Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Welcome to the Merlin Talks Money Market rapp where we
talk about the biggest moves in Marcus this week and
was driving them. I'm joined Stepics, senior report and author
of the award winning Money Distilled newsletter, and joining me
while Merrin is out is Morewene conyum more whenas co
editor of the Bloomberg Markets Today blog in London and
writes about UK assets, economics and markets more generally. Moreena,
(00:40):
thank you so much for joining us again, thank you
having me well Whenna, thanks for joining me. Now we're
recording this in the morning the July eighth Wednesday, so
we tell you listen to this. Things may have changed,
but hopefully the themes that we discuss are fairly long running.
So today we're going to talk about the on again,
off again Seize finan I ran, the EA bubble has
(01:01):
bossed thanks to Admitter's CEO, and what all of this
means for UK markets and your money. The cease fire
has been on again and then off again, and at
the moment it's off again. I'm sure that we may
see fluctuations in that status over the common days, but
for no, that's certainly. Can I put the wend up
(01:24):
the market a bit?
Speaker 1 (01:25):
It has.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
We've seen quite a big escalation in bond yields thanks
to oil price spike following comments from US President Donald
Trump as far as he is concerncyes fires over. Of course,
there may well be a lot of further developments on
that topic.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
But we are seeing some.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Of the bond rally, you know, really pulling back. Bonds
are falling in Europe and particularly the UK as those
inflation concerns start to creep back into people's minds, and
we're seeing that in central bank bets as well. Those
hiking bets are being added to. Today, still only pricing
(02:05):
in at the moment one hike from the Bank of
England this year, but there's about one in three chances
now that there might be a second one, and it's
up quite considerably from where we were earlier in the week.
So at the moment that's the trajectory. But I think
what it really shows is that there is still a
lot of volatility and a lot of uncertainty, and i'd
(02:25):
say for the last month or so, the market has
started to be pricing in a degree of stability, thinking
this ceasefire is going to hold and that the second
half of the year would be one of lower oil
prices and improven We're still not back where we were,
but I think it thinks they are a lot less
(02:47):
settled than perhaps had started to be deemed the case.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
It's interesting because, I mean, I think the thing that's
always struck me, struck me since this began is that
on the wine hidh and it's not always it's not
a good idea to second guess the market, but at
the same time, the level of complacency and sort of
faith that this would all kind of come out in
(03:12):
the wash. I mean, the fact that oil prices were
down to where they were at the start at it's
conflict back at the end of February. I mean, I'm
sure that this is just another phase in the ongoing
kind of saga, and it will be all sunching and
roses again at some point. But I guess it's this
point about how markets really haven't considered the potential downside here,
(03:38):
although maybe getting a bit too comfortable with the idea
that it was all going to be okay, and hence
they kind of slightly kind of the big reaction to
today at it not being it's actually not all over.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, absolutely, I mean I think there's perhaps an element
of complacency, as you say, I think there was also
an element of the we've had a few weeks of
things seeing seeming steadier, but that followed, you know, months
of quite extreme volatility with quite big swings on every comment,
and actually that those moves got smaller, and whilst we
(04:17):
have seen a sizeable reaction today, it's nothing compared to
at the beginning of the war. So I think markets
they've permanently priced in a certain degree of volatility now,
but very interesting to see. I think where we go
from here now that uncertainty question is back in there
(04:37):
and in other areas of markets of course, so we
are seeing bigger fundamental shifts which are also impacting some
of the moves. So inequities that we're seeing beyond the
sort of or again off again Iran wre situation.
Speaker 2 (04:52):
Well, because this is also the EI bubble story, seems
to be a know up Elsie can't time these things,
is they had to tell there does seem to have
been a bit of a sentiment tipping point. I mean,
I don't know what you think, but I think meta,
So like the Facebook boss last week coming out and
(05:15):
saying effectively that are not even to be fair, they
hinted at it. They said, Okay, so we're building all
this capacity in order to create an AI, but actually
we might end up just renting it out to other
people because you know, that'll make us some money in
the meantime. And you get the sense that markets took
(05:35):
that to mean, way, I'm in it, you know, because
the thing the bow gay Man everyone's waiting for is
we've built too much of this stuff and now we
need to monetize it. And if Meta are turned around
already and saying, okay, we're building all this stuff, but
effectively we're not going to need it, so we rented
to someone else. I think it's sort of like appears
to have made people in the market think twice about
(05:56):
their exposure to semiconductors and chipman you factor of us,
I mean, Jane, and that is kind of sort of
fear somebody.
Speaker 3 (06:05):
Yeah. I think there's definitely been a bit of a
reassessment and people looking along with supply chain. So where
we'd seen a lot of the focus those high growth
sort of chip making stocks, the data centers that has
been on such a long rally. I think the question
was always how far can this go? And maybe we're
(06:26):
starting to get a bit of that answer. We still
have days of rallies, but we are increasingly seeing the
sort of reversal. We're seeing a pivot in trading patterns
and people looking for value elsewhere. So it's still in
the tech space, but who stands to benefit from other
(06:46):
parts of the AI trade and some of the sort
of more traditional tech companies even you know, seeing Ali
barbars oring in China rather than Samsung, and we are
seeing a shift, I think, and whether that's going to
continue in a linear fashion or we're going to see
a bit of back and forth. But I do think
there's definitely been rotation starting and some sentiment changing, and
(07:12):
that is obviously weighing on global equities because it's been
where so much.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Of the power has been.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
There are pockets which can be resilient to that, and
that the UK is one of them.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
We don't have much exposure to tech.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
We've been missing out quite a lot, but on days
where you see still off. In fact, the last two
days one of the worst performing sectors in Europe has
been technology and the UK, particularly the foots one hundred
is only very slightly exposed to that with some sort
of funds, meaning that even if it falls with the
(07:47):
global broader sentiment, it's actually been outperforming peers.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
It's also, of course supported.
