The Biggest Ranking Risers in 2026 (Ep. 1143)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros MLB. This
is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I am Chris Welsh. That
is Joe Alrico. We are not in the same room
for this week, but what we are here to do
is talk about twenty twenty six rank risers. So what
exactly does that mean. We are looking at players that
have taken some significant rank jumps from twenty five to

(00:28):
twenty six that if maybe you haven't been deep in
the fantasy baseball streets, it might surprise you might be
surprised based off of some early ADPs that are floating
out there where some of these players are going and
where some of these players are ranked, for good or
for worse. We are going to have those discussions, and
mister Joe Rico, we are going to be going positionally.
So we got a lot of players to cover. But

(00:49):
it is good to see you, even though it is
not in person like our last live episode.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
There's nothing like doing a show in person in front
of the live studio audience of I think we got
up to twelve or fifteen thousand people in the studio audience.

Speaker 3 (01:01):
Now I'm kidding, it was It was a great show.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
Though areas well the fifteen maybe not thousand.

Speaker 3 (01:06):
Yeah, it's a great time every year.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
If you guys want to come out next year, see
us do a show, hang out at the bar, go
to some panels, go to some baseball games. It is
the best weekend of the year. Sad to be back,
but happy to be talking baseball again. We're really ramping
things up BlackBook chapters or in the rear view, So
let's get it going.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
My friend and a good thing about the First Pitch
Conference and everything. It kind of kicks off a lot
of there's a lot of early season draft there's tons
of draft discussion, and it helps the early curation of
like what ADPs are going to end up looking like.
So in this episode, we're going to be referencing some
of the NFBC ADPs, which are like the earliest of
early drafts. Obviously, we're going to tell you a little

(01:44):
bit later about why fantasy pros are going to be
able to help you out in the MLB season with
the Draft Wizard. But you know, we got to get
all the things open up and getting rocking. NFBC are
the first collection of drafts, and it kind of gives
us an insight not only into like a obviously where
we are going to rank players that is its own thing,
but where players are going versus kind of like the
higher stakes, the really really early adopters of fantasy baseball,

(02:07):
and those ADPs are going to probably give a little
narrative to what ranks are going to look like. So again,
these are the twenty twenty six rank risers. Players that
have made some significant jumps, maybe as a surprise to you,
maybe some not so much, whether it is their overall
or it is positionally where they're at, because there are
some surprising ones. So as you said, let's jump into it,

(02:31):
let's start looking at some of the rank risers, and
we will start with catchers. And there is no catcher
to talk about other than cal Rally at the very top.
It's very funny. Actually, during the AFL, I had a
conversation with the Scottsdale Scorpions manager, former catcher Renee Rivera.
We were discussing the day the MVPs were awarded. Shoheo
Tani had just got the award. I went to Renee

(02:52):
because he asked, He's like, who do you think is
going to win? And I'm like, I think it's Cal
and as a catcher, he said, I think Judge I
was like, WHOA, really all the offensive numbers and I'm like,
what about defensive war And he kind of simplistically said,
He's like, he didn't win a Gold Glove. And at
the end of the day, it's hard to win, you know,
with the sub average, with a sub two fifty average.

(03:13):
But we're not playing in those streets here. We're not
playing in the you know, the MVP award case. We're
playing in the fantasy streets where Cal Rawley as a catcher.
As a catcher, had almost six hundred at bats, sixty homers,
also stole fourteen bases, a three point fifty nine OBP,
which laid him up there pretty solid. One hundred and
ten runs, one hundred and twenty five RBI. Those are

(03:37):
three elite categories, almost elite for a catcher in stolen bases,
a suboptimal batting average. But maybe the kind of most
undertalked about piece of this is he played like an
everyday regular because of some of that DH was going
out there, so he had significant at bats. He comes
in with an eighty p early on top twenty eighteen overall.

(03:58):
So the question to you, Jo Rico, Is cal Raley
going to be worth this early rank rise in ADP
that's being put out there.

Speaker 2 (04:06):
I can't see it, And I think I should preface
this by saying NFBC leagues or two catch or four mats,
and I think a lot of people are playing with
one catcher, so that will naturally push the prices up
a little bit. But even in casual leagues, I could
see cal Rawley being a second round pick, and heck,
maybe even a first round pick. Some of the time
you can see minimum and maximum pick on the NFBC.
He's got as high as pick six, so there are

(04:26):
people willing to take him in the first round. I
can kind of get behind the logic in two catcher leagues,
but honestly, I don't even think I can, because this
is a massive career year. And whenever guys go off
and have these explosive seasons. Matt Olson from a couple
of years ago comes to mind when he was a
number two Fantasy player. There's a lot of examples of
guys just having one massive season expecting the repeat is

(04:49):
probably not wise. Cal Rawley could do exactly what he
did in twenty twenty four Again, he could did thirty
four homers, score seventy five times, drive in one hundred runs,
and it would be a very good year for him,
and it would still be very disappointing. With the second
round ADP, I think you have to expect some regression.
Could he hit forty or fifty home runs again? He could,
but you have to consider he's in a bad ballpark.

(05:10):
That is something that will impact him at least a
little bit. Right if he was playing in Cincinnati or Colorado,
that sixty home run total might have been up to
seventy home runs. But being in Seattle does curb your
offensive upside a little bit. I know it didn't this
past season, but if you're projecting going forward, especially with
the second round pick, cal Rawly just feels too expensive
for me.

Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah, and I think it's a great point as should
be noted because we're only going to do one other
catcher here is NFBC does play up catchers, of course.
Is that cal Rawley, though, is the one exception to
the rule where he is the guy that is going
in the second round. I did an early draft on
in this league. Everywhere I've seen like he is going
on the back end of second rounds Now, it might

(05:49):
not be eighteen. You know, if you're playing in a
fifteen team league, it might be in the mid twenties.
But people are making the commitment to it. And I
think he does have an advantage in that he plays
a massive amount of games. He's going to hit a
bunch of homers. He's going to hit in the middle
of the lineup. You know, they brought Naylor back the
things like you mentioned. Though, to be consider thirty two
of his homers did come on the road. He hit
us considerably worse at home. He ended up hitting only

(06:12):
where did it go?

Speaker 3 (06:13):
I just had it.

Speaker 1 (06:14):
He ended up hitting two twenty five versus two sixty
seven home versus road splits. It's a really suppressive offensive ballpark.
It's just a really big price to pay for a catcher.
I can kind of buy into some of it, even
in single catcher formats because from the Joe would say
an RPV standpoint, But you just look an evaluation, he

(06:35):
is so much better than the next player. You have that,
but you're gonna have to come to terms with that.
This is a year where catchers are not going to
come at a cheaper cost, even in singular catcher leagues,
cal rally has raised the bar and the next guy
on the list is another one of those. Because the
thing we've always talked about is we're trying to pinpoint
players that either can positionally stay out there longer. It's

(06:56):
the guys that only play, you know, one hundred and
ten or fifteen games at hole this back in the valuation,
another one of those was Ben Rice. Ben Rice coming
in as the second rank riser here and ADP inside
the top one hundred. Sighting though that this is like
a two catcher format, so he's going to be pushed
up a little bit. Ben Rice last year hit twenty

(07:16):
six homers, two fifty five OBP was okay, seventy four runs,
but this is in less than five hundred at bats,
and he made a pretty big move to being catcher
while also being a first baseman. Regardless of where he plays.
The only thing that we care about is if he
cannot be in any type of a platoon and he
can have significant at bats, but he's gonna have some

(07:38):
position eligibility. He's a savant king on the hitting profile,
is Ben Rice a little bit more your speed? And
what do you think about him as a rank riser.
There could be upwards in single catcher leagues of like
three to four catchers, which I don't like. Nobody tell
Casey Bubba, But is Ben Rice one of those that
you can stomach for his new cost?

Speaker 2 (07:56):
Yeah, Ben Rice is part of the reason why I
don't see myself taking Cay, not just Ben Rice. But
there are a lot of great catchers on the rise
that we'll talk about over the next few months. Augustine Ramirez,
Drake Baldwin. You can buy back in on Adley Rutchman,
Samuel Bissaio.

