Top 10 Ranking Fallers in Early 2026 Drafts (Ep. 1144)

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros the Fantasy
Baseball Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh. We got Joe Rico in
the house. In the last episode we were talking about
players that were rising in ranks as we talk about
Fantasy baseball on the early go. Now, who is dropping
like bricks? These are ten players that are falling in
drafts comparative from twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six.

(00:27):
Some of them it's pretty obvious, some of them maybe
not so much. The whys, the where's the house? Hopefully
we're going to talk about all of that with all
of these guys, some hitters and some pitchers. Joe not
hard to identify some of the very obvious ones. But
this is going to get us an opportunity to talk
about why and if we think there's any potential bounce back,
as we did in the guys that were rising, just

(00:50):
because we're saying, hey, these guys are rising in ranks.
Sometimes we'd push back on it, sometimes we would buy it.
This is the same thing. Do we buy these players
that are falling in drafts or do we think that
there is some potential bounce back. I don't know if
you've already penpointed a player too that we're going to
talk about today that you are going to be back
in on.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Yeah, there's definitely a few of these guys that I'm
going to be interested in as a couple that I
think are falling for the right reasons because they are
either old or they're no longer as skilled as they
once were. But essentially a group of the guys who
were disappointments last year, a big hall of disappointing players.
Some of them still had some decent value. There's a
twenty twenty player, actually two of them that we're going

(01:26):
to talk about in here, But overall, these players were
the guys that got that Look, we're not mad.

Speaker 3 (01:31):
We're just disappointed, and that's great.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
Yeah, just a little disappointed for sure. If you guys
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(01:54):
it and a good celebration into leading off, so make
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want you to miss any of it as baseball is
going into full throttle mode here at Fantasy Pros, so
let's jump right into this. We've got ten names that
are guys and we are using nfbc's early ADP. By

(02:17):
the way, that's probably the most accurate we actually have.
Even dumbe this down to draft champions. I know you've
kind of made a case to maybe only focus on
draft champions. So there's like twenty six to thirty drafts
right around there that is kind of dictating it. It
is not the be all, end all using NFBC data,
But what I do think is important about it is
it is the start of where a lot of places

(02:39):
are going to build their ADPs around. Because there's going
to be an initial every website out there, we are
going to end up having an aggregate ADP here at
Fantasy Pros. All of these sites are going to be
based on a ranks and they're going to build kind
of this universal first ADP. And this is a really
good early marker of it. So I'm saying all this
to say, like, don't go ankers about some of the

(03:01):
numbers I'm giving you because they're obviously going to change,
but it's going to give you a really good range.
So that is what we're doing. We're going to base
this off of the NFBC Draft Champions ADP as of
recording this episode, and I'm also going to be giving
you what the aggregate ADP was on Fantasy Pros last season.
So I've got both of those numbers, and let's jump
into player number one, one of the most prominent players here.

(03:25):
And it's a little weird because the next player we're
going to talk about actually had a higher twenty twenty
five ADP, but this player has a higher twenty six ADP.
We're talking about Jackson Merril. Jackson Merrill in twenty twenty
six on Draft Champions currently has an ADP of sixty six,
so in the mid sixties. So that is going to
be roughly it was at the fifth round, fifth, sixth round,

(03:48):
somewhere in there, depending what type of format you're looking at,
compared to twenty twenty five's ADP Aggregate ADP as of
March twenty seventh of twenty seven, So this was a
second to third round player in drafts that has moved
now to the fifth or sixth round. Really kind of
had a tanking year. He hit twenty four homers with
sixteen stolen bases with a two ninety average in twenty

(04:10):
twenty four. This year, injuries, miss time power did kind
of bounce back up with sixteen homers, but completely stop
stealing bases. Was Jackson merrill batting average dipped by about
thirty points. He is clearly falling in drafts. Do you
buy or sell the fall for Jackson Merril this year?

Speaker 2 (04:29):
So I've completed one draft this season, and Jackson Merrill
was my fifth round pick. In that draft, it was
a fifteen team league. I was picking thirteenth, so at
the end of the fifth round there, I think it
was seventy third overall. I really do like Jackson Merrill,
and I think we can chock up a lot of
his problems last year to the fact that he just
wasn't healthy starting at the beginning of the year. It
was a hamstring issue, and then there was a couple

(04:50):
of illnesses. He had a concussion and other illness in July.
His ankle got hurt in August. This is kind of
what I was saying about Boba Schett heading into last season,
that you take the previous you pretty much have to
just throw it away. There's nothing I'm going to take
forward from this season other than maybe Jackson Merrill was
pushing a little bit because he was hurt. His swing
percentage went up, and his swinging strike percentage also went up.

(05:11):
I think that was just him trying to compensate because
he wasn't having as much success as he did as
a rookie, and I think a lot of that is injury.
Base He still had a thirteen percent barrel rate, which
was actually an improvement over the year prior, forty three
percent hard hit rate, which was the same as the
year prior. A lot of people point to the stole
on bases, and again I think it's just injury based.
This sprint speed was still in the seventy nine percent.
Tile was eighty first percentile in twenty twenty four, So

(05:34):
again we're talking about such a young guy here. He's
twenty two years old. Still people might say, oh, Jackson
Merrily showed us he's not really that great. I would
argue this was entirely injury based, and Jackson Merrill probably
still should be a third or fourth round player, but
you're getting him in the fifth or sixth.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
Yeah, this is a unique one where we're kind of
talking about the negative that this player's falling in drafts,
and I buy the fall. But this is why I
would buy Jackson Merrill because the cost is there's a
lot more upside. You could argue in twenty twenty five
based on what he had done. He wasn't even know
a twenty twenty player. There was good batting average that

(06:10):
you know that second to third round cost. How much
more upside? How much more value? Had you already eaten
up most of the equity that you could have in
Jackson Merrill? So you're buying him at cost. So that
question happens to be, well, what does he need to
do to a return cost and b beat it?

Speaker 3 (06:27):
Now?

