, why doesn't President Trump just do this,
especially since the midterm elections are coming up, and that
is you know, this is such a big deal. And
they both said, like, the whole global economy would just
go into a terrible recession because we are one of
the biggest exporters in the world, the largest producer of
oil in the world, and if all of that supply
(12:39):
went offline, it would just be it would be really terrible. Also,
US oil companies would not want to do that.
Speaker 4 (12:44):
Yeah, because you'd be just saying every avron, Yeah, you
need to take a huge haircut in your profit. I
want to ask you, Stacy, if somehow we got to
cease fire tomorrow, yeah, and if the new Iatola and
Donald Trump met together, they arranged a compromise or whatever
straight of hormones opens oils back to normal, how long
(13:05):
would it take for our gas prices to go back
to where they were ten days ago.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
I asked Michelle Brohart about this, and she said, because
so it's twenty million barrels a day goes through the
strait of hormones. So every day that goes by that
those twenty million barrels can't get through. That is a backlog.
And so whence the ceasefire happens. When traffic goes back
through the strait and things normalize, there's still a big
backlog of demand and so places are going to have
(13:33):
to overproduce to sort of make up for this, and
she said it would take at least until the end
of the year.
Speaker 4 (13:40):
I have to ask how important our gas prices really
because there is a psychological question. It's this price that
we all notice, that we all see, it's a way
for anyone to measure inflation at any given time. It's
like better than the Wall Street Journal. But also it's
not the only thing we buy. It's probably not the
(14:00):
most important thing we buy.
Speaker 2 (14:02):
I asked this to all the people that I spoke
with for the article, and they all said the same thing,
which I actually was not expecting, which is they said,
gas is a huge part of the economy, right, it
goes into everything we do. It's going to bleed into
every product we buy because so much of it is
trucked and shipped across things like the person that Jasmin
spoke with who was spending five hundred dollars filling up
their truck. You know, is spread that out across the country.
(14:25):
It affects all the price.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Part of the price of food, for instance.
Speaker 2 (14:27):
Yes, but they all said that that the amount of
emotion and attention oil prices get is probably bigger than
the actual economic impact.
Speaker 6 (14:39):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Yeah, Max Chafkin, Stacy, I have a question for you. Yes,
how much money do you make?
Speaker 3 (14:53):
Stacy? That's a taboo question. I'm not going to answer that.
Speaker 6 (14:57):
Well.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
I've spent a lot of my career asking people this questions.
They're uncomfortable, right, I've had someone once asked me that
on Mike. It was Lizzie O'Leary actually at Oh my gosh,
that was like, I panicked, Did you do a voice?
Speaker 3 (15:10):
I did a voice?
Speaker 2 (15:11):
You did?
Speaker 3 (15:11):
You did?
Speaker 2 (15:13):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (15:14):
I think?
Speaker 2 (15:14):
I just I think I made a job.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
That's the only way to deal with it.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
It got it. You got to deflect. But it is
like such personal information. I of course, you know, we
both spent a lot of our careers asking people these questions,
from heads of companies to you know, every day people
work in regular jobs. But it is something of course
we're all curious about. It's a question we don't want
to answer, but.
Speaker 4 (15:35):
We do want to ask, right, or we want to know.
I want Most people don't want to ask. And that's
why the reason we're talking about this is because New
York Magazine did a big cover story that everyone is
talking about everyone in our world is talking about where
they just asked a lot of different people, Hey, how
much money do you make and what do you do
to make that money?
Speaker 2 (15:54):
And it's it's and they were anonymous, anonymous people from
all different jobs, careers, types of jobs in New York City.
Speaker 4 (16:02):
You got everything from the management consultant who is making
sixteen million dollars a year, to like healthcare workers who
are making you know, twenty or thirty thousand, dog walker's
door slossers, bristas, the person who helps get the lice
out of your kid's hair. Everyone is in there, and
we wanted to talk about this because it really gets
at a bunch of the big economic things that we
(16:24):
have been talking about in this show in particular. And
the thing that really has grabbed me is just the
nature of white collar work, because one of the big
areas of conversation around this story are the vast differences
between certain kind of white collar knowledge work type jobs
and others. There is a quote unquote best selling novelist
(16:47):
who reports that they're making forty nine thousand.