Speaker 3 (08:09):
Kyle Teel.

Speaker 2 (08:10):
Catcher is deeper than it's ever been and Ben Rice,
you know, you might see, oh, he's the fifth catcher
off the board, might give you some pause. It is
absolutely deserved. You can kind of relate it to what
Wilson Contreras had going for him last year, where he
has catcher eligibility, he's going to be playing first base,
You're gonna probably get five hundred and fifty to six
hundred plate appearances. And the data for Ben Rice was
just off the charts right twenty six home runs, especially

(08:31):
in the second half. Ben Rice really took off, but
was not overmatched at the plate at all, eighteen percent
strikeout rate, nine percent walk rate. The one thirty three
WRC plus really does stand out because that was the
same number that Jose Ramirez had. It was better than Tattoos,
so it was better than Harper, it was better than
Bobby Witt Junior.

Speaker 3 (08:48):
Ben Rice.

Speaker 2 (08:49):
I'm not saying he's better hitterer than those guys going forward,
but that shows you the ceiling that he has a
fifteen percent barrel rate, a fifty five percent heart hit rate.
He is such a polished hitter, and you know I
love If I'm speaking about a Yankee with this type
of praise, you know I must love them. He makes
a ton of contact in the zone. He does not chase,
he does not swing and miss a lot.

Speaker 3 (09:07):
He's a star. I think Ben Rice is a star.

Speaker 2 (09:09):
And honestly, if he finishes the number one or two
catcher next year, I wouldn't be surprised by it.

Speaker 1 (09:14):
I wouldn't either. I do got to say, though, you know,
if you want to we're doing ranked risers. If you
want to look at somebody that has fallen in the ranks.
One of the reasons I just can't buy the early cost.
I mean and again NFPC is a little bit skewed
because of the two catcher thing. But there are seven
catchers inside the top one hundred. There's legitimately though, I
think four to five of those could go inside the
top one hundred. And that ends with ben Rice. Ben

(09:36):
Rice is the fifth catcher ranked catcher, so that's something
in the rank rising you need to know. He's a
top five catcher in here. I think they all had
in single catcher to go. But is Ali Richmond Aliy
Richmond has fallen to the eleventh catcher on this list.
There's trade rumors. I know Sammy Besio is out there,
but and by the way, Besio comes in at thirteen.
I think catchers are too plentiful and when the cost

(09:59):
is too rich, I'm not buying a lot of the
rank rising. But get used to it, because yes, you're
going to see William Contreras up there. But the top five,
they're new names. Cal Raley, Sheyle, Angeliers, Hunter Goodman, ben Rice.
Those are your new big in catchers that you're going
to be paying a big price on. Speaking of a
big price, let's move to first base rank risers, and

(10:19):
we are going big right out the Gates because it's
time for you to know and understand that, ladies and gentlemen,
Nick Kurtz is going to go off as the first
first baseman in a majority of leagues. I don't want
to say in every single league, because I think there
are circumstances where as we're recording this, you know, maybe
Pete Alonso could go to a destination that changes people's minds,

(10:41):
Vladimir Guerrero in general. But Nick Kurtz is coming off
of a Rookie of the Year season that blew our
minds just barely over four hundred bats, hit thirty six
homers with a two ninety average, a three eighty plus OBP.
And you want to talk about the sliders of baseball Savant,
it's through the roof, top two percentile of the league

(11:01):
barrel percentage and over fifty percent hard hit rate. The
dude swings the bat at one of the fastest paces
in all of baseball and by the way, top ten
percentile in walks. He's a monster in that minor league
ballpark as well. He is taken the top spot, so
like cal Raley being the new number one catcher, a

(11:22):
top sixteen, seventeen, top fifteen. Let's say that's a first
round pick in a roto league. Do you buy this
new found rank rising value of Nick Kurtz.

Speaker 2 (11:33):
I think this is my least favorite price of the
year to this point, and it's nothing really against Nick Kurtz,
but the market has lost its mind. Everything you said
I agree on. In terms of the data, a lot
of it is very impressive. He hits the crap out
of the ball. He was on a close to fifty
home run pace in his rookie season. The park does
help a little bit, but even on the road, Nick
Kurtz was great this year. Where I have pause is

(11:55):
the price he's going ahead of, and not just in
terms of first baseman, but in terms of all players
that he is going ahead of. If you're taking Nick Kurtz,
you're passing up on Kyle Tucker, cam and Narrow Hooley,
Ja Vladdie Chisholm, Kyle Schwarber, Yamamoto. There are so many
stars that are going directly behind him. I just can't
see myself taking a guy who is at best a

(12:17):
four category contributor. He's not going to steal basis. But
I also think the batting average is not going to
be as high as it was this year. He was
two ninety with a three sixty four Babbitt. The Steamer
projections have him at two fifty eight. I think that's
about right, if not even a little bit bullish. I
think Nick Kurtz is probably a two forty to two
to fifty hitter. Can't forget that he struck out thirty
one percent of the time, doesn't have great contact numbers,
sixty seven percent zone contact is not great. I think

(12:40):
that he is going to be a really good hitter.
I think there's a good chance we see thirty home
runs in a two forty batting average from him this year,
which would be really solid, but it's not worth the
first round pick.

Speaker 3 (12:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (12:49):
The thing that's going to open a lot of people's
minds is you mentioned I think you were taking Babbitt
but too forty eight expected batting average. So that's a
significant drop, like almost fifty point drop on what was expected.
He he highly overperformed against fastballs in general, so if
that does tick down. The thing that makes it tough
is like versus Vlad, like he's kind of becoming He's

(13:09):
in this state of like is he Pie Alonso or
is he Lad. You know what I'm saying, like, is
he Vlad with the batting average in the bigger power
or is he no better than Pee Alonso? And you're
paying at the highest price for a young guy like this.
I also hate the strikeout rate. I do think this
is a pretty tough cost here. But he has jumped
up the ranks and taken over the top spot. His

(13:30):
true ADP was sixteen. He comes in around eighteen on
the list, so it's gonna be an early second round pick.
And if you're chasing, as many people have done, moving
away from speed, moving into high end power, this is
where this discussion comes in. We'll talk about obviously the
new third basement or the second third baseman on the list.
You want some elite power, you're gonna have to pay

(13:51):
up for it early on. And that's what Nick Kurtz
not only had, but the projected like where he was
pacing his pacing numbers of like forty five to fifty homers.
It's just we worry about the batting average strikeouts taking
some of that out. But he just like he barrels
a crap out of ball, puts the ball in the air.
Minor league ballpark there's a lot of factors that, like
they butt heads, which one is going to end up

(14:12):
winning that battle, which is a tough one.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
I think a lot of it does come down to vibes,
though this is not like a data driven position to
take Nick Kurtz in the first round. If you're a
projection based person and you look at Steamer, which is
out right now, Vladdy is projected higher than him in
all five categories, with a fifty point advantage in batting average.
So unless you're looking at last year and thinking that
Nick Kurtz can continue to build on this every year,

(14:36):
I'd have a bit of trouble with that. He'd a
one to seventy WRC, plus the other players that had
that number last year, Judge and O'tani if you go
to twenty twenty four, Judge Soto Otani, if you go
to twenty twenty three Otani seeger Akunya, Like, it's very
rare to reach those heights. I think there's a chance
that Nick Kurtz's peak will end up being his rookie season,
which nobody wants to hear. But there's a good chance
he never reaches those heights.

Speaker 3 (14:56):
Again.