Speaker 1 (06:28):
This year, that question, I think is a much more
open ended one. If he's going into the sixties. There's
a lot of potential in there, especially if you do
believe that the you know, the hamstring and the leg
injuries and whatnot, we're keeping him from stealing bases and
he can return to form. I'm kind of with you.
He barreled the ball up more launch ego sweet spots.
It's a really kind of weird odd Sometimes you look

(06:48):
at some of these stats in Baseball Savant, you're like,
what the hell does that even do for you? What
is unique about that? I've always called that the Mooki
bets stat because that is one where Mooki doesn't always,
you know, jump off the board. Not this current version
of Mookie. The old one didn't jump off the board
with like crazy hard hit numbers or you know, crazy
barrel numbers or anything like that. But what he always
did is he got the ball in the air. And
launch angle sweet spot was you know, his ability to

(07:10):
hit the ball to get it in the air, and
you would see some of those guys pull it. He
doesn't necessarily pull the ball, but he's one of the
most elite launch angle sweet spots. He raised his launch angle,
he raised his hard hit rate, he walked a bit more,
and I think the I think I agree with you.
There's a little bit of like throw the season out,
but now you get him at a really good cost.
So he is falling down drafts and there is risk

(07:34):
because of how he tanked last year, and if he
becomes a twenty homer five stolen base guy with a
two seventy average, he doesn't even recoup the value into
the sixties. So there is potential, and this is why
he's falling down. But with so many injuries, a solid
hitting profile, he hit better on the road, and he
kind of equally hit the same on both sides of

(07:55):
the first and second half. I think I'm a buyer
as well, regardless of the fall that he's having in drafts. Now,
the next player that's falling in drafts year over year,
he would higher than Jackson Merrill last year and now
he's going lower this season. His twenty twenty six Draft
champions ADP is seventy. He was going twenty second last year,

(08:17):
So that is easy second round pick in whatever format
you're playing in. It's Jared Durant. Jared Duran another one
of those guys. He kind of fell into the same
camp of like I think a lot of people were like, Jared,
who do you like Jared Duran or do you like
Jackson Merrill? The bat kind of fell apart a little
bit this past year, and there's some trade rumors that

(08:38):
are flowing out there as well. What do you think
about Jared Durant's fall? Do you buy it? Do you
sell it? After a sixteen homer, twenty four stolen base,
and a about thirty point batting average crater this past season,
he's falling, You buy yourself.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
I think he's a reasonable buy. Still.

Speaker 2 (08:57):
I think that we may have overestimated the demise of
Jared Durant a little bit. He was the nineteenth ranked
outfielder last season, which is still very good. He didn't
recoup the second round value, but he still gave you
a lot of production. Eighty six runs, eighty four ribies,
the batting average two fifty six is not what you
were hoping for, but it didn't kill you. And when
you look below the surface, the barrel rate went from
nine point three to nine point seven, hard hit from

(09:19):
forty four to forty seven percent.

Speaker 3 (09:21):
There's not a lot that.

Speaker 2 (09:22):
I can look at to say that he's a completely
different guy than he was last year. If anything, I
think maybe we were overestimating his abilities last year because
of one massive season that he had in twenty twenty four.
I think this is where he probably should be going.
Is a fifth, sixth round type of player. Fifteen homers,
maybe thirty stolen base twenty five to thirty stolen bases.
And even if he does hit two sixty again, which

(09:43):
I'm not even conceding because he was two ninety five
two eighty five in the years past. Even if it's
two sixty, it's not really hurting you so much. With
all the accounting stats that he provides in Boston, a
lot of talk about he's going to get traded. Don't
really see it necessarily. He's still a very viable player.

Speaker 3 (09:57):
We've been hearing trade rumors for like a year now.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
Maybe he does get t but I have to assume
he's in Boston at this point, and if he is,
he's a volume guy who does a lot for you
in five categories.

Speaker 1 (10:06):
Yeah, And I think the piece of knowledge is to
know that Jared Duran has fallen year over year in
drafts and he is nowhere close to where he was
last year in the perception and whatever that value is.
So then it turns to us giving you that information,
to saying are you interested? I think I am interested,
kind of like jack Son Merril. The things uniquely that
stand out are the uptick and hard hit. I mean,

(10:28):
he had a max evy of one seventeen, which was
like the top one percentile of the league. That also
was an increase of his average ECX of lassy by
a full mile per hour. Now what I like about
those two things are he increased his bat speed by
a full mile per hour. You're getting into like an
elite territory from seventy three point six to seventy four

(10:49):
point eight, so you're swinging the bat faster while doing so.
There's a very interesting stat on baseball savant that I
think you have to You can't singularly look at, but
you can start to pair it with guys that barrel
the ball and hit the ball hard. It is called
ideal attack angle, and though it is still not great,
he improved his ideal attack angle while hitting the ball harder.

(11:10):
I think there's an adjustment period that ends up happening.
And be honest with you, maybe this new version of
you know, I swing the bat harder, I hit the
ball harder, I'm changing my attack angle. Maybe that's going
to kill his ability to be a two eighty five
to two ninety five hitter who he was. But I
do think there's a possibility that you know, as a
two sixty or two seventy hitter, he could become a

(11:31):
thirty thirty guy, a twenty twenty guy. My concern I'm
gonna throw out there. He hit only like two twenty
uh at on the road versus around two eighty at home.
So last season the exact number was two twenty seven
on the road, too eighty nine at home. So if
he were to be traded, is there a road split

(11:51):
in a new destination that could affect him negatively? That
is definitely a possibility, but the cost is really low.
He has fallen in drafts. Maybe he's some one that
you're gonna have interest in, and he is way more palatable,
and like Jackson Merrill, both of those guys, the equity
of the upside much more realistic now compared to these
lofty expectations we had last season. We've got a bunch more.

(12:13):
We've got some pitchers that are coming up soon. We've
got two very popular, polarizing outfielders that are coming up
here in just a minute. But we want to tell
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gambling called one eight hundred gambler All right, polarizing I

(13:18):
mentioned there's a little bit of there's some players that
bring big topics of discussion. Usually that's hate or love,
all in or all out, But there's no denying that
O'Neill Cruz is on his way down after this past season,
he had an ADP O'Neill did of forty one the
year before. According to the aggregate Fantasy Pros ADP, he

(13:41):
has now fallen down to seventy five. He also kind
of floats around by the way in different spaces, Like
you know, it's not uncommon for him to have gone
maybe into the seventies in some spots, But the perception
has changed because the year prior, Joe he had hit
two fifty nine, twenty one homers, twenty two stolen bases.
Me I was always a big proponent of him. I'm like,

(14:02):
oh my gosh, the barrel percentage is up. The strikeouts
they could potentially be down. He's hitting the ball harder. Well,
guess what better barrel percentage this year? Better average exit velocity,
better max CV. He hit one one hundred and twenty
three miles per hour. His hard hit rate was about
the same. He walked more, but he hit two hundred.

(14:22):
He had twenty homers, thirty eight stolen bases. He had
a sub three hundred OVP and he hit two hundred.
He is falling down drafts because the batting average now
looks like something that is not It's not repairable. So
do you buy this fall in drafts? Do you think
he should fall more or do you think he's someone
that you're going to be picking up.