Speaker 3 (16:50):
Dollars last year.
Speaker 4 (16:52):
There is, as I said, a management consultant making sixteen million.
Speaker 2 (16:55):
Dollars seventeen million, there's a sub there's.
Speaker 4 (16:58):
A sub stacker making like two one hundred and fifty
thousand dollars, and there is just this huge range. I
think it raised a lot of issues having to do
with economic inequality, inequality of wealth, and equality of income.
And we have Ben Steverman, who is a reporter at
Bloomberg BusinessWeek, he covers money and culture to kick the
tires on this story.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Welcome Ben. Thank you. Ben.
Speaker 4 (17:19):
You have been writing about this huge wealth gap that
is appearing in society. You in January wrote a story
where I think there's some there's data quota suggesting that
the wealth gap is the greatest has ever been since
the nineteen forties. You've seen this in your reporting and
it's in this story, and I wanted to ask you
(17:41):
it feels like it's not just a wealth gap between
again people who are like working class people and very
rich people.
Speaker 3 (17:47):
There's even this wealth gap between the rich. Yeah.
Speaker 10 (17:50):
I think that there's a lot of affluent people who
are really scared about the future right now and about
their jobs. I think it's sort of like a lack
of confidence in their ability to continue at the status
that they're.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
At because of AI.
Speaker 10 (18:05):
I think it's because of AI, but it's also because
either they are laid off, which is a good number
of people, but so many people know people who've been
laid off for a year or more.
Speaker 3 (18:16):
I certainly do. And we've entered this period.
Speaker 10 (18:19):
The last year was a very weak labor market, so
it's this very fraught time where at least right now,
you have the fears, these sort of abstract, mostly abstract
fears about AI because there's not that many people being
automated yet. And then you have a precarious economy with
the job market being very weak, and you have cost
(18:40):
of living has gone up, so a lot of the
things people used to love to buy are a lot
more expensive.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
When you were looking at this article and looking at
all the salaries that people made, what stood out to you.
Speaker 10 (18:52):
I mean, one of the obvious things is that the
value of the work that the person does almost has
no correlation whatsoever how much they.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
Make Influencer three hundred and twenty that much.
Speaker 10 (19:03):
I mean the heartbreaking ones you mentioned the daycare worker,
but also the care worker for elderly people, for like
terminally ill people like that is really hard work. That's
I can't really can't imagine harder work. Yeah, and they're
they're like on the lowest end of the scale, and
this I'm not sure where that is, twenty three thousand dollars.
(19:24):
Those are poverty wages. And the person described in the
description like having to do sort of all night, like
work all night and not get paid for it because
there's a there's a limit and how much overtime they
could they could work, but they felt like they needed
to because they needed to take care of this person
who was, you know, really in tough straits. So the
other thing I noticed looking at this is how many
(19:46):
people they were able to find in New York.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
And I think this is a big city phenomenon.
Speaker 10 (19:51):
I don't know that this is a national or international trend,
but so many people have sort of put together a
bunch of streams of income, Like.
Speaker 4 (20:00):
Yeah, you got the barista slash personal assistant, slash nanny,
slash actor, slash writer, slash producer as the ultimate example.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Yes, it was pulling down from all those jobs sixty
three thousand bucks a year.
Speaker 10 (20:11):
Let's hope that they're young and they're still figuring it
out and they're looking for a niche and eventually they
will find one and one of those avenues will branch
out into something really profitable over the long term. But
the way you build wealth in your life is to
have a consistent income over time, and these things don't
seem consistent. They seem very much like they could be
(20:33):
like one off things. You know, a little contract here,
a little background work as an actor there. You know,
like I think that that putting those portfolio jobs as
I think that one of the terms out that's out
there together, these side hustles, it just seems like a
lot of work.
