Dynasty Trade Candidates: Buy or Sell These Players Ahead of Free Agency (Ep. 290)

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football podcast.
I'm Ryan Warmley, joined by Scott Bogman and by Pat
fitz Morris. We were talking some Dynasty players to buy
or sell ahead of NFL free agency in just a
couple of weeks. Quick reminder for everybody that all of
our consensus rankings and tiers can be found at Fantasypros
dot com slash rankings. From there you can of course

(00:24):
navigate to the Dynasty rankings as well, and if you're
listening to the audio version, we just launched the brand
new Fantasy Pros Dynasty YouTube channel. We will be bringing
you rookie rankings, super flex strategy, startup, draft and trade advice.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
All year long.

Speaker 1 (00:39):
If you're building for the future, this channel is built
for you. Just search Fantasy Pros Dynasty channel on YouTube
and hit subscribe.

Speaker 2 (00:46):
We've got some live streams on there.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
Fitz and I did one yesterday that was very fun,
got to interact to the fans.

Speaker 2 (00:51):
We'll of course have all of our usual shows. The
show is not.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
Changing, It just can be found in a new spot
on the Fantasy Pros Dynasty YouTube channel, so please be
sure to go some there. If you like what we're
we're bringing out here for you, guys, let's start with
the buys here. We'll jump right in, no preamble.

Speaker 3 (01:07):
Fits.

Speaker 4 (01:07):
We'll start with you.

Speaker 2 (01:07):
Who's your first player that you want to buy ahead
of free agency?

Speaker 5 (01:10):
Malik Willis and I think in super flex leagues, Malik
Willis is the quintessential by now targets.

Speaker 3 (01:18):
This year's rookie.

Speaker 5 (01:19):
Class is only going to have one quarterback who will
come too the league and start right away or at
least within the first month or so of the season.
It's Fernando Mendoza, and there's really no one else. And
there are more teams that need starting quarterbacks than there
are available starting caliber quarterbacks. Malik Willis is about to
become an unrestricted free agent. He is going to sign

(01:40):
somewhere and become some team's unquestioned twenty twenty six starter.
And we know that running quarterbacks are cheat code in
fantasy football. In six career starts, Malik Willis has averaged
forty four point eight rushing yards per game and has
run for four touchdowns. He's averaged about eight point five
fantasy points per game just with his legs, and this

(02:00):
past season with the Packers, Willis actually showed some passing
ability too. When Jordan Loves sustain a concussion midway through
the second quarter of the Packers Week sixteen game against
the Bears, Willis came in completed nine of eleven passes
for one hundred and twenty one yards and a touchdown
in about two and a half quarters. And the next
week against the Ravens, Willis started played the whole game

(02:22):
eighteen of twenty one for two hundred and eighty eight
yards and one touchdown. So in those two games he
completed eighty four point four percent of his passes and
average twelve point eight yards per attempt. Small sample size,
for sure, he's not going to do that over a
full season, but Willis did look very good as a
passer in those two games. As soon as he signed somewhere,
the price is going to skyrocket. So if you need

(02:45):
to upgrade your quarterback position in a super flex league,
you should be trying to put together an offer to
acquire Malik Willis.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
In the consensus Dynasty rankings on fantasypros dot Com, Willis
is QB thirty two. That's obviously going to go up
once he is signed to be a starter somewhere. It
looks like in the most recent update on the site
that I'm seeing from you, he's up at QB twenty three.
Do you expect that to move based on where he signs,
or do you think like there is still some uncertainty

(03:13):
to hear right like it's gonna be his first year
as a full time starter, like twenty three is roughly
like like roughly where he's gonna be regardless of where
he signs, or do you think that could move even
more for you?

Speaker 3 (03:23):
Right now I've got him.

Speaker 5 (03:24):
The three guys I have directly ahead of him are
Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, and Tyler Shuck. Maybe I could
get him past Shuck, I'm probably not gonna be able
to get him pass Golf or Donald in Dynasty.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
Like, I don't know.

Speaker 5 (03:37):
I mean, what are the most desirable landing spots? Like
Arizona wouldn't be bad, Miami might not be terrible, Pittsburgh Bogs.

Speaker 4 (03:45):
Yeah, I would love it please.

Speaker 5 (03:47):
So yeah, I mean those are decent landing spots. Just
I don't know if there's one that's got such great
pass cap. Maybe Arizona is the best with the combination
of Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Junior, and Michael Wilson.

Speaker 6 (04:02):
That would be great form a leak. I have him
at twenty three. I think the one guy or twenty four,
excuse me, the one guy could move him ahead of Is.
I have him one spot behind cam Ward, who I
still hold out a lot of hope for so but
I do think that thirty two is absurd, Like he
needs to be at least a QB two in twelve
man leagues. He's definitely going to be a starter in

(04:24):
super flex leagues next year, and he offers a lot
of rushing upsides, So Arizona would be a great spot.
You'd like him a little less than a couple of
those other spots. But I think this was one of
the more obvious calls. So I love this one, FITZI,
because I was scrounging for a quarterback and I was like,
I know, if it's just gonna say Malik Willis, then

(04:45):
I don't see another one over here. I want to
put in here for this.

Speaker 2 (04:49):
I think I'll lock him anywhere.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
I can't think of a landing spot where I would
be like, like, even if you went to like the Jets,
like Garrett Wilson. Maybe they draft a receiver at the
sixteenth pick this year, the offensive line gets a little healthier, Like,
like even the worst case scenarios I can think of
for him, if he's ciding somewhere to be a starter,
I'm gonna be excited. Like it'll be very hard for
me to kind of come off of that. So that
that's what makes him such a strong buy. Is I

(05:12):
feel the downside is really not all that present. Like
obviously he could play poorly and you know that can
always happen, but like the downside in terms of landing
spot and how his value will change between now in August,
I don't think is really that. So I think I
was think gonna makes him a really good calling And
to your point, Bogman, he's kind of like the obvious
quarterback to talk about, so we don't have any.

Speaker 6 (05:31):
I'm so excited just to see him anywhere else. I'm
with you, like, just get him somewhere. I don't want
to see him. What the Jets worm, I'll say that,
but like, get him anywhere else, and I'm gonna be extra.

Speaker 1 (05:40):
The Jets wouldn't be my top choice, but again, like
I'm not going to be that scared off.

Speaker 5 (05:43):
If he goes to the Jets, they have a decent
offensive line, like they've been investing in their offensive line,
and they've Garrett Wilson, So I mean the Jets.

Speaker 1 (05:53):
And Mason Taylor takes takes steps for year two, like
the problem with the Jets has been the quarterback. So
if you think Willis is good, you know again, I'm
not trying to say they're in the top choice.

Speaker 5 (06:03):
And people in redraft were ranking Justin Fields as a
QB one a low in QBA one last year. And
I think Malik Willis might be a better passer than
Justin fields Is.

Speaker 2 (06:13):
I don't I think he did.

Speaker 5 (06:15):
I mean that's standing him with faint praise, but I
like a year ago, I don't know if people would
have said that about Malik Willis, that he's a better passer.

Speaker 6 (06:23):
He's the perfect guy to sit and wait right like
he sat and he waited. I hope Jaylen Milroe gets
the same opportunity right like, sit and wait for two
to three seasons, get your seasoning, come in. When a
guy gets hurt, show off and then sign somewhere. That's
the way to do.

Speaker 5 (06:38):
The people who wrote him off after the Tenant, Like
we always knew he was going to be a project
coming out of Liberty, and yeah, just did not get
the chance. He sort of failed at Tennessee, and even
a lot of Dynasty managers wrote him off even though
everyone should have known that he needed time. And that's
that's kind of why I'm still not giving up on

(06:58):
Anthony richards And and tell people that that's not to.

Speaker 3 (07:02):
Take people want to hear.

Speaker 5 (07:03):
But like, it wouldn't surprise me if Anthony Richardson resurface
somewhere and was better now that he's had time to
like sort of sit back and watch and learn things.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
Well, we mentioned the Jets.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
Let's go to a running back on the Jets, Bogman,
who do you have is your next.

Speaker 2 (07:19):
Or your first?

Speaker 4 (07:19):
Buy?