Speaker 2 (14:43):
He's incredibly polarizing because the range is picked. Twenty five
was the highest he was picked. Twenty five, one point
fifteen is the latest. Based on what I'm looking at here,
might have even slipped later if you're not playing on
the NFBC. I'm going to say something that's probably going
to annoy a lot of people here. O'Neil Cruz is
not a good baseball player. He is not a good
baseball player, and I think the comp is honestly Luke Voight.

(15:03):
As a hitter, he's very similar in terms of, you know,
he hits the crap out of the ball. In fact,
O'Neil Cruz had the highest average exit velocity in Major
League Baseball last year. It only takes you so far
when you're hitting everything on the ground forty eight percent
ground ball rate after forty seven, forty four to forty nine.

Speaker 3 (15:18):
That's who he is.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
He chases a decent amount, but he swings and misses
a lot. Wherever the pitches are thirteen percent, swinging strike
rate fifteen percent last year. The batting average is always
going to be a problem. And I think the power
even though, yeah, like he hits the ball as hard
as anybody in the world, but he's going to be
a twenty home run guy if he doesn't elevate and
we haven't seen any improvement, and it's been almost four

(15:40):
hundred games, fifteen hundred played appearances. Offensively, I think that
he is turning into a Luke Voight type. And Luke
Foyd was able to elevate the ball a little bit more,
played first base as a post of the outfield, and
he'll say, Joe, well, he's an outfielder. He's a lot
more valuable than a guy like Luke Voight was. O'Neil
Cruz had nine negative nine defensive run saved as a
shortstop in twenty twenty four in the outfield negative fourteen

(16:01):
defensive run saved negative fourteen. He's not doing it on
either side of the ball. I think there is a
world where O'Neal Cruz is not even in Major League
baseball two or three years from now if he doesn't
seriously change things. Look at voy won the home run
title and he's playing in Korea two years later, and
I think that O'Neal Cruz has had in that direction
without some serious changes.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
So it's fair to say that you don't think he's
fallen enough.

Speaker 2 (16:25):
I wouldn't touch him. I wouldn't touch him in the
top one hundred and fifty picks.

Speaker 1 (16:29):
So I don't think he's fallen enough. So this is
gonna be the opposite the first two guys were like, yeah, hey,
these guys have fallen, but we think there's still some equity.
As a resident Oneil Cruz proponent, I don't think he's
fallen enough. A guy hitting two hundred with some of
the things in his profile, a thirty two percent k percentage,

(16:50):
he hit like a hundred against lefties. I mean, there's
there's a case that he should be platooned here. He
cannot be inside the top one hundred, but I do
think there's still potential for improvement. The way he hits
the ball, with the impact of how his back to
ball skills is, win making impact is absolutely elite in baseball.

(17:13):
He also is an elite sprint speedskuy. I mean there
was a point where he's leading the league in stolen
bases at thirty eight. Also, if you look at his babbitt,
part of this is going to be the ground ball thing.
But the year prior he had a three forty seven
babbit two sixty two. This past year eighty points lower.
So if there's some positive regression on that side of
his game, you know, you can see the batting average tickup.

(17:35):
His XBA was actually two twenty, so it is twenty
points higher. But you're just not going to be a
serviceable fantasy guy at two twenty. You truly cannot be
a fantasy target inside the top one hundred when you're
hitting at that level. So he deserves to fall. He
should not be in this range. But I do think
the skill set, there's the potential for improvement. He he

(17:57):
underperformed against off speed pitches. He stopped pulling the ball
in the air. If you can pull the ball a
little bit more, get it back in the air, and
even lower his k percentage to twenty eight percent. Don't
be surprised that he's now a two forty hitter. And
if he's hitting twenty five homers a forty stolen bases,
he is viable, but not at this cost, so he
does deserve to be lower. I'm obviously more of an

(18:18):
oneal guy than you. You say he's going to be
out of baseball in a couple of years. But you know,
like if you can't go inside the top one hundred.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
If he doesn't start raising that ball, he could hit
it two hundred miles an hour. If it's on the
ground every time, it's not helping anybody.

Speaker 1 (18:33):
I'd be like that two hundred miles an hour is
not going to help. I mean, two hundred might help
him a little bit. He might to start hitting it
two hundred miles an hour and then we could find
some improvement from one polarizing player to another. This is
the Joe Pi's a Pia Special Michael Harris. Michael Harris
gets lots of conversation because he last year was a
top fifty guy. His Fantasy Pros aggregate ADP across multiple

(18:54):
sites right before the season started was forty nine, so
top fifty player. This year he is barely inside the
top one hundred. Uh, the Draft Champions ADP is ninety six,
so he just sinks sneaks in. He actually improved on
his counting stats this past year. The year prior sixteen homers,
ten stolen bases with a two sixty four average. He

(19:14):
was a twenty twenty guy this year and it was
a big improvement. And I believe in the second half
because let me get the actual numbers. Yeah, he hit
two ten in the first half, two ninety nine in
the second half. In two hundred and sixty four at bats.
He hit fourteen homers in the second half. So that's
where it all came to. A lot of his profile honestly,
almost looks absolutely identical. His XBA is a little bit higher,

(19:36):
but he's falling in drafts. Is this and a proper fall?
Do you think he should fall more? And is he
someone you're interested in? Michael Harris.

Speaker 2 (19:46):
The differentiating factor with him and Oial Crews, because they
are very similar in terms of the profile, is that
Michael Harris will hit you to forty two to fifty
even if there are some shortcomings in him as a hitter.
He chases like we could probably get him to Chase
Welsh if we threw even a half decent pitch. He
chases forty two percent of the time. Only yiner Diez
has a higher O swing chase rate in all of baseball.

(20:09):
But he's shown us that the floor, at least if
he plays, you know, most of a season, is around
twenty twenty. And even this past year he hit two fifty.
So even though this was a horrible bottoming out season
for him, nine percent barrel rate, forty three percent hard
hit twenty twenty season, only a twelve percent swinging strike rate,
which isn't terrible, I'm willing to buy back in and

(20:31):
I'm willing to have egg on my face here as well,
because there's definitely a possibility that he is just not
as great as we were thinking initially. But if you're
getting him around pick one hundred, somewhere in that range
ninet eighty to one hundred, I think it is worth
it for the hope that he can play a whole
season rebound to a twenty five to twenty five guy
been saying it for three years now. I feel like
I'm hitting my head against the wall. But the Braves

(20:51):
should have a better offensive season in twenty twenty six
and one we've seen the last couple of years healthy
Acunya Albi's bounce back, et cetera.

Speaker 3 (20:57):
I think he's a solid pick.

Speaker 2 (20:59):
I think he's a solid p and I differentiate with
Cruise because the batting average is actually projectable, prodectably decent.