Speaker 1 (14:57):
Definitely doesn't want to hear that. By the way, I
will say Latty is the Steamer King though like every
single year he's just like the projection steamer King. Whether
he lives up or not, he always lives in that range. Yeh,
A really fascinating one. The second second basement, we're kind
of covering two players per position. The rank riser that
you're going to have to get to know. This is
a new top twelve starting first basement. So if you

(15:20):
play in a twelve man league, this is a starter
fifteen men league. It's obviously a starter. He comes in
as the twelfth first baseman on the list and ADP
just outside the top one hundred. Michael Busch has flown
up the ranks after hitting thirty four homers at for
stolen bases a two sixty one average. He ended up

(15:41):
having ninety RBI being put in a really good position.
We obviously don't know what this team is going to
look like into the coming year, but we do know
he's going to cost you a first overall spot of
your first basement, a starting spot, a top twelve. And
I would say you got a lot of the similar
names in this. You know, Harper, Olsen, there, Devers, is
now first baseman Vinnie Pasquentino. It's all the same guys,

(16:03):
and then Michael Bush is planted in. There's an argument
to say a thirty five home run essentially a thirty
five home run guy going outside the top one hundred.
When you're chasing for power, you're chasing the power of
Nick Kurtz, and then you're looking at a guy like
Michael Bush who didn't, you know, really come that far
off here has a higher expected batting average, lowered his
strikeout rate this past year, kind of same barrel gets

(16:25):
the ball in the air. There's a lot to like
about Michael Bush. He's rising up ranks. Do you like
the rank rise for him?

Speaker 2 (16:31):
He is so impressive and he's a guy. This happens
every year. I didn't have any shares in twenty twenty five,
so I didn't truly realize how impressive he was. But
strikeout rate was cut significantly for the third consecutive year,
from thirty three to twenty eight down to twenty three.
The WRC plus went from one eighteen to one forty.
He increased the hard hit numbers across the board while

(16:51):
maintaining a seventeen degree launch angle, which is pretty close
to ideal. The barrel went from eleven to seventeen. That's
a huge jump. Now, I was talking about Kurtz's contact
rate seventy six per contact in the zone. Bush is
eighty five percent contact rate in the zone. That's a massive,
massive difference. He does not chase the way you'd expect
for a big power hitter. Twenty three percent O swing
is really good. He's cut the swinging strike rate every year.

(17:13):
He lives in a great lineup. I love Michael Bush.
I really love Michael Bush. I haven't done a full
first base eval yet, but I feel like he's going
to be a pretty big target for me.

Speaker 1 (17:21):
Yeah, pull the ball in the air twenty two percent
of the time, which was on the upper echelont also
didn't have any really big show. He actually underperformed against
fastballs while kind of maintaining what he actually did to
expected numbers. So pull the ball in the air, barrel it.
These are all really really great things with it. If
you've got like aggressive guys like Nico Horner and Peteka
Armstrong in front for RBI opportunities, Michael Bush is going

(17:43):
to be kind of a hidden name. And guess what
he is at the top of the board on the
rank list for first Basement, Second baser coming up. But
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Speaker 1 (18:47):
Second base. Let me start just by telling you, in
the world of rank risers, second base is bo rutal.
If you have not looked into you are going to
see some new stuff. As a matter of fact, there's
a new number one overall second basement. Kaateel Marte has
kind of had that mold for a while this year
according to early ADPs, that has been taken over by

(19:09):
Jazz Chishom. Kateel is still there. There's a group of
some of the players that you know, but there is
a new name on this list, at least from the
top ten perspective, that are going to surprise some people.
Bryce Terrang, Bryce Terrang big stolen bases, started to make
some big moves. As far as his offensive profile, he
is just outside the top fifty, but he is the

(19:31):
third second baseman on the board. Eighteen homers, twenty four
stolen bases. He hit two eighty eight this year. Good
obp almost scored one hundred runs, the hitting profile. It
looked like he changed the profile of who he was
from being like the old Jacob Wilson Luisa Rise like
low barrel, low bats, all that low stuff, and then
he's starting to get the ball in the air more

(19:52):
he hit the ball. He almost doubled his hard hit percentage,
barrel percentage tripled. Bryce Terrang as a third third basement.
Is this a testament to and how bad this is?
Or is his rank rise justified?

Speaker 2 (20:04):
It's kind of both, but Bryce Terrang deserves a lot
of respect. He was the number one second basement in
twenty twenty five and it wasn't even particularly close. When
you like a player raiders twenty two dollars and twenty
cents compared to Jazz at eighteen, even more than a
four dollars difference. That's the same difference between Jazz and
Brandon Lau Jorge Polonko. He was number one by a mile.

(20:25):
And I wasn't really all that interested in Bryce train
coming into the year. I didn't believe in the power.
It had thirteen home runs combined in close to three
hundred games leading up to this year, and then he
just went off. I think it was August where he
hit ten home runs in the month, and he just
showed that he had that capability in him. Like going
from a twenty nine percent hard hit the forty seven
in one year is ridiculous. The barrel rate from two

(20:48):
point four to seven point nine in just the span
of a few months, Like, those games do not really
happen very often, and he didn't sacrifice any of his
real contact ability. In fact, he hit for a higher
batting average than he ever did before two eighty eight.
So yeah, you were probably hoping for more steels if
you drafted Bryce to Rang you had fifty the year prior,
but you cut that in half. You had a bunch
of homers, runs, Ribby's and batting average. I think everybody

(21:10):
is taking that trade off. He's my number three ranked
second basement heading into the year. I've just been doing
all kinds of second base work for the Black Book.
He's number three for me. I think it's justified. But
the position is pretty bad as well.

Speaker 1 (21:21):
Yeah, I got to tell you, I don't this is
not one that I really love. Like is he the
third second baseman?

Speaker 3 (21:26):
Like?

Speaker 1 (21:26):
Yeah, probably, But I don't know if if I'm a
complete sell on the full bore power. I will say
going from twenty nine to forty seven percent hard hit
rate absolutely phenomenal. I love that he increased his barrel rate,
but the problem is is like it's he doesn't get
the ball in the air, he doesn't pull the ball
in the air. The barrel is still kind of blow optimal.
He started striking out a little bit more. He's a

(21:48):
round to two sixty hitter. Is he still worth it
if he's a fifteen to twenty five guy, You know,
he's still fifty bases a year ago and the base
stealing kind of ticked back down. Now if he's a
fifteen forty it's a different discussion for sure, But I'm
not sure it's a justifiable range of value that I
really like. But despite that, you like him, I don't

(22:09):
like him. He's rising in ranks and he is going
to open a lot of eyes, but maybe not more
than this, and this might I'm not trying to be
negative about it, but you want a testament to what
the position looks like. As mentioned Jazz and Couteller at
the top, you've got Terrain, Yes, you've got Altove coming
in at six though, is Luke Kishel which might be

(22:30):
kind of a surprise now he is going outside the
top one hundred. The current ADPs, there are only three
second basemen going inside the top one hundred, so understand
the sixth second baseman is like a post one twenty
five player. Luke Keishall last year and just under two
hundred bots did hit four homers with fourteen stolen bases.
He had a three hundred batting average. He's expected batting

(22:50):
average was closer into the two sixties. He's kind of
got the to me, this is the old school Bryce
terrang profile, and I think you know, I don't. I
don't know what's steamer how on it, But like the
numbers look like they would pace closer to thirty five
to forty with twelve homers, So if you want to
pair it down, ten homers thirty stolen bases is actually

(23:12):
not bad at the current cost. But again, this is
the sixth second baseman, so we don't have to talk theory,
which is probably telling you you might want to target
one of the elite second basement if you get a chance,
unless you really do buy some of the theoretical value,
like Luke Keishall outside the top one twenty five what
do you think about his rank rise, which is absolutely

(23:32):
dramatic above Ozzie Albi's, above Jackson Holiday and you know,
above pretty much everybody but five guys.

Speaker 2 (23:40):
It's a little bit too aggressive for me. I'm a
sucker for a track record, and you guys have probably
picked up on this even just over the course of
the show. Guys like Nick Kurtz who haven't done it
a ton before, kind of make me nervous. And then
you got Luke keishell less than fifty games in the show.
I just can't see myself taking him, taking him at
all this year because he needs to be your staring

(24:00):
second basement unless you took somebody who in the terrang
Marte Chisholm group and then you can put him in
your middle infield or whatever.

Speaker 3 (24:06):
But he's starting for you. He's starting player on your roster.