Speaker 6 (07:20):
Let's go Breas Hall Man. He's still only twenty five
years old. He's a UFA. This season he was twenty first.
He was twenty first in PPR points per game. The
offensive line for the Jets wasn't the worst of the league,
but they did grade twenty second run blocking and the
quarterbacks were exceptionally disgusting for the Jets this year, and

(07:41):
Breas Hall was still seventh and explosive run percentage ninth
and miss tackles force And they gave up the second
most points in the NFL last year, and they were
passing for a lot of the second half. They ran
a lot because they knew they couldn't pass because a
quarterback play was so bad. So I'm just, you know,
kind of like worm how you mentioned with Malik Willis,

(08:03):
just get him on any different team and he's likely
to improve. I mean, the Titans have a ton of money,
and their offensive line is better and they need weapons.
The Commanders have a little money. They could use a
good running back. Obviously. The Chiefs have been tied to
Jeremiah Love. If they can work that cap and work
in bres Hall, the Texans, the Vikings, the Jags, the Panthers,

(08:25):
these are all upgrades over the Jets in my opinion,
for one of the better backs in the league. And
I think there's a little frustration with Brece Hall. So
I think his current ECR is eight, but that is
really held together by one person has him ranked at four,
and I think two or three people have him an eight.
Then it's mainly nine and belows that's where I have

(08:45):
him at nine. So I think the perception is not
as rosy as his ECR on Breshall. So this is
a guy that I'm going to look to buy before
the excitement of him signing with another team happens.

Speaker 1 (08:59):
Fit's where Breece Hall rank for you? If he signes
with whatever team you consider to be best case scenario
Chiefs Texans like whoever that is, if he sides there,
where will Breesce Hall be ranked for you?

Speaker 5 (09:10):
It's probably Kansas City. I would have him either nine
or ten. Right now, I've got him behind Trevion Henderson,
and I might have to reevaluate that, especially knowing Trevion
Henderson is probably going to be in exactly the same
situation next year sharing work with ramondre Stevenson.

Speaker 3 (09:30):
And so right.

Speaker 5 (09:31):
Now though I have Breece Hall eleven, but that does
factor in.

Speaker 3 (09:35):
I do have Jeremiah Love.

Speaker 5 (09:37):
Ranked in my overall dynasty rankings now, so he's ahead
of him. But yeah, low end RB one, I think
there is room for his stock to go higher depending
on the landing spot, and probably it is going to
be a better landing spot than the Jets, even though
their offensive line is okay. Like Bogman said, it just
wasn't a high octane offense that offered a lot of

(09:58):
touchdown potential. Wherever he goes five scores, right, he's gonna
more touchdown potential wherever it is, Houston, Washington, Kansas City.
I think you know a good shot at double digit
tds next year.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
Is there a worst case scenario for you, Bogman in
terms of Atlantic spot, I mean, for the.

Speaker 6 (10:17):
Teams that have money and need a running back. I
don't really think there is, right, like I think when
you boil it down that way, because what's the worst
of the teams, I said, probably the Titans, right, And
I think this is a building offense, and the line
was pretty good last year, and you know, you add
some playmakers for cam Ward, you give him a good
running back, you start building the pieces around him. I

(10:38):
think that could be a pretty good offense. So I
would say that there's not many chances he can land somewhere,
unless it's just somewhere I'm completely missing right now where
he could go and be worse than the Jets were
last year. I mean they started Brady Cook for a
grip of games terrible.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
Well, Fitz just talking about Breesze Hall. Let's talk about
his former back field Nate. Braylan Allen is your next by.

Speaker 5 (11:02):
Yeah, so Braylan Allen is pretty cheap right now. I
think you could probably get him for a late second
round pick, and I think considering that a late second
round pick would probably put him, I don't know, if
you're drafting the late second round, you would be getting
a running back outside the top six or seven in

(11:24):
this year's not very exciting rookie running back class, and
I think I would rather have Braylan Allen than someone like,
I don't know, Nick Singleton or even Mike Washington.

Speaker 3 (11:37):
Yeah, so breshall is going to be a free agent.

Speaker 5 (11:41):
As we just mentioned, it seems unlikely that the Jets
are going to resign him.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
This is a team that needs to do.

Speaker 5 (11:46):
A full gut rehab of their roster, and signing a
running back to a huge contract doesn't seem like a
great way to launch a full on rebuild. If Hall
isn't resigned, that leaves Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis as
the top two running backs on the Jet step chart.
Jets probably would add another running back or two in
free agency and or the draft, but I don't think

(12:06):
they'd spend a good deal of money or draft capital
on one. It's possible Isaiah Davis outplays Allen and winds
up ahead of him in the pecking order. I mean,
Davis has averaged five point six yards per carry in
his two NFL seasons, albeit on only seventy three rushing attempts.
Allen has only averaged three point seven yards per carry.

(12:26):
But I do think Allan has the more appealing toolkit.
It's two hundred and thirty five pounds and had four
or five speed at the combine, which gave him a
ninety six percentile speed score when he entered the league.
According to our Friends of Player profile profiler dot com,
Braylan Allen when he was a freshman at Wisconsin true

(12:46):
freshman twelve hundred and sixty eight rushing yards and twelve touchdowns.
He played his entire freshman season at age seventeen. He
didn't turn eighteen until after his freshman season. Like this
dude has been in the NFL for two seasons and
he just turned twenty two. He was the youngest player
in the twenty twenty four draft class at any position.

(13:06):
Only played four games last year, sprained his MCL wound
up on season ending IR We didn't really get a
good look at him, but again, he's cheap, and I
think there's a chance he as a substantial role for
the Jets next year.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
He's RB fifty in Dynasty rankings, Bagman, where is he
for you?

Speaker 4 (13:24):
Forty six?

Speaker 6 (13:25):
I actually I do have this scenario where I like
Isaiah Davis a little bit more than Braylen Allen, But
this is these are the types of swings you want
to take at this point in the season. So I'm
one hundred percent with this as a by low type
of guy going into free agency. I think it's very
unlikely the briefs Halt wants to be back with the

(13:47):
Jets and that the Jets will spend money on a
running back with so many needs on this team. So
I think it's going to be one of those two guys,
and it's probably going to be close to a down
the middle split. But as fitz said, if it is
down the middle and it's not Isaiah Davis walking away
with it, Braylen Allen's gonna score those touchdowns. Most likely

(14:07):
Isaiah Davis compounded too, but I think that Braylen Allen
is your short yardage back.

Speaker 4 (14:13):
If that's the case either way.

Speaker 6 (14:15):
And as Fitz mentioned, he is so cheap he's a
throw in on some deals s he's a second round pick.
You could get him four most likely, and in this class,
I would much rather have the shot on a guy
like Braylan Allen making it than a second round pick.
So there's many many scenarios where Isaiah Davis comes away

(14:35):
or excuse me, Braylen Allen comes away or Isaiah Davis
either one trade for either one of them at this
point with way way more than they cost you right now.

Speaker 4 (14:43):
So I like the swing for sure.

Speaker 1 (14:47):
Alan is one spot behind Jadarian Price in the consensus rankings,
so we do have rookies starting to get in there.
Does that sound about right to you? I mean, I
know you mentioned Singleton.

Speaker 6 (14:57):
I think it's like I think I would rather have
to dear Price because I think his vision is great,
but he's not receiving back at all. He's a first,
second down back. That's exactly what Braylen Allen is, though
you could you could lump those guys together. So I
would probably rather have Jadarian Price, but Brailin Allen. I
think Brayleen all might be younger than Jeeriuan Price.

Speaker 2 (15:16):
They're both twenty two.

Speaker 1 (15:16):
I don't know whose birthday game first, but they are
both currently twenty two, so.

Speaker 4 (15:20):
And NFL experience.

Speaker 6 (15:21):
You know what, Actually, I would lean Brayleen Allen there,
give me bringing on an over Jgearian Price, right, it's
what do you think?

Speaker 5 (15:27):
By the way, I suspect Jeddarian Price is probably older
because Braylen Allen just turned twenty two last month in January,
so I would.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
Rather I just looked it up. By the way, Price
is older by about four months.

Speaker 5 (15:38):
Okay, I have Jenarian Price ranked ahead of him right now.
I have Braylen Allen one spot ahead of Mike Washington,
and Washington is I think my running back six in
the rookie class. So there are about five rookies i'd
rather have, even though this isn't a great rookie class, but.

Speaker 3 (15:55):
Allen is still pretty compelling.

Speaker 5 (15:57):
I just think he's kind of forgotten about because he
only played the four days last year and hasn't been
on anyone's radar since, you know, September.

Speaker 4 (16:04):
Very good point.

Speaker 6 (16:05):
I mean, let's go to a wide receiver for your
next by Ricky Piersaw. Let's go and I love this
that his value has moved so far down. I was
completely incorrect about him coming in right because I was like, Oh,
we have Valuke, we have Jennings, we have Kittle, we
have CMC. Where is Ricky Pearsall going to make his say? Well,
I didn't realize that everybody who's going to get hurt

(16:26):
or go crazy, and you know that's basically what happened.
Ricky Piersoll of course himself missed a whole bunch of
games this year. But I think that frustration is great
for his value because going into next year, we know
Ayuk is gone. Kittle tore his ACL late late in
the season in the playoffs. I believe Jennings and Born
are both the UFAs. They need defensive depth out of

(16:49):
the draft and in free agency that's where they should
spend most of their money. So I mean, who are
they going to bring in? You could bring back Juwan
Jennings if Mike Evans wants to. George Kittle has talked
about a reunion with Debo. I just Piersoll was fifth
in routes run for the Niners this year. He's going
to be second, or you're probably behind CMC.