Speaker 1 (21:05):
I think this is like the most proper porridge of
all of them, you know, where it's like this one's
too hot, this one's too cold, this one is just
about right. Like I think we both see that there's
equity to be had in Duran and Merrill Oneil Cruz
is like laughably not in the right spot where he
should be. Michael Harris, this is just about where it
should be. Like, I love the huge rebound in the

(21:27):
second half of the year. The problem is is we
got to stop having streaky Michael Harris, whether it's injuries
or having like extreme Justin Upton type halfs. Like we
need to have a little bit more consistency with him.
At two and a half percent, walk rate is like laughable,
Like it just you got to get on base. He's
got to learn to walk more. At least he didn't
pair it with more strikeouts. His expected batting average is

(21:51):
quite a bit higher than where he was. He hit
two forty nine with an XBA of two seventy two.
Part of that is because he massively underperformed against fastballs.
He hit two fifty three expected two ninety four, and
it's a pretty good floor against osbeat and breaking pitches.
Essentially two fifty that's a really good, well rounded hitter.
And I think you can take the optimism optimism of

(22:14):
how he finished the year. You can look at some
of the hard hit numbers, you can look at him
becoming an all around hitter, and you can just pray
to God he can walk a little bit more. I
think this is about right. This is about right for
a volatile, streaky twenty twenty guy that doesn't have much
upside after that right around one hundred, so he has
fallen in drafts to arrange. That makes sense, and sometimes
that's all you're asking for, whether you believe or not,

(22:36):
the upside.

Speaker 3 (22:36):
Sorry to interrupt you.

Speaker 2 (22:37):
Sorry especially for Rodo, right, because if your head to
head play now trying to predict which week of the
year Michael Harris is going to go off, that's when
you're gonna go crazy in Rodo. If you didn't finished
twenty twenty, you don't really care if it comes in
April or August.

Speaker 1 (22:48):
Right, absolutely, we've got pictures. We've only been talking about hitters.
As a matter of fact, we've got a group of
pictures and then I think the two biggest names that
have fallen so dramatically that will shock people. If you're
not heavy in the baseball streets, or at least you're
just going to be like, oh, maybe it won't shock,
but maybe it'll be like, oh, this is where we're at.
We've got pictures, we've got those two players, but before

(23:10):
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(23:31):
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That's Fantasypros dot com slash MLB Draft wizard. Moving to
some pictures, Yes they have fallen. Sometimes they are the

(23:54):
big targets for a lot of people. But we've got
a handful of pitchers that have fallen in drafts or
gooder for worse, for better for worse. Let's see what
your take on it is. Coming in at number five
of players that have fallen. Pablo Lopez. Paba Lopez is
going one hundred and thirty six as we're doing this,
so just call it the mid one thirties in drafts

(24:16):
so far this season after last year going inside the
top sixty five, he actually had an aggregate ADP of
sixty three according to our sites. ADP over on Fantasy
Pros aggregated altogether, Paba Lopez not a not a great
season due to injury, but I mean statistically, if you
pay attention to ERA, it was better. He had a
four point zero eight ERA in twenty twenty four one

(24:38):
hundred and eighty five innings and to be frank Pablo Lopez,
I mean he had like some stability. He had three
straight seasons of one hundred and eighty innings or more,
but this past season he only had seventy five innings pitched.
He had a one to one WHIP and a two
seven to four ERA. Again, those are better than any
previous year if you're looking at it from a surface level,

(24:59):
But his cape percentage drop, his walk percentage was up expected.
El Ra tells a different story. He got hit harder
and he missed a bunch of time and that has
all led to him cratering in ADP and value. Do
you think this is the proper range for him or
do you think you're going to be looking a little
bit higher or is he just off your board altogether.

Speaker 2 (25:18):
I don't think it's a terrible price, but I'm a
little bit concerned because he didn't end the season healthy
and that's always a red flag. And granted he got
hurt like a week out from the season ending, but
it was a forearm strain, and forearm strains are usually
precursors to elbow problems. I was going back and I
was reading some articles last night and this morning in
preparation for this, and they described it as a mild

(25:40):
mid forearm strain and there's no concern about the UCL
or the elbow being damaged. At that point, they mostly
shut him down because the season was about to be
over and the twins were not playing for anything. It
still doesn't give me a great feeling, especially as he's
about to hit that awful birthday that I got coming
around the bend. In a couple of years myself, he'll
be thirty, and his strikeout rate is not what it

(26:01):
once was either twenty three percent, you know, it was
twenty five, twenty nine, twenty seven percent. I'm not sure
if that is something that maybe was injury based. He
had a shoulder problem earlier in the season before the
forearm popped up. So I'm a little bit concerned about
what kind of volume we can expect. You mentioned that
he had been a workhorse, not one hundred percent sure
what I would expect in terms of volume. Steamer has
one hundred and eighty two innings on him. I'd probably

(26:22):
take the under. But the real part that makes me
hard to draft him this year is I really love
this range that he's going in. For other pitchers, we
did a whole segment in Arizona and even on the
last show talking about a lot of these guys, Cam Schlitler,
Jacob Mazerowski, Chase Burns, you know, even Nickelodolo. I really
like Bieber Emmits, she and et cetera. They're all going
in that same range where Pablo Lopez is going. So

(26:45):
you're likely passing up on one of those guys who
could be this year's breakout Miserowski, Burns, Ya, Savage, et cetera.
You are passing up on one of those young guns
for Lopez who, like I said, busby thirty, shoulder, forearm problem,
strikeout rate, not going the right direction, bad team behind him.
I don't think Minnesota is a great team, and there's
been talks that they might continue to trade pieces. The

(27:07):
Pollods are just they don't spend money, so I don't
know how much you can really expect that a Pablo
Lopez in twenty twenty six.