Speaker 4 (20:48):
I Mean, the thing that struck me is just how
many of those of these fields you mentioned AI, Ben,
how many of them are buffeted by technology. So where
where it's not necessarily AI, maybe there's a little bit
of AI coming into play. But you have a screenwriter
who's kind of complaining that Netflix plays lower rates than
they used to make in the era of big TV.
(21:09):
There's a technology phenomenon there. You have the Uber Eats,
Slash Door Dash guy who is complaining about how much
the apps are squeezing him.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
And maybe this is why there's so much.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
Anxiety around AI, even though we're not actually seeing a
lot of AI in the actual data is that it's
coming on top of this sense of a bunch of
tech platforms just being able to exercise like a lot
of power over a bunch of different industries in ways
that feel new.
Speaker 10 (21:38):
So I'm going to talk about the early nineties if
you don't mind, because I was thinking a lot this
week as we were in a Gulf war and the economy,
the job support came out and it was pretty weak.
It really reminded me of the early nineties, which I
was a kid then, but my dad worked in the
insurance industry, and insurance in Street in that recession in
(22:01):
the early nineties was having a huge cutbacks. I think
largely because of technology. Insurance is such a paperwork intensive
business and you know, you didn't need those layers of
secretaries and clerks that you used to. And I think
we're going through another phase of anxiety about this stuff.
(22:23):
And back then we you know, Michael Moore wrote a
book Downsize This. But something changed actually back then that
sort of changed the relationship of like corporations with their workers.
There was this idea that if you were working at
a big white collar corporation, you would have a job
for life, and like we've lost that idea for it
(22:44):
for like and and so you just putting your time
and then you retire and and the only people who
get that now are public secutor workers who were hit
really hard last year by these doge cuts when the
Trump administration came in.
Speaker 3 (23:00):
So now it feels like nowhere is safe. There's no
safe harbor.
Speaker 10 (23:05):
And getting back to what you were saying, like, there's
just so much precarity in all these income streams and
all these jobs that there wasn't there before.
Speaker 4 (23:13):
I do think what's new that's happening right now is
the precarity in what we call like the white collar workforce.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
In this sense of like being a software.
Speaker 4 (23:24):
Engineer or a writer, or a marketer or a There
are a lot of jobs that for most of our
lifetimes have been seen as secure. And even at the
very front end of the conversation around AI, what you
would hear is these long haul truckers, they're the ones
who are going to be disruptive first, and we actually
look at it, I think they're going to be like
the last ones to be disrupted because even though yeah,
(23:48):
like maybe you can make a teacher computer drive a
truck you know, long haul, A single person driving a
long haul truck is pretty efficient.
Speaker 3 (23:55):
There's safety risks and so on.
Speaker 4 (23:56):
The salaries for long haul truckers are going up, they're
not going down.
Speaker 3 (24:00):
But I think you have a lot.
Speaker 4 (24:01):
Of people in what felt like very very secure white
collar jobs who now for some of the reasons you're
talking about, and also for like technology reasons, feel les secure,
including course journalists, which is probably one of the reasons
this conversation is being amplified so much, like maybe it
looms larger in our world than it looms in other worlds.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
I'm wondering when you think this started, Like I'm wondering, like,
there's obviously this iteration that Max was talking about, and
you were referring to the early nineties, the inequality situation,
where in now that I think people are getting very
concerned about, where are the roots of it? Is it
more recent or do you see this as going all
the way back to the nineties.
Speaker 3 (24:37):
I see this is going back to the eighties and nineties. Wow.
Speaker 2 (24:39):
Yeah, Okay.
Speaker 10 (24:41):
I think in the nineteen eighties the stock market soared
and so much of the inequality that we're talking about
here is sort of there's sort of in terms of
wealth inequality, there's sort of a seesaw between incomes for
middle income folk, and like those have been they've been okay,
(25:03):
but they've been pretty stagnant and they haven't kept up
with stock market games by any means. And then home prices,
so home prices actually did go up quite a bit
in the twenty tens, and that actually stopped the rise
in inequality for a little while because a lot of
middle class people were sitting on some home wealth. Well,
home prices have stagnated and the stock market keeps going up,
(25:26):
and a lot of those benefits are going to the
top point one percent or to people who service the
top one percent, like or top point one percent or point. Oh,
there's a there's a personal chef in here that was
making I think a quarter of a million, ye.