Speaker 2 (24:09):
And I don't know how great I feel about that,
considering he doesn't hit the ball terribly hard thirty one
percent hard hit rate. I'm being charitable with that description.
He doesn't hit the ball hard at all, five percent
barrel rate. The lineup around him is not great at all.
Minnesota is a team that sold a lot of pieces
at the deadline. I don't think that they're looking like
a good team heading into twenty twenty six. And I

(24:30):
think if you're looking at a guy who could potentially
hit you fewer than ten homers, I just can't get
that excited about it. Even if he does steal thirty
thirty five bases. This is an expensive price for a
massive unknown player in a bad lineup, so I can't
really see myself paying it that often.

Speaker 1 (24:44):
Yeah, maybe it's like I'm a tiny bit defensive of it,
just because, like, if I can get thirty plus stolen bases,
I don't like the ten homers. Like, honestly, a guy
I would probably take a shot on a Jackson holiday
behind him a Sadana Rafael that's got just like more
potential productions. But Keishow's a full representation of people chasing
stolen bases, And I just don't think we have to
chase stolen bases like we've done in the past. I

(25:06):
mean you could if you want no homers with stolen bases,
you could wait fifty more picks and get exab edwards. Yeah.
I mean, if I was like Aabairo were to get
a gig, that's kind of the same thing. So yeah,
I guess, like in general, maybe you're not You're kind
of on the right space of it. But it's like
he's a little bit he's like a Walmart version of
Nico Horner, or you could say, a cheaper version of

(25:27):
Nico Horner. The problem is he's like one round lower
than Horner, so he should get prime spots in the lineup,
but there's just not enough good players in there. So yeah,
I guess at the end of the day, the rank
rise feels a little bit odd, but it doesn't matter.
He is a dramatic rank rise at the second base position,
and you know you are just going to have to
come to terms with it. Let's go to shortstop. Shortstops

(25:49):
a little bit beefier. But there are a couple of
players that are going to shock some eyes when you
start to see what their valuation looks like. And the
first one up is zach Netto. Obviously, if you've fostered
zach Netto, you're not completely surprised by it. He does
miss time, but he was able to get five hundred
bats last year with a twenty six twenty six season,
twenty six homers, twenty seven stolen bases. His batting average

(26:10):
is always kind of slunked a little bit, which you'd
like to be higher. But he had eighty two runs,
So if you start pacing out the floor, seems like
he's a twenty five to twenty five guy, and you
probably can get you know, sixty to seventy RBI eighty
to ninety runs if things were to work out in
a positive range, maybe he's a thirty thirty guy with
one hundred runs. I mean, that's kind of what we

(26:31):
end up looking at with him from a profile perspective.
Not a big OBP guy. He did barrel up the
ball and hit it hard forty six and a half
percent hard hit percentage, fourteen percent barrel. Those are things
that we like. He gets the ball in the air
and he pulls it, so that's what creates kind of
like a really good floor for him to keep going.
His EIGHTYP is inside the top thirty five, though he

(26:54):
is the sixth shortstop off the board, but that is
a top thirty five overall price. What do you think
about the rise of zach Netto.

Speaker 2 (27:02):
I think it's totally justified, and I think that he
is a borderline fantasy stud at this point.

Speaker 3 (27:07):
And he's one of the rare.

Speaker 2 (27:08):
Cases of the guy who got hurt in the offseason
and if you've paid to draft him well injured, it
actually paid off for you. Usually, if a guy gets
hurt in the off season you draft him, that's just
going to be a year of trouble.

Speaker 3 (27:18):
Shane McClanahan.

Speaker 2 (27:19):
But zack Netto even in one hundred and twenty eight
games twenty six and twenty six. You mentioned the runs
at eighty two for the Angels. Eighty two runs in
one hundred and twenty eight games. I think that he
is about as safe of an option as you're gonna
find at shortstop, especially if you don't want to pay
up for those elite, elite guys price wise Henderson, Lindor Turner,
Della Cruz, Bobby Witt. Zach Netto sitting right there twenty

(27:42):
five twenty five, like you said, is probably the floor.
The swing and miss issues are not what I really
want to see. Twenty seven percent strikeout rate. It's backed
up by the swinging strike chases a little more than
I would like.

Speaker 3 (27:53):
But he will run. The Angels do not care. They
will let him run.

Speaker 2 (27:57):
He's been caught nineteen times in the last two years,
he's stolen fifty six bases. But they will not put
any light up on zach Netto. He could probably steal
thirty five bags in a whole year. The powers legit.
The lineup around him is not amazing, but as he
showed this year, didn't really hold him back on the
counting stats. I think zach Netto is one of my
favorite targets at short this year. In those projections one
hundred and thirty three games from Steamer twenty six and

(28:19):
twenty seven, they think he'll do it exactly over again.

Speaker 1 (28:21):
Yeah, and I like that. The thing I'd love for
the whiffs to go down and the chase to go down.
One thing to watch is he did underperform against fastballs.
Nineteen of his twenty six homers came against fastballs, and
he underperformed from a batting average perspective. He hit two
seventy one expected was two ninety three, so you love that.
But he overperformed against secondary stuff while also whiffing more.

(28:45):
So what I'm getting at is is like, is this
going to be a year where the league is going
to throw him less fastballs, more secondary stuff and the
batting average kind of tracks down a little bit. His
XPA expected batting average is two fifty four, so it
just supports his average if he can be a two
fifth guy, which he has kind of proven to be.
The power and stolen base. It's just there and something

(29:05):
that might shock your eyes, your nervous system. He's ranked
above Mooki Bets. Now, I know Mookie Bets obviously underperformed
this past year, but that's the level of reaction that
has happened this year. What Mookie Bets was last year
twenty homers, eight stolen bases in relatively a full season.
Zach Netto is going above him from the shortstop position.
So that's you know, a come to terms with situation, now,

(29:29):
got it? Yeah, we get it, and you know I'm
gonna I want complete players where I can. I think
you can make up the batting average with zach Netto,
and he kind of provides in all those spots. That's
why he's worth it. Big power, speed combo players are
players that you can make bets on when you look
at shortstop, though, there's kind of a tier of eight,
at least according to early ADP, there's eight shortstops qualified

(29:52):
according to the NFPC standards that are inside the top fifty.
Then there's a little gap. There's about a thirty pick
difference between the next shortstop, and that is where Graldo
Perdomo checks in. At shortstop nine, he is right outside
the top eighty. He is coming off of clearly a
career year where he got a couple first MVP votes

(30:15):
as well, twenty homers, twenty seven stolen bases, hit two
ninety with almost three ninety OBP phenomenal points. League type
of player because he doesn't chase, he doesn't strike out,
he doesn't whip. He walks a ton. This year he
was just outside of the strikeouts going down. He got
the ball in the air, he burrowed the ball up more,

(30:37):
and he had the best expected batting average of his career.
And he's got Ktell and Corman Carrol hitting in front
of him. But here's the question, is it warranted? Was
this a one off season? I think that's what people
are trying to come to terms with Perdomo. You know
he's going to be this baseline contact player, But do
you buy the homers, do you buy the stolen bases?

(30:57):
They're so off of his career markers. If you do it,
Luckily you don't have to pay a top seventy five price.
But he is a top ten shortstop according to early valuations.
So do you buy this rank rise for Heraldo Perdomo.

Speaker 3 (31:09):
I mostly do.

Speaker 2 (31:11):
I don't know that I buy into everything, And like
you mentioned, some of the things, like the speed is
a little bit interesting. He's a forty fourth percentile sprint speed.
Guy stealing twenty seven bases, I don't know if we're
going to see that again. Twenty home runs with a
six percent barrel rate, decent launch angle of.

Speaker 3 (31:27):
Fifteen degrees, but he doesn't hit the ball terribly hard.

Speaker 2 (31:29):
I would probably take the under on homers and stolen
bases now, just from a profile perspective, Guys who walk
more than they strike out, it's way to tug at
my heart strings. There was only two of them in
Major League Baseball last year. It was Luisa Rise and
it was Roaldo Prodomo. Among qualified hitters, he is a
great overall hitter. I don't know how much that will
translate to fantasy success necessarily going forward, especially with the

(31:52):
top one hundred pick. A lot of this was probably
volume based. One hundred and sixty one game seven hundred
and twenty played appearances. That probably explains why he got
to one hundredribbies and ninety eight runs. Now, you could
probably speak better to this. Being a Diamondback fan, you've
seen him a lot more than I have. But I'm
probably taking the under on all five of his categories.
Maybe he could hit two ninety again, but this feels

(32:13):
like an under on everything situation. And yet I still
think he's not a bad pick, if that makes sense.
Even if he goes fourteen homers, seventeen stolen bases and
hits two ninety, I'd be okay with it.