Speaker 1 (27:14):
I think there's no doubt that you understand from the
injury history, you understand why he's fallen and the success
of what he's done. I'm not sure it's not one
hundred percent justified. I would say he is the more
likely guy of him and Joe Ryan to be traded.
Apologies if there's been something that's happened, you know, got
winter meetings around the corner. I don't want to date

(27:34):
ourselves too much on this, but I think there's a possibility.
He you know, he could be sold off and if that,
if that's the case, I don't think it's the most
ridiculous thing on the planet. He was both beneficial. I
mean in his short stint of games that he pitched
this year, again he had a sub three era. He
had a sub three era both at home and on
the road. The things that are most important to me

(27:57):
are going to be his health and hearing the help.
That's it. If you get a full clean bill of health,
I think you can jump back in. Because he had
a decrease by a little over mile per hour on
his four seen fastball, which you don't want to see,
but it didn't get hit harder. You know, his sweeper
held hitters to a one to thirty three batting average,
and the year prior it was it was two thirty nine,

(28:19):
and the expected numbers look even better. So like I
still think some of the pitch ability is there. I
think there's still some upside, but he has to be
where he's at right now. Bill of health is the
most important thing, and secondary is going to be where
does he get moved off? He is falling in drafts.
This is a very very popular name. Last season, and
this might be one of the ones that's like from

(28:40):
a production versus time miss standpoint, the production is telling
us a story that like, hey, if you get one
hundred and eighty innings out of what he did this
past year, or even if he regresses to be like
a three and a half e RA guy, he's going
to be worth more than the costs that you're putting in.
So he is falling in drafts, but maybe he's someone
you can swoop up. I don't know if you will
be super interested in the guy though. At number six,

(29:03):
this is a player that was going to hit free agency,
but then was They signed their tender contract to come
back with an ADP of one forty eight this season,
after going inside the top sixty five, he was actually
one spot higher than Pablo Lopez. It's Shota Imanaga. Imanaga,
with a three seven ERA this past year, did pitch

(29:25):
twenty five games, one hundred and forty four innings, pitched
his strikeouts they kind of cratered. At least he still
didn't walk a lot of guys, gave up a lot
more hard hit and barreled contact. But he is back
with the Cubs this year and his cost is more
than doubled down. So what do you think. Do you
think this is a justified There's no doubt that he
is absolutely cratering in drafts. Is he going to be

(29:46):
someone you're interested in?

Speaker 4 (29:47):
It?

Speaker 3 (29:47):
All?

Speaker 2 (29:48):
This price is really a reflection of the market getting
sharper than it has been over the years. Like every year,
I think players get a little bit better. He has
a sub one whip and he's going as like, you know,
the forty fifth pitcher off the board. You don't usually
see that, But the strikeouts are kind of the be
all and end all here for me. He went from
twenty five percent to twenty percent. It might surprise a
lot of people to know that Iman Nauga's already thirty two.

(30:08):
He came over when he was thirty years old, so
he's not a young guy. He's not Yamamoto or Suzaki,
young twenties, mid twenties. He's already kind of pushing it
a little bit, and if the strikeouts are already going
that way, I'm really not that interested in him. He
gave up, like you mentioned, a lot of hard contract,
a lot of hard contact.

Speaker 3 (30:25):
One point nine to.

Speaker 2 (30:25):
Three homer nine this season, one hundred and forty four innings,
gave thirty one homers. He had a four to eighty
six FIP that like, those are really startling numbers. The
stuff was already only a ninety seven went down to
ninety four. You know, they weren't chasing as much. Batters
were chasing thirty seven percent of the time last year
or thirty six now this year was thirty one. Swinging

(30:46):
strike rate went down from fifteen percent, which was an
elite number, down to eleven, which is kind of whatever.
So there's a lot of things going in the wrong
direction for show to iman Naga. Good friend of mine,
Thomas Nestico, you guys probably know him better as TJ
stats on Twitter. He was worried about Imanaga last year
heading into the season. He kind of was able to
hold it together. But I think he's holding it together

(31:08):
with string at this point, and next season it's gonna
be a pretty dark year for Imanaga, I think, or
for his fantasy managers anyway.

Speaker 1 (31:15):
And I'll tell you so a couple of interesting things.
Even Aga was worse at home. He had about a
four ERA at home, which I think concerned some people.
He lost a full mile per hour on his fastball
that at his age is actually maybe one of the
most concerning things. He lost some pretty significant wift percentages,
specifically on his split finger, which he throws over thirty
percent of the time. But all of that paired with

(31:37):
two ridiculous things on the homers that you talked about.
He gave up twenty seven of his thirty one homers
to right handed hitters. Like there, I mean, like listen,
Obviously there were more innings. There were three times as
many innings pitch against righty's than lefties, but still that
number is ridiculous against righty So he clearly has a

(31:59):
problem with his approach versus righty's. And you know, if
you look the thing that he's doing against right handers
is he is throwing. It looks like that's splitter. Even more,
that splitter is heavily against right handers and not against lefties,
which is that might be a problem. But also more
importantly here where I look at a player and I go,
is this something that's so abnormal? Is this fixable? Maybe?

(32:21):
But maybe not with the stuff declining. Of those thirty
one homers, only seven he gave up from March to June,
So that means what's the rough math, you're twenty four
homers he gave up from July through September, a ridiculous number.
He gave up nine, five and then ten between those
two months, and they obviously equated to like ridiculous overinflated

(32:46):
home run numbers. I'm just we're telling you a lot
of stuff with like, okay, so then what's the answer.
The answer might be with the declining velo a ballpark
that he doesn't pitch as well in he can't get
he can't not give up homers to right handed hitters.
I don't know if there are any anomalies, and maybe
this is a problem, and maybe he is somebody that
is just as strait avoid even at the cost of

(33:07):
how far he's fallen in the one fifties. Maybe he's
someone you still just don't want to buy into.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
I mean, look at the range around him. It's similar
to Lopez. You know, Ryan Papio is right in that range.
Spore on our live show that was the player. He
highlighted that he's targeting Drew Rasmussen going back to the
Troup this year. I've always liked Rasmusen ro Don Sandy
al Contra another year removed from So you're passing up
on a lot of goodness to take Imanaga, who is
very far from a short thing at this point.

Speaker 1 (33:32):
Yeah, twenty four. Also of those homers came off of
the four seam fastball. The other seven all came off
of the split fingers, So you know, I highlighted the
split finger a little bit, even though it didn't have
like a high batting average, but still like seven homers
off of a thirty one percent usage pitch is not good.
And then what's he doing. He's going back to the fastball,
which dudes are just they're tanking. They're tanking again, so

(33:54):
it's not great. Here's another big one. This actually I
think is the I This in the next one of
the two big biggest numerical changes between them. And if
you were an Aaron Nola guy, you're gonna have a
hard time finding him in draft, especially in the draft
boards this year, because last season he was going seventy
two before the season started on the aggregate ADP. This

(34:15):
year he is outside the top two hundred and two thirteen.
To be exact, he had a six ERA last year,
missed a ton of time, only pitched ninety four innings,
whip was way up. The expected numbers are better, but
it's still over four, which would be the worst of
his career. More barreled contact. Aaron Nola a big faller
in drafts. Buy or sell.

Speaker 3 (34:37):
I'm I'm willing to consider it.