Speaker 4 (17:12):
In twenty twenty six.

Speaker 6 (17:14):
You know, the knee injury is past him obviously at
the unfortunate shooting incident is rookie season and still look good.
I'm ready for this third year to be the Ricky
pearsall emergency here. And I think if you're buying him now,
you're getting in before his value is going to skyrocket.
So right now he's floating around like right a mid

(17:35):
tier wide receiver three. I think that's probably correct in
his rankings. But this is a guy that there's a lot,
a lot, a lot of room for growth, and I
think if you want to get in, this is your
last chance to get in before his value skyrockets.

Speaker 7 (17:51):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (17:51):
Fits he's at wide receiver thirty, so to Bogin's point,
right in the middle of the wide receiver three range.
Some of the names ahead of him, i'd move him
ahead of, like Travis Hunter and DK mex Calf. Some
of the names behind him, I you know, Michael Pittman,
Xavier Worthy, Terry McLaurin of Cortland Sutton, those are the
four names directly behind him.

Speaker 2 (18:07):
Christian Watson's behind him too. It feels like about the
right rage.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
I think there's more upside there to Bogman's point, but
I find it hard. There's so many good ride receivers
that I find it harder to rank him much higher
than about thirty, even if I do think there's some
inherent upside there.

Speaker 3 (18:21):
Yeah, so I've gotten a wide receiver thirty two.

Speaker 5 (18:24):
I've got him behind Denzel Boston and Jalen Waddle and
directly ahead of Jayden Higgins and Christian Watson, who.

Speaker 3 (18:30):
Are two receivers I like a lot.

Speaker 5 (18:31):
So Yeah, I love this call by Bogman, and I've
got a couple of shares of Ricky Piersoll and Dynasty leagues,
and I'm in no great hurry to get rid of him.
I think he's got a very good chance to be
an alpha receiver for the forty nine ers. He's really athletic,
first round draft capital, plays in a Kyle Shanahan offense,

(18:54):
and I think man watching him this year when he
was healthy, he's a better route runner that he gets
credit for, like he can slip guys, and I'm very
excited about the future. He's just going to show he
can stay healthy, and certainly I'm not holding that the
shooting against him as far as missing that time, but
there have been some other injury issues.

Speaker 4 (19:16):
There's more time with the knee injury, right, So.

Speaker 5 (19:18):
I just want to see what this guy can do
over like sixteen or seventeen games.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
We haven't really talked about price for a lot of
these guys. What would you spend to get pearsall in
terms of, you know, rookie draft capital.

Speaker 2 (19:30):
Obviously, this used class is a little.

Speaker 1 (19:32):
Weaker, So like a late first I'm assuming you'd have
no problem with a mid first, you know, a late
twenty twenty seven first, if you expect to be a contender.

Speaker 2 (19:40):
What kind of you know, draft capital would you spend fit?

Speaker 5 (19:43):
So I mentioned I've got him right behind Denzel Boston
in my rankings, and I think I have in super flex,
I've got Boston ranked. Let's say he's behind love Price,
and then I've got one oh six, So I'd like
to drop a one oh seven or one o eight
for Ricky Pearsall.

Speaker 4 (20:00):
Yeah, that sound right, Bob, That's exactly right.

Speaker 6 (20:02):
Like a late first round pick, you know, pass a
midway point, and this class is where you're gonna do it.
I don't think i'd give up a late in twenty
twenty seven for Ricky Piersaw yet I would give up
like maybe an early two forum but not not a
one for next year, because next year's class does look
to be exceptional.

Speaker 3 (20:20):
It is awesome.

Speaker 5 (20:21):
But if if it was a late like if I
knew my team was going to be a machine and
I was pretty confident and I was going to be
in the final four, I might be willing to give
up a late twenty twenty seven for him.

Speaker 6 (20:31):
So like a twelve or maybe like an early second
or something.

Speaker 5 (20:35):
Yeah, yeah, I would have to have supreme confidence in
my roster that I was pretty bulletproof as far as
being a final four guy.

Speaker 4 (20:43):
I think I like the idea.

Speaker 6 (20:46):
I don't hate it, but I do think the midway
through the year, that late first round pick is going
to be worth way more than Ricky Piersaw because of speculation,
because of how people view those picks.

Speaker 5 (20:56):
So I was just taking a mental inventory just of
the quarter are going to be available next year.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
Oh my goodness, it's yeah, if you're.

Speaker 4 (21:03):
In super Flex, you definitely can't give that pick away.

Speaker 6 (21:06):
But yeah, the I just I think it's going to
be your last time because if he is healthy this
year and he's the number one wide receiver on this team,
his value is really going to skyrocket, So I do
think this is kind of your last chance to get
on board now. If you miss the six games this year,
his value is going to tumble back the other way,

(21:26):
So he is risky. There is some risk there, but
I'm willing to take the risk and play the upside here.

Speaker 1 (21:33):
Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor,
hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. I know it's tough with
no football, but like the song says, I bet, I
will survive. With hard Rock Bet, there's always something to
bet on every night, hoops, hockey, and so much more,
plus all the great same game parlay, live betting, and player.

Speaker 2 (21:51):
Prop options you're used to.

Speaker 1 (21:52):
And did you know that hard Rock Bet is the
official sports betting partner of the Miami Heat and the
Orlando Magic, so they know their basket. If you haven't
signed up with hard Rock Bet yet, there's never been
a better time. New sign ups can double their winnings
on their first ten bets a max of fifty dollars.
That's right, If you would have won one hundred bucks
on your bet, make that two hundred dollars. The hard

(22:13):
Rock Bet sportsbook app is the only legal sportsbook for
whenever you're in Florida, and it's also live in Arizona, Ohio,
New Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan. Coming
soon to more states too. Plus hard Rock Bet offers
new promos daily, so whenever you're listening, just open the
app and check out what they've got any day of
the week. Download the hard Rock Bet app and make

(22:34):
your first deposit.

Speaker 7 (22:35):
Payble and bonus bets not a cash offer offered by
the Seminal Tribe of Florida and Florida offered by the
Seminal hard Rock.

Speaker 4 (22:40):
Digital LLC in other states.

Speaker 7 (22:42):
Must be twenty one plus in physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia. Play terms and conditions apply.
Concerned about gambling in Florida, call one eight three to
three play wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you
know as a gambling problem, laws help called one eight
hundred and nine with it. Gambling problem called one hundred
ambler In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia.

Speaker 5 (23:04):
So fits us go to a receiver of your own
for your buys, Davante Smith. It seems like the marriage
between AJ Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles has been fraying
for a while and seems like it's probably headed toward
a divorce. I don't think it would be shocking if
AJ Brown were still an Eagle when the twenty twenty
six season begins, but I think it's better than fifty

(23:26):
to fifty that he's wearing some other team's uniform by
the time we get to Week one. Dallas Goddard is
thirty one years old and about to become an unrestricted
free agent, so maybe the Eagles resign him, maybe not.
There's a chance that by the time we get to
free agency, or maybe by the time we get to
the NFL Draft, that DeVante Smith is the only remaining

(23:47):
member of the Eagles Big three pass catchers from twenty
twenty five who's still an Eagle. And obviously, if the
Eagles choose not to keep AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard,
they're going to get other pass catchers in free agency
and or the but DeVante Smith would probably move up
in the pecking order and probably be the favorite to
lead the team in targets and receptions if aj Brown

(24:08):
is no longer there. So Smith is twenty seven years old,
he is squarely in the prime of his career. Over
his five NFL seasons, he's averaged nine point one yards
per target and one point nine one yards per rout run.
Those are both excellent numbers. He's had three one thousand
yard seasons. He's only missed five games in five years,
and I believe two of those games were meaningless Week

(24:30):
eighteen games where he and the other starters were held out.
And this dude is one of the best route runners
in the NFL. Like DeVante, Smith is a terrific player
who could get a bump in usage in twenty twenty six.
I think he's likely to be considered more valuable in
Dynasty in a few months than he is right now.

Speaker 2 (24:49):
Bogman.