Speaker 4 (25:41):
Yeah, one hundred a dog walker making one hundred k
two which or not like over ninety thousand, which again,
like I think a lot of these jobs, the cause
of living in New York is kind of is higher
than it is. The minimum wage is higher. Some of
these jobs look better paid than they actually are. But
even that that dog walker kind of goes to your
point that's somebody who's servicing people with huge amounts of money,
(26:03):
even if he's obviously much less paid.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
Than the the personal chef and personal chef.
Speaker 4 (26:08):
Yeah, there's also the seventy five thousand dollars a year
life lady, which is you know, I don't know if
you all know about this, but like, if you have kids,
the life scares are a thing and if if things
really get bad, you got to call in a life professional.
And I read this and thought that, like she needs
to charge more money like this is this should be
an even more lucrative career. Then I just want to
(26:30):
circle back to the point you just made about stock
wealth and home wealth. There was a quote in the
story I mentioned somebody saying essentially there's a race between
the stock market the housing market, and the stock market's
been you know, doing a million times better or not
a million times better, but it's substantially.
Speaker 9 (26:45):
Better, maybe actually a million about.
Speaker 4 (26:52):
But is that like how big a piece of the
wealth picture is that? Because I would have said before
reading that, I would have said that's not that important,
because most people don't own a lot of stock, and
that things like salary and so on would be the
real drivers of wealth and of a sense of inequality,
but maybe that's not true.
Speaker 3 (27:12):
Well, the really.
Speaker 10 (27:13):
Important concept for not to explain this to you, but
very important concept is the difference between income and wealth, right,
and income is more broadly distributed than wealth.
Speaker 3 (27:24):
But one of the things about.
Speaker 2 (27:27):
Wealth is like the cumulative total of your assets like house, car,
coin collection exactly, and then income is just like your way.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
To see coin collection. Say I actually do have.
Speaker 10 (27:41):
Yes, right, So the bottom fifty percent or even bottom
sixty percent is saving very little money every year, so
they're not even irrelevant when you're talking about wealth inequality.
They don't have they don't really have any net worth,
so they're irrelevant to this. A lot of the people
that New York Magazine is talking about are probably not
(28:02):
saving anything. And I think that that, in some ways
is the big distinction in the economy between people who've
been able to save put some money into a home
or socks or other investments, and the people who can't.
Speaker 3 (28:16):
And that when people.
Speaker 10 (28:18):
Talk about the K shaped economy and talk about how
there's sort of too diverging paths, a lot of that
just is really between people who've been able to save
substantial assets and people who really can't.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
We're gonna have to wrap up so Stacey can start
working on the probably very complicated tax return involving her
coin fille. I don't know if you have to mark
those to market or what. Yeah, but I just want
to share two things. Like one is my favorite job
on this list. I don't know if you all have favorites. Oh,
tugboat chief engineer. This is a person in New York
City who drives a tugboat in the harbor. And this
(28:52):
job he's making one hundred and forty five thousand dollars
a year. Okay and okay, sounds pretty good. You're driving
the boat, but it is like fourteen days on the
boat straight, so you got to really love the waterways.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
I guess you can't get off the boat.
Speaker 3 (29:09):
I don't think you get off unclear, but no, don't you.
Speaker 2 (29:12):
I mean how long you can't tug something for fourteen
Where are you? Where are you taking these boats?
Speaker 4 (29:19):
Oh? Well, so they have to We probably should cut
this for the podcast, but you know, they need someone
to who knows the ins and outs of the harbor.
They have to take them in and out of the
harbor because people who don't know.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
The can't they just take a break, like just maybe
they don't jump on and brab like a slice.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
No tugboat enthusiasts.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
If you know everybody's also, if you tell.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
Us how much you earn, we're happy to keep your
name anonymous.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
All right, any alternative career possibilities here for you? All
that you considered you read this list.