Speaker 3 (07:53):
By some fairly heavy weight oil stocks like BP and Shell,
so the Iran conflict escalation or potential escalation certainly plays
into its hands as well there. But it's certainly a
time i'd say, where people would be wanting to look
at diversifying, and diversifying is paying off and not having
(08:14):
all of your eggs in one very specific type of
tech basket.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Yeah, arguably, I guess in this context, the Yuki is
a defensive market. Whereas you know, if you're looking for
something to opposite your your South Korean costs exposure, which
has been up and down like a yo yo, because
it's basically two stocks, I guess kind of the UK
looks more appealing to people. The other big thing this
(08:48):
week was the bed for easy Jet, which is obviously
a big name consumer brand, you know, even if it's
not the largest company and the food see so a
private equity company that's come along and decided that bed
for this and it seems to be going through and
(09:09):
I guess the question is is it going to be
a point at which, you know, this sale off of
the UK as a whole kind of comes to some
sort of end, or we're going to see the IPO
pipeline pick up. Because someone actually put it very well
on the Ft the it's a ratio of twenty seven
to one in terms of the value of stuff vanation
(09:30):
from the market and the value of things coming in
to replace it are then hence I so I was
reading that perhaps in the next six months, in the
second half of the year, as long as there's a
bit less volatility, we make it a few more additions,
you know, in the IPO pipeline. But I guess if
if what we're seeing right now continues, that make it
(09:52):
pushed back yet again.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:53):
I mean, there are a couple of companies that have
been discussed as potentially IPA can that I think Virgin
Active was one of them. But overall, you know, we've
seen two trends. One is UK companies being acquired because
to our point about the foots generally underperforming in a way,
they are so much cheaper, so they are seen as
(10:15):
good value when they're very attractive to overseas buyers. Unfortunately,
that also means that when companies are looking at where
which market they're going to list in, they potentially see
more potential gains from listing in the US. And I think,
you know, when you look at actual performance, that can
vary because you can certainly be a bigfish in a
(10:38):
small pond, or you can potentially be overlooked. But there's
a lot more investor activity. One interesting thing I think
it was last week was Robin Hood CEO was talking
about trying to get people in the UK.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
It's a retail.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Investment more and you know that could help potentially if
there's more of an investment culture in the UK. At
the moment, UK companies aren't even owned predominantly, you know,
by UK holders, So I don't think we're going to
see a massive shift in that.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
But of course, if we see a.
Speaker 3 (11:10):
Fundamental change in evaluation ratios, then we might see less
M and A and more listings here.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Yeah, I mean I suppose that's the thing, because I mean,
the Robin Hood thing is interesting because the FCA has
relaxed the rules about financial advice so in order to
make it more feasible to give beginner investors the kind
of very basic stuff that you know, people in this office,
you know, personal financial others right about all the time.
(11:40):
But the companies themselves are not allowed to see that
to people because it's sort of like it has been
deemed as being too much like personal advice by the
regulatory regime. But that is getting to relax. So we
interesting to see if that can put a dent in
the kind of UK investors kind of you know locked,
and to see if a law I still think tax
(12:02):
stuff with body help.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
It was about I was about to say it is
a lot easier well certainly taxation wise to buy foreign
docks to the UK stock markets detriment you know, things
like capital gain sacks do. That's been something that's been
discussed and I think that will probably continue to be
in the conversation. If the government, whoever is leading it,
(12:26):
want to continue this push to make us a nation
of investors not just savers, that there's going to have
to be some more sort of attractive incentives. So certainly
people don't want to feel financially penalized for investing in
UK companies instead of foreign wants.
Speaker 2 (12:42):
Yeah, can they get the distant duty. But there is
one osade we were discussing just before you came on
to the coincident and the activity from outsied in the UK,
and that's that it may be responsible for the pond
being surprisingly strong this year.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
It has been suggested that it's at least helping. The
pound is actually I was just checking that the third
best performing major currency so far this year, which is
quite surprising when you consider that the dollar has benefited
from the US Iran war, which would normally weigh heavily
(13:23):
than the pound. It's weighed on all peers. But also
we've had this sort of domestic political turmoil. I mean,
our Prime minister has just resigned. As yet the successor
is not absolutely set in stone and what they will
do is quite largely unknown, which when you look back
over the last few years at how the pound has
(13:44):
suffered as a result of economic uncertainty, concerns about what
Rachel Reaves was going to do, even though she set
out her plans, it's quite surprising that it's been unbelievably unruffled.
One of the suggestions is actually that there's a lot
of inflows as a result of foreign companies investing in
(14:07):
UK assets, particularly company takeovers. They're both attractive for that,
but it is supposive of the currency too.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Okay, so if we get the stock market working again,
we may have to contend with a week er pound. Okay,
I think I think that's a price that I'm willing
to pay. Thanks very much more when I really appreciate
your time. As always, thank you, thanks for listening. This
week's Marlton Talks Money Markets Wrap. If you like a show,
rate the view and subscribe. But if you listen to
(14:36):
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x Man's at merin sw and join Underscore Stepic. The
episode was produced by Summer, Sadi and Moses and questions
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