Speaker 3 (32:24):
But I think we're going to see some regression.

Speaker 1 (32:26):
Yeah, the other two categories. Talking about ninety eight runs
and one hundred RBI he had, which was sick. Yeah,
I think you want to approach a guy like Perdomo
playing the unders on it. But the thing you have
to remember is if he is hitting three, you've got Corman,
Carroll and Ktel in front. If he's leading off, you
have Katel and Corp Carol hitting behind. If he's hitting two,

(32:46):
you have one of Katel. You know, you get the
point here. There are run and are run and RBI
opportunities abound. Plus I think the stolen base numbers can continue.
I think it's maybe closer to twenty. You have to
figure out is if he's a fifteen to twenty guy
with ninety runs ninety rbi and he's hitting two ninety,

(33:06):
is that worth Yes, it's a juice worth the squeeze,
and I kind of think it is. He's a great
floor player. The reason you can buy in on the
floor is the low strikeouts, the low whiff numbers. By
the way, I mean as a switch hitter, hit three
twenty i'm sorry, three forty one against lefties, which you
love to see, while also hitting two sixty against righty's.

(33:28):
His power came from righty's something to watch though. A
dramatically better home hitter. He hit three twenty five at
home while hitting only two fifty six on the road,
but he doubled his home run output on the road.
Chase Field's a pretty friendly ballpark to hit it. I
think there's floor enough that the rank rise makes sense.
It's justified you can jump in. The problem is is

(33:51):
it does feel like there's a gap when you could
have taken Trey Turner as the fifth short stop and
you're taking per Domo as the ninth. And by the way,
a guy like Corey Seeger is sitting behind or Jeremy
Paania or Bobashett, that's what makes Perdomo weird. I will
say I think Perdomo is great for builds. If you
know what I'm saying. There are players regardless of whatever

(34:12):
you're doing with your team, they don't matter. Perdomo specifically
for a team that might have taken some shots on,
some batting average early, maybe a little devoid of some
stolen bases and runs. Perdomo is a player that I
think fills those categories well. Make up the batting average
a little bit, make up some speed if you've got
the Nick Kirtz or the Kamanaro's early on, and he
can help you with runs. I think he might be

(34:34):
a little bit more build specific than some of the
other players because it's hard to deny that there isn't
incredible value on Jeremy Pania, Bobachhet, Corey Seger behind him.
But the whole point is to tell you his rank
has risen into a top nine shortstop in the Fantasy Baseball.

Speaker 3 (34:50):
One quick you mentioned Marte.

Speaker 2 (34:52):
Do you think he comes back, because I know there's
been all the talk about and maybe he gets traded
or something.

Speaker 3 (34:55):
Do you expect him to be back in twenty twenty six?

Speaker 1 (34:57):
Yeah, yeah. I mean this isn't like a show for
trades or anything like that, but I do expect to
tell Marte to be back. I think it would take
heaven and Earth for them to move because they want
to still be competitive. And that's why I think the
top of the lineup is fascinating for the Diamondbacks with
the guy like Perdomo, because if you're running Carol Marte
and Prodomo out there, it creates an incredible floor for

(35:18):
all of these players. All right, enough about those Diamondbacks.
We've got third base, outfield, and pitching coming up. But
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(35:38):
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(35:58):
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Draft Wizard at fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard.
That's Fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard. All right,
let's go and take a look at third base. We've
kind of been alluding to this guy. This is a

(36:20):
very similar conversation to Nick Kurtz that we had. We
got to talk about the new rank change of Junior Camenero.
If there wasn't a guy named Jose Ramirez, we would
have a brand new third baseman, just like with Nick
Kurtz on this list. But you know, Jose Ramirez is
a unicorn, but Junior Camenero might be a power unicorn.
As a twenty to twenty one year old, hit forty

(36:43):
five homers with a two sixty four batting average, scored
ninety three runs, did steal seven bases. Not a big
OBP guy popped out one hundred and ten runs, so
that is roughly a high end three category player. Nothing
else is really necessarily chipped in but his cost. He's
coming in as the second overall third baseman, a top

(37:06):
fifteen overall pick, and frankly, he is going in many
first rounds. Fourteen is a first round fifteen team rot
o pick. Caman Aro, Guys, I've seen go inside the
top ten. If you are chasing elite power, that is
what Cameron Aro provides. But the question is do you
buy it? Top end fastest bat in the land. He barrels.

(37:28):
He hits the ball hard, but kind of similar to
Nick Kurtz, though he doesn't have the same He really
doesn't have the same strikeout issues. He had a nineteen
percent k percentage, which is like wildly impressive. He's got
like some whiff issues he chases, but he just did
absolutely ridiculous stuff this past year. Are you buying this
new rank rise? You will have to pay an elite

(37:50):
elite cost for a player like Junior Camenaro, which maybe
is a reason we can take Prodomo later. Do you
buy this rank rise of Junior Cameranero or do you
hate it as much as Nick Kurtz.

Speaker 2 (38:00):
I understand it, but I don't like it. You know,
there will be people probably who come away with a
turnpick and take Camon Arrow and encourage together, and that
will be very fun, right, That would be a very
fun bill to have.

Speaker 3 (38:10):
I don't know how successful it would be though.

Speaker 2 (38:12):
Junior Cameron Naro, I think he's going to be a really,
really good hitter. But what to expect going back to
the trop is kind of my main concern because Tampa
will be playing at Tropic Canna Field next year. Based
on the reports I've seen, I don't know if anything
is one hundred percent confirmed, but they were playing at
George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa last year or in somewhere
in Florida, the minor league facility for the Yankees is

(38:33):
where they were playing.

Speaker 3 (38:34):
At home, Junior.

Speaker 2 (38:35):
Cameron Naro had a one sixty WRC plus and a
nine to fifty four OHPS. He was a god at home.
On the road, he had a seven forty three OPS
with a two sixty six on base percentage and a
one hundred WRC plus. He was exactly average away from home.

Speaker 1 (38:49):
But and let's let's put one thing into perspective real quick.
I want to add to that. You want to dumb
it down. He hit three thirteen at home and two
eighteen on the road, one hundred point difference in his
actual batting average. Though the funny unique thing homers were
still split. He was hitting homers regardless, but that is

(39:09):
a one hundred point differential between home and road on
his batting average.

Speaker 3 (39:13):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (39:13):
The thing that was damning to me was when Jason
Kleette told me he wasn't that interested and is like
the biggest Raised guy who watches him every single day,
can't get behind it.

Speaker 3 (39:21):
Now.

Speaker 2 (39:22):
I go back and forth a little bit because if
you guys remember, the Raised schedule was very backloaded with
away games. They wanted to play a lot of the
home games early in the season so that they weren't
playing in one hundred and ten degree heat all summer,
so a lot of those games later in the season
were away games. Junior Camanaro in the month of September
and October combined had a one to sixty eight WRC
plus in August it was one fifty four. The batting

(39:44):
average in September and October three nineteen with a lot
of away games, So there is a part of me
that thinks that over the course of the season he
did progress as a hitter, and he's not just a
home tiny ballpark merchant. Like you mentioned, he's twenty two
years old. I think he can build on this, and
I think he can be a really, really good player.
But you mentioned three categories. That's probably what you're getting
out of him as a first round pick, even at

(40:05):
a week position at third base, I just can't see
myself doing it all.

Speaker 1 (40:09):
Right, So if you had and by the way, positionally
it's nothing like second base, you could argue, like, what
do you like more first or third? From the depth perspective, first,
I'd probably go first as well. So if you had
to invest in one and you had to buy one
of these guys in their rank rise, which is almost
next to each other, Kurtzer Junior, Camenaro, if I.