Speaker 1 (24:49):
The interesting thing about DeVante Smith is that in the
consensus rankings, he's in a stretch of one two thy
for five straight names that are not the number one
targets their offenses. It goes to wide receiver twenty three,
Wide receiver twenty seven Jamison Williams, Devonte Smith Jalen Wattle,
Luther Burden, Jordan Addison. Do you think Smith kind of

(25:10):
stands above those other guys as kind of premier wide
receiver twos in their own offenses.

Speaker 6 (25:15):
I don't think he stands above them, but I think
he definitely belongs to that group, and that's right where
I have him. I have him at twenty six his CR.
You said it's twenty.

Speaker 4 (25:24):
Four for four.

Speaker 6 (25:25):
Yeah, so I have n't run in that group. I'd
put him in that tier with like JMO and Waddle
and Burden, and I put DK in that group as well,
because I think if they get good quarterback play in
a more vertical offense with McCarthy, he should be pretty
good in that system.

Speaker 4 (25:43):
So I think DeVante is great. I do think that.

Speaker 6 (25:48):
His value will fluctuate based on who Philly brings in
after trading AJ Brown. If it's a rookie, he's gonna
go way up. If they bring in a veteran, you know,
maybe it's stays somewhere near the same. But I do
think that there's a lot of value in DeVante right now,
and he's a guy a lot like Ricky Pierce all that.
If you give him the long leash, and he is

(26:09):
your number one guy by a lot. He could really
have an insanely productive season, So I'm excited to see
what they put around him and see how his value
shifts based on that fits.

Speaker 1 (26:21):
Would you rather have Smith or AJ Brown on your
Dynasty roster? They are in the same tier in the
consensus rankings, Brown is higher.

Speaker 3 (26:28):
I've got a J. Brown two spots higher, so not
by a lot.

Speaker 2 (26:32):
White marchin.

Speaker 5 (26:33):
Yeah, I mean, Brown is an awesome player for sure,
and I almost want to see him go somewhere else
where he could be a little happier and maybe more productive.

Speaker 4 (26:42):
But you want to see him in New England.

Speaker 3 (26:45):
I kind of do.

Speaker 5 (26:46):
I kind of be that would be. Yeah, he and
Drake May, that could be. That could be some fun.

Speaker 4 (26:52):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (26:52):
I like that idea, But I don't want to tell
that to Joe because he tries to put him on
the Patriots every single time.

Speaker 4 (26:57):
So you guys know, yeah, it's.

Speaker 1 (26:59):
A a good fit, it seems like, so I can
understand why.

Speaker 3 (27:02):
Yeah, I want to see it for Drake May. I
don't want to see it for Joe.

Speaker 4 (27:05):
I don't want Joe to be happy.

Speaker 1 (27:06):
Yeah, all right, where he consens us there last buy here, Bogman,
you got tight.

Speaker 2 (27:12):
End for us?

Speaker 6 (27:13):
Yeah, it's your boy, Isaiah Likely. I'm coming around. We
all thought this was gonna be Andrew's gone and Isaiah Likelee.

Speaker 2 (27:18):
Yeah, we've been talking about this one for like over
a year or five.

Speaker 4 (27:21):
I know, I know, Well, we didn't think it was
going to be this.

Speaker 6 (27:24):
It was let's buy Isaiah Likely for when Mark Andrews
is gone and he becomes Lamar's number one tight end.
Well we now know, for whatever reason, they extended Mark
Andrews and they're gonna let Isaiah Likely walk. So CCR's nineteen,
I have him at twelve. He has averaged twelve and
a half PPR points per game in nine games without
Mark Andrews, which would have been good enough for tight

(27:45):
end six I believe last season. And these teams that
have money and need a tight end, or don't have
money and still need a tight end and can finagle
the cap because it's kind of a joke, but Miami, Tennessee, Denver,
Kansas City, Philly to place Goddard, the Giants, the Falcons,
the Panthers, the Bucks, I think these these would all

(28:08):
be upgrades and he wouldn't be splitting time with guys
anywhere in this group. So you know, Pitts is a
free agent for Atlanta if they don't franchise him and
bring it back. I kind of think they do, but
that is a possibility as well. So like, there are
many many spots for him to land. He's been great
without Mark Andrews, and we know he's not going to
be brought into block. He's going to be brought in

(28:28):
to catch the ball. So I'm excited to see where
he lands. And I think he needs to be a
tight end one and I'm pretty surprised that he hasn't
moved higher up in the ECR so far.

Speaker 1 (28:40):
I would say, as a Ravens fan, the single move
from Eric to Cossa that I have least understood in
his tenure as GM is the extension for Mark Andrews.
It just feels so obvious that at this point likely
is the better option going forward. He's five years younger,
he's more explosive.

Speaker 6 (28:58):
He's got to be a really good player, right, Like
that's because that's the only way it makes sense to me,
I guess, but it's it's pretty I know that there's
like some of its fake money, but like, it's a
pretty sizable extension for just a locker room presence when
you have this younger, more dynamic option who by all
accounts as a good teammate. It's not like Likely is

(29:18):
a problem in that regard Available and like tight ends
take a few years fits to be ready to contribute.

Speaker 1 (29:25):
So like like Likely is two spots behind in ECR
Kenyon Sadik, I'd much rather have Likely, because even if
Sadek ends up being good with tight ends, it typically
takes a couple of years. I know, in recent years
we've had a lot of guys kind of burst onto
the scene right away. More so historically that hasn't been
the case Likely. I'll be very surprised if he gets
the opportunity. If he's not a top twelve tight end

(29:46):
this season. I just I just can't see a world
where he's not good enough.

Speaker 5 (29:49):
I mean, I agree with everything you said, although I
do have Kenyon Sadik and Eli Stowers ahead of him
in Dynasty. But like, yeah, I was. I was surprised
by the move to re sign Andrews. The minute I
saw that news come across, my first thought was, like, oh,
worm is not going.

Speaker 6 (30:07):
To be happy about yes, we talked about him so much.
How would that not be our first thought? Like, and
by the way, I kind of put his name in
here to kick up this hornet's nest, so and I.

Speaker 5 (30:16):
Can't imagine like blocking as the red You've got Charlie
Kohler on.

Speaker 4 (30:20):
The aster, you need weapons.

Speaker 5 (30:22):
It was a really confusing move by the cost. I
totally agree with you on that. And yeah, I'm going
to be very excited to see where likely lands. I
just want him to have a clear runway and have
the chance to show what he can do as the
number one guy, because this is not a guy who
based on the talent, like he should have a five
hundred yard receiving season by now. But obviously with Mark

(30:45):
Andrews there, it's been kind of complicated, and I just
I want him to go somewhere where he can maybe
have a chance to see a hundred targets.

Speaker 1 (30:55):
I would not rake him this highly, of course, but
we're talking upside, like a feasible outcome upside. I think
like a year from now, we could be talking about
him as tight end three in Dynasty, like Bowers of
McBride are the only two players. I am one hundred
percent certain will be still ranked ahead of him a
year from now, barring some kind of catastrophic injury. Again,

(31:17):
I'm not saying he is going to get that high,
but I think that's that is a non zero out
percent chance of an outcome. Like I think that actually
is on the table. He is that talented and it's
a really big tier two behind Bowers of McBride. I
don't see any reason why if he gets the opportunity,
he couldn't be in that tier and near the top
of it. Like, he is really good with the ball
in his hands, he makes great catches. He's only twenty

(31:39):
five years old, that's a great age for a tight end.
Like he is good enough at blocking that you can
put him on the field most plays. Like he's a
really really good player who just hasn't gotten the opportunity
to shine. And I'm really hoping he gets that opportunity.
I really wish it was in Baltimore.

Speaker 5 (31:56):
But yeah, I'm not ready to put him in that well,
only not the Bauers McBride class, and maybe not the
Loveland Fan and Craft Warren class either.

Speaker 4 (32:05):
But I think eight. I think eight is the highest
that is valuable as.

Speaker 2 (32:10):
Sam I just pure ceiling. I disagree.

Speaker 1 (32:14):
I think he's absolutely in that tier two like behind
Bowers McBride. Again, it's not guaranteeing he will get there.
I'm not saying he's definitely going to be a top
three tight end a year from now, but I don't
think there's anything stopping him for being more productive than
Harold Fan and with that quarterback situation Craft coming off
the injury like he likely is. Really the opportunity is

(32:35):
the only thing that's been missing. Those guys have had
more of an opportunity than he has, like and they
haven't been blocked by this better you know best friend
of the quarterback tight end in Mark Andrews the way
likely has if likely gets a chance, like, I don't
think talent is going to limit him.

Speaker 2 (32:49):
I think it's only opportunity.

Speaker 5 (32:50):
Let me let me ask Bogman this worm since you're
shamelessly biased, Bogs Isaiah Likely or Dalton Kincaid.

Speaker 4 (32:58):
Uh So I have I.