Speaker 2 (34:40):
I'm not gonna commit to he's a target or he's not,
but the price is really really good for him. His
injuries last year, which caused him to miss some time
and perhaps contributed to the poor results. They were both
ankle injuries. As long, I don't think I'm missing anything.
It was two ankle injuries, one initial one, then he
reaggravated it. I don't think there was anything shoulder, fore arm,
elbow or anything like that. So that gives me some,

(35:03):
you know, some hope. He did kind of pick things
up in the second half of the season. There were
still some stinkers, but he ended the year with eight
innings of one run ball nine strikeouts, so he ended
on a strong note at least, and a lot of
the supporting numbers were a lot better than that. Sixth
era suggests his fit was about the same as show
Toymanaga four or five eight. I think Imanaga was four
or five seven, but the strikeouts are still about where

(35:25):
they've been.

Speaker 3 (35:26):
The command is still fairly solid.

Speaker 2 (35:29):
I think that there is room for him to bounce
back here, and at the price he only has to
be your what he's like your sixth pitcher at that point,
maybe easier with your fifth sixth pitcher. I think it's
an area where I can buy it because the guy's
going around him again. That's kind of where I go
on the evaluation. Who am I passing up to take him?
It's like Mackenzie Gore, Zach Gallen, Andrew Abbott Connolly early.

(35:53):
I can talk myself into Aaron Nola being the best
of those guys and kind of having a bit of
a bounce back season. He's done the odd ev year thing,
which I don't know if I want to read too
much into, but he's due for a good one. If
you want to add that to the pros, I will.

Speaker 1 (36:06):
Actually that was something I was going to say a goofy.
I'm just gonna list it and since twenty eighteen, here
are his eras year by year eighteen two, three, seven,
nineteen three, eight, seven, twenty three, two, eight, twenty one,
four six three, twenty twenty two. Bounce back with A three,
two five, twenty twenty three, four four, six, twenty twenty

(36:29):
four three five, seven, and this year A six. It
has been I mean, what is that like? Seven one, two, three, four, five, six,
seven is eight years of every other year and we
are on we are if you want to play that
fun game. We're on the positive year side. We're on
the two year side if you want to play that.
So sorry, continue, No, that that's mostly it.

Speaker 2 (36:47):
Like, I don't think he's gonna be somebody like when
we start making those videos five players to target for
your team.

Speaker 3 (36:52):
He won't be on my lists.

Speaker 2 (36:53):
But if he's a guy that I end up with
as my fifth or sixth pitcher, I'll be totally fine
with that. There's a chance he bounces back. He's pitching
for a good team still, so I can be talked
into it.

Speaker 1 (37:04):
Yeah, I mean, I think I don't know if I
have a take on this one outside to say that,
guess what, he is absolutely cratered in drafts. I'm a
little bit worried that we you know, we could just
be done. You know, he's getting older, things are progressing
in a bad way. He wasn't able to finish through
the year. He didn't have a single month where he
was good this past year. So I just want to
point out it's not like, oh, hey, guys, you know

(37:24):
he was like good in April and August, but he
really suck the other three. Every single month he's stunk.
The best era he had in a single month is
four eight five. And I know you could be like, well,
or doesn't mean anything, Okay, Well, he had one month
where he had like a one point zero two whip.
Every other whip was like absolutely atrocious. Wasn't good. He
was bad at home, he was bad on the road.

(37:45):
He's lost a little bit of v low, he's giving
up more barreled contact, he's starting to walk a little
bit more. Like what's the redeeming factor here across the board?
He is he did get hit a little bit more
versus some of the expected numbers. So like his curveball,
he throws two seventy four average against the expected was
two forty three. So there's some regressive things that could
be better, but at best you're getting the value of him.

(38:08):
This is a deserved player that is falling. Aaron Nola
is on the back half of what is good. And
you even said, like you said, like, you know, Conley Early,
I'd rather take the upside of a guy like Early
at this point than get a mid for his ERA
at best, Aaron Nola, and I think that's where we're at.
So he is falling and I'm buying it.

Speaker 3 (38:26):
I get it.

Speaker 2 (38:26):
The only last thing I'll say in his favor is
that September October, as much as you know, the ERA
was still five, which wasn't improvement over the rest of
the season. His FIP was three sixty and a twenty
five percent STRICO rate in September and October. So he
did finish with what was his best month, even though
it wasn't, to your point, a great month. He finished
better than he had looked throughout the year. So I

(38:47):
I'm still kind of hemming and hang on him a
little bit. But he's a fine pick where he's going,
I think, yeah, And I.

Speaker 1 (38:53):
Mean he used to just be this like really great
elite guy. Since twenty twenty, his K percentage has gotten
is never improve proved, and any single year after that
it has either gotten worse or for the last two
years it stayed the same at twenty four percent. Another
pitcher that was going inside the top one hundred last year.
This is the last of the pitchers we're going to
talk about. Maybe is kind of out of sight, out

(39:14):
of mind for a lot of people, but you want
to know what he was a guy that was seen
as like the other the five of the mount Rushmore.
You have to add an extra one of Mariner's pitchers,
and it's Bryce Miller. Bryce Miller was seen in a
really good light after a twenty twenty four where he
pitched a two nine four ERA in one hundred and
eighty winning innings with a sub one whip and one

(39:35):
hundred and seventy one strikeouts. Now kate percentage was only
like twenty four percent, but like we're looking at him,
like he is it Brian wu Is it Bryce Miller?
And when you look at the ADPs, he was going
seventy seventh in drafts last year. The single furthest drop
to two thirty three. He is almost not being draft
after a year where he had a five six eight ERA,

(39:58):
also suffered some massive injuries, only pitched ninety innings. His
k percentage dropped from twenty four to eighteen percent. He
walked more, the ERA was tanked, the whip was over
one four everything completely fell apart for Bryce Miller, so
that is why he has fallen in drafts. Do you
buy the fall on Bryce Miller?

Speaker 2 (40:17):
I understand it for sure when you're factoring in the
elbow problems. It was two separate elbow ailments this past year,
and also the fact that he is a home park merchant.
He's a safeg Field T mobile merchant throughout his career.
Home era is three thirty four. On the road, it's
four to seventy seven, which is I mean, unless it's
the playoffs and it's the game win of the Alcs
where he'll cook.

Speaker 3 (40:37):
The Blue Jays.

Speaker 2 (40:37):
Other than that, on the road, he was not very
good this past season. The strakeouts went down. I think
a lot of it can be chocked up to the injuries.
But how healthy is he going to be this upcoming
season and how comfortable am I starting him for those
sixteen or seventeen times where he's not in Seattle. I
understand the fall, and I don't think I really want
to pay it now. Like I mentioned, he performed well

(40:57):
in the playoffs, and that could be something that it's like, Okay,
he was healthy, he's fixed, now he'll be fine. There's
not a lot of strong data points. His stuff is
about average. He doesn't get a ton of swing and miss.
I'm worried about half of his starts to begin with.
I just think he's better left for somebody else. But
at his price, I could see myself similarly to Nola,
being talked into it. If it's him, or you know

(41:20):
Hurst and Waldrop, or you know a couple different guys,
Matthew Boyd, I could be talked into it, but he
is far from a target.