Speaker 2 (40:31):
Had to, I'd probably take camon Aro just because I
like first base better. There are targets later down the board,
and I like some deeper third base guys as well.
But if I see like Jonathan Randa close to pick
two hundred, Christian Walker and Wilson Contrero's around pick two hundred,
Alec Burlison, who I talked about on our previous shows,
a big target of mine. Two twelve, adp Sal Stewart, Manzardo,
Lenny and Sosa Jake Berger. These are all post two

(40:53):
fifty picks. It's a lot to like at first base.
Third base not so much.

Speaker 1 (40:58):
The only thing you definitely must not leaving the batting
average then, because like Nick Kurtz would technically be a
four category player if we're comparing, because he did hit
two ninety, So you got to really believe the batting
average is in a comeback down while Camonaro's not, because
that would be you know, a full category advantage for
Nick Kirk. Even though I mean, Junior might hit fifty
this coming year.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
By I think they're both like two fifty two to
sixty hitters, probably give or take maybe ten points in
the direction.

Speaker 1 (41:23):
Okay, the other third baseman with a big rank rise.
What's very funny about this one is this one that
has just been kind of looming because he's had this underlining,
you know, just like kind of savant push because you know,
the barrel, the hard hit numbers were really kind of
up there, and it was just like, man, he's still
thirty seven bases the prior year. Will the power ticked
in this year with the batting average, it's mikel Garcia

(41:45):
with the Royals, who comes in at a right around
top one hundred valuation. I currently see it's actually ninety four,
so it's inside the top one hundred. He is the
sixth third baseman. He is going higher than Johannio Suarez,
higher than Alex Bregman. I don't know. The Bregman stuff
maybe is a little bit more about where he's where.

(42:05):
People don't know where he's going to play. But the
Garcia stuff is built around the speed. So this is
a spot where you know. The lead batting average of
two eighty six was supported by an expected batting average
of two to eighty. Cut his strikeouts down, He's done
it three straight years. Increased his walk rate for four
straight years. It's hard to hit rates around forty five percent.
Almost doubled his barrel. He put the ball in the

(42:27):
he did everything right. He did all the stuff that's right,
and that got him to a sixteen homer twenty three
stolen based season. Solid runs. Kind of hitting at the
top of the lineup and he gets you kind of
like a positional advantage because he does stuff at the
position that you might not get elsewhere. Junian Camernows going
forty five homers, but you could get anywhere from twenty
to thirty stolen bases to go along with fifteen to

(42:49):
twenty homers and batting average from MIKEL. Garcia, So he
can I don't know if he's Perdomo in that, Like
it's a cool, weird build, but what you're seeing in
early drafts is the prioritization again of stole and bases,
and this is an out of position statistic you can
get with him. But he's got a lot of good
underlying profile stuff that has created this cool floor, and
people are choosing this floor with stolen bases over like

(43:13):
I said, Suarez and the power and the defunct batting
average Bregman would just kind of like like a lackluster everything.
And they're doing it at a pretty high cost. So
do you buy a top one hundred rank rise for MIKEL. Garcia?

Speaker 3 (43:24):
Yes and no.

Speaker 2 (43:25):
Like the thing about Bregman and the guys who are
unsigned is that the second they signed, they're going up
two rounds. So just the way it works, Bregman was
really good when he was on the field last year,
but the uncertainty Boba, Shad, Kyle Tucker.

Speaker 3 (43:35):
As soon as he's guys signed, the prices are going up.

Speaker 2 (43:38):
Mikel Garcia, I don't really believe he can get the
sixteen home runs again. The batted ball profile is pretty mediocre.
Nine degree launch angle, five percent barrel forty five hard
hit is pretty solid. But when he's hitting forty four
percent of those on the ground, I'll probably take the
under on sixteen homers. Everything else I think is pretty repeatable.
He can get into the eighty ninety run range. They

(43:58):
kind of moved him around the order a little bit
last year. I would expect that he would just be
the leadoff hitter. He probably should be proved that he
can be a good on base contributor and this stolen
bases are pretty secure. Twenty three, thirty seven, twenty three
within that range you can expect.

Speaker 3 (44:11):
Again.

Speaker 2 (44:11):
I just think the power, you should probably be taking
the under on it. But as a hitter, like the
play discipline metrics are great. He doesn't chase tons of contact,
doesn't swing and miss a lot like he's a He's
a really good pure hitter for a team. That I
think probably will fare a little bit better in twenty
twenty six.

Speaker 1 (44:26):
Interesting number they have the expected home run totals on
Baseball Savant. He was actually projected for one more homer,
not like an under, so the expected homer run total
liked him for a little bit more. He increased. They
have this no doubter percentage. You know where you're you're
hitting homers at a level that is going in most
all ballparks. It's something to definitely watch for. He has

(44:47):
also increased his pull air percentages four straight years. Four
years ago he had a five point nine percent where
he pulled the ball in the air. Sixteen percent this year,
so he's tripled it over the four year markers. So
you when you hit the ball hard, you get the
ball in the air and you pull it, good things happen.
The problem is he's got some other stuff where he's
like he's not barreling the ball enough, which you want

(45:07):
to see a little bit more. But people are chasing
stolen bases and that's what ends up happening. All right,
let's go to the outfield and we're going to give
you a board of three outfielders that are fascinating rank
risers this year, and we'll do some kind of quick
hits on him. The three outfielders that have moved up
that we've highlighted. Number one, Roman Anthony. He is a

(45:28):
starting top twelve if you're playing on like a head
to head. He is ranked out as a top twelve
outfielder this year. ADP is right outside the top fifty
Byron Buxton is going to be a one to two
outfielder for most people this year based off of what
he did last year. There's a heavy buy in. It's
top seventy five in current costs and speaking of stolen bases.

(45:51):
I really debated this in the offseason. I kind of
thought he could push as high as like the top
seventy five. Kind of cool dark towards the end, but
Chandler Simpson essentially is a starting outfielder in even a
three outfielder league. It's like outfielder thirty seven. He's just
inside the top one fifty. It's an ADP of one
fifty four. Here, which of these outfielders rank rise is

(46:16):
the most egregious to you?

Speaker 2 (46:19):
I think it's got to be Buston. I just don't
know what we're doing. Like he has we know who
Byron Buckson is on pure talent alone. If he was
healthy his whole career, he'd probably be going to Cooperstown.

Speaker 1 (46:31):
That Isnty five homers, twenty four stolen bases in under
five hundred bats last year. That is what we do
know coming into his thirty one thirty two year season.

Speaker 2 (46:39):
But he's healthy, he's great, no question about it, no
question about it. If he if you turn the injury
sliders off from day one, I think Byron Buckson is
a Hall of Famer. But if you look at the
games played every year going back to twenty seventeen, where
he had one hundred and forty games, twenty eight, eighty seven,
thirty nine, sixty one, ninety two eighty five, one oh
two one twenty six being the high water mark does
not give me really the warm and fuzzy feeling. He's

(47:01):
gonna be thirty two years old next month, a week
before Christmas, will turn thirty two. I just can't see
myself investing in him with that price. That's a crazy price.
Top seventy five, top twenty outfielder. You might get forty
five games out of him. Again, maybe he plays the
whole season, but the odds are against it, you know,
I just can't see it with outfield being especially if
you are playing in a three outfielder, more more shallow,

(47:24):
casual type of league. I cannot see myself taking a
risk here with a five outfielder league. Maybe you feel like, okay,
I need more outfielders. I have to take the risk.
Twenty picks ahead of Soderstrom, twenty picks ahead of say
a Suzuki, thirty picks ahead of George Springer, ta Oscar Hernandez,
Lawrence Butler.

Speaker 3 (47:39):
I could go on and on and on. I want
nothing to do with Buckson.