Speaker 6 (33:00):
Have King Kaid higher still, I have him at nine.
I have Likely at twelve. But that is, like I said, I.

Speaker 3 (33:06):
Think Landing Spot could maybe flip that.

Speaker 4 (33:08):
It really could.

Speaker 6 (33:09):
I think as high as eight is where I could
get him like, because I wouldn't the guys that I
just know my redline is for where I just couldn't
put Isaiah Likely before we see him produce in a
new spot is eight, right, So that's behind for me
Pitts at seven, then Fan and at six Kraft Loveland,
War McBride, Bowers. So I couldn't put him out of

(33:30):
any of those guys without at least seeing him for
a season with this new landing spot and seeing the
type of expansion we get. But I do, I mean,
he could easily be a tight end one. I cannot
believe he's still at nineteen. I think that's absurd.

Speaker 3 (33:43):
Right now, do you have him ahead of her behind
Breton Strange.

Speaker 4 (33:46):
I'm ahead of Breton Strange, all right.

Speaker 3 (33:49):
I've got those two kind of neck and neck.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
And to be clear, I just want to reemphasize I
know you guys heard this, but just because when the
conversation has gone, I'm not saying Likely should be up
there now. I'm saying a year from now, once you've
seen with the opportunity I could see him getting there.
I would still have Kinkaid ranked ahead of him right
now as it stands, without seeing him in the new
offense about seeing where he goes, you know, all that stuff.
So I agree with you, Bogman that like I couldn't
get him higher than like the top eight.

Speaker 2 (34:12):
Now I'm saying a year from now, I could see
him being higher than that.

Speaker 4 (34:15):
That's fair.

Speaker 2 (34:17):
But yeah, I really like this.

Speaker 1 (34:18):
We've talked about him a ton on this show, so
I think we can move on because everybody.

Speaker 2 (34:21):
Knows how I feel.

Speaker 1 (34:23):
You guys can join the Fantasy Pros community on Discord
and share your moves in one of our dynasty threads,
chat with other fans, and get access to exclusive amas
that wind up on our podcast feed.

Speaker 2 (34:33):
Here's our current schedule.

Speaker 1 (34:34):
Myself and Fits at five Eastern on the first Tuesday
of every month, Bogman in Fits at five Eastern on
the third Tuesday of every month. Come get your questions
answered and be on the show at Fantasypros dot com
slash chat. All right, guys, let's get into our cells.

Speaker 2 (34:48):
Fits. Start us off.

Speaker 3 (34:50):
RJ.

Speaker 5 (34:50):
Harvey and I'm glad I'm not doing the show with
Derek Brown because he would be very upset by this.

Speaker 3 (34:56):
He is a big RJ.

Speaker 5 (34:57):
Harvey advocate, right, I know, yards per carry is kind
of a bad stat for running backs.

Speaker 3 (35:02):
Three point seven for R J.

Speaker 5 (35:05):
Harvey during the regular season averaged negative zero point sixty
four rushing yards over expected per carry, which was the
fourth worst mark in the league among running backs, third
worst if you set a qualification of one hundred carries.

Speaker 3 (35:21):
I don't know if R J.

Speaker 5 (35:23):
Harvey was really as bad as those stats suggest, but
I don't think he looked like a future star either.
I didn't really see a lot of the lateral agility
that I saw from his UCF film, which really excited me.
I didn't see him shine as a pass catcher as
much as I thought he might. And Sean Payton has

(35:43):
this long history of deploying multiple running backs, not even
peak Alvin Kamara had the backfield to himself during Sean
Payton's days with the Saints.

Speaker 3 (35:53):
So I think the.

Speaker 5 (35:54):
Broncos are either going to resign JK. Dobbins or go
out and sign some other veteran running back. And you
know we were talking about, well, I don't know if
it would be a worst case scenario for Breece Holl
it would definitely be a worst case scenario for RJ.

Speaker 3 (36:09):
Harvey.

Speaker 5 (36:09):
If the Broncos decided they're not going to mess around
and just go out and get Breee. So I think
there is a chance that RJ. Harvey loses dynasty value
as a result of some other acquisition the Broncos make.
And I just I was kind of underwhelmed by what
we saw from him his rookie year, and yet because
the Broncos played so deep into the playoffs, I think RJ.

(36:32):
Harvey is kind of fresh in everyone's mind, and he
was featured by that time, just sort of by default,
because I don't think, you know, there was a lot
of confidence in Tyler Bidey or Julia McLoughlin. So I
don't know. I'm thinking RJ. Harvey is a cell right now,
more of a cell than a hold.

Speaker 1 (36:54):
Harvey is RB fifteen in consensus, Debrow has him up
at RB eleven, so he does have him inside the twelve.

Speaker 2 (37:02):
Where do you have him fits.

Speaker 5 (37:04):
I have got him at again, this is including the rookies.

Speaker 1 (37:12):
Fifteen, so in line with consensus, but obviously behind behind
de Bro. Yeah, and I could make a care like
I've got him ahead of Christian McCaffrey, but obviously we
know the deal with McCaffrey. Like a year or two
left in his window. But it's gonna be a really
good year or.

Speaker 3 (37:31):
Two if he stays healthy, obviously.

Speaker 1 (37:33):
Yeah, Bogwin, what do you think about Harvey?

Speaker 6 (37:36):
I have Harvey at seventeen, so I'm I was surprised
to see that I was below consensus on him. But
I do I think that, you know, it's We've weirdly
seen a lot of like you know, free agent discussion
for running backs to Denver. We've I've seen a lot
of like mock drafts where they're taking like EMMITTT Johnson
or somebody later as well to eat in. If Breesce

(37:59):
Hall went to if Breeze Hall went to Denver, he
would bury RJ.

Speaker 4 (38:03):
Harvey.

Speaker 6 (38:04):
There would be there would be no room for Harvey
to be getting like even third downs. He would be
strictly change of pace. So I do think that is
a scenario that could happen. Because they're looking for weapons.
I think the Broncos need to focus more on pass
catchers than running backs. So I do think Harvey's gonna
end up being the guy here. But I do think
he's kind of teetering onto is he going to push

(38:25):
into that elite level. There's just no way I could
get him up to an RB one right now, like
deepro has them.

Speaker 4 (38:30):
I just can't get there.

Speaker 6 (38:31):
So I still hold out a little hope for him,
probably a little bit more than fits, but obviously coming
in below ECR, I'm just not quite there.

Speaker 1 (38:40):
Would you, guys, rather Harvey or Judkins? They're back to
back in ECR. Obviously both gonna be second year guys.
Judkins in a worse offensive environment and coming off a
really gruesome injury, but did look really good at times
during the season. Again, they're back to back, Bogman, who
do you like better?

Speaker 6 (38:54):
We got good news on Judkins' injury. He is supposed
to recover fully and be ready for opening here, so
I think he's going to be okay.

Speaker 4 (39:02):
I'm much rather have Chudkins. Not really a question for.

Speaker 3 (39:05):
Me fits Judkins.

Speaker 5 (39:08):
Even though there's not a team whose offensive line is
in worse shape than the Browns. They're all free agents,
every starter or about to retire, Like yeah, Joel Antonio,
but it can't get worse, right, Like, I think you
could play five rookies on that line, he'd be better
than it was last year.

Speaker 1 (39:25):
Mike.

Speaker 3 (39:25):
They're going to play at least one I mean.

Speaker 1 (39:27):
I mean, we said that about the Texans going into
last year, like it can't be worse than the year before.
They made changes and it was pretty much just as best.
I wouldn't put anything past the Browns. Yeah, all right, Bog,
But let's go to your first self.

Speaker 4 (39:40):
I'm gonna say.

Speaker 6 (39:40):
Ken Walker here, which kind of even surprises myself.

Speaker 2 (39:44):
This raised an eyebrow for.

Speaker 6 (39:45):
Me because I've always kind of been the ken Walker Stan.
He just had the enormous postseason and all that. But
you know, Fitz put this in my head and I
cannot get past it. He's going back to Seattle. I'm
just I think that he is going to resign there.
I mean, you heard Schnyder talk about it yesterday during
the parade. He was trying to get him to negotiate

(40:06):
while they were all drinking out of red coat solo cups.
He said, look, nothing counts when we're drinking here. So
I think he wants to be back to Seattle. But
I think even with the positivity and even though he
is one of the best running backs in the NFL,
and I will absolutely stand by that no matter what,
he has a lengthy injury history and this is the
first year, he made it to the end of the season,

(40:27):
so I do think if he does leave Seattle, so
let's give him a longer runway for more carries and
all that. I think he's not very likely to get
third downs because of his injury history. You want to
take him off the field a little bit more. His
pass blocking has been not very good and last season
he was thirty seventh in pass snaps among running backs.