Speaker 3 (41:27):
Far from a target.

Speaker 1 (41:27):
Yeah, I think he might be a bounce back candidate.
If I'm being honest with you, I think there's a
little bit of like scrap and throw out the year
that may not hold. He's a tinkerer. I've actually talked
to Bryce Miller like every year for the last three years,
and every single season it's like he's doing something new,
and maybe that needs to stop at some point, because
I think you can actually also look at some of
what he was doing last season to be the problem,

(41:49):
specifically the sinker. The sinker really regressed. He was throwing
it the second most in twenty twenty four. In twenty
twenty five, you still percentages was pretty close. It came
his third most thrown pitch. But check this out year
prior to two forty eight average against his sinker this
year three twenty eight more important than just batting average

(42:12):
ninety one average exit velocity against the sinker in twenty
twenty four ninety six point one. This past year he
got absolutely sumshed on his sinker. So something's gonna have
to change there. Plus he kind of scrapped his sweeper,
had a little bit better with rate. I think that
with the ballpark factors, maybe can help elicit less barreled

(42:33):
and hard hit contact than we can up the K percentage.
But he's absolutely tanked in drafts from the previous season.
He might be someone that's on a bounce back, but
you know it's a risk and he's a good maybe
SP seven or something like that, but he has fallen
in drafts year of a year if you were not aware.
He is someone that is not from twenty twenty five

(42:53):
to twenty six, someone that is going to be someone
you're gonna remember as a player that you know I
drafted him before. Why am I not getting him this year?
Because everything's stunk? Two players left. These are hitters, These
are big names. In their space, and I think this
kind of falls into the most what are we doing
with these guys now territory. Coming in at number nine

(43:16):
on the list is one of the most popular catching
prospects who has fallen off the board. Adley Rutchman. He
was Now I have to give the caveat here, try
not to do catchers in this because NFBC absolutely overinflates catchers,
so you know that. So the ADP I'm going to
give you off of NFBC is inflated. But that's going
to tell a weird story. It's one sixty two. So

(43:38):
catchers go higher in these formats. So in a standard
catching format this year, you are probably going to see
Alley Ruchmand more outside the top two hundred. He was going,
according in single catcher ADPs last season on Fantasy Pros
before the year started, sixtieth, so that was like number two,
probably number two catcher, maybe number three in a lot
of places. Just everything fell apart. He's at a regressive

(44:00):
batting average for three straight years. He was injured. Power
numbers kind of fell off. OBP is completely tanked over
the last two seasons. He is walking and not striking
out a bunch and you actually still see some of
the underlying metrics there, but it's equating to a whole
bunch of nothing. So Adi Richmand is free this year.
He has completely fallen in drafts. Do you think it's justified?

(44:21):
Or is he someone that can bounce back?

Speaker 2 (44:24):
So I mentioned Merrill earlier as the guy I took
in my first draft of the year. Reuchmand was also
a guy.

Speaker 3 (44:29):
That I took in that draft. I was the where
is it the love to catcher? This is a two
catcher draft.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
Yeah, most of my leagues are NFBC, but it was
sorry it was a twelfth round with Rechman. I feel
like he'll probably be in that one fifty to two
hundred range and he feels like a really good bounce
back candidate. So he dealt with injuries last year of
course cost him time with the abdomen, the oblique, it
was a head injury. He was all kinds of banked
up last year, but the numbers below the surface didn't

(44:58):
really suffer. He still walked eleven percent of the time,
fifteen percent strikeout rate. The barrel rate is not amazing
a seven and a half percent, but that's what he's
been thirty eight hard hit dittoh, It's literally been that
every year of his career, thirty six to thirty eight
percent hard hit.

Speaker 3 (45:12):
So nothing changed in the bat at bald data.

Speaker 2 (45:14):
He was chasing less thirty percent, chase rate down to
twenty two, better contact rate eighty nine to ninety one
in the zone. Swinging strike rate went from six point eight,
which was already really good, down to five point four percent.
And I think something that hurt the counting stats as
a whole, and it hurt Baltimore was that they were
just injured as a team last year. They could not
stay healthy. The team was awful. They don't have pitching,

(45:34):
but that's another conversation. The offense just couldn't stay healthy.
So I think you give him a full year, you
play one hundred and twenty one hundred and thirty games,
we can see Adley bounce back, and the projections expected
Steamer has him down for seventeen homers, a two to
fifty five batting average, and a one to fifteen WRC plus.
I think if you are punting catchers, he could be
your second catcher in a two catch or format. And
even if you're punting catchers in a one catcher league,

(45:57):
which you probably should be doing.

Speaker 3 (45:58):
Anyway, you could take.

Speaker 2 (45:59):
Ali Rutchman the seventeenth round and you might end up
with a top five catcher.

Speaker 3 (46:02):
Again, would not be at all surprised.

Speaker 2 (46:04):
He's still twenty seven, still a top prospect, and I
think the Orioles are still going to be invested in him.

Speaker 1 (46:10):
Yeah, whether he's traded or he stays. I think there's
something to pay attention to the ballpark. You know, he's
a switch hitter and the right hand so the side
for right handed hitters has become a little less hitter friendly,
the left hand side has become a little bit home
run happy. He hit his best batting average was as
a right handed hitter, but it was about seventy points

(46:30):
lower than the year before. So he had under two
hundred at home. So what I'm getting at is like
the home ballpark factor as a guy that he doesn't
I mean, at least he's regressed as a guy that
puts the ball in the air and pulls it. You know,
so if he has a good launch angle, but he
lost five degrees on it this year, and he lost
I think about seven percent. He was an elite twenty
three point two percent pulled air guy in twenty twenty fours,

(46:53):
that means he got the ball in the air, pulled it,
and that would equate to good homers. This year that
was around sixteen percent and he lost his launch angle.
I think those are things you can equate to injuries
because a lot of the other bear of the stuff.
Barrel's a ball about the same, hits the ball about
the same amount, average evs the same, Like a lot
of the stuff is the same. There are a lot
of injuries out there, and I do wonder if there

(47:14):
is a little bit of ballpark and if he can
bounce back. So with that, I think in a lot
of places he's actually the fall is value, except the
name value could push him up if he's healthy. I
would just warn you that this is a player that
is falling in drafts that could skyrocket back up if
there's some positive takes on it. But I think I'm
in agreement with you that he's someone that we can