Speaker 1 (47:42):
I will tell you I want all to do with
Roman Anthony. Though Roman Anthony I love. I Actually the
when you look at it positionally, you're like, man, he's
like the twelfth outfielder going outside the top fifty kind
of gives me hope in a very like Wyatt Langford
James Wood type draft of last year. Except the thing
I talked about all at the back end of the
year is Roman Anthony had I think so many of

(48:06):
the profiling of Nick Kurtz, just without the big major outcomes,
and I think they're going to happen into the very
near future. He had a sixty percent hard hit rate
last year, absolutely elite, fifteen percent barrel elite, ninety four
point five average exit velocity, love love love sliders across
the board. He did, though he did WHI he did

(48:27):
not chase a whole bunch great bat speed, hits the
ball incredibly hard expected. wOBA was in like the top
ten to fifteen if he qualified. He had eight homers,
four stolen bases in two hundred and fifty seven at
bats with a two ninety two batting average. So if
you play extrapolation game, you're like, okay, Welsh, well that's
like a fifteen to ten guy or maybe twenty ten guy.

(48:48):
I think the sky's the limit for this guy, and
I think he's going to take a big step up. Plus,
what I do love is that the back end of
the year they were leading. Having this guy lead off,
he is going to hit in the top part of
the order and two three like, he's going to hit
in the top three of this order. There's gonna be
running RBI opportunities. I love the hitting profile. I do
want to see the strikeouts drop a little bit, But

(49:09):
he walks, he's gonna score runs. I hope there's some
support behind him, go and get him Pete Alonzo. But
I think I don't know what Seemer projection looks like
right now. I think it's too low. I think Roman
Anthony is a guy that we can push twenty five
to thirty homers I can get. I'm not eve really
bank on the stolen bases ten fifteen if I was
being super optimistic. But I think he's a relatively high

(49:31):
four category player. So I love Roman Anthony. This is
one I'm definitely bought in on. This is a rank
rise that I actually think could go even higher.

Speaker 2 (49:39):
Oh, I'm surprised it's not higher because when you look
at the last couple of years. You mentioned Wood and
Surio and Langford. By the end of draft season last
year and the main event, which is like the signature
contest on the NFBC, it's like eighteen hundred dollars USD
buy in, it's big time. While Langford was a top
of the second round pick, he was like sixteen seventeen overall.
This is the same type of profile the top prospect.

(50:01):
You get a little bit a cup of coffee, he
looks good. I'm surprised at the prices as low and
I think Roman Anthony hits a couple of hard homers
in spring. He's a third round pick probably. But that
hard hit rate you mentioned sixty point three percent among
all players with three hundred played appearances in the big
leagues last year, number one, the best hard hit rate
of anybody who had three hundred played appearances last year.

(50:22):
And one last thing I'll mention is the strikeouts were
a little bit concerning. I don't know how to really
reconcile that because he doesn't swing and miss a lot.
He's a ten percent swinging strike rate, but he goes
deep int accounts big walk rate and it's going to
lead itself to more strikeouts naturally. But that being said,
I think twenty seven percent does come down to twenty
three to twenty four next year.

Speaker 1 (50:39):
And just ending the Chandler Simpsons stuff, the rank rise
is because of elite stolen bases. He's going to be
near the tippy top of projected if not at the
tip top forty four stolen bases. Last year he hit
two ninety five. The runs were low in around four
hundred bats. If you give him six hundred plate appearances,
then a little bit more aggressive. I don't think it's
out of pocket to say that he's a high end

(50:59):
three category player. He's expected batting average supports his batting average.
He could steal fifty with his eyes closed. I think
he can score ninety runs if the offense is humming.
I actually think the rank rise isn't to a level
when you see some of these stolen base guys, you know,
going inside the top thirty fifty because they steal bases,
and then you just, yes, he's an empty homer, empty

(51:21):
RBI guy. But if you can go post one thirty
and get fifty to sixty stolen bases with high batting
average and runs, you can make up for that, especially
if you took Camanaro and Nick Kurtz. So the Chandler
Simpson one makes a lot of sense. It's going to
be more build specific in how you you know, kind
of end up viewing stolen bases for sure. So whether
you want a draft him or not.

Speaker 2 (51:41):
That early draft that happened a few months ago, the
one that Bubba and Bloomfield and those guys were in.
Ryan Roof, who's a road a wire guy, really good guy.
His build was Jacob Wilson, Chandler Simpson and then cal Rawley,
and I don't know if it was Judge or one
of those other like big, big power guys. So going
on both ends of the spectrum, the big power, the
big batting average and speed, Chandler Simpson is really maybe

(52:03):
more than any player in the whole playerpool, dependent on
how you've constructed your team at that point of the draft.
He's not a smash pick at one forty regardless. You
need to have the power early on. If you don't,
then you're probably screwed because he might never hit a
home run in his whole career unless he hits it
inside the parker.

Speaker 1 (52:17):
I hit a couple of those. All right, let's go
to pitchers. We're gonna the first one we're gonna do
is a singular player, and we're going to talk just
about Brian Wu because we've got a collection for the
next I thought Brian Wu was one of the more
fascinating rank right, there's plenty of rank risers. Of course,
the top tier still looks the same. In Scooble, it's Skeins,
it's crochet. Hunter Brown is obviously taking a jump up.

(52:38):
You could argue Chris Sanchez, I mean Chris Sanchez is
going off as a top ten SPN here, but I
wanted to put a focus on Brian Wu who comes
off as the twelfth starting pitcher. It's like the sixteenth
pitcher on NFBC, but the twelfth starting pitcher, so in
a you know, like a head to head that is
an SP one of sp ones and he's coming off
a phenomenal year. Got hurt in the playoffs, which kind

(52:59):
of took back, but two nine four ERA one hundred
and eighty six innings, just just short of two hundred strikeouts,
a point nine to three whip, twenty seven point one
K percentage to four point nine walk percentage one of
the lowest walk percentages, a big increase in K percentages
which you really really love to see, took some major strides.
Also added about a full mile per hour on his fastball,

(53:23):
which is key, and his slider ticked up over two
miles per hour. That led to some elite results, and
he floats in this elite territory. So let me ask
you this, Joe Chris Sanchez as SP eight or Brian
Wu as SP twelve, and the round difference is let's
call it one round, third round for Sanchez, fourth round,

(53:44):
for Wu.

Speaker 3 (53:45):
I have to go with Chris Sanchez there.

Speaker 2 (53:48):
As much as I as much as I really like
Brian Wu, I'm still not one hundred percent sure if
I can trust his health going forward. I know he
had the bit of an elbow problem in twenty twenty four,
which I don't think it's a huge conscer, especially like
you mentioned, you pitched the whole year, didn't get hurt
until the end, and I don't know if it was
that serious. He came back and pitched in the playoffs
a few weeks later. But Christopher Sanchez like he had

(54:11):
a legit cy Young case this year, and Brian Wu
probably had a pretty legit case. But Christopher Sanchez, I
think this is a top five or six pitcher, Like
Christopher Sanchez is going to be probably my number five
ranked pitcher heading into the year, and I think you
could have made a case, honestly looking at the underlying
numbers that he maybe even deserve the cy Young.

Speaker 3 (54:29):
This year, which maybe people will fight back a little bit.

Speaker 2 (54:31):
But I think that he is as good as it gets,
and I think that Wu was very good but doesn't
feel quite as safe.

Speaker 1 (54:37):
He's right in that range. Elite home ballpark had a
two four to four era there, I would say if
I'm getting a round discount with the changes that have happened,
especially if I'm getting a two round discount with the
changes that have happened with Brian Wu. He's becoming like
an elite option elite the strikeouts compared to how he
walks like a K minus walk percentage thing with elite
whip elite era when opportunities, with an elite bullpen behind him,

(55:02):
an offensive support in a ballpark that you love, I
think everything is trending up. He's a top twelve sp
with a little shine of Chris Sanchez in that conversation.
This last part is a is a quadrant of pitchers.
We talked about one that I love in the last episode.
This is like a quadrant of guys that all have
some really fascinating ADPs that I think you just need

(55:22):
to be up on. It kicks off with Chase Burns,
who comes in at one twenty four ADP Jacob Mizerowski
with a one twenty four point sixty four two spots lower,
You've got Cam Schlitzler at one twenty eight on that list,
and then if you move down Trey A Savage at
one point fifty and Bubba Chandler at one sixty one.