(40:48):
So I just I don't see him, even if he
goes somewhere, getting the type of usage to make him
one of those upper echelon running backs because of his
injury history. And I think we're all a little Pollyanna
coming off the Super Bowl. He looked great, That offensive
line looked awesome. Not trying to sit here and knock
Ken Walker's talent, He's one of the five best rbs

(41:09):
in the NFL in my opinion. I just don't know
if he can make it through a season again like
this without help. And he got it this year, so
I think he's gonna stick in Seattle. I think they're
gonna end up paying him because of the Sharbonne injury,
and I think it's gonna be a lot like it
was this year during the regular season.

Speaker 2 (41:27):
Assuming he stays in Seattle. We also don't know really
what the offense is gonna.

Speaker 1 (41:30):
Look like with Clint Kubiak, you know, leaving for a
head coaching job, so there is a little more uncertainty
there as well. Yeah, what do you think, Bogman before
before I set it to fits, what's the right price?
Because like I think you coming off of this postseason
run like Super Bowl MVP only twenty five years old,
some you know thought of you could at least paint

(41:50):
the picture of gonna have a more of an opportunity
next season, even if you don't believe that.

Speaker 2 (41:54):
What kind of price do you think you could get?

Speaker 1 (41:56):
You could get a first round pick, like I think
pretty clearly, how much more than that do you think
you could get.

Speaker 6 (42:01):
I think you need like it'd be first round plus
or like even a first round in next year plus
something for this year, I think is probably what the
going rate for ken Walker is going to be because
of the you know, potential for upside of him being
a UFA right now. So I think you need to
either get into those top five or six picks in

(42:21):
this draft or you need to get a first rounder
for next year, and an add on attack on whether
it's a pick, whether it's maybe you need a wide
receiver for depth, maybe you need you know, that backup
quarterback you haven't had for a while. Whatever it is,
it's going to be a first round plus fits.

Speaker 1 (42:39):
If you're a rebuilder, probably makes a lot of sense
to move Walker. If you're a contender, probably makes sense
not to, just because it's hard to find good running backs.
If you're kind of in the middle, like you know,
borderline playoff contender, not sure which direction to go, what
would it take for you to move Walker.

Speaker 5 (42:53):
Mid first if I wasn't pretending, Yeah, and just Apple's
an orange is here. But in a vacuum, would you
guys rather have Kenneth Walker or DeVante Smith?

Speaker 1 (43:09):
I think I'd rather in a vacuum obviously agnostic of position,
positional need, I think I'd.

Speaker 2 (43:14):
Rather take the swing on Walker. But I think it's
a good question.

Speaker 6 (43:17):
Pretty close, right, Yeah, I think I'd rather have Davante
because wide receivers last longer, just in a vacuum.

Speaker 5 (43:23):
Yeah, yeah, So yeah, Walker is interesting. I mean, I
talent versus situation. If he does go back to Seattle,
I know he had that fantastic runout.

Speaker 3 (43:34):
At the end of the season. And one of the.

Speaker 5 (43:36):
Things, remember how everyone wondered whether he could catch passes
coming out of Michigan State, where he was never asked
to catch any passes. I mean, I made a lot
of money betting the overs on Kenneth Walker receiving art.
He had a playoff run like he hit it every time,
and we give him.

Speaker 4 (43:51):
A screen pass, He'll make guys mess.

Speaker 5 (43:53):
Right, right, he is right, he is so killer After now,
I don't think he's going to be the guy who's
going to run like wheel routes, for you can catch
the ball twenty yards downfield.

Speaker 3 (44:02):
But as far as.

Speaker 5 (44:03):
Being like dangerous on little screens and swing passes, absolutely
can be a little east west at times, which I'm
sure can frustrate offensive coordinators for not keeping the offense
and schedule sometimes when he's taken a five yard loss
on first down. But man, he is really good. Showed
it in the playoffs. The only thing is, like ask

(44:23):
anyone who they were never really handcuffs, But ask anyone
who's tried to handcuff Kenneth Walker and Zach Sharbonay this year.

Speaker 3 (44:32):
That was a freaking nightmare.

Speaker 5 (44:34):
If you had that situation, like I had those guys
in a best ball league, like in a redraft best
ball league, and it was fine because like I'd always
have the right one no matter what. But if you
had to manage that and pick which one to start
every week, you were pulling your hair out by about
early December because that was just a nightmare from week
to week. And I'm worried it could be the same

(44:54):
thing again after Sharbonay gets back from his injury, whenever
that might be.

Speaker 2 (45:00):
Did you say, fits, where do you have him ranked?

Speaker 3 (45:03):
I've got him like nineteen.

Speaker 6 (45:06):
That's one spot below consensus. I have him at eighteen.
I have him at consensus, and I'm saying to sell him.

Speaker 3 (45:12):
Yeah, like.

Speaker 5 (45:14):
I'm putting him one spot ahead of uh, Like I've
dropped r J. Harvey and I realized I'd rather a
Blalker than r J Harvey.

Speaker 6 (45:22):
I say, like, maybe don't trade him because where I
have him is right on top of ECR. But you
need to at least float him because there might be
someone that just way overvalues him right now.

Speaker 4 (45:34):
So I think that's kind of the point.

Speaker 2 (45:36):
Yeah, I think that's a good call.

Speaker 1 (45:38):
Like sometimes I always say sell it just means like being
open to a conversation of selling as opposed to like,
you know, sell it all costs. What do you think
fits about Walker versus Jacob's Given the age difference, Jacobs
is twenty eight as a running back, He's had a
lot of usage.

Speaker 2 (45:52):
Walker still just twenty five, hasn't had as much usage.

Speaker 5 (45:55):
I just feel so much more comfortable with Josh shake
of situation, clear workhorse.

Speaker 3 (46:03):
Again.

Speaker 5 (46:03):
I mean, I can't emphasize like this is why Bogman
is so spot on making him a sell. This dude
was just the Super Bowl MVP and looked sensational against
a great Patriots run defense that whenever.

Speaker 3 (46:17):
They had had Milton Williams no running back.

Speaker 5 (46:20):
When the Patriots had Milton Williams and Roberts Plaine both
healthy had run for more than fifty eight yards against
the Patriots in fourteen games this year, and Kenneth Walker
shredded them in the Super Bowl.

Speaker 6 (46:32):
So talent is there, but you know, keeping him on
the field is tough, and I think, I honestly think
the difference between Ken Walker and Josh Jacobs is just
the fact that we know Josh Shacobs can take the
pounding and he'll play GIMPI right, Ken Walker just hasn't
done that in the past. He's never been able to
take a heavy workload like that, and if he is heard,

(46:52):
he's not playing through it.

Speaker 5 (46:54):
So there was never any question about whether you wanted
to start Josh Jacobs or Emmanuel Wilson, even though I
think they're was one game where like Wilson unexpectedly got
more work than Jacobs, But like, I just can't emphasize
enough how much frustration people who had to make that
choice were feeling, and how kneecapped the Kenneth Walker investors

(47:17):
felt by the zach sharbonay Go line poaching throughout the season.

Speaker 1 (47:21):
Yeah, by the way, apologies, if anybody could hear my
dog freaking out my doorbell just rank so dare.

Speaker 4 (47:28):
They ring the doorbell?

Speaker 1 (47:30):
My dog is very good about being pretty quiet. He's
a pretty mellow dog. He is not vocal, but when
the doorbell rings.

Speaker 6 (47:36):
The first time we heard him, so loses his mind.
So yeah, thanks for power through that fits. Let's go
to your next cell.

Speaker 3 (47:44):
It's what he marks.

Speaker 5 (47:46):
And he was just badly miscast as a workhorse running
back in his rookie season, averaged three point six yards
per carry ranked fiftieth in yards after contact per attempt
among running backs with the lead, eighty carries just wasn't
very good. And I always Marx was cut out to
be a third down back. He is a natural pass

(48:10):
catcher who was sort of forced into this early down roll.
And there's no doubt in my mind the Texans are
going to go out and acquire an early down back
and maybe it's Brice Hall, like you can count on
that they are going to get someone for that role,
and Marx is going to have a very difference and
I think less substantial role in twenty twenty six. So

(48:31):
for the people who kind of see him as like
the Texans running back, I think that's not the right
way to look at him. And I would try to
sell him now, Like I just don't think he's I
would be willing to bet good money that Woody Marks
has fewer touches in twenty twenty six than he had
in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1 (48:49):
Yeah, bog Man, I think was it you who had
him as a player you can't figure out on last
week's episode where we did that. Yeah, yeah, Well, to
determine value, what is going on with the Texans right, Like,
and it's not just what he marks, it's Joe Mixon
is still on that roster, right, Like, what's going on
with him?