Speaker 2 (29:53):
My my sort of fantasy side hustle has always been barista.
I love coffee, I like talking to people. I like
coffee shops. I just felt like that would be a
good a good fit for me. But it is sixty
three thousand dollars a year, which is that's that's tough
to make it in New York City. So I would
have to be a barista in somewhere less expensive. I'll
(30:16):
have to live that dream later.
Speaker 10 (30:18):
I noticed on the cover of the magazine they have
jazz singer seventeen.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Are you a singer?
Speaker 10 (30:23):
No, I'm not, but in another life I would, Yeah so,
but I don't see jazz singer in the description, So
I want, I really want to know about that person.
Speaker 4 (30:35):
All right, Ben, you should stick around. We're going to
do the underrated stories, and at least one of these
stories maybe both has something for you.
Speaker 9 (30:42):
Okay, Oh, definitely mine does, okay, Stacy, Yeah, time for
underrated stories.
Speaker 3 (30:55):
I've heard some little.
Speaker 4 (30:56):
Bits and pieces about this one, but I've actually kept
my brain. Christine, I appreciate that I don't know what
this is really about it.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
I don't think Ben knows either.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
You're really excited, so I feel so. A couple of
weeks ago, the CEO of McDonald's on his social media feed, uh,
did a tasting of this new burger, the Big archburger
that McDonald's is launching. And he's not a super charismatic person,
(31:29):
and the video is strange.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Chris k here with you've heard about it here it
is the Big Arch, So here we go.
Speaker 3 (31:42):
First. Holy cow, God, that is a big burger. I
don't even know how to attack it got so much
to it.
Speaker 1 (31:49):
Oh, there's also some crispy onions on here as well,
to see those kind of coming out, all right, the
moment of truth. That is so good. That's a big
bite for a big arc. It's distinctively McDonald's. Only McDonald's
could do this type of burger. But it also is
(32:09):
unlike anything else on our menu. It's a delicious product
all right.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
So wait, Ben, I think, just for people who haven't
seen this video, could you just explain why.
Speaker 3 (32:18):
We're laughing at this.
Speaker 10 (32:20):
I guess he's wearing like a sweater, sort of a
v NEX sweater, and he just looks very corporate.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
I guess it is.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
The most corporate video you possibly imagine it is. It
is like a robot.
Speaker 2 (32:36):
CEO is an excellent product.
Speaker 10 (32:38):
Yeah, there's like beige walls behind it, like a really
boring office.
Speaker 4 (32:44):
It looks like his first ever encounter with Hamburger looks
strange because he works at McDonald's.
Speaker 2 (32:51):
He has been getting absolutely trolled for a few reasons,
one calling the burger a product. The other thing when
he's just like I don't know how I'm going to
attack this is so big, And the other one is
the tiny, tiny bite he takes. And then of course
all the CEOs are responding, Like the Burger King CEO
responded with this thing where he's sort of like casual.
(33:12):
He's in like a vest and he takes like this big,
sort of manly bite and he's like I need a napkin,
and like all of the CEOs are now responding with
their own videos. Just been a kind of a disaster
for McDonald's, which did try to respond with a social
media post saying, try our product.
Speaker 3 (33:30):
With the big art. It was cute.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
But anyway, it's been very very interesting to see this
all lad.
Speaker 4 (33:34):
I feel like the takeaway here and like we've been
living this for twenty years, is that it is very
hard for big companies to make like social media videos
and they're just a lot of I can see what
they were trying to do, but it's gone all wrong
to me.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
It's like the problem of the this is the K
shaped economy in a social media video, because this is
like a guy who's way at the top of the
K to the point where no one tells him things
like you should not call it's a product. You should
not wear the sweater vest, Oh yeah, you should, you know.
Like he's spin it so at the top of the key,
he's like two insulated and then his video is meant
for the whole K and it's not okay.
Speaker 4 (34:12):
Okay, I have a thought. This is like an Elon
Musk problem.