(55:45):
The point of this these are all roughly inside the
top forty five sps, which are all going to be
significantly rosterble, especially as like your starter starters you're going
to be counting on, the ranks have changed. The highest though,
being Chase Burns and Jacob Misowski. Get to know these names,
get to know the high rank. These are going to

(56:06):
be your sp twos or threes likely on a lot
of your teams. Which one of these guys do you
want to hit?

Speaker 2 (56:13):
So I'll fight the urge to talk about Treya Savage
and I'll go with Jacob Mazarowski here. I think that
you know, he was a polarizing player last year. People
were mad that he was named an All Star and
he kind of faltered down the stretch a little bit,
and it was a bit of an odd debut for
him pitching and relief in the playoffs, et cetera. But
the underlying skills here are so so good. The thing

(56:35):
that is the main concern is the walk rate. Every
level he's pitched in, even low A, he's had a
high walk rate above ten percent. It was eleven point
four percent last year and his debut, which is not terrible.
You can live with that, especially with the strikeouts. That's
kind of the main concern everything else. I think that
the Brewers are going to put him in the starting
rotation next year. The fact that he throws his curveball
and it's a really good curveball kind of is the

(56:58):
distinguishing factor between him and Chase and who are going
right at the exact same price.

Speaker 3 (57:01):
You're picking between the two of them.

Speaker 2 (57:03):
Burns is more of the two pitch guy, fastball slider,
whereas Miserowski can mix in the curveball. Think it makes
him a little bit more projectable for next year. Now
there's an injury risk all over the place with these
guys on ninety six mile an hour sliders, et cetera.
But I think Miserowski has a shot to be one
of the best pitchers in baseball starting next year as
long as he stays healthy.

Speaker 1 (57:24):
And those guys, it's like one twenty five essentially for
Burns and Miserowski. Schlitler is kind of right in that
discussion as Nolan McLain. That's kind of a grouping. And
then there's this a little bit deeper grouping of Treya
Savage you mentioned, and the guy that I'll just talk
about is Bubba Chandler. Bubba Chandler is the cheapest of
all of these players. He was really babied last year,

(57:45):
only thirty one innings in the majors. But what we
saw was this dramatic change because he had walk issues
in the miners. He had a three percent walk rate
up here in the majors. As they got him into
some relief roles and then started transitioning him into some starts.
Those starts, his last three he went. He went six innings,

(58:06):
five innings, five and two thirds, gave up only two
earned runs during that time, and had nineteen strikeouts over
those last three starts with by the way, zero walks.
Bubba Chandler has got elite stuff. Now will the walks
come back and haunt him? Will it be a problem.
It's a definite possibility. But he pumps the ninety nine
mill hour fastball. His change up ended up having a

(58:28):
thirty nine percent with rate. His slider was in the
twenty two percentiles. The Pirates look like they actually want
to compete a little bit. Get some pieces out there,
and I think what they're telling us is we are
going to get a full season of Bubba Chandler, And
I think at this cost he has as much upside
as every single one of these young pitchers. Team context
is a little bit of a question, but the cost

(58:49):
is around forty spots lower than the Schlitlers and the
Jacob Mizerowskis of the world. There is inherent risk, but
I think the rank rise is fascinating of all these
young guys, and I think, who's everybody to try to
get one of these because miss Rawski Burns, I think
they've got and Chandler having incredible, incredible strikeout upside, Ya
Savage and Schlitler might have a little bit more floor,

(59:10):
both with like playoff runs and a little bit more poise.
So all of those guys really jump out as fascinating
rank risers, and that leads us to the very end.
Relief pitchers. Two relief pitchers jump out to you in
the new ranks here and they are five and six
on urps. Cad Smith got to give the caveat NFBC

(59:33):
jumps up relief pitchers. In this roto format, everyone needs closers.
So sometimes in a standard like homely, you can almost
cut these in half by value. But I think the
so it's Cad Smith is fifty eight, the other one
a Roldest Chapman who was you know, on the wire
for half the year for people. He comes in at
sixty six. Don't focus on that. Focus on Cad Smith

(59:55):
being the fifth closer and the oldest Chapman being the
sixth closer off the list avi sleep you know the
stuff going on with class that has ended that what
do you would the Kate Smith stuff and kind of
vaulted him into that spot of world as Chapman has
just come off as this elite option even at his age.
What do you think about these two massive rank risers
in the relief market. That's going to see a lot
of the normal guys. You're going to see Andres Munnos,

(01:00:18):
you're gonna see Edwin Diaz, You're gonna Josh Hater, You're
gonna see the guys that you normally know, and then
these guys are thrust into it.

Speaker 2 (01:00:25):
Yeah, I think Kate Smith is going to be one
of my favorite targets.

Speaker 3 (01:00:28):
Class A is likely never pitching again. Maybe I didn't
likely anymore. He's he's cooked, He's.

Speaker 1 (01:00:32):
Oh, he's Yeah, he's not. That's not even a question.

Speaker 3 (01:00:35):
Kate Smith.

Speaker 2 (01:00:35):
His numbers have been unbelievable at every level he's ever
pitched at. This past season two nine three era, the
FIP was one nine five twenty eight percent strikeout minus
walk great. Every number that we've mentioned throughout the show
in a positive manner doesn't allow a lot of barrels.
He gets swings and misses. The contact against him isn't good,
like he checks every box sixteen percent swinging strike great.

(01:00:58):
Stuff is great. Everything is great. The only thing that's
not great in Cleveland is how many wins are they
going to have in a given year.

Speaker 3 (01:01:03):
Nobody knows.

Speaker 2 (01:01:04):
It could be ninety four, it could be sixty eight.
Nobody knows in a given year how many games are
gonna win. Chapman is more of a stay away just
because he's gonna be thirty eight years old before he
throws another major league pitch, and I just don't really
want to invest in a guy at that age who
you know, he doesn't strike out as many guys.

Speaker 3 (01:01:20):
As he used to.

Speaker 2 (01:01:20):
It's still a lot of strikeouts, don't get me wrong,
But he's not like peak a role as Chapman anymore.
Where he's up into the mid forty strikeout range and
at thirty eight years old, I just don't really.

Speaker 3 (01:01:29):
Want to get involved in that business again.

Speaker 2 (01:01:30):
I had drafted him a couple of times last year
and it worked out one of the best seasons by
reliever in the century, probably, but expecting a repeat again,
going back to the Kurtz and Camenaro point, expecting a
big repeat on a career year, and especially for a
thirty eight year old, is probably not wise.

Speaker 4 (01:01:44):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:01:44):
I think the thing that jumps out too is like
hater is actually going behind. In ADP's shout out to
David Bednar, that's another rank riser that we want to
inform you about and get you to know. I think
you know, there's some other guys on lesser teams. Carlos
Estevez is kind of down that list. What could happen
with Devin Williams. There's a lot of big questions. Kate
Smith feels safer. I don't hate the e rold As
Chapman pick as far as getting saves on that team,

(01:02:07):
but there are some massive changes in the closer market,
and Kate Smith is what Kate Smith and even David
Bednar and really jump out to you, and I think
the shock of seeing world as Chapman where he is
is a surprise to everybody. What was a surprise to you?
What is your favorite player that is jump Rake and
what's the one that you hate the most? You can
talk about the ones that we talked about, or you

(01:02:28):
guys can check out where either some of the early
ranks are or ADPs across the board. What do you hate?
What do you love? Drop it in the comments below.
As we get you through into the new year of
twenty twenty six with these rank risers that is going
to do it. Make sure you guys go over to
Fantasy Pros get locked in for this upcoming season. Make
sure you're subscribed on the podcast, and make sure you're
subscribed right here on the YouTube. Hit the bell so

(01:02:49):
you're notified of any of the new stuff that we
got going on, because we're about to hit into overdrive.
That's Joe Rico. I'm Chris Welsch. I hope you guys
have a fantastic one and we'll talk to you next
time right here and Fantasy Pros MLB.

Speaker 5 (01:03:00):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

Speaker 3 (01:03:03):
If you love the show.

Speaker 1 (01:03:04):
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Speaker 5 (01:03:06):
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