Speaker 4 (49:09):
Specifically? Is he done? Uh?

Speaker 6 (49:12):
Did he actually shoot himself in the foot? I think
those rumors are kind of dead at this point, but like,
what is going on with him? Is he going to
be back? He's probably an easy cut. And then would
they spend the money on Brees Hall knowing that you know,
this line is the first thing that obviously needs to
be fixed, right, So I don't know if they're going
to spend the money at running back, But I do

(49:32):
think there are so many rbs in this draft class
that you know, who is better ticketed to end up
in Houston than Engineerian Price or Kate tron Allen.

Speaker 5 (49:43):
Right, I was gonna say, if they get k tron
Allen in the third round, who do you think favored
to be the early down back?

Speaker 6 (49:48):
It's not one hundred and fifty percent. It is not
what he marks. And we even heard, uh, you know,
through the grapevine of the Texans out that they still
viewed Woody Marks as a third down back even when
he was carrying a bigger workload for them. I do
think that he showed he can be more than just
a third down back, but I think that is the

(50:08):
role that he needs to have in his career. So
I've got him at RB thirty. I know is ECR.
I believe it's twenty seven. So I'm obviously a little
bit low on him.

Speaker 1 (50:17):
I've made the comp before, and it's not as a player,
but just in terms of the situation to Tyler Al's year.
Like when you're a Day three pick, even if you
have a good rookie season, it's hard to feel comfortable
because the team is there's not an investment into you
where they can't go and draft a guy early. Now,
I don't think, you know, the Texans are going to
draft like the equivalent to b Jon Robinson, But like
I said, if they take a Day two back, they're

(50:40):
probably going to get the opportunity here, or maybe they
you know, sign Breeze Hall or whatever it is. So
so yeah, I think this is a good call here, Bogman.
Let's go to your next cell. We got one more
running back on the list.

Speaker 6 (50:51):
Yeah, I'm gonna say DeAndre Swift VCR is currently twenty three.
I have met twenty eight. He's twenty seven. He was
great this year. So this is why I want to
sell him is because he's coming off a killer season.
He's twenty seven, and he would provide not that the
Bears need more cap space, but he is their third
highest like cap savings. If they want to cut someone,

(51:13):
they're definitely gotting Jermaine Edmonds. He's going to save them
fifteen million. I think Cole Comet would save them eight.
He would save them about seven and a half. And
we really did see Kyle Manong guy come on at
the end of the season, right, and I think he
could easily take first and second downs and kind of
push DeAndre Swift to a third downback, kind of like
Austin Eckler near the end of his career here where

(51:34):
he was just mainly a third down back instead of
a complete workhorse. I think that's how DeAndre Swift's career is.

Speaker 4 (51:40):
Going to end up winding down.

Speaker 3 (51:42):
Right.

Speaker 4 (51:42):
I do think that he's still good.

Speaker 6 (51:44):
He showed it in a great offense this year with
the Bears, but he's a UFA after this season. He's
twenty seven. He could get cut before the season starts.
I don't think they're gonna do that. Because he's coming
off such a good year, and I don't know that
you want to give Kamanong Guy all of that responsibility
so quick into his career as a you know later pick.
As you mentioned Worm, those guys are always kind of

(52:05):
up in the air. But I think Managuy showed enough,
and I think that DeAndre Swift is going to start
slowing down now, and I think it's just a natural
progression for him to flip to a third down only
type of role pretty soon here. So I think right
now is peak time coming off a good year to
sell DeAndre Swift, because I think you can get more
than what he's worth because his ZCR is still I mean,

(52:27):
this is low for where he finished. I think he
was fifteenth in points and his ZCR is twenty three
right now, So I, like most other people, it's just
not buying into DeAndre Swift.

Speaker 1 (52:38):
Fitz, do you anticipate Mnong Guy overtaking Swift's in this backfield?

Speaker 2 (52:43):
Assume me no other additions.

Speaker 5 (52:46):
I mean, I have Mananguy ranked higher in dynasty for
sure because of the age. I don't know if that
happens this year, but I mean, you know, Bogman and
I are president and treasurer of the Kyle Manan Guy
Fan Club.

Speaker 3 (53:01):
And you know, like he was really good, and I
think he.

Speaker 5 (53:05):
Was better as a pass catcher than we would have
expected because he did not show a lot of pass
catching ability when he was at Rutgers, and he showed
them this year. So I think they're really interchangeable, and
like I think they're kind of equally good. So I
think my best guess is that it's still something really

(53:25):
close to fifty to fifty next year.

Speaker 1 (53:29):
You guys aren't the only ones in that fan club.
Eric sand and I talked a lot. We were the
Kyle Manong guys last year. As we put it on
our show, we're big fans too. Wide receiver from each
of you for the sales fits who's years.

Speaker 5 (53:43):
This one hurts me a little because I've championed this
guy for quite a while. It's Khalil Shakir. But you know,
you got to no one hold him and no one
to fold them. And I kind of championed him his
first couple of years when he hadn't done all that much.
But now in his third and fourth season, Khalil Shakir
has had seventy six and seventy two receptions. But despite

(54:06):
that catch volume, only eight hundred and twenty one yards
in twenty twenty four seven hundred and nineteen yards last year.
He's never scored more than four touchdowns in a single year.
I just think he's kind of capped by what he
can do and the reason to sell before free agency
and the draft, the Bills are going to add.

Speaker 3 (54:25):
More firepower wide receiver.

Speaker 5 (54:27):
There's there's no question about it, Like they being cannot
continue to neglect that position any longer. It's going to
be reduced target volume for Shakir, and Shakir needs target
volume because he's not a big play guy and not
a prolific touchdown score.

Speaker 1 (54:43):
I think the best way to frame Shakir as a
cell is like, we think he's a good player, but yep,
he hasn't really missed time. He's played with an MVP
quarterback in an offense that does not have a ton
of target competition, and he has still never finished higher
the wide receiver forty in a season. Like if you
put all those facts together, it's just really hard to
build a case of any kind of ceiling here entering

(55:04):
year five and beyond, Bogman, do you see Shakir.

Speaker 2 (55:07):
A similar way. He's ranked.

Speaker 1 (55:08):
I think it's a wide receiver forty forty four in
Dynasty consensus rankings.

Speaker 6 (55:13):
I'm a little higher than that. I have him at forty,
but I'm definitely in the bucket of like, I don't
really know how to separate this this group of wide receivers,
and I think with Shakir he could improve, but it's
such a narrow window he would have to be. He
would have to be the guy that gets open more

(55:33):
because you know, AJ Brown came in and sorted rolling
coverage towards him, right, so you give him more one
on ones with slot guys or whatever, and he starts
to kind of be that secondary guy so he gets
open and he can create more space that way. It's
such a narrow window of improved value for a guy
like this that should be, you know, for all intents

(55:54):
and purposes, the number one with one of the better
quarterbacks in the league.

Speaker 4 (55:57):
We just haven't seen it.

Speaker 6 (55:59):
So it's hard to expect him to improve if someone
is there to take more of the target share. So
it's just such a shallow window for him to improve
on where he is. I don't really lower him, but
I'm definitely not raising him at anywhere near a wide receiver.

Speaker 4 (56:14):
Three.

Speaker 5 (56:15):
Let me give you guys an either or and I
can't wait to see how Bogman answers this. Khalil Shakir
or ad Ni Mitchell polar opposite players.

Speaker 4 (56:25):
Uh yeah, I still I have Shakir over ad Nin.

Speaker 1 (56:30):
I think if I'm a contender, I'd rather have Shakir
and just have like quality depth I know is going
to be at least pretty good. If I'm a rebuilder,
I just want to take swings on upside.

Speaker 2 (56:39):
It's easily Mitchell.

Speaker 6 (56:40):
This goes back to this goes back to what my
my buddy Fit says, most leagues are PPR right.

Speaker 4 (56:46):
I think true.

Speaker 6 (56:47):
You know, I think Shakiir is more of a possession
guy than ad and I. Although Ad and I had
a couple of good games, but it was more because
he was the only wide receiver on the team than
it was He's going to be a target hog.

Speaker 5 (56:59):
So right, whether you're taking the you know, the peteing
cavelia swing for the fences or just trying to make
contact and rip a solid single little left, I think.

Speaker 1 (57:11):
Here, yeah, Bogwin, who are you selling cover years?

Speaker 4 (57:15):
Fits?