(47:36):
invest in. But there's no doubt about compared to where
he was last year, he's completely tanked. The last player
on the list. I had to bring him up because
you want to talk about year and a year out
of a player that is falling in drafts. It is
always this guy. Then he comes back up. Will he
pop back up this year? Mike Trout? Mike Trout ninetieth

(47:58):
last year, but I want to point out he was
going way later. It was like one thirty one forty.
But then there's health. Mike Trout's gonna dh things are
looking good. Me I ruin it. He ended as a
top one hundred player this year. His ADP is around
one ninety eight in draft champions. To be fair, he
did have probably the what is this the mosted bats

(48:22):
he's had this past season since twenty nineteen, twenty six homers,
couple stolen bases, stopped running after it looked like maybe
he's running more. His batting average looks like it is
completely tanked. He hit two twenty expected batting average for
the first time. To not say a better story the
year before had he only hit two twenty with an

(48:43):
expected of two seventy. This year, I'm sorry, I hit
two thirty two with an expected batting average about the same.
More importantly than anything else, strikeouts are ridiculous. Thirty two
percent that completely fell apart. So Mike Trout clearly has
fallen in drafts. I'm more interested. Do you think he
is to rise again to a big, great degree if
we are sold that you know more dhing he's healthy?

(49:05):
Or are we finally done with Mike Trout.

Speaker 2 (49:08):
So I was going through some tweets of mine and
searching names just to see what I said about players
last year and stuff, and Mike Trout. I put in
Mike Trout's name last night just to see and it
was a in reply to a Ryan Bloomfield tweet about
how Mike Trout had gotten more expensive from October to November,
and I replied with that classic made it through November.
Healthy bump for Mike Trout. And I think it's because

(49:28):
everybody wants to draft Mike Trout in the back of
their mind. Mike Trout is a Hall of Famer. He's
a superstar player in his peak, one of the best
players ever. YadA, YadA, YadA. People want to draft those players.
It's why you'll see guys go higher on Garrett Cole
than they should and Clayton Kershaw every year, Sure's or
whoever it is. And Trout is exactly that same type
of player where you want him to have one more

(49:48):
season maybe he's got one more in the tank, but
I don't think he does anymore. And I've been beating
that drum the last couple of years off Mike Trout
probably has one more year. This year he stayed healthy
five hundred and fifty six played appearances, and on the
Player Raider he was right beside Austin Hayes, who had
one hundred and fifty fewer played appearances than him, and
I think that kind of tells the whole story. He
strikes out thirty two percent of the time. The twenty

(50:10):
six home runs are nice, but that kind of strikeout
rate is unbelievable. And I think he's completely changed as
a hitter in his quote unquote older age. He sold
out for power more as he got older. But also
the swing rate is really low at this point, thirty
eight percent swing rate. It's the fifth lowest in all
of baseball. I don't know who he is as a
hitter anymore, and I'm not sure that he knows who

(50:31):
he is as a hitter anymore. I think he can
still hit twenty homers, but it'll come with a low
batting average in a bad lineup, and like you mentioned,
people will still want to push him up. All it
takes is one guy in every room to believe in
Mike Trout and to push him up a round or
two past ADP And at this stage in the game,
people still probably there's probably one guy in every room
who's like, Mike Trout. You know what I'm gonna do it.

Speaker 3 (50:51):
This is the game.

Speaker 1 (50:52):
I'm right here, Joe, I'm right here. I was the
guy last year. But let me point out something. He
return tarned value on the big case that I was
making when he was going in the one fifties, the
one forties and stuff like that. It's hard to argue
twenty six homers. I mean, I guess maybe I need
to take that backtrack a little bit, like the batting

(51:13):
average didn't really necessarily help. But sixty four runs, seventy
three rbi, twenty six homers. He played games like I
guess the theory of my initial take was kind of there.
But you mentioned the profile of who he is has
really changed. And the biggest thing I can tell, because
I agree with you that he's like selling out for
more power, is he became It's funny his run value

(51:35):
against like fastballs, forcing fastballs specifically is uniquely high. It
was a fifteen run value that's like elite in baseball.
It's because of what he looks like, what he's doing.
It looks like he is attempting to try to hit
some of this secondary stuff and it's only working off
of fastballs. Either all of his homers are coming off

(51:56):
of fastballs, but also his K percentage, so maybe this
makes more. I'm saying it hit a thirty four percent
K percentage against forcing fastballs for perspective, sixteen percent the
year prior. So I think what it looks like is
he is becoming a reactionary fastball hitter where the k's
are going higher. He is crushing and making you know,
content making not just contact, but he's making impact off

(52:20):
of fastballs. But it's done in this really poor way
where he's striking out more, losing batting average because I
think he is attempting to sell out for some of
the secondary stuff. He had an expected batting average thirty
points higher against breaking pitches and fifty points higher against
off speed, so like he's underperforming against those pitches, and
I think that is kind of being viewed in this

(52:42):
reactionary fastball space. So all of that is just like
there's a bunch of conjecture that I'm throwing out here. Listen,
he has changed as a hitter. He's striking out a
lot more. The fastball, the breaking pitch stuff looks weird.
He doesn't stay healthy, he doesn't run. There's still big,
impactful bat that's floating out there. But for us to
predict that it's any more than twenty five homers with
no stolen bases seventy five to seventy five, it's silly.

(53:05):
The fall makes sense of where he is. I just
don't think he's going to rise again. The Mic Trout rising,
I think ends this year. We are done with him
officially going low and drop and flying up boards. That
is officially done. He does belong down here. He has
fallen in drafts, and do you think it's deserved? Love
to hear your Mic Trout takes in the comments below.
Who else is falling in drafts that maybe you don't

(53:27):
buy or that you think needs to fall a whole
bunch more? And what was the one on this that
hits you the hardest? You can drop comments below on YouTube.
We'd love to see it, We'd love to react to it.
As these ten players are falling in drafts? What do
you guys think? Make sure you guys are subscribe to
the channel YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB. Make
sure you check out all the tools as well, and

(53:49):
we want you guys to be involved because the Fantasy
Pros MLB channel is ready to start locking in. We
got the Twitch channel we're leading off is going to
be again this year. Twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros
and you can join the on discord. MLB is going
to be popping off, So make sure you're their Fantasypros
dot com slash chat completely free. Get in there, hang
out with us. We'd love to have you. That is
going to do it for the episode. Thank you guys

(54:10):
so much for hanging out with us. For Joe Rico,
I'm Chris Welsh. We'll talk to you next time right
here on Fantasy Pros.

Speaker 4 (54:15):
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
If you love the show, the best freeway to support
us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts
or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at
Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube
dot com. Slash fantasy pros, MLB

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