Speaker 2 (34:15):
Okay.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
Elon Musk has gotten very rich by basically being himself,
and he like he tweets what he's thinking. Donald Trump too,
there's this new trend among CEOs, which is you just.
Speaker 3 (34:26):
Tweet whatever's on your mind.
Speaker 2 (34:27):
You don't care, just yourself and like some people, authenticity
not everybody.
Speaker 3 (34:33):
Authenticity doesn't work for everybody. Some people are off trying to.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Be I don't think authentic at work is a good idea,
that's my hot take. I think being inauthentic at work
is better.
Speaker 4 (34:44):
You went to business school or whatever, and you've been
calling things products for whatever twenty years. Maybe you need
to try to channel a different person, is my suggestion.
Speaker 2 (34:55):
Yes, a person who eats, who calls a hamburger a
instead of a product.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Looks like he's actually been inside of McDonald's.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
And eating the hamburger before.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
All, Right on my underrated story. Are you ready? Yes?
I am okay.
Speaker 6 (35:10):
This is a.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
Headline from the Wall Street Journal from March eleventh.
Speaker 4 (35:13):
As we record this today, we have been talking about
this topic, so the headline won't come as a surprise.
Speaker 3 (35:19):
But I think it's interesting here.
Speaker 4 (35:20):
It is AI isn't lightning workloads, it's making them more intense,
and it's basically citing surveys an analysis of workers what
they're doing, showing essentially that the people who are using
AI are working even harder than they were working before
they were using AI, partly because they're more productive, but basically,
(35:43):
if you're really using AI, it is hard.
Speaker 10 (35:46):
And they're probably like the people who use the cloud
code and they tweet about it, they're like, oh, I
created an app. I stayed up all night and like
I created it. They're not getting any sleep. They're just
constantly using cloud code like.
Speaker 4 (35:59):
You have to, and even harder now that AI is here,
which seems to be like the opposite of what this
was supposed to do.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
It was supposed to make things easier. I thought, I
feel like this.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Is always the trap of technological advancements that like they
come and they're like, You're like, wow, this makes X
so much easier, and then it's not like you use
that saved time to like chill out and you know,
go walk in the park. No, you use that extra
time to do more work.
Speaker 4 (36:25):
I wanted to bring this up because Gary Tan, who
is an entrepreneur, he runs Why Commoner.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
I'm sure Ben.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Ben's combinators like the Big Yeah, Ben's.
Speaker 4 (36:34):
Probably come across from kid Star, but anyway, he tweeted
a couple of days companies, I'm giving up drinking because
of Claude code. I need my brain to be maximumly
pristine so I can sling ten k oc lines of
code to day.
Speaker 2 (36:48):
See this is also this is as out of touch
as with the McDonald's CEO trying that burger my brain pristine?
Who talks like that?
Speaker 3 (36:58):
I think it's a bit on a ray.
Speaker 2 (37:00):
I don't think it's a bit. I don't know. These guys,
they just need people need like a court jester. But right,
don't you think these guys need a court That needs
to be a new job on the New York Magazine
list is court jester?
Speaker 3 (37:16):
Somebody who can like somebody make fun of them to
their face.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
Someone would make fun of these people to their faces. Yeah,
I actually think you kind of kill it as a court.
Speaker 3 (37:26):
Jester, Ben Stevenman, thanks for being here. You're welcome, Thanks
for having me. The show is produced by Jasmine J. T.
Speaker 4 (37:39):
Green and Stacy Wong. Mangus Henderson is our supervising producer.
Sam Rogan handles engineering, and Dave Purcell fact checks. Special
thanks to Jeff Muscus, Julia Rubin, and Marling. If you
have a minute, please rate and review the show and
mean a lot to us. If you have a story
that should be our business.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Would you want to know how much money we make?
Speaker 4 (37:56):
Email us everybody at bloom asking It's everybody with an
US at Bloomberg dot net and we will answer your question,
but probably not the solar one.
Speaker 3 (38:06):
Thanks for listening, and we'll see you next week.
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