Speaker 6 (57:16):
Is Christian Watson again. Look, I he was great this year.
I'm not gonna sit here and try to knock his skill.
He looked great, he really did. He's twenty seven. That's
not a killer for a wide receiver, but with his
injury history, I do think that he's probably gonna end
his career in his earlier thirties than his later thirties,
just based on what has already happened with him. He's

(57:38):
in a void contract after this season, So where's he
gonna be beyond Green Bay beyond this season? Because I
don't know specifically. If he gets hurt again this year,
there's just no way the Packers are bringing him back,
so he'd have to go somewhere else. Really strong season
for only ten games, but he did only have one
game over one hundred yards in one game with more
than five catches. So injury prone player, floor player, that

(58:02):
is constantly questionable. It's just gonna be a pass from
me dog right right now. He's thirty six, so he's
like the last wide receiver three. I'm a wide receiver
forty one, so I'm not killing him, but coming off
a good year knowing he's with a good quarterback, I
think his perceived values a little bit higher than the
thirty six that he's ranked in ECR.

Speaker 2 (58:21):
Right now, what do you think fits? Are you on
the side of selling somebody like Watson?

Speaker 5 (58:27):
Not in the least. I totally disagree with Bogman on
this one. I saw a guy who looked like a
star this year and I realized, like, if you think
he's made out of glass, and that's a reasonable assessment.
Although in fairness, like he came back shockingly early from
his tourn he tore.

Speaker 3 (58:47):
His ACL late last year.

Speaker 6 (58:49):
I couldn't believe it. I'll be honest, I was super surprised.
And not only that he came back so fast. They
look so good when he was good.

Speaker 5 (58:56):
When he Yeah, and the Packers are like notoriously conservative
as far as bringing back injured players, and I'm like, oh,
is it is it smart to bring back this particular
player so soon from the torn ACL and was like
impactful from the get go, And I mean his combination
of size and speed.

Speaker 3 (59:14):
And like reliable hands.

Speaker 5 (59:16):
I don't remember really any drops from this past season,
Like I think this guy could be a star, and
I actually think he's underrated in ECR.

Speaker 4 (59:28):
Defense.

Speaker 5 (59:30):
Good hey man, if you got shares in the leagues,
we're in together, bogs.

Speaker 4 (59:34):
I'm buying there's no way I have any shares.

Speaker 1 (59:37):
So he only played ten games last season, and he
still had three top five finishes at the position in
individual games and another top twelve finish, So like he
was hitting at a pretty good rate when he got
back on the field.

Speaker 5 (59:49):
Yeah, and just so I've I've got him ranked wide
receiver thirty four. It's not like I'm way out over
my skis as far as his ranking. I've got him
directly behind Jalen Wattle, Ricky Piersaw, and Jayden Higgins, and
directly out of Casey Concepcion, Xavier Worthy, and Quentin Johnson.

Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
Let me ask you this, bagman, would you like Watson
are Worthy?

Speaker 4 (01:00:16):
I have Watson ahead of Worthy right now because.

Speaker 2 (01:00:18):
Worthy's ahead in ECR.

Speaker 4 (01:00:19):
Yeah, No, I have Actually, I have them.

Speaker 6 (01:00:22):
Actually, I do have Worthy a couple spots ahead, but
I'll put them in that bucket. Put Shakir in there
with them, right, Uh, So I have them in with
like Worthy, Watson, Shakir, whatever is going on with Tyreek Hill,
Matthew Golden, throw him in that group, right, like Alec Pierce.
Where's he gonna end up. I have like a grip

(01:00:43):
of these guys that I'm kind of like, I would
rather have them as my bench wide receivers, so I
have them listed as wide receiver fours instead of wide
receiver threes, and I think.

Speaker 4 (01:00:52):
They're being viewed as more than that a lot.

Speaker 5 (01:00:54):
Capecifically Watson, I can't get on board with having Shakier
in this same bucket. Like, even if I knew Christian
Watson was only going to play ten games in twenty
twenty six, I would rather have Christian Watson than Khalil Shaker.
I know I'm getting like good point totals and then
those ten games.

Speaker 4 (01:01:10):
Look, I understand that that outlook.

Speaker 6 (01:01:12):
I just Christian Watson frustrates me, not just because of
the games that he misses, but the game that he's
questionable as well, because even this year when he was healthy,
he still only played ten games, and he was questionable
for a lot of the games that he was in.
He's just a frustrating player to roster and know when
to start properly. And it's PPR and he's a big
play type of guy, right, He's not going to be

(01:01:33):
the dude that gets ten targets a game most of
the time. I think he had one game with eleven
targets this year in his ten, so that was his
only double digit one. He's just for me. He's a
frustrating player to roster, and I don't I just don't
want to have him.

Speaker 4 (01:01:46):
And I think his values is high right now because
he did look good fits.

Speaker 6 (01:01:49):
That's why I think it's a good time to sell.

Speaker 1 (01:01:52):
I feel like the wide receiver thirty six ranking and
ECR is baking in some of those frustrations because the
ceiling is higher than that when he's on, like you mentioned,
like Matthew gold Like, I think he's easily the Green
Bay wide receiver. I would want to roster, you know,
more than Golden or Read for me personally, given those
individual game upside. I want to ask you guys a

(01:02:13):
quick question before you get out of here. While we
were recording this, a listener to the show DMed me
a Dynasty related question and it's a very quick one.

Speaker 2 (01:02:20):
So I just want to throw your guys away.

Speaker 1 (01:02:22):
He has the one ten in this draft and is
looking to trade into the twenty twenty seven class because
he's a rebuilder.

Speaker 2 (01:02:28):
I answered that very easily.

Speaker 1 (01:02:30):
Like, yes, obviously that's the right move to do, trading
a late first this year for really any twenty twenty
seven first that you can get. But the question that
he followed up with that I want to ask you guys,
is does it make more sense to try and trade
away the one ten now for a twenty twenty seven
first or do you think he could get more for
it if we wait until the actual rookie draft and
he's on the clock and you know, somebody has a

(01:02:51):
guy that falls that they want to trade up for.
Essentially we agree he should make this trade. Do you
think it makes more sense to do it now, just
get it while you can, or kind of wait and
see if maybe a scarcity of a position or somebody
as a player that falls kind of gets a little
bit more of a price for there. What do you think, Bogman,
I think after the combine, because I think you're gonna
see a couple more names pop up after the combine

(01:03:12):
with good ras scores crazy forty times whatever it is, right,
So I think that is when the juices start flowing
for people to really start picking out the guys that
they are going to want in this class. So I think,
wait a couple of weeks, wait until after the combine
when we get some of those eye popping numbers from
some of these guys and they start moving up boards,
because then that takes the six guys that we know

(01:03:33):
are going to be pretty good, six, seven, however you
want to say it, and then we can stretch.

Speaker 4 (01:03:38):
Oh man, I did it again, my bad one.

Speaker 6 (01:03:39):
Yeah, but then we can I saw your smirk. But
then we can stretch it out, and I think it's
going to be more like ten or eleven guys, because
there's gonna be some names that pop up during the
combine that kind of start to start to be on
people's radars and start to move up boards.

Speaker 2 (01:03:55):
I laughed, not because you said it, because you said,
however you want to say it. I'm like, yeah, it's
like the spot fifth. Do you agree after the combine?

Speaker 3 (01:04:03):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:04:03):
Bogman's answer was outstanding for that right now, And we
talked about this on.

Speaker 3 (01:04:07):
Our live stream yesterday.

Speaker 5 (01:04:08):
Worm like, my enthusiasm for the first round only goes
to about seven or eight right now, like that Casey Concepcion,
Kenyan Sadik territory. But after the combine, like some running back,
maybe two of them are going to test like champs
and solidify their status as late first round. Or Malachi
Fields might come in at six foot four and run

(01:04:30):
some sick forty time that just has people drooling over
themselves to draft him.

Speaker 3 (01:04:36):
Like there are gonna be some guys who.

Speaker 5 (01:04:38):
Wet our appetites a little bit with their combine performance,
and that might make the later first round picks a
lot more attractive than they are right now.

Speaker 2 (01:04:48):
So that is our answer to the timing.

Speaker 1 (01:04:50):
Obviously, we all very strongly agree with making a trade
in the first place, but maybe timing it out after
the combine. Shouts to Scott for sending in that question.
We appreciate him listening. Thanks everybody else for listening to
to this episode of Players to Buy or Sell before
NFL Free Agency, Forfeits and Bogman, I'm Ryan warmly.

Speaker 2 (01:05:07):
Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you next time.

Speaker 1 (01:05:08):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at
Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com slash Fantasy Pros

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Hosts And Creators

Pat Fitzmaurice

Scott Bogman

Popular Podcasts

Betrayal Season 5

Stuff You Should Know

Dateline NBC

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}Dynasty Trade Candidates: Buy or Sell These Players Ahead of Free Agency (Ep. 290)